使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Enis 2026 first-half results conference call hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. (Operator Instructions) I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.
各位女士、先生,下午好,歡迎參加由執行長 Claudio Descalzi 先生主持的 Enis 2026 年上半年業績電話會議。(接線員指示) 我現在把電話交給主持人,開始今天的會議。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Thank you. Good morning. Good afternoon for being with us today. Our second quarter and first half results clearly reflect our successful execution of the strategy and the objectives we have consistently communicated. In Q2, Eni generated EUR5.4 billion pro forma EBIT and EUR2.3 billion net income both doubling year-on-year and EUR4.5 billion of cash flow from operations, up over 60%.
謝謝。早安。下午好,感謝各位今天與我們一同參與。我們第二季及上半年業績清楚反映出,我們成功執行了既定策略與我們一貫對外溝通的目標。第二季,Eni 產生 54 億歐元的備考 EBIT 與 23 億歐元淨利,兩者皆較去年同期倍增,營運現金流 45 億歐元,成長超過 60%。
This growth significantly outpaced the increase in Brent prices over the same period, demonstrating the strength of our operating leverage and our ability to absorb a highly unfavorable foreign exchange environment. Looking at the first half of the year, we delivered a remarkable 40% year-on-year increase in pro forma EBIT. Reported gearing remained stable quarter-on-quarter while pro forma gearing declined to 10%, reaching the lower end of our target range. Overall, this performance reflects excellent operational execution, effective capture of market opportunities and the continued delivery of our consistent strategy.
此一成長顯著超越同期布蘭特油價的漲幅,展現我們營運槓桿的強度,以及在極為不利的外匯環境下仍具吸收衝擊的能力。就上半年而言,我們交出備考 EBIT 年增 40% 的亮眼表現。申報槓桿比率(gearing)較上季維持穩定,而備考槓桿比率降至 10%,達到我們目標區間的下緣。整體而言,這些表現反映出卓越的營運執行、有效掌握市場機會,以及持續落實我們一致的策略。
The first half of 2026 marked by the emergence of a new crisis, the Gulf has once again put our industry to extraordinary volatility. Yet any, as demonstrated its ability to effectively meet gas turn on pressures. Our resilience is underpinned by a broad geographic diversification, strong operational efficiency and the deployment of proprietary technologies.
2026 年上半年在新危機浮現之際,波斯灣再次使本產業面臨極端波動。然而,Eni 如同所展現的,具備有效因應天然氣供應緊張壓力的能力。我們的韌性奠基於廣泛的地理多元化、強勁的營運效率,以及自有技術的部署。
At the same time, our robust organic growth continues to be fueled by our outstanding exploration success and a deep pipeline of development opportunities. Most importantly, our growth is increasingly multidimensional. While exploration and production remains our highly competitive core business, we are rapidly scanning attractive growth platforms right across the energy value chain. Specifically, I would like to highlight three key pillars of our strategy.
同時,我們強勁的內生成長持續由卓越的勘探成果與深厚的開發機會管線所驅動。更重要的是,我們的成長正日益呈現多維度。雖然勘探與生產仍是我們高度具競爭力的核心業務,但我們正快速在整個能源價值鏈上尋找具吸引力的成長平台。具體而言,我想強調我們策略的三大關鍵支柱。
First, diversification. We are well diversified across the geographies, businesses and technologies, while some of our operations have been affected by events in the Middle East, the overall impact has not been material. Actions taken in 2026 have further strengthened this diversification, increasing our exposure to Asia in South America expanding our transition-related businesses and opening new opportunity in trading activities, critical minerals and stationary batteries.
第一,多元化。我們在地理區域、業務與技術上均具良好多元配置;雖然部分營運受到中東事件影響,但整體衝擊並不重大。2026 年採取的行動進一步強化此一多元化:提高我們對亞洲與南美的曝險、擴大轉型相關業務,並在交易活動、關鍵礦物與固定式電池方面開啟新機會。
Second, growth. We continue to deliver a unique double engine of growth, combining industry-leading organic upstream production with a rapid parallel expansion in low carbon energy.
第二,成長。我們持續交付獨特的雙引擎成長:結合業界領先的上游內生產量成長,以及低碳能源的快速並行擴張。
Third, financial performance. We continue to generate standing financial results with over 60% of our original plan targets already met year-to-date. Also thanks to the pipeline to market of our projects. Our satellite model increasingly acknowledged as a material positive financiator for Eni continues to derisk the balance sheet attracting third-party capital to fund our expansion across new technologies and geographies.
第三,財務表現。我們持續創造穩健的財務成果,年初至今已達成原始計畫目標的 60% 以上。這也得益於我們專案從管線到市場的推進。我們的衛星模式日益被認可為 Eni 重要的正向財務推動力,持續降低資產負債表風險,並吸引第三方資本,為我們在新技術與新地理區域的擴張提供資金。
Turning to upstream. We delivered an outstanding 8% year-on-year reported production growth. In the first half of the year or 11% underlying, we fully offset Middle East volume losses, thanks to the efficient execution of major operating projects, including Agogo, in Angola, Amoca Mexico, Congo Phase 1 as well as a strong contribution from Var Energy. This growth is entirely organic and reflect investment and exploration successes achieved over several years.
接著談上游。我們交出年增 8% 的申報產量成長。上半年(或按基礎口徑為 11%),我們藉由高效率執行多項重大營運專案,完全抵銷中東的產量損失,包括安哥拉 Agogo、墨西哥 Amoca、剛果第一期,以及 Var Energy 的強勁貢獻。此一成長完全來自內生,反映我們多年來的投資與勘探成功。
As discussed during Q1, our unique 2026 exploration performance has added over 1 billion barrels of new resources supported by credible development pathways. This success is driven by key discoveries, including Algaita-01 in Angola, Moran South 1 in Codere to offshore gas discoveries near Baracalam in Libya, the limits discovery of Shore Egypt and the giant Galligan gas ground and condensate discovery in Indonesia.
如同在第一季所討論,我們 2026 年獨特的勘探表現新增超過 10 億桶新資源,並有可信的開發路徑支撐。此一成功來自多項關鍵發現,包括安哥拉 Algaita-01、Codere 的 Moran South 1、利比亞 Baracalam 附近的離岸天然氣發現、埃及 Shore 的 Limits 發現,以及印尼巨型 Galligan 氣田與凝析油發現。
We have further refreshed our future pipeline with new acreage position in Uruguay, Timo list and Gambia. Furthermore, to secure our medium-term production capacity during the plan period, we have sanctioned three major projects: Balan Phase 3 in Cote d'Ivoire, Geng North in Indonesia and Cronos in Cyprus. Beyond these projects, we are reshaping our global footprint through the blue buildup of 2 diversified regional clusters.
我們也透過在烏拉圭、Timo list 與甘比亞的新區塊部位,進一步更新未來專案管線。此外,為在計畫期間確保中期產能,我們已核准三項重大專案:象牙海岸 Balan 第三期、印尼 Geng North,以及賽普勒斯 Cronos。除上述專案外,我們也正透過建立兩個多元化的區域集群,重塑我們的全球版圖。
In Asia, the CR business combination completed in June, created our largest satellite platform to date and established a leading player in the Pacific region. Initial production exceeded expectations surpassing 300,000 barrels per day and backed by a 3 billion-barrel reserve upside. It has a clear path to approach 800,000 barrel per day by 2030.
在亞洲,CR 業務合併已於 6 月完成,打造迄今規模最大的衛星平台,並在太平洋地區建立領先業者地位。初期產量超出預期,突破每日 30 萬桶,並有 30 億桶儲量上行空間支撐。其具備清晰路徑,於 2030 年前接近每日 80 萬桶。
In the Americas, we continue to advance significant opportunities in Argentina and Venezuela, which together with our existing position in Mexico and the United States represent an increasingly important component of our upstream portfolio. In detail, in Venezuela, we are finalizing a negotiation for new contracts, for Konin and Corocoro. Simultaneously, we have finalized the gas export agreement for the giant Perla field, collectively, our footprint in Venezuela unlocks an outstanding gross potential of more than 5.5 billion barrels of recoverable resources.
在美洲,我們持續推進阿根廷與委內瑞拉的重要機會;連同我們在墨西哥與美國的既有布局,正成為上游投資組合中日益重要的組成。具體而言,在委內瑞拉,我們正完成 Konin 與 Corocoro 新合約的談判。同時,我們已完成巨型 Perla 氣田的天然氣出口協議;綜合而言,我們在委內瑞拉的布局可釋放超過 55 億桶可採資源的卓越總量潛力。
Meanwhile, in Argentina, our newly consolidated asset all an exceptional 25 Tcf of gas equivalent to 4.3 billion barrel of recoverable resources, plus an additional 500 million-barrel condensate bringing total gross recoverable resources in the country to 4.8 billion barrels. The new material initiatives in Argentina, Venezuela, East Asia, together with our African portfolio, provide absolute confidence in our long-term trajectory.
同時在阿根廷,我們新近併表的資產擁有非凡的 25 兆立方英尺(Tcf)天然氣,相當於 43 億桶可採資源,另加 5 億桶凝析油,使該國總可採資源總量達 48 億桶。阿根廷、委內瑞拉、東亞的新重大舉措,加上我們的非洲投資組合,讓我們對長期發展軌跡充滿信心。
As a result, we now expect production growth to be around 4% CAGR guidance through 2030, while we are also developing a unique visibility on a further wave of growth opportunities beyond 2030. Importantly, through portfolio high grading and strategic moves like our recently announced Mercuria joint venture, this volume growth will translate directly into cash flow. Underpinning our primary target, growing our upstream free cash flow per barrel by more than 50% by 2030.
因此,我們目前預期至 2030 年的產量成長約為 4% 的年複合成長率(CAGR)指引;同時,我們也正建立對 2030 年後下一波成長機會的獨特能見度。重要的是,透過投資組合汰弱留強與策略性舉措(例如我們近期宣布的 Mercuria 合資案),此一產量成長將直接轉化為現金流。並支撐我們的主要目標:到 2030 年將上游每桶自由現金流提高 50% 以上。
Our Q2 results demonstrate any stability both to capture favorable market conditions and to enhance underlying profitability. E&P delivered outstanding production growth and successfully captured the benefits of the market environment with particular strong contributions from Norway and Congo. GGP generated pro forma EBIT of EUR0.47 billion confirming better-than-expected performance and supporting a further increase in our EBIT guidance to over EUR1.4 billion. We also see additional upside potential in the second half supported by current pricing conditions and inventory replenishment dynamics.
我們第二季業績顯示 Eni 具備穩定性,既能掌握有利的市場條件,也能提升基礎獲利能力。勘探與生產(E&P)交出卓越的產量成長,並成功把握市場環境帶來的效益,其中挪威與剛果貢獻尤為強勁。GGP 產生 4.7 億歐元備考 EBIT,確認表現優於預期,並支持我們將 EBIT 指引進一步上調至超過 14 億歐元。在目前價格條件與庫存回補動能支撐下,我們也看到下半年仍有額外上行潛力。
Plenti and Eni and I together generated EUR670 million of pro forma EBITDA in the quarter and EUR1.13 billion in the first half, supporting an increase in full year guidance to EUR2.6 billion compared with the original EUR2.4 billion. Within transformation businesses, refinery utilization recovered following the major turnaround activities completed during the first half. Mercari also continued to reduce losses in line with the improvement plan, also supported by better market conditions.
Plenti 與 Eni(以及我)合計在本季產生 6.7 億歐元備考 EBITDA,上半年為 11.3 億歐元,支持我們將全年指引上調至 26 億歐元,高於原先的 24 億歐元。在轉型業務方面,煉油廠利用率在上半年完成主要歲修後已恢復。Mercari 亦持續依改善計畫縮減虧損,並同時受惠於較佳的市場條件。
Contribution from associates benefited from supporting macroeconomic conditions and the consolidation of Searah from June onward. The first half tax rate of approximately 39% was below our full year guidance, reflecting the impact of high grading upstream production. The accounting impact of satellite, the transition towards more sustainability, diversified overall income mix and the benefit of our restructuring and performance improvement initiatives.
來自聯營公司的貢獻受惠於有利的總體經濟環境,以及自6月起併入Searah。上半年約39%的稅率低於我們的全年指引,反映上游產量高品位化(high grading)的影響。衛星(satellite)的會計影響、向更永續方向的轉型,使整體收入組合更為多元,並受惠於我們的重組與績效改善計畫。
Cash flow from operations remained strong, supported by dividend contribution from associates and continued working capital improvement. Operational working capital generated a positive contribution in the quarter, and we continue to expect an overall reduction throughout 2026. Capital expenditure amounted to EUR1.8 billion in Q2, and we continue to expect approximately EUR7 billion of gross CapEx for the full year while we also reduced the net figure to below EUR5 billion.
營運活動現金流維持強勁,受惠於聯營公司股利貢獻以及持續的營運資金改善。本季營運資金對現金流帶來正向貢獻,我們仍預期至2026年整體將持續下降。第二季資本支出為18億歐元;我們仍預期全年總資本支出約70億歐元,同時也將淨資本支出下調至50億歐元以下。
We paid the fort and final quarterly dividend related to 2025 and repurchased EUR600 millions of shares. Since 2021 outstanding shares have been reduced by around 18%. In light of the raised guidance for CFFO to EUR15 billion, we now expect to repurchase EUR3.4 billion of shares in the 2026 program representing a combined yield to our investors of around 10%. Pro forma gearing at the quarter end remained at 10%, the lower end of our target range and we expect reported gearing to converge to our debt level by year-end.
我們支付了與2025年相關的第四次也是最後一次季度股利,並回購了6億歐元的股份。自2021年以來,流通在外股數已減少約18%。鑑於CFFO指引上調至150億歐元,我們目前預期在2026年回購計畫中回購34億歐元股份,對投資人合計回饋率約10%。本季季末備考(pro forma)槓桿比率維持在10%,位於目標區間下緣;我們預期至年底,報表槓桿比率將收斂至我們的負債水準。
In conclusion, the combination of our upstream positioning and growth outlook, our integration across the entire energy value chain, the increasing value creation from our transition businesses and our strong financial foundation position us competitively in a world that has entered a new energy paradigm. This confirmed by the revised guidance for most of our business is that translate into an increased distribution.
總結而言,我們的上游布局與成長前景、橫跨整個能源價值鏈的一體化整合、轉型業務日益提升的價值創造,以及強健的財務基礎,使我們在已進入新能源典範的世界中具備競爭優勢。這一點由我們對多數業務修訂後的指引所確認,並將轉化為更高的分配。
Underlying oil and gas production growth is now seen exceeding 5% above the upper end of the previous range. GGP pro forma EBIT is raised to over EUR1.4 billion, plus 40% compared with the initial level. In pro forma adjusted EBITDA is revised up by 18% at EUR1.3 billion. And at a revised scenario of 85% dollar per barrel brand, adjusted CFFO is expected at EUR15 billion, returning a higher buyback of EUR3.4 billion.
目前預期油氣基礎產量成長將超過5%,高於先前區間上緣。GGP備考EBIT上調至超過14億歐元,較初始水準增加40%。備考調整後EBITDA上修18%至13億歐元。在修訂情境(每桶85美元布蘭特)下,調整後CFFO預期為150億歐元,並帶來更高的回購規模34億歐元。
The new buyback represents 127% increase over the initial guidance of EUR1.5 billion at the budgeted cash flow. The potential special dividend related to oil price above $90 per barrel or gas price and SEM margin. More than 50% of the original budget assumptions will be (inaudible) in the last quarter. In this environment Eni is in one of the strongest position in its history.
新的回購規模較以預算現金流為基礎的初始指引15億歐元增加127%。若油價高於每桶90美元,或氣價與SEM利差(margin)高於假設,可能發放特別股利。原始預算假設中超過50%將在最後一季(聽不清)實現。在此環境下,Eni正處於其歷史上最強勢的地位之一。
That concludes my marking together with my colleagues, from any management team, I'm ready to take your questions. Thank you.
以上是我與同事們的簡報結語;代表管理團隊,我已準備好回答各位的提問。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) I now leave the floor to Mr. Jon Rigby the Q&A session.
(接線生指示)現在把Q&A時段交給Jon Rigby先生。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
(Event Instructions)
(活動指示)
We'll start with Alejandro Vigil at Santander. Alex?
我們先從Santander的Alejandro Vigil開始。Alex?
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Yes. Thank you for taking my qeustion. The first question is about the guidance about production. Definitely, this year looks very strong also with the Searah consolidation. If you can give us numbers about the outlook of 2030 of production just to have some indication of the range of potential volumes that year. And the second question is about the European natural gas market. You mentioned that in the guidance for global gas and LNG, you are not including any upside from the current situation. If you can elaborate about how you see the second half of the year. Thank you.
是的。謝謝讓我提問。第一個問題是關於產量指引。今年看起來非常強勁,也包含Searah的併表。能否提供2030年產量展望的數字,讓我們對當年可能的產量區間有個概念。第二個問題是關於歐洲天然氣市場。你們提到在全球天然氣與LNG的指引中,並未納入目前情勢帶來的任何上行空間。能否進一步說明你們如何看待下半年。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Thank you for production so I think I -- Guido we do will take over for the question and were very well, okay. Is there a crestal there for Cristian to give you an update on the gas in the second half, as you asked.
謝謝。關於產量,我想我——Guido,我們會接手回答這個問題,沒問題。至於你問到下半年天然氣的部分,是否請Cristian補充更新。
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Yes. So on production, of course, you noticed that we have improved our guidance in 2026. Originally, we provided a range of 3% to 4% growth underlying, which now increased to 5%, and this is coming for -- from a higher contribution from some country like Libya, Mexico, Kazakhstan and of course, the anticipation of the business combination in Searah. While for the 2030, we also provided in a stronger support to our originally provided guidance. And you have noticed that we have accelerated some major FID. We have included some projects, which initially were beyond 2030, and that we have now anticipated to the 2030 plan.
好的。關於產量,當然你也注意到我們已上調2026年的指引。原先我們提供的基礎成長區間為3%到4%,現在提高到5%;這主要來自部分國家(如利比亞、墨西哥、哈薩克)的更高貢獻,當然也包括對Searah業務合併的提前反映。至於2030年,我們也對原先提供的指引給予更強的支撐。你也注意到我們加速推進了一些重大FID。我們納入了一些原本在2030年之後的專案,現在已提前納入2030年計畫。
Cristian Signoretto - Director of the Global Gas and LNG Portfolio
Cristian Signoretto - Director of the Global Gas and LNG Portfolio
So just to give some more color on our production, if we look at all the projects that were in our slide, we have 54 projects. They're coming from our organic growth. So our exploration is something that is coming from the exploration we performed in the last 10 years. And most of these projects are ready in a very -- so we talk the FID. Some are really in execution, but most of them are with the PD done.
再補充一些我們產量的細節:如果看我們投影片中的所有專案,共有54個專案。這些來自我們的有機成長。也就是說,這些產量來自我們過去10年所進行的勘探成果。而且多數專案已經非常——我們談的是FID。有些確實已在執行中,但大多數已完成PD。
So that is going to give that 4% as Guido said by 2030 and is going to confirm a solid growth also after 2030.
因此,如Guido所說,到2030年將帶來4%的成長,並且也將確認2030年之後仍有穩健成長。
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
So when it comes to the gas market scenario for the second half, I would say our scenario is currently in line with the forward curves, as you can see. But I think we can say that the situation is fairly fragile given the geopolitical situation and, let's say, delay in the replenishment of the European storage. So we think that depending clearly on the evolution of the situation, we can see upside potential in terms of volatility and flat price numbers when it comes to the second half and I think the idea is that we are ready, clearly, with our assets to take advantage of that situation.
至於下半年天然氣市場情境,我會說我們目前的情境與遠期曲線一致,如你所見。但我認為在地緣政治情勢以及歐洲儲氣補庫進度延遲的情況下,局勢相當脆弱。因此,我們認為視情勢演變而定,下半年在波動度與平價(flat price)方面可能存在上行空間;我們的想法是,我們已明確準備好以資產組合把握這種情況。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. Biraj, are you there?
RBC的Biraj Borkhataria。Biraj,你在線上嗎?
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
The first is just on Venezuela, which you touched on in your initial remarks, there were some reports recently that the government had presented new terms to the industry. I'm just wondering if you thought those were sufficient to drive investment beyond 2027 and '28 and more on the oil side than the gas side?
第一個問題是關於委內瑞拉,你在開場談話中提到過;最近有一些報導指出政府向產業提出了新的條款。我想請問你是否認為這些條款足以推動2027、2028年以後的投資,並且更多是在石油端而非天然氣端?
And then the second question is just on refining. The strength in the downstream has been the big theme this quarter. I know you don't have a huge amount of exposure to this, but I just noticed your indicator was down quarter-on-quarter. I guess we're looking at the cracks on the screen, which are very strong. So could you just help me understand why you're not able to take advantage of that and how we should think about that kind of going to the second half. Thank you.
第二個問題是關於煉油。本季下游的強勁表現是最大的主題。我知道你們在這方面曝險不算大,但我注意到你們的指標較上季下滑。我想我們看到螢幕上的裂解價差(cracks)非常強。所以能否協助我理解,為什麼你們無法從中受益,以及我們應如何看待下半年走勢。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
So Venezuela, now maybe whether can complement what I'm going to say. Venezuela, we are in negotiation. Very, very open, clear and transparent is very good negotiation. We are discussing very well with the ministry with [Pete] Clearly, we also with our American partners, and we have a big potential, as we said, we are one of the best block in 5.
關於委內瑞拉,等一下也許——可以補充我接下來要說的。委內瑞拉方面,我們正在談判中。談判非常、非常開放、清楚且透明,是非常好的談判。我們與部會以及[Pete]的討論進展良好;當然我們也與美國合作夥伴一起推進。我們有很大的潛力,正如我們所說,我們擁有第5區塊中最好的區塊之一。
We have we have Corocoro. We have parallel for which we already signed a contract that has been very, very quick in a couple of months ago. We signed a contract for export. That is very good because it's going to complement our domestic production, and that gives even more great and more space for future investment.
我們有 Corocoro。我們有 Parallel,我們在幾個月前已經非常、非常快速地簽署了一份合約。我們簽署了一份出口合約。這非常好,因為它將補充我們的國內產量,並為未來投資提供更大的彈性與更多空間。
As you know, we already developed all the -- most of the infrastructure for the second phase, so we can really go fast for the second phase and then put in place a floating LNG for export. So up to now, Venezuela is responding very well. Clearly, we are going to negotiate a contract that allows us to make investment. We have to remember the history of this country, it's not that we forgot what we had been in the past. So we are prudent.
如你所知,我們已經完成了第二階段的大部分基礎設施建置,因此我們確實可以在第二階段快速推進,並進一步部署用於出口的浮式 LNG。截至目前,委內瑞拉的回應非常好。很明顯,我們將協商一份允許我們進行投資的合約。我們必須記住這個國家的歷史,我們並沒有忘記過去曾經發生的事。因此我們會保持審慎。
But I think that what happened until now is incenting us to go ahead with our Venezuelan partner with Pete and the minister. Just to talk about SEM, I like that maybe Francesco say something about SEM. And then if there is anything to us for Venezuela or in general for downstream. (inaudible) can add something and Stefano Ballista if there is something for the biofuel refineries.
但我認為截至目前發生的事情正在鼓勵我們與委內瑞拉的合作夥伴、與 Pete 以及部長一起繼續推進。談到 SEM,我希望也許 Francesco 可以談談 SEM。然後如果還有任何關於委內瑞拉或一般下游業務的補充,(聽不清)可以再補充,Stefano Ballista 若對生質燃料煉廠有任何內容也可以補充。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes. About our benchmark refining margin. Clearly, this benchmark is say, a nominal value that is presenting a status that is normalized status of the market. So it takes account of the crudes that are generally imported in our refineries take into account of the freight costs that are normally assumed for this transportation and for these logistic events. The situation that we faced since March are completely, let's say, out of normal. So the term that you can read on just a generic way is not the actual margin that we are able to capture because there are some factors of discount, mainly higher freight cost, higher register cost, differential of crudes that are not matching the original crudes that were included in formula, different hills.
是的。關於我們的基準煉油利差。很明顯,這個基準可以說是一個名目值,用來呈現市場的常態化狀態。因此它會考量一般進口到我們煉廠的原油,並納入通常假設的運費成本以及這些運輸與物流事件的成本。我們自三月以來面對的情況完全可以說是非正常狀態。因此,你以一般方式讀到的名目數字,並不是我們實際能夠取得的利差,因為存在一些折價因素,主要是更高的運費、更高的登記成本、與公式中原先納入的原油不匹配的原油價差、不同的(聽不清)。
And also, there is some hedging, let's say, factors that weighted because we covered a small portion of the throughput during the quarter because we take advantage of the scenario. Clearly, the spike that occurred in the last month is so, let's say, material that has limited this opportunity. In general, you have to consider that what you read as an average on a nominal term to be converted in our actual figure will be with a discount of $2, $3 per barrel.
此外,還有一些避險因素的影響,因為我們在本季只對一小部分加工量做了避險,因為我們利用了當時的情境。很明顯,最後一個月出現的飆升幅度非常、可以說相當重大,限制了這個機會。整體而言,你必須考慮你所讀到的名目平均值,換算成我們的實際數字時,會有每桶 2 到 3 美元的折價。
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Okay. It's very clear. The fundamental is in any case that we have completed all the turnaround in the first and the sum in the second -- in second quarter. And so we are very able to maintain the maximum capacity in the third call, and that it means with this current margin a lot of rise.
好的。非常清楚。無論如何,關鍵在於我們已在第一季完成所有大修,並在第二——第二季也完成。因此我們在第三季能夠維持最大產能運轉,這意味著在目前的利差水準下,將帶來很大的提升。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
If I may, I'd like to complement with some operational information. On the gas business, Venezuela, of course. On the gas business, as you know, in March, we have signed a sustainability agreement on Cardón IV and the -- and PDVSA is honoring this agreement, so it's providing cargo to pay the current gas invoices. On the other hand, we are preparing a plan of development for Perla to export gas and the filing of this POD is imminent. On the oil business, as Claudio said, we are at the very final stage of the negotiation.
如果可以的話,我想補充一些營運資訊。關於天然氣業務,當然是在委內瑞拉。在天然氣業務方面,如你所知,我們在三月就 Cardón IV 簽署了一份永續性協議,而——PDVSA 正在履行這份協議,因此它提供貨物以支付目前的天然氣帳單。另一方面,我們正在為 Perla 準備一份用於出口天然氣的開發計畫,而這份 POD 的提交已迫在眉睫。在石油業務方面,如 Claudio 所說,我們已處於談判的最後階段。
And we have also prepared ourselves, and we are ready to mobilize as soon as we sign this contract rigs to exploit the resources there and make use of the spare capacity that the facilities in Venezuela have to increase production, of course.
我們也已做好準備,一旦簽署這份合約,我們就準備立即調動鑽機來開發那裡的資源,並利用委內瑞拉現有設施的閒置產能來提高產量,當然。
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
We're now going to move to Josh Stone at UBS, Josh.
我們現在轉到 UBS 的 Josh Stone,Josh。
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Yeah, thanks, Jon. Good afternoon. Two questions, please. Firstly, on thanks for the project list on Slide 6. It's useful. If I understand correctly, you want to develop these new projects without increasing spending. So it sort of brings up the question of what -- which bridge projects are falling off the list?
好的,謝謝你,Jon。下午好。我有兩個問題。第一,謝謝你們在第 6 頁投影片提供的專案清單。很有幫助。如果我理解正確,你們希望在不增加支出的情況下開發這些新專案。因此這就引出一個問題:哪些——哪些過渡性(bridge)專案會從清單中被移除?
And I noticed in your release, there was some impairment related to a slowdown in more marginal fields. So maybe anything around the sort of which fields are more marginal, which geographies are more marginal to make room for these new projects would be useful.
而且我注意到你們的公告中,有一些減損與較邊際油田放緩有關。所以也許能否談談哪些油田較為邊際、哪些地理區域較為邊際,以便為這些新專案騰出空間,這會很有幫助。
And then second question on chemicals. The losses clearly narrowed this quarter, but still losing money. Maybe just talk about the trend of earnings is what you're seeing for margins in chemicals and how much of the improvement could be attributed to the self-help versus the wider macro. Thank you.
第二個問題是關於化學品。本季虧損顯然收斂,但仍在虧損。能否談談你們看到的化學品利差下,獲利趨勢如何;以及改善中有多少可歸因於自助措施(self-help),相較於更廣泛的總體環境。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
So for CapEx, so it's true, we are growing and also, we demonstrate in the last couple of years that we are going without increasing CapEx. That means that it comes from at least two factors. One, that our -- we are very effective and efficient in developing field. So in the last project, I think in the last time projects that we developed -- I talked about a large project we expect not just the timing but also the budget. So we never exceed our budget. That is a very critical point in the upstream, especially when you develop deep offshore or floating LNG or other stuff that you're able to respect time and budget.
關於資本支出(CapEx),確實,我們在成長,而且我們也在過去幾年證明了我們可以在不增加 CapEx 的情況下成長。這至少來自兩個因素。第一,我們——我們在油田開發上非常有效率且高效能。因此在最近的專案中,我想在我們開發的近期專案裡——我談到的大型專案,我們不僅符合時程,也符合預算。所以我們從未超出預算。這在上游是非常關鍵的一點,特別是當你開發深水離岸或浮式 LNG 或其他項目時,能夠遵守時程與預算。
Secondly, are we -- as you know, we create a different kind of economic model, so state model through which we consolidate and through the growth component and the value component, they have production, they can justify their investments without really creating additional burden on our balance sheet. And that allows us to go faster and keep a very clean or live balance sheet that allow us to be to expand or increase our remuneration for, for example, that is, as you know, is our priority, and that's what we demonstrated in the last couple of years.
第二,如你所知,我們建立了一種不同的經濟模型,也就是國家(state)模型;透過這個模型,我們在成長面與價值面進行整合,它們有產量,能夠在不真正對我們資產負債表造成額外負擔的情況下,合理化其投資。這讓我們能更快推進,並維持非常乾淨或靈活的資產負債表,使我們能夠擴大或提高我們的股東報酬,例如——如你所知,這是我們的優先事項,而這也是我們在過去幾年所展現的。
So it's not a question to delete or write-off as you sell margin on file. We never write off margin feel we farm out through an M&A process that was very successful through which we got some good income. But I think that's the reason -- the two principal reason is what I tell you. I told you.
所以這不是刪除或沖銷邊際油田的問題。我們從不沖銷邊際油田;我們會透過一個非常成功的併購(M&A)流程進行 farm-out,並因此取得一些不錯的收入。但我認為原因——兩個主要原因就是我剛才告訴你的。我已經告訴你了。
So I don't know if you want to -- Guido to add something, otherwise, I give the ball, I pass the ball to Adriano talk about chemicals and chemicals trend and how we're going to do future.
所以我不知道你是否想——Guido 補充一些,否則我把球——我把球交給 Adriano,談談化學品以及化學品趨勢,以及我們未來要怎麼做。
Adriano Alfani - Chief Executive Officer - Versalis
Adriano Alfani - Chief Executive Officer - Versalis
Josh, thanks for the question. As you were described in the question, the result in thermochemical is improving quarter-over-quarter. In the second quarter compared to the same quarter of last year, we have seen a major improvement in the range of three digit above three digit. We need to make a distinction between what is transformation and what is the scenario that also as you asked. In terms of transformation, we are performing in line with the what we said to the market that we expect that on a yearly basis, we have in the ballpark of EUR250 million. And if you see right now the trajectory of result of the transformation we are a little above 10% above this target of EUR250 million, right now, we estimate more in the range of EUR280 million, EUR300 million.
Josh,謝謝你的問題。如你在問題中所描述,熱化學(thermochemical)的結果正逐季改善。第二季相較於去年同期,我們看到顯著改善,幅度達三位數以上。我們需要區分哪些是轉型帶來的,哪些是你也提到的情境因素。就轉型而言,我們的表現符合我們對市場所說的預期:以年度計,我們大約在 2.5 億歐元的量級。而如果你看目前轉型成果的軌跡,我們略高於這個 2.5 億歐元目標約 10%;目前我們估計更接近 2.8 億到 3 億歐元的區間。
Part is also a scenario. We've seen an improvement in the scenario in the second half. You need to consider the net impact of the scenario because you know that we are energy-intensive or feedstock intensive. So of course, what we have seen in terms of increase of feedstock energy, we, of course, is higher cost for us but we have seen also a shortage in the market, not an increase of demand. This is something that we should ground as a scenario. There is no increase of demand, but it's a shortage of product because for six, eight weeks due to the Hormaz closure we have not seen imports from Middle East.
部分也屬於一種情境。我們看到下半年情境有所改善。你需要考量該情境的淨影響,因為你知道我們是能源密集或原料密集型。因此,當然,就原料與能源成本上升而言,對我們來說成本確實更高,但我們同時也看到市場出現短缺,而不是需求增加。這是我們應該作為一種情境來落地評估的事情。需求沒有增加,但產品短缺,因為由於霍爾木茲海峽關閉的六到八週期間,我們沒有看到來自中東的進口。
But after 8 weeks, we have seen an increase of import of US. So whatever probably was not coming from Middle East has been replaced. So we are now back to the starting point. But for sure, in the second quarter, we've seen an improvement of the scenario. To the last part of your question, how much is this trajectory going forward is based on what we declared to the market. We expect to continue to improve performance due to transformation of the improvement on a yearly basis for coming years is a 50% transformation and 50% is new platforms, more or less.
但在 8 週之後,我們看到來自美國的進口增加。所以,原本可能沒有從中東進來的量已被替代。因此我們現在回到起點。但可以肯定的是,在第二季,我們看到情境有所改善。至於你問題的最後一部分,未來這條軌跡會走到什麼程度,取決於我們對市場所宣告的內容。我們預期將持續改善表現;未來幾年按年度來看,改善的來源大致是 50% 來自轉型、50% 來自新平台。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Josh. We're now going to move to as Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Alessandro?
謝謝,Josh。我們現在要轉到 Mediobanca 的 Alessandro Pozzi。Alessandro?
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
Yes. Thank you for the questions. The first one, for Claudio. And going back to production. Of course, you have a lot of production coming to 2030. But if you add all the other opportunities that you have in Cyprus, additional upside in Indonesia. Argentina and Venezuela, it looks like the potential for underlying growth is very large even beyond 2030.
是的。謝謝你們的提問。第一個問題給 Claudio。回到產量方面。當然,你們到 2030 年會有很多產量投放。但如果把你們在賽普勒斯的其他機會、印尼額外的上行空間,以及阿根廷和委內瑞拉都加進來,看起來即使在 2030 年之後,潛在的內生成長也非常可觀。
And of course, there's always a need for disposal. But putting disposals aside, what could be the potential underlying growth of the portfolio that you have today looking into, let's say, middle of next decade. And the second one, kind of a follow-on on disposals. So can you give us an update on the disposal that you expect in the upstream, maybe Indonesia as well there is a bit more to be sold there and also on the scope of the agreement with IRS in the upstream.
當然,也總是有資產處置的需求。但先把處置放一邊,你們以今天的投資組合來看,展望例如下個十年的中期,潛在的內生成長可能是多少?第二個問題算是延伸到處置。你們能否更新一下上游預期的處置進度?也許印尼那邊還有一些可以出售;另外也請談談與 IRS 在上游協議的範圍。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Thank you for your question. Clearly, we in next year, we are going to have an update on what we said now and I just said is that the expectation up to 2030 is 4% growth. After 2030, maybe can be better than that. For sure, I don't think that there is another company that has more than 54 projects for startup radiorganic with very low cost. So we're going to see. Clearly, we have to understand what is the situation, it's very difficult to talk about the end of the year with this kind of volatility with our ore is happening.
謝謝你的問題。很明確地,明年我們會更新我們現在所說的內容;而我剛剛說的是,到 2030 年的成長預期為 4%。2030 年之後,也許會比這更好。可以肯定的是,我不認為還有其他公司擁有超過 54 個即將啟動、成本非常低的專案。所以我們拭目以待。很明顯,我們必須了解情勢;在這種波動之下,要談到年底的情況非常困難,因為我們這邊正在發生的事情也是如此。
And it's hard to talk about 2027, all see how we are really solid, and we don't have -- we don't scare anything. But clearly, if you have to talk in five, six, seven years, what are going to happen. I think that we are in a situation, and we're we -- the world needs more energy. That is clear. There is an energy race among the big champions, the big countries for different reasons, demography clear, but also we talk about hyperscale data center, AI and the growth rate as the industry and a lot of countries are demonstrating. So we need energy.
而且要談到 2027 年也很難;我們會看看我們到底有多穩健,我們也不害怕任何事情。但很明顯,如果你要談五、六、七年後會發生什麼,我認為我們正處在一個情勢之中,而世界需要更多能源。這很清楚。大型龍頭、主要國家之間正在進行能源競賽,原因各不相同:人口結構很明顯;此外我們也談到超大規模資料中心、AI,以及產業的成長率,許多國家都在展現這一點。所以我們需要能源。
And now we understood that we need oil and gas that is clear. And we are really well pleased to give an answer to this call, this big call about oil and gas. I don't think that we never been so strong and inside industry in terms of number of projects and geographies because when I talk about 54 new project, we are talking about at least 13 -- or 13 or 14 different countries. So diversification, it's a key word diversification. That means that we don't have all the eggs in the same basket. And each country is very rich in terms of future growth.
而現在我們也明白,我們需要石油與天然氣,這很清楚。我們非常樂意回應這個對石油與天然氣的重大需求。我不認為我們在專案數量與地理分布上曾經如此強大、如此深入產業;因為當我談到 54 個新專案時,我們談的是至少 13——或 13 或 14 個不同國家。所以,多元化是一個關鍵詞:多元化。這代表我們不會把所有雞蛋放在同一個籃子裡。而且每個國家在未來成長方面都非常有潛力。
So I can tell you, we are in a good position. We have in a good position in a world that needs is really -- they need energy. They are hungry for energy, starving for energy and any is really in a very strong position, never been so strong. Disposal, I think that I give the floor to Francesco to talk about the state we sold our disposal.
所以我可以告訴你,我們處於一個良好的位置。在一個真正需要——他們需要能源的世界裡,我們處於良好位置。他們對能源非常渴求、非常飢餓,而 Eni 的位置非常強勢,從未如此強大。至於處置,我想我把時間交給 Francesco,請他談談我們處置出售的進展狀況。
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Clearly, the plan for this year is almost completed. As you mentioned, we are in advanced stage for the last step that is the Indonesia 10% that has already entered the first -- the last stage. We have completed a number of deals and that are pending the closing. We have done the Nigeria onshore disposal. We have done -- we are running the increase our capital plan to with the consequence in term of balance sheet. We announced that this deal related to infrastructure -- so there are various activities for the coming years, we will continue to maximize the valorization of our portfolio.
很明確地,今年的計畫幾乎已完成。如你所提到,我們在最後一步——印尼 10%——方面已進入後期階段,且已經進入第一——最後階段。我們已完成多筆交易,目前正等待交割完成。我們已完成奈及利亞陸上資產的處置。我們也已經——我們正在推進資本計畫的提升,並對資產負債表帶來相應影響。我們宣布了這筆與基礎設施相關的交易——因此未來幾年會有各項活動,我們將持續最大化我們投資組合的價值實現。
Our portfolio is continuing -- is a live animal, it's a living animal. It's added opportunity through exploration, through business through business development, business combination. And this means that there's opportunity to valorize part of that to reduce exposure to areas or regions that are no more core or eventually also to improve the validation of our transformation business. So I think that we proved that I remember the analysts were considering last year as the top of our disposal trial.
我們的投資組合持續——它是一個活的動物,是一個有生命的動物。它會透過勘探、透過業務、透過業務發展、業務合併而增加機會。這也意味著有機會將其中一部分價值實現,以降低對某些不再屬於核心的區域或地區的曝險,或最終也能提升我們轉型業務的估值。所以我認為我們已經證明了——我記得分析師去年把它視為我們處置軌跡的高峰。
I think that also we proved that this year, we have new ideas to put on the table. I think this will continue in the coming years, but will be part of the next four-year plan.
我認為我們也證明了今年我們有新的想法可以端上檯面。我認為這在未來幾年會持續,但會成為下一個四年計畫的一部分。
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
And what is the perimeter of the infrastructure deal?
那麼,這筆基礎設施交易的範圍是什麼?
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
The infrastructure deal is a partnership that is working on a generic. It's not a specific set of assets. Infrastructure, you know that the upstream business has many kind of infrastructures. So the idea is not to build or identify a geography, a field or something that is well defined. Maisageneric description of a broader portfolio and creating a financial synthetic element that simulate the cash flow related to that infrastructure.
這筆基礎設施交易是一種合作夥伴關係,運作在一個通用的基礎上。它不是針對一組特定資產。基礎設施方面,你知道上游業務有很多類型的基礎設施。所以這個想法不是去建立或鎖定某個地理區域、某個油田或某個明確界定的標的。而是以更廣泛投資組合的通用描述為基礎,並創造一個金融合成要素,用以模擬與該等基礎設施相關的現金流。
And this is the way that we, let's say, created that has a potential to start more value from infrastructure that has a fixed return, why we would like to invest in double digit, high double-digit return on our upstream assets.
而這就是我們所創造的方式;它有潛力從具有固定回報的基礎設施中釋放更多價值,同時我們希望在上游資產上投資於雙位數、較高雙位數的回報。
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
Alessandro Pozzi - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Alessandro. We're going to move to Ahmed Ben Salem. Are you there?
謝謝,Alessandro。我們將轉到 Ahmed Ben Salem。你在線上嗎?
Ahmed Ben Salem - Analyst
Ahmed Ben Salem - Analyst
Yeah. Hi, thanks for taking my question. You mentioned the possible extraordinary dividend review what would trigger that decision? And if cash flow remains strong, would buyback still be your preferred way of returning excess cash to shareholders. Thank you.
是的。嗨,謝謝讓我提問。您提到可能會檢討是否發放特別股利,什麼情況會觸發這個決定?另外,如果現金流仍然強勁,回購是否仍會是您將多餘現金回饋股東的首選方式?謝謝。
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
We have set the rules for the excess dividend. So the rules are, if we are assuming in a full year, $90 brand scenario. Currently, we are at $91. So we are in the money for the dividend, excess dividend distribution. If we assume the 50% increase of refining margin and $9 is a trigger, and we are well above that number.
我們已經訂定了超額股利的規則。規則是:假設以全年來看,布蘭特油價情境為90美元。目前我們在91美元。因此就超額股利分配而言,我們已經達到條件(in the money)。若假設煉油利差提高50%,且以9美元作為觸發點,我們遠高於該水準。
And we assume it is a 50% on the EUR36-megawatt hour that is -- that was the budget for TTS and it's 54% means that the 50% increase. So we will be above the 54% on average. And currently, we are probably in the range of 47%, 48%. So there will be a net dividends. So if we want to say, simulate with the current level of year-to-date price, there is an extra dividend.
另外,我們假設以每兆瓦時36歐元為基準的50%增幅——那是TTS的預算基準——而54%就代表50%的增幅。因此我們的平均值將高於54%。而目前我們大概在47%、48%的區間。所以會有淨股利。因此如果用目前年初至今的價格水準來模擬,會有額外股利。
We will see in September how the market will evolve, which our expectation for the end of the year and clearly, how the company has performed in --
我們會在9月觀察市場如何演變、我們對年底的預期,以及當然公司在--
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Yes, but what we said, just to specify that in October, we had to take the decision, we're going to pay the extra dividend in the fourth quarter. So by December. So just to remember what is going to happen. It's not --
是的,但我們所說的是——只是要具體說明——在10月我們必須做出決定,我們是否要在第四季支付額外股利。也就是在12月之前。所以只是提醒一下接下來會發生什麼。這不是--
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. And we -- just another element, if we are clearly in that situation where there is an extra dividend, yet to consider there is probably also an extra buyback because if we enter in a higher price, there will be a ceiling up to EUR4 billion, but we are currently at EUR3.4 billion. but we saturate the 60% cash flow from operational distribution up to the limit, yes.
是的。另外還有一點:如果我們明確處於會發放額外股利的情況,還要考量可能也會有額外回購,因為若進入較高價格情境,將有最高至40億歐元的上限,但我們目前是34億歐元。 但我們會把營運現金流分配的60%用到上限為止,是的。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Great. Thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Ahmed. We're going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?
很好。謝謝你,Francesco。謝謝你,Ahmed。我們接著請高盛的Michele Della Vigna。Michele?
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Thank you. And again, congratulations on the strong results. Two questions. First, I wonder if you had any comment on the situation in Kazakhstan around the enforcement of this $5 billion environmental fine on cash again. And secondly, could you shed a bit more light on this Macquarie Eni global trading joint venture? What you expect it could contribute in the coming years and whether effectively GPP becomes part of the joint venture. Thank you.
謝謝。也再次恭喜你們的強勁業績。兩個問題。第一,我想請問你們對哈薩克斯坦的情況是否有任何評論,關於這筆50億美元環境罰款對現金的執行(追繳)問題。第二,能否再多說明一下這個Macquarie與Eni的全球交易合資企業?你們預期它在未來幾年能貢獻什麼,以及GPP是否實際上會成為合資企業的一部分。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Okay. I think for both, Kassandra will go to answer and maybe I can add something, but I'm sure that we discover completely two questions.
好的。我想這兩題都由Kassandra來回答,或許我再補充一些,但我確定我們會把這兩個問題完整說清楚。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay. So let's start on arbitration and this ongoing arbitration, of course, first of all, let me clarify that the operator and all the shareholders in support -- I mean the operations have been conducted in compliance with a low of Kazakhstan. And then you see at all the permits required to do so. That's an important element that we always have to underline. However, the Republic of Kazakhstan through various instrumentalities and agencies that continue to pursue this sulfur fine and has also commenced some enforcement steps.
好的。那先從仲裁以及這項正在進行的仲裁談起。當然,首先讓我澄清,營運方以及所有股東的立場是——我的意思是——相關營運一直是依照哈薩克斯坦法律合規進行。而且你可以看到,我們具備執行所需的所有許可。這是我們必須一再強調的重要要素。然而,哈薩克斯坦共和國透過各種機構與主管機關,仍持續追究這筆硫磺罰款,並且也已啟動一些執行步驟。
Despite we have to say there is under the commercial arbitration under the PSA, which is ongoing. There was a restraining order from an international tribunal prohibiting the Republic to take any measure to enforce the fine and during the arbitration of course. And of course, the operator is continuing to challenge the sulfur fine. So including, of course, an international -- an investment trade arbitration, which is currently ongoing also in -- so the situation is, of course, ongoing. At the moment, they made some steps.
儘管我們必須指出,依據PSA的商業仲裁正在進行中。國際仲裁庭已發布禁止令,禁止哈薩克斯坦共和國在仲裁期間採取任何措施來執行該罰款。當然,營運方也持續對硫磺罰款提出挑戰。其中也包括一項國際——投資貿易仲裁,目前也正在進行中——因此整體情況仍在持續發展。目前他們已採取了一些步驟。
But at the moment, they are on hold on any other kind of enforcement. And this is the current situation on Kazakhstan. As far as the trading, clearly, this is part of our transformation of the trading business. The trading business initially was more a kind of a business service provider in our corporation, then we became more a marketplace player, again, within the company. And then the third and last step was to merge with a pure trader to combine the best of the two worlds, to combine the variety, the diversified set of industrial assets the structural supply portfolio of corporate like Eni, very well diversified as Claudio you said, both in terms of business and geographies with the operational flexibility the systems of a pure player.
但就目前而言,他們已暫停任何其他類型的執行行動。這就是哈薩克斯坦目前的狀況。至於交易業務,顯然這是我們交易業務轉型的一部分。交易業務一開始更像是公司內部的業務服務提供者,之後我們成為更像市場參與者——同樣是在公司內部。第三也是最後一步,就是與一家純交易商合併,以結合兩個世界的優勢:把像Eni這樣企業的多元化工業資產與結構性供應組合(如Claudio所說,在業務與地域上都非常多元),與純玩家的營運彈性與系統結合起來。
Of course, I mean, it is a 50-50 JV and we expect in the long term that this JV and the trading activity will help to raise and lift our as by 1 or 2 percentage points. This is -- yes, of course, the cash flow per barrel and the overall result of the company.
當然,我的意思是,這是一個50/50的合資企業。我們預期長期而言,這個合資企業與交易活動將有助於把我們的回報提高1到2個百分點。這——是的,當然——會反映在每桶現金流以及公司的整體成果上。
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Michele. We're now -- we're going to now move to Fergus Neve Rothschild & Redburn. Fergus?
謝謝你,Michele。我們現在——我們接著請Rothschild & Redburn的Fergus Neve。Fergus?
Fergus Neve - Analyst
Fergus Neve - Analyst
Brilliant. Thank you very much for taking my questions. Two questions, please. Just first on any live where the results were particularly strong this quarter, and it was great to see that feed through to the guidance upgrade. Could you just give us some color on the relative split of the results between the marketing business and the biofuels business this quarter? And perhaps also comment on how your biofuel margins have been looking so far in 3Q.
太好了。非常感謝讓我提問。兩個問題。首先關於Enilive,本季業績特別強勁,很高興看到這也帶動了指引上調。能否請你們提供一些背景,說明本季行銷業務與生質燃料業務在成果上的相對占比?也請評論一下你們在第三季迄今的生質燃料利差表現如何。
And then secondly, just following up from the earlier refining question. So the assumption in the scenario for this has stepped up quite a bit for the second half for the overall number in the full year. I just wondered if you could give us some color on where the new kind of adjusted is SAT or has been tracking so far in July and perhaps some thoughts on how much of an uplift that might give to the business moving forward in the second half. Thanks.
第二個問題是延續先前關於煉油的提問。這個情境假設在下半年相較之前提高了不少,因而拉高了全年總數。我想請你們說明一下,7月迄今新的「調整後SAT」大致走勢如何,以及你們對這可能在下半年為業務帶來多少上行的看法。謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Okay. So the first question for [Stefano] and the second one for Stefano as well.
好的。第一個問題給[Stefano],第二個也給Stefano。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes. No. Thank you for the question. Yes, the quarter has been very strong, and result has been driven by a step-up of the biorefinery performance. In terms of overall result out of the EUR375 million EBITDA adjusted EUR1 million as the rough number is around 35%, 40% contribution from the biorefinery. And this has been driven, yes, by the scenario improvement, significant improvement, but also actually by a very strong performance from the asset.
是的。不。謝謝你的問題。是的,本季非常強勁,業績主要由生質煉製(biorefinery)表現提升所帶動。就整體結果而言,在3.75億歐元的調整後EBITDA中,粗略來看約有35%到40%來自生質煉製。這確實是由情境改善、顯著改善所驅動,但同時也來自資產本身非常強的營運表現。
If you look to the available asset, Chalmette and gain this quarter, overall utilization rate has been above 90%. And then on top, we put in place several optimization levers in order to extract all the value available. Moving forward, situation, it's going to proceed in that direction. Rational is given by the fact that this market scenario is underpinned by an increased demand. Demand for 2026 is foreseen around 20 million tonne versus the EUR60 million of 2025.
如果你看可用資產,Chalmette 以及本季的增量,整體產能利用率一直高於 90%。此外,我們也啟動了數個最佳化槓桿,以便把所有可取得的價值都釋放出來。往後來看,情勢將會朝這個方向推進。其背後的邏輯在於,這個市場情境是由需求增加所支撐。預估 2026 年的需求約為 2,000 萬噸,相較於 2025 年的 6,000 萬噸。
And this is due by the rollout of new regulation in Europe with the renewable energy directive, we got just a few days ago, Spain, again, confirming target moving from energy content to GAG reduction and banning double counting.
這是因為歐洲推出了新的法規,也就是我們幾天前剛看到的《再生能源指令》;西班牙也再次確認目標將從能源含量轉向溫室氣體(GHG)減量,並禁止重複計算。
And then on top in US, where we got in April a confirmation on the new target from the Environmental Protection Agency. And even if we look at the market as a whole, we saw that the flows from U.S. to Europe are pretty much dropping and this is because the value of both market is quite relevant and strong given what I said. So this is another strong signal moving forward.
此外在美國,我們在 4 月也收到環境保護署(EPA)對新目標的確認。即使從整體市場來看,我們也看到從美國流向歐洲的貨物流量幾乎在下降,這是因為如我所說,兩個市場的價值都相當可觀且強勁。因此,這也是往前看的另一個強烈訊號。
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Okay. out the same, what we are seeing now in July is a very, very high level, above $30 per barrel that is -- should remain very bullish in the next months because the combination of many factors, first of all, the storage is very, very low for all the product. There is a low refining capacity in operation. And we are in the driving season. The crack spread that we are seeing in gas oil, but also in the gasoline are very, very high, and there is also some premium to import the product.
好的。同樣地,我們現在在 7 月看到的是非常、非常高的水準,每桶超過 30 美元——在接下來幾個月應該會維持非常偏多的態勢,因為多項因素的組合:首先,所有產品的庫存都非常、非常低。在運作中的煉油產能偏低。而且我們正處於行車旺季。我們看到的柴油裂解價差(crack spread),以及汽油的裂解價差都非常、非常高,同時進口產品也有一定溢價。
So what we expect in the next month is a very, very bullish period, and we are gaining of this because we are anticipating a shutdown of Sannazzaro and (inaudible) There main capacity and conversion refinery that we have. We -- the third refinery, Taranto, as planned, the shutdown for maintenance in September, but we are moving this shutdown for a couple of months in order to gain all the period.
因此,我們預期接下來幾個月會是一段非常、非常偏多的期間,而我們也正從中受益,因為我們預先安排了 Sannazzaro 與(聽不清)——也就是我們主要的產能與轉換型煉廠——的停工。至於第三座煉廠 Taranto,原本計畫在 9 月停工維修,但我們將這次停工往後延了幾個月,以便把這段期間的效益全部掌握。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Very good. Thanks, Gino. We're now going to move to Paul Redman BNP Paribas. Paul.
非常好。謝謝你,Gino。我們現在轉到法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的 Paul Redman。Paul。
Paul Redman - Analyst
Paul Redman - Analyst
Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for your time. I had one question on strategy, and that was just around the 320 service stations you recently acquired in Europe. I just want to understand the strategic rationale for buying fuel stations today, but also what the impact could be on earnings from the deal? And then secondly, you guide to underlying improvement in your cash flow from operations of EUR700 million this year. I wanted to ask what are the key drivers of that underlying improvement. Thank you.
各位好。非常感謝你們撥冗。我有一個關於策略的問題,主要是關於你們最近在歐洲收購的 320 座加油站。我想了解在今天收購燃料加油站的策略性理由,以及這筆交易對獲利可能帶來的影響。第二點,你們指引今年營運現金流(CFO)有 7 億歐元的基礎性改善。我想請問推動這項基礎性改善的關鍵驅動因素是什麼。謝謝。
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
About the acquisition in Central Europe, mainly Germany and Denmark. This is part of the strategy of expanding our Enilive marketing activity. Enilive has already exposure to marketing in the country in Germany. That is the second country as a number of stations. So this is a good opportunity to buy a second tire brand that could be improved in us in terms of valorization thanks to our clearly branding possibility to add shopping and convenience stores and benefiting also of local logistics support from our Germany refinery participation. We have two participation in two plants in Germany.
關於中歐的收購,主要在德國與丹麥。這是擴大我們 Enilive 行銷業務策略的一部分。Enilive 在德國已經有行銷業務的曝險。以站點數量來看,德國是第二大的國家。因此,這是個很好的機會去收購第二個品牌;透過我們清晰的品牌化能力,加入購物與便利商店並提升價值(valorization),同時也能受益於我們在德國煉廠參股所帶來的在地物流支援。我們在德國有兩座工廠的參股。
The contribution. This is an asset that is generating in the range of EUR40 million, EUR50 million for EBITDA. In terms of cash flow from operation improvement, cash flow from ratio improvement is related to all the improvement that we mentioned during this conference. Production growth, upstream production growth, cash flow per barrel related to that growth. Opportunity and growth generated by GGP and Eni Live benefit improvement that we mentioned to scenario and plant availability. All these elements are contributor major contributor of the cash flow revised guidance.
至於貢獻。這項資產所產生的 EBITDA 約在 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬歐元的區間。就營運現金流改善而言,營運現金流的改善與我們在本次會議中提到的各項改善有關。產量成長、上游產量成長,以及與該成長相關的每桶現金流。以及我們提到的、由 GGP 與 Enilive 所帶來的機會與成長,受益於情境與裝置可用率的改善。所有這些要素都是我們上修現金流指引的主要貢獻來源。
Paul Redman - Analyst
Paul Redman - Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Paul. We're going to now move to Nash at Barclays, Nash.
謝謝你,Paul。我們現在轉到 Barclays 的 Nash,Nash。
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
Good afternoon, all. Two questions, please. The first one is on downstream. Both Enilive and Plenitude continue to improve profitability and outlook has improved, too, especially on Enilive. I wonder, does this change your view or your partners strategic over those business? And my second question is on upstream.
各位下午好。兩個問題,謝謝。第一個是關於下游。Enilive 與 Plenitude 持續改善獲利能力,展望也有所提升,尤其是 Enilive。我想請問,這是否改變你們對這些業務的看法,或你們與合作夥伴對這些業務的策略?第二個問題是關於上游。
You have a very busy upstream growth pipeline, 54 organic group projects, as you mentioned. Could you talk about what has done right to progress in time and under budget. Are you worried about future CapEx cost inflation, please? Thank you.
你們的上游成長專案管線非常繁忙,如你們所提到的,有 54 個有機成長的集團專案。能否談談你們做對了哪些事情,讓專案能按時並在預算內推進?你們是否擔心未來資本支出(CapEx)成本通膨?謝謝。
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
On the view about the Enilive and Plenitude, I think that this business confirm the model, the way we generate, we created this business that are putting together renewable content and transition content plus retailer and therefore, marketing outcome. This reinforced the possibility to navigate through the cycles. You saw in this business, different cycle happen now because sometimes there are improvements, then there is a slowdown, et cetera, but through -- the combination of these two elements, we are able to manage in any case, this kind of trend.
關於對 Enilive 與 Plenitude 的看法,我認為這些業務驗證了我們的模式,也就是我們建立這些業務的方式:把再生能源內容與轉型內容,加上零售端,進而帶來行銷成果。這強化了我們穿越景氣循環的能力。你在這些業務中看到不同的循環正在發生,因為有時會改善、有時會放緩等等;但透過這兩個要素的組合,我們無論如何都能管理這類趨勢。
We have a stronger balance sheet in each of them. So we have the possibility to use the generational cash on one side of the retailer in order to supply the growth of the renewable side. And therefore, I think this is a confirmation that what we set up in the last four or five years related to these two businesses and the partnership that recognize the value of that is effective and working. This also helped us to have a faster view towards a potential IPO that is the final goal for each of them.
我們在這兩個業務各自都有更強健的資產負債表。因此,我們可以運用零售端所產生的現金,一方面支應再生能源端的成長。所以我認為,這證明了過去四、五年我們針對這兩項業務所做的布局,以及合作夥伴對其價值的認可,是有效且運作良好的。這也幫助我們更快地朝向潛在 IPO 的方向前進,而 IPO 是它們各自的最終目標。
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
On our pipeline of projects, a couple of things. First of all, we proved in the past, as Claudio said, that we've been able to manage a project within cost and within budget. And we've been able also to run multiple projects. Just to remind, last year, we've started up 5 major projects. So we demonstrated that we are able to handle quite a large number of projects.
關於我們的專案管線,有幾點。首先,正如 Claudio 所說,我們過去已證明能在成本與預算範圍內管理專案。我們也能同時推進多個專案。提醒一下,去年我們啟動了 5 個重大專案。因此我們證明了自己有能力處理相當大量的專案。
Because of our fast-track model, which is designed for that. It's designed to run parallel activity is designed also to have quite a high degree of on-hand features. We have an engineering company into the corporation, which is helpful in this kind of projects. As far as concerned the inflation, you are right.
這得益於我們的快速推進(fast-track)模式,其設計目的就是如此。它被設計用來並行推動各項工作,也被設計成具備相當高程度的現成(on-hand)特性。我們集團內部有一家工程公司,對這類專案很有幫助。至於通膨方面,你說得對。
I mean, the inflation, especially after -- the inflation was already in the region of 3% to 4%, 2026 to 2025. And after the Middle East conflicts, the range is becoming more 4% to 6% because of the, of course, cost of the fuel and the dislocation of the market.
我的意思是,通膨,尤其是在——通膨原本在 2026 相對 2025 的區間大約是 3% 到 4%。而在中東衝突之後,這個區間變得更接近 4% 到 6%,因為當然,燃料成本以及市場的錯位所致。
But to ensure cost discipline and schedule reliability across the project on top of this designed fast-track model, we are also an integrated procurement strategy, which allowed us to expand the supply chain into new frontier markets, strengthened strategic partnership through master framework agreement and also applying some refined tendering approach. -- consider that most of the contract for the project, we are talking about are already locked in before the crisis of the Middle East.
但為了在這個既定的快速推進(fast-track)模式之上,確保整個專案的成本紀律與進度可靠性,我們也採用了整合式採購策略,使我們得以將供應鏈擴展至新的前沿市場,透過主框架協議強化策略夥伴關係,並同時採用一些更精細的招標方法。——請注意,專案的大多數合約在中東危機發生之前就已經鎖定。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
I want to add something about what Guido said because we are in this situation today because strategically, we built the company in that way. When 15 years ago, everybody were outsourcing, we in-sourced. It was against the mainstream against the trendy situation of 20, 15 years ago, people prefer to reduce risk going through M&A, but we decided to in-source. We decide with it to create an engineering company. We decided to be specialized in the expiration. And then we decided to be specialized in the development becoming the main contractors and moving the different package.
我想補充一下 Guido 所說的,因為我們今天之所以處於這個狀態,是因為在策略上,我們就是以這種方式打造公司。15 年前,當大家都在外包時,我們選擇內製(in-source)。這與 20 年、15 年前的主流與潮流背道而馳;當時人們偏好透過併購(M&A)來降低風險,但我們決定內製。我們也因此決定打造一家工程公司。我們決定專注於勘探。接著我們決定專注於開發,成為主要承包商,並推動不同的工作包(package)。
So when you talk about cost, to be able to contain cost, you must have the skills to control your activities. In each single step, if we are not able to control your activity, you can use the best model you want, you are not able to control your cost. If you beat your project, you are able, if you build your company with this purpose, you are able to do that. And not only we demonstrated, but was our strategy. And when we present this kind of strategy more than 15, 16 years ago, people was surprised because we were not following the trend in exploration and everything. But that now, I think that we are in the best position to not just find new exploration resources but be able to develop, be able to control our costs, be able to give the right guidance to our contractors.
所以當你談到成本,要能夠控制成本,你必須具備掌控自身活動的能力。在每一個步驟,如果我們無法控制自己的作業,你用再好的模式,也無法控制成本。如果你把專案做好——如果你以這個目的來打造公司——你就能做到。而且這不只是我們證明過的,也是我們的策略。當我們在 15、16 年前提出這種策略時,人們很驚訝,因為我們沒有跟隨勘探等各方面的趨勢。但現在,我認為我們處於最佳位置,不僅能找到新的勘探資源,也能夠開發、能夠控制成本,並能對承包商提供正確的指引。
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
Naisheng Cui - Equity Analyst
That's very helpful. Thank you, Claudio.
這非常有幫助。謝謝你,Claudio。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Nash. I'm conscious I said we've closed at the top of the hour, but I'm going to take my contingency and go to 310. We may not get around to everybody's asking questions. So I apologize for that, and you can follow up later. We're now going to move to Henry Tarr at Berenberg.
謝謝,Nash。我知道我說過我們會在整點結束,但我會動用我的緩衝時間,延到 3:10。我們可能無法回答所有人的提問。因此我先致歉,你們可以之後再跟進。我們現在轉到 Berenberg 的 Henry Tarr。
Henry?
Henry?
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Hi, there and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. One is you have several projects obviously underway currently in the UAE and in Qatar. Is there any indication of the impact so far of the Hormoz disruption on these projects? I guess sort of following on from the cost question. And then secondly, the sites in transformation, I guess, costs have been running at sort of EUR50 million a quarter through the first half. Is that a sensible indication for the second half? Thank you.
嗨,謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一個是,你們目前顯然在阿聯與卡達都有多個專案在進行中。到目前為止,荷姆茲(Hormoz)中斷對這些專案是否有任何影響跡象?我想這也算是延伸前面關於成本的問題。第二個,關於轉型中的據點(sites in transformation),我想成本在上半年大約是每季 5,000 萬歐元左右。這是否可作為下半年的合理指標?謝謝。
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
On the first one, the answer is very short. There's no impact on the project, most of the activity, the manpower and material were already in country, and so it's progressing and this is both in Qatar and of course, in UAE.
第一個問題,答案很簡短。專案沒有受到影響,大部分作業、人力與物料都已經在當地,因此進度持續推進;這在卡達以及當然在阿聯都是如此。
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Francesco Gattei - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. About the sites in transformation, this is already a flat trend, a steady quarterly trend that we -- instead, we expect them to decline in the next years because clearly, you reduce the amount of activity that had to be transformed.
是的。關於轉型中的據點,這已經呈現持平的趨勢、穩定的季度趨勢;相反地,我們預期未來幾年會下降,因為很明顯需要被轉型的活動量會減少。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Henry. I'm going to move now to Alastair Syme, Citigroup. Al?
謝謝,Henry。我現在轉到 Citigroup 的 Alastair Syme。Al?
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Thanks, Jon. Can I just return to the question on Venezuela. I mean -- can you give us some color about what you're looking in terms of the ways of protecting your investment? I mean clearly, there's a big potential, but there's also quite a big investment. So is it a service agreement or PSC? What's sort of fiscal structure is it and then I had a second question because actually Basal on Fusion.
謝謝,Jon。我想回到委內瑞拉的問題。你能否多提供一些你們在保護投資方面所考量的方式?顯然潛力很大,但投資規模也相當大。所以這會是服務協議還是 PSC(產量分成合約)?大致的財政/稅制結構是什麼?另外我還有第二個問題,因為其實是關於 Basal 的 Fusion。
I saw this quarter, you signed this fusion fuels agreement in the UK. Obviously, you've got CFS starting up in Boston next year. Can you talk about what you said in the next couple of years infusion looks like? Should we get getting very excited about it? Thank you.
我看到這一季你們在英國簽署了這份 fusion fuels 協議。很明顯,你們的 CFS 明年會在波士頓啟動。你能談談你所說的未來幾年核融合(fusion)會是什麼樣子嗎?我們是否應該對此非常興奮?謝謝。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
I think that we already said before that, that is a different kind of contract. So it's more likely a more likely PSC or something like that. But this kind of -- I talk about Junin 5 because Junin 5 is the main topic. So Perla, no problem, we can export. CoroCoro is good. But it's good, can give a contribution by the small. But the big contributor, we talked about really a big contribution because it's almost EUR5 billion or EUR6 billion gross recoverable resources is coming from this field.
我想我們之前已經說過,那是一種不同類型的合約。所以更可能是 PSC 或類似的形式。不過這類——我之所以談 Junin 5,是因為 Junin 5 是主要議題。所以 Perla 沒問題,我們可以出口。CoroCoro 也不錯。但它的貢獻相對較小。但真正的大貢獻——我們談的是非常大的貢獻,因為大約有 50 億或 60 億歐元的總可回收資源——來自這個油田。
This field is mainly a drilling because it's a shallow reservoir, 1,000 feet. So you can imagine what we do or what people do in the lower 48 impairment, so very fast really and then you recover. So you invest your core, you invest your core is not really. It's standard upstream project where you have to invest for four or five years or three years, what you want. And then you start recovering.
這個油田主要是鑽井作業,因為它是淺層儲層,約 1,000 英尺。所以你可以想像我們做的、或人們在美國本土 48 州(lower 48)所做的那種作業,真的非常快,然後就開始回收。所以你投入你的核心——你投入你的核心其實並不是——它不是那種標準的上游專案,需要投資四、五年或三年,隨你怎麼規劃。然後才開始回收。
So you have a lot of inactive capital and big exposure. In this case, it's more new operational operating, sorry, operating spending. So that is already. So the structure of the business is really give you a protection because it's a very fast recovery. Clearly, you have to invest, yes, you have to continue investing. The depletion rate is not the same or the permit is much better. I mean drainage area is quite good. So that also is very heavy, that continue to produce also for some time without big depletion.
那樣你會有大量閒置資本與很大的曝險。但在這個案例中,更偏向新的營運——抱歉,是營運支出(operating spending)。所以這已經——因此,這種商業結構確實能提供保護,因為回收非常快。當然,你必須投資,是的,你必須持續投資。枯竭率不一樣,或是許可條件好得多。我的意思是,排水面積(drainage area)相當不錯。所以這也很重要,能在沒有大幅枯竭的情況下持續生產一段時間。
But we have so the contract from one side is not in (inaudible) Clearly, we are not going to -- we are not going to invest with the old contract. And from the other side, the kind of E&P project that protect you from exposure in our CapEx. (inaudible) you want to say something, no. Okay. So talking about Fusion, Lorenzo that is our Director -- Head of our -- all the technological service R&D and is in charge of Fusion, maybe he can spend some work.
但我們——所以合約一方面並不是(聽不清)。很明確地說,我們不會——我們不會用舊合約去投資。另一方面,這類 E&P(勘探與生產)專案能在我們的資本支出(CapEx)上保護你、降低曝險。(聽不清)你想補充什麼嗎?不。好。那談到 Fusion,Lorenzo 是我們的主管——負責我們——所有技術服務研發(R&D)的主管,也負責 Fusion,也許他可以說幾句。
Lorenzo Fiorillo - Director of Technology, R&D & Digital
Lorenzo Fiorillo - Director of Technology, R&D & Digital
Thank you, Claudio. Just to give you -- provide you an update for CFS. The activity is going very well. We are at the final stage of construction. We are physically assembling the machine. We are more than 75% of advancements. So we are very confident by next year, beginning of 2028, machine will be ready, and then we will start up decommissioning to reach the positive Q greater than 1. Considering the activity in UK, we have signed an agreement with the UK. EA, which is the nuclear agency. We are building a machine plant to treat treating. We are in the range of the 30% advancement.
謝謝你,Claudio。簡單向各位——提供 CFS 的最新進展。目前進度非常順利。我們已進入建造的最後階段。我們正在進行設備的實體組裝。目前進度已超過 75%。因此我們非常有信心在明年、也就是 2028 年初,機器將準備就緒,接著我們將開始啟動與調試(commissioning)以達到正 Q 大於 1。至於英國的活動,我們已與英國簽署協議。EA,也就是核能機構。我們正在建造一座機器工廠,用於處理、處理。目前進度約在 30% 左右。
And recently, like you currently said, we create a private company called we aim to commercialize these technologies and so to become also an opportunity for industrial purposes. So activities are going very well in this direction.
而且最近,正如你剛才所說,我們成立了一家私人公司,目標是將這些技術商業化,從而也成為工業用途方面的一個機會。因此,相關活動正朝著這個方向進展得非常順利。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thanks, Lorenzo. Thanks, Al. We're going to now move, and I think this will have to be the last question too, and I apologize to those still waiting. Maybe we can talk to you later. So this will be to Matt Lofting at JPMorgan, Matt.
謝謝你,Lorenzo。謝謝你,Al。我們現在要往下進行,而且我想這也必須是最後一個問題了,對於仍在等候的各位我深感抱歉。也許我們之後可以再和你們交流。那麼接下來請 JPMorgan 的 Matt Lofting,Matt。
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Thanks, Jon. Congratulations to you all on a very strong update this morning. I wanted to just ask you about Latin America as a portfolio hub. You talked about Venezuela earlier, but when you look at the content as a whole, it looks like it's becoming increasingly important to the diversification strategy and growth profile that you've talked about over the last or so. So can you just expand there in terms of the extent to which that's becoming more significant to Eni as you look forward to 2030 plus and how you think about best structuring investments in that part of the world in order to optimize investment paybacks. Thank you.
謝謝你,Jon。恭喜各位今天早上帶來非常強勁的最新進展。我想請教一下拉丁美洲作為投資組合樞紐的議題。你們先前談到委內瑞拉,但從整體內容來看,拉丁美洲似乎正變得愈來愈重要,對於你們在過去一段時間所談到的多元化策略與成長輪廓而言尤其如此。因此,能否請你們進一步說明:展望 2030 年及之後,這一地區對 Eni 的重要性提升到什麼程度?以及你們如何思考在該區域最佳化投資架構,以優化投資回收報酬。謝謝。
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Guido Brusco - General Manager, Chief Operating Officer - Global Natural Resources
Yes. As we already said also in the capital market update back in March, if you look at the production distribution at 2030, South America will play a significant role in our share of production mainly from, of course, Argentina, Venezuela, but also Mexico. In Mexico, we are running at 95,000 barrel of oil equivalent per day, and we are the largest international producer. The two assets -- I mean, the asset in Venezuela, we have described already, Claudio gave some interesting features on Argentina. We are talking of a world-class basin 25 Tcf, EUR500 million of condensate, which makes 4.8 billion barrel of oil to be recovered.
是的。正如我們在 3 月的資本市場更新中已經提到的,如果你看 2030 年的產量分布,南美洲將在我們的產量占比中扮演重要角色,主要當然來自阿根廷、委內瑞拉,也包括墨西哥。在墨西哥,我們目前日產約 95,000 桶油當量,且我們是最大的國際生產商。兩項資產——我是說,委內瑞拉的資產我們已經說明過;Claudio 也就阿根廷提供了一些有意思的特點。我們談的是一個世界級盆地:25 兆立方英尺(Tcf),5 億歐元的凝析油(condensate),相當於可回收 48 億桶油。
We have an estimated production at peak at around 550,000 barrels of oil equivalent, of which 200 liquids and the remaining is LNG for export. And this is the, I would say, the inventory of the reserves already discovered then to be developed. We are also expanding our exploration portfolio. We have we have acquired blocks in Uruguay, which is a very, I would say, promising basin and soon, we will update you also on our plans in Uruguay. As far as the financial structure on Venezuela, Claudio already said, which will be our setup.
我們估計峰值產量約為 550,000 桶油當量,其中 200,000 為液體,其餘為用於出口的 LNG。而這就是——我會說——已發現、接下來要開發的儲量庫存。我們也在擴大我們的勘探投資組合。我們已在烏拉圭取得區塊,這是一個我認為很有前景的盆地;很快我們也會向各位更新我們在烏拉圭的計畫。至於委內瑞拉的財務架構,Claudio 已經說明了,這將是我們的設置方式。
In Argentina, we are in partnership with YPF, the National Oil Company and -- and this will be an incorporated venture, which will manage all the value chain from the upstream to the midstream up to the export. The export is on an equity equity-like basis from all the -- from at least to international shareholders.
在阿根廷,我們與國家石油公司 YPF 合作——而且這將是一個公司化的合資企業(incorporated venture),將管理從上游到中游直至出口的整個價值鏈。出口將以類似股權(equity-like)的方式,至少面向所有國際股東。
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Claudio Descalzi - Chief Executive Officer, General Manager, Executive Director
Thank you, done, just to add something from in perspective. we talk about energy rate. So we really -- we have to increase production in and find energy. And the situation is quite different with respect to what happened 10 years ago, 5 years ago, only or 10 years ago. We have Russia.
謝謝,Done,我想再從另一個角度補充一下。我們談的是能源競賽。所以我們確實——必須提高產量並找到能源。而現在的情況與 10 年前、5 年前,甚至僅僅 10 年前所發生的事情相比,已經非常不同。我們有俄羅斯。
We have all the goals. Now what was certain a few years ago now is no more certain. And we lost some country where we can go there and buy energy, Russia, okay, they produce. They're still pursue, but we are not now this or to Qatar to other.
我們有所有的目標。幾年前還確定的事情,現在已不再確定。而且我們失去了一些可以去那裡購買能源的國家——俄羅斯,好吧,他們有生產。他們仍在推進,但我們現在無法這樣做,或是去卡達或其他地方。
In the future, we are going to have again, I hope so. But in many case, we need more energy. And the race to energy now is different because there is no country where you can go there and buy energy. You had to go there and explore. You have to go there and develop.
未來我們會再次擁有,我希望如此。但在很多情況下,我們需要更多能源。而現在的能源競賽不同,因為已經沒有哪個國家是你可以直接去那裡買能源的。你必須去那裡勘探。你必須去那裡開發。
You have to go there and put in production. And then you can have your energy. So not just diversification. If you say that we need just diversification, you are superficial. You must have the skill to go there and find your resources and stay on the value chain.
你必須去那裡投產。然後你才能擁有你的能源。所以不只是多元化。如果你說我們只需要多元化,那你就太表面了。你必須具備到那裡去找到資源、並留在價值鏈上的能力。
So that is very -- is a different pipeline. So the world is changing. It's no more a question of buying stuff and sell stuff. We are not in the commercial or just trading. You must be in the industrial situation where you're able to explore, develop and produce.
所以這是非常——是一條不同的管線。世界正在改變。不再只是買東西、賣東西的問題。我們不是在做商業或只是交易。你必須處於一種工業化的狀態,能夠勘探、開發並生產。
This is really something going back to the basis -- maybe yes, but that is the iteration of today. Diversification is not enough. You must do the work from the beginning to the end, if you want to win this energy rise. Thank you very much.
這確實是在回到基本面——也許是,但這就是今天的迭代。多元化並不足夠。如果你想在這場能源競賽中勝出,你必須從頭到尾把工作做完。非常感謝。
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Jon Rigby - Head of Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Thank you, Matt, for that question. I'm going to wrap the Q&A up right now. So again, apologies to those who weren't able to ask a question, do please follow up with the Investor Relations team. I'm going to say good luck for the rest of the reporting season, and please do enjoy a nice holiday period, and we look forward to seeing you in September. Bye.
謝謝你,Matt,提出這個問題。我現在要結束問答環節。再次向未能提問的各位致歉,請務必與投資人關係團隊後續聯繫。祝各位接下來的財報季一切順利,也請好好享受假期,我們期待在 9 月與各位見面。再見。