Energy Recovery Inc (ERII) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Energy Recovery Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. At this time, brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, James Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, James. You may begin.

您好，歡迎參加能源回收第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。此時，簡短的問答環節將在正式介紹之後進行。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁 James Siccardi。謝謝你，詹姆斯。你可以開始了。

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Energy Recovery's 2022 Full Year and Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jim Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations at Energy Recovery, and I'm here today with our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao; and our Chief Financial Officer, Joshua Ballard. 

大家好，歡迎來到 Energy Recovery 的 2022 年全年和第四季度收益電話會議。我叫 Jim Siccardi，是 Energy Recovery 的投資者關係副總裁，今天我和我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Bob Mao 一起來到這裡；以及我們的首席財務官 Joshua Ballard。

During today's call, we may make projections and other forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. These statements may discuss our business, economic and market outlook, growth expectations, new products and their performance, cost structure and business strategy. 

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中包含的安全港條款，就未來事件或公司未來的財務業績做出預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些陳述可能會討論我們的業務、經濟和市場前景、增長預期、新產品及其性能、成本結構和業務戰略。

Forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us and on management's beliefs, assumptions, estimates or projections. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performances and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to documents the company files from time to time with the SEC, specifically the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. These documents identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. 

前瞻性陳述基於我們目前可獲得的信息以及管理層的信念、假設、估計或預測。前瞻性陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並受某些風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響。我們建議您參考公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，特別是公司的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。這些文件確定了可能導致實際結果與我們的預測或前瞻性陳述中包含的結果大不相同的重要因素。

All statements made during this call are made only as of today, February 22, 2023, and the company expressly disclaims any intent or obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances unless otherwise required by law. At this point, I will turn the call over to our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao.

本次電話會議期間作出的所有聲明僅截至今天，即 2023 年 2 月 22 日，公司明確否認有任何意圖或義務更新本次電話會議期間作出的任何前瞻性聲明以反映後續事件或情況，除非法律另有要求。在這一點上，我將把電話轉交給我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Bob Mao。

Thank you, Jim, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We had one of the best years in Energy Recovery's history in 2022. Let's recap for a moment, 21% organic top line growth while winning 100% of the mega projects tendered and awarded in 2022. Industrial wastewater exceeded guidelines and almost quadrupled 2021 revenue. We generated some of the best profit metrics in Energy Recovery's history. 

謝謝你，吉姆，也謝謝大家加入我們。 2022 年是 Energy Recovery 歷史上最好的年份之一。讓我們回顧一下，21% 的有機收入增長，同時贏得了 2022 年招標和授予的大型項目的 100%。工業廢水超出了指導方針，2021 年收入幾乎翻了兩番。我們產生了 Energy Recovery 歷史上一些最好的利潤指標。

Gross margin of 69.6% exceeded 2021 full year by 100 basis points. OpEx as a percentage of revenue when adjusted for onetime costs was 48%, its lowest level in 14 years. During the past 3 years, this adjusted OpEx has grown only 8% despite revenue growing 73% in the same period. In our adjusted EBITDA exceeded $30 million for the first time and increased earnings per share by 75%. 

毛利率為 69.6%，比 2021 年全年高出 100 個基點。經一次性成本調整後，運營支出佔收入的百分比為 48%，為 14 年來的最低水平。在過去 3 年中，儘管同期收入增長了 73%，但調整後的運營支出僅增長了 8%。在我們調整後的 EBITDA 中，首次超過 3000 萬美元，每股收益增加了 75%。

We also position each of our business for future growth. We launched the Q400 for seawater desalination, a low pressure PX for brackish and wastewater applications, along with new industrial wastewater products. We commissioned our first PX G1300s in Europe and in the U.S. and have generated a field performance that has surprised even our partners. 

我們還為未來的增長定位我們的每項業務。我們推出了用於海水淡化的 Q400、一種用於苦鹹水和廢水應用的低壓 PX，以及新的工業廢水產品。我們在歐洲和美國調試了我們的第一台 PX G1300，並產生了令我們的合作夥伴感到驚訝的現場性能。

In short, I couldn't be more pleased with our progress in 2022. As we all look to 2023, there remains macroeconomic uncertainty, and this is nothing in particular to energy recovery. We will have to navigate these short-term uncertainties together in the coming months, and we will continue to keep you informed. But what I will say is that here at the beginning of 2023, we are cautiously optimistic about the current year, seeing solid single-digit revenue growth and remain bullish on our long-term prospects. 

簡而言之，我對我們在 2022 年取得的進展感到非常滿意。展望 2023 年，宏觀經濟仍然存在不確定性，這對能源回收來說並不特別。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將不得不共同應對這些短期的不確定性，我們將繼續讓您了解最新情況。但我要說的是，在 2023 年初，我們對今年持謹慎樂觀態度，看到穩健的個位數收入增長，並對我們的長期前景保持樂觀。

As usual, I'll start with our water business, where we are actively investing to both strengthen our position in the desalination market as well as to seek our new avenues of growth. We know we cannot sit still and must continue to innovate and grow in new ways, despite our commanding position in the market. Last quarter, we announced the new Q400, our most efficient and highest capacity PX available today. 

像往常一樣，我將從我們的水業務開始，我們正在積極投資以加強我們在海水淡化市場的地位以及尋求新的增長途徑。我們知道我們不能坐以待斃，必須繼續創新和以新的方式發展，儘管我們在市場上處於領先地位。上個季度，我們發布了新的 Q400，這是我們目前最高效、容量最大的 PX。

We have found strong customer interest in our new high-efficiency PX. The first of these orders will begin to ship in the second half of this year, and we expect the Q400 will make up a material portion of our mega project sales by 2024. In addition, we launched 2 low pressure PX at varying flow rates as we seek to unlock portions of the brackish water with our PX. Brackish is very common in the United States and Europe, but has remained out of the reach of the PX until now. 

我們發現客戶對我們的新型高效 PX 很感興趣。這些訂單中的第一批將於今年下半年開始發貨，我們預計到 2024 年 Q400 將占我們大型項目銷售額的重要部分。此外，我們推出了 2 種不同流量的低壓 PX，我們試圖用我們的 PX 解鎖部分苦鹹水。微鹹味在美國和歐洲很常見，但直到現在 PX 仍無法觸及。

We believe we can potentially capture material incremental revenue from this market as we seek to achieve our $230 million to $270 million target in total water revenue by 2026. We will also continue to invest in core engineering research in 2023. This is not an easy task when we are already producing a product with efficiencies near the limits of physics. However, we must think about how to further evolve the PX to expand our opportunity set in desalination, industrial wastewater and water reuse in the coming years. 

我們相信，隨著我們尋求到 2026 年實現 2.3 億至 2.7 億美元的總水收入目標，我們有可能從這個市場獲得實質性的增量收入。我們還將在 2023 年繼續投資於核心工程研究。這不是一件容易的事當我們已經在生產效率接近物理極限的產品時。然而，我們必須考慮如何進一步發展 PX，以在未來幾年擴大我們在海水淡化、工業廢水和水回用方面的機會。

Now let's turn to wastewater, where we have had a few notable developments. We generated nearly $4 million of wastewater revenue in 2022. Nearly 30% over our target for the year. Importantly, we have now increased our gross margin to one much more akin to our desalination business. The Ultra PX continued to prove its value to customers in the field. The recent introduction of our low-pressure product line also expands our reach into wastewater. 

現在讓我們轉向廢水，我們在這方面取得了一些顯著的進展。我們在 2022 年產生了近 400 萬美元的廢水收入。比我們當年的目標高出近 30%。重要的是，我們現在已經將毛利率提高到與我們的海水淡化業務更接近的水平。 Ultra PX 繼續向該領域的客戶證明其價值。我們最近推出的低壓產品線也擴大了我們在廢水領域的影響力。

We're now positioned to actively address some of the largest municipal wastewater projects in the world, including initial projects in the Middle East, on the basis of this new line. Municipal wastewater in particular, potable reuse is a natural extension of our water business. Many regions are beginning to turn to potable reuse to help address their growing water shortages, including the Middle East and here in the United States. 

我們現在準備好在這條新生產線的基礎上積極處理世界上一些最大的市政污水處理項目，包括中東的初始項目。尤其是市政廢水，飲用水再利用是我們水務業務的自然延伸。許多地區開始轉向飲用水再利用，以幫助解決日益嚴重的水資源短缺問題，包括中東和美國這裡。

As we learn more about this potential market, we'll keep you updated. Overall, wastewater has already generated a clear profit and paying for itself. This year, we're adding to our sales team in China and India, while also continued investments to improve and expand our line of products. Wastewater is a clear example of how we can successfully apply our existing PX technology swiftly to new and adjacent industries with minimum investment. 

隨著我們更多地了解這個潛在市場，我們會及時通知您。總的來說，廢水已經產生了明顯的利潤並收回了成本。今年，我們增加了在中國和印度的銷售團隊，同時還繼續投資以改進和擴大我們的產品線。廢水是我們如何以最少的投資成功地將現有的 PX 技術迅速應用於新的和鄰近的行業的一個明顯例子。

Now let's turn to our CO2 business. We have now shipped PX1300 to 6 separate OEMs and are still shipping to a service. During our third quarter call, we spoke about the sale of multiple PXs to PSGs to an industrial refrigeration manufacturer in Europe. This manufacturer pure technique is a leading refrigerant component and service provider for the Benelux region of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. 

現在讓我們談談我們的二氧化碳業務。我們現在已經將 PX1300 運送到 6 個獨立的原始設備製造商，並且仍在運送到服務。在我們第三季度的電話會議中，我們談到了將多個 PX 出售給 PSG 給歐洲的一家工業製冷製造商。這家純技術製造商是比利時、荷蘭和盧森堡比荷盧經濟聯盟地區領先的製冷劑組件和服務提供商。

Fuel expects to commission the first installation with 2 PX G units at a Carrefour store in Benelux. Carrefour is one of the largest supermarket chains in Europe and in the world. Following a visit in January, Hew placed a second order for 6 additional units to be deployed this year, and we are currently negotiating a distribution agreement with fuel for the PX G in the Benelux region. 

Fuel 預計將在比荷盧經濟聯盟的家樂福商店首次安裝 2 個 PX G 裝置。家樂福是歐洲乃至全球最大的連鎖超市之一。在 1 月份訪問之後，Hew 下了第二份訂單，要求在今年部署 6 個額外的裝置，我們目前正在就比荷盧地區 PX G 的燃料分銷協議進行談判。

This relationship is the first formal step in building a broader pipeline and backhaul and a critical achievement for the energy recovery in the refrigeration space. As we progress through this year, we will look for more regional distribution agreement like the one we are discussing with Hew for the Benelux region. Even more importantly, in 2023, we look to continue initial PX G installation breakthroughs into end-user supermarket chains to verify potential sales pipeline. 

這種關係是建立更廣泛的管道和回程的第一個正式步驟，也是製冷空間能量回收的關鍵成就。隨著我們今年的進展，我們將尋求更多的區域分銷協議，比如我們正在與 Hew 討論的比荷盧經濟聯盟地區的協議。更重要的是，到 2023 年，我們希望繼續在最終用戶連鎖超市中取得初步 PX G 安裝突破，以驗證潛在的銷售渠道。

Our potential pipeline is already improved by other stores in California, Carrefour stores and the large Southern Europe chain in which after commissioned a PX G last summer. In 2023, our priority is to turn in as many of the European and U.S. supermarket chains into what we call the confirmed addressable markets, which will build confidence in growing our refrigeration business and hitting our revenue targets of $100 million to $300 million by 2026. 

我們潛在的管道已經被加利福尼亞的其他商店、家樂福商店和大型南歐連鎖店改進，去年夏天在這些連鎖店中委託了 PX G。 2023 年，我們的首要任務是將盡可能多的歐洲和美國連鎖超市納入我們所謂的已確認目標市場，這將增強我們對發展製冷業務的信心，並實現到 2026 年 1 億至 3 億美元的收入目標。 A

In support of these actions, we are hiring additional sales account managers for Europe and North America. Our first Europe sales account manager started this January, and will also be hiring a few technicians to assist our partners as we roll out in the coming months. Additionally, we commissioned our PX G as NTNU, the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. NTNU is considered a critical research facility to confirm performance data on new technologies in the refrigeration space in Europe. 

為了支持這些行動，我們正在為歐洲和北美招聘更多的銷售客戶經理。我們的第一位歐洲銷售客戶經理於今年 1 月上任，並且還將聘請一些技術人員在未來幾個月推出時協助我們的合作夥伴。此外，我們將 PX G 委託給挪威科技大學 NTNU。 NTNU 被認為是確認歐洲製冷領域新技術性能數據的關鍵研究機構。

We have been very pleased with our performance, on NTNU refrigeration rack the past months. And we'll be presenting this data at EuroShop in Germany next week. This performance data should provide objective third-party verification of the strength of our technology. In addition to exploring additional regional distribution agreements for the PX G at the EuroShop 2023, we will be joining the AptarGroup, our European joint development partner at that event. 

我們對過去幾個月在 NTNU 冷藏架上的表現非常滿意。下週我們將在德國的 EuroShop 上展示這些數據。該性能數據應為我們的技術實力提供客觀的第三方驗證。除了在 EuroShop 2023 上探索 PX G 的其他區域分銷協議外，我們還將加入我們在該活動中的歐洲聯合開發合作夥伴 AptarGroup。

Apta is a leading player in the refrigeration market in Europe and in the United States through their subsidiary, Kysor Warren. Together with EPTA, we will be showcasing to end users the impressive results of our first deployment in Southern Europe during last summer's record high temperatures as part of Apta's push into new and sustainable products. 

Apta 通過其子公司 Kysor Warren 成為歐洲和美國製冷市場的領先企業。作為 Apta 推出新的可持續產品的一部分，我們將與 EPTA 一起向最終用戶展示我們在去年夏天創紀錄的高溫期間在南歐首次部署的令人印象深刻的結果。

We have previously discussed how the PX G can help alleviate the stress of ever-increasing temperature highs on refrigeration systems. Today's supermarkets building extra refrigeration capacity to handle the hardest days of the year. The historical high temperatures we experienced last year in many parts of the world exceeded the design maximum capacity of many refrigeration systems. 

我們之前已經討論過 PX G 如何幫助減輕製冷系統不斷升高的高溫帶來的壓力。今天的超市建設額外的製冷能力來應對一年中最艱難的日子。我們去年在世界許多地方經歷的歷史高溫超過了許多製冷系統的設計最大容量。

This caused some supermarket shares to shut down their stores to avoid losing refrigerated inventory. This is a significant loss of revenue and profit. Our PX G's unique ability to provide additional capacity as temperatures rise means you no longer need to overbuild the system if our PX G is installed. In fact, our technology can help handle these unexpected spikes in temperatures where it is needed most at a significantly lower cost than existing technologies, protecting their operating margin. 

這導致一些超市股份關閉了他們的商店，以避免損失冷藏庫存。這是收入和利潤的重大損失。我們的 PX G 具有在溫度升高時提供額外容量的獨特能力，這意味著如果安裝了我們的 PX G，您將不再需要過度構建系統。事實上，我們的技術可以幫助在最需要的地方以比現有技術低得多的成本處理這些意外的溫度峰值，從而保護他們的運營利潤。

We still have much to do to achieve our $100 million to $300 million targeted revenue in 2026. But momentum is clearly building. Market interest is strong and the demand for solutions such as our PX G is there. As we continue to demonstrate the reliability of our PX G, our confidence in hitting our targets will be further solidified. I look forward to provide further updates during our next call in May. With that, I will turn the call over to Josh.

要在 2026 年實現 1 億至 3 億美元的目標收入，我們還有很多工作要做。但勢頭顯然正在增強。市場興趣濃厚，對我們的 PX G 等解決方案的需求就在那裡。隨著我們繼續展示 PX G 的可靠性，我們實現目標的信心將得到進一步鞏固。我期待在 5 月的下一次通話中提供進一步的更新。有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Josh。

Good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with revenue. We generated $121.6 million in desalination revenue and nearly $4 million in industrial wastewater in 2022 for a combined total growth of 21% for the year. Mega projects continued to pick up pace as expected, growing nearly 9% in 2022, and OEM and aftermarket achieved 64% and 36% growth, respectively. Desalination OEM revenue, excluding industrial wastewater, grew nearly 50% to $25 million, exceeding our previous annual high and desalination OEM sales by 9%. 

大家下午好。我將從收入開始。到 2022 年，我們產生了 1.216 億美元的海水淡化收入和近 400 萬美元的工業廢水收入，全年總增長 21%。大型項目如預期繼續加快步伐，2022 年增長近 9%，OEM 和售後市場分別實現 64% 和 36% 的增長。海水淡化 OEM 收入（不包括工業廢水）增長近 50%，達到 2500 萬美元，超過我們之前的年度高點和海水淡化 OEM 銷售額 9%。

The geographic dynamics of our 2022 revenue are also important. We continue to see a steady growth in the Middle East and Africa of 10% for the year, an acceleration from 2021's increase of only 6%. The However, Asia is where the real story lies. We achieved over 30% growth in 2022 on the heels of over 150% growth in 2021. This rapid increase over the past few years highlights major freshwater issues in Asia. Countries such as China and India are turning to desalination and filtration of wastewater to help alleviate their water problems. 

我們 2022 年收入的地理動態也很重要。我們繼續看到中東和非洲今年穩定增長 10%，比 2021 年僅 6% 的增長有所加速。然而，亞洲才是真正的故事所在。繼 2021 年超過 150% 的增長之後，我們在 2022 年實現了超過 30% 的增長。過去幾年的這種快速增長凸顯了亞洲主要的淡水問題。中國和印度等國家正在轉向海水淡化和廢水過濾，以幫助緩解他們的水資源問題。

In addition, we are beginning to see sales in other countries outside of China and India, which made up 16% of industrial wastewater sales last year. Finally, last quarter, I had referenced $4 million of at-risk backlog in Egypt that was delayed due to local hard currency capital controls. We were able to realize about half of that at risk backlog, with the balance expected to be shipped this year. 

此外，我們開始在中國和印度以外的其他國家看到銷售額，去年這些國家佔工業廢水銷售額的 16%。最後，在上個季度，我提到了埃及 400 萬美元的風險積壓訂單，由於當地硬通貨資本管製而被推遲。我們能夠實現大約一半的風險積壓，預計今年將發貨。

We will retain our desalination revenue growth guidance for 2023 of 3% to 7% or $125 million to $130 million. We continue to expect desalination revenue to be heavily weighted to the third and fourth quarters with up to 70% to 80% of revenue occurring in the second half of the year. 

我們將保留 2023 年海水淡化收入增長 3% 至 7% 或 1.25 億美元至 1.3 億美元的目標。我們繼續預計海水淡化收入將主要集中在第三和第四季度，其中高達 70% 至 80% 的收入發生在下半年。

We are currently anticipating revenue within the lower to mid-range of our $10 million to $15 million guidance for the first quarter. Our range remains the same at $20 million to $25 million in the second quarter, with the balance occurring in Q3 and Q4. We are also maintaining our industrial wastewater target of $6 million to $8 million in revenue in 2023 for a combined water revenue of $131 million to $138 million.

我們目前預計第一季度的收入在我們 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的指導範圍內。我們的範圍在第二季度保持不變，為 2000 萬美元至 2500 萬美元，平衡發生在第三季度和第四季度。我們還維持 2023 年工業廢水收入 600 萬至 800 萬美元的目標，水資源總收入為 1.31 億美元至 1.38 億美元。

Last quarter, I mentioned 3 risks to growth that we are closely monitoring this year: inflation, the strengthening dollar and the potential for a global economic downturn. Although these risks remain 2 of the 3 risks have alleviated somewhat over the past few months, the rapid strengthening of the U.S. dollar against many of the local currencies in the countries into which we sell has softened. And we have seen that inflation is beginning to be addressed in many of these same countries. 

上個季度，我提到了我們今年密切關注的 3 大增長風險：通貨膨脹、美元走強和全球經濟下滑的可能性。儘管這些風險仍然存在，但在過去幾個月中，3 種風險中的 2 種有所緩解，但美元兌我們銷售國家/地區的許多當地貨幣的快速走強已經減弱。我們已經看到，在許多這些國家中，通貨膨脹正開始得到解決。

We are continuing to monitor if these risks could affect revenue or our pipeline this year and next, and we'll keep you apprised. Now let's turn to gross margin where we significantly exceeded the upper end of our target for 2022. Our overall gross margin performance for the year was driven by 3 factors: one, the success of our sales team and increasing pricing in response to inflation; two, a product mix that shifted heavily to the PX in the fourth quarter; and three, our outperformance in industrial wastewater and improved pricing in those markets, which helped increase our overall margin by about 0.5% for the year. 

我們將繼續監控這些風險是否會影響今年和明年的收入或我們的管道，我們會及時通知您。現在讓我們談談毛利率，我們大大超過了 2022 年目標的上限。我們今年的整體毛利率表現受到 3 個因素的推動：第一，我們的銷售團隊的成功和為應對通貨膨脹而提高的定價；第二，第四季度大量轉向 PX 的產品組合；第三，我們在工業廢水方面的出色表現以及這些市場定價的改善，幫助我們今年的整體利潤率提高了約 0.5%。

We are maintaining our 2023 outlook of 64% to 56% average gross margin for the year for water. However, our first and potentially second quarter margin may come in lower than this average because of our shift in product mix in favor of the PPX in the fourth quarter last year. We are currently projecting 60% to 64% gross margin in the first quarter, largely dependent on the final product mix of sales. 

我們維持 2023 年水業務平均毛利率為 64% 至 56% 的預期。然而，由於去年第四季度我們的產品組合轉向有利於 PPX，我們第一季度和第二季度的利潤率可能會低於這一平均水平。我們目前預計第一季度的毛利率為 60% 至 64%，這在很大程度上取決於銷售的最終產品組合。

Note that we have seen lower margins in prior years and quarters more weighted to OEM and aftermarket sales. So this is not a new phenomenon. The second half of 2023 will likely be heavily weighted to mega project PX shipments, where margins will improve and balance out the year. Now let's turn to operating expenses. We ended the year with OpEx slightly less than 50% of revenue or 48% when adjusted for onetime nonrecurring expenses compared to 55% in 2021. 

請注意，我們已經看到前幾年和季度的利潤率較低，更多的是 OEM 和售後市場銷售。所以這不是一個新現象。 2023 年下半年，大型項目 PX 出貨量可能會佔很大比重，利潤率將提高並平衡全年。現在讓我們談談運營費用。與 2021 年的 55% 相比，我們年底的 OpEx 略低於收入的 50% 或按一次性非經常性支出調整後為 48%。

While sales and marketing increased by 1% in 2022 to 13% of revenue, we saw declines in G&A from 24% to 22% and R&D from 19% to 13% excluding any onetime nonrecurring expenses. Our OpEx guidance for 2023 remains unchanged at 52% to 53% of revenue this year, excluding any potential upside from CO2 refrigeration revenues. I mentioned during the last call that sales and marketing will increase 30% to 40% this year, pushing the spend to 17% to 18% of revenue. 

雖然銷售和營銷在 2022 年增長了 1%，佔收入的 13%，但我們看到 G&A 從 24% 下降到 22%，研發從 19% 下降到 13%，不包括任何一次性非經常性費用。我們對 2023 年的運營支出指南保持不變，佔今年收入的 52% 至 53%，不包括 CO2 製冷收入的任何潛在上升空間。我在上次電話會議中提到，今年銷售和營銷將增長 30% 至 40%，將支出推高至收入的 17% 至 18%。

However, I expect G&A to grow only in the low to mid-single digits, largely driven by inflation. R&D spend will likely remain flat in 2023. Therefore, both G&A and R&D spend should flatten or fall somewhat as a percentage of revenue this year, which is in line with our longer-term targets. With regards to net income, note that our first and second quarters will show negative income. 

但是，我預計 G&A 只會以中低個位數增長，這主要是受通貨膨脹的推動。研發支出在 2023 年可能會保持不變。因此，今年 G&A 和研發支出佔收入的百分比應該會持平或有所下降，這符合我們的長期目標。關於淨收入，請注意我們的第一季度和第二季度將顯示負收入。

Keep in mind that sales are significantly lower in the first 2 quarters, but our OpEx is relatively fixed and growing. This is simply because of the lumpy nature of our quarterly sales due to the timing of mega project shipments and has happened in past quarters as well. We will see a significant uptick in profitability from our larger sales in Q3 and Q4, which will balance out the year. 

請記住，前兩個季度的銷售額明顯下降，但我們的運營支出相對固定且不斷增長。這僅僅是因為大型項目出貨的時間安排導致我們的季度銷售額不穩定，並且在過去幾個季度也發生過。我們將看到第三季度和第四季度銷售額的增加使盈利能力顯著提高，這將平衡全年。

We ended the year with $93 million in cash and securities following within our target despite returning $26 million to shareholders last year as we wrapped up our $50 million share buyback program. Our overall operating cash flow was $12.6 million, slightly below the 2021 level. Operating cash was driven by 2 main factors in 2022. First, inventory grew by $8 million for the year.

儘管去年我們完成了 5000 萬美元的股票回購計劃，但我們向股東返還了 2600 萬美元，但我們在今年年底以 9300 萬美元的現金和證券完成了我們的目標。我們的整體運營現金流為 1260 萬美元，略低於 2021 年的水平。 2022 年的運營現金主要受兩個因素驅動。首先，該年度庫存增長了 800 萬美元。

Second, because revenue was heavily weighted to the fourth quarter last year, our accounts receivable balance is significantly higher than in previous years. This increase in receivables is simply due to the timing of these late year sales. We have seen no delays in collections nor any increase in doubtful accounts. We expect to collect the majority of this receivable balance in the first quarter. 

第二，由於去年第四季度收入佔比過高，我們的應收賬款餘額明顯高於往年。應收賬款的增加僅僅是由於這些年末銷售的時間安排。我們沒有看到收款延遲，也沒有看到可疑賬戶的增加。我們預計將在第一季度收回大部分應收賬款餘額。

As we look forward to 2023, it's important to comment on inventory. As I stated earlier, we expect to ship only 20% to 30% of our 2023 revenue in the first half of this year with 70% to 80% of revenue to ship in Q3 and Q4. In order to meet this high demand in the second half of the year, we must continue to build product in the first 2 quarters. Therefore, you should expect substantial growth in finished goods inventory in Q1 and Q2. By the end of the second quarter, we could see an inventory balance as high as $40 million. 

在我們展望 2023 年時，對庫存發表評論很重要。正如我之前所說，我們預計今年上半年僅出貨 2023 年收入的 20% 至 30%，而 70% 至 80% 的收入將在第三季度和第四季度出貨。為了滿足下半年的高需求，我們必須在前兩個季度繼續構建產品。因此，您應該預計第一季度和第二季度產成品庫存將大幅增長。到第二季度末，我們可以看到高達 4000 萬美元的庫存餘額。

This balance should subsequently fall in the second half of the year. By the end of the year, based on water demand, we expect inventory levels to end the year roughly in line with 2022. Any additional increase or rise will be driven by our CO2 business, which we will communicate as the year plays out. In addition, based on our first and second quarter shipment expectations, we should see lower-than-normal cash and investment balances by the end of the second quarter, possibly falling to a range of $70 million to $80 million, which should subsequently rebound in the second half of the year. 

該餘額隨後應在今年下半年下降。到今年年底，根據用水需求，我們預計庫存水平將在年底大致與 2022 年持平。任何額外的增加或增加都將由我們的 CO2 業務推動，我們將在今年結束時進行溝通。此外，根據我們第一季度和第二季度的出貨預期，到第二季度末我們應該會看到低於正常水平的現金和投資餘額，可能會降至 7000 萬至 8000 萬美元的範圍內，隨後應該會在今年下半年。

Depending on the timing of shipments in the fourth quarter, we should end the year with between $110 million to $120 million in cash and securities, driven by growing operating cash flow. Let's move to Q&A.

根據第四季度的發貨時間，在不斷增長的運營現金流的推動下，我們應該會在年底擁有 1.1 億至 1.2 億美元的現金和證券。讓我們轉到問答環節。

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Graham Price with Raymond James.

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Graham Price 和 Raymond James。

I guess for my first when you talked about the refrigeration distribution agreement in the Benelux region, I was wondering if you could just give a little more detail on how big that revenue opportunity is and how you see that playing out over the coming years?

我想當你第一次談到比荷盧地區的製冷分銷協議時，我想知道你是否可以更詳細地說明這個收入機會有多大，以及你如何看待未來幾年的發展？

So first, Greg, just to highlight, this is Josh, and I hope you're doing well. I want to note that we did just release a press release here this afternoon that we did sign that agreement with Hew today. So that agreement is live in the Benelux and the Benelux, obviously with the population count that it has is going to be a smaller amount of revenue that we're going to be able to realize in Europe. 

首先，Greg，我想強調一下，我是 Josh，我希望你一切順利。我想指出，我們今天下午剛剛在這裡發布了一份新聞稿，我們今天確實與 Hew 簽署了該協議。因此，該協議在比荷盧經濟聯盟和比荷盧經濟聯盟都有效，顯然，它擁有的人口數量將是我們將能夠在歐洲實現的較小收入。

But it's a very important and key milestone for us signing this agreement as it shows an important proof point and confidence in the ability of our technology to reduce costs for supermarkets and industrial sites and so forth.

但這對我們簽署這項協議來說是一個非常重要和關鍵的里程碑，因為它顯示了一個重要的證據和對我們技術降低超市和工業場所等成本的能力的信心。

Got it. And I guess, as you sign additional agreements, do you think those will be exclusive in nature as well?

知道了。我想，當你簽署額外的協議時，你認為這些協議在本質上是否也具有排他性？

Some definitely yes, whether all of them will be exclusive, we don't know at this point.

有些肯定是的，是否所有這些都是排他性的，我們目前還不知道。

Got it. Understood. So maybe switching gears a little bit. It's been roughly 6 months since Gavin Newsom talked about ramping up desal in California. Just wondering if you've seen any evidence that anything is changing in a large sense in that area?

知道了。明白了。所以也許換檔一點。自加文·紐瑟姆 (Gavin Newsom) 談到在加州加大海水淡化力度以來，已經過去了大約 6 個月。只是想知道您是否看到任何證據表明該領域在很大程度上發生了變化？

The short answer is no. California and desal, you know the story.

最簡潔的答案是不。加利福尼亞和淡水河，你知道這個故事。

Got it. Okay. Understood. And then I guess final one for me. Just on the cash balance, obviously, ended the year at a very healthy level and didn't see any buybacks this quarter. So I was just wondering and I know I'm guessing kind of the inventory build and the back-end weighted revenue plays into it. But how are you thinking about buybacks for the rest of the year?

知道了。好的。明白了。然後我想最後一個適合我。顯然，就現金餘額而言，今年年底時現金餘額非常健康，本季度沒有看到任何回購。所以我只是想知道，我知道我在猜測某種庫存構建和後端加權收入。但你如何考慮今年剩餘時間的回購？

Well, right now, Graham, we're really looking at how our markets could evolve here over this year. So for example, we have more confidence in where water is headed, and we built a lot of capacity for that as well as inventory at this stage. But CO2 is still a bit of unknown, and we could have pretty substantial investments in CO2 if it accelerates in the latter half of the year as well as we talked about before, potential additional fixed asset investments in order to build up capacity for that business. 

好吧，現在，格雷厄姆，我們真的在研究我們的市場今年會如何發展。因此，例如，我們對水的去向更有信心，我們為此建立了大量的能力以及現階段的庫存。但是 CO2 仍然有點未知，如果它在今年下半年加速，我們可能會對 CO2 進行大量投資，就像我們之前談到的那樣，潛在的額外固定資產投資，以建立該業務的能力。A

So at this stage, we're watching that because we're going to need cash for that build, both working capital and fixed assets, not to say nothing of the kind of the low cash flow we're going to have in the first couple of quarters just because of sales. So I wouldn't expect anything in the near term, but it is something we keep obviously discussing with the Board.

所以在這個階段，我們正在關注這一點，因為我們將需要現金來進行建設，包括營運資金和固定資產，更不用說我們在第一階段將擁有的那種低現金流幾個季度只是因為銷售。所以我不希望在短期內發生任何事情，但顯然我們一直在與董事會討論這個問題。

Okay. Perfect. That's it for me. So I'll pass it along.

好的。完美的。對我來說就是這樣。所以我會把它傳下去。

Our next question is from Nils Thommesen with Fernley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fernley Securities 的 Nils Thommesen。請繼續你的問題。

Good afternoon. I'm just wondering, given that you're now shipping out a couple of these PX G units to Europe and other markets, do you have sort of a lower range in terms of revenue to communicate for 2023? Or is it still too early?

下午好。我只是想知道，鑑於您現在正在向歐洲和其他市場運送一些 PX G 裝置，您是否有較低的 2023 年收入範圍？還是現在還為時過早？

It's still too early. That's why we're highlighting that our emphasis is breaking through into new supermarket chains, what we call confirmed addressable market, and that's what we're following. Actually, we find out that this has been very conservative interest in adopting new things. But our value proposition is such we are very confident once we break into a new chain, that whole chain becomes a pipeline, then we can meaningfully discuss timing and volume.

現在還為時過早。這就是為什麼我們強調我們的重點是突破到新的連鎖超市，我們稱之為確認的可尋址市場，這就是我們所關注的。實際上，我們發現這是一種非常保守的採用新事物的興趣。但我們的價值主張是，一旦我們進入一個新的鏈條，整個鏈條就變成了一條管道，我們就非常有信心，然後我們就可以有意義地討論時間和數量。

Right. And at what point do you expect that you can make a decision on potentially building another plant or facility to add capacity to CO2? That's sort of a 2023 event.

正確的。您預計在什麼時候可以決定是否可能建造另一家工廠或設施來增加 CO2 產能？這有點像 2023 年的事件。

Right now, we have excess capacities in our time. As you know, it's the same oxide material. So we think probably is towards the end of the year, fourth quarter, we have to look at capacity increase.

現在，我們這個時代的產能過剩。如您所知，它是相同的氧化物材料。所以我們認為可能是在年底，第四季度，我們必須看看產能增加。

So to be clear, those investments would occur next year, most likely, right, even if we started the process this year. So we'll get more updates in the latter half of the year in terms of how that cash outflow would look like.

所以需要明確的是，即使我們今年開始這個過程，這些投資也很可能在明年發生。因此，我們將在今年下半年獲得更多關於現金流出情況的更新。

Our next question is from Ryan Pfingst with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Ryan Pfingst。請繼續你的問題。

The last time we spoke, we talked about exiting this year with backlog allowing for sales in the double-digit million range for '24 for CO2 refrigeration. And Josh, on the 3Q call, you spoke about the potential for desal growth to once again reach 20% again in 2024. Is that still how you guys are still thinking about those 2 items?

上次我們發言時，我們談到了今年退出積壓，允許 24 年二氧化碳製冷的銷售額達到兩位數。喬希，在第三季度的電話會議上，你談到了 2024 年脫鹽增長有可能再次達到 20%。你們仍然是這樣考慮這兩個項目的嗎？

Yes. As of today, those are how we're still looking and with CO2, in particular, we'll see how this year plays out, but that's certainly the targets we're pushing for. And then as I mentioned today in my prepared remarks on the desal side, we're just very closely watching the market in terms of these major risks that we're seeing globally, and we'll certainly keep you guys apprised as well as this year progresses. But where we stand today there are no changes.

是的。截至今天，這些就是我們仍在尋找的方式，尤其是二氧化碳，我們將看到今年的結果如何，但這肯定是我們正在努力實現的目標。然後正如我今天在脫鹽方面準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們正在密切關注我們在全球範圍內看到的這些主要風險方面的市場，我們肯定會讓你們了解這一點一年過去了。但我們今天所處的位置沒有任何變化。

Got it. And we touched on California a little bit, but with the Colorado River running low and getting more attention and I think just the growing problem of less available water here in the U.S. Are you guys seeing talks around domestic desalination demand picking up steam recently?

知道了。我們稍微談到了加利福尼亞，但隨著科羅拉多河水位下降並受到越來越多的關注，我認為美國這裡的可用水資源越來越少的問題越來越嚴重。你們是否看到最近關於國內海水淡化需求的討論正在升溫？

Recently I glanced at very interesting top line says that the Arizona may be considering building desal for Mexico to trade for Mexico's Colorado quota. I don't know how true is that. And if that's true in that store well maybe just pure speculation with California. In terms of desal, maybe California would also trade Colorado quota with Mexico desal.

最近我瞥了一眼非常有趣的頂線，說亞利桑那州可能正在考慮為墨西哥建造海水淡化廠以換取墨西哥的科羅拉多配額。我不知道這有多真實。如果那家商店是真的，那麼可能只是對加利福尼亞的純粹猜測。在海水淡化方面，也許加利福尼亞也會與墨西哥海水淡化交易科羅拉多配額。

Got it. And then maybe just one more for me. Obviously, your market share in the core business has been really impressive for a long time. But could you maybe talk about the competitive landscape a little bit and anything you're keeping an eye on that could potentially balance (technical difficulty).

知道了。然後對我來說也許只有一個。顯然，您在核心業務中的市場份額長期以來一直非常可觀。但是你能不能談談競爭格局以及你關注的任何可能平衡的東西（技術難度）。

We always keep our eye on competition, but there is nothing new to report from what we reported in the last quarter. And if they're out there, and we're watching. Our Q400 is being received very well. In some ways, competition was gearing up targeting our Q300. Now we have Q400.

我們始終關注競爭，但我們在上一季度的報告中沒有什麼新的報告。如果他們在那裡，我們正在觀看。我們的 Q400 反響很好。在某些方面，競爭正以我們的 Q300 為目標。現在我們有了 Q400。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Wally Walker with Hana Road Capital. Please proceed with your question.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Wally Walker 和 Hana Road Capital。請繼續你的問題。

Congratulations on the quarter and the year. Aftermarket growth was impressive and accelerated the year-end. Can you elaborate a little bit on rate change and if that's a trend? And is it fair to think of that as recurring revenue going forward?

祝賀本季度和本年度。售後市場增長令人印象深刻，並在年底加速增長。你能詳細說明一下利率變化嗎？這是否是一種趨勢？將其視為未來的經常性收入是否公平？

Yes. Hey Wally, hope you're doing well. We saw some great growth in aftermarket this year as well as OEM. But we are expecting it. Some of this was kind of a post covid balance in 2022. So we are expecting it to temper a bit this year, at least in terms of growth. And this could mean either flattening, with aftermarket I'd expect it to flatten or low growth this year compared to what we saw in 2022. 

是的。嘿，沃利，希望你一切順利。今年我們在售後市場和 OEM 方面看到了一些巨大的增長。但我們期待它。其中一些是 2022 年的後 covid 平衡。因此我們預計它今年會有所緩和，至少在增長方面是這樣。這可能意味著與我們在 2022 年看到的情況相比，今年售後市場將趨於平緩或增長緩慢。

Aftermarket is really a function of our installed base, right? And so as we grow it grows with us. And it's been a pretty stable, call it, 8 to 10-ish percent typically of revenue. And that's kind of what we still anchor on, although it's a bit higher this year. OEM as well. Of course, we saw this big covid balance and OEM, I think this year, we include pretty much the same story.

售後市場真的是我們安裝基礎的功能，對吧？因此，隨著我們的成長，它也會與我們一起成長。它一直非常穩定，通常佔收入的 8% 到 10%。這就是我們仍然堅持的目標，儘管今年有所提高。代工也是如此。當然，我們看到了這種巨大的 covid 平衡和 OEM，我認為今年，我們包含了幾乎相同的故事。

It's going to revert back to its normal growth rate. We're kind of above that curve right now, which is why one reason why we talked about last quarter, we're seeing somewhat lower growth this year because the OEM is going to flatten or perhaps even be a little lower than this year just as it returns to its normal growth curve, if that makes sense.

它將恢復到正常的增長率。我們現在有點高於該曲線，這就是為什麼我們談到上個季度的原因之一，我們看到今年的增長有所放緩，因為 OEM 將趨於平緩，甚至可能比今年略低因為它恢復到正常的增長曲線，如果這是有道理的。

Yes. One other thing for me, please. expected tax rate in '23, how should we model for those? It's a good question. That's something you know what I probably should have included in my script because I think last quarter, I talked about a 10% to 15% expected tax rate. But as we've been looking at we came in at about 8% this year. What we're finding is, we had a lot of changes last year. 

是的。請給我另一件事。 23 年的預期稅率，我們應該如何建模？這是個好問題。你知道我可能應該在我的腳本中包含什麼，因為我認為上個季度，我談到了 10% 到 15% 的預期稅率。但正如我們一直在關注的那樣，我們今年的增長率約為 8%。我們發現的是，去年我們發生了很多變化。

We've utilized all of our cumulative net operating losses, which is great because that means we're making money. Because we utilize those losses, we're starting to get a new benefit starting last year called the foreign-derived intangible income tax benefit, which is really the fact that benefit you get (inaudible) right? And it's pretty big for us. This year, it was almost 7% for 2022. We also get a pretty healthy R&D tax credit. 

我們已經利用了我們所有的累計淨經營虧損，這很好，因為這意味著我們在賺錢。因為我們利用了這些損失，我們從去年開始獲得一項新的福利，稱為外國無形所得稅福利，這就是您獲得的福利（聽不清），對嗎？這對我們來說相當大。今年，到 2022 年幾乎是 7%。我們還獲得了相當健康的研發稅收抵免。

So because of the fact that we used all of those NOLs and they're now gone, it's actually going to boost our foreign-derived intangible income tax benefit, which means it's bigger this year. I think we probably revise our estimate down from 10% to 15% to more like 8% to 12% as we look forward, at least for the next few years.

因此，由於我們使用了所有這些 NOL 而它們現在已經消失了，這實際上會增加我們從國外獲得的無形所得稅優惠，這意味著今年它會更大。我認為我們可能會將我們的估計從 10% 到 15% 下調到更接近 8% 到 12%，因為我們期待，至少在未來幾年是這樣。

That's excluding any effect we may get from our share-based comp tax benefit that we get because that's pretty volatile and not dependent on us if that makes sense, mostly driven by this FDII benefit, which is pretty new.

這不包括我們可能從我們獲得的基於股份的稅收優惠中獲得的任何影響，因為它非常不穩定，如果有意義的話，不依賴於我們，主要是由 FDII 福利驅動的，這是非常新的。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to James Siccardi for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回給 James Siccardi，請他發表任何結束評論。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. As a reminder, our prepared remarks and the most recent press releases can be found on the website. We look forward to speaking with you again in early May, I guess it's the 3rd of May. Other than that, I have a great weekend, and great rest of your week, and we will be participating in follow-up calls over the next couple of days. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。提醒一下，我們準備好的評論和最新的新聞稿可以在網站上找到。我們期待在 5 月初再次與您交談，我想是 5 月 3 日。除此之外，我周末過得愉快，你這一周也休息得很愉快，我們將在接下來的幾天裡參加後續電話會議。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。