Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Essex Property Trust second quarter 2025 earnings call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.

大家好，歡迎參加 Essex Property Trust 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議上關於預期營運績效和其他未來事件的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，涉及風險和不確定性。

Forward-looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs as well as information available to the company at this time. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

前瞻性陳述是基於當前的預期、假設和信念以及公司目前掌握的資訊做出的。許多因素可能導致實際結果與預期結果大不相同。

Further information about these risks can be found on the company's filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Angela Kleiman, President and Chief Executive Officer for Essex Property Trust. Thank you, Ms. Kleiman. You may begin.

有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人，埃塞克斯房地產信託公司總裁兼首席執行官安吉拉·克萊曼女士。謝謝你，克萊曼女士。你可以開始了。

Good morning. Welcome to Essex second quarter earnings call. Barb Pak will follow with prepared remarks, and Rylan Burns is here for Q&A. Today, I will cover key takeaways from the quarter, our outlook for the second half of the year, and provide an update on the transaction market. We are pleased to report solid results for the first half of 2025, highlighted by a $0.07 core FFO outperformance in the second quarter and an increase to same property and core FFO guidance for the year.

早安.歡迎參加 Essex 第二季財報電話會議。Barb Pak 將隨後發表準備好的講話，Rylan Burns 將進行問答。今天，我將介紹本季的主要內容、我們對下半年的展望，並提供交易市場的最新情況。我們很高興地報告 2025 年上半年的穩健業績，其中最突出的是第二季度核心 FFO 表現優異 0.07 美元，以及全年相同物業和核心 FFO 指引的增加。

Starting with operations highlights. Second quarter performed on plan with 3% blended rate growth for the same store portfolio. Northern California and Seattle lagged with 3.8% and 3.7% blended rate growth, respectively, while Southern California lagged with 2% blended rate growth, primarily because of Los Angeles.

從營運亮點開始。第二季業績表現符合計劃，同一門市組合的混合利率成長了 3%。北加州和西雅圖的綜合利率成長率分別落後 3.8% 和 3.7%，而南加州的總利率成長率落後 2%，這主要是因為洛杉磯。

On a more granular level, the suburban markets of San Mateo and San Jose were notable outperformers with 5.6% and 4.4% blended rate growth, respectively. We attribute the outperformance through limited housing supply increased enforcement of return to office and likely better job growth than what has been reported by the BLS.

從更細微的層面來看，聖馬刁和聖荷西郊區市場表現優異，混合利率成長率分別為 5.6% 和 4.4%。我們將這種優異表現歸因於有限的住房供應、加強重返辦公室的執行力度以及可能比美國勞工統計局報告的更好的就業成長。

In contrast, Los Angeles remains challenging with 1.3% blended rent growth resulting from pockets of elevated supply deliveries, coupled with legacy delinquency challenges in a soft demand environment. Despite these challenges, we have been able to generate a positive blended rate growth in every Los Angeles submarket year to date.

相較之下，洛杉磯仍面臨挑戰，由於部分地區供應量增加，加上需求疲軟環境下的遺留拖欠問題，混合租金成長率為 1.3%。儘管面臨這些挑戰，但迄今為止，我們每年在洛杉磯子市場都實現了正的混合利率成長。

Additionally, we are tracking several large infrastructure investments related to the World Cup and Olympics that should improve overall economic activities in this market in the next few years.

此外，我們正在追蹤與世界盃和奧運相關的幾項大型基礎設施投資，這些投資應該會在未來幾年改善該市場的整體經濟活動。

Moving on to our outlook for the second half of the year. We continue to expect modest US GDP and job growth. And for the West Coast, a stable job environment. Year to date, our seasonal rent curves have generally matched our expectations and our seasonal peak for rents occurred around late July.

接下來是我們對今年下半年的展望。我們繼續預期美國GDP和就業將溫和成長。對西海岸來說，這是一個穩定的就業環境。今年迄今為止，我們的季節性租金曲線基本上符合我們的預期，季節性租金高峰出現在 7 月下旬左右。

Accordingly, our guidance for the second half of the year assumes market rents to moderate consistent with normal seasonality. Our increase to the same-store revenue guidance generally reflects the outperformance achieved to date.

因此，我們對下半年的指導假設市場租金將與正常的季節性一致。我們上調同店營收預期整體反映了迄今為止所取得的優異表現。

In terms of range of outcomes, the low end of our guidance contemplates two factors, first, a softer macro economy stemming from public policy. Second, delinquency recovery in Los Angeles slows because this area can be lumpy.

就結果範圍而言，我們指導的低端考慮了兩個因素，首先，公共政策導致的宏觀經濟疲軟。其次，由於洛杉磯地區治安狀況不佳，該地區的犯罪率恢復速度較慢。

As for potential factors for high end of the guidance range, first is an increase in hiring driving rent growth. We have seen a gradual positive trend in job openings in the 20 largest tech companies and this metric has been a reliable leading indicator of demand. The second factor is a more favorable operating environment as we are expecting an average decrease of 35% in multifamily supply deliveries in our markets in the second half of the year compared to the first.

至於指導範圍高端的潛在因素，首先是招募增加推動租金成長。我們看到 20 家最大科技公司的職缺呈現逐漸正向的趨勢，這項指標已成為需求的可靠領先指標。第二個因素是更有利的經營環境，我們預期下半年我們市場上的多戶型供應交付量將與上半年相比平均下降 35%。

Turning to the transaction market. Investor appetite for the West Coast multifamily properties remains healthy, with deal volumes slightly higher in the second quarter compared to the same period last year and average cap rates have remained in the mid-4% for institutional quality assets.

轉向交易市場。投資人對西海岸多戶型房產的興趣依然旺盛，第二季的交易量與去年同期相比略有上升，機構優質資產的平均資本化率仍維持在 4% 左右。

In the second quarter, we started to see a higher volume of transaction pricing in the low 4% in Northern California. In comparison, Essex is generating on average yields in the mid to high 4% from approximately $1 billion of acquisitions in Northern California over the last 12 months.

在第二季度，我們開始看到北加州 4% 以下的交易定價量增加。相比之下，艾塞克斯在過去 12 個月中從北加州約 10 億美元的收購中獲得的平均收益率在 4% 左右。

Our team has done a terrific job investing ahead of the cap rate compression resulting in immediate NAV accretion. Lastly, as we have maintained our disciplined capital allocation by funding the majority of these acquisitions with select dispositions, going forward, we will continue to arbitrage our cost of capital and reallocate our portfolio to optimize the risk-adjusted returns to drive NAV and core FFO per share accretion.

我們的團隊在資本化率壓縮之前進行了出色的投資，從而立即實現了資產淨值的成長。最後，由於我們透過選擇性處置為大部分收購提供資金，從而保持了嚴謹的資本配置，因此，未來我們將繼續套利資本成本並重新分配投資組合，以優化風險調整後的回報，從而推動每股資產淨值和核心 FFO 的成長。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Barb.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Barb。

Thanks, Angela. I'll begin with a recap of our second quarter results, followed by the components to our revised full year guidance and conclude with an update on capital markets and the balance sheet.

謝謝，安吉拉。我將首先回顧我們的第二季業績，然後介紹我們修訂後的全年指引的組成部分，最後介紹資本市場和資產負債表的最新情況。

Beginning with our second quarter results. We achieved a solid second quarter with core FFO per share exceeding the midpoint of our guidance range by $0.07. The primary driver of the beat relates to $0.04 from better same-property operations, of which half relates to higher same-property revenue growth and the other half relates to lower operating expenses. The expense reduction is driven by a 9% decline in Washington property taxes as compared to 2024. In addition, the quarter benefited from lower G&A, which is timing related.

從我們的第二季業績開始。我們第二季業績穩健，核心每股營運現金流量 (FFO) 超出我們預期區間中點 0.07 美元。業績超出預期的主因是同店營運業務的改善，其中一半源自於同店營收成長，另一半源自於營運費用的降低。費用減少的原因是，與 2024 年相比，華盛頓州的房產稅下降了 9%。此外，本季還受益於與時間相關的較低 G&A 成本。

Turning to our revised full year outlook. We are pleased to announce a $0.10 increase at the midpoint for core FFO per share to $15.91 contributing to the increase are three factors, first, we are raising the midpoint for same-property revenue growth by 15 basis points to 3.15%, driven by higher other income and better delinquency collections, partially offset by lower occupancy. Second, we are reducing our same-property expense midpoint by 50 basis points to 3.25% on account of lower property taxes, which I previously mentioned.

談到我們修改後的全年展望。我們很高興地宣布，核心 FFO 每股中點增加 0.10 美元至 15.91 美元，促成這一增長的因素有三個，首先，我們將同店收入增長中點提高 15 個基點至 3.15%，這得益於其他收入增加和拖欠款項收回情況改善，但入住率下降部分抵消了這一影響。其次，由於我之前提到的房產稅降低，我們將同房費用中點降低 50 個基點至 3.25%。

With these revisions, we now expect same property NOI to grow 3.1% at the midpoint, a 40 basis point improvement from our original guidance. The increase in same property NOI contributed $0.07 to our full year FFO guidance raise. The third component relates to our co-investment platform as our joint venture properties are performing ahead of plan.

經過這些修訂，我們現在預計同一房產的 NOI 中位數將成長 3.1%，比我們最初的指引提高 40 個基點。同一物業的 NOI 增長為我們的全年 FFO 指導增長貢獻了 0.07 美元。第三個組成部分與我們的共同投資平台有關，因為我們的合資企業的表現超出了計劃。

As for our third quarter core FFO guidance, we are forecasting $3.94 at the midpoint, a $0.09 sequential decline from the second quarter, primarily related to elevated operating expenses given typical seasonality in utilities and taxes, which is partially offset by higher sequential revenues.

至於我們第三季的核心 FFO 指導，我們預測中位數為 3.94 美元，比第二季環比下降 0.09 美元，主要由於公用事業和稅收的典型季節性導致營運費用增加，但環比收入增加部分抵消了這一影響。

For the third quarter, we are forecasting same-property operating expense growth to increase 3% on a year-over-year basis. In addition, preferred equity redemptions are expected to be back-end loaded, which is also causing a reduction in sequential core FFO.

對於第三季度，我們預測同店營業費用將年增 3%。此外，優先股贖回預計將以後端載入的方式進行，這也將導致核心 FFO 的連續減少。

Year to date, we have received approximately $30 million in redemptions and we expect an additional $175 million in proceeds before year-end. We are pleased with the progress we have made in executing our strategy to reduce the size of the book, even though it is causing a temporary headwind to core FFO growth.

今年迄今為止，我們已收到約 3,000 萬美元的贖回款，預計年底前還將獲得 1.75 億美元的收益。我們對執行縮減帳簿規模策略所取得的進展感到滿意，儘管這給核心 FFO 成長帶來了暫時的阻力。

At year-end, we anticipate the structured finance book will be less than 4% of core FFO and continued decline in 2026 and as we anticipate being repaid on the majority of our outstanding investments over the next four quarters, after which the earnings headwind will have largely abated.

我們預計，到年底，結構性融資帳簿將佔核心 FFO 的 4% 以下，並將在 2026 年繼續下降，因為我們預計大部分未償還投資將在未來四個季度內得到償還，此後盈利逆風將大幅減弱。

Lastly, a few comments on capital markets and the balance sheet. During the quarter, we executed several transactions to further enhance our balance sheet flexibility. We issued a $300 million delayed draw term loan, of which $150 million is drawn and fixed at an attractive 4.1% rate through April of 2030.

最後，對資本市場和資產負債表提出一些評論。本季度，我們執行了幾筆交易，以進一步增強我們的資產負債表靈活性。我們發放了 3 億美元的延期提取定期貸款，其中 1.5 億美元已提取，利率固定為 4.1%，有效期至 2030 年 4 月。

We also expanded our line of credit to $1.5 billion, while extending the maturity to 2030, and we established a commercial paper program. As a result of these financings, we further enhanced our balance sheet strength while optimizing our cost and access to capital.

我們還將信貸額度擴大至 15 億美元，同時將期限延長至 2030 年，並建立了商業票據計畫。透過這些融資，我們進一步增強了資產負債表實力，同時優化了成本和資本獲取管道。

With minimal refinancing needs in 2025, healthy net debt to EBITDA of 5.5 times and $1.5 billion in available liquidity, we are well-positioned. I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

由於 2025 年的再融資需求極低、淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 5.5 倍且擁有 15 億美元的可用流動資金，我們處於有利地位。我現在將把電話轉回給接線員以回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

I guess, first off, just turning to Los Angeles. Can you just talk a little bit more about what drove some of the weaker blended pricing? And then also, since you highlighted LA County, is there also sort of a specific like fire ordinance impact that's happened as maybe different than what was previously expected?

我想，首先，我們來談談洛杉磯。您能否再多談談導致混合定價疲軟的原因是什麼？而且，既然您強調了洛杉磯縣，那麼是否存在某種具體的影響，例如消防條例的影響，可能與先前預期的不同？

Hey Nick, it's Angela here. On Los Angeles, it has underperformed relative to our expectations. And it's really a couple of different factors. It's not related to the fire ordinance, it's now a legislative concern. It's more of -- the supply is heavier in the first half, which of course, we knew that was going to be an impact.

嘿，尼克，我是安琪拉。在洛杉磯，它的表現低於我們的預期。這實際上有幾個不同的因素。這與消防條例無關，現在這是立法問題。更重要的是——上半年的供應量更大，當然，我們知道這會產生影響。

And the delinquency recovery is taking time. And what we had hoped for was that we could make progress sooner because of the progress we made from last year to this year. But so far, first half is it's moving along. It's just not improving at such a great rate.

而拖欠債務的恢復也需要時間。而我們所希望的是，透過去年到今年所取得的進步，我們能夠更快地取得進展。但到目前為止，上半部一切進展順利。只是改善的速度沒有那麼快。

And then the last factor is really it's a soft demand environment. And what we're seeing the soft demand environment is actually not just Los Angeles, it's Southern California as a whole. And I just want to remind everyone that Southern California mirrors the US economy and the US economy has been soft.

最後一個因素其實是軟需求環境。我們看到的需求疲軟環境其實不只是洛杉磯，而是整個南加州。我只是想提醒大家，南加州的經濟狀況反映了美國經濟的狀況，而美國經濟一直疲軟。

It's not broken. It's not -- it doesn't have any we're not seeing cracks, but it's been soft. And so for those reasons, Southern California as a whole, which is 40% of our portfolio has been more of a drag and what we expect is that in the second half, the one benefit is that the supply is declining. So supply in the first half is actually 68% of total supply in Southern California. So that is one benefit.

它沒壞。它沒有——我們沒有看到裂縫，但它很柔軟。因此，由於這些原因，整個南加州（占我們投資組合的 40%）受到了更大的拖累，我們預計下半年唯一的好處是供應量會下降。因此上半年的供應量實際上佔南加州總供應量的 68%。所以這是一個好處。

And we certainly have seen offsets from our Northern regions that has benefited our overall performance with Northern California and of course, strength in Seattle.

我們確實看到了來自北部地區的補償，這有利於我們在北加州的整體表現，當然也有利於西雅圖的實力。

And then I guess the second question is just on Northern California. I know you gave -- I think you gave some numbers on how the blended rate growth trended there and market was outperforming. Maybe you could just -- maybe if we sort of take a step back a little bit because I know everyone tends to focus a bit on blended rate growth, and there's talk about -- I think you said that, that's sort of moderates in the back half of the year.

我想第二個問題是關於北加州的。我知道您給了——我認為您給了一些關於混合利率成長趨勢和市場表現優異的數據。也許你可以——也許我們可以稍微退一步，因為我知道每個人都傾向於關注混合利率的增長，而且有討論——我想你說過，這是下半年的溫和趨勢。

But I mean is that masking though, what is perhaps sort of bigger strength not being appreciated in Northern California that even if it's not showing maybe continued acceleration in the back half of the year that there's some other impact and benefit to the portfolio that's not fully showing up right now in terms of like the increase in guidance that you gave?

但我的意思是，這是否掩蓋了北加州可能未被重視的更大優勢，即使它沒有顯示出下半年的持續加速，但對投資組合還有其他影響和好處，但目前還沒有完全顯現出來，比如您給出的指導增加？

Hey Nick, yeah, that's a great question. We are seeing strength in Northern California. And what I think has been a little confusing is really two factors. One is that we had expected a solid performance from Northern California, and we are seeing job postings to gradually increase, which of course, it does lag from that perspective. And the -- when we look at the seasonal curve in Northern California, it's performing actually slightly better than we had expected.

嘿，尼克，是的，這是一個很好的問題。我們看到了北加州的實力。我認為有點令人困惑的實際上是兩個因素。一是我們原本預計北加州會有穩健的表現，而且我們看到招募資訊正在逐步增加，當然，從這個角度來看，北加州的表現確實落後了。當我們觀察北加州的季節性曲線時，它的表現實際上比我們預期的要好一些。

I think what's confusing is the blended and how that is presented across our peers because everyone defines it differently. And so let me just step back and explain our blended lease for a second. Our blended lease, what we try to do is provide an apples-to-apples for like-to-like, for example, 9 to 15 months leases. But that doesn't present all leases. What impacts our financials is all leases, so the -- what's showing up that's reported is about 75% of the leases signed.

我認為令人困惑的是混合以及它如何在我們的同行中呈現，因為每個人對它的定義都不同。因此，請容許我稍微解釋一下我們的混合租賃。我們的混合租賃試圖提供同類的租賃方案，例如 9 至 15 個月的租賃。但這並未列出所有租約。影響我們財務狀況的是所有租賃，因此，報告中顯示的已簽署租賃約佔 75%。

If we use all leases, new lease rates would flip from 70 basis points as reported to 3.3%. I know that's a huge delta, which is why we try to shy away from doing all because there is more volatility. But that 25% makes a difference because that represents corporates, which typically has a 15% to 25% premium and of course, the short-term leases, which has a higher premium.

如果我們使用所有租賃，新的租賃利率將從報告的 70 個基點變為 3.3%。我知道這是一個巨大的差異，這就是為什麼我們試圖避免做所有事情，因為這樣波動性更大。但這 25% 是有區別的，因為它代表企業，通常有 15% 到 25% 的溢價，當然還有短期租賃，溢價更高。

And so our blend if we use all leases, it will be 4% versus 3%. And once again, that's what hits our financials. And I think the other factor that can be a little confusing is that people expect the blend to continue to accelerate throughout the year. But that would be contrary to the common that we have achieved our seasonal peak, which is normal. July is a normal time for us to peak.

因此，如果我們使用所有租賃，我們的混合比例將是 4% 對 3%。這再一次對我們的財務狀況造成了打擊。我認為另一個可能有點令人困惑的因素是人們預計混合將在全年繼續加速。但這與我們達到季節性高峰的普遍情況相反，這是正常的。七月是我們達到巔峰的正常時間。

And therefore, the rest of the year, this is normal seasonality, it's going to decelerate. And it would be unusual for the blend to actually be higher in any normal environment. The one caveat is that if we see a greater strength on the macro economy, if hirings pick up in a meaningful way, for example. Then yes, then we could see that. And then we could see a situation where the seasonal peak actually gets prolonged, which is not what we're currently observing.

因此，今年剩餘時間是正常的季節性現象，成長將會放緩。在任何正常環境下，混合物的含量實際上更高都是不尋常的。需要注意的是，如果我們看到宏觀經濟實力增強，例如招募數量顯著增加。是的，然後我們就能看到。然後我們可能會看到季節性高峰實際上延長的情況，這不是我們目前觀察到的情況。

And I think we've all experienced a lot of the noise with public policy and the lack of clarity there. And so I do think companies have been more reticent in hiring and investing, which, of course, impacts our growth. And that's really what we're experiencing here. But Northern California is doing just fine.

我認為我們都經歷過公共政策方面的許多噪音和缺乏清晰度的情況。因此我確實認為公司在招聘和投資方面更加謹慎，這當然會影響我們的成長。這確實是我們在這裡所經歷的。但北加州的情況很好。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布、派珀·桑德勒。

So just, Andrew, just to go back and maybe this was all our sort of misunderstanding of the fire impact on housing. But presumably, we would have thought that LA would have seen a pickup in demand. And I know that you guys and others articulated that, hey, single-family people are different than apartment people, which clearly is the case but also the COVID unit replacement taking this long. I mean, we're five years past.

所以，安德魯，回想一下，也許這都是我們對火災對住房影響的誤解。但據推測，我們會認為洛杉磯的需求會回升。我知道你們和其他人都明確表示過，獨戶住宅居民與公寓居民不同，這顯然是事實，而且 COVID 單元更換也需要這麼長時間。我的意思是，我們已經過去五年了。

So are there other dynamics at work? Like is this more just the Hollywood spillover, the strikes or fall out of port workers who got laid off, just trying to understand the dynamic because I would have expected at least a little bit better, maybe not the strength of Northern Cali or Seattle, but still would have expected that the -- between the COVID units and just absorption, it would have been a little bit faster this year, not what seems to be slower.

那麼還有其他因素在起作用嗎？這是否只是好萊塢的溢出效應、被解僱的港口工人的罷工或失業，只是想了解其中的動態，因為我原本預計至少會好一點，也許沒有北加州或西雅圖那麼強，但仍然預計——在 COVID 單位和吸收之間，今年的速度會更快一些，而不是看起來更慢。

Yeah. Alex, that's a great question. And we share your view in that we didn't expect LA to just suddenly take off. But we did expect that on the occupancy side that it would run a little tighter, which is where we had forecasted.

是的。亞歷克斯，這個問題問得很好。我們同意你的觀點，我們並沒有想到洛杉磯會突然起飛。但我們確實預期入住率方面會稍微緊張一些，這也符合我們的預測。

And what we are experiencing is that overall macroeconomy softness, which of course, has an impact on LA. And of course, keep in mind, yes, we're five years since COVID, that's 2020, but LA was shut down for three years, evasion moratorium lasted three years. We're only in the second half, the back half of the second year of this recovery. And it's a huge economy is going to take more time.

我們正在經歷的是整體宏觀經濟的疲軟，這當然對洛杉磯產生了影響。當然，請記住，是的，距離新冠疫情已經過去五年了，也就是 2020 年，但洛杉磯關閉了三年，逃稅禁令也持續了三年。我們目前僅處於經濟復甦的第二年下半年、後半段。而且，龐大的經濟體還需要更多時間。

What we have not done is we have not redline LA because there is a lot going for LA. And it is the largest economy in terms of by county with over $1 trillion of GDP and with the infrastructure investment that's earmarked for LA for the World Cup and the Olympics, the latest estimate is over $80 billion. And so we do see that the market has been stable. So that's great.

我們沒有做的是沒有對洛杉磯進行紅線劃定，因為洛杉磯有很多事情要做。以國家計算，洛杉磯是最大的經濟體，國內生產總值超過 1 兆美元，加上為舉辦世界盃和奧運而撥給洛杉磯的基礎設施投資，最新估計將超過 800 億美元。因此我們確實看到市場一直保持穩定。這太棒了。

It's remained at that low 95% occupancy hasn't picked up as much as we would like. Having said that, we do see positive environment moving forward.

入住率仍然保持在 95% 的低位，沒有達到我們所希望的水平。話雖如此，我們確實看到了積極的發展環境。

Okay. And then the second question is on your mezz platform, you guys have a long track record of making a lot of money. I know that you don't include the gains in core FFO, but you guys have created a lot of value over time, but it almost sounds like you're maybe not fully exiting, but dramatically scaling back.

好的。第二個問題是，在你們的夾層平台上，你們有著長期賺大錢的紀錄。我知道你們沒有將收益計入核心 FFO，但你們隨著時間的推移創造了很多價值，但這聽起來你們可能並沒有完全退出，而是大幅縮減了規模。

So two parts. One, why the decision to scale back when you have a successful track record and two, Barb, can you just articulate the fourth quarter FFO impact because obviously, the number is below where consensus is.

所以分為兩部分。第一，既然你已經擁有成功的業績紀錄，為什麼還要決定要縮減規模？第二，Barb，你能否清楚地說明第四季度 FFO 的影響，因為很明顯，這個數字低於普遍預期。

So trying to understand how much of that below -- the implied below is just from the debt preferred FFO going away versus others. So one is why the dramatic scale back into the FFO impact in the fourth quarter.

因此，試圖理解下面有多少——下面隱含的只是來自債務優先 FFO 相對於其他的消失。其中一個原因是為什麼第四季 FFO 的影響會大幅縮小。

Yeah, Alex, this is Barb. You are correct. We do have a long successful track record in this business, and we are going to remain in the business, just not to the level of scale that we got this book too. So the book got to $700 million, and it became 9% of our FFO back in '22, '23, and it creates a lot of volatility in earnings. And we think it's more appropriate to have it a much smaller size.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是芭布。你是對的。我們在這個行業確實有著長期成功的記錄，而且我們將繼續從事這個行業，只是規模不會達到我們出版這本書的水平。因此帳面價值達到了 7 億美元，並在 2022 年和 2023 年占我們 FFO 的 9%，這給了收益很大的波動。我們認為將其尺寸設得小一些更為合適。

We think investing the money into stabilized multifamily assets leased to better quality of cash flow and cash flow growth and NAV growth. And so this will be a portion of our company, but it's going to be smaller in that 3% of our FFO going forward. And then in terms of our impact to the fourth quarter, it's about $0.06 because we are -- the maturities are kind of evenly balanced between the third and the fourth quarter, and they are pretty median.

我們認為將資金投資於穩定的多戶型資產租賃可以提高現金流品質、現金流量成長和資產淨值成長。因此，這將成為我們公司的一部分，但在未來，它在我們 FFO 的 3% 中所佔的比例將會更小。就我們對第四季度的影響而言，大約為 0.06 美元，因為我們 - 第三季度和第四季度之間的到期日是均衡的，而且相當中位數。

And so that's what's driving that fourth quarter reduction. From a modeling perspective, you should assume that the 10% coupon we're earning on the mezz and preferred equity investments is rolling down to a 5%, which is where we're investing for new stabilized assets at.

這就是導致第四季減產的原因。從建模的角度來看，您應該假設我們在夾層和優先股投資中獲得的 10% 票面利率正在下降到 5%，這就是我們投資新穩定資產的水平。

And just to be clear, yeah --

需要明確的是，--

It's Angela here. I just want to point to, you've seen us diverting or reallocating our investments, very much focused on fee simple assets and in Northern California and back to when the pref equity book was up to 9% FFO, the dynamics were completely different.

我是安琪拉。我只是想指出，您已經看到我們轉移或重新分配我們的投資，主要集中在北加州的完全所有權資產上，當優先股帳面價值高達 9% FFO 時，情況就完全不同了。

We were not developing because cost was increasing higher than revenues or rent growth, that was one. And in addition to that, the rent growth actually was pretty darn close on long-term CAGR. So it made sense to lean into prep equity at that point, and it was a great way to complement our development pipeline.

我們沒有發展，因為成本的成長速度高於收入或租金的成長速度，這是其中之一。除此之外，租金成長其實與長期複合年增長率非常接近。因此，在那個時候依靠準備股權是有意義的，而且這是補充我們的開發管道的好方法。

So the world is very different now. And of course, we would want to shift our strategy to make sure that we're optimizing our returns to whenever possible. And then the one thing I do want to complement your firm is that just on a separate note, that I thought Piper Sandler published a really good now on the impact of AI and jobs and the developers. I thought that was a thoughtful piece. So I thought your tech team should know that.

所以現在的世界已經大不相同了。當然，我們希望改變我們的策略，以確保盡可能優化我們的回報。然後，我確實想補充貴公司的一件事，另外，我認為 Piper Sandler 發表了一篇關於人工智慧、就業和開發人員影響的非常好的文章。我認為那是一篇經過深思熟慮的文章。所以我認為你的技術團隊應該知道這一點。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。

Can you talk about what you're seeing for concessions in LA? Is the year-over-year activity higher? Or is it just more broad spend, more widespread on the rent side and not the concession side?

您能談談您對洛杉磯特許經營的看法嗎？同比活動量是否更高？或者這只是更廣泛的支出，在租金方面更為廣泛，而不是在優惠方面？

Yeah. Concessions has remained elevated relative to the rest of the portfolio for LA. So if I compare just this year to Q2 last year, it's slightly higher. And going forward, now we're not talking much dramatically higher. We're talking about somewhere a little over a week and so it remains more higher than the portfolio. It's not getting dramatically worse or better.

是的。相對於洛杉磯投資組合的其他部分，其優惠仍然較高。因此，如果我將今年與去年第二季進行比較，我會發現它略高一些。展望未來，我們現在談論的不會大幅提高。我們談論的時間大約是一周多一點，因此它仍然高於投資組合。情況並沒有顯著惡化或改善。

Okay. Got it. And then, Barb, you guys have the commercial paper program now. Is there a significant savings on that versus the revolver? And just how do you plan to leverage that tool versus how you would historically use the revolver?

好的。知道了。然後，芭布，你們現在有了商業票據計畫。與左輪手槍相比，這能節省很多錢嗎？那麼，與您過去使用左輪手槍的方式相比，您計劃如何利用該工具？

Yeah, that's correct. It's about 70 basis points difference in borrowing costs between our line of credit and commercial paper program. Historically, though, we have not utilized our line as a permanent source of capital. We've used it as a temporary bridge to permanent financing. And so going forward, how we'll be using the CP program is very similar.

是的，沒錯。我們的信用額度和商業票據計畫之間的借貸成本差異約為 70 個基點。但從歷史上看，我們並沒有將我們的生產線用作永久的資本來源。我們將其用作實現永久融資的臨時橋樑。因此，展望未來，我們使用 CP 程序的方式非常相似。

We don't expect to have a large balance on that over long periods of time. You will see it pop up when we are a temporary bridging financing. But overall, we don't expect to utilize it in a different way than how we've utilized our line historically.

我們並不期望在很長一段時間內在這方面有太大的平衡。當我們進行臨時過橋融資時，您會看到它彈出。但總體而言，我們並不期望以不同於我們過去使用生產線的方式使用它。

Eric Wolfe, Citibank.

花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。

I want to return back to the guidance for blended rent growth in the back half. I mean it looks like you only lowered it a little bit from around, call it, 3% to 2.7%. And your second quarter was in line with your guidance. So I was just curious if it was more recent pricing that caused you to lower it. If you're trying to communicate something around market rent growth sort of shifting in certain markets and to whatever extent you can discuss recent trends on new and renewal leases that would help as well.

我想回到下半年混合租金成長的指導。我的意思是，看起來你只是把它降低了一點點，從 3% 到 2.7%。您的第二季業績符合您的預期。所以我只是好奇是不是最近的定價導致你降低了價格。如果您想傳達有關市場租金成長的某些訊息，例如某些市場的變化，以及您可以討論新租約和續約的最新趨勢，這也會有所幫助。

Yeah. No, that's a good question. In terms of our view of the second half, we do have the blended decelerating. Having said that, it's also typical of the normal seasonal curve. It's just the normal seasonality of our business.

是的。不，這是個好問題。就我們對下半年的看法而言，我們確實存在混合減速的情況。話雖如此，這也是正常的季節性曲線的典型特徵。這只是我們業務的正常季節性。

And so for example, if I look at our new lease rates for the fourth quarter for the estimate. Actual last year, new lease rates decline down to 190 basis points. And we've said that in the past where our loss to lease by year-end actually become a gain to lease, once again, not unusual.

例如，如果我查看第四季度的新租賃率進行估算。實際去年，新租賃利率下降至190個基點。我們過去曾說過，到年底我們的租賃損失實際上變成了租賃收益，這並不罕見。

This year, the peak, obviously is not as strong as last year. It's still on plan and -- which means we are expecting a more modest deceleration, but you don't know what that level is, but we're assuming a negative 70 basis points on new lease rates, just as an example.

今年的巔峰，明顯沒有去年那麼強勁。它仍在計劃中——這意味著我們預計減速幅度會比較小，但你不知道減速程度是多少，但我們假設新租賃利率為負 70 個基點，這只是舉個例子。

Okay. So your original guidance expected something maybe a little bit stronger because supply is coming down and you're putting that into your assumption versus now your forecasting something that is sort of similar to your historical pattern? Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。所以，您最初的指導預期可能會稍微強勁一些，因為供應正在下降，而您將其納入您的假設中，而不是現在預測與歷史模式類似的情況？這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yeah, Eric, this is Barb. I think the other component is just LA. It didn't take off like we thought it might. It's been more anemic and so that has a bigger impact to the fourth quarter because LA seasonality is a little different than maybe the broader Northern California and P&W markets. So that's the other factor in the fourth quarter that changed.

是的，艾瑞克，這是巴布。我認為另一個組成部分就是洛杉磯。它並沒有像我們想像的那樣起飛。它變得更加疲軟，因此對第四季度的影響更大，因為洛杉磯的季節性與更廣泛的北加州和 P&W 市場略有不同。這是第四季發生變化的另一個因素。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jana Galan。

A question for Rylan, if you could provide some details on the strategy to go forward with the new joint venture focused on structured finance investments, it sounded like your preference at this point in the cycle was to buy on balance sheet, but just curious what's kind of -- what you're seeing on cap rates.

我要問 Rylan 一個問題，如果您可以提供一些關於推進專注於結構化融資投資的新合資企業的策略的細節，聽起來您在這個週期階段傾向於在資產負債表上購買，但我好奇您在資本化率方面看到了什麼。

Good question. Again, this goes back to Barb's comment earlier, where strategically, we're trying to target an FFO contribution from pref mezz, that's sub-4% of FFO. So we've had a lot of partner interest in this business given our track record of success and relationships as it relates to preferred and mezz, and so this allows us to stay in the business and really select the highest risk-adjusted reward opportunities while managing that earnings volatility inherent in some of the shorter-term investments.

好問題。再次，這回到了 Barb 之前的評論，從戰略上講，我們正試圖瞄準來自 pref mezz 的 FFO 貢獻，即低於 4% 的 FFO。鑑於我們在優先股和夾層證券方面的成功記錄和良好關係，許多合作夥伴對這項業務感興趣，這使我們能夠繼續從事這項業務，真正選擇最高風險調整後回報的機會，同時管理一些短期投資固有的收益波動。

Thanks, Ryan. And then, Angela, thank you for all the detailed comments on the like-for-like blended rent spreads. But it still seems like the initial guidance, there was an expectation, the blended growth in the second half would be a little bit lower -- I'm sorry, in the first half would be lower than in the second half. And then so just trying to better understand kind of if you're seeing if it's a year-over-year, why that would need -- the blends would need to decelerate in the second half now?

謝謝，瑞安。然後，安吉拉，感謝您對同類混合租金差價的所有詳細評論。但它仍然看起來像是最初的指引，有一個預期，下半年的混合成長會稍微低一點——對不起，上半年會低於下半年。那麼，只是想更好地理解一下，如果您看到的是同比情況，為什麼現在需要——混合物需要在下半年減速？

Well, the first half, Jana, actually we outperformed our expectations in the first half. And it's really strength of Northern California, which is a good -- it's a quality beat. That's what Barb calls it. And so what we're expecting is second half just the same approach we did when we had an earnings call last quarter, which is we assume the second quarter will perform as on plan. And therefore, right now, what we're doing is we are expecting that the second half will perform on plan as our original plan.

嗯，Jana，實際上上半年我們的表現超出了我們的預期。這確實是北加州的優勢，這是一種很好的——高品質的節拍。這就是 Barb 的叫法。因此，我們對下半年的預期與上個季度財報電話會議時的做法相同，即我們假設第二季度的表現將與計劃一致。因此，現在，我們預計下半年將按照我們原計劃進行。

And so the -- you may be expecting a greater rate, but it's really not going to because we're just -- it's really the strength of the first half, driven by the first quarter.

因此，您可能期望成長率更高，但實際上不會，因為我們只是——這實際上是由第一季推動的上半年的強勁成長。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Angela, I appreciate all the detail on kind of the like-for-like leases versus all leases. I'm interested in how much of that benefit in 2Q to new lease rate growth is seasonal related and typically reverses in the back half of the year? And then I guess for that all lease metric, what did you expect at the outset of the year versus what you're expecting now within the revised guidance?

安吉拉，我很欣賞關於同類租賃與所有租賃的所有細節。我感興趣的是，第二季新租賃率成長的收益有多少是與季節相關的，並且通常會在下半年出現逆轉？然後我想，對於所有租賃指標，您在年初的預期與修訂後的指引中現在的預期有何不同？

Austin, good question. On the second quarter, it's about 260 basis points higher on new leases when you look at the all versus just a like-for-like. So it's a big variation. And the blend is -- which resulted in the blend of 100 basis points greater. And of course, as you mentioned, it's going to decel more.

奧斯汀，好問題。就第二季而言，如果以整體來看，新租賃價格比同期價格高出約 260 個基點。所以這是一個很大的改變。混合結果是－混合結果高出 100 個基點。當然，正如您所說，它還會進一步減速。

And so we are assuming that the full year blend on all lease basis to land close to 3%. And original guidance, Barb, would you comment on that? I don't have one with me.

因此，我們假設全年所有租賃的混合比例接近 3%。那麼最初的指導，Barb，您對此有何評論？我身邊沒有。

Yeah, Austin, there's a couple of puts and takes there. So we -- in terms of our top line, we assumed 2.3% scheduled rent growth, which is factored with all this blended rent growth. That's what goes into it. Because if we outperformed in the first half of the year, there is a carry-forward effect that offsets the lower blend in the fourth quarter. And so we're still in line with our full year forecast on that aspect of our budget.

是的，奧斯汀，那裡有幾個地方要注意。因此，就我們的營業收入而言，我們假設預定租金成長率為 2.3%，這是考慮到所有混合租金成長的因素。這就是其中的內容。因為如果我們在上半年表現出色，那麼就會產生結轉效應，抵銷第四季度較低的混合度。因此，我們對預算的這一方面的全年預測仍然一致。

That's helpful. And then I think on last quarter's call, you had talked about achieving renewals around the high 3% range for April. I take it went out a little bit higher than that. And clearly, that metric improved through the quarter. Do you think you can continue to achieve that low to mid-4% level moving forward? Or is some of the pressure you're seeing in Southern California could lead for that renewal piece to moderate?

這很有幫助。然後我想在上個季度的電話會議上，您曾談到實現 4 月續約率在 3% 左右。我認為它比那要高一點。顯然，該指標在本季有所改善。您認為未來您還能繼續維持 4% 左右的低點嗎？或者，您所看到的南加州的一些壓力是否會導致復興進程放緩？

That's an excellent question, and I wish I had a crystal ball. And what I can tell you that for the second quarter as a whole, we sent renewals out at about 4.3% for the whole portfolio. We landed at 4.2%. We didn't need to negotiate much, which is terrific. And if you look at the components, essentially Southern California remains soft, and it was offset mostly from the Northern regions.

這是一個非常好的問題，我希望我有一個水晶球。我可以告訴大家，整個第二季度，我們整個投資組合的續約率約為 4.3%。我們達到了 4.2%。我們不需要進行太多談判，這太棒了。如果你看一下各個組成部分，你會發現南加州基本上仍然保持疲軟，並且主要受到北部地區的抵消。

As far as August, September, we're sending renewals out slightly higher in Q2, which is a good trend. So in the mid-4s. The question here is how much will we need to negotiate. And we just -- it's just too early to tell at this point. but it is a good sign that we're sending out renewals at comparable or slightly better levels.

就八月和九月而言，我們第二季的續訂量略有增加，這是一個好趨勢。所以在 4 秒中期。這裡的問題是我們需要談判多少。而我們——現在下結論還太早。但這是一個好兆頭，顯示我們發出的續約數量與之前相當，甚至略高一些。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great. Rylan, maybe a question for you. I think some of the comments here earlier in the call talked about cap rates compressing, you guys feeling good about buying ahead of the move. I think you've been buying in the mid-4s -- mid to high 4s. So can you talk about where cap rates are now? Are they below 4, low 4s? And where do you see them heading?

偉大的。Rylan，我想問你一個問題。我認為電話會議早些時候的一些評論談到了資本化率的壓縮，你們對於提前購買感到滿意。我認為您購買的是 4 中段至 4 段高段的價格。那麼可以談談現在的資本化率是多少嗎？它們是否低於 4，低於 4？您認為他們的未來走向如何？

Jamie, Yeah. I would say buying market rate for the past year, we've been over almost $1 billion in Northern California. We've been the largest buyer along the Peninsula over the past year. And market cap rates on average are slightly above 4.5%. But again, our platform, we've been hitting closer to a 5% cap rate, and that was consistent with the two acquisitions we were able to source in the second quarter in an off-market transaction.

傑米，是的。我想說，以過去一年的市場價格計算，我們在北加州的支出已經超過 10 億美元。過去一年來，我們一直是半島最大的買家。平均市場資本化率略高於 4.5%。但是，我們的平台已經達到了接近 5% 的資本化率，這與我們在第二季度透過場外交易完成的兩次收購一致。

We have seen cap rates compress. I think as Northern California and San Francisco have outperformed the nation. You've seen incremental buyers step in. And a lot of the deals that were recently listed in recent months have guided in several instances, traded in that low 4% range. I think in the city of San Francisco, it's actually when you factor in the mansion tax or buying an equivalent basis of around 4%.

我們已經看到資本化率在壓縮。我認為北加州和舊金山的表現優於全國。您已經看到越來越多的買家加入。最近幾個月上市的許多交易在多個案例中都得到了指導，交易價格都在 4% 的低位範圍內。我認為在舊金山市，當你考慮到豪宅稅或購買等值基礎時，這實際上是 4% 左右。

So there are instances of deals transacting in some cases, below 4 cap, but I would say the average now in Northern California is for a marketed deal is probably in that 4.25 for a well-located institutional product.

因此，在某些情況下，交易額會低於 4 倍上限，但我想說，目前北加州市場交易的平均價格對於位置優越的機構產品來說可能在 4.25 倍左右。

So we've been able to do better over the past year, and this is, as you would expect, as prices change, our return expectations changed and our capital allocation preferences will also evolve in light of this environment.

因此，我們在過去一年中做得更好，正如您所期望的那樣，隨著價格的變化，我們的回報預期也發生了變化，我們的資本配置偏好也將根據這種環境而變化。

So I remain optimistic that we're going to be able to continue to source opportunities at better yields where we can generate accretion and allocate to the highest risk-adjusted returns. But it has gotten more competitive in Northern California.

因此，我仍然樂觀地認為，我們將能夠繼續尋找更高收益的機會，從而實現增值並分配最高風險調整後的回報。但在北加州，競爭變得更加激烈。

Okay. And I guess given your success there buying ahead of the curve, LA clearly struggling hard to know when it gets better. I mean any -- and I know you've sold there and redeployed into Northern California, but any thoughts to go in the other way, get very early in the cycle and probably find better opportunities in Los Angeles or still feel invest about reallocating into Northern California and keeping your ships there?

好的。我想，鑑於你們在那裡提前收購的成功，洛杉磯顯然正在苦苦掙扎，不知道情況何時會好轉。我的意思是——我知道你已經在那裡賣掉了資產，並重新部署到北加州，但有沒有想過反過來，在周期的早期就進入這個階段，可能在洛杉磯找到更好的機會，或者仍然想投資重新分配到北加州，把你的船隻留在那裡？

Yeah, Jamie, as you would expect, as I mentioned, as these prices changes, our preferences change. So we underwrite everything on the West Coast, and we are going to be tracking LA very closely. What I would say is that a lot of the well-located submarkets in LA maybe surprisingly to some people, still trade in that mid to high 4% range. Glendale, Pasadena, West LA.

是的，傑米，正如你所料，正如我所提到的，隨著這些價格的變化，我們的偏好也會改變。因此，我們承保西海岸的一切，並且我們將密切關注洛杉磯。我想說的是，洛杉磯許多地理位置優越的子市場的交易價格可能令一些人感到驚訝，但仍然在 4% 的中高範圍內。格倫代爾、帕薩迪納、西洛杉磯。

There's still very competitive markets. Downtown LA is one notable exception where there's been a few transactions and cap rates are given some of the property cash flow challenges in that submarket. There's probably a little bit more variability and cap rates are higher, again, unlimited transaction activity, but we are tracking it closely. And again, for the right opportunity, we would definitely be there.

市場競爭仍然非常激烈。洛杉磯市中心是一個顯著的例外，該子市場中存在一些交易，資本化率面臨一些房地產現金流挑戰。可能會有更多的變化，資本化率也會更高，交易活動也會不受限制，但我們正在密切追蹤。再說一次，如果有合適的機會，我們一定會去。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Great. Just wanted to ask about 2Q pulling the rate growth. I think it was exactly in line what you had guided to a quarter ago. So I just wanted to ask kind of what were the puts and takes there, right? Was it renewals or better, new leases or worse, vice versa?

偉大的。只是想問一下第二季拉動利率成長的情況。我認為這與您一個季度前所指導的完全一致。所以我只是想問那裡的情況是怎麼樣的，對嗎？是續約還是更好，是新租約還是更糟，反之亦然？

In terms of specific markets, I mean I would imagine LA probably came in worse than you thought, but maybe just breaking down that if you can quantify that at all, sort of how much worse was LA than maybe what you had thought a quarter ago? And how much better is a result where the other markets?

就具體市場而言，我的意思是，我認為洛杉磯的情況可能比你想像的更糟糕，但如果你能量化這一點，那麼洛杉磯的情況比你一個季度前想像的糟糕多少？而其他市場的結果又有多好呢？

Yeah. No, that's a good question. LA certainly underperformed. LA, blended came in below 1.5%, so close to, say, 1.3%.

是的。不，這是個好問題。洛杉磯的表現確實不佳。洛杉磯的混合汽油價格低於 1.5%，因此接近 1.3%。

And we had expected that Southern California as a whole, and of course, with LA, we do would be a little bit north of that 2%. And so that's probably the biggest factor on the second quarter, but of course, renewal came in a lot stronger. But keep in mind, our strategy is not to focus just on one specific metric. And I do -- and I caution on getting too hyper focused on whether it's new lease rates, specifically or only renewals because the way we run our business is we want to maximize revenues.

我們原本預計整個南加州，當然還有洛杉磯，其成長率會略高於這 2%。這可能是第二季最大的因素，但當然，更新也發揮了更強勁的作用。但請記住，我們的策略不是只專注於一個特定的指標。我確實如此——並且我警告不要過於關注新的租賃費率，特別是續約費率，因為我們經營業務的方式是希望實現收入最大化。

And so our goal is to generate new lease rates in a way that can be net positive. Keep in mind, there is a cost to incurring turnover, and it can be expensive. I mean, two weeks of downtime is -- I mean, one week of downtime is 2%.

因此，我們的目標是以淨正的方式產生新的租賃率。請記住，發生營業額是有成本的，而且成本可能很高。我的意思是，兩週的停機時間是——我的意思是，一周的停機時間是 2%。

And so in the current environment, where we're talking about a moderate growth in overall economy, especially for Southern California, it's more beneficial to reduce turnover friction and maintain a stable occupancy and so you'll see us toggle between renewals and new leases with being mindful of occupancy to maximize rents. And so that's why we try to point people back to look at the blend, look at that occupancy and look at our total revenues because that's the big ball that we just -- we're very focused on that.

因此，在當前環境下，我們談論的是整體經濟的溫和增長，特別是對於南加州而言，減少營業額摩擦和保持穩定的入住率更有利，因此您會看到我們在續約和新租約之間切換，同時注意入住率以最大化租金。因此，這就是為什麼我們試圖讓人們回顧一下混合情況，看看入住率，看看我們的總收入，因為這是我們非常關注的大問題——我們非常關注這一點。

That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, just capital allocation priorities, and we've talked about acquisitions here a bit. We've talked about the sort of the mezz book business, how would you sort of stack rank your capital allocation priorities today? I know development rate is back as well. I know you started the project last quarter. Could you maybe just stack rank the different opportunities in terms of capital allocation here?

這真的很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，只是資本配置優先事項，我們在這裡討論了收購。我們已經討論了夾層帳簿業務，您今天將如何對資本配置優先順序進行排序？我知道開發率也恢復了。我知道你上個季度啟動了這個專案。您能否根據資本配置對不同的機會進行排序？

Hi, this is Rylan here. I would still put fee simple acquisitions relative to our cost of capital and the risks inherent in development as probably our top priority. We are underwriting a lot of development land sites, but the economics continue to remain challenging. So you need to find the few opportunities. And then again, in the structured finance book.

大家好，我是 Rylan。我仍然會把相對於我們的資本成本和開發固有風險的絕對所有權收購視為我們的首要任務。我們正在承保許多開髮用地，但經濟狀況依然嚴峻。所以你需要找到一些機會。然後再說一下結構化金融書籍。

There's been a lot of capital raised to invest in that pref mezz space over the past several years. So I think it's really important that we remain disciplined at this point in light of those capital. So the one deal we did this quarter is we really like the submarket of South San Francisco. We really like the economics of this deal. And as importantly is we've got a great development partner on this project as well that's going to stand behind the project.

過去幾年來，已經籌集了大量資金來投資該優先夾層空間。因此，我認為，鑑於這些資本，我們現在保持紀律非常重要。因此，我們本季達成的一項交易是我們非常看好南舊金山的子市場。我們真的很喜歡這筆交易的經濟效益。同樣重要的是，我們在這個專案上也擁有一位出色的開發合作夥伴，他將為該專案提供支援。

So again, you just have to be really selective in these types of environments, but we still think there's value to be had on the acquisition opportunity to answer your question most directly.

所以，再說一次，在這種環境下你必須非常謹慎地選擇，但我們仍然認為收購機會是有價值的，可以最直接地回答你的問題。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

I'm not sure if you addressed this, but your guidance for blended implies 2.7% in the second half of the year. I was wondering if you could split that out between the third and fourth quarter. I think you implied there's some seasonality in there. And how are you thinking about earn-in for 2026?

我不確定您是否解決了這個問題，但您對混合的指導意味著下半年的成長率為 2.7%。我想知道您是否可以將其分為第三和第四季度。我認為你暗示了其中存在一些季節性。您對於 2026 年的收入有何看法？

Hi, John, it's Barb. Yeah, in the third quarter, our blended -- what's baked in our guidance is a little bit lower than the second quarter, but not too much lower. It's really the fourth quarter where we expect the blended to be closer to 2% versus being at 3% now. So that's really the decel that we are expecting is really in the fourth quarter of the year. And what was your second question, sorry?

你好，約翰，我是芭布。是的，在第三季度，我們的綜合預期比第二季度略低，但不會低太多。我們預計第四季的混合成長率將接近 2%，而不是現在的 3%。因此，我們確實預計今年第四季會出現減速。抱歉，您的第二個問題是什麼？

I guess that sort of answers it, but how are you thinking about earning for '26?

我想這算是回答了你的問題，但你認為 26 年的收入是多少呢？

Well, earn-in is -- it's way too early, and it's not because we don't want to give it out. It's because we don't -- it's too early to see the rate of deceleration and it could be more moderate in which case, we'll have a better earning. It could be more extreme. We don't really see that, but it's possible given the economy is a little bit unclear these days, right?

好吧，收益——現在還為時過早，這並不是因為我們不想付出。這是因為我們沒有——現在判斷減速的速度還為時過早，而且減速的速度可能會更加溫和，在這種情況下，我們的收益會更好。情況可能會更加極端。我們確實沒有看到這種情況，但考慮到目前經濟狀況有點不明朗，這是有可能的，對嗎？

But it also could just be flat because we are anticipating a lower supply deliveries and Northern California continues to remain strong. So the range of outcomes is still wide enough that it's not going to be useful to try to predict it today.

但它也可能只是持平，因為我們預計供應量會下降，而北加州繼續保持強勁。因此，結果範圍仍然很廣，今天嘗試預測它是沒有用的。

Angela, you mentioned a couple of times public policy and its impact on the economy. I was wondering in LA specifically, if you've seen an impact on -- from immigration policy on your portfolio? I mean maybe not directly, but indirectly, is it just creates softer demand and more options, more housing options for some of your tenants?

安吉拉，您幾次提到公共政策及其對經濟的影響。我特別想知道，在洛杉磯，您是否看到移民政策對您的投資組合產生了影響？我的意思是，也許不是直接的，而是間接的，它是否只是為一些租戶創造了更疲軟的需求和更多的選擇、更多的住房選擇？

Yeah, that's a complicated topic. But as it relates to the actual impact on the demand side, we're not seeing a direct impact from the immigration policy. The softness of the demand is really more of the general economy. Do we have tariffs today? No, we don't.

是的，這是一個複雜的話題。但就其對需求的實際影響而言，我們並沒有看到移民政策的直接影響。需求疲軟實際上更體現在整體經濟上。今天有關稅嗎？不，我們不知道。

Is it 100%? Now it's 12. And it's confusing, right? So if you're a business and you're trying to make decisions, whether you want to grow your business or hire people, it's hard to do. And so I think that's -- it's a broader economy.

是100%嗎？現在是12。這很令人困惑，對吧？因此，如果你是一家企業，並且正在嘗試做出決策，無論你是想擴大業務還是僱用員工，這都是很難做到的。所以我認為這是更廣泛的經濟。

As far as the -- what we would expect on the immigration of some of these other policy impact probably more on the labor side, and it will depend on the severity of the policy and the duration. And so at this point, we haven't seen a material impact across the board. But if the intensity continues and we end up with a labor shortage I think that is going to be an issue for the US as a whole, I don't think it's a specific LA issue.

就我們預期的移民政策而言，其他一些政策對勞動力方面的影響可能更大，這將取決於政策的嚴厲程度和持續時間。因此，目前我們還沒有看到全面實質的影響。但如果這種緊張局勢持續下去，最終導致勞動力短缺，我認為這將成為整個美國的問題，而不僅僅是洛杉磯的問題。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste、瑞穗證券。

First is more of a follow-up. I wanted to get some more color and clarity on the expected cadence of earnings from the structured investment book. It sounds like you're expecting the majority of repayments over the next three, four quarters. You mentioned $0.02 of repayment headwinds in 3Q I think another $0.06 in 4Q. So I was hoping, one, that those numbers are actually accurate. And secondly, a sense of what that headwind could look like in '26 as you rightsize the block.

首先是更多的後續行動。我希望從結構化投資帳簿中更詳細、更清晰地了解預期的獲利節奏。聽起來您預計大部分還款將在未來三至四個季度內完成。您提到第三季還款阻力為 0.02 美元，我認為第四季還會有 0.06 美元。所以我希望，首先，這些數字確實是準確的。其次，當你調整區塊大小時，可以想像 26 年逆風會是什麼樣子。

Yeah. This is Barb. From a modeling perspective, let me just try to walk you through the size of the book, and then I think that might help you get there. So right now, at the end of the second quarter, our total book value in the structured finance investments is $550 million. That includes the mezz investments that we have. And by the end of the year, assuming we don't do any new investments that haven't already been disclosed, the book is expected to be around $400 million.

是的。這是芭布。從建模的角度來看，讓我嘗試向您介紹這本書的大小，然後我認為這可能會幫助您實現目標。因此，目前，在第二季末，我們的結構性融資投資的總帳面價值為 5.5 億美元。其中包括我們擁有的夾層投資。到今年年底，假設我們不進行任何尚未披露的新投資，預計帳面價值將達到 4 億美元左右。

And then as we look to 2026, given the maturities that we have, we expect the book will be $200 million to $250 million by the end of the year, although the redemptions are front-end loaded in the first two quarters. And so from a modeling perspective, you'd want to take the book down and then take the coupon from a 10% that we're earning on the investments down to 5%.

然後，當我們展望 2026 年時，考慮到我們現有的到期債務，我們預計到今年年底賬面金額將達到 2 億至 2.5 億美元，儘管贖回是在前兩個季度預先加載的。因此，從建模的角度來看，您需要降低帳簿，然後將我們從投資中獲得的票面利率從 10% 降至 5%。

So that should give you enough cover color. We haven't modeled out '26 yet. We haven't started our budget process yet. But that should hopefully help you get into the crack sound.

這樣就可以為您提供足夠的封面顏色。我們還沒有模擬出'26。我們尚未開始預算流程。但這應該能幫助你了解破解聲音。

No, that is very helpful. Appreciate that, Barb. And just one more. I guess I was curious on your thoughts last month, the California State Assembly passed and governor some sign to build that appears, I guess, aimed at what they say, catalyzing new housing through exemptions to CEQA, the law of the land in California since 1970. So I guess I'm curious what your initial thoughts are on this replace of CEQA. And what you think it could mean for long-term capital flows, asset pricing, development, rents, et cetera?

不，這非常有幫助。非常感謝，芭布。還有一個。我對你上個月的想法很好奇，加州議會和州長通過了一些建設標誌，我猜這些標誌似乎就是為了實現他們所說的目標，通過對 CEQA（加州自 1970 年以來的法律）的豁免來催化新住房。所以我很好奇您對 CEQA 的替代最初的想法是什麼。您認為這對長期資本流動、資產定價、開發、租金等意味著什麼？

Yeah. We actually view CEQA to be net positive. It's a great example of California moving toward a more reasonable or in other words, a more moderate political environment. And as far as the impact to supply and the development business, Rylan can provide more color.

是的。我們實際上認為 CEQA 是淨正面的。這是加州走向更合理，或者說更溫和的政治環境的一個很好的例子。就對供應和開發業務的影響而言，Rylan 可以提供更多色彩。

Yeah, Haendel, in the near term, we really expect this is going to have a limited impact. I'd remind you that in the past several years, the state legislature passed several reforms to encourage development over the past 3 years, permits are down anywhere from 40% to 50% in our submarket.

是的，亨德爾，在短期內，我們確實預計這將產生有限的影響。我要提醒您，在過去幾年中，州立法機構通過了幾項改革來鼓勵過去 3 年的發展，我們子市場的許可證數量下降了 40％ 到 50％。

So really had limited impact so far. I acknowledge that see reform is significant, given its history and how it has been used in the past and delay and sometimes prevent projects from recurring. But to take an example from our development underwriting, we've underwritten approximately 100 development deals over the past year. 80% of those had entitlements. So there was no CEQA risk to begin with.

因此到目前為止影響確實有限。我承認，鑑於改革的歷史以及它在過去是如何被使用的，以及它如何推遲甚至有時阻止項目的再次發生，改革具有重要意義。以我們的開發核保為例，過去一年我們承保了約 100 筆開發交易，其中 80％ 都享有權益。因此，CEQA 風險從一開始就不存在。

And the vast majority of those, the economics really just don't make sense. I'd call it an untended return on cost, sub-5% on the majority of those projects. So we think the economics are going to continue to be a limiting factor as it relates to supply in California. And so yes, limited near-term impact.

其中絕大多數，從經濟學角度來看確實毫無意義。我稱之為未預期的成本回報，大多數項目的回報率低於 5%。因此，我們認為經濟因素將繼續成為加州供應的限制因素。所以是的，短期影響有限。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Amy on for Michael. I was wondering if you have seen any changes in demand in Northern California or Seattle if rents are being more price sensitive, any changes in foot traffic or conversions or reasons for move out?

這是艾米為麥可所做的報道。我想知道，如果租金對價格更加敏感，您是否看到北加州或西雅圖的需求有任何變化，客流量或轉換率或搬出原因有任何變化？

So we have seen a steady demand in Northern California and Seattle. And we've not seen any softness as it relates to whether it's traffic or otherwise. I think primarily because, especially in Northern California, we are still sitting in one of the best affordability position that we have been from -- for the history of the company because rents are just starting to recover and income has grown consistently over the past five years. So it's still catching up. And as far as Seattle is concerned, the demand remains steady.

因此，我們看到北加州和西雅圖的需求穩定。我們沒有看到任何與交通或其他方面相關的疲軟。我認為主要是因為，特別是在北加州，我們仍然處於公司歷史上最好的可負擔能力地位之一，因為租金才剛開始回升，而且收入在過去五年中一直在持續增長。所以它仍在追趕。就西雅圖而言，需求保持穩定。

It's a higher supply market, therefore, the demand is more influenced by the supply landscape than anything else. And what we're seeing is that we're seeing the demand delivery or the demand pressures shift in the second quarter -- or in the second half to our favor. In the first half, the supply delivery was about 60% of total supply and second half is 40%. So definitely, no cracks. The underlying strength continues to remain solid in our northern regions.

這是一個供應量較高的市場，因此，需求受供應狀況的影響比其他任何因素都大。我們看到的是，需求交付或需求壓力在第二季或下半年發生了轉變，朝著對我們有利的方向發展。上半年供應交付量約佔總供應量的60%，下半年為40%。所以肯定沒有裂縫。我們北部地區的潛在實力持續保持穩固。

Wes Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉迪，貝爾德。

I just want to go back to Los Angeles here, LA County. How do we see a recovery playing out? I think you mentioned supply would be down, but what about the lease-up pressure from that supply?

我只想回到洛杉磯，洛杉磯縣。我們如何看待經濟復甦？我認為您提到過供應量會下降，但是供應量帶來的租賃壓力又如何呢？

Well, the lease-up pressure, it typically lasts depending on the magnitude around, say, six to nine months on average. And so with the supply abating, that lease pressure is actually going to improve. And what you'll see is the concessions will start to improve, better and kind of end up in that maybe half a week versus closer to a week range over time. So that's one good metric to look at.

嗯，租賃壓力通常會持續大約六到九個月，具體取決於其程度。因此，隨著供應減少，租賃壓力實際上將會改善。而你會看到，隨著時間的推移，優惠將開始改善，越來越好，最終可能達到半週而不是接近一周的範圍。所以這是一個值得關注的好指標。

And the other influencing factor with LA is with other economies, you could tell or you could see what are the puts and takes, for example, Northern California, of course, there's that technology and artificial intelligence and artificial intelligence benefit that has been quite steady.

洛杉磯的另一個影響因素是與其他經濟體，你可以看出或看到其中的投入和產出，例如北加州，當然，那裡的技術和人工智慧以及人工智慧效益一直相當穩定。

In Southern California, particularly LA, there's been a huge amount of infrastructure spending announced that is specific to LA. And that $80 billion will be a meaningful injection into that economy and driving demand, driving people to that market to build and to do business there.

在南加州，特別是洛杉磯，已經宣布了針對洛杉磯的巨額基礎設施支出。這 800 億美元將為該國經濟注入有意義的力量，拉動需求，吸引人們前往該國市場建立企業、開展業務。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

Obviously, covered a lot of ground today, but just one question on bad debt. So it looks like on balance, you're kind of down to that 50 basis point number, which I think is roughly in line with history. But obviously, trends are still a little bit worse than expected in LA specifically. So does that sort of imply that we're better than expected elsewhere in the portfolio from a bad debt perspective? And what do you expect from here?

顯然，今天討論了很多內容，但只有一個問題是關於壞帳的。因此，總體來看，利率已經下降到了 50 個基點，我認為這與歷史情況大致相符。但顯然，洛杉磯的趨勢仍然比預期的要差一些。那麼，從壞帳角度來看，這是否意味著我們的投資組合中其他部分的表現比預期要好呢？您對此有何期望？

Rich, it's Barb. Yeah, your memory is pretty good. We are about 10 basis points off of our long-term historical average with LA being worse than our average and then being offset by slightly better in North Cal and P&W. But overall, our guidance assumes we're at this level for the rest of the year. Could we do better? Yes, I will just be the higher end of our guidance.

里奇，我是芭布。嗯，你的記憶力很好。我們比長期歷史平均水平低了大約 10 個基點，其中洛杉磯的表現比我們的平均水平差，但北加州和普華永道的表現略好一些，從而抵消了這一差距。但總體而言，我們的預期是假設今年剩餘時間我們的業績將保持在這一水平。我們可以做得更好嗎？是的，我只是給了我們指導的高端。

John Pawlowski, Green Street Capital Advisors.

約翰·帕沃夫斯基（John Pawlowski），Green Street Capital Advisors 公司。

Angela, can you provide details around your comment that you believe the Bay Area job growth is better than what the BLS is reporting because the jobs data just in terms of nonfarm jobs both from an absolute growth rate and the momentum that could have been better in SoCal relative to NorCal. So just curious why you play devil's advocate against the BLS numbers?

安吉拉，您能否詳細說明您的評論，您認為灣區的就業增長情況比美國勞工統計局報告的要好，因為就業數據僅就非農就業而言，無論是從絕對增長率還是從發展勢頭來看，南加州都比北加州更好。所以我只是好奇為什麼你要扮演反對 BLS 數字的魔鬼代言人？

Yeah. Actually, it's based on data. So this is not Angela's feeling index here when it comes to the BLS data. it's become less reliable because participation rate has fallen. Pre-COVID, the participation rate was about 60%.

是的。事實上，這是基於數據的。因此，當談到 BLS 數據時，這並不是安吉拉的感覺指數。由於參與率下降，它變得不那麼可靠。新冠疫情前，參與率約 60%。

And today, the participation is only about half of that, about 30%. And so the BLS data is just -- it doesn't -- it's just not a good indication of what's really going on in the ground. But a perfect example is that the bills shows it's actually the Northern California region produced the worst job year-to-date. It's negative 70 basis points. You contrast that with -- it's actually our best rent growth market. It's extreme, and that's not possible without job growth.

而今天，參與率只有當時的一半左右，約30%。因此，美國勞工統計局的數據並不能很好地反映地面上真正發生的情況。但一個完美的例子是，帳單顯示，北加州地區實際上是今年迄今就業率最低的地區。為負 70 個基點。與此形成對比的是——這實際上是我們最好的租金成長市場。這是非常極端的情況，如果沒有就業成長，這是不可能的。

Understood. I understand BLS data is far from perfect. Just curious if there's other indicators you look at a side of rent growth that suggests that the job growth is really gaining momentum in the Bay Area.

明白了。我知道 BLS 數據遠非完美。我只是好奇，從租金成長的角度來看，是否有其他指標表明灣區的就業成長確實正在獲得動力。

Yeah, a good indicator -- a good data we use, which is a third-party vendor is we track the job openings of the top 20 technology companies. And we have seen, once again, no acceleration, but just a gradual, steady increase. And we are now pre-down close to pre-COVID levels. which is a good sign.

是的，一個很好的指標——我們使用的一個很好的數據，它是第三方供應商，我們追蹤前 20 家科技公司的職缺。我們再次看到，沒有出現加速，只是逐漸、穩定的成長。現在我們已經接近新冠疫情之前的水平，這是一個好兆頭。

Because what that means is as these companies back fill the job openings, the open positions remains high, which means they are still incrementally growing. So we're not in that robust frothy period, but it's definitely a great start as far as we're concerned.

因為這意味著，隨著這些公司填補職缺，空缺職位數量仍然很高，這意味著它們仍在逐步成長。因此，我們還沒有進入強勁的泡沫時期，但就我們而言，這絕對是一個很好的開始。

Okay. And then last one for me, Rylan. Can you give us a sense where the new preferred equity investment in the new JV sits in the capital stack and how much total leverage is on this -- is going to be on this development project. I'm worried and skeptical, the borrower kind of forward 13.5% interest on the loan.

好的。最後一個是我的，Rylan。您能否告訴我們新合資企業中的新優先股投資在資本結構中處於什麼位置，以及該開發案的總槓桿率是多少？我感到擔心和懷疑，借款人預付了 13.5% 的貸款利息。

Yeah, John, I would say, typically, our underwriting standards were typically starting around the 60% loan-to-cost and willing to go up to 85%, assuming a full accrual stack. So we're not going above that 85% position in this deal -- on our underwriting numbers, too, right? So we'll take the developers underwriting and we'll recast the land value of what we think is an appropriate value for this market. So I think we have a fairly conservative approach as it relates to development and underwriting.

是的，約翰，我想說，通常情況下，我們的承保標準通常是從 60% 的貸款成本比率開始，並願意上升到 85%，假設完全應計堆疊。因此，在這筆交易中，我們的承保比例也不會超過 85%，對嗎？因此，我們將接受開發商的承保，並重新計算我們認為適合這個市場的土地價值。因此我認為我們在開發和承保方面採取了相當保守的方法。

So the total loan to cost in this project will be in the 80%-ish range.

因此，該項目的總貸款成本將在 80% 左右的範圍內。

Sorry, please repeat the question.

抱歉，請重複問題。

Yeah. Your preferred equity investment plus any other debt on the property, the total loan to cost on the development will be somewhere in the 70% to 80% range, is that fair?

是的。您的優先股權投資加上該房產的任何其他債務，開發的總貸款成本將在 70% 到 80% 之間，這公平嗎？

Yeah, that's in the ballpark.

是的，大致是如此。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯金（Alex Kim），澤爾曼與合夥人。

Just we saw the spread between renewals and the move-ins widened again this quarter. And previously, there might have been some expectations for market rents to converge with renewals. Just curious what you think this might mean from a market demand perspective? And then do you expect the spread to tighten moving forward?

我們剛剛看到本季續約量和入住量之間的差距再次擴大。此前，人們可能預期市場租金會與續約租金趨於一致。只是好奇您認為從市場需求的角度來看這代表什麼？那麼您是否預期未來利差將會縮小？

Yeah. Normally, Alex, normally, you would see the -- a wide range between renewal and new lease -- I'm sorry, yes, renewal and new lease rates in an environment if market rents continue to accelerate. So if that happens next year, then it's test spread is going to remain why? If market rents performs closer to, say, the long-term CAGR between 3% to 4%, then those two metrics will likely converge. And with the caveat, the LA will be different because we have other influences impacting LA.

是的。通常情況下，亞歷克斯，通常情況下，你會看到——續約和新租約之間的差異很大——對不起，是的，如果市場租金繼續加速上漲，續約和新租約的費率就會出現差異。那麼如果明年發生這種情況，那麼測試傳播將會保持不變，為什麼？如果市場租金表現更接近 3% 至 4% 之間的長期複合年增長率，那麼這兩個指標可能會趨於一致。要注意的是，洛杉磯的情況會有所不同，因為我們有其他因素影響著洛杉磯。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference of Essex second quarter earnings call has concluded. Thank you for joining the call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，艾塞克斯第二季財報電話會議已經結束。感謝您參加此通話。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。