艾默生電氣 (EMR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Emerson Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings and Climate Technologies Announcement Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加艾默生 2022 年第四季度和全年收益和氣候技術公告電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Colleen Mettler. Please go ahead.

請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想把會議交給科琳·梅特勒。請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q4 and full year 2022 earnings and an exciting milestone in our portfolio transformation. Today, I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; and Chief Financial Officer, Frank Dellaquila for the presentation. Also here with us is our Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們討論我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益以及我們投資組合轉型的一個激動人心的里程碑。今天，總裁兼首席執行官 Lal Karsanbhai 加入了我的行列；和首席財務官弗蘭克·德拉奎拉 (Frank Dellaquila) 的演講。與我們同在的還有我們的首席運營官 Ram Krishnan。

I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on the Investor page of our website. This presentation and responses to questions may include forward-looking statements, including the company's outlook for the remainder of the year. Information on factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from those disclosed today, is available on Emerson's most recent annual report on Form 10-K as filed with the SEC and subsequent SEC filings. (Operator Instructions) With that, I will now turn the call over to Emerson's President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai.

我鼓勵每個人都跟隨幻燈片演示，該幻燈片可在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到。本演示文稿和對問題的回答可能包括前瞻性陳述，包括公司對今年剩餘時間的展望。有關可能導致實際結果與今天披露的結果存在重大差異的因素的信息，請參閱艾默生向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表格年度報告以及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。 （操作員說明）現在，我將把電話轉給艾默生的總裁兼首席執行官 Lal Karsanbhai。

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Please turn to Slide 4. Allow me to begin by saying that I'm very proud of Emerson's global team for the results delivered in 2022. Thank you. We had a strong finish to the results in 2022, with underlying sales growth of 9%, operational leverage of 36%, an adjusted EPS of $5.25, representing a 16% increase over prior year.

謝謝你，科琳。早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。請轉到幻燈片 4。首先請允許我說，我為艾默生的全球團隊在 2022 年取得的成果感到非常自豪。謝謝。我們在 2022 年取得了強勁的業績，基本銷售額增長 9%，運營槓桿率為 36%，調整後每股收益為 5.25 美元，比上年增長 16%。

As we will discuss during today's call, most importantly, we have a strong outlook for 2023, supported by end market growth and excellent operational execution. Shortly after becoming CEO in February of 2021, we embarked on an ambitious journey to accelerate value creation for Emerson shareholders. This required a bold transformational agenda, inclusive of culture, portfolio and execution. Alongside our Board of Directors, we underwent a comprehensive assessment of Emerson's portfolio and identified potential new market segments for investment. We designed the path forward based on a vision to create a pure-play automation company. Today, we achieved a significant milestone in this portfolio transformation by announcing the sale of a majority interest of the Climate Technologies business to Blackstone. Emerson, going forward, will be a unique automation company with a cohesive higher-growth portfolio exposed to diverse end markets and aligned to the world's secular trends, including digital transformation, sustainability, energy security and near-shoring. We have ample room to invest both organically and through disciplined capital deployment in M&A to build automation capabilities along our technology stack, which is industry-leading and is composed of intelligent devices, control and software, serving leading customers in process, hybrid and discrete industries.

正如我們將在今天的電話會議中討論的那樣，最重要的是，在終端市場增長和出色的運營執行力的支持下，我們對 2023 年的前景充滿信心。在 2021 年 2 月成為首席執行官後不久，我們開始了雄心勃勃的旅程，以加速為艾默生股東創造價值。這需要一個大膽的轉型議程，包括文化、投資組合和執行。與我們的董事會一起，我們對艾默生的投資組合進行了全面評估，並確定了潛在的新投資細分市場。我們基於創建一家純自動化公司的願景設計了前進的道路。今天，我們宣布將氣候技術業務的多數股權出售給 Blackstone，實現了這一投資組合轉型的重要里程碑。展望未來，艾默生將成為一家獨特的自動化公司，其具有凝聚力的高增長產品組合面向不同的終端市場，並與世界的長期趨勢保持一致，包括數字化轉型、可持續性、能源安全和近岸外包。我們有足夠的空間進行有機投資，並通過規範的資本部署進行併購，以沿著我們的技術堆棧構建自動化能力，該技術堆棧是行業領先的，由智能設備、控制和軟件組成，為過程、混合和離散行業的領先客戶提供服務.

We will do this while maintaining our commitment to return cash to our shareholders through share repurchase and the dividend. In 2023, we enter our 67th consecutive year of increased dividends per share. I'm excited and cannot think of a better time during my 27 years at Emerson to be optimistic about our future. To provide more details on our results, I'll now turn the call over to Frank.

我們將在保持承諾的同時通過股票回購和股息向股東返還現金。 2023 年，我們進入連續第 67 年增加每股股息。我很興奮，在艾默生的 27 年裡，我想不出比這更好的時間來對我們的未來保持樂觀。為了提供有關我們結果的更多詳細信息，我現在將電話轉給 Frank。

Thank you, Lal, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 5. As Lal mentioned, the fourth quarter was a strong finish to a very good year. Underlying sales grew 12% with Automation Solutions at 13% and Commercial & Residential at 10%. Segment EBITDA margins improved by 260 basis points on 54% adjusted EBITDA leverage, excluding AspenTech. Within the total segment margin improvement, Automation Solutions improved 190 basis points year-over-year, and commercial residential improved 250 basis points. Operational performance was exceptional with incremental margins exceeding 50% in both platforms.

謝謝你，Lal，大家早上好。請轉到幻燈片 5。正如 Lal 所提到的，第四季度是一個非常好的一年的強勁收官。基礎銷售額增長 12%，其中自動化解決方案增長 13%，商業和住宅增長 10%。不包括 AspenTech，調整後 EBITDA 槓桿為 54%，部門 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 260 個基點。在整個細分市場的利潤率提高中，自動化解決方案同比提高了 190 個基點，商業住宅提高了 250 個基點。運營表現非常出色，兩個平台的增量利潤率均超過 50%。

Price realization accelerated in the second half of the year, peaking in the fourth quarter as both businesses delivered on the price plans we communicated on previous calls. In particular, Commercial Residential realized more than 10 points of price in the second half, driving sequential improvement in leverage and margin. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.53 grew 16%, including a $0.04 contribution from AspenTech and despite a significant currency headwind, $0.05 in the quarter that will continue into 2023. Orders continue to be solid, up 6% in Automation Solutions and 7% in Commercial Residential on a 3-month roll. Automation Solutions backlog was reduced by $400 million in the quarter, but remains robust at $5.8 billion and supports our sales outlook for 2023. AspenTech contributed $251 million of sales in the quarter at nearly 33% adjusted EBITDA in what is typically a seasonally low quarter for the business. Please turn to Slide 6, and we'll review the full year in more detail. We believe we delivered excellent financial performance in 2022 despite widely known operational and geopolitical challenges. Underlying sales were up 9%, meeting our full year guidance. Adjusted segment EBITDA improved 140 basis points for the year with incremental margins of 36%, well ahead of our 30% target. This performance was enabled by favorable product and geographic mix, focused cost management and the ongoing benefits of our cost reset program mainly in Automation Solutions.

價格實現在下半年加速，在第四季度達到頂峰，因為兩家公司都按照我們在之前電話會議上傳達的價格計劃交付。尤其是商住下半年實現漲價10多點，帶動槓桿率和利潤率環比提升。調整後每股收益為 1.53 美元，增長 16%，其中包括來自 AspenTech 的 0.04 美元貢獻，儘管存在重大的貨幣逆風，但該季度的 0.05 美元將持續到 2023 年。訂單繼續穩定，自動化解決方案增長 6%，商業增長 7% 3個月的住宅。自動化解決方案積壓在本季度減少了 4 億美元，但仍保持在 58 億美元的強勁水平，並支持了我們對 2023 年的銷售前景。AspenTech 在本季度貢獻了 2.51 億美元的銷售額，調整後 EBITDA 接近 33%，而這通常是一個季節性低季度這生意。請轉到幻燈片 6，我們將更詳細地回顧全年。儘管眾所周知的運營和地緣政治挑戰，我們相信我們在 2022 年實現了出色的財務業績。基礎銷售額增長了 9%，達到了我們全年的預期。調整後的部門 EBITDA 全年提高了 140 個基點，利潤率為 36%，遠高於我們 30% 的目標。這一業績得益於有利的產品和地域組合、集中的成本管理以及我們主要在自動化解決方案中的成本重置計劃的持續收益。

That program, which we initiated in 2019, achieved its goal of 24% adjusted EBITDA for Emerson a year earlier than planned. Portfolio actions, primarily the addition of AspenTech added 50 basis points to the margin improvement. Adjusted EPS was $5.25, up 16% versus prior year, exceeding the high end of our guidance by $0.10. Free cash flow was down 20% versus the prior year, mainly due to higher working capital from strong sales growth and supply chain constraints that we experienced throughout the year. Nonetheless, free cash flow conversion was nearly 100% for 2022 after adjusting for the impact of nonoperating items, divertive and TOD gains and the exit from Russia. Turning to the business results. Automation Solutions underlying sales were up 7% for the year. Demand for the year played out much as we anticipated and the business delivered excellent profit performance despite ongoing electronic component challenges. Traditional process markets gained momentum as the year progressed, while hybrid and discrete markets remain strong throughout. Each of these markets grew in the mid- to high single-digit range. Underlying sales were led by 14% growth in the Americas and 11% growth in China.

我們於 2019 年啟動的該計劃比計劃提前一年實現了艾默生 24% 的調整後 EBITDA 的目標。投資組合行動，主要是 AspenTech 的加入，使利潤率提高了 50 個基點。調整後每股收益為 5.25 美元，比去年同期增長 16%，超出我們指導的高端 0.10 美元。自由現金流與去年相比下降了 20%，主要是由於我們全年經歷的強勁銷售增長和供應鏈限制導致營運資金增加。儘管如此，在調整了非經營性項目、分流和 TOD 收益以及退出俄羅斯的影響後，2022 年的自由現金流轉換率接近 100%。轉向業務結果。自動化解決方案的基礎銷售額全年增長了 7%。今年的需求與我們預期的差不多，儘管電子元件面臨持續挑戰，該業務仍實現了出色的盈利表現。隨著時間的推移，傳統工藝市場獲得了動力，而混合和離散市場在整個過程中保持強勁。這些市場中的每一個都在中高個位數範圍內增長。美洲增長 14%，中國增長 11%，帶動基礎銷售額增長。

Automation Solutions adjusted EBITDA improved 190 basis points versus the prior year, with 70% incremental margins. Commercial & Residential Solutions underlying sales grew 13%, including 10 points of price realization. The business delivered the price actions we committed for the second half and drove favorable price cost. Sales were supported by Climate Technologies broad-based demand in North America and Europe. Tools & Home Products growth moderated as the year progressed but profitability was cushioned by continued price realization. Adjusted EBITDA margins for Commercial Residential ended the year at 20.9%, down 70 basis points, as expected, but with significant improvement in the second half, largely due to achievement of the planned pricing actions. AspenTech contributed $656 million of sales at 38% adjusted EBITDA. Commercial initiatives and business integration are proceeding as planned. And as a reminder, 2022 financial results include a full year of Emerson's 2 contributed businesses and heritage AspenTech results from the closing date of May 16, 2022. Please turn to Page 7 for the EPS walk. As I said, 2022 adjusted EPS was $5.25, up 16%, driven primarily by operations, which contributed $0.68. Nonoperating items and share repurchase each contributed $0.03. We are very pleased with our 2022 financial results, which were achieved in a challenging environment. Now I will turn it back to Lal to provide his perspective on the significant portfolio announcement we made this month.

自動化解決方案調整後的 EBITDA 與去年相比提高了 190 個基點，利潤率增加了 70%。商業和住宅解決方案的基礎銷售額增長了 13%，其中包括 10 個價格實現點。該業務實現了我們在下半年承諾的價格行動，並推動了有利的價格成本。氣候技術在北美和歐洲的廣泛需求支持了銷售。隨著時間的推移，工具和家居產品的增長放緩，但持續的價格實現緩衝了盈利能力。商業住宅的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率截至年底為 20.9%，如預期的那樣下降了 70 個基點，但下半年有顯著改善，這主要是由於計劃的定價行動的實現。 AspenTech 貢獻了 6.56 億美元的銷售額，調整後 EBITDA 為 38%。商業舉措和業務整合正在按計劃進行。提醒一下，2022 年的財務業績包括從 2022 年 5 月 16 日截止日期算起，艾默生 2 項貢獻業務的全年業績和 AspenTech 的傳統業績。請轉到第 7 頁了解每股收益。正如我所說，2022 年調整後的每股收益為 5.25 美元，增長 16%，主要受運營推動，貢獻了 0.68 美元。非經營性項目和股票回購各貢獻了 0.03 美元。我們對我們在充滿挑戰的環境中取得的 2022 年財務業績感到非常滿意。現在我將把它轉回 Lal，就我們本月發布的重要投資組合公告提供他的觀點。

Thank you, Frank. Please join me on Slide 9. Our portfolio journey has been guided by a clear road map to transform Emerson into a pure-play automation company. And today marks a significant and definitive step on that journey. Our announcement to divest the majority interest in Climate Technologies to Blackstone is a milestone transaction for Emerson with compelling financial benefits. Emerson will monetize the majority of our Climate Technologies business and an attractive valuation of 12.7x 2022 EBITDA, providing approximately $9.5 billion of upfront pretax cash proceeds to invest in growth.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。請加入幻燈片 9。我們的投資組合之旅以清晰的路線圖為指導，將艾默生轉變為一家純粹的自動化公司。今天標誌著這一旅程的重要而明確的一步。我們宣布將氣候技術的多數股權轉讓給 Blackstone 對艾默生來說是一項里程碑式的交易，具有令人信服的財務收益。艾默生將通過我們的大部分氣候技術業務和 2022 年 EBITDA 的 12.7 倍有吸引力的估值獲利，提供約 95 億美元的前期稅前現金收益用於投資增長。

The transaction structure also enables additional cash proceeds from the future exit of our noncontrolling ownership. With the exit of Climate Technologies, we are creating a company with a cohesive portfolio, higher growth and profitability. Our leading technology and software will be positioned to capture secular growth trends in digital transformation, sustainability, decarbonization and near-shoring. The proceeds from the divestiture will focus on strategic automation acquisitions that will strengthen our business and diversify our end market exposure and to return capital to shareholders. We are excited about the long-term value creation opportunity this transaction unlocks, which we will have -- we will spend time discussing in a moment. Before that, I'll have Frank go over the details of the transaction and timing.

交易結構還可以從我們的非控制所有權的未來退出中獲得額外的現金收益。隨著氣候技術的退出，我們正在創建一家擁有凝聚力、更高增長和盈利能力的公司。我們的領先技術和軟件將定位於捕捉數字化轉型、可持續性、脫碳和近岸外包的長期增長趨勢。剝離的收益將集中在戰略自動化收購上，這將加強我們的業務，使我們的終端市場敞口多樣化，並向股東返還資本。我們對這筆交易解鎖的長期價值創造機會感到興奮，我們將擁有 - 我們將花時間討論。在此之前，我會讓弗蘭克復習交易和時間的細節。

Thanks, Lal. Please turn to Slide 10. Before I walk through the highlights of the transaction structure, I'd like to provide some background on the decision process that brought us to this point. When management and our Board made the decision to transform Emerson into a pure-play automation company, we began a rigorous analytical process with our external advisers to determine how to divest Climate Technologies in the most efficient and value-creating way for our shareholders. We explored the full range of alternative transaction structures to accomplish a separation, weighing all the relevant factors, including valuation, complexity of execution, timing and where we are in the market cycle for both the business and for public equities.

謝謝，拉爾。請轉到幻燈片 10。在介紹交易結構的重點之前，我想提供一些有關導致我們達到這一點的決策過程的背景。當管理層和我們的董事會決定將艾默生轉變為一家純粹的自動化公司時，我們與外部顧問開始了嚴格的分析過程，以確定如何以最有效和為股東創造價值的方式剝離氣候技術。我們探索了各種替代交易結構以實現分離，權衡所有相關因素，包括估值、執行的複雜性、時間以及我們在業務和公共股票市場週期中的位置。

We are confident the sale to Blackstone under the terms I will describe in a moment, provides the best execution for our shareholders, achieving an attractive multiple with certainty in an unsettled financial market environment. The upfront proceeds enable opportunistic capital deployment in the near term while retaining meaningful upside in the potential of the business under Blackstone's control, together with our sale of InSinkErator, at a multiple of 18x EBITDA, which is expected to close today, we can assure you that we are intently focused on maximizing the value of these world-class businesses most efficiently in the current market environment. With that as background, I will go through the headline elements of the transaction. Emerson will sell a majority stake in its Climate Tech business to Blackstone valuing the business at $14 billion, representing a 12.7x multiple on 2022 EBITDA. In addition to the pretax cash proceeds of approximately $9.5 billion, Emerson will also receive a note of $2.25 billion at closing and will retain a 45% common equity noncontrolling interest in a new joint venture that will own Climate Technologies.

我們相信，按照我稍後將描述的條款出售給 Blackstone，將為我們的股東提供最佳執行，在動蕩的金融市場環境中確定地實現有吸引力的倍數。前期收益可在短期內實現機會性資本配置，同時在 Blackstone 控制下的業務潛力中保持有意義的上行空間，連同我們以 18 倍 EBITDA 的倍數出售 InSinkErator，我們可以向您保證我們專注於在當前市場環境中最有效地最大化這些世界級企業的價值。以此為背景，我將介紹交易的標題元素。艾默生將把其氣候技術業務的多數股權出售給黑石，對該業務的估值為 140 億美元，相當於 2022 年 EBITDA 的 12.7 倍。除了約 95 億美元的稅前現金收益外，艾默生還將在收盤時收到 22.5 億美元的票據，並將在一家擁有氣候技術公司的新合資企業中保留 45% 的普通股非控制性權益。

The upfront cash consideration will be funded by $5.5 billion of fully committed debt financing and $4.4 billion equity contribution from Blackstone, including both common equity and convertible preferred. The entity will continue as a joint venture between Emerson and Blackstone until its sale or IPO, at which time Emerson would receive additional cash proceeds from its note and ultimately, from its 45% common equity ownership. Climate Technologies will be managed by Blackstone and Emerson will not be responsible for the operation of the business post closing. The transaction is expected to close in the first half of calendar year 2023 upon satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

前期現金對價將由 55 億美元的全額債務融資和 Blackstone 的 44 億美元股權出資提供，包括普通股和可轉換優先股。該實體將繼續作為艾默生和黑石的合資企業，直到其出售或首次公開募股，屆時艾默生將從其票據中獲得額外的現金收益，並最終從其 45% 的普通股所有權中獲得。氣候技術將由 Blackstone 管理，而艾默生將不負責業務關閉後的運營。該交易預計將在滿足慣例成交條件後於 2023 年上半年完成。

Our management team is working to identify the actions required to rightsize our corporate and platform functions. These actions will be sufficiently implemented by the time we close this transaction, eliminating any stranded costs that would have resulted from the sale. In addition, management is working on actions to streamline the corporate and platform structure consistent with our new scale, targeting approximately $100 million of run rate savings by the end of 2024. Additionally, Emerson is selling ownership of the St. Louis, Missouri headquarters campus to the joint venture. Terms include a 3-year lease back with an option to extend an additional 2 years.

我們的管理團隊正在努力確定正確調整我們的公司和平台職能所需的行動。到我們完成交易時，這些行動將得到充分實施，從而消除因銷售而產生的任何擱淺成本。此外，管理層正在採取措施精簡與我們的新規模相一致的公司和平台結構，目標是到 2024 年底節省約 1 億美元的運行率。此外，艾默生正在出售密蘇里州聖路易斯總部園區的所有權到合資企業。條款包括 3 年的回租，可選擇再延長 2 年。

During that time, Emerson will undertake a comprehensive assessment of potential headquarters locations, including in the St. Louis area based on the company's long-term interests. With that, I'll turn it back to Lal for additional insights.

在此期間，艾默生將根據公司的長期利益對包括聖路易斯地區在內的潛在總部地點進行全面評估。有了這個，我將把它轉回 Lal 以獲得更多見解。

Thank you, Frank. Please turn to Slide 11. Climate Technologies is a leading $5 billion global manufacturer of HVACR compression products related solutions and controls. The business has leading positions in its segments and upside potential, but is not aligned with our strategic vision for Emerson as a cohesive automation portfolio serving higher growth markets. Blackstone has a strong track record of growing businesses, and we are confident Climate Technologies will continue to thrive under their ownership. Please turn to Slide 12. Today's announcement is certainly our largest step, as I mentioned previously, but there were many others along the way. The work required creativity. And I am proud of what we have achieved in a very short time. We've invested approximately $9 billion in intelligent automation technology and software.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。請轉到幻燈片 11。氣候技術公司是全球領先的 HVACR 壓縮產品相關解決方案和控制製造商，價值 50 億美元。該業務在其細分市場和上升潛力方面處於領先地位，但與我們將艾默生作為服務於更高增長市場的凝聚力自動化產品組合的戰略願景不一致。 Blackstone 在業務增長方面有著良好的記錄，我們相信氣候技術將在他們的擁有下繼續蓬勃發展。請轉到幻燈片 12。正如我之前提到的，今天的宣布無疑是我們最大的一步，但在此過程中還有很多其他的。這項工作需要創造力。我為我們在很短的時間內取得的成就感到自豪。我們在智能自動化技術和軟件方面投資了大約 90 億美元。

This includes our recent acquisitions of Fluxa and Mita-Teknik and our 55% ownership of AspenTech and its announced acquisition of Micromine. These companies accelerate Emerson's growth profile, profitability and end market diversification into areas like renewable power, life sciences and metals and mining. We've also realized approximately $18 billion in gross proceeds from divesting noncore and slower growth assets at attractive valuations, like Climate Technologies, InSinkErator and Therm-O-Disc. Turning to Slide 13. This transformation positions Emerson as a $14 billion automation leader with an attractive growth profile, diverse end markets and leading technology. Emerson has the most complete portfolio of intelligent devices, control systems and software in the industry. This includes 13% of our sales from software inclusive of AspenTech, representing a leading percentage among industrial peers. These differentiated solutions and our expertise help customers solve their most complex challenges, including optimizing operations, protecting personnel, reducing emissions and achieving sustainability goals. Emerson is able to do this across a broad and diverse set of end markets within process hybrid and discrete and on a global scale.

這包括我們最近對 Fluxa 和 Mita-Teknik 的收購，以及我們對 AspenTech 55% 的所有權及其宣布的對 Micromine 的收購。這些公司加速了艾默生在可再生能源、生命科學、金屬和採礦等領域的增長情況、盈利能力和終端市場多元化。我們還通過以有吸引力的估值剝離非核心和增長放緩的資產（如氣候技術、InSinkErator 和 Therm-O-Disc），實現了約 180 億美元的總收益。轉到幻燈片 13。這種轉變使艾默生成為價值 140 億美元的自動化領導者，具有有吸引力的增長前景、多樣化的終端市場和領先的技術。艾默生擁有業內最完整的智能設備、控制系統和軟件產品組合。這包括我們 13% 的銷售額來自包括 AspenTech 在內的軟件，在行業同行中處於領先地位。這些差異化的解決方案和我們的專業知識可幫助客戶解決最複雜的挑戰，包括優化運營、保護人員、減少排放和實現可持續發展目標。艾默生能夠在全球範圍內的過程混合和離散範圍內的廣泛而多樣化的終端市場中做到這一點。

Turning to Slide 14. These end markets are experiencing key secular growth trends, as I mentioned earlier, and these are aligned with many of the world's most pressing challenges. First, through digital transformation programs, customers are spending more on sensing and data, software, digital twins and other intelligent solutions to gain more visibility into their operations. As we discussed during our AspenTech transaction announcement, we continue to see our customer share of wallet shift towards software and digital solutions. Next, as the world pushes to net zero, sustainability and decarbonization investments are growing at a rapid pace. This includes the decarbonization of existing infrastructure through optimization, energy efficiency and emission reductions projects. It also includes the introduction of new energy sources like clean fuels and hydrogen. Lastly, near-shoring trends around the world have widespread effects on many industries. Underpinning each of these secular growth drivers is the need for increased automation, creating an incremental prolonged investment period for the solutions that Emerson provides. We look forward to discussing these organic growth programs at our investor conference in November. I'll now turn the call back over to Frank for more details on Emerson moving forward.

轉到幻燈片 14。正如我之前提到的，這些終端市場正在經歷關鍵的長期增長趨勢，這些趨勢與世界上許多最緊迫的挑戰相一致。首先，通過數字化轉型計劃，客戶在傳感和數據、軟件、數字雙胞胎和其他智能解決方案上花費更多，以提高對其運營的可見性。正如我們在 AspenTech 交易公告中所討論的那樣，我們繼續看到我們的錢包客戶份額轉向軟件和數字解決方案。接下來，隨著世界推動淨零排放，可持續性和脫碳投資正在快速增長。這包括通過優化、能源效率和減排項目對現有基礎設施進行脫碳。它還包括引入清潔燃料和氫等新能源。最後，世界各地的近岸外包趨勢對許多行業產生了廣泛影響。這些長期增長驅動因素中的每一個都是對提高自動化的需求，從而為艾默生提供的解決方案創造了更長的投資期。我們期待在 11 月的投資者會議上討論這些有機增長計劃。我現在將電話轉回弗蘭克，以了解有關艾默生前進的更多細節。

Thank you, Lal. Please turn to Slide 15. This slide highlights Emerson's enhanced financial profile on several key metrics as we become a focused automation business. The transformation Lal discussed will position Emerson to increase its through-the-cycle growth rate to mid- to high single digits from historical low single-digit levels. Benefits from the pervasive secular growth trends that Lal mentioned and an emphasis on innovation will be important factors in this transformation. Our more concentrated exposure to these growth trends, our management process and widsized fixed cost structure will drive higher levels of profitability, reflected an expected incremental margins in the 35% range. Structurally, Emerson's new portfolio will have higher margins based on increasing software content and high-margin recurring aftermarket and subscription revenues. Emerson will be less capital intensive at approximately 2% of sales and cash conversion will continue to be strong at approximately 100% of net income.

謝謝你，拉爾。請轉到幻燈片 15。這張幻燈片突出了艾默生在幾個關鍵指標上增強的財務狀況，因為我們成為了一家專注的自動化業務。 Lal 討論的轉型將使艾默生將其整個週期的增長率從歷史低個位數水平提高到中高個位數。受益於 Lal 提到的普遍的長期增長趨勢以及對創新的重視，將是這一轉變的重要因素。我們更集中地接觸這些增長趨勢、我們的管理流程和廣泛的固定成本結構將推動更高水平的盈利能力，反映了 35% 範圍內的預期增量利潤率。在結構上，艾默生的新產品組合將基於不斷增加的軟件內容和高利潤率的經常性售後市場和訂閱收入而獲得更高的利潤率。艾默生的資本密集度將降低，約佔銷售額的 2%，現金轉換將繼續保持強勁，約占淨收入的 100%。

Please turn to Slide 16. We want to reiterate our commitment to a disciplined capital allocation strategy that balances growth with return of capital to our shareholders. The proceeds received from the Climate Tech and InSinkErator divestitures will enhance our ability to drive internal growth programs and expand our portfolio while continuing to provide robust cash returns to our shareholders. Driving organic growth will be a priority as we invest to accelerate innovation through new processes and higher R&D spend focusing on breakthrough technologies. Our balance sheet capacity will enable us to pursue strategic acquisitions in defined automation verticals to accelerate growth and enhance end market diversity. And we remain committed to providing meaningful cash returns to our shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases. We announced this morning that in 2023, we will increase our dividend for the 67th consecutive year. And we intend to repurchase $2 billion of our stock during the fiscal year. Please turn to Slide 17. We believe this transaction is a critical step in the process of unlocking value for our shareholders. This slide walks through the multiple levers that we believe support value creation potential. First, and importantly, is the value of the new Emerson, a company that benchmarks favorably against our automation peers in terms of growth outlook, profit margins, free cash flow conversion, and software content.

請轉到幻燈片 16。我們要重申我們對嚴格的資本分配戰略的承諾，該戰略在增長與向股東的資本回報之間取得平衡。從 Climate Tech 和 InSinkErator 資產剝離中獲得的收益將增強我們推動內部增長計劃和擴大我們的投資組合的能力，同時繼續為我們的股東提供強勁的現金回報。推動有機增長將是我們的首要任務，因為我們通過新流程和更多專注於突破性技術的研發支出來加速創新。我們的資產負債表能力將使我們能夠在定義的自動化垂直領域進行戰略收購，以加速增長並增強終端市場的多樣性。我們仍然致力於通過股息和股票回購為股東提供有意義的現金回報。我們今天早上宣布，2023 年，我們將連續第 67 年增加股息。我們打算在本財年回購 20 億美元的股票。請轉到幻燈片 17。我們認為，此次交易是為我們的股東釋放價值過程中的關鍵一步。這張幻燈片介紹了我們認為支持價值創造潛力的多個槓桿。首先，也是重要的一點是新艾默生的價值，這家公司在增長前景、利潤率、自由現金流轉換和軟件內容方面與我們的自動化同行相比具有優勢。

The second lever is our controlling ownership position in AspenTech, a premier industrial software leader whose market cap has increased 40% since we closed the transaction on May 16. As a part of Emerson, AspenTech enables significant strategic benefit to our business through the synergies we have discussed in the past and also provides a high multiple vehicle for further investment in industrial software. Third is the approximately $10 billion in cash net proceeds from the divestitures of Climate Tech and InSinkErator, which enables capital deployment at scale for organic growth and M&A and return of capital to shareholders via share repurchase. Finally, this transaction structure allows us to retain a noncontrolling investment in Climate Tech through both our $2.25 billion note and $2 billion in common equity, which will be monetized over time, providing additional resources for strategic investments. We believe all of these factors result in a compelling story supporting shareholder value creation. I hope you can see why we and our Board are excited about this transaction and the value potential we believe it will unlock for Emerson shareholders over time. Now please turn to Slide 19, and we'll discuss the outlook for 2023.

第二個槓桿是我們在 AspenTech 的控股權，這是一家領先的工業軟件領導者，自我們於 5 月 16 日完成交易以來，其市值已增長 40%。作為艾默生的一部分，AspenTech 通過我們的協同效應為我們的業務帶來顯著的戰略利益過去已經討論過，也為工業軟件的進一步投資提供了高倍數的載體。第三是氣候科技和愛適易剝離帶來的約 100 億美元現金淨收益，這使得資本能夠大規模部署以實現有機增長和併購，並通過股票回購向股東返還資本。最後，這種交易結構使我們能夠通過我們 22.5 億美元的票據和 20 億美元的普通股保留對氣候技術的非控制性投資，這些投資將隨著時間的推移貨幣化，為戰略投資提供額外資源。我們相信所有這些因素都會產生一個支持股東價值創造的引人入勝的故事。我希望你能明白為什麼我們和我們的董事會對這項交易感到興奮，以及我們相信隨著時間的推移它將為艾默生股東釋放的價值潛力。現在請轉到幻燈片 19，我們將討論 2023 年的前景。

We intend to report Climate Technologies, InSinkErator and Therm-O-Disc financial results as discontinued operations starting in the first quarter of 2023. This slide includes the 2022 reported results I discussed a few minutes ago on the left side. On the right side are the components of the reported results that will comprise our continuing operations in 2023. To continuing operations data for 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 are also included in the appendix for your reference. Continuing operations consist of Automation Solutions, AspenTech and our safety and productivity business, which is a rebrand of the core capabilities of our professional tools business after the InSinkErator divestiture. We will provide guidance for 2023 continuing operations, and that is how we will communicate about our business in the future. Also, we are in the process of determining the reporting segments for our new automation focused business, and we plan to provide additional information on segments at our Investor Day on November 29. If you would, please turn to Slide 20. We continue to see strong market dynamics in 2023. Process, hybrid and discrete markets are all expected to grow mid- to high single digits. Specifically, LNG, hydrogen and clean fuels will all benefit from energy security, resiliency and sustainability trends.

我們打算將氣候技術、InSinkErator 和 Therm-O-Disc 的財務業績報告為從 2023 年第一季度開始的停產業務。這張幻燈片包括我幾分鐘前在左側討論的 2022 年報告的業績。右側是報告結果的組成部分，將構成我們 2023 年的持續經營業務。2021 年和 2022 年第一季度的持續經營業務數據也包含在附錄中，供您參考。持續運營包括自動化解決方案、AspenTech 以及我們的安全和生產力業務，這是在 InSinkErator 剝離後對我們專業工具業務核心能力的重新命名。我們將為 2023 年的持續運營提供指導，這就是我們未來就我們的業務進行溝通的方式。此外，我們正在確定我們新的以自動化為重點的業務的報告細分，我們計劃在 11 月 29 日的投資者日提供有關細分的更多信息。如果您願意，請轉到幻燈片 20。我們將繼續看到2023 年市場動態強勁。流程、混合和離散市場預計都將增長中高個位數。具體而言，液化天然氣、氫氣和清潔燃料都將受益於能源安全、彈性和可持續性趨勢。

Life Sciences continues to be a growth opportunity for Emerson as ongoing investment support drug vaccine and medicine development. We expect 2023 to be another strong year for our discrete business coming off accelerated growth in the previous 2 years. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term prospects for discrete, especially within semiconductor, electronics and EV manufacturing markets. From a world area perspective, we expect Americas growth to continue to be strong, led by energy investments. European growth will likely lag as demand resulting from the energy crisis is expected to be offset from downside effects on our discrete and chemical businesses. We continue to keep a close watch on developments in China, but at this point, we still expect mid-single-digit sales growth in 2023. Please turn to Slide 21. Expected strength in our key end markets, together with our robust backlog support our guidance for underlying sales growth between 6.5% and 8.5%. Acquisitions, mainly AspenTech are expected to add another 4 points to reported growth, approximately offset by a currency headwind from the strong U.S. dollar, equating to negative 3.5 points of sales growth and approximately $0.09 of EPS headwind at current exchange rates. We remain committed to driving our business to mid-30s incremental margins through our operational execution with additional leverage from AspenTech.

生命科學繼續成為艾默生的增長機會，因為持續的投資支持藥物疫苗和藥物開發。我們預計 2023 年將是我們離散業務在前 2 年加速增長的又一個強勁年份。我們繼續看好分立器件的長期前景，尤其是在半導體、電子和電動汽車製造市場。從世界地區的角度來看，我們預計在能源投資的帶動下，美洲的增長將繼續強勁。由於能源危機導致的需求預計將被我們離散和化工業務的下行影響所抵消，歐洲的增長可能會滯後。我們繼續密切關注中國的發展，但在這一點上，我們仍預計 2023 年的銷售額將保持中個位數增長。請轉到幻燈片 21。我們主要終端市場的預期實力以及我們強大的積壓支持我們對基本銷售額增長的指導在 6.5% 和 8.5% 之間。收購，主要是 AspenTech，預計將使報告的增長再增加 4 個百分點，大約被強勢美元帶來的貨幣逆風所抵消，相當於按當前匯率計算，銷售額增長負 3.5 個百分點，每股收益逆風約為 0.09 美元。我們仍然致力於通過我們的運營執行以及 AspenTech 的額外槓桿，將我們的業務提高到 30 年代中期的增量利潤。

We expect adjusted EPS to increase from $3.64 in 2022 to between $4 and $4.15 in 2023, a 12% increase at the midpoint. Please note that the adjusted EPS guide does not include any interest income from undeployed divestiture proceeds, which could exceed $100 million at current interest rates if we close halfway through the fiscal year. Free cash flow conversion is expected to continue to approximate 100%. For the first quarter, we expect net and underlying sales to increase between 6% and 8%. Currency will be a substantial headwind in the first quarter, reducing sales growth by approximately 6 points and earnings per share by about $0.03 at current exchange rates. Adjusted earnings per share is expected to be between $0.85 and $0.89, a 10% increase at the midpoint. Before we head to Q&A, I'll pass it back to Lal for some closing comments. Thank you.

我們預計調整後的每股收益將從 2022 年的 3.64 美元增加到 2023 年的 4 美元至 4.15 美元之間，中點增長 12%。請注意，調整後的每股收益指南不包括未部署的剝離收益的任何利息收入，如果我們在本財年中途關閉，按當前利率計算可能超過 1 億美元。自由現金流轉換預計將繼續接近 100%。對於第一季度，我們預計淨銷售額和基本銷售額將增長 6% 至 8%。第一季度的匯率將是一個巨大的逆風，按當前匯率計算，銷售額增長將下降約 6 個百分點，每股收益將下降約 0.03 美元。調整後的每股收益預計在 0.85 美元至 0.89 美元之間，中點增長 10%。在我們開始問答之前，我將把它傳回給 Lal 以獲得一些結束評論。謝謝你。

Thank you, Frank. We hope you share our excitement about the future of Emerson, and the tremendous value creation opportunities ahead. The Climate Technologies transaction marks the biggest step in our portfolio transformation to a cohesive high-growth company. The $9.5 billion upfront cash proceeds from the transaction provides financial optionality as we look to strategically build out our leading automation portfolio. We are a great company and we will never rest on trying to be better. I'm excited about the future of Emerson. We look forward to speaking with all of you again at our investor conference in November, where we will share more about our ongoing value creation strategy. Thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。我們希望您分享我們對艾默生未來的興奮，以及未來巨大的價值創造機會。氣候技術交易標誌著我們向具有凝聚力的高增長公司轉型的最大一步。在我們尋求戰略性地構建我們領先的自動化產品組合時，該交易產生的 95 億美元的前期現金收益提供了財務選擇權。我們是一家偉大的公司，我們永遠不會停留在努力變得更好。我對艾默生的未來感到興奮。我們期待在 11 月的投資者大會上再次與大家交流，屆時我們將分享更多關於我們正在進行的價值創造戰略的信息。感謝您今天加入我們。

Thank you, Lal. We will now turn it to Q&A. As mentioned at the top of the call, we will ask that you limit your questions to just one. With that, I will turn the call over to the operator.

謝謝你，拉爾。我們現在將其轉為問答環節。如電話頂部所述，我們將要求您將問題限制在一個範圍內。有了這個，我會把電話轉給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Congrats on the deal. Lal, so I know it's early, but maybe you can give us a little more color into you'll use the $10 billion of cash you'll have post the transaction. You talked about spending $2 billion on share repurchases, but can you talk a little bit more about the priorities for spending the cash? Is Aspen is spending #1 on that list? And any more color you could give us on the new growth pillars that you'll talk about in a month.

恭喜成交。拉爾，所以我知道現在還為時過早，但也許你可以給我們更多的信息，讓我們了解一下你將使用交易後的 100 億美元現金。你談到了在股票回購上花費 20 億美元，但你能多談談花費現金的優先事項嗎？阿斯彭是在那個名單上花費#1嗎？您可以在一個月內談論的新增長支柱上為我們提供更多顏色。

Yes. I know, Andy, certainly, obviously, the $2 billion share repurchase is very important. But equally important is our discipline that we put in place around M&A. The work that I described alongside our Board to identify 4 priority industry segments is very important. We'll go into a lot of detail when we meet in November at investor conference on each of those 4 segments. But I will say that work continues -- is underway -- as we speak in potential activity in these segments. So we'll -- what I can tell you about each and every one of those is they're consistent with the automation stack. They are consistent with our perspective that we need a higher growth and end market diversification within our business. And I think we'll have a good discussion about that when we meet.

是的。我知道，安迪，當然，很明顯，20 億美元的股票回購非常重要。但同樣重要的是我們圍繞併購制定的紀律。我與董事會一起描述的確定 4 個優先行業領域的工作非常重要。當我們在 11 月的投資者會議上就這 4 個部分中的每一個部分開會時，我們將詳細介紹。但我要說的是，當我們談到這些領域的潛在活動時，工作仍在繼續 - 正在進行中。所以我們將 - 我可以告訴你的每一個都是它們與自動化堆棧一致。它們與我們的觀點一致，即我們需要在業務中實現更高的增長和終端市場多元化。我想當我們見面時我們會就此進行很好的討論。

The next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

I know you guys are going to have an analyst meeting, but I'm still going to probe on use of proceeds. You sort of stated that -- well, not stated, but my understanding was that you would have a plan for deploying the capital if you were to monetize the assets and you have been very active monetizing the assets. So I just want to understand the visibility on the funnel that you have because you have plenty of capital. If I think what's available, there is a private company that doesn't want to sell. There was a target that didn't want to sell that was public. So I'm just wondering sort of -- it seems like you're looking for a sizable target in automation space. And just what does the funnel look like?

我知道你們將召開分析師會議，但我仍將探討收益的使用情況。你有點說 - 好吧，沒有說，但我的理解是，如果你要通過資產貨幣化並且你一直非常積極地通過資產貨幣化，那麼你將有一個部署資本的計劃。因此，我只想了解您擁有的渠道的可見性，因為您擁有大量資金。如果我認為什麼是可用的，有一家私人公司不想出售。有一個不想出售的目標是公開的。所以我只是想知道——看起來你正在自動化領域尋找一個相當大的目標。漏斗是什麼樣的？

Thanks, Andrew. Obviously, I know you want me to start listing names of the companies. I can't do that.

謝謝，安德魯。顯然，我知道您希望我開始列出公司的名稱。我不能那樣做。

I would love it.

我會喜歡它。

As I've said, Andy. So a couple of things. Number one, clearly, we're looking for sizable opportunities in large markets. There has to be relative strength in market position for it to be relevant and impactful to the Emerson shareholder. We're looking for exposure in higher growth. We're looking for profitability and differentiated technology. And we certainly are going to be very diligent on the alignment to the technology stack and automation solutions. So those are the guiding principles. And I will tell you, the funnel is robust. It's very active. And our team in M&A led by Ram and Vincent Servello is doing a great job with it.

正如我所說，安迪。所以有幾件事。第一，顯然，我們正在大型市場中尋找可觀的機會。市場地位必須具有相對優勢，才能對艾默生股東產生影響和影響。我們正在尋找更高增長的機會。我們正在尋找盈利能力和差異化技術。我們當然會非常努力地與技術堆棧和自動化解決方案保持一致。所以這些是指導原則。我會告訴你，漏斗是健壯的。它非常活躍。我們由 Ram 和 Vincent Servello 領導的併購團隊在這方面做得很好。

The next question comes from Steve Tusa from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

Congratulations.

恭喜。

Thank you, Steve.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Yes. Busy start for you, Lal congrats on that. First of all, can you just walk us to the $14 billion valuation? It's like not quite clear to me how you guys are getting to that just based on the numbers you've given, like what kind of leverage the JV will have? And did the structure was just a tad bit, not 100% crystal clear.

是的。你的開始很忙，Lal 對此表示祝賀。首先，你能引導我們達到 140 億美元的估值嗎？對我來說，僅根據您提供的數字，我還不太清楚你們是如何做到這一點的，比如合資企業將擁有什麼樣的影響力？結構是否只是一點點，不是 100% 晶瑩剔透。

Sure. Steve, this is Frank. So there is a -- if you get to the $14 billion, basically, you've got about $4 billion, $4.3 billion being contributed by Blackstone in the form of common equity and the convertible preferred. That $5.5 billion of third-party senior debt, basically bank debt, and debt from other parties. So if you add that up, you get to the -- including our PIK note, $2.25 billion PIK note and our retained contribution, our retained equity, you get to $14 billion, and we can walk you through the exact numbers, but that's how you get there.

當然。史蒂夫，這是弗蘭克。所以有一個 - 如果你達到 140 億美元，基本上，你有大約 40 億美元，其中 43 億美元由黑石以普通股和可轉換優先股的形式提供。那 55 億美元的第三方優先債務，基本上是銀行債務，以及來自其他方的債務。所以如果你把它加起來，你會得到——包括我們的 PIK 票據，22.5 億美元的 PIK 票據和我們的留存貢獻，我們的留存股權，你會得到 140 億美元，我們可以告訴你確切的數字，但這就是你到那裡。

Okay. And then just the tax implications on an after-tax basis? And then just one quick follow-up.

好的。然後只是稅後的稅收影響？然後只是一個快速的跟進。

Sure. So the upfront proceeds on an after-tax basis, we expect will be around $7.8 billion. (inaudible) pretax, about $7.8 after tax on the upfront proceeds.

當然。因此，我們預計稅後的前期收益約為 78 億美元。 （聽不清）稅前，前期收益稅後約 7.8 美元。

And then one last one on the guide. The underlying orders are up about 6%, I guess, for the core kind of A&S business. You're trending at about that number exiting the year, but you're guiding to something higher than that? I mean, what's giving you the confidence that, that actually accelerates? Is that just backlog conversion going forward? And how do you expect these orders to trend as that lead time kind of normalizes?

然後是指南上的最後一個。我猜，核心 A&S 業務的基本訂單增長了約 6%。您正在接近今年退出的那個數字，但您正在引導更高的東西？我的意思是，是什麼讓你有信心，實際上會加速？這只是積壓轉換嗎？隨著交貨時間的正常化，您如何期望這些訂單的趨勢？

Yes, Steve, Ram here. Yes, you're spot on, I think, underlying orders are around 6%, and then we've got $5.8 billion plus of backlog in the automation business that will convert into next year. So we're pretty comfortable with the sales guide.

是的，史蒂夫，拉姆在這裡。是的，你說得對，我認為，基本訂單約為 6%，然後我們有超過 58 億美元的自動化業務積壓訂單將轉化為明年。所以我們對銷售指南很滿意。

The next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Congrats on the deal. Just maybe a follow-up on the '23 outlook and with Steve's question, how should we think about that volumetrically? Because I would imagine of that 6 point of order growth that you had that you got a lot of price in that. You said you got about 6 points of price, I think, in the core business this quarter. Just wondering how we should think about kind of the different pieces of the volume equation for '23? And then how much of that backlog draw you're baking into the guidance?

恭喜成交。可能只是對 23 年前景的跟進，以及史蒂夫的問題，我們應該如何從體積上考慮這個問題？因為我會想像你所擁有的 6 個訂單增長點，你會為此付出很多代價。你說你在本季度的核心業務中獲得了大約 6 個點的價格。只是想知道我們應該如何考慮 23 年體積方程的不同部分？然後，您將多少積壓吸引到指導中？

Yes. So from a price perspective, 2, 3 points of price, the rest will be volume. And I think we've got the $5.8 billion of backlog is high for the automation business. So we'll have backlog conversion baked into the plant. So I would say 3% to 4% volume growth, rest price plus the backlog drawdown.

是的。所以從價格上看，2、3個點的價格，剩下的就是量了。而且我認為我們有 58 億美元的積壓訂單對於自動化業務來說很高。因此，我們將在工廠中進行積壓轉換。所以我會說 3% 到 4% 的銷量增長，剩餘價格加上積壓的回撤。

Got it. That's helpful. And then this might be hard to pin down, but because Russia, Ukraine is so recent and it takes a while for your customers to move their feet on this, does that have any appreciable uptick from these new energy investments or LNG that would be specifically done as a result of Ukraine? Or is that still premature?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後這可能很難確定，但是因為俄羅斯、烏克蘭是最近才出現的，你的客戶需要一段時間才能在這方面有所行動，這些新能源投資或液化天然氣是否有任何明顯的增長？做為烏克蘭的結果？還是現在還為時過早？

No, I think it's very active, Josh. The activity, particularly in Louisiana, Texas and Mexico is incredibly robust. The number of projects that have been engineered and are going through funding and we're very engaged in through engineering contractor such as [Bechtel] are significant. And they're vastly in response to the energy security of Europe. And so we're pretty excited about what we're seeing right now.

不，我認為它非常活躍，喬希。這項活動，特別是在路易斯安那州、德克薩斯州和墨西哥，異常活躍。已經設計並正在獲得資金的項目數量非常多，我們通過 [Bechtel] 等工程承包商非常參與其中。他們在很大程度上是為了應對歐洲的能源安全。所以我們對我們現在所看到的感到非常興奮。

The next question comes from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

You guys are really busy. So congratulations on the deal. I just want a quick clarification. First of all, the (inaudible) adjustments to continue operations. I'm guessing about $0.10 or so I was trying to call it if you just maybe just confirm that. And then just dictate on the crack of the proceeds. When you think about automation, I mean, how you define that? Is that more software-centric automation companies? Or are you looking at more installed base type of opportunities? And within the mix, it's buying in the minority of AspenTech a possibility in the minimum options, is that even the possibility?

你們真的很忙。所以祝賀這筆交易。我只想快速澄清一下。首先，為繼續運營而進行的（聽不清）調整。我猜大約 0.10 美元左右，如果你只是確認一下，我就試著打電話給它。然後只決定收益的裂縫。當您想到自動化時，我的意思是，您如何定義它？那是更多以軟件為中心的自動化公司嗎？還是您正在尋找更多已安裝基礎類型的機會？在組合中，它在少數 AspenTech 中購買了最小選項的可能性，這甚至是可能性嗎？

So I'll take Parts B and C, and I'll turn it to Frank for the first part of your question, Nigel. So on AspenTech, we are in a 2-year standstill which we announced at the time of that transaction. So from that perspective, we are going to continue to operate under the current ownership structure that we have, which we feel very comfortable with how that's working. Secondly, in terms of future automation investments and M&A, it's consistent across the stack. We'll continue to look at intelligent devices. We'll probe around the control system area. And then obviously, you're absolutely right. There are opportunities around software as that market continues to move aggressively. Those investments will occur predominantly within the AspenTech structure. But we look across the entire stack with an eye towards growth and diversification. Frank?

所以我會選擇 B 部分和 C 部分，然後我將把它交給 Frank 來回答你問題的第一部分，Nigel。因此，在 AspenTech，我們處於 2 年的停頓狀態，我們在交易時宣布了這一點。因此，從這個角度來看，我們將繼續在我們現有的所有權結構下運營，我們對它的運作方式感到非常滿意。其次，就未來的自動化投資和併購而言，它在整個堆棧中是一致的。我們將繼續關注智能設備。我們將探索控制系統區域。然後很明顯，你是絕對正確的。隨著該市場繼續積極發展，圍繞軟件存在機會。這些投資將主要發生在 AspenTech 結構內。但我們審視整個堆棧，著眼於增長和多樣化。坦率？

Nigel, this is Frank. On Part A, I'm going to need you to help me out again with that question. I'm not sure I got it.

奈傑爾，這是弗蘭克。在 A 部分，我需要你再次幫助我解決這個問題。我不確定我明白了。

Yes. Okay. So let me take to correct this. So you just did -- continuing EPS is about 3.64, I think it is, which is about (inaudible) adjustments. So I'm getting about 1/3 contribution from some PP, about (inaudible) contribution from InSinkErator, and then (inaudible) that's trying to cost.

是的。好的。所以讓我來糾正這個。所以你剛剛做了 - 我認為持續每股收益約為 3.64，這與（聽不清）調整有關。所以我從一些 PP 中獲得了大約 1/3 的貢獻，大約來自 InSinkErator 的（聽不清）貢獻，然後（聽不清）這是試圖成本。

In the ballpark, I mean, we'll have to come back to you on that. I don't have the pieces exactly on that right now, but it's close, roughly in the mid-130s as you walk across from -- as we are to continuing ops for Emerald and $0.25 give or take between InSinkErator and Therm-O-Disc.

在球場上，我的意思是，我們將不得不就此問題與您聯繫。我現在還沒有確切的內容，但它已經很接近了，大約在 130 年代中期，因為我們將繼續為 Emerald 進行操作，並且在 InSinkErator 和 Therm-O- 之間給予或接受 0.25 美元光盤。

The next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

Congrats. Lal, just wondering on tools. I guess I heard it kind of framed as part of productivity solutions, which I guess maybe that could be an adjacency to automation of sorts? Or how should we think about that particular piece of the portfolio?

恭喜。 Lal，只是想知道工具。我想我聽說它是生產力解決方案的一部分，我想這可能與某種自動化相鄰？或者我們應該如何看待投資組合中的那個特定部分？

Yes, we did rebrand the tools business as safety productivity. So you have that right. It is, as you know, what we're talking about here is a technology-driven industrial and commercial application business at this point. So that's the way to think about it. There's a significant safety element around it and leverage within Automation Solutions, be it voltage detection, gas detection, which we do across that entire platform.

是的，我們確實將工具業務重新命名為安全生產力。所以你有這個權利。如您所知，我們在這裡談論的是技術驅動的工業和商業應用業務。所以這就是思考它的方式。它周圍有一個重要的安全元素，並在自動化解決方案中發揮作用，無論是電壓檢測、氣體檢測，我們都在整個平台上進行。

Having said that, as you think broadly about the portfolio, we have accomplished a lot in a short amount of time. Our belief and our board's belief was that Climate was the most significant move to unlock the potential. But look, portfolio management will continue to be active for -- across this company. And -- but we're very excited about the progress that we've made to date.

話雖如此，當您廣泛地考慮投資組合時，我們在很短的時間內取得了很多成就。我們的信念和董事會的信念是，氣候是釋放潛力的最重要舉措。但是看，投資組合管理將繼續活躍於整個公司。而且 - 但我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到非常興奮。

And then maybe just a follow-up, if I could, just again on the deal structure and the economics. At this EV and you guys pulling so much out upfront, I'm just trying to think about with the note being a PIK note and you got 45% of a highly leveraged entity, just how you expect that back end to actually ultimately play out?

如果可以的話，也許只是對交易結構和經濟性的跟進。在這個 EV 上，你們提前做了很多，我只是想考慮一下這張紙幣是 PIK 紙幣，你得到了一個高槓桿實體的 45%，你期望後端最終會如何發揮作用?

Jeff, this is Frank. Actually, we're very optimistic about the back end. The $2.25 billion PIK note is senior in the cap structure. So we feel very confident that we're going to get paid out on that on the accreted value at the appropriate time. So we have no concerns about that. And we think the prospects for the business are very good. So at the time that the monetization event occurs, we think that our common equity interest as well is going to be very good for us. So -- and there's a cap on the leverage as well. So we feel good about where we are on the PIK debt and the cap structure and about the overall leverage and cap structure for the business is 4x leverage is what we have going in, and that is as high as it's going to go.

傑夫，這是弗蘭克。實際上，我們對後端非常樂觀。 22.5 億美元的 PIK 票據在上限結構中處於優先地位。所以我們非常有信心，我們將在適當的時候獲得增值的回報。所以我們對此並不擔心。我們認為該業務的前景非常好。因此，在貨幣化事件發生時，我們認為我們的共同股權也將對我們非常有利。所以 - 槓桿也有上限。因此，我們對 PIK 債務和上限結構的位置以及業務的整體槓桿率和上限結構感到滿意，我們所採用的槓桿是 4 倍，而且將達到最高水平。

The next question comes from John Walsh from Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰沃爾什。

Congratulations.

恭喜。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

It's come out in a couple of different ways, looking at the guidance for next year, but maybe can you talk a little bit about the inflation side of the equation and maybe tie it all together on kind of price cost expectation for us as we go through next year, first half, second half? Or you going to talk about it?

它以幾種不同的方式出現，看看明年的指導，但也許你能談談等式的通貨膨脹方面，也許在我們走的時候把它們聯繫在一起，對我們的價格成本預期到明年，上半年，下半年？或者你會談論它嗎？

Well, I think for us, as we were green in the fourth quarter, and we expect to be green on a price cost basis as we go into next year. Certainly, the automation business was green throughout last year and '22. And so the expectation will be to expect to continue. And we're not going to give you exact numbers right yet, possibly as we go into the year, we will. But I think you can bake in positive price cost for the automation business or Emerson continuing ops going into next year.

好吧，我認為對我們來說，因為我們在第四季度是綠色的，我們預計在進入明年的價格成本基礎上是綠色的。當然，自動化業務在去年和 22 年都是綠色的。因此，期望將繼續下去。而且我們還不會給你確切的數字，可能在我們進入這一年的時候，我們會的。但我認為你可以為自動化業務或艾默生明年的持續運營提供正價格成本。

The next question comes from Chris Snyder from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to follow up with a quick one on capital deployment. So the company has spoken a lot about further M&A on the automation side to build out the portfolio. Will the company look at deals over the near term? Or should we assume that further M&A will come after deal close and the liquidity injection?

我想快速跟進資本部署。因此，該公司已經就自動化方面的進一步併購發表了很多言論，以擴大投資組合。公司會考慮短期內的交易嗎？還是我們應該假設在交易完成和流動性注入之後會出現進一步的併購？

No. Look, these deals take time. Things take time to consummate. We're always working and building relationships and thinking about markets and studying markets. So it's an ongoing process for us. And whether it comes well aligned with close prior or shortly after there may be some activity, but I can't predict timing to be honest with you.

不，看，這些交易需要時間。事情需要時間來完善。我們一直在工作和建立關係，思考市場和研究市場。所以這對我們來說是一個持續的過程。並且它是否與之前或之後不久的密切一致可能會有一些活動，但老實說我無法預測時間。

The next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

My first question, Slide 13, just a clarification question. So software and control systems, intelligent devices, this is how you guys are going to be segmenting going forward. And then I guess within that, the old like tools and Home Products business is like roughly, what, like $1.5 billion, $1.6 billion in revenues, excluding InSinkErator?

我的第一個問題，幻燈片 13，只是一個澄清問題。所以軟件和控制系統，智能設備，這就是你們將如何進行細分。然後我猜在這裡面，舊的類似工具和家居產品業務大概是什麼，比如 15 億美元，16 億美元的收入，不包括愛適易？

Yes, correct. That's correct, Joe.

是，對的。沒錯，喬。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then secondly, just AspenTech, I'd be curious, I think the implied, I guess, the EBITDA from this quarter was roughly, call it, $80 million, $85 million. It's a little bit lighter than our expectations. I'm just -- I'm curious, like what's embedded in your guidance for 2023 for AspenTech EBITDA?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。其次，只是 AspenTech，我很好奇，我認為隱含的，我猜，本季度的 EBITDA 大致是，稱之為，8000 萬美元，8500 萬美元。它比我們的預期要輕一點。我只是 - 我很好奇，就像您對 AspenTech EBITDA 的 2023 年指導中的內容一樣？

First off, I think the -- as Frank mentioned, this quarter is seasonally low for AspenTech. So I think the 33% EBITDA on the $251 million is consistent with our overall plan. Frank, I'll let you comment on what we have baked in from an overall...

首先，我認為——正如弗蘭克所說，本季度對 AspenTech 來說是季節性低點。因此，我認為 2.51 億美元中 33% 的 EBITDA 與我們的總體計劃是一致的。弗蘭克，我會讓你評論一下我們從整體上烤出來的東西......

Yes. I would expect, Joe, this is Frank. I would expect it'll be in the mid-40s, 50s, EBITDA percent over the full year for AspenTech. It's very seasonal. And as Ram said, this is a low quarter, but the business is very profitable when it leverages.

是的。我希望，喬，這是弗蘭克。我預計 AspenTech 全年的 EBITDA 百分比將在 40 多歲、50 多歲之間。這是非常季節性的。正如拉姆所說，這是一個低迷的季度，但該業務在利用槓桿時非常有利可圖。

The next question comes from Brett Linzey from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Brett Linzey。

Congratulations. Just want to come back to the operating leverage. So you're guiding mid- to high 30s for the continuing ops in '23. Could you maybe just unbundle that in terms of how we should think about the volume incrementals versus price cost and other maybe any efficiencies that are getting ironed out for next year.

恭喜。只想回到經營槓桿。因此，您正在為 23 年的持續運營指導中高 30 歲。你能不能把我們應該如何考慮數量增量與價格成本以及其他可能在明年解決的任何效率問題上分開。

No, I think Ram had voiced this correctly earlier. We expect somewhere around 2 to 3 points of price, the remainder of this coming from volume and then that mid- to high 30s on the leverage. That's a significant move up from our historical guidance, which has been at 30% on that operating leverage, and we feel comfortable with this new portfolio to guide significantly higher.

不，我認為拉姆早些時候說得對。我們預計價格在 2 到 3 個點左右，其餘部分來自交易量，然後是槓桿率的中高點 30 年代。這與我們的歷史指導相比有了顯著提升，該指導的運營槓桿率一直為 30%，我們對這個新的投資組合能夠大幅提高指導感到滿意。

Okay. Great. And just a quick follow-up. I wanted to come back to the sales outlook, too. So it looks like you're guiding Q1 at 7%, full year, 7.5% at the midpoint. So that does suggest you expect that rate of growth to build despite the comps getting a little bit difficult in the second half. Is this just backlog timing or something about mix we should be thinking about in the model?

好的。偉大的。只是一個快速的跟進。我也想回到銷售前景。所以看起來你將第一季度指導為 7%，全年，中點為 7.5%。因此，這確實表明您預計儘管下半年的比賽變得有點困難，但增長率仍會建立。這只是積壓時間還是我們應該在模型中考慮的混合？

No, it's primarily the timing of the backlog and how it comes through the conversion process, so we do expect some moderate acceleration as we go through the year.

不，這主要是積壓的時間以及它是如何通過轉換過程的，所以我們確實預計在這一年中會有一些適度的加速。

The next question comes from Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

I wanted to ask on the pipeline of reshoring activity. And if you could go into a more detail across the end markets, maybe where you see the strongest opportunities there, things outside of batteries and semiconductors and also just vis-a-vis kind of elevated macro uncertainty, whether you're seeing any pause in some of that planning and how you're thinking about the sort of timeline around that pipeline?

我想問一下回流活動的管道。如果你能更詳細地了解終端市場，也許你會看到那裡最強大的機會，電池和半導體之外的東西，以及宏觀不確定性的升高，無論你是否看到任何停頓在某些計劃中以及您如何考慮圍繞該管道的那種時間表？

No, great question. Thank you. In terms of nearshoring, I think you mentioned 2 very important ones, battery manufacturing and semiconductor. But the third that I would ask you to consider it will be life sciences, particularly around drug reshoring personalized medicine. We're seeing significant investments, not just in the United States, but in Europe, that development and manufacturing comes in from Asia. In terms of the macro environment, I think the one caution I would express is Europe, and that is really around energy costs in Europe and the challenges, particularly to energy-intensive industries such as discrete or in the chemical industry as examples.

不，很好的問題。謝謝你。在近岸外包方面，我認為您提到了兩個非常重要的，電池製造和半導體。但我希望你考慮的第三個將是生命科學，特別是在藥物回流個性化醫療方面。我們看到大量投資不僅在美國，而且在歐洲，開發和製造都來自亞洲。就宏觀環境而言，我認為我要表達的一個警告是歐洲，這實際上是圍繞歐洲的能源成本和挑戰，特別是以離散或化工等能源密集型行業為例。

The next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

Congratulations, guys. Just a quick one on AS end market trends. So orders did fall a little bit this quarter. I'm sure comps is a big part of that. But -- if you could talk a little bit Lal or anyone about what you're seeing in the business with the key end markets, definitely oil and gas, too.

恭喜，伙計們。快速了解 AS 終端市場趨勢。因此，本季度的訂單確實有所下降。我敢肯定comps是其中的重要組成部分。但是——如果你能和 Lal 或任何人談談你在關鍵終端市場的業務中看到的情況，當然也包括石油和天然氣。

Yes. No, good question. Yes, comps have gotten more challenging, clearly, but we have tremendous momentum in the business in terms of orders as we go into the year, particularly in North America. And that's really the big driver, which gives us even more confidence, Nicole to guide aggressively as we go into 2023. The North America growth is driven by energy investments that I talked about earlier, particularly LNG is driven by sustainability in new energy sources, conversions, refineries into clean fuels, new hydrogen investments, and overall decarbonization work that's been done across multiple industries on the continent. And then secondly, the second category would be the near-shoring industries we just mentioned, semiconductor investments, life science investments, battery EV investments drive a significant amount of that growth.

是的。不，好問題。是的，很明顯，comps 變得更具挑戰性，但是隨著我們進入這一年，特別是在北美，我們在訂單方面的業務發展勢頭強勁。這確實是最大的推動力，讓我們更有信心，妮可在我們進入 2023 年時積極指導。北美的增長是由我之前談到的能源投資推動的，特別是液化天然氣是由新能源的可持續性推動的，轉換、煉油廠向清潔燃料、新的氫能投資以及整個非洲大陸多個行業完成的整體脫碳工作。其次，第二類是我們剛才提到的近岸產業，半導體投資、生命科學投資、電池電動汽車投資推動了這一增長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session and the conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節和會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。