Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Enphase Energy 公佈了強勁的 2025 年第二季財務業績,營收達 3.632 億美元,並在美國和國際市場實現成長。該公司正致力於擴大產品供應、降低安裝成本並簡化安裝人員的操作。該公司預計 2026 年太陽能總潛在市場將下降 20%,並正在實施策略性舉措以應對這一下滑趨勢。

Enphase 致力於為現有客戶提供創新解決方案,並在澳洲、印度和日本看到了成長機會。他們正在開發新產品以提高利潤率,並與 TPO 合作夥伴合作以提升市場佔有率。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the Enphase Energy's second-quarter 2025 financial results call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Enphase Energy 2025 年第二季財務業績電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Zach Freedman. Please go ahead.

    現在我想將會議交給扎克·弗里德曼。請繼續。

  • Zachary Freedman - Head of Investor Relations

    Zachary Freedman - Head of Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Enphase Energy second-quarter 2025 results. On today's call are Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Mandy Yang, our Chief Financial Officer; and Raghu Belur, Chief Products Officer.

    下午好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議,討論 Enphase Energy 2025 年第二季的業績。參加今天電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Badri Kothandaraman、我們的財務長 Mandy Yang 和首席產品長 Raghu Belur。

  • After the market closed today, Enphase issued a press release announcing the results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2025. During this conference call, Enphase management we'll make forward-looking statements including but not limited to statements related to our expected future financial performance, market trends, the capabilities of our technology and products and the benefits to homeowners and installers, our operations including manufacturing, customer service, and supply and demand, anticipated growth in existing and new markets, the timing of new product introductions and regulatory tax, tariff, and supply chain matters.

    今天收盤後,Enphase 發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的第二季業績。在本次電話會議中,Enphase 管理層將做出前瞻性陳述,包括但不限於與我們預期的未來財務業績、市場趨勢、我們的技術和產品的能力以及對房主和安裝人員的利益、我們的營運(包括製造、客戶服務和供需)、現有和新市場的預期增長、新產品推出的時間以及監管稅、關稅和供應事事相關的陳述。

  • These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties in our actual results and the timing of events could differ materially from these expectations. For more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent form 10-K and 10-Qs filed with the SEC. We caution you not to place any undue reliance on forward-looking statements and undertake no duty or obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or changes in expectations.

    這些前瞻性陳述涉及我們實際結果的重大風險和不確定性,事件發生的時間可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關風險和不確定性的更完整討論,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 和 10-Q 表格。我們提醒您不要過度依賴前瞻性陳述,並且不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或預期變更而更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任或義務。

  • Also, please note the financial measures used on this call are expressed on a non-GAAP basis unless otherwise noted and have been adjusted to exclude certain charges. We have provided a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release furnished with the SEC on Form 8-K, which can also be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    此外,請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中使用的財務指標均以非 GAAP 為基礎表示,並且已進行調整以排除某些費用。我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格收益報告中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表,您也可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分找到該對帳表。

  • Now, I'd like to introduce Badri Kothandaraman, our President and Chief Executive Officer. Badri?

    現在,我想介紹我們的總裁兼執行長巴德里·科坦達拉曼 (Badri Kothandaraman)。巴德里?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today to discuss our second-quarter 2025 financial results. We reported quarterly revenue of $363.2 million, shipped 1.53 million microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of battery, and generated free cash flow of $18.4 million. Our Q2 revenue included $40.4 million of Safe Harbor revenue.

    下午好,感謝您今天加入我們討論我們的 2025 年第二季財務業績。我們報告的季度收入為 3.632 億美元,出貨了 153 萬台微型逆變器和 190.9 兆瓦時的電池,並產生了 1,840 萬美元的自由現金流。我們第二季的收入包括 4,040 萬美元的安全港收入。

  • As we exited Q2, our battery channel inventory was normal, while a microinverter channel inventory was slightly elevated. For the second quarter, we delivered 49% gross margin, 21% operating expenses, and 27% operating income, all as a percentage of revenue on a non-GAAP basis and including the net IRA benefit. Mandy will go into our financials later in the call. Our global customer service NPS was 79% in Q2 compared to 77% in Q1. The average call wait time decreased 1.8 minutes, largely due to staffing and continued investment in automation.

    當我們退出第二季度時,我們的電池渠道庫存正常,而微型逆變器渠道庫存略有上升。第二季度,我們的毛利率為 49%,營業費用為 21%,營業收入為 27%,以上皆為非 GAAP 基礎的收入百分比,其中包括淨 IRA 收益。曼迪稍後將在電話會議中討論我們的財務狀況。我們第二季的全球客戶服務 NPS 為 79%,而第一季為 77%。平均呼叫等待時間減少了 1.8 分鐘,這主要歸功於人員配備和對自動化的持續投資。

  • Let's cover operations. Our global capacity is around 7 million microinverters per quarter, with 5 million in the US. In Q2, we shipped approximately 1.41 million microinverters from our US contract manufacturers, booking 45x production tax credits. Our domestically produced microinverters help residential lease PPA providers and commercial asset owners to qualify for the 10% domestic content ITC adder. We expect to ship approximately 1.2 million microinverters from the US in Q3.

    讓我們來討論一下操作。我們的全球產能約為每季 700 萬台微型逆變器,其中美國為 500 萬台。在第二季度,我們從美國合約製造商處發貨了約 141 萬台微型逆變器,獲得了 45 倍的生產稅收抵免。我們國產的微型逆變器可協助住宅租賃 PPA 提供者和商業資產所有者獲得 10% 國內內容 ITC 加成的資格。我們預計第三季將從美國出貨約 120 萬台微型逆變器。

  • We grew our domestic battery production in Q2, shipping 46.9 megawatt hours compared to 44.1 megawatt hours in Q1. We are building the IQ Battery 5P in the US using domestic domestically manufactured microinverters, thermal and battery management systems, as well as packaging, while sourcing cell packs from China. These batteries with greater than 45% domestic content once again, can help our lead and PPA customers qualify for ITC bonuses.

    我們第二季的國內電池產量有所成長,出貨量為 46.9 兆瓦時,而第一季為 44.1 兆瓦時。我們正在美國製造 IQ Battery 5P,使用國內製造的微型逆變器、熱和電池管理系統以及包裝,同時從中國採購電池組。這些電池的國產化率超過 45%,可以幫助我們的鉛和 PPA 客戶獲得 ITC 獎金。

  • We remain on track to have non-China cells by the end of this year, scaling into battery builds during the first half of 2026. Our US made batteries with non-China cells can help customers qualify for domestic content ITC bonuses and meet foreign entity of concern, or FIAC compliance, as the criteria become increasingly stringent every year.

    我們仍有望在今年底前擁有非中國電池,並在 2026 年上半年擴大電池生產規模。我們採用美國製造且採用非中國電芯的電池,可以幫助客戶獲得國內成分 ITC 獎金,並滿足關注的外國實體或 FIAC 合規性,因為標準每年都變得越來越嚴格。

  • Let's cover tariffs. In Q2, we observed a 2% gross margin impact due to tariffs. The originally proposed 145% tariff on Chinese products was ultimately reduced to 30% in May. As a result, our expected 6% to 8% margin headwind in Q3 has improved to an estimated 3% to 5%, even after accounting for the new tariff increases on several non-China countries which are going to be effective August 1. This progress is the direct result of our team's relentless execution in diversifying our supply chain. We are not only mitigating tariff risks, we are future-proofing our operations and positioning Enphase to lead under tightening FIAC compliance rules.

    讓我們討論一下關稅。在第二季度,我們觀察到關稅對毛利率產生了 2% 的影響。最初提議的針對中國產品的145%的關稅最終在5月降至30%。因此,即使考慮到 8 月 1 日將對幾個非中國國家實施的新關稅上調,我們預計第三季利潤率將面臨 6% 至 8% 的逆風,但這一數字已改善至 3% 至 5%。這項進步是我們團隊堅持不懈地實現供應鏈多元化的直接結果。我們不僅要降低關稅風險,還要確保我們的營運面向未來,並使 Enphase 在日益嚴格的 FIAC 合規規則下保持領先。

  • Let's cover the regions. Our US and international revenue mix for Q2 was 75% and 25% respectively. In the US, our revenue increased 3% in Q2 compared to Q1, primarily due to higher seasonal demand, partially offset by lower Safe Harbor revenue of $40.4 million compared to $54 million in Q1. The overall pull through of our products was up 17% in Q2 as compared to Q1.

    讓我們覆蓋各個地區。我們第二季的美國和國際營收佔比分別為 75% 和 25%。在美國,我們的第二季營收較第一季成長了 3%,這主要歸因於季節性需求增加,但安全港營收從第一季的 5,400 萬美元下降至 4,040 萬美元,這部分抵銷了這一成長。與第一季相比,我們第二季產品的整體銷售量成長了 17%。

  • Let me some brief comments on the market. The US solar market is showing signs of improvement with rising battery-attached rates and seasonal demand contributing to increased momentum. While we haven't yet seen a material rush related to the expiring 25D homeowner tax credit, we expect a gen fee to build later in the year as more consumers move to secure the credit.

    讓我對市場做一些簡短的評論。美國太陽能市場正顯示出改善的跡象,電池附加率的上升和季節性需求推動了成長動能。雖然我們尚未看到與即將到期的 25D 房主稅收抵免相關的實質熱潮,但隨著越來越多的消費者採取行動獲得抵免,我們預計今年稍後會產生費用。

  • As we head into 2026, the US solar industry must evolve rapidly in response to the recent tax reconciliation bill. First, we expect an accelerated shift toward leases and PPA anchored by the 48E tax credit through 2027. Second, batteries will become central to every solar cell propelled by declining installation costs, long-term credit tax credit support through 2033, and growing homeowner demand for energy resilience and participation in VPPs. Third, the industry must drive down customer acquisition and selling costs to remain competitive in a maturing market.

    隨著我們邁入2026年,美國太陽能產業必須根據最近的稅收協調法案迅速發展。首先,我們預計到 2027 年,在 48E 稅收抵免的支撐下,租賃和 PPA 的轉變將加速。其次,由於安裝成本下降、到 2033 年的長期信貸稅收抵免支持以及房主對能源彈性和參與 VPP 的需求不斷增長,電池將成為每個太陽能電池的核心。第三,該產業必須降低客戶獲取和銷售成本,才能在成熟的市場中保持競爭力。

  • We believe the structural shifts, coupled with the utility rates and increasing grid in stability, create a tailwind for sustained demand in the residential solar plus storage. Enphase is executing a multi-pronged strategy to lead the industry through these transitions. We are partnering closely with third-party owners, RPPOs, to design innovative financing structures that maximize tax credit capture under the new rules. Our goal is to expand lease financing availability across a much wider installer base, including smaller- and mid-size players.

    我們相信,結構性變化,加上公用事業費率和電網穩定性的提高,將為住宅太陽能和儲能的持續需求創造順風。Enphase 正在實施多管齊下的策略,以引領產業完成這些轉變。我們正在與第三方所有者(RPPO)密切合作,設計創新的融資結構,以在新規則下最大限度地獲得稅收抵免。我們的目標是擴大租賃融資的可用性,以涵蓋更廣泛的安裝商群體,包括中小型安裝商。

  • By removing friction in financing and by broadening access, we aim to accelerate residential adoption and ensured that more homeowners can participate in the clean energy transition. Our battery technology road map has been advancing rapidly with the laser focus on driving down installation costs and unlocking scale.

    透過消除融資摩擦和擴大准入,我們的目標是加速住宅採用並確保更多房主能夠參與清潔能源轉型。我們的電池技術路線圖一直在快速推進,重點是降低安裝成本和擴大規模。

  • In June, we began shipping our fourth-generation battery systems in the US, cutting backup costs by several thousand dollars. Our fifth-generation battery is already under development and is expected to deliver a 50% increase in energy density and a major cost reduction, pushing the boundaries of performance and affordability. When paired with the next-generation IQ9 Microinverters which are launching later this year, we expect to deliver one of the most compelling and integrated solar-plus battery solutions in the industry designed to meet the needs of both homeowners and installers at scale.

    6 月份,我們開始在美國發售第四代電池系統,從而將備用成本降低了數千美元。我們的第五代電池已在開發中,預計能量密度將提高 50%,成本將大幅降低,突破性能和可承受性的界限。當與今年稍後推出的下一代 IQ9 微型逆變器搭配使用時,我們期望提供業內最引人注目和整合度最高的太陽能電池解決方案之一,旨在滿足房主和安裝人員的大規模需求。

  • Finally, we are doubling down on our installer services platform to aggressively reduce soft costs across the industry. With Solargraf, our all-in-one design and proposal platform; SolarLeadFactory, our performance-driven lead generation engine; and Enphase Care, our 24x7 expert-backed homeowner support program, we offer a unique integrated tool kit to streamline operations, cut acquisition costs, and boost installer productivity.

    最後,我們加倍投入安裝服務平台,積極降低整個產業的軟成本。借助 Solargraf(我們的一體化設計和提案平台)、SolarLeadFactory(我們的性能驅動的潛在客戶生成引擎)以及 Enphase Care(我們的全天候專家支援的房主支援計劃),我們提供獨特的整合工具包來簡化營運、降低採購成本並提高安裝人員的工作效率。

  • We believe these assets position Enphase not just as a technology provider but as a full-stack partner to help the industry scale more efficiently. We are executing with urgency and look forward to sharing the progress in quarters ahead.

    我們相信,這些資產使 Enphase 不僅成為技術提供商,而且成為全端合作夥伴,幫助產業更有效地擴展規模。我們正在緊急執行,並期待在未來幾季分享進展。

  • In Europe, our revenue increased 11% in Q2 compared to Q1, while our overall pull through increased by 5%. The overall business environment across the region is still challenging but we are maintaining our discipline on controlling the channel as well as expanding our available market by introducing new products.

    在歐洲,我們第二季的營收較第一季成長了 11%,而整體獲利成長了 5%。整個地區的整體商業環境仍然充滿挑戰,但我們仍在控制通路方面保持紀律,並透過推出新產品來擴大可用市場。

  • I'll now provide some additional color on our key markets in Europe, the Netherlands. France, Germany, and UK. In the Netherlands, demand remains soft in Q2, as the market transitions from a solar -- from solar-only systems to integrated-solar-plus-battery solutions. This ship is accelerating due to rising export penalties and the plan sunset of net metering at the end of 2026.

    現在我將對我們在歐洲的主要市場荷蘭提供一些額外的資訊。法國、德國和英國。在荷蘭,隨著市場從僅太陽能係統向綜合太陽能加電池解決方案轉型,第二季的需求仍然疲軟。由於出口罰款不斷增加以及 2026 年底淨計量計畫的終止,這艘船正在加速航行。

  • We are uniquely positioned to lead in this evolving landscape with an installed base of approximately 500,000 residential solar systems. As net metering phases out in the Netherlands, we believe homeowners will increasingly turn to batteries, not only to maximize self-consumption and backup power, but also to participate in VPP programs that offer new value streams in retail energy markets. This transition can unlock a compelling $2 billion market and represents a strategic opportunity for us to deepen our utility partnerships, scale battery deployments, and drive growth across the region.

    我們擁有獨特的優勢,可以引領這一不斷發展的產業格局,目前已安裝約 50 萬個住宅太陽能係統。隨著荷蘭淨計量的逐步取消,我們相信房主將越來越多地轉向電池,不僅是為了最大限度地提高自用和備用電源,也是為了參與在零售能源市場提供新價值流的 VPP 計劃。這一轉變可以打開一個引人注目的 20 億美元市場,並為我們深化公用事業合作夥伴關係、擴大電池部署和推動整個地區成長提供了戰略機會。

  • In France, the market remained subdued in Q2 as expected, with the industry anticipating a significant reduction in VAT on solar systems which is set to take effect in October. This policy change is expected to reignite demand. Despite the current slowdown, France remains very critical for us, driven by a strong brand technology leadership and the country's relatively low solar penetration.

    在法國,市場在第二季度仍然保持低迷,正如預期的那樣,業內人士預計太陽能係統的增值稅將大幅降低,該政策將於 10 月生效。預計這項政策變化將重新激發需求。儘管目前經濟放緩,但法國對我們來說仍然至關重要,這得益於其強大的品牌技術領導力和相對較低的太陽能滲透率。

  • We are seeing a very meaningful uptick in battery demand, spurred by low feed-in tariffs. That makes self-consumption far more valuable. Our IQ Battery 5P with full backup capability has been well received by both homeowners and installers. In May, we introduced intelligent hot water heater steering to further boost self-consumption and savings. This feature is expected to become a key driver in the French market, where heating water represents a substantial portion of household energy use. With these building blocks in place, we believe we are well-positioned to capitalize on the next wave of growth in solar-plus battery adoption in France.

    受低上網電價的刺激,我們看到電池需求出現了非常顯著的成長。這使得自我消費變得更有價值。我們的具有完整備用功能的 IQ Battery 5P 受到了房主和安裝人員的一致好評。五月份,我們推出了智慧熱水器轉向系統,以進一步促進自用和儲蓄。預計這項功能將成為法國市場的主要驅動力,因為法國家庭能源消耗中很大一部分用於加熱水。有了這些基礎,我們相信我們已經準備好利用法國太陽能電池應用的下一波成長浪潮。

  • In Germany, we are ramping sales of our IQ Battery 5P with Flex Phase and IQ EV Charger 2, both of which are gaining strong momentum with homeowners seeking all-in-one solution. We also launched our IQ Balcony Solar Systems in Q2, unlocking a fast-growing market segment for renters and apartment dwellers. These innovations, combined with our deep partnership with some of the top installers, are helping us return to growth and expand our presence in a strategically important market.

    在德國,我們正在增加 IQ Battery 5P with Flex Phase 和 IQ EV Charger 2 的銷量,這兩款產品在尋求一體化解決方案的房主中都獲得了強勁發展勢頭。我們也在第二季推出了 IQ Balcony 太陽能係統,為租屋者和公寓居民開闢了一個快速成長的市場領域。這些創新,加上我們與一些頂級安裝商的深度合作,正在幫助我們恢復成長並擴大我們在具有戰略重要性的市場中的影響力。

  • The UK market continues to perform well for us as we strengthen our relationships with retail energy providers in the region and our robust API platform is proving invaluable and supporting them. We are shaping our IQ EV Charger to -- into the market and plan to also introduce backup capability for our batteries in Q3 of this year, further expanding our energy resilience offering in the region.

    隨著我們加強與該地區零售能源供應商的關係,英國市場繼續表現良好,我們強大的 API 平台被證明是無價的並為他們提供支援。我們正在將我們的 IQ EV 充電器推向市場,並計劃在今年第三季為我們的電池引入備用功能,進一步擴大我們在該地區的能源彈性產品。

  • In Australia, momentum is building with the July 1 rebate from the government fueling strong interest in battery. We are gearing up to launch our IQ Battery 5P with Flex Phase in the country, imminently delivering powerful three-phase backup and flexible power in order to meet dynamic DSO requirements. Our IQ8P Microinverters are also set to launch soon, supporting the latest high-power solar module in both residential and commercial markets.

    在澳大利亞,隨著政府於 7 月 1 日開始的退稅政策,人們對電池的興趣日益濃厚。我們正準備在該國推出具有 Flex Phase 的 IQ Battery 5P,即將提供強大的三相備用電源和靈活的電源,以滿足動態 DSO 要求。我們的IQ8P微型逆變器也即將推出,支援住宅和商業市場的最新高功率太陽能模組。

  • We have also introduced our next-generation IQ EV Chargers expanding our electrification offerings. To simplify retrofit installations, we are enabling compatibility between IQ7 and IQ8 Microinverters on the same branch circuit, improving installer productivity and accelerating adoption.

    我們也推出了下一代 IQ EV 充電器,擴展了我們的電氣化產品。為了簡化改造安裝,我們在同一分支電路上實現了 IQ7 和 IQ8 微型逆變器之間的相容,從而提高了安裝人員的工作效率並加快了採用速度。

  • Let's turn to our Q3 guidance. We expect revenue to be in the range of $330 million to $370 million. We anticipate continued growth in the US and seasonal softness in Europe. We are approximately 75% booked to the midpoint of our revenue guidance.

    讓我們來看看第三季的指引。我們預計營收將在 3.3 億美元至 3.7 億美元之間。我們預計美國經濟將持續成長,而歐洲經濟將出現季節性疲軟。我們的預訂量已達到預期收入的中點的約 75%。

  • For IQ Batteries, we expect to shift between 190 and 210 megawatt hours during the quarter. We are actively engaged with several TPO partners who are awaiting further clarity on Safe Harbor rules following the recent executive order and we remain well positioned to support them once they finalize their plans.

    對於 IQ Batteries,我們預計本季的產量將在 190 至 210 兆瓦時之間。我們正與幾位 TPO 合作夥伴積極接觸,他們正在等待最近的行政命令後安全港規則的進一步明確,一旦他們最終確定計劃,我們仍將全力支持他們。

  • Let's talk about new products starting with IQ Batteries. In June, we began shipping our fourth-generation battery systems to the US. The new battery delivers 30% more energy density, occupies 62% lesser wall space, and reduces installation cost. Our IQ Meter Collar simplifies whole home back up by integrating MID functionality, while the new combiner unifies the connection of solar batteries, EV charging, and load control into a single enclosure.

    讓我們從 IQ Batteries 開始討論新產品。六月,我們開始向美國運送第四代電池系統。新電池的能量密度提高了 30%,佔用的牆壁空間減少了 62%,並且降低了安裝成本。我們的 IQ Meter Collar 透過整合 MID 功能簡化了整個家庭的備份,而新的組合器將太陽能電池、電動車充電和負載控制的連接統一到一個外殼中。

  • Together, these innovations simplify backup installation, improve reliability, and deliver superior homeowner value. The Meter Collar is now approved by 29 US utilities and growing. And as I noted earlier, we believe our aggressive battery road map beyond the fourth generation will continue to push boundaries on performance, integration, and cost. Our IQ batteries are built for more than just back up; they are designed to earn.

    這些創新共同簡化了備份安裝、提高了可靠性並為房主帶來了更高的價值。目前,電錶領已獲得 29 家美國公用事業公司的批准,且批准數量仍在增加。正如我之前提到的,我們相信,我們第四代之後的積極電池路線圖將繼續突破性能、整合和成本的界限。我們的 IQ 電池不只是用於備用;它們的設計目的是賺錢。

  • With advanced APIs, our batteries can seamlessly integrate into VPPs in regulated markets like the US and participate in wholesale energy markets and deregulated regions such as Europe and Australia. Together, we are actively engaged in over 50 VPP programs worldwide with 210 megawatt hours of Enphase batteries enrolled, unlocking new revenue streams for homeowners and accelerating the transition to a more flexible, resilient grid.

    借助先進的 API,我們的電池可以無縫整合到美國等受監管市場的 VPP 中,並參與歐洲和澳洲等批發能源市場和放鬆管制的地區。我們積極參與全球 50 多個 VPP 項目,其中 Enphase 電池容量達 210 兆瓦時,為房主開闢了新的收入來源,並加速向更靈活、更有彈性的電網過渡。

  • Let's talk about microinverters. Our IQ8 Microinverter family is now deployed in 58 countries and growing. Building on this global momentum, we are preparing to launch IQ9, our most-advanced microinverter yet. Powered by cutting edge gallium nitride technology, IQ9 is built for the future, supporting higher VC input currents, higher AC voltages, and three-phase compatibility. With full 27 watt peak output, IQ9 is optimized for pairing with the most powerful residential and commercial panels on the market.

    讓我們來談談微型逆變器。我們的 IQ8 微型逆變器系列目前已部署在 58 個國家/地區,並且還在持續成長中。藉此全球勢頭,我們正準備推出迄今為止最先進的微型逆變器 IQ9。IQ9 採用尖端氮化鎵技術,面向未來打造,支援更高的 VC 輸入電流、更高的 AC 電壓和三相相容性。IQ9 擁有 27 瓦的峰值輸出,可與市場上最強大的住宅和商業面板配對。

  • Internal pilots are already running at Enphase facilities and we remain on track for full-scale production in Q4. We believe IQ9 marks a major leap in performance and flexibility and, importantly, unlocks the 2 gigawatt-market opportunity by enabling us to serve 480 volts, three-phase commercial systems in the US for the first time.

    Enphase 工廠已開始進行內部試點,我們仍有望在第四季度實現全面生產。我們相信 IQ9 標誌著性能和靈活性的重大飛躍,更重要的是,它使我們能夠首次在美國為 480 伏特三相商用系統提供服務,從而開啟了 2 千兆瓦的市場機會。

  • Our commercial IQ8P-3P Microinverters is building momentum with over 850 commercial sites deployed across the US averaging 35 kilowatts per system and earning consistent positive feedback from the field. These 208-volt, three-phase microinverters now ship with US domestic content, enabling the customers to benefit from the 10% ICC bonus error, a significant edge for commercial asset owners.

    我們的商用 IQ8P-3P 微型逆變器發展勢頭強勁,已在全美部署了 850 多個商業站點,平均每個系統 35 千瓦,並獲得了現場一致的積極反饋。這些 208 伏特三相微型逆變器現在配備美國國內產品,使客戶能夠享受 10% 的 ICC 獎勵誤差,這對商業資產所有者來說是一個顯著的優勢。

  • Both IQ8P-3P and IQ9 Microinverters are expected to meet FIAC compliance, offering a powerful alternative in a market still dominated by Chinese equipment. The timing of IQ9 launch is strategic, delivering a high-quality, reliable, and policy-aligned solution as the industry pivots towards a domestically compliant infrastructure.

    IQ8P-3P 和 IQ9 微型逆變器預計都符合 FIAC 標準,為仍由中國設備主導的市場提供強大的替代方案。IQ9 的推出時機具有戰略意義,在產業轉向符合國內標準的基礎設施之際,它提供了高品質、可靠且符合政策的解決方案。

  • Let me come to Balcony Solar. Our IQ Balcony Solar product is now shipping into Germany and Belgium with additional launches planned across Europe, Japan, India, and Utah in the next few quarters. Built on Enphase's AC architecture, it enables homeowners to plug in anywhere between one and four panels directly into a standard wall outlet. No permits, no rewarding, and no complexity. A standout feature is sunlight backup, which allows critical appliances to stay powered during daytime outages, even without a battery, an industry first that sets us apart.

    讓我來談談陽台太陽能。我們的 IQ Balcony Solar 產品現已運往德國和比利時,並計劃在未來幾季內在歐洲、日本、印度和猶他州推出。它基於 Enphase 的 AC 架構構建,使房主能夠將一到四個面板直接插入標準壁式插座。無需許可、無需獎勵、也無需複雜。一個突出的特點是陽光備份,它允許關鍵電器在白天停電期間保持供電,即使沒有電池,這也是我們與眾不同的行業首創。

  • On the portable power front, the IQ PowerPack 1500 marks our entry into the direct consumer-energy frontier. We expect to scale significantly -- scale e-commerce sales as the category opens a new channel for customer engagement and brand grade -- and brand growth. In parallel, we plan to expand the IQ PowerPack family into new regions, including Europe, India, and Japan while broadening use cases to address a wide spectrum of mobile energy needs.

    在便攜式電源方面,IQ PowerPack 1500 標誌著我們進入直接消費能源領域。我們期望大幅擴大規模——隨著該類別為客戶參與和品牌等級開闢新的管道,擴大電子商務銷售規模——並實現品牌成長。同時,我們計劃將 IQ PowerPack 系列擴展到歐洲、印度和日本等新地區,同時擴大使用案例以滿足廣泛的行動能源需求。

  • Let's talk about EV charging. We are now shipping our next-generation IQ EV Charger 2 into 18 countries across Europe as well as Australia and New Zealand. This charger is designed to integrate seamlessly with Enphase Solar and Battery systems, while also performing as a high-quality standalone solution. We recently earned EV-ready certification in France, one of the country's most rigorous standards, demonstrating our commitment to safety and performance. Over the coming months, we plan to expand availability into more European countries as well as Brazil, India, and introducing it back in the US, supporting the global shift to electrification with a trusted proven solution.

    讓我們來談談電動車充電。我們目前正在將下一代 IQ EV Charger 2 運往歐洲 18 個國家以及澳洲和紐西蘭。該充電器旨在與 Enphase 太陽能和電池系統無縫集成,同時還可作為高品質的獨立解決方案。我們最近獲得了法國的 EV-ready 認證,這是該國最嚴格的標準之一,證明了我們對安全和性能的承諾。在接下來的幾個月裡,我們計劃將業務擴展到更多歐洲國家以及巴西、印度,並將其重新引入美國,以值得信賴的成熟解決方案支持全球向電氣化的轉變。

  • Let me now share an update on our IQ bidirectional EV charger, which is expected to launch in the middle of 2026. This 11 kilowatt solution is powered by three high-performance microinverters built on a full GaN architecture, delivering exceptional efficiency and compact design. Paired with the IQ Meter Collar in the US, it enables seamless vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid functionality with automatic black start.

    現在讓我分享一下我們的 IQ 雙向電動車充電器的最新動態,預計將於 2026 年中期推出。此 11 千瓦解決方案由三個基於全 GaN 架構的高性能微型逆變器供電,具有卓越的效率和緊湊的設計。與美國的 IQ Meter Collar 搭配使用,它可以實現無縫的車輛到家和車輛到電網功能,並具有自動黑啟動功能。

  • Together, they offer one of the lowest cost and simplest ways to provide full-home backup even without solar or stationary batteries. Homeowners can just start with an EV, our bidirectional charger, and the Meter Collar. And then later can Solar or Enphase Batteries depending on their preferences and energy goals. Built to ISO 15118-20 standard and currently undergoing testing with multiple global OEMs, we believe this platform has the potential to redefine energy resilience by turning the EV into a flexible, grid-aware energy asset for the home.

    總而言之,它們提供了一種成本最低、最簡單的方法,即使沒有太陽能或固定電池也能提供全屋備用電源。房主可以從電動車、我們的雙向充電器和電錶項圈開始。然後可以根據他們的喜好和能源目標使用太陽能或 Enphase 電池。該平台按照 ISO 15118-20 標準製造,目前正在接受全球多家 OEM 的測試,我們相信,透過將電動車轉變為靈活的、電網感知的家庭能源資產,該平台有潛力重新定義能源彈性。

  • Let's talk about Solargraf. Our all in-one platform purpose built for installers. We are rolling out major enhancements, including seamless integration with our top PPO partners, powerful custom tariff builder, advanced-dealer management tools, and a dramatically simplified AI-driven design experience. Every upgrade is designed to make Solargraf more intuitive, intelligent, and more indispensable. As it continues to evolve, Solargraf is becoming a strategic growth engine for us, empowering installers to sell faster, design smarter, and scale with confidence.

    讓我們來談談 Solargraf。我們的一體化平台專為安裝人員打造。我們正在推出重大改進,包括與我們的頂級 PPO 合作夥伴的無縫整合、強大的客製化關稅建構器、先進的經銷商管理工具以及大幅簡化的 AI 驅動的設計體驗。每次升級都旨在讓 Solargraf 更加直覺、智慧、更加不可或缺。隨著 Solargraf 的不斷發展,它正在成為我們的策略性成長引擎,使安裝人員能夠更快地銷售、更聰明地設計並充滿信心地擴展規模。

  • The signing of the tax reconciliation bill marks the turning point for the US solar industry, but adapting to change is core to Enphase's DNA. Over the past several years, we have evolved from a single-microinverter-product company into a global energy-technology leader. Today, we offer a full portfolio of microinverters, batteries, EV chargers, and intelligent home energy-management software.

    稅收和解法案的簽署標誌著美國太陽能產業的轉折點,但適應變化是 Enphase 的核心。在過去的幾年裡,我們從單一微型逆變器產品公司發展成為全球能源技術領導者。如今,我們提供全系列的微型逆變器、電池、電動車充電器和智慧家庭能源管理軟體。

  • Our systems are deployed in more than 160 countries with over 4.9 million Enphase-powered homes worldwide. We are entering new consumer markets with products like Balcony, Solar, and Portable Energy systems. And with our upcoming IQ9 Microinverters, we expect to unlock the 480-volt commercial solar market in the US, which is a major expansion of our addressable market and a key step into larger-scale energy application. We believe we are strongly positioned to lead through the next phase of industry transformation.

    我們的系統已部署在 160 多個國家,全球有超過 490 萬個家庭使用 Enphase 供電。我們正在透過陽台、太陽能和便攜式能源系統等產品進入新的消費市場。隨著我們即將推出的 IQ9 微型逆變器,我們預計將打開美國 480 伏特商業太陽能市場,這是我們目標市場的重大擴展,也是邁向更大規模能源應用的關鍵一步。我們相信,我們有能力引領產業轉型的下一階段。

  • Our product road map is accelerating with next generation microinverters and batteries focusing on lowering installation costs and simplifying installations. We are doubling down on our installer services platform to help drive soft costs and expand lease financing access across the industry.

    我們的產品路線圖正在加速下一代微型逆變器和電池的開發,重點是降低安裝成本和簡化安裝。我們正在加倍投入安裝服務平台,以幫助降低軟成本並擴大整個行業的租賃融資管道。

  • The long-term fundamentals are distributed energy remain powerful, rising demand, higher utility rates, and growing homeowner interest in resilience and energy independence. As the market shifts, we will keep doing what we do best: innovating with purpose, moving fast, and staying relentlessly focused on our customers.

    長期基本面是分散式能源依然強勁,需求不斷增長,公用事業費率更高,以及房主對彈性和能源獨立的興趣日益濃厚。隨著市場的變化,我們將繼續做我們最擅長的事情:有目的地創新,快速發展,並始終專注於我們的客戶。

  • With that I will turn the call over to Mandy for her review of our financial results. Mandy?

    說完,我將把電話轉給 Mandy,讓她審查我們的財務結果。曼迪?

  • Mandy Yang - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Mandy Yang - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Badri, and good afternoon, everyone. I will provide more details related to our second quarter of 2025 financial results as well as our business outlook for the third quarter of 2025. We have provided reconciliations of these non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our earnings release posted today, which can also be found in the IR section of our website.

    謝謝,巴德里,大家下午好。我將提供更多有關我們 2025 年第二季財務業績以及 2025 年第三季業務展望的詳細資訊。我們在今天發布的收益報告中提供了這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表,您也可以在我們網站的 IR 部分找到該對帳表。

  • Total revenue for Q2 was $363.2 million. We shipped approximately 675.4 megawatt DC microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of IQ Batteries in the quarter. Q2 revenue included $40.4 million of Safe Harbor revenue. As a reminder, we define Safe Harbor revenue as any sales made to customers who claim to install the inventory over more than a year.

    第二季總營收為 3.632 億美元。本季我們出貨了約 675.4 兆瓦直流微型逆變器和 190.9 兆瓦時的 IQ 電池。第二季收入包括 4,040 萬美元的安全港收入。提醒一下,我們將安全港收入定義為向聲稱安裝庫存超過一年的客戶進行的任何銷售。

  • Non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 48.6% compared to 48.9% in Q1. GAAP gross margin was 46.9% for Q2 compared to 47.2% in Q1. Non-GAAP gross margin without net IRA benefit for Q2 was 37.2% compared to 38.3% in Q1. Reciprocal tariffs impacted our gross margins by approximately 2% in Q2. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 also included $41.5 million of net IRA benefit.

    第二季非公認會計準則毛利率為 48.6%,第一季為 48.9%。第二季 GAAP 毛利率為 46.9%,第一季為 47.2%。第二季不計淨 IRA 收益的非 GAAP 毛利率為 37.2%,而第一季為 38.3%。互惠關稅對我們第二季的毛利率影響了約 2%。第二季的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率還包括 4,150 萬美元的淨 IRA 收益。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses were $77.8 million for Q2 compared to $79.4 million for Q1. GAAP operating expenses were $133.5 million for Q2 compared to $136.3 million for Q1. GAAP operating expenses for Q2 included $49.5 million of stock-based compensation expenses, $2.9 million of amortization for acquired intangible assets and $3.3 million of restructuring and asset impairment charges.

    第二季非公認會計準則營運費用為 7,780 萬美元,而第一季為 7,940 萬美元。第二季 GAAP 營運費用為 1.335 億美元,而第一季為 1.363 億美元。第二季的 GAAP 營運費用包括 4,950 萬美元的股票薪資費用、290 萬美元的收購無形資產攤銷費用以及 330 萬美元的重組和資產減損費用。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, income from operations for Q2 was $98.6 million compared to $94.6 million for Q1. On a GAAP basis, income from operations was $37 million for Q2 compared to $31.9 million for Q1. On a non-GAAP basis, net income for Q2 was $89.9 million compared to $89.2 million for Q1. This resulted in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.69 for Q2 compared to $0.68 for Q1. GAAP net income for Q2 was $37.1 million compared to $29.7 million for Q1. This resulted in GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.28 for Q2 compared to $0.22 for Q1.

    以非公認會計準則計算,第二季營業收入為 9,860 萬美元,而第一季為 9,460 萬美元。根據 GAAP 計算,第二季營業收入為 3,700 萬美元,而第一季為 3,190 萬美元。以非公認會計準則計算,第二季淨收入為 8,990 萬美元,而第一季淨收入為 8,920 萬美元。這導致第二季非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 0.69 美元,而第一季為 0.68 美元。第二季 GAAP 淨收入為 3,710 萬美元,而第一季為 2,970 萬美元。這導致第二季的 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 0.28 美元,而第一季為 0.22 美元。

  • We exited Q2 with a total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balance of $1.53 billion, flat when compared to Q1. As part of our $1 billion share repurchase program authorized by our Board of Directors in July 2023, we repurchased 702,948 shares of our common stock in Q2 at an average price of $42.67 per share for a total of approximately $30 million. We have a remaining $268.7 million authorized for further share repurchases.

    我們在第二季結束時的現金、現金等價物和有價證券總額為 15.3 億美元,與第一季持平。作為董事會於 2023 年 7 月批准的 10 億美元股票回購計畫的一部分,我們在第二季以每股 42.67 美元的平均價格回購了 702,948 股普通股,總計約 3,000 萬美元。我們還有剩餘的 2.687 億美元授權用於進一步股票回購。

  • In addition, we spent approximately $3 million by withholding shares to cover taxes for employees divesting in Q2 that reduced the diluted shares by 58,332 shares. We expect to continue this anti-dilution plan. In Q2, we generated $26.6 million in cash flow from operations and $18.4 million in free cash flow. Capital expenditure was $8.2 million for Q2 compared to $14.6 million for Q1.

    此外,我們還花了約 300 萬美元扣留股票,以支付第二季員工撤資的稅款,這導致稀釋後股票數量減少了 58,332 股。我們希望繼續這項反稀釋計劃。在第二季度,我們產生了 2,660 萬美元的營運現金流和 1,840 萬美元的自由現金流。第二季的資本支出為 820 萬美元,而第一季的資本支出為 1,460 萬美元。

  • Now let's discuss our outlook for the third quarter of 2025. We expect our revenue for Q3 to be within a range of $330 million to $370 million, which includes shipments of 190 to 210 megawatt hours of IQ Batteries. We expect GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 41% to 44%, including approximately 3 to 5 percentage points of reciprocal tariff impact. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be within a range of 43% to 46% with net IRA benefit, and 33% to 36% before net IRA benefit, including the reciprocal tariff impact.

    現在讓我們來討論一下對 2025 年第三季的展望。我們預計第三季的營收將在 3.3 億美元至 3.7 億美元之間,其中包括 190 至 210 兆瓦時的 IQ 電池出貨量。我們預計 GAAP 毛利率將在 41% 至 44% 之間,其中包括約 3 至 5 個百分點的互惠關稅影響。我們預計,非 GAAP 毛利率在計入淨 IRA 收益後將在 43% 至 46% 之間,在計入淨 IRA 收益前(包括互惠關稅影響)將在 33% 至 36% 之間。

  • Non-GAAP gross margin excludes stock-based compensation expense and acquisition-related amortization. We expect the net IRA benefit to be between $34 million and $38 million on estimated shipments of 1.2 million units of US microinverters in Q3. We expect our GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $130 million to $134 million, including approximately $52 million estimated for stock-based compensation expenses, acquisition-related amortization and restructuring and asset impairment charges.

    非公認會計準則毛利率不包括股票薪酬費用及收購相關攤銷。我們預計,第三季美國微型逆變器的出貨量約為 120 萬台,IRA 淨收益將在 3,400 萬美元至 3,800 萬美元之間。我們預計我們的 GAAP 營運費用將在 1.3 億美元至 1.34 億美元之間,其中包括約 5,200 萬美元的股票薪酬費用、收購相關的攤銷和重組以及資產減損費用。

  • We expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to be within a range of $78 million to $82 million. For the year 2025, we expect our GAAP tax rate of 19% to 21% and a non-GAAP tax rate of 15% to 17%, including IRA benefits.

    我們預計非公認會計準則營運費用將在 7,800 萬美元至 8,200 萬美元之間。到 2025 年,我們預計 GAAP 稅率為 19% 至 21%,非 GAAP 稅率為 15% 至 17%,包括 IRA 福利。

  • With that, I will open the line for questions.

    現在,我將開始回答大家的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    我們現在開始問答環節。(操作員指示)

  • Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good afternoon, Badri, I think you mentioned in your remarks partnering with TPO providers and introducing some creative financing structures that could help maximize the tax credit capture. Can you just elaborate on what those type of structures could look like and when you plan to launch that? And I guess is the goal here to kind of take your relationships with the long-tail installers and get them on to a TPO platform?

    謝謝。下午好,巴德里,我想您在發言中提到了與 TPO 提供者合作並引入一些有助於最大限度地提高稅收抵免的創新融資結構。您能否詳細說明一下這些類型的結構是什麼樣子的以及您計劃何時推出它們?我想,這裡的目標是建立與長尾安裝者的關係,並將他們引入 TPO 平台嗎?

  • And then maybe just a follow-up on that. What is -- just to level set, what is your market share with TPO providers today after the recent bankruptcies in the space? And I guess, how do you expect that to evolve in 2026?

    然後也許只是對此進行跟進。只是為了確定一個水平,在最近該領域破產之後,您在 TPO 提供者中的市場份額是多少?我想,您預期 2026 年會如何發展?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So I'll start with the second question first. First of all, our overall market share in the US is quite healthy, as you all know and it is available in public, public analytic reports. We have a healthy share at both -- for both cash, loan customers as well as healthy share with the TPO customers. We have not broken it out and we do have healthy share.

    是的。因此我先從第二個問題開始。首先,眾所周知,我們在美國的整體市佔率相當健康,這可以在公開的分析報告中查閱。我們在現金、貸款客戶以及 TPO 客戶方面都佔有健康的份額。我們還沒有將其分解,但我們確實擁有健康的份額。

  • We work with every one of these TPO customers. We work with every single one. And right now, we are in deep discussions with them because what we have is we know how to service long-tail installers. We have the relationships with the long-tail installers. And if we can bring lease financing access to the long tail, we can prevent a market erosion -- overall market erosion. So that's what we are aiming to do. And we are working with a lot of the TPOs.

    我們與每一位 TPO 客戶合作。我們與每一個人都合作。目前,我們正在與他們進行深入討論,因為我們知道如何為長尾安裝者提供服務。我們與長尾安裝者建立了關係。如果我們能夠將租賃融資管道引入長尾市場,我們就能防止市場侵蝕—整體市場侵蝕。這就是我們的目標。我們正在與許多 TPO 合作。

  • We aren't ready to share more details yet, but we will share those very soon, perhaps in the next earnings call. And we are looking to move on it aggressively. So let me leave it at that.

    我們尚未準備好分享更多細節,但我們很快就會分享,也許是在下次財報電話會議上。我們正在積極推進這一進程。我就不多說了。

  • So I'll add a couple of more things. I've seen many of the analyst reports. They all say the US TAM is about 4.5 gigawatts for Solar in 2025. And I think it's approximately a couple of gigawatt hours for Batteries in 2025. And what is the view for it to be in 2026. There are various numbers. Our -- my personal view is that we expect a 20% drop in TAM in 2026 due to 25D.

    因此我將補充幾點。我看過很多分析師報告。他們都說,2025 年美國太陽能的 TAM 約為 4.5 千兆瓦。我認為到 2025 年電池的發電量大約是幾千兆瓦時。那麼 2026 年的前景如何呢?有各種不同的數字。我個人的觀點是,由於 25D,我們預計 2026 年 TAM 將下降 20%。

  • So there are three things which we believe we need to do in order to mitigate the market reduction. One is what we just talked about, bringing lease financing to the long tail, how to facilitate that most effectively with our strong TPO partnerships. The second one, working on driving down installation costs. And there, we talked about batteries. We just released our fourth-generation batteries. Batteries in general, are ramping up in the US. They are getting more cost effective.

    因此,我們認為需要做三件事來緩解市場下滑的影響。一是我們剛才談到的,將租賃融資引入長尾,如何利用我們強大的 TPO 合作夥伴關係最有效地促進這一點。第二,努力降低安裝成本。在那裡,我們討論了電池。我們剛剛發布了第四代電池。總體而言,電池在美國市場正在蓬勃發展。它們的成本效益越來越高。

  • I just told you that I'm working on my fifth-generation battery scheduled to come out in exactly a year from now. And in that fifth-generation battery, we are able to improve the energy density by more than 50%. And we, therefore, can make a major improvement in cost and hence, installation costs. And also IQ9 has got a lot of innovation on it with GaN in order to reduce the overall cost. So we are looking forward to basically introducing world-class products, which have a very efficient footprint and which will bring down the end installation costs.

    我剛剛告訴你,我正在研發第五代電池,預計一年後上市。在第五代電池中,我們能夠將能量密度提高 50% 以上。因此,我們可以大幅降低成本,從而降低安裝成本。此外,IQ9 在 GaN 方面也進行了大量創新,以降低整體成本。因此,我們期待推出世界一流的產品,這些產品具有非常高效的佔地面積,並且可以降低最終的安裝成本。

  • The third one is an interesting one is lead generation. The customer acquisition cost is very high in the solar industry and of the order of anywhere between $0.70 a watt to $1 a watt. And Enphase needs to do a lot more in order to reduce that. And I think we are taking up that.

    第三個有趣的點是潛在客戶開發。太陽能產業的客戶獲取成本非常高,大約在每瓦 0.70 美元到每瓦 1 美元之間。為了減少這種情況,Enphase 需要做更多工作。我認為我們正在考慮這個問題。

  • Once again, we are launching aggressive initiatives where we will be able to generate leads and pass on to our installers. The -- also note that we have a fleet that is five million homes. Earlier in the past, installation may not have had time -- installers may not have had time to focus on the upgrade market. But now it is going to be lucrative for them to focus on that market, too. So three things are -- which we are going to do well under our control while working with our partners is bring lease financing to the long tail, make world-class products, driving down installation costs, third is help reduce lead generation costs across the industry.

    我們再次推出積極的舉措,以便能夠產生潛在客戶並將其傳遞給我們的安裝人員。也請注意,我們擁有 500 萬套房屋。在過去,安裝可能沒有時間——安裝人員可能沒有時間關注升級市場。但現在,專注於該市場對他們來說也將是有利可圖的。因此,我們將在與合作夥伴合作的同時做好三件事:將租賃融資引入長尾,製造世界一流的產品,降低安裝成本;第三是幫助降低整個行業的潛在客戶生成成本。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. Maybe kind of switching gears, you mentioned that the micro channel is slightly elevated. We know demand is going to decline in 2026 once the 25D credit expires. I guess how do you intend on managing field inventories with distributors for the balance of the year?

    知道了。這非常有幫助。也許有點轉換話題,您提到微通道稍微升高了。我們知道,一旦 25D 信貸到期,2026 年需求將會下降。我猜您打算如何與經銷商一起管理今年的剩餘現場庫存?

  • Do you plan to undership micros in either Q3 or Q4 to help reduce inventories? Or do you think inventories could just get rightsized more organically if we see maybe a pull forward of demand or some Safe Harbors in the second half?

    您是否計劃在第三季或第四季減少微型產品的出貨量以幫助減少庫存?或者,您是否認為,如果我們看到下半年需求提前或出現一些安全港,庫存可能會更有機地調整?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think you answered the question yourself. Basically, that's exactly what we expect. We expect 25D increase in demand, which will come from the channel and make the channel at reasonable levels by the end of the year.

    我想你自己已經回答這個問題了。基本上,這正是我們所期望的。我們預計需求將增加 25%,這些需求將來自管道,並使管道在年底前達到合理水平。

  • Praneeth Satish - Analyst

    Praneeth Satish - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Philip Shen, Roth Capital.

    菲利普·沈(Philip Shen),羅斯資本(Roth Capital)。

  • Philip Shen - Equity Analyst

    Philip Shen - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for taking my questions. In terms of the Q3 guide -- sorry if I missed it, but did you share how much safe harbor you expect in the Q3 revenue? And then you talked about not yet seeing the pull forward of demand yet. How do you expect that to manifest? Would it be more of a Q4 element? Or do you think there could be an upside surprise to Q3?

    嘿,謝謝你回答我的問題。關於第三季指南——如果我錯過了,很抱歉,但您是否分享了您預期的第三季收入安全港是多少?然後您談到尚未看到需求的提前拉動。您認為這將如何體現?它會不會更像是 Q4 元素?或者您認為第三季可能會出現意外驚喜?

  • And then in terms of the elevated channel, how did we get to elevated channel levels? Was there a pause earlier in the year? Or did you overship into the channel? And what are the levels? Historically, you're -- when you got rightsized recently, you're at 8 to 10 weeks. I mean are we talking about 12 weeks now or something higher? Thanks.

    那麼就高架通路而言,我們如何達到高架通路水平?今年早些時候有暫停嗎?還是您超額出貨到該通路?那麼級別是怎樣的呢?從歷史上看,當您最近獲得合適規模時,您的時間是 8 到 10 週。我的意思是我們現在談論的是 12 週還是更長的時間?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Right. So first of all, the Q3 revenue guidance does not include any Safe Harbor. As I said, we are working with several TPO partners and they are all looking at recently -- at the recent executive order, and they are waiting for further clarity. And once they have that clarity, they will take the actions. From our side, what we are doing is to ensure that we are ready in terms of capacity. Any time that they want the product, we are going to be ready in order to service them.

    正確的。首先,第三季的營收預期不包含任何安全港條款。正如我所說,我們正在與幾個 TPO 合作夥伴合作,他們都在關注最近的行政命令,並等待進一步的明確說明。一旦他們明確了這一點,他們就會採取行動。從我們的角度來看,我們正在做的是確保我們在能力方面做好準備。無論何時他們需要產品,我們都會隨時準備為他們提供服務。

  • On your 25D question, I think we will see the 25D demand possibly in early Q4 is what we will start seeing. Right now, we aren't seeing it, but we still have August and September left. So that's what I expect that we'll start seeing it soon. I'm sure that installers -- some installers will have to make workforce changes. They may have to add temporary teams in order to feed the rush, and that -- those all take a little bit of time. And so I'm sure it's coming in Q4.

    關於您的 25D 問題,我認為我們將在第四季初開始看到 25D 需求。目前,我們還沒有看到它,但我們還剩下八月和九月。因此我期望我們很快就會看到它。我確信安裝人員——一些安裝人員將不得不進行勞動力變動。他們可能需要增加臨時團隊來應對高峰,而這些都需要一點時間。所以我確信它會在第四季推出。

  • The question on channel, we are completely transparent to you. It is -- we are actually in very good shape in channel management. We -- our experience in the last two years on the quantity of undershipment, et cetera, that we had, we have recognized that's an anomaly and we will never get to that stage. So whenever I say slightly above, it should mean slightly above 8% to 10%. That's what it means.

    關於頻道的問題,我們對您完全透明。是的-我們的通路管理其實狀況非常好。根據我們過去兩年在裝運不足數量等方面的經驗,我們認識到這是一種異常現象,我們永遠不會陷入那種階段。因此,每當我說略高於時,它的意思應該是略高於 8% 到 10%。這就是它的意思。

  • Philip Shen - Equity Analyst

    Philip Shen - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, Badri. My follow-up question is on something you said earlier, you said your assumption for '26 is a TAM that's 20% lower. Can you walk us through the assumptions of how you get to the 20%, the baseline for loan versus TPO versus cash, et cetera? And then separately, can you -- if you can, I know you won't guide to Q4 and Q1, but how are you thinking about Q4 and Q1 from a cadence standpoint if you are able to share? Thank you.

    謝謝,巴德里。我的後續問題是關於您之前所說的內容,您說您對 26 年的假設是 TAM 會低 20%。您能否向我們解釋如何達到 20% 的假設、貸款、TPO 和現金的基準等等?然後單獨地,如果可以的話,我知道您不會指導 Q4 和 Q1,但是如果您能夠分享的話,您是如何從節奏的角度考慮 Q4 和 Q1 的?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. So we expect approximately a 20% reduction in TAM. The way I'm thinking about it, just to tell you simple straightforward is, let us say the -- I mean, the 4.5 has got 2 gigawatts of lease and 2.5 gigawatts of cash and loan. I expect basically the leasing market to be increasing a little bit and the cash and loan market to decrease by a lot. So the end picture will -- in our opinion, the end picture may look like 2.5 gigawatts lease and 1 gigawatt cash and loan in 2026.

    是的。因此我們預計 TAM 將減少約 20%。我的想法是,簡單直接地告訴你,比如說——我的意思是,4.5 有 2 千兆瓦的租賃和 2.5 千兆瓦的現金和貸款。我預計租賃市場將會略有成長,而現金和貸款市場將會大幅下降。因此,我們認為,最終的情況可能是 2026 年 2.5 千兆瓦租賃和 1 千兆瓦現金和貸款。

  • Of course, everybody's estimate is different. But our rationale is the following. There are -- the key markets in the US are basically -- you take a look at California. If you take a look at California, the utility prices are high in California. Payback today is six to eight years in 2025. And with ITC not being there for a cash loan purchase -- or cash purchase, I should say, the payback is going to stretch by two years, six to eight will become something like an 8 to 10, still very attractive economics with a 25-year product.

    當然,每個人的估計都不同。但我們的理由如下。美國的主要市場基本上是加州。如果你看看加州,你會發現那裡的公用事業價格很高。目前的回報時間為 2025 年,即六至八年。而且由於 ITC 不適用於現金貸款購買 - 或者說現金購買,我應該說,回報期將延長兩年,六到八年將變成八到十年,對於 25 年的產品來說,仍然非常具有經濟吸引力。

  • We see the same economics in a similar economics even in the East Coast where the utility rates are high. And in the East Coast, VPPs are popular. Puerto Rico, for example, most of the business gets transacted on lease. So we see that market to be remaining intact.

    即使在公用事業費率較高的東海岸,我們也看到了類似的經濟狀況。在東海岸,VPP 很受歡迎。例如,波多黎各的大部分業務都是透過租賃進行交易的。因此我們認為該市場將保持完好。

  • So the markets that probably will be hit hard is the Midwest, Central and even Southeast, where the utility rates are, in general, on the lower side. But that's the big picture, 4.5 gigawatts in 2025, we think it will go down to 3.5 gigawatts in 2026. The lease market will slightly expand 2 to 2.5. The cash and loan will go from 2.5 to 1. That's the math, and that's my opinion. It's not a fact.

    因此,可能受到嚴重打擊的市場是中西部、中部甚至東南部,這些地區的公用事業費率總體較低。但整體情況是這樣的,2025 年為 4.5 千兆瓦,我們認為到 2026 年將降至 3.5 千兆瓦。租賃市場將略微擴大2至2.5倍。現金和貸款將從2.5倍增至1倍。這就是數學,也是我的觀點。這不是事實。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Brian Lee, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Brian Lee。

  • Brian Lee - Analyst

    Brian Lee - Analyst

  • Hey guys, good afternoon, thanks for taking the questions. I guess, Badri, just following up on your strategic initiatives in a declining TAM environment. I appreciate you guys have an action plan already sort of in place. I mean when you talk about working with the long tail on TPO and financing and then the lead gen, can you maybe give us a sense how quickly you can implement those strategies? And then how much incremental cost you would have to incur? I would imagine maybe the OpEx has some incremental cost or some investment required to be able to start driving those two initiatives.

    大家好,下午好,感謝你們回答問題。我想,巴德里,你只是在 TAM 不斷下降的環境中跟進你的戰略舉措。我很感激你們已經制定了行動計畫。我的意思是,當您談到在 TPO 和融資以及領先創收方面的長尾工作時,您能否讓我們了解一下您能夠多快實施這些策略?那麼您需要承擔多少增量成本?我想也許 OpEx 需要一些增量成本或一些投資才能開始推動這兩項計劃。

  • And then I guess my follow-up would just be in this environment where you just outlined a potential 20% reduction in volume, you're looking at ways to maintain as much of that volume as possible. Would pricing actions to mitigate some of that TAM loss and capture more volume be part of the strategy? Maybe walk us through what you're thinking around pricing in that type of environment as well. Thank you.

    然後我想我的後續行動就是在這種環境下,您剛剛概述了潛在的 20% 的交易量減少,您正在尋找盡可能維持該交易量的方法。採取定價行動來減輕部分 TAM 損失並獲得更多銷售是否會成為該策略的一部分?也許您也可以向我們介紹一下您在那種環境下對於定價的想法。謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. In terms of operating expenses, we don't anticipate any major change because what we are really doing is will be ultimately lucrative for the TPOs. It is -- we are essentially making sure that, that demand is not lost. The long tail has got access. So the TPOs should have more business. So the operating costs for us in order to facilitate this is not meaningfully higher.

    是的。在營運費用方面,我們預計不會有任何重大變化,因為我們真正做的事情最終將為 TPO 帶來利潤。是的——我們本質上是在確保需求不會失去。長尾已經獲得存取權限。因此 TPO 應該有更多的業務。因此,我們為了實現這一目標而付出的營運成本並沒有顯著增加。

  • In terms of pricing actions, what I've told you is the following. Our -- the way we are going on batteries, for example, we are going to have -- we already reduced the installation cost, for example, with the fourth-generation product. Now, we are taking that and cutting it down by another big factor, basically increasing the energy density. We are going to prismatic cells. And so once we do that, what happens is our margins fundamentally improve.

    在定價行動方面,我告訴大家的是以下內容。例如,我們在電池方面的發展方式——我們已經降低了安裝成本,例如,透過第四代產品。現在,我們將其降低一個重要因素,從根本上提高能量密度。我們將採用方形電池。一旦我們這樣做了,我們的利潤率就會從根本上提高。

  • Similarly, on IQ9, when we go to the bidirectional GaN switch, what happens is once we start running GaN at an increased frequency, then what happens is we are able to optimize the rest of the bill of material. Ultimately, we are able to produce 10% power, maybe even 20% power at a similar cost structure as before. So innovation is the answer. Innovation is the answer.

    類似地,在 IQ9 上,當我們轉到雙向 GaN 開關時,一旦我們開始以更高的頻率運行 GaN,我們就能優化其餘的物料清單。最終,我們能夠以與以前類似的成本結構生產 10% 甚至 20% 的電力。所以答案就是創新。答案就是創新。

  • So we are innovating on batteries. We are innovating on IQ9. As I said, we are also going to get -- for the first time, we are going to introduce a three-phase 480-volt product. So that's -- so coming back to pricing. So once we have fundamentally altered the cost structure, then the pricing action is simple. It is -- it allows us room to do the correct pricing for the consumer, depending on the value that we add.

    所以我們正在對電池進行創新。我們正在對IQ9進行創新。正如我所說,我們還將首次推出三相 480 伏特產品。所以這又回到定價問題。因此,一旦我們從根本上改變了成本結構,那麼定價行動就很簡單了。是的——它讓我們有空間根據我們增加的價值為消費者制定正確的定價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

    朱利安·杜穆林·史密斯(Julien Dumoulin-Smith),傑富瑞集團(Jefferies

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Dishant] here for Julien. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe the first one, could you discuss how the dynamics will work for the 4Q Safe Harboring? As we understand it, the system needs to be installed by year-end to get the credit, right? So will we see loan originations in 4Q given that uncertainty on timing of install?

    我是 [Dishant],為 Julien 服務。感謝您回答我的問題。也許是第一個問題,您能否討論一下第四季安全港政策的動態如何發揮作用?據我們了解,該系統需要在年底前安裝完畢才能獲得信貸,對嗎?那麼,考慮到安裝時間的不確定性,我們會在第四季看到貸款發放嗎?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. I think Safe Harbor, basically, the rules are that the TPO partners -- and I'm speaking for them, the TPO partners have approximately a year until June 30 in order to finalize their Safe Harbor inventory and strategy. So what I guess you're talking about is the 25B.

    不。我認為安全港的基本規則是,TPO 合作夥伴 - 我代表他們發言,TPO 合作夥伴有大約一年的時間,直到 6 月 30 日,以完成他們的安全港庫存和策略。所以我猜您談論的是 25B。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • 25B, yes. Correct.

    25B,是的。正確的。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • You're talking about 25B is where expenditure means it is both the customer has to pay -- the consumer has to pay for it as well as the system should be installed by the year-end.

    您所說的 250 億支出意味著客戶必須支付——消費者必須支付,而且系統應該在年底前安裝。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Yes. So in that instance, do you think we will see -- because I know that you haven't seen installed yet in -- or you haven't seen that demand pull in yet in 3Q. So unless you expect to see that in 4Q, do you think that will actually happen because there might be some uncertainty on loan originations, right?

    是的。那麼在那種情況下,您認為我們會看到——因為我知道您還沒有看到安裝——或者您還沒有看到第三季度的需求拉動。因此,除非您預計在第四季度看到這種情況,否則您認為這種情況實際上會發生嗎,因為貸款發放可能會存在一些不確定性,對嗎?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, our opinion is it will happen. Our installers are experts, they know what to do. And I think right now, they need to make sure they expand their crews so that they start to cater to the demand rush. But they have a lot of experience. They can get solar installations done quickly. So I do expect it to happen.

    嗯,我們認為它會發生。我們的安裝人員都是專家,他們知道該做什麼。我認為現在他們需要確保擴大他們的團隊,以便開始滿足激增的需求。但他們經驗豐富。他們可以快速完成太陽能安裝。所以我確實希望它會發生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.

    奧本海默的科林·拉什。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • Thanks, guys. Can you talk about your ability to upsell existing homeowners on either chargers or batteries and kind of what those unit economics look like as a combined sale and your access to those customers through your partners? Or can you go direct to those folks?

    謝謝大家。您能否談談您向現有房主追加銷售充電器或電池的能力,以及這些組合銷售的單位經濟效益如何,以及您如何透過合作夥伴接觸這些客戶?或者你可以直接去找那些人嗎?

  • Raghuveer Belur - Vice President - Products and Strategic Initiatives

    Raghuveer Belur - Vice President - Products and Strategic Initiatives

  • Colin, this is Raghu. Yes, as Badri mentioned, that is a very important segment of the market that we are looking at. Of course, the customer acquisition cost is significantly lower because it's already an existing customer.

    科林,這是拉古。是的,正如巴德里所提到的,這是我們正在關注的一個非常重要的市場部分。當然,由於已經是現有客戶,因此客戶獲取成本會明顯較低。

  • But I think from a product point of view, there is a fundamental advantage. We are AC-coupled. What that means is that we don't have to touch the existing solar system. You can come in and add a battery, you can come in and add an EV charger. And if you need to, which is very likely going to be the case, you may need to expand your solar system as well, which is also very simple with an AC-coupled solution.

    但我認為從產品角度來看,它有一個根本的優勢。我們是交流耦合的。這意味著我們不必觸及現有的太陽系。您可以進來添加電池,也可以進來添加電動車充電器。如果需要的話(這很有可能),您可能還需要擴展您的太陽能係統,而使用交流耦合解決方案也非常簡單。

  • So intrinsically, it has significant advantages both for customer acquisition as well as from a product point of view. There's no rip and replace. You don't have to pull out any inverters, et cetera. You just leave them alone and you can come in and add the solution. And just by -- simply by adding the battery, if there's an existing -- if there's a VPP program that you want to participate in, the battery can get enrolled in that VPP program as well.

    因此從本質上來說,它對於客戶獲取和產品角度都具有顯著的優勢。無需拆除和更換。您不必拔出任何逆變器等等。您只需將它們放在一邊,然後您可以進來添加解決方案。只需 — — 簡單地添加電池,如果有一個現有的 — — 如果有您想要參與的 VPP 計劃,那麼電池也可以加入該 VPP 計劃。

  • So we see a lot of advantages that in that market for us is very large. I mean we have an installed base worldwide of about 4.9 million homes. And the majority of them are here in the US. So it is a very important market segment that we are going after.

    因此,我們看到了很多優勢,這個市場對我們來說非常大。我的意思是,我們在全球擁有大約 490 萬個家庭安裝基地。其中大多數都在美國。所以這是我們所追求的一個非常重要的市場領域。

  • Colin Rusch - Analyst

    Colin Rusch - Analyst

  • And then my follow-up is on the non-EU, non-US markets. Obviously, you've had some success in Latin America, Australia, and other places. Can you talk a little bit about what growth looks like outside of those two main markets and how we should think about that as a contributor to the balance of this year and into next year?

    接下來我要關注的是歐盟以外、美國以外的市場。顯然,你們在拉丁美洲、澳洲和其他地方取得了一些成功。您能否簡單談談這兩個主要市場之外的成長情況,以及我們應該如何看待它對今年和明年的平衡的影響?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. In terms of Australia, for example, Australia was flat in growth -- I mean, flat to down in growth in the last year or so and even for the first six months of this year. But what happened is the new government. The new government came and introduced a battery rebate. And because it is a very lucrative battery rebate, the battery attach rate, everybody believes the battery attach rate is going to go up from like 30% to like 80%, 90%. So that's a huge opportunity for us.

    是的。以澳洲為例,澳洲的經濟成長持平——我的意思是,去年左右甚至今年前六個月的經濟成長都持平或下降。但事實是,這是新政府。新政府上台後推出了電池退稅政策。由於電池回扣和電池配售率非常豐厚,所以每個人都相信電池配售率將從 30% 上升到 80% 甚至 90%。這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。

  • We are already seeing that in installations happening. And we are introducing a few products for them. For example, Australia needs three-phase backup, and we are going to be introducing our Flex Phase Battery imminently any day now in Australia. In addition, we are also introducing our high-powered microinverters to capitalize on commercial opportunities. And in fact, Australia is getting an entire facelift of products. So all of them will be available in Australia in the next couple of months. So we expect Australia to resume growth starting from Q3.

    我們已經在安裝過程中看到了這一點。我們正在為他們推出一些產品。例如,澳洲需要三相備用電源,我們即將在澳洲推出我們的 Flex Phase 電池。此外,我們還推出了高功率微型逆變器,以利用商業機會。事實上,澳洲的產品正在進行徹底的改造。因此,所有這些產品都將在未來幾個月內在澳洲上市。因此我們預計澳洲將從第三季開始恢復成長。

  • India. India, I haven't talked about it too much. But in India, what we are doing is now we have an IQ8, full IQ8 P system, which is very cost effective for the high-panel voltages that are available. In addition, we have the battery. And India, you lose power, for example, 5 times a day in India. So resilience is top of mind for that.

    印度。印度,我還沒有談論太多。但在印度,我們現在正在做的是擁有一個 IQ8,完整的 IQ8 P 系統,這對於可用的高面板電壓來說非常具有成本效益。此外,我們還有電池。而在印度,每天停電五次。因此,韌性是最重要的。

  • Having said that, these batteries are -- what we cater to is the premium client. For example, premium villas and those will have both IQ Microinverters plus IQ Battery. It's a beautiful system. It's compatible to three-phase and give you complete energy independence. So we are seeing India growth steady. It's not a hockey stick, but every quarter, it's higher than the previous quarter.

    話雖如此,這些電池——我們迎合的是高端客戶。例如,高級別墅將同時配備 IQ 微型逆變器和 IQ 電池。這是一個美妙的系統。它與三相兼容並為您提供完全的能源獨立。因此,我們看到印度經濟穩定成長。這不是曲棍球棒,但每個季度都比上一季高。

  • The next one I'll talk about is Japan. We introduced a product for Japan very recently in the middle of Q2, just a few months ago. In fact, last week, there was a round table. I met with all the Japan installers. As you know, Japan takes a little bit of time to ramp up. But once it is there, it's a big opportunity for us. So Japan is something we are very excited about. We expect to incrementally go there. We are already going to introduce new products there. The Balcony Solar product with the small systems gateway is going to be ideal for Japan. We will be introducing batteries into Japan next year.

    接下來我要講的是日本。就在幾個月前,我們在第二季中期為日本推出了一款產品。事實上,上週已經有一個圓桌會議。我會見了所有日本安裝人員。正如你所知,日本需要一點時間來崛起。但一旦實現,對我們來說就是一個巨大的機會。因此我們對日本感到非常興奮。我們期望逐步實現這一目標。我們已經準備在那裡推出新產品。帶有小型系統網關的陽台太陽能產品將成為日本的理想選擇。明年我們將向日本推出電池。

  • So we got a nice road map for Japan. Right now, they have microinverters and we are figuring out how to ramp those along with our installers. That's what we're doing.

    因此我們得到了一張很好的日本路線圖。目前,他們擁有微型逆變器,我們正在與安裝人員一起研究如何提升它們的性能。這就是我們正在做的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Maheep Mandloi, Mizuho.

    Maheep Mandloi,瑞穗。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

    Maheep Mandloi - Equity Analyst

  • First one, just on the tariff impact. Could you quantify the tariff impact on the Q3 earnings guidance? And kind of follow-up on that on the Section 232 polysilicon investigation, it looks like there could be tariffs on silicon carbide, which I think is like 5% of the cost. Any thoughts on what tariffs could be expected on silicon carbide? And is IQ9 the way to kind of offset that or something else you have on that as well? Thanks.

    第一個問題是關於關稅的影響。您能量化關稅對第三季獲利預期的影響嗎?關於第 232 條多晶矽調查的後續情況,看起來可能會對碳化矽徵收關稅,我認為佔成本的 5%。對於碳化矽可能徵收的關稅,您有何看法?IQ9 是否可以作為一種抵消方式,或者您還有其他方法嗎?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Just to answer that question first, we don't use silicon carbide. So that is not -- that does not affect us.

    先回答這個問題,我們不使用碳化矽。所以這不會影響我們。

  • Now -- the other question you asked is the tariff. So let me give you a full download on that. We had the 145% China tariffs in the last earnings call. So at that time, we projected an impact of 6% to 8% in the gross margin. Subsequently, in May, the 145% dropped to 30%. However, now effective August 1, there are reciprocal tariffs with a lot of countries. For example, Malaysia is 25%. Vietnam is 20% now -- I mean, basically, there is no safe haven to call it.

    現在—您問的另一個問題是關稅。因此,讓我為您提供完整的下載。我們在上次財報電話會議上討論了 145% 的中國關稅。因此當時我們預期毛利率將受到 6% 至 8% 的影響。隨後,5月份,這一比例從145%降至30%。然而,從8月1日起,中國與許多國家都實施了互惠關稅。例如馬來西亞是25%。越南現在佔20%——我的意思是,基本上,沒有一個可以稱之為安全的避風港。

  • So wherever we are, we got some kind of a tariff. And right now, I mean, when we said 3% to 5%, let me take the midpoint, 4% is our gross margin impact due to tariff. If I take that as a given, that 4%, if you break down, 1% is from Microinverters. 3% is from Batteries. So that 1% Microinverters tells you that we have been working on this problem for a long time on Microinverters, a couple of years ago. So we already diversified our supply chain in Microinverters, and we can adjust yet there is still going to be a small component of the tariffs, but that impact is only 1%.

    所以無論我們在哪裡,我們都會受到某種關稅。現在,我的意思是,當我們說 3% 到 5% 時,讓我取中間值,4% 是關稅對我們毛利率的影響。如果我將其視為一個既定事實,那麼細分下來,那 4% 就是 1% 來自微型逆變器,3% 來自電池。因此,1% 微型逆變器告訴您,幾年前我們就已經長期致力於解決這個問題。因此,我們已經實現了微型逆變器供應鏈的多樣化,我們可以進行調整,但仍會有一小部分關稅,但影響只有 1%。

  • On the Battery side, we obviously have the impact on the cells. And so the only way we can avoid that is by making the cells, for example, in the US, but the labor cost in the US being high, the cost is a wash between the two. So how do we get back? How do we get that 4%? How do we make that a very small number that doesn't matter.

    在電池方面,我們顯然對電池產生了影響。因此,我們避免這種情況的唯一方法是在美國製造電池,但美國的勞動力成本很高,兩者之間的成本相差甚遠。那我們要怎麼回去呢?我們如何獲得那 4%?我們怎麼才能讓這個數字變得很小且無關緊要呢?

  • So the way we will do that is with our fifth-generation battery, which is fundamentally going to alter our gross margin structure. Essentially, our gross margins will be a step change better than the third- or fourth-generation battery. So the way you -- the way we should think about it as the tariffs right now is 4%. It might get a little smaller as you hit Q1 and Q2, four might become three-ish and then would go away once we launch the fifth-generation battery.

    因此,我們將採用第五代電池來實現這一目標,這將從根本上改變我們的毛利率結構。從本質上講,我們的毛利率將比第三代或第四代電池有顯著提高。所以,我們應該這麼想,因為目前的關稅是 4%。當你進入 Q1 和 Q2 時,它可能會變得有點小,四個可能會變成三個左右,然後一旦我們推出第五代電池,它就會消失。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Stine, Craig-Hallum.

    艾瑞克·史坦、克雷格·哈勒姆。

  • Eric Stine - Analyst

    Eric Stine - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for sneaking me in here at the end. Just curious, you mentioned that some of the TPO is waiting on guidance and set to figure out their Safe Harbor plans. I mean any thoughts on when the treasury might issue that guidance? I mean I've seen a number of potential dates, and it seems that no one really knows, but I would love your opinion of when that might be.

    嘿,謝謝你最後讓我偷偷來到這裡。只是好奇,您提到一些 TPO 正在等待指導並準備好制定他們的安全港計劃。我的意思是,您對財政部何時發布該指導有何看法?我的意思是我已經看到了許多潛在的日期,但似乎沒有人真正知道,但我很想聽聽你對特定日期的看法。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are in the same boat as you. We do not know when the treasury is going to release their guidance. And that -- our TPO partners are a lot more experts at this. They are looking at it every day and their plans, unfortunately, are changing, too. So right now, it is wait and see to look for the nuances of the guidance from treasury and then execute on the Safe Harbor.

    我們和你處境相同。我們不知道財政部何時會發布指導意見。而我們的 TPO 合作夥伴在這方面是更專業的。他們每天都在關注它,不幸的是,他們的計劃也在改變。因此,現在需要等待並觀察財政部指導的細微差別,然後執行安全港。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dylan Nassano, Wolfe Research.

    迪倫·納薩諾,沃爾夫研究中心。

  • Dylan Nassano - Analyst

    Dylan Nassano - Analyst

  • Hey, good afternoon everyone, I just wanted to follow up and see if there's any additional kind of demographic information you could share about the TPO players that you're currently in discussions with. Are these like large existing players? Where do they sit kind of geographically?

    嘿,大家下午好,我只是想跟進一下,看看您是否可以分享有關您目前正在討論的 TPO 球員的任何其他人口統計信息。這些像現有的大型參與者嗎?他們的地理位置是怎麼樣的?

  • And then as a follow-up, have you identified any potential obstacles when it comes to helping the long-tail shift to the leases? So just thinking about are there any customers saying they'd rather try to sell cash-only systems without the credits rather than maybe add the complexity of offering leases? Thank you.

    然後作為後續問題,您是否發現在幫助長尾轉向租賃方面存在任何潛在障礙?所以想想是否有客戶說他們寧願嘗試銷售不帶信用的現金系統,而不是增加提供租賃的複雜性?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We work with every TPO and we are having conversations with almost 80% of them right now on Safe Harbor.

    是的。我們與每位 TPO 合作,目前我們正在與其中近 80% 的人就安全港進行對話。

  • Your second question? Can you repeat your second question?

    你的第二個問題?你能重複一下你的第二個問題嗎?

  • Dylan Nassano - Analyst

    Dylan Nassano - Analyst

  • Yes. Sorry, yes. Just in terms of what your customers are saying, are there any that are kind of indicating they'd rather just try to sell cash systems without credits?

    是的。抱歉,是的。就您的客戶所說的而言,是否有人表示他們寧願嘗試銷售不帶信用的現金系統?

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Of course, of course, there are a lot of them who think that, for example, in California, if -- especially -- yes, let me take actually San Diego, right? San Diego has got a six-year payback today with solar plus batteries, and that might go to eight-year payback. So some of our installers, I mean, we are having -- just to tell you this, we are having installer roundtables every week. and every week is from a different region to exactly ask the same question. How are you managing this transition?

    當然,當然,很多人認為,例如在加州,如果——尤其是——是的,讓我以聖地牙哥為例,對嗎?目前,聖地牙哥利用太陽能和電池的回報期為六年,預計為八年。因此,我的意思是,我們的一些安裝人員——只是告訴您這一點,我們每週都會舉行安裝人員圓桌會議。每週都有來自不同地區的人員提出完全相同的問題。您如何面對這項轉變?

  • Some of them are absolutely confident of selling cash and loans still. Some of them are pivoting towards lease and PPA. So the answer is mixed.

    他們中的一些人仍然對出售現金和貸款充滿信心。其中一些正在轉向租賃和 PPA。所以答案是混合的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Strouse, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的馬克‧斯特勞斯。

  • Mark Strouse - Analyst

    Mark Strouse - Analyst

  • Great. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking questions. At this point, I'll just stick with one. A clarifying question on an earlier topic on the -- helping your tail customers get financing, I understand you're going to give us more details sometime soon, but is using your own balance sheet part of that potential scenarios that you're looking at? Or is it really just kind of data and partnerships and that kind of thing? I'm just curious about if you're looking to lever your balance sheet at all.

    偉大的。午安.感謝您的提問。在這一點上,我只會堅持一個。關於先前提到的幫助您的尾部客戶獲得融資的一個澄清問題,我知道您很快就會向我們提供更多細節,但是使用您自己的資產負債表是否是您正在考慮的潛在方案的一部分?或者它實際上只是某種數據、合作關係之類的東西?我只是好奇您是否希望利用您的資產負債表。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes. We are not looking at doing anything with the balance sheet. But if that changes, we'll let you know. However, what's important is we have a history of all of these installers. We know exactly how much volume they did. We know exactly the customer service, NPS, Net Promoter Score. We know everything about the installers. We know what drives them. We work very closely with them.

    是的。我們不打算對資產負債表採取任何行動。但如果情況有變,我們會通知您。然而,重要的是我們擁有所有這些安裝程序的歷史記錄。我們確切地知道他們的產量是多少。我們清楚了解客戶服務、NPS、淨推薦值。我們對安裝人員瞭如指掌。我們知道他們的動力是什麼。我們與他們密切合作。

  • So when it comes to vetting things, we are in an ideal position to do so. And of course, we -- since we design the products, we also can do the service, for example, the service and maintenance is easy. Most of the problems can be solved remotely, 90% of the problem. So we have our data analytics team, which can solve those problems. Let me leave it at that.

    因此,當需要審查事物時,我們處於理想的位置。當然,由於我們設計產品,我們也可以提供服務,例如,服務和維護很容易。大多數問題都可以透過遠端解決,90% 的問題都可以。因此,我們有數據分析團隊可以解決這些問題。我就不多說了。

  • Mark Strouse - Analyst

    Mark Strouse - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you, Badri.

    好的,謝謝你,巴德里。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的戴維‧阿卡羅。

  • David Arcaro - Analyst

    David Arcaro - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks so much for taking my question here. I was just wondering if you might be able to elaborate as you look into 2026, you talked about a bunch of product innovation efforts to lower cost. I was wondering if there are any other kind of internal cost reduction efforts, potentially efforts to lower overhead, OpEx, for example, anything you're exploring there? Thanks.

    嘿,非常感謝您在這裡回答我的問題。我只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明一下 2026 年的情況,您談到了一系列旨在降低成本的產品創新努力。我想知道是否有其他類型的內部成本削減措施,例如降低管理費用、營運支出等措施,您正在探索什麼?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Absolutely. I mean, look, we -- the market has had a demand problem over the last couple of years. And over the last couple of years, where our demand has dropped, we have continuously adjusted our expenses without compromising on R&D or customer service. And we will always be doing that. For us, it is a process, not an event.

    絕對地。我的意思是,看,我們——市場在過去幾年一直存在需求問題。在過去的幾年裡,隨著需求下降,我們不斷調整開支,同時不影響研發或客戶服務。我們將一直這樣做。對我們來說,這是一個過程,而不是一個事件。

  • And we think about expenses as -- don't think about expenses as only labor. We have to think about expenses as labor plus nonlabor. For example, we asked the question where do we need this software tool? Can we eliminate the software tool and do something else, which is more intelligent. We ask those questions all the time. So in light of any reduced demand, which we are trying to mitigate, but let us say we are not able to mitigate the demand drop, we will continuously adjust our expenses.

    我們認為費用-不要認為費用只是勞動力。我們必須將費用視為勞動力加上非勞動力。例如,我們問這個問題我們在哪裡需要這個軟體工具?我們能否消除軟體工具並做一些其他更聰明的事情。我們一直在問這些問題。因此,鑑於需求減少,我們正在努力緩解這種減少,但假設我們無法緩解需求下降,我們將不斷調整我們的開支。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Nicole Gassi, Bank of America. Nicole your line may be muted.

    妮可·加西,美國銀行。妮可,你的線可能被靜音了。

  • Chris Dendrinos, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Chris Dendrinos。

  • Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

    Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you for taking the question. I wanted to go back to some of the comments on the strategy and there's been a big focus here on marketing to the long tail and you've mentioned getting lease financing to them, improving lead generation. But I guess there's an argument that with the adoption of TPO, maybe there is additional consolidation in the industry. So maybe focusing on the other end, the maybe the fat part of the tail here.

    是的,謝謝你回答這個問題。我想回顧一下有關該策略的一些評論,這裡的重點是針對長尾的營銷,您提到了為他們提供租賃融資,以提高潛在客戶的產生。但我認為有一種觀點認為,隨著 TPO 的採用,該行業可能會進一步整合。所以也許應該把重點放在另一端,也許是尾巴的粗部分。

  • Is there any changes or anything you're doing in strategy to maybe expand your share with some of the bigger TPO providers? And how are you, I guess, maybe looking at those relationships? And is there anything you can do to improve those relationships? Thanks.

    你們在策略上是否有任何改變或舉措,以便擴大與一些較大的 TPO 供應商的份額?我想,您是如何看待這些關係的?您可以做些什麼來改善這些關係?謝謝。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Absolutely. I mean there is a myth that we don't work with the TPOs. That's totally wrong. We work with every TPO. We look for opportunities to make them successful. And what does that mean? It is basically total installation cost. It's total installation time. O&M, meaning taking care of servicing. So we are -- we work with every one of those TPOs on these issues.

    絕對地。我的意思是,有一種誤解認為我們不與 TPO 合作。這完全是錯誤的。我們與每一位 TPO 合作。我們尋找機會使他們成功。那這意味著什麼?這基本上是總安裝成本。這是總安裝時間。O&M,即負責服務。因此,我們與每一個 TPO 就這些問題展開合作。

  • For example, the fourth-generation battery and with the Meter Collar, our cost for backup is similar, meaning slightly -- only slightly higher than the cost for no backup or grid tied option. So what I'm trying to tell you is that the products that we do, we collaborate closely with the TPOs. We collaborate closely with them on service opportunities. And since we work with every one of them, we have deep partnerships there and we'll be working on it even more aggressively in order to gain more market share.

    例如,第四代電池和電錶環的備用成本是相似的,也就是說,僅略高於無備用或併網選項的成本。所以我想告訴你們的是,我們生產的產品是與 TPO 密切合作的。我們與他們密切合作,提供服務機會。由於我們與每一家公司都有合作,因此我們在那裡建立了深厚的合作夥伴關係,我們將更加積極地努力以獲得更多的市場份額。

  • Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

    Christopher Dendrinos - Equity Analyst

  • That's it for me. Thanks.

    對我來說就是這樣。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Seeing no further questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Badri Kothandaraman for any closing remarks.

    (操作員指示)如果沒有其他問題,我們的問答環節就此結束。我想將會議交還給 Badri Kothandaraman 並請他作最後發言。

  • Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Badrinarayanan Kothandaraman - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks for joining us today and for your continued support of Enphase. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Thank you.

    感謝您今天加入我們並繼續支持 Enphase。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。