Essent Group Ltd (ESNT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Abby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Essent Group Limited third-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。我叫艾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Essent Group Limited 歡迎各位參加第三季業績電話會議。（操作說明）

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Phil Stefano with Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係部的菲爾·斯特凡諾先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. Joining me today are Mark Casale, Chairman and CEO; and David Weinstock, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Chris Curran, President of Essent Guaranty. Our press release, which contains Essent's financial results for the third quarter of 2025, was issued earlier today and is available on our website at essentgroup.com.

謝謝你，艾比。各位早安，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有董事長兼執行長馬克·卡薩萊，以及財務長大衛·溫斯托克。Essent Guaranty 總裁 Chris Curran 也出席了電話會議的問答環節。我們今天稍早發布了包含 Essent 2025 年第三季財務業績的新聞稿，該新聞稿可在我們的網站 essentgroup.com 上查閱。

Prior to getting started, I would like to remind participants that today's discussions are being recorded and will include the use of forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒各位參與者，今天的討論將被錄音，並且會涉及前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於目前的預期、估計、預測和假設，但存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements in today's press release, the risk factors included in our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 19, 2025, and any other reports and registration statements filed with the SEC, which are also available on our website.

有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，請參閱今天新聞稿中關於前瞻性聲明的警示性語言、我們在 2025 年 2 月 19 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格中包含的風險因素，以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的任何其他報告和註冊聲明，這些文件也可以在我們的網站上找到。

Now let me turn the call over to Mark.

現在我把電話交給馬克。

Thanks, Phil, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we released our third-quarter 2025 financial results. Our performance this quarter again underscores the resilience of our business as we continue to benefit from favorable credit trends and the interest rate environment, which remains a tailwind for both persistency and investment income. These results reflect the strength of our buy, manage and distribute operating model, which we believe is well suited to navigate a range of macroeconomic scenarios and generate high-quality earnings.

謝謝你，菲爾，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2025 年第三季財務業績。本季我們的業績再次凸顯了我們業務的韌性，我們繼續受益於有利的信貸趨勢和利率環境，這仍然是提高貸款持續率和投資收益的利好因素。這些結果反映了我們買入、管理和分銷營運模式的優勢，我們相信該模式非常適合應對各種宏觀經濟狀況並產生高品質的收益。

For the third quarter of 2025, we reported net income of $164 million compared to $176 million a year ago. On a diluted per share basis, we earned $1.67 for the third quarter compared to $1.65 a year ago. On an annualized basis, our year-to-date return on equity was 13% through the third quarter. As of September 30, our US mortgage insurance in-force was $249 billion, a 2% increase versus a year ago. Our 12-month persistency on September 30 was 86% flat from last quarter, while nearly half of our in-force portfolio has a note rate of 5% or lower.

2025年第三季度，我們公佈的淨收入為1.64億美元，去年同期為1.76億美元。以稀釋後每股收益計算，我們第三季獲利 1.67 美元，去年同期為 1.65 美元。以年率計算，截至第三季末，我們今年的股本回報率為 13%。截至9月30日，我們在美國的有效抵押貸款保險總額為2,490億美元，比一年前增加了2%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的 12 個月保單持續率為 86%，與上一季持平，而我們有效保單組合中近一半的利率為 5% 或更低。

We continue to expect that the current level of mortgage rates will support elevated persistency in the near term. The credit quality of our insurance in force remains strong. The weighted average FICO of 746 and a weighted average original LTV of 93%. Our portfolio default rate increased modestly from the second quarter of 2025 reflecting the normal seasonality of the mortgage insurance business. Meanwhile, we continue to believe that the substantial home equity embedded in our in-force book should mitigate ultimate claims.

我們仍然預期，目前的抵押貸款利率水準將在短期內支撐較高的貸款持續率。我們現有保單的信用品質依然良好。加權平均 FICO 為 746，加權平均原始 LTV 為 93%。從 2025 年第二季開始，我們的投資組合違約率略有上升，這反映了抵押貸款保險業務的正常季節性波動。同時，我們仍然相信，我們現有保單中包含的大量房屋淨值應該能夠減輕最終的索賠金額。

Our consolidated cash and investments as of September 30 totaled $6.6 billion with an annualized investment yield in the third quarter of 3.9%. Our new money yield in the third quarter was nearly 5%, holding largely stable over the past several quarters. We continue to operate from a position of strength with $5.7 billion in GAAP equity, access to $1.4 billion in excess of loss reinsurance and $1 billion in cash and investments at the holding companies. With a 12-month operating cash flow of $854 million through the third quarter, our franchise remains well positioned from an earnings, cash flow and balance sheet perspective.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的合併現金及投資總額為 66 億美元，第三季年化投資報酬率為 3.9%。第三季我們的新資金收益率接近 5%，與過去幾季相比基本上保持穩定。我們繼續保持強勁的經營實力，擁有 57 億美元的 GAAP 權益、14 億美元的超額損失再保險以及控股公司 10 億美元的現金和投資。截至第三季末，我們過去 12 個月的營運現金流為 8.54 億美元，從獲利、現金流和資產負債表的角度來看，我們的特許經營業務仍然處於良好狀態。

We remain committed to a prudent and conservative capital strategy that allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet to navigate market volatility while preserving the flexibility to invest in strategic growth. Thanks to our robust capital position and strength in earnings, we are well positioned to actively return capital to shareholders in a value-accretive fashion.

我們始終堅持審慎保守的資本策略，以維持穩健的資產負債表，因應市場波動，同時維持投資策略成長的彈性。憑藉我們雄厚的資本實力和強勁的獲利能力，我們完全有能力以增值的方式積極地向股東返還資本。

With that in mind, year-to-date through October 31, we have repurchased nearly 9 million shares for over $500 million. At the same time, I am pleased to announce that our Board has approved a common dividend of $0.31 for the fourth quarter of 2025 and a new $500 million share repurchase authorization that runs through year-end 2027.

考慮到這一點，截至今年10月31日，我們已回購近900萬股股票，總額超過5億美元。同時，我很高興地宣布，我們的董事會已批准 2025 年第四季普通股股息為每股 0.31 美元，並批准一項新的 5 億美元股票回購授權，有效期至 2027 年底。

Now let me turn the call over to Dave.

現在我把電話交給戴夫。

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Let me review our results for the quarter in a little more detail. For the third quarter, we earned $1.67 per diluted share compared to $1.93 last quarter and $1.65 in the third quarter a year ago. My comments today are going to focus primarily on the results of our Mortgage Insurance segment, which aggregates our US mortgage insurance business and the GSE and other mortgage reinsurance business at our subsidiary Essent Re.

謝謝馬克，大家早安。讓我更詳細地回顧一下我們本季的業績。第三季度，我們每股攤薄收益為 1.67 美元，而上一季為 1.93 美元，去年同期為 1.65 美元。我今天的演講將主要集中在我們的抵押貸款保險業務部門的業績上，該部門匯總了我們的美國抵押貸款保險業務以及我們子公司 Essent Re 的 GSE 和其他抵押貸款再保險業務。

There is additional information on corporate and other results in Exhibit O of this financial supplement. Our US Mortgage Insurance portfolio ended the third quarter with insurance in force of $248.8 billion, an increase of $2 billion from June 30, and an increase of $5.8 billion or 2.4% compared to $243 billion at September 30, 2024. Persistency at September 30, 2025, was 86% compared to 85.8% at June 30, 2025. Mortgage Insurance net premium earned for the third quarter of 2025 was $232 million and included $15.9 million of premiums earned by Essent Re on our third-party business. The average base premium rate for the US Mortgage Insurance portfolio for the third quarter was 41 basis points, consistent with last quarter, and the average net premium rate was 35 basis points, down 1 basis point from last quarter.

有關公司業績和其他業績的更多信息，請參閱本財務補充文件的附件 O。截至第三季末，我們的美國抵押貸款保險組合的有效保險額為 2,488 億美元，比 6 月 30 日增加了 20 億美元，比 2024 年 9 月 30 日的 2,430 億美元增加了 58 億美元，增幅為 2.4%。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，續約率為 86%，而截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，續約率為 85.8%。2025 年第三季抵押貸款保險淨保費收入為 2.32 億美元，其中包括 Essent Re 從我們的第三方業務中獲得的 1,590 萬美元保費。第三季美國抵押貸款保險組合的平均基本保費率為 41 個基點，與上季一致；平均淨保費率為 35 個基點，較上季下降 1 個基點。

Our US Mortgage Insurance provision for losses and loss adjustment expenses was $44.2 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $15.4 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $29.8 million in the third quarter a year ago. At September 30, the default rate on the US mortgage insurance portfolio was 2.29%, up 17 basis points from 2.12% at June 30, 2025.

2025 年第三季度，我們的美國抵押貸款保險損失和損失調整費用準備金為 4,420 萬美元，而 2025 年第二季為 1,540 萬美元，一年前第三季為 2,980 萬美元。截至 9 月 30 日，美國抵押貸款保險組合的違約率為 2.29%，比 2025 年 6 月 30 日的 2.12% 上升了 17 個基點。

Mortgage Insurance operating expenses in the third quarter were $34.2 million, and the expense ratio was 14.8% compared to $36.3 million and 15.5% last quarter. At September 30, Essent Guaranty's PMIERs sufficiency ratio was strong at 177% with $1.6 billion in excess available assets. Consolidated net investment income and our average cash investment portfolio balance in the third quarter were largely unchanged from last quarter due to our share repurchase activity.

第三季抵押貸款保險營運費用為 3,420 萬美元，費用率為 14.8%，而上一季分別為 3,630 萬美元和 15.5%。截至 9 月 30 日，Essent Guaranty 的 PMIERs 充足率高達 177%，擁有 16 億美元的超額可用資產。由於我們的股票回購活動，第三季綜合淨投資收益和平均現金投資組合餘額與上一季基本持平。

In the third quarter of 2025, we increased our 2025 estimated annual effective tax rate, excluding the impact of discrete items, from 15.4% to 16.2%. This change was primarily due to withholding taxes incurred on a third quarter dividend from Essent US Holdings to its offshore parent company. As Mark noted, our holding company liquidity remains strong and includes $500 million of undrawn revolver capacity under our committed credit facility. At September 30, we had $500 million of senior unsecured notes outstanding and our debt-to-capital ratio was 8%.

2025 年第三季度，我們將 2025 年預計年度有效稅率（不包括個別項目的影響）從 15.4% 提高到 16.2%。這項變更主要是由於 Essent US Holdings 向其海外母公司支付的第三季股息產生了預扣稅。正如馬克所指出的，我們控股公司的流動性依然強勁，包括我們承諾的信貸額度下 5 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。截至 9 月 30 日，我們有 5 億美元的優先無擔保票據未償還，債務資本比率為 8%。

During the third quarter, Essent Guaranty paid a dividend of $85 million to its US holding company. As of October 1, Essent Guaranty can pay additional ordinary dividends of $281 million in 2025. At quarter end, Essent Guaranty's statutory capital was $3.7 billion with a risk-to-capital ratio of 8.9:1. Note that statutory capital includes $2.6 billion of contingency reserves at September 30.

第三季度，Essent Guaranty 向其美國控股公司支付了 8,500 萬美元的股息。截至 2025 年 10 月 1 日，Essent Guaranty 可以支付 2.81 億美元的額外普通股利。截至季末，Essent Guaranty的法定資本為37億美元，創投比率為8.9:1。請注意，截至9月30日，法定資本包括26億美元的緊急儲備金。

During the third quarter, Essent Re paid a dividend of $120 million to Essent Group. Also in the third quarter, Essent Group paid cash dividends totaling $30.1 million to shareholders and we repurchased 2.1 million shares for $122 million. In October 2025, we repurchased 837,000 shares for $50 million.

第三季度，Essent Re 向 Essent Group 支付了 1.2 億美元的股息。第三季度，Essent Group 向股東支付了總計 3,010 萬美元的現金股息，並以 1.22 億美元的價格回購了 210 萬股股票。2025 年 10 月，我們以 5,000 萬美元的價格回購了 837,000 股股票。

Now let me turn the call back over to Mark.

現在我把電話轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Dave. In closing, we are pleased with our third-quarter financial results as Essent continues to generate high-quality earnings, while our balance sheet and liquidity remains strong. Our performance this quarter reflects the strength and resilience of our franchise, while Essent remains well positioned to navigate a range of scenarios given the strength of our buy, manage and distribute operating model.

謝謝你，戴夫。最後，我們對第三季的財務表現感到滿意，Essent 繼續創造高品質的收益，同時我們的資產負債表和流動性仍然強勁。本季業績反映了我們特許經營權的實力和韌性，同時，憑藉我們購買、管理和分銷營運模式的優勢，Essent 仍然能夠很好地應對各種情況。

Our strong earnings and cash flow continue to provide us with an opportunity to balance investing in our business and returning capital. We believe this approach is in the best long-term interest of our stakeholders and that Essent is well positioned to deliver attractive returns for our shareholders.

我們強勁的獲利和現金流持續為我們提供了平衡業務投資和資本回報的機會。我們相信，這種做法符合我們利害關係人的長遠利益，Essent 也完全有能力為我們的股東帶來可觀的回報。

Now let's get to your questions. Operator?

現在我們來回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Terry Ma, Barclays.

（操作說明）Terry Ma，巴克萊銀行。

Just wanted to start off with credit. New notices were a bit lower than what we had, but the provision on those notices were higher. So any color on kind of just the makeup from a vintage or even geography perspective this quarter?

先聲明一下信用情況。新通知的數量比我們之前的數量略少，但這些通知中的條款卻更嚴格。那麼，本季在妝容方面，從復古風或地理風的角度來看，會有什麼色彩趨勢嗎？

Yeah, hey, Terry, it's Mark. I wouldn't say there's nothing really to read out in terms of geography or trends. The one thing for you guys as analysts, we're pointing this out a few quarters ago is just our average loan size continues to increase. I mean, ever since -- for years, it was like $230,000 when the GSEs started raising their limits and it really kind of picked up post-COVID. So our average loan size, if you just look through the stat supplement for the insurance force -- close to $300,000.

嗨，特里，我是馬克。我不會說從地理或趨勢方面有什麼值得關注的資訊。身為分析師，我們幾個季度前就指出過，平均貸款規模持續成長。我的意思是，自從政府支持企業開始提高限額以來，多年來，限額一直維持在 23 萬美元左右，而新冠疫情後限額更是大幅上升。因此，如果您查看保險部隊的統計補充資料，您會發現我們的平均貸款規模接近 30 萬美元。

So again, larger loans when they come through kind of into default is going to be a larger provision. So I wouldn't read any more into it than that. I think the -- again, the default rate's relatively flattish. And I think from a credit position, there's nothing we're really seeing that concerns us at the current time.

所以，金額較大的貸款一旦違約，就需要撥備更大的準備金。所以我覺得沒必要想太多。我認為——再次強調，違約率相對平穩。我認為從信貸角度來看，目前沒有什麼真正讓我們擔憂的事情。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on the claims amount. The number was higher and also the severity. So like anything to call out there, like anything idiosyncratic? Or is there more of a trend? Thank you.

知道了。那很有幫助。然後或許還需要跟進一下理賠金額。數字更高，嚴重程度也更高。所以，有什麼需要特別指出的嗎？有什麼獨特之處嗎？或者說，這是一種趨勢？謝謝。

Hey, Terry, it's Dave Weinstock. Yes, there's really nothing to point out there. A lot of that's going to depend on when we get documents in and when the claims are fully adjudicated and ready for payment. And so you're going to see fluctuations based on what the underlying claims are. But at the end of the day, there are not a lot of claims there. And the biggest takeaway really is that the severity continues to be well below what we're reserving at. So we're getting favorable results there.

嘿，特里，我是戴夫·溫斯托克。是的，確實沒什麼需要指出的。很多事情都取決於我們何時收到文件，以及索賠何時得到全面裁決並準備付款。因此，你會看到價格根據基礎索賠情況而出現波動。但歸根究底，這方面並沒有太多可訴之處。而最重要的結論是，疫情的嚴重程度仍然遠低於我們預期的程度。所以，我們在那裡取得了令人滿意的結果。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯·喬治，KBW。

First, just on the ceded premiums, it was kind of the high end of the range. Is that a good level going forward? Or does that just bounce around depending on the timing of when you're doing the reinsurance transactions?

首先，就轉讓保費而言，它算是該範圍內的較高水準。這個水準對未來的發展來說是好事嗎？或者，這是否取決於您進行再保險交易的時間？

Yeah, hey Bose, it's Dave Weinstock. Yes, it's going to bounce around a little bit based on default and provision activity. So it's seasonal. I think you saw the ceded premium being a little bit lower in the first half of the year, similar to where you see our defaults being more favorable and lower. And this is the seasonal second half of the year as we've talked about. We definitely -- you generally see an uptick. And so you're going to see a little bit of an uptick in the ceded premium.

嘿，Bose，我是戴夫·溫斯托克。是的，它會根據預設設定和配置活動略有波動。所以這是季節性的。我認為您已經看到，今年上半年的轉讓保費略低，這與我們看到的違約率更低、更有利的情況類似。正如我們之前所說，現在是下半年的季節性季節。我們當然——通常情況下，你會看到成長。因此，你會看到轉讓保費略有增加。

And also keep in mind, Bose, we raised the quota share this year to 25%. So that is going to create a little bit more volatility. At the end of the day, it comes through the wash, right? So in terms of the mix between the provision and the expenses and ceding commission, but it will bounce around a little bit more. So I'd be conscious of that in your models.

另外，Bose，請記住，我們今年將配額份額提高到了 25%。所以這會造成一些波動。歸根究底，一切都會水落石出，對吧？因此，就供應和支出以及佣金之間的組合而言，它還會略有波動。所以，我希望你在模型中註意這一點。

Okay. Great. And then just in terms of the tax rate, what drove the higher tax rate? And then just can you remind us just based on how much you're ceding, et cetera, where you think the tax rate is going to be over the next, say, 12 months?

好的。偉大的。那麼就稅率而言，是什麼因素導致了更高的稅率呢？那麼，您能否根據您讓渡的金額等等情況，提醒我們一下您認為未來 12 個月的稅率會是多少？

Yeah, I mean I think Dave alluded to it in the script, a lot of it is just a little bit of the tax friction moving from kind of Guaranty to US up to Bermuda and out to shareholders. So I think 16 and maybe a touch higher going forward. I would think through that with your models, I'd be relatively conservative those.

是的，我的意思是，我認為戴夫在劇本中暗示過這一點，很多問題都源於稅收摩擦，從擔保公司到美國，再到百慕大，最終到股東手中。所以我認為16，而且未來可能會略微提高一些。我會結合你的模型仔細考慮，我會採取相對保守的做法。

And it really gets back to the fact that we're just distributing a lot more capital back to shareholders. And that's kind of a little bit of a signal that we don't really see it changing much given we're sitting with still $1 billion of cash at the holdco and kind of where the stock is right around bookish value. And I think we pointed this out last time in our investor deck, which will come out kind of post earnings. Like the embedded value of the business, we believe, is much higher than kind of where we are today, right? And just again, it's simple math.

歸根究底，我們只是把更多的資本分配給了股東。這在某種程度上表明，鑑於控股公司仍然擁有 10 億美元的現金，而且股價也基本上在帳面價值附近，我們認為情況不會有太大變化。我認為我們上次在投資者簡報中已經指出了這一點，該簡報將在財報發布後不久發布。我們相信，企業的內在價值遠高於我們目前的水平，對吧？再說一遍，這只是簡單的數學題目。

It's nothing revolutionary. And we have $6 billion of cash, $6 billion of equity. We trade right around $6 billion, doesn't really give credit for the $250 billion of insurance in force that we have. And that is a significant embedded value. I think we've proven that over the past 10 years in terms of the cash flow.

這沒什麼革命性的。我們有60億美元現金，60億美元股權。我們的交易額約為 60 億美元，但這並沒有真正反映出我們擁有的 2500 億美元的有效保險額。這是它所蘊含的重要價值。我認為過去 10 年的現金流已經證明了這一點。

And just look, again, just we generated $854 million of cash flow [after] the last 12 months. So based on that and where we're -- just given the capital position, and we're still generating unit economics kind of in that 12-ish to 14-ish range. We think it's the best value. So I think we'll continue to do that. But there, again, just getting the cash out creates a little friction. But I think from a shareholder perspective, we'll pay a couple of extra bucks on the tax rate. But I think from lowering the share count and kind of delivering value to shareholders, it's a little bit of a no-brainer.

再看看，過去 12 個月我們創造了 8.54 億美元的現金流。所以基於此以及我們目前的資本狀況，我們仍然能夠產生大約 12 到 14 左右的單位經濟效益。我們認為這是最划算的。所以我認為我們會繼續這樣做。但是，同樣地，光是取出現金就會產生一些摩擦。但我認為從股東的角度來看，我們願意多付一些稅金。但我認為，從減少股份數量和為股東創造價值的角度來看，這幾乎是顯而易見的。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

Rick Shane，摩根大通。

I'm looking at Exhibit K, and one trend that is pretty consistent is the increase in severity rates, and that makes sense given slowing home price appreciation and vintage mix. It was 78% this quarter. I'm curious, long-term where you think that could go? Are we sort of asymptotically approaching the limit there? Or should we expect that to continue to rise?

我正在查看附件 K，其中一個相當一致的趨勢是嚴重程度的增加，考慮到房價上漲速度放緩和房屋年代構成，這是有道理的。本季為78%。我很好奇，從長遠來看，你認為這會發展成什麼樣子？我們是不是在某種程度上漸近地接近極限了？或者我們應該預期這種情況會持續上升？

Yeah. I mean, I don't know if you would expect it to rise. Again, the provision is at 100, Rick, to say. The embedded HPA in the book is still kind of 75-ish. So I mean, in terms of mark-to-market LTV. So some of it is just timing, right? If somebody from the later vintages kind of call it, 23 or 24, goes into default, there's going to be a higher provision. Or if they go into claim, we're going to pay a higher claim there because they have less embedded value.

是的。我的意思是，我不知道你是否會預期它會上漲。再說一遍，瑞克，規定是 100。書中嵌入的HPA值仍在75左右。我的意思是，就以市值計價的 LTV 而言。所以，其中一部分原因只是時機問題，對吧？如果較晚年份（例如 23 或 24 年）的某個人違約，那麼撥備金額將會更高。或者，如果他們提出索賠，我們將支付更高的賠償金，因為他們的內含價值較低。

But taking a step back just at the portfolio level, we're not going to get too fussed about it, Rick. I mean, again, you're talking about relatively low losses. And remember, and we point this out every quarter or two, just what the real risk is in our business, right? Take from my seat, Rick, we own that first loss position, right? So call it two to three claims out of 100.

但從投資組合層面來看，我們不會對此過度擔心，里克。我的意思是，再說一遍，你談論的是相對較低的損失。記住，我們每隔一兩個季度都會指出這一點，我們業務中真正的風險是什麼，對吧？瑞克，我來說說，我們先承擔第一個虧損頭寸，對吧？所以，大概每100個索賠案例中就有兩到三個。

We hedge out from above that kind of into that six, seven range, and we reattach above that. That's the risk in the business, right? We are a specialty insurance type business, almost like a cat or our catastrophe is a severe macroeconomic recession.

我們在上方對沖到六、七的區間，然後在上方重新加倉。這就是商業風險，對吧？我們是一家專業保險公司，就像貓一樣，或者說我們的災難是嚴重的宏觀經濟衰退。

And that's when we hold capital when we think about PMIERs, we think about the different stress tests that we run, whether it's Moody's, Constant severity S4, the GFC, that's when we come in and think about it week-to-week or month-to-month. We're focused really on making sure we're fine there, and we clearly are given the amount of capital that we're using to repurchase share.

而當我們考慮 PMIER 時，我們就會持有資本，我們會考慮我們進行的各種壓力測試，無論是穆迪的壓力測試、Constant 的 S4 級壓力測試還是全球金融危機壓力測試，這時我們就會每週或每月地進行評估。我們目前最關注的是確保一切順利，而且鑑於我們用於回購股票的資金數額，這一點也顯而易見。

So getting back to this, again, we clearly look at it. I think we're conservative in how we provision just from a severity standpoint because I think that's -- the severity is an actuary -- I mean, the provision's an actuarial-based model. So we don't really mess with it quarter-to-quarter, even year-to-year that much. So again,

所以回到這個問題，我們再次仔細檢視。我認為，從嚴重程度的角度來看，我們在準備金方面比較保守，因為我認為——嚴重程度是由精算師決定的——我的意思是，準備金是基於精算模型的。所以我們不會在季度之間，甚至年度之間進行太多調整。所以，再說一遍，

I'm just trying to -- from a big picture standpoint, sure, you're going to try to trends. And Terry pointed out the trends around the new notices, those are all good. Like you guys have to do that for your models. But I think taken like a step back, the biggest metric for the quarter, Rick, is we produced $854 million of cash over the last 12 months. So again, not trying to get too high level. But I mean, I think it's important to kind of put context around some of these numbers.

我只是想——從大局來看，當然，你會試著把握趨勢。特里指出，新通知的趨勢都是好的。就像你們對模型所做的那樣。但我認為，從更宏觀的角度來看，里克，本季最重要的指標是，我們在過去 12 個月創造了 8.54 億美元的現金流。所以，我並不是想把話題引得太高。但我覺得，有必要給這些數字一些背景資訊。

No. Look, it's a fair point, Mark, given how low losses have been for so long a modest dollar movement looks like a larger -- it looks like a significant percentage movement. And I think we're all sensitive to that and trying to sort of, I think, understand what the normalized returns on the business are. And do you think we are approaching those levels or -- and look, you've enjoyed an extraordinary period for a long time, for a whole host of reasons that we've all talked about. But as the business normalizes and sort of reverts to the return levels that the two of us spoke about a decade ago, do you think we're getting there now?

不。馬克，你說的有道理，考慮到損失一直很低，美元的微小波動看起來就像更大的波動——看起來像是相當大的百分比波動。我認為我們都對此很敏感，並且試圖了解企業的正常回報是多少。你認為我們正在接近這些水平嗎？或者——你看，由於我們都討論過的種種原因，你們已經享受了一段非凡的時期很久了。但隨著業務逐漸恢復正常，並逐漸回到我們十年前談論過的回報水平，你認為我們現在已經接近目標了嗎？

No, it's a good question. And Rick we've been studying this so let's go back in time, right? Let's start with '99 which is really the beginning of the modern day Fannie and Freddie. And let's just go with the last 35 years. If you take away the GFC, which it's hard to do, but just to stick with me here for a second, the average loss rate on Fannie and Freddie back loans is less than 1%. That, I believe, is actually -- so it's not this, oh my goodness, we have such a good run, when is it going to end? This is the business. It's a great business.

不，這是個好問題。瑞克，我們一直在研究這個問題，所以讓我們回到過去，好嗎？讓我們從 1999 年說起，那一年是現代房利美和房地美的真正開端。我們就以過去35年為例吧。如果排除全球金融危機的影響（雖然很難排除，但請容許我先說明一下），房利美和房地美擔保貸款的平均損失率不到 1%。我相信，這實際上——所以不是這樣的，哦，我的天哪，我們一路走來這麼順利，什麼時候才能結束呢？這就是生意。這是一項很棒的生意。

You're talking about -- and again, and some of the things that caused the great financial crisis because you don't want to ignore that. And the reason we like the business, coming out of the crisis you had that Dodd-Frank Qualified Mortgage Rules. So 35% of the loans that were done during the crisis, they no longer qualify. They literally got the [RIF wrapped] out of the industry. So that is now either going -- it's going to either FHA or it's going to kind of non-QM or they're not being originated, which is the most case. A lot of those borrowers are ending up in single-family rental. It's a great outcome for them, right?

你正在談論——而且再次強調——導致金融危機的一些原因，因為你不想忽視這一點。我們喜歡這家公司的原因是，在危機過後，你們推出了《多德-弗蘭克合格抵押貸款規則》。因此，危機期間發放的貸款中有 35% 現在不再符合資格。他們簡直把整個產業搞垮了。所以現在要嘛是——要嘛是 FHA 貸款，要嘛是非合格抵押貸款，要嘛就是根本不發放貸款，這種情況最常見。許多藉款人最終只能租住獨棟住宅。對他們來說，這真是個好結果，對吧？

So then all of a sudden, then you add in the increased, I would say, sophistication of DU and LP at the GSEs. Their quality control has gotten significantly better, I mean, over the last 15 years. So all of a sudden, the credit guardrails around our business are exceptional and we don't see a change. Unless there's something happens with GSE reform, and clearly, we look at that. But as long as the market is where it is today, this is a very narrow fairway. And so we don't see really credit changing that much. It's hard.

所以，突然之間，再加上 GSE 的 DU 和 LP 課程的日益完善，我認為，情況就改變了。他們的品質控制在過去15年裡有了顯著提高。所以突然之間，我們業務的信貸保障措施變得異常嚴格，而且我們看不到任何變化。除非政府支持企業改革有進展，而這顯然是我們需要關注的。但只要市場保持目前的狀況，這條路就非常狹窄。因此，我們認為信貸不會發生太大變化。這很難。

I mean, actually, our credit for the last two quarters, Rick, was the best FICOs we've had since we started the company. So part of it is affordability, like just folks are having a harder time qualifying but the credit quality in this business is exceptional. And just from a public policy standpoint, 65% of our borrowers are first-time homeowners. I mean, I was with a young guy last week who just got mortgage insurance through one of our clients. He's paying like $65 a month, you put 10% down. I mean, you can't beat it. It's a great value to the customer, which you always want to have, right? The borrowers are ultimate customer, and then I think the math for us.

我的意思是，實際上，里克，我們過去兩個季度的信用評分是我們公司成立以來最好的 FICO 評分。部分原因是負擔能力問題，例如人們越來越難獲得貸款資格，但這個行業的信貸品質卻非常出色。僅從公共政策角度來看，我們65%的借款人都是首次購屋者。我的意思是，我上周和一個年輕人在一起，他剛剛透過我們的一位客戶購買了抵押貸款保險。他每月支付約 65 美元，你首付 10%。我的意思是，這簡直無可挑剔。這對顧客來說很有價值，這正是你一直想要的，對吧？借款人是最終客戶，然後我認為數學對我們來說就足夠了。

So I would say from -- and some of our longer-term investors kind of know this clearly. I would stop and one of our other analysts always ask me, Mark, is this as good as it gets? It's been good for a long time. And I don't really -- again, there's going to be some volatility Rick, quarter-to-quarter or year-to-year. If unemployment goes up, we're probably going to pay some losses. But remember, we're kind of capped until we hit -- until we go through that mezz piece.

所以我想說——而且我們的一些長期投資者也清楚地知道這一點。我停下來的時候，我們其他的分析師總是會問我：“馬克，這就是最好的結果了嗎？”一直以來都很好。而且我真的不這麼認為——里克，再說一遍，季度之間或年度之間都會有一些波動。如果失業率上升，我們可能會遭受一些損失。但請記住，在我們達到——直到我們完成那段中間部分之前，我們的發展是有限的。

So it's relatively well boxed. Hence, our confidence in paying the quarterly dividend and right now in terms of where we are returning capital to shareholders has been quite a shift in the past 12 months, but part of it was we've just continued to accumulate cash and we've had this retain and invest mentality. We just haven't invested in anything. And so we look at it now and say the best investment we can make is in the company.

所以它的包裝相對來說比較好。因此，過去 12 個月以來，我們對支付季度股息以及目前向股東返還資本的信心發生了相當大的轉變，部分原因是我們一直在積累現金，並且一直秉持著保留和投資的理念。我們還沒有進行任何投資。所以我們現在看來，最好的投資就是投資這家公司。

And if we keep this pace up, Rick, every time you repurchase shares, our long-term owners, which include the senior management team, we own a little bit more of the company. And if I'm going to own a business, this is my favorite business. So we'll see. So sorry for the long-winded answer, but I want to again try to give some of the investors on the phone some context.

瑞克，如果我們保持這樣的速度，每次你回購股票，我們這些長期股東（包括高階管理團隊）就會擁有公司更多的股份。如果我要擁有一家企業，這就是我最喜歡的企業。我們拭目以待。很抱歉回答得這麼囉嗦，但我還是想再試著給電話那頭的幾位投資人提供一些背景資訊。

No. Mark, look, I appreciate it, and I suspect there are some folks who are listening to this call imagining the two of us on rocking chairs, debating the stuff. And that's okay, too. I appreciate the answer.

不。馬克，聽著，我很感激，而且我懷疑有些人在聽這個電話的時候，會想像我們兩個坐在搖椅上，討論著這些事情。這樣也行。感謝您的解答。

(Operator Instructions) Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

I actually want to follow up on Rick's last question there just about the guardrails, around underwriting currently. I think there was news yesterday about Fannie and removing the minimum credit score requirements. There's been some noise out of Washington about trying to do -- play a more active role in housing or lower increased housing demand, if you will.

我其實想就 Rick 剛才提出的最後一個問題，也就是關於目前承保方面的限制措施，再補充一點。我記得昨天有關於房利美取消最低信用評分要求的新聞。華盛頓方面有一些聲音表示，他們正試圖在住房領域發揮更積極的作用，或降低不斷增長的住房需求。

And I was just wondering from your seat, are you seeing any signs of that? Are originators trying to get more stuff on it? Gets more stuff approved that maybe wouldn't have been -- they wouldn't have tried a couple of years ago. Just wondering what that looks like. Thank you.

我只是想問，從您的角度來看，您是否觀察到任何這方面的跡象？發起者們是想往上面添加更多內容嗎？這樣一來，很多原本可能不會被批准的東西就能獲得批准——幾年前他們根本不會嘗試這麼做。只是好奇是什麼樣子。謝謝。

It's a good question. There is a lot of noise around kind of credit scores and Vantage and [Fair Isaac] and Vantage can qualify more borrowers, all those sort of things. The reality is [from here], the GSEs haven't changed their systems yet. So until that happens, there's really not going to be change. So like a lender would be unable today to kind of [quote] get something past the GSEs.

這是個好問題。關於信用評分、Vantage 和 [Fair Isaac] 等機構有很多說法，例如 Vantage 可以讓更多藉款人獲得資格等等。現實情況是，（從目前的情況來看）政府支持企業還沒有改變他們的系統。所以在此之前，真的不會有任何改變。所以，就像如今的貸款機構無法[引用]讓某些東西繞過政府支持企業一樣。

It gets back to my point, the GSEs, their systems are fantastic. And in terms of DU and LP, very sophisticated. And if they do get through it, most likely their QC and repurchase program, they're going to put that back to lenders. So lenders have -- I think lenders have really understood that the game today, and you're seeing some of the bigger lenders do it, the game today is all about lowering and being efficient on origination cost.

回到我的觀點，GSE（地面支援設備）的系統非常棒。就DU和LP而言，非常先進。如果他們真的成功了，很可能他們的品質控制和回購計畫會把這些錢還給貸款人。所以我認為貸款機構已經真正理解了，如今的遊戲規則，而且你也看到一些大型貸款機構正在這樣做，如今的遊戲規則就是降低貸款發放成本並提高效率。

That hasn't always been the case. So if you go for the crisis, what happened is if you get a small or midsized mortgage banker, and all a sudden production is down, they immediately go to credit expansion right? I wouldn't normally do that loan, but I have fixed costs, I'm going to try to get that loan in either through the GSEs or to whole loan buyers. You can't do that today.

情況並非一直如此。所以，如果你考慮到危機，那麼如果一家中小型抵押貸款銀行突然出現生產下降，他們會立即擴大信貸規模，對嗎？我通常不會做這種貸款，但我有固定支出，我會嘗試透過政府支持企業 (GSE) 或整體貸款購買者來獲得這筆貸款。今天你做不到。

I mean, whether it's -- you're trying to get it through the GSEs, you're trying to go through some of the larger correspondent purchases like PennyMac whose systems are also excellent. And it's not going to happen. So you're almost -- you have to either -- you have to manage costs.

我的意思是，無論是透過政府支援企業 (GSE) 進行採購，還是透過像 PennyMac 這樣規模較大的代理商進行採購（他們的系統也非常出色）。這不可能發生。所以你幾乎——你必須——你必須控製成本。

And again, from a credit provider, that's exactly where we want it. So we're not too worried about it. And if it were to go, we mentioned this last call, if it were to change, right? And I'm not saying it's going. If it were to change and you could have like kind of a wider fairway, so to speak so more things qualify, the fact that our credit engine doesn't really rely on FICO, and we're really -- we're almost credit score agnostic, we're looking at the 400 kind of variables underneath that along with things in the [10-03], we're not too worried. We can see through that.

再次強調，對於信貸提供者而言，這正是我們所希望的。所以我們並不太擔心。如果真的要改變，就像我們上次提到的那樣，對吧？我並不是說它一定會消失。如果情況發生變化，比如說，球道變寬，更多的事情符合條件，而我們的信用引擎實際上並不依賴 FICO 評分，我們幾乎對信用評分不敏感，我們關注的是 400 多個變量以及 [10-03] 中的一些因素，所以我們並不太擔心。我們一眼就能看穿。

In fact, our model works better when things are a little bit more disparate, so to speak. It doesn't work as well in a market like this. It kind of works more from a premium standpoint, picking and choosing, but credit, not -- you almost don't really need it from a FICO standpoint. So again, I would look at it that way. I think it's something that we're pleased with, but I don't see any kind of chink in the guardrails to date.

事實上，我們的模型在事物差異較大的情況下效果更好。在這樣的市場環境下，這種方法效果並不理想。從高端產品的角度來看，它更像是一種選擇，但從信用的角度來看，你幾乎不需要它——從 FICO 信用評分的角度來看，你幾乎不需要它。所以，我還是會從這個角度來看這個問題。我認為我們對此感到滿意，但到目前為止，我還沒有看到任何安全措施出現漏洞。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harter, UBS.

（操作說明）道格·哈特，瑞銀集團。

Can you talk about your plans to upstream capital from the MI subsidiary? It sounds like you have a lot of capacity left for the year. Do you plan to kind of spill that over or do a large dividend in the fourth quarter?

您能否談談您從MI子公司向上游籌集資金的計劃？聽起來你今年還有很多工作要做。您打算將這部分利潤結轉到下個季度，還是在第四季派發大額股息？

I think it's pretty consistent with the dividends. It might be a little bit larger in the fourth quarter for sure. I think, again, as we look at kind of PMIERs, Doug, and credit and where it's going, we feel comfortable continuing to upstream cash from Guaranty to US Holdings. And as I said earlier, it has a little bit of friction getting it back to the group level.

我認為這與股息相當一致。第四季肯定會更大一些。我認為，再次考慮到 PMIER、Doug 以及信貸及其發展方向，我們感到可以放心繼續將 Guaranty 的現金上游資金注入 US Holdings。正如我之前所說，要把它重新納入團隊層面，還有些阻力。

And that's not the worst problem to have. And also, we have [range] the quota share reinsurance. That's one of the reasons we took it up to 50 earlier this year. That's another kind of backdoor way to get cash up to the holdco.

但這還不是最糟的問題。此外，我們還有[範圍]配額份額再保險。這也是我們今年早些時候將其提高到 50 的原因之一。這是另一種向控股公司輸送資金的後門方式。

And then thinking, obviously, you bought Title a little while ago. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the benefit of the great business that is MI versus looking to further diversify and have other avenues of growth?

然後你就會想，很顯然，你不久前買了 Title。您能否談談您是如何看待 MI 這家優秀企業的益處，以及您是否考慮進一步多元化發展並尋求其他成長途徑？

Yeah, I mean, I think right now, it's a good question. I think Title has performed pretty much in line with what we thought -- if we would have thought rates would be this high, to try to be honest with you. I think if rates go lower, we're very levered to rates given the lender focus of the business.

是的，我的意思是，我覺得現在問這個問題很好。坦白說，我認為 Title 的表現基本上符合我們的預期——如果我們當初預料到利率會這麼高的話。我認為，如果利率走低，考慮到我們業務的貸款方性質，我們將非常容易受到利率的影響。

We have an underwriter. It's really kind of in its still small stages, growing primarily in Texas and Florida in the bit of the Southeast. That's kind of the purchase angle of the business, but it's small. So the real lever is lenders and refinance. And we've continued to add lenders. We're working on developing a new system. We're still building the business out, per se, and we're fine with that. So it's kind of in corporate and other, Doug.

我們有承保人。它目前還處於起步階段，主要在東南部的德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州發展。這算是這家公司採購方面的業務，但規模很小。所以真正的槓桿是貸款人和再融資。我們一直在增加貸款方。我們正在開發一套新系統。我們目前仍在建立業務，對此我們並不介意。所以，它既涉及企業，也涉及其他方面，道格。

And think of that almost as like an incubator. So again, if it gets big enough, it will pop up as its own segment. If it stays small, it stays small. And that could happen. And clearly, Essent Re has some opportunities outside of mortgage. We haven't really done anything yet, but there's things that we look at. I would look at that as another, quote, incubator. We kind of call them call options. But for the time being, clearly, the focus and where the cash flow is coming is from the MI business.

你可以把它想像成一個孵化器。所以，如果它發展到足夠大的規模，它就會作為一個獨立的板塊出現。如果它保持小規模，那就保持小規模。這種情況有可能發生。顯然，Essent Re 在抵押貸款之外還有一些機會。我們目前還沒有採取任何行動，但有些事情我們正在考慮。我會把它看作是另一個，或者說，一個孵化器。我們通常稱它們為看漲期權。但就目前而言，很明顯，重點和現金流來源是 MI 業務。

And when we look at investment opportunities whether it's Title, other acquisitions that come to us, we still feel at this time, our stock is the best value, and we're kind of voting with our feet there. And I don't really expect it to change absent like some large movement in the stock. And then if there's a large movement in the stock, which it's -- it would be nice, per se, but not necessarily. If you're in the business of buying back shares and shrinking ownership, this isn't the worst place to be in.

當我們審視投資機會時，無論是 Title 公司，還是其他收購項目，我們仍然認為，目前我們的股票最有價值，我們也用實際行動證明了這一點。除非股價出現大幅波動，否則我並不認為這種情況會改變。如果股價出現大幅波動（而現在確實出現了波動）——這本身當然是好事，但也不一定。如果你從事股票回購和減少持股比例的業務，那麼這裡並不是最糟糕的地方。

If the stock were to move outside of our range, we would probably do like a special dividend. We'll continue to look for ways to get capital back to shareholders. But given just how good the MI business is today, we would need to -- again, there's going to be a good reason for us to do it. And I look at it, if you're looking at a way to kind of quantify it. And our book value per share today is right around $60. So it's a tad below $58-ish. My guess is it will finish the year around $60, Doug.

如果股價超出我們的預期範圍，我們可能會考慮派發特別股利。我們將繼續尋找方法，讓股東獲得資金回報。但鑑於如今 MI 業務的良好發展勢頭，我們需要——同樣，我們會有充分的理由這樣做。而我則在思考，如果你想找到一種量化它的方法的話。我們目前的每股帳面價值約為 60 美元。所以價格略低於 58 美元左右。道格，我估計它年底的價格會在 60 美元左右。

So if we look and say, hey, we're going to grow it, 10% 12% a year. which we've been doing, that book value per share over the next four or five years is going to be $85, $90, right? It's big picture, right? Just looking at the numbers. So as we look at an acquisition, it's going to have to either help us increase that book value per share target or achieve that book value per share target sooner all else being equal or making us a stronger company and things like that.

所以如果我們展望未來，並說，嘿，我們要讓它每年增長 10% 到 12%，而我們也一直在這樣做，那麼未來四五年內，每股賬面價值將達到 85 美元、90 美元，對吧？這是從大局著眼，對吧？只看數字而已。因此，當我們考慮收​​購時，它要么必須幫助我們提高每股帳面價值目標，要么必須在其他條件相同的情況下更快地實現每股帳面價值目標，或者使我們成為更強大的公司等等。

There's other factors in there. That's a pretty high bar. That's a pretty high bar. We kind of know this business well. And like what I've said, just in my response to Rick earlier, this is such a good business. We're a little bit spoiled and in terms of how good the business is, again, there's going to be some bumps along the road. There always are, but that's why you have capital, right? You have capital to withstand those bumps and reinsurance is another form of capital. We expect kind of those expected losses per se.

還有其他因素。這標準相當高。這標準相當高。我們對這個行業還算比較了解。就像我之前回覆瑞克時說的那樣，這真是一門好生意。我們有點被寵壞了，而且就業務發展而言，未來肯定會遇到一些坎坷。這種情況總是存在的，但這就是你擁有資金的原因，對吧？您有資金來應對這些衝擊，而再保險是另一種形式的資金。我們預計會出現類似預期的損失。

And then you have capital on reinsurance for unexpected losses will come, but that's what we're prepared for. We don't necessarily try to sit down and say, where is the market going, we try to prepare for every different avenue that the market potentially could go down. I mean, that just comes with experience. We've been doing this for quite a while. But that being said, so summing up the investment right now continues to be an asset. I don't expect that to change, absent something really special comes along.

然後，我們還有再保險資本來應對意外損失，但我們已經為此做好了準備。我們不一定要坐下來討論市場走向，而是努力為市場可能出現的每一種不同方向做好準備。我的意思是，這都是經驗累積的結果。我們做這件事已經有一段時間了。但即便如此，總而言之，目前這項投資仍是一項資產。除非出現真正特別的情況，否則我不認為這種情況會改變。

There are no additional questions at this time. So I will now turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把會議交還給管理階層，請他們作閉幕致詞。

Thanks, everyone, for their time and questions, and have a great weekend.

感謝大家抽空提問，祝大家週末愉快。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。