Essent Group Ltd (ESNT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Essent Group Limited first-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Phil Stefano, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫 Regina，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Essent Group Limited 第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資人關係部門的 Phil Stefano。請繼續。

Thank you, Regina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our call. Joining me today are Mark Casale, Chairman and CEO; and David Weinstock, Chief Financial Officer. Also on hand for the Q&A portion of the call is Chris Curran, President of Essent Guaranty.

謝謝你，里賈娜。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長馬克卡薩萊 (Mark Casale) 和財務長大衛溫斯托克 (David Weinstock)。Essent Guaranty 總裁 Chris Curran 也出席了這次電話會議的問答環節。

A press release, which contains Essent's financial results for the first quarter of 2025 was issued earlier today, and is available on our website at essengroup.com.

今天稍早發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含 Essent 2025 年第一季的財務業績，可在我們的網站 essengroup.com 上查閱。

Prior to getting started, I would like to remind participants that today's discussions are being recorded and will include the use of forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. They're subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results that differ materially.

在開始之前，我想提醒與會者，今天的討論將被記錄下來，並將包括前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於當前的預期、估計、預測和假設。它們受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。

For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements in today's press release, the risk factors included in our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 18 of 2025 and any other reports and registration statements filed with the SEC, which are also available on our website. Now let me turn the call over to Mark.

有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，請查看今天的新聞稿中有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言、我們於 2025 年 2 月 18 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表中包含的風險因素以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的任何其他報告和註冊聲明，這些聲明也可在我們的網站上找到。現在讓我把電話轉給馬克。

Thanks, Phil and good morning, everyone. Earlier today we released our first quarter of 2025 financial results which continue to benefit from the impact of higher interest rates on the persistency of our insured portfolio and investment yields. We believe that our buy, manage, and distribute operating model uniquely positions us to operate in a variety of economic environments to generate attractive returns for our shareholders.

謝謝，菲爾，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2025 年第一季的財務業績，該業績繼續受益於利率上升對我們保險投資組合和投資收益的持續性的影響。我們相信，我們的購買、管理和分銷運營模式使我們能夠在各種經濟環境中運營，為股東創造可觀的回報。

Our outlook over the long term remains constructive as we believe that favorable demographic trends, along with current affordability issues, are resulting in pent-up demand for housing. Even though we anticipate some headwinds to consumer spending and economic growth over the near term, given the high credit quality of our insured portfolio and the strength of our operating model, Essent is positioned to navigate this environment.

我們對長期前景仍然持建設性態度，因為我們相信有利的人口趨勢以及當前的負擔能力問題正在導致住房需求被壓抑。儘管我們預計短期內消費支出和經濟成長將面臨一些阻力，但鑑於我們承保組合的高信用品質和我們營運模式的強勁，Essent 有能力應對這種環境。

And now for our results. For the first quarter of 2025, we reported net income of $175 million compared to $182 million a year ago. On a diluted per-share basis, we earned $1.69 for the first quarter compared to $1.70 a year ago. On an annualized basis, our return on average equity was 12% in the quarter.

現在來看看我們的結果。2025 年第一季度，我們報告的淨收入為 1.75 億美元，而去年同期為 1.82 億美元。以攤薄每股收益計算，第一季我們的收益為 1.69 美元，而去年同期為 1.70 美元。以年率計算，本季我們的平均股本回報率為 12%。

On the mortgage insurance front, lenders continue to be challenged by lower originations due to the impacts of higher rates, affordability, and overall lack of supply. This in turn also impacts the amount of new insurance written that our industry generates. While our industry is competitive in this environment, systematic credit guardrails established by the GSEs continue to mitigate credit-box expansion. As such, we remain satisfied with the credit quality and union economics of our new business.

在抵押貸款保險方面，由於利率上升、負擔能力下降以及整體供應不足的影響，貸款機構繼續面臨貸款發放下降的挑戰。這反過來也影響了我們行業產生的新保險數量。儘管我們的行業在這種環境下具有競爭力，但政府支持企業建立的系統性信貸護欄繼續抑制信貸框的擴張。因此，我們對新業務的信用品質和工會經濟狀況仍然感到滿意。

As of March 31, our US mortgage insurance in force was $245 billion, a 3% increase versus a year ago. The credit quality of our insurance in force remains strong, with a weighted average FICO of 746 and a weighted average original LTV of 93%. Our 12 month persistency on March 31 was 86%, flat from last quarter, while half of our enforced portfolio has a no rate of 5% or lower.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的美國有效抵押貸款保險金額為 2,450 億美元，比去年同期成長 3%。我們有效保險的信用品質依然強勁，加權平均 FICO 為 746，加權平均原始 LTV 為 93%。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的 12 個月持續率為 86%，與上一季持平，而我們強制執行投資組合中有一半的無利率為 5% 或更低。

We continue to expect that the current level of mortgage rates will support elevated persistency in the near term. Our consolidated cash and investments as of March 31 were $6.4 billion and our new money yield in the first quarter remained over 5%.

我們仍然預計，目前的抵押貸款利率水準將在短期內支持更高的持續性。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的綜合現金和投資為 64 億美元，第一季的新資金收益率維持在 5% 以上。

The annualized investment yield for the first quarter is 3.8%, while new money rates have largely held stable over the past several quarters and remain a tailwind for investment income. We continue to operate from a position of strength with $5.7 billion in GAAP equity, excess to $1.5 billion in excess of loss reinsurance, and a PMIERs sufficiency ratio of 172%. With a trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $866 million, our franchise remains well positioned from an earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet perspective.

一季度年化投資報酬率為3.8%，新資金利率近幾季基本保持穩定，持續對投資收益起推動作用。我們繼續保持強勁營運勢頭，擁有 57 億美元的 GAAP 權益、超過 15 億美元的超額損失再保險以及 172% 的 PMIER 充足率。過去 12 個月的營業現金流為 8.66 億美元，從獲利、現金流和資產負債表的角度來看，我們的特許經營業務仍然處於有利地位。

Our capital strategy seeks to balance the conservative balance sheet, preserving optionality for strategic growth opportunities and optimizing shareholder returns over the long term. With that in mind, I am pleased to announce that our Board has approved a common dividend of $0.31 for the second quarter of 2025.

我們的資本策略力求平衡保守的資產負債表，保留策略成長機會的選擇權，並優化長期股東回報。考慮到這一點，我很高興地宣布，我們的董事會已批准 2025 年第二季的普通股息為 0.31 美元。

At the same time, we recognize that our excess capital position and stock valuation present us with an opportunity to be proactive in returning capital to shareholders. As previously discussed, we are valuation sensitive when it comes to buying back shares, believing this strategy will support our long-term goal of compounding book value per share growth. Year to date through April 30, we repurchased nearly 4 million shares for over $200 million. Now let me turn the call over to Dave.

同時，我們也意識到，我們的過剩資本狀況和股票估值為我們提供了主動向股東返還資本的機會。如前所述，在回購股票時，我們對估值很敏感，並相信這項策略將支持我們實現每股帳面價值複合成長的長期目標。截至 4 月 30 日，我們已回購近 400 萬股，價值超過 2 億美元。現在讓我把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Let me review our results for the quarter in a little more detail. For the first quarter, we earned $1.69 per diluted share compared to $1.58 last quarter and $1.70 in the first quarter a year ago.

謝謝，馬克。大家早安。讓我更詳細地回顧一下本季的業績。第一季度，我們的每股攤薄收益為 1.69 美元，而上一季為 1.58 美元，去年同期為 1.70 美元。

In connection with accounting guidance effective as of year-end 2024, public companies with a single reportable segment are required to disclose results by segment. We have one reportable segment, mortgage insurance, which aggregates our US mortgage insurance business and our GSA and other mortgage reinsurance business at our subsidiary ascent rate.

根據自 2024 年底起生效的會計指南，具有單一報告分部的上市公司必須按分部揭露業績。我們有一個可報告的部門，即抵押貸款保險，它以我們的子公司上升率匯總了我們的美國抵押貸款保險業務以及我們的 GSA 和其他抵押貸款再保險業務。

My comments today are going to focus primarily on the mortgage-insurance segment results. There's additional information on corporate and other results in the financial supplement in exhibit O.

我今天的評論主要集中在抵押貸款保險部門的業績上。附件 O 中的財務補充資料中提供了更多有關公司和其他業績的資訊。

Our US mortgage insurance portfolio ended the first quarter with insurance in force of $244.7 billion, an increase of $1 billion from December 31, and an increase of $6.2 billion or 2.6% compared to $238.5 billion in March 31, 2024.

我們的第一季末美國抵押貸款保險組合有效保險金額為 2,447 億美元，較 12 月 31 日增加 10 億美元，與 2024 年 3 月 31 日的 2,385 億美元相比增加 62 億美元，增幅為 2.6%。

Persistency at March 30, 2025 was 85.7% unchanged from the fourth quarter. Mortgage insurance net premium earned for the first quarter of 2025 was $234 million and included $15.5 million of premiums earned by S&E on our third party business.

截至 2025 年 3 月 30 日的持續率為 85.7%，與第四季相比沒有變化。2025 年第一季抵押貸款保險淨保費收入為 2.34 億美元，其中包括 S&E 在我們的第三方業務中賺取的 1,550 萬美元保費。

The average base premium rate for the US mortgage insurance portfolio for the first quarter was 41 basis points, consistent with last quarter. And the average net premium rate was 36 basis points for the first quarter of 2025, increasing 1 basis point from last quarter.

第一季美國抵押貸款保險組合的平均基本保費率為41個基點，與上一季持平。2025年第一季平均淨保費率為36個基點，較上一季增加1個基點。

Our mortgage-insurance provision for losses and loss adjustment expenses was $30.7 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to $37.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a reminder, our fourth-quarter provision included $8 million for defaults that we identified as related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

2025 年第一季度，我們的抵押貸款保險損失準備金和損失調整費用為 3,070 萬美元，而 2024 年第四季為 3,730 萬美元。提醒一下，我們第四季的撥備包括 800 萬美元的違約金，這些違約金我們認為與颶風海倫和米爾頓有關。

While we observed a decline in the number of hurricane-related defaults in the first quarter due to cure activity, we made no changes in the reserve for hurricane-related defaults, as this amount continues to be our best estimate of the ultimate lawsuits being incurred for claims associated with those defaults. On March 31, the default rate on the US mortgage insurance portfolio was 2.19%, down 8 basis points from 2.27% at December 30, 2024.

雖然我們觀察到由於補救活動而導致第一季與颶風相關的違約數量有所下降，但我們並未對與颶風相關的違約準備金做出任何改變，因為這一數額仍然是我們對與這些違約相關的索賠最終引發的訴訟的最佳估計。3月31日，美國抵押貸款保險組合的違約率為2.19%，較2024年12月30日的2.27%下降8個基點。

Mortgage insurance operating expenses in the first quarter were $43.6 million, and the expense ratio was 18.7% compared to $39.9 million and 17.5% in the fourth quarter.

第一季抵押貸款保險營運費用為 4,360 萬美元，費用率為 18.7%，而第四季為 3,990 萬美元，費用率為 17.5%。

For the full-year 2024, operating expenses for the mortgage-insurance segment totaled $160 million. We estimate that other underwriting and operating expenses for the mortgage-insurance segment will be between $160 million and $165 million for the full-year 2025.

2024 年全年，抵押貸款保險部門的營運費用總計 1.6 億美元。我們估計，2025 年全年抵押貸款保險部門的其他承保和營運費用將在 1.6 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間。

In April, we entered into two excessive loss transactions effective July 1 of each year with panels of highly rated reinsurers to cover our 2025 and 2026 new insurance written.

4 月份，我們與評級較高的再保險公司小組達成了兩項超額損失交易，自每年 7 月 1 日起生效，以涵蓋我們 2025 年和 2026 年的新簽發保險。

These transactions complement the two quota-share transactions closed in the first quarter, and we continue to be encouraged by the strong demand from reinsurers for taking mortgage-credit risk.

這些交易是對第一季完成的兩筆配額交易的補充，再保險公司對承擔抵押貸款信用風險的強勁需求繼續令我們感到鼓舞。

In addition, in April, we decided to increase the seating percentage of our affiliate quota share from 35% to 50% to further leverage our Bermuda platform. This increased session to S&E will be effective in the second quarter and will be retroactive to NIW starting from January 1, 2025.

此外，4月份，我們決定將聯盟公司配額份額的席位百分比從35％提高到50％，以進一步利用我們的百慕達平台。此次 S&E 延長期限將於第二季生效，並將自 2025 年 1 月 1 日起追溯至 NIW。

At March 31, Essent Guaranty's premier's efficiency ratio was strong at 172% with $1.5 billion in excess available assets. Consolidated that investment income increased $1.7 million or 3% to $58.2 million in the first quarter of 2025 compared to last quarter due primarily to a modest increase in overall portfolio yield.

截至 3 月 31 日，Essent Guaranty 的首要效率比率高達 172%，擁有 15 億美元的超額可用資產。2025 年第一季度，綜合投資收入與上一季相比增加了 170 萬美元（3%），達到 5,820 萬美元，主要是由於整體投資組合收益率小幅上升。

As Mark noted, our holding company liquidity remains strong, and includes $500 million of undrawn revolver capacity under our committed credit facility. On March 31, we had $500 million of senior unsecured notes outstanding with a debt to capital ratio of 8%.

正如馬克所指出的，我們的控股公司流動性依然強勁，包括我們承諾的信貸額度下 5 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度。截至 3 月 31 日，我們有 5 億美元的優先無擔保票據未償還，債務資本比率為 8%。

During the first quarter, Essent Guaranty paid a dividend of $65 million to its US holding company. Based on unassigned surplus on March 31, Essent Guaranty can pay additional ordinary dividends of $405 million in 2025. After end, Essent Guaranty statutory capital with $3.6 billion with a risk-to-cap ratio of 9.6 to 1. Note that statutory capital includes $2.5 billion of contingency reserves at March 31.

第一季度，Essent Guaranty 向其美國控股公司支付了 6,500 萬美元的股息。根據 3 月 31 日未分配盈餘，Essent Guaranty 可在 2025 年支付 4.05 億美元的額外普通股息。結束後，Essent Guaranty 法定資本為 36 億美元，創投比率為 9.6 比 1。請注意，法定資本包括 3 月 31 日的 25 億美元應急儲備金。

During the first quarter, Essent Reed paid a dividend of $100 million to Essent Group. Also in the quarter, Essent Group paid cash dividends totaling $31.7 million to shareholders, and we repurchased 2.8 million shares for $157 million. In April 2025, we repurchased 1.1 million shares for $61 million.

第一季度，Essent Reed向Essent Group支付了1億美元的股息。此外，在本季度，Essent Group 向股東支付了總計 3,170 萬美元的現金股息，我們以 1.57 億美元回購了 280 萬股股票。2025 年 4 月，我們以 6,100 萬美元回購了 110 萬股。

Now, let me turn the call back over to Mark.

現在，讓我把電話轉回給馬克。

Thanks, Dave. In closing, we are pleased with our first-quarter financial results as Essent continues to generate high-quality earnings while our balance sheet and liquidity remains strong. Our outlook for housing remains constructive over the long term, and we believe that Essent is well positioned to navigate the current environment.

謝謝，戴夫。最後，我們對第一季的財務表現感到滿意，因為 Essent 繼續創造高品質的收益，同時我們的資產負債表和流動性仍然強勁。從長遠來看，我們對房屋市場的前景仍然看好，我們相信 Essent 已準備好應對當前的環境。

Given the strength of our buy, manage, and distribute operating model, our strong earnings and cash flow continue to provide us with an opportunity to balance investing in our business and returning capital to shareholders. We believe this approach is in the best long-term interests of Essent and our stakeholders, while Essent continues to play an integral role in supporting affordable and sustainable home ownership. Now let's get to your questions, operator.

鑑於我們購買、管理和分銷營運模式的優勢，我們強勁的獲利和現金流繼續為我們提供機會，以平衡對業務的投資和向股東返還資本。我們相信，這種方法符合 Essent 和我們利益相關者的長期利益，同時 Essent 將繼續在支持可負擔和可持續的房屋所有權方面發揮不可或缺的作用。現在讓我們來回答您的問題，接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的里克·沙恩。

Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions this morning. Look, March, April have been unprecedented months in terms of volatility, in terms of some of the behaviors we've seen.

嘿夥計們，感謝你們今天早上回答我的問題。從我們所見的一些行為來看，三月和四月的波動性是前所未有的。

When you think about where we are in the affordability cycle for homeownership, particularly for first-time home buyers, do you think we are potentially reaching an inflection point?

當您思考我們處於房屋所有權負擔能力週期的哪個階段時，特別是對於首次購房者而言，您是否認為我們有可能達到轉折點？

Where things will start to come the way of the consumer a little bit more, or do you remain a little bit more cautious and then delving a little bit more deeply into that, are there certain geographies where you are particularly optimistic or particularly cautious, and how do you adjust for that within your rates within your rate cards?

哪些事情會開始更多地向消費者傾斜，或者您是否會保持更謹慎的態度，然後再深入研究一下，是否有某些地區讓您特別樂觀或特別謹慎，您如何在費率表中對此進行調整？

Yeah, hey Rick, good morning and thanks for the questions. I think the first one on affordability, I'm not sure where we are in the cycle, and remember just in context we've had this anomaly, right? We had the COVID anomaly with super low rates, and everyone just buying stuff: houses, boats, cars, bicycles.

是的，嘿，里克，早上好，謝謝你的提問。我認為第一個問題是關於負擔能力的，我不確定我們處於週期的哪個階段，請記住，在上下文中我們曾經遇到過這種異常現象，對嗎？我們遇到了 COVID 異常現象，利率極低，每個人都在購買東西：房子、船、汽車、自行車。

It drove up HPA 40% in some markets, 60% in others, and then boom. In the middle of 2022, rates shot up and, in a way, just froze people. They called it the golden handcuffs, people with 3% mortgage rates, and they stayed elevated. Rates went up, and so this has really resulted in affordability because incomes didn't really grow, and now you have higher home prices and higher rates. It really has created this second anomaly that we're still in.

它推動某些市場的 HPA 上漲 40%，其他市場的 HPA 上漲 60%，然後就出現了繁榮。2022 年中期，利率飆升，從某種程度上來說，凍結了人們的生活。他們稱之為“金手銬”，抵押貸款利率為 3%，並且一直保持在高位。利率上升了，這實際上導致了負擔能力的下降，因為收入實際上並沒有增長，而現在房價和利率都上漲了。它確實造成了我們至今仍處於的第二種異常現象。

Fortunately, for Essent, we're well positioned for this environment. We saw tailwinds in investment yields and we've seen unprecedented persistency, in addition to still, driving business and uniquely, Rick, the quality of borrower we're getting in this environment is actually quite good because of the affordability issues, only the best kind of qualify. I do think, and I said this before, it's when you think about our insurance in force, it's relatively flattish, which drives a lot of what I'll call free cash flow to the bottom line. So again, we're well positioned.

幸運的是，對於 Essent 來說，我們已經為這種環境做好了準備。我們看到了投資收益的順風，我們看到了前所未有的持久性，此外，仍然在推動業務發展，而且獨特的是，里克，我們在這種環境下獲得的借款人質量實際上相當不錯，因為負擔能力問題，只有最好的借款人才有資格。我確實認為，而且我之前也說過，當你想到我們有效的保險時，它相對平穩，這推動了我所說的自由現金流的大量流入底線。所以，我們又處於有利地位。

But this next cycle will really play out or end when you know incomes catch up, and I think when incomes catch up, I don't really see rates going anywhere. I could see pockets of HPA declining, which I think is relatively healthy, but the consumer really is going to have to catch up. And then, then you're going to have life events, right? You're going to have People getting married, more homeownership formation, having more children, death, divorce, all those sort of things that will unlock some supply.

但是，當你知道收入趕上來時，下一個週期才會真正結束，我認為當收入趕上來時，我看不到利率會有任何變化。我可以看到 HPA 的份額正在下降，我認為這是相對健康的，但消費者確實必須迎頭趕上。然後，你就會有人生大事發生，對嗎？人們將會結婚、更多的人擁有自己的房子、生更多的孩子、死亡、離婚，所有這些事情都會釋放一些供應。

But here's a great metric for where I think the market is a little bit stuck. The average age of a first-time homeowner is 38. That tells me there's a lot of pent up demand for housing, so growth in our portfolio will renew and longer term for Essent. And for the other mortgage insurers, we're going to grow the way housing grows in this country, and it's always grown. It doesn't always grow in a straight line. That's why we, when we say longer term, we're constructive, that we've been able to kind of wait this period out and continue to generate strong returns.

但我認為這是一個很好的指標，顯示市場有些停滯了。首次購屋者的平均年齡為38歲。這告訴我，住房需求被壓抑了很多，因此對於 Essent 來說，我們的投資組合將迎來新的成長，並且是長期成長。對於其他抵押貸款保險公司，我們將隨著這個國家的房屋成長而成長，而且它一直在成長。它並不總是沿直線生長。這就是為什麼當我們說長期時，我們是建設性的，我們能夠等待這個時期結束並繼續產生強勁的回報。

The only problem I have is I'm not sure when that's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen this year, but I think we're getting closer to it.

我唯一的問題是我不確定什麼時候會發生這種情況。我認為這不會在今年發生，但我認為我們正在接近它。

I think on your location standpoint, I would say we with our pricing model, and remember we have two parts to it. There's the credit engine part of it, that's an edge, and then we just have the ability to electronically deliver pricing that allows us to a kind of make a lot of numerous pricing changes. We've actually raised pricing in certain markets during the first part of the year, really trying to test pricing elasticity where we may have a larger share in certain markets. Generally we're more concentrated in areas where there's a lot more population growth if you look at our segment.

我認為從您的位置角度來看，我們會採用我們的定價模式，請記住它分為兩個部分。其中有信用引擎部分，這是一個優勢，然後我們就有能力以電子方式提供定價，這使我們能夠做出大量的定價變更。事實上，我們在今年上半年已經提高了某些市場的價格，真正試圖測試價格彈性，以便我們在某些市場中佔有更大的份額。如果你看一下我們的細分市場，你會發現我們通常更集中在人口成長較快的地區。

We tend to like places where people are moving to and jobs are moving to and so we're more, I would say we're a little bit more invested there. That being said, you're always trying to get more price in certain areas, and then other places you're backing off, so we look at it that way. And again, like I said in the earlier part, pockets of HPA decline.

我們傾向於選擇人們正在遷移、工作正在遷移的地方，因此，我想說，我們在那裡的投資更多。話雖如此，你總是試圖在某些地區獲得更高的價格，而在其他地方你卻在退縮，所以我們是這樣看待它的。再一次，就像我之前所說的那樣，HPA 的部分數量正在減少。

I do think longer term are healthy for the market.

我確實認為長期來看對市場來說是健康的。

Got it. Now, it is, it's been such an interesting cycle, and one of the things that we always talk about on our team is that not every cycle can be unprecedented.

知道了。現在，這是一個非常有趣的週期，我們團隊經常談論的事情之一是，並非每個週期都是史無前例的。

I'm hoping that eventually, we're going to be right on that. It's been sort of from unprecedented, to unprecedented, to unprecedented. It's almost exhausting.

我希望我們最終能夠做到這一點。這可以說是史無前例、史無前例、又史無前例。這幾乎讓人精疲力盡。

Thank you for your answers.

感謝您的回答。

You're welcome. Hang in there.

不客氣。堅持住。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Hey, thank you. Good morning, Mark, I'm just curious, just given all the uncertainty around macro and the headlines around tariffs, I'm just curious to think, to get -- how you're thinking about managing risk overall and like have you done anything on the pricing underwriting side and at what point will you do so to kind of adjust for that?

嘿，謝謝你。早安，馬克，我只是好奇，考慮到宏觀經濟和關稅方面的不確定性，我只是好奇地想了解——你是如何考慮整體管理風險的，你在定價承保方面做過什麼，在什麼時候你會這樣做來調整呢？

It's a good question, Terry. I would say we have -- like I said earlier, we've raised pricing in the first quarter in certain markets, but that was more micro-oriented, so to speak, around pricing, elasticity. I think on a macro standpoint; we're in a little bit of a wait-and-see with the impact of tariffs. So to give you some kind of background in terms of our pricing, we generally. Price through the cycle, right, which could mean good environments and bad environments.

這是個好問題，特里。我想說的是——就像我之前說的，我們在第一季提高了某些市場的價格，但那更多的是微觀導向，圍繞定價和彈性。我認為從宏觀角度來看，我們對關稅的影響仍持觀望態度。因此，為了向您提供一些有關我們定價的背景信息，我們通常會這樣做。價格經歷週期，對的，這可能意味著好的環境和壞的環境。

We don't particularly look and say, well, we think the next three months could be challenging. Therefore, we're going to change our pricing just like we don't look and say, well, the market's going to be great for the next three months, so let's lower our pricing. So you have to kind of think it through the cycle. I think there's going to need to be a catalyst an event, right? Tariffs could be an event.

我們不會特別注意並說，我們認為接下來的三個月可能會充滿挑戰。因此，我們將改變我們的定價，就像我們不會看然後說，好吧，未來三個月的市場將會很好，所以讓我們降低價格。所以你必須透過整個週期來思考這個問題。我認為需要一個催化劑或事件，對嗎？關稅可能是一個事件。

COVID was an event. And when COVID was an event, we could see that the economy was going to slow considerably and that our pricing through this cycle was going to have to change. And we, along with all the mortgage insurers, were able to change our pricing very quickly. Again, another advantage, for the engine -- but right now we're not seeing it and we're going to have to wait to see how it plays out, right? I mean, there's obviously a lot of puts and takes, but right now there's no real changes on the pricing front.

COVID 是一個事件。當 COVID 事件發生時，我們可以看到經濟將大幅放緩，並且我們在此週期內的定價將不得不改變。我們和所有抵押貸款保險公司都能夠非常迅速地改變我們的定價。再次，對於引擎來說，這是另一個優勢——但現在我們還沒有看到它，我們必須等待，看看它如何發揮作用，對嗎？我的意思是，顯然有很多的利弊，但目前定價方面沒有真正的變化。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just more broadly speaking, how are you thinking about credit loss expectations? I think you pointed toward a 2% to 3% default rate as still being within expectations last quarter. Is that still the case?

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼從更廣泛的角度來看，您如何看待信用損失預期？我認為您指出的上個季度 2% 至 3% 的違約率仍在預期之內。現在還是這樣嗎？

Yeah, very much so, right? I mean, I think we're on the lower end of that right now, and you know we may not hit 3% depending on where defaults come into the back half of the year. They tend to increase a little bit more in the back half of the year, and Terry, it's a little bit of just math, right? I mean roughly 800,000 loans and close to 18,000 defaults. You can kind of do the math and see what the percentage is. I would look two things to note there one. Big picture, we really are, we own that first lost piece.

是的，非常喜歡，對吧？我的意思是，我認為我們現在處於這個水平的低端，而且你知道，根據今年下半年違約的情況，我們可能不會達到 3%。它們往往會在下半年增加一點，特里，這只是一點數學問題，對吧？我的意思是大約有 80 萬筆貸款和近 18,000 筆違約貸款。您可以進行計算並看看百分比是多少。我想指出兩件事。從整體來看，我們確實擁有那第一塊遺失的碎片。

We hedge out the mess and we kind of reattach at the cat, so we don't get too, kind of, upset or fluxed around this kind of between 2% and 3%. And second, we provide their provision when they miss two payments but depending on the vintage and the build in of HPA, they may not necessarily result in a claim.

我們會消除混亂，然後重新連接貓，這樣我們就不會太過沮喪或對 2% 到 3% 之間的波動感到困惑。其次，當他們錯過兩次付款時，我們會為他們提供準備金，但根據付款的年份和 HPA 的建立，他們不一定會提出索賠。

I mean we provide for that because that's our expectations within our model. But as you've seen in the past, people, the severity or they end up selling the house and we don't pay claims. So I wouldn't necessarily jump to a default rate, necessarily leading to cash out the door for us. That's really all it comes down to is that we write a check and pay a claim and to date we haven't really done much of that.

我的意思是我們提供這一點，因為這是我們模型中的期望。但正如您過去所見，人們，由於事故嚴重程度，他們最終賣掉了房子，而我們卻不支付索賠。因此，我不一定會跳到違約率，這必然會導致我們失去現金。事實上，我們只需要開一張支票並支付索賠，但到目前為止，我們還沒有做太多這樣的事。

Yeah, but it makes sense. Thank you.

是的，但這很有道理。謝謝。

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Yes, good morning. In terms of buybacks, maybe I missed this, but how much of the buybacks occurred in the first quarter versus April?

是的，早安。就回購而言，也許我錯過了這一點，但與 4 月相比，第一季的回購量有多少？

Hey Beau, this save one stock. $157 million of the buybacks were in the first quarter, and then we purchased about 1 million shares for -- we purchased 1.1 million shares for $61 million so it's 2.8 million shares for $157 million in the first quarter and 1.1 million shares for $61 million in April.

嘿，Beau，這拯救了一隻股票。第一季回購了 1.57 億美元，然後我們以 6,100 萬美元的價格購買了約 100 萬股——因此，第一季我們以 1.57 億美元的價格購買了 280 萬股，4 月份我們以 6,100 萬美元的價格購買了 110 萬股。

Okay, great, thanks a lot. And then just, with the comments you made about the new 50% feeding to S&E in terms of the tax rate, so I assume the tax rate on the incremental piece goes down over the next few years. And then can you just remind us in 2030, does everything just bounce back to the to the domestic rate or is there some sort of phase in at that point as well?

好的，太好了，非常感謝。然後，根據您對新的 50% 稅率提供給 S&E 的評論，我認為增量部分的稅率在未來幾年會下降。然後您能否提醒我們，到 2030 年，一切是否都會恢復到國內水平，還是那時也會有某種階段？

Yeah, no Bose, you're right that the incremental will be taxed, we currently are, as we have talked about in prior calls, we have this limited international presence exemption where we are not paying taxes in Bermuda until 2030, but then once that exemption expires and beginning in 2030, we would expect to pay the 15% tax on earnings in Bermuda.

是的，不，Bose，您說得對，增量部分需要徵稅，目前我們確實需要徵稅，正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，我們有有限的國際存在豁免，即在 2030 年之前我們不在百慕大納稅，但是一旦該豁免到期並從 2030 年開始，我們預計將在百慕大收入繳納 15% 的收入稅。

And the other thing to note those just on the change in the affiliate is a little bit of it makes it more efficient. To move cash from guaranteed to the HoldCo, given that the HoldCo sits in Bermuda. So that was another part of the thinking. It wasn't necessarily to drive a lower tax rate. It could be a little bit lower, but really the efficiency of cash and capital management was a driver there.

另外要注意的是，附屬機構的這些變化只是一點點，使其變得更有效率。將現金從擔保公司轉移到 HoldCo，因為 HoldCo 位於百慕達。這就是思考的另一部分。這不一定是為了降低稅率。實際數字可能會略低一些，但現金和資本管理的效率確實是推動因素之一。

And just to add on what Mark said, because we're talking about really just the incremental piece on the current year's NIW, it's not going to really have any dramatic impact on this year's effective tax rate.

另外補充馬克所說的，因為我們實際上談論的只是本年度 NIW 的增量部分，所以它不會對今年的有效稅率產生任何重大影響。

Yeah, makes sense. So, okay, great, thanks a lot.

是的，有道理。那麼，好的，太好了，非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to start actually going back to comment on pricing and just unit economics in general. I think Mark, you mentioned you're so happy with new unit Economics and NIW, but they just like, take a step back, big picture, how have unit economics on new business changed and call it the last two or three years?

感謝您回答我的問題。想要真正開始回顧定價和單位經濟學的整體評論。我認為馬克，你提到你對新單位經濟學和 NIW 非常滿意，但他們只是退一步，從大局來看，新業務的單位經濟學在過去兩三年裡發生了怎樣的變化？

Obviously, interest rates are up. Sounds like you've done some micro movements around pricing, but overall the gross premium rate has been in this 40%, 41% range for 10 quarters. Just trying to think about how unit economics have changed, if at all, in the last two, three years between interest rates and your credit expectations or your view on forward credit. Thanks.

顯然，利率上升了。聽起來你們在定價方面做了一些微小的調整，但總體而言，10 個季度以來毛保費率一直保持在 40% 至 41% 的範圍內。只是想想在過去的兩三年裡，利率和你的信用預期或你對遠期信用的看法之間單位經濟狀況發生了怎樣的變化（如果有的話）。謝謝。

Yeah, it's a good question. I would say pricing in general have been -- the unit economics have been pretty steady. I would say they've they probably increased in the back half of '22 when there was a movement, I think we raised pricing in our engines across different MSAs, 12-plus times in '22, and you know -- so you don't necessarily see it on the yield on the book as it moves slower, but I would say in the engine itself, we probably raised pricing you know 30%-ish, if not more. So that you know so the overall pricing on NIW increased, pretty significantly. And again, there's a little bit more risk right because you had higher LTVs and higher GTIs on some of that '22 business given some of the affordability issues.

是的，這是個好問題。我想說的是，整體定價——單位經濟效益一直相當穩定。我想說的是，它們可能在 2022 年下半年有所增加，當時出現了一些動向，我認為我們在 2022 年對不同 MSA 的引擎提高了價格，超過 12 次，你知道 - 所以你不一定會在賬面收益率上看到它，因為它移動得更慢，但我想說在引擎本身中，我們可能將價格提高了 30% 左右，甚至更多。所以你知道 NIW 的總體價格上漲了相當多。而且，考慮到一些負擔能力問題，由於 22 年的部分業務的 LTV 和 GTI 較高，因此風險會更大一些。

But I would say in general the unit economics have been strongly kind of target that 12- to 14-ish range, and I would say that's probably on the high end of the range from here and I think that's it's important for investors to think through that.

但我想說，總體而言，單位經濟效益的目標範圍是 12 到 14 左右，我想說，這可能是該範圍的高端，我認為投資者仔細考慮這一點很重要。

There's a difference between -- because if you write good unit economics, that eventually will show up in your P&L, and conversely, if you write poor unit economics, that'll show up. But for investors at Essent, it's important to differentiate between the unit economics that we're writing and kind of the core ROE that's on the balance sheet.

這兩者之間是有區別的——因為如果你寫出了好的單位經濟學，它最終會在你的損益表中體現出來，相反，如果你寫出了差的單位經濟學，它也會體現出來。但對於 Essent 的投資人來說，區分我們所寫的單位經濟學和資產負債表上的核心 ROE 非常重要。

The ROE and the balance sheet -- for the GAAP ROE, there's drivers to that. It's, equity and excess capital and certain things. You almost want to say what's the -- you want to create what's the difference between the unit economics and the ROE on the balance sheet. Of course, the ROE that you print in the gap is the real ROE, but you know, we're -- there's some optionality for us in retaining that capital, and it's a very powerful optionality and yes, again take a context from a longer term investment, not quarter to quarter. We operate in a cat business.

ROE 和資產負債表 - 對於 GAAP ROE 來說，有其驅動因素。它是股權、過剩資本和某些東西。你幾乎想說什麼——你想創造資產負債表上的單位經濟學和 ROE 之間的區別是什麼。當然，您在缺口處打印的 ROE 是真正的 ROE，但您知道，我們在保留該資本方面有一些選擇權，而且這是一種非常強大的選擇權，是的，再次從長期投資的角度來考慮，而不是逐季度來看。我們經營貓生意。

Our catastrophe happens to be a severe economic recession. We do a lot of things. We manage that expected loss very well to the extent we can. We hedge out a lot of the mess, but we could re-attach, and that's why we run all these different stresses, and we as just as a management team. And you saw we bought back -- I would say we bought back more shares in the last four months than we have in the history of Essent. And part of that was we just -- were valuation sensitive. We saw an opportunity. We think the market kind of overreacts to certain things, and that's fine. Having capital allows us to kind of lean in a little bit when we saw some value. And again, right in unit economics at 12% to 14%.

我們的災難恰好是嚴重的經濟衰退。我們做了很多事。我們盡力很好地管理了預期的損失。我們對沖了很多混亂局面，但我們可以重新連接，這就是為什麼我們要承受所有這些不同的壓力，我們只是一個管理團隊。你們也看到了，我們回購了——我想說，我們在過去四個月裡回購的股票比 Essent 歷史上回購的還要多。其中一部分原因是我們對估值很敏感。我們看到了機會。我們認為市場對某些事情反應過度，這很正常。當我們看到一些價值時，擁有資本讓我們能夠稍微傾斜一下。再次強調，單位經濟效益達到了 12% 至 14%。

You know when your stocks trading at bookish, or even below book, it was a pretty easy decision. But again, longer term it's important we like the optionality of capital because I think it gives us both opportunities defensive here right, if something bad happens and I was on a call with all of our investors in February ‘20 when people were questioning our growth and then a month later, everyone's wondering if we're going to run out of capital. So -- I've seen the movie before. I've managed the mortgage insurer during the great financial crisis. I've been around through the Subprime crisis in the late 90s. I have a lot of scars, and I've seen a lot of this. So I have a longer term perspective with it, and I just believe capital having that in times of stress will allow us -- it'll be a big advantage for us and we'll be able to take advantage of an opportunity versus being defensive. And if that doesn't ever happen, okay, that's not the worst thing.

您知道，當您的股票交易價格達到帳面價值甚至低於帳面價值時，這是一個非常容易的決定。但從長遠來看，重要的是我們喜歡資本的可選性，因為我認為這為我們雙方提供了防禦機會，如果發生不好的事情，我在 20 年 2 月與我們所有的投資者通了電話，當時人們都在質疑我們的增長，然後一個月後，每個人都在想我們是否會耗盡資金。所以——我以前看過這部電影。我在金融危機期間管理過抵押貸款保險公司。我經歷過 90 年代末期的次貸危機。我身上有很多傷疤，我也看過很多這樣的事。因此，我對此有一個更長遠的眼光，我相信在壓力時期擁有資本將使我們——這對我們來說是一個很大的優勢，我們將能夠利用機會而不是採取防禦措施。如果這件事沒有發生，那也不是最糟糕的事。

And then, conversely, there's strategic opportunities on the growth side. And again, you haven't heard me say this in a while, but with six mortgage insurers and two large mortgage companies consolidating in a slow market, you guys can kind of think through that consolidation isn't the worst answer for investors, right? If you're thinking of uses of excess capital putting two large mortgage insurers together is not the worst answer for investors.

相反，在成長方面存在戰略機會。再說一次，你們已經有一段時間沒有聽我這麼說了，但是隨著六家抵押貸款保險公司和兩家大型抵押貸款公司在低迷的市場中進行合併，你們可以想一想，合併對投資者來說並不是最糟糕的答案，對嗎？如果您正在考慮過剩資本的用途，那麼將兩家大型抵押貸款保險公司合併並不是對投資者來說最糟糕的答案。

So we kind of think through a lot of that optionality, and again I know you asked a pricing question, but that's -- so when you see what's the gaps like geez, Mark, you guys have 14% union economics and you're printing 12. What's the difference? It's that optionality of holding the capital.

因此，我們對很多可選性進行了思考，而且我知道您再次詢問了定價問題，但是那是 - 因此，當您看到差距時，例如，天哪，馬克，你們的工會經濟學為 14%，而您卻印刷了 12。有什麼區別？這就是持有資本的選擇性。

Right, except that makes sense. You're talking about a capital allocation. I did want to touch on the title business?

沒錯，但這是有道理的。您正在談論資本配置。我確實想談談標題業務？

You owned it for a little bit now. Any changes on your view of the opportunity there, give us an update on what just what's going on with that business, and how you're thinking about it here as interest rates stay higher for longer? Thank you.

現在你已經擁有它一點點了。您對那裡的機會的看法有什麼改變嗎？請告訴我們該業務的最新進展，以及在利率長期維持在高位的情況下您對此有何看法？謝謝。

Yeah, it's interesting, right? I think when you take a step back at Essent, the issue we have is we're in this pause for growth, and am I? We're very well positioned for it. Title is a transaction business.

是啊，很有趣，對吧？我認為，當你回顧 Essent 時，我們面臨的問題是，我們正處於成長暫停階段，我是嗎？我們已做好充分準備。產權是交易業務。

It's one of the reasons we're able to purchase it at such a good price, right? It was -- we did it when rates were already up and you could see on the horizon that it was going to be pretty slow.

這是我們能夠以如此優惠的價格購買它的原因之一，對嗎？是的——我們在利率已經上升的時候就這麼做了，而且你可以看到它的速度會相當緩慢。

So I don't want to say it's relatively expected. Again, when we think about the business longer term, we do believe it's going to. For a lot like S&E, which is supplemental earnings. The difference between S&E and Tidal is there's really no capital against Tidal, so it's relatively ROE accretive. That being said, we had a lot to do in terms of bringing the unit into Essent.

所以我不想說這是相對意料之中的事。再說了，當我們從長遠角度考慮業務時，我們確實相信它會實現。對於許多像 S&E 這樣的公司來說，這是一種補充收入。S&E 和 Tidal 之間的差異在於，S&E 實際上沒有針對 Tidal 的資本，因此其 ROE 相對而言是遞增的。話雖如此，我們在將單位帶入 Essent 方面還有很多工作要做。

I believe now, we're in a good position. We have a good management team. We have a strong leader, which we didn't have before, and I think we're relatively positioned and we want to be positioned so when rates come down, and that means you know activating more lenders, a lot of things that we did on the MI side and quite frankly we have work to do.

我相信現在我們處於有利地位。我們擁有一支優秀的管理團隊。我們擁有一位強有力的領導者，這是我們以前沒有的，我認為我們處於相對有利的位置，我們希望在利率下降時處於有利位置，這意味著激活更多的貸款人，我們在 MI 方面做了很多事情，坦率地說，我們還有很多工作要做。

We continue to work to do to sign up lenders and to continue to sign up agents, but I would say with the -- title again that building businesses takes time and I think I look at this more almost like an investor, and I feel like we're doing the right things in title his time.

我們將繼續努力與貸款機構簽約，並繼續與代理商簽約，但我想再次強調，建立企業需要時間，我認為我更像是一個投資者來看待這個問題，我覺得我們正在做正確的事情。

And then in terms of just the management team here, and this is for investors, I don't, I have not spent much time on Tidal probably in the past six to nine months. It's really been that team is in place and I think that's why I have some comfort in how they're going to perform.

就這裡的管理團隊而言，這是針對投資者的，我大概在過去六到九個月裡沒有在 Tidal 上花太多時間。這支球隊確實已經到位，我想這就是為什麼我對他們的表現感到放心。

Understood. Thank you for taking my question.

明白了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Jeffrey Dunn, Dowing and Partners.

傑弗裡·鄧恩（Jeffrey Dunn），道因和合夥人。

Thanks. Good morning. Given what you mentioned about the efficiency of the higher C to Bermuda, can you provide any guidance as to how we think about dividend flows from the underwriting companies up to the whole? Is this something where, I mean, you've been regular with the guaranteed dividends? Is that something where that probably drops below 50% on a quarterly cadence and we see more recurring higher dividends out the best free?

謝謝。早安.鑑於您提到的有關百慕達更高 C 的效率，您能否就我們如何看待從承銷公司到整體的股息流動提供任何指導？我的意思是，您是否一直定期獲得保證股利？這是否意味著每季的股息率可能會降至 50% 以下，並且我們會看到更多經常性的更高股息？

Anything you can provide us to give us a little framework around that?

您能為我們提供一些關於此問題的框架嗎？

Hey, Jeff, it's Dave Weinstock. Yeah, I don't know that I would think about the tradeoffs between necessarily Essent Guaranty and Essent [Ri]. I think we look at both entities and we try to think about the capital positions for both and the needs of the holding companies. So I think we'll continue to see dividends from both entities.

嘿，傑夫，我是戴夫溫斯托克。是的，我不知道我是否會考慮 Essent Guaranty 和 Essent 之間的權衡[日]。我認為我們會審視這兩個實體，並嘗試考慮它們的資本狀況以及控股公司的需求。因此我認為我們將繼續看到來自這兩個實體的紅利。

This year, subject to obviously what happens in the environment, right? So you know right now with where credit is and things like that, you can see, the continued kind of pattern that we've, you can see a little bit of what we did in the first quarter, playing out subject to, the year playing out based on our expectations and credit kind of staying relatively stable.

今年，顯然要取決於環境狀況，對嗎？所以，您現在知道信貸狀況和諸如此類的事情，您可以看到，我們延續了這種模式，您可以看到我們在第一季所做的一些事情，這些事情是根據我們的預期進行的，而今年的信貸情況則保持相對穩定。

Yeah. and I think Jeff, the way to look at it is we're going to continue to maximize the dividends out of both entities, right? I think you can see whatever ordinary dividends we can get out of guaranty we're getting at and guaranty, we're kind of pushing as much to HoldCo as we can. The difference is when it goes to US holdings, we have to run it through different entities from a tax rate to get it to the group. So think of it the more we can just do a -- the reinsurance, it just gets it right to [ree] and then that it's a little bit more frictionless getting it to the group. So I don't know how you can model it much differently. I think you'll see it a little bit overtime. It's a little bit of -- again, as you get to be a larger company and some of these things, a little bit of sweeping out the corners and trying to be more efficient that way, but it's really not going to change.

是的。我認為傑夫，看待這個問題的方式是我們將繼續最大化兩個實體的股息，對嗎？我想你可以看到，無論我們從擔保中獲得什麼普通股息，我們都在盡可能地向 HoldCo 推銷擔保。不同之處在於，當它進入美國控股公司時，我們必須透過不同的實體以不同的稅率將其轉入集團。所以想想看，我們越能做——再保險，它就越能正確地送到[ree]手中，然後就越能無阻礙地將其送到集團手中。所以我不知道如何以不同的方式建模。我想隨著時間的推移，你會看到這一點。這有點像——再說一次，當你成為一家更大的公司時，你會做一些這樣的事情，清理一些角落，試圖通過這種方式提高效率，但這真的不會改變。

The bigger decision is we going to do a special dividend at a guaranty, and that's really the only other way to get capital. At this point, it's not really in the cards, but it's certainly a lever that we could pull it if we had the opportunity. We would really need the opportunity to put that capital to work to do that.

更大的決定是我們要以擔保的方式發放特別股息，這實際上是獲取資本的唯一其他方式。目前，這還不是真的有可能，但如果有機會，我們絕對可以採取這項措施。我們確實需要機會利用這些資本來實現這一目標。

Alright, and I don't want to try to take it too literally, but if you're maximizing dividends, does that mean you're aiming to take another $405 million out of guaranty this year?

好吧，我不想太過於字面化，但如果您要最大化股息，這是否意味著您今年打算再從擔保中拿出 4.05 億美元？

Yeah, you know, I -- with what we have left, there are some --

是的，你知道，我——就我們剩下的，有一些--

Assuming credit stays relatively benign, right?

假設信貸保持相對良性，對嗎？

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable way to look at it, that to Mark's comment, we would think over the balance of the year with credit staying benign that we would try to maximize that, yeah.

是的，我認為這是一種合理的看法，對於馬克的評論，我們會考慮在今年的餘額中保持信貸良性，我們會嘗試最大化這一點，是的。

Okay thanks.

好的，謝謝。

That will conclude our question and answer session. I'll turn the call back over to management for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我會將電話轉回給管理層，以便他們發表任何結束語。

Thanks everyone for participating today, and have a great weekend.

感謝大家今天的參與，祝大家週末愉快。

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。