Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the Duke Energy third-quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Sammy, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，感謝各位今天參加杜克能源公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我叫薩米，今天我將負責協調您的通話。（操作說明）

I would now like to hand over to our host, Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead, Abby.

現在我將把發言權交給我們的主持人，投資者關係副總裁艾比·莫辛格，讓她開始吧。請繼續，艾比。

Thank you, Sammy, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's third-quarter 2025 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Harry Sideris, President and CEO, along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，薩米，大家早安。歡迎閱讀杜克能源公司 2025 年第三季財報回顧和業務更新。今天主持我們電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Harry Sideris，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Brian Savoy。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information, along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論將包括非GAAP財務指標和前瞻性資訊的使用。由於今天公佈的資料和杜克能源公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中揭露的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明有所不同。本次簡報的附錄包含補充訊息，以及非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

With that, let me turn the call over to Harry.

那麼，我把電話交給哈利吧。

Thank you, Abby, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced strong results for the third quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 compared to $1.62 last year driven by continued growth in our electric utilities. We are well positioned for a solid finish to the year and are narrowing our full-year guidance range to $6.25 to $6.35. I'm proud of how our teammates are executing our strategy, delivering value for our customers, communities and shareholders every day while preparing our system to serve the growing energy needs of tomorrow.

謝謝你，艾比，大家早安。今天，我們公佈了第三季強勁的業績，調整後每股收益為 1.81 美元，而去年同期為 1.62 美元，這主要得益於我們電力業務的持續成長。我們已做好充分準備，預計在年底取得穩健的業績，並將全年業績預期範圍縮小至每股6.25美元至6.35美元。我為團隊成員執行策略的方式感到自豪，他們每天都在為客戶、社區和股東創造價值，同時也為滿足未來日益增長的能源需求做好準備。

We approached 2026 with momentum as our company converts large load economic development prospects into tangible projects with signed electric service agreements, and we are already turning dirt on projects to meet this load growth. We're carrying out an ambitious generation build that will add more than 13 gigawatts of capacity to our system in the next five years. With the maturing pipeline and concrete investment plans in place, we're reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029 and and have confidence we will earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.

我們以強勁的勢頭邁向 2026 年，公司將大型電力負荷經濟發展前景轉化為已簽署電力服務協議的切實項目，並且我們已經開始動工建設滿足這一負載增長的項目。我們正在進行一項雄心勃勃的發電設施建設項目，未來五年內將為我們的系統增加超過 13 吉瓦的容量。隨著產品線日趨成熟，具體的投資計劃也已落實到位，我們重申到 2029 年的長期每股收益增長率為 5% 至 7%，並且有信心從 2028 年開始，我們的盈利將達到該區間的上半部分。

Moving to Slide 5. As load growth materializes and we invest in modernizing our system, we expect our new five-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion, increasing the largest investment plan in the industry. The step-up is primarily related to investments in new generation that will drive earnings base growth of more than 8.5% through 2030. We will provide additional details on the updated capital and financing plan on our fourth-quarter call in February.

切換到第5張投影片。隨著負載成長的實現以及我們對系統現代化的投資，我們預計新的五年資本計畫將在 950 億美元至 1,050 億美元之間，這將是業內最大的投資計畫。這一增長主要與對新一代技術的投資有關，這將推動到 2030 年盈利基礎增長超過 8.5%。我們將在二月的第四季財報電話會議上提供有關更新後的資本和融資計劃的更多細節。

As the investment needs of our utilities accelerate, I want to underscore that customer value and affordability remain front and center. Our job is to address the needs of all customers, from large industrial customers that are competing against a global market to residential customers that are managing their household budgets. This focus starts with cost management, which is a core competency for Duke Energy. We continue to leverage AI and pursue a technology-enabled industry-leading cost structure as we invest in our system.

隨著公用事業投資需求的加速成長，我想強調的是，客戶價值和可負擔性仍然是重中之重。我們的工作是滿足所有客戶的需求，從在全球市場競爭的大型工業客戶到管理家庭預算的居民客戶。這項重點首先放在成本管理上，而成本管理正是杜克能源的核心競爭力。我們將繼續利用人工智慧技術，並追求以技術為支撐的行業領先成本結構，同時不斷投資我們的系統。

Other tools we are utilizing to keep rates as low as possible, include the combination of Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress utilities, which, if approved, would save retail customers more than $1 billion through 2038. Store cost securitization which is expected to save customers in the Carolinas up to 18% on their bills compared to traditional recovery mechanisms, energy tax credits which collectively result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual savings. And we're protecting existing customers through tariff structures and contract provisions for new large load projects. These are just a few of the many solutions we employ to ensure our 10 million customers receive the service they count on at a fair price.

我們正在利用其他工具來盡可能降低費率，包括將 Duke Energy Carolinas 和 Duke Energy Progress 合併，如果獲得批准，到 2038 年將為零售客戶節省超過 10 億美元。商店成本證券化預計將為卡羅萊納州的客戶節省高達 18% 的帳單費用，與傳統的回收機制相比，能源稅收抵免加起來每年可節省數億美元。我們正在透過關稅結構和新的大型負荷項目的合約條款來保護現有客戶。以上只是我們為確保 1000 萬客戶以合理的價格獲得他們所依賴的服務而採取的眾多解決方案中的幾個例子。

We recognize that our work to provide affordable energy for customers is never done, but we are proud that average rate changes have paced below the rate of inflation over the last decade and that our rates are well below the national average.

我們認識到，為客戶提供價格合理的能源是一項永無止境的工作，但我們感到自豪的是，過去十年平均費率的變化速度低於通貨膨脹率，而且我們的費率遠低於全國平均水平。

Turning to Slide 6. The majority of our capital plan increase relates to our record generation build, which is hitting a new gear. Last month, we filed our updated Carolinas resource plan in North Carolina, which expands upon the previous filing approved by regulators in 2024 and and presents an updated path to continue to meet the needs of our customers reliably and affordably. The plan maintains an all-of-the-above strategy and supports the work already underway to meet near-term growth.

翻到第6張投影片。我們資本計畫增加的大部分資金都與我們創紀錄的發電項目建設有關，該項目正在加速推進。上個月，我們在北卡羅來納州提交了更新的卡羅萊納資源計劃，該計劃擴展了監管機構於 2024 年批准的先前文件，並提出了繼續可靠且經濟地滿足客戶需求的最新途徑。該計劃秉持「全面發展」的策略，並支持目前正在進行的工作，以滿足近期成長需求。

Importantly, the updated IRP results in annual customer bill impacts of approximately 2% over the coming decade below the rate of inflation and significantly lower than the previously approved plan. The roadmap we laid out isn't just a long-term view. We're actively executing on generation build today.

重要的是，更新後的 IRP 將在未來十年內對客戶的年度帳單產生約 2% 的影響，低於通貨膨脹率，並且遠低於先前批准的計劃。我們制定的路線圖不僅僅是一個長遠規劃。我們今天正在積極執行代際建構。

We're on track to add more than 8.5 gigawatts of new dispatchable generation across our service territories over the next five years. This includes over 1 gigawatt of upgrades to maximize the value of our existing fleet and 7.5 gigawatts of new natural gas. In the Carolinas, we have secured all major permit approvals, gas supply, long lead equipment, and workforce contracts for our Person County combined cycle units and construction has commenced at the site. We also recently filed CPCNs for the Anderson County combined cycle in Smith combustion turbine projects. We expect approvals on both these sites in mid-2026.

未來五年，我們將在服務區域內新增超過 8.5 吉瓦的可調度發電量。這包括超過 1 吉瓦的升級改造，以最大限度地發揮我們現有設備的價值，以及 7.5 吉瓦的新天然氣發電項目。在卡羅萊納州，我們已經獲得了珀森縣聯合循環機組的所有主要許可證批准、天然氣供應、長週期設備和勞動力合同，並且現場施工已經開始。我們最近也為安德森縣的史密斯燃氣渦輪機聯合循環計畫提交了 CPCN。我們預計這兩個地點的批准將於 2026 年年中完成。

In Indiana, we appreciate the commission's recent approval of our CPCN for the Cayuga combined cycle gas units, a critical project to meet the state's growing power needs. The order approved two settlements reached in the case as well as semi-annual CWIP recovery through a rider. This recovery mechanism will support the balance sheet through the construction cycle and reduce overall cost to the customers. All of the work underway today will enable us to continue to serve our customers reliably and affordably into the future.

在印第安納州，我們感謝委員會最近批准了我們為卡尤加聯合循環燃氣機組提交的CPCN申請，這是一個滿足該州日益增長的電力需求的關鍵項目。該命令批准了此案中達成的兩項和解協議，以及透過附加條款每半年進行一次的 CWIP 追償。此回收機制將在整個施工週期中支撐資產負債表，並降低客戶的整體成本。今天正在進行的所有工作將使我們能夠在未來繼續可靠且經濟地為客戶提供服務。

Beyond supply and power, these grid and generation investments deliver significant value to our communities. In September, we partnered with E&Y to estimate the economic impact of our investment plan. The 10-year capital plan we laid out in February will equate to over $370 billion in economic output, including approximately $130 billion in labor income and will contribute more than $200 billion to the GDP for the communities we serve. The investment will also support nearly 170,000 jobs annually. We are privileged to be a critical economic driver of the communities we serve, and we look forward to growing together in the decades to come.

除了供應和電力之外，這些電網和發電投資也為我們的社區帶來了巨大的價值。9 月份，我們與安永會計師事務所合作，評估了我們的投資計畫的經濟影響。我們在二月制定的十年資本計劃將帶來超過 3700 億美元的經濟產出，其中包括約 1300 億美元的勞動收入，並將為我們服務的社區的 GDP 貢獻超過 2000 億美元。這項投資每年還將支持近 17 萬個就業機會。我們很榮幸能成為我們所服務社區的重要經濟驅動力，並期待在未來的幾十年與社區共同成長。

In closing, the fundamentals of our business are the strongest they've ever been. We're powering tremendous growth across the Southeast and Midwest with solid plans based on concrete projects that provide durable runway of investment well into the future. We're meeting our financial and strategic objectives while continuing our focus on operational excellence, and I am confident the tailwinds we see will continue to strengthen.

總之，我們業務的基本面比以往任何時候都更加強勁。我們憑藉以具體項目為基礎的穩健計劃，推動東南部和中西部地區實現巨大增長，為未來的持續投資提供保障。我們在實現財務和策略目標的同時，也繼續專注於卓越運營，我相信我們所看到的有利因素將會繼續加強。

With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

那麼，我把電話交給布萊恩吧。

Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on slide 7, we continue to build on the momentum from the first half of the year with reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 in the third quarter. This represents over 11% growth versus adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 last year, putting us firmly on track to deliver the targeted growth in 2025.

謝謝你，哈里，大家早安。如投影片 7 所示，我們延續了上半年的成長勢頭，第三季報告和調整後的每股收益為 1.81 美元。與去年調整後的每股收益 1.62 美元相比，這代表成長超過 11%，使我們穩步朝著 2025 年實現目標成長的方向邁進。

Within the segments, Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.24, driven by higher retail sales volumes and the implementation of new rates across many of our jurisdictions. Weather was above normal in the quarter but not as favorable as the prior year. And interest expense increased as we execute our growing investment plans. Gas Utilities and Infrastructure results were largely flat to last year, consistent with the seasonality of the LDC business. And finally, the Other segment was down $0.04, primarily due to higher interest expense.

在各板塊中，電力公用事業和基礎設施板塊上漲 0.24 美元，這主要得益於零售銷售量增加以及我們許多轄區實施了新的費率。本季天氣狀況優於往年平均水平，但不如去年同期理想。隨著我們不斷推動投資計劃，利息支出也隨之增加。天然氣公用事業和基礎設施業務的業績與去年基本持平，這與當地燃氣公司業務的季節性規則相符。最後，其他板塊下跌 0.04 美元，主要原因是利息支出增加。

As we think about the remainder of the year, recall that we have a demonstrated track record of managing agility in both directions. In the fourth quarter of last year, we implemented an extensive one-time cost savings and agility measures in response to the historic 2024 storm season. In contrast, our strong year-to-date results in 2025, including favorable weather, provide an opportunity to reinvest in the system. With these fourth quarter considerations and year-to-date performance in mind, we are highly confident in achieving our narrowed EPS guidance range of $6.25 to $6.35.

展望今年剩餘時間，請記住，我們在雙向敏捷管理方面有著良好的記錄。去年第四季度，為了因應 2024 年歷史性的風暴季，我們實施了一系列一次性成本節約和靈活性措施。相比之下，2025 年迄今的強勁業績，加上有利的天氣條件，為我們提供了對該系統進行再投資的機會。考慮到第四季度的這些因素和年初至今的業績，我們非常有信心實現我們縮小後的每股收益預期範圍，即 6.25 美元至 6.35 美元。

Looking ahead to 2026 growth drivers on slide 8, we expect the constructive regulatory outcomes that are driving 2025 results to continue next year. We are progressing through our multiyear rate plans in North Carolina and Florida, and we'll implement Phase 2 of the Indiana rate case in March. Midwest and Florida grid riders will continue to provide steady growth. We also expect new rates in South Carolina to be effective in the first quarter of 2026.

展望 2026 年的成長驅動因素（見第 8 頁），我們預計推動 2025 年業績的建設性監管成果將在明年繼續發揮作用。我們正在推動北卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州的多年費率計劃，並將於 3 月實施印第安納州費率方案的第二階段。中西部和佛羅裡達州的鐵路網騎士將繼續帶來穩定的成長。我們也預計南卡羅來納州的新利率將於 2026 年第一季生效。

We were pleased to reach constructive settlements last week with the ORS and other interveners in our DEP rate case. The settlements, which are subject to commission approval, are based on a 9.99% ROE and 53% equity ratio and resolve all open items in the case. Our DEC South Carolina rate case continues to progress as well, and we expect final orders in both cases by year-end.

上週，我們很高興與俄勒岡州監管局 (ORS) 和我們在環境保護部 (DEP) 費率案件中的其他幹預方達成了建設性的和解。這些和解方案尚需委員會批准，以 9.99% 的淨資產收益率和 53% 的權益比率為基礎，並解決了案件中的所有未決事項。我們與南卡羅來納州環境保護部 (DEC) 的費率案件也在持續推進，我們預計這兩個案件都將在年底前得到最終裁決。

I'd also like to highlight that in North Carolina, we provided 30-day notice of our plans to file rate cases for both DEC and DEP later this month. We expect new rates to be effective in early 2027, and we'll provide additional details once the filings are made. As we move through the remainder of the decade, our long-term earnings growth is underpinned by our attractive jurisdictions, which are benefiting from population migration and growing economies.

我還想強調，在北卡羅來納州，我們已提前 30 天通知了 DEC 和 DEP，我們計劃在本月稍後提交費率申請。我們預計新利率將於 2027 年初生效，一旦提交相關文件，我們將提供更多細節。展望未來十年，我們長期的獲利成長得益於我們所在地區具有吸引力，這些地區正受益於人口遷移和經濟成長。

These tailwinds provide an extensive runway of capital deployment opportunities, which drive steady and increasing rate base growth. With solid business environments and efficient recovery mechanisms in place, we are well positioned to deliver 5% to 7% earnings growth through 2029 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.

這些利好因素為資本部署提供了廣闊的空間，從而推動了利率基礎的穩定成長。憑藉穩健的商業環境和高效的復甦機制，我們有信心在 2029 年實現 5% 至 7% 的盈利增長，並有信心從 2028 年開始實現該區間上半部分的盈利增長。

Turning to slide 9. One of our strategic priorities is to solidify our late-stage economic development pipeline and convert prospects into firm projects. We've been working closely with state and local partners to deliver on that commitment. Internally, we've developed new teams dedicated to speed and execution and implemented creative solutions that accelerate the time to power. These efforts are yielding tangible results with approximately 3 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements with data centers this year alone. This includes ESAs signed this quarter with Digital Realty and Edged who are making multibillion-dollar investments in North Carolina to support AI infrastructure.

翻到第9張投影片。我們的策略重點之一是鞏固後期經濟發展項目儲備，並將潛在項目轉化為實際項目。我們一直與州和地方合作夥伴密切合作，以履行這項承諾。在公司內部，我們組建了專注於速度和執行力的新團隊，並實施了能夠加快供電速度的創新解決方案。這些努力已取得實際成果，光是今年就與資料中心簽署了約 3 吉瓦的電力服務協議。這其中包括本季與 Digital Realty 和 Edged 簽署的 ESA，這兩家公司正在北卡羅來納州進行數十億美元的投資，以支援人工智慧基礎設施。

And we're not just signing data centers. Our economic development activities have yielded over $11 billion of capital commitments from other commercial and industrial customers in 2025 these projects are expected to bring an additional 25,000 jobs to our service territories and support our load growth projections.

我們不僅僅是在簽約資料中心。我們的經濟發展活動已從其他商業和工業客戶那裡獲得了超過 110 億美元的資本承諾。預計到 2025 年，這些項目將為我們的服務區域帶來額外的 25,000 個就業崗位，並支持我們的負載成長預測。

In a rapidly changing external environment where affordability is paramount, I want to emphasize that our electric service agreements contain terms that protect our existing customer base and ensure new large load projects pay their fair share. terms include minimum take provisions, termination charges and refundable capital advances. As a testament to our work delivering on this wave of economic development, in September, we were recognized with the EEI outstanding Customer Engagement award. This award is given directly by corporate customers and highlights our ability to collaborate among broad stakeholder groups on complex projects.

在外部環境瞬息萬變、價格承受能力至關重要的當下，我想強調的是，我們的電力服務協議包含多項條款，旨在保護現有客戶群的利益，並確保新的大型負荷項目支付其應承擔的合理費用。這些條款包括最低用電量規定、終止費用和可退還的預付款。為了證明我們為推動這波經濟發展所做的努力，我們在 9 月獲得了 EEI 傑出客戶參與獎。該獎項由企業客戶直接頒發，彰顯了我們在複雜專案中與廣泛的利害關係人群體進行協作的能力。

And we are just getting started. Active site evaluations are progressing across all of our service territories and many more projects are moving to advanced stage. As our economic development pipeline has matured over the past year, we are more confident than ever in our ability to capture the once-in-a-generation load growth opportunity in front of us.

我們才剛起步。我們正在所有服務區域積極進行現場評估工作，許多專案正在進入後期階段。隨著過去一年經濟發展項目的逐步成熟，我們比以往任何時候都更有信心抓住擺在我們面前的百年一遇的負荷增長機會。

Turning to the balance sheet on slide 10. I first want to recognize the work of our regulators and other stakeholders to address cost recovery from last year's historic storm season in record time. With their support, we were able to successfully issue North Carolina storm securitization bonds approximately one year after Hurricane Helene, and we expect to issue South Carolina bonds before year-end. Securitization is one of the many tools available to help mitigate rate increases for customers, with the North Carolina bonds projected to save customers up to 18% compared to traditional recovery methods. And in Florida, $1.1 billion of storm costs will be fully recovered by February 2026.

請看第 10 頁的資產負債表。首先，我要感謝監管機構和其他利害關係人，他們以創紀錄的速度解決了去年歷史性風暴季造成的損失。在他們的支持下，我們在颶風海倫過後大約一年成功發行了北卡羅來納州風暴證券化債券，我們預計在年底前發行南卡羅來納州債券。證券化是眾多可用於幫助客戶緩解利率上漲的工具之一，預計北卡羅來納州債券與傳統回收方法相比，可為客戶節省高達 18% 的費用。佛羅裡達州預計到 2026 年 2 月將完全收回 11 億美元的風暴損失。

As a result, bills are expected to decrease by approximately $40 a month beginning in March. Across all three jurisdictions, the timely recovery process helps maintain credit quality and reinforces our expectation of achieving 14% or higher FFO to debt by year-end.

因此，預計從三月開始，帳單每月將減少約 40 美元。在所有三個司法管轄區，及時的回收流程有助於維持信貸質量，並鞏固了我們到年底實現 14% 或更高 FFO 與債務比率的預期。

As discussed on the second-quarter call, we are targeting 15% FFO to debt over the long term, which provides 200 basis points of cushion above our Moody's downgrade threshold and 300 basis points above our S&P downgrade threshold. Our balance sheet will continue to improve as we receive proceeds from the Tennessee and Florida transactions, which we expect to close in early 2026. As Harry discussed earlier, we expect our new five-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion. Consistent with previous guidance, we'll target 30% to 50% equity funding for this incremental growth capital.

正如我們在第二季度電話會議上討論的那樣，我們長期目標是使 FFO 與債務之比達到 15%，這比穆迪的降級閾值高出 200 個基點，比標普的降級閾值高出 300 個基點。隨著我們從田納西州和佛羅裡達州的交易中獲得收益，我們的資產負債表將繼續改善，我們預計將於 2026 年初完成這些交易。正如哈里之前所討論的，我們預計新的五年資本計畫規模將在 950 億美元至 1,050 億美元之間。與先前的指導意見一致，我們將以 30% 至 50% 的股權融資來滿足這部分新增成長資本。

Transaction proceeds will satisfy equity needs in 2026 and remaining common equity issuances to support growth represent a very modest percentage of our market cap and will help maintain credit quality during this period of unprecedented capital deployment. We will provide more detail on our capital and financing plan on our fourth-quarter call in February.

交易所得款項將滿足 2026 年的股權需求，剩餘的普通股發行將用於支持成長，這些發行僅占我們市值的一小部分，並將有助於在這一前所未有的資本部署時期維持信用品質。我們將在二月的第四季財報電話會議上提供更多關於資本和融資計畫的細節。

Moving to slide 11. We are well positioned to deliver earnings within our narrowed guidance range in 2025 as well as 5% to 7% growth through 2029. As load growth and capital accelerate, we have confidence we will earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. Our extensive runway of capital investments, coupled with efficient recovery mechanisms, position us to achieve our growth targets, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.

切換到第11張投影片。我們有能力在 2025 年實現收窄後的獲利預期範圍，並在 2029 年實現 5% 至 7% 的成長。隨著負載成長和資本加速成長，我們有信心從 2028 年開始實現收益目標的上半部。我們雄厚的資本投資實力，加上高效的回收機制，使我們能夠實現成長目標；再加上我們誘人的股息殖利率，為股東提供了極具吸引力的風險調整後回報。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

（操作說明）朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯，傑富瑞集團。

So maybe just to kick off here, considering those details that you guys gave us here, can you speak a little bit to the incremental capital that you guys are looking at? I know it's still a range, but how -- when you think about layering that in, is that sort of ratable across the period? Or when you think about layering in that last year 2030, does that finally represent a further acceleration even relative to '28 and '29. You know what I mean?

那麼，首先，考慮到你們剛才提供的細節，你們能否談談你們正在考慮的增量資本？我知道這仍然是一個範圍，但是——當你考慮把這些因素疊加起來時，這在整個時期內是否可以進行評級呢？或者，當你考慮到 2030 年這個最後一年時，這是否最終代表著相對於 2028 年和 2029 年的進一步加速？你知道我的意思？

Like in theory, the move up from $87 billion by $10 billion could be ratable across the forecast period or could be heavily weighted to that final year in 2030? You haven't quite given us the full details here. But I'm curious as to as you think about the cadence of this data center ramp playing itself out, is it really truly weighted towards that last year? Can you speak to that a little bit?

理論上，從 870 億美元增加 100 億美元，這一增長幅度可以在整個預測期內均衡分配，也可以主要集中在 2030 年這一年？你還沒有提供全部細節。但我很好奇，當你思考資料中心擴容的節奏時，它是否真的真正專注於最後一年？能稍微談談這方面嗎？

Yeah, I'll take that, Julien. The way I would think about it, as we're signing up these large load customers, we have more visibility into the infrastructure build we need to make to serve them. And this update in the capital plan has that plus, as we get deeper into the energy modernization strategy, we're investing more. So we knew 2030 was going to be higher than 2025 rolling off. But I would think of it as we're adding capital in every year of the plan.

好的，我接受，朱利安。我認為，隨著我們不斷吸引這些大客戶，我們對需要建造哪些基礎設施來服務他們有了更清晰的認識。這次資本計畫的更新還有另一個好處，那就是隨著我們深入推動能源現代化策略，我們將加大投資。所以我們知道，2030 年的數值會高於 2025 年。但我認為，這就像是我們在計劃的每一年都投入資金一樣。

And it's to build to that ramp of these large customers as we get more firm contracts signed and more visibility into the infrastructure needs of those customers.

我們的目標是隨著更多正式合約的簽訂和對這些客戶的基礎設施需求的更深入了解，逐步擴大這些大客戶的規模。

And I'll add, Julien, it's a very dynamic environment out there. And you saw us raise from $83 billion to $87 billion earlier this year with the Brookfield deal in Florida. And then you're seeing our capital expand here because of what we're seeing in data center growth and economic development as well as our modernization that Brian mentioned. So we'll continue to evaluate and update as we move.

我還要補充一點，朱利安，外面的環境非常瞬息萬變。今年早些時候，你們也看到了我們透過與佛羅裡達州布魯克菲爾德的交易，將資金從 830 億美元籌集到 870 億美元。然後，由於資料中心的成長和經濟發展，以及布萊恩提到的現代化進程，我們看到了我們在這裡資本的擴張。因此，我們將隨著工作的進展而不斷評估和更新。

I know it is truly unusual for you guys to update twice in a given year. outside of your typical cadence of 4Q. So I hear you on that one. Can you speak a little bit more to what that incremental potential is by this roughly $10 billion? Like what's comprised within that? Is that principally just transmission and generation for new data centers? Or are there other pieces in there?

我知道你們一年更新兩次確實很不尋常，這跟你們通常第四季的更新頻率完全不同。我明白你的意思。您能否更詳細地談談這大約 100 億美元的潛在增量是多少？那裡面都包含哪些內容呢？主要就是為新建資料中心提供傳輸和生成服務嗎？還是裡面有其他碎片？

No, Julien, it's more than that, but it does encompass that. So as we sign more energy service agreements, that's a trigger to invest more transmission and potentially generation in this 5-year plan. But we're also evaluating LDC investments that could support the new generation at our Piedmont natural gas company. And those -- all those investments, along with the bull pen of T&D investments that we've got, that we haven't pulled onto the field quite yet we're evaluating all those factors as well as customer affordability as we finalize our final capital plan. That's why we didn't come out with a single point estimate this time because we're still running our models and evaluating rate cases over time and how that might show up.

不，朱利安，它的意義遠不止於此，但它確實包含了這一點。因此，隨著我們簽署更多能源服務協議，這將觸發我們在這個五年計畫中增加對輸電和潛在發電的投資。但我們也正在評估 LDC 的投資，這些投資可以支持我們皮埃蒙特天然氣公司的新一代。所有這些投資，以及我們擁有的輸配電投資儲備，雖然我們還沒有完全投入使用，但我們正在評估所有這些因素以及客戶的承受能力，以便最終確定我們的資本計劃。這就是為什麼我們這次沒有給出單一的估計值，因為我們仍在運行模型，並評估費率案例隨時間的變化情況以及這可能會如何體現。

Julien, we'll have more details in February like we normally do on financing that plan as well as what the details are of that.

Julien，我們將在二月份公佈更多關於該計劃融資以及具體細節的信息，就像我們通常的做法一樣。

Right. But needless to say, you've been pretty committed to the balance sheet, you think the FFO to debt, regardless of where this lands you're going to stick with this updated level pro forma for what you did with debt for earlier this year.

正確的。但毋庸置疑，你一直非常關注資產負債表，你認為 FFO 與債務的比率，無論最終結果如何，你都會堅持使用今年早些時候你對債務所做的更新後的備考水平。

Absolutely. We are committed to 15% FFO over time, and we're on target to be over 14% this year as committed.

絕對地。我們致力於長期實現 15% 的 FFO（營運資金）目標，並且預計今年將按計畫實現 14% 以上的目標。

Carly Davenport, Goldman Sachs.

卡莉·達文波特，高盛集團。

I guess maybe just on the Carolinas IRP, you have included an option for nuclear there, including an AP1000 starting and potentially 2037. I guess, just with some of the announcements that we've seen across the broader nuclear space recently. Just curious how you might envision Duke playing a role in this build-out, particularly as an operator?

我猜想，或許只是在卡羅萊納州綜合資源規劃 (IRP) 中，你們已經包含了核能選項，包括從 2037 年開始的 AP1000。我想，這可能跟我們最近在更廣泛的核能領域看到的一些公告有關。我很好奇您認為 Duke 在這個建設過程中會扮演什麼角色，特別是作為一名操作員？

Yeah. Great question, Carly. As you know, we operate 11 low-cost, safe, reliable nuclear reactors today. So nuclear is a big part of our business. We make sure that our customers get reliable and affordable power every day. We earn over $500 million of tax credits a year to go back to our customers from these nuclear plants. So we feel nuclear is a very important part of the future.

是的。問得好，卡莉。如您所知，我們目前營運11座低成本、安全、可靠的核反應器。所以核能是我們業務的重要組成部分。我們確保客戶每天都能獲得可靠且價格合理的電力。我們每年從這些核電廠獲得超過 5 億美元的稅收抵免，這些抵免將回饋給我們的客戶。所以我們認為核能是未來非常重要的一環。

With that said, there's a lot of things that we have to determine and figure out before we move forward. We're encouraged to see the government and some of the partnerships with Westinghouse that were recently announced leaning into this, addressing supply chain concerns, which is one of the items that we have on our list. We still need to figure out what we're going to do with cost overrun protection and how we're going to protect our investors and our customers from overruns on those projects as well as how we're going to protect the balance sheet if we move forward with nuclear.

話雖如此，在繼續前進之前，我們還有很多事情需要確定和弄清楚。我們很欣慰地看到政府以及最近宣布的與西屋電氣的一些合作關係都在重視這個問題，解決供應鏈問題，這也是我們清單上的一項內容。我們仍然需要弄清楚如何應對成本超支問題，如何保護我們的投資者和客戶免受這些項目成本超支的影響，以及如果我們繼續推進核能項目，如何保護資產負債表。

So we're working to resolve those, working with government officials as well as some of the tech customers. So we'll continue to work that. If you remember last year, our IRP had only SMRs in it. We were asked about the North Carolina Commission to explore light water reactors as well. So we filed a report this past March to show what it would take or what would be an AP1000 type project.

所以我們正在努力解決這些問題，與政府官員以及一些科技客戶合作。所以我們會繼續努力。如果你還記得的話，去年我們的綜合資源規劃（IRP）中只有小型模組化反應器（SMR）。我們也曾被問到北卡羅來納州委員會對輕水反應器的探索。因此，我們在今年三月提交了一份報告，說明AP1000類型的專案需要具備哪些條件或具備哪些條件。

So we've added that into our plans in our model, and we'll continue to evaluate both of those SMRs as well as large water reactors. But again, nothing going forward until we have those other items are resolved.

因此，我們已將此納入我們的模型計劃中，並將繼續評估這兩種小型模組化反應器以及大型水反應器。但是，在解決其他問題之前，任何事情都無法繼續進行。

Very clear. Okay. Great. And then maybe just another on Carolinas resource planning. As you laid out the updated plan, the share of gas stayed pretty consistent with the prior plan.

非常清楚。好的。偉大的。然後或許可以再談談卡羅萊納州的資源規劃。在你提出的更新計畫中，天然氣的份額基本上與先前的計畫保持一致。

I guess, would you expect that to move higher to the extent that there's expanded natural gas pipeline capacity into the Southeast? And would something like the MVP Boost project potentially be a needle mover there?

我想，隨著東南部天然氣管道輸送能力的擴大，你會預期價格會上漲嗎？像 MVP Boost 計畫這樣的措施是否有可能產生顯著影響？

Yeah. There's a lot of gas in that plan as well as a lot of batteries in solar. So we continue all of the above strategy and how we serve our load going forward. We've done a lot of work to secure gas through the early part of 2030, and we continue to work on beyond that. We do expect, as economic development growth continues, we will need more gas and more pipelines and are working with the companies to provide that.

是的。該計劃中既包含大量的天然氣，也包含大量的太陽能電池。因此，我們將繼續沿用上述所有策略，並繼續履行我們未來的職責。我們已經做了很多工作來保障到 2030 年初的天然氣供應，並且我們將繼續努力，爭取更長遠的未來。我們預計，隨著經濟發展和成長的持續，我們將需要更多的天然氣和更多的管道，我們正在與相關公司合作以滿足這些需求。

So we'll continue to update the process and the progress on that. We feel like dispatchable power is critical to serve these new loads and gas is the source that we're focused on right now.

因此，我們將持續更新該流程及其進展。我們認為可調度電力對於滿足這些新的電力需求至關重要，而天然氣是我們目前關注的能源。

Shar Pourreza, Wells Fargo.

Shar Pourreza，富國銀行。

It's actually Alex on for Shar. I just wanted to touch on the earnings outlook. So you've indicated you expect to be at the high end of the 5% to 7% starting in '28. Just sort of want to get a sense, is there any potential for that growth to begin ramping sooner? And if you can just remind us what drives the delta between the 5% to 7% EPS growth and that 8%, 8.5% rate base growth you have out there.

實際上，是 Alex 取代 Shar 上台。我只想簡單談談獲利前景。所以你已經表示，你預計從 2028 年開始，收益率將達到 5% 到 7% 的高端水平。我只是想了解一下，這種成長是否有可能提早加速？如果你能提醒我們一下，是什麼因素導致了 5% 到 7% 的每股盈餘成長率與你們所說的 8%、8.5% 的利率基數成長率之間的差異，那就太好了。

That's great, Alex. And it's the right question as we have these incremental investments, capital plans expanding and customers are getting signed up I would first say that every year, the plan is within the 5% to 7%. But 28% is an inflection point where we're investing more capital in Florida. We were completing the multiyear rate plan. The transaction with Brookfield will be completed, and we talked about expanding capital in Florida in that period.

太好了，亞歷克斯。這個問題問得對，因為我們有這些增量投資，資本計畫不斷擴大，客戶也不斷簽約。首先我要說的是，每年的計畫都在 5% 到 7% 之間。但 28% 是一個轉捩點，標誌著我們在佛羅裡達州投入了更多資金。我們正在完成多年費率計劃。與 Brookfield 的交易將會完成，我們在此期間討論了在佛羅裡達州擴大資本規模的問題。

And we're also seeing many of the large load customers we're signing up today are coming online. Their projects will be -- we have more visibility in their construction projects. Their projects will be completed in the second half of 2017. So the ramp will begin, but it really hits an inflection point in 2028, and it continues to grow into the early 30s.

我們也看到，今天簽約的許多大客戶都已上線。他們的計畫將會是──我們對他們的建設項目有更深入的了解。他們的計畫將於2017年下半年完成。所以成長動能會開始，但真正的轉捩點會在 2028 年到來，並持續成長到 1930 年代初期。

So that gives us high confidence that we're going to be in the top half of the growth range in 2028. And I want to underscore the growth is strong, and I would think of it as a CAGR in the top half in 2028 off of 2025 base of 6/30, not just an annual growth.

因此，我們有很高的信心，到 2028 年，我們的成長率將處於預期範圍的上半部。我想強調的是，成長勢頭強勁，我認為2028年上半年的複合年增長率（CAGR）應該以2025年6月30日為基準，而不僅僅是年增長率。

Got it. Okay. Helpful there.

知道了。好的。那方面很有幫助。

And I would add, it's -- we feel it's durable to beyond that. We'll continue -- we see the prospects continuing. So we feel like this is a long-term play for us.

我還要補充一點，我們認為它的耐用性遠不止於此。我們將繼續——我們認為前景依然光明。所以我們認為這對我們來說是一項長期投資。

Great. Got it. And just on the funding. So you still have a good amount of equity out there. You've done good deals in Tennessee and Florida, which have been accretive.

偉大的。知道了。僅就資金方面而言。所以你仍然擁有相當可觀的資產。你在田納西州和佛羅裡達州都做了很多不錯的交易，這些交易都帶來了收益。

So just other opportunities around asset recycling? Or should we assume equity and equity-like instruments going forward?

所以，還有其他圍繞資產回收的機會嗎？或者我們應該假設未來將以股權和類似股權的工具為準？

Yes, Alex. Our focus is on digesting those two big deals that we announced earlier this year, and then we'll continue to fund like we've mentioned before, 30% to 50% of our plan with equity depending on the projects. We'll update the details of that in February, as we always do. But we're committed to protecting the balance sheet, meeting that 15% FFO that we committed to, and being above 14% this year.

是的，亞歷克斯。我們的重點是消化今年稍早宣布的兩項大交易，然後我們將繼續像之前提到的那樣進行融資，根據專案情況，用股權融資占我們計劃的 30% 到 50%。我們將像往常一樣，在二月更新相關細節。但我們致力於保護資產負債表，實現我們承諾的 15% 的 FFO（營運資金）目標，並力爭今年超過 14%。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通。

This is Diana Niles on for Jeremy. If I may expand on Alex's first question, I was wondering, to what extent does that high end of 5% to 7% reflects incremental capital? And does any of that incremental capital factor into like the confidence you expressed today to hit the high end of the range starting in 2028.

這裡是戴安娜·奈爾斯，替傑里米報道。如果允許我補充一下 Alex 的第一個問題，我想知道，5% 到 7% 的高端在多大程度上反映了增量資本？那麼，這些新增資本是否會影響您今天所表達的信心，從 2028 年達到預期範圍的高端？

Diana, I would -- this is Brian. I'll take that. As I think about the top half of the growth range in beginning of 2028, I would say it fits within any of the $95 billion to $105 billion capital range that we provided. It's not depending upon us being at the high end or it would be lower on the low end. It's contemplated in all those scenarios.

黛安娜，我──我是布萊恩。我接受。當我思考 2028 年初成長範圍的上半部時，我認為它符合我們提供的 950 億美元至 1,050 億美元資本範圍中的任何一個。這並不取決於我們是否處於高端水平，否則它就會處於低端水平。在所有這些情況下都會考慮這一點。

(Operator Instructions) David Paz, Wolfe Research.

（操作說明）David Paz，Wolfe Research。

Just on your large load commentary, could you remind me what does the advanced pipeline look like for large load, and how much of that would you say is in advanced discussions that could be added to the 3 gigawatts of ESAs you signed this year?

關於您提到的大負載問題，您能否提醒我一下，大負載的高階管道規劃是什麼樣的？您認為其中有多少已經進入深入討論階段，可以添加到您今年簽署的 3 吉瓦 ESA 中？

We have a very large and diverse pipeline of projects. I would say ours is just as big, if not bigger than anybody else is out there. But really, our focus has been on the projects that are from the credible hyperscalers as well as third-party developers that we feel like have the ability to get these projects through fruition.

我們有大量且種類繁多的項目正在籌備中。我認為我們的規模即使不是比其他任何地方都大，也至少和其他地方一樣大。但實際上，我們的重點一直放在那些來自信譽良好的超大規模資料中心營運商以及我們認為有能力將這些專案最終實現的第三方開發人員的專案上。

So we're working with them to get through the queue to get through the funnel as we call it, to be able to have these signed ESAs. So we signed in the last six months, 3 gigawatts of ESAs, as we mentioned in our presentation, and we continue to work with many others on that. So really focused on nailing down those energy service agreements because that's what we feel is the right focus for us. So we're working through a large pipeline, but really focused on developing those prospects into those final projects.

所以我們正在與他們合作，幫助他們完成排隊流程，透過我們所謂的「漏斗」流程，以便能夠獲得這些已簽署的 ESA。正如我們在簡報中所提到的，在過去的六個月裡，我們簽署了 3 吉瓦的能源供應協議 (ESA)，並且我們將繼續與許多其他人就此展開合作。因此，我們真正專注於敲定這些能源服務協議，因為我們認為這才是我們應該關注的重點。所以我們正在推進大量項目，但真正專注於將這些潛在客戶發展成最終項目。

Okay. Okay. So you wouldn't -- you don't want to characterize how much are like near-term advanced discussions that could be signed over the next year or so?

好的。好的。所以你不想——你不想描述有多少是近期可能在未來一年左右簽署的高級磋商？

It's a very dynamic environment, David, and we continue to work on it every day, and we have a dedicated team, like Brian mentioned earlier, that is focused on this 24/7 how we get this into our system and into these signed agreements as fast as possible.

大衛，這是一個瞬息萬變的環境，我們每天都在努力，而且我們有一個專門的團隊，就像布萊恩之前提到的那樣，他們全天候專注於如何盡快將這些內容納入我們的系統並落實到已簽署的協議中。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate that. And sorry to kind of go back to the EPS growth commentary. I just want to make sure I understood what you added, I think, at the end of the durability of this growth starting in 2018, so the upper half of your 5% to 7% beginning in 2028, and that's durable into the 30s at that same level off of the 20%, I guess, 7%. Is that the way to think about it?

知道了。好的。我很感激。很抱歉，我又回到了每股盈餘成長的評論上。我只是想確認我是否理解了您補充的內容，我認為，您是在 2018 年開始的這種增長的持久性末尾添加的，也就是從 2028 年開始的 5% 到 7% 的上半部分，並且這種增長將持續到 30 年代，保持同樣的水平，基於 20% 的水平，我猜是 7%。是這樣想的嗎？

Yeah, that's a good assumption. As these economic development projects come into play and we continue to invest in our system, we see that being a durable approach.

是的，這是一個很好的假設。隨著這些經濟發展項目的實施，以及我們持續投資於我們的體系，我們認為這是一種可持續的方法。

Nicholas Campanella, Barclays.

尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉，巴克萊銀行。

I got on late, so sorry if I'm repeating a question. I really just had one was just the 30% to 50% of equity funding to fund the capital upside, what would kind of put you in the lower end of that range? And what should we be watching there from the balance sheet side that could enable you to do less equity?

我上線晚了，所以如果我重複提問，請見諒。我當時只考慮了 30% 到 50% 的股權融資來滿足資本成長的需求，那麼什麼樣的比例會讓你處於這個範圍的下限呢？那麼，從資產負債表的角度來看，我們應該關注哪些方面，才能使您減少股權投資？

Yeah, Nick. It's a great question. And we provided this range in previous quarters, and it informed how we funded the capital plan in the current five-year plan. What would determine the lower end would be investments with a higher velocity of recovery. So there's less equity need as you tack into those investments over time versus more investments that have a bit of slower recovery.

是的，尼克。這是一個很好的問題。我們在前幾季提供了這個範圍，並以此為依據，為目前五年計畫中的資本計畫籌集資金。決定收益率下限的因素是回收速度較快的投資。因此，隨著你逐步增加這些投資，所需的股權資金就會減少，而那些復甦速度較慢的投資則需要更多資金。

Maybe it takes a while to get it into the rider mechanism or the like. We might need some balance sheet support. But the last capital update, we were at 40% of the incremental growth capital funded with common equity or equity support. And I would think of it as at the faster recovery capital would be in the low end and the slower recovery capital being in the more like 50%.

或許需要一段時間才能把它裝進騎士機構之類的裝置裡。我們可能需要一些資產負債表的支持。但根據最近一次資本更新，我們新增成長資本的 40% 是透過普通股或股權支持融資的。我認為，復甦速度較快的資本佔比會較低，而復甦速度較慢的資本佔比則會在 50% 左右。

We currently have no further questions. So I'd like to hand back to Harry for some closing remarks.

我們目前沒有其他問題。那麼，我想把麥克風交還給哈里，讓他做些總結發言。

Yeah. Just to wrap up, I want to leave you all with three items. Number one, we see a lot of momentum into the end of this year and into '26 and beyond. Two, our business is in the strongest position it has ever been. And finally, I am confident we are going to earn in the top half of our 5% to 7% range beginning in 2028.

是的。最後，我想給大家留下三點。第一，我們看到今年底、2026 年及以後都將保持強勁的發展勢頭。第二，我們公司目前處於有史以來最強勁的時期。最後，我有信心從 2028 年開始，我們的收益率將達到 5% 到 7% 區間的前半部分。

But more importantly, our plan is durable well into the future. So again, thanks for joining us today, and thank you for your investment in Duke Energy. I hope everybody has a great day.

但更重要的是，我們的計劃具有長遠的可持續性。再次感謝您今天蒞臨本站，也感謝您對杜克能源的投資。祝大家今天過得愉快。

That concludes today's call. We thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。