Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the EastGroup Properties Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎來到 EastGroup Properties 2023 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Marshall Loeb, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給總裁兼執行長馬歇爾·勒布 (Marshall Loeb)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for calling in for our Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. As always, we appreciate your interest. Brent Wood, our CFO, is also on the call. Since we'll make forward-looking statements, we ask that you listen to the following disclaimer.

早安，感謝您撥打我們的 2023 年第四季電話會議。一如既往，我們感謝您的關注。我們的財務長布倫特伍德 (Brent Wood) 也參加了電話會議。由於我們將做出前瞻性陳述，因此我們要求您聽取以下免責聲明。

Please note that our conference call today will contain financial measures such as PNOI and FFO that are non-GAAP measures as defined in Regulation G. Please refer to our most recent financial supplement and to our earnings press release, both available on the Investor page of our website and to our periodic reports furnished or filed with the SEC for definitions and further information regarding our use of these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of them to our GAAP results.

請注意，我們今天的電話會議將包含PNOI 和FFO 等財務指標，這些指標是G 條例中定義的非GAAP 指標。請參閱我們最新的財務補充資料和收益新聞稿，兩者均可在投資者頁面上找到。我們的網站以及我們向 SEC 提供或提交的定期報告，以了解有關我們使用這些非 GAAP 財務指標以及將其與我們的 GAAP 結果進行核對的定義和進一步資訊。

Please also note that some statements during this call are forward-looking statements as defined in and within the safe harbors under the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements in the earnings press release, along with our remarks, are made as of today, and reflects our current views about the company's plans, intentions, expectations, strategies and prospects based on the information currently available to the company and on assumptions it has made.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的一些陳述屬於《1933 年證券法》、《1934 年證券交易法》和《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》安全港中定義的前瞻性陳述。本財報新聞稿而我們的言論是截至今天發布的，反映了我們基於公司目前掌握的資訊及其所做的假設對公司的計劃、意圖、預期、策略和前景的當前看法。

We undertake no duty to update such statements or mark whether as a result of new information, future or actual events or otherwise. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please see our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for more detail about these risks.

我們不承擔因新資訊、未來或實際事件或其他原因而更新此類聲明或標記的義務。此類陳述涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果有重大差異的因素。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告，以了解有關這些風險的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Keena. Good morning. I'll start by thanking our team for a strong quarter and year in which we delivered record FFO per share and record re-leasing spreads. Our team continues performing at a high level and finding opportunities in an evolving market.

謝謝，基娜。早安.首先，我要感謝我們的團隊在季度和年度的強勁表現，我們實現了創紀錄的每股 FFO 和創紀錄的再租賃利差。我們的團隊繼續保持高水準表現，並在不斷發展的市場中尋找機會。

Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate the quality of the portfolio we've built and the continued resiliency of the industrial market. Some of the results produced include: Funds from operations coming in above guidance, up 11.5% for the quarter and 11.3% for the year. For over a decade, our quarterly FFO per share has exceeded the FFO per share reported in the same quarter prior year, truly a long-term trend. Quarter-end occupancy rose 50 basis points from prior quarter to 98.2%. Occupancy would have been 30 basis points higher, but for a leased and occupied late December acquisition.

我們第四季和全年的業績證明了我們所建立的投資組合的品質以及工業市場的持續彈性。產生的一些結果包括： 營運資金高於指導，本季成長 11.5%，全年成長 11.3%。十多年來，我們的季度每股 FFO 已經超過了去年同期報告的每股 FFO，這確實是一個長期趨勢。季末入住率較上一季上升 50 個基點，達 98.2%。如果不是 12 月底收購的房屋已出租並已入住，入住率將會高出 30 個基點。

Our percent lease rose 20 basis points from prior quarter to 98.7%. Average occupancy was 98.1%, which although historically strong, was down 30 basis points from 2022. Quarterly re-leasing spreads reached a record at 62% GAAP and 43% cash. These results broke the previous record set last quarter and pushed year-to-date spreads to 55% GAAP and 38% cash. Cash same-store NOI was strong, up 7.5% for the quarter and 8% year-to-date. And finally, I'm happy to finish the quarter with FFO rising to $2.03 per share. Helping us to achieve these results is thankfully having the most diversified rent roll in our sector, with our top 10 tenants falling to 7.9% of rents, down 70 basis points from fourth quarter '22 and in more locations. We view our geographic and tenant diversity as ways to stabilize future earnings regardless of the economic environment.

我們的租賃百分比較上一季上升 20 個基點，達到 98.7%。平均入住率為 98.1%，儘管處於歷史高位，但較 2022 年下降了 30 個基點。季度再租賃利差達到創紀錄的 62% GAAP 和 43% 現金。這些業績打破了上季創下的紀錄，並將年初至今的利差推至 55% GAAP 和 38% 現金。現金同店 NOI 強勁，本季成長 7.5%，年初至今成長 8%。最後，我很高興本季末 FFO 上漲至每股 2.03 美元。值得慶幸的是，幫助我們取得這些成果的是我們行業中最多元化的租金清單，我們的十大租戶的租金下降至7.9%，比22 年第四季度下降了70 個基點，並且在更多地點。無論經濟環境如何，我們都將地理和租戶多樣性視為穩定未來收入的方法。

In summary, I'm proud of the performance last year, especially given the larger economic backdrop. We continue responding to strengthen the market end user demand for industrial product by focusing on value creation via raising rents, development and, more recently, acquisitions. This strength allowed us to end the quarter 98.7% leased and push rents throughout the portfolio. Due to current capital markets, we're seeing broader strategic acquisition opportunities. It's hard to accurately gauge how large the opportunity may be or when the window may close, but we're pleased with our ability to acquire newer, fully leased properties with below market rents at accretive yields.

總而言之，我對去年的表現感到自豪，特別是考慮到更大的經濟背景。我們繼續透過提高租金、開發以及最近的收購來專注於價值創造，以加強市場最終用戶對工業產品的需求。這一優勢使我們能夠在本季末實現 98.7% 的出租率，並推動整個投資組合的租金上漲。由於當前的資本市場，我們看到了更廣泛的策略收購機會。很難準確地衡量機會有多大或窗口何時關閉，但我們對能夠以低於市場租金的價格收購更新的、完全出租的房產並獲得增值收益感到滿意。

As stated before, our development starts are pulled by market demand within our parks. Based on our read-through, we're forecasting 2024 starts of $300 million. And though our developments continue leasing with solid prospect interest, we're seeing longer deliberate decision-making. While we forecast $300 million in starts, we'll ultimately follow demand on the ground to dictate the pace. Based on the decision-making time frames we're seeing, I expect starts to be more heavily weighted to the second half of 2024. Further, in this environment, we're seeing 2 promising trends. The first thing, the decline in industrial starts. Starts have fallen 5 consecutive quarters with fourth quarter 2023 being roughly 60% lower than third quarter 2022 when the decline began. Assuming reasonably steady demand, the markets will tighten in 2024, allowing us to continue pushing rents and create development opportunities.

如前所述，我們的開發案是由園區內的市場需求所拉動的。根據我們的通讀，我們預測 2024 年的開工金額為 3 億美元。儘管我們的開發項目繼續以穩定的潛在利益進行租賃，但我們看到更長的深思熟慮的決策。雖然我們預計啟動資金為 3 億美元，但我們最終將根據實際需求來決定進度。根據我們看到的決策時間框架，我預計到 2024 年下半年，決策權重將開始加大。此外，在這種環境下，我們看到了兩個有希望的趨勢。首先是工業開工下降。開工率已連續 5 個季度下降，其中 2023 年第四季比 2022 年第三季開始下降時約低 60%。假設需求相當穩定，市場將在 2024 年收緊，使我們能夠繼續推高租金並創造發展機會。

The second trend is the rise in investment opportunities with developers who have completed significant site work prior to closing and need capital to move forward. This allows us to take years off our traditional development time line and materially reduce the site development legal risk.

第二個趨勢是，開發商的投資機會增加，這些開發商在交割前已經完成了重要的現場工作，需要資金來推進。這使我們能夠將傳統的開發時間縮短數年，並大大降低網站開發的法律風險。

Brent will now speak to several topics, including assumptions within our initial 2024 guidance. As always, we'll update our forecast as the year unfolds. My belief is that when or if interest rates begin to follow confidence and stability within the business community will rise.

布倫特現在將談論幾個主題，包括我們最初的 2024 年指導中的假設。像往常一樣，我們將隨著時間的推移更新我們的預測。我的信念是，當利率開始追隨商業界的信心和穩定性時，利率就會上升。

Good morning. Our fourth quarter results reflect the terrific execution of our team, the resilient performance of our portfolio, and the continued success of our time-tested strategy.

早安.我們第四季度的業績反映了我們團隊的出色執行力、我們投資組合的彈性表現以及我們經過時間考驗的策略的持續成功。

FFO per share for the fourth quarter was $2.03 per share, compared to $1.82 for the same quarter last year, an increase of 11.5%. The outperformance continues to be driven by stellar operating portfolio results and the success of our development and acquisition programs. From a capital perspective, the strength in our stock price continued to provide the opportunity to access the equity markets. During the quarter, we sold shares for gross proceeds of $235 million at an average price of $171.55 per share. Additionally, we executed on our forward equity program for the first time, securing gross proceeds of $75 million at an average initial price of $183.92 per share.

第四季FFO每股為2.03美元，較去年同期的1.82美元成長11.5%。出色的業績繼續受到出色的經營組合業績以及我們的開發和收購計劃的成功的推動。從資本角度來看，股價的強勢持續為我們提供進入股市的機會。本季度，我們以每股 171.55 美元的平均價格出售股票，總收益為 2.35 億美元。此外，我們首次執行了遠期股權計劃，以每股 183.92 美元的平均初始價格獲得了 7,500 萬美元的總收益。

Subsequent to year-end, we settled $50 million, with $25 million in commitments still outstanding. Although capital markets are fluid, our balance sheet remains flexible and strong with solid financial metrics. Our debt to total market capitalization was 16%. And for the quarter, our unadjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio is down to 3.9x and our interest and fixed charge coverage ratio was 9.6x.

年底後，我們結清了 5,000 萬美元，還有 2,500 萬美元的承諾尚未兌現。儘管資本市場瞬息萬變，但我們的資產負債表依然靈活、強勁，財務指標穩健。我們的債務佔總市值的比例為 16%。本季度，我們未經調整的債務與 EBITDA 比率降至 3.9 倍，利息和固定費用覆蓋率為 9.6 倍。

Looking forward to 2024, FFO guidance for the first quarter is estimated to be in the range of $1.93 to $2.01 per share and $8.17 to $8.37 for the year. Those midpoints represent increases of 8.2% and 7.4% compared to the prior year, excluding involuntary conversion gain as a result of insurance claims, respectively. Notable operating assumptions that comprise our 2024 guidance include: an average occupancy midpoint of 97.0%, cash same property midpoint of 6.0%, bad debt of $2 million, $300 million in new development starts, and $130 million in strategic acquisitions, $55 million of which has already been executed.

展望 2024 年，第一季 FFO 指引預計為每股 1.93 至 2.01 美元，全年指引為 8.17 至 8.37 美元。與前一年相比，這些中點分別增加了 8.2% 和 7.4%，不包括保險索賠導致的非自願轉換收益。構成我們2024 年指引的重要營運假設包括：平均入住率中點為97.0%，現金同業中點為6.0%，壞帳為200 萬美元，新開發案開工3 億美元，策略收購1.3 億美元，其中5,500萬美元已經被執行了。

During this period of elevated interest rates, we continue to view equity proceeds as our most attractive capital source. In our guidance for the year, we are projecting $465 million in common stock issuances, $75 million of which has already been secured via the forward equity program, as mentioned earlier. 2024 has minimal debt maturing with $50 million in August and the remaining $120 million not until December.

在利率上升的這段時期，我們繼續將股權收益視為最具吸引力的資本來源。在我們今年的指導中，我們預計發行 4.65 億美元的普通股，其中 7,500 萬美元已透過遠期股權計畫獲得，如前所述。 2024 年的債務極少，其中 5,000 萬美元將於 8 月到期，其餘 1.2 億美元要到 12 月才能到期。

In summary, we are pleased with our solid 2023 results. Thank you, EastGroup team members that are listening to the call. As we turn the page to 2024, we will continue to rely on our financial strength, the experience of our team and the quality and location of our portfolio to maintain our momentum.

總之，我們對 2023 年的穩健表現感到滿意。謝謝正在聆聽電話的 EastGroup 團隊成員。當我們翻過這一頁到 2024 年時，我們將繼續依靠我們的財務實力、團隊的經驗以及我們投資組合的品質和位置來保持我們的勢頭。

Now Marshall will make final comments.

現在馬歇爾將做出最終評論。

Thanks, Brent. In closing, I'm proud of the results and the value our team is generating. Internally, operations remain strong, and we continue to strengthen the balance sheet. Externally, the capital markets and overall environment remain clouded. This is leading to the continued decline in starts. So in the meantime, we're working to maintain high occupancies while pushing rents.

謝謝，布倫特。最後，我對我們團隊所創造的成果和價值感到自豪。在內部，營運依然強勁，我們持續強化資產負債表。從外部來看，資本市場和整體環境依然陰雲密布。這導致開工率持續下降。因此，同時，我們正在努力維持高入住率，同時推高租金。

And in spite of the uncertainty, I like our positioning as our portfolio is benefiting from several long-term positive secular trends, such as population migration, nearshoring and onshoring trends, and evolving logistics chains, for example. We also have a proven management team with a long-term public track record. Our portfolio quality in terms of buildings and markets is continually improving each quarter, our balance sheet is stronger than ever, and we're expanding our diversity in both our tenant base as well as our geography.

儘管存在不確定性，但我喜歡我們的定位，因為我們的投資組合受益於一些長期積極的長期趨勢，例如人口遷移、近岸和在岸趨勢以及不斷發展的物流鏈。我們還擁有一支久經考驗的管理團隊，擁有長期的公共業績記錄。我們在建築和市場方面的投資組合品質每季都在不斷提高，我們的資產負債表比以往任何時候都更加強勁，我們正在擴大租戶基礎和地理位置的多樣性。

With that, we'd like to open up the call for your questions.

至此，我們願意開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Craig Mailman from Citibank.

（操作員說明） 您的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Craig Mailman。

Marshall, I just wanted to touch on the acquisition environment getting a little bit better for you guys. You've been more of a developer over the last couple of years. What are you seeing from a pricing perspective that on a risk-adjusted basis is compelling relative to where you're developing? And how much of the remaining, kind of -- it was about $80 million, $75 million embedded in guidance, what's the visibility on that? And kind of where are the markets that you guys are targeting?

馬歇爾，我只是想談談為你們改善一點的採購環境。在過去的幾年裡，您更像是一名開發人員。從定價的角度來看，您認為在風險調整的基礎上相對於您正在開發的領域具有吸引力的是什麼？剩下的大約是 8000 萬美元，7500 萬美元包含在指導中，這方面的可見性如何？你們的目標市場在哪裡？

Thanks, Craig. And if you'll allow me, maybe before we dive in, I'll let the people on the call, a little bit of baton switch. We prerecorded the call Brent Wood has the flu or is under the weather today. So you've got Staci Tyler, we're in Staci's capable hands and mind. So if you don't hear Brent, he'll be back tomorrow, but he's under the weather today. On the acquisition environment, we've been encouraged and the sense that it's almost 2 different buckets. On a portfolio of properties, cap rates have remained low and they feel more competitive. And by portfolio, I'm thinking 3 or 4 buildings where our team has been successful in finding opportunities.

謝謝，克雷格。如果你允許的話，也許在我們開始之前，我會讓接聽電話的人稍微切換一下接力棒。我們預先錄製了電話：布倫特·伍德今天患了流感或身體不舒服。因此，史黛西·泰勒 (Staci Tyler) 就是我們的助手，史黛西能幹的雙手和頭腦將為我們提供幫助。所以，如果你沒有聽到布倫特的聲音，他明天就會回來，但他今天不太舒服。在收購環境方面，我們受到了鼓勵，並且感覺這幾乎是兩個不同的桶。在房地產投資組合中，資本化率仍然很低，而且感覺更具競爭力。從投資組合來看，我認為我們的團隊在 3 或 4 棟建築中成功地找到了機會。

And if I go back to about the midpoint last year till today, we've acquired 6 buildings, kind of a little bit of color, if it helps, so a little over, call it, $225 million. The average age is 1.5 years old. So they've been new buildings with rents, typically slightly below market where they got leased up. And it's added about $0.08 a year on our run rate in terms of FFO, if you match it with the equity that we issued in the quarter we closed, is kind of how we were looking at it.

如果我回到去年的中點到今天，我們已經收購了 6 棟建築，有點色彩，如果有幫助的話，所以有點超出，稱之為 2.25 億美元。平均年齡1.5歲。因此，它們都是新建築，租金通常略低於租賃時的市場價格。如果將其與我們在關閉季度發行的股本相匹配，那麼按 FFO 計算，我們的運行率每年會增加約 0.08 美元，這就是我們的看法。

They've all been different and that they've been one-off. But in some cases, it's been a seller who needed to close by certainty. One, it was a group that had a property tied up, had gotten at least and needed funds to close, so we assumed the contract. A marketing process that didn't work out the way the brokers, we weren't originally in it. We came in later. And our pitch has been, we may not be your highest offer, but because of our line and we've been issuing equity, we're your certain path to closing. And 2 years ago, 1 year ago, that really wasn't a point of differentiation. And all of a sudden, it's become an ability. And we've kind of viewed it as we want to own well-located infill industrial buildings in our markets. Whether we build them or acquire them, we'll adjust to kind of where the risk returns are.

它們都是不同的，而且都是一次性的。但在某些情況下，賣家需要確定地關閉。第一，這是一個擁有財產的團體，至少已經獲得併需要資金來關閉，所以我們承擔了合約。行銷過程並不像經紀人那麼有效，我們最初並沒有參與其中。我們後來進來了。我們的宣傳是，我們可能不是您的最高報價，但由於我們的產品線和我們一直在發行股權，我們是您達成交易的必經之路。兩年前，一年前，這確實不是一個區別點。突然之間，它變成了一種能力。我們認為它是因為我們希望在我們的市場上擁有位置優越的填充式工業建築。無論我們建造它們還是收購它們，我們都會根據風險回報進行調整。

And of that batch our average, call it, GAAP cap rate, they're leased, and it's been about a 6.5% type GAAP return. So that's what when you compare it to an equity cost in the 4s, and a GAAP return at 6.5% on a blended average on brand-new buildings that are like -- usually we underwrite a year to lease up a development, and these were 1.5 years old.

在這批產品中，我們的平均值，稱之為 GAAP 資本化率，它們是出租的，大約是 6.5% 的 GAAP 回報率。因此，當你將其與 4 美元的股權成本進行比較時，以及全新建築的混合平均 GAAP 回報率為 6.5% 時，情況就是這樣的——通常我們會承保一年來租賃開發項目，這些是1.5歲。

So that's -- that has really been a new development in the market. And I'll tie it to interest rates. All of a sudden, people that were underwriting and using low-cost debt, we had a more competitive cost of equity or cost of capital using our equity than we normally do. And I think that window will slam shut on us, unfortunately, when interest rates start coming the other way. But in the meantime, we've kind of turned over a lot of stones and found some really what I'd call unique situations. But it doesn't take that many to add $0.08 a year to our FFO. So it's a longer answer than maybe you were seeking, but that's really kind of how they've played out.

所以這確實是市場上的新發展。我會將其與利率掛鉤。突然間，對於那些承銷和使用低成本債務的人來說，我們的股權成本或使用我們股權的資本成本比平時更具競爭力。不幸的是，當利率開始朝相反的方向發展時，我認為這個窗口將對我們關閉。但同時，我們已經翻開了很多石頭，發現了一些我所說的獨特情況。但每年為我們的 FFO 添加 0.08 美元並不需要那麼多人。所以這個答案可能比你想要的還要長，但這確實是他們的表現。

And we've got, I say, visibility. We're always in the market bidding on a handful of properties in our markets, and that's probably where we are today. Nothing big coming. And the last comment I'll make, I've been a little bit on that bottleneck. We could have done more. I'll take the blame for not wanting to use our line -- run off our line and then issue equity. That's really what led us to add the forward component to our ATM in fourth quarter.

我說，我們有可見性。我們總是在市場上競標市場上的少數房產，這可能是我們今天的處境。沒什麼大不了的。我要說的最後一條評論是，我已經談到了這個瓶頸。我們本來可以做得更多。我會因為不想使用我們的線路而受到指責——跑出我們的線路，然後發行股票。這確實促使我們在第四季度向 ATM 添加了前向組件。

So now it allows us to match-fund the acquisitions a whole lot better than we did because, before, I was probably a light switch to the teams in the field saying we've got capital, we don't have capital, and it usually takes 6 weeks to a month to run through more of the bidding process on a property.

因此，現在它使我們能夠比以前更好地為收購提供配套資金，因為以前，我可能只是向該領域的團隊輕輕開關說我們有資本，我們沒有資本，而且它通常需要6 周到一個月的時間來完成房產的更多投標過程。

Okay. And that's really helpful. And so that 6.5% is probably what low 6%, high 5s going in. And so when you compare that to your cash on cash kind of development returns and adjust for cost of carry and risk, you guys kind of view that as very favorable.

好的。這真的很有幫助。因此，6.5% 可能是低 6%、高 5 的水平。因此，當您將其與現金現金類型的開發回報進行比較並調整持有成本和風險時，您會認為這是非常有利的。

Yes. If you look, maybe 2 parts in our supplement, and I may be off slightly, but about pages 11 and 12, we're developing to about a 6.9% gap. So if we can buy a 6.5% and take leasing and construction risk away, I will say, and it's been a function of the teams mainly and the market rents, last year, what we developed -- what we delivered all leased, and it was in the higher 7s. So we've been coming out ahead of where we thought we would be, thankfully, on our developments. But a new building and that delta between a development and an acquisition all of a sudden looked more attractive for this moment in time.

是的。如果你看一下，也許我們的增刊中有 2 部分，我可能略有偏差，但關於第 11 頁和第 12 頁，我們正在發展到大約 6.9% 的差距。因此，如果我們可以購買 6.5％ 並消除租賃和建設風險，我會說，這主要取決於團隊和市場租金，去年，我們開發的東西 - 我們交付的全部租賃的，它處於較高的7位。因此，值得慶幸的是，我們的發展已經超出了我們的預期。但一棟新建築以及開發與收購之間的三角洲突然在此時顯得更具吸引力。

Okay. And you led me to my next question, is going to be the introduction of forward. So really, you'll kind of use the ATM to fund near-term spend that you need and the forward is more for when you think you're going to be kind of closing on an acquisition, you may employ that if it makes sense.

好的。你引出了我的下一個問題，前鋒的介紹。所以，實際上，您會使用 ATM 來為您需要的近期支出提供資金，而遠期則更多地用於當您認為您將完成收購時，如果有意義，您可以使用它。

Yes. And I think the other thing, I think that's true. And I know we'll see you here in a month, so more inputs welcome when we sit down. We viewed the forward if it's an attractive price, an attractive meaning at or above our internal NAV, at or above the Street, and we feel pretty good about ideally, the uses, being it's our own development pipeline or acquisitions, if we can get out -- if we have a year to take down the forward, if we can get out ahead of it and really prefund some, so we know we've got that capital, but we don't have to pull it down today, really it's another kind of tool in the toolkit and a nice one, so, because acquisitions are so clunky coming and going.

是的。我認為另一件事，我認為這是真的。我知道我們一個月後會在這裡見到你，所以當我們坐下來時歡迎更多的意見。如果它是一個有吸引力的價格，一個有吸引力的意義，等於或高於我們的內部資產淨值，等於或高於華爾街，我們就會看到遠期，並且我們對理想情況下的用途感到非常滿意，因為它是我們自己的開發管道或收購，如果我們能夠獲得退出- 如果我們有一年的時間來取消預付款，如果我們能夠提前退出並真正預先提供一些資金，那麼我們知道我們已經擁有了這筆資金，但我們今天實際上不必取消它它是工具包中的另一種工具，而且是一個很好的工具，因為收購來來去去都非常笨拙。

I didn't want to -- I was nervous. I didn't want to get -- run the line up and then you have to issue equity to kind of get back to where you want to be. Because if we're using debt, is kind of where you were at, you're buying at a low 6% cash and you're funding at a low 6% cash today. So we don't like that. But if we can use our equity and maybe get a little bit ahead and this -- we'll either use it on development, which we know we'll have our leap of faith that, out of the 5 properties we're always bidding on, someone's going to say yes to us eventually.

我不想——我很緊張。我不想——運行線路，然後你必須發行股權才能回到你想要的地方。因為如果我們使用債務，就像你當時的情況一樣，你將以低 6% 的現金利率購買，並且今天以低 6% 的現金利率融資。所以我們不喜歡這樣。但是，如果我們可以利用我們的股權，也許能取得一點領先，那麼我們要么將其用於開發，我們知道我們將有信心，在我們一直競標的 5 處房產中繼續下去，最終會有人對我們說「是」。

Yes. And one thing I would add to that, Craig, is just the timing. So much of the year, we're in blackout due to earnings as a public company. So it just gives us flexibility on the timing of when we can receive the cash. We don't have to be in an open trading window in order to actually receive the funds. So that gives us some additional flexibility.

是的。克雷格，我要補充的一件事就是時機。一年中的大部分時間，我們都因上市公司的利潤而陷入停電。因此，它只是讓我們在收到現金的時間上具有靈活性。我們不必處於開放的交易窗口才能實際收到資金。這給了我們一些額外的彈性。

If I could slip one more in, and maybe if I could squeeze in -- by the way, congrats on your promotion.

如果我能再塞進去一個，也許我可以擠進去——順便說一句，恭喜你升職了。

I appreciate that. Thank you.

我很感激。謝謝。

The G&A ramp this year looks a little bit more than what you typically have. Is there something onetime in that number?

今年的一般行政費用成長看起來比平常要多一些。這個數字裡面有一次性的東西嗎？

The main driver there, about 2/3 of the additional G&A in our '24 guide is due to a slowdown in development starts. So we have our internal development team that spends their time on development and construction activities. We capitalize a portion of the costs related to that team based on the development projects that they're working on.

我們的 24 年指南中約 2/3 的額外 G&A 是主要驅動因素，是由於開發啟動速度放緩。因此，我們有內部開發團隊，他們將時間花在開發和建立活動上。我們根據該團隊正在進行的開發專案將與該團隊相關的部分成本資本化。

So in our guide, where in '23 we had $360 million of development starts, and our guide for '24 million is $300 million, so that slowdown in development starts means that we have less in development fees that we'll be recording. When we record those fees, it's a reduction in G&A and it adds to the basis of the properties.

因此，在我們的指南中，23 年我們的開發啟動資金為 3.6 億美元，而我們的 2,400 萬美元指南為 3 億美元，因此開發啟動的放緩意味著我們將記錄的開發費用減少。當我們記錄這些費用時，它會減少一般行政費用，並增加財產的基礎。

So hopefully, there's some upside in that hopefully G&A ends up being less because we're able to start more development projects. But to be conservative with making prudent business decisions, we felt like it was best to lower the guide for development starts. And in turn, that added about $0.05 of G&A compared to '23. That's the main driver. And then we -- our team is growing as the company grows. So we're adding a few people to the team, and then typical additional investments and other aspects of G&A, ESG and some other matters. But the main driver there is the development phase.

因此，希望 G＆A 最終會減少，因為我們能夠啟動更多的開發項目，這會帶來一些好處。但為了保守地做出審慎的業務決策，我們認為最好降低開發啟動指南。與 23 年相比，這又增加了約 0.05 美元的一般管理費用。這是主要驅動力。然後我們——我們的團隊隨著公司的發展而成長。因此，我們在團隊中增加了一些人員，然後是典型的額外投資以及一般行政管理、ESG 和其他一些事項的其他方面。但主要驅動力是開發階段。

Is that partially offset though by lower cap interest drag from starting those projects, so is it a full $0.05? Or is it something a little bit smaller?

這是否會被啟動這些項目的較低上限利息拖累部分抵消，所以它是完整的 0.05 美元嗎？還是稍微小一點的東西？

Well, it's really 2 separate things. So we have capitalized interest, but then these internal development costs are really more personnel costs. So the impact to G&A is for our team's time that they spend on the development projects. So it's offsetting salaries and other compensation costs. You're welcome.

嗯，這確實是兩件不同的事情。所以我們有資本化的利息，但是這些內部開發成本其實更多的是人員成本。因此，對一般行政費用的影響是我們團隊花在開發專案上的時間。因此，它抵消了工資和其他補償成本。不客氣。

Your next question comes from Jeff Spector of Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

First question, I know we constantly talk about onshore and nearshoring, Marshall, I know you mentioned it quickly. I guess could we just touch on that? Anything new there in light of what we're seeing in terms of potential impact on ports, et cetera? I guess if we could touch on that first.

第一個問題，我知道我們經常談論在岸和近岸外包，馬歇爾，我知道你很快就提到了這一點。我想我們可以談談這個嗎？根據我們所看到的對港口等的潛在影響，有什麼新的嗎？我想我們是否可以先談談這個問題。

Sure. I guess we view it, or my view, in case it's wrong, it's really a long-term trend. When people make the decision on their kind of China Plus One manufacturing, which port it comes through. And I think that -- I was kind of reading through some of the pieces on the Suez Canal. That's why there's -- look, you can make money being an owner and a developer around ports, but it really reinforced to me that's a very fluid dynamic environment.

當然。我想我們是這麼看的，或者說我的觀點，萬一它是錯的，這確實是一個長期趨勢。當人們對中國加一製造做出決定時，它會通過哪個端口。我認為——我正在閱讀一些有關蘇伊士運河的文章。這就是為什麼——看，作為港口的所有者和開發商，你可以賺錢，但這確實讓我強化了這是一個非常流動的動態環境。

We want to be near the consumer and a growing base of consumers because I don't think that flips from Houston is gaining market share from L.A. and then last year L.A. is gaining it back and things like that, although we like both of those markets. We do feel, when I look at El Paso, we're 100% leased, Phoenix 99%, San Diego is strong. And some of our best rent growth markets and our company are in those -- in our portfolio in those markets.

我們希望貼近消費者和不斷增長的消費者基礎，因為我不認為來自休士頓的翻轉正在從洛杉磯獲得市場份額，然後去年洛杉磯又重新獲得了市場份額，儘管我們喜歡這兩個市場。當我看到埃爾帕索時，我們確實感覺到，我們 100% 已出租，菲尼克斯 99%，聖地亞哥也很強大。我們的一些租金成長最好的市場和我們的公司都在這些市場中——在我們在這些市場的投資組合中。

So we still feel long term strong and it really is a function of we're looking for opportunities in all of those markets to kind of take steps one at a time to grow our portfolio. We're really -- we've looked for that next opportunity in San Diego and El Paso. We're active there. Phoenix, we've got some development land. It's really a timing issue of when we kick that off.

因此，我們仍然感覺長期強勁，這確實是我們在所有這些市場中尋找機會，一次採取一項措施來擴大我們的投資組合的結果。我們確實在聖地牙哥和埃爾帕索尋找下一個機會。我們在那裡很活躍。鳳凰城，我們有一些開髮用地。這實際上是我們何時開始的時間問題。

But we like that segment of our portfolio. What I like, and I was reading, when you look at where so many of the EV manufacturers are, besides the nearshoring, which I know it was your question, but on the onshoring, it really, they run through the Carolinas, Georgia and into Florida. And certainly, Texas is seeing a lot of kind of technology manufacturing. I like the tailwinds we have, whether it's green energy, we seem to get an awful lot of it within our footprint in the Carolinas and Georgia. And then what we're seeing in Dallas and Austin, especially in terms of more tech. And again, we won't have the manufacturer, but we'll have the supplier. And if we don't have the supplier, there'll still be that ripple effect of just growth in the local economy.

但我們喜歡我們投資組合中的這一部分。我喜歡什麼，我正在讀什麼，當你看看這麼多電動車製造商都在哪裡時，除了近岸外包之外，我知道這是你的問題，但在岸岸外包方面，確實，他們遍布卡羅來納州、喬治亞州和進入佛羅裡達州。當然，德克薩斯州正在見證多種技術製造。我喜歡我們所擁有的順風，無論是綠色能源，我們似乎在卡羅萊納州和喬治亞州的足跡中獲得了大量的綠色能源。然後我們在達拉斯和奧斯汀看到了什麼，特別是在更多科技方面。再說一遍，我們不會有製造商，但我們會有供應商。如果我們沒有供應商，當地經濟成長仍然會產生連鎖反應。

Great. And then again, a follow-up on the acquisition guidance. I believe you talked about the $130 million. Is that -- that's strictly for operating properties. Can you talk about, I guess, land purchases in '24?

偉大的。然後是收購指南的後續行動。我相信你談到了1.3億美元。那就是——這嚴格適用於經營財產。我想你能談談 24 年的土地購買嗎？

Sure. We've got a little bit of land, yes. And on acquisitions, I'll preface it, that's always a hard -- look, we've usually missed that number. Obviously, we spent a fair amount of that. We had the Spanish Ridge in Las Vegas, which we closed. I hope we beat that number. If we find the right opportunities and we have affordable capital, we'd like to beat that number.

當然。是的，我們有一點土地。關於收購，我會在序言中指出，這始終是一個很難的問題，我們通常會錯過這個數字。顯然，我們花了相當多的錢。我們在拉斯維加斯有西班牙山脊，但我們關閉了它。我希望我們能打破這個數字。如果我們找到合適的機會並且擁有負擔得起的資本，我們希望打破這個數字。

On land, so we have land that we have tied up as EastGroup. Maybe it's kind of come in the last year 2 different ways. Land that we tie up, and we'll try to get as far through the zoning and permitting and wetlands issue and everything else that may come up before closing, to kind of minimize that time between closing. And we've got a few parcels tied up currently, you saw us close. And then some like in Atlanta this year where it's -- the other kind of newer path to finding land has been someone's approached us, and they've done all of that work.

在陸地上，我們擁有作為 EastGroup 捆綁的土地。也許去年它以兩種不同的方式出現。我們捆綁的土地，我們將盡力解決分區、許可和濕地問題以及關閉前可能出現的所有其他問題，以盡量減少關閉之間的時間。我們目前有幾個包裹被綁起來，你看到我們已經接近了。然後像今年在亞特蘭大一樣，另一個尋找土地的新方法是有人聯繫我們，他們已經完成了所有這些工作。

But now you're not selling forward lands on a forward sale that you used to, and that's expenses. So they've come to us, and we've seen it in Denver and Tampa, Atlanta and in Austin a couple of times, where it's another local regional developer has done all the legal work and things are ready and they could use our help in closing. Either we buy it completely for them or work out some kind of venture where they have upside.

但現在你不再像以前那樣透過遠期銷售來出售遠期土地，這就是費用。所以他們來找我們，我們在丹佛和坦帕、亞特蘭大和奧斯丁見過幾次，那裡的另一個當地區域開發商已經完成了所有法律工作，一切都準備好了，他們可以使用我們的幫助在結束時。我們要么完全為他們購買，要么在他們有優勢的地方進行某種冒險。

And that's been an interesting new path kind of given the constrained capital markets where the legal risk -- because sometimes we don't get through the zoning. Everyone wishes they wants their package delivered quickly, you just don't want it to originate from your neighborhood, so kind of that NIMBY effect, where we've tied up land and sometimes we don't close it, and it's kind of a dry well. You've put some time and money into it and you have to walk away. But we like where people have come to us at the 11th hour to kind of help them get it closed, and that's the other part.

考慮到有限的資本市場存在法律風險，這是一條有趣的新路徑——因為有時我們無法通過分區。每個人都希望他們的包裹能夠快速送達，你只是不希望它來自你的鄰居，所以有點鄰避效應，我們佔用了土地，有時我們不關閉它，這有點像乾燥良好。你已經投入了一些時間和金錢，但你必須離開。但我們喜歡人們在第 11 個小時來找我們幫助他們解決問題，這就是另一部分。

So with the land we have on our balance sheet, we feel good about, and there's always another kind of, to me, like an iceberg, the part you don't see if we've got another 100 to 200 acres tied up here and there where we're kicking tires. And if everything checks out, we'll go ahead and close, but we have it under control, but we haven't closed yet.

因此，對於我們資產負債表上的土地，我們感覺很好，而且總有另一種，對我來說，就像冰山一樣，如果我們還有另外100 到200 英畝的土地被綁在這裡，你就看不到那部分。以及我們正在踢輪胎的地方。如果一切順利，我們將繼續關閉，但我們已經控制住了，但我們還沒有關閉。

So we feel it's market by market. But overall, I'd say we feel pretty good about the land we have. And I think when things -- I think it's things are going to turn given the drop in supply where, when the business environment does stabilize a little bit where I could be optimistic about our starts this year, I think it will be a fairly quick or reasonably quick turn where buildings are going to fill up, and there's not a lot of inventory in the stores, especially in our size range right now. The vacancy is higher in the big box and it's still fairly tight in kind of the 200,000 and below sized buildings.

所以我們覺得這是逐個市場的。但總的來說，我想說我們對我們擁有的土地感覺很好。我認為，鑑於供應下降，當商業環境確實穩定下來，我對今年的開局感到樂觀時，我認為事情將會發生轉變，我認為這將是一個相當快的過程。或者相當快的轉變，建築物將被填滿，並且商店中沒有很多庫存，尤其是在我們目前的尺寸範圍內。大盒子的空置率較高，但對於20萬及以下規模的建築來說，空置率仍然相當緊張。

Your next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb of Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Alexander Goldfarb。

And Staci, echoing Jeff's comments, congrats on all the terms -- on the promotion. So that's awesome.

史塔西回應傑夫的評論，並對所有條款表示祝賀——對晉升。所以這太棒了。

Thank you, Alex.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。

And hopefully, the comp committee takes notice. Two questions here. First, just going back to the ATM, Marshall. EastGroup has long used the ATM to fund its investments. Going to a forward is that's sort of a playbook out of what the apartment guys have done more over the past few years. So do you see you shifting in terms of how you use the ATM? Or what was it about the forward issuance now where, traditionally, you guys have been quite comfortable using sort of a traditional ATM mindset?

希望薪酬委員會能夠注意到這一點。這裡有兩個問題。首先，回到 ATM，馬歇爾。 EastGroup 長期以來一直使用 ATM 為其投資提供資金。打前鋒是公寓裡的人在過去幾年裡所做的更多事情的一個劇本。那麼您是否發現自己在使用 ATM 機的方式上發生了轉變？或者，現在的遠期發行是怎麼樣的？傳統上，你們一直很習慣使用傳統的 ATM 思維？

And then Staci, does this affect timing of the settlement of the shares? You guys have issuance in the guidance, but I'm not sure now if we should think about this settling later in the year or sort of modeling ratable as we normally would.

那麼 Staci，這會影響股票結算的時間嗎？你們已經發布了指南，但我現在不確定我們是否應該在今年晚些時候考慮這個解決方案，或者像我們通常那樣進行建模。

Okay. Alex, on the ATM, look, we still like the ATM a lot, and we'll -- we intend to use both. And really, as we've -- again, we're -- we've thought -- given where our -- you're always historically tempted to use your line. Short-term debt with long-term assets is how you get in trouble as a REIT. But our line cost is higher than our equity cost for this past year. So we'll use the traditional ATM probably until we really get the line to a fairly low or flat balance.

好的。亞歷克斯，關於 ATM，你看，我們仍然很喜歡 ATM，而且我們打算同時使用兩者。事實上，正如我們——再次，我們——我們所認為的——考慮到我們的——歷史上你總是想使用你的線路。短期債務與長期資產是房地產投資信託基金陷入困境的原因。但去年我們的線路成本高於我們的股權成本。因此，我們可能會使用傳統的 ATM 機，直到我們真正達到相當低或持平的餘額為止。

And at that point, if we still like the price given the blackout periods and things like that, that Staci mentioned earlier, that's probably where -- if I generalize, that's where we'll toggle over to the forward. And its money that we know we will have a good use for and we're at attractive pricing. And we can kind of put that on the shelf for it's really when you need it. You give the banks a couple -- 48 or 72 hours' notice and bring it down later.

到那時，如果我們仍然喜歡 Staci 之前提到的停電期和類似情況的價格，那可能是——如果我概括的話，那就是我們將切換到前進的地方。我們知道這筆錢會得到很好的利用，而且我們的價格也很有吸引力。我們可以把它放在架子上，因為當你真正需要的時候它就會出現。你需要提前 48 或 72 小時通知銀行，然後再取消。

So that's how we're thinking. We'll still use both and we'll probably have a limit where we will have a limit on how much we have of each. We're not going to get out too far over our skis in terms of uses. But it gives us an ability to kind of have equity on the shelf like when we closed Las Vegas earlier in the year, even though we're in a blackout, we were able to fund that through the forward. And Staci, I'll let you -- I'll echo the congrats, definitely well deserved, but I'll let you talk about the timing.

這就是我們的想法。我們仍然會使用兩者，我們可能會受到限制，即我們對每種產品的擁有量都有限制。我們不會在滑雪板的使用方面走得太遠。但這使我們有能力將股權擱置起來，就像我們今年早些時候關閉拉斯維加斯一樣，即使我們處於停電狀態，我們也能夠透過遠期資金為其提供資金。 Staci，我會讓你——我會回應你的祝賀，這絕對是當之無愧的，但我會讓你談談時機。

Yes. Sounds good. Yes. And I agree with what Marshall was saying that the forward will continue to issue under the regular ATM as well. It's all part of one program. So we can easily toggle back and forth and some of it will just depend on the market, pricing, timing, whether we're in blackout.

是的。聽起來不錯。是的。我同意馬歇爾所說的，前鋒也將繼續在常規 ATM 下發行。這都是一個程式的一部分。因此，我們可以輕鬆地來回切換，其中一些只取決於市場、定價、時間安排，以及我們是否處於停電狀態。

But what we have built into our guidance is funding, more heavily weighted to the back half of the year. And that really is in line with the timing of potential development starts and acquisitions. But all of that will obviously change based on market conditions and actual.

但我們在指導中納入的是資金，更著重於今年下半年。這確實符合潛在開發啟動和收購的時機。但所有這些顯然都會根據市場狀況和實際情況而改變。

But in terms of the actual funding, when we execute forward, like Marshall said, we can have that forward outstanding. And then whenever we need the funding, we just give 24, 48 hours notice and then we issue the shares and actually receive the cash. So it gives us a lot of flexibility in terms of our cash needs. And we know that we have the forwards that we have outstanding on the shelf, we'll hope to add to that. And then in the meantime, we can issue under the regular ATM as long as we're not in the blackout.

但就實際資金而言，當我們向前執行時，就像馬歇爾所說的那樣，我們可以讓該遠期得以實現。然後，每當我們需要資金時，我們只需發出 24、48 小時通知，然後我們發行股票並實際收到現金。因此，它在現金需求方面為我們提供了很大的靈活性。我們知道我們擁有出色的前鋒，我們希望能夠補充這一點。同時，只要我們沒有處於停電狀態，我們就可以在常規 ATM 機上提款。

Okay. Second question is -- and Brent is not on the call, so you guys will have to fill in for his conservative assumptions. But the past -- this year and in the past 2 years, you guys have come out with expectations of occupancy drop and sort of, hey, things could get worse. And in fact, the markets hold up well, your performance holds up well and the occupancy outperforms, everything does well.

好的。第二個問題是──布倫特沒有參加電話會議，所以你們必須補充他的保守假設。但過去——今年和過去兩年，你們都預計入住率會下降，而且情況可能會變得更糟。事實上，市場表現良好，您的業績表現良好，入住率也表現出色，一切都表現良好。

Yes, we hear your comments about just normal caution, hey, it's the third year in a row. But still, what -- is it just normal EastGroup caution that's caused me to think occupancy could drop 100 bps? Or are you actually seeing pushback of client -- of tenants or potential for credit issues or trouble backfilling space, longer downtime, et cetera, that's leading you to the occupancy drop?

是的，我們聽到您關於正常謹慎的評論，嘿，這是連續第三年了。但問題是，這只是 EastGroup 的正常謹慎態度導致我認為入住率可能會下降 100 個基點嗎？或者您確實看到了客戶（租戶）的抵製或潛在的信用問題或回填空間的麻煩、更長的停機時間等等，這導致您的入住率下降？

Good question, and I'll -- Staci, jump in. I'll say it's really more return to the norm. The last 2 years, given our 40-year history, we've had our record occupancy in the -- tied at 98% in the last 2 years. So there's no major known move-outs. There's no major identified bad debt or anything that's -- any specific space that's keeping us up at night. Its more things have been really good for a few years. I think at the beginning of the year, especially, are they going to keep on this path? And then especially now with higher interest rates, global unease, that it feels like things could rotate back to the normal a little more.

好問題，我會 - Staci，插話。我會說這確實更回歸常態。考慮到我們 40 年的歷史，過去 2 年我們的入住率創下了歷史記錄，過去 2 年的入住率都達到 98%。所以沒有重大的已知的遷出。沒有發現重大壞帳或任何讓我們徹夜難眠的特定空間。幾年來它的更多東西真的很好。我認為，特別是在今年年初，他們會繼續走這條路嗎？然後，尤其是現在，隨著利率上升、全球不安，感覺事情可能會恢復正常一點。

And then I think the other thing that affects us on our same-store, because people are -- this is unique to EastGroup, a little more deliberate right now, understandably in growing their businesses, about 1/3 at one point of our development leasing was to our existing tenants. And so we still have that, especially Florida and Texas, where our developments are leasing up to customers. And what we were seeing in the budget where before we may have 60 days of downtime, now it's 4 months of -- look, we'll try to minimize it. That's our goal as best we can, but we underwrote a little more vacant -- downtime before when that tenant goes to a phase or Building 6 in a park, for us to re-lease Building 2, will probably take us a couple of more months.

然後我認為影響我們同店的另一件事是，因為人們——這是EastGroup 所獨有的，現在更加謹慎，在發展他們的業務方面是可以理解的，在我們發展的某個階段大約有1 /3租賃給我們現有的租戶。所以我們仍然有這種情況，尤其是佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州，我們的開發項目正在出租給客戶。我們在預算中看到，以前我們可能有 60 天的停機時間，現在是 4 個月——看，我們會盡力將其最小化。這是我們盡最大努力的目標，但我們承保了更多的空置——當租戶進入某個階段或公園內的6 號樓之前，我們要重新租賃2 號樓，這可能會花費我們更多的時間幾個月。

So that hits our occupancy, and it especially hits our same store. But we view it someone's going to -- if one of our tenants needs to grow, someone's going to accommodate that growth. And that's why we like the parts. And that's part of our initial sales pitch when they come in, is we can always tailor your space for you up or down, moving you within a park.

所以這影響了我們的入住率，尤其是我們同一家店。但我們認為有人會——如果我們的一個租戶需要成長，有人會適應這種成長。這就是我們喜歡這些零件的原因。這是我們在他們進來時最初的銷售宣傳的一部分，我們總是可以為您量身定制上下空間，讓您在公園內移動。

And so that's still happening, and as one broker described it, that was a good way with rents being higher and the lease commitments being higher in dollars, it's moved from a real estate manager decision to a CFO decision at so many of these companies. And so people are being slower and maybe deliberate because of the environment. And again, kind of like acquisitions, except on the flip side, and I may be tying too much to interest rate moves. I think when interest rates do come down, there'll be a little bit of a lag effect, but that's when I'm hoping that pent-up demand will take off, that our retention rates are higher.

因此，這種情況仍然在發生，正如一位經紀人所描述的那樣，這是一個好方法，租金更高，租賃承諾以美元計算更高，它從房地產經理的決策轉變為許多此類公司的財務長的決策。因此，由於環境的原因，人們變得越來越慢，甚至可能是故意的。再說一次，有點像收購，除了另一方面，我可能與利率變動聯繫過多。我認為當利率確實下降時，會有一點滯後效應，但那時我希望被壓抑的需求會起飛，我們的保留率會更高。

And a lot of tenants have renewed, really across the country if you look at some of the stats, but I think people will move back to growth. And what I get excited about is there's been no starts. And if we can keep our balance sheet safe and we have the right land, we'll be able to pick up our development pipeline faster than our private peers will.

如果你看一些統計數據，很多租戶已經續約，實際上在全國範圍內，但我認為人們將恢復成長。讓我興奮的是還沒開始。如果我們能夠保持資產負債表的安全並且擁有合適的土地，我們將能夠比私人同行更快地啟動開發項目。

Your next question comes from Todd Thomas of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

First, can you talk about the leasing activity that's embedded in guidance within the lease-up portfolio? You have a few conversions scheduled for 1Q and 2Q, about 1.4 million square feet in total that's scheduled to transition to the operating portfolio during the year. What's budgeted and guidance in terms of leasing? And can you just talk about your confidence around getting those buttoned up ahead of the conversion date?

首先，您能談談租賃組合指南中包含的租賃活動嗎？您計劃在第一季和第二季進行一些轉換，總計約 140 萬平方英尺，並計劃在年內轉換為營運投資組合。租賃方面的預算和指導是什麼？您能否談談您對在轉換日期之前解決這些問題的信心？

Yes. Todd, if I'm following you, I think what we would say of our -- kind of looking at our 2024 transfers, we're -- today, as we sit, we're about 60% leased on those. Feel good about the activity. I'd say leasing activity was a little bit slow, and the brokers would probably tell me it's because of holidays. It felt slow in terms of people out kicking tires late last year. It feels like things have picked up or they have in the last 30, 45 days.

是的。托德，如果我聽你的，我想我們會說我們的 - 看看我們 2024 年的轉會，我們 - 今天，當我們坐下來時，我們大約有 60% 是租用的。對活動感覺良好。我想說租賃活動有點慢，經紀人可能會告訴我這是因為假期。去年年底人們踢輪胎的速度感覺很慢。感覺事情好像在過去 30、45 天內有所改善。

So we're -- we have activity. We need to convert that into signed leases. Of the transfers this year, the majority of it is the back half of the year. So we still have some -- look, we've got -- that's really our task this year. We've got that budgeted, leasing up kind of pieces here. And then if we're fortunate, like you saw one there's one of the Orlando projects, we were able to get that leased this quarter, and all of a sudden it jumps from a 2025 stabilization to 2024. So that one will move up the ladder.

所以我們——我們有活動。我們需要將其轉換為已簽署的租約。今年的轉會，大部分是在下半年進行的。所以我們還有一些——看，我們已經——這確實是我們今年的任務。我們已經有了預算，可以在這裡租賃一些東西。然後，如果我們幸運的話，就像您看到的奧蘭多項目之一，我們能夠在本季度租用該項目，突然之間，它從 2025 年的穩定躍升至 2024 年。梯子。

The other maybe upside to our budget, if I daydream about it, is we get some leasing done on some of the ones that are projected to stabilize next year, just stabilize early. And that's the other thing that will lead to more starts because we like having that available inventory within our parks, especially, to kind of keep moving through.

如果我做白日夢的話，我們的預算的另一個好處可能是我們對一些預計明年會穩定下來的項目進行了一些租賃，只是提前穩定下來。這是另一件事，將導致更多的開始，因為我們喜歡在我們的公園內擁有可用的庫存，特別是，可以繼續通過。

And so we've got a -- pro rata amount. I think the back half of the year is our portfolio, we think occupancy will probably -- it usually does dips a little bit through, call it, June, and then it builds towards the back half of the year. And that's probably where the economy will go too. I think as supply dwindles and, hopefully, confidence picks up, that's where I think the back half of our year will be better than the first half of the year. Not that the first half will be bad, I think it'll just be better.

所以我們有一個按比例的金額。我認為下半年是我們的投資組合，我們認為入住率可能會——它通常會略有下降，稱之為六月，然後它會在下半年增加。這也可能是經濟發展的方向。我認為，隨著供應減少，並且希望信心回升，我認為今年下半年會比上半年更好。並不是說上半場會很糟糕，我認為上半場會更好。

Okay. And then you mentioned that activity picked up, I guess, in the last 30, 45 days. We've heard similar commentary on other calls this quarter. Just curious if you can characterize demand and touring activity today relative to pre-pandemic levels, 2019, for example. How would you sort of compare and contrast?

好的。然後你提到，我猜，在過去 30、45 天裡，活動增加。我們在本季的其他電話會議上聽到了類似的評論。只是好奇您是否可以相對於大流行前的水平（例如 2019 年）來描述當今的需求和旅遊活動。你會如何比較和對比？

Probably very similar to pre-pandemic, other than the lease -- as I mentioned earlier, the lease commitment is greater. And so the description I've heard from one of the tenants, I have more approvals to get, their brokers, like it takes more approvals to get this done, which adds time.

可能與大流行前非常相似，除了租賃之外——正如我之前提到的，租賃承諾更大。因此，我從一位租戶那裡聽到的描述是，我需要獲得更多批准，他們的經紀人，就像需要更多批准才能完成這件事，這會增加時間。

There's activity, I'll say, maybe post-pandemic, and I think that's maybe what happened in Southern California, people had a fear of losing out on space. And so there was -- there was a tenant rep broker told me my job is not fun anymore because, as soon as I leave, there's 2 or 3 other people looking at this space. I would say tenants don't have a sense of urgency right now that they had maybe in late '21 and into early '22. But they're out there and they're looking at it.

我想說，可能是在大流行後，我認為這可能是南加州發生的事情，人們擔心失去太空。於是，一位租戶代表經紀人告訴我，我的工作已經不再有趣了，因為我一離開，就會有另外兩三個人在看這個空間。我想說，租戶現在沒有緊迫感，他們可能在 21 年底和 22 年初就有了這種緊迫感。但他們就在那裡並且正在關注它。

And I think people, one of the charts we were looking at in terms of renewals, the last several years, about 1 in every 4 square feet has been a renewal. And then over the last year, it's moved to 1. What I'll say there's pent-up demand about 1 in every 3 square feet. So renewals have jumped up from, call it, 25% to 1/3 of the leasing activity. And I think it -- my amateur analysis of that is that people are probably being patient and waiting to see what happens, whether it's interest rates or global unease or an election year, but once they feel like it's safe to come back in the water, I think the gate will be open.

我認為人們，我們在過去幾年中查看的更新圖表之一，大約每 4 平方英尺就有 1 平方英尺進行了更新。然後在去年，這個數字變成了 1。我想說的是，每 3 平方英尺就有 1 平方英尺的需求被壓抑。因此，續租量已從租賃活動的 25% 躍升至 1/3。我認為——我對此的業餘分析是，人們可能正在耐心等待，看看會發生什麼，無論是利率、全球不安還是選舉年，但一旦他們覺得可以安全地回到水里了，我想大門會打開的。

And that's where I hope we have a head start, either in maybe 2 ways, pushing rents within our portfolio or we've got the land and we'll try to have the -- our goal is to have the permit in hand, and the balance sheet, too, whether it's through the forward or the ATM, to really move several quarters ahead of our private peers, which is really who we compete an awful lot with on our size buildings rather than the bigger groups have more capital they've got to put out. So they lean towards the big box development rather than our $15 million buildings.

這就是我希望我們有一個領先的地方，要么通過兩種方式，在我們的投資組合中推高租金，要么我們已經擁有土地，我們將努力獲得——我們的目標是獲得許可證，並且資產負債表也​​是一樣，無論是透過遠期還是透過ATM，真正比我們的私人同行領先幾個季度，這確實是我們在規模建築上與他們競爭的對象，而不是更大的集團擁有更多的資本。必須把它拿出來。因此，他們傾向於大型盒子開發項目，而不是我們耗資 1500 萬美元的建築。

Your next question comes from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的比爾克勞。

Marshall and Staci, and I'll say good morning to Brent as well. He should be asleep, but I'm sure he's listening. Marshall, just a follow-up question on the guidance on occupancy. I'm just wondering if fourth quarter occupancy was boosted at all by any seasonal demand that you saw.

馬歇爾和史塔西，我也會向布倫特說早安。他應該睡著了，但我確信他在聽。馬歇爾，我只是關於入住指南的後續問題。我只是想知道第四季度的入住率是否因您所看到的季節性需求而增加。

Bill, not really. I mean we kind of -- it was within our budget, and actually we came out ahead of our budget. Usually, at the end of the year, what we've probably talked about before, is the Post Office or someone like that will take space on a 90-day basis. But I can't really say, I don't think we had any of that this year. It was really just a pickup in demand and, thankfully, our occupancy picked back up. And we've kind of said that's -- if it helps, kind of our goal is, if we can hang on to our occupancy until all this supply gets absorbed, because there's nothing coming in the pipeline behind it, that will be a really good time to play offense.

比爾，不是真的。我的意思是，我們的預算在我們的預算之內，而且實際上我們的預算超出了我們的預算。通常，在年底，我們之前可能會討論過，郵局或類似的機構將佔用 90 天的空間。但我真的不能說，我認為今年我們沒有做到這一點。這其實只是需求的增加，幸運的是，我們的入住率又回升了。我們說過，如果有幫助的話，我們的目標是，如果我們能夠堅持住，直到所有這些供應都被吸收，因為後面沒有任何東西進來，那將是一個真正的進攻的好時機。

So it was -- thankfully, it wasn't seasonal. I mean, I do think our occupancy may drift down like it typically does in the first quarter. It may not be 98-plus, but at least through February, we're pretty much in the same ZIP code as where we ended the year. It's still -- it's not like there's been any big movements. I'm sure it's 20 or 30 basis points one way or the other, but it's not much movement.

幸運的是，這不是季節性的。我的意思是，我確實認為我們的入住率可能會像第一季通常那樣下降。也許不是 98 歲以上，但至少到了 2 月份，我們的郵遞區號基本上與年底的郵遞區號相同。依然是——好像沒有什麼大的動靜。我確信無論哪種方式都會有 20 或 30 個基點，但變動不大。

All right. And the second area of guidance I want to challenge you on a little bit is on the equity issuance assumption. I guess I'm more embed than others about where it's coming from, which bucket it's coming from. But maybe, Staci, it would be helpful if you gave us sources and uses. It just feels like you're leaning so heavily and maybe unnecessarily so on the equity portion of funding this year.

好的。我想向您提出一點挑戰的第二個指導領域是股票發行假設。我想我比其他人更了解它來自哪裡、來自哪個桶子。但斯塔西，如果您向我們提供來源和用途，也許會有幫助。感覺今年你非常依賴資金的股權部分，也許是不必要的。

We'll certainly monitor the debt markets as well. We -- just as we were putting the building lots together for '24 guidance, at the time, it just seems more prudent and to make more sense at a lower cost of capital for us to issue equity. We can certainly easily shift that to debt if rates come down or if, for whatever reason, the equity markets were to get away from us.

我們當然也會監控債務市場。我們——正如我們當時正在為 24 世紀指引而準備的那樣，發行股票似乎更謹慎，並且以更低的資本成本更有意義。如果利率下降，或者無論出於何種原因，股市離開我們，我們當然可以輕鬆地將其轉變為債務。

We have $170 million in debt maturing later in the year. So that's use and we'll need to fund for those repayments. And then for our development starts and acquisitions that we have included in guidance, we just felt, given the cost of capital when we evaluate the options, equity is the lower cost of capital and seems to make the most sense today. But we could easily see where that shifts. And if the total stayed $465 million, maybe $150 million could shift to debt, but that's just not an assumption that we wanted to build in given the current cost of that equity versus debt.

我們有 1.7 億美元的債務將於今年稍後到期。這就是使用，我們需要為這些還款提供資金。然後，對於我們納入指導的開發啟動和收購，我們只是覺得，在評估選項時考慮到資本成本，股權是較低的資本成本，並且在今天似乎最有意義。但我們很容易看出情況已經改變了。如果總額保持在 4.65 億美元，也許 1.5 億美元可能會轉為債務，但考慮到當前股權與債務的成本，這並不是我們想要建立的假設。

At this point, you're assuming that the overall debt outstanding goes down by $170 million this year. Is that fair?

此時，您假設今年的未償債務總額減少了 1.7 億美元。這樣公平嗎？

Yes. Yes. That's fair. With the maturities that we have in August and December. That's correct.

是的。是的。這還算公平。我們在八月和十二月到期。這是正確的。

It's not we're trying to -- we like our balance sheet today, Bill, if it helps. It's not that we're trying to strengthen it so much, as Staci said. It's just -- I don't remember many of any time in my career where our cost of equity has been materially lower than our cost of short-term debt. But I think as that does evolve, it will -- and it will shift back to kind of assume the historic norm that we'll have a balance sheet in a position where we'll have a fair amount of debt capacity and still have a very safe balance sheet.

這不是我們想要的——比爾，我們喜歡今天的資產負債表，如果它有幫助的話。並不是像史塔西所說的那樣，我們試圖加強它。只是——我不記得在我的職業生涯中，我們的股本成本有多少次大幅低於短期債務成本。但我認為，隨著這種情況的發展，它將會轉變為歷史常態，即我們的資產負債表將具有相當數量的債務能力，並且仍然具有非常安全的資產負債表。

Your next question comes from Samir Khanal of Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Samir Khanal。

Marshall, can you provide a bit more color on California? When I looked at the page where you provided the market breakdown, looking at San Francisco, NOI growth slowed considerably. And then, I guess, just expand on kind of what you're seeing in Southern California as well, in L.A. and San Diego.

馬歇爾，你能提供更多關於加州的資訊嗎？當我查看您提供市場細分的頁面時，請看看舊金山，NOI 成長大幅放緩。然後，我想，只是擴展一下你在南加州、洛杉磯和聖地牙哥所看到的情況。

Sure. Samir, I would say San Francisco, we've had -- and we've got -- we had some vacancy there. We had a value add we bought, that's now 100% leased. But it took us a little bit longer than we had hoped to get that -- it's a 60,000 foot vacancy, to get that put to bed. And then in the Tulloch portfolio, there was a 3PL that left. We've got about half of that space leased now and activity on the balance. But that's -- is really vacant. That's what impacted our same-store or pulled our growth down and occupancy down in San Francisco.

當然。薩米爾，我想說舊金山，我們已經——而且我們已經——那裡有一些空缺。我們買了一間增值房，現在已 100% 出租。但我們花了比預期更長的時間才得到這個——這是一個 60,000 英尺的空缺，才把它放到床上。然後，在 Tulloch 的投資組合中，有一家 3PL 離開了。我們現在已經租用了大約一半的空間，其餘的都在進行活動。但這確實是空的。這就是影響我們同店或拉低我們在舊金山的成長和入住率的原因。

It has -- both of those markets, maybe a little bit more San Francisco and L.A., they've been great historically. And those are markets where you watch and it certainly had a lot of layoffs in technology in the Bay Area. It feels like it's stabilized. We're not really in the city. What we read is this, kind of reading through it, the city stats are not great. We're in East Bay and in the North Shore, North Bay market. Those have been a little more stable.

這兩個市場，也許更多的是舊金山和洛杉磯，它們在歷史上一直都很棒。這些都是你關注的市場，灣區的技術領域肯定有大量裁員。感覺已經穩定下來了。我們實際上並不在城市裡。我們讀到的是這樣的，通讀一遍，城市統計並不好。我們在東灣和北岸、北灣市場。這些已經比較穩定了。

And then in L.A., it feels there, especially as you get into the Inland Empire, and we're not in the Inland Empire East. We have some in the Inland Empire West and some in South Bay, which is the ports and mid-counties markets. That it was so red hot, it really got out almost like you get out over your skis. And then a lot of the 3PLs have given space back and rents have come backwards. They ran up, they more than doubled. And now they're retreating a little bit and kind of finding stability, we think, in those markets.

然後在洛杉磯，感覺就在那裡，尤其是當你進入內陸帝國時，而我們並不在內陸帝國東部。我們在內陸帝國西部有一些，在南灣有一些，那裡是港口和縣中部市場。它是如此的熾熱，它真的就像你從滑雪板上出去一樣。然後很多 3PL 都給了空間，租金也有所回落。他們跑了起來，增加了一倍以上。我們認為，現在他們正在一些撤退，並在這些市場中找到了穩定性。

Thankfully, we've been full, and we've really -- it's been more hearing and reading about L.A. than really impacting our portfolio. We have a couple of spaces turning this year in L.A., not a lot. But for us, it's about 6% of our NOI that we'll address. But that market, if you said which ones that we're in feel like they've had the most instability, it's that one. But it's probably because we've -- I -- it as we look at our own thing, it's something that takes off like a rocket, usually lands about as gracefully as a rocket. So it was one of the hottest markets.

值得慶幸的是，我們已經吃飽了，而且我們真的——更多地聽到和閱讀有關洛杉磯的信息，而不是真正影響我們的投資組合。今年我們在洛杉磯有幾個空間轉向，但不是很多。但對我們來說，我們要解決的 NOI 約為 6%。但如果你說我們所處的市場是最不穩定的，那就是那個市場。但這可能是因為我們——我——當我們看待我們自己的東西時，它像火箭一樣起飛，通常也像火箭一樣優雅地著陸。所以它是最熱門的市場之一。

And that's why we like diversity in geography and we like diversity in our tenant base, too. Look, we enjoy the run-up, but it makes you a little nervous when things turn, there's no -- we can go to Florida, right, and buildings or lease and do things like that.

這就是為什麼我們喜歡地理位置的多樣性，我們也喜歡租戶基礎的多樣性。聽著，我們很享受這種助跑，但是當事情發生轉變時，這會讓你有點緊張，沒有——我們可以去佛羅裡達，對吧，還有建築物或租賃，做類似的事情。

San Diego has been stable throughout. We like San Diego a lot. That's been the most stable of the 3 markets. We'd love to find the next value creation opportunity there. In the Bay Area, we just need to get the space leased. But I'll admit, it's taken a little bit longer than I historically would have thought, that those markets maybe have gone, I don't know, I've talk to one of our peers, who were saying they've gone from good to great maybe -- or great to good, in those markets.

聖地牙哥自始至終都很穩定。我們非常喜歡聖地牙哥。這是三個市場中最穩定的。我們很樂意在那裡找到下一個價值創造機會。在灣區，我們只需要租用空間。但我承認，這些市場可能已經消失的時間比我歷史上想像的要長一點，我不知道，我和我們的一位同行交談過，他們說他們已經從在這些市場上，也許是從優秀到卓越，或從優秀到優秀。

Got it. And then I guess just a second question on maybe development starts. I mean you did talk about supply coming down, right, in the second half, which is similar to what your peers have stated. So I mean could we see you ramp up your development starts? I mean, how are you thinking about that?

知道了。然後我想第二個問題可能是開發開始了。我的意思是，您確實談到下半年供應量下降，這與您的同行所說的類似。所以我的意思是，我們可以看到您加快開發速度嗎？我的意思是，你對此有何看法？

Yes, I hope so. And if it's helpful, maybe 2 slides I'll mention. Here's what the danger. I wish it was a Zoom call rather than a call. On Page 10 of -- if you go to our kind of Investor Relations, our slide deck, starts. So people can look. And that's all sizes. But that will show you kind of how fast they've come down the last year plus now. And I expect first quarter to look similar to fourth quarter last year. It won't be much of a pickup. So there's -- when people do come back, the shelves of the store are going to be pretty empty.

是的，我也希望如此。如果有幫助，我可能會提到兩張投影片。這就是危險所在。我希望這是 Zoom 通話，而不是電話。如果您造訪我們的投資者關係，我們的投影片將在第 10 頁開始。所以人們可以看看。這就是所有尺寸。但這會告訴你去年和現在他們下降的速度有多快。我預計第一季的情況與去年第四季相似。不會有太大的提升。所以當人們回來時，商店的貨架將會非常空。

And then on Page 12 is really the vacancy by size range. And to me, that -- these are both CBRE slides, by the way. That's pretty impactful, where you can see the supply that has not gotten absorbed over the past year, it's really in the big box space, that the shallow bay is still pretty full, and our starts have come down as much, if maybe not more, because it's less institutional.

然後第 12 頁實際上是按尺寸範圍劃分的空缺。順便說一句，對我來說，這些都是 CBRE 的幻燈片。這是相當有影響力的，你可以看到過去一年裡沒有被吸收的供應，它真的在大盒子空間裡，淺海灣仍然相當滿，我們的開工率也下降了很多，如果可能不是更多的話，因為它的製度化程度較低。

So where we've modeled our starts, and I think we're being prudent, when we see people moving deliberately, we'll go as fast or as slow as kind of the field dictates on our starts. We've modeled $300 million. We've modeled it more towards the back end of the year. That's really heavier for starts.

因此，在我們對開始進行建模的地方，我認為我們是謹慎的，當我們看到人們故意移動時，我們將根據領域對我們開始的要求而走得快或慢。我們已經模擬了 3 億美元。我們在今年年底對其進行了更多建模。對於剛開始的人來說，這真的很重。

And as Staci mentioned, that cost us about $0.05 in earnings, which isn't fun. I mean, at least they'll hit our G&A, but we think it's the right -- it's a long-term business, that's the prudent business decision. And I think -- certainly, if people feel better about the economy and want space, we'll try to get inventory on the shelves as quickly as we can. That's why we like having our long-standing relationships with the general contractors, having the permits in hand, having the GCs, everything ready to go.

正如 Staci 所提到的，這讓我們損失了大約 0.05 美元的收入，這並不有趣。我的意思是，至少他們會影響我們的一般管理費用，但我們認為這是正確的——這是一項長期業務，這是審慎的商業決策。我認為，當然，如果人們對經濟感覺更好並且想要空間，我們會盡力盡快將庫存上架。這就是為什麼我們喜歡與總承包商建立長期合作關係，擁有許可證，擁有 GC，一切準備就緒。

And I like about industrial compared to some other product types, that we can deliver it pretty quickly. And certainly in this environment, because I think there'll be a lag effect for supply to catch up for demand by several quarters, and that's where I hope that should be a good -- we need to capitalize on it, but that should be a really good opportunity for our company.

與其他一些產品類型相比，我喜歡工業產品，因為我們可以很快地交付它。當然，在這種環境下，因為我認為供應要趕上需求會出現幾個季度的滯後效應，這就是我希望這應該是一件好事——我們需要利用它，但這應該是對我們公司來說真是一個很好的機會。

Your next question comes from Vincent Tibone of Green Street.

您的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Vincent Tibone。

I'd like to keep the dialogue going on just the broader supply landscape. So just within your markets, what percentage of new supply do you estimate to be light industrial and competitive with your portfolio? And then also, are there any markets where you're concerned about overbuilding and potentially market rent declines for your type of building in the near term?

我希望就更廣泛的供應領域繼續進行對話。那麼，就您的市場而言，您估計新供應中輕工業的比例是多少，並且與您的產品組合具有競爭力？另外，您是否擔心某些市場的過度建設以及您的建築類型在短期內可能出現的市場租金下降？

Yes. Vince, we typically -- we'll say, and I don't think that was any aberration, 10% to 15% of supply is competitive supply. Because although we get questions of can they break up a big box for more shallow bay, really the dimensions, and it almost helps if we had an architect plan in front of us, those spaces get awfully long, awfully narrow and awfully expensive for those landlords. So the loading -- the runs for the forklifts get awfully long, the loading, you get 2 doors rather than 10 doors, dock-loading doors and things like that. So 10% to 15%.

是的。 Vince，我們通常會說，我不認為這有什麼異常，10% 到 15% 的供應是競爭性供應。因為雖然我們有人問他們能否把一個大盒子拆成更淺的海灣，但實際上是尺寸，如果我們面前有一個建築師計劃，這幾乎會有所幫助，但這些空間對於那些人來說變得非常長、非常窄、非常昂貴。房東們。因此，裝載時——堆高機的運行時間變得非常長，裝載時，你會得到 2 個門而不是 10 個門、碼頭裝載門等等。所以10%到15%。

And the markets where we're watching, besides L.A. that I mentioned earlier, that we're watching supply the most, would be Austin and Phoenix. That there's a little bit of supply. We've got good sites there. And that's maybe where we've pulled back on starts and inputs welcome. I've kind of said, in case I'm wrong, it's me, that I'd rather be 1 quarter to 2 late than 1 quarter to 2 early. So we're going to try to let some of the supply that's out there clear the market. And then I think there'll be calm, and again, will take us months to a year to deliver.

除了我之前提到的洛杉磯之外，我們關注的供應最多的市場是奧斯汀和鳳凰城。就是有一點供應。我們在那裡有很好的網站。這也許就是我們減少啟動和歡迎投入的地方。我說過，萬一我錯了，那是我，我寧願遲到 1 點 2 點，也不願早到 1 點 2 點。因此，我們將嘗試讓部分供應出清市場。然後我認為市場會平靜下來，但我們需要幾個月到一年的時間才能交付。

So it's not -- we're not putting the space on the shelves today. But when do we pull the trigger. We've got sites that are really like long term in both markets. But we've said, let's be a little bit -- I never want the team in the field to feel pressure from corporate to have a start, to let's be patient and watch it, and we're watching it closely. And as the inventory gets absorbed, how fast do we go?

所以，我們今天不會把這個空間放在貨架上。但我們什麼時候扣下板機呢？我們的網站在兩個市場上都具有真正的長期價值。但我們已經說過，讓我們稍微一點——我不想讓該領域的團隊感受到來自公司的壓力，讓我們開始，讓我們耐心等待，我們正在密切關注。隨著庫存被吸收，我們的速度有多快？

I've not seen rents come backwards in any market, other than L.A. right now. That's the only one I'm aware of that I'd say where I've seen rents actually turn, and especially turn in our product type because the vacancy is, thankfully, less -- a lower rate than in the big box.

目前，除了洛杉磯之外，我還沒有看到任何市場的租金下降。這是我所知道的唯一一個我會說我看到租金實際變化的地方，尤其是我們產品類型的變化，因為幸運的是，空置率更少——比大盒子裡的空置率更低。

That's all really helpful color. Appreciate that. I just have one quick follow-up on the same-store guide. Are you able to provide cash releasing spreads that are assumed within '24 guidance?

這都是非常有用的顏色。感謝。我只是對同店指南進行了快速跟進。您能否提供 '24 指南中假設的現金釋放利差？

We really have not. One, because we haven't been all that accurate, I have not disclosed that. I think last year, maybe 2 parts to same-store. Thankfully, our same-store occupancy, and this is in our supplement, was 98.4%. So I think it will be a good number. We've budgeted 97%. So a good number. It's just coming off what I think is a record. And I would expect re-leasing spreads. I think the rent growth will moderate this year. I think it'll still be positive, but will moderate.

我們真的沒有。第一，因為我們沒有那麼準確，所以我沒有透露這一點。我想去年，也許同一家店有 2 部分。值得慶幸的是，我們的同店入住率為 98.4%（這在我們的補充中）。所以我認為這將是一個不錯的數字。我們已經預算了 97%。所以這是一個很好的數字。這只是我認為的記錄。我預計轉租價差。我認為今年租金成長將會放緩。我認為它仍然是積極的，但會有所緩和。

But I think with our embedded growth, I would expect our re-leasing spreads to be similar. They actually, on a GAAP basis, got better. Each quarter was better last year for us. I don't see that trend changing materially this year. And so the cash re-leasing should follow -- or will follow that as well. And that's, without saying a number, that's probably pretty much what we've modeled, maybe a hair below it, just in case it does moderate some.

但我認為，隨著我們的內在成長，我預期我們的再租賃利差會相似。事實上，按照公認會計原則（GAAP）計算，他們變得更好了。去年每個季度對我們來說都更好。我認為今年這種趨勢不會有重大變化。因此，現金重新租賃應該隨之而來——或者也將隨之而來。不用說具體數字，這可能是我們所建模的，也許比它低一點，以防萬一它確實緩和了一些。

Your next question comes from Ki Bin Kim of Truist.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Ki Bin Kim。

Congratulations, Staci.

恭喜，史塔西。

Thank you, Ki Bin.

謝謝你，基彬。

So Marshall, just wanted to go back to some of the comments you made. I mean, you guys have an excellent balance sheet and significant financial flexibility. And like you mentioned that your cost of equity is lower than your cost of debt. Going back historically, EastGroup has -- I don't think has ever been known to do very large-scale M&A or portfolio deals. But given that the situation is a little bit different for you guys, does that change your thinking at all on larger-scale portfolio deals? Or is it more of a philosophical thing where, when you buy portfolio, you end up having to sell a decent chunk, so maybe that's not as attractive?

馬歇爾只想回顧您發表的一些評論。我的意思是，你們擁有出色的資產負債表和顯著的財務彈性。正如您所提到的，您的股本成本低於債務成本。回顧歷史，我認為 EastGroup 從來沒有進行過大規模的併購或投資組合交易。但考慮到你們的情況有點不同，這會改變你們對大規模投資組合交易的想法嗎？或者這更像是一個哲學問題，當你購買投資組合時，你最終不得不出售相當大的一部分，所以也許這不那麼有吸引力？

Yes. Ki Bin, you're right. That's I think, one, we don't want to make reckless moves, but I'd like to think, look, we did buy the San Francisco portfolio, and that was a unique situation. We're just about everything -- 90-plus percent of the NOI was what we wanted.

是的。基彬，你說得對。我認為，第一，我們不想做出魯莽的舉動，但我想，我們確實購買了舊金山的投資組合，這是一個獨特的情況。我們幾乎擁有一切——90% 以上的 NOI 都是我們想要的。

It's usually twofold. We -- either we don't like enough of the portfolio to make kind of the net cost when you think of the cost of selling those assets, that you don't want and things like that. Or probably I'm being modest, and the real reason we don't -- is we usually just get clobbered by somebody bigger that's willing to underwrite higher rent growth and a lower levered IRR and things like that. So usually, we just -- we ask the homecoming queen out a lot and we don't get a yes.

通常是雙重的。當你考慮出售那些你不想要的資產以及類似的事情的成本時，我們要么不喜歡足夠的投資組合來計算淨成本。也許我很謙虛，而我們不這樣做的真正原因是，我們通常會被更大的人打敗，他們願意承擔更高的租金增長和更低的槓桿內部收益率以及類似的事情。所以通常情況下，我們只是——我們經常約返校節女王出去，但沒有得到同意。

So we -- look, I'd love to find, if we can find opportunities to grow the portfolio smartly, we're all about it. Usually, portfolios draw more attention and you get more people bidding on them, to a certain scale where it becomes maybe only ProLogis and Blackstone or Link. But outside of that, you usually end up with a lot of competition and we don't win those bids. But if we found one that lined up, like we did in the Bay Area, we're willing to roll up our sleeves and try to make it work at a number that works for, what we think, for our shareholders.

所以我們——看，我很想發現，如果我們能找到明智地擴大投資組合的機會，我們就會全力以赴。通常，投資組合會吸引更多的注意力，並且會有更多的人競標它們，達到一定規模後可能只剩下普洛斯和黑石或Link。但除此之外，通常會面臨很多競爭，而我們卻無法贏得這些投標。但如果我們發現一個像我們在灣區那樣排隊的人，我們願意捲起袖子，努力讓它以一個我們認為對我們的股東有利的數字發揮作用。

Do you think portfolio deals have a discount today? And approximately, what does that look like?

您認為今天的投資組合交易有折扣嗎？大約，那是什麼樣子的？

I don't -- they probably have a discount to where they were. Remember, the broker is saying, if you put things together in a portfolio, they're actually worth more. It's hard because we've done better finding one-off kind of unique situations buying. When I look at -- not every 1 of the 6 we bought in call it the last 6 months, but the majority of them, there was something unusual about it, and it was a timing situation, or something where we've -- I think we've gotten better value than the market really at that moment in time in most all of those.

我不知道——他們可能比原來有折扣。請記住，經紀人說，如果你把東西放在一個投資組合中，它們實際上價值更高。這很難，因為我們在尋找一次性的獨特購買情境方面做得更好。當我觀察時——並非我們購買的 6 台中的每一款都稱之為過去 6 個月，但其中大多數都存在一些不尋常的地方，這是一個時間情況，或者是我們已經——我認為我們在大多數方面都獲得了比當時市場更好的價值。

So I still think -- and where we bid on portfolios, there was one in -- I'd say, Georgia, it was Atlanta. There was one in Texas fairly recently, were a handful of buildings where we did not make it to the second round. And so I still -- I don't think the premiums may be what it was, but there's still a premium or just there's one on the market now, and it's a large portfolio. But even then, and I'm sure they take an offer on all of it, they've broken it into about 5 different buckets that you can bid on.

所以我仍然認為——我們對投資組合進行投標的地方，有一個——我想說，喬治亞州，那就是亞特蘭大。最近在德克薩斯州有一些建築，我們沒有進入第二輪。所以我仍然 - 我認為溢價可能不會像以前那樣，但仍然有溢價，或者現在市場上有一個，而且這是一個很大的投資組合。但即便如此，我確信他們會接受所有報價，他們已將其分成大約 5 個不同的部分供您出價。

So usually, people say, we'll take an offer on all of it or any parts of it. But kind of human nature, their preference is probably still to bundle it and get as much of it out the door to one buyer. So we will certainly -- look, I like your thoughts and we've got the balance sheet today. Thankfully, we want to be mindful of that. But if we can find a portfolio acquisition, I'd love to say, well, you'll be the first to know about it, we'll have it. It's just historically, we like 2/3 of it or 3/4 and we don't like the other part, and then we got to sell it and you have the transaction cost and your effective yield goes down with all of that. Or we like it, but there's 10 people in line that are willing to take on more risk than we feel it's worth at that moment in time.

人們說，通常我們會接受全部或部分的報價。但出於人性，他們可能仍然傾向於將其捆綁在一起，然後將盡可能多的東西送給一個買家。所以我們肯定會——聽著，我喜歡你的想法，我們今天就得到了資產負債表。值得慶幸的是，我們希望注意到這一點。但如果我們能找到投資組合收購，我想說，好吧，你將是第一個知道它的人，我們會得到它。從歷史上看，我們喜歡其中的 2/3 或 3/4，但我們不喜歡另一部分，然後我們必須出售它，你就有交易成本，你的有效收益率也會隨之下降。或者我們喜歡它，但有 10 個人願意承擔比我們當時認為值得的更多的風險。

Your next question comes from Michael Carroll of RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的麥可卡羅爾。

Marshall, I just wanted to circle back on your comments regarding development. So for EastGroup to kind of be more aggressive pursuing new development starts, do you need to lease up your projects in lease-up right now or in process? Or do you need to see the broader competitive set see some leasing?

馬歇爾，我只是想回顧一下您對發展的評論。因此，為了讓 EastGroup 更積極地追求新的開發項目，您是否需要立即出租或正在出租您的項目？或者您需要看到更廣泛的競爭群體看到一些租賃？

Michael, yes. Yes, I don't mean to give a short answer, but a little bit of both. I mean I think in Austin and Phoenix, as I mentioned, we're watching the competition on the ground. And there, especially in Phoenix, we're full and we don't have a development underway. But we said, let's feel clear a little bit before we jump in the middle of it.

邁克爾，是的。是的，我並不是想給出一個簡短的答案，而是兩者兼具。我的意思是，正如我所提到的，我認為在奧斯汀和菲尼克斯，我們正在現場觀看比賽。在那裡，特別是在鳳凰城，我們已經滿了，而且還沒有進行任何開發。但我們說過，在我們跳入其中之前，讓我們先弄清楚一點。

Typically, it is -- but it's also our existing product. And the way it would work would be we're in Phase 3 of a park. If roles reverse, Staci and I will call you and say, "Hey, Michael, we're 50% leased, I've got another lease out. I've got 3 proposals out. I'm going to run out of the inventory." And the tenant rep brokers want to see that visibility that when they promise their customers it's going to be delivered. So that's why we build spec. And so we'll get out ahead of that and started putting more inventory out there.

通常情況下，它是——但它也是我們現有的產品。其運作方式是我們處於公園的第三階段。如果角色互換，史塔西和我會打電話給你說：「嘿，邁克爾，我們已經租出了50% 的租約，我還有另一份租約。我已經提出了3 份提案。我的租約即將用完。”存貨。”租戶代表經紀人希望看到這樣的可見性：當他們向客戶承諾時，他們就會兌現承諾。這就是我們建構規範的原因。因此，我們將提前行動並開始投入更多庫存。

And that's really, to me, I like our model. It's reactive to the market, and it makes it really easier for me. Look, we know a Phase 3 isn't leasing up, kind of in your question, building Phase 4 doesn't solve our vacancy issue. And Phase 3 is going really rapidly, we'll try to get to Phase 4 as quickly as we can, and then try to buy the land adjacent to or around that park as close as we can, because we know we've got a proven product, and it really becomes a manufacturing process of just putting similar buildings up, and hopefully, then you get a critical mass of tenants, more than you want to know, and then we're really helping our customers grow and moving them within the park.

對我來說，這確實是我喜歡我們的模式。它對市場做出反應，這對我來說真的更容易。聽著，我們知道第三期並沒有出租，在你的問題中，建設第四期並不能解決我們的空置問題。第三階段進展得非常快，我們將盡力盡快進入第四階段，然後嘗試盡可能靠近該公園購買鄰近或周圍的土地，因為我們知道我們已經有了一個經過驗證的產品，它真的變成了建造類似建築物的製造過程，希望你能獲得足夠的租戶，比你想知道的還要多，然後我們真正幫助我們的客戶發展並將他們搬入其中公園。

So that's really reactive to calls. But every once in a while, like right now, we'll say, even though we're full in Austin and we're full in Phoenix, there's a lot of people that are out there with space on the ground that we'd like to see that clear a little bit before we jump into those markets.

所以這對呼叫確實有反應。但每隔一段時間，就像現在，我們會說，即使我們在奧斯汀和菲尼克斯都已滿員，但仍有很多人在地面上有空間，我們需要在我們進入這些市場之前，希望先弄清楚這一點。

And look, if I picked 2 of our fastest-growing markets in our portfolio, if those aren't the 2, they're right there at it of historically top 5 growth cities in the country. So I think that inventory will get absorbed pretty quickly in those markets. And then we don't need to be the third developer. We may not be the first developer to follow too early, but I don't want to be the third one either.

看，如果我在我們的投資組合中選擇兩個成長最快的市場，如果這不是這兩個，那麼它們就位於該國歷史上成長最快的 5 個城市中。因此，我認為這些市場的庫存將很快被吸收。然後我們就不需要成為第三個開發者。我們可能不是第一個過早跟進的開發人員，但我也不想成為第三個。

Okay. And those projects that you're kind of mentioning that you want to get leased up in the broader market, are those I guess, shallow bay properties that are directly competitive yours? Or are they more outside the market, kind of the larger buildings that might not directly compete with you?

好的。您提到的那些您想在更廣泛的市場上出租的項目，我猜那些是與您直接競爭的淺灣物業嗎？或者它們更遠離市場，是一種可能不會與您直接競爭的大型建築？

Yes. No, good -- if it's big box that's vacant, that really doesn't -- it may as well be a hotel. That really doesn't affect our thinking. In those markets, there's a decent amount of shallow bay that's out there that's either delivered or being delivered enough to kind of tell us like, look, maybe the right long-term decision, let's wait 1 quarter or 2, and there's really not much downside to being patient.

是的。不，很好——如果這是一個空著的大盒子，那真的不是——它也可能是一家酒店。這確實不影響我們的思考。在這些市場中，有相當數量的淺灣，要么已經交付，要么已經交付到足以告訴我們，看，也許是正確的長期決定，讓我們等一兩個季度，而且真的沒有太多。缺點是要有耐心。

Hopefully, we get actually -- hopefully there's a reward for being patient and seeing how things play out. Then, hey, we bought this land, we've got to go just because we put it on a sheet of paper that we said we're going to break ground this quarter. So that's kind of how we're looking at it. We'll monitor it. And hopefully, it picks up during the year. As soon as that starts to clear we'll get moving fairly quickly on those.

希望我們能真正得到——希望耐心等待並觀察事情如何發展會得到回報。然後，嘿，我們買了這塊土地，我們必須離開，因為我們把它寫在一張紙上，我們說我們將在本季度破土動工。這就是我們的看法。我們會監控它。希望它能在今年有所回升。一旦情況開始明朗，我們很快就會採取行動。

Okay. And then just last one for me, like what are you doing all the predevelopment work on your projects? I mean how quickly once you decide to go vertical can you have it completed and delivered?

好的。最後一個問題是，你的專案的所有預開發工作都在做什麼？我的意思是，一旦你決定垂直發展，你能多快完成並交付它？

It got -- it used to be 6 months was kind of our answer. During COVID, it got as long as a year. It's probably back to 9 to 10 months. Electrical equipment, construction costs have come down from the peak, maybe 10% to 15%, thankfully. And right now, we're -- I guess maybe it's the push towards green energy, getting the electrical equipment, transformer, switchgear, all the things like that, we'll order it, but that's still about a year lead time. So the supply chain is better, but it's not perfect.

我們的答案是──過去是 6 個月。新冠疫情期間，長達一年之久。可能會回到9到10個月。值得慶幸的是，電氣設備、建築成本已經從高峰期下降了，可能下降了 10% 到 15%。現在，我們——我想也許是為了推動綠色能源，獲得電氣設備、變壓器、開關設備，所有類似的東西，我們會訂購，但這仍然需要大約一年的準備時間。所以供應鏈比較好，但不完美。

Your next question comes from Jason Belcher of Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑森貝爾徹。

Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about any pockets of strength or weakness you're seeing across your different tenant industries, whether or not there are any groups that might be more aggressive than others in taking space or if others have maybe decreased requirements more abruptly than others?

只是想知道您是否可以談談您在不同租戶行業中看到的任何優勢或劣勢，是否有任何群體在佔用空間方面可能比其他群體更積極，或者其他群體是否可能降低了要求比其他人更突然？

Sure. Food and beverage is kind of one that's picked up off-late. Construction, a little bit, which is odd, but maybe it's the government projects and things like that, homebuilding, maybe some of that. So we've seen some construction, some food and beverage. And then if it -- and as I mentioned earlier, I think things hopefully turn later, the first type tenancy that -- usually the first in either direction are the third-party logistics firms. So we're still seeing activity from them. And I think when things turn, I think they'll be the first ones out there picking up contracts and gobbling up space.

當然。食品和飲料是一種遲到的食品和飲料。建築，有點奇怪，但也許是政府項目和類似的事情，住宅建設，也許是其中的一些。我們看到了一些建築、一些食物和飲料。然後，如果它——正如我之前提到的，我認為事情有望在以後發生轉變，第一種類型的租賃——通常在任一方向上第一個是第三方物流公司。所以我們仍然看到他們的活動。我認為當事情發生轉變時，我認為他們將是第一批獲得合約併吞噬空間的人。

But those that -- we've seen kind of a lot more green energy within our portfolio, and maybe because it was we had so little. But someone storing batteries, distributing batteries, working some kind of conversion, or energy related has been a new pocket of demand. And I think food and beverage. Also within kind of medical. We've seen a pickup in medical. As an aside, one, we have a number of tenants that basically it's an industrial building, but a pharmacy, where you order prescriptions or medical products online. And so we've seen a pickup of that -- a couple of them relocations from California to the Dallas market, for example, that we picked up.

但是，我們在我們的投資組合中看到了更多的綠色能源，也許是因為我們的綠色能源太少了。但儲存電池、分配電池、進行某種轉換或與能源相關的人已經成為新的需求領域。我認為食品和飲料。也屬於醫療範疇。我們看到醫療領域有所回升。順便說一句，我們有許多租戶，基本上是一座工業建築，但也是一家藥房，您可以在那裡在線訂購處方或醫療產品。因此，我們看到了這種情況的回升——例如，我們發現其中一些從加州搬遷到達拉斯市場。

That's helpful. And then secondly, can you just talk a little bit about your contractual rent increases or rent bumps and what you all are incorporating into newly signed leases there and whether you're getting any pushback on that aspect of the lease agreement? And then if you can also just remind us where your average escalator is across the portfolio.

這很有幫助。其次，您能否談談您的合約租金上漲或租金上漲，以及您們在新簽署的租約中納入的內容，以及您在租賃協議的這方面是否受到任何阻力？然後您是否也可以提醒我們您的平均自動扶梯在整個投資組合中的位置。

We've definitely seen that increase, say where a couple of years ago we would have been working up toward an average of 3%, now our portfolio average would be in the 3s. And on new leases that we're signing, we're seeing those 3.5% to 4%. In some cases, it's been above that. But I would say the norm has been in the 3.5% to 4% range. So definitely still seeing strength there. We have not seen any pullback from that recently. So continue -- and our expectations would be for that to continue, in the 3.5% to 4% range for new leases that we're signing.

我們確實看到了這種成長，比如說幾年前我們的平均成長率是 3%，而現在我們的投資組合平均成長率將達到 3%。在我們簽署的新租約中，我們看到了 3.5% 到 4% 的比例。在某些情況下，它已經高於此。但我想說，標準是在 3.5% 到 4% 的範圍內。所以肯定仍然看到那裡的實力。我們最近沒有看到任何回調。所以繼續吧——我們的預期是這種情況能夠繼續下去，對於我們正在簽署的新租約來說，稅率會在 3.5% 到 4% 的範圍內。

Your next question comes from Ronald Kamdem of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆。

Two quick ones for me. Just going back sort of the rent growth commentary for the portfolio. I think you said positive. But was curious if you can give a little bit more color around there. And maybe also by market. I think L.A. may be slow. But curious sort of when you go through the markets, what are the ones that are sort of on the higher end, on the lower end? That would be helpful.

對我來說兩個快點。只是回顧一下投資組合的租金成長評論。我認為你說的是積極的。但我很好奇你是否可以給周圍多一點顏色。也許也按市場。我認為洛杉磯可能會很慢。但令人好奇的是，當你瀏覽市場時，哪些是高端市場，哪些是低階市場？那會有幫助的。

Okay. Ron, I think our expectations market rent growth, and not our re-leasing spreads, but market rent growth, probably inflationary, maybe a hair above for the market. I think for our product type, I would add 100 to 200 basis points just because the vacancy rate tradition is lower. So maybe you get to -- that may get you to mid-single digits.

好的。羅恩，我認為我們的預期是市場租金成長，而不是我們的再租賃價差，而是市場租金成長，可能會通膨，可能比市場高一點點。我認為對於我們的產品類型，我會增加100到200個基點，只是因為空置率傳統較低。所以也許你會達到——這可能會讓你達到中個位數。

And I think it will pick up. I think it will be better in '25 and into '26 with supply/demand, mainly because demand is falling off so much. Our better markets or the Florida markets have been strong. I'd say that Central Florida, Miami, those markets, Las Vegas has been a strong market as well. I know I mentioned Phoenix with oversupply, but that was at 1 of those 2 were our best embedded growth rent markets last year. Atlanta is still a good market.

我認為它會回升。我認為 25 年和 26 年的供需情況會更好，主要是因為需求大幅下降。我們更好的市場或佛羅裡達市場一直很強勁。我想說佛羅裡達州中部、邁阿密、拉斯維加斯這些市場也是一個強勁的市場。我知道我提到過鳳凰城供應過剩，但那是去年我們最好的嵌入式成長租金市場之一。亞特蘭大仍然是一個不錯的市場。

So thankfully -- a few years ago, we would have told you California is really driving our rent growth. And now it's really spread off throughout the portfolio. And with the falloff in supply, I think that's only going to get better over the next -- it may take 6 to 8 months, but I think it's going to be better over the next 24 months following that.

值得慶幸的是，幾年前，我們會告訴您加州確實推動了我們的租金成長。現在它確實分散到了整個產品組合中。隨著供應量的下降，我認為這種情況只會在接下來的時間內好轉——可能需要 6 到 8 個月的時間，但我認為在接下來的 24 個月內會更好。

Got it. And then just to close the thought, I think we've all sort of touched on that, the balance sheet could be pretty unlevered based on how much equity you're going to be issuing. And I guess, trying to figure out opportunistically, are you seeing anything in the acquisition market today that suggests that there may be sort of either distressed or opportunities for EastGroup to come in? Or is it still at the -- we're sort of in the wait-and-see mode? Just curious where you are in that phase.

知道了。然後，為了結束這個想法，我想我們都已經談到了這一點，根據您要發行的股本數量，資產負債表可能相當無槓桿。我想，試圖從機會主義角度弄清楚，您是否在今天的收購市場上看到了任何跡象表明 EastGroup 可能存在某種困境或機會進入？或者我們仍然處於觀望狀態？只是好奇你處於那個階段的哪個階段。

Maybe not broad brush distress. I mean we're not seeing banks or things, although you read about banks still needing to reduce commercial real estate exposure and that industrial will get pulled into that bucket. And they're not distressed, but we have seen instances. One of the properties we bought, the seller had not owned it all that very long at all, and they -- supposedly they sold it at a loss. But they needed liquidity within their portfolio, and what they were able to sell, what we were told about the brokers, was the industrial, versus it's hard to sell office or maybe some other product types.

或許不是寬泛的苦惱。我的意思是，我們沒有看到銀行或其他東西，儘管你讀到銀行仍然需要減少商業房地產敞口，而工業房地產將被納入這一範圍。他們並不感到痛苦，但我們已經看到了這樣的例子。我們購買的其中一處房產，賣方擁有它的時間並不長，而且他們——據說他們虧本出售了它。但他們的投資組合需要流動性，他們能夠出售的東西，我們被告知經紀人的東西，是工業品，而很難出售辦公室或其他一些產品類型。

So I don't know if I'd call it distress, or people in a capital buying where a group had tied up a vacant building, gotten it leased, and then they were having difficulty sourcing their capital, and we were able to let them make a little bit of money, but we stepped into their position and assumed the contract and still got what we thought was a very attractive yield on the property.

所以我不知道我是否會稱之為困境，或者資本購買中的人們，一群人捆綁了一棟空置的建築物，將其出租，然後他們在尋找資金時遇到了困難，而我們能夠讓他們賺了一點錢，但我們進入了他們的位置並承擔了合同，並且仍然獲得了我們認為非常有吸引力的房產收益。

So yes, I guess it's a little bit distressed, but I don't know that it's -- I guess I'm kind of trying to -- without violating our confidentiality agreements on some of those, describe them a little bit where it's a capital squeeze, and whether it may not be an entity level to stress, it's a developer who's having trouble meeting the closing date or someone needs to sell something. And our pitch is we're -- we may not be your highest bid, but we're your surest path to the closing table.

所以，是的，我想這有點苦惱，但我不知道——我想我有點試圖——在不違反我們對其中一些協議的保密協議的情況下，描述一下它們的位置資本緊縮，無論這不是實體層面的壓力，還是開發商在交割日期前遇到困難，或者有人需要出售某些東西。我們的宣傳是—我們可能不是您的最高出價，但我們是您進入收盤桌的最可靠途徑。

Right. Okay. So maybe not distressed, maybe just motivated or something. All right.

正確的。好的。所以也許不是苦惱，也許只是有動力什麼的。好的。

Yes. I like your adjective. Thank you.

是的。我喜歡你的形容詞。謝謝。

Your next question comes from Vikram Malhotra of Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vikram Malhotra。

This is Georgi on for Vikram. Just 2 quick ones from me. When you model credit risk, is it a placeholder? Or is it a segment where you anticipate a sector issue? And my second question would be if you can provide any color on broadening of demand from nearshoring.

這是維克拉姆的喬治。我只有 2 個快速的。當您對信用風險進行建模時，它是一個佔位符嗎？或者您預計該細分市場會出現行業問題？我的第二個問題是，您是否可以提供有關近岸外包需求擴大的任何資訊。

Sure. On the credit, tenant credit, and the bad debt that we have included in our guidance, our actual bad debt in '23 was $1.5 million, which represented about 27 basis points in terms of percentage of revenue. And for '24, we have $2 million baked into the guidance, which is about 32 basis points of revenue. And that's really just what an anticipated, I guess, level. If we look back at our 10-year average, our bad debt has run up 20 basis points of revenue. So last year was a bit higher, but we don't really have any reason to believe that there would be a major change from last year.

當然。根據我們納入指導的信貸、租戶信貸和壞賬，我們 23 年的實際壞帳為 150 萬美元，佔收入百分比約 27 個基點。對於 24 年，我們在指導中納入了 200 萬美元，相當於收入的 32 個基點。我想這確實是一個預期的水平。如果我們回顧 10 年的平均水平，我們的壞帳已經增加了收入的 20 個基點。所以去年有點高，但我們沒有任何理由相信去年會出現重大變化。

Just with the growth of the company, the number grows just a bit. And given some uncertainty in the economy, even though we haven't really felt negative impacts, it just seemed reasonable for us to include $2 million in our bad debt guidance. But we don't have any bad debts identified and really have not seen any particular tenant industry or any particular market where we can detect a trend in any credit deterioration.

隨著公司的發展，這個數字只是一點點成長。考慮到經濟的一些不確定性，儘管我們並沒有真正感受到負面影響，但我們將 200 萬美元納入壞帳指導似乎是合理的。但我們沒有發現任何壞賬，也沒有看到任何特定的租戶產業或任何特定的市場，我們可以發現任何信用惡化的趨勢。

It's just been each one has a story, but nothing too significant. And if we look at our watch list of tenants that we have a reserve for, out of about 1,600 leases, we're in the 15% to 20% range on number of tenants that we have on our watch list where we might have a reserve. So still a very small percentage of total overall and no trends that we've been able to detect and no overall deterioration.

只是每個人都有一個故事，但沒有什麼太重要的。如果我們查看我們保留的租戶觀察名單，在大約 1,600 個租約中，我們的觀察名單上的租戶數量可能處於 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，其中我們可能有預訂。因此，佔總數的比例仍然很小，我們沒有發現任何趨勢，也沒有整體惡化。

And then on nearshoring, what we like about it, it feels like a slow, steady long-term build rather than a rush, which may be more temporary. But we've seen El Paso has been a strong market now for 3 years, and we've been there 20%, but the best 3 years in the last 3. Phoenix is a strong market on its own, and Tucson, but they've both been solid markets for us. And a little bit -- El Paso is a border market more so where Phoenix and San Diego were their own markets that also benefit from onshoring, nearshoring.

然後，就近岸外包而言，我們喜歡的一點是，它感覺像是一種緩慢、穩定的長期建設，而不是匆忙，後者可能更為暫時。但我們已經看到埃爾帕索已經成為一個強勁的市場3 年了，我們已經達到了20%，但是過去3 年中最好的3 年。菲尼克斯本身就是一個強勁的市場，圖森也是，但他們對我們來說都是穩固的市場。還有一點——埃爾帕索是一個邊境市場，鳳凰城和聖地牙哥是自己的市場，也受惠於在岸、近岸外包。

So we're seeing more certainly manufacturing in the southern half of the U.S., whether it's green energy, that type related, and then we're seeing more nearshoring. I think those are certainly long-term decisions that companies make, but it's, whether it's a labor strike in L.A. or the Suez Canal, I have to think all that just volatility will push people -- look, the border is open every day, the ports have their own challenges and benefits in any given quarter. It seems to fluctuate, at least just -- we're not a port-related portfolio, but you see the issues those have.

因此，我們更確定地看到美國南半部的製造業，無論是綠色能源還是相關類型，然後我們看到更多的近岸外包。我認為這些肯定是公司做出的長期決定，但是，無論是洛杉磯的勞工罷工還是蘇伊士運河，我必須認為所有這些波動都會推動人們——看，邊境每天都開放，這些港口在任何特定季度都有自己的挑戰和好處。它似乎在波動，至少只是——我們不是與港口相關的投資組合，但你看到了這些問題。

And I would have to think it pushes manufacturers to, if they can make the numbers work, go to Juarez, go to Tijuana, go to Nogales, Mexico, and just cross the border. And that's where we -- I like that we're not totally dependent on the border in Phoenix and San Diego, but that we all -- that's one more benefit besides growth that those cities offer.

我不得不認為，如果製造商能夠使數字發揮作用，這會促使製造商前往華雷斯、蒂華納、墨西哥諾加利斯，然後越過邊境。這就是我們——我喜歡我們並不完全依賴鳳凰城和聖地牙哥的邊界，而是我們所有人——這是這些城市提供的除了成長之外的另一個好處。

There are no further questions at this time. I would hand over the call to Marshall Loeb for closing comments. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉交給馬歇爾·勒布 (Marshall Loeb) 以徵求結束意見。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you, everyone, for your time today. I know, if we didn't get your question, Staci and I or Brent too, he's back in the office are certainly available, feel free to e-mail us, call us if there's anything we didn't get to. We'll hopefully see you all here in a few weeks at our upcoming conference. But I appreciate your time, and I hope to speak to you all soon. Take care.

好的。謝謝大家今天抽出時間。我知道，如果我們沒有收到你的問題，史塔西和我或布倫特也一樣，他回到辦公室肯定有空，請隨時給我們發電子郵件，如果有什麼我們沒有聯繫到的，請打電話給我們。希望幾週後我們能在即將舉行的會議上見到大家。但我很感謝您抽出時間，我希望很快能與大家交談。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。