Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Duke Energy Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. And at this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Bryan Buckler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加杜克能源第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁布萊恩·巴克勒。先生，請開始。

Great. Thank you, Derek. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; along with Steve Young, Executive Vice President, and CFO.

太好了！謝謝你，德里克。大家早安，歡迎參加杜克能源2019年第四季財報回顧及業務更新會議。今天主持電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長林恩古德，以及執行副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫楊。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Slide 2 presents our safe harbor statement. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in today's materials and on duke-energy.com. Please note the appendix for today's presentation includes supplemental information and additional disclosures.

今天的討論將涵蓋非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的使用和前瞻性資訊。投影片 2 展示了我們的安全港聲明。非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的對帳表可在今天的資料和 duke-energy.com 上找到。請注意，今天簡報的附錄包含補充資訊和額外揭露。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lynn.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給 Lynn。

Bryan, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced 2019 adjusted earnings per share of $5.06, representing 7% growth over last year and solidly within the 4% to 6% earnings guidance range from the 2017 base year. 2019 also marked our 93rd consecutive year paying a quarterly dividend to our shareholders.

Bryan，謝謝你！大家早安！今天，我們宣布2019年調整後每股收益為5.06美元，較去年增長7%，並穩固地處於2017年基準年4%至6%的盈利預期範圍內。 2019年也是我們連續第93年向股東發放季度股利。

We recognize that consistent growth in earnings and dividends are important to our investors, and we are delivering. I'm very proud of our employees' commitment and hard work throughout the year. We achieved these financial results while maintaining our focus on the customer. Our reliability statistics improved by 15% and our internal customer satisfaction metrics improved 25%, a clear indication that we are enhancing the customer experience.

我們深知持續成長的獲利和股息對投資者至關重要，而我們也正在努力實現這一目標。我為員工全年的奉獻和辛勤工作感到無比自豪。我們在取得這些財務表現的同時，始終堅持以客戶為中心。我們的可靠性統計數據提高了15%，內部客戶滿意度指標提高了25%，這清楚地表明我們正在提升客戶體驗。

The foundation of outstanding service territories and ample low-risk investment opportunities to benefit our customers gives us great confidence. And the strength of our business into 2020 and beyond. We have introduced a guidance range of $5.05 to $5.45, with a midpoint of $5.25, reflecting solid 5% growth into 2020. We have also expanded our EPS growth target of 4% to 6% through 2024, built on an expanded capital program.

卓越的服務區域和豐富的低風險投資機會造福客戶，這些因素賦予我們極大的信心，也讓我們對2020年及以後的業務發展充滿信心。我們已將指導區間設定為5.05美元至5.45美元，中位數為5.25美元，這反映了2020年5%的穩健成長。我們也將2024年的每股盈餘成長目標從4%上調至6%，這得益於資本計畫的擴展。

Slide 4 outlines the drivers and opportunities for expanding infrastructure in our jurisdictions. Our service territories are thriving. The Carolinas and Florida lead the East Coast and population growth, driving strong economies and energy infrastructure needs. GDP growth projections for those areas as well as Nashville, Tennessee also exceeds the national average. To meet the needs of our customers in these regions, we have a $56 billion capital plan over the next 5 years, 90% of which will be deployed in our regulated electric and gas LDC businesses and drive earnings based growth from transparent low-risk and upfront.

第四張投影片概述了我們轄區內基礎設施擴張的驅動力和機會。我們的服務區域正在蓬勃發展。卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州引領東海岸的人口成長，推動強勁的經濟和能源基礎設施需求。這些地區以及田納西州納許維爾的GDP成長預測也超過了全國平均。為了滿足這些地區客戶的需求，我們制定了未來5年560億美元的資本計劃，其中90%將用於我們受監管的電力和天然氣LDC業務，並透過透明的低風險和預付款推動獲利成長。

Compared to our previous plan, the new plan represents a 12% increase and a projected $6 billion increase in our earnings base by 2024. These capital investments represent an excellent foundation to expand our 4% to 6% growth rate through 2024. Steve will provide more detail on the 5-year capital plan in a minute.

與我們先前的計畫相比，新計畫代表著 12% 的成長，預計到 2024 年我們的獲利基礎將增加 60 億美元。這些資本投資為我們在 2024 年之前將成長率擴大到 4% 至 6% 奠定了良好的基礎。史蒂夫稍後將提供有關五年資本計劃的更多細節。

We are proud of the work we do to power the lives of our customers. We support the health and prosperity of the communities we serve, not only to investments in our infrastructure but also through our work in the economic development, community leadership and foundation given. We also recognize the importance of maintaining competitive electric and gas rates. And are pleased that our rates are well below the national average, driven by top quartile O&M performance and a diverse generation mix. The strong and growing jurisdictions we serve at Duke Energy set us apart, and we will continue investing in our grid and clear generation bringing our customers the affordable and reliable service they expect from us.

我們為客戶的生活提供動力而感到自豪。我們支持所服務社區的健康和繁榮，這不僅體現在對基礎設施的投資上，也體現在我們在經濟發展、社區領導和基礎建設方面的工作。我們也認識到保持有競爭力的電價和燃氣價格的重要性。我們欣慰的是，由於頂級的運維績效和多樣化的發電結構，我們的價格遠低於全國平均。杜克能源服務於強勁且不斷發展的轄區，這讓我們脫穎而出，我們將繼續投資於電網和清潔發電，為客戶提供他們期望的經濟實惠且可靠的服務。

Moving to Slide 5. Our focus remains unchanged and is grounded in our vision to lead the way to cleaner, smarter energy solutions that our customers value. We place our customers at the center of everything we do. And our vision guides our actions and our investments.

轉到第5張投影片。我們的重點始終不變，始終植根於我們的願景：引領客戶重視的更清潔、更智慧的能源解決方案。我們將客戶置於我們一切工作的中心。我們的願景指引著我們的行動和投資。

We believe a customer-focused strategy will also deliver superior returns to our investors over time. The strategy is rightfully underpinned by 2 foundational elements: first, excellence in operations, which we demanded ourselves and our communities require; and secondly, excellence in stakeholder engagement.

我們相信，以客戶為中心的策略也將長期為我們的投資者帶來卓越的回報。此策略理應由兩大基本要素支撐：首先，卓越的運營，這是我們自身以及我們社區所要求的；其次，卓越的利害關係人參與。

2019 marked another year of strong results in our operations and important progress in stakeholder engagement. I wanted to share a few examples of our important work with stakeholders in 2019. We reached an important settlement with the North Carolina Department of Environmental quality and key community groups on closure plans for our remaining coal ash sites in the state.

2019年，我們再次在營運方面取得了強勁成果，並在利害關係人參與方面取得了重要進展。我想分享一些我們2019年與利害關係人所進行的重要工作的例子。我們與北卡羅來納州環境品質部門和主要社區團體就該州剩餘煤灰場的關閉計劃達成了一項重要協議。

This milestone agreement clarifies the methodology and time frame to address all ash in the basins and enables us to move forward as we transition to cleaner generation. We believe it is a reasonable and constructive approach that protects communities and the environment, both saving our customers over $1 billion in cost. In addition, in North Carolina, we successfully advocated for storm securitization legislation, which became law in November and reached constructive outcomes in our Piedmont rate cases in both North and South Carolina.

這項具有里程碑意義的協議明確了處理盆地所有灰燼的方法和時間表，使我們能夠在向清潔發電轉型的過程中繼續前進。我們相信，這是一種合理且具建設性的方法，既能保護社區和環境，又能為我們的客戶節省超過10億美元的成本。此外，在北卡羅來納州，我們成功倡導了風暴證券化立法，該立法於11月正式生效，並在我們位於北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州的皮埃蒙特地區（Piedmont）的費率案件中取得了建設性成果。

We also announced our comprehensive plan to reduce carbon emissions, targeting at least a 50% reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Our updated goals are supported by our announced plans to extend the operating licenses for all of our nuclear units. These units, which will be vital to meeting our carbon goals, achieved a capacity factor above 90% for the 21st consecutive year. We understand the importance of accelerating the path to zero carbon and look forward to working with stakeholders in each of our states to turn these goals into reality.

我們也宣布了全面的碳減排計劃，目標是到2030年至少減排50%，到2050年實現淨零排放。我們最新的目標與已宣布的延長所有核電機組營運許可證的計劃相一致。這些機組對於實現我們的碳排放目標至關重要，它們已連續21年實現了90%以上的容量利用率。我們深知加快邁向零碳排放的重要性，並期待與各州的利害關係人合作，將這些目標變為現實。

As we turn to Slide 6, delivering superior returns to our investors drives us and is the commitment of our team at Duke Energy.

當我們翻到第 6 張投影片時，為我們的投資者提供優厚的回報是我們的動力，也是杜克能源團隊的承諾。

Increasingly, our investors are also looking at our results on environment, social responsibility and governance matters. We're very proud of our track record here and consistent with our vision are committed to lead.

我們的投資者也越來越關注我們在環境、社會責任和治理方面的表現。我們為這些領域的業績感到非常自豪，並致力於引領未來，這與我們的願景一致。

From establishing industry-leading carbon reduction goals to announcing more than 1,500 megawatts of new wind and solar projects in 2019, we're making significant progress. Last year alone, we further reduced carbon emissions an additional 8% from 2005 levels, bringing our total decrease to 39%.

從設立業界領先的碳減排目標，到宣布2019年新增超過1500兆瓦的風能和太陽能項目，我們取得了顯著進展。光是去年，我們的碳排放量就比2005年的水準進一步減少了8%，使總減量達到39%。

Additionally, our broad array of energy efficiency programs in the Carolinas have created significant savings for our customers, well ahead of national averages for these types of programs while further reducing our carbon footprint.

此外，我們在卡羅來納州開展的廣泛的能源效率計劃為我們的客戶節省了大量成本，遠遠超過此類計劃的全國平均水平，同時進一步減少了我們的碳足跡。

Duke Energy is also committed to social responsibility, sound governance, and transparent disclosures. We issued our first climate report analyzing the 2-degree scenario in 2018 and plan to issue an updated report this year. Our ESG ratings reflect our work over more than a decade on sustainability initiatives, and our ratings continue to increase. Many of our investors have an interest in ESG topics, and we understand the importance of achieving excellence in these areas as we move into the next decade. We will be hosting an ESG Investor Day in May. And I'm excited to update all of you on the impressive work we're doing with Duke Energy.

杜克能源也致力於履行社會責任、改善治理和透明揭露。我們於2018年發布了首份分析2攝氏度情境的氣候報告，並計畫今年發布更新版報告。我們的ESG評級反映了我們十多年來在永續發展措施方面的工作，而且我們的評級還在持續提升。許多投資人對ESG主題感興趣，我們深知在邁入下一個十年之際，在這些領域取得卓越成就至關重要。我們將於5月舉辦ESG投資者日活動。我很高興向大家介紹我們與杜克能源合作的出色工作。

Let me close on Slide 7. Looking beyond our 5-year plan as the strength of our business and our future investment opportunities. We see great potential in the 3 investment priorities we've shared with you over the last few years. Modernizing the energy grid, generating cleaner energy and expanding natural gas infrastructure. Duke Energy's T&D grid across our regulated footprint represents the largest system in the nation, with more than 300,000 line miles of infrastructure.

最後，讓我以第七張投影片作為結束。展望未來五年計劃，這是我們業務的優勢所在，也是我們未來的投資機會。過去幾年我們與大家分享的三大投資重點，我們認為潛力巨大：電網現代化、清潔能源生產和天然氣基礎建設。杜克能源的輸配電網路覆蓋我們監管的覆蓋區域，是美國最大的輸配電網路系統，擁有超過30萬英里的基礎設施線路。

In support of our long-term strategy, we will continue to advance modernization and improvement projects to enable renewables, protected in storms and security trucks and serve the rapidly growing populations in our service areas.

為了支持我們的長期策略，我們將繼續推動現代化和改進項目，以實現再生能源、在風暴和安全卡車中的保護，並為我們服務區域內快速增長的人口提供服務。

The transition to cleaner generation also provides a multi-decade investment opportunity. Our 2030 commitment to reduce carbon emissions by at least 50% includes offering our existing carbon-free resources, retiring certain less-efficient plants and investing in renewables and natural gas infrastructure.

向清潔能源發電轉型也帶來了數十年的投資機會。我們承諾2030年至少減少50%的碳排放，其中包括提供現有的零碳能源，淘汰部分能源效率較低的電廠，並投資再生能源和天然氣基礎設施。

As an example, the appetite for utility-scale solar in Florida continues to rise, and we expect to bring more than 1,750 megawatts online through 2030. In the Carolinas and the Midwest, significant investments will be needed as we transition these fleets away from coal-fired generation. Our LDC business will also continue to produce opportunities for investment in natural gas infrastructure.

例如，佛羅裡達州對公用事業規模太陽能的需求持續成長，我們預計到2030年將有超過1,750兆瓦的裝置容量投入營運。在卡羅來納州和中西部地區，隨著我們逐步將這些發電廠從燃煤發電模式轉型，將需要大量投資。我們的LDC業務也將持續創造天然氣基礎設施的投資機會。

We see tremendous value creation from our Piedmont and Midwest gas utilities, which are expected to grow net income at a 12% CAGR through 2024. Population and economic growth in the Southeast, coupled with the important role of natural gas in transforming our generation mix will drive incremental investment opportunities for years to come.

我們看到皮埃蒙特和中西部天然氣公用事業公司創造了巨大的價值，預計到 2024 年，這些公司的淨收入將以 12% 的複合年增長率成長。東南部的人口和經濟成長，加上天然氣在轉變我們的發電結構方面的重要作用，將在未來幾年推動增量投資機會。

The Atlantic Coast Pipeline also represents important infrastructure for our customers in the Carolinas. We have included Slide 17 in the appendix to provide an update on the permit status and financial considerations around the pipeline.

大西洋海岸輸油管也是我們卡羅來納州客戶的重要基礎設施。我們在附錄中附上了第17張投影片，以提供有關該管道許可狀態和財務考量的最新資訊。

We continue to work towards securing the required permits for the project as we await the Supreme Court's decision on the Appalachian Trail crossing. We also continue to advance discussions with customers on the project status, timeline, and costs and are working toward updated customer arena, balancing value to customers and a fair return for the project owners. Our expectation is that we will have a more comprehensive update on ACP midyear. Investing in the grid, generating cleaner energy and expanding natural gas infrastructure are critical to the customers and communities we serve and will create meaningful shareholder value for the next decade and beyond.

在等待最高法院就阿巴拉契亞山道穿越計畫做出裁決的同時，我們將繼續努力爭取計畫所需的許可。我們也將繼續與客戶就專案狀態、時間表和成本進行討論，並致力於更新客戶視角，平衡客戶價值和專案業主的公平回報。我們預計將於年中發布更全面的ACP更新資訊。投資電網、生產更清潔的能源以及擴大天然氣基礎設施對我們服務的客戶和社區至關重要，並將在未來十年及更長時間內創造有意義的股東價值。

As I look ahead, I'm more confident than ever that we will deliver strong long-term returns to our shareholders and provide industry-leading service to our customers. With that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.

展望未來，我比以往任何時候都更有信心，我們將為股東帶來強勁的長期回報，並為客戶提供業界領先的服務。接下來，我將把電話交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. 2019 was an outstanding year of execution for the company.

謝謝，Lynn，大家早安。 2019 年是公司執行力卓越的一年。

As shown on Slide 8, our full year reported and adjusted earnings per share of $5.06 was above the midpoint of our original and revised 2019 guidance range.

如投影片 8 所示，我們全年報告和調整後的每股收益為 5.06 美元，高於我們最初和修訂後的 2019 年指導範圍的中點。

This represents a 5% CAGR since our portfolio transition in 2017 and 7% earnings growth over 2018. During the third and fourth quarters, we recognized our exceptional year-to-date financial results and took the opportunity to reinvest in our business, deploying additional O&M dollars into customer service and funding charitable contributions to the Duke Energy Foundation.

這意味著自 2017 年投資組合轉型以來，複合年增長率為 5%，2018 年獲利成長率為 7%。在第三季度和第四季度，我們確認了年初至今出色的財務業績，並藉此機會對我們的業務進行再投資，將額外的 O&M 資金投入客戶服務並為杜克能源基金會提供慈善捐款。

This agility positions the company well to deliver on our financial targets in 2020 and 2021, just as we did in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Our strong results were driven by clear growth across each of our operating segments. Electric Utilities and Infrastructure growth was approximately $0.25 per share and was anchored by our Florida operations, which benefited from the first year of the multiyear rate plan and solar investments.

這種敏捷性使公司能夠像2017年、2018年和2019年一樣，在2020年和2021年實現財務目標。我們強勁的業績得益於各營運部門的顯著成長。電力公用事業和基礎設施部門的每股收益約為0.25美元，這主要得益於佛羅裡達州的業務，該部門受益於多年期電價計劃實施的第一年以及太陽能投資。

We also saw solid growth in our Carolinas operations with strong rider revenues from our best-in-class energy efficiency programs and rate cases. These favorable drivers for the segment were partially offset by regulatory lag, primarily in the Carolinas.

卡羅萊納州業務也實現了穩健成長，得益於我們一流的能源效率項目和費率案例，附加險收入強勁增長。這些利好因素部分抵消了該部門的積極驅動力，尤其是在卡羅萊納州，監管方面的滯後性尤其突出。

Shifting to Gas Utilities and Infrastructure. We saw higher results in both our LDC businesses in the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The gas LDCs continue to provide strong earnings, driven by customer additions, investments in integrity management and power generation infrastructure as well as a constructive outcome in the Piedmont's North Carolina rate case in the fourth quarter.

轉向天然氣公用事業和基礎設施。大西洋海岸管道兩家LDC業務的業績均有所提升。天然氣LDC業務持續保持強勁獲利，這得益於客戶成長、對完整性管理和發電基礎設施的投資，以及皮埃蒙特公司在北卡羅來納州的費率案在第四季度取得的積極成果。

Our commercial renewables business delivered approximately $200 million of income in 2019. Going forward, we expect this segment to continue delivering between $200 million and $250 million of net income per year over the 5-year plan.

我們的商業再生能源業務在 2019 年實現了約 2 億美元的收入。展望未來，我們預計該部門在五年計畫內將繼續每年實現 2 億至 2.5 億美元的淨收入。

Overall, Duke Energy delivered outstanding results in 2019, marking another year of achieving our financial commitments. The Duke portfolio, in place since late 2016, has consistently performed well and is positioned for 2020 and beyond.

總體而言，杜克能源在2019年取得了卓越的業績，標誌著我們再次兌現了財務承諾。杜克能源投資組合自2016年底成立以來一直表現良好，並已為2020年及以後的發展做好了準備。

Turning to Slide 9. As we look to 2020, we've announced our adjusted earnings per share guidance range of $5.05 to $5.45 with a $5.25 midpoint. This represents 5% growth over the midpoint of our original 2019 earnings per share guidance range of $5. We put together a strong financial plan for 2020, and our core utilities will continue to drive upwards earnings trajectory. For Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, growth will come from our critical investment programs.

翻到第9張投影片。展望2020年，我們宣布了調整後的每股盈餘預期區間，為5.05美元至5.45美元，中間值為5.25美元。這比我們2019年每股收益預期區間5美元的中間值成長了5%。我們制定了強有力的2020年財務計劃，我們的核心公用事業業務將繼續推動獲利成長。對於電力公用事業和基礎設施業務，成長將來自我們關鍵的投資項目。

In Florida, similar to 2019, we expect very strong earnings contributions as we move into the second year of our multiyear rate plan. Results in Florida will be further supported by rapid deployment of solar generation. In the Carolinas, we will see full year contributions from the 2019 South Carolina rate cases and expect new retail rates to become effective in North Carolina in the third quarter of 2020.

在佛羅裡達州，與2019年類似，隨著我們進入多年期電價計畫的第二年，我們預計獲利貢獻將非常強勁。佛羅裡達州太陽能發電的快速部署將進一步提升業績。在北卡羅來納州，我們將看到2019年南卡羅來納州電價方案帶來的全年貢獻，並預計北卡羅來納州的新零售電價將於2020年第三季生效。

Finally, in addition to the steady income growth that comes from our Midwest T&D infrastructure investments, we expect new rates for Duke Energy Indiana by midyear. We forecast long-term annual load growth and a 0.5% range and expect 2020 to be even stronger given recent encouraging signs with our industrial customers and the benefit of leap year.

最後，除了中西部輸配電基礎設施投資帶來的穩定收入成長外，我們預計杜克能源印第安納分公司將在年中公佈新的電價。我們預測長期年負荷成長率將在0.5%左右，鑑於近期工業客戶表現良好以及閏年帶來的利好，我們預計2020年的成長動能將更加強勁。

The most significant 2020 growth driver for Gas Utilities and Infrastructure will be the full year earnings impact of the Piedmont, North Carolina rate case, given new rates were effective in November 2019.

鑑於新費率於 2019 年 11 月生效，2020 年天然氣公用事業和基礎設施最重要的成長動力將是北卡羅來納州皮埃蒙特費率案例對全年獲利的影響。

Our LDC businesses continue to experience increasing customer growth, driving year-over-year margin improvement. We're also heavily investing in integrity management programs across our footprint, recovering these important investments through annual rider mechanisms.

我們的LDC業務持續成長客戶，推動利潤率逐年提升。我們也在全業務範圍內大力投資誠信管理項目，並透過年度附加條款機制收回這些重要的投資。

In our Gas Midstream business, we expect higher AFUDC on Atlantic Coast Pipeline, with full construction activities beginning in the second half of the year. However, 2020's overall ACP results will be relatively flat, given 2019 benefited from a tax true-up.

在我們的天然氣中游業務中，我們預計大西洋海岸管道的AFUDC將有所提高，全面建設活動將於下半年開始。然而，鑑於2019年受益於稅務調整，2020年的整體ACP績效將相對持平。

In Commercial Renewables, we expect a slight uptick in results this year as wind production returns to normal and as our 60-megawatt Palmer solar project will now go into commercial operation in 2020.

在商業再生能源方面，隨著風力發電恢復正常，以及我們的 60 兆瓦帕爾默太陽能專案將於 2020 年投入商業運營，我們預計今年的業績將略有上升。

Otherwise, this segment's results will remain relatively consistent over the 5-year plan.

否則，該部門的業績在五年計畫內將保持相對穩定。

Slide 10 provides a view of our primary EPS growth drivers for 2021, many of which were similar to the 2020 drivers. Florida continues to be a major contributor of 2021 net income bolstered by the third year of the multiyear rate plan and our 700-megawatt solar investment program. We expect solid contributions from other core operations in the Carolinas and Midwest as we invest in needed infrastructure. Our LDC businesses will experience rapid growth as we deploy capital to serve new customers and increase the integrity of the existing system.

幻燈片 10 展示了我們 2021 年每股收益成長的主要驅動力，其中許多與 2020 年的驅動力相似。由於多年期電價計畫的第三年以及我們 700 兆瓦太陽能投資計畫的推動，佛羅裡達州繼續成為 2021 年淨收入的主要貢獻者。隨著我們投資必要的基礎設施，我們預計卡羅萊納州和中西部地區的其他核心業務將帶來穩健的貢獻。隨著我們部署資本服務新客戶並增強現有系統的完整性，我們的 LDC 業務將實現快速成長。

And as I discussed during our November call, higher Atlantic Coast Pipeline earnings in 2021 will fully offset the dilution from the $2.5 billion equity forward that will be settled later this year.

正如我在 11 月電話會議上所討論的那樣，2021 年大西洋海岸管道收益的增加將完全抵消今年稍後結算的 25 億美元股權稀釋。

Lastly, I'd like to point you to our appendix slides, which highlights Duke Energy's top quartile leadership and O&M cost per customer.

最後，我想向您指出我們的附錄投影片，其中重點介紹了杜克能源的最高四分位領導地位和每位客戶的營運和維護成本。

But we are still early in our journey.

但我們的旅程才剛開始。

Our industry-leading innovation centers hitting its stride by scaling digital capabilities, such as mobile tools for field workers, artificial intelligence usage, drones, and automation to transform our operations and back-office processes. We will continue to leverage these capabilities to drive efficiencies and productivity across the enterprise.

我們業界領先的創新中心正在大力拓展數位化能力，例如為現場工作人員提供的行動工具、人工智慧應用、無人機和自動化，從而革新我們的營運和後台流程。我們將繼續利用這些能力，提升整個企業的效率和生產力。

Turning to Slide 11. I'd like to reiterate some of the points Lynn shared earlier regarding the rapidly expanding infrastructure needs of our operations and communities. We have responded by increasing our 5-year capital plan by over $6 billion to benefit our customers and deliver value for shareholders. The vitality of our communities translates into long-term growth opportunities as we make significant investments and position our cities and communities to remain competitive for jobs and business development. In turn, our communities rely more than ever on our ability to attract low-cost capital to make these investments.

翻到第11張幻燈片。我想重申一下Lynn之前提到的關於我們營運和社區快速成長的基礎設施需求的一些觀點。為了因應這項需求，我們將五年資本計畫增加了60多億美元，以惠及客戶並為股東創造價值。隨著我們進行大量投資，並使我們的城市和社區在就業和商業發展方面保持競爭力，我們社區的活力轉化為長期成長機會。反過來，我們的社區比以往任何時候都更依賴我們吸引低成本資本進行這些投資的能力。

Our unique investor growth proposition, coupled with a long history of constructive regulatory outcomes, provide the right balance to lead Duke Energy and its communities into the next chapter of our energy future.

我們獨特的投資者成長主張，加上長期以來建設性的監管成果，提供了適當的平衡，引領杜克能源及其社區進入能源未來的新篇章。

The Florida Capital Plan is underscored by solar investments and grid improvements, including targeted undergrounding. Storm protection plan legislation supports the deployment and recovery of these grid investments, driving our increased capital. We expect to file our SPP plans in the first half of this year with the program taking effect in late 2021 or early '22.

佛羅裡達州資本計畫的重點是太陽能投資和電網改進，包括有針對性的地下化計畫。風暴防護計畫立法支持這些電網投資的部署和回收，從而推動我們增加資本。我們預計今年上半年提交太陽能發電廠 (SPP) 計劃，該計劃將於 2021 年底或 2022 年初生效。

In the Carolinas, we see significant needs for T&D capacity and improvement projects to support the expansion of renewables as well as rapid population and economic growth.

在卡羅來納州，我們看到對輸配電容量和改進項目的巨大需求，以支持再生能源的擴張以及人口和經濟的快速成長。

Turning to our Gas LDCs. Strong economic growth drives tremendous need for infrastructure investments, including our integrity management programs.

談到我們的天然氣欠發達國家。強勁的經濟成長推動了對基礎設施投資的巨大需求，包括我們的誠信管理專案。

Further, as we transition to energy -- cleaner energy sources, we have dual-fuel capital projects at existing coal plants, which moves us closer to achieving our carbon reduction targets. This highlights the complementary nature of our Electric and Gas businesses.

此外，隨著我們向清潔能源轉型，我們在現有燃煤電廠實施了雙燃料資本項目，這使我們更接近實現碳減排目標。這凸顯了我們電力和天然氣業務的互補性。

Turning to Slide 12. Our ability to execute on our robust capital program is underpinned by our strengthened balance sheet and solid credit ratings, which are stable on both S&P and Moody's. We continue to expect to issue $500 million of equity per year through 2022 via the DRIP and ATM programs. And as we discussed last quarter, once ACP comes online, we will have the balance sheet flexibility to moderate or eliminate annual equity issues. As a reminder, we plan to settle the $2.5 billion equity forward related to last year's issuance in December 2020, resulting in minimal dilution this year.

翻到第12張投影片。我們執行穩健資本計劃的能力得益於我們強勁的資產負債表和穩健的信用評級（標準普爾和穆迪的評級均保持穩定）。我們預計到2022年，每年仍將透過直接投資計畫（DRIP）和自動增發計畫（ATM）發行5億美元的股票。正如我們上個季度討論的那樣，一旦ACP上線，我們將擁有資產負債表的靈活性，可以減少或取消年度股票發行。需要提醒的是，我們計劃在2020年12月結算與去年發行相關的25億美元股票遠期收益，從而將今年的稀釋降至最低。

Shifting to Slide 13. We understand the value of the dividend to our investors, over 40% of whom are retail shareholders. 2020 will mark the 94th consecutive year paying a quarterly cash dividend, and we remain a top-tier dividend yield investment.

轉到投影片 13。我們了解股利對投資人的價值，其中 40% 以上是散戶股東。 2020 年將是連續第 94 年支付季度現金股息，我們仍然是頂級股息收益率投資。

We are committed to continue growing the dividend in the future and finished 2019 with a dividend payout ratio of 74%.

我們致力於在未來繼續增加股息，2019 年的股息支付率為 74%。

As we have said previously, our objective is to reduce that payout ratio over time, more in line with peers, particularly given our robust capital plan. Over the near term, we will set our dividend growth to better position ourselves within a payout ratio range of 65% to 75%, trending to the lower end of this range over the 5-year period.

正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是逐步降低派息率，使其與同行保持一致，尤其是在我們擁有穩健的資本計劃的情況下。短期內，我們將設定股息成長目標，使股息率處於65%至75%的區間內，並在五年內趨向於該區間的低端。

Before we open it up for questions, let me turn to Slide 14. Our attractive dividend yield coupled with earnings growth from investments in our regulated utilities provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.

在我們開始提問之前，請容許我翻到第 14 張投影片。我們誘人的股息殖利率加上對受監管公用事業的投資收益成長，為股東提供了極具吸引力的風險調整回報。

We are positioned to deliver results for both customers and shareholders and are confident in the plan we have for 2020 and beyond.

我們致力於為客戶和股東創造業績，並對我們 2020 年及以後的計劃充滿信心。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

好了，我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

And we'll first take Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

我們首先邀請的是古根漢合夥公司的 Shahriar Pourreza。

So a big jump in CapEx and the rate base is obviously up $6 billion in 23. Can we talk a bit more on sort of the higher numbers and maybe even focusing on 23, especially in Florida, where I think you're expecting to file the formal GRCs later this year? I mean i.e. base assumptions in the upcoming GRC versus the plan you kind of presented today? And could we see some further upside if the outcome is a little bit more constructive, especially if you've got support from sort of your healthy macro backdrop that you highlighted?

因此，資本支出大幅成長，利率基數在23年顯然增加了60億美元。我們能否就更高的數字再多談一談，甚至可以重點談談23年的情況，尤其是在佛羅裡達州，我認為您預計將在今年晚些時候在那裡提交正式的GRC？我的意思是，即將提交的GRC中的基本假設與您今天提出的計劃相比如何？如果結果更具建設性，尤其是在您強調的健康宏觀經濟背景的支持下，我們是否可以看到進一步的上漲空間？

Sure. Thank you for the question. We did layout in the slide deck, the underlying investments around the $6 billion, $1.5 billion of it is in Florida, $4 billion in Carolinas and then we see incremental investment in our Gas LDCs of $1 billion. But I think to your point, the recent legislation in Florida represents a longer-term opportunity, and we see up to $5 billion over a decade or so of investment in that infrastructure.

當然。謝謝你的提問。我們在幻燈片裡確實展示了大約60億美元的基礎投資，其中15億美元在佛羅裡達州，40億美元在卡羅來納州，然後我們看到對天然氣欠發達國家（LDC）的增量投資為10億美元。但我認為，正如你所說，佛羅裡達州最近的立法代表著一個長期機遇，我們預計未來十年左右，該基礎設施的投資將高達50億美元。

And as we move through the process of finalizing our existing multiyear plan and resetting that into the future, I do believe there will be ongoing potential for investment in Florida in a way that adds a lot of value to customers and investors.

隨著我們逐步完成現有的多年期計畫並將其重新調整到未來，我相信佛羅裡達州將具有持續的投資潛力，可以為客戶和投資者創造大量價值。

Got it. And then just one, lastly on North Carolina coal ash. It's obviously kind of the fluid situation still. Is there any read-throughs to Dominion's recent notice of decision, which essentially extended the recovery period for their ash spend, but with no return on that spend perspectively?

明白了。最後再提一個，關於北卡羅來納州的煤灰。顯然，情況仍然不確定。 Dominion最近的決定通知，有人解讀過嗎？該通知實際上延長了煤灰支出的回收期，但從長遠來看，這些支出沒有回報。

I mean assuming this is kind of applicable to you, can you kind of break this outcome down relative to your $8.5 billion in total CCR costs if we sort of apply that same method -- methodology as we did with Dominion?

我的意思是，假設這適用於你，如果我們應用同樣的方法——就像我們對 Dominion 所做的那樣——你能否將這個結果與你的 85 億美元 CCR 總成本進行對比？

Sure. Shahriar, the first point I would make on this, which I think is really important is the Dominion order did provide recovery of the costs. And that is a significant outcome, which we, of course, believe makes sense given its decommissioning of coal plants that have provided great value to our customers over generations. We have read the notice of decision, but I also think it's important to recognize that we have not yet seen the order. So we don't understand all of the elements, we don't understand the rationale. I think it's fair to say that this order will be specific to the facts and circumstances in this case. And although we'll learn from it, I'm not prepared to say how it will impact us directly.

當然。 Shahriar，關於此事，我想說的第一點，也是我認為非常重要的一點，是Dominion的命令確實提供了成本補償。這是一個重要的結果，當然，我們認為這很合理，因為它關閉了那些幾代以來為我們的客戶提供巨大價值的燃煤電廠。我們已經閱讀了裁決通知，但我認為重要的是要認識到我們還沒有看到這項命令。所以我們並不了解所有要素，也不了解其基本原理。我認為，這項命令將針對本案的事實和情況。雖然我們會從中吸取教訓，但我還不準備透露它將如何直接影響我們。

But I -- we will be presenting our case in the DEC case in March and DEP in May and hopefully have the opportunity to learn more from the order as we prepare to enter into those proceedings.

但是我——我們將在 3 月份的 DEC 案件中和 5 月份的 DEP 案件中陳述我們的案情，並希望在我們準備進入這些訴訟程序時有機會從該命令中了解更多信息。

Got it. But just a follow-up. But just given sort of your CapEx outlook and sort of how healthy it is. Is it fair to assume that you can absorb whatever outcome that does come about in that case, assuming there, for instance, in a return on that spend?

明白了。不過我只是想跟進一下。但考慮到你們的資本支出前景以及其健康狀況，是否可以假設你們能夠承擔這種情況下產生的任何後果，比如說，假設這筆支出能帶來回報？

Yes. Shahriar, when we put together a 5-year plan, we do so, assuming a range of outcomes. And so that would include amortization, that would include various assumptions around cost recovery. But I also want to emphasize that we believe a lack of return over an extended amortization period is detrimental to our balance sheet and the customers over the long term, and therefore, we believe these costs ought to earn a return.

是的。 Shahriar，當我們制定五年計畫時，我們會假設一系列結果。這其中就包括攤銷，也包括各種成本回收的假設。但我還想強調的是，我們認為長期攤銷期間缺乏回報會對我們的資產負債表和客戶造成長期損害，因此，我們認為這些成本應該獲得回報。

There is a cost of financing associated with anything that -- of this nature, and our cost of financing should be considered as part of cost of service.

任何此類事情都涉及融資成本，而我們的融資成本應被視為服務成本的一部分。

So we will be making those points as part of the case.

因此我們將把這些觀點當作案件的一部分。

Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Perhaps just to follow-up on the Carolinas here, if you don't mind.

如果你不介意的話，也許只是為了跟進卡羅萊納州的情況。

First, possibilities here on just rate case settlement and just prospects on the timeline, if you will? And then related to that, obviously, you've laid out a pretty impressive updated outlook. How do you think about this tying into some of the updates moving in-flight in parallel at the state level on sort of the grid mod side of the equation, I think, in the DEQ side?

首先，請問您能否談談關於費率案件和解的可能性以及時間表上的前景？然後，與此相關的是，您顯然已經提出了令人印象深刻的最新展望。您認為這與州一級並行推進的一些更新（例如電網模型方面，也就是DEQ方面）有何關聯？

On the first question, Julien, on settlement. We always explore opportunities for settlement in every case. I think when you think about the number of issues in any rate case, if we can get to resolution of any of them in advance, we'll certainly look to do that. We did that in the Carolina cases, you may recall the last time around, at least as it pertains to ROE and cap structure. So I can't forecast with certainty how that will occur or if it will occur, but we'll certainly explore those opportunities. On your second question around how it relates to each of the jurisdictions and capital. I'll take a shot at and maybe some clarity of the question would be helpful. Recently, if we hear...

關於第一個問題，朱利安，關於和解。我們總是會在每個案件中探索和解的機會。我認為，考慮到任何利率案件中的問題數量，如果我們能夠提前解決其中任何一個問題，我們肯定會尋求和解。您可能還記得，我們在上次卡羅萊納州的案件中就這樣做過，至少在涉及股本回報率和資本結構方面。因此，我無法準確預測和解將如何發生或是否會發生，但我們肯定會探索這些機會。關於您的第二個問題，關於它與每個司法管轄區和資本的關係。我會嘗試解答，也許對這個問題進行一些澄清會有所幫助。最近，如果我們聽到…

With Carolinas, specifically.

具體來說，就是卡羅萊納州。

Sure. So we believe we've made the case soundly in all of our jurisdictions about the importance of the energy delivery system to be the backbone of the transition of renewable generation, storm hardening and the resiliency. We've had hurricane exposure in all of our southeastern jurisdictions over the last 4 years. And then cyber and physical security threats are something that are not unique to Duke Energy, but certainly important for our industry. So we feel like we've laid the groundwork for that. I think you know, Julien, we'll be involved in stakeholder meetings throughout 2020 in the Carolinas to further discussions around the clean energy plan. And as part of that, it will be not only advancement of how to achieve further carbon reduction but also for their methods to modernize regulation, performance-based rate-making and other things that would fit quite nicely with our strategy around clean generation and good investment.

當然。我們相信，我們已經在所有轄區充分論證了能源輸送系統作為再生能源轉型、風暴防護和彈性建設支柱的重要性。過去四年，我們東南部的所有轄區都遭受颶風襲擊。此外，網路和實體安全威脅並非杜克能源獨有，但對我們這個產業無疑至關重要。因此，我們覺得我們已經為此奠定了基礎。朱利安，我想你知道，我們將在2020年全年參加在卡羅萊納州舉行的利益相關者會議，進一步討論清潔能源計劃。作為其中的一部分，這不僅將推動如何進一步減少碳排放，還將推動他們實現監管現代化、基於績效的電價制定以及其他與我們清潔發電和良好投資策略高度契合的舉措。

So as the stakeholder process has progressed in 2020 and into 2021, we'll look for opportunities to continue to pursue regulatory modernization that sits with these investments.

因此，隨著利害關係人進程在 2020 年和 2021 年取得進展，我們將尋找機會繼續推行與這些投資相符的監管現代化。

Got it. And then separately, if I could just follow-up on the higher level of rate base, how do you think about the financing? Just -- I know you guys did the equity last year. You haven't projected FFO to debt metric here, but I just want to try to tie that all back together. When you think about the updated stable projection.

明白了。另外，如果我可以跟進一下更高利率基數的問題，您如何看待融資？我知道你們去年做了股權融資。您還沒有預測FFO與債務的比率，但我只是想嘗試把這些聯繫起來。當您考慮更新後的穩定預測。

Sure. As I alluded to, we priced out the $2.5 billion of equity to settle that in late 2020. That plus the DRIP/ATM equity through 2022 are the equity needs that we see will finance the rest of our needs and refundings through a combination of holding company and operating company debt issuances.

當然。正如我所提到的，我們已將25億美元的股權定價到2020年底，以解決這個問題。加上到2022年DRIP/ATM股權，我們認為這些股權需求將透過控股公司和營運公司發行債券來滿足我們剩餘的需求和再融資。

And we feel comfortable about that financing plan and maintaining the credit ratings.

我們對該融資計劃和維持信用評級感到滿意。

Got it. Maybe just if I can rephrase that slightly, and you tell me if I'm not saying it right. The equity forward effectively pays for the incremental CapEx such that your metrics are largely unchanged. And then I know that there was previously a conversation around ACP and providing some buffer. Do you want to just reconcile the ACP conversation versus the CapEx plan perspective? It sounds like you've effectively used incremental equity now to pay for the plan this year. But I just want to also make sure we've addressed the prior commentary about ACP outcomes?

明白了。如果我能稍微改一下，如果我說得不對，請告訴我。股權遠期有效地支付了增量資本支出，這樣你的指標基本上保持不變。我知道之前討論過ACP並提供一些緩衝。你想把ACP的討論和資本支出計畫的視角結合嗎？聽起來你現在已經有效地使用了增量股權來支付今年的計劃費用。但我還想確保我們已經討論了之前關於ACP結果的評論？

Right. Let me give some clarity here. The incremental equity dealt with Atlantic Coast Pipeline and delays associated with that and the cash flows, that, therefore, delayed when we determine the project needed to go in 1 phase in 2022 as opposed to having cash flows coming in, in 2021. And that equity dealt with a number of ranges of outcomes with ACP, and it still does.

是的。讓我在這裡澄清一下。增量股權與大西洋海岸輸油管專案以及與之相關的延誤和現金流有關，因此，當我們確定專案需要在2022年分階段實施，而不是在2021年才有現金流到位時，這部分股權就被推遲了。這部分股權與ACP的一系列結果有關，現在仍然如此。

The incremental CapEx spend that we got in the plan, we can deal with under that same amount of equity.

我們可以在相同數量的股權下處理計劃中獲得的增量資本支出。

We've got other tools that we've utilized. We issued $1 billion of equity content securities in 2019 at very attractive rates. We have continued to find operational efficiencies through O&M that we described earlier that helps the balance sheet as well. We executed on the John Hancock transaction, and could envision dropping other assets into mechanisms like that, that provide some liquidity. So the equity -- the $2.5 billion equity has not been used up for the incremental CapEx. We can deal with it with the equity I described.

我們也運用了其他工具。 2019年，我們以極具吸引力的利率發行了10億美元的股權證券。我們透過先前提到的營運和維護（O&M）持續提升營運效率，這也有助於改善資產負債表。我們執行了約翰·漢考克（John Hancock）的交易，並計劃將其他資產投入類似的機制，以提供一定的流動性。因此，25億美元的股權尚未用於增量資本支出。我們可以用我之前提到的股權來處理。

We will next go to Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們來談談 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

So a couple of questions. First, just a technical one. The 2019, it looks like a lot of the deep versus your segment guidance came in the Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment. Can you just explain what drove that?

所以有幾個問題。首先，一個技術問題。 2019年，看起來很多深度業績預測都來自天然氣公用事業和基礎設施部門。您能解釋一下是什麼推動了這項成長嗎？

So we had a couple of things here, Steve, of course, strong results from capital deployment, rate case outcomes, et cetera, Atlantic Coast Pipeline is in there. And we also had a half adjustments on recognition of the way allowance for funds have been recorded on the pipeline that drove the LDC businesses as well. Steve, would you add to that?

史蒂夫，我們當然有幾件事，例如資本部署、利率案例結果等等方面的強勁業績，大西洋海岸管道也在其中。此外，我們也對管線資金撥備的確認方式進行了半數調整，這也推動了LDC的業務發展。史蒂夫，您能補充一下嗎？

Yes, I would say, looking at 2019, we had strong growth across all of our segments. You look at the Electric Utilities, we had a full year of the 2018 North Carolina rate cases. We had a partial year of the 2019 South Carolina rate cases. We saw Midwest grid continue to roll through.

是的，我想說，回顧2019年，我們所有部門都實現了強勁成長。以電力公用事業部門為例，我們全年處理了2018年北卡羅來納州的電價案件。我們只處理了2019年南卡羅來納州部分地區的電價案件。我們看到中西部電網持續穩定發展。

We had the Ohio rate case that added a few cents. Our energy efficiency rider, particularly in the Carolinas, added several cents. So we saw good, solid growth on the electric side. So I would add that.

我們之前考慮過俄亥俄州的稅率，這導致稅率上漲了幾美分。我們的能源效率附加條款，尤其是在卡羅來納州，也上漲了幾美分。所以，我們看到了電動車方面良好且穩健的成長。所以我想補充一下這一點。

Okay. I'm just looking at Slide 21, where it just shows actual versus original assumptions? And it looks like Gas Utilities beat by a lot. So that's why I'm curious...

好的。我剛剛看了第21張投影片，上面顯示了實際數據與初始假設的比較。看起來瓦斯公用事業的業績好了很多。所以我很好奇…

In terms of the beat versus that (inaudible)

就節拍而言（聽不清楚）

Yes. So that was -- okay. We can follow-up on that. It's just...

是的。所以……好的。我們可以跟進一下。只是…

We saw growth in electric a bit and gas a bit more that pushed us above our target.

我們看到電力和天然氣業務都有小幅成長，這使我們超越了目標。

Steve, the 3 things in Gas LDC, ACP and the tax adjustment around allowance for funds. Those are the 3 drivers.

史蒂夫，Gas LDC、ACP 和圍繞資金補貼的稅收調整這三個面向。這三個方面就是驅動因素。

Right.

正確的。

Okay. And then just on ACP, at a high level, in the unfortunate event that it somehow doesn't get done. How would you characterize the -- how to think about your 4% to 6%?

好的。那麼，從高層次上講，如果不幸未能完成，您如何看待4%到6%的份額？

Steve, I would characterize the 5-year period as having great flexibility. And by that, I mean the robust capital plan that we have outlined for the utilities, positions the utilities very solidly within a 4% to 6% guidance range.

史蒂夫，我認為五年期具有很大的彈性。我的意思是，我們為公用事業制定的穩健資本計劃，將公用事業的獲利能力穩固地控制在4%到6%的指導範圍內。

And that gives us confidence that those utilities are going to continue to grow and grow well. And we have demonstrated the growth in those utilities over several years. And hopefully, that gives you confidence as well in our ability to deliver.

這讓我們相信這些公用事業業務將繼續成長，並且發展良好。我們已經證明了這些公用事業業務在過去幾年的成長。希望這也能讓你們對我們的交付能力充滿信心。

I think on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, we will work our way through it. As we spoke about a moment ago, we've taken the step of strengthening the balance sheet to absorb a range of options. We need flexibility with our capital plans to make adjustments, to put in a plan B if one is required to build gas infrastructure to meet the needs that ACP would have met. We also have the opportunity to expand or accelerate good investments in a number of our jurisdictions. And then the ongoing productivity and flexibility around O&M represents another lever that we have in addressing returns over a 5-year period.

我認為，在大西洋海岸輸油管項目上，我們會努力推進。正如我們剛才提到的，我們已經採取措施加強資產負債表，以吸收各種選擇。我們需要靈活地調整資本計劃，以便在需要建造天然氣基礎設施以滿足大西洋海岸輸油管項目原本可以滿足的需求時，制定備用計劃。我們也有機會在多個管轄區擴大或加速優質投資。此外，營運和維護方面持續的生產力和靈活性是我們實現五年回報的另一個槓桿。

We have demonstrated the ability to achieve reductions in flexibility in O&M across our diverse businesses, and we see further opportunities over the 5-year period. So we're committed to driving low-risk regulated growth in earnings and dividend. And we believe that we have the capability of doing that. But we will work our way through ACP, and I think 2020 is an important year to hit some of these milestones, and we'll update all along the way.

我們已經證明，我們有能力在多元化業務中降低營運和維護（O&M）的靈活性，並且在未來五年內，我們也看到了更多機會。因此，我們致力於推動獲利和股息的低風險、受監管成長。我們相信我們有能力做到這一點。但我們將努力完成ACP項目，我認為2020年是實現這些里程碑的重要一年，我們將持續更新進度。

Steve, I just want to go -- to go back to your question, just to also let you know for 2019, we had a beat of our original target by $0.06, but I'd also want to highlight that we accelerated $0.04 of O&M from future years for foundation contributions. We also accelerated several cents for vedge management from future years in this particular calendar year. So we had a lot of optimization around 2019 as well. Absent those things, the beat would have been larger. So I just want to make sure we clear that.

史蒂夫，回到你的問題，我想說的是，2019 年我們的實際支出超出了最初的目標 0.06 美元，但我還想強調的是，我們為未來幾年的基金會運營維護 (O&M) 支出增加了 0.04 美元。今年，我們也為未來幾年的蔬菜管理 (vedge management) 支出增加了幾美分。所以，我們在 2019 年也做了很多優化。如果沒有這些因素，實際支出超出的幅度會更大。所以我想確保我們明確這一點。

No, that's great. And then one other just quick thing, that the $4 billion of incremental spending in the Carolinas, is it -- it sounds like it's mainly T&D spending. Just, is there any coal ash related spend of new plan in there? Or is that kind of past that period?

不，太好了。然後還有個小問題，卡羅來納州40億美元的增量支出，聽起來主要都是輸配電支出。請問，這裡面有沒有涉及煤灰相關的新支出計畫？還是說這已經是過去的時期了？

So there's no incremental coal ash spend in that number at all. It's a -- there's a comparable level to what we've had in the past.

所以這個數字根本沒有增加煤灰的支出。這與我們過去的水平相當。

We'll next go to Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們來談談摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧伯德。

Congrats on a constructive update. I wanted to talk about Florida a little bit. Solar economics continue to trend favorably, and you've highlighted Florida as one area of incremental growth.

恭喜您更新了建設性的資訊。我想稍微談談佛羅裡達州。太陽能經濟持續向好，您也強調佛羅裡達州是成長最快的地區之一。

Over time, I guess, longer-term, if we continue to see solar costs drop, is there a fairly significant opportunity to make even bigger changes to your generation mix in the state? Or are there other reasons why that that wouldn't be the case of solar cost drop further?

我想，從長遠來看，如果我們看到太陽能成本持續下降，那麼我們是否有機會對本州的發電結構做出更大的調整？還是有其他原因導致太陽能成本無法進一步下降？

Stephen, I believe there are increasing opportunities, and we will watch those economics all along the way. And as I think back over even the last 2 to 3 years. Every time we set a forward forecast, it has increased and improved. And I think that will be the case into the 2020s.

史蒂芬，我相信機會越來越多，我們會一直關注這些經濟狀況。回顧過去兩三年，每次我們做出預測，結果都會有所提升和改善。我認為這種情況在2020年代也會持續下去。

Understood. The number that you've laid out is essentially sort of -- I know you haven't specifically laid out the amount of solar you sort of put Florida together, but we'll be seeing a resource plan that you all layout in, I believe, in April in Florida, which could show further progress in terms of moving towards renewables. Is that fair to say?

明白了。您列出的數字基本上是…我知道您還沒有具體列出佛羅裡達州的太陽能總量，但我相信，我們將在四月份在佛羅裡達州看到您們制定的資源計劃，這可能會顯示出在可再生能源方面取得的進一步進展。這樣說公平嗎？

Yes. And at this point, we're forecasting 1,750 megawatts of solar, Stephen. And we'll continue to update that as we go. But I think to your point, as you think out over a decade, the bias is that number is going to go up.

是的。 Stephen，目前我們預測太陽能發電量為1750兆瓦。我們會持續更新。但我認為，正如您所說，考慮到未來十年，這個數字預計還會上升。

That's helpful. And then just lastly, going to -- start to hit on the financing needs, just wanted to kind of think through scenarios. In the unfortunate outcome, if it ends up that the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project is not able to move forward either because of the Supreme Court ruling or the biological opinion, how would that -- sort of that single impact sort of your overall equity needs? And in other words, is the sort of financing plan fairly flexible and you wouldn't envision incremental equity in that scenario? Or how do you think about that that sort of outcome?

這很有幫助。最後，我想談談融資需求，我只是想大致設想一下各種情況。如果不幸發生這種情況，例如大西洋海岸輸油管計畫因為最高法院的裁決或生物法規而無法推進，這會如何影響你們的整體股權需求？換句話說，這種融資計畫是否比較靈活，在這種情況下，你們不會考慮增加股權？或者，你們如何看待這種情況？

Steve, I believe we've taken care of the range of outcomes on ACP with a $2.5 billion. The one thing in the financing plan that we would evaluate is we have the DRIP and ATM on through, I believe, 2022, with an idea that we potentially could moderate in '23 and '24 if ACP is on. We will evaluate whether or not the DRIP and ATM should be a part of the financing plan in all events for '23 and '24 depending on outcome. But I think that's the only thing I would point to is something that will have ongoing evaluation. But we feel like that we've put in front of you with the equity that we've issued and maintaining the DRIP through 2022 with this additional capital is a solid plan that will meet our credit metrics, our earnings guidance and absorb outcomes around ACP.

史蒂夫，我相信我們已經用25億美元解決了ACP的各種問題。融資計畫中，我們會評估的一件事是，DRIP和ATM會持續到2022年，如果ACP繼續運行，我們可能會在2023年和2024年進行調整。我們將根據結果評估DRIP和ATM是否應該成為2023年和2024年所有融資計畫的一部分。但我認為這是唯一需要持續評估的事情。我們認為，透過發行股票，以及用這筆額外資金維持DRIP到2022年，這是一個可靠的計劃，它將滿足我們的信用指標、盈利預期，並吸收ACP的收益。

We will next go to Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse.

接下來我們來談談瑞士信貸的麥可溫斯坦 (Michael Weinstein)。

Can we talk a little bit about commercial renewables? And what the growth plan is for that going forward? You've had some projects that pushed out to 2020. So you have a $240 million assumption for that year. And I think it's up $0.06. So that would imply about $0.19 for 2020. Is that sort of the new level going forward or is that going to grow beyond that? And how many megawatts is required to keep that up anyway?

我們可以談談商業再生能源嗎？未來的成長計畫是什麼？你們有一些項目推遲到2020年。所以你們對2020年的預期是2.4億美元。我認為現在上漲了0.06美元。這意味著2020年大約是0.19美元。這是未來的新境界嗎？還是會繼續成長？為了維持這個水平，需要多少兆瓦的裝置容量？

Sure, Mike. We're looking at having commercial renewables contribute between $200 million and $250 million a year during the plan. It will depend on the timing of projects. But that's keeping pretty level -- pretty flat with the level that they got to in 2019. So we're not showing a lot of growth there. We did shift the Palmer solar project to 2020. That was another optimization move as we got late in the year.

當然，麥克。我們計劃在計畫期間，讓商業再生能源每年貢獻2億到2.5億美元。這取決於專案實施的時間。但這個數字基本上保持不變——與2019年的水平基本持平。所以我們在這方面沒有顯示出很大的成長。我們確實將帕爾默太陽能計畫推遲到了2020年。這是由於我們今年年底的計劃，而採取的另一個優化措施。

That will help the 2020 earnings. But they'll be between $200 million and $250 million a year through our plan. We've got all of 2020 lined up and locked up, and we've got 60% of the net income over the 5-year period in hand as well. So a rough number that you think about is roughly landing 300 megawatts a year of projects to keep that going. And between the markets that we're in and the crispy programs in North Carolina and so forth, we think that's very attainable.

這將有助於2020年的獲利。根據我們的計劃，每年的利潤將在2億到2.5億美元之間。我們已經鎖定了2020年全年的獲利，也掌握了5年淨收入的60%。所以，一個粗略的數字是，每年大約需要300兆瓦的專案來維持這個目標。考慮到我們所處的市場以及北卡羅來納州等地的強勁項目，我們認為這個目標完全可以實現。

Got it. And ACP, you've said that you don't expect any dilution from the prior forward. As a result of earnings, and particularly after the pipeline goes in service. And I'm just wondering is that as a result of higher rates on the pipeline going forward or is it -- are you banking on higher volumes through compression? Is there a lag period between the in-service period and the lack of dilution? Or is there -- like maybe a divet period in between there?

明白了。 ACP，您說過，您預計未來不會有任何稀釋。這是由於盈利，尤其是在管道投入使用後。我只是想知道，這是由於未來管道費率的提高，還是——您指望透過壓縮來增加產量？投入使用期和不稀釋期之間是否有延遲期？或者兩者之間是否有一個剝離期？

So Mike, we have given you some financial considerations on Slide 17 on allowance for funds in '20 and then full year in-service in '22 and beyond, what you can expect in terms of the contribution of ACP. The dilution that we will experience in 2021 will be absorbed by incremental allowance for funds in that year while the project is still under construction. And so I would think about putting that equity into the plan in 2021. And then the combination of the utility results we've shared with you today as well as what we're sharing on ACP is the earnings platform with financing that you can expect over the 5-year period.

麥克，我們已經在第17張投影片上介紹了一些財務方面的考慮，包括2020年的資金撥備，以及2022年全年及以後的營運情況，以及ACP的貢獻。 2021年我們將經歷的股權稀釋將被當年專案仍在興建中的增量資金撥備所吸收。因此，我會考慮在2021年將這些股權納入計畫。然後，結合我們今天與您分享的公用事業業績以及我們關於ACP的分享，您將在5年期間預期的融資獲利平台。

One last question. Just to confirm, how much is -- or how much financing have you already committed to the project at this point? I think it's around $2 billion, including -- excluding AFUDC at this point?

最後一個問題。請確認一下，目前您已經為該專案投入了多少資金？我認為大約是20億美元，包括（目前不包括）AFUDC的資金。

Yes, the gross project costs are about $2 billion on our books now. We've got about $800 million or $900 million of construction financing against that.

是的，目前我們帳面上的項目總成本約為20億美元。我們為此準備了大約8億到9億美元的建設融資。

And would you expect that to pick up, I guess, once the Supreme Court rules or is that maybe before that at some point?

我想，您是否認為，一旦最高法院作出裁決，這種情況就會好轉，或者可能在那之前的某個時候？

I'm sorry, Mike, I couldn't hear that question.

抱歉，麥克，我聽不見這個問題。

All right. Are we at a point with additional spending start to roll insignificantly? Is it going to be after the Supreme Court rules?

好的。我們是不是到了額外支出開始變得微不足道的階段了？是在最高法院裁決之後嗎？

So the gating item on construction is the biological opinion and the incidental take statement. So the restoration of the environmental impact study. So if you look again at Slide 17, we're forecasting that reissuance of the permit in the middle part of 2020. So you should think about construction as being in the latter -- restart of construction mean the latter half of 2020.

因此，施工的門檻是生物學意見和附帶捕獲聲明。因此，需要恢復環境影響研究。如果您再看第17張投影片，我們預計許可證將在2020年中期重新簽發。所以，您應該將施工視為後者——重新開始施工意味著2020年下半年。

We'll next take Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

接下來我們請到豐業銀行的 Andrew Weisel。

So first question, a very impressive CapEx update. For '19 through '23, it looks like your spending is up roughly 15% or so. But when I look at the earnings-based outlook, the increase is more modest at around 5% depending on the year. Will you please help me reconcile those? And what are some of the offsets?

第一個問題，資本支出更新非常令人印象深刻。從2019年到2023年，你們的支出似乎增加了約15%。但從基於獲利的展望來看，增幅比較溫和，依年份不同，增幅約5%。您能幫我核對一下這些嗎？有哪些抵消措施？

Yes, I think our rate base growth is at the 6% level over the period of time there. And CapEx may vary in terms of how it's loaded through the type of CapEx, but I'd have to look in more detail on that and the IR team can help you with that.

是的，我認為我們的利率基準成長率在這段時間內保持在6%的水平。資本支出可能會因資本支出類型的不同而有所不同，但我需要更詳細地研究這個問題，而投資者關係團隊可以為您提供幫助。

Even if you look at the capital in the appendix that will give you a sense of the growth in each of the utilities. So on average, every utility is growing within the 4% to 6% range. Some are higher than that. And Gas, of course, is higher than that. But the combination, the average of all of the utilities together are at the 6% CAGR.

即使你查看附錄中的資本，也能大致了解每家公用事業的成長。平均而言，每家公用事業的成長率都在4%到6%之間。有些甚至更高。當然，天然氣產業的成長率也更高。但綜合來看，所有公用事業的平均複合年增長率為6%。

Right. I understand that. I'm not talking about year-over-year growth. I'm talking about your new guidance versus the prior guidance. I should have been more clear.

是的，我明白。我不是說同比增長。我是在談論新的業績指引與先前的指引之間的對比。我應該說得更清楚一些。

So we have laid out on Slide 11 kind of how this comes in. And I think we could spend some time with the IR team to give you some specifics on what it looks like in '20, '21, '22. I think the combination of that chart in the detail in the appendix, we'd be happy to walk you through.

我們在投影片 11 大致介紹了一下具體情況。我想我們可以跟 IR 團隊聊聊，具體介紹一下 2020、2021、2022 年的情況。結合這張圖表和附錄中的詳細信息，我們很樂意為大家詳細介紹。

Okay. I'll follow up off-line. My next question is, can you talk a bit about the industrial demand. Obviously, it's -- you're not the only one seeing this, but it was pretty soft last year, fourth quarter, in particular. And then, I think, you mentioned the uplift in 2020 from the leap day, but maybe if you could just talk about adjusted expectations over the next few quarters?

好的。我線下再跟進。我的下一個問題是，您能談談工業需求嗎？顯然，您不是唯一看到這種情況的人，但去年，尤其是第四季度，工業需求相當疲軟。然後，我想您提到了2020年閏日帶來的成長，但能否談談未來幾季的調整預期？

Sure. 2019 was a rough year for the economy as a whole and that translated to our industry and lower kilowatt-hour sales. We saw that in many of our peers as well. The good news for us is that we see tremendous customer growth. We saw the best customer growth in 2019 we've seen in many years, particularly in the Carolinas and Florida.

當然。 2019年對整個經濟來說都是艱難的一年，這導致我們行業和千瓦時銷售量下降。我們在許多同行身上也看到了這種情況。對我們來說，好消息是客戶數量大幅增加。 2019年的客戶成長速度是多年來最快的，尤其是在卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州。

As we look forward, we'll see some of that customer growth translate into some favorable growth, we believe. We also think that there will be some rebound as we look at some of our industrial customers. A few have had some singular issues with outages, supply chain issues and so forth. So we think they may get some traction as we move forward in 2020 to help rebound off a bad year. Our overall growth expectation, load growth expectation is 0.5%. And there'll be years like 2018 that are very strong years followed by some years that are a little weaker, but we think that's a reasonable place to be over the 5-year period. We do expect to see some growth over '19 and 2020 as '19 was kind of a low year. And again, we're seeing some favorable indicators from some of our industrials in our service territories.

展望未來，我們相信，部分客戶成長將轉化為良好的成長。我們也認為，從一些工業客戶來看，情況將會反彈。有些客戶遇到了一些特殊問題，例如停電、供應鏈問題等等。因此，我們認為，隨著2020年的推進，這些客戶可能會獲得一些支持，幫助公司擺脫糟糕的一年。我們的整體成長預期，負載成長預期為0.5%。像2018年這樣的年份，業績會非常強勁，之後也會有一些年份表現略弱，但我們認為，在五年期間，這是一個合理的成長區間。我們確實預計2019年和2020年會有所成長，因為2019年是業績低迷的一年。此外，我們服務區域內的一些工業客戶也出現了一些利好指標。

Andrew, the only thing I would add to that is all of our jurisdictions continue to perform with GDPs above national average.

安德魯，我唯一想補充的是，我們所有轄區的 GDP 都持續高於全國平均。

The weakness we saw in industrial was largely driven by some of the uncertainties around tariffs that surfaced in 2019. But as Steve said, we are beginning to see some signs of rebound in the specific customer circumstances and hope for a stronger 2020.

我們看到工業領域的疲軟主要是由於 2019 年出現的一些圍繞關稅的不確定性。但正如史蒂夫所說，我們開始看到特定客戶狀況出現一些反彈跡象，並希望 2020 年會更加強勁。

Okay, great. That's helpful. Then on the dividend, Steve, did I hear you say that you're targeting the low end of the 65% to 75% range in the outer years? Why would that be and why not the midpoint?

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。那麼關於股息，史蒂夫，我是不是聽到你說，你的目標是在未來幾年達到65%到75%區間的低端？為什麼是這個範圍，而不是中間值？

Well, that's just where it tracks based on the assumptions we put there. We'll certainly monitor that as we go forward. It's nice to have the flexibility to look at the dividend as it gets to the lower end of the range, but we have that flexibility. So we're not committing to anything on that, but it's nice to be tracking in that direction.

嗯，這只是基於我們設定的假設而得出的預測。我們肯定會持續關注後續情況。能夠靈活地調整股息，尤其是在股息達到區間下限時，這很好，但我們確實有這種彈性。因此，我們不會就此做出任何承諾，但能夠朝著這個方向發展，這很好。

And I think, Andrew, as we more solidly position the dividend within the payout range, our longer-term goal is to grow the dividend at the same pace of earnings. And this moderation we're experiencing here in the short-term will give us the flexibility to do that over the longer term.

安德魯，我認為，隨著我們更加穩固地將股息控制在派息範圍內，我們的長期目標是使股息與利潤同步增長。短期內我們經歷的這種放緩將賦予我們在長期內實現這一目標的靈活性。

Got it. Very good. And then if I could squeeze one last one in here. The earned ROEs in the Carolinas, you're guiding to a modestly lower return in 2020 versus the past few years. Is that primarily related to last year's reduction in the allowed ROE? Are there other factors there? I know it's tough to discuss in the middle of rate cases, but any kind of directional commentary?

明白了。非常好。然後，我能否再補充最後一個問題。您預測卡羅萊納州的已獲股本回報率 (ROE) 2020 年的回報率會比過去幾年略低。這主要與去年允許股本回報率的下降有關嗎？還有其他因素嗎？我知道在利率案件中討論這個問題比較困難，但您能提供一些方向性的評論嗎？

A couple of factors that come in, you -- as you build investment base for the upcoming rate case, you will incur some lag, as I referred to, and then you'll catch that up when you have a rate case. So some of those returns will move around depending upon rate case timing. I think that's one of the factors to think about as well.

需要考慮的因素有幾個——正如我之前提到的，當你為即將到來的利率案例建立投資基礎時，你會遇到一些滯後，然後當你遇到利率案例時，你才能彌補這些滯後。所以，部分報酬率會根據利率案例的時機而波動。我認為這也是需要考慮的因素之一。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our time for questions and answers today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Lynn Good for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝大家。女士們，先生們，今天的問答時間到此結束。我想把會議交還給Lynn Good，請她發表補充或結束語。

Well, I want to thank everyone for joining the call today. We're proud of our accomplishments in 2019 and believe that the company is well positioned not only to deliver industry-leading service to our customers but also results -- strong results for our shareholders in the years ahead. We look forward to seeing you at our ESG Investor Day in May and also look forward to any follow-up questions that you have, our IR team will be available. So thanks again for joining us.

好的，感謝大家今天參加電話會議。我們為2019年所取得的成就感到自豪，並相信公司不僅能夠為客戶提供業界領先的服務，還能在未來幾年為股東帶來強勁的業績。我們期待在5月份的ESG投資者日與您相見，也期待您有任何後續問題，我們的投資者關係團隊將隨時為您解答。再次感謝您的參與。

Thank you. And again, that does conclude today's call. We thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。