Eastgroup Properties Inc (EGP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the EastGroup Properties Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 EastGroup Properties 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Marshall Loeb, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給總裁兼首席執行官馬歇爾·勒布 (Marshall Loeb)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for calling in for our second quarter 2023 conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest. Brent Wood, our CFO, is also on the call. And since we'll make forward-looking statements, we ask that you listen to the following disclaimer.

早上好，感謝您撥通我們的 2023 年第二季度電話會議。一如既往，我們感謝您的關注。我們的首席財務官布倫特·伍德 (Brent Wood) 也參加了電話會議。由於我們將做出前瞻性陳述，因此我們要求您聽取以下免責聲明。

Please note that our conference call today will contain financial measures such as PNOI and FFO that are non-GAAP measures as defined in Regulation G. Please refer to our most recent financial supplement and to our earnings press release, both available on the Investor page of our website and to our periodic reports furnished or filed with the SEC for definitions and further information regarding our use of these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of them to our GAAP results.

請注意，我們今天的電話會議將包含PNOI 和FFO 等財務指標，這些指標是G 條例中定義的非GAAP 指標。請參閱我們最新的財務補充資料和收益新聞稿，兩者均可在投資者頁面上找到。我們的網站以及我們向 SEC 提供或提交的定期報告，了解有關我們使用這些非 GAAP 財務指標以及將其與我們的 GAAP 結果進行核對的定義和進一步信息。

Please also note that some statements during this call are forward-looking statements as defined in and within the safe harbors under the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements in the earnings press release, along with our remarks, are made as of today and reflect our current views about the company's plans, intentions, expectations, strategies and prospects based on the information currently available to the company and on assumptions it has made.

另請注意，本次電話會議中的一些陳述屬於《1933 年證券法》、《1934 年證券交易法》和《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》安全港中定義的前瞻性陳述。本財報新聞稿以及我們的言論是截至今天發布的，反映了我們根據公司目前掌握的信息及其所做的假設對公司的計劃、意圖、預期、戰略和前景的當前看法。

We undertake no duty to update such statements or remarks, whether as a result of new information, future or actual events or otherwise. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please see our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K for more detail about these risks.

我們不承擔更新此類聲明或言論的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來或實際事件還是其他原因。此類陳述涉及已知和未知的風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果存在重大差異的因素。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告，了解有關這些風險的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Keena. Good morning. I'll start by thanking our team for a strong first half of the year. They continue performing at a high level and capitalizing on opportunities in a fluid environment.

謝謝，基娜。早上好。首先，我要感謝我們的團隊今年上半年的強勁表現。他們繼續保持高水平表現，並在瞬息萬變的環境中抓住機會。

Our second quarter results were strong and demonstrate the quality of our portfolio and the continued resiliency of the industrial market. Some of the results produced include funds from operations coming in above guidance, up 11% for the quarter and 10% year-to-date. For over 10 years now, our quarterly FFO per share has exceeded the FFO per share reported in the same quarter prior year, truly a long-term growth trend.

我們第二季度的業績強勁，證明了我們投資組合的質量和工業市場的持續彈性。所產生的部分業績包括來自運營的資金超出預期，本季度增長 11%，年初至今增長 10%。十多年來，我們的季度每股 FFO 已經超過了去年同期報告的每股 FFO，這確實是一個長期增長趨勢。

Quarterly occupancy averaged 98.1%, which was consistent with second quarter of 2022, and quarter end occupancy of 98.2% is up 30 basis points from March 31. The quarterly re-leasing spreads reached a record at approximately 53% GAAP and 38% cash, with these results pushing year-to-date spreads to 51% GAAP and 35% cash. Cash same-store NOI came in up 6.4% for the quarter and 8.7% year-to-date.

季度平均入住率為98.1%，與2022 年第二季度一致，季度末入住率為98.2%，較3 月31 日上升30 個基點。季度再租賃利差達到創紀錄的約53% GAAP 和38%現金，這些業績推動年初至今的利差達到 51% GAAP 和 35% 現金。現金同店 NOI 本季度增長 6.4%，年初至今增長 8.7%。

And finally, I'm happy to finish the quarter with FFO rising to $1.91 per share. Helping us achieve these results is thankfully having the most diversified rent roll in our sector, with our top 10 tenants falling to 8.3% of rents, down 50 basis points from second quarter of 2022 and in more locations.

最後，我很高興本季度末 FFO 上漲至每股 1.91 美元。值得慶幸的是，幫助我們實現這些成果的是我們行業中最多元化的租金清單，我們的十大租戶的租金下降至8.3%，比2022 年第二季度下降了50 個基點，而且在更多地點。

In summary, I'm proud of our start of the year. Statistically, it's one of the best quarters on record, all with continued recession concerns. We're responding to strengthen the market and user demand for industrial product by focusing on value creation via raising rents and new development. This market strength is what allowed us to end the quarter 98.5% leased, average over 98% occupied and continue pushing rents through a wider and wider geography.

總而言之，我對今年的開局感到自豪。從統計數據來看，這是有記錄以來最好的季度之一，但經濟衰退的擔憂依然存在。我們致力於通過提高租金和新開發來創造價值，以增強市場和用戶對工業產品的需求。這種市場優勢使我們能夠在本季度末實現 98.5% 的出租率，平均超過 98% 的入住率，並繼續在更廣泛的地區推高租金。

As we've stated before, our development starts are pulled by market demands within our park. Based on our read through, we're forecasting 2023 starts up $360 million. And while our developments continue leasing up, we're closely watching demand with the goal of a balanced fluid response pending what the economy allows. What's promising to see is the decrease in industrial starts primarily due to capital market volatility and credit tightening. Starts have fallen 3 consecutive quarters with second quarter 2023 being almost 50% lower than third quarter 2022. Assuming reasonably steady demand, then turning into 2024, the markets will tighten, allowing us to continue pushing rents and create earlier development opportunities.

正如我們之前所說，我們的開發項目是由園區內的市場需求拉動的。根據我們的通讀，我們預測 2023 年啟動資金將達到 3.6 億美元。在我們的開發項目繼續出租的同時，我們正在密切關注需求，目標是在經濟允許的情況下實現平衡的流動反應。值得期待的是，工業開工率下降主要是由於資本市場波動和信貸緊縮造成的。開工率連續三個季度下降，2023 年第二季度比2022 年第三季度下降近50%。假設需求相當穩定，然後進入2024 年，市場將收緊，使我們能夠繼續推高租金並創造早期開發機會。

Given the capital market volatility, we've taken a measured approach towards transactions since mid '22. That said, when we find the right strategic opportunities, we pursue them. We're seeing these windows mainly on the development side and being strategically opportunistic on core investment opportunities.

鑑於資本市場的波動，我們自 22 年中期以來對交易採取了謹慎的態度。也就是說，當我們找到合適的戰略機會時，我們就會抓住它們。我們看到這些窗口主要是在發展方面，並對核心投資機會進行戰略機會主義。

Brent will now speak to several topics, including assumptions within our updated 2023 guidance.

布倫特現在將談論幾個主題，包括我們更新的 2023 年指南中的假設。

Good morning. Our second quarter results reflect the terrific execution of our team, strong overall performance of our portfolio and the continued success of our time-tested strategy. FFO per share for the quarter exceeded the upper end of our guidance range at $1.91 per share compared to $1.72 for the same quarter last year. $0.02 of second quarter FFO was attributable to an involuntary conversion gain, recognized as the result of roof replacements that were damaged in a hurricane. Excluding the gain, FFO per share was at the upper of our guidance range at $1.89 per share, an increase of 10% over the same quarter last year. The outperformance continues to be driven by stellar operating portfolio results and the success of our development program.

早上好。我們第二季度的業績反映了我們團隊的出色執行力、我們投資組合的強勁整體表現以及我們經過時間考驗的策略的持續成功。本季度 FFO 每股超出了我們指導範圍的上限，為每股 1.91 美元，而去年同期為 1.72 美元。第二季度 FFO 的 0.02 美元歸因於非自願轉換收益，該收益是由於更換在颶風中損壞的屋頂而確認的。剔除收益後，每股 FFO 處於我們指導範圍的上限，為每股 1.89 美元，比去年同期增長 10%。出色的業績繼續受到出色的運營組合業績和我們開發計劃的成功的推動。

From a capital perspective, the strengthening in our stock price continued to provide the opportunity to access the equity markets. During the quarter, we sold shares for gross proceeds of $165 million at an average price of $169.72 per share. During this period of elevated interest rates, equity proceeds remain our most attractive capital source. In our updated guidance for the year, we increased our stock issuances assumption from $180 million to $475 million, $300 million which is complete, and removed any unsecured debt assumption.

從資本角度來看，股價的走強繼續為我們提供了進入股市的機會。本季度，我們以每股 169.72 美元的平均價格出售股票，總收益為 1.65 億美元。在利率上升的時期，股票收益仍然是我們最具吸引力的資本來源。在我們更新的今年指引中，我們將股票發行假設從 1.8 億美元增加到 4.75 億美元，其中 3 億美元已經完成，並取消了任何無擔保債務假設。

As a reminder, the company does not have any variable rate debt other than the revolver facilities, and our near-term maturity schedule is light with only $50 million scheduled to mature through July 2024. Although capital markets are fluid, our balance sheet remains flexible and strong with healthy financial metrics. Our debt to total market capitalization was 18%, unadjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio was down to 4.4x, and our interest and fixed charge coverage ratio increased to 7.8x.

提醒一下，除了循環貸款設施外，該公司沒有任何可變利率債務，而且我們的近期到期時間表很輕，計劃在2024 年7 月之前到期的只有5,000 萬美元。儘管資本市場是流動的，但我們的資產負債表仍然靈活並擁有健康的財務指標。我們的債務佔總市值的比例為 18%，未經調整的債務與 EBITDA 比率降至 4.4 倍，利息和固定費用覆蓋率升至 7.8 倍。

Looking forward, FFO guidance for the third quarter of 2023 is estimated to be in the range $1.87 to $1.93 per share and $7.58 to $7.68 for the year, an $0.08 per share increase over our prior guidance. Those midpoints represent increases of 7.3% and 9% compared to the prior year, respectively.

展望未來，FFO 2023 年第三季度的指導預計為每股 1.87 至 1.93 美元，全年為 7.58 至 7.68 美元，比我們之前的指導每股增加 0.08 美元。與上一年相比，這些中點分別增長了 7.3% 和 9%。

Revised guidance produces a same-store growth midpoint of 7.3% for the year, an increase of 30 basis points from last quarter's guidance. We also increased the midpoint of our average occupancy by 10 basis points to 97.8%. This is the result of outperforming our budget expectations in the second quarter, along with continued optimism for the remainder of the year.

修訂後的指導意見顯示，今年同店增長中點為 7.3%，比上季度的指導意見提高了 30 個基點。我們還將平均入住率中值提高了 10 個基點，達到 97.8%。這是第二季度超出我們預算預期以及今年剩餘時間持續樂觀的結果。

In closing, we were pleased with our second quarter results and are well positioned entering the latter half of the year. As we have in both good and uncertain times in the past, we were allowing our financial strength, the experience of our team and the quality and location of our portfolio to lead us into the future.

最後，我們對第二季度的業績感到滿意，並為進入下半年做好了準備。正如我們過去經歷過的美好時期和不確定時期一樣，我們讓我們的財務實力、團隊的經驗以及我們投資組合的質量和位置引領我們走向未來。

Now Marshall will make final comments.

現在馬歇爾將做出最終評論。

Thanks, Brent. In closing, I'm proud of the results our team created. We're carrying that momentum forward. Internally, operations remain historically strong, and we're constantly working to strengthen the balance sheet. Externally, the capital markets and the overall environment remain clouded. While never fun to experience, this is leading to a marked decline in development starts. In the meantime, we're working to maintain high occupancies while pushing rents. And longer term, I remain excited for EastGroup's future.

謝謝，布倫特。最後，我為我們團隊創造的成果感到自豪。我們正在推動這一勢頭向前發展。在內部，運營仍然保持歷史強勁，我們不斷努力加強資產負債表。從外部來看，資本市場和整體環境依然陰雲密布。雖然體驗起來一點也不有趣，但這導致了開發啟動的顯著下降。與此同時，我們正在努力維持高入住率，同時推高租金。從長遠來看，我仍然對 EastGroup 的未來感到興奮。

There are several long-term positive secular trends occurring within last mile, shallow bay distribution space and Sunbelt markets that will play out over years, such as population migration, evolving logistics change, onshoring, near-shoring, et cetera, which we're well positioned for.

最後一英里、淺灣配送空間和陽光地帶市場中出現了一些長期積極的長期趨勢，這些趨勢將在未來幾年內顯現出來，例如人口遷移、不斷發展的物流變革、在岸、近岸等，我們正在研究這些趨勢。定位良好。

And we'll now open up the call for your questions.

現在我們將開始電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Craig Mailman with Citi.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Craig Mailman。

Nick Joseph here with Craig. Marshall, you touched on what's happening in the overall industrial construction market in terms of new starts coming down, obviously, from recent peaks pretty materially. How are you thinking about your own new development starts and underwriting them just given current construction costs and also what you're seeing on the demand side today?

尼克·約瑟夫和克雷格在這裡。馬歇爾，您談到了整個工業建築市場的新開工量明顯從最近的峰值大幅下降的情況。考慮到當前的建設成本以及您今天在需求方面看到的情況，您如何考慮自己的新開發項目並對其進行承保？

Thanks, Nick. We're -- a couple of different ways. One, we've pushed up our development yield, I guess, maybe internally our goal, although the numbers were there. So we're kind of high 6s to 7s usually on new starts. I've always liked our model and that the way it works is as we build out a park, it's usually the team in the field. And it's rather than corporate pushing out a starts goal for the year or updating that goal, it's really -- they will call and the conversations are typically were, hey, we're 99% leased in Dallas. And the last phase leased up, and we need to build a couple more buildings. And then oftentimes, even the benefit as we're talking to 2 or 3 of our own tenants in that submarket who need more space.

謝謝，尼克。我們有幾種不同的方式。第一，我想，我們已經提高了開發產量，這也許是我們內部的目標，儘管數字已經存在。所以我們在新的開始時通常會獲得 6 到 7 的高分。我一直很喜歡我們的模式，它的運作方式是當我們建造一個公園時，通常是現場的團隊。這並不是公司推出今年的啟動目標或更新該目標，而是——他們會打電話，談話通常是，嘿，我們在達拉斯 99% 的租金都已出租。最後一期已租完，我們需要再建造幾棟建築。通常，當我們與該子市場中需要更多空間的 2 或 3 個租戶交談時，甚至會帶來好處。

So we'll taper that new supply into the demand. And then really if one of our projects has not leased up, we won't start that next phase. So we'll wait until the market kind of fills the inventory and then restock. So that's how we're looking at it. I think a little bit and maybe where you were going with your question, what we like about this environment and what makes it a little atypical is some of the pieces they talk about, and we would agree that demand is maybe -- the world is kind of normalizing after COVID in terms of demand.

因此，我們將逐漸減少新的供應以滿足需求。事實上，如果我們的一個項目沒有出租，我們就不會開始下一階段。因此，我們會等到市場填滿庫存，然後再補貨。這就是我們的看法。我想了一下，也許你的問題是在哪裡，我們喜歡這個環境的什麼地方，以及他們談論的一些部分讓它變得有點不典型，我們同意需求可能是——世界是就需求而言，在新冠疫情之後，某種程度的正常化。

We still think it's pretty strong. It's just not frenetic like it was at one point, maybe in '21 or early '22, which felt was fun, but felt unsustainable. But what's also a really unique environment is how hard it is for merchant developers, local, regional. The people that often were building our shallow bay type products are to get capital or know what yields to build to, to then turn around and flip it, where we have the advantage where we can hold it in a growing market. So we're really seeing supply taper off. And so that's got us more encouraged about development as we look into -- really start looking into '24, assuming there's not some type of black swan economic turn. I hope that helps.

我們仍然認為它相當強大。只是不像21年或22年初那樣瘋狂，感覺很有趣，但感覺不可持續。但真正獨特的環境還在於，對於本地、區域性的商業開發商來說，這是多麼困難。那些經常建造我們淺灣型產品的人是為了獲得資金或知道建造的收益率是多少，然後轉身翻轉它，我們有優勢，可以在不斷增長的市場中持有它。所以我們確實看到供應逐漸減少。因此，當我們真正開始研究 24 世紀時，假設沒有出現某種類型的黑天鵝經濟轉變，這讓我們對發展更有信心。我希望這有幫助。

Yes, sure. Very helpful. And then just maybe on the increased cash same-store NOI guidance for the year, it implies a deceleration, obviously, in the back half of the year, but you touched on occupancy with demand you're still seeing. So can you just walk through how we get to the midpoint there, in terms of the updated guidance?

是的，當然。很有幫助。然後，也許就今年現金同店 NOI 指導的增加而言，這顯然意味著今年下半年的減速，但您提到了您仍然看到的需求的入住率。那麼，您能否根據更新後的指導說明我們如何達到中間點？

Yes, I'll jump in there, Nick. This is Brent. Yes, it really comes down to -- and we've been a little bit ahead even. We had anticipated the slower growth in same-store NOI in the second quarter. As you saw, we were down over first quarter, but raised the guide because it came in -- second quarter came in ahead of what we were projecting. But it really comes down to the slowness. It isn't really to do with rent increases, which continue to be strong, but it's more on the occupancy side. We've had the benefit from any quarters of comparing favorably to the prior year's quarter by 50, say, 130 basis points.

是的，我會跳進去，尼克。這是布倫特。是的，這確實歸結為——而且我們甚至已經領先了一點。我們預計第二季度同店NOI 增長將放緩。正如您所看到的，我們第一季度的業績有所下降，但提高了指南，因為第二季度的業績超出了我們的預期。但這確實歸結為緩慢。這實際上與持續強勁的租金上漲無關，但更多的是與入住率有關。我們從任何季度中都受益匪淺，與去年同期相比，增長了 50 個基點，比如 130 個基點。

First quarter, for example, where we had the 11% increase, we were comparing a 98.7% average occupancy to 97.4%. So we had all the rental rate growth, rent bumps plus the occupancy gain, but then you move to second quarter in our same-store compared to 98.4% to 98.4%. And so the occupancy side of that becomes flatter. And then even looking at our budget calls for a few basis points here and there pullback in occupancy and the comparison metrics for third quarter, for example, of '22 is 98.5% same-store occupancy and 98.8% for fourth quarter. And so those will be the 2 benchmarks to which we'll be comparing to.

例如，第一季度增長了 11%，我們將 98.7% 的平均入住率與 97.4% 的平均入住率進行了比較。因此，我們的租金率有所增長，租金上漲加上入住率增長，但隨後我們同店的第二季度增長率為 98.4% 至 98.4%。因此，入住率變得更加平坦。然後，即使查看我們的預算，也需要在入住率和第三季度的比較指標中出現一些基點的回調，例如，22 年的同店入住率為 98.5%，第四季度為 98.8%。因此，這些將是我們要比較的兩個基準。

So hope we do better than what we're projecting at the moment. I mean, it's not out of the realm that our occupancy could come in ahead of what we're projecting for the end of the year. But you still got a stiff comparison. So again, we're still very pleased with the other components, rental rate growth. We've had -- we've been able to accomplish higher annual rent bumps in our leases over the last few years. The guys have done a good job of leveraging the market there. But clearly, the occupancy side comparison is a bit of headwind in the overall statistic there.

因此，希望我們能做得比目前預計的更好。我的意思是，我們的入住率可能會早於我們預計的年底入住率，這並非不可能。但你仍然有一個僵硬的比較。再說一次，我們仍然對其他組成部分、租金增長感到非常滿意。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經能夠在租賃中實現更高的年租金上漲。這些人在利用那裡的市場方面做得很好。但顯然，入住率方面的比較在總體統計數據中有點不利。

But as Marshall often says, same-store is an important component, but it's just one component of many that come and formulate to our bottom line, and we've been very pleased with our bottom line FFO growth as evidenced to getting close to 9%, almost double-digit per share again. So -- we have a way of putting all our pieces together and making work to be very competitive on the bottom line.

但正如馬歇爾經常說的那樣，同店是一個重要組成部分，但它只是構成我們利潤的眾多組成部分之一，我們對我們的底線 FFO 增長感到非常滿意，事實證明，它已接近 9 %，每股幾乎再次達到兩位數。因此，我們有一種方法可以將我們所有的部分整合在一起，使工作在利潤上變得非常有競爭力。

The next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vikram Malhotra。

So maybe just first, you touched a little bit about not being concerned about the rent spread side or just, I guess, being more conservative on the occupancy. But as we look into the second half, you've definitely seen a broadening out in terms of the rental rate, rental growth strengthening and the rent spreads, pretty solid in parts of Texas and Florida. Can you just give us your updated view of how you see rent growth in the second half across some of your key markets? And does that essentially imply rent spreads will continue to widen out into the second half?

因此，也許首先，您談到了不關心租金利差方面的問題，或者我想，只是對入住率更加保守。但當我們展望下半年時，你肯定會看到租金率、租金增長加強和租金利差方面的擴大，在德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州的部分地區相當穩定。您能否向我們介紹您對一些主要市場下半年租金增長的最新看法？這是否本質上意味著下半年租金利差將繼續擴大？

Good question. We're, broadly speaking, kind of viewing rent growth this year and maybe that high-single-digits to lower-double-digits, call it, 13%, 14%. And it feels like it's tracking there. Tenants are taking longer to make decisions, but we're staying full. And you're right, one of the things, when we've gotten questions about our Southern California markets, we've still said they're strong. The difference is when you look at re-leasing spreads really over the last couple of years, Southern California is still a good market for us, but so are the other markets. The delta isn't nearly what it was 3 years ago type thing. And I don't see that changing given the supply formula and the growth, just population and business growth in markets like Texas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas. I think that embedded rent growth is there and rents continue to grow. So we feel pretty good about our rent spreads.

好問題。從廣義上講，我們預計今年的租金增長可能會從高個位數到低兩位數，稱之為 13%、14%。感覺就像它正在追踪那裡。租戶需要更長的時間才能做出決定，但我們仍然滿員。你是對的，其中一件事是，當我們收到有關南加州市場的問題時，我們仍然說它們很強勁。不同之處在於，當你看看過去幾年的轉租價差時，南加州對我們來說仍然是一個很好的市場，但其他市場也是如此。三角洲已經不再是三年前的樣子了。鑑於供應公式和增長，我認為這種情況不會發生變化，只是德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州、佐治亞州、卡羅來納州等市場的人口和商業增長。我認為內含租金增長已經存在，並且租金繼續增長。所以我們對租金利差感覺很好。

Look, we had the best quarter and best first half of the year we've had historically. So that -- in a period where we've been -- the most anticipated recession in history feels pretty good right now. And it feels like we'll stay there, and it's going to be interesting to see with -- we've not seen supply come down like this since probably the GFC or something like that. So really, it will be interesting to see how supply continues to come down. If demand can stay where it is, if I'm really an optimist, I could say there's more upward pressure on rents in '24 than there was in '23.

看，我們經歷了歷史上最好的季度和上半年。因此，在我們所處的時期，歷史上最受期待的經濟衰退現在感覺相當不錯。感覺我們會留在那裡，而且看到這一點會很有趣——自全球金融危機或類似事件以來，我們還沒有看到供應量像這樣下降過。所以說真的，看看供應如何繼續下降將會很有趣。如果需求能夠保持不變，如果我真的是一個樂觀主義者，我可以說 24 年的租金上漲壓力比 23 年更大。

And just to clarify that last comment is more specific to your submarkets in Texas, et cetera? Are you just talking more broadly?

只是為了澄清最後的評論更具體針對您在德克薩斯州的子市場等嗎？你只是說得更廣泛嗎？

Like, maybe -- I was laughing, just saying my answer is maybe yes. I think supply is coming down nationally, but I certainly like having maybe the combination of ours and the markets we're in, we're in on purpose, I like that supply is coming down nationally, and I especially like it if we can double in what I thought in some of our markets, we don't need a great economy given the growth of e-commerce, population growth, job growth, onshoring, all the things like that. We just need an okay economy, and we'll gain more than our fair market share based on what we're evolving logistics chains, things like that. But if you can mix in falling supply and growing demand, it was kind of where I got to my short answer of laughing with a yes. So thank you, I like the markets we're in, I think they'll benefit a little more than the national average.

就像，也許——我在笑，只是說我的答案也許是肯定的。我認為全國范圍內的供應量正在下降，但我當然喜歡將我們的供應量與我們所處的市場相結合，我們是故意的，我喜歡全國范圍內的供應量下降，如果我們可以的話，我特別喜歡它與我對某些市場的想法相比，考慮到電子商務的增長、人口增長、就業增長、外包等所有因素，我們不需要一個偉大的經濟。我們只需要一個良好的經濟，基於我們不斷發展的物流鍊等，我們將獲得比公平市場份額更多的份額。但如果你把供應下降和需求增長結合起來，我就得到了簡短的回答，笑著說“是”。所以謝謝你，我喜歡我們所處的市場，我認為它們的受益會比全國平均水平多一點。

Makes sense. And then just to clarify, you referenced sort of nearshoring, onshoring a couple of times, and El Paso's rent spreads were very solid. I'm just wondering any -- can you give us any more like specific anecdotal evidence that this trend is finally building. We've been talking about it for 3, 4 years since the start of COVID. Other data points suggest there's probably more activity, but I'm just wondering, are you seeing it translate into a warehouse demand?

說得通。然後澄清一下，您多次提到了近岸外包和在岸外包，埃爾帕索的租金利差非常穩定。我只是想知道——你能給我們提供更多類似具體的軼事證據來證明這一趨勢最終正在形成嗎？自新冠疫情爆發以來，我們已經談論這個問題三四年了。其他數據點表明可能有更多的活動，但我只是想知道，您是否看到它轉化為倉庫需求？

Mostly what we're -- you're right. We're seeing it within our re-leasing spreads and occupancy in our main 2 markets or maybe 2.5% to 3%, we're seeing rental rate growth in El Paso that's historically strong, where it's really kind of California-like markets where it's triple digits. And we won't go to the other side of the border, but in reading about -- or as in Tijuana, both have incredibly low vacancy rates and that will continue to drive those markets.

主要是我們——你是對的。我們在主要 2 個市場的再租賃價差和入住率中看到了這一點，或者可能是 2.5% 到 3%，我們看到埃爾帕索的租金增長歷史上強勁，那裡確實是類似加州的市場，這是三位數。我們不會去邊境的另一邊，但在閱讀中——或者像蒂華納一樣，兩者的空置率都非常低，這將繼續推動這些市場。

So El Paso feels strong. It feels like there's -- every quarter, there's a new company, there's new demand. What we like about San Diego and a good portion of our San Diego portfolio is really a submarket Otay Mesa that's right there on the border and that continues to have strong demand. Every Fortune 1000 company transport 3PL is in that Otay Mesa area. And then the other market, we're 100% leased in Arizona. So Nogales, Mexico is not quite as big a market and a little bit further away, but we still see strong demand in Arizona. So it feels like it's not a light switch, but it incrementally builds in those markets, which feels more sustainable as well.

所以埃爾帕索感覺很強大。感覺就像每個季度都會有一家新公司，有新的需求。我們喜歡聖地亞哥以及我們聖地亞哥投資組合的很大一部分實際上是位於邊境的奧泰梅薩子市場，並且需求持續強勁。每家財富 1000 強運輸 3PL 公司都位於 Otay Mesa 地區。然後是另一個市場，我們在亞利桑那州 100% 出租。因此，墨西哥的諾加利斯並不是一個很大的市場，而且距離也有點遠，但我們仍然看到亞利桑那州的需求強勁。所以感覺它不是一個電燈開關，但它是在這些市場中逐步建立的，這也感覺更可持續。

Makes sense. And then just lastly, if I can sneak one more in. Just your cost of capital, you referenced the equity you're raising, taking advantage of where you are. But also, I guess, relative cost of capital to public and private peers is pretty wide today. So I'm wondering, apart from sort of deleveraging, like you outlined or maybe better development spreads, is there anything else you're monitoring or looking to take advantage of that you have this relative cost of capital?

說得通。最後，如果我可以再偷偷說一句。就你的資本成本而言，你參考了你正在籌集的股本，利用了你所處的位置。但我認為，如今公共和私人同行的相對資本成本相當懸殊。所以我想知道，除了像您所概述的去槓桿化或更好的發展利差之外，您是否正在監控或尋求利用您擁有的相對資本成本的其他任何內容？

Maybe a little bit, and Brent jump in too. I think one interesting trend we're seeing on really -- part of it is cost of capital, but more importantly, access to capital and that's where we've seen opportunities in the market, and that's pushed us to the equity. I mean, maybe a lot of different reasons when you're not sure where the economy is going. I'd rather have a safer balance sheet than an unsafe balance sheet.

也許有一點，布倫特也加入進來。我認為我們確實看到了一個有趣的趨勢——部分是資本成本，但更重要的是獲得資本的機會，這就是我們在市場上看到的機會，這促使我們轉向股權。我的意思是，當你不確定經濟走向時，可能有很多不同的原因。我寧願擁有更安全的資產負債表，也不願擁有不安全的資產負債表。

But a lot of our peers that build what we build are local, regional developers. And we've had a number of them come to us in several markets. And hopefully, we'll -- we've closed on a couple of days, and hopefully, we'll have a few more down the road that we're evaluating, and the conversation is generally that I've had this site tied up for 2 to 3 years. It's hard to raise equity debt as more expensive would you step in and maybe we get -- we give them some promote feature or they participate on the development or some fee and really, it's shovel-ready sites that we're finding.

但我們的許多同行都是當地的區域開發商。我們已經在多個市場找到了許多這樣的客戶。希望我們會——我們已經關閉了幾天，希望我們在評估過程中還會有更多的事情，而且談話內容通常是我已經綁定了這個網站長達2至3年。籌集股本債務很困難，因為你介入的成本會更高，也許我們會得到——我們給他們一些促銷功能，或者他們參與開發或一些費用，實際上，我們正在尋找准備就緒的網站。

And so that's where -- whereas a year or 2 years ago, they would have had a line of bidders when you have a site ready. You really didn't have to break ground and you could have made probably a few million dollars spending the market. Now those developers are in a tight financial spot, I think it's going to get -- make me guessing, I think it's going to get worse before it gets better, given some of the ripple effects to commercial banks and things like that is their exposure to real estate. And so that's where we're seeing the opportunities is development sites where someone else has gotten through the zoning, the permitting, all the things that usually are measured in a year or 2 of headwind before we actually close on the site, where we're having a chance to maybe jump -- cut in line basically closer to the start of the race than have to do that leg work on the front end.

這就是一兩年前，當你準備好場地時，他們會有一長串競標者。你真的不需要破土動工，你就可以通過市場賺到幾百萬美元。現在這些開發商的財務狀況很緊張，我認為情況會變得更糟，然後才會好轉，考慮到商業銀行的一些連鎖反應以及類似的風險敞口到房地產。因此，我們看到的機會是開發地點，其他人已經通過了分區、許可，所有這些通常在我們實際關閉該地點之前需要一兩年的逆風來衡量的事情，在那裡我們’我們可能有機會跳躍——基本上在距離比賽開始更近的地方插隊，而不是在前端做腿部工作。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Nick Thillman with Baird.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Nick Thillman 和 Baird。

This is Daniel Hogan, on Nick. So looking at your development pipeline, it looks like you pushed back some conversion dates of your projects for Springwood and Stonefield, and I know those are larger buildings and only pushed back a quarter. Is that a function of longer development times or slower lease-up assumptions?

我是丹尼爾·霍根，在尼克節目中。因此，看看你們的開發計劃，看起來你們推遲了斯普林伍德和斯通菲爾德項目的一些轉換日期，我知道那些是較大的建築，只推遲了四分之一。這是開發時間較長或租賃假設較慢的結果嗎？

It's really development. Yes, the lease are -- the projects are going fine. I would say, it's 2 parts. One, weather can definitely play a factor of pending where you are, and those are early enough in construction, and it's probably a little bit of weather delay. And then overall in construction and talking to our construction team, it feels like delivery times have normalized for the most part. I'll overuse the word normalized on this call, but for electrical equipment. So the transformers, the panels, all the things that people have pushed to green energy that if you said where are we having issues within our construction, and I think it's everyone, it's the lead time on electrical is about 1 year. So it could be on those to a little bit weather related and probably a little -- I know where our construction guys, their stress level is, is getting any kind of electrical equipment and delivered. I don't think it's a pricing issue so much it's just availability.

真是發展啊。是的，租約是——項目進展順利。我想說的是，它分為兩部分。第一，天氣絕對是決定你所在位置的一個因素，而且這些建設已經足夠早了，而且可能會有點天氣延遲。然後，在整體施工過程中，並與我們的施工團隊交談，感覺交貨時間在很大程度上已經正常化。在這次通話中，我會過度使用標準化這個詞，但對於電氣設備而言。因此，變壓器、面板以及人們推動綠色能源發展的所有東西，如果你說我們的建設中哪裡存在問題，我認為是每個人，電氣的交付週期約為 1 年。因此，這可能與天氣有一點關係，可能還有一點——我知道我們的建築人員，他們的壓力水平，正在哪裡獲取和交付任何類型的電氣設備。我不認為這是一個定價問題，而只是可用性問題。

Right. And then given that you talked about seeing less shallow bay competition in the past on the supply front, have you seen any instances of mid or large box developers putting in the capital to try to break up their spaces and compete with your space? Or is it still a similar trend of...

正確的。鑑於您談到過去在供應方面看到淺灣競爭較少，您是否見過中型或大型盒子開發商投入資金試圖打破他們的空間並與您的空間競爭的例子？或者說，這仍然是類似的趨勢嗎？

I think it would -- look, you would probably -- they'll have financial pressure on where the market is to do that. I think the challenge -- and I guess I could maybe get on the margins, depending on the size box you built, our average tenant size is in the 30,000 square feet, 75% of our revenue comes from tenants under 100,000 feet. So if -- but if you and I have built say, an 800,000-foot building much less the million-plus, the dimensions of those buildings, it is such a deep building that if you try to cut it up for a 50,000 or 70,000 foot tenant, you end up with such a long but narrow space, you can't compete on dock doors and things like that. So our -- it becomes very inefficient space for the tenants because you don't have enough loading doors at the back of the space if you kind of picture cutting off the rectangle.

我認為——看，你可能會——他們會對市場這樣做面臨財務壓力。我認為挑戰 - 我想我可能會獲得利潤，具體取決於您建造的盒子的大小，我們的平均租戶面積在 30,000 平方英尺，我們 75% 的收入來自 100,000 英尺以下的租戶。所以，如果——但是如果你和我建造了一座 800,000 英尺高的建築，遠低於 100 萬多英尺，這些建築的尺寸，它是如此深的建築，如果你試圖把它切成 50,000 或 70,000腳租客，你最終會得到一個又長又窄的空間，你無法在碼頭門和類似的東西上競爭。因此，對於租戶來說，它變得非常低效，因為如果你想像一下切斷矩形的情況，空間後面沒有足夠的裝載門。

And then the other thing that would happen to you on the landlord side is you have to build a fire-rated demising walls kind of from ceiling to deck. And so that gets awfully expensive. So I think the tenant improvements wouldn't work. So that's why the big boxes, they can maybe -- they don't have to go to 1 or 2 tenants, you can maybe cut it off a little bit, but probably not in small enough piece is still that it would really compete with 120,000-foot building because the tenancy when you're having those kind of deliveries and loading and unloading, it just physically wouldn't work for you.

然後，房東方面會發生的另一件事是，您必須建造一堵從天花板到甲板的防火終止牆。所以這變得非常昂貴。所以我認為租戶的改善不會起作用。所以這就是為什麼大盒子，他們可能 - 他們不必去1或2個租戶，你也許可以把它剪掉一點，但可能還不夠小，它仍然可以真正與120,000 英尺高的建築，因為當你進行此類交付和裝卸時，租賃在物理上不適合你。

Next question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自康納·米切爾和派珀·桑德勒。

So you guys have talked a little bit about the merchant builders and regional developers having trouble access to capital and reaching up to you, guys. So I guess I'd just like to ask about maybe what do you see in the near term and maybe a little bit longer term with whether these kind of competitors maintain and stay on the sidelines for a bit longer? Or is it possible they find capital soon to be able to jump back in the mix?

所以你們已經談論了一些關於商業建築商和區域開發商難以獲得資金並與你們聯繫的問題，伙計們。因此，我想我想問一下，您在短期內或從長遠來看會看到什麼，這些競爭對手是否會維持並保持更長時間的觀望狀態？或者他們是否有可能很快找到資金，能夠重新加入其中？

Connor. Good question, I think. And let's say it's a harder one. Good question, another way to say it's a hard one to answer. I think the pro for industrial, there's a lot of capital that still would like to be in real estate. And I think industrial is attractive compared to some offices, sounds like it's incredibly hard right now, retail, where do you go multifamily is still strong. So industrial is attractive as an alternative so you can get capital there. I still think it's hard to know, and I guess we'll not learn a little more today when the Fed finishes raising interest rates, much less lowers them to know where cap rates are because so many of these developers are merchant developers, and they've been willing to build on a pretty thin. And until you really know where capital settles out, it's hard for you, me and Brent to build it and know where we can flip the building in 12 to 18 months.

康納。我認為這是個好問題。假設這是一個更難的問題。好問題，換句話說這是一個很難回答的問題。我認為工業領域的專業人士仍然有很多資本願意投資房地產。我認為與一些辦公室相比，工業是有吸引力的，聽起來現在非常困難，零售，你去哪裡多戶仍然很強大。因此，工業作為替代方案很有吸引力，因此您可以在那裡獲得資本。我仍然認為這很難知道，而且我想當美聯儲完成加息時，我們今天不會了解更多，更不用說降低利率來了解資本化率在哪裡，因為這些開發商中有很多是商業開發商，他們一直願意在相當薄的基礎上進行構建。在你真正知道資本在哪裡定居之前，你、我和布倫特都很難建造它，也很難知道我們可以在 12 到 18 個月內將這座建築翻轉到哪裡。

And I think as we've talked to the banks that we work with, it still sounds like what regulation may come out or what pressures they're going to have to reduce their commercial real estate exposure, which isn't industrial so much, but we get thrown into that bucket with every other product type. So I think loans are going to be harder to come by in the near term than the in the last couple of months. And the interest rates sure feels like it's going to be a little bit harder.

我認為，正如我們與合作銀行交談的那樣，聽起來仍然像是可能會出台哪些監管措施，或者他們將面臨哪些壓力來減少商業房地產風險敞口，而商業房地產風險敞口與工業房地產的風險程度無關，但我們和其他所有產品類型都被扔進了這個桶。因此，我認為短期內貸款將比過去幾個月更難獲得。利率確實讓人感覺會有點困難。

So I think those developers are going to be on the sidelines for a while. We're not seeing the forward sales or the land sales that we had. The demand was great in '20 and '21 kind of early '22, and maybe that's moderated, but supply has adjusted as dramatically, at least in our portfolio, much more dramatically than demand has to date. And you still got a lot of things in the pipeline, but as that empties out, there's not much coming back into that pipeline. And I don't see that changing for the next few quarters until the capital markets kind of settled down a little bit more.

所以我認為這些開發商將在一段時間內處於觀望狀態。我們沒有看到我們的遠期銷售或土地銷售。 20 世紀 20 年代和 21 世紀 22 年代初期的需求量很大，也許現在有所放緩，但供應也發生了巨大的調整，至少在我們的投資組合中，比迄今為止的需求要劇烈得多。管道中仍然有很多東西，但隨著管道清空，就沒有太多東西回到管道中。在資本市場稍微穩定下來之前，我認為這種情況在接下來的幾個季度不會發生變化。

Appreciate that. And then just a second question. Regarding the rise in the homebuilders and demand for new houses, which we haven't seen in a while, maybe even past 15 years or so before 2008. Just -- I was wondering how has the rise in the new housing demand and the homebuilders impacting the warehousing demand? Like is it showing up materially overall in the industrial market? Or can it be more attributed towards the growth in the Sunbelt and maybe some newer markets?

感謝。然後是第二個問題。關於房屋建築商和新房需求的增長，我們已經有一段時間沒有看到這種情況了，甚至可能在 2008 年之前已經有 15 年了。只是 - 我想知道新房需求和房屋建築商的增長情況如何影響倉儲需求？就像它在工業市場中整體上表現出來一樣嗎？或者是否可以更多地歸因於陽光地帶以及一些較新市場的增長？

Yes, it's a little -- a little hard to differentiate exactly, but I think we're definitely seeing it. It's not driving our business so much as it's a positive contributor. Certainly, we're reading where Florida. The population growth Florida has had, the Carolinas, Maricopa County, Phoenix, Arizona, a huge population with Austin, Texas. So we definitely have our share of whether it's Trane Air Conditioning or Home Depot, Best Buy, Lowe's, all the tenants like that and then some of the tile companies, things like that, where we're benefiting from their growth. And they've taken a couple of our developments. I can think of a couple in Fort Myers, where it was people homebuilding related appliances, things like that where we -- it's a nice benefit, but I like that our tenancy is so diversified. To me, well, I wouldn't want to get too reliant on homebuilding because it is so cyclical. But right now, it seems to be picking up. There's a shortage of homes, it sounds like, as we read about it, and it's kind of one more tailwind that we're thankful to have.

是的，這有點難以準確區分，但我認為我們肯定會看到它。與其說它是我們業務的推動力，不如說它是一個積極的貢獻者。當然，我們正在閱讀佛羅里達州的地方。佛羅里達州人口增長，卡羅萊納州、馬里科帕縣、鳳凰城、亞利桑那州、德克薩斯州奧斯汀人口眾多。因此，無論是特靈空調還是家得寶、百思買、勞氏等所有租戶，以及一些瓷磚公司等，我們肯定都有自己的份額，我們從他們的增長中受益。他們已經取得了我們的一些進展。我可以想到邁爾斯堡的一些地方，那裡有人建造與住宅相關的電器，我們在那裡——這是一個很好的好處，但我喜歡我們的租賃如此多樣化。對我來說，我不想過於依賴住宅建設，因為它具有周期性。但現在，情況似乎正在好轉。正如我們讀到的那樣，聽起來房屋短缺，這是我們慶幸擁有的又一順風。

Next question comes from Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

Great. Just big picture, Marshall, just appreciate all the comments on the different drivers of demand, and there is a lot of debate or angst over some of those drivers and I guess, where we are, let's say, in the cycle or what inning we're in per driver of demand. I guess just big picture. What are your thoughts here on the various drivers? I mean, is there still a nice balance between all of them that you would still characterize the demand for some of these drivers is still early, mid, late innings? Like how are you thinking about it?

偉大的。馬歇爾，只是大局觀，只是欣賞對不同需求驅動因素的所有評論，並且對其中一些驅動因素存在很多爭論或焦慮，我想，我們在哪個週期中，或者我們在哪一局每個需求驅動因素。我想只是大圖。您對各種驅動因素有何看法？我的意思是，他們之間是否仍然存在良好的平衡，您仍然會描述對其中一些車手的需求仍然是早、中、晚局？比如你怎麼想的？

Jeff, I like that we've got any number of drivers. I think we're still early innings and kind of picking them apart on -- it's hard to call e-commerce early innings, but I do think last mile delivery and kind of how retailers -- I think they -- as they continue to rationalize store count and things like that, I do think we're earlier innings in terms of how they door -- curbside delivery, things like that, I think there's more to go there. I think we're early innings on onshoring and near-shoring because that would strike me as a multiyear process to move a plant out of China or China Plus One manufacturing. I think it's happening, but we're early on there. And I think some of the ebb and flow like our last question on homebuilding and things like that. So I like that there's that many. And I think e-commerce is just also just the penetration, a continual drip, drip, drip versus brick-and-mortar. I don't think brick-and-mortar is going away. But I do think e-commerce every year seems to gain a little more market share just as they get better and faster and faster with their delivery.

傑夫，我喜歡我們有很多司機。我認為我們仍處於早期階段，並且在某種程度上將它們區分開來- 很難將電子商務稱為早期階段，但我確實認為最後一英里交付以及零售商- 我認為他們- 的方式，因為他們繼續合理化商店數量和類似的事情，我確實認為我們在門的方式方面處於較早的階段——路邊送貨，類似的事情，我認為還有更多的事情要做。我認為我們正處於在岸和近岸外包的早期階段，因為在我看來，這將是一個將工廠遷出中國或中國加一製造業的多年過程。我認為這正在發生，但我們還處於早期階段。我認為有些潮起潮落就像我們最後一個關於住宅建築之類的問題。所以我喜歡有這麼多。我認為電子商務也只是滲透，是相對於實體店的持續的滴水、滴水、滴水。我不認為實體店會消失。但我確實認為電子商務似乎每年都會獲得更多的市場份額，就像他們的交付變得越來越好、越來越快一樣。

So I like that there's -- to us, we're very flexible, low-cost real estate in infill locations. Our top 10 tenants are just over 8%, our revenue is 8.3%, which is actually down 50 basis points from a year ago. So I like that there's a million ways to use our buildings. And I know you all have, I would encourage any of the investors if you're out and you want to take a tour, join an analyst tour, you really get a sense for just the variety of ways people use good industrial buildings. And every few years, it seems like green energy is a new one, we'll leave lease to a number of tenants that are doing something with green energy that we wouldn't have had any 3 years ago, and now we've got 10 or 12 tenants, and there's 1 or 2 new prospects every quarter it feels like. So I like that our pie continues to widen.

所以我喜歡——對我們來說，我們在填充地點擁有非常靈活、低成本的房地產。我們的前10名租戶剛剛超過8%，我們的收入是8.3%，實際上比一年前下降了50個基點。所以我喜歡有一百萬種方式來使用我們的建築。我知道你們都有，我會鼓勵任何投資者，如果您外出並且想要參觀，參加分析師之旅，您會真正了解人們使用優質工業建築的各種方式。每隔幾年，綠色能源似乎就會成為一種新能源，我們會將租約留給一些正在使用綠色能源做一些我們三年前不會有的事情的租戶，現在我們有了10 到12 個租戶，每個季度都會有1 到2 個新的潛在客戶。所以我喜歡我們的蛋糕不斷擴大。

And as one of these tailwinds may die down or if it reaches a late inning, it feels like there's a new tailwind that we pick up the type of tenancy we hadn't seen before, but then online pharmacies were something we didn't have several years ago, and now we've got several of those as your insurance companies push you to order recurring prescriptions online rather than, say, through Duane Reade or CVS where its brick-and-mortar. And so that's a new type tenancy. So I won't -- it'll take up this whole hour of the list of tenancies, but I like that our tenant base or prospect pool continues to grow. And then in the meantime, the full supply guys and Budweiser distributor and this and that, all those tenants are still there that we've had for 20 years.

由於這些順風之一可能會消失，或者如果它到達最後一局，感覺就像有一種新的順風，我們選擇了以前從未見過的租賃類型，但在線藥店是我們沒有的東西幾年前，現在我們已經有了其中的一些，因為您的保險公司敦促您在線訂購經常性處方，而不是通過Duane Reade 或CVS 等實體店訂購。這是一種新型租賃。所以我不會——它會佔用整個小時的租賃清單，但我喜歡我們的租戶基礎或潛在客戶池繼續增長。與此同時，完整的供應商和百威經銷商以及這個那個，所有這些租戶仍然在那裡，我們已經擁有了 20 年了。

Very helpful. And then my second question, more detailed, and I'm sorry if I missed this. Did you explain the bump in the stabilized development yields? If you didn't, if you can, please?

很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，更詳細，如果我錯過了這個問題，我很抱歉。您解釋了穩定開發收益率的上升嗎？如果你沒有，請問你可以嗎？

Okay. No, I guess it's a little bit there. I'm glad we had it. It's really where rents -- we're able to get rents. It's higher than what we had pro forma. So we -- when we do the underwriting, we'll underwrite to current market rents and the construction costs we have in hand. And a lot of times, as we lease those buildings, couple of things that can help us get better yields will be, one, mainly getting rents that were a little bit higher than the market was at the time when we kind of said, okay, let's break ground and go. And then the other thing we can usually pick up on to, would be getting the building leased up faster. So our carry is a little bit less. So a combination of those, but the bigger driver would just be the market continues to rise.

好的。不，我想有一點。我很高興我們擁有它。這確實是租金的地方——我們能夠獲得租金。它比我們預計的要高。因此，當我們進行承保時，我們將承保當前的市場租金和我們手頭的建築成本。很多時候，當我們租賃這些建築物時，有幾件事可以幫助我們獲得更好的收益，第一，主要是獲得比當時市場水平稍高一點的租金，當時我們有點說，好吧，我們破土出發吧。然後我們通常可以做的另一件事是更快地出租建築物。所以我們的攜帶量就少了一些。這些因素綜合在一起，但更大的推動力將是市場繼續上漲。

And so I'm glad that the buildings that we had under lease-up picked up, and I'm hopeful by the time they move out that what we've got under construction can maybe pick up a few basis points between now and then. And if it gets leased up quickly or a single tenant takes it and we can get better rents, we'll keep trending higher. And look, if we can raise capital at the right way and again as Brent mentioned earlier, we think things like same-store NOI and all those are very important, but our successful development program has been a huge driver to our FFO growth and our NAV creation. So it's great to see those yields coming up.

因此，我很高興我們租賃的建築物有所回升，我希望當他們搬出時，我們正在建設的建築物可能會在現在和那時之間回升一些基點。如果它很快被租出去，或者有一個租戶租用，我們就能獲得更好的租金，我們將繼續走高。看，如果我們能夠以正確的方式再次籌集資金，就像Brent 之前提到的那樣，我們認為同店NOI 之類的事情非常重要，但我們成功的開發計劃一直是我們FFO 增長和我們的FFO 增長的巨大推動力。資產淨值創建。所以很高興看到這些收益率的上升。

The next question comes from Samir Khanal with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Samir Khanal。

Marshall, on the one hand, you talk about market strength, operations being strong and then you talk about demand drivers still intact. But then when I look at your development starts, it's up modestly, right? So I'm just trying to understand like what's holding you back from pushing that number higher? I guess what are the guideposts you're looking at to kind of get -- be a little bit aggressive on that?

馬歇爾，一方面，您談到市場實力、運營強勁，然後您談到需求驅動因素仍然完好無損。但當我看到你的發展開始時，它是適度上升的，對嗎？所以我只是想了解是什麼阻礙了你提高這個數字？我想你正在尋找什麼樣的指導方針——在這方面要有點激進？

Ours is really -- we feel like for us, over the years, $360 million is a pretty good start rate for us. I'm we're happy with that. And I don't -- really holding us up 2 things we'll look at if this is helpful, we have our starts that we've dialed out for the year, which is that $360 million and then when we look at the pages internally, we'll call it a shadow pipeline of if we get lucky, here's the next batch of the next phase and a part typically, here's what could happen. And really, the $360 million, we feel pretty good and solid about it, they're going to happen this year, and we've raised it a couple of times this year. I hope the market demand is there. And we'll go -- I've always tried to take an approach to it for our investors, we'll go as high or as low as the market tells us to. I'm glad we're 98.5% leased and the demand is there.

我們的感覺是，多年來，3.6 億美元對我們來說是一個相當不錯的起始價格。我對此感到滿意。我不——真的阻礙了我們，如果這有幫助的話，我們會考慮兩件事，我們已經開始了今年的計劃，那就是 3.6 億美元，然後當我們查看頁面時在內部，我們將其稱為影子管道，如果幸運的話，這是下一階段的下一批和通常的一部分，這就是可能發生的情況。事實上，3.6 億美元，我們對此感覺非常良好和可靠，它們將在今年實現，而且我們今年已經籌集了幾次。我希望市場有需求。我們會去——我一直試圖為我們的投資者採取一種方法，我們會按照市場告訴我們的價格走高或走低。我很高興我們的 98.5% 已出租，而且需求也存在。

But if phase 3 and a part doesn't lease up, I would act like I think it's the right decision. I'd be comfortable going from $360 million to $380 million or much below that, if we're not leasing up what we built. But hopefully, if that $360 million number rises, it's really the team in the field finding tenants for our current development and will -- our task at corporates really to help them get the capital -- to capitalize on those opportunities. So we'll go as fast or as slow as the market demands and really through, call it, late July, we're forecasting $360 million. But look, if it becomes $400 million, then great, that means we're leasing up our buildings and the markets pulling the next phase of the park faster and faster. And that's really what's happened in the last couple of years, and we'll see how this year plays out.

但如果第三期和一部分沒有出租，我會表現得好像我認為這是正確的決定。如果我們不出租我們建造的東西，我願意從 3.6 億美元到 3.8 億美元或遠低於這個數字。但希望的是，如果 3.6 億美元的數字上升，這確實是該領域的團隊為我們當前的發展尋找租戶，並且將——我們企業的任務實際上是幫助他們獲得資本——利用這些機會。因此，我們將按照市場需求的快慢進行，並真正完成，稱之為 7 月底，我們預測 3.6 億美元。但是看，如果它達到 4 億美元，那就太好了，這意味著我們正在出租我們的建築物，市場將越來越快地拉動公園下一階段的建設。這確實是過去幾年發生的事情，我們將看看今年的情況如何。

Got it. And then I guess my second question is around your guidance. And I know this was asked earlier about sort of NOI growth implying that there's going to be a bit of a slowdown in the second half. I know -- look, you're coming off at a very high level, so I understand that. But maybe talk about some of the markets that are driving that, right? I mean, L.A., we certainly know that's been -- we've talked about that a lot. But maybe talk about your other markets, which is sort of driving that slower growth in the second half?

知道了。然後我想我的第二個問題是圍繞你的指導。我知道早些時候有人問過這個問題是關於 NOI 增長，這意味著下半年將會有所放緩。我知道——看，你的水平非常高，所以我理解這一點。但也許可以談談推動這一趨勢的一些市場，對嗎？我的意思是，洛杉磯，我們當然知道這一點——我們已經討論過很多次了。但也許可以談談你們的其他市場，這在某種程度上推動了下半年增長放緩？

I'm just kind of looking at where we are for the year. It's typically -- and I get it, the market that pulls you down this year is the good market next year. And it's mainly more a function -- I mean at Fort Worth, we had to move out. It's not a big. It's 1 million square feet. There's nothing wrong with the Fort Worth market, but the same-store NOI will be less. It's more -- some of those markets you're coming off 99%, 100% leased and then we get a vacancy. San Francisco is a market where we've got a little bit of vacancy there.

我只是想看看我們今年的處境。這通常是——我明白了，今年讓你失望的市場明年就是好的市場。它主要是一種功能——我的意思是在沃斯堡，我們不得不搬出去。這不是一個大的。面積為 100 萬平方英尺。沃斯堡市場沒有什麼問題，只是同店NOI會少一些。更重要的是，有些市場 99%、100% 已出租，然後我們就會得到空缺。舊金山是一個我們有一點空缺的市場。

As I think about that, it's not in our same-store NOI, but that will -- it's one of the properties we acquired last year. We're backfilling a space where a tenant moved out. So it should be a nice pickup next year. So it's probably more a function, not in terms of market weakness that we're seeing that are above and below the average, so much as where is their vacancy rolling in and out of any market.

我想，它不在我們的同店 NOI 中，但它會——它是我們去年收購的房產之一。我們正在回填租戶搬出的空間。所以明年這應該是一個不錯的選擇。因此，這可能更多的是一種功能，而不是我們看到的高於或低於平均水平的市場疲軟程度，而是他們的空缺在任何市場中進出的位置。

I mean I think maybe if it's more helpful when I look at our core market stats, I've always thought kind of the year-to-date, kind of GAAP rent growth and cash same-store NOI I look and when I see Phoenix, Las Vegas, El Paso, Dallas, GAAP rent growth, all much closer to what we used to achieve only in California for our portfolio. It's great to see those widening. And then the same-store NOI in any given year, maybe we're just not quite as big as some of our peers or one of our peers, in particular, that a move out here or there can make our same-store negative in 1 year and very positive the next.

我的意思是，我認為，當我查看我們的核心市場統計數據時，也許這更有幫助，我一直認為，當我看到鳳凰城時，我會看到今年迄今為止的GAAP 租金增長和現金同店NOI 、拉斯維加斯、埃爾帕索、達拉斯，公認會計準則租金增長，都非常接近我們過去僅在加利福尼亞州的投資組合所實現的水平。很高興看到這些範圍擴大。然後，在任何一年中的同店 NOI，也許我們只是沒有我們的一些同行或我們的一個同行那麼大，特別是，搬到這里或那裡可能會使我們的同店負面影響一年，接下來的一年非常積極。

The next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的邁克爾·卡羅爾。

I wanted to touch on the development questions that you kind of commented earlier. I mean how -- when you underwrite new development projects, I mean, how have those initial targeted yields changed over time? I mean, have the higher construction costs and financing costs, has that pulled yields down? Or have market rents really kept those yields really unchanged over the past year or so?

我想談談您之前評論過的開發問題。我的意思是，當你承保新的開發項目時，這些最初的目標收益率如何隨著時間的推移而變化？我的意思是，建築成本和融資成本較高，是否會導致收益率下降？或者在過去一年左右的時間裡，市場租金真的讓這些收益率真正保持不變嗎？

It's really more what we were probably way with capital market changes. When interest rates were probably at their low and cap rates, we're seeing things in the 3s, we would have looked at a development. If it were in one of our major markets and it's probably as low as we would have gone at any given point in time, let's call it maybe a 5 and, let's call it, 5, 7.5, something like that because we would have said, "Hey, it's still 200 basis points or more above a market cap rate, not that we would exit, but just where cap rates. But as cap rates and interest rates have come up, really, our floor has moved into the higher 6s in terms of kicking off a new development.

這實際上更多的是我們對資本市場變化的看法。當利率可能處於低位且上限利率時，我們看到的情況是 3 秒，我們會關注發展。如果它是在我們的主要市場之一，並且它可能是我們在任何給定時間點的最低水平，我們可以稱之為5，或者，我們可以稱之為5、7.5，類似的東西，因為我們會說，“嘿，它仍然比市值利率高出200 個基點或更多，並不是說我們會退出，而是說我們要退出。但隨著資本化率和利率的上升，實際上，我們的下限已經進入了更高的 6在開啟新發展方面。

The good news is we're still achieving those, and we achieved those even though we would have looked at something, but it was as we competed for land, what were you willing to underwrite to. And we probably 2 years ago would have dipped below 6, where now that's probably moved up a good 100 basis points. And you're right, construction costs have risen, but thankfully, rents have kept pace and so it's been an offset to those 2. And it really hasn't sped up or slowed our development pipeline so much as some things we would have said yes to, we'll probably think we need to get a little bit better yield on or let's kind of keep working on that. Or if it was a lower yield, it would probably be -- like if somebody pre-leased the projects or a good bit of the project, we'd probably accept a little bit lower yield just because the risk is less.

好消息是我們仍然在實現這些目標，儘管我們本來會考慮一些事情，但我們還是實現了這些目標，但這是在我們爭奪土地時，你願意承保的。兩年前我們可能會跌破 6 個基點，而現在可能上升了 100 個基點。你是對的，建築成本上升了，但值得慶幸的是，租金保持了增長，因此它抵消了這兩個因素。它確實沒有像我們所說的一些事情那樣加速或減慢我們的開發進程是的，我們可能會認為我們需要獲得更好的收益，或者讓我們繼續努力。或者，如果收益率較低，那麼可能會是——就像有人預租了項目或項目的很大一部分，我們可能會接受稍微低一點的收益率，因為風險較小。

Okay. And see if I heard you correctly, is like the 4 -- your target is probably about 100 basis points higher than what it was. But what about the exact projects? I mean, has those yields actually increased by that amount over the past year? Or has market rents really kept them in the high 6s, so you're still achieving similar yields as you were last year?

好的。看看我是否聽對了，就像 4——你的目標可能比原來高出約 100 個基點。但具體的項目又如何呢？我的意思是，過去一年這些收益率實際上增加了那麼多嗎？或者市場租金是否確實使租金保持在高 6 的水平，因此您仍能獲得與去年類似的收益率？

Yes, you're correct. More of the latter. Our target's probably risen. Our threshold has risen by, I call it, a good 100 basis points, but rents have matched construction so that the yields have stayed pretty consistent in that 5, 6, 7 type range.

是的，你是對的。後者較多。我們的目標可能已經提高了。我們的門檻已經上升了，我稱之為，100 個基點，但租金與建築相匹配，因此收益率在 5、6、7 類型範圍內保持相當穩定。

The next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Thomas。

I wanted to switch gears and ask about the capital raising in the quarter and the updated forecast for the year regarding common stock issuance. Brent, maybe within the guidance revision, I guess, first, can you just provide some additional detail around the impact, the increase in stock issuance had on the guidance. And from a timing perspective, how should we think about the remaining $175 million of issuance embedded in the guidance? Is that more heavily weighted toward the third quarter just given where the stock is today? Or do you assume that it's more ratable throughout the balance of the year?

我想換個話題，詢問本季度的融資情況以及今年有關普通股發行的最新預測。布倫特，也許在指導意見修訂範圍內，我想，首先，您能否提供一些有關股票發行增加對指導意見影響的額外細節。從時間角度來看，我們應該如何看待指南中剩餘的 1.75 億美元發行？考慮到該股目前的狀況，第三季度的權重是否更大？或者你認為它在這一年餘下的時間裡更容易被評價？

Yes, I'll start with the latter there. Yes, the $175 million, we pretty much have that equal weighted throughout the remainder of the year as our capital source. And just to back up for a moment, as we always do, when we're looking at our funding sources from outside or funding that's required. If you look back going to 2022, we had about $600 million of what I would say, outside or external source funding and that was about $525 million of debt. And we did that. If you remember, we got kind of what we felt like in hindsight we did get ahead of rate hikes. We did that $525 million at an average rate of 3.8%, which in hindsight is very good, and we only did $75 million of equity last year.

是的，我將從後者開始。是的，1.75 億美元，我們在今年剩餘時間內幾乎擁有同等權重作為我們的資本來源。當我們考慮外部資金來源或所需資金時，我們會像往常一樣，暫時支持一下。如果你回顧 2022 年，我們有大約 6 億美元的外部資金，也就是大約 5.25 億美元的債務。我們做到了。如果你還記得的話，事後看來，我們確實在加息之前得到了某種感覺。我們以 3.8% 的平均利率投資了 5.25 億美元，事後看來這非常好，而去年我們只投資了 7500 萬美元的股本。

But then you look at this year and as rates did go up latter half of last year and in this year, long-term debt for us today, given our Baa2, you're probably looking at somewhere around 6%. I mean the tenures crept back up to 3.9-ish. So if you had 2.10 somewhere in there is probably where we would be on top. And even the revolver, which obviously has traditionally been in short term has been the cheapest debt by far at 1.18 months ago, we were sub-1%. And now the revolver is like 6% itself.

但你看看今年，去年下半年和今年的利率確實有所上升，考慮到我們的 Baa2，今天我們的長期債務可能會在 6% 左右。我的意思是任期回升至 3.9 左右。所以如果你有 2.10 的某個地方，我們可能會處於領先地位。即使是左輪手槍，顯然傳統上是短期債務，也是迄今為止最便宜的債務，為 1.18 個月前，我們的債務也低於 1%。現在左輪手槍本身就只有 6% 了。

So any dollar that you have sitting on the revolver now suddenly costing you a pretty meaningful percentage. So that's why you've seen us this year pivot to the equity side. So out of a projected, call it, $575 million of external sourcing, we've kind of pivoted the opposite of last year. We're projecting $475 million of equity, of which $300 million done and $100 million of debt, which we did back in January. So we'll continue to toggle back and forth in a short measurement period, it might look while they're really leaning heavy into equity, which we are.

因此，你在左輪手槍上的任何美元現在突然讓你損失了相當大的百分比。這就是為什麼我們今年轉向股權方面。因此，在預計的 5.75 億美元外部採購中，我們的轉向與去年相反。我們預計股本為 4.75 億美元，其中 3 億美元已完成，債務為 1 億美元，我們在一月份就完成了這項工作。因此，我們將繼續在短時間內來回切換，看起來他們確實非常傾向於股權，而我們正是如此。

But when you back up for a moment, kind of average everything out, we think it's important to look at every avenue and to tap into each, you can't lever yourself too much. You don't want to get to delevered either. So we like where it is. The price has actually rebounded some since quarter end. So if it could hang in there, it would be even incrementally more attractive.

但是，當你暫時後退，對所有事情進行平均時，我們認為重要的是要考慮每一條途徑並利用每一條途徑，你不能對自己施加太大的壓力。你也不想去槓桿化。所以我們喜歡它所在的地方。自季度末以來，價格實際上有所反彈。因此，如果它能堅持下去，它會越來越有吸引力。

The good news is, is we continue to have good reason to raise capital. We're not raising capital for retiring certain debt through this that and the other, we're raising capital because our team continues to put this money to work at very -- primarily via development, but other avenues that make it still very accretive to do so. And so right now, it's equity, that could change. But yes, that $175 million that's left -- and again, that's a flexible number. If the guys could -- as Marshall said, if development starts to climb because of good markets or if we continue to find some opportunistic buys kind of like we did with the Vegas property, you get a couple of those, then you may even ratchet that number higher, but that's kind of how we're looking at it at the moment.

好消息是，我們繼續有充分的理由籌集資金。我們籌集資金並不是為了通過這樣那樣的方式償還某些債務，我們籌集資金是因為我們的團隊繼續將這筆錢投入到工作中——主要是通過開發，但其他途徑使其仍然非常增值這樣做。所以現在，公平性可能會發生變化。但是，是的，剩下的 1.75 億美元——再說一次，這是一個靈活的數字。如果這些人可以——正如馬歇爾所說，如果由於市場良好而開發開始攀升，或者如果我們繼續找到一些機會主義的購買，就像我們對維加斯地產所做的那樣，你會得到其中一些，那麼你甚至可能會增加這個數字更高，但這就是我們目前的看法。

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. Yes, I mean, I guess, in terms of the use of funding there, you have a little under $200 million of remaining spend for the development lease-up pipelines, so that makes sense. But in terms of investments, it was a relatively quiet quarter, I guess, maybe, Marshall, can you just talk about the pipeline today and maybe provide some color around what you're seeing and whether you're starting to see some better opportunities surface?

好的。是的，這很有幫助。是的，我的意思是，我想，就資金的使用而言，用於開發租賃管道的剩餘支出略低於 2 億美元，所以這是有道理的。但就投資而言，這是一個相對安靜的季度，我想，也許，馬歇爾，你能談談今天的管道嗎？也許可以提供一些關於你所看到的情況的信息，以及你是否開始看到一些更好的機會表面？

Sure. We're happy with the acquisition we found in Las Vegas, which is again a strategic market that we want to grow in, and it's been another kind of strong rental rate growth market. We've tried to take the approach, and we haven't been as successful as I'd hoped of, given the capital market turn kind of -- we've seen development opportunities to step into, but we haven't seen the acquisition opportunities that there's still a pool of whether it's private buyers or this or that, we thought with debt higher, private equity is going to be stretched. The funds were having redemption challenges and things like that, that there'd be better core buying opportunities that have turned out on the market today.

當然。我們對在拉斯維加斯發現的收購感到滿意，這又是我們希望發展的戰略市場，也是另一種租金率強勁增長的市場。我們嘗試過採取這種方法，但我們並沒有像我希望的那樣成功，考慮到資本市場的轉變——我們已經看到了可以介入的發展機會，但我們還沒有看到收購機會仍然存在，無論是私人買家還是這個或那個，我們認為隨著債務的增加，私募股權將會捉襟見肘。這些基金面臨著贖回挑戰以及類似的問題，今天市場上出現了更好的核心購買機會。

That said, we continue to kind of make our offer here and there. We'll be strategic about it. And the way we've kind of tried to take the mindset on it, too, if this is helpful, if we don't make any acquisitions, we're okay. We'll keep funding the development pipeline and grow at the pace we can. But if we can find some owners that are maybe having a little bit of distress or if it's an off-market opportunities or -- in a couple of cases, we've looked where it's a owner-user selling a good multi-tenant building, and it's a way for them to raise capital. That if we can get yields that where the spreads are not that far away from development or at least are attractive enough on a risk-return basis, that's where we'll step in.

也就是說，我們繼續到處提出我們的報價。我們將對此採取戰略性措施。我們也嘗試採取這種心態，如果這有幫助，如果我們不進行任何收購，我們就沒事。我們將繼續為開發渠道提供資金，並以我們力所能及的速度發展。但是，如果我們能找到一些業主，他們可能遇到了一點麻煩，或者這是一個場外機會，或者——在一些情況下，我們已經了解了出售優質多租戶建築的業主用戶的情況，這是他們籌集資金的一種方式。如果我們能夠獲得的收益率與發展相差不遠，或者至少在風險回報的基礎上具有足夠的吸引力，那麼我們就會介入。

So I hope we can make a few more acquisitions, but we'll be trying to be patient and disciplined about it. And the market definitely has firmed up a good bit, dramatically from where it was a year ago, which was meaning more of how bad the market was a year ago, but we're certainly seeing trades, not portfolios, which was really never where we were that active, but there still is a number of bidders in second and third rounds, and we've come close, but really only bought the one property year-to-date. And we'll -- hopefully, we can find another 1 or 2 before year end, but we'll be okay either way.

因此，我希望我們能夠進行更多收購，但我們會盡力保持耐心和紀律。與一年前相比，市場肯定已經穩定了很多，這更多地意味著一年前的市場有多糟糕，但我們肯定看到的是交易，而不是投資組合，這真的從來沒有發生過。我們非常活躍，但在第二輪和第三輪中仍然有許多競標者，我們已經接近了，但今年迄今為止實際上只購買了一處房產。我們希望能夠在年底前找到另外一兩個，但無論如何我們都會沒事的。

(Operator Instructions) The next question comes from Jason Belcher with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Jason Belcher。

I noticed your occupancy was up sequentially in the quarter, while lease rate was down. Both were flat just about 1.5 months ago when you provided your interim update on June 1, that will be a flat to the prior quarter at that time. Can you just give us some color on what drove that divergence over the past month or so?

我注意到你們的入住率在本季度連續上升，而租賃率卻下降了。大約 1.5 個月前，當您在 6 月 1 日提供中期更新時，兩者都持平，屆時與上一季度持平。您能否告訴我們一些關於過去一個月左右造成這種差異的原因？

I'm trying to -- I don't have the -- apologize June, and I think in terms of just watching it that maybe that a month ago, we're happy where the quarter came out. And again, I know -- I'm grateful our occupancy was up. The average quarter year-over-year was flat for the overall portfolio and actually for the same-store pool 2. And I'm glad we're a little bit higher 30 basis points than we were at the end of the first quarter. And that's -- I don't know if that's indicative of the market just so much as a little bit of move here and there. The numbers are almost the happiest with this quarter are a little better, one of them was our re-leasing spreads getting to 38% cash and the 53% GAAP. And again, I'd say at least kind of looking at where things stand, maybe by the time we wrap up second quarter and get our release out, we're virtually at the end of July.

我試圖——我沒有——向六月道歉，我認為就僅僅觀看而言，也許一個月前，我們對這個季度的結果感到高興。再說一次，我知道——我很感激我們的入住率已經上升了。整體投資組合的平均季度同比持平，實際上同店池 2 的平均季度同比持平。我很高興我們比第一季度末高了 30 個基點。那就是——我不知道這是否表明市場只是到處波動。這個季度的數字幾乎是最令人高興的，稍微好一點，其中之一是我們的再租賃利差達到了 38% 的現金和 53% 的 GAAP。再說一次，我想說至少要看看事情的進展，也許當我們結束第二季度並發布我們的版本時，我們實際上已經在七月底了。

So at least 7 months of the year, it's been a pretty consistent year. We've kind of stayed ebbed and flowed around 98% leased, 98% occupied. So the last 5 months are the trickiest, and we'll see how those shake out. But I'm grateful that 7 months of the year have been pretty stable in what's felt like a pretty unstable environment at times given -- mainly the capital market fluctuation. So I know that's not a very specific answer, but at least that kind of helps where at the end of the day, our second quarter was pretty consistent with last year, which was a as Brent said, we're coming up against 40-year highs for our company in terms of where occupancy is percent leased. We used to think of -- historically, 95% leased is fully leased, and we've been at 98% and 99% a couple of quarters, which is -- there's not much margin to improve on that. So we're happy that we're hanging in there versus those comps.

因此，一年中至少有 7 個月是相當穩定的一年。我們一直處於低潮期，98% 已出租，98% 已入住。因此，最後 5 個月是最棘手的，我們將看看情況如何。但我很慶幸的是，一年中的 7 個月在有時感覺相當不穩定的環境中（主要是資本市場波動）相當穩定。所以我知道這不是一個非常具體的答案，但至少有這種幫助，最終，我們的第二季度與去年相當一致，正如布倫特所說，我們面臨著 40-就出租率而言，我們公司創下了今年的新高。我們曾經認為，從歷史上看，95% 的租賃已全部出租，而我們幾個季度一直處於 98% 和 99% 的水平，也就是說，沒有太多改進的餘地。所以我們很高興我們能在這些比賽中堅持下去。

Understood. And then secondly, you mentioned that the tenant decision time lines remain elongated. Can you just give us a little more color there and maybe comment on what that time line looks like today versus a year or so ago? And if that elongated time line, as it is today, is continuing to widen out or lengthen or does it appear to have stabilized somewhat in recent weeks or months?

明白了。其次，您提到租戶決策的時間線仍然很長。您能否給我們提供更多信息，並評論一下今天與一年左右的時間線相比如何？如果這條拉長的時間線，就像今天一樣，繼續加寬或延長，或者在最近幾週或幾個月似乎有所穩定？

It feels a little more stable. Maybe a couple of years ago, when things were so hard, it felt like people were afraid of losing space. And I remember talking to a couple of tenant rep brokers saying their jobs not much fun. They were going to tour and be told 2 or 3 other people are looking at the same space. And people felt in a rush to take space, and that's maybe how you saw maybe a couple of large users commit to more space than they wanted and things like that, that had turned out later they said, we may have overdone it and things like that. And it probably -- there's almost -- if I oversimplify it in 2 buckets, and it's the national, the larger the company and maybe the more legal back and forth happens on those leases and things like that, that it just takes longer.

感覺比較穩定一點。也許幾年前，當事情如此艱難時，人們感覺就像害怕失去空間。我記得與幾個租戶代表經紀人交談時說他們的工作沒什麼樂趣。他們正要去參觀，卻被告知還有 2 到 3 個人正在參觀同一個空間。人們感到急於佔用空間，這也許就是你看到的一些大用戶承諾比他們想要的更多空間之類的事情，後來證明，他們說，我們可能做得太過分了，諸如此類的事情那。如果我把它過度簡化為兩類，那麼它可能——幾乎——是全國性的，公司越大，也許這些租賃和類似事情上發生的合法來回越多，它只是需要更長的時間。

And I've kind of told myself it's just -- it's natural human psychology when you read the news or watch the news, there's so much concern about the economy and waiting for a recession that it feels like large companies have -- I think it's probably more normalized. I don't think it's getting longer, but are being patient and thoughtful about their space needs and the smaller companies, maybe it's an owner or more regionally based, they're still moving pretty quickly and maybe their process for all their approvals and things like that isn't quite as cumbersome.

我告訴自己，這只是——當你閱讀新聞或觀看新聞時，這是自然的人類心理，人們對經濟有如此多的擔憂，並等待經濟衰退，感覺就像大公司一樣——我認為這是可能更加正常化。我不認為它會變得更長，但對他們的空間需求和較小的公司保持耐心和周到，也許它是一個所有者或更多基於區域的公司，他們仍然移動得很快，也許他們所有批准和事情的流程這樣就沒有那麼麻煩了。

The other explanation, if this is helpful, was one of the brokers explained it to me, is rents have risen so much over the last few years and as their space requirements, the -- what the tenants are committing to in terms of lease liability, the absolute dollars has risen so much that in a number of cases, it takes depending the company another layer or 2 of approvals before they can get there. So that makes -- at least made sense to me of why once you got into LOI, it took so long to get a lease signed just by -- the bigger the company, the more approvals, and the lease liability was triggering other layers of approval than it had maybe a year or 2 earlier.

另一種解釋（如果這有幫助的話）是一位經紀人向我解釋的，租金在過去幾年中上漲了很多，並且隨著他們的空間需求，租戶在租賃責任方面所承諾的內容，絕對美元上漲如此之多，以至於在許多情況下，公司需要再獲得一兩層批准才能達到這一目標。所以這使得——至少對我來說是有道理的，為什麼一旦你進入意向書，需要很長時間才能簽署租約——公司越大，批准越多，而租賃責任會引發其他層面的問題。批准比可能早一兩年。

Next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆。

Two quick ones for me. So the first is just on the same-store NOI, and I think we're all trying to build a function for what that could look like next year? And if I'm taking your cash spreads of 38% in the quarter with -- I see 13% coming due, 13% early next year, you easily get to a 6% to 7% number. So the question really is, is occupancy and bad debt, sort of the biggest delta that we should be thinking about next year and so forth?

對我來說兩個快點。所以第一個只是在同店 NOI 上，我想我們都在嘗試為明年的情況構建一個功能？如果我本季度現金利差為 38%，我預計 13% 即將到期，明年初為 13%，那麼您很容易得到 6% 到 7% 的數字。所以問題實際上是，入住率和壞賬是我們明年應該考慮的最大增量嗎？

Yes. Ron, this is Brent. I would say you're right on. And certainly, based on -- we still feel good about that rental rate growth component, and we have annual escalators and the vast, vast majority of our leases, and that's grown now to be -- used to be like mid-2s on average. And now I'd say that's grown just north of 3% as we've been able to lever that overall as well. But I would say more of that component to look for next year would be occupancy side versus bad debt. Bad debt continues to be low, collection is good. And so not to say that couldn't increase, but it feels at a manageable pace.

是的。羅恩，這是布倫特。我想說你是對的。當然，基於 - 我們仍然對租金增長部分感到滿意​​，而且我們有年度自動扶梯和絕大多數的租賃，現在已經增長到 - 過去平均約為 2 左右。現在我想說，這一增長幅度剛剛超過 3%，因為我們也能夠整體利用這一點。但我想說，明年要關注的更多因素將是入住率與壞賬。壞賬持續較低，收款情況良好。所以並不是說這個數字不能增加，但感覺是在可控的範圍內。

The occupancy side, again, as I just mentioned earlier, for example, the same-store bucket, the comparable occupancy for third quarter is going to be 98.5% in the same-store comparable for the bucket for last year and fourth quarter is going to be 98.8%. I mean that we know. I mean, that was the occupancy last year for our current same-store bucket. So those are going to be pretty hefty comparisons. And so I think that part of it would be -- I agree with what you're saying about the rental rate increases in that component of it being 6% to 7%, and then it's a matter of where do you think occupancy is going to be.

入住率方面，正如我剛才提到的，例如，同店類別，去年第三季度的同店可比入住率將達到 98.5%，第四季度的同店可比入住率將達到為98.8%。我的意思是我們知道。我的意思是，這是去年我們當前同店的入住率。所以這些將是相當大的比較。所以我認為其中的一部分是——我同意你所說的租金上漲6%到7%的說法，然後問題是你認為入住率會走向何方成為。

We continue to budget it slightly on basis point measurement slightly coming down, and it continues to -- as Marshall said, continues to be pretty stubborn and hang around 98%. So if that happens through the last 2 quarters of the year, we'll do better than what we've got dialed up right now because we are showing just a slight bit of pullback. But -- so we'll see, but that is -- I agree with you, that's probably the biggest component going into next year is how might that impact one way or the other on to same store.

我們繼續根據基點測量略有下降來對其進行預算，並且正如馬歇爾所說，它仍然非常頑固並徘徊在 98% 左右。因此，如果這種情況在今年最後兩個季度發生，我們會做得比現在更好，因為我們只是出現了輕微的回調。但是 - 所以我們會看到，但那就是 - 我同意你的觀點，這可能是明年最大的組成部分，這可能會對同一家商店產生怎樣的影響。

Great. And then my second one, just on maybe a little bit more commentary on onshoring or friend-shoring and so forth. Just what sort of data are you hearing from tenants, or are you seeing in the markets? We hear about it a lot of the news, but curious where that's flowing through in the portfolio?

偉大的。然後是我的第二個，只是對外包或朋友外包等進行更多評論。您從租戶那裡聽到了什麼樣的數據，或者您在市場上看到了什麼樣的數據？我們聽到了很多關於它的新聞，但很好奇這些新聞在投資組合中流向何處？

Maybe a little, I guess, on what we see -- what we're seeing is maybe twofold in Texas, we're seeing companies, it's more tech. And then maybe that's not onshoring or nearshoring so much. It's just -- I guess I put in population shifts. I mean, Tesla has had a large impact not -- directly and indirectly within Austin and then even in San Antonio, we've picked up Tesla suppliers. So their relocation has been a pretty dramatic impact. And we've seen -- where Texas seems to pick up is more technology and medical-related manufacturers, Dallas and Austin, where we've seen that pickup and prospect activity.

我想，也許有一點，我們所看到的——我們在德克薩斯州看到的可能是雙重的，我們看到的是公司，更多的是科技。或許這並不完全是在岸或近岸。只是——我想我考慮了人口變化。我的意思是，特斯拉在奧斯汀甚至在聖安東尼奧都直接和間接地產生了巨大的影響，我們已經選擇了特斯拉的供應商。所以他們的搬遷產生了相當巨大的影響。我們已經看到，德克薩斯州似乎有更多的技術和醫療相關製造商，達拉斯和奧斯汀，我們已經看到了這種增長和潛在活動。

Where we've seen it on and when we're looking for that next opportunity in San Diego, we're full there. And we did buy 4 buildings that were 50% leased and quickly leased those up, but it was electronics, manufacturing and medical products and things like that, that are manufactured in Tijuana and then coming over the border. So as those markets stay tight and then in San Diego, you actually have the city pushing further and further south. Amazon, who was one of our big pre-lease opportunities, they wanted to be closer to the city of San Diego, but couldn't find the land. So it all gets pushed there together at the border.

當我們在聖地亞哥尋找下一個機會時，我們已經在那裡了。我們確實購買了 4 棟已出租 50% 的建築物，並很快將其出租，但電子產品、製造和醫療產品之類的產品是在蒂華納製造，然後越過邊境運來的。因此，隨著這些市場保持緊張，然後在聖地亞哥，實際上這座城市正在向南推進。亞馬遜是我們最大的預租機會之一，他們想要靠近聖地亞哥市，但找不到土地。所以這一切都在邊境被推到一起。

And then the other thing that I think really helped San Diego is they're building a second border crossing that will be more technologically advanced. So it's supposedly a faster border crossing, and a lot of our product is in between those 2 border crossings. So we're bullish on South San Diego. We need -- I shouldn't say that because we're trying to find the next opportunity there, but it seems to be slow build here and there. And when you look, I think the vacancy rate of doing this from memory, which is dangerous, but was under 2% in Juárez, Mexico and things like that. And I think Tijuana is about the same. So there's just -- those markets are tight and continue to grow, and that spillover continues to help us. And where we -- and again, when we've seen it more companies -- look, we hope California stays a strong market, but if people do leave California, we like that we're balanced and that we're picking up that tenancy in markets like Las Vegas and in Texas and in Arizona as well.

我認為真正對聖地亞哥有幫助的另一件事是他們正在建設第二個技術更先進的過境點。因此，這應該是一個更快的過境點，而我們的很多產品都位於這兩個過境點之間。所以我們看好南聖地亞哥。我們需要——我不應該這麼說，因為我們正在努力尋找下一個機會，但似乎到處都進展緩慢。當你看時，我認為憑記憶做這件事的空缺率是危險的，但在墨西哥華雷斯等地，空缺率低於 2%。我認為蒂華納也差不多。因此，這些市場供應緊張且持續增長，而這種溢出效應繼續對我們有幫助。當我們看到更多的公司時，我們希望加州保持強勁的市場，但如果人們確實離開加州，我們喜歡我們的平衡，我們正在恢復這一點拉斯維加斯、德克薩斯州和亞利桑那州等市場的租賃。

The next question comes from Ki Bin Kim with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Ki Bin Kim 和 Truist。

Just a follow up on that equity raise question. I'm just curious what were some of the decision inputs to get to that additional $175 million of equity in the second half. And if you -- once you execute that, your leverage all of equal be closer to 4x. I'm just curious, in your press release, it sounded like a little bit more defensive posturing, but -- and I know you haven't been known to do large-scale acquisitions, but are there some deals or opportunities that you see in the horizon for larger-scale appeals?

只是股權融資問題的後續行動。我只是好奇下半年獲得額外 1.75 億美元股本的一些決策投入是什麼。如果您執行該操作，您的槓桿率將接近 4 倍。我只是很好奇，在你們的新聞稿中，這聽起來像是一種防禦性的姿態，但是——我知道你們並沒有進行大規模收購，但你們是否看到了一些交易或機會是否有更大規模的呼籲？

Yes, I'll address the first part. Again, really, it's a matter of us evaluating in the moment what we feel like is our best avenue. And as I alluded to earlier, 2022, that wound up being heavy debt early in the year about $525 million out of $600 million. And then this year, we've kind of gone almost the other. If you put the two together, we're basically 50-50 debt to equity between '22 and '23. So we're careful to try to be balanced on the long run, but certainly in the short run, it does continue to drive our debt-to-EBITDA and debt metrics down lower than you would say that "need to be."

是的，我將討論第一部分。再說一次，實際上，我們要立即評估我們認為最好的途徑是什麼。正如我早些時候提到的，2022 年，年初的 6 億美元中約有 5.25 億美元是沉重的債務。然後今年，我們幾乎已經走了另一個。如果將兩者放在一起，我們在 22 年至 23 年間基本上是 50-50 的債務股本比。因此，從長遠來看，我們會小心翼翼地努力保持平衡，但從短期來看，它確實會繼續推動我們的債務與 EBITDA 和債務指標低於您所說的“需要”。

But the one thing that's been just interesting in this environment, Ki Bin, is like I say, even where you could short-term park capital per se on the revolver and let that glide over time and then decide over a period of time, if you might want to do debt or equity, I would say that the highest rate of the revolver has kept us more immediately interested in issuing equity to basically fund as we go just because it's right now, it's such a big spread between, say, a low 4 or 4.25 versus a 6, just day 1 on an equity dollar versus a revolver dollar. That will come down. And as it comes down, we may then begin to float our revolver a little bit more within the reason.

但在這種環境下，有趣的一件事是，Ki Bin，就像我說的，即使你可以將短期資本本身放在左輪手槍上，讓它隨著時間的推移而滑動，然後在一段時間內做出決定，如果你可能想做債務或股票，我想說的是，左輪手槍的最高利率讓我們對發行股票更感興趣，以基本上為我們提供資金，因為現在就是這樣，比如說，低4 或4.25 與6，僅第一天股票美元與左輪手槍美元。那會下來的。當它下降時，我們可能會開始在合理範圍內稍微浮動我們的左輪手槍。

But -- so it's -- we take it as it comes. Certainly, there's a point you had reached to where, do you want to continue to go lower? We look at other avenues. We've looked at even other avenues besides our traditional private placement. You're looking at convertible bonds and some of that you're seeing more out in the market amongst other companies today. So our role is to always be looking at those sources and then just tapping into it as best as it looks at the moment. Hopefully, that's helpful.

但是——事情就是這樣——我們就順其自然。當然，你已經達到了一個點，你想繼續走低嗎？我們著眼於其他途徑。除了傳統的私募之外，我們甚至還考慮了其​​他途徑。您正在關注可轉換債券，其中一些您在當今市場上的其他公司中看到了更多。因此，我們的角色是始終關注這些來源，然後儘可能地利用它。希望這有幫助。

And Ki Bin, this is Marshall. I agree with Brent, and I would jump in and you did use the phrase, I remember in our speech, the dry powder, and we're seeing those opportunities on good development side. So you want to have the ability if you find an opportunity to execute on it. I keep waiting for good or better acquisition opportunities than the market has allowed now. And I don't know if regulators at some point step in and the banks have some issues to get some loans off their books or things like that. And I've been hopeful we'd find those. It's been me being more hopeful than reality, but I'm not sure that's all played out yet as well.

基賓，這是馬歇爾。我同意布倫特的觀點，我會插話，你確實使用了這個短語，我記得在我們的演講中，“乾粉”，我們在良好的發展方面看到了這些機會。因此，如果你找到執行的機會，你就希望擁有這種能力。我一直在等待比市場現在允許的更好或更好的收購機會。我不知道監管機構是否會在某個時候介入，銀行是否會遇到一些問題，無法從賬簿上扣除一些貸款或類似的事情。我一直希望我們能找到那些。我的希望多於現實，但我不確定這一切是否都已實現。

So if we do find those -- if we don't, we'll continue funding development and maybe worst case, we're a couple of months ahead of what we needed. And in the best case, we can find some good strategic acquisition opportunities, kind of long-term strategy, whether it's a market we wanted to grow in or a building around the corner, ideally both. And we'll have that ability to step in when other people may be capital constrained has been the goal.

因此，如果我們確實找到了這些——如果沒有，我們將繼續資助開發，也許最壞的情況是，我們比我們需要的提前了幾個月。在最好的情況下，我們可以找到一些良好的戰略收購機會，某種長期戰略，無論是我們想要增長的市場還是拐角處的建築，最好兩者兼而有之。當其他人可能受到資本限制時，我們將有能力介入，這是我們的目標。

And the second question on what you just mentioned convertible bonds. How does the pricing and the effective yield compared to like a straight bond? And is that something that's more realistic to address your 2024 maturities?

第二個問題是關於你剛才提到的可轉換債券。與普通債券相比，定價和有效收益率如何？對於 2024 年的到期日來說，這是更現實的事情嗎？

Well, the yield is lower than, say, a public bond, but then you've got the other components that go along with that, though, right, the conversion ability and what is that spread to convert. And so you've got costs associated with it that you have to dial in that adds to that initial coupon rate. So there's some moving components there. Again, it's something that we're just keep ourselves apprised to and again, just look at it as you sort of look at arrows in your quiver and you want to keep -- be completely cognizant and aware of all of them so that you can tap into the one that's needed.

嗯，收益率低於公共債券，但是你還有與之相伴的其他組成部分，對吧，轉換能力以及要轉換的利差是多少。因此，您必須支付與之相關的成本，這會增加初始票面利率。所以那裡有一些移動的組件。再說一次，我們只是讓自己隨時了解這一點，就像你看箭袋裡的箭頭一樣，你想保留它——完全認識並意識到所有這些，這樣你就可以點擊所需的那個。

I will say we don't -- we only have like $50 million coming this August and then a very low -- the maturities next year, when you look at the schedule about, I think about $120 million of next year's $170 million comes due like late December. So we don't have a lot coming due over the next 18 months, so we don't need big slugs. So the ATM continues to be, again, a good drip capital source for us. But yes, we evaluate it, evaluate it all and just kind of make the decisions as we go.

我想說的是，我們不會——今年8 月我們只有大約5000 萬美元，然後非常低——明年的到期日，當你看看時間表時，我認為明年1.7 億美元中約有1.2億美元到期。比如12月下旬。所以我們在接下來的 18 個月內沒有太多到期的東西，所以我們不需要大塊頭。因此，ATM 機仍然是我們良好的滴灌資金來源。但是，是的，我們會評估它，評估一切，然後邊做邊做決定。

The next question comes from Vince Tibone with Green Street Advisors.

下一個問題來自 Green Street Advisors 的 Vince Tibone。

Can you discuss the health of Bay Area fundamentals and specifically touch on some of the challenges leasing the Hayward value-add acquisition that transferred to the operating portfolio this quarter? And also if you can touch on just how the Tulloch acquisition has performed over a year or so of ownership versus your original expectations?

您能否討論灣區基本面的健康狀況，並具體談談本季度轉移到運營投資組合的海沃德增值收購租賃面臨的一些挑戰？另外，您能否談談收購 Tulloch 的所有權一年左右的表現與您最初的預期相比如何？

Okay. Thanks Vince. I'm sorry it took us a minute to get to you, so I appreciate the question. The Bay Area, it's been interesting just as we watch the number and that's done better stock-wise, tech lay-offs and things like that. I would say maybe 2 parts. The Hayward acquisition has leased up slower than we'd hoped. It was a value add and kind of what we're learning on some of the value adds, the building was not institutionally owned, great location, but older building. And so there was a few months of cleanup, really kind of we painted the building, parking lot work, getting the existing office. It's 1 vacancy. We're knock on wood close to a lease that could start here in the next couple of 3 weeks.

好的。謝謝文斯。很抱歉我們花了一分鐘才找到您，所以我很高興您提出這個問題。灣區，當我們觀察數字時，這很有趣，在股票、科技裁員等方面做得更好。我想說也許是兩部分。海沃德收購案的出租速度比我們希望的要慢。這是一種增值，也是我們在一些增值方面學到的東西，該建築不是機構擁有的，地理位置優越，但建築較舊。因此，我們進行了幾個月的清理工作，我們粉刷了大樓，進行了停車場工作，安置了現有的辦公室。還剩 1 個空缺。我們正在敲鑼打鼓，即將在未來三週內開始租約。

So I'll -- you'll hear me, or I'll drop you an e-mail if we can get that. So that's taken a little bit longer, and it's really 47,000 feet, 1 tenant. So we'll get that and the vacancy rate in Hayward is, I want to say, 2.4%, was the last number I read from CBRE. So it's a tight market, it just took a little bit longer and a change of brokers there to get that leased.

所以我會——你會聽到我的，或者如果我們能收到的話我會給你發一封電子郵件。所以這需要更長的時間，實際上有 47,000 英尺，1 個租戶。所以我們會得到這個結果，我想說的是，海沃德的空置率為 2.4%，這是我從 CBRE 讀到的最後一個數字。因此，這是一個緊張的市場，只是需要更長的時間並更換經紀人才能獲得租賃。

And then Tulloch, all in all, I'd say the leasing we've done to date has been ahead of our pro forma. So we've been happy with that. We do have one vacancy within it on that North Shore [Venetian] submarket that we're working on backfilling that with the tenant move out. But all in all, that's the only vacancy within Tulloch. And to date, thankfully, the leasing we have done has been ahead of what we had underwritten as market rents at the time we made the acquisition.

然後，Tulloch，總而言之，我想說我們迄今為止所做的租賃已經領先於我們的預計。所以我們對此很滿意。我們在北岸[威尼斯人]子市場確實有一個空缺，我們正在努力通過租戶搬出來填補這個空缺。但總而言之，這是塔洛克內部唯一的空缺。值得慶幸的是，迄今為止，我們所做的租賃已經超過了我們在收購時所承保的市場租金。

So the seller has been a gentleman and easy to work with. He's a big EastGroup shareholder, thankfully now, and we've been happy with that portfolio and still like the Bay Area, although it is a market kind of like, I guess, all of California, you watch a little bit more closely than you do some of the other markets these days.

所以賣家是一位紳士，很容易合作。值得慶幸的是，他現在是 EastGroup 的大股東，我們對這個投資組合很滿意，並且仍然喜歡灣區，儘管我猜這是一個類似於整個加州的市場，你比你更密切地觀察這些天做了一些其他市場。

Yes, very helpful color. Just switching gears to my second question. I just wanted to get your thoughts on just the kind of the state of the private transactions market. And simply, are you starting to see any more deal activity in your market? Or is it still pretty quiet with wide bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers, more for core products?

是的，非常有用的顏色。只是切換到我的第二個問題。我只是想了解您對私人交易市場狀況的看法。簡而言之，您是否開始在您的市場上看到更多的交易活動？或者買家和賣家之間的買賣價差仍然相當平靜，尤其是核心產品？

Yes. It feels like it's picked up or picking up, that there is more smaller kind of one-off or it feels like people will break out portfolios. One of the comments I heard from one of the national brokers that a large portfolio is a discount now, and that was more a function of an inability to finance and things like that. So they'll have market-specific portfolios, but we are seeing more activity on core acquisitions and bidding on those and not very successfully, but we bid on a number of those, and it does feel like a year ago where things were just at a stand still on bid ask that there is a little more transaction activity, not nearly where it was at the peak, but better than it was a year ago and then kind of hopefully improving quarter-by-quarter.

是的。感覺就像它被拾起或拾起，有更多較小的一次性產品，或者感覺人們會打破投資組合。我從一位全國經紀人那裡聽到的評論之一是，大型投資組合現在有折扣，這更多是由於無法融資等原因造成的。因此，他們將擁有針對特定市場的投資組合，但我們看到更多關於核心收購和競標的活動，但不是很成功，但我們對其中的一些進行了競標，確實感覺就像一年前，事情還只是這樣出價保持不變意味著交易活動有所增加，雖然與高峰期有所不同，但比一年前要好，然後有望逐季度有所改善。

The next question comes from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Quick question. Thinking about the development side, the supply side of things, have we ever seen such a dramatic decline in starts when fundamentals have been so strong? And it makes me wonder whether -- we're not just at a time out that we look ahead 12 months or 18 months and all of a sudden, we got that 40% that we're giving back now on the development side, all of a sudden starting again. Isn't that quite possible?

快問。想想開發方面、供應方面，當基本面如此強勁時，我們是否見過開工率如此急劇下降？這讓我想知道，我們是否只是在展望未來 12 個月或 18 個月的時候，突然之間，我們得到了現在在開發方面回饋的 40%，所有這些突然又開始了。這不是很有可能嗎？

It's certainly possible. Before when -- I've not seen it, I guess, maybe in something -- I don't want to sound that old result as I actually am. I would say that usually, when development starts drop, the fundamentals are bad. And we've gone really over a year -- I know we kidded about the most anticipated recession ever where the economy feels shaky, but fundamentals are good. The capital markets have been bad, but the fundamentals are good. So I've never seen it. That's what probably early in the year had us pretty stressed about the demands there, where are we going to find the capital to execute on the demands there, felt a little bit better today at certainly stock price wise and maybe that -- you can get debt, it's just expensive, as Brent said.

這當然是可能的。以前——我想，也許是在某些事情上——我沒有見過它——我不想听起來像我實際上那樣的舊結果。我想說的是，通常情況下，當發展開始下降時，基本面就很糟糕。我們已經過去一年多了——我知道我們開玩笑說這是有史以來最令人期待的經濟衰退，經濟感覺不穩定，但基本面良好。資本市場表現不佳，但基本面良好。所以我從來沒見過。這可能是今年年初讓我們對那裡的需求感到非常緊張的原因，我們在哪裡可以找到資金來執行那裡的需求，今天在股價方面感覺好一點，也許 - 你可以得到債務，正如布倫特所說，它只是昂貴。

And I'm hopeful, look, I look back at COVID and we would have -- everybody would have thought I was crazy. I won't put it as we. We should have kept developing right through COVID when it started, and we would have delivered products when the demand was there and gotten some really good construction pricing. And I don't know that I'd compare this time frame to that.

我充滿希望，看，當我回顧新冠疫情時，我們會——每個人都會認為我瘋了。我不會像我們那樣說。我們應該在疫情剛開始時就繼續開發，當有需求時我們就會交付產品，並獲得一些非常好的建築定價。我不知道我是否會將這個時間範圍與那個時間範圍進行比較。

But I hope if demand can just hang in there will be -- it will pick back up, but we may go a few quarters before private and those private developers can get their capital in order to jump back in the market to get supply back to a more normalized level. But demand at 90 -- as we sit today at 98% leased and occupied, I've never seen supply falling as fast as it is. And I think third quarter will be lower, a bigger drop than second quarter was. When we say it was half of what third quarter last year was, I think third quarter will -- I'm estimating 60% drop, something like that in terms of starts.

但我希望，如果需求能夠堅持下去，就會回升，但我們可能會在私人之前幾個季度，那些私人開發商可以獲得資金，以便重返市場，使供應恢復到正常水平。更正常化的水平。但需求為 90——正如我們今天的租賃和入住率為 98%，我從未見過供應下降得如此之快。我認為第三季度會更低，降幅比第二季度更大。當我們說這是去年第三季度的一半時，我認為第三季度會——我估計下降 60%，就像開工率一樣。

And the starts you're seeing today and the ones that you think may happen over the next year or so, do you think you're seeing more like you? In other words, more multi-tenant last mile, shallow bay sort of product? Or has there been -- because clearly, it feels like you're winning here. Is there...

您今天看到的開始以及您認為可能在未來一年左右發生的開始，您認為您看到的情況更像您嗎？換句話說，更多的多租戶最後一英里、淺灣之類的產品？或者曾經有過——因為很明顯，感覺你在這裡贏了。有沒有...

Maybe a little bit higher percentage. I mean, what we hear is the big boxes, and we're not in that, but there are a lot of those in the pipeline, and that's usually the Fortune 1000, and that's where there may be. I was listening to a call maybe a temporary glot of those, but because of the lack of supply following it, eventually, those will get taken. It will just be longer hold periods than probably those developers underwrote. So we may have a little bit slightly higher percentage, but I think so many of the developers we competed with, they are really the ones are aspiring developers that weren't developers until industrial really kind of took off in 2018 and 2019 are completely on the sidelines.

也許百分比會高一點。我的意思是，我們聽到的是大盒子，我們不在其中，但有很多這樣的盒子正在醞釀中，通常是《財富》1000 強，這就是可能存在的地方。我正在聽一個電話，也許是暫時的，但由於隨後缺乏供應，最終，這些都會被拿走。只是持有期可能會比開發商承保的時間更長。因此，我們的比例可能略高一些，但我認為我們與之競爭的許多開發商實際上都是有抱負的開發商，直到 2018 年工業真正起飛和 2019 年才完全成為開發商。場邊。

And so the starts are it's -- there's a few out there, but not nearly what we had grown accustomed to seeing the last few years. And so I think it's still a pretty mixed bag of probably what's getting started, but not much. And a lot of that is probably pretty tenant specific. And we usually say within our markets of what's in the pipeline, 10% to 15% is comparable in terms of what we deliver, and that number is probably holding true, maybe slightly up just because big box is probably dropping faster than shallow bay, but it hasn't moved materially.

所以一開始就是——有一些，但與我們過去幾年習慣看到的不太一樣。所以我認為這仍然是一個相當複雜的包，可能正在開始，但不多。其中很多可能是特定於租戶的。我們通常說，在我們的市場中，就我們交付的產品而言，10% 到15% 是可比的，這個數字可能是正確的，可能會略有上升，只是因為大盒子可能比淺灣下降得更快，但它並沒有發生實質性的變化。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Marshall Loeb for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回馬歇爾·勒布（Marshall Loeb）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you for everyone's time and interest in EastGroup this morning. We appreciate you -- appreciate that. If we didn't get to your question or if anything comes up later, feel free to reach out or e-mail Brent and me and look forward to seeing you soon. Thank you.

感謝大家今天上午對 EastGroup 的關注和關注。我們感謝你——感謝這一點。如果我們沒有回答您的問題或者稍後出現任何問題，請隨時與布倫特和我聯繫或發送電子郵件，並期待很快見到您。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。