Ecopetrol SA (EC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Juan and I'll be your operator for today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's Earnings Conference Call in which we will discuss the main financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2022.

早上好。我的名字是胡安，今天我將擔任您的接線員。歡迎參加 Ecopetrol 的收益電話會議，我們將在電話會議中討論 2022 年第三季度的主要財務和運營業績。

Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol's senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call.

在我們開始之前，重要的是要提到 Ecopetrol 高級管理層在本次電話會議中的評論包括對公司未來業績的預測。這些預測不構成對未來結果的任何承諾，也不考慮可能實現的風險或不確定性。因此，如果未來結果與本次電話會議上分享的預測不同，Ecopetrol 不承擔任何責任。

This call will be led by Mr. Felipe Bayon, CEO of Ecopetrol; Yeimy Baez, VP of Low Emission Solutions; Alberto Consuegra, COO; and Jaime Caballero, CFO. Thank you for your attention.

本次電話會議將由 Ecopetrol 首席執行官 Felipe Bayon 先生主持； Yeimy Baez，低排放解決方案副總裁；阿爾貝托·康蘇埃格拉，首席運營官；和首席財務官 Jaime Caballero。感謝您的關注。

Mr. Bayon, you may begin your conference.

Bayon 先生，你可以開始你的會議了。

Good morning and welcome to the third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. The Ecopetrol group continues to deliver solid operating and strategic results that are joined up by a successful commercial strategy and a disciplined financial management in a year in which we have delivered historical results.

早上好，歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 Ecopetrol 集團繼續提供穩健的運營和戰略成果，在我們取得歷史成果的一年中，成功的商業戰略和嚴謹的財務管理將其結合在一起。

Firstly, I want to thank more than 18,000 direct employees of Ecopetrol and as well as our allies and contractors and partners who jointly look to make the impossible possible for the benefit of millions of Colombians and those in the areas in which we operate.

首先，我要感謝 Ecopetrol 的 18,000 多名直接員工以及我們的盟友、承包商和合作夥伴，他們共同致力於為數百萬哥倫比亞人和我們經營所在地區的人們的利益而努力使不可能成為可能。

In the first 9 months of the year, we achieved a net income of COP26.6 trillion and an EBITDA of COP59.2 trillion, which equates to an EBITDA margin of 50%. The net income for these 9 months is 59% higher than the whole 2021 net income and 150% higher than the one observed for the same period in the last year.

今年前 9 個月，我們實現了 26.6 萬億韓元的淨收入和 59.2 萬億韓元的 EBITDA，相當於 50% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。這 9 個月的淨收入比 2021 年全年淨收入高出 59%，比去年同期觀察到的淨收入高出 150%。

From this quarter's results, I would like to highlight the following milestones. The gas discoveries in the Caribbean in the Gorgon-2 in which we partner with Shell and Shell as the operator and the Uchuva-1 well with Petrobras, the operator, both exploratory wells and the announcement by our subsidiary Hocol the successful drilling of the Coralino-1 well proven the presence of gas in a structure close to the Arrecife discovery in the Department of Cordoba. All this is to reiterate Colombia's potential for gas, the hydrocarbon of the energy transition.

從本季度的結果來看，我想強調以下里程碑。在加勒比地區的 Gorgon-2 天然氣發現中，我們與作為運營商的殼牌和殼牌公司以及與運營商 Petrobras 的 Uchuva-1 井合作，這兩個探井以及我們的子公司 Hocol 宣布成功鑽探 Coralino -1 很好地證明了在靠近科爾多瓦省 Arrecife 發現的構造中存在氣體。所有這一切都是為了重申哥倫比亞的天然氣潛力，這是能源轉型的碳氫化合物。

The growth path in our production levels in accordance with the strategy outlined and announced at the beginning of the year. The average production in 3Q was 720,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and so far this year we have an average of 706,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day due to the increase of our execution capacity, which has improved the performance of the fields in Colombia and our growing unconventional operations in the U.S. in the Permian.

我們的生產水平的增長路徑符合年初概述和宣布的戰略。三季度日均產量為 720,000 桶油當量，今年至今日均產量為 706,000 桶油當量，原因是我們執行能力的提高，從而改善了哥倫比亞油田和我們在美國二疊紀不斷增長的非常規業務。

The increase in the capacity of more than 50,000 barrels per day at the Cartagena refinery. Thanks to the successful start-up of the interconnection of crude oil plants IPCC project taking a firm step to guarantee the supply of fuels and Colombia's energy sovereignty.

卡塔赫納煉油廠每天的產能增加了 50,000 多桶。得益於原油工廠互聯互通的成功啟動，IPCC項目為保障燃料供應和哥倫比亞的能源主權邁出了堅實的一步。

Completion of the pilot test for the production of green hydrogen at the Cartagena refinery. This project is part of Ecopetrol's strategic hydrogen plant within the framework of its low carbon emissions business portfolio, which we expect will contribute to our operations decarbonization goals as well as those of Colombia.

完成在卡塔赫納煉油廠生產綠色氫氣的中試。該項目是 Ecopetrol 在其低碳排放業務組合框架內的戰略氫工廠的一部分，我們預計這將有助於實現我們和哥倫比亞的運營脫碳目標。

Let's please turn to the next slide to address issues in line with our TESG Strategy. During the first 9 months of the year, we have made significant achievements in our TESG Strategy. On the environmental front, I would like to highlight our progress in decarbonization circular economy and natural climate solutions reflected in the following and 87% fulfillment of the annual emissions reduction goal, accumulating a reduction of 229,317 tons of CO2 equivalent so far in the year.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片來解決符合我們的 TESG 戰略的問題。今年前 9 個月，我們在 TESG 戰略方面取得了重大成就。在環境方面，我想強調我們在脫碳循環經濟和自然氣候解決方案方面取得的進展，體現在以下方面，全年減排目標完成率達到 87%，全年累計減少二氧化碳當量 229,317 噸。

The result of our energy efficiency program as of 3Q 2022 has led to a savings of COP97 billion and avoided the emission of 98,000 tons of CO2 equivalent. The inauguration jointly with El Dorado Airport in Bogota of the first road segment in Colombia paved with asphalt and recycled plastic, low density polyethylene in favor of the protection of the environment and waste reuse.

截至 2022 年第三季度，我們的能源效率計劃已節省 970 億 COP 並避免排放 98,000 噸二氧化碳當量。與波哥大埃爾多拉多機場聯合啟用哥倫比亞第一條路段，鋪設瀝青和再生塑料、低密度聚乙烯，有利於保護環境和廢物再利用。

On the social front, we continue to work for the sustainable development of the communities in the territories in which we operate. The ceremony in where we awarded scholarships for university or higher education to 65 high schoolers through the Bachilleres Ecopetrol program, thanks to which we have now benefitted more than 1,600 young Colombians from 32 departments in the country over the initial 36 years of the program's existence.

在社會方面，我們繼續為我們經營所在地區的社區的可持續發展而努力。我們通過 Bachilleres Ecopetrol 計劃向 65 名高中生頒發大學或高等教育獎學金的儀式，在該計劃實施的最初 36 年裡，我們現在已經使來自該國 32 個部門的 1,600 多名哥倫比亞年輕人受益。

The contracting of goods and services for COP17.6 trillion during 2022 by the Ecopetrol Group contributing to the economic and social development in different regions. The results achieved in the ranking of the most diverse and inclusive companies of the National Consulting Center, where we obtained third place.

Ecopetrol 集團在 2022 年期間為不同地區的經濟和社會發展做出貢獻的貨物和服務承包 17.6 萬億 COP。在國家諮詢中心最具多元化和包容性公司排名中取得的成績，我們獲得了第三名。

On the Corporate Governance front, Ecopetrol was awarded with the ANDESCO Sustainability Award for having best practices in corporate governance 2022 environment. Additionally, I would like to highlight the balance of our second Extraordinary General Shareholders' Meeting in which we have 305 and 85 retail shareholders. We reached 1,096 connections in our live transmission our shareholders elected the Board of Directors, which now is formed by 2 and 7 and 7 and 2 non -independent members.

在公司治理方面，Ecopetrol 因其在公司治理 2022 環境中的最佳實踐而獲得 ANDESCO 可持續發展獎。此外，我想強調我們有 305 名和 85 名散戶股東的第二次臨時股東大會的餘額。我們在直播中達到了 1,096 個連接，我們的股東選舉了董事會，現在由 2 和 7 以及 7 和 2 名非獨立成員組成。

In strict compliance with the company's bylaws, the Board is composed of 1 member nominated by the representatives of the minority shareholders who was re-elected; 3 elected members who continue in office; 1 Board member nominated by the hydrocarbon producing departments in which Ecopetrol has a presence and was elected; and 4 new Board members.

嚴格遵守公司章程，董事會由1名由連任的中小股東代表提名的成員組成； 3名當選成員繼續任職； 1 名由 Ecopetrol 所在的碳氫化合物生產部門提名並當選的董事會成員；和 4 名新的董事會成員。

The members of the Board of Directors of Ecopetrol have extensive experience and broad technical, financial and business knowledge, which supports the role as a strategic advisor to the Ecopetrol Group.

Ecopetrol 董事會成員擁有豐富的經驗和廣泛的技術、財務和商業知識，這支持了作為 Ecopetrol 集團戰略顧問的角色。

Finally, on the Science Technology and Innovation front. As of 3Q 2022 we have been able to capture benefits for $136 million mainly due to the results obtained by the business technologies and digital solutions implemented in Ecopetrol and CENIT, amongst others.

最後，在科學技術和創新方面。截至 2022 年第三季度，我們已經能夠獲得 1.36 億美元的收益，這主要歸功於在 Ecopetrol 和 CENIT 等中實施的業務技術和數字解決方案所取得的成果。

We advanced the first awarding phase of the Innovatia-2022 contest, a program that allocated COP720 million to promote the energy transition and innovation in the country. We signed a joint declaration with the representation of the State of Bayern of Germany in South America to strengthen our bilateral cooperation focused on intensifying the bilateral exchange of knowledge, innovation and technology for sustainable development and the energy transition.

我們推進了 Innovatia-2022 競賽的第一個頒獎階段，該計劃撥款 7.2 億 COP 以促進該國的能源轉型和創新。我們與德國拜仁州駐南美代表簽署了一項聯合聲明，以加強雙邊合作，重點加強雙邊知識、創新和技術交流，以促進可持續發展和能源轉型。

I want to now pass the floor to Yeimy Baez, who will talk to you about the main advances in the business segment of Low Emission Solutions.

現在我想請 Yeimy Baez 發言，他將與您討論低排放解決方案業務領域的主要進展。

Thanks, Felipe. During this quarter, we reached important milestones in the portfolio of low carbon solutions. On the natural gas side, a pilot project was carried for the importation of liquefied natural gas on a small scale to the District of Buenaventura in order to test an alternative gas source to guarantee a reliable supply of these fuel to the city.

謝謝，費利佩。在本季度，我們在低碳解決方案組合中達到了重要的里程碑。在天然氣方面，開展了一個向布埃納文圖拉區小規模進口液化天然氣的試點項目，以測試替代氣源，以保證這些燃料向該市的可靠供應。

Additionally, the [Kandeo] project was ratified with 12 companies from the gas and financial sector. This project aims to finance the purchase of approximately 4,000 heavy load vehicles powered by natural gas. Ecopetrol will join with an investment close to COP60 billion. It is expected that this project will spur demand for natural gas vehicles while eliminating more than 220,000 tons of CO2 per year. We reaffirm our social commitment with the agreement signed by Hocol and Gases de la Guajira to provide funding to connect 308 low socio-economic households to the natural gas service by 2023.

此外，[Kandeo] 項目獲得了來自天然氣和金融部門的 12 家公司的批准。該項目旨在資助購買約 4,000 輛以天然氣為動力的重載車輛。 Ecopetrol 將投資近 600 億 COP。預計該項目將刺激對天然氣汽車的需求，同時每年減少22萬噸以上的二氧化碳排放。我們通過 Hocol 和 Gases de la Guajira 簽署的協議重申我們的社會承諾，提供資金，到 2023 年將 308 個低社會經濟家庭連接到天然氣服務。

Additionally, to what Felipe mentioned about the proof-of-concept to produce green hydrogen at the Cartagena refinery, we continue working on the decarbonization of the public and cargo transportation industry with the introduction of fuel cell vehicles.

此外，對於 Felipe 提到的在卡塔赫納煉油廠生產綠色氫氣的概念驗證，我們繼續致力於通過引入燃料電池汽車來實現公共和貨運行業的脫碳。

In this line of work, we made progress on the pilot for sustainable mobility in Bogota, where infrastructure will be created to recharge vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells, promoting use of low carbon solutions within the integrated public transportation system of Bogota, SITP in Spanish. The system will be live for approximately a year with the possibility of an extension for up to ten years.

在這方面的工作中，我們在波哥大的可持續交通試點方面取得了進展，將建立基礎設施，用氫燃料電池為車輛充電，促進在波哥大綜合公共交通系統（西班牙語 SITP）中使用低碳解決方案。該系統將使用大約一年，並有可能延長長達十年。

Finally, I would like to highlight that the Ecopetrol Group continues with the implementation of various low carbon technologies to generate energy from non-conventional renewable sources such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal among others in the areas of the country where the group operates. The operations that already have this renewable energy system have created cost savings close to COP19 billion and reductions of over 27,000 tons of CO2 per year.

最後，我想強調的是，Ecopetrol 集團繼續實施各種低碳技術，以在該集團經營所在國家的地區利用太陽能、風能、生物質能、地熱能等非傳統可再生能源發電.已經擁有這種可再生能源系統的運營節省了近 190 億 COP 的成本，每年減少了 27,000 多噸二氧化碳。

I will now give the floor to Alberto Consuegra, who will talk about the main operational milestones.

我現在請 Alberto Consuegra 發言，他將討論主要的運營里程碑。

Thank you, Yeimy. During this third quarter, we drilled 4 exploratory wells for a total of 13 wells drilled and 6 confirmed exploratory successes, 2 and 4 onshore so far this year. By the end of the year, we expect to drill 24 exploratory wells, in line with the plan. The presence of gas has been confirmed in deep waters in the Southern Colombian Caribbean in the Gorgon-2 well operated by Shell, in which Ecopetrol has a 50% interest confirming the extension of the discovery made back in 2017 with the Gorgon-1 well and confirming the existence of an offshore gas province where the Kronos and Purple Angel discoveries were also found in 2015 and 2017 respectively. This outcome will allow us to proceed with the evaluation of the findings, which, if developed, would increase Colombia's gas reserves.

謝謝你，耶米。在第三季度，我們鑽探了 4 口探井，共鑽探了 13 口井，並確認了 6 口勘探成功，今年到目前為止有 2 口和 4 口在陸上。到今年年底，我們預計將按照計劃鑽探 24 口探井。殼牌運營的 Gorgon-2 井在哥倫比亞南部加勒比海的深水中已證實存在天然氣，Ecopetrol 擁有 50% 的權益，這證實了 2017 年 Gorgon-1 井發現的擴展，以及確認存在一個海上天然氣區，分別在 2015 年和 2017 年發現了 Kronos 和 Purple Angel 的發現。這一結果將使我們能夠繼續評估調查結果，如果得到發展，將增加哥倫比亞的天然氣儲量。

Additionally, during October, the Coralino-1 well located in the Department of Cordoba and operated a 100% by our subsidiary Hocol revealed the presence of gas in the Cienaga de Oro formation, which is undergoing initial tests to determine its technical and commercial feasibility.

此外，在 10 月份，位於科爾多瓦省並由我們的子公司 Hocol 100% 運營的 Coralino-1 井揭示了 Cienaga de Oro 地層中存在天然氣，該地層正在進行初步測試以確定其技術和商業可行性。

Moving forward with the incorporation of reserves, the El Nino-2 discovery located in the Department of Cundinamarca progressed from its exploratory stage to the development and production stage. Ecopetrol has 50% interest, Perenco 30% as operator and CNOOC 20%. Currently, the Ecopetrol Group has a robust and competitive exploration portfolio that drives the country's sovereignty. Gas opportunities offer an estimated potential of 17 TCF of gas identified in 46 and 8 discoveries under evaluation.

隨著儲量的納入，位於昆迪納馬卡省的 El Nino-2 發現從勘探階段進入開發和生產階段。 Ecopetrol 擁有 50% 的權益，Perenco 擁有 30% 作為運營商，CNOOC 擁有 20%。目前，Ecopetrol 集團擁有強大且具有競爭力的勘探組合，推動了該國的主權。在 46 個和 8 個正在評估的發現中確定的天然氣潛力估計為 17 TCF。

Let's continue to the next slide, please. As Felipe mentioned, the production continues to grow, reaching 720,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 3Q 2022, the highest on record since 2Q '20 and placing us at the high end of the target range set for 2022. As compared to second quarter, production increased by 15,800 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

請繼續看下一張幻燈片。正如菲利普所說，產量繼續增長，到 2022 年第三季度達到每天 720,400 桶油當量，這是自 20 年第二季度以來的最高記錄，使我們處於 2022 年目標範圍的高端。與第二季度相比，產量每天增加 15,800 桶油當量。

We highlight the incremental production of our operations in the Permian and the Rubiales and Caao Sur fields. Likewise, production recovered in the La Cira, Cano Limon and Caricare fields after community events. Also, the contribution of production from the exploratory wells should be highlighted. It is important to note the increase in our execution capacity. So far this year, we have drilled and completed 407 development wells, 42% more than in the same period of last year, with an average use of 29 active rigs and 373 workovers.

我們強調了我們在二疊紀以及 Rubiales 和 Caao Sur 油田的增量生產。同樣，在社區活動之後，La Cira、Cano Limon 和 Caricare 油田的產量也有所恢復。此外，應強調探井生產的貢獻。重要的是要注意我們執行能力的提高。今年到目前為止，我們已鑽完407口開發井，比去年同期增長42%，平均使用29台現役鑽機和373次修井。

Finally, we highlight the entry into operation of the first facilities training in Cano Sur, which will increase the production of the field by year end between 7,000 and 10,000 barrels of oil per day.

最後，我們強調了 Cano Sur 的第一個設施培訓的投入運行，這將使該油田的產量在年底前每天增加 7,000 至 10,000 桶石油。

Let's move on to the next slide, please. In the Permian Basin, our activities during this quarter reached an average production of 43,800 oil equivalent barrels net Ecopetrol per day before royalties. 79.2% more than in the same period of 2021 with a record production of 50,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day in September. Gas production contributed about 16% to total production.

請繼續看下一張幻燈片。在二疊紀盆地，我們在本季度的活動在特許權使用費之前達到了每天 43,800 石油當量桶淨 Ecopetrol 的平均產量。比 2021 年同期增長 79.2%，9 月份的日產量達到創紀錄的 50,200 桶油當量。天然氣產量約佔總產量的 16%。

We also highlight our solid financial results. So far this year we have generated an EBITDA of $454.5 billion with an EBITDA margin of 88%. In line with our TESG strategy, we highlight the low emissions intensity of our Permian operations as a result of the 0 routine flaring initiative and the use of fugitive emissions monitoring systems in the facilities.

我們還強調了我們穩健的財務業績。今年到目前為止，我們的 EBITDA 為 4545 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 88%。根據我們的 TESG 戰略，我們強調了由於 0 例行燃燒計劃和在設施中使用逃逸排放監測系統，我們二疊紀作業的低排放強度。

Likewise, as part of Ecopetrol S.A. alliance with Accenture and AWS to develop a digital solution for water management, a pilot project is currently being conducted in our Permian assets. By year end, we expect another channel production between 36,000 to 38,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net for Ecopetrol before royalties, with approximately 93 wells drilled and 95 wells completed.

同樣，作為 Ecopetrol S.A. 與埃森哲和 AWS 聯盟開發水資源管理數字解決方案的一部分，目前正在我們的二疊紀資產中進行試點項目。到年底，我們預計 Ecopetrol 在扣除特許權使用費之前的另一個渠道產量將在每天 36,000 至 38,000 桶石油當量之間，大約有 93 口井已鑽探，95 口井已完成。

Let's continue to the next slide, please. In the midstream segment, transported volume increased by 63,000 barrels per day versus 3 quarters of 2021, mainly due to the higher production of crude and local demand for refined products. It's worth noting that in the third quarter of this year we reached an all-time high for product pipeline transport exceeding 300,000 barrels per day. In order to strengthen the company's operation and contribute to the hydrocarbon transport business, 2 new tanks, each with a storage capacity of 100,000 barrels, came into operation at the Sebastopol station of the Mid-Magdalena trunk line, increasing the storage capacity of this strategic asset of the pipeline system by 26%.

請繼續看下一張幻燈片。在中游部分，與 2021 年的三個季度相比，每天的運輸量增加了 63,000 桶，這主要是由於原油產量增加和當地對成品油的需求增加。值得注意的是，今年第三季度，我們的產品管道運輸量達到了歷史最高水平，每天超過 30 萬桶。為加強公司經營，為油氣運輸業務貢獻力量，中馬格達萊納幹線塞巴斯托波爾站2個儲罐10萬桶的新儲罐投入使用，增加了該戰略的儲罐能力。管道系統資產減少 26%。

Within the framework of our TESG strategy, we highlight the inauguration of the photovoltaic solar system in Tumaco, Narino together with the Pacific Technical Development Corporation, Corte Pas, which will supply the energy required for the cocoa drying process. This project will benefit 293 families and positively impact 90% of women in the region promoting to closing of gender gaps in the cocoa activity.

在我們的 TESG 戰略框架內，我們重點介紹了位於 Narino 的 Tumaco 的光伏太陽能係統與太平洋技術開發公司 Corte Pas 的落成典禮，該系統將為可可干燥過程提供所需的能源。該項目將使 293 個家庭受益，並對該地區 90% 的婦女產生積極影響，促進縮小可可活動中的性別差距。

Let's go to the next slide, please. In the downstream segment, operational integrity was maintained and exceptional financial results were achieved. We highlight quarterly historical throughput levels recorded in both refineries as well as an increase in value because of higher diesel and jet fuel production. During the third quarter, the segment registered a combined refining gross margin of $20.3 per barrel and an EBITDA of COP2.2 trillion. The Cartagena refinery accounted for 36% of the segment's EBITDA during the quarter and 41% so far this year. These results were leveraged by an efficient plant shutdown execution strategy, ensuring the operational availability and reliability of the assets as well as cost control.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。在下游部分，保持了運營的完整性，並取得了卓越的財務業績。我們強調了兩家煉油廠的季度歷史吞吐量水平以及由於柴油和航空燃料產量增加而導致的價值增長。在第三季度，該部門的煉油總毛利為每桶 20.3 美元，EBITDA 為 2.2 萬億 COP。卡塔赫納煉油廠在本季度佔該部門 EBITDA 的 36%，今年迄今佔 41%。有效的工廠關閉執行策略利用了這些結果，確保了資產的運營可用性和可靠性以及成本控制。

On September 15, the Cartagena refinery increased its throughput capacity to 200,000 barrels per day, an amount that exceeds the previous operating capacity by 50,000 barrels, thanks to the successful start-up of the original crude unit systems. This project involves the effort of more than 1500 people with 93% of labor originated from Cartagena. No injuries, process safety events and environmental incidents were reported. This expansion established the role of the Cartagena refinery as a strategic asset to guarantee Colombia's energy autonomy and will allow us to produce a greater volume of fuels that meet the highest international quality standards.

9月15日，卡塔赫納煉油廠將產能提升至20萬桶/日，比之前的運營能力高出5萬桶，這得益於原原油裝置系統的成功啟動。該項目涉及 1500 多人的努力，其中 93% 的勞動力來自卡塔赫納。沒有報告任何傷害、過程安全事件和環境事件。這次擴建確立了卡塔赫納煉油廠作為戰略資產的作用，以保證哥倫比亞的能源自主權，並使我們能夠生產更多符合最高國際質量標準的燃料。

On the other hand, the Barrancabermeja refinery was recognized as the best in Latin America by the World Refining Association during the Latin American Refining Technology Conference. This award highlights the refinery's lead position in efficiency, energy transition, profitability and implementation of new technologies.

另一方面，Barrancabermeja 煉油廠在拉丁美洲煉油技術大會上被世界煉油協會評為拉丁美洲最好的煉油廠。該獎項突出了煉油廠在效率、能源轉型、盈利能力和新技術實施方面的領先地位。

In line with our commitment to TESG, the Cartagena refinery, a renewable diesel industrial trial will take place during this quarter in order to gain information for the business case and continue our progress in the energy transition process.

根據我們對卡塔赫納煉油廠 TESG 的承諾，本季度將進行可再生柴油工業試驗，以獲得商業案例的信息並繼續我們在能源轉型過程中的進展。

During the fourth quarter, we expect to complete the refinery plant shutdown cycle as scheduled. In Esenttia, progress continues in the expansion of one of the plant's capacity. Also maintain the operational stability and availability of all our business units.

在第四季度，我們預計將如期完成煉油廠停工週期。在 Esenttia，其中一家工廠的產能擴張繼續取得進展。同時保持我們所有業務部門的運營穩定性和可用性。

Let's move on to the next slide, please. The domestic and international macroeconomic situation has generated commercial inflationary and logistical challenges for the group. As of September, there has been a significant increase in prices, mainly of raw materials and power, which has impacted the cost structure, representing a weighted increase of 13% versus the previous year.

請繼續看下一張幻燈片。國內外宏觀經濟形勢給集團帶來了商業通脹和物流方面的挑戰。截至 9 月，主要原材料和電力價格大幅上漲，影響成本結構，較上年加權上漲 13%。

Within the Ecopetrol Group, we have been developing comprehensive strategies to mitigate the inflationary impact and protect our ability to execute the business plan. So far this year we have captured efficiencies of approximately COP1.8 trillion, of which COP0.6 trillion have helped contain inflationary pressure on costs. In the absence of this efficiencies, we would have had a 16% cost increase.

在 Ecopetrol 集團內，我們一直在製定綜合戰略，以減輕通貨膨脹影響並保護我們執行業務計劃的能力。今年到目前為止，我們已經獲得了大約 1.8 萬億 COP 的效率，其中 0.6 萬億 COP 有助於控製成本的通脹壓力。如果沒有這種效率，我們的成本會增加 16%。

In addition to this efficiency program, we have worked to ensure the availability of inventories of materials required to operate by developing joint procurement strategies with our suppliers. The total unit cost for 3Q 2022 had a year-on-year increase of approximately $13 per barrel, primarily due to higher prices of purchases and imports of crude oil and products.

除了這個效率計劃之外，我們還通過與供應商制定聯合採購戰略，努力確保運營所需的材料庫存的可用性。 2022 年第三季度的總單位成本同比增長約 13 美元/桶，主要是由於原油和產品的採購和進口價格上漲。

The lifting cost increased by 9% versus the third quarter of 2021 from $8.45 to $9.17 per barrel, mainly as a result of greater operational levels and the influence of inflationary pressure on the cost structure.

與 2021 年第三季度相比，起重成本增加了 9%，從每桶 8.45 美元增至 9.17 美元，這主要是由於更高的運營水平和通脹壓力對成本結構的影響。

Regarding the refining cash costs, we had a 16% reduction with respect to 3Q 2021, thanks to the higher throughput volume at the refineries. Finally, the cost per barrel transported also decreased due to the higher volume of crude oil and products transported.

關於煉油現金成本，由於煉油廠的吞吐量增加，我們比 2021 年第三季度減少了 16%。最後，由於原油和產品運輸量增加，每桶運輸成本也有所下降。

I now give the floor to Jaime Caballero, who will present the key financial results of the Ecopetrol Group.

我現在請 Jaime Caballero 發言，他將介紹 Ecopetrol Group 的主要財務業績。

Thanks, Alberto. During the third quarter of the year, the group continued to deliver exceptional financial results, supported by strong operating and commercial performance that has allowed distinctive capture positive market conditions.

謝謝，阿爾貝托。在今年第三季度，該集團繼續提供出色的財務業績，這得益於強勁的運營和商業業績，從而能夠捕捉到積極的市場條件。

EBITDA per barrel of the hydrocarbons business, which does not include ISA's contribution, increased $27.1 per barrel compared to the first 9 months of 2021, reaching $67.3 per barrel, explained by higher realization prices of the basket of crudes and products, incorporation of ISA and the increase in sales volumes. Net income breakeven was $20.3 per barrel, decreasing $14.5 per barrel, as compared to the first 9 months of 2021, mainly as a result of higher sales volumes and improved crude and product spreads.

與 2021 年前 9 個月相比，碳氫化合物業務的每桶 EBITDA（不包括 ISA 的貢獻）增加了 27.1 美元，達到每桶 67.3 美元，原因是一攬子原油和產品的實現價格較高，ISA 和銷量的增加。與 2021 年前 9 個月相比，淨收入盈虧平衡為每桶 20.3 美元，每桶減少 14.5 美元，這主要是由於銷量增加以及原油和產品價差改善。

In the Energy Transmission and Toll Roads business, ISA's EBITDA margin, excluding the construction business closed at 83.6%, mainly explained by the positive effect of macroeconomic variables in Colombia, Chile and Peru and the entry into operation of new projects since 4Q '21 in all of the company's geographies. ISA's ROE for the 9 months of 2022 was 13.2%, in line with the strategy of generating sustainable value.

在能源傳輸和收費公路業務中，ISA 的 EBITDA 利潤率（不包括建築業務）為 83.6%，主要是由於哥倫比亞、智利和秘魯宏觀經濟變量的積極影響以及 21 年 4 季度以來新項目的投入運營公司的所有地區。 ISA 2022 年 9 個月的 ROE 為 13.2%，符合創造可持續價值的戰略。

In terms of the Ecopetrol Group's consolidated results, the following standout. EBITDA margin stood at 49.5% driven by higher realization prices of the crude and product basket incorporation of ISA and strong performance of the Permian asset and the Cartagena refinery. ROACE continue to increase and stood at 19.1% during the first 9 months of the year compared to 10.8% in the same period of 2021, explained by higher operating income, in line with the previously mentioned factors. It is important to highlight the increase in EBITDA in all of the group's segments, particularly in the downstream which tripled its contribution compared to the previous year due to its operating stability. Likewise, the Energy Transmission and Road segment contributed stability to the Group's revenues and operating cash flow.

就 Ecopetrol Group 的綜合業績而言，以下表現突出。 EBITDA 利潤率為 49.5%，受 ISA 原油和產品籃子實現價格上漲以及二疊紀資產和卡塔赫納煉油廠強勁表現的推動。 ROACE 繼續增長，今年前 9 個月為 19.1%，而 2021 年同期為 10.8%，原因是營業收入增加，與前面提到的因素一致。重要的是要強調集團所有部門的 EBITDA 增長，特別是在下游，由於其運營穩定性，其貢獻比上一年增加了兩倍。同樣，能源傳輸和道路部門為集團的收入和經營現金流貢獻了穩定。

The gross debt to EBITDA ratio was 1.5x, below June's level, explained by a better EBITDA result. It is important to highlight that the increase in the debt balance observed in the quarter is explained by the foreign exchange restatement, which is mainly recognized in equity due to the use of hedge accounting and not by an increase in debt operations. In line with what was discussed in previous calls, the Ecopetrol Group continues to manage debt maturities for the third quarter of 2023 seeking to ensure the most competitive conditions in this volatile market environment.

總債務與 EBITDA 的比率為 1.5 倍，低於 6 月份的水平，原因是 EBITDA 結果更好。重要的是要強調，本季度觀察到的債務餘額增加是由外匯重述解釋的，這主要是由於使用對沖會計而不是債務業務的增加而在權益中確認。根據之前電話會議中討論的內容，Ecopetrol Group 將繼續管理 2023 年第三季度的債務到期，以確保在這種動蕩的市場環境中獲得最具競爭力的條件。

Please let's go to the next slide. Regarding CapEx performance, during the first 9 months of the year, $5.5 billion were executed. 74% more than in the same period of 2021, out of which $4.8 billion correspond to the hydrocarbon business. With this, the Ecopetrol Group return to the investment execution levels recorded prior to the pandemic. On the other hand investments executed by ISA amounted to $0.7 billion, mainly focused on the transmission business. With the above, we maintain the investment target in the initial range of the plan.

請讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片。關於資本支出表現，今年前 9 個月執行了 55 億美元。比 2021 年同期增長 74%，其中 48 億美元對應於碳氫化合物業務。有了這個，Ecopetrol Group 恢復到大流行之前記錄的投資執行水平。另一方面，ISA 執行的投資總額為 7 億美元，主要集中在輸電業務上。綜上所述，我們將投資目標維持在計劃的初始範圍內。

This quarter marks the 1 year anniversary of the consolidation of ISA within the group's results. So I would like to highlight some relevant milestones regarding the investment made in this company. Regarding the financing of the acquisition during 2021 and 2022, we carried out 2 liability management operations for a total of $3.2 billion, which allowed us to improve the maturity profile and reduce expiries in 2023. Thus, the balance of the international loan taken for the acquisition of ISA amounts to $472 million, which will be refinanced over the coming months.

本季度是 ISA 在集團業績中整合一周年。因此，我想強調一些有關對這家公司的投資的相關里程碑。關於 2021 年和 2022 年的收購融資，我們進行了 2 次負債管理操作，總額為 32 億美元，這使我們能夠改善到期狀況並減少 2023 年的到期。因此，為ISA 的收購金額為 4.72 億美元，將在未來幾個月內進行再融資。

N terms of the contribution to the group's results, ISA has exceeded expectations in terms of revenue, EBITDA and net income generation when compared against original budgets. As of September, revenues were 16% higher than the budget estimate. Profit generation was 50% higher and the EBITDA generation was 30% higher. This continues to confirm the added value from ISA to the Ecopetrol group to the generation of stable cash flows without reducing our exposure to Brent as a group.

N 項對集團業績的貢獻，與原始預算相比，ISA 在收入、EBITDA 和淨收入產生方面超出了預期。截至 9 月，收入比預算估計高 16%。產生的利潤增加了 50%，產生的 EBITDA 增加了 30%。這繼續證實了 ISA 為 Ecopetrol 集團帶來的附加價值，以及在不減少我們作為一個集團的布倫特原油敞口的情況下產生穩定的現金流。

Please, let's go to the next slide. At the end of the third quarter of 2022, the Ecopetrol Group recorded a cash position of COP15.9 trillion, where the following items stand out. An operating cash flow generation of COP14.9 trillion, mainly associated to the good performance of the business segments, the favorable price environment and the collection during the months of July and August of COP6.5 trillion from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, FEPC, for its Spanish acronym.

請讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片。截至 2022 年第三季度末，Ecopetrol 集團的現金頭寸為 15.9 萬億 COP，其中以下項目尤為突出。產生 14.9 萬億 COP 的營運現金流，主要與業務部門的良好表現、有利的價格環境以及 7 月和 8 月從燃料價格穩定基金、FEPC、為其西班牙語首字母縮略詞。

The account receivable from the fund amounts to COP20.4 trillion as of end September, corresponding to the accumulated amount since April. Regarding FEPC, it is important to note that the general budget of the Colombian nation for 2023 included an explicit item of COP19 trillion to partially pay off the accumulated balances since April to-date. In addition to empowering the ministry to offset such payments against eventual dividends decreed in its favor and/or use uncommitted budget surpluses for additional payments to the fund.

截至 9 月底，該基金應收賬款為 20.4 萬億 COP，與 4 月以來的累計金額相對應。關於 FEPC，值得注意的是，哥倫比亞國家 2023 年的總預算包括一項 19 萬億 COP 的明確項目，以部分償還自 4 月至今的累積餘額。除了授權該部用對其有利的最終股息來抵消此類付款和/或使用未承諾的預算盈餘向基金額外付款。

Also, it is important to highlight that the new government initiated a gasoline price adjustment path, which is critical to slow down the speed of such accumulation and to close the gap of local versus international reference prices. The resources generated by the operation were used for organic capital investment for COP5.5 trillion, as well as for the outflow of COP7.3 trillion in cash flow, of which COP2.1 trillion correspond to debt service and COP5.2 trillion to dividends paid to the company's shareholders and to the minority shareholders of the subsidiaries in the transportation segment.

此外，重要的是要強調新政府啟動了汽油價格調整路徑，這對於減緩這種積累的速度並縮小本地與國際參考價格的差距至關重要。運營產生的資源用於有機資本投資 5.5 萬億 COP，以及流出 7.3 萬億 COP 的現金流，其中 2.1 萬億對應於償債，5.2 萬億對應於股息支付給公司股東和交通板塊子公司的少數股東。

I now turn the floor over to Felipe for his closing remarks.

我現在請費利佩發言，請他做最後的發言。

Thank you, Jaime. In the context of the long-term strategy energy that transforms presented at the beginning of the year, we set different goals, not only in terms of our operations and financial indicators, but also around the steps requires to move decisively and responsibly towards the energy transition.

謝謝你，詹姆。在年初提出的長期戰略能源轉型的背景下，我們設定了不同的目標，不僅在我們的運營和財務指標方面，而且圍繞著果斷和負責任地邁向能源所需的步驟過渡。

Several short, medium and long-term commitments on the environment, social and governance fronts are part of the roadmap for our various efforts in the areas of water reuse, cumulative reduction of greenhouse effect emissions, reduction of fugitive emissions, increasing the installed capacity of renewable energies, sustainability in terms of transfers to the nation, impact generation through social, environment investment, a constant search of the highest safety standards in our operations.

在環境、社會和治理方面的幾項短期、中期和長期承諾是我們在中水回用、溫室效應排放累積減少、無組織排放減少、增加裝機容量等領域的各種努力的路線圖的一部分。可再生能源，向國家轉移的可持續性，通過社會和環境投資產生影響，在我們的運營中不斷尋求最高安全標準。

In line with the performance evidence in this and other fronts in our TESG strategy, we will continue to disclose in a transparent and timely manner such information to our different stakeholders, highlighting the following. In 3Q 2022, we presented our second specialized report on climate change management from the perspectives of governance, strategy, risks, targets and metrics for 2021, following the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures, TCFD and international best practices. We obtained 77 points in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index measurement, where more than 10,000 companies worldwide participate in such evaluation and as such is one of the most recognized international benchmarks for good corporate practices.

根據我們 TESG 戰略中這方面和其他方面的績效證據，我們將繼續以透明和及時的方式向我們的不同利益相關者披露此類信息，並強調以下內容。在 2022 年第三季度，我們根據氣候相關財務信息披露工作組、TCFD 和國際最佳實踐的建議，從治理、戰略、風險、目標和指標的角度提交了第二份氣候變化管理專業報告。我們在道瓊斯可持續發展指數測量中獲得 77 分，全球有 10,000 多家公司參與了此類評估，因此是最受認可的良好企業實踐國際基準之一。

Let's now go on to the next slide. So far this year, the Ecopetrol Group has been delivering solid financial and operating results that have been accompanied by milestones in each of the pillars of our 2040 strategy energy that transform. This has allowed us to move forward in an organized manner towards the energy transition, strengthening our commitment to the country and the energy security.

現在讓我們繼續下一張幻燈片。今年到目前為止，Ecopetrol 集團一直在提供穩健的財務和運營業績，伴隨著我們 2040 年轉型戰略能源的每個支柱的里程碑。這使我們能夠以有組織的方式向能源轉型邁進，加強我們對國家和能源安全的承諾。

The new Board of Directors has expressed its support for the continuity of the 2040 strategy, which seeks to promote renewable and low emission energies, while continuing with the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas.

新董事會表示支持 2040 年戰略的連續性，該戰略旨在促進可再生能源和低排放能源，同時繼續勘探和開採石油和天然氣。

The new challenges we face as an industry demand activating levers that allow us to adapt promptly and to continue to work on generating value for our stakeholders, taking advantage of the opportunities that align with our 2040 strategy and within the framework of the decarbonization objectives.

作為一個行業，我們面臨的新挑戰需要激活槓桿，使我們能夠迅速適應並繼續努力為我們的利益相關者創造價值，利用與我們的 2040 戰略和脫碳目標框架相一致的機會。

Let's now go to the next slide for our closing remarks. To conclude, we continue to deliver solid results to our shareholders and stakeholders, even above the goals we set for ourselves in the year. We have made concrete progress in each of the pillars of our strategy, particularly noteworthy are the results that allow us to ensure supply and guarantee of the energy sovereignty for Colombia.

現在讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片來結束髮言。總而言之，我們繼續為我們的股東和利益相關者帶來可觀的成果，甚至超過了我們在這一年為自己設定的目標。我們在戰略的每一個支柱上都取得了具體進展，特別值得注意的是使我們能夠確保供應和保障哥倫比亞能源主權的成果。

We remain committed to creating value for our shareholders while working with the government to contribute proactively to the design of the country's energy policy and to define different commitments within the frame of a gradual responsible and just energy transition.

我們仍然致力於為我們的股東創造價值，同時與政府合作，積極為國家能源政策的設計做出貢獻，並在逐步負責任和公正的能源轉型框架內確定不同的承諾。

Once again, thanks to all of you who are participating today in this earnings call. Thanks for your time. Thanks for your interest in Ecopetrol. And I will now open the floor for questions and answers.

再次感謝今天參加本次財報電話會議的所有人。謝謝你的時間。感謝您對 Ecopetrol 的關注。我現在請大家提問和回答。

(Operator Instructions) We have a question from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們有一個來自摩根士丹利的 Bruno Montanari 的問題。

I have a question about production and a question about the taxes. On production, even if we look at the top end of the guidance, it means that in the fourth quarter there would be a decline, right? So can you walk us through what would be the drivers of production now through the end of the year? And if there could be a possibility that you actually surpass the top end of the guidance in 2022? And then on the tax rate, if I understood correctly from the Spanish call, the company sounded less concerned, it seemed, about the amount of new incremental taxes that would flow through. But I mean, on our numbers, looking at the potential 15% extra points on tax, it's a meaningful impact over cash flow. So I was wondering if that interpretation is correct. And finally, on the taxes, can you give us an idea of the impact of the non-deductibility of royalties part and perhaps walk us through how that would be measured? It seems a little bit complex involving what is in kind royalties, royalties in cash being cost based, among other items. So any visibility on that specific point would be greatly appreciated.

我有一個關於生產的問題和一個關於稅收的問題。在生產方面，即使我們查看指導的高端，也意味著第四季度會有下降，對吧？那麼，您能告訴我們，到今年年底，現在生產的驅動因素是什麼？如果您有可能在 2022 年實際超過指導的上限？然後是稅率，如果我從西班牙的電話中理解正確的話，該公司似乎不太擔心將流過的新增量稅的數量。但我的意思是，根據我們的數據，看看潛在的 15% 的稅收額外點，這對現金流量產生了有意義的影響。所以我想知道這種解釋是否正確。最後，關於稅收，您能否告訴我們特許權使用費不可扣除部分的影響，或許可以引導我們了解如何衡量這一點？涉及實物特許權使用費、基於成本的現金特許權使用費以及其他項目似乎有點複雜。因此，我們將不勝感激對該特定點的任何可見性。

Thank you, Bruno. I'm going to ask Alberto to take us through a bit more detail on production for 4Q and next year. And then I'm going to ask Jaime to talk about tax reform and the impact. So, Alberto, if you can go ahead.

謝謝你，布魯諾。我將請阿爾貝托帶我們了解有關第四季度和明年生產的更多細節。然後我將請 Jaime 談談稅收改革及其影響。所以，阿爾貝托，如果你可以繼續。

Bruno, thanks for your question. With regards to production in 4Q, as you mentioned, there will be a decline and because of the planned maintenance of the Cusiana gas plant, which was executed during the month of October. So what we are seeing is in October with weak production because of that, with an average of about a little bit under 700,000 barrels oil equivalent. But then we expect a strong comeback in November and December. So at the end of the year, we should be in the higher side of the range that we provided to you, between 700,000 and 705,000 barrels. So that's 2022.

布魯諾，謝謝你的提問。關於第四季度的產量，正如您所提到的，由於 Cusiana 天然氣廠計劃在 10 月份進行的維護，將會出現下降。因此，我們看到的是 10 月份的產量因此而疲軟，平均產量略低於 700,000 桶油當量。但隨後我們預計 11 月和 12 月將強勢回歸。所以在年底，我們應該在我們提供給你的範圍的較高端，在 700,000 到 705,000 桶之間。所以那是2022年。

With regards to 2023, we expect to have to maintain a higher production in the range of 720,000 to 725,000 barrels per oil per day. Mostly, this will be the -- if you look at what are the sources of the upside, it will be a strong production coming from our mature fields, Rubiales, Chichimene and Casabe. New production coming from Cano Sur. And then also the additional production that we are seeing coming from Permian. So 2023 looks very exciting. And 2022, as I mentioned, very much in line with what we told you before.

就 2023 年而言，我們預計必須將產量維持在每天 720,000 至 725,000 桶/石油的範圍內。大多數情況下，這將是——如果你看看上漲的來源是什麼，這將是來自我們成熟油田 Rubiales、Chichimene 和 Casabe 的強勁產量。來自 Cano Sur 的新產品。然後還有我們看到的來自二疊紀的額外產量。所以 2023 年看起來非常令人興奮。正如我所提到的，2022 年非常符合我們之前告訴你的內容。

Jaime?

詹姆?

Bruno, with regards to the tax reform, we basically see that we're fundamentally talking about 2 effects. The first one and probably the most meaningful is the surcharge on corporate tax that's going to be linked to the price environment. Basically, the way that the reform has been proposed, it triggers 3 levels of incremental surcharge associated to a historical price averages in the oil sector. And we've been looking at it in a lot of detail and we actually believe that the methodology that has been proposed in the reform is robust and it's one that acknowledges the realities of the price environment in the sector. To that extent, we believe that this 5%, 10% or 15% surcharge that is linked to prices, it's going to be closely related to the incremental cash flow that the companies are going to have. And to the extent that those prices materialize, we're going to have a significant effect or not, right? In lower price environment, the impact is minimal. In higher price environments, there is going to be a cash effect, but you need to consider that versus the incremental cash flows that the companies are going to receive anyway associated to the increased earnings associated to that price environment. So that's the way we look at it.

布魯諾，關於稅收改革，我們基本上看到我們基本上是在談論兩個影響。第一個可能也是最有意義的一項是與價格環境相關的公司稅附加費。基本上，按照提議的改革方式，它會觸發與石油行業歷史平均價格相關的 3 個級別的增量附加費。我們一直在仔細研究它，我們實際上認為改革中提出的方法是穩健的，它承認了該行業價格環境的現實。在這個程度上，我們認為與價格相關的 5%、10% 或 15% 的附加費將與公司將擁有的增量現金流密切相關。就這些價格實現的程度而言，我們是否會產生重大影響，對嗎？在低價環境下，影響微乎其微。在更高的價格環境中，將產生現金效應，但您需要考慮到與該價格環境相關的收益增加相關的公司將獲得的增量現金流。這就是我們看待它的方式。

The other effect, which is royalties, we think it's a relatively marginal, it's relatively marginal. Effectively what is going to occur is that a cost of production which are currently being deducted from the tax baseline from the earnings baseline are no longer going to be able to be deducted, right? It's not the commercial cost that is associated to these volumes. It's certainly not the total earnings that the government gets from it. As in earlier versions of the reform, it's only the cost of production. So we believe that probably is not going to be as material as initially estimated.

另一個影響，就是版稅，我們認為它是一個相對邊際的，它是相對邊際的。實際上，將發生的情況是，目前從收入基線中從稅收基線中扣除的生產成本將不再能夠被扣除，對吧？與這些數量相關的不是商業成本。這當然不是政府從中獲得的總收益。與早期版本的改革一樣，這只是生產成本。因此，我們認為這可能不會像最初估計的那樣重要。

I'm going to go ahead and give you some estimates that I shared in the previous call that we did in Spanish for the benefit of the audience and to make sure that everybody has the same information. And ultimately when you take this to a tax effective rate, the way that we are looking at it is that currently in the Ecopetrol Group, we have a tax effective rate that is around 33%. If we think in terms of ranges, you can think about a nominal tax rate of 35%, right? So when you think about a world under this tax reform, in a high price environment, we're going to have a surcharge of up to 15%. So that's going to take that 33%, 35% to 48%, 50% on the basis of the surcharge. And, on top of that, we think that the change in the methodology around royalties may add somewhere between 2% to 5% of additional points of that tax effective rate. That's how we think about it and that's how we're modeling it at this stage.

我將繼續為您提供一些估計，這些估計是我在上一次電話會議中分享的，我們用西班牙語進行的，以使觀眾受益，並確保每個人都有相同的信息。最終，當您將其視為有效稅率時，我們的看法是，目前在 Ecopetrol 集團中，我們的有效稅率約為 33%。如果我們從範圍的角度來考慮，你可以考慮35%的名義稅率，對吧？因此，當您考慮在這個稅制改革下的世界，在高價格環境下，我們將徵收高達 15% 的附加費。因此，在附加費的基礎上，這將是 33%、35% 到 48%、50%。而且，最重要的是，我們認為圍繞特許權使用費的方法的變化可能會增加該稅率的 2% 到 5% 的額外點。這就是我們思考它的方式，也是我們在這個階段對它進行建模的方式。

I do want to emphasize again that this is closely related to what price environment you are believing, right, what price environment you are believing. Clearly, in the in the near-term, when we think about 2023, we continue to see a robust price environment for our commodities. But when you think about it in the long-term, you know, mid-term and long-term, we don't believe that and therefore we don't believe that these tax reform fundamentally changes our valuation of long-term projects. So I hope this addresses kind of the broader angle around your questions.

我確實想再次強調，這與你所相信的價格環境密切相關，對，你所相信的價格環境。顯然，在短期內，當我們考慮 2023 年時，我們將繼續看到我們商品的強勁價格環境。但是當你從長遠來看，你知道，中期和長期，我們不相信這一點，因此我們不相信這些稅收改革會從根本上改變我們對長期項目的估值。所以我希望這能解決你的問題的更廣泛的角度。

Our next question comes from Barbara Halberstadt from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Barbara Halberstadt。

So I wanted to also follow up from a comment made earlier on the Spanish call in terms of the refinancing options for 2023, definitely where bonds are trading currently would be a much higher cost of debt for the company. So if I understood correctly, currently the main source of funding could be bank lines. So if that's the case, just wanted to confirm if you're looking more into local sources or local plus international and to confirm if that's the case as well. And also in terms of the FEPC balance, I think, we had an expectation that it could end a year around COP27 trillion. Just wanted to have an update, if you continue to think that's more or less where you want a year in terms of the outstanding balance for the FEPC. And if you're ready to have an estimate for 2023, considering the modest increases in the domestic prices have been applied for gasoline at least. That would be for me.

因此，我還想跟進早些時候在西班牙電話會議上就 2023 年的再融資選項發表的評論，對於目前的債券交易而言，肯定是公司的債務成本要高得多。所以如果我理解正確的話，目前主要的資金來源可能是銀行額度。因此，如果是這種情況，只是想確認您是否正在更多地尋找本地資源或本地加國際資源，並確認是否也是這種情況。我認為，就 FEPC 餘額而言，我們預計它可能會在 27 萬億美元左右結束一年。只是想更新一下，如果您繼續認為就 FEPC 的未償餘額而言，這或多或少是您想要的一年。如果你準備好對 2023 年進行估計，考慮到國內價格的適度上漲，至少已經適用於汽油。那是給我的。

Thanks, Barbara. This is Felipe. Good to have you here. I'm going to ask Jaime to give us more details on both refining and status of FEPC as we see that the year end next year. Jaime?

謝謝，芭芭拉。這是費利佩。很高興有你在這裡。我將請 Jaime 向我們提供有關 FEPC 的精煉和狀態的更多詳細信息，因為我們將看到明年年底。詹姆?

Barbara, yes, so effectively what we were sharing in the call in Spanish is that I think there's 3 key messages. The first one is that the ISA acquisition loan has been refinanced to a very large degree. Out of the $3.7 billion of the ISA acquisition, basically $3.2 billion have already been refinanced at a cost of debt that is very comparable to the initial acquisition credit. And we have a remaining balances for the fourth quarter of next year or September, October of next year of about $3.5 billion or so of credits that we need to refinance. And we're actively working on those. Our bias is towards bank loans on this. We are looking at all sources, both local and international.

芭芭拉，是的，我們在西班牙語電話會議中分享的內容非常有效，我認為有 3 個關鍵信息。第一個是ISA收購貸款在很大程度上得到了再融資。在 ISA 收購的 37 億美元中，基本上有 32 億美元已經以與初始收購信貸非常相似的債務成本進行了再融資。明年第四季度或明年 9 月、10 月，我們還有大約 35 億美元左右的信貸餘額需要再融資。我們正在積極研究這些。我們偏向於銀行貸款。我們正在尋找所有來源，包括本地和國際。

And to the extent that there is a remaining balance that we don't think it's cost competitive to deal through loans, we will be looking at other options. But I think those are things that are going to sort themselves over time. At this stage, we have a very high degree of confidence that we can refinance this in the short-term through the mechanisms available.

如果有餘額，我們認為通過貸款進行交易沒有成本競爭力，我們將考慮其他選擇。但我認為這些事情會隨著時間的推移而自行解決。在這個階段，我們非常有信心通過可用的機制在短期內進行再融資。

With regards to your second question around FEPC, the stabilization fund balance, so as we mentioned in our report, our balance at 3Q closing was COP20.4 trillion, that will continue to accrue over the next few months. We believe that the year-end balance is going to be somewhere between COP29 trillion and COP32 trillion. I cannot give you a certain number because it depends on how international prices evolve. It also depends on around how the exchange rate evolves.

關於你關於 FEPC 的第二個問題，穩定基金餘額，正如我們在報告中提到的，我們在第三季度收盤時的餘額為 20.4 萬億 COP，這將在未來幾個月內繼續增加。我們認為年終餘額將介於 COP29 萬億和 COP32 萬億之間。我不能給你一個具體的數字，因為這取決於國際價格的演變。它還取決於匯率如何演變。

With regards to 2023, we have been working on some internal projections and we are sharing those with the Ministry of Mines and with the Ministry of Finance to inform their decision making around adjustments at a local level. What we've seen so far is that the Ministry of Finance has a clear interest in accelerating those adjustments over the coming year with a view to reduce the differential that we have between the international price and the local price. And I think it's too early to give you a view around projections for next year since they're going to be heavily dependent on the pace in which the ministry makes those adjustments and how international prices and exchange rate evolves.

關於 2023 年，我們一直在進行一些內部預測，我們正在與礦業部和財政部分享這些預測，以便為他們在地方層面進行調整的決策提供信息。到目前為止，我們看到的是，財政部顯然有興趣在未來一年加快這些調整，以期縮小國際價格與本地價格之間的差距。而且我認為現在就明年的預測給出看法還為時過早，因為它們將在很大程度上取決於該部進行這些調整的速度以及國際價格和匯率的演變方式。

Our next question comes from Luiz Carvalho from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Luiz Carvalho。

I have basically 2 questions here. The first one is trying to come back on the connection between the FEPC and the tax reform. I think we discussed this in a call couple of weeks ago, but just trying to understand, I really think there has some impact in mining and oil. There were some impacts, including royalties with A&H. And also if you could comment on the free zones, particularly on REFICAR and how the tax reform is correlated to the typical tax situation, right? The second question is about some contract renewals or reactivation. There are some talks about potentially reactivating some contracts and some exploratory areas. So just trying to understand how this can bring some impact either the CapEx or production to the company looking forward?

我在這里基本上有2個問題。第一個是試圖回到FEPC與稅制改革之間的聯繫。我想我們在幾週前的電話會議中討論了這個問題，但只是想了解一下，我真的認為這對採礦和石油有一些影響。有一些影響，包括與 A&H 的特許權使用費。此外，如果您可以評論自由區，特別是 REFICAR 以及稅收改革如何與典型的稅收情況相關，對嗎？第二個問題是關於一些合同續籤或重新激活。有一些關於可能重新激活一些合同和一些探索領域的討論。因此，只是想了解這如何給未來的公司帶來資本支出或生產方面的影響？

Luiz, so I'm going to take the first question and Alberto is going to take your second question around the contracts outlook. And, you know, basically what you're asking is how has the tax reform evolved? And I think we need to recognize that this latest version that is that was approved by the Chambers of Congress last week is a very different version from the ones that were previously discussed. I think directionally you can almost speak about this is version 3.0 and there was a kind of version 1.0 and a version 2.0. Version 1.0 spoke about things like export taxes and export levies and things like that. Version 2.0 spoke about a very aggressive, if you will, taxation to a -- or treatment to royalties, right. All of that has gone away. All of that has gone away. And what we have now that is relevant to the oil and gas sector is fundamentally 3 effects, 3 fundamental effects. The first one is this surcharge that is linked to prices. There are some bands and basically if you are below 60, I don't have the exact numbers here with me, but it's I think it's $63 or so. You have the same corporate tax that everybody else has. Above $63 and going from $63 to $72, and I'm going to give you the exact numbers in a moment. You basically have a 5% then from $72 to $83, you have a 10%, and $83 and above, we have 15%. And when you look at those tax bands, they are -- they actually quite reflect our understanding of the international price environment. We can agree if you think about our plan prices, they do reflect when you are in a positive price environment, when you are in an exceptional price environment. And that's how this has been designed.

Luiz，所以我將回答第一個問題，Alberto 將回答你關於合同前景的第二個問題。而且，你知道，基本上你要問的是稅收改革是如何演變的？我認為我們需要認識到，上周國會兩院批准的最新版本與之前討論的版本截然不同。我認為你幾乎可以從方向上說這是 3.0 版，並且有 1.0 版和 2.0 版。 1.0 版談到了出口稅和出口稅之類的東西。版本 2.0 談到了一個非常激進的，如果你願意的話，對 a 徵稅——或者對版稅的處理，對吧。這一切都消失了。這一切都消失了。我們現在擁有的與石油和天然氣行業相關的基本上是 3 個影響，3 個基本影響。第一個是與價格掛鉤的附加費。有一些樂隊，基本上如果你低於 60 歲，我這裡沒有確切的數字，但我認為它是 63 美元左右。你有和其他人一樣的公司稅。超過 63 美元，從 63 美元到 72 美元，我馬上會給你確切的數字。你基本上有 5%，然後從 72 美元到 83 美元，你有 10%，83 美元及以上，我們有 15%。當您查看這些稅級時，它們實際上是 - 它們實際上反映了我們對國際價格環境的理解。如果您考慮我們的計劃價格，我們可以同意，當您處於積極的價格環境中時，當您處於特殊的價格環境中時，它們確實會反映出來。這就是它的設計方式。

The other component which is our own royalties, effectively the change is that the cost of production, which has been a deductible item in the Colombian tax regime will no longer become a deductible item. So and I think that in the discretion of the tax authority and what this reform is doing is essentially taking a stand where this cost of production is no longer going to be tax deductible. In the context of the overall reform, the impact of that is not that significant. We believe it represents somewhere between 2 to 5 points of incremental taxation for the industry. But in the end of the day, we don't believe that's a deal breaker in terms of the economics of a given project.

另一個組成部分是我們自己的特許權使用費，實際上變化是生產成本，在哥倫比亞稅收制度中一直是可扣除項目，將不再成為可扣除項目。因此，我認為，在稅務機關的酌情決定下，這項改革正在做的基本上是採取一種立場，即這種生產成本不再可以免稅。在整體改革的背景下，影響並不大。我們認為它代表了該行業 2 到 5 個點的增量稅收。但歸根結底，從給定項目的經濟性來看，我們認為這不會破壞交易。

The third big topic of conversation throughout this whole tax reform debate was around the continuity of a duty-free zones, right? And the version 1.0 and version 2.0 again, had a very a strong stance around the continuity of them. They were going to go away in some shape or form. Basically, the project that is in place right now and that was already approved by the chambers, it basically maintains the tax status of the existing duty-free zones that the Ecopetrol Group has in place. So therefore, there is not going to be any negative impact associated to that. That's kind of where we are on this list. Over to Alberto.

整個稅收改革辯論的第三大話題是關於免稅區的連續性，對吧？ 1.0 版和 2.0 版再次對它們的連續性有非常強烈的立場。他們將以某種形式消失。基本上，現在已經到位並且已經獲得商會批准的項目，它基本上保持了Ecopetrol Group現有的免稅區的稅收狀況。因此，不會有任何與此相關的負面影響。這就是我們在這個名單上的位置。交給阿爾貝托。

Luiz, what are we hearing from the government? First, both the Minister of Mines and the Minister of Finance have been very welcome in stating that contracts already signed will be honoured. The Minister of Mines also have said that together with A&H and UPME are evaluated the needs of signing new contracts. So we received this news with a positive message and this reduce certainty the uncertainty that we have in the future.

路易斯，我們從政府那裡聽到了什麼？首先，礦業部長和財政部長都非常歡迎地表示已經簽署的合同將得到履行。礦業部長還表示，與 A&H 和 UPME 一起評估簽署新合同的需求。所以我們收到了這個帶有積極信息的消息，這減少了我們未來的不確定性。

With regards to reactivation of suspended contracts, I have to tell you that some of them have been suspended for social unrest, forced migrations. All the rest will need to have agreement in terms in commercial and technical terms. If those clauses for suspension are resolved, these options will have to compete with other options that we have in our portfolio. If they are competitive enough, then they will have to go through the maturation process and then at the end probably will mean that we will have exploratory options, exploratory drilling associated with these assets.

關於重新激活被暫停的合同，我不得不告訴你，其中一些已經因為社會動盪，被迫遷移而被暫停。所有其餘的都需要就商業和技術條款達成一致。如果這些暫停條款得到解決，這些選項將不得不與我們投資組合中的其他選項競爭。如果他們有足夠的競爭力，那麼他們將不得不經歷成熟過程，最後可能意味著我們將擁有與這些資產相關的探索性選擇、探索性鑽探。

Our next question comes from Andrew McCarthy from Credicorp.

我們的下一個問題來自 Credicorp 的 Andrew McCarthy。

My first question was on fracking in Colombia. Just seeing on local media at the moment, quite a lot of news flow on that. So just wondering, is it the case that the formal decision has been taken to desist from moving forward with the Kale and Platero projects? And if so, what are the key sort of steps to unwind all the sort of key contracts behind that are in place. Would there be any sort of cost or financial cost implications there for the Ecopetrol Group? So that's question number 1. Question number 2, and apologies if this has already been covered in the presentation or in the questions I couldn't quite hear. But just wondering about the whether the door is now being opened, in fact, for the possibility of signing new exploration contracts in Colombia. Any color you could share on that? And then my third and final question. Just if you could provide any update on the Invercolsa divestiture, where that is, if that's indeed still moving ahead? And then just generally on any other sort of asset rotation initiatives that you might be looking at to optimize the portfolio. That's it for me for now.

我的第一個問題是關於哥倫比亞的水力壓裂。目前僅在當地媒體上看到，關於這方面的消息相當多。所以只是想知道，是否已經做出正式決定停止推進 Kale 和 Platero 項目？如果是這樣，解除其背後所有關鍵合同的關鍵步驟是什麼。 Ecopetrol Group 是否會產生任何成本或財務成本影響？這就是第 1 個問題。第 2 個問題，如果演示文稿中或我聽不太清楚的問題中已經涵蓋了這一點，我們深表歉意。但只是想知道現在是否正在打開大門，事實上，是否有可能在哥倫比亞簽署新的勘探合同。你可以分享任何顏色嗎？然後是我的第三個也是最後一個問題。如果您可以提供有關 Invercolsa 剝離的任何更新，那是在哪裡，如果這確實仍在繼續進行？然後通常是您可能正在考慮優化投資組合的任何其他類型的資產輪換計劃。對我來說就是這樣。

Thanks, Andrew, and I'll take the first one and if there's anything Alberto you want to add on that. And on Invercolsa, I'm going to ask Nicolas Azcuenaga to give us a bit of color on that question.

謝謝，安德魯，我會拿第一個，如果阿爾貝託有什麼你想補充的。在 Invercolsa 上，我將請 Nicolas Azcuenaga 就這個問題給我們一些色彩。

So in terms of fracking and you were mentioning some of the media coverage that we've seen over the last few days. What we've said as a company is at the end of the day, the government and in particular Congress takes the decision formally that there won't be fracking in Colombia, we won't do fracking in Colombia. So I think that's very clear. We've asked A&H formally for a suspension, a 90-day suspension of the contracts that we have as operator. We've done this. Remember the Kale and Platero you were mentioning. And remember, we do have a formal environmental license on one of the projects on Kale. So what we've said is we're discussing with our partner with ExxonMobil on how to go back and do some of the commercial agreements that we had with them and then we'll take this forward. And each company will return to the ownership, the original ownership of the areas in case of Kale and Platero. So that's where we are.

因此，就水力壓裂而言，您提到了我們在過去幾天看到的一些媒體報導。作為一家公司，我們所說的是在一天結束時，政府，特別是國會正式決定在哥倫比亞不會進行水力壓裂，我們不會在哥倫比亞進行水力壓裂。所以我認為這很清楚。我們已經正式要求 A&H 暫停我們作為運營商的合同 90 天。我們已經做到了。記住你提到的羽衣甘藍和普萊特羅。請記住，我們確實擁有 Kale 項目之一的正式環境許可證。所以我們所說的是，我們正在與埃克森美孚的合作夥伴討論如何回去執行我們與他們達成的一些商業協議，然後我們將繼續推進。並且每家公司都將歸還所有權，如 Kale 和 Platero 地區的原始所有權。這就是我們所在的位置。

I would say that we will as Ecopetrol remain with the ownership of the acreage. You know, long-term, we'll see where that goes. In terms of cost implications, we've spent money on preparing for the environmental submission, the application of a license. We've done social investment in the area and we'll manage that accordingly. We don't see any issue with that. So right now I think in terms of key steps is awaiting for a response from A&H. And they're taking it from there and obviously in constant and continuous communication with our partner (technical difficulty) The potential of the already signed contracts and both of them have been very vocal in terms of honoring the existing contracts. And I think that's important. We've mentioned that we foresee eventually some ten years of activity going forward in those areas. We're not only shooting new seismic drilling wells, we had good success, as you've seen from exploration. But we're also reinterpreting seismic, which has proven to be quite useful. You know, we can do, as an example, if we do 2,000 square kilometers per year of new seismic surveys (technical difficulty) and collected. And the recent or the most recent conversations Andrew have been around the possibility of looking at additional exploration potential beyond the contracts that have already been signed. And that means I mean we've been talking to both ministries. We've sat down our technical teams with them looking at what that would entice. How would that look in terms of what's the potential, what are the options? Just sharing data and information and having open conversations around our view, our view of what the subsurface potential could be.

我想說的是，作為 Ecopetrol，我們將繼續擁有該土地的所有權。你知道，從長遠來看，我們會看到它的發展方向。在成本影響方面，我們已經花錢準備環境提交，申請許可證。我們已經在該地區進行了社會投資，我們將相應地進行管理。我們認為這沒有任何問題。所以現在我認為關鍵步驟正在等待 A&H 的回應。他們從那裡開始，顯然是在與我們的合作夥伴進行持續不斷的溝通（技術難度）已經簽署的合同的潛力，他們倆在履行現有合同方面都非常直言不諱。我認為這很重要。我們已經提到，我們預計這些領域最終將開展大約十年的活動。正如您從勘探中看到的那樣，我們不僅在拍攝新的地震鑽井，而且取得了巨大的成功。但我們也在重新解釋地震，這已被證明非常有用。你知道，我們可以做，例如，如果我們每年進行 2000 平方公里的新地震勘測（技術難度）並進行採集。安德魯最近或最近的談話一直圍繞著在已經簽署的合同之外尋找額外勘探潛力的可能性。這意味著我的意思是我們一直在與兩個部委交談。我們已經與我們的技術團隊坐下來，看看這會吸引什麼。這將如何看待潛力，有哪些選擇？只是分享數據和信息，並圍繞我們的觀點進行公開對話，我們對地下潛力的看法。

In terms of Invercolsa, Nicolas, if you can help us with where we are in the process? Go ahead.

就 Invercolsa 而言，Nicolas，您能否幫助我們了解我們在此過程中的進展情況？前進。

Yes, Felipe. Andrew, thanks for your question. First, in terms of our approach to divestments in general, so on that regard, our approach remains unchanged that is basically to constantly review our portfolio (technical difficulty) Transport, distribution, and commercialization of natural gas in Colombia, where we hold a 51.8% stake. Our decision to divest our equity remains unchanged, as announced earlier this year in May. And in due course, we will take this decision to review with the new government. As you know, this process of divestment of assets that have participation of Colombian's nation in its equity. It's ruled by Law two to 6 in Colombia, which includes the revision or the stage at which the government needs to provide a green light to proceed. So if and when we obtain this green light, we envision a process that will take around 9 months to complete.

是的，費利佩。安德魯，謝謝你的提問。首先，就我們的總體撤資方式而言，在這方面，我們的方式保持不變，基本上是不斷審查我們的投資組合（技術難度） 哥倫比亞天然氣的運輸、分銷和商業化，我們持有 51.8 % 股權。正如今年 5 月初宣布的那樣，我們剝離股權的決定保持不變。並且在適當的時候，我們將做出這個決定，與新政府進行審查。如您所知，這一資產剝離過程使哥倫比亞國家參與其股權。它由哥倫比亞的第 2 至第 6 條法律規定，其中包括修訂或政府需要提供綠燈才能繼續進行的階段。因此，如果我們獲得綠燈，我們設想一個需要大約 9 個月才能完成的過程。

Next, we have a question from Frank McGann from Bank of America.

接下來，我們有一個來自美國銀行的 Frank McGann 的問題。

Just a couple of questions, if I could. One, could you just confirm -- you mentioned in the tax discussion about the ability to deduct production costs, and I just you know if you meant total production costs or royalties only. And then in terms of cost inflation, what you seem to be doing or making a lot of efforts to where are you seeing the biggest effects?

有幾個問題，如果可以的話。一，您能否確認一下-您在稅收討論中提到了扣除生產成本的能力，我只是您知道您是指總生產成本還是僅特許權使用費。然後就成本膨脹而言，您似乎在做什麼或付出了很多努力，您在哪裡看到了最大的影響？

And are you seeing any acceleration in cost inflation as you look out over the next 6 to 12 months? And then your diluent volumes seemed to be much lower. And I'm just wondering what are the expectations for diluent usage as you go forward here? And how will that maybe affect your overall cost structure?

展望未來 6 到 12 個月，您是否看到成本上漲加速？然後你的稀釋劑體積似乎要低得多。而且我只是想知道您對稀釋劑使用的期望是什麼？這將如何影響您的整體成本結構？

Hello, Frank. Hope you're doing well. So with regards to your first question, what -- just to clarify, it's the cost of production associated to those specific royalties. So that's what currently the tax regime allows you to deduct and should the reform proceed as it has been approved in the two chambers that will no longer be a deductible item. With regards to your second question about inflation, I'm going to make an overarching comment, and then I'm going to pass it over to Alberto for some of the specifics. Generally, what we're seeing so far is that we have seen an effect of around 12% to 13% in our cost base associated to inflation.

你好，弗蘭克。希望你做得很好。所以關於你的第一個問題，什麼 - 只是為了澄清，這是與這些特定版稅相關的生產成本。因此，這就是目前稅收制度允許您扣除的內容，如果改革繼續進行，因為它已在兩個議院批准，將不再是可扣除項目。關於你關於通貨膨脹的第二個問題，我將做一個總體評論，然後我將把它交給阿爾貝託以了解一些細節。一般來說，到目前為止我們看到的是，我們已經看到與通貨膨脹相關的成本基礎產生了大約 12% 到 13% 的影響。

We have been able to mitigate probably some four or five points of that with the existing contract strategy and through demand management and through long-term pricing and the like. As we look into next year's planning and certainly to the next two, three-year horizon, we are seeing an increasing pressure in that regard. Probably that 12% to 13% is going to become something along the lines of 16%, 17%, simply due to the fact of indexes kicking in. Now of course, we're not standing still. We are looking again at value chain opportunities and contract opportunities and the like. But directionally, we are seeing an increased pressure. I'm going to pass it over to Alberto, so that he can give you some further color.

我們已經能夠通過現有的合同策略以及通過需求管理和長期定價等來緩解大約四到五個點。當我們審視明年的計劃，當然還有未來兩三年的計劃時，我們看到這方面的壓力越來越大。可能這 12% 到 13% 將變成 16%、17%，這僅僅是因為指數開始發揮作用。當然，我們並沒有停滯不前。我們再次關注價值鏈機會和合同機會等。但從方向上看，我們看到了越來越大的壓力。我要把它交給阿爾貝托，這樣他就可以給你更多的顏色。

When you look at our refining and transportation costs are very much in line with the plan. And this is because we have -- in the case of transportation, actually transported more volumes. So we keep the indicator on the control. Where we are seeing an impact is in terms of lifting costs, jumping in about 15% compared to the second quarter of this year. So right now, we have it in the lines of 9.15% of cost per barrel. But when you look at what are those areas in which we need to focus, I would say, energy cost, that's number one. The second one has to be with the cost of raw materials, particularly steel, and the third one is about the cost of well services. This is subsurface well services, intervention, well intervention costs that are going higher, particularly because of what Jaime mentioned. This is about introducing the indexes in line with the inflation that we are seeing for (inaudible).

當你看我們的煉油和運輸成本是非常符合計劃的。這是因為我們 - 在運輸的情況下，實際上運輸了更多的數量。所以我們將指標保留在控件上。我們看到的影響是在起重成本方面，與今年第二季度相比增長了約 15%。所以現在，我們的價格是每桶成本的 9.15%。但是，當您查看我們需要關注哪些領域時，我想說，能源成本是第一位的。第二個是原材料成本，尤其是鋼材，第三個是油井服務成本。這是地下油井服務、干預、油井干預成本越來越高，特別是因為 Jaime 提到的。這是關於引入與我們所看到的通貨膨脹一致的指數（聽不清）。

Our next question comes from Hernan Goicochea from LatinFinance.

我們的下一個問題來自 LatinFinance 的 Hernan Goicochea。

Yes. Okay, great. I just wanted to make sure. So I wanted to follow up a little bit on the financing options that is related to the refinancing of the loan that was used for the ISA acquisition. You mentioned that they will be looking at other options. And I remember earlier this year that there was a mention that there was a possible sustainable bond sale either later this year, at the end of this year, is there still the possibility of going to the international markets to add an option to finance for the -- to pay off the loan.

是的。好，太棒了。我只是想確定一下。因此，我想進一步了解與用於 ISA 收購的貸款再融資相關的融資方案。您提到他們將考慮其他選擇。我記得今年早些時候，有人提到可能在今年晚些時候或今年年底發行可持續債券，是否仍有可能進入國際市場為——還清貸款。

Hi Hernan, how are you? This is Jaime. Yes. So with regards to refinancing, I think there's two different buckets to speak about. The first one is the ISA acquisition loan in and by itself, and then there's like everything else, which is basically some maturities that we have at the back end of 2023. With regards to the ISA acquisition loan, which was a loan of about $3.7 billion, $3.2 billion of that has already been refinanced to -- on one end, a bond that we issued late last year and more recently, we used the a committed line that we had for $1.2 billion.

嗨，埃爾南，你好嗎？這是詹姆。是的。所以關於再融資，我認為有兩種不同的說法。第一個是 ISA 收購貸款本身，然後就像其他一切一樣，基本上是我們在 2023 年底到期的一些到期日。關於 ISA 收購貸款，大約是 3.7 美元的貸款10 億美元，其中 32 億美元已經再融資——一方面，我們去年年底發行的債券，最近，我們使用了 12 億美元的承諾額度。

So that has already been refinanced and there's a balance, if you will, a remaining balance of $450 million, $470 million to go, which we're working on. With regards to 2023 maturities, when you add this -- the balance of ISA, $470 million plus other maturities that we had at the back end of next year, we have a total balance of about $3.5 billion. And we are working with the financial system on different avenues to refinance that. Our preference at this stage is through bank loans, which we are working on. These are bank loans with a variety of time horizons.

所以這已經被再融資了，如果你願意的話，還有 4.5 億美元的餘額，還有 4.7 億美元的餘額，我們正在努力。關於 2023 年到期，當你加上這個 - ISA 的餘額，4.7 億美元加上我們在明年年底的其他到期時，我們的總餘額約為 35 億美元。我們正在與金融系統合作，通過不同的途徑為其再融資。我們現階段的偏好是通過銀行貸款，我們正在努力。這些是具有各種時間範圍的銀行貸款。

We believe that they actually give us some pretty competitive cost of debt associated to them with some very interesting extensions in terms of time horizons, which are linked to our business plan. That is our preference, I'd say. There are other options. Bonds are always an option, right? Ecopetrol has a long-standing presence in the bond market, and we are cognizant of that. And we keep that option as a possibility. I think as we monitor the credit markets at this stage and circumstances around Colombia and international macroeconomic factors, we continue to review that. I would say that's a secondary option at this stage, but it's certainly something that we do not rule out at any moment in time.

我們相信，它們實際上為我們提供了一些與它們相關的相當有競爭力的債務成本，並在時間範圍方面進行了一些非常有趣的擴展，這些擴展與我們的業務計劃相關。這是我們的偏好，我想說。還有其他選擇。債券總是一種選擇，對吧？ Ecopetrol 在債券市場上有著長期的存在，我們意識到這一點。我們保留該選項作為一種可能性。我認為，當我們監測現階段的信貸市場以及哥倫比亞周圍的情況以及國際宏觀經濟因素時，我們會繼續對其進行審查。我想說這是現階段的次要選擇，但肯定是我們在任何時候都不排除的事情。

Our next question comes from [Oriana Cobalt] from [Balance].

我們的下一個問題來自 [Balance] 的 [Oriana Cobalt]。

This is [Soriana Cobalt] with [Balance]. I had one follow-up with regards to the FEPC receivable. Just -- I understand that you're in conversations on what would be the necessary adjustments for next year to prevent the further acceleration. But if you have any ballpark estimates or view on where do you see the needed adjustments in gasoline and diesel prices as to prevent an accelerated (inaudible) of the receivable. That would be the first question.

這是[Soriana Cobalt]和[Balance]。我對 FEPC 應收賬款進行了一次跟進。只是 - 我知道您正在討論明年需要進行哪些調整以防止進一步加速。但是，如果您對汽油和柴油價格需要調整以防止應收賬款加速（聽不清）有任何大致估計或看法。那將是第一個問題。

And the second question would be more on the CapEx side. Looking at your CapEx figures for the quarter, if you can further elaborate on the inflationary pressures that account for the increase in USD terms, specifically for the exploration CapEx, which I noticed that you did the same number of exploration wells, but the figure was substantially above quarter-over-quarter and same goes for midstream business.

第二個問題更多是在資本支出方面。查看您本季度的資本支出數據，如果您可以進一步詳細說明導緻美元增長的通脹壓力，特別是勘探資本支出，我注意到您進行了相同數量的勘探井，但數字是遠高於季度環比，中游業務也是如此。

Hello [Soriana], this is Jaime. With regards to your first question around FEPC basically, you -- the balance of FEPC has been accruing at a rate of around COP2.5 billion to COP4 billion per month, depending on the month. There's actually two or three key factors that are associated to that. You have on one end, how product differentials internationally evolve.

你好 [Soriana]，我是 Jaime。關於您關於 FEPC 的第一個問題，基本上，您 - FEPC 的餘額一直在以每月 25 億至 40 億 COP 的速度增長，具體取決於月份。實際上有兩三個關鍵因素與此相關。一方面，您知道產品差異在國際上是如何演變的。

On the other hand, you have how the exchange rate evolves. And thirdly, as a major item, of course, you have the interventions that the government is making around domestic prices. I actually would argue that there's a fourth element, which is some methodological adjustments that go into a lot of detail, but they actually also influence the rate of accrual.

另一方面，你知道匯率是如何演變的。第三，作為一個主要項目，當然，政府正在圍繞國內價格進行干預。我實際上會爭辯說，還有第四個要素，即一些涉及很多細節的方法調整，但它們實際上也會影響應計率。

The extent of adjustments that need to be made will vary depending on these other factors. So you actually need to look at all the factors in unison in order to close, if you will, the gap, right, to close the gap. I'd say directionally, I'd say that the adjustments that the government has announced, certainly going in the right direction.

需要進行的調整程度將根據這些其他因素而有所不同。所以你實際上需要同時考慮所有因素，以便縮小差距，如果你願意的話，是的，縮小差距。我會說方向，我會說政府宣布的調整，肯定是朝著正確的方向發展。

And if they are maintained and implemented on a monthly basis, we believe that gap is going to be narrowed in a significant way by the end of next year, right? But again, there's always the uncertainty around how these other factors evolve. With regards to your second question around inflationary pressures in CapEx, I firstly say that the CapEx execution that you saw in 3Q is by and large and by a massive amount dictated by activity execution.

如果它們按月維護和實施，我們相信到明年年底差距將大大縮小，對吧？但同樣，這些其他因素如何演變始終存在不確定性。關於你關於資本支出通脹壓力的第二個問題，我首先說你在第三季度看到的資本支出執行基本上是由活動執行決定的。

It is by no means a result of inflation I think the inflation that we have seen in our CapEx outlay so far has been minimum. What you're seeing is basically the result of an increased activity set where we have more rigs, we have more workover units. We have more crews in the ground, and that is actually translating into more production. So that's really the headwind. Now as we look into next year, as we look into next year and more longer-term CapEx deployment, inflation, it does become a factor. It does become a factor.

這絕不是通貨膨脹的結果，我認為迄今為止我們在資本支出中看到的通貨膨脹是最低的。你所看到的基本上是活動增加的結果，我們有更多的鑽機，我們有更多的修井裝置。我們在地面上有更多的工作人員，這實際上轉化為更多的生產。所以這真的是逆風。現在，當我們展望明年，展望明年以及更長期的資本支出部署時，通貨膨脹確實成為一個因素。它確實成為一個因素。

As we sign new contracts associated to those capital projects inflation will be a factor. And I'd say that depending on the specific commodity subsector or service subsector, those effects can be anywhere between 10% to 20%, anywhere in that range. I think you would have to go into the specifics of each project to see to what extent they are mitigated or not. I would say, as a gross average, I would say that a CapEx effect next year of between 13% to 50% is a reasonable estimate. I hope this helps, Soriana .

當我們簽署與這些資本項目相關的新合同時，通貨膨脹將成為一個因素。我想說的是，根據具體的商品子行業或服務子行業，這些影響可能在 10% 到 20% 之間，在這個範圍內的任何地方。我認為你必須深入了解每個項目的細節，看看它們在多大程度上得到了緩解。我想說，作為一個總平均值，我會說明年 13% 到 50% 的資本支出效應是一個合理的估計。我希望這會有所幫助，索里亞娜。

Our next question comes from Badr El Moutawakil from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Badr El Moutawakil。

Yes. Congrats on your earnings. Two quick questions for me. First one is are you expecting to receive any FEPC payments from any excess cash from Hacienda by year-end? I think that we read on the news that Ecopetrol could potentially receive something around COP7 trillion in year-end in addition of the COP19 trillion that Jaime you mentioned earlier on the call. So just curious if you have any updates in terms of that? And my second question is regarding your gross debt level for 2023.

是的。恭喜你的收入。給我兩個快速的問題。第一個是您是否希望在年底前從 Hacienda 的任何多餘現金中收到任何 FEPC 付款？我認為我們從新聞中了解到，除了 Jaime 你之前在電話會議上提到的 19 萬億 COP 之外，Ecopetrol 可能會在年底收到大約 7 萬億 COP 的收益。所以只是好奇你是否有任何更新？我的第二個問題是關於您 2023 年的總債務水平。

So are you thinking about keeping the gross debt stable around $24 billion? I'm just asking because if I look at the company right now, in 2022, full year picture, and I just try to do like a quick parallel in 2023, this new government is going to increase taxes, let's say, by COP5 trillion on Ecopetrol also depending on the assumptions. And so the increase in terms of taxes and obviously, on the upstream is not -- based on our model, it's not going to offset the pressure from the FEPC.

那麼，您是否正在考慮將總債務保持在 240 億美元左右？我只是在問，因為如果我現在看一下公司，2022 年全年的情況，我只是試著在 2023 年做一個快速的平行，這個新政府將增加稅收，比如說，增加 5 萬億 COP在 Ecopetrol 上也取決於假設。所以稅收的增加，顯然，上游不是 - 根據我們的模型，它不會抵消來自 FEPC 的壓力。

And even if we increase local prices by, let's call it, 20% we don't have the FEPC balance and the working capital balance offsetting these taxes. So just curious if you can give us some -- your view in terms of gross debt in 2023 and then potentially with the risk of funding any dividends or potentially these higher taxes with gross debt or you don't think so? You think that you can fund it extensively with cash.

即使我們將當地價格提高 20%，我們也沒有 FEPC 餘額和營運資金餘額來抵消這些稅收。所以只是好奇你是否可以給我們一些 - 你對 2023 年總債務的看法，然後可能有為任何股息提供資金的風險或可能用總債務支付更高的稅收，或者你不這麼認為？你認為你可以用現金廣泛地資助它。

So let me address your different questions. I'd say, firstly, let's start with expectations around FEPC payments so this year. So there are no further FEPC payments budgeted in Hacienda as in the Ministry of Finance budget for this year. However, there is the flexibility, the legal flexibility to apply excess budget surpluses to FEPC, right? The extent to which those budget surpluses are going to occur or not is yet being defined, right? It's yet being defined. In our conversations with the Ministry of Finance we've discussed that as a possibility, but it is yet an uncertain one.

所以讓我來解決你的不同問題。我想說，首先，讓我們從今年對 FEPC 支付的期望開始。因此，沒有像財政部今年的預算那樣，在 Hacienda 預算中進一步支付 FEPC。但是，將超額預算盈餘應用於 FEPC 具有靈活性，法律上的靈活性，對嗎？這些預算盈餘將在多大程度上出現與否尚未確定，對吧？它尚未被定義。在我們與財政部的對話中，我們已經討論過這是一種可能性，但目前還不確定。

So I would say that the base case is no further FEPC payments this year, but there is an upside that, that occurs, and that's something that we are actively working with the Ministry of Finance. With regards to your second question around gross debt levels basically, we closed with a healthy gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio in the third quarter, and that's going to continue to be reduced over the next few months. And the outlook is a positive one for next year. I think the extent to which we're going to incur incremental debt or not next year is going to depend on the assessment of the timing in which the FEPC payments are going to come in and at the same time, how capital markets evolve. I think it's going to be -- all those factors are going to have to be considered.

所以我想說，基本情況是今年不再支付 FEPC，但有一個好處，那就是發生了，這就是我們正在與財政部積極合作的事情。關於你關於總債務水平的第二個問題，我們在第三季度以健康的總債務與 EBITDA 比率結束，並且在接下來的幾個月中將繼續降低。明年的前景是積極的。我認為明年我們將在多大程度上產生增量債務將取決於對 FEPC 支付的時間以及資本市場如何演變的評估。我認為這將是 - 所有這些因素都必須考慮。

All those factors are going to have to be considered. I think it's still premature to give you a view on that. We're going to be discussing with the Board over the coming weeks, what is our view on the investment plan for next year? What is the optionality that we see around that investment plan? What are the trade-offs associated to the investment plan with regards to cash with regards to a potential dividend payments and decisions are going to be made on that basis. But what I would say is that we do have a very strong inclination to protect the investment plan.

所有這些因素都將不得不考慮。我認為現在就給你一個看法還為時過早。我們將在接下來的幾週內與董事會討論，我們對明年的投資計劃有何看法？我們圍繞該投資計劃看到的可選性是什麼？與現金相關的投資計劃與潛在的股息支付和決策相關的權衡是什麼，將在此基礎上做出決定。但我想說的是，我們確實有非常強烈的意願來保護投資計劃。

We have a strong inclination to protect the debt levels that we have at this stage, but we are keeping our flexibility. We are keeping our flexibility because things are dynamic. And what is going to be the best combination to protect value for the company is something that is yet to be determined. With regards to your third question around working capital balance and how to offset the pressure of FEPC, clearly, I'd say two things. The first thing is that we are approaching this conversation from a healthy place. I mentioned in the call in Spanish that our free cash flow in 3Q is the best free cash flow in the company's history, the first free cash flow in the company's history ever.

我們強烈傾向於保護現階段的債務水平，但我們正在保持靈活性。我們保持靈活性，因為事情是動態的。什麼是保護公司價值的最佳組合還有待確定。關於你關於營運資金平衡的第三個問題，以及如何抵消 FEPC 的壓力，很明顯，我想說兩件事。第一件事是我們正在從一個健康的地方進行這次對話。我在西班牙語電話會議中提到，我們第三季度的自由現金流是公司歷史上最好的自由現金流，是公司歷史上第一筆自由現金流。

And it's obviously a combination of multiple factors, but it is accumulating as opposed to liberating. So it's more rather and less. And that helps a lot. Now to what extent that can fully offset an accumulating FEPC indefinitely, I'd say the answer is no, we can't. It cannot. It will not fully offset the FEPC effect, and that's why COP19 trillion were included in the national budget. And that's why we are in discussions with the government to increase that amount. I think that is something that is going to evolve over the coming months and probably in our next call, we can give you a better view of that. That's where we are.

這顯然是多種因素的結合，但它是在積累而不是解放。所以它越來越少。這很有幫助。現在，在多大程度上可以無限期地完全抵消累積的 FEPC，我會說答案是否定的，我們不能。這不可以。它不會完全抵消 FEPC 效應，這就是為什麼 COP19 萬億被納入國家預算的原因。這就是為什麼我們正在與政府討論增加這一數額的原因。我認為這將在未來幾個月內發生變化，可能在我們的下一次電話會議中，我們可以讓你更好地了解這一點。這就是我們所在的地方。

Coming up the next, we have a question from Andres Cardona from Citibank.

接下來，我們有一個來自花旗銀行的 Andres Cardona 的問題。

I have 2 questions. The first is, as you have $4 billion to $5 billion per year incremental cost due to the tax reform. Can you let us know what are the assumptions you are using there in terms of oil prices? If you kind of split that cost between the (inaudible) and non-deductibility of the royalties? And the last question is, if you can give us an update on how many development wells are you targeting to drill in 2022?

我有 2 個問題。第一個是，由於稅收改革，您每年有 40 億至 50 億美元的增量成本。您能否告訴我們您在油價方面使用的假設是什麼？如果您在特許權使用費的（聽不清）和不可扣除之間分配該成本？最後一個問題是，您能否告訴我們您計劃在 2022 年鑽多少口開發井的最新信息？

Andres, I'm going to take the first one, your question is related to the tax refund. So we haven't given an estimate around what is the tax reform impact for the company. And I can assure you that it's not $4 billion to $5 billion. I think we need to look at the basics and the basics are we have a tax effective rate of 35% currently or about 35%, depending on whether you're looking at a group level, Ecopetrol, Asia, separate level. And depending on your price outlook, you need to add either 5%, 10% or 15% to that.

安德烈斯，我要拿第一個，你的問題是關於退稅的。因此，我們沒有估計稅改對公司的影響。我可以向你保證，這不是 40 億到 50 億美元。我認為我們需要了解基本情況，基本情況是我們目前的有效稅率為 35% 或約 35%，這取決於您是否在查看集團級別、Ecopetrol、亞洲、單獨級別。根據您的價格前景，您需要增加 5%、10% 或 15%。

In the highest possible case, which is in a scenario where we end up over the $83-or-so per barrel kind of threshold that kicks in the 15% surcharge, that tax effective rate is going to go to about 50%, right? And it's 50% on our total net income in pesos. So that's the way that you need to calculate it. The split of what is associated to the surcharge (inaudible) and the royalties is that 90% to 95% of the effect is associated to the surcharge and the marginal amount is associated to royalties. Royalties, the new treatment of royalties is not a substantial amount as compared to the effect of the surcharge on corporate tax. And I hope this addresses your question. Over to Alberto.

在最高可能的情況下，也就是我們最終超過每桶 83 美元左右的門檻並徵收 15% 的附加費時，實際稅率將達到 50% 左右，對吧？這是我們以比索計算的總淨收入的 50%。所以這就是你需要計算它的方式。與附加費（聽不清）和特許權使用費相關的部分是，90% 到 95% 的影響與附加費相關，而邊際金額與特許權使用費相關。特許權使用費，與附加費對公司稅的影響相比，特許權使用費的新處理方式並不重要。我希望這能解決你的問題。交給阿爾貝托。

Hi Andres, what we have said is that for this year will be around 580 wells and for next year, around 600 wells, development wells.

嗨安德烈斯，我們所說的是今年將有大約 580 口井，明年將有大約 600 口井，開發井。

Our next question comes from Andres Duarte from Corficolombiana.

我們的下一個問題來自 Corficolombiana 的 Andres Duarte。

I have 1 question. Can you please brief me -- sorry, brief us on the carbon shadow prices you're using to price your projects today. And please remind us if the current tax reform includes a carbon tax component?

我有 1 個問題。能否請您簡要介紹一下——抱歉，請簡要介紹一下您今天用來為項目定價的碳影子價格。請提醒我們當前的稅制改革是否包括碳稅部分？

Hi Andres. How are you? So with regards to carbon taxes, the approach in the company has been around employing what we call carbon shadow price. Basically what that is, is it's a theoretical level of a carbon impact that is included in the valuation of forward economics in projects that we are reviewing. Basically, the way that it has been implemented is that we -- if you will, we punish the projects that we're evaluating with an incremental cost associated to the ton of carbon that the unitary ton of carbon that a project produces.

嗨安德烈斯。你好嗎？因此，關於碳稅，公司的做法一直圍繞著採用我們所說的碳影子價格。基本上，它是碳影響的理論水平，包含在我們正在審查的項目的前瞻性經濟學估值中。基本上，它的實施方式是我們——如果你願意的話，我們會懲罰我們正在評估的項目，增加與項目產生的單位噸碳相關的碳噸成本。

Basically, the way that we have been modeling that out is that we use a $20 per ton for the next five years, then it goes up to $30 per ton and eventually it goes up to $40 per ton. It is a theoretical economic impact. This has no cash impact whatsoever, but what it does is that it allows us to prioritize projects and to measure projects in terms of their carbon footprint competitiveness. What this will do is that it will -- and what this actually does is that it actually, in a way, rewards projects that have a low carbon footprint in that they don't have to reflect that cost burden and it punishes projects with a high carbon footprint through an incremental cost.

基本上，我們一直在建模的方式是，我們在未來五年內使用每噸 20 美元，然後升至每噸 30 美元，最終升至每噸 40 美元。這是理論上的經濟影響。這對現金沒有任何影響，但它的作用是讓我們能夠優先考慮項目並根據碳足跡競爭力來衡量項目。這將做的就是它會 - 它實際上做的是它實際上在某種程度上獎勵具有低碳足蹟的項目，因為它們不必反映成本負擔並且它懲罰項目通過增加成本實現高碳足跡。

Again, it's theoretical, right? It's not -- these amounts do not go to a purse. They do not go to a fund or anything like that, and they don't have any cash implication as of now. As we look into the future, we are looking at mechanisms to see whether eventually, this could actually translate into a real fund whereby what we accumulate in the fund is used to fund energy transition projects, right? But again, this is something that is still on paper and that we are debating as a best practice in the industry. With regards to the carbon tax as such, in Colombia, there is an existing carbon tax that it has different mechanisms of the measure, but it ultimately translates into the equivalent of $4 per tonne of immediate carbon to the system.

再說一遍，這是理論上的，對吧？不是 - 這些金額不會進入錢包。他們不去基金或類似的東西，到目前為止，他們沒有任何現金影響。當我們展望未來時，我們正在研究機制，看看最終是否真的可以轉化為真正的基金，我們在基金中積累的資金用於資助能源轉型項目，對嗎？但同樣，這仍然是紙上談兵，我們正在作為行業最佳實踐進行辯論。關於碳稅本身，在哥倫比亞，現有的碳稅有不同的措施機制，但最終轉化為相當於系統每噸直接碳 4 美元。

What the tax reform does is that it takes that $4 per ton, and it takes it on average, on average, to about $20 per ton, right? On average, this depends on the specific product, and it depends on the place in the value chain where you're actually asked, right? Within the Ecopetrol Group, Ecopetrol Asia and (inaudible) are responsible for this tax, they either pay it directly or indirectly, right? But it does have an effect on them. In the context of the total tax reform numbers that we have been discussing, it is not a material item.

稅制改革的作用是每噸需要 4 美元，平均到每噸大約 20 美元，對嗎？平均而言，這取決於具體的產品，也取決於實際詢問您的價值鏈中的位置，對嗎？在 Ecopetrol 集團內，Ecopetrol Asia 和（聽不清）負責此稅，他們直接或間接支付，對嗎？但它確實對他們有影響。在我們一直在討論的稅制改革總數的背景下，這不是一個重要項目。

At this moment, we have no further questions. Mr. Bayon, do you have any final remarks?

目前，我們沒有進一步的問題。巴永先生，您有什麼最後的話嗎？

Well, thanks, and I just want to thank everyone for taking part in today's conference call. Thanks for the interest in Ecopetrol. Thanks for the questions. Hope to see you sometime soon, and please stay safe. Have a great day.

嗯，謝謝，我只想感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。感謝您對 Ecopetrol 的關注。感謝您的提問。希望很快能見到你，請注意安全。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you, everyone. You may disconnect now.

謝謝大家。您現在可以斷開連接。