Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Euronet Worldwide Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jeff Newman, Executive Vice President and General Counsel for Euronet Worldwide.

Thank you.

Mr. Newman, you may begin.

Thank you, Lauren.

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to Euronet's quarterly results conference call.

We will present our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2018 on this call.

We have Mike Brown, our Chairman and CEO; Rick Weller, our CFO; and Kevin Caponecchi, CEO of our ePay division on the call.

Before we begin, I need to call your attention to the forward-looking statements disclaimer on the first page of the PowerPoint presentation we'll be making today.

Statements made on this call that concern Euronet's or its management's intentions, expectations or predictions of future performance are forward-looking statements.

Euronet's actual results may vary materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors that are listed on the first page of our presentation.

Euronet does not intend to update these forward-looking statements and undertakes no duty to any person to provide any such update under any circumstances.

In addition, the PowerPoint presentation includes a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call to their most comparable GAAP measures.

Now I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Rick Weller.

Thanks, Jeff.

Well, good morning, and welcome to all who have joined us here today.

For your benefit, I will start my comments on Slide 5.

Euronet delivered fourth quarter revenue of $649 million, adjusted operating income of $84.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $116.3 million.

Our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.37 per share, a 21% year-over-year increase and $0.10 ahead of our guidance we provided in October.

These strong EPS results were driven by the performance of all 3 segments, and the amount we exceeded guidance by was largely attributable to favorable tax, less share dilution and improvements in foreign currency exchange rates with the lion's share coming from taxes.

The tax benefits largely stemmed from the additional tax deductions we got upon exercise of nearly expiring options and some benefits resulting from certain clarified IRS positions related to the December 2017 Tax Act.

Slide 6, here we show our 3-year trends -- transactions by segment.

EFT transactions grew 13% from expansion of our ATM and point-of-sale processing networks in Europe and India.

Epay transactions grew 21% with significant contributions from India and Germany.

Money transfers grew 15% with growth across virtually all areas of the money transfer business.

Next slide, please.

On Slide 7, we present our financial results on an as-reported basis for the segments.

On a year-over-year basis, there were significant swings in the foreign currencies where we operate.

For the most part, the major currencies declined between 3% and 6%, with some of the minor currencies changing as much as 3x that.

To normalize the impacts of these currency fluctuations, we have presented our results adjusted for currency on the next slide.

Here on Slide 8, I'll review with you the segment results for the fourth quarter.

EFT concluded its outstanding year with fourth quarter constant currency revenue growth of 15%, and adjusted operating income and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% each.

These strong growth rates were the result of a 9% increase in our ATM network and a 13% increase in transactions, primarily from Europe and India.

The transaction growth includes an increase of our core domestic withdrawal transactions as well as value-added transactions on ATMs and point-of-sale terminals, including dynamic currency conversion, domestic and international surcharge and foreign currency dispensing.

As noted in our press release, operating income includes a one-time expense of $6.6 million related to a post-acquisition charge, which has been excluded from adjusted operating income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS.

Revenue and gross profit per transaction and operating margins remained relatively consistent year-over-year.

While at the same time, we added nearly 300 more ATMs and winterized 900 more ATMs in the fourth quarter compared to the same time last year.

Epay.

In epay, it delivered a very strong fourth quarter.

Adjusted for the new 606 revenue standard, constant currency pro forma revenue grew 17%.

Adjusted operating income grew 19% and adjusted EBITDA grew 16%.

These excellent results were driven by strong fourth quarter sales of nonmobile content.

Gross profit per transaction came in a bit due to a stronger mix of India transactions, but operating margins expanded year-over-year due to a continued growth of our high-margin nonmobile products.

Money Transfer finished the year with fourth quarter constant currency revenue growth of 17%, adjusted operating income growth of 26%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 23%.

These very strong double-digit growth rates were the result of a 16% increase in Money Transfers, which included contributions from virtually all areas of the Money Transfer business.

Leverage of transaction growth, together with improved revenue and gross profits per transaction contributed nicely to an expansion of operating margins in Money Transfer by more than 100 basis points.

This was a very strong finish to 2018, where all 3 segments posted double-digit growth across all metrics.

With the double-digit epay contributions this quarter, together with the double-digit performance of EFT and Money Transfer, it's easy to see that EFT is firing on all cylinders.

Now let's move to Slide 10 to discuss the full year.

Here on Slide 10, we present a summary of our results for the full year 2018 compared to 2017.

Since we have talked with you every quarter about the results, I won't go through all the details again.

But I would like to highlight that all of our consolidated constant currency results grew at strong double-digit rates, including revenue adjusted for 606 revenue recognition standard, which grew at 14%; adjusted operating income, which grew at 18%; and adjusted EBITDA, which grew at 16%.

Full year EPS was $5.53, a 21% year-over-year increase.

This is the sixth consecutive year we have delivered double-digit growth in adjusted EPS, highlighting our success of delivering more products and services across more markets and channels, both physical and digital.

Again, just an outstanding year for Euronet, highlighted by contributions from all 3 segments.

Now let's go to Slide 14 and briefly review the balance sheet.

On a year-over-year basis, our balance sheet continued to strengthen.

The increase in cash is the result of cash flows generated from operations and borrowings on the revolver to fund additional ATM cash needs, partially offset by share repurchases, capital expenditures and cash paid for a couple small acquisitions.

You may recall that in the third quarter, we announced the expansion of our credit facility to $1 billion.

And as you can see here, we have a relatively light leverage ratio, and that, together with the billion-dollar revolver, it gives us a great deal of capital flexibility to drive the business for future growth.

The strength of our balance sheet is just another factor that allows us to be successful in the competitive environment in which we operate.

As I close, I think it bears repeating that this was another exceptional year for Euronet, and we're quite well positioned to continue that success going forward.

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike.

Thank you, Rick, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

I will start my comments on Slide #16.

Well, to start, I got to say, ladies and gentleman, don't you just love this chart?

As I speak with investors, one point they continue to make is the strength of our business and our ability to deliver consistent double-digit year-over-year growth.

We certainly are well aware of the consistency of our growth and we're glad to see more and more investors are tuned into our sustained long-run double-digit growth.

With the close of the final quarter of 2018, you can see from the graph on Slide 16, for 6 consecutive years, we have grown our business at strong double-digit growth rates.

We have achieved this strong growth by adding more emerging payment products, made possible by continued investment in advanced technology infrastructure to serve our needs, and to meet the needs of the fast-growing digitally driven payment space.

This advanced technology will allow us to grow in bigger and bigger ways by focusing on the evolving payment infrastructure, while leveraging the significant strength of our core markets.

All of this strengthens our confidence that this time next year, we'll be talking to you about our seventh year of double-digit year-over-year growth.

So let me share with you a little more about the significance of our global assets and a bit about our secret sauce leading-edge technology supporting our growth as we go on to the next slide, Slide #17.

Our growth is powered by our unique and powerful portfolio of physical and digital assets, which allows us to achieve success in our more traditional areas and has also led to success in the next-generation digital landscape.

As you study this slide, you can see that the foundation of our business is in these global assets that we have accumulated and integrated.

Our physical network now includes 43,711 ATMs, 973,000 POS terminals, 369,000 physical money transfer locations, while our digital assets include 74 million app downloads, Euronet websites that attract more than 265 million digital users per year and cloud-based transaction technology that allows us to integrate with the world's biggest digital players out there, including PayPal, Alipay, Amazon, Google, iTunes, Netflix, Microsoft, Paytm and more.

All of these assets have allowed us to process more than 4 billion transactions and more than $115 billion in payment value.

Despite the seemingly independent nature of these assets, we have worked to leverage the technologies to support all 3 of our business segments, including to allow for money transfers to be collected from our ATMs with or without cards, to power gift code sales on an Amazon website, to integrate Alipay with banks and retailers, just to name a few.

All of these common technologies that support our business have contributed to our development of a digitally integrated private cloud payments hub.

Not only does the digital integrated payments cloud process transactions, it is supported by a wide array of other digital elements, including card issuing, physical and virtual, loyalty, KYC compliance, real-time settlement, inventory, risk and fraud management and so many more.

So we will continue to process cash-based transactions.

Well, we do well more than that.

If you look at our business, you can see that we process an increasing number of digital transactions.

And this new digital integrated payments cloud allows us to process all types of digital payment using technology beyond the standard data card -- or card data element.

It is not enough to have a transaction processing platform.

You have to have support -- a supporting cast with all these other features, and that is why our new solution is unique.

We expect that the traditional and digital payments landscape will continue to coexist for quite some time, and we've positioned ourselves to participate in both universes through our unique digital payments cloud architecture.

Next slide, please, Slide #18.

At the heart of our new digital integrated payments cloud is a solution we call Ren.

It has a state-of-the-art agnostic design that runs on commodity hardware, is open to any operating system, is cloud-ready and easily scalable.

It has open APIs.

And because we use it actively in our production, there is a focus on industry standards and an attention to detail that you don't get from third parties who just develop and sell software.

Remember, we have $115 billion in payments riding on our systems.

Ren also has near 100% availability.

This is possible because Ren creates a logical data center, using private cloud technology that allows it to be simultaneously deployed across multiple physical locations.

Due to its fault tolerant cloud architecture, it is superior to standard, active, passive and active, active designs.

As any microserver in any data center can be replaced by different resources across the physical boundaries in real time, this allows us to perform maintenance or patch management without impact to our transaction processing or the need reroute traffic.

And Ren is fast.

With linear performance scale-out ability and low cost for hardware, it allows for real-time settlement.

And to top it all off, all this throughput was clocked by a third party at 15,000 transactions per second, with even more upside.

Simply amazing, and you can look at that little graph in the corner and you can see our linear progression of performance.

The software is also designed to process any data, not just a payment transaction, eliminating the need to run multiple platforms in the back office.

Our digital integrated payments cloud is a powerful tool that allows us to utilize our assets in a more efficient manner for our internal use, but also allows us to quickly deliver unique and creative solutions for our business partners through the use of our feature-rich open API capability.

With all of that, you can see that our double-digit growth rates are a result of intentional and strategic investment over the prior years that allow us to take advantage of every opportunity the market presents.

With that background, I'd like to spend some time giving you a better, more informed view of the market opportunities that we see in each of our segments.

So preceding our comments on each segment, I will give you an overview of the significance of the market in which we operate.

Let's start with Slide #22 and EFT.

I am always talking about the enormity of the ATM deployment opportunities we see, so we thought we'd give you some data that supports these numbers.

Currently, based on available data from the World Bank, we estimate that if every country in the world were to reach the ATM saturation levels of the United States, total ATMs deployed around the world would reach approximately 13 million ATM machines.

We estimate that of those 13 million machines, only 35% of them are currently installed, leaving a market opportunity more than double what exists today.

We understand that some developing countries may never reach the full saturation of the U.S., but even if half the ATMs are installed, the global installed ATM base could double from what it is today.

Currently, of the total market of a potential of 13 million ATMs, a little over 3 million devices are currently on the ground in markets where Euronet has a presence or that may be in our expansion pipeline.

And more than 5 million ATMs could be installed in these same markets to reach full saturation.

Given that right now, we only own and operate a little more than 43,000 machines, you can see that there is more than enough room for us to continue to deploy 3,500 to 4,000 ATMs per year.

And as a reminder, the world ATM market is not static.

And in many markets, bank branches and the ATMs at those branches are closing due to the financial condition of many banks, leaving even more opportunity for an independent deployer like Euronet.

We have also been talking to you about the outsourcing opportunities we are seeing around the world.

We estimate that about 60% of the ATMs in the U.S. are currently outsourced, while well less than 5% of the ATMs outside the U.S. are outsourced.

If the average outsourced ATM produces between $200 and $400 profit per month, the annual world outsourcing opportunity for Euronet could reach close to $11 billion annually.

So as you can see, we are confident in our ability to continue to grow our EFT business through both additional ATM deployment and new outsourcing opportunities.

Now let's move on to Slide #23, and we can talk about the specific highlights of this quarter.

Our EFT teams -- Slide 23.

Our EFT teams can understand the tremendous market opportunity, and they continue to deliver new agreements.

During the quarter, we launched ATM outsourcing for Piraeus Bank in Romania.

We signed new ATM deployment agreements with 10 airports across 5 countries.

And finally, we renewed our agreement with Tesco in Ireland as well as several key agreements, including our brown-label agreement with HDFC Bank in India.

Next slide, please.

Slide 24.

While the market to add more ATMs is huge, it is also important that we continue to add more products and services to keep the ATMs and the POS terminals relevant with the ever-changing technology.

This quarter, we launched cardless deposit using BLIK cardless scheme at -- on ATM recyclers and deposit machines of Pekao Bank, the second largest bank in Poland.

This agreement will complement the 8 million cardless BLIK transactions we're currently processing in Poland.

It is also interesting to note that approximately 90% of our Euronet ATMs deployed in Europe are equipped with cardless transaction capability, which allows for faster and more convenient transactions for customers who want to use their contactless cards or mobile phones for the withdrawals or deposits.

We also launched MasterCard contactless POS acquiring, EMV acquiring for China UnionPay and Visa Paywave issuing for Seylan Bank in Sri Lanka.

Finally, we signed an agreement with the Central Bank of Mozambique -- you might have seen a press release on that here recently -- to connect their 11 banks to a new national payments network solution, using our digitally integrated payments cloud.

Euronet's solution will support transaction processing, services, connections to major card organizations, ATM and POS sales, device driving, card issuing, and an extensive collection of services, including mobile recharge, bill payment and digital wallet, using either historical methods or the new emerging alternative payment technologies.

Next slide, please.

Slide 25.

Before we wrap up the quarter, I'd like to provide you with an update on the new DCC regulations in Europe.

The final version of the proposed regulation was approved in the trialogue meeting on December 11, 2018, meaning the EU Commission, the EU Council and the [repertory] of the EU Parliament have all agreed on the final text of the proposed legislation.

The next step is for full EU Parliament to approve the final text in a plenary session, which is expected to occur in February or March of this year.

Following this approval, the final text must be approved by the finance ministers of each country, which is expected in March or April of 2019.

Once approved by the finance ministers, the new regulation will be translated into all official EU languages and published in the official journal, which is expected in May or June of 2019.

The legislation will become effective 12 months after the publication in the official Journal.

The focus of the new regulation is on transparency of foreign exchange margins over the European Central Bank rate and does not include any cap on DCC charges.

The final text also includes the following terms.

Both DCC providers and card issuers will be required to disclose their currency conversion charges as a percent markup over the latest available euro foreign exchange reference rate issued by the ECB.

Although the issuer will be required to make the disclosure after the transaction, not there at the ATM, and will not be required to provide dual presentation on the ATM.

This is a new requirement, and we will implement this on our ATMs.

As we do today, DCC providers must disclose to the cardholder the amount to be paid in local currency and the amount to be paid in the currency of the cardholder's account, no change there.

DCC providers and card issuers will be required to make their currency conversion charges publicly available in an easily accessible electronic platform to facilitate the development of the -- of price comparison websites for customers when traveling or shopping within 2 years from that May date.

Within 2 years after the legislation is effective, card issuers will be required to notify their cardholders about applicable currency conversion charges when their card is used to make a payment in another currency through the use of electronic communication channels.

While predicting the future is difficult, we don't anticipate that this new regulation will have a material impact on Euronet's earnings, when it comes into effect in 2020.

And it's important to note that we continue to see positive development within the EFT business.

You may remember that in mid-April 2019, this year, in a couple of months, Visa will allow DCC globally.

We are also beginning to see more and more regulators around the world allow for international and domestic surcharge.

Recently, 3 Euronet markets have begun to allow full domestic surcharge, and we think there could be several more coming, although we have no information on timing.

So all in all, we are happy with the outcome of the new DCC regulation and are excited about the opportunities that lay ahead, both in Europe and around the world.

Now let's talk about ATM deployments for the quarter.

We finished the quarter with 40,354 active ATMs, a 9% increase over the prior year.

And during the quarter, we added nearly 1,400 high-value ATMs, while we winterized almost 3,000 ATMs, following the peak season.

Low-margin ATMs remained relatively consistent.

For the full year, we deployed more than 3,800 ATMs, plus the 400 that we acquired with Easycash in Ireland, well ahead of our goal to deploy 3,500 ATMs in 2018.

Given the market opportunity we mentioned earlier, we clearly believe we can deploy between 3,500 and 4,000 high-value machines in 2019.

With double-digit growth across all metrics, it was another outstanding year for the EFT team.

And with 3,800 new ATMs already in our portfolio and many new global market opportunities, 2019 is set up to be another great year.

So let's move now to Slide #29, and we'll talk about epay.

When trying to define the addressable market for epay, it is hard to find supportable statistics that show how much of total spend is on nonmobile, is from customers that are buying directly from the brand versus those purchasing content at a retail store or through an online merchant.

However, what we know is that the total market for nonmobile content is huge, reaching more than $1 trillion and growing at a rapid pace.

Additionally, many products are still undergoing a shift from physical distribution -- as a physical product like a CD-ROM to a digital product through physical -- through a physical retail point to a digital product through its digital channel.

For all -- for those of you that have been with us for a while, you may recall the significant opportunities that we were afforded by shifts in the mobile top-up market from scratch cards to point-of-sale activation.

Essentially, we're seeing the same type of shift to digital with these historically physical products.

As this digital transformation continues, epay is perfectly positioned to capture market share as customers seek the convenience of these alternative form factors over new channels.

As you may remember, several years ago, epay's business was 100% mobile top-up.

We had 0 nonmobile content.

Today, nonmobile or digital content accounts for more than 2/3 of epay's total gross profit.

On a 606 equivalent pro forma basis, epay grew by 11%.

We are confident that we can continue to capture market share over our existing connections using our superior technology to create a competitive advantage for our brand and retail partners.

So let's move on to Slide 30, and we will talk about epay's specific highlights for the quarter.

Slide 30.

Epay continued to execute its strategy to add more nonmobile content, more retailers and more markets across more channels.

And the success of this continued focus is evident in the double-digit growth rates in the seasonally strongest fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, epay launched digital content and alternative payment across both physical and digital retail outlets.

In particular, we launched several new products across Europe, including Nintendo Switch gift card, EA Origin Access Pass subscription gift card and Adidas gift card.

In Germany, we launched a digital gift card mall on the amazon.de website, including iTunes, Google, Netflix and Spotify content.

In Germany, we also expanded our Netflix gift card distribution to MediaMarkt, the largest electronics retailer in Germany.

Finally, in Australia, we expanded our partnership with Alipay, and launched Alipay alternative payment with Louis Vuitton luxury brand retailers and Commonwealth Bank.

Next slide, please.

Slide 31.

So in addition to these launches, we also signed several new agreements.

In Europe, we signed an agreement to distribute Nintendo digital codes through Amazon in France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. In Saudi Arabia, we signed an agreement to distribute Google Play.

Finally, we renewed our agreement with REWE Group, the second largest grocery retailer with 8,800 locations across Germany.

This agreement secures our partnership with REWE for another 3.5 additional years and includes expanded product distribution.

It bears repeating that this was a great fourth quarter for epay, where we achieved double-digit growth rates across all metrics.

Now let's move on to Slide #35, and we'll talk about Money Transfer for a bit.

Okay, Slide 35.

Last quarter, we gave you a detailed overview of the money remittance market, and why Ria has been so successful in growing their market share.

As you may remember, the big 3 global players, Western Union, MoneyGram and Ria, only account for approximately 25% of the total market.

UAE Exchange, which is largely a Middle East regional player, accounts for another 6%.

And all of the digital-only players account for in total approximately 5%.

That leaves 2/3 of the total market addressed by small, independent players or completely unaddressed.

And as we explained last quarter, Ria is perfectly positioned to grow in this under addressed base because that is where we started and we have developed the sales and compliance infrastructure to effectively meet the needs of the customers in this space.

The other growing area in money transfer includes digital.

By using available data and some testament, we estimate that the digitally initiated transfers only account for approximately 7% of the total money sent annually.

So the lion's share is still acquired at a physical agent location.

We do recognize that the industry will likely go through shifts although we believe at a slower pace than within the rest of the payment space due to the nature of the customer.

These senders are largely immigrants, coming from lesser developed economies, who have always managed their finances in cash.

So while we have made large investments in our digital product and we have seen great customer adoption, we believe it is still important to recognize the significance of the opportunities within the physical Money Transfer channel.

Now let's move on to Slide #36 and we will discuss the quarter-specific highlights.

Slide 36.

Our Money Transfer segment continued to hit on all cylinders, very proud of them, delivering exceptional results across all regions of the business.

Our Money Transfer network now reaches 369,000 locations across 150 countries.

During the quarter, we launched 18 new correspondents in 15 countries, including outbound service with Sikhona Forex in South Africa.

This is a new country in the Ria Fin network and Sikhona's customers in South Africa can pay for their transactions at a number of local retailers, including Massmart, which is a subsidiary of Walmart.

We also signed agreements with 22 correspondents across 19 countries.

In the fourth quarter, we expanded our network into Argentina by opening the first Ria store in that country.

We also signed a new partnership agreement with Bimedia in France to introduce live and staged transactions in over 700 locations that use Bimedia's POS solutions.

And we partnered with Banca5 in Italy to offer money transfer services through its distribution channel.

Next slide, please.

Our success -- 37.

Our success did not end with the physical network.

Digital transactions accounted for 58% of our total international outbound volumes for the year, defined by using the standard industry definition of a transfer initiated or terminated in a digital fashion.

Our riamoneytransfer.com transactions grew 55% in the fourth quarter and 47% for the full year.

During the quarter, we successfully launched a new redesigned XE Money Transfer app and have successfully completed the rebranding of our international payments business under the XE brand.

This was an outstanding year for the Money Transfer business.

Now let's move on to Slide #38, and we'll wrap up for the quarter.

Well, we finished the year strong with an adjusted EPS of $1.37 for the fourth quarter and a 21% year-over-year increase.

EFT's outstanding 20% year-over-year adjusted operating income growth was a result of continued network and value-added transaction expansion across our market.

Epay's double-digit full year pro forma revenue and adjusted operating income growth is a result of their continued focus on nonmobile content expansion.

Money Transfer had an exceptional year, where all areas of the business contributed to a strong double-digit growth across all metrics.

Technology investments focused on digital-based commerce and transactions is playing a leading role in the growth across Euronet's product portfolio to address huge addressable markets for all 3 segments.

Our balance sheet continues to strengthen as we continue to produce strong cash flows from operations.

And finally, we expect first quarter adjusted EPS to be approximately $0.83, assuming consistent foreign exchange rates and share price.

With that, we'll be happy to take questions.

Operator, will you please assist?

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mike Grondahl with Northland Securities.

When you think about Visa and some of this new surcharge opportunity, is there any high-level way to kind of say what that adds to the TAM for ATM deployment?

Well, I mean the reality is, in Europe, we've already given you that number.

We think this year, across our estate, it's probably worth an additional $0.60 to $0.65.

But what's exciting is -- I'm talking about the Visa piece.

But what's exciting is Visa also opens up the rest of the world to us, and that TAM is huge.

So we'll just kind of leave it at that, and we will be making announcements as we go into more and more new countries.

On the surcharge side, as everyone might remember, I've been preaching this for 5 years.

There is no logical reason for banks to continue to not allow surcharge in their countries because they find themselves, especially the bricks-and-mortar banks, the biggest issuers, they find themselves competing with internet banks and giving away their ATM transactions for less than it costs them to produce them.

So finally, common sense has started to permeate a number of these countries.

We've seen this happen.

It was Germany first.

We've got Spain second, Austria was third, and now it looks like Greece is going that way.

So I would imagine that at some point out in the future, surcharge would be allowed across most every European country, which offers both more money that you could make off the domestic -- our domestic customers as well as international customers.

So it's just interesting because that -- I don't know if you call it, the TAM gets bigger, but the money you can make off the TAM gets bigger.

And, Mike, I would say if you look at some of the graphs, the charts that we've provided in there, and you think of it in context of the United States, where a surcharge is available, you can see that consumers clearly are willing to pay for convenience.

And when that opportunity then presents itself, you'll see more ATMs deployed.

So in doing some of this kind of market sizing map, if you reach penetration levels similar to the United States, it essentially increases by twofold, what that addressable market is out there.

And again, as Mike said earlier in his comments, we've only got 43,000 out of these millions and millions of ATMs.

So a very rich set of opportunities for us, even before you get to a surcharge.

But then you put that on top of it, and it makes it that much more.

Yes, like a double tailwind.

Gives us a very long runway.

[You and price.] And then real quick, U.S. to Latin America for Money Transfer, how was that?

Can you just talk a little bit about that big channel for you?

Well, I mean, you saw the Money -- I mean, U.S. to Latin America is about 40-some percent of our business.

And you saw that Money Transfer just basically knocked it out of the park.

So Obviously, it -- that would've happened if half of your business wasn't doing well.

We're doing really well from America southbound.

We're doing really well from Europe, every direction bound.

Our next question comes from Chris Shutler with William Blair.

So an update, Mike, on outsourcing and network participation agreements in the pipeline, if you don't mind providing that.

And maybe give us a sense how much revenue is in the pipeline that has been signed, but not installed.

Okay.

So with respect to outsourcing agreements, we're still in discussion phases with several pretty large opportunities and many little ones as well.

As far as how much revenue, we really -- historically, these are binary deals.

So we're either going to get them or we're not.

And so we don't really project until we get the deal.

We probably have about 500-or-so ATMs in the pipeline to be installed, but that's all right now.

So as we get these deals, we'll announce them.

And these are very high-margin deals.

So they almost change our earnings with a step function.

And the cool part is this is not just where -- we originally just had these outsourcing deals mainly in Europe, a little bit in Asia.

The reality is these outsourcing deals are coming from everywhere now.

These banks are taking a hard look at their expenses.

They have old technology running these things, very high cost of ownership, very high cost to run them, and we're the perfect logical solution for them to be -- and on top of that, our outsourcing -- if we outsource, we can connect those ATMs to the digital channel and that's something that current technology has a real problem.

And let's not forget too that we wouldn't call this exactly an outsourcing deal, it's kind of a software/outsourcing deal.

But this deal in Mozambique is huge.

So that's another deal we've got to light up this year.

We got to connect 11 banks.

And so lots of good stuff in the pipe.

Our next question comes from Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust.

Mike, appreciate you laying out the size of the global EFT opportunity.

Can you talk a little bit about sort of how you balance the resource requirements in expansion against that TAM?

I mean adding 3,800 to 4,000 machines a year is great, but you've got this huge market and...

But we'd love that number to be bigger.

Yes, I know.

It's freaking huge, isn't it?

Okay, but at the end of the day, to go after that market, the easiest way, of course, is with outsourcing deals, because you don't have to do any site collection.

But it took us 5 years to get a staff up to the point where we could put in almost 4,000 ATMs, handpicked one by one in a year.

So as we go around the rest of the world, it'll take us some time to build up the staff.

But boy, we know how to do it.

And that's the thing.

So what we're just doing is taking what we've learned in Europe, and we're going to export that to other markets.

So you're right.

In a couple years, if all we're doing is 4,000, I'm going to be disappointed.

But I don't want to overcommit at this point in time.

It's all about location, location, location.

You've got to pick that really good site because these ATMs are costing you $1,000 a month to have them planted in this particular spot, and you don't want to miss too often.

And as we've said for years, this is just plain old hard work.

I mean, every location is a separately selected site and agreement -- by us, an agreement that has to be negotiated, a box that has to be bolted down and cash put into it.

And so it's a huge market opportunity but that's what we have historically done well in across all of these countries.

Remember, there are always -- this is not just like one team goes across to all these different cultures.

It's separate teams, it's day-to-day, plain old hand-to-hand hard work.

Does that tilt maybe the emphasis a little bit toward these bigger outsourcing or interbank switch deals?

The nice thing is we can do them both at the same time.

It's a different -- you got to build up a -- basically feet on the -- boots on the ground kind of staff to go find these locations one by one.

And that's a different -- it's a different kind of sales guy than the guy who's going to go into a bank and say, "Hey, trust me, with your ATM distribution channel, look at all that we did or what we can do for you." It's a different group.

It's not an either or at all.

Got it.

And if I may on epay, how do we think about that business?

Obviously, the accounting change muted the reported growth.

I mean, is this a double-digit revenue growth business going forward?

Well, take a look at that -- those double digits, baby, we are excited.

I mean epay has been working really hard, gets one little product at a time, one channel, one product, one market, one at a time.

And it's been adding these things up, and we've been announcing them quarter after quarter after quarter.

And the nice thing is that nonmobile content is a freaking trillion-dollar industry.

And so we keep lighting up more of it, and it's making up for the fact that -- the other nice thing, I guess you could say is that mobile has finally began to decline less than double digits.

So you've got the 2 of them working in tandem to give us that very good result for epay.

And I would add to that, that as you take a look at the brands that we are helping facilitate, essentially, e-commerce for, okay?

That these brands are demanding partners and they have found that we have technology solutions that help them and help them to get into more and more of these markets that we have the expertise in.

And so this is a combination of both, a, the market; but, b, the technological advantages that we bring to it.

So whether we're talking about guys like Amazon or Netflix, these are really high-class brands that are demanding in the delivery of their product, the protection of their brand, the execution, et cetera.

And so it's a combination again of both the market as well as our technology and these brands' interest to get closer and closer to what I might call the cash-based customer that wants to do e-commerce transactions.

So we're right in the middle of a perfect amount of energy generating around this space.

Our next question comes from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

Just on the DCC regulation.

It seems like the risk there is pretty de minimis at this point, but can you maybe just do 2 things.

First of all, clarify that there is no requirement likely for the rate to be displayed relative to the local exchange rate at the time or prior to the transaction.

And number two, can you maybe just kind of talk about your confidence in the timing for the DCC enablement by Visa in April, you talked about before.

Okay, so you got the first -- with respect to your first question, you've got that a little bit wrong.

What the regulation says is that we would have to show -- this would probably be mid-ish-2020.

We'd have to show an ECB rate and our rate.

So people could see.

But the nice thing is people know they're never going to get the ECB rate.

So that's what's changed.

And there is no cap on it.

And we've done testing in the market where we have presented 2 customers a range of spreads that go from mid-single digits to low double-digit spreads and we have not seen meaningful decreases in the consumers opting into that when we have done our testing.

So we will show an EB -- ECB reference rate and then what our rate would be.

What that percentage is.

And as we said in our notes, we don't think that, that's going to drive a material difference in the market.

What you may have got confused on is that the customer will have -- still have no idea what his bank will charge him.

Yes.

The local -- the -- his issuing bank will not be presented side-by-side with us.

Yes.

The only way you'll ever know how much you get charged and what the rate was is when you get home and look at your statement.

Got it.

That's clear.

And then...

I forgot your second question.

Yes, about your certainty around Visa enabling DCC in April.

So far, so good.

It's actually a very simple change for us in Europe because we are -- actually do Visa DCC in Europe.

And so we're -- we'll just say so far, so good.

Yes.

I mean our level of work is simply the addition of a few more bins to the table that we reference in our system.

And Visa has represented to us that they wouldn't have made the announcement if they weren't ready to deliver.

And let's not forget Visa makes a lot of money on these transactions so they've got a financial incentive to be on time.

Very good.

And then maybe as a follow-up, I wanted to ask you, I mean, clearly, epay execution is very, very good as you mentioned with the new products and the nonmobile momentum you have there.

Is kind of a double-digit 10% growth rate a new normal that we can expect to -- you to sustain in 2019?

And if not, any reason why not?

Well, we did -- for prior years, we have been in that kind of 7-ish, 7%, 8% range, and now it's great that we've popped over into double digits.

We would hope that this is the new normal, but I can't tell you for sure that.

Let's let this go a little bit longer and then I'll maybe have a little bit more confidence.

But all the factors are pointing the right way.

Our next question is a follow-up from Chris Shutler with William Blair.

Rick, just one quick follow-up on the tax rate and the cash tax rate on the Q1 guide, and if you could maybe talk about the tax rate that you're expecting for full year 2019?

And then anything one time in the first quarter guidance?

Nothing one time in the first quarter.

As we said in there, the more and more ATMs that we put in, it puts a little bit more pressure on that EFT segment.

So -- but that -- that's all baked into the math, so no one timer's in there.

Our tax rate for both the quarter and the full year, we would put in the mid-20s range.

Last year, we started out with a little higher rate in the first quarter because of the new Tax Act and then, some of those positions were clarified through technical interpretations, et cetera.

So we expect to see a little more consistency as we go throughout this year in about that mid-20s range.

That's what we have in the first quarter as well.

Yes.

And I might also add to that, Chris, you've been following us for a while but some people are a little bit newer.

I mean, obviously, we have seasonality and you see the big kick-up in revenues and profits in the EFT division in the second and third quarters.

But what people might forget is that we have to pay for those ATMs in the first quarter.

So yes, we can winterize them, but we still have depreciation, we still have rent, we still have a lot of other costs associated with them.

So what that means is the bigger we grow our estate, kind of the uglier Q1 gets.

With respect to the drag of those ATMs that are very profitable for the year, but not so profitable, maybe even losing a little bit of money in the first quarter.

So just kind of an FYI.

Yes, understood.

And lastly, Mike, can you give us an update on, you talked about folding HiFX into the XE brand.

Just how -- what kind of trends you're seeing underneath the covers in that business?

Number of site visitors, conversion rates to do a transfer, et cetera?

Well, since we've released -- okay, so we rebranded.

And since we've now rebranded and released a brand-new app for doing transactions under the XE brand for HiFX -- you might say, HiFX customer -- we've seen higher conversion rates.

We've seen really good adoption.

Still more work to be done, but, boy, the first new customers, converting, and all that, all the numbers, the kind of the metrics that you look at on digital acquisition of customers and transactions have all been pointing in the right direction.

I mean the reality is HiFX, a lot of people knew that who were spending money, but the XE brand is known by hundreds of millions of people so it's just helped.

Our last question comes from Rayna Kumar with Evercore ISI.

Can you help us better understand your 2019 outlook for constant currency revenue growth across EFT, Money Transfer?

And I know you addressed epay, but at least the other 2 segments would be helpful.

Rayna, seems like this question comes up about every year there.

But if we take a look at our business here, we continue to feel confident in the ability to grow the EFT and deploy ATMs.

This -- that business grew in the 20s and has grown that way for the last several years.

So we would again believe that we are going to have strong double-digit growth out of that business.

Clearly, the addition to the Visa DCC gives us yet more momentum.

And as Mike said, with us seeing a little bit more activity on the surcharge front, that hopefully manifests itself into some stronger numbers for us and more ATM locations to deploy.

So we would continue to feel pretty good about strong double-digit growth rates out of that business.

Then as you go to the Money Transfer business, we've consistently performed in that, let's call it, mid-to-upper teen level and we don't see any reason that we won't continue to do that.

As Mike said, rebranding HiFX into the XE gives us more momentum on those customer conversions.

It's a big huge market, and the market is also growing.

The World Bank just reported that '18 over '17 grew something like 10%.

And so those numbers are good growth.

We continue to have a lot of additional network expansion that's available out there to us.

So again, we would feel again pretty comfortable that we'll be in that, let's call it, mid-teens kind of rate there for Money Transfer.

And then finally, with epay, it's probably a little bit more of the potential wildcard, I think, on the upside.

We continue to see the confidence of this nonmobile product come into our portfolio.

We've got more markets that we are taking it to out there.

We've got more technical solutions that we're providing.

We're helping brands do things like scheduled payments or advanced payments on annual subscriptions and things like that.

Those are all just kind of like baked in recurring run rate transactions for us.

So I want to say that we would expect to be in the double-digit range there, but I'd probably push it to the upper side of the singles to the lower side of doubles there.

We -- and we might see breakout this year of that.

So you kind of put all that together, as Mike said, all of our businesses are doing well and we don't see any particular matter on the horizon that should cause us to think differently at this point.

That's very helpful detail.

Just as a follow-up, how much of that strong Money Transfer top line growth is -- how much of that is coming from share gains from MoneyGram, given their more stringent compliance in place?

And then secondly, what are you seeing out there for cross-border Money Transfer pricing?

And your outlook for 2019?

Well, we haven't seen much difference in the pricing numbers there.

As I said, actually, we saw a little bit of increase in our average revenue per transaction.

So while we always see areas within the Money Transfer that can be more and more competitive on pricing and things like that, our team does a great job at being able to focus its business on transactions that make good money and it's proven in the numbers.

As it relates to taking share from the competitors, it's hard for us to tell exactly where the numbers come from there.

But as we said last quarter and we reviewed and even in this pie chart here where you can see the part that's really that kind of unaddressed independent channel, we have a lot more of our business focused on that part of the market.

And I'd say, that's where we've probably seen most of our successes.

I'm sure that we've picked up some benefits from the challenges that some of our competitors have, but I think that our success has more to do with our story and less to do with their story, right?

Okay.

I think -- with that, I think we're going to end.

Is that correct, operator?

Yes, sir, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session.

Okay.

All right.

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

We look forward to talking to you at the end of the first quarter.

Mike, Rick and Kevin signing out.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

This does conclude today's program, and you may all disconnect.

Everyone, have a great day.