Duolingo Inc (DUOL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 2025 年 Q4 營運表現穩健,全年首次突破 50M DAU、超過 10 億美元 bookings、3 億美元以上調整後 EBITDA,展現規模獲利能力
    • 2026 年新指引:bookings 成長 10-12%、營收成長 15-18%、調整後 EBITDA margin 約 25%;Q1 指引 bookings 成長 11%、營收成長 25%、EBITDA margin 25.5%
    • 公司宣布 4 億美元庫藏股計畫,強調資本配置紀律;短期 bookings 成長與獲利將放緩,市場預期需調整
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 技術進步將大幅提升教學品質,預期可達到一對一家教水準並兼具遊戲化樂趣
      • 積極投資語言教學、優化免費用戶體驗、發展新成長引擎(數學、音樂、國際象棋)
      • 中期目標 2028 年 DAU 達 1 億,若達標將顯著提升品牌韌性、bookings 與獲利
      • 多科目用戶留存率較高,隨著新科目滲透率提升,有望帶動整體用戶黏著度
    • 風險:
      • 2025 年 DAU 成長明顯趨緩,2026 年預期僅 20% YoY,短期 bookings 與獲利成長放緩
      • 優先去除免費用戶摩擦、減少過度變現,短期內可能壓抑營收與獲利表現
      • AI 降低進入門檻,潛在新競爭者風險存在,但管理層認為自身產品複雜度與規模具護城河
      • 廣告變現策略調整,短期不會提高 ad load,需靠直銷與高品質廣告提升單位收益
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • DAU(每日活躍用戶):2025 年突破 5,000 萬,2026 年預期 YoY 成長 20%,但成長動能趨緩
    • Chess(國際象棋):上線不到一年 DAU 已達 700 萬,成為全球第二大棋類平台
    • Super/Max 訂閱:Super 訂閱人數約為 Max 10 倍,未來將測試將 video call 功能下放至 Super
    • 付費滲透率:約 10% MAU 為付費用戶,管理層認為仍有大幅提升空間
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年 bookings 成長 10-12%,營收成長 15-18%,調整後 EBITDA margin 約 25%
    • Q1 指引:bookings 成長 11%,營收成長 25%,EBITDA margin 25.5%
    • 2026 年毛利率預期下滑,主因 AI 功能擴大至更多用戶
    • 2026 年 R&D 及行銷費用成長將超越營收成長
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: AI 技術進步下,Duolingo 如何把握用戶成長機會?2028 年 1 億 DAU 目標的關鍵策略為何?
      A: AI 讓教學品質大幅提升,能像一對一家教又兼具遊戲樂趣。三大投資重點:語言教學升級、優化免費用戶體驗、發展新科目(數學、音樂、象棋)。象棋不到一年 DAU 已 700 萬,顯示新科目潛力。
    • Q: Super/Max 訂閱產品線調整,video call 功能下放 Super 會如何影響變現?
      A: AI 成本下降,將測試 video call 放入 Super。會進行 AB test,觀察對訂閱轉換與留存的影響,若對 bookings 負面影響大,會考慮設限(如每日次數)。目標是讓更多人受惠於 AI 教學。
    • Q: 2026 年 bookings 成長指引下修,主要原因?何時可見用戶成長回溫?
      A: Bookings 下修一半因用戶成長趨緩,一半因減少摩擦、優化免費體驗。Q1 bookings 目前略高於指引,但全年仍有高基期壓力。預期用戶成長與變現回溫要到年底才會逐步顯現。
    • Q: 市場擔憂 AI 翻譯工具與聊天機器人搶用戶,管理層如何看待競爭與市場飽和?
      A: AI 翻譯對用戶流失影響極小,主因用戶多為興趣或學英語需求。語言學習 app 市佔率 85%,滲透率美國僅 2%,全球遠未飽和。競爭者難以複製 Duolingo 的產品複雜度與免費規模。
    • Q: 廣告業務未來策略?會否提高 ad load?
      A: 不會提高 ad load,仍維持每課一則。重點轉向直銷高品質廣告、提升單位收益,並嘗試語言學習相關廣告創新。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • (video playing)

    (影片播放)

  • Welcome everyone to Duolingo's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings webcast. Today after market close, we released this quarter's shareholder letter, a copy of which you can find on our IR website at investors.duolingo.com.

    歡迎大家參加 Duolingo 2025 年第四季財報網路直播。今天收盤後,我們發布了本季度的股東信,您可以在我們的投資者關係網站 investors.duolingo.com 上找到該信的副本。

  • On today's call, we have Luis Von Ahn, our Co-Founder and CEO; and Gillian Munson, who we are pleased to welcome as our new CFO. They will begin with some prepared remarks before we open the call for questions.(Operator Instructions) And please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    在今天的電話會議上,我們有共同創辦人兼執行長路易斯·馮·安,以及我們很高興歡迎加入的新任財務長吉莉安·芒森。在正式開始提問環節之前,他們會先作一些事先準備好的發言。 (操作說明)請注意,本次通話正在錄音。(操作說明)

  • Before we begin, please note we will make some forward-looking statements regarding future events and financial performance. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings and are based on assumptions we believe to be reasonable as of today. We undertake no obligation to update them.

    在開始之前,請注意,我們將對未來事件和財務表現做出一些前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所描述的風險和不確定性的影響,並且是基於我們認為截至目前為止合理的假設。我們不承擔更新這些資訊的義務。

  • We will also discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between the two can be found in our earnings materials, and we encourage you to review them when evaluating our performance.

    我們也將討論GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。兩者之間的調節情況可在我們的收益資料中找到,我們鼓勵您在評估我們的績效時查閱這些資料。

  • And now I will turn it over to Luis.

    現在我把麥克風交給路易斯。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Thank you everyone for joining us. I want to start by talking about Matt Skarupa who, up until today, has presided over 100% of our earnings calls as our CFO. It really has been one of the singular honors of my career to work with Matt. Matt, I know you're watching tonight and thank you, really, for everything you did for our mission.

    感謝各位的參與。首先我想談談 Matt Skarupa,直到今天,他一直擔任我們的財務官,主持了我們所有的獲利電話會議。能與馬特共事,真是我職業生涯中最榮幸的事情之一。馬特,我知道你今晚在看電視,真的非常感謝你為我們的任務所做的一切。

  • Now, Matt is a hard act to follow, so I can't think of anybody better to take his place than the person who helped us hire him, our long-term Board member and Chair of our Audit Committee, Gillian Munson. She's our new CFO. She's here with us today and I'm very much looking forward to working closely with her.

    現在,馬特很難被取代,所以我認為沒有人比幫助我們聘請他的人——我們長期的董事會成員兼審計委員會主席吉莉安·芒森——更適合接替他的職位。她是我們新任的財務長。她今天和我們在一起,我非常期待與她密切合作。

  • Now, let's get to the business at hand. 2025 was another strong year for Duolingo. For the first time, we surpassed 50 million daily active users, and that's more than 5 times as many as we had when we IPOed in 2021. We also delivered over $1 billion dollars in bookings, and more than $300 million in adjusted EBITDA.

    現在,讓我們回到正題。 2025年對多鄰國來說又是強勁的一年。我們首次突破了 5,000 萬日活躍用戶大關,這比我們在 2021 年上市時的用戶數量增加了 5 倍以上。我們也實現了超過 10 億美元的預訂金額,以及超過 3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

  • I'm proud that we have built a business that is profitable at scale and that is having a huge positive impact in the world. But what excites me most is not what we've already achieved, it's what's ahead. I'm more convinced than ever that the accelerating advances in AI will fundamentally change the way people learn.

    我為我們打造了一家規模化獲利且對世界產生巨大正面影響的企業而感到自豪。但最令我興奮的不是我們已經取得的成就,而是未來的發展。我比以往任何時候都更加確信,人工智慧的加速發展將從根本上改變人們的學習方式。

  • This creates an enormous opportunity for us. We are the most popular education app in the world by a margin, and we intend to lead this shift. By leaning into this moment, we believe we can redefine the future of learning while generating exceptional value for our shareholders over the long-term. So huge opportunity ahead of us, and the most important thing right now is to continue attracting users. We said this in our last earnings call.

    這為我們創造了巨大的機會。我們是全球最受歡迎的教育類應用程序,而且我們打算引領這項變革。我們相信,把握當下,我們能夠重新定義學習的未來,同時為股東創造長期的卓越價值。因此,我們面前有巨大的機遇,現在最重要的是繼續吸引用戶。我們在上次財報電話會議上也說過這一點。

  • Now while our DAU growth over the past several years has been nothing short of phenomenal, it decelerated throughout 2025, and as the new year began, we continued seeing this trend. We now expect the DAU growth to be about 20% year over year throughout 2026. This reinforced my conviction that we needed to take more decisive actions to re-accelerate the growth.

    雖然過去幾年我們的每日活躍用戶成長堪稱驚人,但2025年全年成長放緩,新年伊始,我們繼續看到這種趨勢。我們現在預計,到 2026 年,每日活躍用戶數將年增約 20%。這更加堅定了我的信念,即我們需要採取更果斷的行動來重新加速成長。

  • Another way of saying -- another way of seeing it is that long-term value in this business is driven by two things: the size of our active learner base, that's like the size of the pie; and how effectively we monetize that base. You can think of that as the piece of the pie that pays. At this moment we are prioritizing growing the size of the pie. So as I detailed in our shareholder letter, we have a carefully considered plan for 2026 that focuses on teaching better and user growth.

    換句話說——或者說,從另一個角度來看,這項業務的長期價值取決於兩件事:我們活躍學習者群體的規模,這就像蛋糕的大小;以及我們如何有效地將這個群體貨幣化。你可以把它看作是那塊能帶來收益的蛋糕。目前,我們的首要任務是把蛋糕做大。正如我在致股東信中詳細闡述的那樣,我們制定了一項經過深思熟慮的 2026 年計劃,重點是提高教學品質和促進用戶成長。

  • In addition to the thousands of AB tests we plan to run in 2026 to improve our product, we have larger initiatives that fall into three categories: teaching languages better, improving the free user experience, and feeding our next growth engines, meaning our subjects of math, music, and chess. All of this is in service of growing DAUs faster.

    除了我們計劃在 2026 年開展數千次 AB 測試來改進我們的產品之外,我們還有更大的舉措,這些舉措分為三類:更好地教授語言、改善免費用戶體驗以及為我們的下一個增長引擎(即我們的數學、音樂和國際象棋科目)提供養分。這一切都是為了更快地成長日活躍用戶數。

  • Our medium-term goal is to reach 100 million daily active users in 2028. If we succeed in doubling our DAUs, the payoff would be significant, a more resilient brand, a business with meaningfully higher bookings and profit, and most importantly, a company that reaches and teaches far more people around the world.

    我們的中期目標是 2028 年實現每日活躍用戶數達到 1 億。如果我們成功將日活躍用戶數翻一番,回報將是巨大的:一個更具韌性的品牌,一家預訂量和利潤顯著提高的企業,最重要的是,一家能夠觸及和教導世界各地更多人的公司。

  • But in the short-term, the short-term implication is that this year we'll see slower bookings growth and lower profitability as captured in our guide. I want you to know that I don't take this decision lightly and that I know it may come as a surprise to some investors, but it's fundamentally aligned with what I said to shareholders in my very first letter, which I will now read.

    但就短期而言,其短期影響是,正如我們的指南中所反映的那樣,今年的預訂成長速度將會放緩,獲利能力也會下降。我想讓你們知道,我做出這個決定並非輕率之舉,我也知道這可能會讓一些投資者感到意外,但這與我在第一封致股東的信中所說的內容從根本上是一致的,我現在就來讀一下這封信。

  • Dear potential investors, the main thing you need to know is that I plan to dedicate my life to building a future in which, through technology, every person on this planet has access to the best quality of education, and not only that, but a future in which people want to spend their time learning. Duolingo is the platform for building that future, and we are just getting started.

    尊敬的潛在投資者們,你們最需要了解的是,我計劃將我的一生奉獻給一個未來,在這個未來中,透過科技,地球上的每個人都能獲得最優質的教育,不僅如此,我還希望創造一個人們願意把時間花在學習上的未來。Duolingo 是建立未來的平台,而我們才剛起步。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Gillian long-term Munson.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給長期合作的吉莉安‧芒森。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Luis, for the really warm welcome. Being a full-time member of this team is going to be a great adventure. I'd be remiss if I didn't say a huge thank you to my friend and colleague, Matt Skarupa, who we are all going to miss and who I wish all the best.

    路易斯,非常感謝你的熱情歡迎。成為這個團隊的全職成員將會是一次很棒的冒險。如果我不向我的朋友和同事 Matt Skarupa 表達衷心的感謝,那就太失職了。我們都會想念他,祝他一切順利。

  • We had a solid finish to the year and ended a strong financial position, a great platform from which to look forward strategically, as Luis explained.

    正如路易斯所解釋的那樣,我們以穩健的業績結束了這一年,並保持了強勁的財務狀況,這為我們未來的策略發展奠定了良好的基礎。

  • Turning to the go-forward plan and guidance. In our shareholder letter, we have included a lot of specific details to help you with your 2026 modeling, likely more than we will going forward. I'll repeat a bit here and add some color in areas we really want to be sure we emphasize.

    接下來討論後續計劃和指導方針。我們在致股東的信中,提供了許多具體細節,以幫助您進行 2026 年的建模,這可能比我們今後提供的更多。我在這裡重複一下,並對我們真正想要強調的領域進行一些補充說明。

  • At the highest level, our 2026 guidance is bookings growth of 10% to 12%, revenue growth of 15% to 18%, and adjusted EBITDA margin around 25%. For our Q1 guidance, it is 11% bookings growth, 25% revenue growth, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%.

    最高層級上,我們對 2026 年的業績預期是:預訂量成長 10% 至 12%,營收成長 15% 至 18%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 25%。對於第一季業績指引,我們預計預訂量將成長 11%,營收成長 25%,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.5%。

  • Here are some details that I hope will help you with your models. Looking at bookings. Quarter to date as of last Friday, Q1 bookings growth was tracking above our Q1 guidance. However, it's important to remember that we are heading into a particularly tough compare. In the first half with Dead Duo, a price increase, particularly strong advertising bookings, and the rollout of energy.

    以下是一些細節,希望對您的模型有所幫助。查看預訂狀況。截至上週五,第一季迄今的預訂量成長超過了我們第一季的預期。然而,需要記住的是,我們將面臨一場非常艱難的比較。上半年,Dead Duo 樂團的演出價格上漲,廣告預訂量大幅增加,能源產品也開始上市。

  • We are modeling some improvement to bookings growth rates at the end of the year, but have only factored in modest early returns on our investments at this point, which we think is prudent, as shifts like the ones we are making can take some time to materialize.

    我們預計年底預訂成長率會有所改善,但目前只考慮了投資的早期溫和回報,我們認為這是謹慎的做法,因為我們正在進行的這種轉變需要一些時間才能實現。

  • Turning to revenue. We believe that the rate of year-to-year revenue growth will adjust down following bookings growth rates over the course of the year, with some stabilization in the second half. Given our Q1 guidance is 25% growth, the math implies that quarters three and four will be below the low end of this guidance range.

    轉向營收。我們認為,隨著預訂量在年內持續下降,年度收入成長率也將隨下調整,並在下半年趨於穩定。鑑於我們第一季的預期成長率為 25%,由此計算可知,第三季和第四季的成長率將低於預期範圍的下限。

  • As for costs, as you think about our COGS, the key thing to keep in mind is that we plan to share AI features with a far greater portion of our user base. This is anticipated in the lower gross margins that we outlined in our letter. Additionally, we are investing in 2026. As a result, we expect that R&D and sales and marketing spend growth will outpace revenue growth.

    至於成本方面,在考慮我們的銷售成本時,需要記住的關鍵一點是,我們計劃與更大比例的用戶群共享人工智慧功能。正如我們在信中提到的,較低的毛利率預計也會導致這種情況。此外,我們也於2026年進行投資。因此,我們預期研發、銷售和行銷支出成長將超過收入成長。

  • Putting it all together, the trajectory of adjusted EBITDA margins will likely be slightly different in 2026 than in previous years. In Q1, we've guided to 25.5% adjusted EBITDA margin, and we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to decline roughly 3 points sequentially in Q2. Then it will improve through the back half of the year with Q4 being our highest margin quarter in 2026.

    綜合來看,2026 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的趨勢可能與往年略有不同。第一季度,我們預計調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 25.5%,預計第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將季減約 3 個百分點。然後,下半年情況會有所改善,第四季將是 2026 年利潤率最高的季度。

  • I'd note, however, that we do manage to annual targets, and the timing of our spending could shift, which we will update you on as we continue the year. That's a lot of detail we know. We hope that, in combination with the shareholder letter, this does help you manage your estimates as we execute our strategy.

    不過,需要指出的是,我們確實能夠實現年度目標,而且我們的支出時間可能會有所調整,我們會在今年繼續進行的過程中向您通報最新情況。我們知道的細節真是不少。我們希望,結合股東信函,這能幫助您在我們執行策略的過程中更好地進行估算。

  • You may ask about our guidance philosophy, and so I thought I'd note that, this year, our view is that like in Q4, our hope is to narrow the gap between our guidance and actuals versus what you have generally seen from Duolingo in the past.

    您可能會問到我們的指導理念,所以我想指出,今年我們的觀點是,就像第四季度一樣,我們希望縮小指導目標與實際目標之間的差距,以彌補過去多鄰國業績普遍下滑的局面。

  • Finally, I would like to highlight our buyback authorization that was announced today. Our Board has authorized a buyback of up to $400 million in our shares. We believe this represents good capital allocation discipline and expect to execute upon this authorization in the coming year.

    最後,我想重點介紹一下我們今天宣布的回購授權。我們的董事會已批准回購最多 4 億美元的股份。我們認為這體現了良好的資本配置紀律,並期待在未來一年內執行這項授權。

  • I couldn't be more excited to join this company at this time. The size and scale of the market opportunity ahead is massive, and I very much view 2026 as a foundational year to achieve that opportunity.

    我非常興奮能在這個時候加入這家公司。未來的市場機會規模龐大,我非常看好 2026 年是實現這機會的基礎之年。

  • Thank you, Luis. I'm excited to step into this role during this important moment at the company. And now I'll turn it back to the operator, and we can take your questions.

    謝謝你,路易斯。我很榮幸能在公司這個重要時刻擔任這一職位。現在我把麥克風交還給接線員,我們可以回答您的問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Bryan Smilek, JPMorgan.

    (操作說明)布萊恩‧史邁萊克,摩根大通。

  • Bryan Smilek - Analyst

    Bryan Smilek - Analyst

  • Luis, to start, can you just elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing in the market across AI, and just overall innovation across the technology space that makes this the right time for the strategic shift to re-accelerate user growth? And I guess more fundamentally to achieve your 2028 target to double users, what are the, call it one to two top priorities across the product that will really enhance that DAU growth and drive the implied acceleration to get there?

    路易斯,首先,你能否詳細說明一下你目前在人工智慧市場以及整個技術領域的創新情況,說明為什麼現在是進行策略轉變以重新加速用戶成長的合適時機?我想,更根本的是,為了實現你們在 2028 年用戶數量翻倍的目標,在產品方面,有哪些最重要的優先事項(比如一到兩項)能夠真正提升日活躍用戶數 (DAU) 的增長,並推動實現這一目標的加速進程?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Thank you, Bryan. Thank you for the question. Okay, in terms of AI, look, we really are in a unique time in history. AI is going to allow us to teach significantly better, and I also believe that the way people learn is just going to change. And the reason for that is I think that in the next few years, we are going to see quality of teaching that is as good as a one on one tutor.

    謝謝你,布萊恩。謝謝你的提問。好吧,就人工智慧而言,我們確實正處於一個獨特的歷史時期。人工智慧將使我們能夠更好地進行教學,而且我相信人們的學習方式也將改變。我認為,未來幾年內,我們將看到教學品質達到一對一輔導的水平。

  • We're going to see that. But not only that, not only is it as good as a one on one tutor, but it'll be as fun as a mobile game. So it's this incredible thing that's going to happen. And you know, the things that we're seeing is we're just -- we're able to find where users or learners are having trouble and really specialize in that and answer all their questions and you know whenever they have any kind of confusion, we can get in there and really fix it.

    我們會看到這一點。不僅如此,它不僅可以像一對一輔導一樣好,而且還會像手機遊戲一樣有趣。所以,這是一件不可思議的事情即將發生。你知道,我們看到的情況是——我們能夠找到用戶或學習者遇到困難的地方,並真正專注於此,回答他們所有的問題,你知道,無論何時他們有任何困惑,我們都可以介入並真正解決問題。

  • We also -- in the case -- in the case of teaching languages, we can finally practice conversation better. We have this feature video call with Lily. It keeps getting better and better at being able to practice your conversation and so we can see improvements in how well people are learning.

    我們也——就語言教學而言——我們終於可以更好地練習對話了。我們有這個和莉莉的視訊通話功能。它在練習對話方面越來越好,因此我們可以看到人們的學習效果有所改善。

  • And the same is true for all our other subjects. Certainly with math, like I said in our shareholder letter, I believe that this year we're going to have the best tutor app for math. This is going to be Duolingo Math and you know it'll just -- I think this is a huge market potential. There's about a billion people learning math in the world, so we'll be able to teach them, as many as we can really well.

    其他所有科目也是如此。當然,就數學而言,正如我在致股東信中所說,我相信今年我們將擁有最好的數學輔導應用程式。這將會是多鄰國數學,你知道它會——我認為這具有巨大的市場潛力。世界上大約有十億人在學數學,所以我們能夠教他們,而且能教的越多,我們就能教得越好。

  • So I'm very excited about AI in general, and this is why I think now is the time to try to attract as many users as possible.

    我對人工智慧總體上感到非常興奮,這也是為什麼我認為現在是盡可能吸引更多用戶的最佳時機。

  • Now in terms of what are the top priorities that will allow us to get to 100 million daily active users by 2028, it's a number of things.

    至於 2028 年實現 1 億日活躍用戶的目標,最重要的幾件事是什麼,這涉及到很多方面。

  • In general, the three buckets that we are going to be investing in are teaching languages. Better languages is our largest subject and it will continue being our largest subject for a while. We're going to teach languages significantly better and there's a lot of work there.

    總的來說,我們將投資的三大領域是語言教學。語言學習是我們最大的科目,而且在未來一段時間內仍將是我們最大的科目。我們將大幅提升語言教學水平,這方面還有很多工作要做。

  • Another one is in making the free-user experience better. The less friction that there is in the user -- the free-user experience, the more users we have. We have seen this over the last 15 years. Whenever we remove friction from the free-user experience, you -- DAUs grow. So that is that is another one.

    另一個目標是改善免費用戶的體驗。使用者體驗越流暢(即使用者體驗越自由),我們的使用者就越多。在過去15年裡,我們已經看到了這種情況。當我們消除免費用戶體驗中的摩擦時,您的每日活躍用戶數就會成長。所以,這是另一個例子。

  • And then the third thing that we're going to be doing is just investing a lot in our new growth engines. That's our new subjects. So in particular, chess has grown quite a bit. As I said in our in our shareholder letter, we have about 7 million daily active users in chess, and this is less than a year after we launched.

    第三,我們要做的就是增加對新成長引擎的投資。這就是我們新的研究主題。尤其是西洋棋,發展得相當不錯。正如我在致股東信中所說,我們的國際象棋平台日活躍用戶約為 700 萬,而這距離我們推出該平台還不到一年。

  • At this point we believe we're the second largest chess thing in the world, and -- which is, by the way, incredible because if you search for chess on the App Store, we don't appear in the results. We just haven't even gotten there to doing App Store optimization, but we already got the 7 million daily active users.

    目前我們相信我們是世界上第二大國際象棋應用,而且——順便說一句,這很不可思議,因為如果你在 App Store 上搜尋國際象棋,我們不會出現在搜尋結果中。我們甚至還沒開始做應用程式商店優化,就已經擁有了700萬日活躍用戶。

  • So those are the things that I think are going to help us get there.

    所以我認為這些因素將有助於我們實現目標。

  • Bryan Smilek - Analyst

    Bryan Smilek - Analyst

  • Great, thanks. And then I guess, elaborating a bit more, you mentioned video call as well too. Can you talk about the philosophy, and the product roadmap really across Max versus Super.

    太好了,謝謝。然後,我想,再詳細說說,您也提到了視訊通話。您能否談談Max和Super之間的理念和產品路線圖?

  • And I -- you've been very transparent in the past in terms of oscillating the features and the relative pricing set. So how should we think about just overall the Max roadmap as you start to shift those video calls to Super users as well?

    而且——你過去在調整功能和相對定價方面一直非常透明。那麼,隨著你們開始將視訊通話功能也推廣到超級用戶,我們該如何看待 Max 的整體發展路線圖呢?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. When we started Max a few years ago, we introduced some AI features. We were Super excited about all the AI features because they really can help us teach better. At the time, cost for AI inference was way higher than it is now. And so we decided to put our AI features behind a much higher subscription tier which is Duolingo Max. That's what we have done.

    是的。幾年前我們創立 Max 時,就引進了一些人工智慧功能。我們對所有人工智慧功能都感到非常興奮,因為它們確實可以幫助我們更好地教學。當時,人工智慧推理的成本遠高於現在。因此,我們決定將我們的人工智慧功能放在更高層級的訂閱服務中,即 Duolingo Max。我們就是這麼做的。

  • But we said back then that as AI costs came down, we would experiment putting features in the different tiers because ultimately our goal is to be able to teach as many people as possible. At this point, the cost of a video call has gone down very significantly over the last couple of years since we launched video call, and we feel pretty comfortable being able to put it inside Super Duolingo.

    但我們當時就說過,隨著人工智慧成本的下降,我們將嘗試在不同的層級中加入各種功能,因為我們最終的目標是能夠教導盡可能多的人。到目前為止,自從我們推出視訊通話功能以來,視訊通話的成本在過去幾年已經大幅下降,因此我們很有信心將其整合到 Super Duolingo 中。

  • Now, like everything we do, this is going to be an AB test. We're going to AB test what happens if we put some video call in Super Duolingo. I'm not sure what that AB test will do. It may be that this increases revenue because more people sign up to Super Duolingo or because the retention of Super Duolingo is significantly higher because video call is there.

    現在,就像我們所做的所有事情一樣,這將是一次 A/B 測試。我們將進行AB測試,看看在Super Duolingo中加入視訊通話功能會發生什麼。我不確定AB測試會得到什麼結果。這可能是因為更多人註冊了 Super Duolingo,或者因為有了視訊通話功能,Super Duolingo 的用戶留存率顯著提高,從而增加了收入。

  • Or it may be that it decreases bookings because we're not making as much money from selling Max. I don't know what it'll do. But whatever it does, we're going to take the appropriate actions. So for example, if the decrease in bookings is too high, we may do something like we meter video calls. So for example on Super Duolingo you only get access to one video call a day versus on Max you get unlimited.

    或者,也可能是因為我們從銷售 Max 中獲得的利潤減少了,導致預訂量下降。我不知道它會發生什麼。但無論結果如何,我們都會採取相應的措施。例如,如果預訂量下降幅度過大,我們可能會採取一些措施,例如對視訊通話進行計費。例如,Super Duolingo 每天只能進行一次視訊通話,而 Max 版本則可以無限次進行視訊通話。

  • Now I'm saying all of this very much in advance because I don't actually know what we will win in these AB tests, but what I will tell you is that for sure we will put some form of video call in our Super tier because we just think that it will help us teach a lot better to a significantly larger number of people. There's about 10 times as many subscribers on Super than there are on Max. So if we put video call on Super, 10 times as many people have access to conversational practice.

    我之所以提前說這些,是因為我其實不知道我們會在這些AB測試中取得什麼結果,但我可以肯定的是,我們會在超級套餐中加入某種形式的視訊通話功能,因為我們認為這將有助於我們更好地向更多的人進行教學。Super 版的訂閱用戶數量大約是 Max 版的 10 倍。所以,如果我們把視訊通話功能放在Super平台上,那麼進行會話練習的人數就會增加10倍。

  • And the other thing that I think is we're going to do this on our own terms. I mean, my sense is that, over time, it will not make sense to have a feature like video call on their plan that is so expensive as Max. So you know we're doing it from a position of strength right now where our finances are very strong and we're going to just do that as opposed to, if we have to do it defensively three years from now because a competitor popped up.

    還有一點我認為,我們將按照我們自己的方式做這件事。我的意思是,我的感覺是,隨著時間的推移,在像 Max 這樣昂貴的套餐中加入視訊通話這樣的功能是不合理的。所以你知道,我們現在處於強勢地位,財務狀況非常穩健,我們會繼續保持這種優勢,而不是等到三年後因為競爭對手出現而不得不採取防禦性措施。

  • I mean at the moment we really are not worried about competition, so we're getting ahead of it.

    我的意思是,目前我們真的不擔心競爭,所以我們正在搶先一步。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. And Bryan, we designed the guidance to give the company the room to go do all of this and experiment with this and do the right thing for our customers, and that's precisely how the guidance and the way we're thinking about the financials this year are designed.

    是的。布萊恩,我們制定指導方針的目的是為了讓公司有空間去做所有這些事情,進行這些試驗,並為我們的客戶做正確的事情,而這正是我們制定指導方針以及我們今年思考財務狀況的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ralph Shackart, William Blair.

    拉爾夫·沙卡特,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ralph Schackart - Analyst

    Ralph Schackart - Analyst

  • Luis, last call, when you talked about the reprioritization for 2026, and I think, you know, it was sort of contemplated it was going to have some impact on the financials for 2026, but maybe not to the level guided that was presented today. At least that was my interpretation. I could certainly have that wrong.

    路易斯,最後一個問題,你談到了 2026 年的重新優先排序,我認為,你知道,當時人們考慮到這會對 2026 年的財務狀況產生一些影響,但可能不會達到今天公佈的預期水平。至少我是這麼理解的。我當然有可能弄錯了。

  • But I guess, did something change since last quarter in terms of how you thought about 2026? So the user growth, you know, is this larger than perhaps you originally anticipated?

    不過我想問一下,與上個季度相比,您對 2026 年的看法是否有所改變?所以用戶成長是否比您最初預期的要大?

  • And then maybe a question, Gillian, on the 20% DAU growth. You know, when these friction points or monetization friction points are removed, should we expect some re-acceleration in the DAU metrics? And I guess you sort of suggested that you're tracking above in bookings, maybe just some kind of early reads as you're removing some of these friction points, how the user growth is responding.

    那麼,吉莉安,關於日活躍用戶數成長 20% 的問題,也許可以問一下。你知道,當這些摩擦點或獲利摩擦點被消除後,我們是否應該期待每日活躍用戶數指標出現一些重新加速成長?我想你剛才也暗示過,你在追蹤上面的預訂情況,也許只是在消除一些摩擦點時進行一些早期觀察,看看用戶增長是如何響應的。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Thank you, Ralph, for your question. So yes, in the last call, as you said, we said that we would be concentrating on user growth. And for similar reasons as now, one, we had seen deceleration of DAU growth throughout 2025, some deceleration of user growth. And in addition to that, we think this is just a unique opportunity where instead of decelerating user growth, we should be accelerating user growth because we should just capture this opportunity.

    謝謝你的提問,拉爾夫。是的,正如你所說,在上次電話會議上,我們說過我們將專注於用戶成長。出於與現在類似的原因,第一,我們看到 2025 年 DAU 成長放緩,用戶成長也出現一定程度的放緩。除此之外,我們認為這是一個千載難逢的機會,我們不應該減緩用戶成長,而應該加速用戶成長,因為我們應該抓住這個機會。

  • So that was what we said in the last earnings call. What happened between then and now are two things. The first is that we kept on seeing this trend of user deceleration. And by now, we expect about 20% year-over-year DAU growth throughout 2026.

    這就是我們在上次財報電話會議上所說的。從那時到現在發生了兩件事。首先,我們持續觀察到用戶成長放緩的趨勢。預計到 2026 年,每日活躍用戶數將年增約 20%。

  • And the other thing is that my conviction of AI just increased even more. And that just made it so that I have even more conviction that we need to spend really the vast majority of our efforts on DAU growth. And as we built the plan for 2026, this is what came out. I mean, the guidance that we're giving.

    還有一點就是,我對人工智慧的信心更加堅定了。這讓我更加確信,我們需要將絕大部分精力投入每日活躍用戶成長。當我們制定 2026 年計畫時,結果就是這樣。我的意思是,我們提供的指導。

  • And, you know, in terms of the 20%, I guess, Gillian, you can go ahead and answer.

    至於那 20% 的部分,我想,吉莉安,你可以回答一下了。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. So as Luis said, we really do expect that 20% through the year. In terms of the Q1, what we're seeing so far, it is tracking ahead of the guidance, and we think that shows everyone that there is a lot of health in the business. but you do have some really, really tough comps coming. And so the overall guide reflects that.

    是的。正如路易斯所說,我們確實預計今年將達到 20%。就第一季而言,目前來看,業績超出預期,我們認為這顯示公司業務發展動能良好。但接下來確實會面臨一些非常嚴峻的年比數據。因此,整體指南也體現了這一點。

  • A thing I think it's really important to put in context that Luis is talking about is the confidence we've gotten in going for the bigger price. And so when you think about that 20% and the 100 million target, that would imply an acceleration to much higher growth rates in the next couple of years.

    我認為路易斯所說的真正重要的一點是,我們更有信心去爭取更高的價格。因此,當你考慮到 20% 的成長和 1 億的目標時,這意味著未來幾年成長率將加速到更高的水平。

  • And if you kind of play that out in terms of what the financials could look at, that is, as Luis said, a much bigger business. So as we look at the business, we think to ourselves, okay, we could have grown the business. Probably we would be at about mid-teens CAGR over the next couple of years. If we could keep our margins where they are, we're probably looking at $1.5 billion business, $400-plus million in adjusted EBITDA.

    如果你從財務角度來分析一下,你會發現,正如路易斯所說,那是一家規模更大的企業。所以當我們審視這項業務時,我們會想,好吧,我們本來可以把業務做得更大。未來幾年,我們的複合年增長率可能在15%左右。如果我們能維持目前的利潤率,我們的業務規模可能會達到 15 億美元,調整後的 EBITDA 將超過 4 億美元。

  • But we at the company are really motivated to go for the bigger price, which is much more aligned with what Luis and Severin were thinking about when they founded the company. So then if you sort of play out the DAU, at least it's all back of the envelope. But if we can get to that DAU and even reasonable monetization assumptions from where we are today, and we believe we can scale our expenses over time, you're looking at a business in a couple of years that could be $2.5 billion with over $700 million in adjusted EBITDA.

    但我們公司確實有動力去爭取更高的價格,這與路易斯和塞弗林創立公司時的初衷更加一致。所以,如果你大致估算一下每日活躍用戶數(DAU),至少一切都只是粗略估計。但是,如果我們能夠達到目前的每日活躍用戶數 (DAU) 水平,並且實現合理的盈利目標,並且我們相信我們可以隨著時間的推移擴大支出規模,那麼幾年後,我們的業務規模可能會達到 25 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 超過 7 億美元。

  • And I think around this entire company, we're really motivated to go for the bigger price. And so that's what you're seeing and kind of how we're thinking about it.

    我認為我們整個公司都非常有動力去爭取更高的價格。所以這就是你現在看到的,也是我們思考這個問題的方式。

  • In terms of when you're going to see it in the model, we've really modeled it late in the year. So it's going to take a little while. What we're working on is going to take a lot of see-through it. But we do have a little bit in the end of the year. We think it's prudent to keep that small for now until we kind of get going. You'll start to see more and more as we move into '27 and '28.

    至於何時能在模型中看到它,我們已經將其建模為在今年稍後。所以還需要一段時間。我們正在做的事情需要很多透明度。但年底我們還有一些收入。我們認為,在正式啟動之前,暫時保持小規模規模是明智之舉。隨著我們進入 2027 年和 2028 年,你會看到越來越多的這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Mahaney, Evercore.

    Mark Mahaney,Evercore。

  • Mark Mahaney - Equity Analyst

    Mark Mahaney - Equity Analyst

  • I want to ask a growth question and a product question. The growth question is, you know, you mentioned these factors that caused this deceleration, you know, law of large numbers, increased maybe over-focus on monetization. There are two other potential reasons, too, so just address those, which is market saturation and competitive intensity. So are there new data points that just remind you or open your eyes even more to the long-term growth opportunity here?

    我想問一個關於成長的問題和一個關於產品的問題。成長問題在於,你知道,你提到了導致這種減速的這些因素,你知道,大數定律,以及可能過度關注貨幣化。還有另外兩個潛在原因,所以只需解決這兩個問題即可,即市場飽和和競爭激烈。那麼,是否有新的數據點讓你更加意識到或更清楚地認識到這裡的長期成長機會?

  • And then in the products, the video calls is a wonderful product. These other things that you're talking about, the speaking adventures, is that on the come? How soon should we expect that?

    此外,在產品方面,視訊通話功能非常出色。你提到的其他事情,像是演講冒險,是不是即將到來?我們大概什麼時候可以等到?

  • And getting to this more advanced content with all of your nine largest languages up to that 129 score, is that something that happens now? Is that something that's a multi-year build? How long does it take to get to those two products that we could potentially see the products and then the impact that they would have?

    現在,所有九種主要語言都能達到 129 分,從而學習到更高級的內容嗎?那是一個需要多年才能完成的專案嗎?從研發到最終看到這兩款產品,再到評估它們可能產生的影響,需要多長時間?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Thank you, Mark. Okay, so your first question is about market saturation and competition. We're worried about neither one of those.

    謝謝你,馬克。好的,你的第一個問題是關於市場飽和度和競爭的。我們並不擔心這兩件事。

  • In terms of competition, if you look at language learning apps, we have about 85% of the daily active users of language learning apps in the world. And that number has remained pretty flat over a while. Basically, we're just not particularly concerned about that.

    就競爭而言,如果你看看語言學習應用程序,我們擁有全球語言學習應用程式約 85% 的每日活躍用戶。而且這個數字在一段時間內一直保持相對穩定。基本上,我們對此並不太擔心。

  • In terms of market saturation, we're -- for example, we look at things like the percentage of daily active users in a given country compared to the size of the internet base of that country. So for example, in the United States, 2% of all internet users on a given day use Duolingo. So 2% penetration in the US for daily users. In the UK, that's 3%. In Germany, that's 4%. And Germany is not the highest country we have.

    就市場飽和度而言,例如,我們會考察某個國家/地區的每日活躍用戶數佔該國網路使用者總數的百分比。例如,在美國,每天有 2% 的網路使用者使用 Duolingo。因此,美國每日活躍用戶的滲透率為 2%。在英國,這個數字是 3%。在德國,這個數字是 4%。德國並不是我們所知的海拔最高的國家。

  • We actually think we can get much higher than that. But even if we only assume that every country got to 2%, which is the US penetration, we would more than double our daily active users. So I just don't think we're near saturation at all. And in general, we're not seeing anything different.

    我們認為我們實際上可以取得比這更高的成績。但即使我們只假設每個國家都達到 2% 的滲透率(即美國的滲透率),我們的每日活躍用戶數也會翻倍以上。所以我認為我們離飽和狀態還很遠。總的來說,我們沒有看到任何不同之處。

  • For example, we survey our churned users. And the answers to the surveys of our current users haven't really changed in years. And the most common answer, by the way, when people stop using Duolingo about where they go is that they stop learning. And that has been true for a while. So that's just not something we're particularly concerned about.

    例如,我們會對流失用戶進行調查。多年來,我們現有用戶的調查結果並沒有真正改變。順便說一句,人們停止使用 Duolingo 來了解自己去過哪裡的最常見原因是他們停止了學習。這種情況已經持續了一段時間。所以這並不是我們特別擔心的事情。

  • In terms of the features, you know, we mentioned in the shareholder letter, we mentioned speaking adventures. We're very excited about that. What the feature is, like, is basically it's a little game where you have to do something. For example, you may be told, you know, go buy a sandwich and, you know, give it to that person and then ask them for money or something, like something that you have to do.

    至於功能方面,你知道,我們在致股東的信中提到過,我們提到了「演講冒險」功能。我們對此感到非常興奮。這個功能其實就是一個小遊戲,你需要在遊戲裡完成一些事情。例如,你可能會被告知,去買個三明治,然後把它交給那個人,再向他要錢之類的,就像你必須做的事情一樣。

  • So in that, you know, you do a lot of things with just text, but every now and then in there you have to speak to get the things that you want. That's going to come out. That's going to be for all users, free and paid. That's going to be scaled. I mean, we're already testing it. That's going to be scaled sometime mid-year. So you probably see it in your app sometime between now and the middle of the year. We're very excited about that.

    所以,你知道,很多事情你都只用文字就能完成,但偶爾你還是需要說話才能得到你想要的東西。這件事遲早會水落石出。所有用戶,包括免費用戶和付費用戶,都將可以使用這項功能。這將進行規模化調整。我的意思是,我們已經在測試了。這項計劃將在年中某個時候進行規模化調整。所以你很可能在今年年中之前會在你的應用程式中看到它。我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • In terms of more advanced content, that's happening relatively soon. In a matter of a month or two, you will see significantly more advanced content. Basically, all of our courses that teach the top nine languages that we teach, which, by the way, cover more than 90% of our daily active users, will have content up to Duolingo score 129, which is a particularly important score because that's the score that you need in order to get a knowledge job in that language. So we're very excited about that, and that's coming now.

    至於更高級的內容,這種情況很快就會發生。一兩個月後,你會看到更高級的內容。基本上,我們所有教授排名前九的語言的課程(順便說一句,這些語言涵蓋了我們超過 90% 的每日活躍用戶)的內容都將達到 Duolingo 129 分,這是一個特別重要的分數,因為這是你在獲得該語言的知識型工作所需的分數。我們對此感到非常興奮,而且它即將到來。

  • Importantly to say, that content is going to go out there, and we're very happy about that, but that's just the beginning. As soon as it goes out there, we can start improving this content the same way we improve everything. And so over the remainder of the year, you're just going to see better and better versions of this more advanced content. And we're pretty excited about that.

    需要強調的是,這些內容將會發佈出去,我們對此感到非常高興,但這只是個開始。一旦內容發布,我們就可以像改進其他所有內容一樣,開始改進這些內容。因此,在今年剩餘的時間裡,你會看到越來越好的、更進階的內容版本。我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Justin Patterson, KeyBanc.

    Justin Patterson,KeyBanc。

  • Justin Patterson - Analyst

    Justin Patterson - Analyst

  • Luis, I was hoping you'd talk a little bit more about just the social strategy. We haven't really seen the same degree of virality through TikTok that you used to be getting. So we'd love to hear about how you're refining that and thinking of that as just a vector to grow daily usage.

    路易斯,我原本希望你能多談談社群媒體策略。我們已經沒有再看到像以前那樣透過 TikTok 獲得病毒式傳播的效果了。所以,我們很想了解您是如何改進這一點的,以及您是如何將其視為提高日常使用量的途徑的。

  • And then with respect to video call, I know you've made a lot of improvements within there designed to increase more words being spoken to make it easier to use. So I'd love to hear about just how that's been going versus expectations, and how you think moving this into the Super tier can really drive more engagement and eventually help contribute to that bookings reacceleration.

    至於視訊通話方面,我知道你們做了很多改進,旨在增加通話時長的語音量,使其更容易使用。所以我很想了解實際情況與預期相比如何,以及您認為將其提升到超級級別如何才能真正推動更多參與,並最終有助於重新加速預訂量。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. Thank you, Justin. In terms of our social marketing strategy, I mean, we have an excellent marketing team. Really, I think best in the business. Our videos are going viral, and they're getting millions of views. But I have to say the comparison point, particularly a year ago. A year ago, there were many weeks where we had the single most watched video in all of TikTok. That's incredible. So while we're still seeing virality in our videos, we're not in a position where it's the most watched video in all of TikTok.

    是的。謝謝你,賈斯汀。就我們的社群行銷策略而言,我的意思是,我們擁有一支優秀的行銷團隊。說真的,我認為他是業內最好的。我們的影片正在網路上瘋傳,點擊量已達數百萬。但我必須說,與一年前相比,情況尤其不同。一年前,我們曾多次連續數週擁有TikTok上觀看次數最多的單一影片。那真是難以置信。所以,雖然我們的影片仍然在網路上走紅,但我們還沒有達到成為TikTok上觀看次數最多的影片的程度。

  • There's a number of reasons for that. One of them is just algorithms have changed enough that it's harder to do that consistently. That's one reason. And in general, we're going to continue with the strategy of really trying to get as much variety as possible. And I'm pretty happy with the results so far. But you are right that compared to a year ago, it's not quite the same.

    這其中有很多原因。其中一個原因是演算法已經發生了很大的變化,因此很難始終如一地做到這一點。這是其中一個原因。總的來說,我們將繼續採取盡可能多樣化的策略。我對目前的結果相當滿意。但你說得對,與一年前相比,情況確實不太一樣了。

  • In terms of video call improvements, I'm very happy with the results for video call improvements. Basically, if you look at the graph of words spoken per user, on video call, that is just a monotonically increasing graph over time. It just keeps getting better and better and better. And basically, we're just a lot better at getting a Lily that you're talking to, to elicit more conversation.

    就視訊通話改進而言,我對視訊通話改進的效果非常滿意。基本上,如果你看一下視訊通話中每個用戶說的字數圖表,你會發現這是一個隨時間單調遞增的圖表。它真是越來越好了,越來越好了。基本上,我們更擅長引導你正在與之交談的莉莉展開更多對話。

  • Right now, we're trying a new thing where we're actually starting to tell you, hey, in your next response, ask a question. Or in your next response, use the word because or something. And that actually really gets people going more and more.

    現在,我們正在嘗試一種新方法,那就是我們開始告訴大家,嘿,在你們的下一個回覆中,提出一個問題。或者在你的下一個回覆中,使用「因為」之類的字眼。而這其實真的能越來越激勵人們採取行動。

  • So I'm very happy with all these improvements. And I really do think that putting it -- giving it to more users, what that'll do is it'll basically get more users to be promoters of Duolingo because we see that people that engage with video call post online and say things like, my God, I was skeptical that I could learn Duolingo, but I've just been using Duolingo and using video call and somehow, out of the blue, I am now able to have a conversation. So we're very happy with that.

    我對所有這些改進都非常滿意。我真的認為,把它推廣給更多用戶,基本上就能讓更多用戶成為多鄰國的推廣者,因為我們看到那些使用視訊通話的人會在網路上發文說,天哪,我之前還懷疑自己能不能學會多鄰國,但我一直在用多鄰國和視訊通話,不知怎麼的,突然之間,我就能和別人聊天了。我們對此非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Boone, Citizens JMP.

    Andrew Boone,Citizens JMP。

  • Andrew Boone - Analyst

    Andrew Boone - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back to the free-user experience and improving it. And really the question is, how does that evolve into a monetization strategy over time, right? So it sounds like one of the lessons was that you guys essentially over-monetized your user base.

    我想回歸免費用戶體驗並加以改進。真正的問題是,隨著時間的推移,這如何演變成一種獲利策略,對吧?聽起來你們學到的教訓之一是,你們過度利用了使用者群體的商業價值。

  • So Luis, as we think about going through this transition, what happens on the other side in terms of the lesson that you guys now have as you guys come back and then start to monetize users later on?

    路易斯,當我們思考如何度過這個過渡期時,你們從中吸取了哪些經驗教訓,之後又如何開始透過使用者變現呢?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Andrew, this is an excellent question. Look, we got ourselves into an interesting situation where both Duolingo is under-monetized and over-monetized at the same time. It's under-monetized in that, look, only about 10% of our monthly active users pay us. We wholeheartedly believe we can do much better than that.

    安德魯,這是一個很好的問題。你看,我們現在陷入了一種有趣的境地,Duolingo 同時既盈利不足又盈利過剩。它的商業化程度很低,你看,我們每月活躍用戶中只有大約 10% 的人付費。我們堅信我們能做得更好。

  • If you look at comps, if you look at things like Spotify, for instance, like half their users are paying them, give or take. And a lot of these freemium businesses, we really think we can get much higher than 10%.

    如果你看看同類產品,例如像 Spotify 這樣的公司,你會發現他們大約有一半的用戶是付費用戶。我們認為,許多這類免費加值業務的轉換率都能遠高於 10%。

  • However, the way we were increasing monetization was we found that the quickest way to increase monetization was basically by adding friction. The more we added friction, the more people subscribe. And that's okay. But I think that we got it to a point where it really became at odds with DAU growth.

    然而,我們發現,提高獲利能力最快的方法就是增加摩擦。我們增加的阻力越多,訂閱的人就越多。這樣也沒關係。但我認為,我們已經把它推到了一個與每日活躍用戶成長真正背道而馳的地步。

  • There are other ways to get people to subscribe. For example, you can add more features. Or you can have features that are not exactly friction, but things like selling customizations for avatars and you know things like that that have worked really well for games and we are kind of half a game.

    還有其他方法可以吸引人們訂閱。例如,您可以新增更多功能。或者你可以加入一些並非嚴格意義上的摩擦功能,例如出售頭像客製化服務之類的,你知道,這些功能在遊戲中非常有效,而我們某種程度上也算是半個遊戲。

  • So what we're doing now is for the next year. We're using this year to also find ways to monetize that get more people to subscribe, that is true, but that may not be doing so by adding friction and we're really confident that we can do that. It's just slower because monetizing by adding friction -- if you told me next week I needed to make whatever, $50,000 more a day, it was actually quite easy to do. You just double the ad load or whatever it was.

    所以我們現在所做的一切都是為了接下來的一年。今年我們也在努力尋找能夠吸引更多人訂閱的獲利方式,這是事實,但這可能並非透過增加摩擦力來實現,我們對此非常有信心。只是速度慢一些,因為透過增加摩擦力來實現盈利——如果你告訴我下週我需要每天多賺 5 萬美元,這其實很容易做到。你只需將廣告載入量翻倍即可。

  • But these other ways of monetizing are just going to take a little longer to do. But we're very confident that we're going to have some because only 10% of our active users pay us to subscribe.

    但這些其他的獲利方式需要更長的時間才能實現。但我們非常有信心會有一些用戶付費訂閱,因為只有 10% 的活躍用戶付費訂閱。

  • Andrew Boone - Analyst

    Andrew Boone - Analyst

  • And then I wanted to ask about the chess closure. And this is really about utilizing multiple apps at the same time. So if I think about the 7 million users and I think about the core trend of core Duolingo through 2025, how do I think about multiple users using multiple apps?

    然後我想問一下西洋棋停擺的事。這實際上是指同時使用多個應用程式。所以,如果我考慮到700萬用戶,並考慮到Duolingo到2025年的核心發展趨勢,我該如何看待多個用戶使用多個應用程式的情況?

  • Do I just take the 53 million and I subtract 7 to be able to think about where you are? What's the right way to think about that?

    我只要用 5,300 萬減 7,就能知道你在哪裡了嗎?對此正確的思考方式是什麼?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Another great question. Yeah, so we said chess has gotten up to about 7 million daily active users in less than a year. We're very proud of that. It's an incredible growth.

    又是一個很好的問題。是的,我們說過,國際象棋在不到一年的時間裡,每日活躍用戶數已經達到了約 700 萬。我們為此感到非常自豪。這是一個驚人的成長。

  • Now, the majority of these users, whenever we put a new subject out on Duolingo, it is a lot easier to get to our own users rather than to get to users outside of Duolingo because we have a direct line of communication to our own users. So the majority of these users, we're not basically saying exact number, but the majority of those users are users that we're Duolingo users and now are using both languages and chess. That's basically what's the common thing that's happening.

    現在,對於大多數用戶來說,每當我們在 Duolingo 上發布新主題時,接觸我們自己的用戶比接觸 Duolingo 以外的用戶要容易得多,因為我們有與自己用戶直接溝通的管道。所以,這些用戶中的大多數(我們並不是說確切的數字),都是 Duolingo 用戶,現在他們既學習語言又下國際象棋。基本上,這就是目前普遍存在的情況。

  • So you know, the way to see it is not that languages have not been growing. In fact, languages are going at about the same pace as Duolingo because it's the largest course. It's just that we are getting some new users for chess, but a lot of them are just doubling up from languages and chess.

    所以,你應該明白,語言的發展並非停滯不前。事實上,語言學習的速度與 Duolingo 大致相同,因為它是規模最大的課程。只是我們確實迎來了一些新的國際象棋用戶,但其中許多用戶都是同時學習語言和國際象棋的。

  • And what we are seeing is that over time, more and more people are finding out that Duolingo has chess. And then chess is starting to attract its own user base. And I think that's what's going to happen over time. And that just takes a little bit of time to do that. But that's what's happening.

    我們看到的是,隨著時間的推移,越來越多的人發現多鄰國有國際象棋課程。然後,國際象棋也開始吸引自己的使用者群體。我認為隨著時間的推移,這種情況將會發生。而這需要花一點時間。但事實就是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alexander Sklar, Raymond James.

    Alexander Sklar,Raymond James。

  • Alexander Sklar - Analyst

    Alexander Sklar - Analyst

  • Luis or Gillian, I don't know who wants to take this one, but on the bookings outlook, just given some of the unknowns you spoke to with Bryan's question earlier on how video call tests were going to play out on Super, what is the bookings outlook factor in terms of conversion rate of Super relative to what you've experienced in the past?

    路易斯還是吉莉安,我不知道誰想回答這個問題,但就預訂前景而言,考慮到你之前和布萊恩討論過的一些未知因素,比如視訊通話測試在 Super 平台上的表現,Super 的預訂前景(就轉換率而言)與你過去的經驗相比如何?

  • And how much time or data, Luis, do you think you need to know if the decision is a successful one based on some of the historical testing?

    路易斯,你認為需要多少時間或數據,才能根據一些歷史測試結果來判斷這項決定是否成功?

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • So if you look at the bookings, the main thing to think about right now is, if you start from Q4 bookings growth of about 24% and then look over to the guide, we think about half of that is the user deceleration continuation that Luis talked about. And then the other half of that is us monetizing more carefully and thinking about taking away some friction for our users. So that's how we're thinking about positioning that.

    所以,如果你看一下預訂情況,現在最需要考慮的是,如果你從第四季度約 24% 的預訂增長開始,然後看看指南,我們認為其中大約一半是路易斯所說的用戶增長放緩的延續。另一方面,我們也需要更謹慎地進行獲利,並考慮如何減少用戶遇到的阻力。所以這就是我們考慮如何定位它的方式。

  • In terms of exactly how all the monetization is going to play out, as you know, we, we AB tests like crazy around here. And so there's a lot to be learned as Luis explained over the course of this year, what we're really trying to do with the guidance is give ourselves the room from a position of really good financial strength to go do that work because we think it gives us the opportunity to reach for the higher price.

    至於所有獲利模式的具體運作方式,正如你所知,我們在這裡瘋狂地進行 A/B 測試。因此,正如路易斯在今年解釋的那樣,有很多東西需要學習。我們真正想透過指導方針做的,是讓我們在擁有非常良好的財務實力的基礎上,給自己留出空間去做這項工作,因為我們認為這給了我們追求更高價格的機會。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. And in terms of how long, you know, it'll take until we know this is working, it's going to take a little while. I mean, we need to make a lot of product changes, et cetera, each of which take a while. And then we also need to see user reactions, et cetera. So it's going to take a little while.

    是的。至於需要多長時間才能知道它是否有效,還需要一段時間。我的意思是,我們需要對產品進行很多更改等等,每一項都需要一段時間。此外,我們還需要查看用戶反應等等。所以還需要一段時間。

  • As Gillian said, we're putting in something modest towards the end of the year to see that some things are working there.

    正如吉莉安所說,我們在年底前會進行一些適度的投入,看看有些措施是否奏效。

  • Alexander Sklar - Analyst

    Alexander Sklar - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. Anything factored in terms of pricing changes within the different packages in the outlook?

    好的。然後或許只需要一個簡單的後續問題。展望未來時,是否考慮了不同套餐價格變動方面的因素?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • I mean, what we're going to do this year is we're going to be experimenting pretty much every year, although probably more so, with prices quite a bit. That means higher prices, lower prices. We're always AB testing, so we're going to be doing that. But this is not something that we're really putting in -- we're putting in the results of all the combined experiments in the outlook.

    我的意思是,我們今年要做的是,我們幾乎每年都會進行一些試驗,雖然今年可能會更加頻繁,尤其是在價格方面。這意味著價格上漲,價格下跌。我們一直在進行A/B測試,所以我們會繼續進行這項測試。但這並不是我們真正要加入的內容——我們將所有實驗的綜合結果都納入了展望。

  • But I don't know if I can tell you for a fact that the price of Super will be higher because we have video call or not. I don't know the results of the AB tests.

    但我不能肯定地告訴你,因為有了視訊通話功能,Super 的價格是否會更高。我不知道AB測試的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wyatt Swanson, DA Davidson.

    懷亞特·斯旺森,地方檢察官戴維森。

  • Wyatt Swanson - Analyst

    Wyatt Swanson - Analyst

  • I've just got one thinking about the medium-term goal of reaching the 100 million DAUs. Does that assume marketing stays elevated and monetization stays on the back burner for the entire duration?

    我只是在考慮實現中期目標,即達到 1 億日活躍用戶數。這是否意味著在整個過程中,行銷始終保持高水平,而獲利始終被擱置?

  • I think you've kind of answered it, but I'm just sort of thinking through as you've sort of ramped monetization over the past year and you've started seeing DAUs start to de-sell. So how do you think about that balance over the medium term? Should we see monetization slowly start to ramp up in these alternate forms that you're kind of exploring?

    我覺得你已經回答了這個問題,但我只是在思考,過去一年你一直在加大盈利力度,並且開始看到日活躍用戶開始減少。那麼,您如何看待中期內的這種平衡?我們是否應該看到你正在探索的這些替代形式的獲利模式開始逐步加速發展?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. I mean, I can answer, and I can also let Gillian have at it. But in general, our marketing is still extremely efficient. I mean, it's really still a small fraction of our revenue that we spend in marketing. I assume that every year the total number of marketing dollars that we spend will continue going up. However, I'm hoping that past this year we are going to get some efficiencies.

    是的。我的意思是,我可以回答,也可以讓吉莉安來回答。但總的來說,我們的行銷仍然非常有效率。我的意思是,我們用於行銷的金額實際上只占我們收入的一小部分。我預計我們每年在行銷方面的總支出將會持續成長。但我希望今年以後我們能提高一些效率。

  • It's hard to say exactly what will happen past this year. It's not like we're guiding. I assume that we're going to get some efficiencies past this year.

    很難準確預測今年之後會發生什麼。我們並不是在指導。我估計今年以後我們會提高一些效率。

  • And then in terms of monetization, like Gillian was saying before, just almost any way you look at it, with 100 million daily active users, this is just a much larger business. I do believe, again, hard to put in numbers exactly to give you a model or anything for past 2026, but I do believe that you're going to see other things really start ramping up.

    至於獲利方面,就像吉莉安之前所說的那樣,無論從哪個角度來看,擁有 1 億日活躍用戶,這都是一個規模更大的企業。我確實相信,雖然很難用確切的數字來給你一個2026年以後的模型或任何預測,但我相信你會看到其他方面真正開始加速發展。

  • I'm very excited about direct ad sales. We're seeing just a good uptick on that. And I'm also very excited about in-app purchases, in particular with our avatars. There's a lot of love for our avatars and for our playful brand, and we think we can do quite a bit there.

    我對直接廣告銷售感到非常興奮。我們看到這方面出現了明顯的成長。我也對應用程式內購買感到非常興奮,特別是與我們的虛擬形象相關的購買。大家對我們的虛擬形象和我們輕鬆活潑的品牌形像都非常喜愛,我們認為我們可以在這方面大展拳腳。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, and as you think about the margins of the business, one of the reasons I'm so excited about where we're at is that we've shown that this business can have tremendous scale, even at the size we're at today. And we think we can be a lot bigger. And there's nothing that we can see in the business that says we can't scale it going forward.

    是的,當你考慮業務利潤率時,我之所以對我們目前的狀況感到如此興奮,其中一個原因是我們已經證明,即使在我們目前的規模下,這項業務也能擁有巨大的規模。我們認為我們還能做得更大。而且,從業務角度來看,沒有任何跡象顯示我們未來無法擴大規模。

  • We're making an investment right now and descaling some to make that happen. But really, we don't think we need to hire double the number of people, twice the amount of marketing. We think that this business can scale really beautifully.

    我們目前正在進行投資,並縮減部分規模以實現這一目標。但實際上,我們認為沒有必要雇用雙倍的人員,也沒有必要投入雙倍的行銷資源。我們認為這項業務可以發展得非常出色。

  • It's one of the nicest things about the business model that we have the opportunity to do what we're doing from a position of strength, profitability, We will continue to generate tremendous EBITDA and free cash flow even as we invest, and we see no reason why we couldn't scale up as we re-enter monetization in a bit more of a smarter way from here.

    這種商業模式最棒的地方之一就是我們有機會從優勢和盈利能力出發來做我們正在做的事情。即使在投資的同時,我們也會繼續產生巨大的 EBITDA 和自由現金流,而且我們認為,隨著我們以更明智的方式重新進入獲利階段,我們完全可以擴大規模。

  • Wyatt Swanson - Analyst

    Wyatt Swanson - Analyst

  • Got it. That's fair. Could you maybe answer as to what the ads business will look like going forward? You've talked about doubling the ad load as maybe causing additional friction and users potentially turning off. It almost made it sound like ads were almost coming off of the platform and it wasn't going to be as big of a monetization channel.

    知道了。這很合理。能否談談廣告業未來的發展趨勢?您曾提到,廣告數量翻倍可能會造成額外的摩擦,並可能導致用戶流失。這幾乎讓人覺得廣告即將從該平台上消失,它將不再是一個重要的獲利管道。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • We are --what we're unlikely to do is increase ad load. At the moment, you see an ad at the end of a lesson. That is unlikely to go up. Certainly not this year, because that really goes counter to everything that I'm saying.

    我們不太可能增加廣告投放量。目前,你會在課程結束時看到廣告。不太可能上漲。今年肯定不行,因為這完全違背了我所說的一切。

  • However, we are doing a lot better of a job at displaying better ads. I mean, historically, we just have not spent a lot of effort on ads historically. So for example, we use just these network ads that are kind of the lowest common denominator network ads.

    但是,我們在展示更優質的廣告方面做得更好了。我的意思是,從歷史上看,我們並沒有在廣告上投入太多精力。例如,我們只使用這些網路廣告,這些網路廣告是網路廣告中最低檔次的。

  • We are now doing direct deals. What that does is it does two things for our business. Number one, it significantly increases the quality of the ad. So rather than getting you know, ads for like, you know, games that you've never heard of. You're going to get ads from like Disney or something, significantly higher-quality ads. And then the amount of money we make per ad is significantly higher when we do that.

    我們現在進行的是直接交易。這樣做對我們的業務有兩方面的好處。第一,它顯著提高了廣告品質。所以,你看到的就不是那些你從未聽過的遊戲的廣告了。你會看到像迪士尼之類的廣告,品質要高得多。這樣一來,我們每個廣告的收入就會顯著提高。

  • So I think that's kind of how it's going to be. We're experimenting with some stuff that is really cool, but I don't know if we'll make it work. I'll tell you my dream has always been to be able to give you ads in the language that you're learning, and we are trying that.

    所以我覺得事情大概會是這樣。我們正在嘗試一些非常酷的東西,但我不知道我們是否能成功。我一直夢想著能夠用你正在學習的語言向你投放廣告,而我們正在努力實現這個夢想。

  • So if you're learning Spanish, part of the ad is going to be in Spanish. What I love about that is that the users want that. And so -- and that's also good in the end for the advertiser because the user is actually paying a lot of attention. So I'm hoping we'll be able to try that. I don't know which of these things will work, but in general I just think ad load will not be higher, but we'll make a lot more money per ad.

    所以,如果你正在學習西班牙語,那麼這則廣告的一部分將會是西班牙語的。我喜歡這一點,因為用戶也想要這樣。所以——最終這對廣告商來說也是好事,因為用戶實際上非常關注廣告。所以我希望我們能夠嘗試一下。我不知道這些方法中哪些會奏效,但總的來說,我認為廣告載入量不會增加,但每個廣告的收益會更高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nathan Feather, Morgan Stanley.

    內森費瑟,摩根士丹利。

  • Nathan Feather - Analyst

    Nathan Feather - Analyst

  • Two on my end. First, there's been a lot of concern in the market about the improvement in AI translation tools and the general rise of all-purpose chat bots. I guess what gives you conviction that the user deceleration we saw in 2025 was not due to those factors?

    我這邊有兩個。首先,市場上對人工智慧翻譯工具的改進和萬能聊天機器人的普遍興起感到非常擔憂。我想問,是什麼讓你確信我們在 2025 年看到的用戶成長放緩並非由這些因素造成的?

  • And then second, just of the changes you've made so far to improve the user experience, are you seeing anything in the data that gives you conviction that these changes are going to stabilize user growth through the year? And are you already seeing that? Or when might you expect to reach that stabilization point?

    其次,就您目前為改善用戶體驗所做的改變而言,您是否從數據中看到任何跡象表明這些改變將使用戶成長在今年趨於穩定?你已經看到了這一點嗎?或者,您預計何時能達到穩定點?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Okay. Thank you for the question. So AI translation isn't -- people talk about it, but it is not something that we are worried internally about. AI translation has been essentially perfect among the large languages for like more than 10 years. I mean between Spanish and English, it's essentially been perfect.

    好的。謝謝你的提問。所以人工智慧翻譯並不是——人們都在談論它,但這並不是我們內部擔心的事情。人工智慧翻譯在大語種領域已經基本達到完美程度超過10年了。我的意思是,西班牙語和英語之間的銜接基本上非常完美。

  • Our users use Duolingo for two main reasons: one, as a hobby, they actually want to learn. And those people, whether there's a transaction, it doesn't matter, it's a hobby for them. And then the other group of people is learning English. They want to learn English, and they actually want to learn English.

    我們的使用者使用 Duolingo 主要有兩個原因:一是作為一種嗜好,他們真的想學習。對這些人來說,有沒有交易並不重要,這只是他們的嗜好。另一組人則在學習英語。他們想學英語,而且是真心想學英語。

  • We know also that we ask users why they leave Duolingo. We have this churn user surveys. This does not come up. I mean, like I said, the main reason that people leave Duolingo because they got busy. We know what that means. It just means they are doing more social media, like that's basically what that means. So we're just not -- that's not something we're particularly concerned about.

    我們也知道我們會詢問用戶離開多鄰國的原因。我們有用戶流失調查。這個問題沒有出現。我的意思是,就像我說的,人們離開多鄰國的主要原因是他們變得很忙。我們知道這意味著什麼。這只是意味著他們更多地利用了社交媒體,基本上就是這個意思。所以,我們並不——這並不是我們特別擔心的事情。

  • In terms of data about -- are we seeing any data that is making us believe that user growth is accelerating, et cetera. So far, we have done a few things to make the app -- the free experience better. For example, we gave a feature that was in doing on Max call explain my answer. It's not free for everybody. So we've done stuff like that. And we are seeing quite a bit of uptick on the features, and we're seeing that users love it.

    就數據而言——我們是否看到任何數據讓我們相信用戶成長正在加速等等。到目前為止,我們已經做了一些事情來改進應用程式——提升免費體驗。例如,我們提供了一個功能,該功能正在 Max 呼叫中執行,請解釋我的答案。並非人人都能免費享受。所以我們做過類似的事情。我們看到這些功能的使用率大幅上升,而且使用者也很喜歡它們。

  • But we are -- we have not yet seen an acceleration in DAUs that we think is like, oh my god, we're done. Now to be fair, we did not expect this. I think this is why we're saying that you should expect seeing some modest results towards the end of the year.

    但是我們還沒有看到每日活躍用戶數出現加速成長,以至於我們認為「我的天哪,我們完蛋了」。公平地說,我們確實沒有預料到這種情況。我認為這就是為什麼我們說大家應該會在年底前看到一些初步成果的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan MacDonald, Needham.

    瑞安麥克唐納,尼德姆。

  • Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

    Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

  • Luis, I wanted to ask about sort of Duolingo Max to start. Fourth quarter, I think, was your sort of large cohort or lapping the first large cohort of Max subscribers. And I was curious what you were seeing from a retention and renewal perspective and how much that's guiding sort of the strategy to bring video call back into Super.

    路易,我想問關於多鄰國Max入門課程的事。我認為,第四季是你們的大型使用者群體,或者說是第一批大型 Max 用戶群的形成週期。我很好奇,從客戶留存和續約的角度來看,你們看到了什麼,以及這在多大程度上指導了將視訊通話重新引入 Super 的策略。

  • And then if we're going to -- when this sort of transition happens, Gillian, when should we start to see, I guess, the impact of subscribers moving from Max down to Super with the video call being the future. And what assumptions are you making for that in the guidance?

    那麼,如果這種轉變真的發生的話——吉莉安,我想,我們應該什麼時候開始看到,訂閱用戶從 Max 降級到 Super,而視訊通話成為未來趨勢的影響呢?您在指導意見中對此做了哪些假設?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. For -- in terms of Max, none of the Max numbers are making us do anything with video call. Max numbers are actually quite good. We're happy with the Max numbers. We are taking what I call an offensive move with Max.

    是的。就 Max 而言,沒有任何 Max 型號能讓我們進行任何視訊通話操作。最大數值其實相當不錯。我們對Max的數據很滿意。我們正在對馬克斯採取我稱之為進攻性的舉措。

  • I just believe that the cost of video call has gone down enough. It just kind of doesn't make sense for us to just have it in Max when we can offer it in much cheaper packages. We're not quite there where we can offer it for free, but at some point, we may be able to. And I want to offer it for free because I actually think that it is in our best interest to have the largest possible user base that we can figure out how to monetize in any way rather than just keeping this for a timing, a little bit of the user base.

    我認為視訊通話的成本已經降到足夠低的水平了。既然我們可以提供價格更低廉的套餐,那麼只把它放在 Max 版本裡就顯得不太合理了。我們目前還無法免費提供這項服務,但將來或許可以。我想免費提供這項服務,因為我認為,擁有盡可能多的用戶群體,然後想辦法以任何方式將其變現,才是符合我們最佳利益的做法,而不是僅僅將其保留一段時間,只服務於一小部分用戶。

  • So that's just our philosophy. So the entire decision for trying to put video call in Super comes more from we think that this is the right thing for our users rather than any numbers with Max. We're pretty happy with the numbers with Max actually.

    這就是我們的理念。因此,我們決定在 Super 中加入視訊通話功能,更多的是因為我們認為這對我們的用戶來說是正確的選擇,而不是因為 Max 的某些數據。我們對Max的數據相當滿意。

  • And then Gillian, I don't know if you wanted to answer that second part. You're -- we cannot hear you. You're muted, or I cannot hear you.

    吉莉安,我不知道你是否想回答第二個問題。你——我們聽不到你的聲音。你已靜音,或我聽不到你的聲音。

  • Well, I -- sorry, your question, I kind of forgot what your question was because I was like I asked for Gillian and I forgot it. What was your question I'll try to answer that.

    嗯,我——抱歉,關於你的問題,我有點忘了你的問題是什麼,因為我當時在找吉莉安,然後我就忘了。你的問題是什麼?我試著回答一下。

  • Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

    Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

  • Yeah. As you think about the guidance for fiscal '26, I guess what assumptions, if any, are you making sort of building in for when video call rolls out to Super for sort of, I guess, you could call it sort of ARPU trend changes of maybe downsells from Max down to Super from that.

    是的。在考慮 2026 財年的業績指引時,我想問您是否對視訊通話功能推廣到 Super 套餐後,用戶平均收入 (ARPU) 的變化趨勢(例如從 Max 套餐降級到 Super 套餐)做出了任何假設?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. What I'll tell you probably what -- I know what Gillian was said in here. Look, we ourselves don't really know exactly what is going to happen with this AB test, where we start giving video call to Super. We don't know that ourselves. But we're going to AB-tested.

    是的。我大概可以告訴你──我知道吉莉安在這裡說了什麼。你看,我們自己也不太清楚這次 AB 測試會發生什麼,也就是我們開始與 Super 進行視訊通話的時候。我們自己也不知道。但我們會進行A/B測試。

  • Everything -- we put in our guidance some bounds, what we think that will actually -- this is what we think in all, and there are some bounds will stay within those bounds. And we have different ways of staying within those balances.

    所有事情——我們在指導方針中設定了一些界限,我們認為實際上——這就是我們所有的想法,並且有一些界限,必須遵守這些界限。我們有不同的方式來維持這些平衡。

  • So for example, if we see that putting video call in Super really destroys our Max business or something, which is like really terrible, then we'll start doing something like metering, video call and Super, like you only get access to one per day versus a Max, something like that. Again, I'm talking about things in the future because -- and so I just don't know exactly what's going to happen, but we're going to stay within the balance of what we have in the guide.

    例如,如果我們發現將視訊通話功能添加到 Super 套餐中真的嚴重影響了 Max 套餐的業務,或者情況非常糟糕,那麼我們就會開始採取一些措施,例如對視訊通話和 Super 套餐進行計量,例如每天只能使用一次視訊通話,而 Max 套餐則可以使用更多次,諸如此類。我再次強調,我談論的是未來的事情,因為——所以我真的不知道將會發生什麼,但我們會保持在指南中所述的平衡範圍內。

  • I don't know, Gillian, if you are -- if we can hear you now or not. No, unfortunately.

    吉莉安,我不知道你是否——我們現在是否能聽到你的聲音。不,很遺憾。

  • Nathan Feather - Analyst

    Nathan Feather - Analyst

  • Maybe Luis, just a more quick one for you. You talked about sort of the math and thinking that, that's an opportunity to build and sort of have one of the best math tutoring apps in the world. As that gets developed, would you look at sort of new channels in terms of how to sort of distribute that?

    路易斯,或許為你準備了一個更簡單的版本。你談到了數學,並認為這是一個打造世界上最好的數學家教應用程式之一的機會。隨著這項技術的發展,您是否會考慮開闢新的管道來分發它?

  • Like I think in the past, Duolingo for schools as a way to sort of open up that population on the language side. Is that a potential viable channel as you think about areas where you could get this DAU growth from something like math?

    我認為過去多鄰國面向學校是一種打開語言學習大門的方式。當您考慮如何透過數學等領域獲得每日活躍用戶成長時,這是否是一個潛在可行的管道?

  • Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

    Ryan MacDonald - Analyst

  • Yeah. Math is an interesting subject. On the one side, they're really -- it's -- I don't know of another subject other than languages that has as much of a market. I mean math -- there's 1 billion people learning math, so that's awesome. Now they are different than languages in the sense that these 1 billion people generally don't want to learn math, whereas the language people actually want to do that. And these Duolingo people are mostly in schools. In fact, they're mostly in K-12 schools. That's where they are. So that is definitely where we're going to get to now.

    是的。數學是一門有趣的學科。一方面,它們確實——確實——除了語言之外,我不知道還有哪個學科的市場能像它一樣大。我是說數學——有10億人在學數學,這太棒了。現在,數學與語言有所不同,因為這10億人通常不想學習數學,而學習語言的人卻想學習數學。而且這些使用多鄰國的人大多都在學校裡。事實上,他們大多在中小學就讀。他們就在那裡。所以,這就是我們接下來要講的內容。

  • There's multiple ways to imagine how to do that. Our first step is to just make this product. We're almost there. I mean if you look at the internal versions of our math course, they are incredibly good. Once that happens, there's a big question about go-to-market.

    有很多種方法可以想像如何做到這一點。我們的第一步就是把這個產品做出來。我們快到了。我的意思是,如果你看看我們數學課程的內部版本,你會發現它們真的非常棒。一旦這種情況發生,就會出現一個關於如何進入市場的大問題。

  • At the moment, our hypothesis is that the easier way to get started. That may not be the ultimate thing we do, but the easier way to get started is to think of it as a supplemental thing for school. So rather than get deals with school districts and stuff like that.

    目前,我們的假設是,更容易入門的方法。這或許不是我們最終要做的事情,但更容易上手的方法是把它看作是學校教育的補充。所以與其和學區之類的機構達成協議,不如…

  • Think of it more as a competitor to Kumon. That is, we believe, the better way to get started because there's a very large number of people that do -- have some sort of help outside, et cetera. By the way, what we like about this, and this is not -- you're not going to see this this year. But what we like about this over the long term is that the propensity to pay not from the kids but from the parents or math is very high. So we'll probably be able to do something there.

    不妨把它看成是公文式教育的競爭對手。我們認為,這是更好的入門方式,因為有很多人確實——在外界得到某種幫助等等。順便說一句,我們喜歡這個,但你今年不會看到這個。但從長遠來看,我們喜歡這種做法的原因是,支付費用的傾向不是來自孩子,而是來自父母或數學。所以我們應該能在那裡做點什麼。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Can you hear me now, Luis?

    路易斯,你現在聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yes, Gillian's back. I'm glad. Otherwise they would have started asking questions about acronyms that I don't know and we're in trouble.

    是的,吉莉安回來了。我很高興。否則他們就會開始問一些我不知道的縮寫問題,那我們就麻煩了。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • Some nice people just snuck around my computer. We're better now. Thank you guys.

    有些好心人偷偷溜進了我的電腦。我們現在好多了。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Shweta Khajuria, Wolfe Research.

    Shweta Khajuria,Wolfe Research。

  • Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst

    Shweta Khajuria - Equity Analyst

  • I was going to ask Gillian very specific three questions while she was muted for Mike. Actually, I have two questions. One is on retention and the other is on AI.

    趁著吉莉安被麥克靜音的時候,我打算問她三個非常具體的問題。實際上,我有兩個問題。一個是關於用戶留存的,另一個是關於人工智慧的。

  • So on retention rates as we think about you investing in math and music and chess and perhaps there are some cross-platform benefits. How do we think about churn and/or retention rates over time as you invest in the product? My understanding is that it has remained largely stable. But is there a reason to think that it actually improves markedly and what that can do to your platform?

    所以,考慮到您投資數學、音樂和國際象棋,可能會有一些跨平台的好處,那麼就用戶留存率而言,情況可能會有所不同。隨著您對產品進行投資,我們應該如何看待用戶流失率和/或用戶留存率隨時間的變化?據我了解,情況基本上保持穩定。但是,是否有理由認為它實際上會顯著改善,以及這會對你的平台產生什麼影響?

  • And then the second is on AI. So you addressed this in terms of competition where you have a market lead versus anyone else in the market right now. But what AI could potentially do is accelerate the path to creating new competitors that don't even exist today. So could you talk to potential risk of a competitor emerging because AI is making it easier to create certain products?

    第二部分是關於人工智慧的。所以你從競爭的角度解決了這個問題,你現在比市場上的任何其他公司都擁有市場領先地位。但人工智慧可能帶來的後果是,加速催生出目前尚不存在的新競爭對手。那麼,您能否談談人工智慧使某些產品的開發變得更容易,這可能導致競爭對手出現的潛在風險?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah, sure. In terms of retention, I'll let Gillian say more stuff. But generally, our retention, especially for payers, is pretty stable. It's very healthy and very stable. There's some chance it may go up. I don't think we're modeling that. I'll let Gillian know because I don't actually know remodeling that or not.

    當然可以。至於客戶留存率方面,我還是讓吉莉安再多說一些。但總的來說,我們的客戶留存率,尤其是付費客戶的留存率,相當穩定。它非常健康,而且非常穩定。有可能會漲。我認為我們並沒有模擬這種情況。我會告訴吉莉安,因為我其實也不知道該不該改建那棟房子。

  • But there's some chance it may go up over time. It's because one thing we do know is that multi-subject users have higher retention. And the other thing that is true is that, over time, more and more users are learning multiple subjects just because we offer more subjects.

    但隨著時間的推移,它有可能上漲。這是因為我們知道,多學科用戶的留存率更高。另一個事實是,隨著時間的推移,越來越多的用戶正在學習多個科目,因為我們提供了更多科目。

  • So there's some chance that it may go up, but I don't think -- so far, this is -- you shouldn't really believe me on this because it has remained pretty flat.

    所以它有可能會上漲,但我認為——到目前為止——你不應該真的相信我的話,因為它一直保持穩定。

  • I don't know, Gillian, if you want to add to that, then I can go to the new competitors on AI.

    吉莉安,我不知道,如果你想補充什麼,那我可以去看看人工智慧領域的新競爭對手。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • I mean retention, it looks pretty flat over a fairly long period of time. And we look at it in aggregate, and we look at it via cohorts I think the perspective we have is that it can stay where it is.

    我的意思是,就保持率而言,在相當長的一段時間內,它看起來相當平穩。我們從整體來看,也從群體角度來看,我認為我們的觀點是,它可以維持現狀。

  • That said, I think you're pointing out something really, really important. All the work we're doing to make the product great, so that word of mouth and top of the funnel and all that stuff needs keeping the size of the pool bigger. That also helps current customers, too, right? They get those features, too. So I think it's a possibility, but we haven't modeled anything significant on the front on.

    話雖如此,我認為你指出了一個非常非常重要的問題。我們所做的一切都是為了打造優秀的產品,因此口碑傳播、潛在客戶轉換率等等都需要不斷擴大潛在客戶群。這對現有客戶也有好處,對吧?他們也能享受這些功能。所以我認為這是一種可能性,但我們還沒有對正面進行任何重要的建模。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. And in terms of your question about can a new competitor show up because AI allows the building off of something faster. So it is true that with AI, you can build stuff faster. And I assume that, that will be more true over time. that is an assumption that we have. The good news is that, that also applies to us. So we can also build stuff faster. So that is good.

    是的。至於你提出的「人工智慧能否讓新的競爭對手出現,因為人工智慧可以更快地在現有基礎上進行建構」這個問題。所以,人工智慧的確可以加快產品製造速度。而且我認為,隨著時間的推移,這種情況會更加成立。這是我們的一個假設。好消息是,這也適用於我們。所以我們也能更快地建造東西。那很好。

  • The other thing to say is there's a little bit of a misunderstanding, I think, in the market about how easy it is to recreate a very sophisticated app like Duolingo. The reality is that if I were to write down just the spec of Duolingo or just -- I'm not talking about recreating in a programming language like write it down in English. It would take me years. because there are 1 million corner cases of things that we do that we're really smart about how -- what we do for the user to get them to be more engaged or teach better, et cetera.

    另外,我認為市場上對複製像 Duolingo 這樣非常複雜的應用程式有多容易存在一些誤解。現實情況是,如果我要把 Duolingo 的規範寫下來,或者——我不是說要用程式語言重新創建,而是用英語寫下來。這需要好幾年時間。因為我們所做的事情有上百萬種特殊情況,而我們在這方面確實非常聰明——我們為用戶所做的一切,以讓他們更積極地參與或更好地進行教學等等。

  • So it's -- I'm not particularly worried about somebody just magically pressing a button on an app appearing that is just better than Duolingo. On top of that, it's pretty hard -- the reason Duolingo so far has not really gotten competition at a large scale, again, we have like 85% of the daily active users of language learning apps in the world, is because it's pretty hard to compete with our free product in the sense that we have really huge distribution.

    所以——我並不特別擔心有人會神奇地按下一個按鈕,就出現一個比多鄰國更好的應用程式。除此之外,這相當困難——多鄰國至今還沒有真正面臨大規模競爭的原因在於,我們擁有全球語言學習應用程式約 85% 的每日活躍用戶,因為我們的免費產品擁有非常龐大的用戶群體,很難與之競爭。

  • And a new entrant, when they come in, they need to figure out how to grow, what they usually do is they try performance marketing to try to grow fast, but because our free product is so good, they usually cannot make their performance marketing work if they are to have a free product. So what then they do is they put a paywall on it. And then that just really caps them.

    新進業者需要弄清楚如何發展,他們通常會嘗試效果行銷來快速成長,但因為我們的免費產品非常好,如果他們也想擁有免費產品,效果行銷通常就無法奏效。所以他們就採取的辦法是設定付費牆。這樣就徹底結束了。

  • So it's just been really hard for entrants. I mean we see -- look, the reality is that over the span of Duolingo, we have probably seen, I don't know, 400 apps come up and try to compete with us, and I'm making that number up, its hundreds, and we just don't see them grow again because we have a very large distribution.

    所以對參賽者來說真的很難。我的意思是,我們看到——你看,現實情況是,在 Duolingo 的發展歷程中,我們可能已經看到,我不知道,400 個應用程式出現並試圖與我們競爭,我這個數字是隨便說的,實際上有幾百個,但我們就是看不到它們再次發展壯大,因為我們的用戶群非常龐大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.

    艾瑞克‧謝裡丹,高盛集團。

  • Eric Sheridan - Analyst

    Eric Sheridan - Analyst

  • Maybe build huge what is question and asking it a little bit differently. When you think about the AI landscape, what is the scope by which you think you need to sort of be a leader in AI learning in the four walls of your application and your experience as opposed to possibly cooperating with LLM agents and being an application layer to their platform if more consumer behavior goes in that direction from an aggregation standpoint? I'd love to get your sort of philosophical view on that.

    或許可以建構一個宏大的「什麼是」的問題,然後換個方式提問。當你思考人工智慧領域時,你認為你需要多大的範圍才能在你的應用程式和經驗範圍內成為人工智慧學習的領導者,而不是與 LLM 代理合作,成為他們平台的應用層(如果從聚合的角度來看,更多的消費者行為朝著這個方向發展的話)?我很想聽聽你對此的哲學見解。

  • And maybe the second question would be you guys were probably one of the leading examples of a mobile-first company with Web 2.0. How should we think about the duration and the need to invest to reposition the company to be AI-native in its tech stack over the next couple of years?

    第二個問題可能是,你們可能是行動優先、採用 Web 2.0 技術的領先公司之一。在未來幾年內,我們該如何看待公司轉型為原生 AI 技術堆疊所需的時間和投資需求?

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. So good question about does it make sense for us to continue in our own app versus something like an LLM. I'll tell you what we do, just historically, there have been a number of new platforms that have happened since we launched Duolingo. For example, smart watches came out. Also smart speakers came out like Alexa.

    是的。所以,關於我們繼續開發自己的應用程式是否比開發類似LLM的專案更有意義,這個問題問得很好。我來告訴你我們是怎麼做的,從歷史角度來看,自從我們推出 Duolingo 以來,已經出現了許多新的平台。例如,智慧手錶問世了。智慧音箱也出現了,例如 Alexa。

  • In all cases, we had a lot of people asking us questions. And certainly, the companies that were building these things telling us, this is the next big thing everybody is going to be in there in the watch you should be in the watch.

    無論什麼情況,都有很多人向我們提問。當然,那些製造這些東西的公司告訴我們,這是下一個熱門產品,每個人都會戴上它,你也應該戴上它。

  • In the past, we made the mistake of early on making an app for the watch or whatever. And only to realize later that apps for watches are not really a thing other than exercise apps for watches. So the way we see it is, if it is the case that consumer behavior changes quite a bit so that nobody has their own app and then everybody is over there, we will definitely do something about it, obviously.

    過去,我們犯過一個錯誤,那就是過早地為手錶或其他設備開發應用程式。後來才意識到,除了運動型手錶應用之外,手錶應用其實並不多見。所以我們認為,如果消費者的行為發生很大變化,以至於沒有人擁有自己的應用程序,而是所有人都使用同一個應用程序,那麼我們肯定會採取一些措施,這是顯而易見的。

  • What I'll say though is that our app in particular, I mean there are many other app that, but you can think of our app a lot like a game. I mean it really matters that we are not text-based. It just turns out that people really, really like doing things like playing Candy Crush or doing Duolingo in go in part because of the animations, et cetera. So if you're just asking, are we going to be a thing in a chat bot, I just don't think you can get the engagement that we can get inside like a text-based chat up.

    不過我想說的是,我們的應用程序,我的意思是,還有很多其他的應用程序,但你可以把我們的應用程式想像成一款遊戲。我的意思是,我們不以文本為基礎這一點真的非常重要。事實證明,人們真的很喜歡玩 Candy Crush 或用 Doolingo 等遊戲,部分原因是動畫等等。所以如果你只是問,我們是否會在聊天機器人中出現,我認為你無法獲得像在基於文字的聊天中那樣的互動。

  • Now again, I just don't know what the future is going to look like. But this is -- at the moment, we feel pretty confident that the right investments are to continue making a beautiful experience that is very visual because that's just what keeps people engaged.

    現在,我真的不知道未來會是什麼樣子。但就目前而言,我們相當有信心,正確的投資方向是繼續打造賞心悅目的視覺體驗,因為這才是真正能吸引人們參與的。

  • Yeah. And in terms of AI native, I mean we've always -- ultimately, we are a technology company. We have been really trying to adopt AI and technology as fast as possible. In fact, we've probably gotten in trouble for adopting AI fast, for example, by writing stupid memos that I wrote one time. So that's -- and also, I think we're just -- you're going to see us always take the next step with things like AI.

    是的。至於人工智慧原生技術方面,我的意思是,我們一直——歸根究底,我們是一家科技公司。我們一直在努力盡快採用人工智慧和新技術。事實上,我們可能因為過快採用人工智慧而惹上麻煩,例如,我曾經寫過一些愚蠢的備忘錄。所以,而且,我認為我們——你會看到我們總是在人工智慧等領域不斷邁向新的台階。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Q&A section of the call. I would now like to turn the call back to the host for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我想把電話轉回給主持人,請他作總結發言。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Well, thank you, everyone. These were excellent questions. And I just want to say that we're very excited about 2026. It is probably not exactly what investors expected. But if you are thinking about Duolingo as a long-term company, which obviously I am because that's kind of what I want, this is really the right investment to do.

    謝謝大家。這些都是很好的問題。我只想說,我們對 2026 年充滿期待。這可能並非投資人所預期的。但如果你把 Duolingo 看作長期公司(顯然我就是這樣,因為這正是我想要的),那麼這確實是一項正確的投資。

  • The second thing that I'll say is that Gillian started her job 3.5 days ago, so it is incredible the amount of knowledge that she has about our finances, which already surpasses mind. So thank you, Gillian, for that. And thank you, everyone.

    第二點要說的是,吉莉安3.5天前才開始這份工作,但她對我們的財務狀況的了解程度已經令人難以置信,遠遠超出了我的想像。所以,吉莉安,謝謝你。謝謝大家。

  • Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

    Gillian Munson - Chief Financial Officer

  • I am so delighted to be here. Thank you, everyone.

    我很高興來到這裡。謝謝大家。

  • Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Luis Von Ahn - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Bye.

    再見。