Enerplus Corp (ERF) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Enerplus Q2 2023 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, August 10, 2023. I would now like to turn the conference over to Drew Mair. Please go ahead, Mr. Mair.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Enerplus 2023 年第二季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）此電話於 2023 年 8 月 10 日星期四進行錄音。我現在想將會議轉交給 Drew Mair。請繼續，梅爾先生。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the call. Before we get started, please take note of the advisories located at the end of our second quarter News Release. Our financials have been prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP, our production volumes are reported on a net after deduction of royalty basis and our financial figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您加入通話。在我們開始之前，請注意第二季新聞稿末尾的建議。我們的財務數據是根據美國公認會計準則編制的，我們的產量以扣除特許權使用費後的淨額報告，除非另有說明，否則我們的財務數據以美元為單位。

I'm here this morning with Ian Dundas, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Wade Hutchings, Senior VP and Chief Operating Officer; Jodi Jenson Labrie, Senior VP and Chief Financial Officer; and Garth Doll, VP Marketing. Following our discussion, we will open up the call for questions. With that, I will turn it over to Ian.

今天早上我和我們的總裁兼執行長 Ian Dundas 一起來到這裡。 Wade Hutchings，資深副總裁兼營運長； Jodi Jenson Labrie，資深副總裁兼財務長；和 Garth Doll，行銷副總裁。討論結束後，我們將開放提問。這樣，我就把它交給伊恩。

Thank you, Mr. Mair. Good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results and updated 2023 outlook reflect our strong operating momentum and commitment to returning meaningful free cash flow to shareholders. Operationally, we're seeing excellent well deliverability and solid execution will leave us well positioned to deliver on our targets this year.

謝謝你，梅爾先生。大家，早安。我們的第二季業績和更新的 2023 年展望反映了我們強勁的營運動能以及向股東返還有意義的自由現金流的承諾。在營運方面，我們看到出色的油井產能和紮實的執行力將使我們能夠很好地實現今年的目標。

Our first pads brought online in the Little Knife area are supporting this improved production outlook and further demonstrate the depth and quality of our core Bakken acreage. Wade will dig deeper into the results we're seeing from these pads in his remarks.

我們在 Little Knife 地區上線的第一批墊片支持了生產前景的改善，並進一步展示了我們核心巴肯區塊的深度和品質。韋德將在他的演講中更深入地探討我們從這些墊子中看到的結果。

Based on this performance, we've increased our 2023 production guidance by 1,000 barrels per day at the midpoint with total production now expected to be 94,500 to 98,500 BOE per day. During the first half of the year, we generated $137 million in free cash flow and returned $133 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

基於此表現，我們將 2023 年產量指引中位數提高了 1,000 桶/日，目前總產量預計為每天 94,500 至 98,500 桶油當量。上半年，我們產生了 1.37 億美元的自由現金流，並透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 1.33 億美元。

And in July, we repurchased the remaining shares under our normal course issuer bid authorization, having bought back 10% of our stock over the trailing 12-month period. This was the second consecutive year of repurchasing 10% of our outstanding share count.

7 月，我們根據正常發行人投標授權回購了剩餘股票，在過去 12 個月內回購了 10% 的股票。這是我們連續第二年回購 10% 的流通股。

And as we indicated in our second quarter news release, we will be renewing the NCIB for another 10% of shares outstanding later this month. Given our front half-weighted investment profile with approximately 60% of our capital spending in the first half of the year and the resulting build in production, we expect to generate approximately double free cash flow in the back half of the year based on the current price environment.

正如我們在第二季新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們將在本月稍後為 NCIB 續訂另外 10% 的已發行股票。鑑於我們的前半加權投資狀況（上半年資本支出約佔 60%）以及由此產生的生產建設，我們預計今年下半年將產生大約兩倍的自由現金流（基於當前的情況）。價格環境。

With the strong free cash flow outlook, combined with our low leverage ratio of 0.2x, we plan to continue with a robust return of capital plan through the balance of the year. We expect to return at least 60% of our second half free cash flow to shareholders.

憑藉強勁的自由現金流前景，加上我們 0.2 倍的低槓桿率，我們計劃在今年餘下時間繼續實現強勁的資本回報計劃。我們預計下半年至少 60% 的自由現金流將返還給股東。

And on a full year basis, this is expected to result in over 70% of our 2023 free cash flow being returned based on current market conditions. Share repurchases will continue to comprise the majority of our cash returns, given our view that the intrinsic value of our business is not adequately reflected in our share price.

就全年而言，根據當前市場狀況，預計 2023 年自由現金流的 70% 以上將返還。鑑於我們認為我們業務的內在價值沒有充分反映在我們的股價中，股票回購將繼續構成我們現金回報的大部分。

And therefore, the buyback continues to be accretive to shareholder value. A significant reduction in our share count over the last 2 years has meaningfully enhanced our per share growth. Our production per share increased by 24% compared to the second quarter of 2021. And over the same period, our net debt decreased by almost 80%. Although we anticipate the majority of our cash returns will be via the share buyback, we have also increased our quarterly dividend by 9%, effective with the September payment.

因此，回購繼續增加股東價值。過去兩年我們股份數量的大幅減少極大地提高了我們的每股成長。與 2021 年第二季相比，我們的每股產量增加了 24%。同期，我們的淨債務減少了近 80%。儘管我們預計大部分現金回報將透過股票回購實現，但我們也將季度股利提高了 9%，從 9 月支付開始生效。

In summary, our outlook is strong. We're on track to deliver another year of solid execution and well performance from our Bakken development program. We have an attractive free cash flow profile, competitive return on capital strategy, and our financial position remains rock solid. So I'll leave it there and pass the call to Wade for an operational update.

總而言之，我們的前景樂觀。我們的巴肯開發計劃預計將在新的一年中實現紮實的執行和良好的業績。我們擁有有吸引力的自由現金流狀況、具有競爭力的資本回報策略，我們的財務狀況仍然堅如磐石。因此，我將把它留在那裡，然後將電話轉給韋德，以獲取最新的營運情況。

Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone. North Dakota production averaged approximately 69,000 BOE per day in the quarter, which was up 3% compared to Q1. We continue to run 2 drilling rigs in North Dakota and drilled 17 gross operated wells during the quarter. It was a very active quarter relative to completion and onstream activity.

謝謝伊恩，大家早安。本季北達科他州平均產量約為每天 69,000 桶油當量，較第一季成長 3%。我們繼續在北達科他州營運 2 座鑽機，本季共鑽探 17 口井。相對於竣工和投產活動而言，這是一個非常活躍的季度。

By the end of the quarter, we brought 23 gross operated wells online, which will help set up a strong ramp in volumes in the back half of the year. Notably, we brought our first 2 pads on production in the Little Knife area. We have a slide showing each pad's performance in our updated investor presentation.

到本季末，我們已上線 23 口總作業井，這將有助於在今年下半年實現產量的強勁成長。值得注意的是，我們在 Little Knife 區域生產了首批 2 個墊片。我們在更新的投資者簡報中用一張幻燈片展示了每個墊子的表現。

At our Hay Draw pad, we have 6 wells producing that have averaged over 100,000 barrels of oil per well in 70 days on production. At our Bice pad, we have 3 wells online, which have produced about 80,000 barrels of oil on average per well through 40 days on production.

在我們的 Hay Draw 基地，我們有 6 口油井正在生產，70 天內每口油井的平均產量超過 100,000 桶。在我們的 Bice pad，我們有 3 口井上線，在生產 40 天內平均每口井生產了約 80,000 桶石油。

These are great results and continue to support our view our Little Knife inventory is very high quality. Although we do expect variability as we further develop the Little Knife area, we are pleased to see strong early production results from these first 2 pads.

這些都是很好的結果，並繼續支持我們的觀點，我們的 Little Knife 庫存非常高品質。儘管我們確實預計隨著我們進一步開發 Little Knife 區域會出現變化，但我們很高興看到前 2 個墊的早期生產結果強勁。

We continue to ground our view of ultimate recovery with a unit-by-unit recovery factor model while also seeking to optimize the early production performance of each well. We also completed 4 refrac operations during the quarter. As previously noted, these refrac candidates in our portfolio are producing wells we acquired in 2021 in Dunn County which were completed several years prior to that. These wells in the units they are in have relatively low recoveries, and we think there is potential to increase these with a modern restimulation.

我們繼續透過逐個單位採收率模型來鞏固我們對最終採收率的看法，同時也尋求優化每口井的早期生產性能。本季我們也完成了 4 次重複壓裂操作。如前所述，我們投資組合中的這些候選重複壓裂正在生產我們於 2021 年在鄧恩縣收購的油井，這些油井在此之前幾年就已完工。這些井所在單元的採收率相對較低，我們認為透過現代再增產有可能提高採收率。

Three of the 4 wells have been online for more than 30 days post refrac and have averaged a gross peak 30-day rate per well of over 500 barrels of oil per day and over 800 BOE per day on a 3-stream basis. This compares to a prefrac average rate of 30 to 40 barrels of oil per day. These initial refrac results are positive and in line with our expectations.

4 口井中的 3 口在重複壓裂後已上線超過 30 天，每口井 30 天的平均總峰值產量為每天超過 500 桶石油，按 3 條流計算每天產量超過 800 BOE。相較之下，壓裂前的平均產量為每天 30 至 40 桶石油。這些初步的折射結果是正面的，符合我們的預期。

And while we monitor the longer-term performance, we are evaluating plans for additional projects next year. In terms of third quarter activity, we expect to bring 14 to 17 net operated wells on production in North Dakota. This activity, combined with our second quarter completions is projected to drive liquids growth of approximately 10% in the third quarter compared to Q2.

在我們監控長期績效的同時，我們正在評估明年其他專案的計畫。就第三季的活動而言，我們預計北達科他州將有 14 至 17 口淨作業井投入生產。這項活動，加上我們第二季的完工量，預計將推動第三季液體業務較第二季成長約 10%。

Moving on to the cost environment. Overall, the market feels more balanced today than the tightness we saw last year at this time. Broadly, our well cost performance this year has tracked expectations. Our total well cost estimate coming into the year was $7.8 million for a 2-mile lateral, up approximately 10% year-over-year.

轉向成本環境。總體而言，今天的市場感覺比去年此時的緊張程度更加平衡。整體而言，我們今年的成本表現符合預期。我們預計今年 2 英里支管井的總成本為 780 萬美元，年增約 10%。

We're effectively on pace to realize $7.8 million or just under that on average for the year based on the current cost environment. While we will stay away from making any definitive deflationary calls about 2024 at this point, we do think the market is in a more stable place today with potential tailwinds into 2024.

根據目前的成本環境，我們今年的平均目標是實現 780 萬美元或略低於這個數字。雖然我們目前不會對 2024 年做出任何明確的通貨緊縮預測，但我們確實認為目前市場處於更穩定的狀態，並可能在 2024 年出現順風車。

We do continue to capture lower casing costs each quarter. Turning to our nonoperated Marcellus position. As expected, we saw quarterly volumes decline sequentially by 14% to 154 million cubic feet per day, driven by the limited capital activity this year.

我們確實每季都會繼續降低外殼成本。轉向我們非手術的馬塞勒斯位置。正如預期的那樣，由於今年資本活動有限，我們看到季度成交量環比下降 14%，至每天 1.54 億立方英尺。

As a reminder, we're allocating just 2% to 3% of our 2023 capital budget to the Marcellus. Lastly, I'll touch on our emissions performance this year. As highlighted with the release of our ESG report in June, we're driving quite meaningful reductions to our GHG emissions intensity through flaring reductions and facility optimization.

提醒一下，我們只將 2023 年資本預算的 2% 到 3% 分配給 Marcellus。最後，我將談談我們今年的排放績效。正如我們 6 月發布的 ESG 報告所強調的那樣，我們正在透過減少火炬燃燒和優化設施來大幅降低溫室氣體排放強度。

We expect to achieve a 30% reduction to our GHG emissions intensity this year compared to last year or compared to 2021 and believe that we can achieve our 2030 reduction target as early as next year. We'll provide a progress update along with an updated long-term target in due course. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jodi.

我們預計今年溫室氣體排放強度將比去年或 2021 年減少 30%，並相信最快明年就能實現 2030 年的減排目標。我們將適時提供最新進展以及更新的長期目標。這樣，我會將電話轉給喬迪。

Thanks, Wade. I'm going to start with our price realizations. In the Bakken, our realized oil price differential was $0.71 per barrel below WTI in the quarter. This was modestly weaker than our prior estimate and reflected lower prices for crude oil delivered into markets in both North Dakota and the U.S. Gulf Coast due to weak U.S. refining margins early in the quarter.

謝謝，韋德。我將從我們的價格實現開始。在巴肯，本季我們的實際油價差比 WTI 低 0.71 美元/桶。這略低於我們先前的預期，反映出由於本季度初美國煉油利潤疲軟，導致北達科他州和美國墨西哥灣沿岸市場的原油價格下降。

However, U.S. refinery utilization recovered later in the second quarter supported by resilient domestic product demand. And therefore, on a full year basis, we expect our average Bakken oil price realization to be at par with WTI. In the Marcellus, our realized natural gas price differentials was $0.68 per Mcf below NYMEX largely in line with our expectations, and we continue to expect a full year differential of $0.75 per Mcf below NYMEX.

然而，在國內產品需求強勁的支撐下，美國煉油廠利用率在第二季稍後有所恢復。因此，從全年來看，我們預計巴肯石油平均實現價格將與 WTI 持平。在馬塞勒斯，我們實現的天然氣價差為每千立方英尺低於 NYMEX 0.68 美元，基本上符合我們的預期，我們繼續預計全年的價差為每千立方英尺低於 NYMEX 0.75 美元。

Our NGL realizations weakened in the second quarter, averaging just about $15 per barrel and include a significant propane component. Benchmark propane prices decreased considerably during the second quarter due to the strong U.S. domestic production growth that drove inventory levels well above the 5-year average.

我們的 NGL 實現量在第二季度有所減弱，平均每桶僅約 15 美元左右，其中包括大量丙烷成分。由於美國國內產量強勁成長，庫存水準遠高於五年平均水平，第二季丙烷基準價格大幅下跌。

Ultimately, we generated $197 million of adjusted funds flow in the quarter. With capital spending of $181 million, our free cash flow was $16 million. Notwithstanding this lower free cash flow, our return of capital in the second quarter was $67 million, including $55 million of share repurchases and a quarterly dividend of $12 million.

最終，我們在本季產生了 1.97 億美元的調整後資金流。資本支出為 1.81 億美元，我們的自由現金流為 1,600 萬美元。儘管自由現金流較低，但我們第二季的資本回報為 6,700 萬美元，其中包括 5,500 萬美元的股票回購和 1,200 萬美元的季度股息。

This resulted from accelerating a portion of our second half free cash flow into the first half of the year in order to level load our return on capital throughout the year. However, as Ian mentioned, we have increased our return on capital for the year and plan to return at least 60% of our second half free cash flow, resulting in over 70% of free cash flow return during 2023 on an annual basis.

這是因為我們將下半年的部分自由現金流加速到了上半年，以平衡全年的資本回報率。然而，正如 Ian 所提到的，我們提高了今年的資本回報率，並計劃返還下半年至少 60% 的自由現金流，從而使 2023 年自由現金流的年度回報率超過 70%。

Current tax expense came in at $3.5 million in the second quarter, and we've lowered our full year current tax expense guidance to 3% to 4% of adjusted funds flow before tax to reflect the lower commodity pricing environment so far in 2023 compared to previous estimates.

第二季的當期稅費為350 萬美元，我們將全年當期稅費指引下調至稅前調整後資金流的3% 至4%，以反映2023 年迄今較低的商品定價環境（與去年同期相比）。之前的估計。

Lastly, we narrowed our capital spending range by $10 million to $510 million to $550 million. Previously, it was $500 million to $550 million. A significant factor influencing our capital range is our Bakken non-op activity, and we've seen a fairly material amount show up so far this year.

最後，我們將資本支出範圍縮小了 1,000 萬美元至 5.1 億美元至 5.5 億美元。此前，這一數字為5億至5.5億美元。影響我們資本範圍的一個重要因素是我們的巴肯非經營活動，今年到目前為止，我們已經看到相當大的金額。

Ultimately, with the non-op activity levels we are seeing, we don't think it's likely that we will hit the bottom of our capital range at $500 million. So we lifted the bottom to $510 million. I'll leave it there, and we'll turn the call over to the operator and open it up for questions.

最終，根據我們所看到的非營運活動水平，我們認為我們的資本範圍不太可能達到 5 億美元的底部。因此我們將底部提高到 5.1 億美元。我會把它留在那裡，我們會將電話轉給接線員並打開它以供提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jeoffrey Lambujon with TPH & Co.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 TPH & Co. 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

My first one, maybe first few are just from the really strong performance at Little Knife. I know you all spoken to wells in the program there this year being highly competitive against what we've seen from you all in recent years from plug-and-perf , but just looking at the outperformance relative to the type well in your slide deck really stands out.

我的第一個，也許是前幾個，都來自於 Little Knife 的強勁表​​現。我知道今年專案中的油井與我們近年來從即插即用中看到的產品相比具有很強的競爭力，但只是看看相對於幻燈片中的類型油井的優異性能真的很突出。

So I was hoping to ask a few on this one. On the type curve and performance specifically, can you give us some context as to what was used to formulate that type well shown there in the charts, whether that's mainly reflecting productivity that you've seen from offset operators through the years there, if there's any risk in your adjustments to think about?

所以我希望就這個問題問一些。具體來說，在類型曲線和性能方面，您能否向我們提供一些背景信息，說明圖表中顯示的用於製定該類型的內容，這是否主要反映了您多年來從膠印運營商那裡看到的生產力，如果有的話您的調整中需要考慮哪些風險？

And then in terms of the performance, are there any factors that you point to as key drivers behind the productivity that you're showing there that looks to sustain there as well as continue to produce. And then I've got a follow-up on a long-term plan.

然後就績效而言，您是否指出任何因素是您所展示的生產力背後的關鍵驅動因素，這些因素看起來可以維持並繼續生產。然後我有一個長期計劃的後續行動。

Thanks for the question, Jeoff. Maybe I'll hand that over to Wade to sort of give people some context on what type curve came from and other key drivers?

謝謝你的提問，傑夫。也許我會把它交給韋德，讓人們了解什麼類型的曲線來自以及其他關鍵驅動因素？

Thanks for the question, Jeoff. So that type curve that we've had out there not long after the acquisition has been based on the offset producing wells that mostly are to the east of our acreage position. So -- we certainly had a set of producing wells on the acreage that we purchase, but most of those wells have been online for 5-plus years.

謝謝你的提問，傑夫。因此，我們在收購後不久就得出的曲線是基於主要位於我們面積位置以東的補償生產井。因此，我們在購買的土地上當然擁有一組生產井，但其中大多數井已經上線五年多了。

And so those weren't really the anchor for the type curve, but they certainly had a bit of an influence. So again, type curve based on analysis of a broad set of wells in that greater Little Knife area and certainly is an aggregate of those. Some wells obviously produced a lot more than that, some less than that. So we didn't really feel like it was a heavily risk type curve. We thought it was fairly representative.

因此，這些並不是真正的類型曲線的錨點，但它們確實有一點影響。再次強調，曲線是基於對更大的小刀地區的大量井的分析，當然也是這些井的總和。有些井的產量顯然比這個多得多，有些則比這個少。所以我們並不真的覺得這是一條高風險類型的曲線。我們認為這是相當有代表性的。

And even though the early results from these 2 pads look a lot stronger, time will tell what the ultimate shape of the well performance is. What's clear though, is that the early production performance has been better than what we thought it would be better than, say, the average offset well used in the type curve. So we're clearly quite encouraged by that the spacing that we've used in these first 2 pads is in the -- is at the upper end of our 6 to 9 well range.

儘管這兩個平台的早期結果看起來要強得多，但時間會告訴我們油井性能的最終形狀是什麼。但顯而易見的是，早期的生產性能比我們想像的要好，比如說，比類型曲線中使用的平均偏移量更好。因此，我們顯然對前 2 個焊盤中使用的間距處於 6 至 9 孔範圍的上限感到非常鼓舞。

Both of these pads are spaced in the 9 to 10 well range. And so we're encouraged by the early performance of both the Middle Bakken and Three Forks wells that we've drilled in these units. In terms of key drivers, ultimately, we would say that the rock properties are really great quality in the area of the 2 pads we drilled.

這兩個墊的間距都在 9 到 10 孔範圍內。因此，我們對在這些裝置中鑽探的 Middle Bakken 井和 Three Forks 井的早期表現感到鼓舞。就關鍵驅動因素而言，最終我們會說，我們鑽探的 2 個平台區域的岩石特性確實非常優質。

We think that's fairly representative of that part of greater kind of northern half of our Little Knife area. In terms of the stimulation approach, there's nothing materially new or novel there relative to what we've been doing this year in Fort Berthold. Our completion design continues to evolve over each year. But broadly speaking, we applied our standard completion recipe standard kind of flow back recipe to these wells. And as you said, quite encouraged by the early performance.

我們認為這相當代表了我們小刀地區北半部的那部分。就刺激方法而言，與我們今年在貝特霍爾德堡所做的事情相比，沒有什麼實質的新的或新穎的東西。我們的完井設計每年都在不斷發展。但從廣義上講，我們將標準完井配方標準類型的回流配方應用於這些井。正如你所說，早期的表現讓我深受鼓舞。

Okay. Perfect. That's great color. And then on the long-term plan, can you speak to what the 5-year outlook assumes on productivity out of Little Knife if the type wells shown in the deck is what's embedded in the outlook there after changes year-to-year and the guide to be mindful of?

好的。完美的。那顏色真棒。然後，關於長期計劃，如果甲板上顯示的類型井是在逐年變化後嵌入到前景中的內容，您能否談談小刀的 5 年前景對生產力的假設？指南要注意什麼？

And then a somewhat of a follow-up to what you just mentioned on changes over time, variability over time. Can you comment on your outlook for productivity as far as the near-term program in the Little Knife and just really the running room of wells that could have this level of performance?

然後是您剛才提到的隨時間變化、隨時間變化的後續行動。您能否評論一下您對 Little Knife 近期計劃的生產力展望以及能夠達到這種性能水平的油井運行空間？

Yes. So the underpinnings of that 5-year plan, you should think about those type curves that we've shown in the appendix of our decks as the basis for that long-range plan. Now we update those on a fairly continuous basis based on well productivity from our own operations and from offset operators.

是的。因此，作為該五年計劃的基礎，您應該考慮我們在套牌附錄中顯示的那些類型曲線，作為該長期計劃的基礎。現在，我們根據我們自己的營運和補償營運商的油井生產力，相當連續地更新這些內容。

But Today, those type curves would form the basis for that 5-year outlook. In terms of Little Knife activity over the next 5 years, you should expect that it will continue to be an important part of our program each year. You've mentioned kind of competitiveness with Fort Berthold in your first question. As you can see from our type curves and even from our recent performance, we think the acreage we have in Little Knife competes on par quite strongly with the best of our best acreage in Fort Berthold.

但今天，這些類型的曲線將構成五年前景的基礎。就未來 5 年的 Little Knife 活動而言，您應該期望它將繼續成為我們每年計劃的重要組成部分。您在第一個問題中提到了與貝特霍爾德堡的競爭。正如您從我們的類型曲線甚至從我們最近的表現中看到的那樣，我們認為我們在 Little Knife 擁有的面積與我們在 Fort Berthold 的最佳面積中的佼佼者競爭相當激烈。

Your next question comes from Patrick O'Rourke with ATB Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 ATB Capital 的 Patrick O'Rourke。

Congratulations on the dividend increase and a solid quarter overall. Just kind of wanted to ask a couple of questions here. The first with respect to sort of view on the optimal capital structure and leverage here. Obviously, net debt went up a little bit in the quarter. But I would infer from only, call it, 70% payout ratio, it comes down over the next few quarters. You're under a quarter turn debt to cash flow. So sort of where are you comfortable at current commodity prices? Where do you think it's optimal? And then how does that play into the potential for further return of capital beyond 70% going forward? I know you've talked about some of the puts and takes on that in the past.

恭喜股息增加和整體季度表現穩健。只是想在這裡問幾個問題。第一個是關於最佳資本結構和槓桿的看法。顯然，本季淨債務略有上升。但我只能從 70% 的支付率中推斷，它在接下來的幾季會下降。你的債務與現金流的比率只有四分之一。那麼，您對目前的商品價格感到滿意嗎？你認為哪裡是最佳的？那麼，這對未來進一步超過 70% 的資本報酬率有何影響呢？我知道您過去曾談論過一些關於此問題的看法和看法。

Patrick. So we'll talk about optimal capital structure. I think it's a general rule, less debt is better than more debt. Having a clean balance sheet, if you start looking at the flexibility, the optionality -- and what it means the resilience of the business. I think a whole bunch of things point in that direction.

派崔克.所以我們將討論最佳資本結構。我認為這是一條普遍規則，債務越少越好。如果你開始專注於靈活性、選擇性，以及它對企業的彈性意味著什麼，那麼就擁有一個乾淨的資產負債表。我認為很多事情都指向這個方向。

The last few years, sometimes people run hotter balance sheets when debt's been inexpensive. Debt isn't free now. So I think people are paying more attention to that. So for us, very comfortable continuing to pay down debt, comfortable going debt-free. You saw that last quarter.

過去幾年，有時當債務成本低廉時，人們的資產負債表會變得更熱。現在債務還不是免費的。所以我認為人們對此更加關注。所以對我們來說，繼續償還債務非常輕鬆，無債務也非常輕鬆。你上個季度就看到了這一點。

That strong balance sheet gave us flexibility to actually use the balance sheet a little bit to -- on a very temporary basis, support the current capital plan. Now obviously, that's not a long-term plan. When we think about our return of capital framework, sustainability is the key word -- the keyword that underpins it.

強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠靈活地實際使用資產負債表——在非常臨時的基礎上——支持當前的資本計劃。顯然，這不是一個長期計劃。當我們考慮資本回報框架時，永續性是關鍵字——支撐它的關鍵字。

And so if we get to a position where we're debt free, could that directionally put higher upward pressure on return to the capital plans, it could possibly -- we won't have any debt to pay down, as an example, as a computing capital allocation choice. But the business is going to dictate how much capital we can sustainably return have a sustainable business and continue to grow the business.

因此，如果我們達到無債務狀態，這是否會直接對資本計畫回報施加更高的上行壓力，有可能——我們將沒有任何債務需要償還，例如，計算資本分配選擇。但業務將決定我們能夠可持續地回報多少資本來擁有可持續的業務並繼續發展業務。

So hopefully, that gives you a framework there. We chose 60% originally because it was something that sort of made sense to us where we could generate free cash flow and pay down debt and has worked really quite well through multiple cycles.

希望這能為您提供一個框架。我們最初選擇 60% 是因為這對我們來說有意義，我們可以產生自由現金流並償還債務，並且在多個週期中效果非常好。

Obviously, if we end up in a more stope price environment and costs remain somewhat in check, you could see upward pressure on those payouts or opportunities on payout.

顯然，如果我們最終處於更穩定的價格環境中，而成本仍然受到一定程度的控制，您可能會看到這些支出或支出機會的上行壓力。

Okay. That's terrific. And maybe kind of moving over to the asset side of the equities. I think you guys did a great job on packing sort of what's going on at Little Knife. Maybe shifting over to those refracs. Curious with respect to those wells, how they would be currently booked? And what sort of -- I know it's early days, but how the refrac would look from a reserve bookings perspective? Would it be an acceleration of EUR -- or would it be incremental? And how that sort of evolves in your 5-year plan as well?

好的。真了不起。也許會轉向股票的資產面。我認為你們在整理 Little Knife 發生的事情方面做得很好。也許會轉向那些折射。對這些井感到好奇，目前如何預訂它們？我知道現在還為時過早，但是從儲備預訂的角度來看，重新壓裂會是什麼樣子呢？歐元會加速升值，還是增量升值？您的五年計畫中又是如何發展的？

Yes. I'll hand that to Wade to give you some color on how we're thinking about refracs and/or potentially just redrilling some of these units. Wade?

是的。我會將其交給韋德，讓您了解我們如何考慮折射和/或可能只是重新鑽探其中一些單元。韋德？

Yes. Thanks, Patrick. In terms of reserves, these wells that we've refracked certainly were in our system as producing wells. But the reality is, they look like they have fairly low recoveries relative to other wells. And then even when you zoom out to the unit they're in, that whole unit looks like it's pre-refrac going to recover quite a bit less than what a normal unit would, hence, the motivation to put some more capital in those units.

是的。謝謝，派崔克。就儲量而言，我們重新壓裂的這些井肯定在我們的系統中作為生產井。但現實是，與其他井相比，它們的採收率似乎相當低。然後，即使當你縮小到它們所在的單元時，整個單元看起來像是預折壓後的恢復量也比正常單元要少得多，因此，有動力在這些單元上投入更多資本。

Today, we're testing refracs. It may be in some units, we decide to put more wells in those units. But in terms of your reserve booking question, once we get a little bit more run time on these wells, any of the incremental recovery that we think we've achieved, that will essentially be a new reserve booking.

今天，我們正在測試折射。可能在某些單元中，我們決定在這些單元中打更多的井。但就您的儲備預訂問題而言，一旦我們在這些井上獲得更多的運行時間，我們認為我們已經實現的任何增量恢復，這基本上將是一個新的儲備預訂。

And then in terms of just a little bit more color, today, the early performance has been solid. The wells have a reasonable initial production rates. We've been pleased to see the rates have hung in there, at least over the first 30 to 60 days. It's really important, though, for us to monitor those for another 3 to 4 months. And that will really determine how truly economically competitive they will be. It's a pretty high bar for them to compete with the economics of a new well.

然後就顏色而言，今天早期的表現一直很穩定。這些井具有合理的初始產量。我們很高興看到費率一直保持不變，至少在前 30 到 60 天內是如此。不過，對我們來說，再監測 3 到 4 個月非常重要。這將真正決定他們的經濟競爭力。對他們來說，與新井的經濟效益競爭是一個相當高的門檻。

But we still see the value in these as we leave them in our operational plan each year, provides some flexibility around how we run our pressure pumping crews and execute our annual program.

但我們仍然看到了這些的價值，因為我們將它們留在每年的營運計劃中，為我們如何運行壓力泵組和執行我們的年度計劃提供了一些靈活性。

Okay. Great. I might be the only person in the world that cares about these sorts of things. But would -- given the wells or PDP, would they go into the bookings as extensions or as technical revisions on the positive side?

好的。偉大的。我可能是世界上唯一關心這類事情的人。但是，考慮到油井或 PDP，它們是否會作為積極方面的延期或技術修訂而進入預訂？

I would -- I'm not sure. I mean you've got to actually add the capital that you spent to them. And so yes. We'd have to get back to you on a specific technical answer to that question.

我會——我不確定。我的意思是你必須實際添加你花在他們身上的資本。所以是的。我們必須就該問題的具體技術答案回覆您。

Your next question comes from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Greg Pardy。

Maybe just staying on the operating side of things. If we pivot over to Williams County, I'm just interested in what your level of activity and plans are there. And then I guess the other question is just the suitability of 3 milers up in Williams. Any color there would be great.

也許只是停留在操作方面。如果我們轉向威廉斯縣，我只是對您在那裡的活動水平和計劃感興趣。然後我想另一個問題是威廉斯是否適合 3 英里以上。任何顏色都會很棒。

Wade, do you want to give Greg a bit of perspective on how we're thinking about the area?

韋德，你想向格雷格介紹我們如何看待這個地區嗎？

Yes. In terms of activity, Greg, we actually have recently completed and brought on stream 5 wells in a pad on the eastern edge of our Williams County acreage. So some of those are included in the Q2 count and some of them in the Q3 count. So we'll be able to give you an update on the performance of that pad next quarter. That's the only operated on streams for the year planned in Williams County.

是的。格雷格，就活動而言，我們最近實際上已經在威廉斯縣東部邊緣的一塊土地上完成並投產了 5 口井。因此，其中一些包含在第二季計數中，有些包含在第三季計數中。因此，我們將能夠在下個季度向您提供有關該墊性能的最新資訊。這是威廉斯縣計劃今年唯一在溪流上運作的項目。

I think that ratio that you're seeing kind of one pad for this year. You can think about that as potentially a proxy for what the next 4 or 5 years look like. We see that Eastern Williams area as if you actually dive into the type curves we've got noted in the appendix of our decks actually compete fairly well from an economic perspective with for Berthold and Little Knife. So I think you will continue to see us allocate some capital there.

我認為你今年看到的這個比例是一個墊子。您可以將其視為未來 4 或 5 年的潛在指標。我們看到東部威廉斯地區，就好像你真的深入研究了我們在套牌附錄中註意到的類型曲線一樣，從經濟角度來看，實際上與伯特霍爾德和小刀競爭得相當好。因此，我認為您將繼續看到我們在那裡分配一些資本。

One of the real important keys to that area in terms of unlocking more and more of the acreage as you move into kind of the central part of our acreage and then even to the western edge of our acreage, there is likely going to be 3-mile technology . We're fairly confident that we can execute that kind of a technical program. What we've been working on is working through unit conversion, permitting to be able to change the previous original development in that area, which was mostly 2-mile development into 3-mile development. So yes, stay tuned on the progress we're able to make there.

該區域真正重要的關鍵之一是，當您進入我們面積的中心部分，甚至到我們面積的西部邊緣時，解鎖越來越多的面積，可能會有 3-英里技術。我們非常有信心能夠執行這種技術計劃。我們一直致力於透過單位轉換進行工作，從而能夠將該地區之前的原始開發項目（主要是 2 英里開發項目）更改為 3 英里開發項目。所以，是的，請繼續關注我們在這方面取得的進展。

Okay. And then just to be clear then, the 5 wells that you would have brought on in the Eastern edge, those are just all standard 2 milers.

好的。然後需要澄清的是，您在東部邊緣打的 5 口井，這些井都是標準的 2 英里。

That is correct.

那是對的。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Jamie Kubik with CIBC.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Jamie Kubik。

Maybe just staying on the asset side of things here. Just can you shed a bit of light on the declines seen in the Marcellus in the quarter? I appreciate that it's a non-operated asset, but can you just add some color around what's happening there on the decline side?

也許只是停留在資產方面。您能否透露一下 Marcellus 在本季出現的下滑情況？我很欣賞它是一項非營運資產，但您能否為下降方面所發生的情況添加一些色彩？

Yes, Jamie, it's -- I'd say as per plan, as per forecast, very little capital being spent on the asset, which is we're talking 2% to 3% of our total capital. So it's rounding to 0, very, very few on streams coming on. So we're seeing the decline profile off of the on streams came on late in the year. As we think about the profile of the assets over the year, we think that the declines can start to moderate. -- and sort of flatten out towards the end of the year. When does it grow again? I guess as per gas price, I guess, that will sort of dictate the activity that the operators driving out there.

是的，傑米，我想說的是，按照計劃，按照預測，用於該資產的資本很少，我們所說的資本僅佔總資本的 2% 到 3%。所以它四捨五入到 0，在即將到來的流中非常非常少。因此，我們看到今年年底直播量下降。當我們考慮一年來的資產狀況時，我們認為跌幅可能會開始放緩。 ——到年底就會趨於平緩。什麼時候再長出來？我想，根據汽油價格，我想，這將在某種程度上決定營運商在那裡進行的活動。

But I don't know if there's any more color you're looking for, but it's sort of as per expectations now.

但我不知道您是否還需要更多顏色，但現在有點符合預期。

Okay. No, that's helpful. And then you do talk about variability at Little Knife in the Bakken the mapping contours that you have in your slide decks would point to possibly weaker well results as you drill further south.

好的。不，這很有幫助。然後你確實談到了巴肯小刀的變異性，當你向南鑽探時，你在幻燈片中的測繪輪廓將表明可能會出現較弱的井結果。

But do you expect that, that holds based on what you've seen so far, just given the strength in the northern part of the acreage? Can you just talk about how you expect it to vary as you delineate for the parts of it?

但是，根據您迄今為止所看到的情況，考慮到該地區北部地區的實力，您是否認為這種情況成立？你能談談你期望它在你描繪它的各個部分時會如何改變嗎？

Yes, we do you want to provide a little more color commentary there.

是的，我們希望您能在那裡提供更多色彩評論。

Yes. The most important geologic trend from north to south in Little Knife, Jamie, is that in the northern half, approximately, it's fairly clear that the Little Knife or that the Three Forks reservoir interval is not only quite productive, but also makes sense from an overall unit development perspective to include in the original development.

是的。傑米（Jamie）認為，小刀地區從北到南最重要的地質趨勢是，在北半部，很明顯，小刀地區或三岔口儲層區間不僅富有生產力，而且從整體單位發展的視角要包含在原來的發展中。

So I think you'll see if you look at offset operators you see our operations will include Three Forks locations in each of those units we develop. What's not as clear is as you move to the far south end of the acreage is, is it the optimal development approach to include Three Forks or not. So that's the biggest technical question still out there.

因此，我認為如果您查看偏移操作員，您會發現我們的操作將在我們開發的每個單元中包括三個叉子位置。不太清楚的是，當您搬到該地區的最南端時，是否包括三叉是否是最佳開發方法。所以這仍然是最大的技術問題。

In terms of actual well productivity, as we track, offset production right along the eastern edge of our Little Knife acreage, we still see very strong Middle Bakken well productivity and Three Forks well productivity all the way through kind of the central portion of our acreage and the bit of well control that we have on the Far South still looks solid, strong.

就實際油井生產力而言，當我們追蹤小刀區域東邊緣的抵消產量時，我們仍然看到非常強勁的中巴肯井生產力和三叉井生產力一直貫穿我們區域的中心部分我們在遠南地區的控制力看起來仍然穩固、強大。

So I don't know that we have a model that says the Middle Bakken will degrade in productivity, but we probably don't have as much well control at the far south end as we do at the north end.

所以我不知道我們是否有一個模型表明中巴肯河的生產力會下降，但我們可能沒有像在北端那樣對最南端進行良好的控制。

Okay. That's good color. And then maybe just on the capital allocation side of things, debt reduction or debt levels at the range that they're at right now and then greater than 70% of free cash being returned to shareholders, as you guys mentioned. But how are you thinking about M&A? And potentially adding additional inventory into your business? And can you just outline how you're thinking about that?

好的。這顏色真好啊然後也許只是在資本配置方面，債務減少或債務水準在目前的範圍內，然後超過 70% 的自由現金返還給股東，正如你們所提到的。但您如何看待併購？並可能為您的業務增加額外的庫存？您能概述一下您對此的看法嗎？

Yes. Thanks for that question, Jamie. On some levels, we're always thinking about it. We've got capability and financial capacity that gives us a lot of flexibility to add to the portfolio. When you look at the portfolio, there's no real holes in it. We've got ample inventory and everything we're thinking about bringing in, we think about how it's going to compete with what we've already captured. So the bar is probably higher than it has been in other years relative to that question.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題，傑米。在某些層面上，我們一直在思考這個問題。我們的能力和財務能力使我們能夠靈活地添加到投資組合中。當你查看投資組合時，你會發現其中沒有真正的漏洞。我們擁有充足的庫存和我們正在考慮引入的所有東西，我們考慮它將如何與我們已經捕獲的東西競爭。因此，與這個問題相關的標準可能比其他年份要高。

So for us, anything in North Dakota we pay attention to at the core, we're looking for accretive activity that's going to bolster our [NAV] and build out that business and make money for people. So how do that in the context of this moment in time in the market. There haven't been a lot of deals out in North Dakota. There have been some. We would characterize as a lot of those as being relatively competitive. People that don't own Bakken typically want to own more of it or want to get in there.

因此，對我們來說，在北達科他州，我們關注的核心問題是，我們正在尋找能夠增強我們的[資產淨值]並發展該業務並為人們賺錢的增值活動。那麼在當前的市場背景下如何做到這一點呢？北達科他州還沒有很多交易。有一些。我們認為其中許多都具有相對競爭力。沒有擁有巴肯的人通常想擁有更多或想進入那裡。

It's a place where you can get some really good low-risk black oil. And so I guess I'll sort of leave it with a final comment. The bar is higher than it's been before for us to do activity, but we're certainly in a good position if we saw something trade that can make our business better and make money for people.

在這裡您可以獲得一些非常好的低風險黑油。所以我想我會留下最後的評論。我們開展活動的門檻比以前更高，但如果我們看到一些交易可以讓我們的業務變得更好並為人們賺錢，我們肯定處於有利地位。

At this time, there are no further questions. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題了。請繼續您的結束語。

Brad, well, we appreciate everyone calling in on this last couple of weeks in the summer. Have a great rest of your week, and maybe we'll see you in the fall. Thanks, everybody.

布拉德，好吧，我們感謝大家在夏天的最後幾週打電話來。祝你本週好好休息，也許我們會在秋天見到你。謝謝大家。

This concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。謝謝。