Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 營收為 3.43 億美元,較 Q3 下滑,毛利率 46.1%(Q3 為 49.2%),非 GAAP EPS 為 $0.71(Q3 為 $0.90)
    • Q1 2026 營收指引為 2.7 億至 3 億美元,優於前次預期(原預估約 2.5 億),毛利率指引 42-45%(非 GAAP)
    • 市場反應未於逐字稿中揭露
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 美國電價上升、利率有望下調,推動太陽能與儲能需求
      • 新型預付租賃(prepaid lease)與多元融資方案,降低消費者進入門檻
      • IQ Battery 10C 與即將推出的第五代電池,提升能量密度、降低成本,並擴大安裝基礎
      • IQ9 GaN 微型逆變器進軍 480V 商用市場,開拓新 TAM
      • 歐洲(特別是荷蘭、法國)電池改裝需求受政策與市場結構變化帶動
      • VPP(虛擬電廠)合作與新產品(如 EV 雙向充電器)拓展應用場景
    • 風險:
      • 歐洲市場需求疲弱、價格競爭激烈,壓縮毛利
      • 全球多國關稅(reciprocal tariff)影響,Q1 仍有約 5% 毛利率衝擊
      • 中國以外電池供應成本較高(約高 20-25%),短期內難見明顯降價
      • 新產品推廣與市場教育需時,部分地區(如美國)新型逆變器滲透速度較慢
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q4 出貨 155 萬台微型逆變器、150 MWh 電池
    • Q4 美國與國際營收占比分別為 89% 與 11%
    • Q4 美國產品 sell-through 較 Q3 電池成長 27%,微型逆變器成長 21%
    • Q4 全球客服 NPS 79(Q3 為 77),平均來電等待 1.6 分鐘
    • Q4 自美國工廠出貨 1.31 百萬台微型逆變器、51.1 MWh 電池,符合國內含量規範
  4. 財務預測
    • Q1 2026 營收預估 2.7 億至 3 億美元,含 3,500 萬美元 safe harbor 營收
    • Q1 2026 非 GAAP 毛利率預估 42-45%,含約 5% 關稅影響
    • Q4 2025 CapEx 為 970 萬美元,主要投入美國製造與研發設備
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q2 2026 營收與毛利率展望?
      A: 預期 Q2 營收將較 Q1 回升,具體幅度尚難量化。三大推動力包括美國電價上升、新型預付租賃融資、利率有望下調。公司自身也積極推動電池、商用逆變器、歐洲電池改裝、EV 充電器與新一代產品上市。
    • Q: 關稅(reciprocal tariff)對毛利率影響及抵消進度?
      A: Q1 關稅影響約 5%,分布於微型逆變器、電池與配件。全球多國皆有關稅,無法完全規避。抵消方式主要靠新產品(IQ9、第五代電池)創新與成本結構優化,預期能逐步改善毛利率。
    • Q: IQ9 商用逆變器初期訂單與市場規模展望?
      A: Q1 訂單約 5-10 百萬美元,產品具高可靠性、合規與國內含量優勢。預期三年內可在商用市場取得與住宅類似的市占率。
    • Q: 預付租賃(prepaid lease)推廣進度與市場覆蓋?
      A: 目前仍在四州試點階段,需完整驗證流程與體驗,若順利將加速擴展,目標盡快全美推廣。預期能補足 25D 稅收抵免消失後的需求缺口。
    • Q: 美國與歐洲電池庫存狀況?
      A: 美國與海外通路庫存均處於健康水準,美國甚至低於正常 8-10 週水位,未見庫存壓力。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Enphase Energy's fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎閱讀 Enphase Energy 2025 年第四季財務業績報告。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Zach Freedman. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我將把會議交給扎克·弗里德曼。請繼續,先生。

  • Zach Freedman - Head, Investor Relations

    Zach Freedman - Head, Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Enphase Energy's fourth-quarter 2025 results. On today's call are Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Mandy Yang, our Chief Financial Officer; and Raghu Belur, our Chief Products Officer. After the market closed today, Enphase issued a press release announcing the results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025.

    下午好,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議,共同探討 Enphase Energy 2025 年第四季的業績。今天參加電話會議的有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Badri Kothandaraman;我們的財務長 Mandy Yang;以及我們的首席產品長 Raghu Belur。今天市場收盤後,Enphase 發布新聞稿,公佈了截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日的第四季業績。

  • During this conference call, Enphase management will make forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements related to our expected future financial performance; market trends; the capabilities of our technology and products and the benefits to homeowners and installers, our operations, including manufacturing, customer service, and supply and demand; anticipated growth in existing and new markets, including the TPO market, the timing of new product introductions, and enhancements to existing products; and regulatory tax, tariff, and supply chain matters.

    在本次電話會議中,Enphase 管理層將發表前瞻性聲明,包括但不限於與我們預期未來財務業績相關的聲明;市場趨勢;我們的技術和產品的能力以及對房主和安裝人員的益處;我們的營運,包括製造、客戶服務以及供需;現有市場和新市場(包括 TPO 市場)的預期增長;新產品推出的時間以及現有產品的改進時間和稅收事項;

  • These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, and our actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from these expectations. For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and 10-Qs filed with the SEC. We caution you not to place any undue reliance on forward-looking statements and undertake no duty or obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or changes in expectations.

    這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性,我們的實際結果和事件發生的時間可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關風險和不確定性的更完整討論,請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格。我們提醒您不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述,並且我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或預期變更而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Also, please note that financial measures used on this call are expressed on a non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release furnished with the SEC on Form 8-K, which can also be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    另外,請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中使用的財務指標均以非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 為基礎,並且已進行調整以排除某些費用。我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格獲利報告中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標的調節表,該報告也可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • Now, I'd like to introduce Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Badri?

    現在,我謹向大家介紹我們的總裁兼執行長巴德里·科坦達拉曼。巴德里?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today to discuss our fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. We had a good quarter. We reported quarterly revenue of $343.3 million, shipped 1.55 million microinverters and 150-megawatt hours of batteries, and generated free cash flow of $37.8 million. Our Q4 revenue included $2.3 million of safe harbor revenue. US consumers pulled forward purchases ahead of the Section 25D tax credit deadline, helping us exit 2025 with the lean channel.

    下午好,感謝各位今天蒞臨我們會議室,共同探討我們2025年第四季的財務表現。我們這個季度表現不錯。我們公佈的季度收入為 3.433 億美元,出貨 155 萬台微型逆變器和 150 兆瓦時的電池,並產生了 3,780 萬美元的自由現金流。我們第四季的收入包括 230 萬美元的安全港收入。美國消費者在第 25D 條款稅收抵免截止日期前提前購買商品,幫助我們以精簡管道結束 2025 年。

  • For Q4, we delivered 46% gross margin, above the high end of our guidance range, 23% operating expenses, and 23% operating income, all as a percentage of revenue on a non-GAAP basis. Mandy will go into our financials later in the call.

    第四季度,我們實現了 46% 的毛利率,高於我們預期範圍的上限;營運費用為 23%,營運收入為 23%(以上均為非 GAAP 收入百分比)。Mandy稍後會在電話會議中詳細介紹我們的財務狀況。

  • Our global customer service NPS was 79% in Q4 compared to 77% in Q3. Average call wait time was 1.6 minutes. We piloted an AI assistant in the Enphase app in Q4 and plan to roll it out in Q1 to help customers manage their systems intuitively. We also plan to pilot an AI assistant for installers in Q1 to help them manage their fleet and identify upgrade opportunities.

    第四季我們的全球客戶服務淨推薦值 (NPS) 為 79%,而第三季為 77%。平均通話等待時間為 1.6 分鐘。我們在第四季度在 Enphase 應用程式中試用了 AI 助手,並計劃在第一季全面推廣,以協助客戶直覺地管理系統。我們還計劃在第一季試行一款針對安裝人員的人工智慧助手,以幫助他們管理設備並發現升級機會。

  • Let's talk about operations. In Q4, we shipped approximately 1.31 million microinverters from our Texas and South Carolina manufacturing facilities in booked associated Section 45X production tax credits. These domestically made microinverters helped residential leads and PPA providers as well as commercial asset owners qualify for the 10% domestic content ITC adder.

    我們來談談營運方面的問題。第四季度,我們從德州和南卡羅來納州的製造工廠出貨了約 131 萬個微型逆變器,並已計入相關的第 45X 節生產稅收抵免。這些國產微型逆變器幫助住宅用戶和購電協議 (PPA) 提供者以及商業資產所有者獲得了 10% 的國產化投資稅收抵免 (ITC) 補貼。

  • In Q4, we shipped 51.1 megawatt hours of IQ Batteries from our Texas manufacturing facility, meeting applicable domestic content requirements and helping lease PPA customers qualify for ITC bonuses. We continue to differentiate through our ability to deliver domestic content and meet FEOC requirements as regulatory standards tighten. Also, we expect to receive our first non-China battery cells in Q1 and remain on track to scale non-China cell supply into battery production in the first half of 2026.

    第四季度,我們從德州的製造工廠出貨了 51.1 兆瓦時的 IQ 電池,滿足了適用的國內含量要求,並協助租賃 PPA 客戶獲得 ITC 獎勵。隨著監管標準的日益嚴格,我們憑藉提供本土內容和滿足FEOC要求的能力,繼續保持差異化優勢。此外,我們預計在第一季收到首批非中國產電池,並預計在 2026 年上半年將非中國產電池的供應規模擴大到電池生產。

  • Let's now cover the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q4 was 89% and 11%, respectively. In the US, our revenue decreased 13% in Q4 compared to Q3, primarily due to safe harbor revenue of $20.3 million compared to $70.9 million in Q3. The overall sell-through of our products increased 21% in Q4 compared to Q3 to the highest level in more than two years. The strong demand trends that we saw at the beginning of Q4 continued till the end of the year, driven by increased solar and battery installations ahead of the expiring Section 25D tax credit.

    現在我們來介紹一下各個地區。第四季度,我們美國市場和國際市場的營收佔比分別為 89% 和 11%。在美國,我們的第四季營收比第三季下降了 13%,主要是由於安全港收入為 2,030 萬美元,而第三季為 7,090 萬美元。與第三季相比,我們產品的整體銷售量在第四季度成長了 21%,達到兩年多來的最高水準。第四季初出現的強勁需求趨勢一直持續到年底,這主要是由於在 25D 條款稅收抵免到期前,太陽能和電池的安裝量增加所致。

  • In Europe, our revenue decreased by 29% in Q4 compared to Q3, while our sell-through decreased by 23%. The overall business environment across the region is still challenging. We are staying disciplined in managing the channel and focusing on targeted growth areas for 2026. I will provide some additional color on the key markets in Europe.

    在歐洲,我們的第四季營收比第三季下降了 29%,而我們的銷售額下降了 23%。該地區的整體商業環境依然充滿挑戰。我們將繼續保持通路管理的嚴謹性,並專注於2026年的目標成長領域。我將對歐洲主要市場進行一些補充說明。

  • In the Netherlands, solar demand remained soft in Q4, but we are making steady progress towards a large battery retrofit opportunity driven by structural changes in the market. Rising solar export penalties and the planned phaseout of net metering by the end of 2026 are shifting economics decisively towards self-consumption, strengthening the case for batteries.

    在荷蘭,第四季太陽能需求依然疲軟,但隨著市場結構性變化,我們正穩步推動大規模電池改造計畫。不斷上漲的太陽能出口罰款以及計劃在 2026 年底前逐步取消淨計量電價,正在使經濟形勢果斷地轉向自用,從而加強了電池的必要性。

  • With an installed base of approximately 475,000 Enphase residential solar systems, we estimate a total opportunity of roughly $2 billion for batteries. We are seeing early traction for -- from targeted homeowner outreach, including homeowner events and direct marketing, and are expanding partnerships with retail energy providers that offer compelling VPP economics. With continued rollout of software capabilities like PowerMatch and the launch of our fifth-generation battery later this year, we believe we are very well-positioned to lead the battery transition in Netherlands.

    Enphase 住宅太陽能係統已安裝約 475,000 套,我們估計電池市場總機會約為 20 億美元。我們看到,透過有針對性的房主推廣活動(包括房主活動和直接行銷),以及與提供具有吸引力的虛擬電廠經濟效益的零售能源供應商擴大合作,已經取得了初步成效。隨著 PowerMatch 等軟體功能的不斷推出,以及今年稍後第五代電池的上市,我們相信我們已做好充分準備,引領荷蘭的電池轉型。

  • In France, reduction in feed-in tariffs are shifting residential solar economics towards self-consumption, increasing the interest in batteries, particularly for new installations. With approximately 375,000 Enphase residential solar systems installed in France, the retrofit opportunity is more modest than in the Netherlands due to fixed energy contracts, but overall, battery adoption is still gaining traction. New business models including battery leasing are emerging, and we expect the battery demand in France to build steadily through the year, supported by anticipated increases in utility rates and evolving dynamic tariffs.

    在法國,上網電價補貼的降低正在將住宅太陽能的經濟效益轉向自用,從而增加了人們對電池的興趣,特別是對於新安裝的電池。由於能源合約固定,法國大約安裝了 375,000 套 Enphase 住宅太陽能係統,改造機會比荷蘭要少,但總體而言,電池的普及仍在不斷增加。包括電池租賃在內的新商業模式正在湧現,我們預計在公用事業費率預期上漲和動態電價不斷演變的支持下,法國的電池需求將在今年穩步增長。

  • Across Europe, competition remains intense, and pricing pressure is high as installers adapt to a tougher demand environment. We are responding by controlling costs within our current products and aligning pricing to market realities, including our microinverter price reductions which we implemented across Europe in November.

    在整個歐洲,競爭仍然激烈,由於安裝商需要適應更嚴峻的需求環境,價格壓力也很大。我們正在透過控制現有產品的成本並使定價與市場實際情況保持一致來應對,包括我們在 11 月於歐洲實施的微型逆變器降價措施。

  • At the same time, we are investing in next-generation products very strongly, both IQ9 microinverters and our fifth-generation battery platform. We expect to deliver structural cost improvements in these products, which enable attractive pricing and sustain healthy gross margins. Our focus remains on supporting our installers and competing effectively as the market evolves.

    同時,我們正在大力投資下一代產品,包括 IQ9 微型逆變器和我們的第五代電池平台。我們期望在這些產品中實現結構性成本改善,從而實現有吸引力的定價並維持健康的毛利率。我們將繼續專注於支援我們的安裝人員,並在市場不斷發展變化的過程中有效參與競爭。

  • In Australia, we see a meaningful battery growth opportunity supported by a mature rooftop solar base and accelerating customer interest in self-consumption, resilience, and VPP. The market is installing larger, more capable storage systems to take advantage of current incentives, and installers are increasingly asking for solutions that are simple to size, expand, and commission. With our fifth-generation system expected later this year, we believe our stackable, scalable AC-coupled architecture is well aligned with what installers want and what homeowners increasingly value: flexible capacity today with the ability to add more over time.

    在澳大利亞,我們看到了電池行業巨大的成長機遇,這得益於成熟的屋頂太陽能基礎以及消費者對自用、韌性和虛擬電廠日益增長的興趣。為了利用目前的激勵措施,市場正在安裝更大、更強大的儲存系統,而安裝人員也越來越需要易於確定尺寸、擴充和調試的解決方案。預計今年稍後我們將推出第五代系統,我們相信我們可堆疊、可擴展的交流耦合架構與安裝人員的需求以及房主日益重視的需求非常契合:既能滿足當前的靈活容量需求,又能隨著時間的推移增加容量。

  • Let's now discuss Q1 outlook. During last quarter's call, we shared a view of Q1 revenue to be around $250 million. Today, we are providing Q1 revenue guidance of $270 million to $300 million. We are approximately 90% booked to the midpoint of our revenue guidance. We continue to believe Q1 marks the low point for underlying demand, with improvement expected through 2026, particularly in the second half.

    現在讓我們來討論一下第一季的展望。在上個季度的電話會議上,我們預測第一季的營收約為 2.5 億美元。今天,我們給出的第一季營收預期為 2.7 億美元至 3 億美元。我們目前的預訂量已達到預期收入目標的中位數約 90%。我們仍然認為第一季是潛在需求的低谷,預計到 2026 年將有所改善,尤其是在下半年。

  • Installer sentiment is also improving as higher utility rates strengthen the customer value proposition, including in several Northeast and Midwest markets that have seen double-digit residential electricity price increases over the last year. The feedback on prepaid lease offerings is also encouraging, giving installers yet another effective tool to drive solar and battery adoption this year.

    隨著公用事業費率上漲,客戶價值主張得到加強,安裝商的信心也在改善,包括在過去一年中住宅電價出現兩位數增長的東北部和中西部幾個市場。預付費租賃方案的回饋也令人鼓舞,為安裝商提供了今年推動太陽能和電池普及的另一個有效工具。

  • Let's talk about financing. Enphase is well-positioned to support all major TPOs today. In Q4, we announced two TPO orders totaling $123 million, including $55 million under the 5% safe harbor method and $68 million under the physical work test method. We collaborate with TPUs on tax equity support, domestic content, and FEOC-compliant offerings, O&M services through Enphase Care, and an integrated workflow through Solargraf for design, proposal, and permitting while also partnering on innovative financing structures.

    我們來談談融資問題。Enphase 目前已做好充分準備,為所有主要的第三方採購組織 (TPO) 提供支援。第四季度,我們宣布了兩項 TPO 訂單,總額達 1.23 億美元,其中包括根據 5% 安全港方法獲得的 5500 萬美元訂單和根據實際工作測試方法獲得的 6800 萬美元訂單。我們與 TPU 合作,提供稅收公平支援、國內含量和符合 FEOC 標準的產品,透過 Enphase Care 提供營運和維護服務,並透過 Solargraf 提供設計、提案和許可的整合工作流程,同時也合作開發創新的融資結構。

  • We continue to see prepaid leases as an attractive option, which give homeowners a lower upfront cost today and the option to own the system after five years. In the structure, the TPO owns the system initially and claims the 48D tax credit, then share that value with the homeowner through a prepaid lease or low monthly payments when paired with the loan. The result is a lower effective cost for the homeowner and economics that look much closer to what customers were used to when the 30% Section 25D tax credit was available.

    我們仍然認為預付費租賃是一個有吸引力的選擇,它能讓房主今天支付較低的前期費用,並在五年後選擇擁有該系統。在這種結構中,TPO 最初擁有該系統併申請 48D 稅收抵免,然後透過預付租賃或與貸款配套的低月付款與房主分享該價值。結果是,房主實際成本降低,經濟效益也更接近客戶在享受 30% 第 25D 節稅收抵免時所習慣的水平。

  • We are supporting a TPO-led prepaid lease program that is being fully tested with a loan partner as well as a distribution partner. The program, which uses Enphase equipment, is currently in pilot across four states, with approximately 40 installers. We expect a broader rollout to happen upon completing the pilot successfully and validating the customer experience, installer execution, and financing performance at scale. We expect to share more as the program matures in the coming months.

    我們正在支持一項由第三方採購組織 (TPO) 主導的預付租賃計劃,該計劃正在與貸款合作夥伴和分銷合作夥伴進行全面測試。該計畫使用 Enphase 設備,目前正在四個州進行試點,約有 40 名安裝人員。我們預計在試點成功完成,並大規模驗證客戶體驗、安裝人員執行情況和融資績效後,將進行更廣泛的推廣。隨著專案在未來幾個月的逐步完善,我們預計將分享更多資訊。

  • Let's cover product, starting with IQ Batteries. Our fourth-generation IQ Battery 10C continues to ramp in the US, delivering a smaller footprint, higher energy density, and a simpler installation process enabled by the IQ Meter Collar. The Collar is now approved by 52 US utilities and growing, serving approximately 30 million customer accounts. We believe this represents the broadest utility approval footprint of any major battery providers today. In California, the Meter Collar is approved by all three major investor-owned utilities.

    讓我們來介紹產品,首先從 IQ 電池開始。我們的第四代 IQ Battery 10C 在美國持續擴大規模,借助 IQ Meter Collar,它具有更小的體積、更高的能量密度和更簡單的安裝過程。目前,該項圈已獲得 52 家美國公用事業公司的批准,並且還在不斷增長,服務約 3,000 萬個客戶帳戶。我們認為這代表了目前所有主要電池供應商中最廣泛的公用事業批准覆蓋範圍。在加州,所有三家主要的投資者擁有的公用事業公司都批准了電錶套環。

  • We also launched PowerMatch in Q4, a software-enabled technology that dynamically matches the IQ Battery output to real-time home demand, increasing usable energy, extending battery life, and improving performance by up to 40%. Unlike hybrid systems that push all power through a single large inverter, PowerMatch activates only the microinverters that are needed, reducing the losses at low power consumption so customers get more usable energy from the same battery capacity.

    我們在第四季度也推出了 PowerMatch,這是一項軟體技術,可動態地將 IQ 電池的輸出與即時家庭需求相匹配,從而增加可用能量,延長電池壽命,並將效能提高高達 40%。與將所有電力都透過單一大型逆變器輸送的混合系統不同,PowerMatch 只啟動所需的微型逆變器,從而減少低功率消耗時的損耗,使客戶能夠從相同的電池容量獲得更多可用能量。

  • Let's now cover our fifth-generation battery. We are making significant progress on this battery. It is built from stackable 5-kilowatt hour modular blocks and will scale up to 20-kilowatt hours in the US and up to 30-kilowatt hours in other regions. The design targets roughly 50% higher energy density than the fourth-generation battery at about 40% lower cost.

    現在我們來介紹第五代電池。我們在電池研發方面取得了重大進展。它由可堆疊的 5 千瓦時模組化模組構成,在美國可擴展至 20 千瓦時,在其他地區可擴展至 30 千瓦時。設計的目標是在成本降低約 40% 的情況下,能量密度比第四代電池高出約 50%。

  • When paired with PowerMatch, we believe this platform will offer a compelling combination of performance, flexibility and value for installers and homeowners. We expect to start pilots in the third quarter of 2026 and start shipping in the fourth quarter.

    我們相信,當與 PowerMatch 結合使用時,該平台將為安裝人員和房主提供性能、靈活性和價值的強大組合。我們預計將於 2026 年第三季開始試點,並於第四季開始出貨。

  • We are making strong progress in partnering with retail energy providers and VPP operators across the globe that are seeking flexible distributed capacity. Through these programs, homeowners can earn attractive incentives from that energy provider for installing and enrolling Enphase batteries. In Q4, we added several programs, the notable being a home battery leasing program with GMP in Vermont and eligibility under San Diego Community Power Solar Battery Savings Program. These partnerships can drive meaningful battery volumes, and we are targeting many more additional VPP partnerships this year.

    我們在與全球尋求靈活分散式容量的零售能源供應商和虛擬電廠營運商建立合作關係方面取得了顯著進展。透過這些計劃,房主可以透過安裝和註冊 Enphase 電池,從能源供應商那裡獲得誘人的獎勵。第四季度,我們新增了幾個項目,其中最值得一提的是與佛蒙特州 GMP 合作推出的家用電池租賃項目,以及聖地牙哥社區電力太陽能電池節能計劃的資格。這些合作關係可以顯著提升電池產量,我們今年的目標是達成更多虛擬電廠合作關係。

  • Let's come to microinverters. In December, we began shipping the IQ9-3P commercial microinverter built on our GaN-based power conversion architecture. IQ9 is a major step forward for Enphase, expanding us into 480-volt, three-phase commercial systems in the US for the first time and represents an approximately $400 million total addressable market.

    接下來我們來談談微型逆變器。12 月,我們開始出貨基於我們 GaN 基功率轉換架構的 IQ9-3P 商用微型逆變器。IQ9 是 Enphase 向前邁出的重要一步,首次將我們的業務拓展到美國 480 伏特三相商業系統領域,代表著約 4 億美元的潛在市場。

  • The demand is encouraging, with more than 50,000 microinverters ordered for Q1, and early feedback confirms the market need for reliability, FEOC compliance and domestic content that IQ9 delivers. We expect to introduce IQ9 for the global residential markets in the first quarter of 2026 and the higher powered 548-watt version for both residential and commercial markets in the third quarter.

    市場需求令人鼓舞,第一季已訂購超過 5 萬台微型逆變器,早期回饋證實了市場對 IQ9 所具備的可靠性、FEOC 合規性和國產化率的需求。我們預計將於 2026 年第一季將全球住宅市場推出 IQ9,並於第三季為住宅和商業市場推出功率更高的 548 瓦版本。

  • More broadly, our IQ -- our GaN-based microinverter platform gives us a step change in speed, efficiency, and controllability, capabilities that matter as the grid and large electrified loads increasingly demand fast response times and load shaping. We are increasing our R&D investment in these areas to extend our core capabilities to address these demanding use cases. More to come here as we make progress.

    更廣泛地說,我們的 IQ——我們基於 GaN 的微型逆變器平台,在速度、效率和可控性方面實現了飛躍式發展,這些能力非常重要,因為電網和大型電氣化負載越來越需要快速響應時間和負載整形。我們正在加大對這些領域的研發投入,以擴展我們的核心能力,從而應對這些嚴苛的應用情境。隨著我們取得進展,後續將有更多消息發布。

  • Let's cover EV charging. In December, we began shipping our new IQ EV Charger 2 to customers across the US. This charger supports a fast level 2 charging up to 19.2 kilowatts on 240 volt service and up to 22.1 kilowatts where 277 volts is available. It also works as a standalone charger or fully integrated with Enphase solar and battery systems. The charger is also available in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, with additional availability planned for 2026.

    我們來聊聊電動車充電。12 月,我們開始向美國各地的客戶出貨新款 IQ EV Charger 2。此充電器支援 2 級快速充電,在 240 伏特電壓下最高可達 19.2 千瓦,在 277 伏特電壓下最高可達 22.1 千瓦。它既可以作為獨立充電器使用,也可以與 Enphase 太陽能和電池系統完全整合。該充電器目前已在歐洲、澳洲、紐西蘭和加拿大上市,並計劃於 2026 年在其他地區上市。

  • Let me share an update on our IQ Bidirectional EV Charger built on our GaN power platform, engineered to work seamlessly with modern 800-volt DC/EV architectures. It is a concrete example of our ability to move power efficiently between grid-facing AC and 800-volt DC backbone and to do so bidirectionally with tight control and protection.

    讓我來分享一下我們基於GaN功率平台打造的IQ雙向電動車充電器的最新進展,該充電器經過精心設計,可與現代800伏直流/電動車架構無縫配合使用。這是我們在面向電網的交流電和 800 伏特直流主幹網之間高效傳輸電力,並能以嚴格的控制和保護進行雙向傳輸的一個具體例子。

  • We continue to target initial availability in the fourth quarter of 2026, starting with limited deployments as we complete required certifications, utility coordination, and vehicle compatibility validation. The product is compelling because it pass simply with the IQ Meter Collar in the US and a backup switch in Europe to enable a streamlined configuration for seamless home backup, which is V2H, and VPP participation, which is V2G. We are also in active discussions with multiple auto OEMs on partnerships and will share more as those discussions mature.

    我們仍計劃在 2026 年第四季實現初步交付,在完成必要的認證、公用事業協調和車輛相容性驗證後,將首先進行有限部署。該產品之所以引人注目,是因為它在美國可以輕鬆與 IQ Meter 項圈配合使用,在歐洲則可與備用開關配合使用,從而實現簡化的配置,以實現無縫的家庭備份(V2H)和 VPP 參與(V2G)。我們目前也正與多家汽車OEM廠商積極洽談合作事宜,隨著洽談的深入,我們將分享更多資訊。

  • Let's cover Solargraf, our all-in-one design and proposal platform built for installers. We continue to deliver meaningful upgrades, including fully customizable proposals with in-line editing, battery-only proposals, and racking integration to generate a complete bill of materials. We are also expanding AI capabilities, including one touch, design and automation, and lighten integration to help installers reduce operational overhead. Looking ahead, we are adding support for commercial system designs to align with our expanding commercial products. Solargraf remains a core installer enablement tool, especially as TPO integration accelerates.

    讓我們來了解 Solargraf,這是我們為安裝商打造的一體化設計和方案平台。我們持續推出有意義的升級,包括可完全客製化的方案(支援線上編輯)、僅電池方案以及貨架集成,以產生完整的物料清單。我們還在擴展人工智慧功能,包括一鍵式操作、設計和自動化以及簡化集成,以幫助安裝人員減少營運成本。展望未來,我們將增加對商業系統設計的支持,以配合我們不斷擴展的商業產品。Solargraf 仍然是安裝商的核心賦能工具,尤其是在 TPO 整合加速的情況下。

  • Let me conclude. We are executing well through a challenging period, and our focus on innovation, quality, and customer service continues to support healthy margins and good market share in US residential solar. We are now extending these strengths into commercial solar, where we believe we can build a meaningful business.

    最後,我來總結一下。我們正努力克服挑戰,保持良好的營運狀態,並繼續專注於創新、品質和客戶服務,從而在美國住宅太陽能領域保持健康的利潤率和良好的市場份額。我們現在正將這些優勢擴展到商業太陽能領域,我們相信我們可以在那裡建立一個有意義的業務。

  • We expect the underlying demand to stabilize from current levels with improvements developing as several tailwinds build. Rising electricity costs are making energy affordability a priority for households. New financing options are expanding how consumers can buy solar, and easing interest rates can further improve affordability.

    我們預期潛在需求將從目前的水平趨於穩定,隨著多項利好因素的積累,需求將逐步改善。不斷上漲的電價使得能源價格成為家庭關注的焦點。新的融資選擇正在拓寬消費者購買太陽能產品的方式,而利率的降低可以進一步提高其可負擔性。

  • In 2026, we are continuing to evolve from a single-product and end-market company into a broader technology platform that can apply our power electronics and energy management strength to significantly larger markets. The transition began five years ago, with our entry into residential batteries and is now accelerating with our expansion into commercial solar and our planned entry into commercial batteries, bidirectionally recharging, and additional adjacencies in the year ahead. As the world's power needs grow larger and more complex, we believe Enphase brings a differentiated best-in-class power management foundation to meet them.

    到 2026 年,我們將繼續從單一產品和終端市場公司發展成為更廣泛的技術平台,將我們在電力電子和能源管理方面的優勢應用於更大的市場。這項轉型始於五年前,當時我們進入了住宅電池領域,現在隨著我們擴展到商業太陽能領域,以及我們計劃在未來一年進入商業電池、雙向充電和其他相關領域,這一轉型正在加速。隨著世界電力需求日益增長且日益複雜,我們相信 Enphase 提供差異化的、一流的電源管理基礎來滿足這些需求。

  • We remain laser-focused on the near-term revenue levers that we can conclude. Number one, accelerating IQ Battery 10C growth. Number two, scaling IQ9 GaN microinverters to expand our 480-volt 3-phase commercial footprint. Number three, unlocking battery retrofits across Netherlands and France. Number four, ramping IQ EV Charger 2 while preparing for bidirectional EV charging later in 2026. Number five, launching our fifth-generation residential battery, along with IQ9 microinverters to materially lower system costs and strengthen solar economics.

    我們將繼續全力以赴,專注於近期能夠實現的營收成長點。第一,加速 IQ Battery 10C 的成長。第二,擴大 IQ9 GaN 微型逆變器的規模,以擴大我們的 480 伏特 3 相商業應用範圍。第三,在荷蘭和法國推廣電池改造。第四,推進 IQ EV Charger 2 的建設,同時為 2026 年晚些時候的雙向電動車充電做好準備。第五,推出我們的第五代家用電池,以及 IQ9 微型逆變器,以大幅降低系統成本並增強太陽能的經濟性。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Mandy for a further review of our financials. Mandy?

    接下來,我將把電話交給曼迪,讓她進一步審查我們的財務狀況。曼迪?

  • Mandy Yang - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mandy Yang - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Badri, and good afternoon, everyone. I will provide more details related to our fourth quarter of 2025 financial results, as well as our business outlook for the first quarter of 2026. We have provided reconciliations of these non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release posted today, which can also be found in the IR section of our website.

    謝謝巴德里,大家下午好。我將提供有關我們 2025 年第四季財務業績的更多細節,以及我們對 2026 年第一季的業務展望。我們在今天發布的獲利報告中提供了這些非GAAP財務指標與GAAP財務指標的調節表,該報告也可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • Total revenue for Q4 was $343.3 million. We shipped approximately 682.6 megawatts DC microinverters and 150.1 megawatt hours of IQ Batteries in the quarter. Q4 revenue included $20.3 million of safe harbor revenue. As a reminder, we define safe harbor revenue as any sales made to customers who plan to install their inventory over more than a year.

    第四季總營收為3.433億美元。本季我們出貨了約 682.6 兆瓦直流微型逆變器和 150.1 兆瓦時的 IQ 電池。第四季營收包含2,030萬美元的安全港收入。再次提醒,我們將安全港收入定義為向計劃在一年以上時間內安裝庫存的客戶進行的任何銷售。

  • Non-GAAP gross margin for Q4 was 46.1% compared to 49.2% in Q3. GAAP gross margin was 44.3% for Q4 compared to 47.8% in Q3. Reciprocal tariffs impacted our gross margins by 5.1% in Q4. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $78.8 million for Q4 compared to $78.5 million for Q3. GAAP operating expenses were $129.6 million for Q4 compared to $130.1 million for Q3. GAAP operating expenses for Q4 included $48.6 million of stock-based compensation expenses and $2.9 million of acquisition-related amortization, offset by $600,000 of restructuring and asset impairment benefit.

    第四季非GAAP毛利率為46.1%,第三季為49.2%。第四季 GAAP 毛利率為 44.3%,第三季為 47.8%。第四季度,相互關稅對我們的毛利率產生了 5.1% 的影響。第四季非GAAP營運費用為7,880萬美元,第三季為7,850萬美元。第四季 GAAP 營運費用為 1.296 億美元,而第三季為 1.301 億美元。第四季 GAAP 營運費用包括 4,860 萬美元的股票選擇權費用和 290 萬美元的收購相關攤銷,但被 60 萬美元的重組和資產減損收益所抵銷。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, income from operations for Q4 was $79.4 million compared to $123.4 million for Q3. On a GAAP basis, income from operations was $22.4 million for Q4 compared to $66.2 million for Q3.

    以非GAAP準則計算,第四季營業收入為7,940萬美元,而第三季為1.234億美元。以美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 計算,第四季營業收入為 2,240 萬美元,而第三季為 6,620 萬美元。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, net income for Q4 was $93.4 million compared to $117.3 million for Q3. This resulted in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.71 for Q4 compared to $0.90 for Q3. GAAP net income for Q4 was $38.7 million compared to $66.6 million for Q3. This resulted in GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.29 for Q4 compared to $0.50 for Q3.

    以非GAAP準則計算,第四季淨收入為9,340萬美元,而第三季為1.173億美元。這導致第四季非GAAP稀釋後每股收益為0.71美元,而第三季為0.90美元。第四季GAAP淨利為3870萬美元,第三季為6660萬美元。這導致第四季GAAP稀釋後每股收益為0.29美元,而第三季為0.50美元。

  • We exited Q4 with a total cash, hedge equivalents, and marketable securities balance of $1.51 billion compared to $1.48 billion at the end of Q3. The five-year convertible notes we raised in 2021 are coming due on March 1, 2026, and respect to stakeholder principal amount of $632.5 million in maturity with our cash on hand.

    截至第四季末,我們的現金、對沖等價物和有價證券總餘額為 15.1 億美元,而第三季末為 14.8 億美元。我們在 2021 年發行的五年可轉換債券將於 2026 年 3 月 1 日到期,到期時將償還 6.325 億美元的股東本金,我們手頭上有現金。

  • As of December 31, 2025, we have approximately $337 million of production tax credit, or PTC receivable on our balance sheet, net of income taxes payable. $109 million is related to US main microinverters shipped to customers in 2024 and $228 million is for shipments made in 2025. As we elected direct pay for 2024, the net PTC will be refunded by the IRS through our completed 2024 tax return. We have limited visibility to when we will receive 2024's $109 million refund from the IRS due to its extended processing timelines. We are evaluating our options to get paid sooner for our 2025 PTC.

    截至2025年12月31日,我們的資產負債表上約有3.37億美元的生產稅收抵免(PTC)應收款,並已扣除應付所得稅。其中1.09億美元與2024年向美國客戶交付的主要微型逆變器相關,2.28億美元與2025年的出貨量相關。由於我們選擇了 2024 年的直接支付方式,淨 PTC 將透過我們完成的 2024 年報稅表由美國國稅局退還。由於美國國稅局的處理時間較長,我們目前尚不清楚何時才能收到 2024 年的 1.09 億美元退稅款。我們正在評估各種方案,以便儘早收到 2025 年 PTC 的款項。

  • As part of our anti-dilution plan, we spent approximately $1.4 million by withholding shares to cover taxes for employees divesting in Q4 that reduced the diluted shares by 41,767 shares. We did not repurchase our common stock in the quarter because we are prioritizing the most disciplined use of our cash, including preparing for the $632.5 million of debt maturing next month and preserving flexibility for strategic investments and potential acquisition opportunities. We have approximately $269 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization, and we remain confident in our long-term business outlook.

    作為反稀釋計畫的一部分,我們透過扣留股票的方式,花費了約 140 萬美元來支付員工在第四季度撤資的稅款,從而減少了 41,767 股稀釋股份。本季我們沒有回購普通股,因為我們優先考慮以最審慎的方式使用現金,包括為下個月到期的 6.325 億美元債務做準備,並保持靈活性以進行策略性投資和潛在的收購機會。我們目前還有大約 2.69 億美元的股票回購授權額度,我們對公司的長期業務前景仍然充滿信心。

  • In Q4, we generated $47.6 million in cash flow from operations and $37.8 million in free cash flow. Capital expenditure was $9.7 million for Q4 compared to $8 million for Q3. This increase was primarily due to continued investment in our US manufacturing and R&D equipment.

    第四季度,我們透過經營活動產生了 4,760 萬美元的現金流,自由現金流為 3,780 萬美元。第四季資本支出為970萬美元,而第三季為800萬美元。這一增長主要是由於我們對美國製造和研發設備的持續投資。

  • Now, let's discuss our outlook for the first quarter of 2026. We expect our revenue for Q1 to be within a range of $270 million to $300 million, which includes treatments of 100- to 120-megawatt hours of IQ Batteries. The revenue guidance includes approximately $35 million of safe harbor revenue.

    現在,讓我們來討論一下我們對 2026 年第一季的展望。我們預計第一季的營收將在 2.7 億美元至 3 億美元之間,其中包括 100 至 120 兆瓦時的 IQ 電池的處理量。營收預期中包含約 3,500 萬美元的安全港收入。

  • We expect GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 40% to 43%, including approximately 5 percentage points of reciprocal tariff impact.

    我們預計 GAAP 毛利率將在 40% 至 43% 的範圍內,其中包括約 5 個百分點的相互關稅影響。

  • We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 42% to 45%, including the reciprocal tariff impact. Non-GAAP gross margin excludes stock-based compensation expense and acquisition-related amortization.

    我們預計非GAAP毛利率將在42%至45%的範圍內,其中包括相互關稅的影響。非GAAP毛利率不包括股權激勵費用及收購相關攤銷。

  • We expect our GAAP operating expenses to be within the range of $137 million to $141 million, including approximately $60 million estimated for stock-based compensation expense, acquisition-related expenses, and amortization and restructuring and asset impairment charges.

    我們預計 GAAP 營運費用將在 1.37 億美元至 1.41 億美元之間,其中包括約 6,000 萬美元的股份支付費用、收購相關費用、攤銷和重組以及資產減損費用。

  • We expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $77 million to $81 million.

    我們預計非GAAP營運費用將在7,700萬美元至8,100萬美元之間。

  • As part of our efforts to better align our workforce and cost structure with Enphase's business needs, strategic priorities and ongoing commitment to profitable growth, we recently reduced headcount by around 6%. We expect to reduce our non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $70 million to $75 million per quarter, starting from the third quarter of 2026.

    為了更好地使我們的員工隊伍和成本結構與 Enphase 的業務需求、策略重點和對獲利成長的持續承諾保持一致,我們最近減少了約 6% 的員工人數。我們預計從 2026 年第三季開始,將非 GAAP 營運費用減少到每季 7,000 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間。

  • In closing, we managed well with our financial discipline through a difficult global environment in 2025. We maintained profitability and strong gross margins. In addition, in 2025, we generated approximately $95.9 million of free cash flow and approximately $228 million of net PTC receivable. We exited the year with $1.51 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities while repurchasing 2.3 million shares of our common stock for approximately $130 million.

    總之,憑藉良好的財務紀律,我們在2025年艱難的全球環境下管理得很好。我們維持了獲利能力和強勁的毛利率。此外,在 2025 年,我們產生了約 9,590 萬美元的自由現金流和約 2.28 億美元的淨 PTC 應收款。截至年底,我們持有現金、現金等價物和有價證券共 15.1 億美元,同時回購了 230 萬股普通股,總額約 1.3 億美元。

  • With that, I will open the line for questions.

    接下來,我將開放提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Phil Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.

    (操作員說明)Phil Shen,ROTH Capital Partners。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First one is on the cadence for the year. I know you don't guide for other quarters, but I was wondering if you could give us a little bit of color on what Q2 might look like? You talked about Q1 being the low point. And so should we expect Q2 to be flat or up or slightly down?

    大家好。謝謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是關於今年的節奏。我知道您不提供其他季度的業績指引,但我很想知道您能否稍微透露一下第二季度的業績情況?你之前說過第一季是低谷期。那麼我們應該預期第二季業績持平、上升還是略有下降呢?

  • And then from a margin standpoint, would you expect a little bit of expansion in or kind of similar levels to Q1? Thanks.

    那麼從利潤率的角度來看,您預計利潤率會略有擴張,還是會與第一季持平?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right. We expect Q2 to be up, but it's too early for us to talk about it. And like what I said in the prepared remarks, there are a few things which are -- which we believe is tailwinds for us. And there are a few things that Enphase is specifically doing.

    正確的。我們預計第二季業績會有所成長,但現在談論這個還為時過早。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說,有幾件事——我們認為這些事對我們來說是順風。Enphase 正在做一些特別的事情。

  • So the tailwinds are -- you can see the utility rates. So the utility rates are going up everywhere in the US. And we see a lot of increases in the Northeast, in the Midwest. So I think that is going to be a definite tailwind for us.

    所以有利因素是——你可以看到公用事業費率。所以美國各地的公用事業費率都在上漲。我們看到東北部和中西部地區的病例都在大幅增加。所以我認為這對我們來說絕對是一個有利因素。

  • New financing options such as the prepaid leases are starting to sprout, not just the ones that we are involved in, but in general. So I think that would be an opportunity to essentially replace the loan demand, the loan TAM prior to the 25D expiration, the tax credit expiration.

    新的融資選擇,例如預付租賃,正在湧現,不僅是我們參與的那些,而是普遍存在的。所以我認為這將是一個機會,可以在 25D 到期和稅收抵免到期之前,有效地取代貸款需求和貸款 TAM。

  • And then the last one is, although interest rates didn't come down in the recent announcement, I think we will see some easing interest rates through the year, and I think that will further improve affordability.

    最後一點是,雖然最近的公告沒有降低利率,但我認為今年利率會下降,我認為這將進一步提高購屋能力。

  • So those are three strong tailwinds that we see. They should get better as the year progresses.

    所以,我們看到了這三大強勁的順風。隨著時間推移,他們的情況應該會好轉。

  • What are we doing? We are just not sitting and watching. We are doing a few things like what I listed, accelerating IQ Battery 10C. Now, we are approved at all three IOUs in California. So there is no barrier for the Meter Collar. We are approved at 52 utilities, and we expect to add 50 more utilities in 2026 overall. So that's going quite well.

    我們在做什麼?我們不會袖手旁觀。我們正在做一些事情,像是我列出的那些,加速 IQ Battery 10C 的研發。現在,我們已獲得加州所有三家 IOU 的批准。所以儀表項圈不存在任何障礙。我們已獲得 52 家公用事業公司的批准,預計到 2026 年將總共新增 50 家公用事業公司。一切進展順利。

  • Also, 70% of our US battery shipments are now the IQ Battery 10C. We also expect the prepaid leases to help accelerate our battery volumes.

    此外,我們美國電池出貨量的 70% 目前是 IQ Battery 10C。我們也預計預付費租賃將有助於加快電池產量成長。

  • In addition, we expect FEOC and domestic content to be a good value proposition that Enphase can offer, which should also increase the volume sequentially through the year. So that's on the batteries.

    此外,我們預計 FEOC 和國內內容將成為 Enphase 能夠提供的良好價值主張,這也將使銷量在年內逐年增長。所以,這跟電池有關。

  • We are very excited about the IQ9 product, the IQ9N product. The IQ9 product addresses the 480 volts commercial market, which we have not played in before. We just started shipping the product in December. We already have a backlog of more than 50,000 microinverters for Q1.

    我們對 IQ9 產品和 IQ9N 產品感到非常興奮。IQ9 產品面向 480 伏特商用市場,這是我們以前從未涉足的市場。我們從去年12月才開始出貨。第一季我們已經積壓了超過 5 萬台微型逆變器的訂單。

  • And I think there, we expect to grow from strength to strength. It's a new market. Of course, there's going to be a cycle of learning, but I think we bring some things unique like reliability, quality, and domestic content via compliance, all of those we bring. So that's very exciting.

    而且我認為,我們期望在那裡不斷發展壯大。這是一個新興市場。當然,這需要一個學習的過程,但我認為我們帶來了一些獨特的東西,例如可靠性、品質和透過合規性實現的本土化內容,這些都是我們帶來的。那真是太令人興奮了。

  • The third one, unlocking the battery retrofits across Netherlands and France, big deal. We are doing something we have never done before. We are organizing homeowner events in Netherlands. We are organizing two homeowner events every week. And so we are talking of 100 homeowner events for the year. Every homeowner event will generate preorders. While it's too early for us to share those details, we believe it will meaningfully change our battery demand in Netherlands. So we are extremely excited about that.

    第三點,即在荷蘭和法國推行電池改造,意義重大。我們正在做一件我們以前從未做過的事情。我們正在荷蘭組織業主活動。我們每週都會舉辦兩場業主活動。所以,我們說的是一年內舉辦100場業主活動。每次業主活動都會產生預購訂單。雖然現在分享這些細節還為時過早,但我們相信這將顯著改變我們在荷蘭的電池需求。我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Same deal in France. Although in France, the -- it is not like -- in Netherlands, the energy contracts aren't fixed for a very long time. They change every one to three years. But in France, they are fixed. So retrofit opportunity isn't as compelling as Netherlands, but still, people who would like to own batteries for resilience and new installations, certainly, self-consumption is required because the field and tariffs have dropped off a lot. So we are very excited there as well, both the opportunity to sell to our installed base as well as new installations, new business models. So that's number three.

    法國的情況也一樣。雖然在法國——不像在荷蘭那樣——能源合約的期限並不長。它們每隔一到三年就會更換一次。但在法國,它們是固定的。因此,改造機會不如荷蘭那麼誘人,但即便如此,那些想要擁有電池以提高韌性和進行新安裝的人,當然需要自用,因為該領域和關稅已經大幅下降。所以我們也感到非常興奮,既有機會向我們現有的客戶群銷售產品,也有機會進行新的安裝,開拓新的商業模式。這是第三點。

  • Number four is we just introduced our IQ -- latest and greatest IQ EV charger into the US. It's a state-of-the-art -- one, it's a beautiful looking product, and it's doing quite well in Europe. We expect it to do very well in the US. But the real exciting thing there is the bidirectional charger.

    第四點是,我們剛剛將我們最新的、最棒的 IQ 電動車充電器引入美國。它是一款最先進的產品——首先,它外觀精美,而且在歐洲銷售情況相當不錯。我們預計它在美國會取得非常好的成績。但真正令人興奮的是雙向充電器。

  • The bidirectional charger is a demonstration of how powerful the inverter architecture is. We interfaced to 800-volt DC on the [car] side and then to home AC using the same single-stage power conversion that Enphase is known for.

    雙向充電器充分展現了逆變器架構的強大功能。我們在汽車側連接了 800 伏特直流電,然後使用 Enphase 聞名的單級電源轉換裝置連接到家用交流電。

  • So just with our bidirectional chargers, which has got the inverters in grid forming inverters in it, plus the Meter Collar, that is enough to do both V2H and V2G. So we're excited about that one, which will come about in production in Q4.

    所以,僅憑我們的雙向充電器(內建併網逆變器)以及電錶環,就足以實現 V2H 和 V2G。所以我們對此感到興奮,它將在第四季度投入生產。

  • And the last one, we are already going to -- preparing ourselves to launch IQ9 residential microinverters in the first quarter in a few weeks from now, both US as well as international. Then we expect to introduce our fifth-generation battery. Fifth-generation battery will have the energy density close to about 100-watt hour per liter, which is best-in-class. The cost of that battery will be 40% down compared to the fourth-generation battery.

    最後一點,我們已經準備就緒——將在幾週後的第一季推出 IQ9 家用微型逆變器,面向美國和國際市場。接下來,我們預計將推出第五代電池。第五代電池的能量密度將接近每公升 100 瓦時,這是同類產品中最好的。該電池的成本將比第四代電池降低 40%。

  • Therefore, it will allow us to basically reduce our enterprising for the consumer, which is necessary as batteries -- battery adoption increases and yet maintain our gross margins in line with the corporate gross molecule. So those five levers are all entirely in our control, and we plan to make full use of them in addition to the three tailwinds we talked about.

    因此,這將使我們能夠從根本上減少對消費者的投入,這是必要的,因為電池的普及率正在提高,同時也能保持我們的毛利率與公司毛利率一致。所以這五個槓桿完全在我們掌控之中,我們計劃充分利用它們,再加上我們之前提到的三個順風。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Great, Badri. Thank you for all that detail. I had a quick follow-up on the -- you said Q2, I think you meant revenue would be up, but you don't know or can't quantify how much. Just want to understand if that's versus the $285 million from Q1 with safe harbor or versus the $250 million without safe harbor?

    太好了,巴德里。謝謝你提供這麼多細節。我快速跟進了一下——你說的是第二季度,我想你的意思是收入會成長,但你不知道或無法量化成長多少。我想知道這是指第一季有安全港條款的 2.85 億美元,還是指沒有安全港條款的 2.5 億美元?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We usually make the comments regarding -- with respect to the core revenue. But we also expect -- although we can never forecast safe harbor, we also expect healthy safe harbor in the second quarter because it's natural. The reason is TPO partners are going to formulate plans for '28, meaning 2028, 2029, 2030. So there is going to be some safe harbor activity happening in both. And we'll have the time to ship it through Q3, I believe, so yeah.

    我們通常會就核心收入發表意見。但我們也預期——儘管我們永遠無法預測安全港,但我們也預期第二季安全港狀況良好,因為這是自然法則。原因是 TPO 合作夥伴將制定 2028 年、2029 年、2030 年的計畫。所以,這兩個領域都會有一些安全港活動。我相信我們有足夠的時間在第三季完成發貨,所以是的。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Great. And as for my follow-up here. In terms of the data center market and the 800-volt architecture and what you guys might be able to do for that, I know it's super early, but just -- in so far as you can kind of comment on how you could address that market, what the timing might be, that would be fantastic. But if you can't talk about it, I get it. Just wanted to see if we might be able to get some color.

    偉大的。至於我的後續問題。就資料中心市場和 800 伏特架構以及你們可能為此做些什麼而言,我知道現在還為時過早,但是——如果你們能就如何開拓這個市場、時機如何發表一些評論,那就太好了。但如果你不方便談論這件事,我能理解。只是想看看能不能弄出點顏色。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. We are very aware of the industry's trend going towards 800-volt DC for the data center. Where that actually intersects, our expertise is that -- is in front-end power conversion, specifically how medium-voltage AC, and we are talking about 13.8 kV and 34.5 kV AC can be efficiently converted, controlled, and managed into 800-volt DC before the power reaches the AI rack.

    當然。我們非常清楚資料中心向 800 伏特直流電過渡的行業趨勢。我們的專長在於前端電源轉換,具體來說,就是如何在電源到達 AI 機架之前,將中壓交流電(我們指的是 13.8 kV 和 34.5 kV 交流電)高效地轉換、控制和管理為 800 伏特直流電。

  • So having said that, we are evaluating multiple next-generation power conversion architectures as part of our long-term R&D. But we are not in a position to discuss any specific products or timelines today.

    因此,作為我們長期研發的一部分,我們正在評估多種下一代電源轉換架構。但我們今天不方便討論任何具體產品或時間表。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

    Brian Lee,高盛集團。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First one I had was just on margins, maybe for Mandy, maybe for Badri. I think the 5% reciprocal tariff impact, it seems to be stabilizing and peaking here. I think last year, you talked about fully offsetting it by 2Q of 2026. So any updates there on the ability to offset the tariff impact? Is that still a 2Q target? Maybe if you can kind of quantify magnitude and cadence for us off this 5% level that you're still guiding to for Q1? And then I had a follow-up.

    嘿,夥計們。午安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我第一張畫只是畫在邊緣,可能是給曼蒂的,也可能是給巴德里的。我認為5%的互惠關稅的影響似乎正在趨於穩定並達到高峰。我認為去年您曾說過要在 2026 年第二季完全抵銷這一影響。那麼,關於抵銷關稅影響方面,有什麼最新進展嗎?那還是第二季的目標嗎?或許您可以為我們量化一下您目前仍指引的第一季 5% 水準的幅度和節奏?然後我還有後續跟進。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right. So Brian, if you remember the last time, what happened was the tariff -- meaning approximately, let's say, three to four quarters ago, that was a tariff specifically with respect to China. And at that time, what we said is we are going to make plans to move into non-China manufacturing, which we are on track to do. And we would be able to avoid any significant tariffs by doing that.

    正確的。所以布萊恩,如果你還記得上次發生的事情,那就是關稅——也就是說,大約在三到四個季度前,那是一項專門針對中國的關稅。當時我們說過,我們將製定計劃,進軍中國以外的製造業,而我們正按計劃推進這項工作。這樣做我們就能避免繳納任何高額關稅。

  • However, the situation now has changed. And every country now has got a tariff, including -- that is what is called as the reciprocal tariff. I have -- if I go to Malaysia, there is a tariff. If I go to Vietnam, there is a tariff. Everywhere, there is tariff. And for us, the 5% tariff, just to give you more color, is distributed across -- 2% of the impact is on microinverters, 2% is on batteries, 1% is on accessories.

    然而,現在情況已經改變了。現在每個國家都有關稅,包括──這就是所謂的互惠關稅。如果我去馬來西亞,我需要繳關稅。如果我去越南,我需要繳關稅。到處都有關稅。為了讓大家更清楚地了解狀況,我們這裡 5% 的關稅分配如下:2% 的影響針對微型逆變器,2% 的影響針對電池,1% 的影響針對配件。

  • Why? For example, on microinverters, we will have to bring in raw materials into the US in order to make our microinverters into the US -- in the US. So therefore, those get hit.

    為什麼?例如,對於微型逆變器,我們需要將原料進口到美國,才能在美國生產我們的微型逆變器。所以,這些都會受到影響。

  • So therefore, there is no safe play which has got no tariff for us. What we believe, to answer your question, because that's still a valid question, what you got to -- how are you going to offset that 5% reciprocal tariff -- for us, the answer is in innovation.

    所以,對我們來說,沒有絕對安全且無需付出代價的選擇。回答您的問題(因為這仍然是一個有效的問題),您問的——您將如何抵消這 5% 的互惠關稅——對我們來說,答案在於創新。

  • The answer is in IQ9, the answer is in the fifth-generation battery. Those are -- IQ9, for example, is despite the power going up by 10%, we are able to maintain a smaller form factor. And we expect to take advantage of that in terms of higher gross margins with IQ9.

    答案就在 IQ9 裡,答案就在第五代電池裡。例如,IQ9 雖然功率提高了 10%,但我們仍然能夠保持更小的外形尺寸。我們期望透過 IQ9 獲得更高的毛利率。

  • As you can imagine, higher power products that produce higher power get more production tax credit, $0.11 a watt. So naturally, we expect to make higher gross margins there.

    可以想像,功率更高的產品可以獲得更高的生產稅收抵免,每瓦0.11美元。因此,我們自然期望在那裡獲得更高的毛利率。

  • Then in addition, on the batteries, that's where the big lever for us is. We are rapidly getting close to releasing our fifth-generation battery. The fifth-generation battery uses very compact, compact cells. These are prismatic cells. And therefore, we essentially are able to reduce that entire form factor, the full battery by a very significant amount. And we are able to do a stackable battery. Ours will be unique. It will be an AC coupled, stackable battery.

    此外,電池方面,對我們來說,那是關鍵所在。我們的第五代電池即將發布。第五代電池採用非常小巧的電芯。這些是棱柱形細胞。因此,我們基本上能夠大幅縮小整個電池的尺寸。我們能夠製造可堆疊電池。我們的將會是獨一無二的。它將是一款交流耦合、可堆疊的電池。

  • Energy density, like what I said, 50% higher than our current battery fourth generation. Cost structure will be 40% lower. This will enable us to make good gross margins and overcome that 5% reciprocal tariff.

    正如我所說,能量密度比我們目前的第四代電池高出 50%。成本結構將降低40%。這將使我們能夠獲得良好的毛利率,並克服5%的互惠關稅。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Thanks. The follow-up would be on one of the specific products here. You talked a lot about the IQ9 Commercial Inverter, the $400 million TAM. If my math is right, it seems like the bookings activity, Badri, you mentioned maybe you're tracking the $5 million to $10 million right out of the gate for that new product. One, is that right? And then two, kind of how do you see yourself scaling up this year against that $400 million TAM? Is this tens of millions of dollars of revenue by the second half of the year? Thank you, guys.

    謝謝。接下來將針對這裡的一款具體產品進行報道。你談到了很多關於 IQ9 商用逆變器,其市場規模達 4 億美元。如果我沒算錯的話,巴德里,你提到的預訂活動似乎表明,這款新產品一上市就能達到 500 萬到 1000 萬美元的收入。第一,是這樣嗎?其次,您認為今年如何在 4 億美元的潛在市場規模下擴張?到今年下半年,這筆收入將達到數千萬美元嗎?謝謝大家。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, you're approximately right. It is between $5 million and $10 million for the first quarter. And you should think about it the following way.

    是的,你說的大致正確。第一季預計營收在500萬美元至1000萬美元之間。你應該這樣想。

  • I think what we are -- this product is -- it offers a compelling value proposition in terms of quality, reliability, FEOC compliance, domestic content. Customers haven't had such a choice before. So we are getting a lot of good traction.

    我認為我們所代表的——這款產品——在品質、可靠性、FEOC合規性和國產化率方面都具有很強的價值主張。顧客以前從未有過這樣的選擇。所以我們取得了很大的進展。

  • And what we have shown in the residential market is that over the long-term, high-quality, high serviceability wins. And we, therefore, expect to demonstrate the same in this small commercial market, and we expect over a three-year timeframe to get into the similar market share as what we have on the residential.

    我們在住宅市場已經證明,從長遠來看,高品質、高可維護性才能贏得市場。因此,我們期望在這個小型商業市場中取得同樣的成績,並期望在三年內獲得與住宅市場類似的市場份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

    Praneeth Satish,富國銀行。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good evening. I guess, just maybe on the prepaid lease product, assuming the pilot performs well that you're doing, can you share any more details in terms of the timeline of when you would expand into additional states? And would it happen gradually or more of kind of a larger push? And can you get your coverage potentially nationwide by the end of 2026?

    謝謝。晚安.我想,或許可以談談預付費租賃產品,假設你們的試點計畫進展順利,能否分享一下何時會擴展到其他州的具體時間表?這會是逐漸發生的,還是會像某種更大規模的推動一樣發生?到 2026 年底,您的保險覆蓋範圍有可能擴展到全國嗎?

  • And then just on prepaid leases in general, for the other prepaid lease offerings that are being -- that are out there, how do you think about your market share with those programs, I guess, relative to your traditional cash and loan channels?

    那麼就預付租賃而言,對於目前市面上的其他預付租賃產品,您認為相對於您傳統的現金和貸款管道,您在這些項目中的市場份額如何?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think those are good questions, but we are in very early stages right now. We are in pilots right now. We are, as I said, operational in four states, and we have over 14 starters. We are starting to get reasonable originations.

    是的。我認為這些都是很好的問題,但我們現在還處於非常早期的階段。我們目前正在進行試點計畫。正如我所說,我們在四個州開展業務,我們有超過 14 名首發球員。我們開始獲得一些比較合理的貸款發放。

  • But what we want to do is to test out the entire cycling. That's why it's called as a pilot. And when we test out the entire cycle, then the kinks will be obvious to us, and then we can either expand rapidly or take a measured step going forward. Our desire is to do it sooner rather than later. And let me actually limit that right now.

    但我們想做的是測試整個騎行過程。所以才叫它試飛機。當我們測試整個流程時,問題就會很明顯,然後我們可以選擇快速擴張,或採取穩健的措施繼續前進。我們希望盡快完成這件事。讓我現在就限制一下這個範圍。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • That's fine. And maybe shifting gears. If you can give us an update in terms of IQ 10C battery sales, how that's shaping into Q1? Looking at the market share data, it did seem like it kind of ticked up a little bit in December. Has that momentum kind of carried over into Q1?

    沒關係。或許需要換檔。您能否向我們介紹一下 IQ 10C 電池的銷售情況,第一季的銷售情況如何?從市佔率數據來看,12 月似乎略有上升。這種勢頭是否延續到了第一季?

  • And then what's been the feedback from installers in California now that the Meter Collar's approved with all of the utilities? Do you think you can get your -- I think your market share is roughly around 15%, plus or minus. Do you think you can get that back up over 20% with the fourth-gen battery, or do you think it's really the fifth-gen battery where you start to see a lot of market share recapture?

    現在電錶套環已經獲得加州所有公用事業公司的批准,那麼加州的安裝人員對此有何回饋呢?你認為你能達到你的——我認為你的市場份額大約在15%左右,上下浮動。你認為第四代電池能讓市佔率恢復到 20% 以上嗎?還是說只有第五代電池才能真正開始奪回大量市場份額?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think the fourth-gen battery will do it a bit because it's got a very nice form factor. It's -- the Meter Collar is now approved in 52 utilities, California IOUs. All of them are now taking the Meter Collar. We had the last one come through in late part of Q4. So all of the barriers essentially are now removed.

    是的。我認為第四代電池會起到一定作用,因為它外形設計非常出色。目前,電錶環已獲得 52 家公用事業公司(加州 IOU)的批准。他們現在都佩戴了計量項圈。最後一個項目是在第四季末完成的。所以,所有障礙基本上都已消除。

  • Installers, you asked me for installer feedback. We do roundtables with installers almost every week. And installers like the product, they like the installation. They like the commissioning times, which are under an hour.

    安裝人員,你們向我徵求安裝回饋。我們幾乎每週都會與安裝人員舉行圓桌會議。安裝人員喜歡這款產品,也喜歡這種安裝方式。他們喜歡不到一個小時的調試時間。

  • That's not to say that there are no problems at all. There are a few, which we are rapidly taking care of. There's a couple of things that we are doing is we are releasing third-party solar compatibility for IQ Battery 10C, which we expect that battery to be used with non-Enphase PV installations, too. So that will be a big deal. It's in very high demand by our installers. So we think that that will increase our share more.

    但這並不意味著完全沒有問題。還有一些問題,我們正在迅速處理。我們正在做兩件事,其中之一是為 IQ Battery 10C 推出第三方太陽能相容性,我們預計該電池也將用於非 Enphase 光伏裝置。那將是一件大事。我們的安裝人員對它的需求量非常大。所以我們認為這將進一步提高我們的市場份額。

  • In addition, like what I said, we'll start to see the effect of FEOC and domestic content. The December uptick was probably related to 25D. So I wouldn't read that much into it, although we'd like to take some credit for it. And -- so we do expect progress with the fourth generation.

    此外,正如我所說,我們將開始看到FEOC和國內內容的影響。12 月的上漲可能與 25D 有關。所以我覺得沒必要過度解讀,雖然我們很想把功勞攬到自己身上。因此,我們期待第四代產品能夠取得進步。

  • On the fifth generation, yes, we do expect to definitely take a lot of share there too in addition, simply because the battery will come with much more compelling economics. Even with all of the tariffs in place, I will be able to make good gross margins as well as offer excellent consumer pricing. So we're excited about the fifth-generation battery.

    是的,在第五代產品中,我們確實預期也會佔據很大的市場份額,因為電池的經濟性將更具吸引力。即使加上各種關稅,我依然能夠獲得良好的毛利率,並提供極具競爭力的消費者價格。所以我們對第五代電池感到非常興奮。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

    科林魯什,奧本海默。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, guys. Can you talk about where battery inventories are right now in the channel, particularly in Europe as you look at some of the demand that's growing in both Netherlands and France and even in Australia? I just want to get a sense of how lean the channel is and if there's some product that needs to move through before you start growing in the second quarter.

    非常感謝各位。您能否談談目前通路中的電池庫存情況,特別是歐洲的電池庫存情況,因為荷蘭、法國甚至澳洲的需求都在增加?我只是想了解通路的精簡程度,以及在第二季開始成長之前,是否有一些產品需要先消化掉。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • In general, I would say our -- we are very happy where we ended the channel in both the US as well as outside the US. Our -- in the past, I have told you, what we consider normal is 8 to 10 weeks. And in the US, the channel is actually much more leaner. That means it's better than 8 to 10 weeks.

    總的來說,我認為我們對頻道在美國和美國以外地區的最終發展方向都非常滿意。我之前告訴過你們,我們認為正常的週期是 8 到 10 週。而在美國,這個管道其實要精簡得多。這意味著比 8 到 10 週要好。

  • While going forward, if you account for the demand reduction in 2026 versus 2025, I would say forward-looking weeks on hand is in the normal range. So there isn't anything bloated in the channel. We are doing a good job.

    展望未來,考慮到 2026 年與 2025 年相比需求下降,我認為未來幾週的庫存量處於正常範圍內。所以頻道裡沒有任何冗餘的內容。我們做得很好。

  • Channel management is ingrained in our DNA right now. We don't expect that to be a problem.

    渠道管理如今已深深融入我們的基因。我們預計這不會是個問題。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. And then just thinking about VPPs and some of the capabilities of your system. Can you talk about some of your functionality around reactive power, voltage management, and your ability to serve some of those ancillary services markets that may be differentiated versus some of your peers?

    非常感謝。然後思考虛擬電源計劃 (VPP) 以及您系統的一些功能。您能否談談貴公司在無功功率、電壓管理方面的一些功能,以及貴公司在輔助服務市場方面與同業相比可能存在的差異?

  • Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

    Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

  • Yeah, hi. This is Raghu. Yes, I think we look at it very broadly. We look at not just the battery as being the only flexible resource that's available. You can think about as we look at the EV charger today, that's a flex resource.

    嗨,你好。這是拉古。是的,我認為我們應該從非常廣泛的角度來看這個問題。我們不僅將電池視為唯一可用的彈性資源。就像我們今天看到的電動車充電器一樣,你可以把它看作是一種靈活資源。

  • As we think about bidirectionally recharging, that's, again, a flex resource. Solar itself is also can be considered as a flex resource. So our view is much broader than just simply thinking about one element of it. So every product that we release, every new product that we release, we think about it in the context of its participation in VPP. So we make sure that we have best-in-class APIs available so people can then exercise all of those resources. Because they're value-generating resources, they can actually help with homeowners' ROI.

    當我們考慮雙向充電時,這又是一種靈活的資源。太陽能本身也可以被視為一種彈性資源。因此,我們的視野要比僅僅考慮其中的某個要素要廣闊得多。因此,我們發布的每一款產品,每一款新產品,我們都會從參與 VPP 的角度來考慮它。因此,我們確保提供一流的 API,以便人們能夠充分利用所有這些資源。因為它們是能夠創造價值的資源,所以實際上可以幫助房主提高投資報酬率。

  • So all of the grid services that you mentioned, which is reactive power, voltage support or just capacity, resource adequacy, all of these functions are organically built into all of the products that we build because we expect they'll all be flexed as we see the VPP market evolving.

    所以,您提到的所有電網服務,包括無功功率、電壓支援或容量、資源充足性等功能,都已有機地融入到我們生產的所有產品中,因為我們預計隨著虛擬電廠市場的演變,它們都將靈活運用。

  • And so far, while the focus has been around batteries, our VPP participation has been very strong with a number of partners. We mentioned two of them in our prepared remarks with the San Diego Community Power as well as Green Mountain Power. Those were the two examples that we provided, but it's much broader than that. So we're pretty excited about all the work that we have done with our VPP.

    到目前為止,雖然重點一直放在電池上,但我們與許多合作夥伴在虛擬電廠的參與方面非常強大。我們在與聖地牙哥社區電力公司和綠山電力公司準備的演講稿中提到了其中兩家公司。以上是我們提供的兩個例子,但實際情況遠比這廣泛得多。所以我們對我們在 VPP 方面所做的所有工作都感到非常興奮。

  • We -- it's a metric that we track very closely in terms of availability of our VPP APIs, how well our servers are working in order to service the demand. This is US, whereas what we are seeing is all of the VPP work that we are also doing in Europe with particularly in the Netherlands, where we are providing capacity imbalance, dynamic tariffs.

    我們——這是一個我們密切追蹤的指標,它反映了我們的 VPP API 的可用性,以及我們的伺服器如何很好地滿足需求。這是美國的情況,而我們看到的是我們在歐洲,尤其是在荷蘭進行的所有虛擬電廠(VPP)工作,我們正在提供容量不平衡和動態電價。

  • Others, where they're creating our batteries into the market, in some cases, as often as a few seconds. So we see this as a very critical evolution of the business in general because as you think about data center demand really overwhelming the grid, I think behind the meter resources will play a pretty big role in helping alleviate some of that pressure. And so aggregating all of these resources and participating in the market is very key. And we have seen that trend, and we are on top of it and really driving our products to make sure that it's best-in-class with regards to participation in the market.

    而另一些情況下,他們將我們的電池推向市場,有時甚至只需幾秒鐘。因此,我們認為這是整個業務的一個非常關鍵的演變,因為考慮到資料中心的需求確實會超出電網的承受能力,我認為表後資源將在幫助緩解這種壓力方面發揮相當大的作用。因此,整合所有這些資源並參與市場交易至關重要。我們已經看到了這種趨勢,我們正在密切關注這一趨勢,努力推動我們的產品,以確保其在市場參與度方面達到一流水平。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, guys.

    非常感謝各位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Stine, Craig-Hallum.

    艾瑞克‧斯泰恩,克雷格-哈勒姆。

  • Eric Stine - Analyst

    Eric Stine - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Just wondering if we can talk about safe harbor a little bit. So just the -- sort of confirm, $63 million in the order and some of that coming in Q1, you've included that in your guide. So I guess, a similar amount in Q2, you did mention that you think that you could recognize some revenue in Q3 for the out years. I mean, curious, do you -- is there a magnitude, any indications you're getting from your partners what those orders might look as you start to think about as you called it, in '28 and '29 for safe harbor?

    大家好。我想問一下,我們能不能稍微談談安全港條款?所以,我只是想確認一下,訂單金額為 6300 萬美元,其中一部分將在第一季到賬,您已經把這一點包含在您的指南中了。所以我想,第二季的金額應該差不多,你也提到過,你認為未來幾年第三季可能會確認一些收入。我的意思是,我很好奇,你從你的合作夥伴那裡得到的任何跡象表明,當你開始考慮你所說的「28 年和 29 年的安全港」時,這些命令可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, it's too early for us to forecast any safe harbor orders, we don't really know right now. And they usually -- based upon the deadline that we see, TPO partners have until approximately July 1 week to finalize their plans. And so we do expect a lot of frenzy activity in Q2.

    不,現在預測任何安全港命令還為時過早,我們目前真的不知道。根據我們看到的截止日期,TPO 合作夥伴通常需要在 7 月 1 日左右完成他們的計劃。因此,我們預計第二季會出現許多交易活躍期。

  • We did -- what we announced, we announced basically two or two transactions that we announced. One was I think in the 50s, and another was in the 60s. And so one was physical work test, and the other was a 5% safe harbor. We even expect some of those customers to do repeat safe harbor orders.

    我們確實宣布了——我們基本上宣布了兩兩項交易。其中一部好像在 50 年代,另一部是在 60 年代。因此,一項是體力勞動測試,另一項是 5% 的安全港規則。我們甚至預計其中一些客戶會再次下達安全港訂單。

  • But right now, it's too early for us to, yeah.

    但現在對我們來說,這還為時過早。

  • Eric Stine - Analyst

    Eric Stine - Analyst

  • No, understood. I appreciate that. And then I know you talked about share on the storage side, but just curious as you think about the year, it seems that this would be a trough. Like you're thinking it is for the overall business. What type of linearity or what trends do you see in storage based on timing of some of the product introductions, et cetera?

    不,明白了。我很感激。我知道你談到了儲存方面的份額,但只是好奇,當你回顧這一年時,這似乎是一個低谷期。就像你認為它對整個業務有益一樣。根據一些產品上市的時間等因素,您觀察到儲存方面存在什麼樣的線性關係或趨勢?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. In general, storage should be very positive because the tax credits are going to be valid for a much longer time. So batteries are in favor I think until 2030 or 2031, I forget.

    是的。總的來說,倉儲應該會帶來非常正面的影響,因為稅收抵免的有效期會更長。所以我覺得電池在2030年或2031年之前都會佔優勢,我已經記不清了。

  • So storage, storage market is going to definitely take off. You can see that almost every state -- my prediction, and this is only my prediction, is in the next coming years, every state will start to adopt battery storage.

    所以儲存市場肯定會蓬勃發展。你可以看到,幾乎每個州——我的預測,這只是我的預測,在未來幾年裡,每個州都將開始採用電池儲能。

  • Solar plus storage will become the norm. Because at some point, uncontrollable export of solar is not desired. So California is ahead. We all didn't like NEM 3.0 initially because of the way it was implemented. But the concept of NEM 3.0 is right. And in fact, California is a solar plus battery market with 100% attach now. It's got good economics, six to eight years of payback.

    太陽能加儲能將成為常態。因為在某種程度上,不受控制的太陽能出口是不受歡迎的。所以加州領先。起初我們都不喜歡 NEM 3.0,因為它實現的方式不太好。但 NEM 3.0 的概念是正確的。事實上,加州現在是太陽能+電池市場,接取率已達100%。它的經濟效益很好,六到八年就能回本。

  • So my prediction is every state in the next 10 years will become solar plus storage. So storage is going to boom. It is going to actually -- batteries will pull solar. It's going to become the reverse.

    所以我預測,未來10年內,每個州都將實現太陽能加儲能。所以儲存產業將會蓬勃發展。實際上,電池會吸收太陽能。情況將會反過來。

  • It is already like that in Europe. If you go look at Europe, you look at Germany, the attach rate is 80%. You look at Italy, the attach rate is also in the similar range. You look at Netherlands, that's now going to start to move in that direction. You look at France, the feed-in tariffs have dropped a lot. So there is -- solar plus storage will become the norm.

    歐洲已經是這樣了。如果你看看歐洲,看看德國,你會發現其攻擊率高達 80%。看看義大利,其攻擊率也處於類似的範圍內。看看荷蘭,它現在也開始朝著那個方向發展了。看看法國,上網電價補貼已經大幅下降。所以,太陽能加儲能將成為常態。

  • So controllability, VPPs, self-consumption, those are what -- they are going to drive the economics. And they're all in the direction of reducing the utility bill for the homeowner, so yeah. Is there something you want to share, Raghu, on that?

    所以,可控性、虛擬電廠、自用,這些才是──它們將驅動經濟。而且它們的目的都是為了降低房主的公用事業費用,所以,是的。拉古,你有什麼想分享的嗎?

  • Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

    Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

  • No, I think you're seeing that even happening with NEM 3.0, where it's -- even beyond self-consumption, you're starting to see things where you -- there's a pricing signal that you get. And based on the pricing signal, you charge or discharge your battery, you export to the grid because you get compensated for it.

    不,我認為即使在 NEM 3.0 中,你也能看到這種情況——即使超出了自用範圍,你也開始看到一些事情——你會收到一個定價訊號。根據價格訊號,你可以對電池進行充電或放電,並將電量輸送到電網,因為你會獲得相應的補償。

  • In Europe, they do that as day-ahead pricing, and I think you'll see that things such as VPP, day-ahead pricing, dynamic tariffs, et cetera, are really going to be very compelling economics for the homeowner to adopt battery. And that's how you saw California evolve in that direction. And I agree that it's going to happen even maybe faster than 10 years, that you'll see traditional NEM will slowly sunset.

    在歐洲,他們採用的是日前定價,我認為你會看到,像是虛擬電廠、日前定價、動態電價等等,對於房主來說,在經濟上確實具有很強的吸引力,促使他們採用電池。就這樣,加州朝著那個方向發展起來的。我同意,這種情況將會發生,甚至可能比 10 年更快,你會看到傳統的 NEM 逐漸退出歷史舞台。

  • Eric Stine - Analyst

    Eric Stine - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith,傑富瑞集團。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Badri and team, nicely done on the continued progress here. Just wanted to come back to a couple of things that were mentioned. First off, what do you think batteries go to the corporate average here? I mean, you just made -- you gave us a little backtrack about the outlook here. How do you think about margins evolving there and normalizing upwards? And again, I get that can be by product here in the evolution.

    Badri 和團隊,你們做得很好,繼續取得了進展。我想再補充幾句之前提到的事情。首先,你認為電池在企業平均佔比多少?我的意思是,你剛才──你讓我們對這裡的前景有了些許改觀。您認為該地區的利潤率會如何演變並逐漸正常化向上?我再次意識到,這可能是演變過程中的副產品。

  • And then separately, can you talk back again about the market evolution here as it pertains to prepaid lease adoption? And ultimately, as you say, this is essentially offsetting the impact of 25D going away. Can you talk about the cadence of that happening, both your own PPL piece of it?

    然後,您能否再單獨談談預付費租賃市場的發展演變?最終,正如你所說,這基本上抵消了 25D 取消帶來的影響。能談談這件事發生的節奏嗎?包括你自己的私人飛行員執照(PPL)專案?

  • And then separately, your commentary about essentially offsetting 25D, is that market-wide? And how do you think that playing out just timeline-wise?

    另外,您關於基本上抵消 25D 的評論,是指整個市場的情況嗎?你覺得從時間線上來看,這件事會如何發展?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. On the batteries and gross margins, especially with the tariffs now, the gross margins on batteries are slightly below corporate average. And what we'd like to do is to bring it above. And that's what I extensively talked about. It is -- today, we are -- I mean, we have 45% tariff on the cell packs that we get from China. And that is a tough number to work with in terms of margins. Plus, we have tariffs on other raw materials that are coming into the US, so we get hit many ways.

    是的。就電池和毛利率而言,尤其是在目前關稅的影響下,電池的毛利率略低於企業平均。而我們想做的就是把它提升到更高的層次。這就是我著重談論的內容。現在,我們對從中國進口的電池組徵收 45% 的關稅。就利潤率而言,這是一個很難控制的數字。此外,美國進口的其他原料還要繳關稅,所以我們受到多方面的影響。

  • We have recognized that the best way for us to counter that is with innovation. So that's why I talked extensively about the fifth-generation battery. Our cost structure will be radically different. So even with these tariffs, I can comfortably make even above corporate gross margins on my batteries.

    我們已經認識到,應對這種情況的最佳方法是創新。所以,這就是我詳細講解第五代電池的原因。我們的成本結構將會發生根本性的變化。所以即使加上這些關稅,我仍然可以輕鬆獲得高於公司平均毛利率的電池利潤。

  • We are not stopping there. We are already thinking about our sixth generation battery. So we'll share more as soon as the fifth-generation battery is out. So it's going to be a nice cadence for us. We have got to be -- I mean, we've got to bring out approximately every generation of battery -- every generation in 18 months, that's what we'd like to do.

    我們不會就此止步。我們已經在考慮第六代電池了。所以,一旦第五代電池上市,我們會分享更多。所以這對我們來說會是個不錯的節奏。我們必須——我的意思是,我們必須推出大約每一代電池——每一代電池,每 18 個月推出一代,這就是我們想做的。

  • So next question. On the PPL timeline, I mean -- it's early for us to share any timelines given that we are in the process of pilots. But the dream is that it is to replace the pre-25D loan TAM with prepaid lease. And there is still several things that have to be ironed out, that's what the pilots are doing. Operational issues, ease of doing business, customer and consumer confidence, installer performance, financing.

    下一個問題。關於 PPL 時間表,我的意思是——鑑於我們目前還在招募飛行員的過程中,現在分享任何時間表都為時過早。但我們的夢想是,用預付租賃取代 25D 之前的貸款 TAM。還有一些問題需要解決,飛行員們正在努力解決這些問題。營運問題、營商便利度、客戶與消費者信心、安裝人員表現、融資。

  • All of those, we are trying to solve with the pilots. And we are running in four states. So far, the installers -- installer feedback is very positive. They like the extra -- they like this prepaid release as a tool that helps them counter the TAM loss due to loan. So we like what we see so far.

    所有這些問題,我們都在努力與飛行員一起解決。我們將在四個州開展競選活動。到目前為止,安裝人員的回饋非常積極。他們喜歡這種額外的功能——他們喜歡這種預付釋放方式,因為它能幫助他們抵消貸款造成的TAM損失。所以,我們對目前為止所看到的都很滿意。

  • I think in the next three to six months, we will know everything. And we are confident that we'll be able to expand through a lot more states in that timeframe.

    我認為在接下來的三到六個月裡,我們將了解一切。我們有信心在那個時間範圍內將業務擴展到更多州。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • And your comment assumes you gain market share, or is that more about just the market overall?

    你的評論是基於你獲得市場佔有率的前提,還是只是指整個市場?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We do expect to gain market share.

    我們預期會獲得市場佔有率。

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

    Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks for clarifying. I appreciate it.

    謝謝你的解釋。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Moses Sutton, BNP Paribas.

    摩西‧薩頓,法國巴黎銀行。

  • Moses Sutton - Equity Analyst

    Moses Sutton - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks for squeezing me in. Badri, how many well-capitalized prepaid lease competitor programs are you seeing out there? And by competitor, I mean, that is a broader good thing as it would help stimulate the market, as Julien was noting.

    謝謝你擠出時間陪我。巴德里,你看到市面上有多少資金雄厚的預付租賃競爭項目?而我所說的競爭對手,我的意思是,這其實是件好事,因為它有助於刺激市場,正如朱利安所指出的。

  • And then also on the IQ9 residential, do you have -- do you expect a significantly slower uptake relative to the IQ7 to IQ8, considering its benefits rely on the larger panel format and the market is emerging still smaller panel sizes and they have to like sort of grow into the larger panels?

    另外,關於 IQ9 住宅版,考慮到它的優勢依賴於更大的面板尺寸,而市場正在湧現出更小的面板尺寸,他們必須逐步適應更大的面板,您是否預計它的普及速度會比 IQ7 到 IQ8 慢很多?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good questions. On the prepaid lease, it is still early days. We see -- I don't know the details personally about the remaining players, but I've heard their names. I've heard that some of them do a good job, but time will tell.

    問得好。關於預付租賃,目前仍處於起步階段。我看到——我個人並不了解其他球員的具體情況,但我聽說過他們的名字。我聽說他們有些人做得很好,但時間會證明一切。

  • On IQ9 -- and IQ9 addresses one more thing. It not only addresses higher power for 27 watts. It also addresses panels that operate at 16 amperes. So if you look at it in Europe, Europe is already starting to operate at 16 amperes right now. So IQ8 had the capability to go up to 14 amperes, and IQ9 will extend that capability to 16 and even 18 amperes. The IQ9S product that will be coming in the third quarter will extend it up to 18 amperes.

    關於 IQ9——而 IQ9 還涉及另一件事。它不僅可以解決 27 瓦的更高功率問題。它還涉及工作電流為 16 安培的太陽能電池板。所以如果你看看歐洲,你會發現歐洲現在已經開始以 16 安培的電流運作了。因此,IQ8 的電流能力最高可達 14 安培,而 IQ9 將將此能力擴展到 16 安培甚至 18 安培。第三季即將推出的 IQ9S 產品將把電流擴展到 18 安培。

  • So we believe Europe will be the first to ramp, along with Australia and the international. US is a little behind in terms of panel tech there. And so we expect in the US, IQ9 to ramp a little more slowly.

    因此,我們認為歐洲將率先加速成長,其次是澳洲和國際市場。美國在面板技術方面稍微落後一些。因此我們預計,在美國,IQ9 的成長速度會稍微慢一些。

  • However, in the commercial space, IQ9 is the only option. IQ9, 480 volts. There, the panels are at 595 watts to 640 watts. So there, IQ9 is the only option. And there, we are going not only the 427 watts can service the 480-volt market, the 548 that we will be introducing in the second or third quarter, that will also help a lot, including safe harbor.

    然而,在商業領域,IQ9 是唯一的選擇。IQ9,480伏特。那裡的太陽能電池板功率為 595 瓦至 640 瓦。所以,IQ9 是唯一的選擇。而且,我們不僅要推出 427 瓦的電源來滿足 480 伏特市場的需求,還要推出 548 瓦的電源,我們將在第二或第三季推出,這將對市場大有裨益,包括安全港條款。

  • Moses Sutton - Equity Analyst

    Moses Sutton - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you, very helpful. And maybe if I could squeeze one in on the Netherlands. Is there a potential for actually material pre-demand ahead of the loss of the net metering? Basically, most assume that, that story kicks off next year, but are you seeing that there's a significant amount of customers that don't want to see a gap in their solar systems' value next year so they want to self-consume early and therefore, they have to move this year?

    謝謝,很有幫助。或許我還能擠出時間寫一篇關於荷蘭的文章。在淨計量政策取消之前,是否存在實際的實質預需求?基本上,大多數人認為這個故事要到明年才會開始,但您是否注意到,有很多客戶不希望明年他們的太陽能係統價值出現缺口,所以他們想提前自用,因此他們必須在今年採取行動?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, there is -- yes, yes to that. I'll tell you why. First of all, if they have batteries now, they won't have to pay a penalty, one. Also, there is a nuance to it. There are several customers whose energy contracts will be expiring right now because they all have limited a one- to three-year contract.

    是的,確實有——沒錯,就是這樣。我來告訴你為什麼。首先,如果他們現在有電池,他們就不必支付罰款。此外,其中還有一些細微差別。目前有好幾位客戶的能源合約即將到期,因為他們的合約期限都只有一到三年。

  • So when they are going to sign a new contract for the next two years, they are going to know the full picture. The utility is going to give them the full picture of how the next two years are going to be. And in order for them to really get low rates, the only option they will have is to buy a battery. So I think the education is happening now.

    所以當他們要簽署未來兩年的新合約時,他們會了解全部。公用事業公司將向他們全面介紹未來兩年的情況。要真正獲得低利率,他們唯一的選擇就是購買電池。所以我認為教育正在發生。

  • Just to elaborate a little more on what we are doing -- and I'm not sure whether you heard my comments before, we are -- we have not done this before at Enphase. We are holding homeowner events. Every homeowner event is attended by approximately 200 to 300 people.

    為了更詳細地說明我們正在做的事情——我不確定你之前是否聽過我的話,我們——我們在 Enphase 以前從未這樣做過。我們正在舉辦業主活動。每次業主活動約有 200 至 300 人參加。

  • And let's say, from a family, two people show up, so approximately 150 families. And they basically get education. And there is a lot of interest in ordering batteries.

    假設一個家庭有兩人參加,那麼大約有 150 個家庭。他們基本上都能接受教育。很多人對訂購電池感興趣。

  • Preorders are usually quite high from such an event. Of course, 10 events is not representative of what is going to happen in the year. We plan to hold at least 100 events in 2026. And we plan to basically quantify. Every event should generate an average, let's say, X kilowatt hours, or let's say, something like 0.5 megawatt hours per event or 1 megawatt hour per event.

    這類活動的預購量通常都很高。當然,10 件事件並不能代表一年內將要發生的事。我們計劃在 2026 年舉辦至少 100 場活動。我們計劃進行量化分析。每次活動平均應產生一定量的電力,比如說 X 千瓦時,或每次活動產生 0.5 兆瓦時,或每次活動產生 1 兆瓦時。

  • And so that's how we are thinking. We are thinking that the first step that we have to do is to -- is actually education. So in that process, we are helping our installers. We are starting to do that. It's getting fantastic reception.

    這就是我們的想法。我們認為,我們必須採取的第一步實際上是教育。所以在這個過程中,我們也在幫助我們的安裝人員。我們正在開始這樣做。它獲得了極佳的反響。

  • In fact, our partners are also coming to our distributors. I'm now happy that we are doing an organic thing for lead generation instead of depending on only the installers. And the installers are happy because they are getting leads that they didn't plan on before, so yeah.

    事實上,我們的合作夥伴也正在聯繫我們的經銷商。現在我很高興我們採取了自然的方式來開發潛在客戶,而不是只依賴安裝人員。安裝人員很高興,因為他們獲得了之前沒有計劃的潛在客戶,所以,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vikram Bagri, Citi.

    Vikram Bagri,花旗集團。

  • Vikram Bagri - Analyst

    Vikram Bagri - Analyst

  • Good evening, everyone. Badri, you mentioned keep your partners have until July 4 to safe harbor. Could you share what the lead time to safe harbor is that you've seen recently? I imagine a month or more to safe harbor, which would mean TPOs have less time to decide than the deadline. And then wondering when should we expect the frenzy to begin based on that lead time?

    各位晚上好。巴德里,你提到過,你的合作夥伴可以在7月4日之前獲得安全港。能否分享一下您最近看到的安全港申請所需提前時間?我估計安全港期限可能有一個月或更長,這意味著第三方保護官員的決策時間比截止日期短。然後,我們就會想知道,根據這個提前期,我們應該預期搶購熱潮何時開始?

  • Related to that, based on what you've seen, is the safe harboring so far being done by the TPO partners? Is that being done expecting growth in forward years? Even all the drivers that you've mentioned rates, electricity price increases, policies, et cetera, or the TPO partners are conservatively to safe harbor in current volumes or multiple years so far?

    與此相關的是,根據你所看到的,到目前為止,TPO合作夥伴是否正在進行安全庇護?這樣做是為了預期未來幾年的成長嗎?即使是您提到的所有驅動因素,例如費率、電價上漲、政策等等,或者第三方支付機構合作夥伴,保守估計也能在目前的交易量或過去幾年中實現安全港目標嗎?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The question for the TPOs, which we cannot answer everything for them, but I'll just give you my opinion based on what we are seeing. For example, if they do the 5% method, let's say they got their order in December, let's say, the last week of December 2025. We would have approximately 105 days from that date to ship that product. That's how it works. And they still get all of the benefits because they place the order within the year -- within the end of the year. And they have to prepay us with the 5% method.

    對於轉會官員提出的問題,我們無法替他們回答所有問題,但我可以根據我們目前所看到的情況給出我的看法。例如,如果他們採用 5% 的方法,假設他們在 12 月收到了訂單,比方說,2025 年 12 月的最後一週。從該日期起,我們大約有 105 天的時間來發貨。就是這樣。而且他們仍然可以享受所有優惠,因為他們是在年內(年底前)下的訂單。他們必須以 5% 的方式預付我們款項。

  • With the physical work test, it is similar, but there is a nuance in terms of custom component, et cetera, which you already know.

    體力勞動測試與之類似,但在定制組件等方面存在一些細微差別,這一點您已經了解了。

  • The question on consumers taking into account future demand increases, I don't know. It is hard for them to take that into account, not -- no one really knows. So it's a real question for them.

    關於消費者是否會考慮未來需求成長的問題,我不清楚。他們很難考慮到這一點,因為——沒有人真正知道。所以這對他們來說是個很實際的問題。

  • My thought right now is I don't think that is happening, but that's just my guess.

    我現在的想法是,我覺得這事不會發生,但這只是我的猜測。

  • Vikram Bagri - Analyst

    Vikram Bagri - Analyst

  • Thanks, Badri. And as a follow-up, a quick housekeeping question on inventory. You mentioned healthy inventory exiting fourth quarter. Is that trailing 13 or 52 weeks? I ask because looking back, the inventory, the channel may be normal, but accounting for a drop in revenues in first quarter, it seems like the channel could be higher than like 10 days of inventory that you typically sort of like, keep. Is the inventory comment made on first-quarter revenues, excluding safe harbor or the inventory government is backward -- looking backward, looking 13 or 52 weeks?

    謝謝你,巴德里。最後,還有一個關於庫存的簡單問題。您提到第四季末庫存狀況良好。這是指過去 13 週還是 52 週?我這麼問是因為回顧過去,庫存和通路可能正常,但考慮到第一季收入下降,通路庫存似乎可能高於你通常喜歡保留的 10 天庫存。庫存評論是基於第一季收入(不包括安全港條款)還是基於政府的庫存政策——回顧過去,回顧 13 週或 52 週?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. If you calculate the inventory in terms of backward looking, then we are very, very lean. If you calculate the inventory based on forward-looking demand, we are normal. That's the way you should look at it.

    是的。如果以回顧性的方式計算庫存,那麼我們的庫存非常非常精簡。如果根據對未來需求的預測來計算庫存,我們的庫存水準正常。你應該這樣看待這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christine Cho, Barclays.

    Christine Cho,巴克萊銀行。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • Thank you for squeezing me in. Last quarter, you kind of said that you anticipated sell-through in 4Q to be 350 to 400. Just curious if you can sort of confirm that you landed there? And then if you would be able to give us the split between MIs and storage? And then also if you could give sort of that split for what you're expecting for 1Q ex the safe harbor revenue?

    謝謝你擠出時間幫我。上個季度,你曾表示預計第四季的銷量將達到 350 至 400。我只是好奇你能不能確認一下你確實降落在那裡?那麼,您能否提供一下MI和儲存之間的比例呢?另外,您能否也大致說明一下,您預期第一季(不包括安全港收入)的收入組成?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. We landed right at the midpoint there, between 350 and 375 -- I mean, 350 and 400 sell-through. So that's good. And then just on the split up, in fact, our sell-through on batteries was higher, was 27%. And the sell-through on microinverters was I think approximately --

    是的。我們最終的成交量正好在中間點,介於 350 和 375 之間——我的意思是,350 到 400 的成交量。那很好。事實上,單就電池而言,我們的銷售轉換率更高,達到了 27%。微型逆變器的銷售情況我認為大約是--

  • Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

    Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

  • 21%.

    21%。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Around 20%-ish.

    大約20%左右。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • I'm sorry, those percentages are up quarter over quarter?

    抱歉,這些百分比是比上季上升的嗎?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, 27% up. The sell-through in Q4 in the US, 27% up on batteries with respect to Q3. And sell-through of microinverters in the US, up approximately 20% with respect to Q3.

    是的,上漲了27%。美國第四季電池銷售額較第三季成長 27%。美國微型逆變器的銷量較第三季成長約 20%。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • And then the split for 1Q?

    那麼第一季的劃分情況如何呢?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Split for 1Q, we do not know.

    第一季的拆分情況,我們尚不清楚。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • But what about your sell-through expectations for 1Q? Just given --

    那麼,您對第一季的銷售預期如何?剛剛給予--

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are not going to break that out right now.

    我們現在不會公佈這個消息。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • Okay. And just sort of on the prepaid leases, I guess, when we do -- like with the deadline for safe harbor coming up, are you getting a sense of, at least with your partners, if they're leaning towards 5% or physical work test?

    好的。至於預付租賃,我想,當我們這樣做的時候——例如安全港期限即將到來,您是否至少從您的合作夥伴那裡了解到,他們傾向於 5% 還是實際工作測試?

  • And I guess, why -- do you have any sense of why they wouldn't lean more towards physical work test, just given it's easier on the balance sheet?

    我想問的是——您是否了解為什麼他們不更傾向於體力勞動測試,畢竟這樣對財務報表來說更容易呢?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That's right. I mean, I asked the same question, too, but it depends upon how comfortable they are with respect to they and their tax partners are. So yes, I mean, the physical work test, if gives them a legally good mechanism to take care of themselves for '28, '29, '30.

    這是正確的。我的意思是,我也問過同樣的問題,但這取決於他們對自己和稅務夥伴的信任程度。所以,是的,我的意思是,體力勞動測試,如果能為他們提供一個合法有效的機制來保障他們在 2028 年、2029 年和 2030 年的生活,那就太好了。

  • But what we are seeing is we are seeing a mix of both. We are seeing -- in some cases, we are seeing some TPO partners adopt a mix that is -- they do a portion, physical work test. They do a portion, 5% safe harbor. Some partners only rely on physical work test. It's a mix. There is no general trend.

    但我們現在看到的是兩者的混合體。我們看到——在某些情況下,我們看到一些 TPO 合作夥伴採用了一種混合模式,即——他們會進行一部分體力勞動測試。他們做了一部分,5% 的安全港。有些合作夥伴只依賴體力勞動測試。這是一種混合體。沒有普遍趨勢。

  • We are capable of providing either -- whatever the TPO wants, we are here to provide that. There was a misconception that Enphase cannot do physical work test, not true. We do physical work test, and we are engaged with the multiple TPO providers on that.

    我們能夠提供任何一種服務—無論第三方保護組織想要什麼,我們都能提供。之前有誤解,認為 Enphase 不能進行實體工作測試,這是不正確的。我們會進行體力勞動測試,我們與多家第三方醫療機構就此進行了合作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Chris Dendrinos, RBC Capital Markets.

    (操作員說明)克里斯·丹德里諾斯,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

    Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, good evening. I wanted to follow up on the commentary about terming reprice in Europe and your response to the competitive dynamic there. Can you maybe just comment on the demand impact from that? Are you seeing, I guess, any type of benefit there? Thanks.

    晚安.我想就歐洲術語重新定價的評論以及您對當地競爭動態的回應進行後續探討。您能否談談這對需求方面的影響?我想,你覺得這樣做有什麼好處嗎?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We expect to see some benefit there. We reduced the list prices at distributors by approximately 20% on our microinverters.

    我們預計會從中受益。我們將微型逆變器的分銷商標價降低了約 20%。

  • Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

    Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then maybe as you think about the US, I mean, is that a consideration in the US to potentially cut price as well? And I apologize, I know this gets asked every quarter.

    知道了。那麼,當你考慮美國市場時,我的意思是,美國是否也會考慮降低價格?我很抱歉,我知道這個問題每季都會被問到。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, it is -- we are always looking at it. And right now is the best time for us to help our installers. So we are always looking at it. We do an installer roundtable every week. We are carefully evaluating it. And when we think it is appropriate, we will do that, and we will inform you.

    是的。我的意思是,我們一直在關注它。現在正是我們幫助安裝人員的最佳時機。所以我們一直在關注這件事。我們每週都會舉行一次安裝人員圓桌會議。我們正在認真評估。當我們認為合適的時候,我們會這樣做,並會通知您。

  • Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

    Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Maheep Mandloi, Mizuho.

    Maheep Mandloi,瑞穗銀行。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

    Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks for squeezing me in as well. You talked about access to non-China battery supplier. Can you just talk about like the pricing environment you're seeing over there? A little more supply coming. Are we seeing costs come down over there, or it seems kind of stable for the next year or two there?

    謝謝你擠出時間陪我一起來。你談到如何獲得非中國電池供應商的供應。能談談您那邊的定價環境嗎?稍後會補貨一些。那邊的成本有下降的趨勢嗎?還是說未來一兩年內成本會維持穩定?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. In general, I think the battery suppliers are having some pressure on their costs. So I would say we aren't seeing huge price decreases. They are kind of flat.

    是的。總的來說,我認為電池供應商在成本方面面臨一定的壓力。所以我覺得我們沒有看到價格大幅下降。它們有點扁平。

  • When we move from China to non-China, we would expect about anywhere about 20% increase in the cell pack pricing to us, 20% to 25%. So for example, if there is a 45% tariff on product from China and there's 0% from a non-China country, it would make sense. So that's what we took into account. And we are working with the battery cell suppliers that will enable us in the non-China market -- or in the non-China battery manufacturing. We expect to start ramping that in the second quarter.

    當我們從中國轉向非中國市場時,我們預計電池組價格將上漲約 20%,漲幅在 20% 到 25% 之間。例如,如果對來自中國的產品徵收 45% 的關稅,而對來自非中國國家的產品徵收 0% 的關稅,那就說得通了。所以,這就是我們考慮的因素。我們正在與電池供應商合作,這將使我們能夠進入中國以外的市場——或者說,進入中國以外的電池製造領域。我們預計將在第二季開始逐步擴大規模。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

    Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Gus Richard, Northland.

    (操作說明)Gus Richard,北地。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the question. Inventory on the balance sheet was up $99 million sequentially quite a bit. Days of inventory went up quite a bit. And I'm just wondering if you could walk me through why that happened?

    感謝您回答這個問題。資產負債表上的存貨較上月增加了9,900萬美元,增幅相當大。庫存週轉天數大幅增加。我只是想問一下,您能否解釋為什麼會發生這種情況?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. What we did was we basically -- in order to ensure FEOC compliance, we took ownership of the inventory from our contract manufacturer. And so everything was clean. And so we did that in the fourth quarter. That factory exists for us. We are managing the factory. And we -- it was a little high, like what you state, $100 million more, but we expect to continuously bring that down. Our operations had -- and mean we are laser focused on inventory, and we have clear plans to get that down.

    是的。我們所做的,基本上是——為了確保符合FEOC規定,我們從合約製造商那裡收回了庫存的所有權。所以一切都很乾淨。所以我們在第四季就這麼做了。那家工廠是為我們而建的。我們負責工廠的管理。正如你所說,這個數字確實有點高,多了 1 億美元,但我們預計會持續降低這個數字。我們的營運過去是——現在也是——意味著我們非常注重庫存,並且我們有明確的計劃來降低庫存。

  • Gus Richard - Analyst

    Gus Richard - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. And then on the fourth-generation battery, I understand that the tear loss is relatively high as what it is with your competitors. I'm just wondering if you're going to address that in the Gen 5 battery? And is that a concern with your customers?

    好的。知道了。而且,據我了解,第四代電池的損耗率相對較高,與你們的競爭對手相比也是如此。我只是想知道你們是否會在第五代電池中解決這個問題?您的客戶是否也擔心這個問題?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • It is a general concern with all batteries. And the tear loss is something important. Just for the benefit of everybody, a tear loss is how much of power the circuitry inside the battery consumes, not what is supplied or not what is provided to the loads in the home. So it is -- a tear loss is a wasted energy is what we call it, is unusable energy. So we recognize that we have introduced a new feature called PowerMatch.

    這是所有電池普遍存在的問題。淚液流失是一個很重要的問題。為了讓大家明白,損耗是指電池內部電路消耗的電量,而不是提供給家庭負載的電量或未提供的電量。沒錯──眼淚流失是一種能量浪費,我們稱之為無法利用的能量。因此,我們意識到我們引入了一項名為 PowerMatch 的新功能。

  • PowerMatch is a technology -- software-enabled technology that dynamically matches the output of the battery to real-time home demand. What does that mean is only whatever microinverters are necessary to be on are on. The rest of the microinverters are switched off. So battery life improves, usable energy improves.

    PowerMatch 是一種技術——一種軟體技術,它可以動態地將電池的輸出與家庭的即時需求相匹配。這意味著只有必要的微型逆變器才會開啟。其餘微型逆變器均已關閉。因此,電池續航時間延長,可用能量增加。

  • If you contrast it -- compare and contrast towards hybrid inverters or hybrid systems, hybrid systems have a single large inverter. So especially when the customer is operating with very low consumption, that burns a lot of unnecessary power or wastes a lot of power. While in the case of an Enphase battery, PowerMatch basically activates only the microinverters that are necessary.

    如果將其與混合逆變器或混合系統進行比較,混合系統只有一個大型逆變器。因此,尤其是當客戶以非常低的能耗運作時,會消耗大量不必要的電力或浪費大量電力。而對於 Enphase 電池來說,PowerMatch 基本上只啟動必要的微型逆變器。

  • For example, in the home is consuming 500 watts, we are not going to burn a 10-kilowatt inverter. We are only going to turn on, let's say, a kilowatt what often inverter that we have. And the rest of the inverters are going to be off.

    例如,如果家庭用電量為 500 瓦,我們不會燒壞一個 10 千瓦的逆變器。我們只會啟動,比如說,我們常用的那台一千瓦的逆變器。其餘的逆變器都將關閉。

  • Similarly, if there are multiple batteries which are not required to be on, they will all be off. So PowerMatch helps in reducing losses at low loads. And we have found approximately a 40% improvement compared to competition.

    同樣地,如果有多顆電池不需要開啟,它們都會關閉。因此,PowerMatch有助於減少低負載下的損耗。與競爭對手相比,我們發現效能提升了約 40%。

  • So we issued a press release I think late in Q4, very nice video on PowerMatch that explains exactly how it works. And PowerMatch will -- is a big integral part of the first generation battery as well. And the microinverter architecture has got an intrinsic advantage here.

    所以,我們在第四季度末發布了一份新聞稿,還有一個非常棒的關於 PowerMatch 的視頻,詳細解釋了它的工作原理。PowerMatch 也是第一代電池的重要組成部分。微型逆變器架構在這方面有內在優勢。

  • Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

    Raghu Belur - Senior Vice President, Co-Founder, Chief Products Officer

  • If I may, the modularity is not just for rightsizing the battery to a home. You can now use that leverage the modularity to rightsize how much power you're using in real time. So it's an incredible advantage that a decentralized or a distributed architecture like what Enphase has brings to the table to make sure that your delivery of power is very -- done very efficiently. You're not wasting power because you have a tear loss and a large inverter just running all the time, even though the demand of the house may be one-tenth of what the capacity of that large inverter is.

    恕我直言,模組化設計不僅僅是為了根據家庭需求調整電池容量。現在您可以利用模組化設計,即時調整您使用的功率大小。因此,像 Enphase 這樣的去中心化或分散式架構帶來了巨大的優勢,確保電力傳輸非常有效率。即使房屋的用電需求可能只有該大型逆變器容量的十分之一,你也不會因為存在損耗和大型逆變器一直運作而浪費電力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Dimple Gosalia (sic - Dimple Gosai), Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)Dimple Gosalia(原文如此 - Dimple Gosai),美國銀行。

  • Dimple Gosai - Analyst

    Dimple Gosai - Analyst

  • Hi there. Good evening. Thanks for getting me in here. One question as it relates to the prepaid leases. What is the attach rate for batteries in your opinion? And how does that kind of compare to the cash and loan channels?

    你好呀。晚安.謝謝你讓我進來。關於預付租賃,我有一個問題。您認為電池的附著率是多少?那麼,這種方式與現金和貸款管道相比如何呢?

  • And just as a follow-up, what kind of changes the attach rate most? Do you think it's more about like payment structure or the system sizing or maybe even the utility tariff design. Any views on that?

    最後再補充一點,哪些類型的變化對附加率的影響最大?你認為這與支付結構、系統規模,甚至是公用事業收費標準設計有關嗎?對此有什麼看法?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sorry, it's just too early for us to answer. But I mean, the obvious answer in California, it's -- we expect it to be 100% attached in California.

    抱歉,現在回答這個問題還為時過早。但我的意思是,在加州,顯而易見的答案是——我們預計在加州它將 100% 附著在身上。

  • We don't have enough for a presentation, not enough statistics from other states to tell you meaningfully. So hopefully, in another three months, we'll be able to share a lot more.

    我們沒有足夠的資料進行演示,也沒有足夠的其他州的統計數據來提供有意義的資訊。所以,希望再過三個月,我們就能跟大家分享更多資訊了。

  • Dimple Gosai - Analyst

    Dimple Gosai - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Badri Kothandaraman for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給巴德里·科坦達拉曼,請他作總結發言。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for joining us today and for your continued support of Enphase. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Bye.

    感謝您今天蒞臨現場,也感謝您一直以來對 Enphase 的支持。我們期待下個季度再次與您交流。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。