Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Essex Property Trust Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. Statements made on this conference call regarding expected operating results and other future events are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are made based on current expectations, assumptions and beliefs as well as information available to the company at this time. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.

美好的一天，歡迎參加埃塞克斯房地產信託 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音。本次電話會議有關預期經營績效和其他未來事件的聲明均為前瞻性聲明，涉及風險和不確定性。前瞻性陳述是根據當前的預期、假設和信念以及公司目前可獲得的資訊做出的。許多因素可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。

Further information about these risks can be found on the company's filings with the SEC. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Angela Kleiman, President and Chief Executive Officer for Essex Property Trust. Thank you. Ms. Kleiman, you may begin.

有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。現在我很高興向大家介紹東道主安吉拉·克萊曼女士，她是埃塞克斯地產信託公司的總裁兼首席執行官。謝謝。克萊曼女士，您可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Essex's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Barb Pak will follow with prepared remarks, Rylan Burns and Jessica Anderson are here for Q&A. I will start with the key highlights of our 2023 performance then discuss our expectations for 2024, followed by comments on the transaction market and our investment strategy. Overall, 2023 was a solid year for Essex. We achieved a 4.4% same-property revenue growth for the full year, which is in line with our revised guidance and 40 basis points higher than the original midpoint.

早上好，感謝您參加艾塞克斯第四季財報電話會議。 Barb Pak 隨後將發表準備好的講話，Rylan Burns 和 Jessica Anderson 將出席問答環節。我將從我們 2023 年業績的主要亮點開始，然後討論我們對 2024 年的預期，然後對交易市場和我們的投資策略進行評論。總體而言，2023 年對艾塞克斯來說是堅實的一年。我們全年實現同物業收入成長 4.4%，符合我們修訂後的指引，比原來的中點高 40 個基點。

Furthermore, we made substantial progress in reducing delinquency as a percentage of rent from over 2% in the first quarter, down to 1.4% by year-end. These are the results of the well coordinated efforts of our hardworking operations and support teams across the company. Great job team, and thank you.

此外，我們在減少拖欠租金方面取得了實質進展，從第一季的 2% 以上降至年底的 1.4%。這些都是我們全公司辛勤的營運和支援團隊協調努力的成果。很棒的團隊，謝謝你們。

Lastly, we continue to drive results to the bottom line, delivering a 3.6% year-over-year increase in core FFO per share, exceeding the high end of our original guidance range by $0.06.

最後，我們繼續將業績推向底線，每股核心 FFO 年比成長 3.6%，超出我們最初指導範圍的上限 0.06 美元。

Turning to the fourth quarter. We deployed an occupancy-focused strategy as market rents moderated generally consistent with typical seasonal pattern. In addition, we recovered a significant number of delinquent units starting in October. As expected, the subsequent backfilling of nonpaying units during a seasonally slow period created a temporary headwind to net effective new lease rates, which averaged negative 1.7% for the quarter.

轉向第四季。我們採取了以入住為中心的策略，因為市場租金的放緩與典型的季節性模式基本一致。此外，我們從 10 月開始回收了大量拖欠單位。正如預期的那樣，隨後在季節性淡季期間回填未付款單位，對淨有效新租賃率（本季度平均為負 1.7%）造成了暫時的阻力。

On the renewal front, the positive trend continues with strong retention among our residents, generating an increase in renewal rates of 4.9% for the quarter, resulting in blender rates of positive 2.6%. As we start 2024, leasing activities in our markets is steady. In January, new lease net FX rates improved by 150 basis points and concession usage decreased by half the fourth quarter, and our financial occupancy sits in a solid position of 96.2%. Moving on to our outlook for the West Coast in 2024, as outlined in our earnings package. We expect the U.S. economy and job growth to normalize in 2024, consistent with economists' outlook of a soft landing.

在續約方面，積極的趨勢仍在繼續，我們的居民保留率很高，本季續訂率增加了 4.9%，攪拌機比率為正 2.6%。 2024 年伊始，我們市場的租賃活動保持穩定。 1 月份，新租賃淨匯率提高了 150 個基點，第四季度優惠使用量減少了一半，我們的財務入住率穩定在 96.2%。接下來是我們對 2024 年西海岸的展望，如我們的收益計畫所述。我們預計美國經濟和就業成長將在 2024 年恢復正常，這與經濟學家軟著陸的前景一致。

We forecast job growth on the West Coast to perform in line with the national average on the Essex markets to produce market rent growth of 1.25% on average. The consensus macroeconomic U.S. assumptions and the quality of jobs are key considerations to our modest outlook.

我們預計西海岸的就業成長將與埃塞克斯市場的全國平均水平一致，從而產生平均 1.25% 的市場租金成長。美國宏觀經濟共識假設和就業品質是我們溫和前景的關鍵考慮因素。

In 2023, the employment growth was largely concentrated in the service sectors, which did not yield meaningful rent growth. We expect this dynamic to continue, and we currently assume hiring of highly skilled workers to remain muted as companies continue to evaluate their labor needs and priorities. While our base case scenario for 2024 reflect tempered growth, there are several factors that could support a more positive outcome.

2023年，就業成長主要集中在服務業，而服務業並沒有帶來有意義的租金成長。我們預計這種動態將持續下去，並且我們目前假設隨著公司繼續評估其勞動力需求和優先事項，高技能工人的招聘將保持低調。雖然我們 2024 年的基本情境反映了成長放緩，但有幾個因素可以支持更積極的結果。

First, inflation could continue to move in the right direction, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will pivot from tightening to easing. Accordingly, the economy could gain momentum and hiring of highly skilled workers reaccelerate as cost of capital becomes more attractive. Second, the large technology companies implemented significant business and labor retrenchments at the end of 2022 through the early part of last year. Therefore, these companies are better equipped today to lead advancements and stimulate growth.

首先，通膨可能繼續朝正確方向發展，增加聯準會從緊縮轉向寬鬆的可能性。因此，隨著資本成本變得更具吸引力，經濟可能會獲得動力，高技能工人的招募也會重新加速。其次，大型科技公司從 2022 年底到去年初實施了大規模的業務和勞動力裁員。因此，這些公司如今更有能力引領進步並刺激成長。

To this point, recent layoff announcements have been much smaller in scale with companies citing larger strategic plans to redirect talent and investments toward artificial intelligence projects, which we view as a long-term benefit for the West Coast. With low levels of housing supply in our markets, a modest increase in demand could accelerate rent growth. Despite uncertainties in the overall economy, we are confident in our market's ability to navigate near-term volatility and to outperform in the long term. Our conviction is based on 2 fundamental factors, low housing supply and favorable affordability.

到目前為止，最近宣布的裁員公告規模要小得多，公司引用了更大的戰略計劃，將人才和投資轉向人工智慧項目，我們認為這對西海岸來說是長期利益。由於我們市場上的住房供應水平較低，需求的適度增長可能會加速租金成長。儘管整體經濟存在不確定性，但我們對市場應對近期波動並長期跑贏大盤的能力充滿信心。我們的信念基於兩個基本因素：住房供應量低和負擔能力良好。

Over the next 2 years, we expect less than 1% of total supply growth per annum, which enables us to generate positive rent growth in most environments. Also, renting in the Essex markets is considerably more affordable than owning a home, and favorable rent-to-income ratios support a long runway for rent growth, especially in our Northern regions. As such, we expect the economic incentive to rent to persist and drive demand for multifamily housing.

未來 2 年，我們預計每年總供應量將成長不到 1%，這使我們能夠在大多數環境下實現正租金成長。此外，埃塞克斯市場的租金比擁有房屋便宜得多，而且有利的租金與收入比率支持租金的長期增長，尤其是在我們的北部地區。因此，我們預計租金的經濟誘因將持續存在，並推動多戶住房的需求。

Lastly, on the investment market and our strategy. 2023 was a year of historically low transaction volume, primarily due to significant volatility in the capital markets. Although we've seen interest rates decline throughout the fourth quarter, yield spread between buyers and sellers remain wide, ranging from approximately 25 to 50 basis points in our markets. And thus, we are now anticipating a significant increase in deal volume in the near term.

最後，關於投資市場和我們的策略。 2023 年是交易量歷史低點的一年，主要是由於資本市場大幅波動。儘管第四季利率有所下降，但買家和賣家之間的收益率差距仍然很大，在我們的市場上約為 25 至 50 個基點。因此，我們現在預計近期交易量將大幅增加。

Lenders have generally been accommodating to sponsors extending debt maturities when feasible, and there are very few force sellers in our markets currently. Given the thirst of data points, there is less certainty in the transaction market. It is during periods of uncertainty that Essex has historically created significant value for our shareholders through external growth. As such, our investment team is proactively looking for acquisition opportunities to generate the best risk-adjusted returns. We expect Essex's disciplined approach to capital allocation, strong balance sheet and deep market expertise will be key differentiators in creating long-term value. With that, I'll turn the call over to Barbara.

貸款人通常會在可行的情況下允許發起人延長債務期限，目前我們市場上很少有強制賣家。由於對數據點的渴求，交易市場的確定性較低。正是在不確定時期，埃塞克斯公司歷來透過外部成長為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值。因此，我們的投資團隊正在積極尋找收購機會，以產生最佳的風險調整回報。我們預計埃塞克斯嚴格的資本配置方法、強大的資產負債表和深厚的市場專業知識將成為創造長期價值的關鍵差異化因素。這樣，我就把電話轉給芭芭拉。

Thanks, Angela. Today, I will discuss the key assumptions to our 2024 guidance and provide an update on the balance sheet. Beginning with our outlook for 2024, a key factor to our revenue forecast is our market rent growth assumption. As Angela mentioned, the economic backdrop is expected to be muted this year, which is leading to below average rent growth for our markets. As a result, same-property revenue growth is tempered at 1.7% at the midpoint on a cash basis. The key drivers of our revenue growth are outlined on Page S-17.1 of the supplemental.

謝謝，安吉拉。今天，我將討論 2024 年指引的關鍵假設，並提供資產負債表的最新資訊。從我們對 2024 年的展望開始，我們收入預測的一個關鍵因素是我們的市場租金成長假設。正如安吉拉所提到的，預計今年的經濟背景將疲軟，這將導致我們市場的租金成長低於平均水平。因此，以現金計算，同物業收入成長中位數放緩至 1.7%。補充資料的 S-17.1 頁概述了我們收入成長的主要驅動因素。

Our guidance assumes delinquency of 1.5% of schedule rents for the full year, which represents a 40 basis point improvement to year-over-year revenue growth. We expect delinquency will gradually improve as we move through the year. In terms of regional performance, we expect Southern California will produce our highest revenue growth at 3%, led by Orange County in San Diego. Northern California will be around 1%, and Seattle will be our weakest performing region, which is forecasted to be flat on a year-over-year basis.

我們的指導假設全年拖欠租金為計劃租金的 1.5%，這意味著同比收入增長提高了 40 個基點。我們預計，隨著這一年的推移，拖欠率將逐漸改善。就地區業績而言，我們預計南加州將實現 3% 的最高收入成長，其中聖地牙哥的橘郡領先。北加州將在 1% 左右，西雅圖將是我們表現最弱的地區，預計與去年同期持平。

Moving to operating expenses. We are projecting 4.25% growth for the full year, which was largely driven by higher insurance costs. Although insurance costs account for a small portion of our total operating expenses, we are forecasting a 30% increase in our premiums, which adds 1.4% to our total same-property expense growth. The company remains focused on managing controllable expenses, which we are forecasting to increase 3% in 2024, primarily driven by higher wages. In total, we expect same-property NOI growth of 60 basis points and core FFO per share growth to be flat at the midpoint compared to 2023. Core FFO growth would be over 1% higher, if not for the impact from 2 items related to our preferred equity platform.

轉向營運費用。我們預計全年將成長 4.25%，這主要是由保險成本上漲所推動的。儘管保險成本只占我們總營運支出的一小部分，但我們預計保費將增加 30%，這將使我們的同類財產總支出增加 1.4%。該公司仍專注於管理可控費用，我們預計 2024 年該費用將增加 3%，主要是由於薪資上漲。整體而言，我們預計與2023 年相比，同物業NOI 成長60 個基點，核心FFO 每股成長將持平於中點。如果沒有與2023 年相關的2 個項目的影響，核心FFO 成長將高出1% 以上。我們的首選股權平台。

First, in December, we received $40 million in redemption proceeds, and we are forecasting an additional $100 million in redemption proceeds for this year. We anticipate redeploying the funds into new acquisitions, which tempers our near-term FFO growth, but is the best long-term capital allocation decision for Essex. Second, while our sponsors remain current on all financial obligations with the senior lenders, we changed the accrual status on 2 investments in the fourth quarter based on current market conditions. Further, we've taken a prudent approach as to how we projected income for the remainder of the portfolio as part of our 2024 guidance.

首先，我們在 12 月收到了 4,000 萬美元的贖回收益，預計今年還將獲得 1 億美元的贖回收益。我們預計將資金重新部署到新的收購中，這將緩和我們近期 FFO 的成長，但對埃塞克斯來說是最佳的長期資本配置決策。其次，雖然我們的發起人仍然履行對高級貸款人的所有財務義務，但我們根據當前的市場狀況更改了第四季度兩項投資的應計狀態。此外，作為 2024 年指導的一部分，我們對如何預測投資組合其餘部分的收入採取了謹慎的態度。

We will continue to evaluate the accrual status on each of our preferred equity investments every quarter as appropriate. Turning to the balance sheet. Essex is in a strong financial position with minimal financing needs over the next 12 months and ample sources of capital. Our leverage levels are solid with net debt to EBITDA at 5.4x, and we have over $1.6 billion of liquidity available to us. We manage our balance sheet and capital needs conservatively to be well positioned to create value throughout the cycle, and we remain optimistic, we will see opportunities to invest this year. With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for questions.

我們將繼續每季酌情評估每項優先股權投資的應計狀況。轉向資產負債表。埃塞克斯財務狀況強勁，未來 12 個月的融資需求極小，資金來源充足。我們的槓桿水準穩定，淨債務佔 EBITDA 的比例為 5.4 倍，我們擁有超過 16 億美元的可用流動資金。我們保守地管理我們的資產負債表和資本需求，以便在整個週期中創造價值，我們保持樂觀，我們將看到今年的投資機會。現在，我將把電話轉回給接線員詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Just digging into guidance here. Can you share what your assumptions are for new and renewal lease rate growth are relative to the 1.25% market rent growth assumed and kind of how you're thinking about the cadence of that through the year?

只是在這裡深入研究指導。您能否分享一下您對新租約和續約租約率成長相對於 1.25% 市場租金成長的假設，以及您如何看待這一年的節奏？

Austin, it's Barb. Yes. So we're assuming 1.25% for new lease growth and renewals, we expect to be slightly above that at 1.75%. We do expect renewal growth will be -- in the first half of the year be above 2% in the low 2% range and then drift down to our market rent growth assumption of 1.25% in the back half of the year.

奧斯汀，我是巴布。是的。因此，我們假設新租賃成長和續租成長為 1.25%，我們預計會略高於 1.75%。我們確實預計，今年上半年的續租成長將在 2% 的低水平範圍內高於 2%，然後在下半年下降到我們的市場租金成長假設 1.25%。

I guess just following quickly up on that, what's driving that really tight spread? Are there concessions burning off or anything that's impacting, I guess, the spread between new and renewal lease rates assumed in your guidance?

我想快速跟進一下，是什麼推動瞭如此緊密的利差？我猜是否有優惠被耗盡或有什麼影響您指導中假設的新租賃費率和續租費率之間的差距？

Yes. So I think if you look at January, you'll see we printed 4.8% on new leases or renewals, but 50% of that is a burn-off of concessions and so it's not really market rent -- new market rent growth. And I would say our philosophy on renewals is not to push them above market. We do like to we want to price them appropriately. And last year, in 2023, we didn't have a significant loss to lease. And so we don't have a big spread differential between our new and renewals from last year that would carry forward into this year. So we think it's priced appropriately.

是的。因此，我認為，如果你看看1 月份，你會發現我們在新租約或續約方面印製了4.8%，但其中50% 是優惠的消耗，所以這並不是真正的市場租金——新的市場租金增長。我想說的是，我們的續約理念並不是將其推到市場之上。我們確實希望對它們進行適當的定價。去年，也就是 2023 年，我們並沒有出現重大的租賃損失。因此，我們去年的新產品和續訂產品之間的價差不會延續到今年。所以我們認為它的定價是適當的。

And if I can just sneak in one more. I recognize you guys report financial occupancy, but could you break out the impact from guidance around the occupancy change and then impact from concessions and maybe what market rent growth would look like on a net effective basis if you included the concession impact there.

如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次就好了。我知道你們報告了財務佔用率，但是您能否詳細說明有關佔用率變化的指導的影響，然後是特許權的影響，如果您將特許權影響納入其中，那麼市場租金增長在淨有效基礎上可能會是什麼樣子。

Yes. So the concession piece on the occupancy and concessions, we expect concessions to be a 10 basis point headwind to our forecast this year, occupancy to be 20 basis points. So we're forecasting 96.2% for occupancy. So we don't expect concessions to have a material impact to the forecast this year on a year-over-year basis.

是的。因此，關於入住率和優惠的優惠部分，我們預計優惠將比我們今年預測的 10 個基點逆風，入住率為 20 個基點。因此，我們預測入住率為 96.2%。因此，我們預計優惠不會對今年的預測產生同比的重大影響。

Our next question is from Stephen Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Sakwa。

I noticed on the delinquency slide, I guess it's S-16, there was a big jump up in the delinquencies between the fourth quarter and January. And I know you talked about that overall trend getting better for the full year, I think, to the tune of 40 basis points. But just what color can you provide in January that showed that big pop?

我注意到拖欠率幻燈片上，我猜是 S-16，第四季到 1 月之間拖欠率大幅上升。我知道您談到全年整體趨勢會好轉，我認為達到 40 個基點。但在一月你能提供什麼顏色來展現如此大的流行呢？

Steve, it's Barb. Yes, this January, we've seen for several years now. It's the post holiday. I think people are paying off their credit cards and whatnot. So it's not something that we're overly concerned about. We're monitoring it closely. But we have seen this last year, if you go back and you look at our supplemental, we saw 190 basis points increase from Q4 to January. This year, we're up 80. So it is a lot lower than we were a year ago, but we're monitoring it.

史蒂夫，我是巴布。是的，今年一月，我們已經見面好幾年了。這是假期後。我認為人們正在還清信用卡之類的東西。所以這不是我們過度擔心的事。我們正在密切監視它。但我們去年已經看到了這一點，如果你回頭看看我們的補充資料，我們會發現從第四季度到一月份增長了 190 個基點。今年，我們上升了 80。所以比一年前低很多，但我們正在監控它。

Okay. And then just, I guess, maybe on the DC for your -- I guess, your pref book. I mean just as you've kind of gone through and scrub sort of some of the things you talked about a couple of the underwriting changes. Like just what risk do you sort of see out there on the kind of roughly $500 million you've got outstanding? And I guess, how are you sort of handicapping that in terms of any future write-offs?

好的。然後，我想，也許在 DC 上為你——我想，你的首選書。我的意思是，正如您已經經歷並清理了您談到的一些承保變化的事情一樣。就像您所看到的大約 5 億美元的未償還債務中存在哪些風險？我想，你是如何在未來的沖銷方面阻礙這一點的呢？

Yes, Stephen, this is Barb. We take a prudent approach when we look at this. And there's a variety of factors that we look at when we're looking at our preferred book, where are we, where is our last dollar sit relative to the market today? What are -- what's the maturity of our investments? And how much time do we have for the market to recover and really what is our sponsors doing? Are they continuing to put equity and can they continue to fund. So those are the factors that we're looking at. I think we have fully handicap the issue that we see today based on current market conditions within our guidance. It's a few assets we're monitoring. But for the most part, the book is performing as we expected.

是的，史蒂芬，這是倒鉤。當我們看待這個問題時，我們採取謹慎的態度。當我們看我們喜歡的書時，我們會考慮多種因素，我們在哪裡，相對於今天的市場，我們的最後一美元處於什麼位置？我們的投資的成熟度是多少？我們還有多少時間讓市場復甦？我們的贊助商到底在做什麼？他們是否會繼續投入股本以及是否可以繼續提供資金。這些就是我們正在考慮的因素。我認為，根據當前的市場狀況，我們已經在我們的指導範圍內完全解決了我們今天看到的問題。這是我們正在監控的一些資產。但在大多數情況下，這本書的表現符合我們的預期。

Our next question is from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼克尤利科。

It's Daniel Tricarico on for Nick. Barb, with respect to the improvement in new lease rate growth in January, which markets were the largest drivers of that change? And I know you mentioned the 50 basis point improvement from concession burn-off, but is the general market improvement largely in line with typical seasonality.

丹尼爾·特里卡里科 (Daniel Tricarico) 替補尼克。 Barb，關於 1 月新租賃率成長的改善，哪些市場是這項變革的最大推動力？我知道您提到了特許權消耗帶來的 50 個基點的改善，但整體市場的改善在很大程度上符合典型的季節性。

This is Jessica. I'll take that. With regards to the largest driver of the sequential improvement from Q4 to January, it was 150 basis points. We saw the greatest improvement in Northern California and the Bay Area. And a large part of that was concession burn-off. For the total portfolio, if you break down a 150 basis point improvement, 100 basis points of it is the improvement in concessions. So we were averaging 1 week in Q4 and that's a half a week for January. And then the other part of it, 50 basis points is attributed to rent growth, which is typical with what we would expect this time of year historically.

這是傑西卡。我會接受的。從第四季到 1 月環比改善的最大推動力為 150 個基點。我們看到北加州和灣區的進步最大。其中很大一部分是特許經營權的消耗。對於整個投資組合來說，如果細分150個基點的改善，那麼其中100個基點就是優惠的改善。因此，我們在第四季度平均為 1 週，即 1 月的半週。另一部分，50 個基點歸因於租金成長，這符合我們歷史上每年這個時候的預期。

Angela, follow-up. How are you thinking about recycling capital from your future pref equity redemptions into acquisitions or other use? You talked about optimism I believe in your opening remarks around a growing opportunity set. Are you seeing anything specific in the market today? And I guess, along the same lines, how are your JV partners thinking about deploying new capital into acquisitions today?

安吉拉，後續。您如何考慮將未來優先股權贖回中的資金回收到收購或其他用途？您在開場白中談到了我對不斷增長的機會的樂觀態度。您在今天的市場上看到了什麼具體的東西嗎？我想，同樣，您的合資夥伴現在如何考慮將新資本部署到收購中？

Yes, that's a good question. As far as how we're reviewing investments. And let me just give you a quick background on our preferred equity book. The investment thesis for this vehicle was it was intended to complement development pipeline. During a period where yields and interest rates were low and construction costs were accelerating at a significant higher rate than rent growth. So you saw us leaning into this business when the 10-year fell to historical low. And in that environment, a 12% yield was relatively more attractive.

是的，這是一個好問題。至於我們如何審查投資。讓我向您簡要介紹一下我們的優先股票書籍的背景。該工具的投資主題是旨在補充開發管道。在收益率和利率較低、建築成本成長明顯高於租金成長的時期。因此，當 10 年期公債跌至歷史低點時，您會看到我們傾向於進入這項業務。在這種環境下，12%的收益率相對更具吸引力。

The general market environment and the interest rate conditions today are very different. And so we view that there's more upside to rent growth in our markets over the long run. So the relative value is more compelling to focus on these simple acquisitions. So it doesn't mean that we're shrinking the preferred equity book intentionally, but rather that this book will probably drift lower as we look to acquisitions as a way to grow the company. And the reason is because if you look at the fundamentals in our market, it all speaks to more upside relatively speaking, from rent growth. So especially in our northern region, we have much lower supply. Affordability metrics is in the best position we've seen since we started tracking this metric historically.

當今的整體市場環境和利率狀況有很大不同。因此，我們認為從長遠來看，我們市場的租金成長有更大的上升空間。因此，關注這些簡單的收購的相對價值更具吸引力。因此，這並不意味著我們有意縮減優先股帳簿，而是當我們將收購視為公司發展的一種方式時，優先股帳簿可能會下降。原因是，如果你看看我們市場的基本面，你會發現相對而言，租金成長帶來了更多的上行空間。因此，特別是在我們的北部地區，我們的供應量要少得多。自從我們歷史上開始追蹤該指標以來，可負擔性指標處於我們所見過的最佳位置。

And there's -- the rent has yet to recover, so still in the recovery phase. And lastly, there is a demand optionality. I mean if you look at the composition of the companies in our markets, the seventh largest, 7 out of the 10 largest companies are located in our markets, and these are companies that have tremendous amount of wealth and looking -- and have committed to infrastructure and investment deployments. And so if you look at all the building blocks, it's there and it's right for acceleration once the economy shifts from a soft economy to a growth economy. And on the IRS, Rylan, do you want to talk about the IRS?

還有——租金尚未恢復，因此仍處於恢復階段。最後，還有需求的選擇性。我的意思是，如果你看看我們市場中公司的組成，你會發現第七大公司，前 10 家最大的公司中有 7 家位於我們的市場，這些公司擁有巨大的財富，並且致力於基礎設施和投資部署。因此，如果你看一下所有的組成部分，你會發現，一旦經濟從疲軟經濟轉向成長經濟，它就在那裡，並且適合加速發展。關於國稅局，瑞蘭，你想談談國稅局嗎？

Yes. At a high level, I mean, we have several joint venture partners. We've been in this business for a long time that remain committed to us and our investment thesis along the West Coast. So there is demand there if we see the right opportunities. And we would expect we will see some opportunities in the next year or 2.

是的。我的意思是，從高水準來看，我們有幾個合資夥伴。我們從事這項業務已經很長時間了，仍然致力於我們和我們在西海岸的投資主題。因此，如果我們看到合適的機會，就會有需求。我們預計在未來一兩年我們會看到一些機會。

Our next question is from Eric Wolfe with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫（Eric Wolfe）。

I think you just mentioned that you saw the largest improvement in Northern California between 4Q and January and your peer, just mentioned something similar on their call a moment ago. So I was just curious why you think you'll sort of see this muted rent growth environment throughout the year in Northern California, if you're already starting to see signs of a recovery during the sort of seasonally weak period.

我想您剛剛提到，從第四季度到一月份，您看到了北加州的最大改善，您的同行剛剛在他們的電話中提到了類似的事情。所以我只是好奇為什麼你認為你會在北加州全年看到這種溫和的租金成長環境，如果你已經開始在季節性疲軟時期看到復甦的跡象。

Eric, it's Angela here. On Northern California, it's really -- when we look at our market rent growth, it's a -- we do see potential upside. Having said that, that will require the tech companies to hire -- to resume their hiring in a more robust way. And so our forecast is really a function of the general market outlook because we cannot disconnect from what's happening with the rest of the country. And in particularly, the North Cal region itself it's really dampened by Oakland because of the amount of supply. And so if you look at the 1.25% market rent composition, first of all, it's a narrow range, just given the overall economic environment. But our Southern California leads the portfolio and above that 1.25% and Seattle is a close second. But the drag is really Northern California, which is closer to 1%, so below that 1.25% average, and that's because Oakland is well below that 1%. So it's -- that's the drag.

埃里克，我是安琪拉。在北加州，當我們觀察市場租金成長時，我們確實看到了潛在的上漲空間。話雖如此，這將需要科技公司進行招募——以更強有力的方式恢復招募。因此，我們的預測實際上是整體市場前景的函數，因為我們無法與該國其他地區正在發生的事情脫節。尤其是北加州地區本身，由於供應量的原因，確實受到奧克蘭的抑制。因此，如果你看看 1.25% 的市場租金組成，首先，考慮到整體經濟環境，這是一個狹窄的範圍。但我們的南加州在投資組合中領先，超過 1.25%，西雅圖緊隨其後。但真正拖累的是北加州，它接近 1%，因此低於 1.25% 的平均水平，這是因為奧克蘭遠低於 1%。這就是——這就是阻力。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as far as your renewals, when does the concession burn off sort of the comp get harder? And where are you sending renewals for the next couple of months if you sort of exclude to that concession burn off?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，就您的續約而言，什麼時候特許經營會變得更加困難？如果您排除了該優惠的消耗，那麼接下來幾個月您將在哪裡發送續訂？

Eric, this is Jessica. The -- as far as renewal burn off, Barb mentioned it earlier, right now, it's roughly 50-50, and it becomes less so with regards to concession burn-off as we progress through Q1. Our concession strategy last year, I think we averaged roughly half week free last year, and there were some lumpiness as we dealt with delinquent units. So we may see that show up periodically. But with regards to forward-looking renewals we've sent out February and March at roughly 3%, 3.5% and it's a little bit less than 50-50. It's probably more like 60-40, and it will continue to progress that way. Like I said, unless we have pockets of heavy concession usage from last year.

艾瑞克，這是潔西卡。就續約燒毀而言，Barb 之前提到過，現在大約是 50-50，隨著我們在第一季的進展，特許權燒毀的情況會變得越來越少。我們去年的特許經營策略，我認為去年我們平均大約有半週的免費時間，並且在處理拖欠單位時存在一些波動。所以我們可能會看到它定期出現。但就前瞻性續約而言，我們在 2 月和 3 月發出的續約率約為 3%、3.5%，略低於 50-50。可能更像是 60-40，並且會繼續這樣發展。就像我說的，除非我們去年有大量的特許權使用。

Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alexander Goldfarb 和 Piper Sandler。

So a few -- 2 questions here. First, I do like the updated S-17, it's much simpler and I think brings the focus to just the data that you guys provide, so that's good. So 2 questions here. First, on the pref equity book, I'm assuming that you guys did not underwrite sort of like low 3 cap deals at the peak or such. But can you just walk through where your investments sit in the capital stack. And as we hear articles or read stories about low 3 cap deals being revalued into the 5s, and what that does to people's equity and the associated debt. Can you just walk through your pref book and how you underwrote it and how we should think about it from a cap rate perspective?

這裡有兩個問題。首先，我確實喜歡更新後的 S-17，它更簡單，我認為將重點放在你們提供的數據上，所以這很好。所以這裡有兩個問題。首先，在優先股權簿上，我假設你們沒有在高峰期承銷類似低三上限交易之類的交易。但可以簡單介紹一下你的投資在資本堆疊中的位置嗎？當我們聽到有關低 3 上限交易被重估為 5 的文章或故事時，以及這對人們的股本和相關債務有何影響。您能否簡單介紹一下您的偏好書以及您如何承保它以及我們應該如何從上限利率的角度考慮它？

Yes, Alex, this is Barb. There's a lot of moving parts to that question. And every asset is different. What we have is a comprehensive model where we value every asset every quarter. And what we're really focused on is where is our last dollar sit? Where are transactions occurring? And where is -- what is the exit strategy and our response is going to continue to fund equity shortfalls. We're also looking at their debt maturities, their caps and swaps they have in place as well as their interest reserves with their lenders. So there's a variety of factors that go into it. I do think we've scrubbed the book.

是的，亞歷克斯，這是倒鉤。這個問題有很多變化的部分。每項資產都是不同的。我們擁有的是一個全面的模型，我們每季都會對每項資產進行評估。我們真正關注的是我們的最後一塊錢在哪裡？交易發生在哪裡？退出策略在哪裡，我們的因應措施是繼續為股權缺口提供資金。我們也會關注他們的債務期限、上限和掉期，以及他們與貸款人的利息儲備。因此，其中涉及多種因素。我確實認為我們已經擦洗了這本書。

We stopped accrual on 2 others. They were in Northern California and given where we were in the stack, and we're watching a few others closely. But for the most part, we're at very reasonable valuations on the rest of the book and are not concerned with it. And we've consistently got redemptions even in the fourth quarter, we were redeemed out of one of our assets. And so we feel good about the rest of the book, and we've not had to take back an asset. We found solutions and I think that goes to our disciplined underwriting of our guarantors.

我們停止了另外 2 個項目的累積。他們在北加州，考慮到我們在堆疊中的位置，我們正在密切關注其他一些人。但在大多數情況下，我們對本書其餘部分的估值非常合理，並不關心它。即使在第四季度，我們也一直得到贖回，我們的一項資產被贖回。因此，我們對本書的其餘部分感覺良好，我們不必收回資產。我們找到了解決方案，我認為這有助於我們對擔保人進行嚴格的承保。

O kay. And Barb, just to be clear on that, the 2 in Northern California, they're not paying so they're on nonaccrual or you just were precautionary and then the other, I think, I know that you're watching, do you expect those to go on nonaccrual?

好的。倒鉤，要明確一點，北加州的那兩個人，他們沒有付款，所以他們是非應計的，或者你只是出於預防措施，然後另一個，我想，我知道你在看，是嗎？期望那些繼續非應計利息？

So the 2 in the fourth quarter, we put them on nonaccrual. They weren't required to pay current, but we put them on nonaccrual just given where we are in the stack. They have near-term maturities as well and we're working with the sponsors on those debt refinancings. And then the other ones that we're monitoring, we're assessing that -- we'll assess that quarter-by-quarter. We have reserved it in the guidance, but we're assessing it based on current market conditions.

因此，第四季的 2 項，我們將其計入非應計項目。他們不需要支付當前費用，但考慮到我們在堆疊中的位置，我們將它們設為非應計費用。它們也有短期到期日，我們正在與贊助商合作進行這些債務再融資。然後我們正在監控的其他項目，我們正在評估——我們將逐季度進行評估。我們在指南中保留了它，但我們正在根據當前的市場狀況進行評估。

Okay. And then, Barb, just on the guidance front, hearing how you guys have described the market, Seattle is the week one. Oakland is weak, but your other Bay Area is fine. Southern Cal is obviously great. You're recapturing the COVID units. The OpEx is what it is. You have very little supply in the rest of the portfolio, and it sounds like the jobs outlook from what Angela described is fine. So are there any addition-- like it doesn't sound like there are really many headwinds in your portfolio. You don't have the supply issues that are plaguing other markets or geographies.

好的。然後，Barb，就在指導方面，聽聽你們如何描述市場，西雅圖是第一週。奧克蘭很弱，但其他灣區還不錯。南加州顯然很棒。你正在奪回新冠部隊。營運支出就是這樣。投資組合的其餘部分供應很少，安吉拉描述的就業前景聽起來不錯。那麼還有什麼補充嗎——聽起來你的投資組合中並沒有太多阻力。您不會遇到困擾其他市場或地區的供應問題。

So are there any other headwinds that we should be thinking about as far as your earnings? Or is this -- or what I've outlined is pretty much how you guys are looking at the landscape this year.

那麼，就您的收入而言，我們還應該考慮其他不利因素嗎？或者是這樣的——或者我所概述的基本上就是你們對今年情況的看法。

Alex, it's Angela here. I think you're on point as far as how we see our portfolio. We do see that we have a very stable portfolio and supply definitely is a benefit for us. There are -- the variability really relates to the timing on the delinquency. And that is that is one aspect of our business that we don't have as much control as we would like because we are subject to how long it takes for the court to process these delinquency units. The good news is that, that process timing has begun to decline. So for example, last year, when we're talking about L.A., it took about 10 to 12 months. And currently, we're down to 8 months. Everywhere else used to be 9 to 10 months, now it's down to 6 months. So we're making good progress there, but that remains an open item for us as far as the risk is concerned.

亞歷克斯，這是安吉拉。我認為您對於我們如何看待我們的投資組合是正確的。我們確實看到我們擁有非常穩定的投資組合，供應絕對對我們有利。變化確實與拖欠的時間有關。這是我們業務的一個方面，我們沒有我們想要的那麼多控制權，因為我們受到法院處理這些拖欠單位所需時間的限制。好消息是，該流程的時間已經開始減少。例如，去年，當我們談論洛杉磯時，大約需要 10 到 12 個月的時間。目前，我們的時間縮短到了 8 個月。以前其他地方需要 9 到 10 個月，現在縮短到 6 個月。因此，我們在這方面取得了良好進展，但就風險而言，這對我們來說仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。

Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

I just wanted to dig a little more into your comments on insurance. I think you said up 30%. Can you just talk about what you're seeing there? Is that definitely the number? Is there any kind of variability to that? And does this last round of storms we've seen over the last few weeks impact that at all? Or is it more forward-looking?

我只是想進一步了解您對保險的評論。我想你說的是漲30%。您能簡單談談您在那裡看到的情況嗎？確定是這個數字嗎？這有什麼變化嗎？過去幾週我們看到的最後一輪風暴是否會對此產生影響？還是更具前瞻性？

Jamie, it's Barb. So we did our property and earthquake insurance renewal in December. So that number is fairly baked for the year. We still have our general liability, but we don't that to move the needle too much. So 30%, I think, is the number. It is still a very challenging insurance market, and we do have a captive and we utilize the captive as appropriate to minimize our insurance premiums where appropriate and where we could based on the risk that we would take within the captive. So we used all angles to minimize that number, but I think it is still going to be a challenging market for the foreseeable future.

傑米，我是巴布。因此，我們在 12 月更新了財產保險和地震保險。所以這個數字對於今年來說是相當成熟的。我們仍然承擔一般責任，但我們不會採取太大行動。所以我認為 30% 就是這個數字。這仍然是一個非常具有挑戰性的保險市場，我們確實有自保公司，我們會根據我們在自保公司內承擔的風險，酌情利用自保公司來最大限度地減少我們的保險費。因此，我們從各個角度來盡量減少這個數字，但我認為在可預見的未來，這仍然是一個充滿挑戰的市場。

In terms of the storms that won't impact the number this year, but what the [carriers] will do next year is still -- it's undetermined. I think what we need to see in the insurance market is the reinsurers that come back into the market in a big way for the premiums to start to come down. And in terms of storm damage, we haven't had anything material. We've had obviously some leaks and some minor things, but nothing material related to the storms.

就風暴而言，今年的數量不會受到影響，但明年[運營商]將做什麼仍然是不確定的。我認為我們在保險市場上需要看到的是再保險公司大規模重返市場，保費開始下降。至於風暴造成的損失，我們還沒有任何實質的資料。顯然我們有一些洩漏和一些小問題，但沒有任何與風暴有關的材料。

Okay. That's helpful. I know it's so hard to like quantify because there's a waterfall at every tranche of the coverage, but is there a way to give a number of like your captive exposure? Like what percentage of total liability does fall on the company versus third party? It seems like more and more REITs are growing their captives or using their captives more. I just wonder if there's a way to benchmark that seems so convoluted.

好的。這很有幫助。我知道量化是非常困難的，因為每個覆蓋範圍都有一個瀑布，但是有沒有辦法提供像你的圈養曝光這樣的數字？例如公司與第三方承擔的總責任百分比是多少？似乎越來越多的房地產投資信託基金正在擴大其自保資產或更多地利用其自保資產。我只是想知道是否有一種看起來如此複雜的基準測試方法。

Yes, that's -- it's Angela here. That's a tough one to quantify because even though there are more REITs looking at the captive and then I think it makes sense to do so. Everyone approach how they take first loss and that first layer differently. And so I don't know if you can really get apples-to-apples. We'll look into it and see if there's a better way to provide some additional context.

是的，那就是──這裡是安琪拉。這是一個很難量化的問題，因為儘管有更多的房地產投資信託基金正在關注自保公司，但我認為這樣做是有意義的。每個人對待第一次損失和第一層的方式都不同。所以我不知道你是否真的能做到同等對待。我們將研究它，看看是否有更好的方法來提供一些額外的上下文。

And the other thing I would just add on that is we've had a captive for decades, and we have a marketable securities portfolio of over $100 million which is the premium that we would have paid to third parties that are there to backstop any major insurance loss that we have. So we a substantial amount of money sitting there on our balance sheet because of that.

我要補充的另一件事是，我們已經擁有了數十年的俘虜，並且我們擁有超過 1 億美元的有價證券投資組合，這是我們向支持任何重大事件的第三方支付的溢價。我們擁有的保險損失。因此，我們的資產負債表上有大量資金。

Okay. That's very helpful. Have you grown the exposure in recent years or not necessarily?

好的。這非常有幫助。近年來您的曝光度是否有增加？

Not necessarily. We will ebb and flow earthquake depending on the earthquake premiums that are out there because sometimes the earthquake coverage can be extreme. So we will look at that in a different way, but we do have third-party earthquake on all high rises and [5 stories] enough. But outside of that, we haven't taken on any real significant risk in the last few years.

不必要。我們將根據現有的地震溢價來判斷地震的潮起潮落，因為有時地震覆蓋範圍可能會非常大。所以我們會以不同的方式看待這個問題，但我們確實在所有高層建築和 [5 層樓] 上發生了第三方地震。但除此之外，我們在過去幾年中沒有承擔任何真正的重大風險。

Our next question is from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Adam Kramer。

I just wanted to ask you about kind of the new versus renewal spread. And I know it's been talked about a little bit already, but just wondering if you were to look over whether it's a long run average or maybe go back to kind of prior recessions even and use that as kind of the test case. Wondering what the kind of spread historically was between new and renewals?

我只是想問你關於新的和續訂的傳播情況。我知道這已經被討論過一些了，但只是想知道你是否要看看它是否是長期平均值，或者甚至可能回到之前的衰退並將其用作測試案例。想知道歷史上新的和續訂之間的價差是怎麼樣的？

Adam, it's Angela here. That one -- the relationship between renewal and new lease rates is really driven by what the prior year's new lease rate is. So for example, in 2022, our market rents or new lease rates were north of 11%. And so that, of course, means that you can have a much higher renewal rate to take it to market. And so that relationship really will be driven by whatever the market rent is going to be and the renewal then follows. It's really a lagging effect. So there isn't an exact number that you really can peg just because it's really one follows the other, not so much that there is a logical relationship that you could just use as a benchmark for trending purposes.

亞當，我是安琪拉。續租和新租賃費率之間的關係實際上是由上一年的新租賃費率決定的。例如，2022 年，我們的市場租金或新租賃率將超過 11%。當然，這意味著您可以擁有更高的續訂率來將其推向市場。因此，無論市場租金如何，這種關係實際上都將受到驅動，然後更新就會隨之而來。這確實是個滯後效應。因此，沒有一個確切的數字可以真正確定，因為它確實是一個接著另一個，而不是存在一種邏輯關係，您可以將其用作趨勢目的的基準。

Got it. That's really helpful. And just on the kind of pref equity, you kind of may be getting kind of more and more money back from that than you have in the past. And I know in the past you word asked about kind of, hey, would you look at other markets in the U.S., right, other markets outside of West Coast. And maybe with getting kind of more proceeds back from the pref equity, having a little bit more dry powder, that could enable you to maybe take a harder look at some markets outside of the West Coast, so figure I'd asked that question.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。僅就優先股而言，您可能會比過去獲得越來越多的資金。我知道過去你問過，嘿，你會看看美國的其他市場，對吧，西海岸以外的其他市場。也許從優先股權中獲得更多收益，擁有更多的乾粉，這可能會讓你能夠更仔細地審視西海岸以外的一些市場，所以我想我會問這個問題。

Adam. No, that's a good question. We actually have -- I know this is not a surprise, we get this question on a regular basis, and it's fair to ask. We have historically a disciplined approach when it comes to evaluating markets, not just within our own markets. And so we do look at all the major metros across the U.S. and it's part of our annual study to make sure that we have a good handle on what are driving the fundamentals of other markets as well. And so this is not to say that we wouldn't venture into other markets or take whatever proceeds available.

亞當。不，這是個好問題。我們實際上——我知道這並不奇怪，我們經常收到這個問題，而且問這個問題很公平。歷來，我們在評估市場時都採用嚴格的方法，而不僅僅是在我們自己的市場內。因此，我們確實關注了美國所有主要大都市，這是我們年度研究的一部分，以確保我們能夠很好地掌握推動其他市場基本面的因素。因此，這並不是說我們不會冒險進入其他市場或獲得任何可用的收益。

It's really a function of how we view the relative value. And what I mean by that is as I mentioned earlier, when we look at the fundamentals of our markets with recovery ahead of us with potential demand catalysts from these large companies and low supply and affordability metrics, that just speaks to the fact that our market has much more upside and lower risk from supply. And so it's more compelling in the near term to focus our investments in our markets. We will, of course, continue to watch the other markets and make sure that, that relative value holds.

這實際上取決於我們如何看待相對價值。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，當我們審視我們市場的基本面時，這些大公司的潛在需求催化劑以及低供應和承受能力指標正在復蘇，這只是說明了這樣一個事實：我們的市場供應的上行空間較大，風險較低。因此，短期內將我們的投資集中在我們的市場上更具吸引力。當然，我們將繼續關注其他市場，並確保相對價值保持不變。

Our next question is from Joshua Dennerlein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Joshua Dennerlein。

I just want to go back to your comment that you're sending out renewals at 3%, 3.5% right now, what your guide assume is 1.75% for the full year. I think some of that might just have to do with the free rent burn off. But can you maybe walk us through the cadence of when we get past that for your rent burn-off and when things start to trend down to 1.7% because I assume the second half of the year is actually weaker than the 1.75%.

我只想回到您的評論，您現在以 3%、3.5% 的價格發送續訂，而您的指南假設全年為 1.75%。我認為其中一些可能與免費租金消耗有關。但是，您能否向我們介紹一下當我們克服租金消耗問題時以及當情況開始下降至 1.7% 時的節奏，因為我認為今年下半年實際上低於 1.75%。

Josh, it's Angela here. We are seeing that the benefit of the concession burn-off to begin to abate as we head into the second quarter. And that's why, as Barb mentioned, that you'll see that renewal rates to start to converge to that 1.25% market rent. So that's -- hopefully, that's the cadence that -- that answers your cadence question.

喬什，我是安琪拉。我們看到，隨著進入第二季度，特許權消耗的好處開始減弱。這就是為什麼，正如 Barb 所提到的，你會看到續租率開始向 1.25% 的市場租金收斂。所以這就是——希望這就是節奏——回答了你的節奏問題。

Okay. Yes. No, that's good. And then maybe just one more. For the same-store revenue range, could you walk us through the assumptions that get us to the high and low end of the same-store revenue range of 70 basis points to 2.7%, mostly focused on like blends and occupancy assumptions underlying that?

好的。是的。不，那很好。然後也許還有一個。對於同店收入範圍，您能否向我們介紹一下同店收入範圍的上限和下限（70 個基點至 2.7%）的假設，主要關注其背後的混合和入住率假設？

Yes, Josh, this is Barb. There's a lot of different assumptions that go into the high and the low end. I think the biggest factor will be delinquency and market rent growth that could drive us to either the high or the low end. And as we saw like in the third quarter when we -- or the fourth quarter when we got back a lot of delinquent units, it can have an impact, a temporary impact to our occupancy and to market rent if we get those units back in a low demand period. So there's a variety of assumptions related to that on the high and the low end.

是的，喬什，這是巴布。對於高端和低端有許多不同的假設。我認為最大的因素將是拖欠和市場租金成長，這可能會推動我們走向高端或低端。正如我們在第三季或第四季收回大量拖欠單位時所看到的那樣，如果我們收回這些單位，這可能會對我們的入住率和市場租金產生暫時的影響低需求時期。因此，存在與高端和低端相關的各種假設。

Our next question is from Wes Golladay with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自韋斯·戈拉迪和貝爾德。

Can you give us the balance on the 2 nonaccrual investments? And then can you also comment on what the $20 million noncore G&A charges this year?

您能告訴我們這兩項非應計投資的餘額嗎？那麼您能否評論一下今年 2000 萬美元的非核心 G&A 費用？

Yes. So the 2 that we put on nonaccrual, the balance is $25 million for both and in terms of the $20 million that we have in our guidance, that's mostly related to political contributions. As you know, we're fighting a couple of ballot measures. So that's most of what that's for.

是的。因此，我們採用非應計制的 2，兩者的餘額均為 2500 萬美元，就我們指導中的 2000 萬美元而言，這主要與政治捐款有關。如您所知，我們正在反對幾項投票措施。這就是大部分的用途。

Okay. And then I guess, maybe bigger picture, supply is still relatively low at the portfolio level and rent growth is call it, low 1%. Is it just mainly the markets with heavy supply bringing that -- the blend down for you. You also mentioned something in the comments earlier about the job growth is being driven by service-related jobs. So I'm just wondering if the job mix is also playing a big part of the forecast this year.

好的。然後我想，也許從更宏觀的角度來看，投資組合層面的供應仍然相對較低，租金成長也被稱為低 1%。是不是主要是供應量大的市場導致了混合物的下降？您在先前的評論中也提到，就業成長是由服務相關工作所推動的。所以我只是想知道工作組合是否在今年的預測中也扮演了重要角色。

Wes, on the rents for our guidance, it's a couple of factors. So first is what you mentioned, the service sector jobs, which has been -- which has dominated the job growth last year. And we've all seen the announcements recently. The -- lots of companies are still retooling and reevaluating. And so typically, if you look at the long-term average of our job growth and the composition, normally, you would want about 30% of those jobs to come from higher wage jobs. And so in this environment, which with the consensus -- the macro consensus of a soft landing, we certainly wouldn't be forecasting. We wouldn't be getting ahead of them forecasting robust high wage job growth. And so that's one key factor.

韋斯，關於我們指導的租金，有幾個因素。首先是你提到的服務業就業，它一直主導著去年的就業成長。我們最近都看到了這些公告。許多公司仍在重組和重新評估。因此，通常情況下，如果你看看我們就業成長的長期平均和組成，通常你會希望這些就業機會中約 30% 來自薪資較高的就業機會。因此，在這種環境下，有了軟著陸的宏觀共識，我們當然不會進行預測。我們不會先於他們預測高薪就業機會的強勁成長。這是一個關鍵因素。

As far as supply, you're right, for our portfolio, it's only 0.5% for California. Seattle is elevated and close to 1% and higher than last year. Fortunately, for us, it's mostly concentrated in the downtown area and our portfolio is mostly under Eastside. Having said that, there will be some properties that will have to -- that will be impacted by supply, and we'll see concessions elevated on a temporary basis for those assets.

就供應而言，你是對的，對於我們的投資組合來說，加州的供應量僅為 0.5%。西雅圖的增幅接近 1%，高於去年。幸運的是，對我們來說，它主要集中在市中心地區，而我們的投資組合主要位於東區。話雖如此，有些房產將不得不受到供應的影響，我們將看到這些資產的優惠暫時增加。

Our next question is from John Pawlowski with Green Street.

我們的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski。

Barb, I wanted to follow up on your comments on your quarterly process of remarking the values in your preferred equity book and making sure your dollar basis is safe. Are you able to share a rough average loan to value in your prep book right now? On real values, not lagged kind of third-party appraised values?

倒鉤，我想跟進您對季度流程的評論，該流程會在您的優先股賬簿中註明價值並確保您的美元基礎是安全的。現在您可以在您的準備書中分享粗略的平均貸款價值嗎？就實際價值而言，不是滯後的那種第三方評估價值？

Yes. I don't have that in front of me. And I think it varies by asset. So I don't have that in front of me. But it does matter about the rent growth that we've seen in each asset for each property and how we underwrote it initially. That all plays into fact where we are in the capital stack. But like I said, we do a thorough scrub and we feel comfortable with the book.

是的。我面前沒有那個。我認為這因資產而異。所以我面前沒有這個。但我們在每項房產的每項資產中看到的租金增長以及我們最初如何承保它確實很重要。這一切都影響了我們在資本堆疊中的位置。但就像我說的，我們進行了徹底的擦洗，我們對這本書感到很舒服。

Okay. One more for you, Barb. How much success, if any, have you had collecting past written off rent from tenants that have moved out? I'm just not -- I don't have a good sense of how much teeth you guys have to go after credit scores and how much you're able to actually collect from the huge kind of cumulative written off rent balance?

好的。巴布，再給你一份。您在向已搬出的租戶收取過去註銷的租金方面取得了多少成功（如果有）？我只是不知道你們需要花多少力氣去追求信用評分，以及你們能夠從巨額累計註銷租金餘額中實際收取多少錢？

Yes. It's a small component of our monthly collections. We are collecting a little bit every month on that past due rent because we have hit their credit and gone after them. But -- and because of our conservative approach to how we account for bad debt, whereby if you're delinquent after 30 days, we reserve against it in the financials, when we go and hit their credit and they need their credit, they will start to pay.

是的。它只是我們每月收藏的一小部分。我們每個月都會收取一點逾期租金，因為我們已經達到了他們的信用並追究了他們的責任。但是，由於我們對壞帳的核算方式採取保守態度，如果您在 30 天後拖欠債務，我們會在財務中對其進行保留，當我們去追究他們的信用並且他們需要信用時，他們會開始付款。

So we've -- it is a recurring part of our income given how we account for it, but it's hard to quantify, and it is lumpy. It moves around month-to-month. And we do expect it will be a reoccurring part for the foreseeable future given we have over $130 million in uncollected rent. But it will be a small part, but it will be drips and drabs.

所以我們——考慮到我們如何解釋它，它是我們收入的經常性部分，但它很難量化，而且是不穩定的。它每月都會變動。鑑於我們有超過 1.3 億美元的未收租金，我們確實預計在可預見的未來，這將是一個重複發生的部分。但它會是一小部分，但會是點點滴滴。

Our next question is from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

I wanted to go back to your market rent forecast of 1.25% for the year, which is below what you had a year ago. Angela mentioned in the prepared remarks, layoff announcements have come down quite a bit year-over-year. So I was just wondering, are you actually seeing more move-outs due to job losses this year versus a year ago when it seemed like tech layoffs were a lot more prevalent?

我想回到你們今年 1.25% 的市場租金預測，這低於一年前的水平。安吉拉在準備好的演講中提到，裁員公告較去年同期大幅下降。所以我只是想知道，與一年前相比，今年科技公司裁員似乎更為普遍，你是否真的看到了更多因失業而搬出的情況？

John, it's Angela here. We have not seen more move-outs to job loss, and we do track that. When we look at move-out reasons, it's relatively stable. And so our market outlook is really a function of where the economy is and how we believe we would perform relative to the overall economy.

約翰，我是安琪拉。我們沒有看到更多的人因失業而搬出，我們確實對此進行了跟踪。從遷出原因來看，是相對穩定的。因此，我們的市場前景實際上取決於經濟狀況以及我們認為我們相對於整體經濟的表現如何。

Okay. So just projecting unemployment rate moving up?

好的。那麼只是預測失業率上升呢？

Yes. And I think, John, just to add to that. I think the mix of jobs has been -- we've seen a change in mix over the last year as the high-quality jobs have not been added in mostly service sector, as Angela mentioned earlier. And I think that, that is -- we just don't see that changing in this environment given the slow economy. So that could change. That would be upside to the forecast, but it's not our base case at this point. And that's what's driving the below average.

是的。約翰，我想補充一下。我認為，去年我們看到了工作組合的變化，因為正如安吉拉之前提到的，大多數服務業並未增加高品質的工作。我認為，鑑於經濟緩慢，我們只是沒有看到這種環境改變。所以這可能會改變。這將有利於預測，但這不是我們目前的基本情況。這就是導致低於平均的原因。

Can I clarify on the impairment that you had in your preferred? Do you still have a position in this asset? Or was it -- was the loan fully written off due to the recapitalization or some other kind of event?

我可以澄清一下您的偏好受到的損害嗎？您仍然持有該資產嗎？還是——貸款是否由於資本重組或其他某種事件而被完全註銷？

We still have our investment in the asset. But because our -- the loan and our investment matures in October of this year and because we don't feel we'll fully realize our valuation by the end of the term of our maturity of our loan, we impaired the asset, which is consistent with GAAP accounting rules. We do believe in the asset long term and the market long term, we're obviously in a very depressed market in Oakland. And but it's going to take time for that market to recover.

我們仍然對該資產進行投資。但是，因為我們的貸款和投資將於今年 10 月到期，而且我們認為在貸款到期期限結束時我們無法完全實現我們的估值，所以我們對資產進行了減值，即符合GAAP會計規則。我們確實相信資產的長期發展和市場的長期發展，我們顯然正處於奧克蘭一個非常低迷的市場。但該市場的復甦需要時間。

We need to see supply abate, which we will start to happen in '25 and really into '26. And that should bring rents up. And so that will help our investment long term. The sponsor continues to fund equity shortfalls and is actively putting money into the project, and we are working actively with them on the refi that will be coming up here in the fall.

我們需要看到供應減少，這將在 25 年開始發生，並真正進入 26 年。這應該會導致租金上漲。這將有助於我們的長期投資。贊助商繼續為股權短缺提供資金，並積極向該項目投入資金，我們正在與他們積極合作，進行將於秋季進行的再融資。

What is the likelihood you put more capital into the project or take ownership of the asset?

您向專案投入更多資金或獲得資產所有權的可能性有多大？

I think that will be determined as we work through the refinance and based on the sponsor's response to the refinance. So it's a little too early and premature to talk about that. We'll know more as we work through that this summer.

我認為這將在我們進行再融資時並根據贊助商對再融資的反應來確定。所以現在談論這個還為時過早。當我們今年夏天解決這個問題時，我們會了解更多。

Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

How is demand trending in your markets? And if you can quantify that in any way, like the number of property tours that would be helpful. Like in a market like Seattle, does increase supply in the urban core combined with return to office draw residents away from the more suburban Essex properties?

您所在市場的需求趨勢如何？如果你能以任何方式量化這一點，例如參觀房產的數量，那將會很有幫助。就像西雅圖這樣的市場一樣，市中心供應的增加以及重返辦公室是否會吸引居民遠離埃塞克斯郊區的房產？

Michael, this is Jessica. I can provide you some basics, I guess, as far as how leasing fundamentals are going in our markets. And it's really trending as expected in all of our markets. Right now, when we're looking at things like lead volume is steadily increasing, which is what we would expect this time of year and then also leasing activity overall is stable.

邁克爾，這是傑西卡。我想我可以為您提供一些基本知識，以了解我們市場中租賃基本面的情況。在我們所有的市場中，它的趨勢確實符合預期。目前，當我們看到諸如鉛量穩定增長之類的事情時，這是我們每年這個時候所期望的，然後租賃活動總體也穩定。

As far as quantifying it goes, I mean, we really see that increase in demand that we would expect, of course, correlates to whatever sequential rent growth that we see. And we pointed that out earlier, we saw good growth in both NorCal and Seattle. And that's something that is in part due to concession burn off. Those are our most seasonal markets. So we do expect them to grow more substantially on a sequential basis. But overall, they're performing as expected, in line with what we would expect at the time of the year.

就量化而言，我的意思是，我們確實看到了我們預期的需求成長，當然，與我們看到的任何連續租金成長相關。我們之前指出，我們在北加州和西雅圖都看到了良好的成長。這部分是由於特許權消耗所致。這些是我們最具季節性的市場。因此，我們確實預計它們將環比大幅增長。但總體而言，它們的表現符合預期，符合我們今年的預期。

Got it. And my follow-up question is on rent control. Have you seen any change in the rent control environment in your markets? And then given that it's an election year, does that create a little bit more noise than a traditional year?

知道了。我的後續問題是關於租金管制。您發現您所在市場的租金管制環境有任何變化嗎？鑑於今年是選舉年，這是否會比傳統年份產生更多的噪音？

Michael, in an environment where we're looking at 1.25% market rent growth, we certainly don't expect an elevated concern when it comes to the rent control conversation. Now there is, I think many of you are aware that there is a proposition out there to repeal Costa-Hawkins, again, sponsored by Michael Weinstein, the Head of the AIDS Foundation. And we, of course, participate in the housing coalition that supports responsible legislation and we do not view that this proposal to repeal the Costa-Hawkins Housing Act will have traction because it's -- this is the third time that this proposal has come up. And in the past 2 times, it was overwhelmingly defeated, only 1 out of 58 counties voted in favor of repealing Costa-Hawkins and they -- and that was by a narrow margin.

Michael，在我們預期市場租金成長 1.25% 的環境下，我們當然預期租金管制對話不會引起更多關注。現在，我想你們很多人都知道，有一個廢除科斯塔-霍金斯法案的提案，再次由愛滋病基金會負責人邁克爾·韋恩斯坦發起。當然，我們參加了支持負責任立法的住房聯盟，我們不認為廢除《科斯塔-霍金斯住房法》的提案會具有吸引力，因為這是該提案第三次提出。在過去的兩次中，它都以壓倒性的優勢被擊敗，58 個縣中只有 1 個縣投票支持廢除科斯塔-霍金斯法案，而且他們以微弱優勢投票支持。

And it lacks the governance and general political support, it is viewed as an antigrowth proposal that will deter housing production when we already have a housing shortage. And so that -- but that is one that we are watching carefully. But beyond that, that's a normal operating environment for us from a legislative perspective.

它缺乏治理和普遍的政治支持，被視為一項反成長提案，當我們已經出現住房短缺時，它將阻礙住房生產。所以——但這是我們正在仔細觀察的一個。但除此之外，從立法角度來看，這對我們來說是一個正常的營運環境。

Good luck in 2024.

祝 2024 年好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question is from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

我們的下一個問題來自里奇·安德森和韋德·布希。

So Barb, you said one of the swing factors for you is getting back delinquent units and perhaps into a downtime in the rental market and not knowing what that opportunity would present itself. But I imagine it would be either 0 or something more. And it's just a matter of when that something more hits. Is that it? Because obviously, the delinquent unit wasn't paying rent. I just want to make sure I understand that logically what you're saying there.

Barb，你說對你來說影響因素之一是收回拖欠的單位，也許會陷入租賃市場的停頓期，並且不知道這個機會會帶來什麼。但我想它要么是 0，要么是更多。問題只是何時會有更多的事情發生。是這樣嗎？因為很明顯，拖欠單位沒有支付租金。我只是想確保我從邏輯上理解你所說的內容。

Yes. So yes, and we can take the example of what happened in September, October. We got back hundreds of units or occupancy. So our delinquency dropped about 50 basis points, but our occupancy also dropped commensurately. And then when we backfilled, we gave back a little bit on the rent growth. And so there was a small impact to the bottom line, but it didn't all fall to the bottom line.

是的。所以是的，我們可以以九月、十月發生的事情為例。我們收回了數百個單位或入住率。因此，我們的拖欠率下降了約 50 個基點，但我們的入住率也相應下降。然後，當我們回填時，我們對租金成長進行了一些回饋。所以對底線有一點影響，但並沒有全部落入底線。

Long term, it's beneficial for us. But there is a temporary headwind, especially if you get the units back in a low demand period because then you have to give concessions to backfill those units. If we get the units back during peak leasing season, and we have a strong leasing season, there will be less impact to occupancy and rent growth. Does that make sense?

從長遠來看，這對我們是有利的。但存在暫時的阻力，特別是如果你在需求低迷時期收回這些單位，因為那時你必須做出讓步來回填這些單位。如果我們在租賃旺季收回這些單位，並且租賃季節強勁，那麼對入住率和租金成長的影響就會較小。那有意義嗎？

Why would there be an impact negatively if they weren't paying rent, who cares what the occupancy was if there were 0 rent coming in any way? I'm just curious, I'm not sure I understand why there would be a negative number in that scenario. It would either 0 or something more.

如果他們不支付租金，為什麼會產生負面影響？如果租金為零，誰在乎入住率是多少？我只是很好奇，我不確定我是否理解為什麼在這種情況下會有負數。它要么是 0，要么是更多。

Yes. So I think from your question -- from your perspective, the absolute number is right now, we're going from 0 to something. So you can't be below 0. But keep in mind, the way Barb has outlined the guidance, we are assuming an improvement in delinquency, which means we will need to get -- we do need to convert some of those zeros into a positive number, just to be at midpoint. Does that help?

是的。所以我認為從你的問題來看，從你的角度來看，絕對數字是現在，我們正在從 0 到某個值。所以你不能低於 0。但請記住，Barb 概述指導的方式，我們假設拖欠率有所改善，這意味著我們需要——我們確實需要將其中一些零轉換為正數，恰好位於中點。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes. Okay. Perfect. That's what I was looking for. Yes. And then -- so where there are problems in the bank industry and as it touches multifamily, it's in the rent-regulated area, and we've seen that in New York Community and Signature portfolios and so on, rent regulated can -- is California can be described with that phrase, I assume. I'm curious to what degree you're seeing anything popping up? And if this was covered earlier, I apologize. But is there -- are you in a position to jump on opportunities? Is there a pipeline building of -- of sort of these sort of distressed situations, maturities coming. Anything like that, that is interesting to you? Or is it not really sort of apparently happening at this point as an external growth opportunity for Essex.

是的。好的。完美的。這就是我一直在尋找的。是的。然後，銀行業存在問題的地方，當它涉及多戶住宅時，它就在租金管制領域，我們已經看到，在紐約社區和簽名投資組合等方面，租金管制可以是我想加州可以用這句話來形容。我很好奇你在多大程度上看到了突然出現的東西？如果早些時候報道過這一點，我深表歉意。但是，您是否能夠抓住機會？是否有類似此類困境的管道建設即將到期。類似的事情，你有興趣嗎？或者說，目前這顯然不是艾塞克斯的一個外部成長機會。

Rich, I'll echo what many of our peers have said is we're not currently seeing much distressed selling at all in our markets given the amount of debt coming due in the next couple of years, we anticipate there should be some opportunities, but as of yet, we have yet to really see any force selling. So we are keeping our eyes open and looking for opportunities, but nothing as of yet.

Rich，我同意我們許多同行的說法，鑑於未來幾年到期的債務數量，我們目前在市場上根本沒有看到太多的不良拋售，我們預計應該有一些機會，但到目前為止，我們還沒有真正看到任何強力拋售。因此，我們正在密切關注並尋找機會，但目前還沒有任何進展。

Our next question is from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

In terms of the $134 million in receivables, are there different ways to tip away at that, like get debt collectors involved? Or just anything operationally you can do to get your money back faster?

就 1.34 億美元的應收帳款而言，是否有不同的方式可以提供線索，例如讓收債員參與其中？或者只是您可以採取任何操作來更快地收回資金？

Yes, Linda, we are -- this is Barb. We are pursuing every avenue to try to collect on that money, whether it be taken to small claims court, we've -- being their credit -- and like we are collecting a little bit here and there, but it depends on when they need their credit. And when they need their credit, then they tend to come back and pay, but if they don't need their credit for a long time, then it can sit out there. But every avenue we can pursue, we are pursuing to try to collect on that money.

是的，琳達，我們是－－這是巴布。我們正在尋求各種途徑來收集這筆錢，無論是被帶到小額索賠法庭，我們已經——成為他們的信用——就像我們到處收集一點錢一樣，但這取決於他們什麼時候需要他們的信用。當他們需要信用時，他們往往會回來付款，但如果他們長時間不需要信用，那麼信用就可以放在那裡。但我們所追求的每一條途徑，都是為了籌集這筆錢。

Got it. And then just in terms of getting units back in a low demand period where it's more negative for you, like what are some of the determinants for the timing of when you do get those units back? And how do you forecast that to the extent you can?

知道了。然後，就在需求低迷時期收回單位而言，這對你來說更加不利，例如決定收回這些單位的時間的一些決定因素是什麼？您如何預測這一點？

Linda, that's the $64,000 question of the day. When do we get these darn units back. And for us, it would be great to get them back as soon as possible. The challenge here is that once a unit is in eviction -- when we looked at the fourth quarter, the majority of those tenants just leave. So what that means is, for us, normally, in a normal environment, we have noticed that a tenant is going to vacate. We can pre-lease these units. We can plan for a turnover and of course, coordinated marketing efforts and our site personnel is ready for the move out, move-ins and all those logistics.

Linda，這是今天的 64,000 美元問題。我們什麼時候才能拿回這些該死的單位。對我們來說，盡快讓他們回來就太好了。這裡的挑戰是，一旦一個單位被驅逐——當我們觀察第四季時，大多數租戶就會離開。所以這對我們來說意味著，通常，在正常的環境中，我們注意到租戶將要搬出。我們可以預租這些單位。我們可以規劃營業額，當然還有協調的營銷工作，我們的現場人員已準備好搬出、搬入和所有這些後勤工作。

In a situation where we have a certain number of evictions in play, and we don't know how many are going to come back or when, that's the part that creates that pressure when it comes to pricing and it's very difficult to predict.

在我們有一定數量的驅逐正在進行的情況下，我們不知道有多少人會回來或什麼時候回來，這就是在定價方面造成壓力的部分，而且很難預測。

Our next question is from Buck Horne with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克·霍恩和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I was wondering if -- going to the delinquency issue, if you could maybe add a little color if you're seeing any systemic application fraud or upticks in just application fraud or identity fraud or other types of misrepresentations by tenants? Is this something that's kind of spreading on social media that's becoming more of a structural issue?

我想知道，關於拖欠問題，如果您發現任何系統性申請詐欺或申請詐欺或身分詐欺或租戶的其他類型的虛假陳述有所增加，您是否可以添加一點色彩？這是否是在社群媒體上傳播的、越來越成為結構性問題的事情？

Buck, it's Angela here. We have been -- our team has done a great job staying on top of these potential issues. And when we look at the fraud instances, it has not ticked up or become elevated. And in some instances, say, if it's a building specific issue, we immediately remedied those. And so that really hasn't been a driver for whether it's behavior or impact to our financials.

巴克，我是安琪拉。我們的團隊在應對這些潛在問題方面做得非常出色。當我們查看詐欺實例時，它並沒有增加或升高。在某些情況下，例如，如果這是建築物的特定問題，我們會立即解決這些問題。因此，無論是行為還是對我們財務的影響，這實際上都不是一個驅動因素。

It really is driven by the core processing time. So I'll give you an example. When the tenant goes delinquent, pre-COVID, it only took us about, say, 2 months on average to evict this tenant. Because of the court delays, it's 6 months plus, right, or 8 months if you're in LA. And so that's the time that's getting accumulated. And so we normally have a level of delinquency in our portfolio, but it's elevated now because it's just taking longer.

它確實是由核心處理時間所驅動的。所以我給你舉個例子。在新冠疫情爆發之前，當租戶拖欠租金時，我們平均只需要大約 2 個月的時間來驅逐該租戶。由於法庭延誤，需要 6 個月以上，對吧，如果你在洛杉磯，則需要 8 個月。這就是時間的累積。因此，我們的投資組合通常存在一定程度的拖欠行為，但現在有所上升，因為它只是需要更長的時間。

Got you. Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And just as it relates to your future investment opportunities? Or kind of how you think about capital allocation between urban core or suburban assets and opportunities in your core markets? You're saying there's a lot of upside still yet to be achieved in the West Coast markets and some significant recovery potential. Do you think that applies to the downtown urban cores of L.A., San Fran and Seattle. Is that where you would look to allocate additional dollars first? Or do you think the suburban submarkets would continue to outperform.

明白你了。明白你了。好的。這很有幫助。就像它與您未來的投資機會有關一樣？或者您如何看待城市核心或郊區資產之間的資本配置以及核心市場的機會？您是說西海岸市場仍有很大的上升空間，並且有一些顯著的復甦潛力。您認為這適用於洛杉磯、舊金山和西雅圖的市中心嗎？這是您首先考慮分配額外資金的地方嗎？或者您認為郊區子市場會繼續跑贏大盤。

Buck, it's a good question. Obviously, investment returns driven by what you pay. So we are paying attention to everything that's coming to market, and we'll keep an open mind to any investment. A major consideration for us is also making sure that we are acquiring near our existing footprints, given our unique operating model. We think we can add a lot of value when it's purchased when we buy something near an existing asset collection.

巴克，這是個好問題。顯然，投資回報是由你付出的錢決定的。因此，我們正在關注即將上市的一切，並對任何投資保持開放的態度。鑑於我們獨特的營運模式，我們的一個主要考慮因素還在於確保我們的收購接近我們現有的足跡。我們認為，當我們購買現有資產集合附近的東西時，我們可以增加很多價值。

Now as you know, the majority of those assets happen to be in the suburban market, and that is where we're primarily focused. They also have fewer quality of life issues currently. So a simple answer is we are very focused in our suburban footprint, but we will keep an open mind to anything that crosses our broader markets.

如您所知，大部分資產恰好位於郊區市場，而這正是我們主要關注的領域。他們目前的生活品質問題也較少。因此，一個簡單的答案是，我們非常關注郊區的足跡，但我們將對跨越更廣泛市場的任何事物保持開放的態度。

There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。

Goodbye.

再見。