使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Essex Property Trust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions and beliefs as well as information available to the company at this time.
大家好,歡迎參加艾塞克斯地產信託2025年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位,今天的會議正在錄影。本次電話會議中有關預期營運績效和其他未來事件的聲明均為前瞻性聲明,涉及風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述是根據公司目前的預期、假設和信念以及公司目前可獲得的資訊作出的。
A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Further information about these risks can be found on the company's filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Angela Kleiman, President and Chief Executive Officer for Essex Property Trust. Thank you. You may begin.
許多因素可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。有關這些風險的更多信息,請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。現在,我很榮幸地向大家介紹主持人,埃塞克斯地產信託公司總裁兼首席執行官安吉拉·克萊曼女士。謝謝。你可以開始了。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning. Welcome to Essex's fourth-quarter earnings call. Barb Pak will follow with prepared remarks, and Roland Burns is here for Q&A. Today, I will cover highlights of our fourth-quarter and full year performance for 2025, provide our outlook for 2026 and conclude with an update on the transaction market. 2025 played out generally in line with our initial macro forecast for the US with job growth moderating throughout the year.
早安.歡迎參加艾塞克斯郡第四季財報電話會議。Barb Pak 將隨後發表準備好的講話,Roland Burns 將在此進行問答環節。今天,我將重點介紹我們2025年第四季和全年的業績,展望2026年,並最後更新交易市場狀況。 2025年的整體情況與我們最初對美國宏觀經濟的預測基本一致,就業成長在全年有所放緩。
Within this environment, we achieved full year same-store revenue growth at the high end and FFO per share growth above the midpoint of our guidance range. I'm particularly pleased with the well-coordinated efforts between our property operations and corporate teams to drive results, especially in other income growth and improving delinquency recovery to near pre-COVID levels.
在這種環境下,我們實現了全年同店營收成長達到預期上限,每股 FFO 成長也高於預期範圍的中點。我特別滿意我們的物業營運團隊和公司團隊之間協調一致的努力,以推動業績成長,尤其是在其他收入成長和將拖欠款項回收率提高到接近新冠疫情前水準方面。
From a market perspective, two key factors contributed to our performance in 2025. First, Northern California outperformed expectations as a result of expansion in the technology sector, favorable migration trends and limited housing supply. Second, rent growth across most Essex markets outperformed the US average, demonstrating the significant advantage of limited housing supply even in a soft employment environment. Turning to the fourth-quarter property operations.
從市場角度來看,兩個關鍵因素促成了我們在 2025 年的表現。首先,由於科技業的擴張、有利的人口遷移趨勢和有限的住房供應,北加州的表現超出了預期。其次,埃塞克斯郡大部分地區的租金增長超過了美國平均水平,這表明即使在就業環境疲軟的情況下,有限的住房供應也具有顯著優勢。接下來談談第四季的物業營運情況。
The results were generally consistent with our expectations with 1.9% blended lease rate growth in the fourth-quarter. Occupancy increased by 20 basis points sequentially to 96.3% and concessions averaged approximately one week, which is typical for this period. Within the portfolio, Los Angeles delivered the best occupancy improvement, increasing 70 basis points sequentially, a good indication that this market continues to progress towards stabilization.
第四季綜合租賃率成長1.9%,結果與我們的預期基本一致。入住率較上季上升 20 個基點至 96.3%,優惠期平均約為一周,在該時期屬於正常情況。在所有投資組合中,洛杉磯的入住率提升幅度最大,環比增長了 70 個基點,這很好地表明該市場正繼續朝著穩定方向發展。
As for regional performance, Northern California was our best region followed by Seattle then Southern California. Moving on to our 2026 outlook. Consensus expectations for the broader US point to slow but stable economic growth. Further, employment trends are expected to remain consistent with what we have seen recently with major employers maintaining a cautious approach to hiring.
就區域業績而言,北加州是我們表現最好的地區,其次是西雅圖,然後是南加州。接下來展望2026年。市場普遍預期美國經濟將緩慢但穩定成長。此外,就業趨勢預計將與我們最近看到的趨勢保持一致,主要雇主在招聘方面仍將保持謹慎的態度。
Against this backdrop, our base case assumes the current level of demand continues in 2026. On the supply side, we forecast total new housing supply to decline by approximately 20% year-over-year. Accordingly, we anticipate steady West Coast fundamentals to deliver solid blended rent growth above the US average and at a level comparable to 2025 with the Essex markets to be led by Northern California, followed by Seattle and lastly, Southern California.
在此背景下,我們的基本假設是,目前的需求水準將在 2026 年繼續維持。在供應方面,我們預測新房屋供應總量將年減約 20%。因此,我們預計西海岸基本面穩定,將帶來高於美國平均水平的穩健綜合租金增長,並達到與 2025 年相當的水平,其中埃塞克斯市場將以北加州為主導,其次是西雅圖,最後是南加州。
In terms of scenarios, local uncertainty continues to weigh on the economy and job growth and represents the primary driver of low end of our guidance range. This uncertainty has contributed to a measured hiring environment, which has tempered near-term acceleration in demand. On the other hand, we see a path to the high end of our guidance range if hiring trends improve modestly.
就各種情境而言,局部地區的不確定性持續對經濟和就業成長構成壓力,也是我們預期範圍下限的主要驅動因素。這種不確定性導致了較為謹慎的招募環境,從而抑制了近期需求的加速成長。另一方面,如果招聘趨勢略有改善,我們認為有希望達到我們預期範圍的高端。
Given historically low levels of new housing supply across our markets, even a small inflection in demand could have an outsized impact on fundamentals. While broader expectations call for mute hiring internationally, we believe Northern regions are better positioned. Activities in the technology sector remains constructive with companies expanding office footprints and investments in artificial intelligence continuing.
鑑於我們各個市場的新房屋供應量處於歷史低點,即使需求出現小幅波動,也可能對基本面產生巨大影響。儘管普遍預期國際招聘將趨於溫和,但我們認為北方地區的情況較好。科技業的活動仍保持積極態勢,各公司不斷擴大辦公室規模,對人工智慧的投資也持續進行。
In addition, these markets should continue to benefit from ongoing return to office enforcements. In summary, the favorable supply backdrop across West Coast multifamily markets combined with the continued recovery in Northern California, reinforces our outlook for our markets to outperform over the long term. Turning to the investment market.
此外,這些市場應該會繼續受益於持續的復工復產執法行動。總而言之,西海岸多戶住宅市場的良好供應環境,加上北加州的持續復甦,強化了我們對市場長期表現優異的期望。轉向投資市場。
Activities in our market remains healthy with $12.6 billion of non-portfolio institutional multifamily transactions in 2025, a substantial increase of 43% compared to 2024. Improving operating fundamentals and minimal forward-looking supply deliveries led to a significant sentiment shift to the West Coast, resulting in deeper bidder pools and cap rate compression, especially in Northern California and Seattle.
我們的市場活動依然健康,2025 年非投資組合機構多戶住宅交易將達到 126 億美元,比 2024 年大幅成長 43%。營運基本面的改善和極少的預期供應交付導致市場情緒向西海岸發生重大轉變,從而擴大了競標者範圍,並壓縮了資本化率,尤其是在北加州和西雅圖。
Generally, cap rates for the highly sought after submarkets, which represents approximately 1/3 of the total deal volume occurred in the low 4% range and cap rates for the remaining 2/3 occurred in the mid-4% range. Lastly, Essex has been the largest investor in Northern California over the past two years. With the majority of our acquisitions transacted ahead of the CapEx compression, resulting in significant NAV appreciation.
一般來說,備受追捧的子市場(約佔總交易量的 1/3)的資本化率在 4% 左右,而其餘 2/3 的子市場的資本化率在 4% 左右。最後,艾塞克斯在過去兩年一直是北加州最大的投資者。由於我們的大部分收購交易都在資本支出壓縮之前完成,因此淨資產值大幅提升。
Looking forward to 2026, we will continue to evaluate all opportunities and allocate capital with a disciplined focus on creating shareholder value.
展望2026年,我們將繼續評估所有機會,並有條不紊地分配資本,專注於創造股東價值。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Barb.
這樣,我就把電話交給芭芭拉了。
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thanks, Angela. Today, I will briefly discuss 2025 results, the key components to our 2026 guidance, followed by comments on funding needs and the balance sheet. We are pleased with our fourth-quarter and full-year results as we were able to achieve same property revenue growth of 3.3%, which was at the high end of our most recent guidance range and 30 basis points ahead of our original projections for the year.
謝謝你,安吉拉。今天,我將簡要討論 2025 年的業績、2026 年業績指引的關鍵組成部分,然後對資金需求和資產負債表發表評論。我們對第四季度和全年的業績感到滿意,因為我們實現了 3.3% 的同店物業收入增長,這處於我們最近一次指導範圍的高端,比我們最初的年度預測高出 30 個基點。
The outperformance in the fourth-quarter was driven by lower concessions, higher occupancy and other income. Turning to the key drivers of our 2026 outlook. The components of our full year same property revenue midpoint of 2.4% is outlined on the chart on page S-16.1 of the supplemental. There are three key drivers of revenue growth this year.
第四季業績優異主要得益於優惠減少、入住率提高以及其他收入增加。接下來,讓我們來看看2026年展望的關鍵驅動因素。我們全年同店收入中點 2.4% 的組成部分在補充資料 S-16.1 頁的圖表中列出。今年營收成長主要受三大因素驅動。
First, as anticipated, our earn-in based on our 2025 results will contribute 85 basis points to growth. Second, our guidance assumes a blended lease rate growth of 2.5% at the midpoint. As Angela noted, our outlook for market rent growth is based on tempered job growth, which is partially offset by a meaningful reduction in new supply.
首先,正如預期的那樣,根據我們 2025 年的業績,我們的收益將為成長貢獻 85 個基點。其次,我們的預測假設綜合租賃率成長率中位數為 2.5%。正如安吉拉指出的那樣,我們對市場租金成長的預期是基於就業成長放緩,但這部分被新增供應量的大幅減少所抵消。
As such, this should allow us to achieve similar blended net effective rent growth as last year. And third, we expect 30 basis points contribution from other income. Moving to operating expenses. We forecast 3% same property expense growth at the midpoint, which is the lowest rate of expense growth we have seen in several years. There are a couple of factors contributing to this outcome.
因此,這應該能讓我們實現與去年類似的綜合淨有效租金成長。第三,我們預期其他收入將貢獻 30 個基點。接下來是營運費用。我們預測同業支出成長率中位數為 3%,這是我們近年來看到的最低支出成長率。造成這種結果的原因有兩個。
First, we expect controllable expenses to increase around 2%, which reflects the continued benefits of our operating model. Second, we expect insurance costs to be down around 5% on a year-over-year basis as the property insurance market has continued to improve over the past year. These benefits will be partially offset by increases in utilities and property taxes.
首先,我們預期可控費用將成長約 2%,這反映了我們營運模式的持續效益。其次,由於財產保險市場在過去一年中持續改善,我們預計保險成本將年減約 5%。這些收益將被公用事業費和房產稅的上漲部分抵消。
As a result, same-property NOI growth is forecasted to increase 2.1% at the mid-point. As for 2026 core FFO per share, we expect growth to be flat on a year-over-year basis. The drivers of our forecasts are illustrated on S-16.2 of the supplemental. While we expect solid top line performance and growth in net operating income, it is being offset by recent and expected redemptions within our structured finance portfolio, which are contributing to a 1.8% headwind to growth.
因此,預計同物業淨營業收入成長率中位數為 2.1%。至於 2026 年核心每股 FFO,我們預計年成長將持平。我們的預測驅動因素在補充資料的 S-16.2 中進行了說明。雖然我們預計營收將保持穩健成長,淨營業收入也將成長,但近期和預期結構性融資組合中的贖回抵消了這一成長,導致成長面臨 1.8% 的阻力。
This reduction to FFO reflects a conservative modeling approach, which excludes any redemption proceeds and minimal income from the 2026 maturities. We expect 2026 to be the final year of structured finance-related headwinds due to the substantial reduction in the size of this book over the past several years. We are pleased to have strategically reallocated redemption proceeds into higher growth fee simple acquisitions in Northern California, which provides better risk-adjusted returns.
FFO 的減少反映了一種保守的建模方法,該方法不包括任何贖回收益和 2026 年到期的最低收入。由於過去幾年結構性融資規模大幅縮減,我們預期 2026 年將是結構性融資相關不利因素的最後一年。我們很高興將贖回所得款項策略性地重新分配到北加州成長潛力更大的永久產權收購項目中,從而獲得更好的風險調整後收益。
Lastly, a few comments on the balance sheet. We are well positioned from a funding perspective as our free cash flow covers our dividend and all planned capital expenditures and development plans for the year. In addition, our finance team has done a great job proactively reducing our near-term maturity risk, with a portion of our 2026 maturities accounted for via the bond offering we did in December. With strong credit metrics over $1.7 billion in liquidity and ample sources of capital available, the company is well positioned.
最後,我想對資產負債表做一些說明。從資金角度來看,我們的狀況良好,因為我們的自由現金流足以支付股息以及本年度所有計劃的資本支出和發展計劃。此外,我們的財務團隊在積極降低近期到期風險方面做得非常出色,我們已透過 12 月發行的債券解決了 2026 年到期債務的一部分問題。該公司擁有強勁的信貸指標、超過 17 億美元的流動資金和充足的可用資金來源,並處於有利地位。
I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions.
現在我將把電話轉回給接線員,以便他們回答問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.
(操作員說明)傑米·費爾德曼,富國銀行。
Jamie Feldman - Analyst
Jamie Feldman - Analyst
Great. Maybe just -- I mean there's been so much movement in the tech market in the last couple of weeks. As you think about demand for your assets, especially in Northern California, I mean what are your latest thoughts on what we should be watching in terms of where the risk is, where the growth is? And what are you seeing on the ground in terms of changes? And I guess we could ask the same question about Seattle.
偉大的。或許只是──我的意思是,過去幾週科技市場波動太大了。當您考慮對您資產的需求時,尤其是在北加州,我的意思是,您最近有什麼想法,我們應該關注哪些方面,例如風險在哪裡,增長點在哪裡?那麼,您在實際情況中看到了哪些變化?我想我們也可以對西雅圖提出同樣的問題。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie, thanks for your question. Northern California is in a very interesting position at this point in time because we had talked about the potential recovery and it's finally starting to take hold. So it's an exciting time for us from that perspective. And in terms of -- we're watching a couple of things. I think it's fair to acknowledge that the jobs environment broadly across the US has been soft, and that relates to my comment on Seattle in a second.
傑米,謝謝你的提問。目前北加州的情況非常有趣,因為我們之前討論過經濟復甦的可能性,現在復甦終於開始顯現成效了。所以從這個角度來看,這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的時刻。至於──我們正在關注幾件事。我認為,必須承認,美國整體就業環境一直疲軟,這一點與我稍後對西雅圖的評論有關。
But in Northern California, it's done fine. And we look at a couple of things, job openings of the top 20 tech companies. And from that perspective, it's done well in that when we looked at 2025, it ticked up above pre-COVID levels around the second-quarter. But then if we treat it in the fourth-quarter. Though it's not too inconsistent from a seasonal norm.
但在北加州,情況卻很好。讓我們來看看兩件事,一是排名前 20 的科技公司的招募資訊。從這個角度來看,它的表現不錯,因為當我們展望 2025 年時,它在第二季度左右就超過了新冠疫情前的水平。但如果我們在第四季度處理它的話。雖然這與季節性正常情況並沒有太大出入。
But it is an indication that this market is not robust when it comes to jobs, but it is stable and it's doing fine. And so with that backdrop, when we look forward, we are seeing a couple of activities that gives us encouragement that this area is going to continue to improve. And when we look at, for example, VC funding in the fourth-quarter, it's at the highest level for over four-years, and it increased by 91%.
但這表明,就就業而言,這個市場並不強勁,但它很穩定,而且運作良好。因此,在這樣的背景下,展望未來,我們看到一些活動讓我們感到鼓舞,並相信這一領域將會繼續改善。例如,當我們看一下第四季度的創投資金時,會發現它達到了四年多來的最高水平,成長了 91%。
So almost doubled quarter-over-quarter. And over 65% of that spending is in the Bay Area. Now that doesn't mean that there's going to be job acceleration tomorrow, but it is a great sign of growth to come. And when we look at office absorption, another indicator, we're seeing positive absorption for the first time in all three major markets in our northern region, San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle.
所以季度環比成長幾乎翻了一番。其中超過 65% 的支出發生在舊金山灣區。但這並不意味著明天就業市場就會加速成長,但這確實是未來經濟成長的好兆頭。當我們觀察辦公大樓吸收量這項指標時,我們發現,在我們北部地區的三大主要市場——舊金山、聖荷西和西雅圖——首次出現了正吸收量。
So that's the backdrop. In Seattle, I have to acknowledge that in the fourth-quarter, it was soft. It performed -- they did not achieve the expectations that we had planned in terms of the rent growth and the lease numbers. We had several corporate announcements in terms of layoffs. But having said that, looking forward in Seattle, we still like the fundamentals. Supply is down by 30% in that market.
這就是背景情況。我必須承認,西雅圖隊在第四季的表現比較疲軟。雖然表現不佳,但就租金成長和租賃數量而言,他們並沒有達到我們預期的目標。該公司發布了幾項裁員公告。但即便如此,展望西雅圖的未來,我們仍看好其基本面。該市場供應量下降了30%。
And other than in addition to the positive office absorption, we're also seeing additional leasing activities with -- by OpenAI. They quadrupled their space in Seattle. And so with -- and additionally, we have return to office tailwind in Seattle. Amazon starts enforcing return to office in January, Microsoft starts return to office in Q1. So there's a path to the high end of our range.
除了積極的辦公大樓吸收量之外,我們還看到 OpenAI 帶來了額外的租賃活動。他們在西雅圖的辦公空間擴大了四倍。因此,西雅圖也迎來了重返辦公室的順風。亞馬遜將於1月開始強制員工返回辦公室,微軟將於第一季開始強制員工返回辦公室。所以,這是一條通往我們產品系列高端產品的途徑。
And I just want to note that with the backdrop of the employment landscape, there is an element of unpredictability with that because it's highly influenced by public policy and public policy so far has tempered job growth. And so that's an environment which we are in, and we do have to be sensitive to that.
我只想指出,在當前的就業情況背景下,存在著一定的不可預測性,因為它很大程度上受到公共政策的影響,而到目前為止,公共政策抑制了就業成長。所以,這就是我們所處的環境,我們必須對此保持敏感。
Jamie Feldman - Analyst
Jamie Feldman - Analyst
Okay. And then can you talk about what you're thinking on new and renewal blends for the year?
好的。那麼,您能否談談您對今年新推出的和更新的混合配方有什麼想法?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, of course. So we're assuming that our blends at this point is going to come in similar to 2025 at about 2.5%. And that's because, as I mentioned earlier, we're assuming that demand is generally flat going forward. So what that means in renewal is that -- and I'll give you a range because that's probably more relevant because different markets behave differently. So under the new leases, we're assuming somewhere around flat to 2% and the renewals around 3% to 4% for the year. So not too different from last year.
是的當然。因此,我們假設目前我們的混合比例將與 2025 年類似,約為 2.5%。這是因為,正如我之前提到的,我們假設未來需求將總體上保持穩定。所以,續約的意義在於——我會給出一個範圍,因為這可能更相關,因為不同的市場表現不同。因此,根據新的租賃協議,我們假設年租金漲幅在 2% 左右,續租漲幅約為 3% 到 4%。所以和去年差異不大。
Operator
Operator
Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.
Nick Yulico,加拿大豐業銀行。
Nicholas Yulico - Analyst
Nicholas Yulico - Analyst
I guess, first off, I just wanted to ask about Los Angeles. You talked about occupancy picking up there in the fourth-quarter. Where is that market now in terms of where you're hoping it to be on occupancy and to be able to drive rental pricing a little bit better this year. Maybe you can just talk a little bit more about how you're expecting LA to perform this year.
我想,首先,我只是想問關於洛杉磯的情況。你提到那裡的入住率在第四季有所上升。就入住率而言,目前的市場狀況如何?您希望今年能夠更好地推動租金上漲。或許您可以再多談談您對洛杉磯今年表現的預期。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Nick, yes, on LA, what we've seen is a steady increase or improvement in occupancy. So that's good, especially -- we all know that the jobs environment has been quite soft. And where we are today, if you look at economic occupancy, which is the financial occupancy we report less than delinquency. In the fourth-quarter, this market sits at 94.7%. So we're just so close to stabilization of 95%.
尼克,是的,在洛杉磯,我們看到的是入住率穩定上升或改善。所以這是好事,尤其是──我們都知道目前的就業環境相當寬鬆。而就我們目前的狀況而言,如果你看一下經濟入住率(即財務入住率),我們報告的入住率低於拖欠率。第四季度,該市場處於 94.7% 的水平。所以,我們距離95%的穩定率只差一步之遙了。
And compared to last quarter, I'm sorry, compared to third-quarter, 94% economic and, of course, second-quarter, 93.8%. So it's been steadily improving, which is fantastic. And what we're seeing next year in 2026 is that supply decreases by 20% in this market. So we are hopeful that we will move towards this 95% stabilization sooner rather than later.
與上個季度相比,抱歉,是與第三季相比,經濟成長率為 94%,當然,與第二季相比,經濟成長率為 93.8%。所以情況一直在穩定改善,這真是太好了。我們預計,到 2026 年,該市場的供應量將減少 20%。因此,我們希望能夠盡快實現95%的穩定目標。
But having said that, once again, the timing is not so much in our control because the eviction processing timeline is what really drives our ability to move that delinquency number. And so we try to take a more prudent approach on that front, but it's moving in the right direction.
但話雖如此,時間安排並非完全由我們掌控,因為驅逐程序的進度才是真正決定我們能否降低拖欠率的關鍵因素。因此,我們試圖在這方面採取更謹慎的做法,但方向是對的。
Nicholas Yulico - Analyst
Nicholas Yulico - Analyst
Okay. And then second question is just on San Francisco and I guess, the Bay Area broadly. I know -- I think some of the strong rent growth we've seen from the market data has been helped by removing concessions from that market. And so there was a comp issue, I think, helping the numbers. Does that become like a headwind this year in terms of us just thinking about like how San Francisco rent growth could look this year versus last year?
好的。第二個問題是關於舊金山,我想也包括整個灣區。我知道——我認為,從市場數據中看到的強勁租金成長,部分原因是因為取消了市場上的優惠政策。所以我認為,有薪酬方面的問題,有助於提升業績。今年,當我們思考舊金山今年的租金成長情況與去年相比會如何時,這是否會成為一種不利因素?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Nick, I think on the concession, the margin, it could be a result of hangover from previous supply pressures. But what we're seeing concession level in this market is not too different from historical averages, and it's not a factor when it comes to the uplift in San Francisco. It's really been more of a recovery story. We are finally at a point where San Francisco as a market is somewhere around 9% above pre-COVID level.
是的。尼克,我認為讓步和利潤率可能是先前供應壓力遺留的影響。但我們看到,這個市場的讓步水準與歷史平均水準並沒有太大不同,而且就舊金山的房價上漲而言,這並不是一個因素。這其實更像是一個復甦的故事。舊金山市場目前終於比新冠疫情前的水平高出約 9%。
And if you look at where it should be, it should be somewhere around 20% above pre-COVID levels. So it's still in the recovery phase. And so it's less of a concessionary story hiccup.
如果你看它應該達到的水平,它應該比新冠疫情前的水平高出20%左右。所以它仍處於恢復階段。所以這與其說是妥協的故事小插曲,不如說是小插曲。
Operator
Operator
Eric Wolfe, Citi.
Eric Wolfe,花旗銀行。
Nick Joseph - Analyst
Nick Joseph - Analyst
It's Nick Joseph here with Eric. There were reports, I guess, last week about a large Southern California portfolio coming on to the market. So curious where you see buyer cap rates today and, I guess, across your markets, but maybe specific to Southern California if there's any differences between the regions? And then just broader your thoughts on kind of external growth and capital allocation coming into this year.
我是尼克·約瑟夫,我是艾瑞克。我猜上周有報道稱,南加州一個大型投資組合即將上市。我很好奇您目前看到的買家資本化率是多少,我想了解您所在市場的整體情況,特別是南加州地區的情況,看看不同地區之間是否存在差異?然後,請您拓寬一下對今年外部成長和資本配置的看法。
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Nick, Rylan here. I'll start on the comment on the portfolio in Southern California. In general, not going to go into details. I don't really want to comment on a live transaction. But for background, there's been approximately $11 billion of transactions in Southern California over the past two years. The majority of the transactions last year occurred in that 4.5% to 4.75% cap rate range.
我是尼克·瑞蘭。我先來說說我在南加州的投資組合。總的來說,我不打算深入討論細節。我不太想對正在進行的交易發表評論。但作為背景訊息,過去兩年南加州的交易額約為 110 億美元。去年大部分交易的資本化率都在 4.5% 到 4.75% 之間。
So this is a healthy environment where there's a lot of capital coming in that I think they're going to do quite well. Obviously, we look at everything that comes through our markets, so we will be evaluating. And if there's an opportunity to create value, you would expect us to participate there. In terms of just bigger picture -- sorry, go ahead, Nick.
所以這是一個健康的投資環境,有很多資金流入,我認為他們會發展得很好。顯然,我們會關注所有進入我們市場的產品,所以我們會進行評估。如果存在創造價值的機會,你們會希望我們參與其中。從更宏觀的角度來看——抱歉,尼克,請繼續。
Nick Joseph - Analyst
Nick Joseph - Analyst
No. Go ahead.
不。前進。
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Yes. Capital allocation, just a reminder of our broader philosophy, right? So for investment criteria, we have three things that we're looking to solve for: one, FFO per share accretion; two, per share accretion; and looking for opportunities that are better growth profile than the rest of our portfolio. And our strategy, which is unchanged, is to allocate capital to those investments that offer the highest potential accretion relative to the cost of capital.
是的。資本配置,這不正是我們更廣泛理念的體現嗎?因此,在投資標準方面,我們有三個需要解決的問題:一是每股 FFO 成長;二是每股成長;三是尋找比我們投資組合中其他股票成長前景更好的機會。我們的策略仍然不變,那就是將資金分配給那些相對於資本成本而言具有最高潛在增值潛力的投資。
So we're going to continue, as we've done for this team been here in the past five-years and over the past 30-years to look for those opportunities where we can drive the highest potential accretion.
因此,我們將繼續像過去五年和過去三十年來為這支團隊所做的那樣,尋找能夠帶來最大潛在收益的機會。
Nick Joseph - Analyst
Nick Joseph - Analyst
And so for that 4.5% to 4.7% you quoted, is that buyer or seller? And how wide is that spread typically?
那麼,您提到的 4.5% 到 4.7% 的價格,是買方價格還是賣方價格?這種差異通常有多大?
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
That's buyer cap rates. Those are economic cap rates on in-place rents. Obviously, seller, it really depends on when the asset was purchased and what the tax base is involved. That's where you'll see some difference between buyer and seller cap rates in Southern California.
那是買方資本化率。這些是現有租金的經濟上限率。顯然,對於賣家來說,這實際上取決於資產的購買時間和涉及的稅基是什麼。這就是為什麼你會發現南加州買賣雙方的資本化率有些差異的原因。
Nick Joseph - Analyst
Nick Joseph - Analyst
Got it. And then just in terms of the capital allocation, just given where the stock is trading today. How do buybacks play into the stack of opportunity just given where you're seeing cap rates versus where the implied cap rate for the stock is?
知道了。然後,就資本配置而言,考慮到股票目前的交易價格。考慮到你看到的資本化率與股票的隱含資本化率,股票回購在機會堆疊中扮演著怎樣的角色?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Nick, it's a good question. And it's a calculation that we go through on a regular basis. And so I want to start with everything is on the table: buybacks, prefer equity, development, acquisition, all of the above. And when we think about buyback, we also look at the yield that we can generate from a straight acquisitions or development and the growth thereof. So there's an IR consideration.
尼克,問得好。這是我們經常需要進行的計算。因此,我想先說明所有方案都在考慮範圍內:股票回購、優先股股權、開發、收購,以上所有方案都適用。當我們考慮回購時,我們也會考慮透過直接收購或開發可以產生的收益及其成長。所以這裡需要考慮投資人關係問題。
Based on the stock today, which is in the mid $255, it's kind of a close tie across the board, if you will. And so then we need to look at how do we create value for the company. And I just want to point to that what we've done, when we directed capital deployment for fee simple properties in Northern California over the past 1.5 years.
根據今天的股價來看(大約在 255 美元左右),可以說各方面都勢均力敵。因此,我們需要考慮如何為公司創造價值。我只想指出,在過去 1.5 年裡,我們指導了北加州永久產權房產的資本部署,並以此來說明我們所做的工作。
It's done well for us even though our stock was trading in this range because those assets ended up generating portfolio-leading rent growth with cap rate compression, we really provided -- produced a lot of appreciation of these assets and the shareholder value. And so we have to consider that fact. And also, if you look at if we had done the buyback, say, six-months ago, well the stock has gotten cheaper.
儘管我們的股票在這個區間內交易,但這對我們來說仍然是好事,因為這些資產最終實現了投資組合領先的租金增長,同時資本化率也得到了壓縮,我們確實為這些資產和股東價值帶來了很大的增值。所以我們必須考慮到這個事實。而且,如果你看看如果我們六個月前就進行股票回購,那麼股票價格就會變得更便宜。
So not as attractive. And so there's a lot of things that we really -- we do consider and I hope that you realize that we do try to be very thoughtful about it. And you've seen us buy back stock in big chunks when it makes sense to do so.
所以吸引力沒那麼大。所以有很多事情我們確實會考慮,我希望你們能意識到,我們確實會非常認真地考慮這些事情。你們也看到我們在時機合適的時候會大量回購股票。
Operator
Operator
Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.
Steve Sakwa,Evercore ISI。
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
I think, Angela, you had mentioned that renewals would be in the 3% to 4% range for the year. I'm just curious, what have you experienced thus far kind of in the January, February and presumably March time frame?
安琪拉,我想你之前說過,今年的續約率會在 3% 到 4% 之間。我只是好奇,您在1月、2月以及3月這段時間都經歷了些什麼?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Steve, right now, our renewal is looking at around 4-ish to mid-4% for February, March. And so we're pretty much on track.
史蒂夫,目前來看,我們二月和三月的續約價格大約在 4% 到 4% 左右。所以,我們基本上是按計劃進行。
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
And are you doing a lot of discounting? Are you pretty much getting what you're asking for? Or is there a gap between kind of what you ask and what you achieved?
你們做了很多折扣促銷嗎?你想要的基本上都得到了嗎?或者說,你所提出的問題和你實際取得的成果之間是否存在差距?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So far, the negotiation is somewhere between 30 to 50 basis points. So it's -- to us, that point to just a normal stabilized environment.
目前談判的幅度在 30 到 50 個基點之間。所以對我們來說,這只是表示環境正常且穩定。
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
Great. And then, I guess, following up on the capital allocation discussion, you talked about sort of acquisitions and buybacks. But I think in the release, you explicitly said you would not have any development starts. So I'm just curious where would development pencil, if you were to start one? And I guess, what does that mean about costs having to come down or rents having to grow in order to get to a yield that makes sense to you?
偉大的。然後,我想,接著之前的資本配置討論,你談到了收購和回購之類的話題。但我認為在發布聲明中,您明確表示不會啟動任何開發專案。所以我很好奇,如果你要開始畫發展草圖,你會從哪裡開始?那麼,為了達到你認為合理的收益率,成本是否必須下降,或者租金是否必須上漲?
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Steve, this is Rylan. We -- currently in our development pipeline, right, we have two land sites that we continue to move -- work forward with, but they're not expected to start in 2026. Our team underwrote probably about 100 land sites last year, and none of them really made sense from an economic perspective. So you really need to see land sellers take a reduction in their expectation on land prices to make the numbers work today and/or you're going to have to see 10%-plus rent growth for some of these deals to make economic sense. So we're closer.
史蒂夫,這是萊蘭。我們目前正在推進兩個地塊的開發,但預計不會在 2026 年開工。去年,我們的團隊可能承銷了大約 100 個土地項目,但從經濟角度來看,沒有一個項目是真正有意義的。所以,要想讓今天的交易有利可圖,土地賣家必須降低對土地價格的預期,或是租金必須成長 10% 以上,這些交易才有經濟意義。我們離目標更近了。
We have our own pipeline that we continue to work forward to. And if we can find something at a significant premium to the transaction rate where we feel comfortable for the risk that we'd be taking in development, we'd happily step in. We do think there's going to be some opportunities on the development side. We're just trying to make sure we're getting the best risk-adjusted returns.
我們有自己的研發項目,並將繼續推進該項目。如果我們能找到價格遠高於交易價格,且我們覺得開發過程中承擔的風險可以接受的項目,我們很樂意介入。我們認為在發展方面會有一些機會。我們只是想確保獲得最佳的風險調整後效益。
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
Steve Sakwa - Analyst
And sorry, just what would you need on that? Is that a 6%? Is that 6.5%? Is that 5.5% in your markets?
不好意思,請問您需要什麼幫助?那是6%嗎?是6.5%嗎?你們市場的比例是5.5%嗎?
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Yes. As I said, depending on the submarket in Northern California, as Angela mentioned, where the transaction market feels like it's shaking in that 4.25% type range. Something close to 6%, I think would definitely be worth the risk. If we have clear visibility on entitlements, we knew exactly what we're going to build. We felt good about the land basis. Those are the types of opportunities that we would jump at.
是的。正如我所說,根據北加州的細分市場,正如安吉拉所提到的那樣,交易市場感覺在 4.25% 左右的範圍內波動。我認為接近 6% 的機率絕對值得冒險。如果我們對各項權益有清楚的了解,我們就能準確地知道我們要建造什麼。我們對土地基礎感到滿意。這些正是我們會毫不猶豫抓住的機會。
Operator
Operator
Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.
Brad Heffern,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Brad Heffron - Analyst
Brad Heffron - Analyst
Another question on LA. Obviously, you're seeing some improvements there. Can you talk about if the guidance assumes a significant improvement in performance year-over-year? And if not, when do you expect LA to become more of a positive contributor?
關於洛杉磯的另一個問題。顯然,這方面已經取得了一些進展。您能否談談該指導意見是否假設業績將比上年有顯著改善?如果不是這樣,你預計洛杉磯何時才能成為更積極的貢獻者?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Brad, we are assuming that LA continues to improve gradually. And so we are hopeful that by year-end next year that if we turn to a normal delinquency rate, long term for LA is a little elevated than our typical portfolio average, but that's okay. That's what we expected. So we do have that baked in. The potential upside really comes from the general jobs environment for -- especially with supply going down, certainly, there's opportunities there with LA.
布拉德,我們假設洛杉磯的情況會繼續逐步改善。因此,我們希望到明年年底,如果違約率恢復正常,洛杉磯的長期違約率雖然略高於我們典型的投資組合平均水平,但這沒關係。正如我們所預料的。所以我們已經把這一點考慮進去了。潛在的上漲空間主要來自整體就業環境——尤其是在供應下降的情況下,洛杉磯肯定存在著許多機會。
Brad Heffron - Analyst
Brad Heffron - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And then on the immigration front, has there been any sort of noticeable impact on demand or anything that you can see on your dashboards just from the lack of immigration?
好的。知道了。那麼在移民方面,由於移民人數不足,是否對需求產生了任何明顯的衝擊,或者您可以從您的儀表板上看到任何相關變化?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We have not seen any direct impact from the immigration front. I think -- I'm assuming you're talking about international migration. What we have seen is it's generally returned to pre-COVID historical norm, and activities are at a normalized level. And when we look at legislation -- that impact that really is like an H-1B, we certainly haven't seen any adverse impact from that. In fact, that continues to be viewed as a positive. And there are certain carve-outs for students and et cetera, that really should not hurt our business.
我們尚未看到移民方面有任何直接影響。我想——我假設你指的是國際移民。我們看到的情況是,一切大體上已經恢復到新冠疫情前的歷史常態,各項活動也已恢復正常水準。當我們審視立法——例如 H-1B 簽證的影響——我們當然還沒有看到任何不利影響。事實上,這仍然被視為一件好事。此外,還有一些針對學生等群體的例外情況,這些例外情況不應該對我們的業務造成損害。
Operator
Operator
Jana Galan. Bank of America.
賈娜·加蘭。美國銀行。
Jana Galen - Analyst
Jana Galen - Analyst
This year, there's a mayoral election in LA and an election for Governor in California as well as a number of proposals that could impact real estate. I'm curious if you can kind of let us know what you're watching from a policy front that could potentially be beneficial for rental housing.
今年,洛杉磯將舉行市長選舉,加州將舉行州長選舉,此外還有一些可能影響房地產的提案。我很好奇您能否告訴我們,您在政策方面關注哪些可能對租賃房屋有利的因素。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jana, thanks for your question. It's an interesting situation here in that we've seen California slowly migrate away from these extreme liberal policies, which has been actually good for the overall economy and the voter population as well. So there's been a couple of proposals that were more under extreme end, and we were pleased to see that those proposals actually were not successful. So that's a good indication.
Jana,謝謝你的提問。這裡的情況很有趣,我們看到加州逐漸擺脫了這些極端的自由主義政策,這實際上對整體經濟和選民群體都有好處。所以,有一些提案比較極端,我們很高興地看到這些提案其實並沒有成功。所以這是一個很好的跡象。
What we're watching on the margin, of course, is the outcome, and we don't have any more insight to the election than what's publicly available. But what we can tell is that from the sentiment is that the general view is people want to have a normal function and economy. And these extreme measures have not been well received.
當然,我們關注的重點是選舉結果,我們對選舉的了解並不比公開資訊更多。但我們可以從民意中看出,人們普遍希望社會和經濟能正常運作。這些極端措施並未得到民眾的認可。
Jana Galen - Analyst
Jana Galen - Analyst
And then on the structured finance book, now that it's kind of rightsized or will be at the end of '26. Just going forward, how should we think about modeling the growth here?
至於結構性融資業務,現在規模已經調整到合適的程度,或將在 2026 年底達到合適的規模。展望未來,我們該如何建構這裡的成長模型?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, it's Barb. That's a good question. So how you should think about it is at the end of the year, our book value is $330 million, but what is in our guidance for '26 is $175 million that we are having income on that's hitting our numbers. And that is a three-year maturity. So there will be future redemptions, but it will be much more manageable over the next three years.
是的,是芭芭拉。這是個好問題。所以你應該這樣想:到年底,我們的帳面價值是 3.3 億美元,但我們 2026 年的業績指引是 1.75 億美元,這部分收入達到了我們的目標。那是一個為期三年的成熟期。因此,未來還會有贖回,但在未來三年內會更容易管理。
And we are looking for new opportunities to backfill. We obviously want to make sure the there are appropriate risk-adjusted returns, but it is a much more stable book than what we've had two to three years ago. So I think if you take the $175 million, that will get you a stable number going forward.
我們正在尋找新的機會來填補空缺。我們當然希望確保獲得適當的風險調整收益,但與兩三年前相比,現在的投資組合要穩定得多。所以我認為,如果接受1.75億美元,就能確保未來數字的穩定。
Operator
Operator
Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Austin Wurschmidt,KeyBanc 資本市場。
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Just going back to LA for a minute. Are you guys seeing conditions, I guess, broadly in your submarkets stabilize and rent growth may be approaching an inflection or was this more of a strategic approach on your part to build occupancy back to a stabilized level and everything you're seeing is kind of specific to your portfolio?
先回洛杉磯一會兒。你們是否看到,就你們的細分市場而言,整體情況趨於穩定,租金成長可能即將達到轉折點?或者這更多的是你們為了將入住率恢復到穩定水平而採取的戰略方法,而你們看到的一切都與你們的投資組合有關?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Austin, that's a good question. It's more Essex' operational strategy driven with how we are operating in LA. But ultimately, our goal is, of course, to maximize revenues. And so in an environment where you don't have stabilized occupancy, it's just -- you really don't have pricing power. And so it's critical to focus on delinquency, which I think our team has done an exceptional job and focus on building occupancy.
奧斯汀,問得好。這更體現了埃塞克斯郡的營運策略,以及我們在洛杉磯的運作方式。但歸根究底,我們的目標當然是實現收入最大化。因此,在入住率不穩定的環境下,你根本沒有定價權。因此,專注於拖欠款項至關重要,我認為我們的團隊在這方面做得非常出色,同時也要專注於提高房屋入住率。
And once we get to that 95% occupancy -- stabilized economic occupancy for our portfolio, then we will have some pricing power.
一旦我們的入住率達到 95%——也就是我們的投資組合達到穩定的經濟入住率——那麼我們將擁有一定的定價權。
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Got it. And then just going back, I mean, does that speak a little bit to the negative 2.4% new lease rate growth in the fourth-quarter and maybe what was the driver of that? Because it did seem that was a little lower than it's been in many years outside the COVID period? And have you started to see that reaccelerate into the new year given that occupancy is now in a better position even than it was a year ago at this time?
知道了。然後,讓我們回到之前的情況,我的意思是,這是否與第四季度新租賃率下降 2.4% 的情況有關?而造成這種情況的原因又是什麼呢?因為看起來確實比新冠疫情以外的許多年都要低?鑑於目前的入住率甚至比去年同期還要好,您是否已經開始看到這種趨勢在新的一年加速發展?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, that's a good question. That new lease rate is driven by the weakness in Seattle and weakness in San Diego more due to supply. LA was more -- is not as exciting. It was a little -- well, it's still negative. Okay. It's all not great on that front. Never mind. I think looking forward, there are a couple of things happening with the supply decreasing. And also the environment in LA stabilizing is certainly that it should turn -- is just starting to turn.
是的,這是個好問題。新的租賃價格受到西雅圖和聖地牙哥市場疲軟(主要是由於供應不足)的影響。洛杉磯以前更……現在沒那麼令人興奮了。有點——嗯,還是負面的。好的。在這方面,情況不太樂觀。沒關係。我認為展望未來,隨著供應減少,將會出現一些問題。而且洛杉磯的環境正在趨於穩定,當然應該會有所好轉——而且現在也開始好轉了。
Operator
Operator
John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.
John Kim,BMO資本市場。
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
On the new lease growth rate expectations of flat to 2%. I'm wondering what your thoughts were on cadence? Last year, it peaked in the first-quarter at 1%, and I'm wondering if you expect a similar dynamic this year? And as part of that, I was wondering if you could share your new lease rate growth in January.
預計新租賃成長率持平至 2%。我想知道你對節奏有什麼看法?去年第一季達到高峰1%,我想知道您是否預計今年也會出現類似的情況?作為其中的一部分,我想請您分享您一月份的新租賃價格增長。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So that's a good question. In terms of cadence, we do assume that 2026 is going to be pretty moderate. We're not expecting say, first half to be significantly greater than second half and vice versa. And that's really driven by our view that job -- the current job environment is going to continue just because both political uncertainty.
這是個好問題。就節奏而言,我們預期 2026 年的節奏將相當溫和。我們並不預期上半年會比下半年大很多,反之亦然。這主要是因為我們認為目前的就業環境將會持續下去,原因在於政治的不確定性。
And keep in mind, we have a midyear -- midterm election in the second half, and we don't know how public policy is going to behave in light of that. So it built in, kind of, some of those unknowns. As far as January numbers, I don't -- I mean I don't think it's all that productive to talk about that because December and January are always the worst period in our business because of seasonality. And it's not going to point to anything relevant with what's going to happen for the rest of the year.
請記住,下半年我們將舉行中期選舉,我們不知道公共政策會如何應對。所以,某種程度上,它也包含了部分未知因素。至於一月份的數據,我不認為——我的意思是,我認為談論這個沒什麼意義,因為由於季節性因素,十二月和一月總是我們行業中最糟糕的時期。而且它並不能預示今年餘下時間會發生什麼。
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
Okay. And Angela, in the past, meaning last year, you talked about happily trading out of Southern California or would you sell Southern California and buying in Northern California based on Rylan's commentary about being perhaps a little bit more opportunistic and the occupancy improvement you saw in LA this quarter, is that trade still the case? Or are you more agnostic on markets?
好的。安琪拉,你之前(指的是去年)說過,你很樂意賣掉南加州的房產,然後在北加州買房子。根據瑞蘭的評論,你認為或許應該更加積極地把握機會,而且你在本季度看到了洛杉磯的入住率有所提高。現在你還打算進行這樣的交易嗎?還是你對市場持更中立的態度?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, at this point -- well, let me start with we -- our view has always been there's a price for everything. And in an environment where cap rates are all generally consistent throughout our markets. We certainly would want to deploy capital in a market where we believe has an elevated level of rent growth ahead of us, which is Northern California.
嗯,在這一點上——嗯,讓我先從我們說起——我們一直認為,任何事物都有代價。而且是在我們所有市場資本化率普遍一致的環境下。我們當然希望將資金投入到我們認為租金成長前景良好的市場,也就是北加州。
So if you look at the current environment, if all cap rates remain generally in line in Northern California is still a more compelling place to deploy capital because it's just -- it's in the recovery space. But once you start seeing a gap between -- among the cap rates in the different submarkets, then it's a different calculation. And so we're going to have to look at that holistically rather than just based on a specific number.
所以,如果你觀察當前的環境,如果所有資本化率基本上保持不變,那麼北加州仍然是部署資本更具吸引力的地方,因為它正處於復甦階段。但是,一旦你發現不同子市場的資本化率之間存在差距,那麼計算方法就不同了。因此,我們需要從整體來看這個問題,而不是只根據某個具體的數字。
John Kim - Analyst
John Kim - Analyst
And how much should that gap be in your mind?
你認為這個差距應該有多大?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, it depends on the growth. And it really is more submarket driven. So for example, when I say Northern California, we certainly wouldn't invest in Mountainview at the same cap rate as we would invest in Oakland. And so I wish I could give you a finite number because that will make everyone's life so much easier. But it really depends on the growth rate of that specific asset, which has a lot to do with how it's managed and what's going in the submarket. And it's just not as simple as a one data set that fits all situation.
這取決於增長情況。而且這實際上更多是由細分市場驅動的。例如,當我提到北加州時,我們當然不會以相同的資本化率投資於芒廷維尤,也不會以同樣的資本化率投資於奧克蘭。所以,我真希望我能給你們一個確切的數字,因為那會讓大家的生活輕鬆很多。但這其實取決於該特定資產的成長率,而成長率又與其管理方式和次市場的發展狀況密切相關。情況並非像一個資料集就能適用於所有情況那麼簡單。
Operator
Operator
Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.
Haendel St. Juste,瑞穗證券。
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
A couple of follow-ups for me. First, I guess I want to go back to the blends. I know you talked quite a bit about it, but I just wanted to clarify a few things. I guess by our math, it looks like your outlook for blended rents for the year implies a slight decel in the back half of the year, which seems pretty unlike your peers who are embedding an acceleration in the second half. So first, is that fair?
我還有幾個後續問題。首先,我想回到混合口味。我知道你已經談了很多,但我還是想澄清一些事情。根據我們的計算,您今年的綜合租金預期似乎表明下半年略有放緩,這與您的同行下半年加速成長的預期截然不同。首先,這樣公平嗎?
And then second, can you comment on what your expectations are for market rate growth by key regions for this year?
其次,您能否談談您對今年主要地區市場利率成長的預期?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Haendel, sure thing, and thanks for your question. I'm not sure where you're seeing a decel in the second half, maybe we can sync up after call because we're modeling pretty much a consistent rate and what we typically assume is that first-quarter and fourth-quarter blends are at the lowest level and then second and third-quarter blends are higher. And so they kind of offset each other as far as the market rents by market.
亨德爾,當然可以,謝謝你的提問。我不確定你認為下半年增速放緩的具體情況在哪裡,或許我們可以在通話後討論一下,因為我們模擬的增速基本一致,我們通常假設第一季度和第四季度的混合增速最低,而第二季度和第三季度的混合增速較高。因此,就市場租金而言,它們在某種程度上相互抵消了。
It's actually in an environment of low growth, it's not all that different from our blend. So last year, our market rents landed in the mid-2s and we're assuming that in 2026, market rents will be very similar. And we're assuming Northern California to be on the higher end, say, in the mid 3s to 4 range and Seattle in the mid-2s and Southern California in the mid-1s.
實際上,它所處的環境增長緩慢,與我們的混合物並沒有太大區別。所以去年,我們的市場租金落在了 25% 左右,我們預計 2026 年的市場租金也會非常相似。我們假設北加州處於較高水平,例如在 3 到 4 之間,西雅圖在 2 之間,南加州在 1 之間。
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And I guess to your point on the blend, maybe it's not decel, but certainly, there's not an acceleration required in the back half of the year like your peers. Second question, I wanted to talk a little bit about Southern California, but ex LA. Obviously, you know LA is going to be a bit challenged near term, but curious how you're thinking about the prospects for Orange County and San Diego near term?
知道了。那很有幫助。至於你提到的混合模式,也許不是減速,但肯定的是,在下半年不需要像你的同行那樣加速。第二個問題,我想稍微談談南加州,但不是洛杉磯。顯然,您也知道洛杉磯短期內會面臨一些挑戰,但我很好奇您如何看待橙縣和聖地亞哥的短期前景?
And then maybe sprinkling a question on LA, how you would think of LA growth over the next few years? You mentioned cap rates generally being kind of in that sub 5-ish range. But curious how you think an IRR for a LA portfolio would look like.
然後或許可以問一個關於洛杉磯的問題,您認為洛杉磯未來幾年的發展前景如何?你提到資本化率通常在 5% 左右。我很好奇您認為洛杉磯投資組合的內部報酬率(IRR)會是什麼樣子。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good questions. Ryland will talk about the cap rates. In terms of Southern California, we're assuming that -- I mean, sorry, in San Diego and Orange County performed similar to this year. It's really more driven by the fact that we view the job growth to be generally constant and supply from what we see in San Diego, it's about at the same level and Orange County, it's slightly elevated.
問得好。萊蘭德將討論資本化率。就南加州而言,我們假設——我的意思是,抱歉,聖地亞哥和橙縣的情況與今年類似。這主要是因為我們認為就業成長總體上保持穩定,而從聖地牙哥的情況來看,就業供應大致處於同一水平,橙縣的就業供應量則略高一些。
But not in such a huge magnitude that it's going to drive a significant movement. So stable, not very exciting, but kind of -- is more of the same for Orange County and San Diego.
但規模還不大,不足以引發一場重大變革。所以,橙縣和聖地牙哥的情況比較穩定,沒什麼特別令人興奮的地方,但某種程度上來說,情況也差不多。
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Haendel, I'll jump in on the IRR expectations. I think where we've seen a lot of transactions in Southern California with our growth expectations in these markets. We've seen market clearing trades, I would say, in the low 7 IRR type range. Again, a wide variety depending on the asset and the business plan for some of these assets.
Haendel,我也來談談內部報酬率預期。我認為,鑑於我們對這些市場的成長預期,我們在南加州已經看到了許多交易。我們已經看到市場出清交易,我認為,內部報酬率 (IRR) 處於 7% 左右的低點。同樣,具體情況取決於資產種類以及某些資產的商業計劃。
But we think we've been able to achieve much better returns in our submarket selection in Northern California. So that's where we've really been focused. Now if any of those assumptions were to change as it relates to the going-in cap rate the business plan on a specific asset and/or the growth rates, then you would see us change our capital allocation priorities. But that's where it's been trending in 2025, I'd say.
但我們認為,我們在北加州細分市場的選擇上已經取得了更好的回報。所以,這就是我們一直以來的重點。如果與特定資產的初始資本化率、業務計劃和/或成長率相關的任何假設發生變化,那麼我們將改變我們的資本配置優先事項。但我認為,這就是它在 2025 年的發展趨勢。
Operator
Operator
Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.
Alexander Goldfarb,Piper Sandler。
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Two questions. First, Angela, you guys have -- you outlined what you expect advocacy costs in your guidance, although it's not part of core FFO, it's just part of NAREIT FFO, but given that advocacy is sort of a recurring part of operating assets and real estate in California, would these expenses just be a normal part of the business, like not -- it's core to the business of being in California, no different than insurance costs, earthquake costs or any of that in California or weather costs, et cetera.
兩個問題。首先,Angela,你們在指導意見中概述了你們對倡導成本的預期,雖然它不屬於核心FFO,而只是NAREIT FFO的一部分,但考慮到倡導是加州營運資產和房地產的經常性支出,這些費用是否只是業務的正常組成部分,例如——它不是在加州開展業務的核心,與保險成本、地震成本或加州的任何其他成本或天氣之間沒有其他成本或天氣區別。
So just curious about that because I would think, especially as people are contemplating that other portfolio in Southern California, the regulatory costs are part of the calculus of how they look at whether or not to invest.
所以我很好奇這一點,因為我認為,尤其是當人們考慮南加州的其他投資組合時,監管成本是他們考慮是否投資時需要考慮的因素之一。
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Alex, it's Barb. So in terms of the advocacy costs or the political costs that we had, we had $2 million in 2025. We have not specifically outlined what the cost will be in '26. We've provided a number, but it does include other legal fees that are outside of our normal core operations. So we don't expect there to be significant advocacy costs in 2026.
Alex,我是Barb。因此,就我們的宣傳成本或政治成本而言,到 2025 年,我們將花費 200 萬美元。我們沒有具體說明 2026 年的成本是多少。我們已經提供了一個數字,但其中包含了我們正常核心運作以外的其他法律費用。因此,我們預計 2026 年不會有重大的宣傳成本。
There will be a small amount, but we don't see them as necessarily re-occurring. They can be lumpy from year-to-year when we have a big ballot measure, we're not expecting a lot on the advocacy front in 2026.
數量會很少,但我們認為它們不一定會反覆出現。每年都有重大投票表決時,情況可能會有所波動,因此我們預計 2026 年在倡議方面不會有太多進展。
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Alexander Goldfarb - Analyst
Okay. And then Ryland, -- just in looking at deal flow, it seems like 2021 was a banner year for ultra-low rate deals that may not have hit their pro forma and maybe have it coming back for debt maturities or restructuring in the next year or two. Do you see a lot of these deals coming to the market to trade? Or as you guys take a look at these deals that are having issues, most of them seem to be resolved internally between the existing sponsor and the lenders.
好的。然後是 Ryland,——僅從交易流來看,2021 年似乎是超低利率交易的豐收年,這些交易可能沒有達到預期目標,並且可能在未來一兩年內因債務到期或重組而重新出現。你認為市場上會有很多這類交易嗎?或者,你們看看這些出現問題的交易,就會發現大多數問題似乎都在現有發起人和貸款人之間內部得到了解決。
I'm just trying to figure out if the 2021 vintage is going to create opportunity for you guys or if it's going to be one of these where most of the stuff gets resolved on its own.
我只是想弄清楚 2021 年的年份酒是否會為你們帶來機會,還是會像往常一樣,大部分問題都會自行解決。
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Alex, I think you're correct in that there were a lot of deals done at very low cap rates in 2021, and most of them were funded five-year debt as typical. So in theory, there should be a lot of deals coming to market that have lost an attractive debt rate there. However, as you also acknowledge, there is a lot of debt capital out there looking to report in the multifamily space.
Alex,我認為你的說法是對的,2021 年有很多交易的資本化率非常低,而且大多數交易都是像往常一樣透過五年期債務融資的。因此,理論上來說,市場上應該會湧現許多因為失去了有吸引力的債務利率而被迫退出市場的交易。然而,正如您所承認的,目前有許多債務資本希望投資多戶住宅領域。
So I think there's been a lot of deals being done between lenders and sponsors. And we really have not seen any indications of distressed sales coming to our market. The other thing to keep in mind is that Southern California, in particular, has done fairly well relative to the rest of the country over the past five-years. So NOIs are up and these -- they've created value in many cases.
所以我認為貸款方和發起人之間達成了很多交易。我們目前還沒有看到任何跡象顯示市場上會出現低價拋售的情況。另一點要注意的是,在過去五年裡,南加州相對於美國其他地區表現相當不錯。所以淨營業收入上升了,而且在很多情況下,它們都創造了價值。
So I'm not anticipating a significant onslaught of distress in '26 for the reasons you mentioned. One general really favorable lending environment. And then two, performance has done okay.
因此,我預計 2026 年不會出現你所說的那些重大災難。整體而言,貸款環境非常有利。其次,性能表現尚可。
Operator
Operator
Wes Golladay, Baird.
韋斯·戈拉迪,貝爾德。
Wes Golladay - Analyst
Wes Golladay - Analyst
This quarter, you took control of an asset in Los Angeles tied to the preferred portfolio. Can you talk about when you expect that asset to stabilize, if it hasn't? And was it much of a drag on earnings this year?
本季度,您接管了洛杉磯的一項與優先投資組合相關的資產。如果該資產價格尚未穩定,您預計何時能夠穩定下來?那它對今年的獲利造成了多大拖累?
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Rylan Burns - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Wes, this is Ryland here. Yes, this is a unique asset. It's -- we expect this to stabilize in the mid-5 range. There was no impact to the economics last year. We just took management of it at the end of last year. Going in, it's probably a low to mid-4 cap. The previous sponsor had a unique business model where a certain portion of the units were rented is fully furnished short-term rentals, which had not done well elevated delinquency and a little bit higher controllable expenses.
韋斯,這位是萊蘭德。是的,這是一項獨特的資產。我們預計它會穩定在 5 左右的範圍內。去年對經濟沒有造成影響。我們在去年年底才接管它的管理權。初步來看,它的上限可能在4%到4%之間。先前的贊助商採用了獨特的商業模式,將部分單位出租給設施齊全的短期租戶,但這種模式並不成功,導致拖欠率上升,可控費用也略高。
So putting it onto our platform with no assumption of significant rent growth on that asset, we are very confident we're going to be able to get this to a mid-5 by the end of the year.
因此,儘管我們沒有假設該資產的租金會有顯著增長,但我們將其放到我們的平台上,我們非常有信心到年底能夠將其評級提高到 5 分中段。
Operator
Operator
Michael Goldsmith, UBS.
瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
First question is on the legislative front. Are you seeing anything that may be related to the so-called junk fees or Essex' ability to continue to grow non-rental income?
第一個問題涉及立法方面。您是否發現任何可能與所謂的垃圾費用或埃塞克斯郡持續增長非租賃收入的能力有關的事情?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael, we have looked at our practices as it relates to other fees, and we've also utilized consultants to make sure they have our practices are in compliance and so we don't expect that to be -- to have a meaningful impact to our business.
邁克爾,我們已經審視了我們與其他費用相關的做法,並且我們還聘請了顧問來確保我們的做法符合規定,因此我們預計這不會對我們的業務產生實質性的影響。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Got it. And then just as a follow-up, have you seen any changes in the pace of move-ins from outside of Essex's core markets?
知道了。那麼,作為後續問題,您是否注意到埃塞克斯核心市場以外地區的人口遷入速度有任何變化?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Would you repeat that question, sorry?
不好意思,請您再說一次這個問題好嗎?
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Have you seen any change in the pace of move-ins from -- into Essex' market from outside markets. The pace of move-ins into the market.
您是否注意到從外地市場遷入艾塞克斯市場的人口速度有任何變化?房屋入住率。
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sorry. Good question. We have seen an increase in the migration trends, especially in our northern region. And -- but I do want to caution you on the immigration numbers in that this is really driven more probably by return to office. It's not driven by robust job hiring environment. And so -- but so far, it's showing positive and it's been a nice little tailwind for us.
對不起。問得好。我們看到人口遷移趨勢增加,尤其是在我們北部地區。但是——我確實想提醒你們注意移民數字,因為這很可能更多是由重新執政所驅動的。這並非由強勁的招募環境所驅動。所以——但到目前為止,情況表現良好,這對我們來說是一個不錯的順風。
Operator
Operator
Our Julian Blouin, Goldman Sachs.
我們的朱利安·布盧因,高盛。
Julien Blouin - Analyst
Julien Blouin - Analyst
I just want to go back to Seattle. You mentioned the return to office plans for Amazon and Microsoft. But then on the other hand, both of those companies have announced corporate layoffs there by the thousands over the past six-months. I guess, what is your sense of how that push and pull will sort of play out this year? Can the RTO benefit really outweigh the continued layoffs we've seen?
我只想回西雅圖。您提到了亞馬遜和微軟的復工計畫。但另一方面,這兩家公司在過去六個月都宣布了數千人的裁員計畫。我想,您覺得今年這種拉鋸戰會如何發展呢?RTO(反向收購)帶來的好處真的能抵銷我們目前看到的持續裁員嗎?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, that's a good question, and that's really -- as far as how we judge or how we decide on setting our guidance, right, what does that mean? How long does it take? What we have seen with Seattle, in particular, is that it moves quickly. So yes, there's layoffs offset by return to office, but Seattle also has -- having a 30% reduction in supply.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,這確實是——就我們如何判斷或如何決定制定指導方針而言,對吧,這意味著什麼?多久時間?尤其從西雅圖的情況來看,它的進展非常迅速。所以,雖然裁員被重返辦公室所抵消,但西雅圖也面臨供應減少 30% 的問題。
And so absent of, say, additional job growth, for example, this market should stay just fine if not slightly better than last year, but it's going to do just fine. But secondly, when we look at the layoffs, we do dig into the reason for the layoffs because that really matter. So when we look at the reasons for layoffs with the large companies and including Amazon, the reasons cited are they're either eliminating nonprofitable businesses, for example, Amazon Fresh, pivoting to Whole Foods or they're expanding.
因此,如果沒有額外的就業成長,例如,這個市場即使不會比去年略好,也應該會保持良好狀態,而且肯定會表現良好。但其次,當我們審視裁員情況時,我們會深入探討裁員的原因,因為這真的很重要。因此,當我們查看包括亞馬遜在內的大公司裁員的原因時,他們給出的理由要么是取消不盈利的業務(例如 Amazon Fresh),要么是轉型為 Whole Foods,要么是擴張。
They're putting in -- they're investing to expand into new business units or expand the business. And so the layoffs are not because of distress. And that's actually a good reason for layoffs. And additional data points to that, of course, the increased office absorption and increase in office leasing activity, all these data points together point to that. This is still a good vibrant market to be in.
他們正在投入資金,以拓展新的業務部門或擴大現有業務。因此,裁員並非由於困境所致。這其實是裁員的合理理由。當然,還有其他數據也印證了這一點,例如辦公大樓吸收量增加和辦公大樓租賃活動增加,所有這些數據都指向了這一點。這仍然是一個充滿活力、值得涉足的市場。
Julien Blouin - Analyst
Julien Blouin - Analyst
No, that's very helpful. Maybe digging into the South Bay as well, just in light of the fears that are out there around sort of AI native companies disrupting legacy tech and software. On the face of it, the South Bay is also one of those sort of more legacy tech or software-heavy markets where companies have been announcing corporate layoffs and had sort of less of that AI native HQ benefit that maybe San Francisco has.
不,這很有幫助。或許也應該深入研究南灣地區,因為人們擔心人工智慧原生公司會顛覆傳統技術和軟體。從表面上看,南灣也是那種更偏重傳統科技或軟體的市場之一,這裡的公司一直在宣布裁員,而且不像舊金山那樣擁有人工智慧原生總部帶來的優勢。
Why do you think the South Bay is sort of holding up so well while Seattle has maybe struggled a little bit more?
你認為為什麼南灣地區發展得如此穩健,而西雅圖卻可能面臨一些困境?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, I think the South Bay market is a much deeper market than Seattle. And even though, keep in mind, there is some disruption that we would expect from AI. But when you look at what's happening there, so if you're talking about disruption in -- by cloud or coworker, for example. It's creating a demand and increase in usage in Agentic AI.
我認為南灣市場比西雅圖市場深厚得多。即便如此,也要記住,人工智慧也會帶來一些我們預期的干擾。但當你觀察那裡正在發生的事情時,例如如果你談論的是雲端或同事帶來的顛覆性改變。它正在創造需求,並促進智能體人工智慧的應用。
And so you're going from one application that may be deprecated, but there's an expansion in another. And this is all happening still within the same submarket and so that's one of the foundational benefits of this market and having that concentration of all these tech companies there.
所以,你從一個可能已被棄用的應用程式過渡到另一個應用程序,而後者又有擴展功能。這一切都發生在同一個子市場內,因此,所有這些科技公司都集中在這個市場,這是該市場的基礎優勢之一。
Operator
Operator
Linda Tsai, Jefferies.
Linda Tsai,傑富瑞集團。
Linda Tsai - Analyst
Linda Tsai - Analyst
In 2026, do you expect any year-over-year changes in tax expenses from Seattle and Washington state due to the Seattle Shield initiative and B&O surcharge?
2026 年,由於西雅圖盾牌計劃和 B&O 附加費,您預計西雅圖和華盛頓州的稅收支出會有任何同比變化嗎?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
This is Barb. I mean we have baked in a Seattle tax increase this year into our guidance in the high single-digit range. But that -- and that encompasses kind of everything that you talked about. But that's what we're assuming this year, which is a big change from what we saw in 2025, where we had a pretty meaningful reduction in taxes.
這是芭芭拉。我的意思是,我們已經將今年西雅圖的稅收成長預期(接近兩位數)納入了我們的預測中。但是——這幾乎涵蓋了你剛才談到的所有內容。但這是我們今年的假設,這與我們在 2025 年看到的情況有很大不同,當時我們大幅降低了稅收。
Linda Tsai - Analyst
Linda Tsai - Analyst
What would be the dollar amount?
金額是多少美元?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I don't have that off the top of my head. I can follow up with you after.
我一時想不起來。之後我可以再聯絡你。
Operator
Operator
John Pawlowski, Green Street.
約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基,格林街。
John Pawlowski - Analyst
John Pawlowski - Analyst
I had a follow-up to the return to office discussion from a few questions ago. I would have thought work patterns are normalized by now. Amazon's policy has been in effect, five-days a week. It's been in effect, I think, for a year now. Has your local team seen a real second winds of demand to start the year, either in Seattle or the Bay Area or it's more of you're hoping that the positive momentum in the market continues gradually over time?
我有一個關於之前幾個問題中提到的返崗討論的後續問題。我原以為現在的工作模式已經標準化了。亞馬遜的這項政策每週五天生效。我想,這項措施已經生效一年了。你們當地的團隊是否在年初看到了西雅圖或灣區真正的第二波需求成長?或者你們更希望市場的正面動能能夠隨著時間的推移逐漸持續下去?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
John, our expectation is based on what we've seen actually happened on the ground. And what we have seen happening on the ground is that a company announces a return to office policy. And some employers would comply and some will not, for various reasons. And it is not until they announce enforcement that people -- all -- everyone starts to come back to the office. And that happened with Essex as well.
約翰,我們的預期是基於我們實際在現場看到的情況。我們看到實際情況是,一家公司宣布了返崗辦公政策。基於各種原因,有些雇主會遵守規定,有些雇主則不會。直到他們宣布強制執行,所有人才開始回到辦公室。埃塞克斯郡也發生了同樣的情況。
We had announced it and left people to get used to it. And then three quarters later, we announced that we're going to check key cards, for example, and everybody came back. And so our expectation is that this is going to play out similarly. And Amazon actually announced that they're starting enforcement in January. They're doing that for a reason. And I don't think -- I don't believe that their population would behave drastically different than the norm.
我們已經宣布了這件事,然後就讓大家慢慢適應。四個半小時後,我們宣布要檢查房卡,等等,然後大家都回來了。因此,我們預期這件事也會以類似的方式發展。亞馬遜實際上已經宣布,他們將於1月開始執行這項規定。他們這樣做是有原因的。而且我不認為──我不相信他們的人口行為會與常人有太大不同。
John Pawlowski - Analyst
John Pawlowski - Analyst
Okay. And then drilling into Seattle again. Obviously, it takes a little bit of time for layoffs to get announced, severance policies, et cetera, to actually flow through the housing decisions and people moving out. So in your Seattle portfolio, are you seeing a real uptick in notices to move out? Can you share any kind of forward-looking blendedly spread expectation just given the lag between the layoff announcements and the actual decisions renters make?
好的。然後再次鑽探西雅圖。顯然,裁員公告、遣散政策等都需要一些時間才能真正落實到住房決策和人們搬離等事宜上。那麼,在您的西雅圖投資組合中,您是否看到搬遷通知的數量確實增加?考慮到裁員公告發布與租屋者實際做出租屋決定之間存在時間差,您能否分享一下對未來混合租金價差的預期?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, first of all, typically, when there's a layoff, there's the public announcement and there's the private conversations. And employees don't typically find out that they're getting laid off publicly. There's a human conversation and people typically make decisions, their housing decisions 45-days in advance of a job change event.
首先,通常情況下,裁員時,既有公開宣布,也有私下談話。而且員工通常不會公開得知自己被解僱的消息。人們之間會進行對話,人們通常會在工作變動發生前 45 天做出住房決定。
And so our view is that the bulk of that layoff impact already has been felt in the fourth-quarter and some spillover in January and less so in February. And when we look at our leasing activities and our blended renewal rate, they're not all that different from historical patterns for Seattle. So I'm not -- we're not expecting a second shoe to drop, if you will, because of the layoff announcements.
因此,我們認為,裁員的大部分影響已經在第四季度顯現,1 月也有一些外溢效應,2 月的影響較小。當我們檢視我們的租賃活動和綜合續約率時,會發現它們與西雅圖的歷史模式並沒有太大的不同。所以,我們不認為裁員公告會帶來第二波不利後果。
John Pawlowski - Analyst
John Pawlowski - Analyst
Okay. So blended spreads for the first half of this year in Seattle, do you expect not to look meaningfully different than the second half of last year?
好的。那麼,您預計今年上半年西雅圖的混合銷售情況與去年下半年相比不會有顯著差異嗎?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Correct. And I would say the whole year because we're not expecting a huge difference between first half and second half in 2026. And then the one other data point I'll point to is that Seattle supply is declining by 30%. And so that will also benefit the market.
正確的。而且我認為全年都是如此,因為我們預計 2026 年上半年和下半年不會有太大差異。此外,我還要指出一點數據:西雅圖的供應量正在下降 30%。這樣一來,市場也會從中受益。
Operator
Operator
Rich Hightower, Barclays.
Rich Hightower,巴克萊銀行。
Richard Hightower - Equity Analyst
Richard Hightower - Equity Analyst
Just one from me. I just want to go back to Barb's comment in the prepared comments about the -- I guess, the conservatism baked into the idea that the structured investment redemptions would not be redeployed and that's basically what's embedded in the guidance at this point in time. I mean, I guess, how conservative is that view?
我只有一個。我只想回到芭芭拉在準備好的評論中提到的——我想,保守主義體現在結構化投資贖回不會被重新部署的想法中,而這基本上就是目前指導意見中體現的內容。我的意思是,我想問,這種觀點有多保守?
And is it conservative to the point of being a little bit unrealistic based on kind of what's in the pipeline and sort of the real underlying expectations for those redemption proceeds?
考慮到目前的專案進度以及對贖回收益的實際預期,這種保守的做法是否有些不切實際?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Rich, it's a good question. So what makes '26 unique in terms of our redemption profile is 90% of the redemptions we expect back are tied to two assets. So they're large redemptions, which do move the needle in the guidance. And on one of them, we did stop accrual in the fourth-quarter. We did a third-party valuation on it.
Rich,問得好。因此,就我們的贖回情況而言,'26 的獨特之處在於,我們預計收回的贖回款項中有 90% 與兩項資產相關。所以這些都是大額贖回,確實會對業績指引產生影響。其中一家公司在第四季度停止了應計項目。我們委託第三方機構進行了估值。
And we're fine from a valuation perspective today. But if we keep accruing, we felt we got a bit stretched. So we did the prudent thing and we stopped accruing. And then on the other one, we're just in discussions with the sponsor at this time. And so we -- given we don't know the final outcome, we decided to not assume any redemption proceeds.
從估值角度來看,我們目前狀況良好。但如果我們繼續積累,我們覺得資金有點捉襟見肘了。所以我們採取了謹慎的做法,停止了累積利息。至於另一個項目,我們目前正在與贊助商進行洽談。因此,鑑於我們不知道最終結果,我們決定不假設任何贖回收益。
There's no further downside in the guidance from these two assets. There will -- and could be upside, but we don't know until we get further along in our discussions, what that will be.
這兩項資產的績效指引沒有進一步下行的跡象。會有好處,也可能會有好處,但只有等我們進一步討論後才能知道具體是什麼好處。
Operator
Operator
Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.
Alex Kim,Zelman & Associates。
Alex Kim - Analyst
Alex Kim - Analyst
Just a quick one for me. I wanted to talk about the delinquencies and they look to be near pre-COVID trend line. Do you anticipate further improvement even below pre-COVID norms? And could you quantify how much of a contribution is embedded into that 30-basis point tailwind from the other income bucket for your full year same-store revenue growth guidance?
我只需要簡單回答一下。我想談談違約情況,目前看來,違約率已經接近新冠疫情前的趨勢線。您預計情況會進一步改善,甚至低於新冠疫情前的水平嗎?您能否量化一下,在全年同店營收成長預期中,來自其他收入來源的 30 個基點的順風因素究竟貢獻了多少?
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Barbara Pak - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. This is Barb. So we are pleased with how much progress we've made on the delinquency front over the last two years. We're at 50 basis points, we're about 10 basis points off of our historical pre-COVID average so we're really close. And to Angela's earlier point, it's really tied to LA, where eviction courts are still -- the processing times are still slightly elevated relative to pre-COVID averages.
是的。這是芭芭拉。因此,我們對過去兩年在打擊青少年犯罪方面取得的進展感到滿意。我們現在是 50 個基點,比新冠疫情前的歷史平均值低了大約 10 個基點,所以我們非常接近了。正如安吉拉之前提到的,這確實與洛杉磯有關,那裡的驅逐法庭的處理時間仍然比新冠疫情前的平均水平略高。
So we haven't baked any meaningful benefit in from delinquency in 2026. We've gotten the bulk of our delinquency benefit already in the prior years. We're still trying to get back there on the LA front. And maybe by year-end, we could, but it's not going to move the needle like it did in '25 from that perspective.
因此,我們並沒有從 2026 年的違約事件中獲得任何實質的好處。我們已經在前幾年獲得了大部分的逾期還款優惠。我們仍在努力重返洛杉磯戰線。或許到年底我們就能做到,但從這個角度來看,它不會像 2025 年那樣產生巨大的影響。
Operator
Operator
Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.
Omotayo Okusanya,德意志銀行。
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
Omotayo Okusanya - Analyst
I wondered if you could talk a little bit about technology initiatives you guys are still undertaking to help with things like customer satisfaction, customer retention, rent growth, operating expense management and just kind of what benefits from that are being built into your 2026 guidance?
我想請您談談貴公司目前仍在推進的技術舉措,這些舉措旨在幫助提高客戶滿意度、客戶留存率、租金增長、營運費用管理,以及這些舉措將為貴公司 2026 年的業績指引帶來哪些益處?
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Angela Kleiman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's a good question. From a technology perspective, we do have a variety of initiatives in our pipeline, both top line and, of course, some on the bottom-line benefits. On the sales and leasing front, it's really more AI focused. And of course, on the bottom line, as it relates to expenses, there's some expense management opportunities and technology that we are implementing.
這是個好問題。從技術角度來看,我們確實有各種各樣的舉措正在籌備中,既包括提升收入的舉措,當然也包括提升利潤的舉措。在銷售和租賃方面,它確實更加重視人工智慧。當然,就最終的費用而言,我們正在實施一些費用管理的機會和技術。
Having said that you'll see that other income contributions from these initiatives are fantastic, but they are lumpy. And when we start something, it usually takes a year or two to really monetize the opportunity. And so I'll give you an example. Last year, we had a nice pickup. And one of the reasons was EV parking, and that was rolled out in 2024.
話雖如此,你會發現這些措施帶來的其他收入貢獻非常棒,但它們並不均衡。而且,當我們開始做某件事時,通常需要一到兩年的時間才能真正獲利。我舉個例子。去年我們收穫了一筆不錯的收益。其中一個原因是電動車停車,該措施於 2024 年推出。
We captured the bulk of the benefit in '25, and there's some residual in '26, and that's a reasonable cadence. So we are not baking anything new from this year because this year is a pilot rollout phase, and we're going to see how the pilot performs before we assess the rollout and the ultimate economic benefit for future years.
我們在 2025 年獲得了大部分收益,2026 年還有一些剩餘收益,這是一個合理的節奏。因此,我們今年不會推出任何新產品,因為今年是試點推廣階段,我們將觀察試點效果,然後再評估推廣效果以及未來幾年的最終經濟效益。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session, and we'll conclude our call today. Thank you for your interest and participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束,今天的通話也將結束。感謝您的關注與參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。