Enerplus Corp (ERF) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Enerplus Q3 2023 Results Conference Call.

    早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加 Enerplus 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Also note that this call is being recorded on Friday, November 3, 2023.

    (操作員說明)另請注意,此通話的錄音時間為 2023 年 11 月 3 日星期五。

  • And now I would like to turn the conference over to Drew Mair. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我想把會議交給德魯·梅爾。請繼續,先生。

  • Drew Mair - Manager of IR

    Drew Mair - Manager of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the call.

    謝謝接線員,大家早安。感謝您加入通話。

  • Before we get started, please take note of the advisories located at the end of our third quarter news release. Our financials have been prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Our production volumes are reported on a net after deduction of royalty basis. And our financial figures are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise specified.

    在我們開始之前,請注意第三季新聞稿末尾的建議。我們的財務數據是根據美國公認會計準則編制的。我們的產量以扣除特許權使用費後的淨額報告。除非另有說明,我們的財務數據均以美元為單位。

  • I'm here this morning with Ian Dundas, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Wade Hutchings, Senior VP and Chief Operating Officer; Jodi Jenson Labrie, Senior VP and Chief Financial Officer; Garth Doll, VP Marketing; and Shaina Morihira, VP, Finance.

    今天早上我和我們的總裁兼執行長 Ian Dundas 一起來到這裡。 Wade Hutchings,資深副總裁兼營運長; Jodi Jenson Labrie,資深副總裁兼財務長; Garth Doll,行銷副總裁;和 Shaina Morihira,財務副總裁。

  • Following our discussion, we will open up the call for questions. With that, I will turn it over to Ian.

    討論結束後,我們將開放提問。這樣,我就把它交給伊恩。

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • Good morning, everyone. Our positive operating momentum this year continued through the third quarter.

    大家,早安。我們今年積極的經營動能持續到第三季。

  • Liquids production was up 14% sequentially, outperforming our forecast. Once again, underpinning this production performance is strong well productivity from our core Bakken position. The outperformance of our wells has taken our annual production forecast higher, and we have increased our 2023 production guidance. The guidance update points to an increase in annual total production of 2,000 BOE per day, and liquids production of 1,000 barrels per day at the midpoint.

    液體產量較上季成長 14%,超出我們的預測。我們巴肯核心地位的強大油井生產力再次支撐了這一生產業績。我們油井的出色表現提高了我們的年度產量預測,並提高了 2023 年的產量指導。指導更新指出,年總產量將增加 2,000 桶油當量/天,液體產量中位數將增加 1,000 桶/天。

  • Adjusting for the divestment of our Canadian assets last year, the midpoint of our guidance is moving to 7% year-over-year liquids production growth in 2023. This is the second consecutive year of exceeding our stated 3% to 5% annual liquids growth projection, and has positioned us meaningfully ahead of the 5-year plan we rolled out in 2021.

    根據去年加拿大資產的剝離進行調整,我們指導的中點是 2023 年液體產量同比增長 7%。這是連續第二年超過我們規定的 3% 至 5% 的年度液體增長預測,並使我們明顯領先於2021 年推出的5 年計畫。

  • Although anticipated to be modestly lower, we expect fourth quarter liquids production to remain resilient through the end of the year, and are guiding to Q4 volumes -- liquids volumes of 60,500 to 64,500 barrels per day. This will leave us well positioned as we enter 2024.

    儘管預計會小幅下降,但我們預計第四季度液體產量將在年底前保持彈性,並指導第四季度的產量——液體產量為每天 60,500 至 64,500 桶。這將使我們在進入 2024 年時處於有利地位。

  • We continue to track within our original capital budget and have narrowed our annual guidance for capital spending to $520 million to $540 million.

    我們繼續追蹤原始資本預算,並將年度資本支出指引縮小至 5.2 億至 5.4 億美元。

  • The combination of production outperformance, cost focus and the cadence of our capital program is driving a robust free cash flow profile with an attractive outlook for the fourth quarter. This will support a strong return of capital program through the end of the year.

    生產優異、成本關注和資本計劃的節奏相結合,推動了強勁的自由現金流狀況,第四季度的前景具有吸引力。這將支持到年底的強勁資本回報計劃。

  • Having returned $200 million to shareholders during the first 9 months of 2023 and an expectation of returning approximately $300 million of our 2023 cash flow based on the current commodity price environment, the pace of returns is accelerating in the fourth quarter. Quarter-to-date, we have already repurchased about $40 million of stock.

    我們在 2023 年前 9 個月向股東返還了 2 億美元,根據當前的大宗商品價格環境,預計將在 2023 年返還約 3 億美元的現金流,第四季度的回報速度正在加快。本季迄今,我們已經回購了約 4,000 萬美元的股票。

  • Looking ahead into 2024, we expect to continue to return meaningful cash to shareholders. Based on current market conditions, our strong free cash flow outlook and low financial leverage, we expect to return approximately 70% of 2024 free cash flow through share purchases and dividends.

    展望 2024 年,我們預計將繼續向股東返還大量現金。根據當前的市場狀況、我們強勁的自由現金流前景和較低的財務槓桿,我們預計將透過股票購買和股息返還 2024 年自由現金流的約 70%。

  • I will leave it there, and pass the call to Wade for an operational update.

    我會將其留在那裡,然後將電話轉給韋德以獲取最新的運營情況。

  • Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

    Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

  • Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝伊恩,大家早安。

  • Third quarter production from North Dakota grew to just under 78,000 BOE per day, up 13% from the prior quarter. These strong quarterly volumes were driven by an active completions program, comprising 19 operated wells turned online during the quarter, excellent cycle times and solid performance in our base production wells.

    第三季北達科他州的產量增加至略低於 78,000 桶油當量/日,比上一季成長 13%。這些強勁的季度產量是由積極的完井計劃推動的,包括本季度上線的 19 口作業井、出色的周期時間以及我們基地生產井的穩定表現。

  • We brought wells on production across 3 pads in FBIR and 1 in Williams County. We also continued to see strong production performance from the 2 Little Knife pads that we brought online during the second quarter. On average, these wells are continuing to produce quite meaningfully above tight curve expectations.

    我們在 FBIR 的 3 個油田和威廉斯縣的 1 個油田投入生產。我們也繼續看到我們在第二季上線的 2 個 Little Knife 墊的強勁生產表現。平均而言,這些油井的產量持續顯著高於緊曲線預期。

  • We have achieved some notable execution metrics as well this year. On the drilling side, we've averaged just over 10 days for spud to rig release for our 2-mile wells, which is more than a day faster than last year. We also drilled a record pacesetter well, which was 8 days spud to rig release.

    今年我們也取得了一些值得注意的執行指標。在鑽井方面,我們 2 英里井的開鑽到鑽機釋放的平均時間僅超過 10 天,比去年快了一天多。我們還鑽了一口創紀錄的標竿井,從開鑽到鑽機釋放需要 8 天。

  • On the completion side, we've also seen efficiencies build through the year, averaging just under 15 stages per day, also a year-over-year improvement.

    在完工方面,我們也看到全年效率不斷提高,平均每天完成不到 15 個賽段,也比去年同期有所提高。

  • We set a company record on completions to final fracking a 6-well pad in FBIR at 20 stages per day. This strong execution has allowed us to bring volumes online faster and help drive costs lower.

    我們在 FBIR 中以每天 20 級的速度最終完成 6 井井壓裂作業,並創下了公司記錄。這種強大的執行力使我們能夠更快地實現產量並幫助降低成本。

  • Our expectation coming into the year was that our total well costs would average $7.8 million. With the efficiency gains we realized and lower steel costs, we anticipate coming in just below this forecast.

    我們預計今年的油井總成本平均為 780 萬美元。隨著我們實現效率提升和鋼鐵成本降低,我們預期產量將略低於此預測。

  • And based on our procurement work for 2024, where we have secured key supply chain elements, including drilling rigs, directional services, sand and pumping services, our expectation today is that we could see well costs come in approximately 5% lower next year.

    根據我們 2024 年的採購工作,我們已經獲得了關鍵的供應鏈要素,包括鑽機、定向服務、砂和泵送服務,我們今天的預期是,明年油井成本可能會降低約 5%。

  • Turning to our non-operated Marcellus position. As expected, we saw quarterly volumes declined sequentially by 6% to 145 million cubic feet per day, driven by limited capital activity this year. We expect our capital allocation to the Marcellus this year will represent just 3% of our 2023 capital budget.

    轉向我們的非營運馬塞勒斯職位。正如預期的那樣,由於今年資本活動有限,我們看到季度成交量環比下降 6%,至每天 1.45 億立方英尺。我們預計今年對 Marcellus 的資本分配僅佔 2023 年資本預算的 3%。

  • Lastly, we have made significant progress reducing our GHG emissions intensity through improved operational processes and planning and investment in emissions reduction projects. We now expect to exceed our 2030 Scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity reduction target this year, representing an approximate reduction of 40% from the 2021 baseline, and 55% from 2019.

    最後,透過改善營運流程以及減排專案的規劃和投資,我們在降低溫室氣體排放強度方面取得了重大進展。我們現在預計今年將超過 2030 年範圍 1 和 2 排放強度削減目標,即較 2021 年基準減少約 40%,較 2019 年減少 55%。

  • We are also tracking ahead of our methane intensity reduction targets, and we expect to achieve an approximate 45% reduction from the 2021 baseline, and 65% from 2019.

    我們也正在追蹤甲烷強度減少目標,預計將比 2021 年基線減少約 45%,比 2019 年減少 65%。

  • To reflect this performance and our outlook for reducing a greater proportion of emissions by 2030 than previously anticipated, we have revised our emissions intensity targets. These targets are detailed in our quarterly disclosures released yesterday.

    為了反映這一業績以及我們到 2030 年比之前預期減少更多排放量的前景,我們修改了排放強度目標。這些目標在我們昨天發布的季度披露中進行了詳細說明。

  • In addition, we are endorsing the World Bank Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative, and have established a flare intensity target of less than 2% per 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas produced by 2026.

    此外,我們也支持世界銀行「到 2030 年實現零例行火炬燃燒」倡議,並制定了到 2026 年每生產 1,000 立方英尺天然氣火炬強度低於 2% 的目標。

  • I'll leave it there, and turn the call over to Jodi.

    我會把它留在那裡,然後把電話轉給喬迪。

  • Jodine Julene-Jenson Labrie - Senior VP & CFO

    Jodine Julene-Jenson Labrie - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Wade. I'll start with our price realizations. In the Bakken, our realized oil price differential was $0.20 per barrel above WTI in the quarter. This was stronger than the previous quarter, reflecting higher prices for crude oil delivered to downstream markets in both Patoka and the U.S. Gulf Coast by the Dakota Access pipeline, combined with the recovery in WTI prices throughout the summer.

    謝謝,韋德。我將從我們的價格實現開始。在巴肯,本季我們的實際油價差價比 WTI 每桶 0.20 美元。這一數字強於上一季度,反映出透過 Dakota Access 管道輸送到帕託卡和美國墨西哥灣沿岸下游市場的原油價格上漲,以及整個夏季 WTI 價格的復甦。

  • Additionally, U.S. refinery utilizations and margins remained strong throughout the third quarter of 2023. However, we've seen some modestly weaker trading in Bakken crude oil prices so far in the fourth quarter due to increased base in production and lower seasonal refinery demand resulting from maintenance outages.

    此外,美國煉油廠利用率和利潤率在 2023 年第三季保持強勁。然而,由於產量基礎增加和季節性煉油廠需求下降,我們看到第四季迄今巴肯原油價格交易略有疲軟。維護中斷。

  • As a result, we are revising our annual 2023 expected Bakken crude oil price differentials to $0.25 per barrel below WTI from par with WTI previously.

    因此,我們將 2023 年巴肯原油年度預期價差從先前與 WTI 的水平調整為每桶比 WTI 低 0.25 美元。

  • In the Marcellus, our realized natural gas price differential weakened to $1.24 per Mcf below NYMEX, reflecting increased supply in the Northeast U.S. and regional storage levels tracking above historical averages.

    在馬塞勒斯,我們的天然氣實際價差減弱至低於 NYMEX 的每立方英尺 1.24 美元,反映出美國東北部的供應增加以及區域存儲水平高於歷史平均水平。

  • As a result of the weaker realizations, we are widening our annual 2023 expected Marcellus natural gas differential by $0.10 to $0.85 per Mcf below NYMEX.

    由於變現較弱,我們將 2023 年年度預期 Marcellus 天然氣價差擴大至每立方英尺 0.10 美元至 0.85 美元,較 NYMEX 低。

  • Operating expenses came in at $10.17 per BOE in the quarter. We continue to expect operating expenses to increase in the fourth quarter due to planned workover activity. However, with our strong year-to-date performance, our operating expenses are tracking the lower end of our previous full year guidance range.

    本季每桶油當量營運費用為 10.17 美元。由於計劃的修井活動,我們繼續預計第四季度營運費用將增加。然而,鑑於我們今年迄今的強勁業績,我們的營運費用正在追隨我們先前全年指導範圍的下限。

  • As a result, we have revised our 2023 OpEx guidance to $10.75 to $11 per BOE, from $10.75 to $11.50 per BOE previously.

    因此,我們將 2023 年營運支出指引從先前的每 BOE 10.75 美元至 11.50 美元修訂為 10.75 美元至 11 美元。

  • Overall, we generated $264 million of adjusted funds flow during the quarter, with capital spending of $121 million. Our free cash flow was $142 million.

    總體而言,本季我們產生了 2.64 億美元的調整後資金流,其中資本支出為 1.21 億美元。我們的自由現金流為 1.42 億美元。

  • As our capital spending is expected to taper in the fourth quarter, we anticipate Q4 will be another strong period of free cash flow generation.

    由於我們的資本支出預計將在第四季度減少,我們預計第四季度將是自由現金流產生的另一個強勁時期。

  • Earlier, as Ian mentioned, this is setting up an attractive return of capital profile to finish the year, having already repurchased $40 million in stock during the month of October, with a total estimated return of $100 million in the fourth quarter, including the dividend.

    早些時候,正如 Ian 所提到的,這為今年年底的資本回報奠定了良好的基礎,10 月已經回購了 4000 萬美元的股票,第四季度的總回報預計為 1 億美元,包括股息。

  • I'll leave it there, and we'll turn the call over to the operator and open it up for questions.

    我會把它留在那裡,我們會將電話轉給接線員並打開它以供提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And your first question will be from Greg Pardy at RBC.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題將由 RBC 的 Greg Pardy 提出。

  • Justin Ho

    Justin Ho

  • It's Justin Ho on for Greg Pardy. With my first question, I'm wondering if you can delve a bit more into your operational game plan for next year? And what areas you expect to be more focused on for drilling activity in North Dakota?

    賈斯汀·何 (Justin Ho) 替補格雷格·帕迪 (Greg Pardy)。關於我的第一個問題,我想知道你是否可以更深入地研究明年的營運計畫?您預計北達科他州的鑽探活動會更關注哪些領域?

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • Wade, do you want to take that, please?

    韋德,你願意接受這個嗎?

  • Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

    Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

  • Yes, happy to. Justin, we look forward to providing even more color on that when we release our full 2024 plan and guidance early in the next year. But we can directionally point you to activity next year in terms of onstreams will be balanced between Fort Berthold and Little Knife. And so you'd expect to see a program that looks quite a bit like this year's, next year.

    是的,很高興。 Justin,我們期待在明年初發布完整的 2024 年計劃和指導時提供更多資訊。但我們可以向您指出,明年的直播活動將在 Fort Berthold 和 Little Knife 之間保持平衡。所以你會期望看到一個看起來很像今年、明年的計畫。

  • Justin Ho

    Justin Ho

  • Wade. That's really helpful. And maybe switching gears. If I heard correctly, I think you mentioned, Wade, that you could see potentially 5% lower well cost next year. Could you provide more color on what's driving that? And if there's any embedded inflation in that expectation?

    韋德。這真的很有幫助。也許還可以換檔。如果我沒聽錯的話,Wade,我想您提到明年油井成本可能會降低 5%。您能否提供更多關於推動這趨勢的因素?這種預期是否存在潛在的通貨膨脹?

  • Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

    Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

  • Yes, happy to. So we think we will end this year just under our $7.8 million total well cost estimate for 2023. And the pacing cost reduction that we saw this year will help us as we move into next year on an average basis.

    是的,很高興。因此,我們認為今年結束時,我們對 2023 年油井總成本的估計將略低於 780 萬美元。今年我們看到的節奏成本下降將有助於我們進入明年的平均成本。

  • And then if you step back and look at the key components of our well costs for next year, the rigs that we need to drill the program next year are secured, the same rigs we've been using actually for a couple of years. We've got pricing secured for those. We have secured pricing and services for pressure pumping. We also have secured all the sand that we'll need, as well as pricing for that sand.

    然後,如果你退後一步,看看我們明年的油井成本的關鍵組成部分,我們明年鑽探該計劃所需的鑽機就得到了保障,這些鑽機是我們實際上已經使用了幾年的鑽機。我們已經為這些產品確定了定價。我們已確保壓力泵的定價和服務。我們還獲得了所需的所有沙子,以及沙子的定價。

  • So a lot of the key services that go into assuring that we can actually execute the program, and have some confidence in the cost that we'll pay for the program are already set.

    因此,許多關鍵服務已經確定,這些服務可確保我們能夠實際執行該計劃,並對我們為該計劃支付的成本有一定的信心。

  • Now the things that will swing for next year are still OCTG and diesel, that would be the 2 biggest ones. So we have enough line of sight to indicate -- we think we'll see around that 5% reduction from where we end this year, going into next year. And that's all predicated on kind of an $80 WTI world. And then we'll just continue to be strategic around trying to secure steel products and other components like that, that aren't locked in.

    現在,明年的主要產品仍然是石油管道和柴油,這將是兩個最大的產品。因此,我們有足夠的視線來表明——我們認為,從今年年底開始,到明年,我們將看到大約 5% 的減少。這一切都是基於 80 美元的 WTI 世界。然後,我們將繼續採取策略措施,努力保護未鎖定的鋼鐵產品和其他類似零件。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will be from Patrick O'Rourke at ATB Capital Markets.

    下一個問題將由 ATB Capital Markets 的 Patrick O'Rourke 提出。

  • Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

    Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

  • So solid results year-to-date, and obviously, you took up the full year guide.

    今年迄今為止取得瞭如此紮實的成果,顯然,您接受了全年指南。

  • Just looking at sort of the granularity in terms of fourth quarter on the liquids production. There's about a 4,000 barrel a day swing between the lower and the upper end of the guide you provided for fourth quarter.

    只是看看第四季液體生產的粒度。您提供的第四季度指南的下限和上限之間每天大約有 4,000 桶波動。

  • So just wondering if you can unpack a little bit about what those sort of swing factors will be that will kind of land you -- where you do in that range?

    因此,我想知道您是否可以稍微了解哪些波動因素會影響您—您在該範圍內的表現如何?

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • Patrick. Yes. I mean, I think you're seeing the granularity of a quarter there, right? We don't factor for -- factor in for storms of the century, but we factor and account for weather that can move things around quite a bit.

    派崔克.是的。我的意思是,我認為您看到的是四分之一的粒度,對吧?我們沒有考慮本世紀的風暴,但我們考慮並考慮了可以使事物發生很大變化的天氣。

  • We're done with the operated program. There's a little bit of non-op onstream that are going to be coming into the mix as well.

    我們已經完成了運行的程式。還有一些非操作性的內容也將加入其中。

  • And maybe my last comment, you're seeing sort of the impact of some really highly productive big pads that have come on, and they can move around a little bit.

    也許我的最後一條評論是,您會看到一些真正高效的大墊的影響,它們可以移動一點。

  • So Wade, I don't know if there's anything else you would add to that story for Patrick?

    韋德,我不知道你是否還有什麼要為派崔克的故事補充的?

  • Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

    Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

  • Yes, I think you've hit on it, Ian. Just maybe a little deeper color on new paths. Even if you go and look at the production that we got from those 2 Little Knife pads in the second quarter, and then look at how anyone would have tried to forecast those into the third quarter, we had a pretty wide band of uncertainty. You now see what those did in the third quarter. They were -- continue to be very robust.

    是的,我想你已經想到了,伊恩。只是新路徑上的顏色可能更深。即使你去看看我們在第二季從這兩個小刀墊獲得的產量,然後看看有人會如何嘗試預測第三季的產量,我們也有相當大的不確定性。現在您可以看到這些公司在第三季的表現。他們仍然非常強勁。

  • But any time you have new pads, coming online, and they've only been online for 15 to 45 days. There's still a fairly broad range of uncertainty around how those will perform.

    但每當你有新的平板電腦上線時,它們只會上線 15 到 45 天。這些產品的表現仍存在相當廣泛的不確定性。

  • We anticipate that each of those wells will have, some time in the first few months, get -- will run tubing, we'll add the first artificial lift. But even the timing of that is all dependent on well performance. And that ends up driving, on a well-by-well basis, how much production you get in that ensuing quarter.

    我們預計,這些井中的每一口都將在最初幾個月的某個時間,得到——將運行油管,我們將添加第一個人工舉升。但即使是時機也完全取決於良好的表現。這最終會逐井推動你在接下來的季度獲得多少產量。

  • Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

    Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

  • Okay. Maybe then just shifting gears in terms of return on capital philosophy here. Execution on the NCIB has been very strong. We saw the October filing last night, again, impressive stuff. .

    好的。也許那時只是在資本報酬率理念方面進行轉變。 NCIB 的執行力非常強勁。昨晚我們再次看到了十月份的文件,令人印象深刻。 。

  • Just wondering, with respect to the dividend, the yield is a little bit lower than some of the peers today. Your payout ratio and what we're modeling for 2024 is also much lower when you consider the capital program, and that sort of liability or obligation for that dividend.

    只是想知道,就股息而言,收益率比今天的一些同行要低。當您考慮資本計劃以及股息的此類責任或義務時,您的派息率以及我們為 2024 年建模的內容也會低得多。

  • So just wondering about the approach with respect to scaling of that element of the return of capital program, how that kind of plays into your thinking as a shareholder value proposition, and sort of how we can think about the ratability of it going forward.

    因此,我只是想知道擴大資本回報計劃要素的方法,這種方法如何影響您作為股東價值主張的思維,以及我們如何考慮其未來的評級。

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • With the focus specifically on the dividend, Patrick? When you said our payouts are low, presuming you're talking about the simple payout on the dividend...

    特別關注股息,派崔克?當您說我們的派息很低時,假設您正在談論股息的簡單派息...

  • Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

    Patrick Joseph O'Rourke - MD of Institutional Equity Research for Junior and Mid-Cap Exploration and Production

  • When I look at the capital program, plus the dividend that we're anticipating, and understanding that the swing factor in terms of return of capital is that buyback, but just wondering how aggressive you feel you could be with dividend growth here?

    當我查看資本計劃,加上我們預期的股息,並了解資本回報方面的波動因素是回購時,但只是想知道您認為股息成長的動機如何?

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • We'll be balanced in dividend growth. Yes. I mean we're -- I guess, our dividend is lower than some. Certainly, our base is a little bit lower. We don't have a variable construct or a special. And this will sound familiar to you, as we've thought about that construct, we see value in that in the stock. We think we're trading under intrinsic. And we don't see any signals in the market that suggest different structures are being particularly being capitalized in any particular different way. And so we're really comfortable with these kind of valuations leaning into the buyback.

    我們將在股息成長方面保持平衡。是的。我的意思是,我想,我們的股利比某些公司低。當然,我們的基數要低一些。我們沒有變數構造或特殊構造。這對你來說聽起來很熟悉,因為我們已經考慮過這種結構,我們看到了股票的價值。我們認為我們是在內在因素下進行交易的。我們在市場上沒有看到任何訊號表明不同的結構正在以任何特定的不同方式進行資本化。因此,我們對這種傾向回購的估值感到非常滿意。

  • And so we're interested in the dividend going up, and it will sort of go up in the normal course as we reduce the share count. And as you -- though we raised it last quarter -- so we'll keep looking at that. But right now, in the context of how we see the market, we think that share buyback is really pretty attractive. I think we see some of that on the stock performance.

    因此,我們對股息的增加感興趣,隨著我們減少股票數量,股息會在正常情況下上升。正如您一樣——儘管我們在上個季度提出了這個問題——所以我們將繼續關注這一點。但目前,就我們如何看待市場而言,我們認為股票回購確實相當有吸引力。我認為我們在股票表現上看到了一些。

  • For us, that compounding effect of buying stock at these kind of levels is -- it feels like a money machine that's going to pay dividends as it work over time. And I think you probably have noticed, we've sort of been increasing as we continue to delever, increasing that return to shareholders. Now, Jodi indicated, we're thinking next year looks like approximately 70% return on free cash flow. So I think it's all moving in a pretty good direction.

    對我們來說,在這種層面上購買股票的複合效應是——感覺就像一台賺錢機器,隨著時間的推移,它會支付股息。我想你可能已經注意到,隨著我們繼續去槓桿化,我們一直在增加,增加了股東的回報。 Jodi 表示,現在我們認為明年的自由現金流回報率約為 70%。所以我認為一切都在朝著一個非常好的方向發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your next question will be from Jamie Kubik at CIBC.

    (操作員說明)您的下一個問題將由 CIBC 的 Jamie Kubik 提出。

  • James Kubik - Research Analyst

    James Kubik - Research Analyst

  • A bit of a two-pronged question here. So I guess we've seen overall Bakken natural gas volumes continue to climb in recent months. Although depending on the data that you look at it, gas to oil ratios seem to be pretty stable over the last couple of years.

    這裡有兩方面的問題。因此,我想近幾個月來我們看到巴肯天然氣總量繼續攀升。儘管取決於您查看的數據,但過去幾年天然氣與石油的比率似乎相當穩定。

  • Just wondering if you can maybe comment a bit on what you're seeing in your portfolio on that side. And then maybe also discuss what's driven some of the outperformance in NGL production in recent quarters.

    只是想知道您是否可以對您在投資組合中看到的內容發表一些評論。然後也許還可以討論近幾季液化天然氣生產表現優異的原因。

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • And you're looking specifically to our portfolio, you're not talking sort of statewide stuff?

    您專門關注我們的投資組合,您不是在談論全州範圍內的事情嗎?

  • James Kubik - Research Analyst

    James Kubik - Research Analyst

  • Statewide stuff looks like it's -- yes, I mean, with respect to the question on your portfolio specifically, what you've seen sort of gas to oil ratios and NGL production, just what's driven the strength in recent quarters, Ian?

    全州範圍內的情況看起來是這樣的——是的,我的意思是,關於你的投資組合的具體問題,你所看到的天然氣與石油的比率和液化天然氣產量,是什麼推動了最近幾季的強勢,伊恩?

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • Sure. Yes. I guess, Wade, do you want to take both those? But they sort of work...

    當然。是的。我想,韋德,你想把這兩個都拿走嗎?但他們有點工作...

  • Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

    Wade D. Hutchings - Senior VP & COO

  • Yes, happy to. So I would say, in our portfolio, the GORR of our production, the biggest thing that drives that on a quarter-by-quarter basis is the nature of the new pads we're bringing online.

    是的,很高興。所以我想說,在我們的產品組合中,我們生產的 GORR,每季推動這一成長的最大因素是我們在線上推出的新墊的性質。

  • So even within Fort Berthold, there's GORR differences. Some of the big paths we brought online actually in 2022 had a higher GOR ratio. Some of the pads we brought online at Little Knife have a little bit higher GORR.

    因此,即使在貝特霍爾德堡內部,GORR 也存在差異。實際上,我們在 2022 年上線的一些大路徑具有更高的 GOR 比率。我們在 Little Knife 上推出的一些護墊的 GORR 稍高。

  • So that's one of the underlying drivers for that trend for us. But I would say the other key one is we're simply capturing more gas. As you have followed our emissions reduction efforts, and frankly, just our efforts to capture and produce and sell more gas, we're essentially increasing that sales GOR ratio.

    所以這對我們來說是這趨勢的潛在驅動力之一。但我想說的另一個關鍵是我們只是捕獲了更多的天然氣。正如您一直關注我們的減排努力,坦白說,只是我們為捕獲、生產和銷售更多天然氣所做的努力,我們實質上是在提高銷售 GOR 比率。

  • And then that ties into the second question around NGL production. Obviously, we're -- as we capture more gas, we are selling more NGLs as well.

    這又牽涉到有關液化天然氣生產的第二個問題。顯然,當我們捕獲更多天然氣時,我們也會銷售更多液化天然氣。

  • And then I'll come back to my first point to close out the NGL answer. It also varies by the geographic area of where new pads come online. Those 2 fairly significant new pads in Little Knife not only did have a little bit higher GORR than average and enhance higher NGLs, the gas processing plants that we flow those through have a higher NGL yield or realization as well.

    然後我將回到我的第一點來結束 NGL 的答案。它也因新平板上線的地理區域而異。 Little Knife 中的這兩個相當重要的新墊不僅具有比平均水平稍高的 GORR 並提高了更高的 NGL,而且我們流過這些氣體的天然氣加工廠也具有更高的 NGL 產量或實現量。

  • And so that's why you saw that tick up a bit in Q2 and Q3. I think we've tried to be clear. We actually see that come back a little bit closer to our historic average on oil cut for Q4.

    這就是為什麼你看到第二季和第三季略有上升。我想我們已經盡力說清楚了。實際上,我們看到第四季石油減產量稍微接近我們的歷史平均值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, we have no other questions registered. Please proceed.

    目前,我們沒有登記任何其他問題。請繼續。

  • Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

    Ian Charles Dundas - President, CEO & Non-Independent Director

  • All right. Well, we'll leave it there. I appreciate everyone's attention. It's a very busy reporting day. And have a nice, safe weekend. Thank you.

    好的。好吧,我們就把它留在那裡。我感謝大家的關注。這是非常忙碌的報告日。祝您週末愉快、平安。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude the conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    謝謝你,先生。女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議確實結束了。再次感謝您的出席。此時,我們確實要求您斷開線路。