Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Duke Energy fourth quarter earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mike Callahan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加杜克能源第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Mike Callahan 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chairman, President and CEO; along with Steve Young, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安，感謝您參加杜克能源 2018 年第四季財報回顧和業務更新。今天主持我們電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Lynn Good 以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Steve Young。

Today's discussion will include forward-looking information and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 presents the safe harbor statement, which accompanies our presentation materials. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures can be found on duke-energy.com and in today's materials. Please note, the appendix for today's presentation includes supplemental information and additional disclosures.

今天的討論將包括前瞻性資訊和非公認會計準則財務指標的使用。幻燈片 2 展示了我們簡報資料附帶的安全港聲明。非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳表可在 duke-energy.com 和今天的資料中找到。請注意，今天簡報的附錄包含補充資訊和額外揭露。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Lynn.

說完這些，我就把電話轉給 Lynn。

Mike, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we share detail on our results, I wanted to take a moment to acknowledge that this is our first earnings call since the passing of Jim Rogers. Jim was a transformational leader who served with a boundless passion and helped shape the future of our company and the energy industry. He will be deeply missed. Now as Jim would have wanted, let's move on to our business agenda.

麥克，謝謝你，大家早安。在我們分享業績細節之前，我想花點時間確認一下，這是吉姆羅傑斯去世後我們的第一次財報電話會議。吉姆是一位變革型領導者，他以無限的熱情服務並幫助塑造我們公司和能源產業的未來。我們將深深懷念他。現在，正如吉姆所希望的那樣，讓我們繼續討論我們的商業議程。

Today, we announced adjusted earnings per share of $4.72, closing out a successful 2018. We achieved results in the top half of our original 2018 guidance range while also delivering constructive regulatory outcomes and outstanding operational performance through Hurricanes Florence and Michael. We also announced our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.20. The $5 midpoint of this range is consistent with our previous guidance for this upcoming year. This growth reflects the strength of our regulated utility franchises, a robust capital plan and recovery mechanisms that will deliver reliable and affordable energy to our customers and returns to our shareholders.

今天，我們宣布調整後每股收益為 4.72 美元，為成功的 2018 年畫下完美句點。我們取得了 2018 年原定指導範圍上半部的成果，同時在佛羅倫薩颶風和邁克爾颶風中也取得了建設性的監管成果和出色的營運表現。我們也宣布了 2019 年調整後的每股盈餘預期範圍為 4.80 美元至 5.20 美元。該範圍的中點為 5 美元，與我們先前對今年的預測一致。這一增長反映了我們受監管的公用事業特許經營權的實力、強大的資本計劃和恢復機制，這些將為我們的客戶提供可靠且負擔得起的能源，並為我們的股東帶來回報。

We are extending our 4% to 6% growth rates through 2023, off the midpoint of our 2019 guidance range. This update in our base year reflects the near-term impact of delays in Atlantic Coast Pipeline, which I will discuss further in a moment.

我們將 2019 年指導範圍中點的成長率延長至 4% 至 6%，直至 2023 年。我們基準年的更新反映了大西洋海岸管道延誤的近期影響，稍後我將進一步討論。

We remain confident in the strength of our core businesses and the ability to grow with investments that deliver value to our customers and our shareholders. Our focus remains on execution, and I'd like to begin by highlighting our success in 2018.

我們對我們的核心業務實力以及透過為客戶和股東創造價值的投資來實現成長的能力充滿信心。我們的重點仍然是執行，首先我想強調我們在 2018 年的成功。

Slide 4 reinforces our ability to deliver. 2018 marked another year of outstanding performance across the company with strong financial results, constructive regulatory outcomes and operational excellence. In addition to meeting our earnings commitments, we continue to grow the dividend in 2018, increasing it more than 4%. We also addressed the impact of tax reform. We achieved fair regulatory treatment across our jurisdictions, providing benefits for customers while maintaining the utilities' credit quality. We also issued $2 billion in common equity to further support our balance sheet.

投影片 4 增強了我們的交付能力。2018 年是公司業績再創輝煌的一年，財務表現強勁，監管成果積極，營運卓越。除了履行我們的獲利承諾外，我們還在 2018 年繼續增加股息，增幅超過 4%。我們也討論了稅制改革的影響。我們在管轄範圍內實現了公平的監管待遇，在為客戶提供利益的同時保持了公用事業的信用品質。我們也發行了 20 億美元的普通股，以進一步支持我們的資產負債表。

We were very active in the regulatory space during 2018. We received constructive orders in our North Carolina rate cases, including coal ash cost recovery and completed rate cases for our electric utilities in Ohio and Kentucky. We also filed base rate cases in South Carolina. And as always, we remained focused on safety. We maintained our industry-leading safety performance for yet another year as well as operational excellence in the face of significant damage from Hurricanes Florence and Michael.

2018 年我們在監管領域非常活躍。我們在北卡羅來納州的費率案件中收到了建設性命令，包括煤灰成本回收和我們在俄亥俄州和肯塔基州的電力公司的已完成費率案件。我們也在南卡羅來納州提起了基準利率案件。像往常一樣，我們仍然注重安全。面對佛羅倫薩颶風和邁克爾颶風造成的嚴重破壞，我們又一年保持了業界領先的安全業績以及卓越的營運。

Between the 2 storms, we restored 3 million outages and responded to flooding at many of our facilities due to historic rainfall. With our extensive preparation work and quick response efforts, we kept our infrastructure well protected.

在兩次暴風雨之間，我們恢復了 300 萬次停電，並應對了許多由於歷史性降雨導致的設施被淹沒的情況。透過我們充分的準備工作和快速的回應努力，我們的基礎設施得到了良好的保護。

And despite the safe shutdown of the Brunswick power station during Hurricane Florence, our nuclear team achieved a capacity factor above 90% for the 20th consecutive year. This successful response was recognized by our industry as we were awarded EEI's Emergency Recovery Award, and I'm very proud of our employees resolve and tireless effort to restore power in the most devastated areas across the Carolinas and Florida.

儘管布倫瑞克發電站在佛羅倫薩颶風期間安全關閉，但我們的核電團隊連續 20 年實現了 90% 以上的容量係數。這次成功的回應得到了業界的認可，我們因此獲得了 EEI 的緊急復原獎，我為我們的員工在北卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州受災最嚴重地區恢復電力的決心和不懈努力感到非常自豪。

Finally, last month, we were named to Fortune Magazine's 2019 list of The World's Most Admired Companies for the second consecutive year, underscoring that we're on the right path as we deliver value to customers and shareholders.

最後，上個月，我們連續第二年被《財星》雜誌評為 2019 年全球最受讚賞公司之一，證明我們在為客戶和股東創造價值方面走在了正確的道路上。

As we look ahead to 2019 and beyond, Slide 5 emphasizes the strength of the Duke Energy portfolio and the growth profile we have ahead of us. Our diverse, highly regulated infrastructure investments are at the core of our robust capital plan. Over 90% of our growth capital will be spent over the next 5 years across our regulated electric and gas businesses, driving strong earnings-based growth. These investments are consistent with our strategic vision for our company in this period of transformation.

展望 2019 年及以後，幻燈片 5 強調了杜克能源投資組合的實力以及我們未來的成長前景。我們多樣化、嚴格監管的基礎設施投資是我們強勁資本計畫的核心。未來 5 年內，我們將把 90% 以上的成長資本用於受監管的電力和天然氣業務，推動強勁的獲利成長。這些投資與我們公司轉型時期的策略願景一致。

Slide 6 depicts the strategic framework that we began sharing with you 2 years ago. And since then, we've made meaningful strides to modernize the grid, generate cleaner energy and expand the natural gas infrastructure. We've engaged stakeholders to find solutions as the pace of change in our industry accelerates. And we continue our work to modernize cost recovery mechanisms to better align with our investments. Our focus in these areas as well as maintaining our history of strong safety and operational performance enables us to transform the customer experience and deliver value to shareholders.

投影片 6 描述了我們兩年前開始與您分享的策略框架。自那時起，我們在電網現代化、生產更清潔能源和擴大天然氣基礎設施方面取得了重大進展。隨著產業變化步伐的加快，我們與利害關係人一起尋找解決方案。我們將繼續努力使成本回收機制現代化，以更好地與我們的投資保持一致。我們對這些領域的關注以及保持我們強大的安全和營運績效的歷史使我們能夠改變客戶體驗並為股東創造價值。

Let me share an update on the progress we've made executing our strategy. Moving to Slide 7, we continue to modernize our grid, which is the largest T&D system in the U.S., with over 300,000 line miles across our service areas. We have outlined grid improvement plans in each of our jurisdictions to increase reliability, improve security, offer more options to customers and enable distributed generation.

讓我分享一下我們執行策略的最新進展。轉到幻燈片 7，我們繼續對我們的電網進行現代化改造，這是美國最大的輸配電系統，在我們的服務區域內擁有超過 300,000 英里的線路。我們在每個管轄區域都制定了電網改善計劃，以提高可靠性、改善安全性、為客戶提供更多選擇並實現分散式發電。

From smart meters to self-healing grid technologies, we are establishing the foundation for a more intelligent delivery system that provides more information such as usage and outage alerts and minimizes power interruptions. More than 62% of our customers across all 6 states now have smart meters, keeping us on track to meet our goal of 100% installation by 2021.

從智慧電錶到自癒電網技術，我們正在為更智慧的傳輸系統奠定基礎，該系統可以提供更多信息，例如使用情況和停電警報，並最大限度地減少電力中斷。目前，我們遍布全美 6 個州的 62% 以上的客戶都已安裝智慧電錶，這使我們能夠實現到 2021 年實現 100% 安裝的目標。

We're also making greater use of battery storage. We announced plans to invest $500 million in storage in the Carolinas over the next 15 years, and we'll maximize the versatility of this technology. Beyond storing and dispatching energy, we will include other system advantages such as supporting electric vehicles. We have an EV pilot program in Florida and are advancing programs in other jurisdictions.

我們也正在更多地利用電池儲存。我們宣布計劃在未來 15 年內在卡羅來納州投資 5 億美元用於存儲，並將最大限度地發揮這項技術的多功能性。除了儲存和調度能源之外，我們還將包括其他系統優勢，例如支援電動車。我們在佛羅裡達州有一個電動車試點項目，並且正在其他司法管轄區推進該項目。

For regulatory treatment of our grid costs, we have rider mechanisms in the Midwest and a multiyear rate plan in Florida, both efficient methods for recovering our investments. We are also making progress to modernize how we recover costs associated with these investments in the Carolinas.

對於電網成本的監管處理，我們在中西部地區實行附加費機制，在佛羅裡達州實行多年期費率計劃，這兩種方法都是收回投資的有效方法。我們也正在不斷改進在卡羅來納州收回這些投資相關成本的方法。

In South Carolina, the commission approved our deferral request for certain grid investments. We have since filed rate cases for our DEC and DEP utilities. Our request includes multiyear rate plans to efficiently recover our grid improvement investments while providing rate certainty for customers.

在南卡羅來納州，委員會批准了我們對某些電網投資的延期請求。從那時起，我們就針對 DEC 和 DEP 公用事業提起了費率訴訟。我們的要求包括多年的費率計劃，以有效收回我們的電網改進投資，同時為客戶提供確定性的費率。

In North Carolina, the DEC rate case order provided additional guidance. It stated the commission encourages ongoing grid investments and staying up-to-date on the latest technology, but they lack statutory authority to approve our requested grid rider. This feedback is useful as we continue our stakeholder engagement during the legislative session of the general assembly currently underway. We are committed to advocating for reasonable solutions and we look forward to working collaboratively with stakeholders over the coming months. Our customers want a smarter energy future, and our grid improvements will deliver just that.

在北卡羅來納州，DEC 利率案件命令提供了額外指引。聲明中表示，委員會鼓勵持續的電網投資並掌握最新技術，但他們缺乏法定權力來批准我們所要求的電網附加條款。當我們在目前正在進行的大會立法會議期間繼續與利害關係人接觸時，這種回饋非常有用。我們致力於倡導合理的解決方案，並期待在未來幾個月與利害關係人合作。我們的客戶希望擁有更智慧的能源未來，而我們的電網改進將實現這一目標。

Moving to Slide 8. Let me share an update on how we're reducing our environmental footprint. We have outlined plans to reduce our carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. This target is consistent with the pathway to achieving a 2-degree scenario, and we are well on our way to meeting our goal. We've retired more than 6 gigawatts of coal generation since 2011, including 2 Crystal River units in Florida retired in December. Over the next 6 years, we plan to retire another 1,200 megawatts of coal generation and replace it with lower carbon alternatives such as renewables and natural gas-fired facilities.

轉到投影片 8。讓我分享一下我們如何減少對環境的影響的最新情況。我們已經制定了到 2030 年將碳排放量減少 40% 的計畫。這個目標與實現2度情境的路徑一致，我們正在順利實現這個目標。自 2011 年以來，我們已經淘汰了超過 6 千兆瓦的煤炭發電量，其中包括 12 月淘汰的佛羅裡達州水晶河 (Crystal River) 兩座機組。未來 6 年內，我們計劃再淘汰 1,200 兆瓦的煤炭發電，並以再生能源和天然氣發電設施等低碳替代品取而代之。

In 2018, we put both our W.S. Lee and Citrus County combined cycle plants into service, and our Western Carolinas Modernization Project is on track for a late 2019 in-service date. These plants enable us to serve our Carolinas and Florida customers with cleaner, more efficient energy.

2018 年，我們的 W.S. Lee 和 Citrus County 聯合循環電廠都投入使用，我們的西卡羅來納州現代化計畫也預計於 2019 年底投入使用。這些工廠使我們能夠為卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州的客戶提供更清潔、更有效率的能源。

In addition, our 11 nuclear units are fundamental to providing carbon-free generation to our Carolinas customers, and essential to our long-term carbon reduction goals. As we look forward, we are evaluating subsequent license renewals for these facilities for an additional 20 years to continue serving customers with the reliable service they expect.

此外，我們的 11 台核電機組對於向卡羅來納州的客戶提供無碳發電至關重要，對於我們實現長期的碳減排目標也至關重要。展望未來，我們正在評估這些設施的後續許可證續期，延長 20 年，以繼續為客戶提供他們期望的可靠服務。

And finally, we have a strong commitment to renewables, and continue to invest in both our regulated and commercial renewables businesses. In Florida, we are building up to 700 megawatts of solar under our existing settlement agreement, including our Hamilton plant that came online in late 2018. New rates were effective in January as approved under the solar base rate adjustment mechanism.

最後，我們對再生能源有著堅定的承諾，並將繼續投資於受監管的再生能源業務和商業再生能源業務。在佛羅裡達州，我們根據現有的和解協議建造高達 700 兆瓦的太陽能發電廠，其中包括 2018 年底上線的漢密爾頓發電廠。根據太陽能基準電價調整機制的批准，新電價於一月生效。

In North Carolina, we are actively participating in the ongoing RFP process for 680 megawatts of solar energy under House Bill 589. Our Regulated and Commercial Renewables businesses submitted competitive bids, and we expect to be notified of the results in March. Projects will be placed in service by January 2021.

在北卡羅來納州，我們正在積極參與眾議院第 589 號法案下正在進行的 680 兆瓦太陽能 RFP 流程。我們的受監管和商業再生能源業務提交了競爭性投標，我們預計將在三月收到結果通知。項目將於2021年1月投入使用。

Beyond the opportunity in North Carolina, our Commercial Renewables business is seeing strong demand for utility-scale wind and solar projects across the U.S. and is well positioned to capture a meaningful share. We have visibility to a strong pipeline of future projects, including over 1,000 megawatts in late stages of development.

除了北卡羅來納州的機會之外，我們的商業再生能源業務還看到美國各地對公用事業規模的風能和太陽能專案的強勁需求，並且有能力獲得可觀的份額。我們對未來專案有著清晰的認識，其中包括處於後期開發階段的 1,000 多兆瓦的專案。

This includes the recently announced 100-megawatt Lapetus solar project due to come online in the fourth quarter. The business successfully began using tax equity financing for new projects, including our Shoreham solar facility in New York that went into service last July. We will continue using tax equity to finance future projects.

其中包括最近宣布的將於第四季上線的 100 兆瓦 Lapetus 太陽能專案。該企業成功開始利用稅收股權融資來支持新項目，包括去年 7 月投入使用的紐約 Shoreham 太陽能發電廠。我們將繼續利用稅收公平來資助未來的計畫。

We also continue to seek a minority partner for our existing wind and solar portfolio as we look to recycle and reinvest capital from our assets. We have received interest from a number of bidders, and if we are able to reach an agreement, expect to announce the transaction this spring and close this summer. We expect to use proceeds to displace future debt issuance needs.

我們也將繼續為現有的風能和太陽能投資組合尋找少數股東合作夥伴，以期回收和再投資資產中的資本。我們已收到多位競標者的興趣，如果我們能夠達成協議，預計將於今年春季宣布交易並於今年夏季完成。我們期望利用收益來滿足未來的債務發行需求。

Moving to Slide 9. Natural gas will play a major role in a cleaner energy future, and we are leveraging the overlap between our electric and gas businesses to provide better service to our customers. Our LDCs have strong customer growth and with decoupling and other nonvolumetric mechanisms in place, this growth translates into higher margins. The gas utilities also have solid capital investment opportunities. Consistent with our priority to deliver safe, reliable service, we continue to invest in integrity management.

轉到投影片 9。天然氣將在未來更清潔的能源中發揮重要作用，我們正在利用電力和天然氣業務之間的重疊為客戶提供更好的服務。我們最不發達的國家 (LDC) 客戶成長強勁，透過脫鉤和其他非體積機制，這種成長轉化為更高的利潤率。天然氣公用事業也擁有穩固的資本投資機會。我們始終將提供安全、可靠的服務放在首位，並將繼續投資於誠信管理。

Piedmont is also providing the infrastructure to deliver gas for our dual-fuel projects at the Belews Creek and Marshall coal-fired facilities, which are expected to be completed over the next 3 years. We will use coal firing and natural gas at these plants in a similar project recently completed at the Rogers facility to reduce our carbon emissions and increase our flexibility to manage costs.

皮埃蒙特也為我們位於 Belews Creek 和 Marshall 燃煤電廠的雙燃料項目提供天然氣輸送基礎設施，預計這些項目將在未來 3 年內完工。我們將在這些工廠使用燃煤和天然氣，就像羅傑斯工廠最近完成的一個類似項目一樣，以減少碳排放並提高我們管理成本的靈活性。

Finally, we begin construction this year on our $250 million Robeson LNG facility, which we expect to begin serving customers in 2021. These projects demonstrate the complementary nature of our franchises and advantages of joint planning to provide savings to customers.

最後，我們今年開始建造價值 2.5 億美元的 Robeson LNG 設施，預計 2021 年開始為客戶提供服務。這些項目體現了我們的特許經營權的互補性和共同規劃的優勢，從而為客戶節省開支。

Moving to Slide 10, let me update you on the status of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. We remain committed to this project and the critically important benefits the pipeline brings to our region. Our Carolinas service territories are currently served by only 1 major interstate pipeline. ACP will bring needed diversity of supply by adding a second interstate pipeline with access to lower-cost Marcellus and Utica gas. It will provide system pressure to Piedmont's distribution network in the eastern part of North Carolina, allowing for cost-effective service to new customers. And ACP will provide important infrastructure in an underserved area, increasing economic developments in this part of the state.

前往第 10 張投影片，讓我向您介紹大西洋海岸管道的最新情況。我們將繼續致力於這個項目以及該管道為我們地區帶來的至關重要的利益。我們的卡羅來納服務區目前僅由 1 個主要州際管道提供服務。ACP 將增加第二條州際管道，並提供低成本的馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡天然氣，從而帶來所需的供應多樣性。它將為北卡羅來納州東部皮埃蒙特的配電網路提供系統壓力，從而為新客戶提供經濟高效的服務。ACP 將為服務不足的地區提供重要的基礎設施，促進該州這一地區的經濟發展。

Over the last year, we have made significant progress working with state and federal agencies to complete permitting for the project. In 2018, we received major permits from the North Carolina and Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality. We also recently received the air permit for the Buckingham Compressor Station in Central Virginia.

在過去的一年裡，我們與州和聯邦機構合作完成了該計畫的許可，並取得了重大進展。2018 年，我們獲得了北卡羅來納州和維吉尼亞州環境品質部門的主要許可。我們最近也獲得了維吉尼亞州中部白金漢壓縮機站的空氣許可證。

In the fourth quarter of 2018, there were a number of developments that impacted the project's schedule and costs. These developments include rulings from the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals on the biological opinion and the permit to cross under the Appalachian Trail. We are working diligently with our project partners to resolve these specific issues in the federal courts to resume construction as soon as possible. We expect the hearing at the Fourth Circuit related to the biological opinions to take place in May. It is possible this issue could be resolved by the third quarter, allowing construction to resume on Phase 1 of the pipeline route.

2018 年第四季度，發生了一些影響專案進度和成本的發展。這些進展包括第四巡迴上訴法院關於生物學意見和穿越阿巴拉契亞山道許可證的裁決。我們正在與專案合作夥伴密切合作，在聯邦法院解決這些具體問題，以盡快恢復施工。我們預計第四巡迴法院有關生物學意見的聽證會將於五月舉行。該問題有可能在第三季度得到解決，從而可以恢復管道第一階段的建設。

Separately, the Fourth Circuit vacated the U.S. Forest Service permit for the pipeline to cross under the Appalachian Trail, stating the agency lacks jurisdiction to approve the crossing. We strongly disagree with the court's position on this matter, which is counter to decades of pipeline crossings beneath the trail. ACP and the Department of Justice have requested an en banc review of this decision with the full 15-member court. We expect to hear in the next few weeks if the court will hear our petition In addition, various paths exist to address this issue including the judicial path already being pursued as well as legislative changes or federal administrative action.

另外，第四巡迴上訴法院撤銷了美國森林管理局頒發的穿越阿巴拉契亞山道的管道許可證，稱該機構無權批准穿越。我們強烈反對法院在此事上的立場，這與數十年來在小徑下方鋪設管道的做法相悖。ACP 和司法部已要求由 15 名法官組成的全體法官對該決定進行全庭審查。我們期望在接下來的幾週內聽到法院是否會接受我們的請願書。此外，解決這個問題有多種途徑，包括已經在採取的司法途徑以及立法變更或聯邦行政行動。

Given the current delays, we've adjusted estimates for project schedule and costs. Our overall time line assumes we're able to resume construction this fall and have the entire project in service in 2021. We will pursue putting the pipeline in service in phases, with the Phase 1 portion in service in late 2020. After successful conclusion of the Appalachian Trail matter, including a potential appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, the Phase 2 portion will be completed the following year. Should resolution of the challenges currently before the court proceed more quickly, this timeline could advance.

鑑於目前的延誤，我們調整了專案進度和成本的估算。我們的整體時間表假設我們能夠在今年秋天恢復施工，並於 2021 年讓整個專案投入使用。我們將分階段投入使用管道，第一階段將於 2020 年底投入使用。在成功解決阿巴拉契亞山道問題（包括可能向美國最高法院上訴）後，第二階段將於隔年完成。如果目前法庭面臨的挑戰能夠更快解決，這個時間表可能會提前。

This new timeline also entails an increase in project costs now estimated between $7 billion and $7.8 billion. And as a reminder, Duke's share of these costs is 47%. We will continue to provide updates throughout the balance of this year on this important project.

新的時間表還意味著項目成本將增加，目前估計在 70 億美元至 78 億美元之間。需要提醒的是，杜克大學承擔了這些成本的 47%。我們將在今年餘下時間繼續提供有關此重要項目的最新消息。

Before I turn it over to Steve, I want to close by recognizing the Duke team for another year of strong execution. We delivered on our 2018 commitment. We addressed challenges that came our way with 2 historic hurricanes and court actions on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, and we are clear on the growth and value we will deliver in the future. With a portfolio of well-positioned utilities supported by customer growth, a robust capital plan and constructive regulatory outcomes and a solid growing dividend, Duke Energy is positioned to deliver value to our customers and strong returns to our investors.

在將發言權交給史蒂夫之前，我想先表彰杜克大學團隊在另一年的出色表現。我們兌現了2018年的承諾。我們解決了兩次歷史性颶風和大西洋海岸輸油管訴訟所帶來的挑戰，我們清楚未來將實現的成長和價值。杜克能源擁有一系列定位良好的公用事業，並由客戶成長、穩健的資本計劃、建設性的監管結果和穩步增長的股息提供支持，因此，杜克能源能夠為客戶創造價值，並為投資者帶來豐厚的回報。

Now let me turn the call over to Steve.

現在讓我把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. 2018 was a solid year for the company. As shown on Slide 11, our full year adjusted earnings per share of $4.72 was in the top half of our original 2018 guidance range, and well within the narrowed range we provided in November. For the year, our electric utilities grew from higher pricing and rider revenues, including a partial year's contribution from the North Carolina rate cases. In addition, load growth was very strong, and we had positive results in O&M from our continued cost management efforts. Weather was favorable for the year but was partially offset by higher storm costs from a very active hurricane season. Finally, our electric utilities saw higher depreciation and amortization on a growing asset base.

謝謝，Lynn，大家早安。2018 年對公司來說是豐收的一年。如投影片 11 所示，我們全年調整後的每股收益為 4.72 美元，處於我們最初 2018 年指導範圍的上半部分，並且遠低於我們 11 月份提供的縮小範圍。今年，我們的電力事業因更高的定價和附加收入而成長，其中包括來自北卡羅來納州費率案例的部分年度貢獻。此外，負載成長非常強勁，我們透過持續的成本管理努力在營運和維護方面取得了積極的成果。今年的天氣狀況良好，但由於颶風季節非常活躍，風暴成本較高，部分抵消了這種影響。最後，我們的電力設施在不斷增長的資產基礎上出現了更高的折舊和攤提。

Our gas segment also contributed to year-over-year growth driven by Piedmont's margin contribution. And as Lynn mentioned, we closed on our first tax equity financed solar project this year, driving higher earnings in Commercial Renewables. As expected, a lower tax shield on holding company interest as a result of the Tax Act partially offset the growth at our operating segments. Overall, we are pleased with the strong execution across the company.

在皮埃蒙特利潤貢獻的推動下，我們的天然氣部門也實現了同比增長。正如林恩所提到的，我們今年完成了第一個稅收股權融資的太陽能項目，推動了商業再生能源收益的提高。正如預期的那樣，稅法實施後，控股公司權益的稅盾降低，部分抵消了我們經營部門的成長。總體而言，我們對整個公司的強勁執行力感到滿意。

Looking ahead, we've set our 2019 adjusted earnings per share guidance range at $4.80 to $5.20 per share with a $5 midpoint. This represents 6% growth over 2018 and is consistent with the guidance we previously provided, demonstrating our commitment to achieving our earnings objectives.

展望未來，我們將 2019 年調整後每股盈餘預期範圍設定為每股 4.80 美元至 5.20 美元，中間值為 5 美元。這比 2018 年增長了 6%，與我們之前提供的指導一致，表明了我們致力於實現盈利目標。

We've put together a strong plan for 2019. Earnings will be supported by our investment programs and associated recovery activities across our utilities as well as new projects in Commercial Renewables. In addition, we expect load growth, continued cost management efforts and ongoing AFUDC associated with the Atlantic Coast Pipeline to contribute to our results.

我們制定了 2019 年的強力計畫。我們的投資計劃和公用事業相關的復甦活動以及商業再生能源的新項目將為盈利提供支援。此外，我們預計負載成長、持續的成本管理努力以及與大西洋海岸管道相關的正在進行的 AFUDC 將有助於我們的表現。

Turning to Slide 12. We've extended our long-term earnings growth expectation of 4% to 6% per year through 2023. This is based off the midpoint of our 2019 EPS guidance range of $5 per share. Our growth over the next 5 years will be supported by our $37 billion growth capital plan, one of the largest in our industry. These investments will drive strong earnings-based growth for our electric and gas businesses, supporting our earnings growth objectives. Approximately half of our capital plan is committed to our energy grid investments at the electric utilities, including expansion of services to new customers and our ongoing efforts to strengthen the grid.

翻到幻燈片 12。我們已將長期獲利成長預期延長至 2023 年，即每年 4% 至 6%。這是基於我們 2019 年每股收益指引範圍的中點 5 美元。我們未來 5 年的成長將得到 370 億美元成長資本計畫的支持，這是我們行業中最大的成長資本計畫之一。這些投資將推動我們的電力和天然氣業務強勁的獲利成長，支持我們的獲利成長目標。我們的資本計畫中約有一半用於電力公司的能源電網投資，包括向新客戶提供服務的擴展以及我們為加強電網所做的持續努力。

We will also continue to invest in our regulated nuclear units and transition our generation fleet to cleaner energy sources such as natural gas and renewables. We plan to continue renewables development in both our electric utilities and commercial business. In commercial, we have increased our capital investment to reflect the strong demand for projects in this business and we'll continue to utilize tax equity financing on new development projects.

我們也將繼續投資受監管的核電機組，並將我們的發電機組轉變為天然氣和再生能源等更清潔的能源。我們計劃在電力事業和商業業務中繼續開發再生能源。在商業領域，我們增加了資本投資，以反映該業務項目的強勁需求，我們將繼續在新開發項目中利用稅收股權融資。

In our gas segment, our LDC investments will support new gas infrastructure such as the Robeson LNG project, new customer additions and integrity management. For our midstream business, ACP will continue to drive earnings growth. Our investments remain aligned with our vision to modernize the energy grid, generate cleaner energy and expand natural gas infrastructure. We will also strategically deploy capital, optimizing timing of our investments and minimizing regulatory lag.

在我們的天然氣領域，我們的 LDC 投資將支援新的天然氣基礎設施，例如 Robeson LNG 專案、新客戶的增加和完整性管理。對於我們的中游業務，ACP 將繼續推動獲利成長。我們的投資與我們現代化電網、生產更清潔能源和擴大天然氣基礎設施的願景保持一致。我們還將策略性地部署資本，優化投資時機並最大限度地減少監管滯後。

Turning to Slide 13. Let me highlight a few trends we're seeing across the business that further support our earnings objectives. As noted on previous calls, our service territories are greatly benefiting from the population migration to the southeast. Customer growth on our jurisdictions remain strong. And for the first time in 6 years, we saw an overall increase in usage per residential customer in our electric utilities. Within the commercial class, ongoing data center expansion and strength in hospitality and other services further supported growth.

翻到第 13 張投影片。讓我強調我們在整個業務中看到的一些趨勢，這些趨勢進一步支持了我們的獲利目標。如同先前的電話會議中所提到的，我們的服務區域因人口向東南部遷移而受益匪淺。我們管轄範圍內的客戶成長依然強勁。六年來，我們首次看到電力公司每位住宅用戶的用電量整體增加。在商業領域，資料中心的持續擴張以及飯店和其他服務業的實力進一步支持了成長。

These factors drove retail electric load growth of 0.9% in 2018. We are encouraged by these results and will monitor these trends moving forward. We continue to assume 0.5% annual retail load growth throughout the 5-year financial plan.

這些因素推動2018年零售電力負載成長0.9%。這些結果令我們感到鼓舞，我們將繼續關注這些趨勢的發展。我們繼續假設整個五年財務計畫中的零售負荷年增長率為 0.5%。

We also remain focused on managing our cost structure. We have demonstrated strong capabilities in this area over the last 5 years, offsetting inflation and absorbing an increase from the Piedmont acquisition to keep nonrecoverable O&M costs flat. Moving forward, we will continue implementing digital solutions to streamline and automate processes, including the use of new technology and data analytics to keep O&M flat over the next 5 years. Our cost management and capital optimization strategy is underpinned by our ability to align spend with customer needs and the expected regulatory calendar in order to minimize lag and earn our allowed ROEs.

我們也將繼續專注於管理我們的成本結構。在過去 5 年裡，我們在該領域展現了強大的能力，抵消了通貨膨脹，吸收了 Piedmont 收購帶來的成長，使不可收回的 O&M 成本保持穩定。展望未來，我們將繼續實施數位解決方案來簡化和自動化流程，包括使用新技術和數據分析在未來5年內保持運維穩定。我們的成本管理和資本優化策略以我們根據客戶需求和預期監管日程調整支出的能力為基礎，以最大限度地減少滯後並獲得允許的 ROE。

As you can see on Slide 14, our utilities maintain healthy ROEs, and we expect this to continue as we execute on our regulatory calendar and recover our investments. We have modern regulatory recovery mechanisms in place in many jurisdictions. In Florida, customers and investors benefit from the predictability of the multiyear rate plan, which went into effect January 1 and lasts through 2021. In Ohio, the commission approved our global settlement in late December, providing clarity for our grid improvement program through 2025. As we look ahead, we expect significant rate case activity in 2019. We intend to file for updated rates at our Indiana, Piedmont Natural Gas and DEP North Carolina utilities. We are also evaluating a rate case for DEC North Carolina. In South Carolina, we expect to complete the pending base rate cases that we filed last November. Evidentiary hearings are set for March 21 and April 11 for DEC and DEP, respectively. If approved by the commission, we requested rates effective June 1 for both cases. As Lynn mentioned earlier, we have asked the commission to approve multiyear rate plans to support our investment programs. We look forward to working with relevant stakeholders to achieve constructive outcomes for our customers and investors.

正如您在幻燈片 14 上看到的，我們的公用事業保持著健康的 ROE，我們預計，隨著我們執行監管日程並恢復投資，這種情況將繼續下去。我們在許多司法管轄區都建立了現代化的監管恢復機制。在佛羅裡達州，客戶和投資者受益於多年期利率計劃的可預測性，該計劃於 1 月 1 日生效，持續到 2021 年。在俄亥俄州，委員會於 12 月底批准了我們的全球解決方案，為我們到 2025 年的電網改進計劃提供了明確性。展望未來，我們預期 2019 年利率個案活動將十分活躍。我們打算向印第安納州、皮埃蒙特天然氣公司和北卡羅來納州 DEP 公用事業公司申請更新費率。我們也正在評估 DEC North Carolina 的費率案例。在南卡羅來納州，我們預計將完成去年 11 月提交的未決基準利率案件。DEC 和 DEP 的證據聽證會分別定於 3 月 21 日和 4 月 11 日舉行。如果獲得委員會批准，我們要求兩種情況的稅率均從 6 月 1 日起生效。正如林恩之前提到的，我們已經要求委員會批准多年期利率計劃以支持我們的投資計劃。我們期待與相關利害關係人合作，為我們的客戶和投資者取得建設性成果。

Moving to Slide 15. Let me walk you through our 2019 financing plan. We are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, which supports our credit ratings and ability to efficiently fund our $50 billion capital plan. Given a growing body of investment opportunities and hurricane-related financing needs as well as ACP delays, which particularly affect our 2020 outlook, we've modestly increased our expected equity financing by $150 million per year. We expect to issue our annual equity amounts through a combination of our DRIP and ATM programs.

移至投影片 15。讓我向您介紹我們的 2019 年融資計劃。我們致力於保持強勁的資產負債表，這支持我們的信用評級和有效資助我們 500 億美元資本計劃的能力。鑑於投資機會和颶風相關融資需求不斷增加以及 ACP 延誤（這尤其影響了我們 2020 年的前景），我們適度將預期股權融資額度每年增加 1.5 億美元。我們預計透過 DRIP 和 ATM 計畫結合的方式發行年度股權金額。

Our planned equity issuances, combined with our investment recovery strategy, support our credit metrics over the planning horizon. Also, recall that our FFO-to-debt ratio is further supported by our refundable AMT credits, which we expect to receive between 2019 and 2022. We believe this financing plan prudently manages the balance sheet to support Duke Energy's credit quality and maintain financial flexibility as we execute our long-term strategy.

我們計劃發行的股票，結合我們的投資恢復策略，將在規劃期間支持我們的信用指標。此外，請記住，我們的 FFO 與債務比率得到了可退還 AMT 抵免的進一步支持，我們預計將在 2019 年至 2022 年期間收到這些抵免。我們相信，該融資計劃審慎管理資產負債表，以支持杜克能源的信用品質並在我們執行長期策略時保持財務靈活性。

Shifting to Slide 16. We understand the value of the dividend to our shareholders. 2019 marks the 93rd consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend, and we remain committed to continue growing the dividend in the future. We finished 2018 with a dividend payout ratio above 75%. As we have said previously, our aspiration is to reduce that payout ratio over time, more in line with our peers, particularly given our robust capital plan. Over the near term, we will moderate our dividend growth to better position ourselves within a payout ratio range of 65% to 75%, trending to the midpoint of this range over the 5-year period. We believe this additional flexibility positions the company for sustainable dividend and earnings growth over the long-term while maintaining the strength of our balance sheet.

轉到投影片 16。我們了解股利對股東的價值。2019 年是我們連續第 93 年支付季度現金股息，我們仍致力於在未來繼續增加股息。2018 年，我們的股利支付率超過 75%。正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移降低派息率，使其與同行更加一致，特別是考慮到我們強勁的資本計劃。短期內，我們將調整股息成長速度，使派息率處於 65% 至 75% 的範圍內，並在 5 年內趨向於該範圍的中點。我們相信，這種額外的靈活性將使公司在長期內實現可持續的股息和獲利成長，同時保持資產負債表的強勁。

Before we open it up for questions, let me turn to Slide 17. Our attractive dividend yield, coupled with earnings growth from investments in our regulated utilities, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders. We have a history of operational excellence and an achievable financial plan, making Duke Energy a solid long-term investment opportunity. We are positioned to deliver results for both customers and shareholders and are confident in the plan we have for 2019 and beyond.

在我們開始提問之前，請容許我翻到第 17 張投影片。我們具有吸引力的股息殖利率，加上對我們監管的公用事業的投資收益成長，為股東提供了極具吸引力的風險調整回報。我們擁有卓越的營運歷史和可實現的財務計劃，這使得杜克能源成為一個穩固的長期投資機會。我們致力於為客戶和股東創造業績，並對我們 2019 年及以後的計劃充滿信心。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

好了，我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question from Greg Gordon, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）現在我們將回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 Greg Gordon 提出的第一個問題。

A couple questions. When I'm looking at the earnings guidance, one, I noticed that there's a significant increase in expected earnings contribution from the Commercial Renewables segment '19 over '18. So can you talk about how you're driving that? Is that from taking in ITCs? Or is that just a big step-up in expected investment and getting plants online? And then the second question as it relates to that, is if I look at the overall expectation for what AFUDC earnings were going to be from ACP in '19 before the delay versus now, how much of a change was that, that you had to overcome?

幾個問題。當我查看獲利預測時，首先，我注意到 2019 年商業再生能源部門的預期獲利貢獻較 2018 年有顯著增加。那麼你能談談你是如何實現這一目標的嗎？這是因為吸收了 ITC 嗎？或者這只是預期投資和工廠上線的大幅增加？與此相關的第二個問題是，如果我看一下延遲之前與現在相比，AFUDC 在 19 年從 ACP 獲得的收益的總體預期，那麼您必須克服的變化有多大？

Sure, Greg. Thanks. On Commercial Renewables, we have just seen a lot of market opportunity. And as we look back at our history in this business, there are times customers not only have an interest in renewables, but there is interest in pursuing the tax credits. To a great extent, we've seen a bit of a cyclical nature to this and has had a good track record in pursuing and achieving wins with a number of these projects. So you're seeing the benefit of that in 2019. It includes both wind and solar projects. And we have the majority of what is reflected in 2019 guidance already committed based upon work that the team has had underway in 2018. So I think about the portfolio of businesses that we operate, commercial is a part of them. And when we have an opportunity to pursue growth, we do that and you're seeing that in 2019. I think when you look at allowance for funds, one of the other things to keep in mind on allowance for funds trend is we did put a large capital project in service at the end of '18, that's Citrus. And so some of the trend line that you see between 2018 and 2019 is a result of that in-service date of that generating station. I think in terms of Atlantic Coast Pipeline, there's no question that even as early as 4 months ago, we were expecting more capital to be deployed in '19. You may remember when we talked in November, we were projecting an in-service in '19 for part of the project and the rest in 2020. So we have a slowdown in that spending that resulted from some of the court decisions in December, and we have reflected that in our guidance. We continue to remain committed to the plan and will work through this, committed to the project, but I think we have some work to do around the core challenges in order to get construction going again.

當然，格雷格。謝謝。在商業再生能源方面，我們看到了許多市場機會。當我們回顧我們在這個行業的歷史時，我們發現有時客戶不僅對再生能源感興趣，而且對追求稅收抵免感興趣。在很大程度上，我們已經看到了其中的一些週期性，並且在追求和實現這些項目的成功方面有著良好的記錄。因此，您將在 2019 年看到它的好處。其中包括風能和太陽能項目。根據團隊在 2018 年所進行的工作，我們已經承諾了 2019 年指導中所反映的大部分內容。因此，我認為我們經營的業務組合中，商業是其中的一部分。當我們有機會追求成長時，我們就會這樣做，而您會在 2019 年看到這一點。我認為，當您查看資金準備金時，要記住的另一件事是，我們確實在 18 年底投入了一個大型資本項目，那就是 Citrus。因此，您在 2018 年至 2019 年之間看到的部分趨勢線是該發電站投入使用日期的結果。我認為就大西洋海岸管道而言，毫無疑問，早在 4 個月前，我們就預計 19 年將投入更多資金。您可能還記得，我們在 11 月談話時，計劃在 2019 年投入使用部分項目，其餘部分將在 2020 年投入使用。因此，由於 12 月的一些法院判決，我們的支出有所放緩，我們已將這一情況反映在我們的指導中。我們將繼續致力於該計劃，並將致力於該項目，但我認為我們還需要圍繞核心挑戰做一些工作，才能讓建設再次開始。

Okay. Got it. Just a follow-up on the first answer. So the pace of activity is higher. That's fantastic. Congrats on that, on the renewables segment. But is the earnings contribution partially driven by monetization of tax credits either ITCs or through tax equity? And is that what's driving the big increase?

好的。知道了。只是第一個答案的後續。因此活動的節奏更快。太棒了。祝賀再生能源領域取得這項成就。但是，收益貢獻是否部分是由稅收抵免貨幣化（ITC）或稅收公平所推動的？這就是推動大幅成長的原因嗎？

Sure. There's certainly tax equity included in those results, Greg. You may have -- may recall that we've been talking about tax equity as we had more clarity from tax reform on what our own tax position was. We have been pursuing tax equity. We closed our first project in July and have continued and plan to continue using that technique as we go forward. And so what you see in '19 is not only a combination -- not only investment tax credit related to solar but there's also wind in those numbers.

當然。格雷格，這些結果肯定包含稅收公平。您可能還記得，我們一直在談論稅收公平，因為稅制改革讓我們更清楚地了解了我們自己的稅務狀況。我們一直在追求稅收公平。我們在七月結束了我們的第一個項目，並且一直持續併計劃在未來繼續使用該技術。因此，您在 19 年看到的不僅僅是一個組合——不僅有與太陽能相關的投資稅收抵免，而且還有風能。

We will take our next question from Michael Weinstein of Credit Suisse.

我們將回答瑞士信貸的邁克爾溫斯坦 (Michael Weinstein) 的下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on Greg's question, following on Greg's question. So when you've taken tax equity, you're booking that as earnings? Is that true?

這只是對 Greg 問題的後續，是對 Greg 問題的後續。那麼，當您獲得稅收權益時，您會將其記為收益嗎？這是真的嗎？

Steve, do you want to talk about tax equity?

史蒂夫，你想談談稅收公平嗎？

Yes. The utilization of tax equity in the financing does guide you to certain accounting rules. And on most of these renewable projects, whether it's tax equity or not, a lot of the recognition of the earnings is driven by the tax benefits, which is in the early stages of the project. Tax equity doesn't change any of that. The tax equity structures, however, do vary in how quickly income is recognized in solar and wind projects. So it's not all upfront necessarily. But most of these renewables projects, certainly with tax equity and also without, are going to have earnings recognition in the early years, depending on PTCs or ITCs.

是的。融資中稅務權益的利用確實會引導您遵循某些會計規則。對於大多數再生能源專案來說，無論是否具有稅收公平性，大部分的收益確認都是由稅收優惠驅動的，而這還處於專案的早期階段。稅收公平不會改變任何這一點。然而，稅收公平結構在太陽能和風能項目的收入確認速度上確實有所不同。所以這不一定是全部預付的。但大多數再生能源項目，無論是否有稅收公平，都將在早期獲得盈利確認，這取決於 PTC 或 ITC。

Got you. Is there -- can you quantify how much of the $230 million is from tax equity and tax credits? And then a related question to that is the guidance going forward of 4% to 6% for 2023, what happens to the Commercial Renewables segment during that period? Is this a contributor to that 4% to 6%, or as tax credits perhaps fall off, is that a subtractor from it? And maybe you can fill us in on that.

明白了。您能量化一下這 2.3 億美元中有多少來自稅收公平和稅收抵免嗎？與此相關的一個問題是，2023 年的成長預期為 4% 至 6%，在此期間商業再生能源部門會發生什麼情況？這是 4% 至 6% 的貢獻因素嗎？或者，隨著稅收抵免的減少，這會成為減損因素？也許您可以告訴我們這一點。

Yes. Mike, I would respond to the first part of the question by saying tax attributes are an important part of the net income for anyone who invests in renewables. So you should think about it that way. And I think over the 5-year period, we see Commercial Renewables, based on the pipeline that's in front of us, having a more meaningful impact in the early part of the plan. And then I would think about, over the longer term, our approach being opportunistic. Again, if we see demand, we'll pursue it. But we really look at this business as being complementary to the 4% to 6% growth that we're driving in the utilities.

是的。麥克，對於問題的第一部分，我想說，稅收屬性是任何投資再生能源的人的淨收入的重要組成部分。所以你應該這樣想。我認為，從我們面前的管道來看，在未來五年內，商業再生能源將在計劃初期產生更有意義的影響。然後我會思考，從長遠來看，我們的方法是機會主義的。再說一次，如果我們看到需求，我們就會去追求它。但我們確實將這項業務視為對我們在公用事業領域推動的 4% 至 6% 成長的補充。

Another -- just one more question on earnings growth. Are you -- did you actually quantify how much of the AFUDC drop-off in 2019 is impacting earnings from the Atlantic Coast Pipeline?

另外一個問題是關於獲利成長的。您是否真的量化了 2019 年 AFUDC 收入下降對大西洋海岸管道收益的影響有多大？

All of the AFUDC -- I'm not sure I understand the question, Michael. Could you do that again?

所有 AFUDC——我不確定我是否理解了這個問題，邁克爾。你能再做一次嗎？

Yes, what's the cents per share impact of that?

是的，這對每股影響是多少美分？

It's approximately $0.05 that we're seeing from the lower spend pattern that we're estimating.

從我們估計的較低支出模式來看，該數字約為 0.05 美元。

This is Atlantic Coast Pipeline.

這是大西洋海岸管道。

On Atlantic Coast Pipeline, that's correct. And a rule of thumb on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline is that it provides about $0.05 of earnings -- AFUDC earnings per quarter. But we're seeing the slower spend impact by about $0.05, and we're working through that with our guidance, the $5 we've accounted for that.

關於大西洋海岸管道，這是正確的。大西洋海岸輸油管的一個經驗法則是，它每季提供約 0.05 美元的收益——AFUDC 收益。但我們看到支出放緩的影響約為 0.05 美元，我們正在根據我們的指導來解決這個問題，我們已經將這 5 美元計入其中。

So you said that the rate base growth is 6% going forward. You used to talk about 7% as a result of tax reform from the return of excess deferred taxes. Is that still a possibility? Is there still -- is it just that the return of excess deferred taxes is slower in the early years and that's why you're still at 6%? Or is 7% still possible?

所以您說未來利率基數成長率是 6%。您曾經談到，由於稅改，超額遞延稅款的返還帶來了 7% 的收益。還有這種可能嗎？是否仍然存在——是不是因為早年超額遞延稅款的返還速度較慢，所以才仍然保持在 6%？或者 7% 仍有可能嗎？

Mike, I think there's always upside potential on regulated investment. We just progressed our guidance a year forward. And 6%, we believe, is a good planning assumption. We have -- we focus on the '19, '20, '21 most heavily, and we'll continue to develop and originate investments into '21 -- or I'm sorry, '22, '23. But I think 6% is a really solid plan, and we do have upside potential.

麥克，我認為受監管的投資總是有上行潛力。我們剛剛將指導提前了一年。我們認為，6% 是一個很好的規劃假設。我們最關注的是 2019 年、2020 年和 2021 年，我們將繼續開發和開展對 21 年——或者對不起，22 年、23 年——的投資。但我認為 6% 是一個非常可靠的計劃，而且我們確實有上行潛力。

And Mike, I think some of the math here comes into play. When you've got a starting year that does not have the effect of tax reform in it and then you've got a change, such as we saw in the out-years, that can lead to a higher percent. It depends on what you're starting. If you're starting with a year that has the impact of tax reform layering in throughout the period, that can affect the percent. But as Lynn said, our early years have very strong growth. Typically, the out-years we develop as we move along. 6% is a good number for our rate base growth.

麥克，我認為這裡的一些數學知識起了作用。當你的起始年份沒有受到稅收改革的影響，然後你又看到了變化，就像我們在未來幾年看到的那樣，這可能會導致更高的百分比。這取決於你開始做什麼。如果從某一年開始，稅改的影響會在整個期間不斷顯現，那麼這可能會影響百分比。但正如林恩所說，我們早年發展非常強勁。通常，隨著我們不斷前進，未來幾年也會跟著發展。對於我們的利率基數成長來說，6% 是一個不錯的數字。

We will now take our next question from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank.

我們現在將回答德意志銀行的喬納森·阿諾德提出的下一個問題。

Question. Just on -- I understand you've rebased the starting point for the 4% to 6% growth to $5, and -- but you were saying before that you expected to sort of dip below off of the original base and then kind of get sort of to the high end at the end of the plan. I did -- it doesn't seem to be what you're saying now off the new base, so I just want to clarify whether we should still be thinking that or whether it's more sort of middle of the range would be a core assumption from this new base.

問題。剛才——我知道您已經將 4% 到 6% 增長的起點重新調整為 5 美元——但您之前說過，您預計會低於原來的基數，然後在計劃結束時達到高端。我確實這樣做了——這似乎不是你現在在新基礎上所說的，所以我只是想澄清一下我們是否仍然應該這樣認為，或者是否應該從這個新基礎上得出一個更中間的範圍的核心假設。

Jonathan, we committed to delivering at the low end of the range for '19, and we've done that by hitting the $5. And then we set 4% to 6% off of $5, which is within that guidance range we had talked about previously. But certainly the midpoint has been affected by the near-term uncertainty around Atlantic Coast Pipeline, both the scheduled delay and the cost increase. And so as we look at 2019, if Atlantic Coast Pipeline goes quickly, we do still have the potential to get to the high end of the range in '20, but we believe a planning assumption within that range is more realistic until we can work through these legal challenges. So we just thought it was appropriate given where we are with that project to reset the base, but I think there's a great deal of overlap between what we've given you here and where we were previously. And we continue to believe strongly that we have a strong growth plan that we've put in front of you.

喬納森，我們致力於在 19 年提供低端產品，並且我們已經通過達到 5 美元的價格實現了這一目標。然後我們將價格設定為 5 美元的 4% 到 6% 的折扣，這在我們之前談到的指導範圍內。但中點肯定受到了大西洋海岸管道近期不確定性的影響，包括計劃的延誤和成本的增加。因此，當我們展望 2019 年時，如果大西洋海岸管道快速推進，我們仍然有可能在 20 年達到該範圍的高端，但我們認為，在我們能夠解決這些法律挑戰之前，在該範圍內的規劃假設更為現實。因此，我們認為，考慮到我們目前在該專案上的進展情況，重置基地是合適的，但我認為我們在這裡提供的內容與我們之前的情況有很多重疊。我們仍然堅信，我們已經為您制定了強有力的成長計劃。

Okay. And then just a quick housekeeping one. I noticed you had a fairly sizable write-off at the Citrus County in the fourth quarter. Why would that be?

好的。然後只是一個快速的整理工作。我注意到你們在第四季度在 Citrus County 有相當大的一筆註銷。為什麼會這樣呢？

We have -- we're in the middle of a contractual -- finalizing a contractual dispute with Fluor. Jonathan, you may have seen some press coverage of this as they've been finalizing that project. We are in the middle of this, and from an accounting standpoint, recognized exposure. But that isn't the end of the story. We still have legal remedies that we're pursuing that we would expect to resolve in 2019.

我們正在與 Fluor 解決合約糾紛。喬納森，你可能已經看到了一些有關此事的新聞報道，因為他們已經完成了這個項目。我們正處於這一階段，從會計角度來看，我們已經認識到了風險。但這並不是故事的結局。我們仍在尋求法律補救措施，預計將在 2019 年解決。

Okay. And then just one other thing. It's been reported, I think, in the press and also citing a Duke spokesperson that you're one of the bidders pursuing Santee Cooper. I just wonder if you could speak to that at all and specifically what your criteria would be. And just remembering back to Piedmont, you'd talk about it being very unique and adjacent and therefore something that was a very high priority for the company. So I'm just curious if you have any comments.

好的。還有一件事。我認為，媒體已經報道過，杜克大學發言人也表示，你是競標桑蒂庫柏的競標者之一。我只是想知道您是否可以談談這個問題以及您的標準具體是什麼。回想一下皮埃蒙特，你會說它非常獨特，而且毗鄰，因此對公司來說非常優先考慮。所以我只是好奇您是否有任何評論。

Jonathan, throughout the process that South Carolina has undertaken, our objective has been to support the state. And the state has called for and been actively seeking investment interest in Santee Cooper. We are one of the 4 parties that has met the qualifications. We have submitted a couple of proposals for the state to consider, but I would also say this is very early stage. There's a law that needs to be passed. The general assembly needs to make some decisions, and that could take some time here in 2019. So we remain committed to our organic growth plan and supporting the state of South Carolina as they look at alternatives.

喬納森，在南卡羅來納州採取的整個過程中，我們的目標一直是支持州。該州一直在呼籲並積極尋求對桑蒂庫珀的投資興趣。我們是符合資格的四個政黨之一。我們已經提交了幾項提案供州政府考慮，但我還想說這還處於非常早期的階段。有一項法律需要通過。大會需要做出一些決定，這可能需要 2019 年的一些時間。因此，我們將繼續致力於我們的有機成長計劃，並支持南卡羅來納州尋找替代方案。

We will now take our next question from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.

我們現在來回答古根漢合夥公司的 Shar Pourreza 提出的下一個問題。

Most of my questions were answered. But Steve, let me ask you because you talked about sort of the drag from sort of the AFUDC and the pushing out of ACP. Does sort of your current outlook include refunds from the unprotected ADITs that could potentially have an effect of actually sort of raising the rate base. I'm kind of curious -- I mean, obviously, we look at the guidance now and the rebasing, it looks somewhat a little bit lower than the sort of the prior guide. How is sort of the refunds of unprotected ADITs -- how does that sort of play into the growth picture?

我的大部分問題都得到了答案。但史蒂夫，我想問你一下，因為你談到了 AFUDC 的阻力以及 ACP 的退出。您目前的展望是否包括來自未受保護的 ADIT 的退款，這可能會實際提高利率基數。我有點好奇——我的意思是，顯然，我們現在看一下指導和重新調整，它看起來比之前的指導略低一些。未受保護的 ADIT 的退款情況如何—這對成長前景有何影響？

I think we have -- well, yes, Shar, we have worked with our regulatory commissions in the various states on the handling of income tax refunds related to the Tax Act and the excess deferred tax flowbacks, and that's incorporated into our plan. It will vary per jurisdiction. Some states are giving it back over a 10-year period, some states are offsetting it with other types of costs, such as storm costs in Florida. But that's being weaved through the plan, and that does have the impact of raising rate base as well. And we do have that as a growth item in our rate base that we've talked about in the past. So that's in there.

我認為我們已經——嗯，是的，沙爾，我們已經與各州的監管委員會合作處理與稅法相關的所得稅退稅和超額遞延稅款回流，這已納入我們的計劃。它會因司法管轄區而異。一些州將在 10 年內返還這筆費用，而一些州將用其他類型的成本來抵消這筆費用，例如佛羅裡達州的風暴成本。但這正貫穿整個計劃，也確實對提高利率基數產生了影響。我們確實將其作為我們過去討論過的利率基礎中的一個成長項目。這就是它。

Okay, so that's in there. Okay. And Lynn, I know you're working through legislation around sort of grid mod and how to sort of think about potentially getting a rider mechanism. But assuming legislation doesn't sort of time the way you're anticipating, you guys are going to be in for serial filings on an annual basis. So how should we sort of think about the spending of that profile assuming that you don't get legislation? Maybe the commission approves trackers, but if you don't and you're going to be in rate cases, do you see sort of any sort of downside to that grid mod spend?

好的，就是這樣。好的。林恩，我知道你正在研究有關電網模式的立法以及如何考慮獲得附加機制。但假設立法的時間安排不如你們預期的那樣，那麼你們將每年都要進行連續提交。那麼，假設您沒有獲得立法，我們應該如何考慮該概況的支出？也許委員會批准了追蹤器，但如果你不批准，而你又要面臨利率問題，你是否認為電網改造支出會有什麼不利影響？

Shar, I think the capital we've put in front of you is capital that we would spend under the rate case scenario as well. So we have contemplated both scenarios in our long-term guidance. So I don't see a lot of downside to growth spend as a result of what you're describing.

沙爾，我認為我們擺在你面前的資本也是我們在利率情境下會花費的資本。因此，我們在長期指導中考慮了這兩種情況。因此，根據您所描述的情況，我認為成長支出不會帶來太多負面影響。

Okay, got it. And just lastly on Santee Cooper. Obviously, the bids are confidential, but can you just maybe elaborate whether there would be an interest to do a management service agreement around that system versus an outright acquisition?

好的，明白了。最後談談桑蒂庫柏。顯然，投標是保密的，但您能否詳細說明是否有興趣圍繞該系統簽署管理服務協議，而不是直接收購？

So Shar, we have looked at both of those and have put proposals on the table that would accomplish both objectives.

所以 Shar，我們已經研究了這兩個問題，並提出了可以實現這兩個目標的建議。

We will now take our next question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Merrill Lynch.

我們現在將回答美林證券的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 提出的下一個問題。

So just a few clarifications on some prior questions here. Just starting out on the Commercial Renewables spending plan, is that mostly contemplated to be solar just as we start to calibrate our models on future tax credits, obviously, ITC versus PTC? And then also just given the differing accounting treatment, that's a 1 year accounting on the ITC, not 5-year, right?

這裡僅對一些先前的問題進行一些澄清。我們剛開始製定商業再生能源支出計劃，是否主要考慮太陽能，就像我們開始校準未來稅收抵免模型一樣，顯然是 ITC 還是 PTC？然後，考慮到不同的會計處理，這是 ITC 的 1 年會計，而不是 5 年，對嗎？

So let me catch up on that for a moment, Julien. There's a mix of solar and wind in both '19 and '20. I would say a little heavier of solar in '19 but a mix of both in both years. And under the accounting model that Steve was talking about before, you do have an opportunity for a range of recognition 2 years to 7, I think, on solar. And then PTC -- so Steve, you want to add to that?

那麼，朱利安，讓我稍微聊聊這個問題。2019 年和 2020 年都將混合使用太陽能和風能。我想說 19 年太陽能會稍微多一些，但接下來兩年太陽能和太陽能都會混合使用。根據史蒂夫之前談到的會計模型，我認為，你確實有機會在太陽能領域獲得 2 到 7 年的確認期。然後是 PTC——史蒂夫，你想補充嗎？

Well, that's right. What Lynn referred to is correct. You can structure the solar deals with tax equities so that the income recognition can be spread over 1 to 7 years, as an example. And we'll do what suits us and makes the most sense to us in that situation. The wind projects, the PTC recognition is typically over a 7-year period.

嗯，沒錯。Lynn 提到的都是正確的。例如，您可以建立具有稅收公平性的太陽能交易，以便收入確認可以分散在 1 至 7 年內。在那種情況下，我們會做最適合自己、最有意義的事。對於風電計畫來說，PTC 認證期限一般為 7 年。

Right. And just to go back to the question about what's reflected in the outlook but maybe squaring the last question. The procurement that you talked about, I believe in North Carolina earlier up to 800 megawatts, is that contemplated in the outlook that you're disclosing now, first? And then separately with respect to that, also just curious, is that all outside or within the utility just with respect to where you're allowed or intend to participate from?

正確的。回到關於前景反映什麼的問題，但也許要解決最後一個問題。您談到的採購，我相信北卡羅來納州早些時候的採購量高達 800 兆瓦，這是否在您現在披露的前景中有所考慮？然後單獨就此而言，同樣好奇的是，這一切都是在公用事業之外還是在公用事業之內，只是就您被允許或打算參與的地方而言？

So on HB -- HB 589, I think, Julien, is your question for North Carolina. So we have over the 5-year period put some additional capital in Commercial Renewables reflecting the potential impact of 589, and all of that capital is sitting in Commercial Renewables. So you may -- if you compare back to last year, you'll see about $1 billion more, which is reflecting of not only market conditions, but also what we hope to pursue in North Carolina.

因此，關於 HB——HB 589，朱利安，我認為這是針對北卡羅來納州的問題。因此，我們在 5 年期間向商業再生能源投入了一些額外資本，以反映 589 的潛在影響，所有這些資本都投入了商業再生能源。因此，如果與去年相比，你會發現資金增加了約 10 億美元，這不僅反映了市場狀況，也反映了我們希望在北卡羅來納州實現的目標。

Got it. And then one quick clarification here. The ACP range that you've delineated, $7 billion to $7.8 billion, I think that's slightly different than what Dominion talked about at $7 billion to $7.5 billion. I know this is a little picky. But just curious, any slight changes? Or is this more about the configuration that you guys are thinking about?

知道了。然後在這裡快速澄清一下。您所劃定的 ACP 範圍是 70 億美元至 78 億美元，我認為這與 Dominion 所說的 70 億美元至 75 億美元略有不同。我知道這有點挑剔。但只是好奇，有什麼細微的變化嗎？或者這更多是關於你們正在考慮的配置？

Julien, I appreciate that question because it's right on top of what Dominion disclosed. They just talked about it in 2 phases. So $7 billion to $7.5 billion assuming a more timely resolution of the Appalachian Trail. If the Appalachian Trail goes to the Supreme Court, they set another couple of $100 million. All we did was put the whole range together. Yes, right on top of Dominion.

朱利安，我很感謝這個問題，因為它正好位於 Dominion 披露的內容之上。他們只是分兩個階段討論了這個問題。因此，假設阿巴拉契亞山道問題能夠更及時地解決，那麼資金規模將達到 70 億至 75 億美元。如果阿巴拉契亞山道案上訴至最高法院，他們又將設定數億美元。我們所做的就是把整個範圍整合在一起。是的，就在 Dominion 之上。

We will now take our next question from Praful Mehta of Citibank.

我們現在來回答花旗銀行的 Praful Mehta 提出的下一個問題。

So maybe with all the earnings questions addressed mostly, maybe we'd touch on credit. As we look at Slide 15, firstly, you talked about equity issuance is going up a little bit through the plan. Is that driven by pressure from the agencies to kind of shore up the credit a little bit? Or can you just give us a little bit more color of what specifically was driving the increase in equity need?

因此，在基本解決所有收入問題後，我們或許會談及信貸問題。當我們觀看幻燈片 15 時，首先，您談到股票發行量將透過該計劃略有增加。這是不是受到各機構的壓力，要求稍微鞏固信貸？或者您能否向我們詳細介紹一下推動股權需求增加的具體原因？

Yes. So Praful, we are committed to our ratings. As you know, we've demonstrated that with our response to tax reform. And as we look at the increase in costs in Atlantic Coast Pipeline that we're projecting as well as the fact that we spent $1 billion this year on storm response, we thought it was appropriate to bring some additional equity into the plan in the form of the DRIP and ATM. This gives us some flexibility for uncertainty. And we've also talked about the fact that we will consider pursuing securitization of the storm costs as well, which we think is positive for credit. So all of this is within the context of maintaining the commitment to our balance sheet while also responding to impacts to the business.

是的。所以 Praful，我們致力於我們的評級。正如你們所知，我們對稅改的回應已經證明了這一點。當我們看到大西洋海岸管道成本預計增加，以及我們今年在風暴應對上花費了 10 億美元時，我們認為以 DRIP 和 ATM 的形式為該計劃注入一些額外資金是合適的。這為我們應對不確定性提供了一些彈性。我們也談到，我們將考慮將風暴成本證券化，我們認為這對信貸有利。因此，所有這些都是在維持對資產負債表的承諾的同時應對對業務的影響。

Got you. That's super helpful, Lynn. So in terms of the FFO-to-debt metric then, as I look at again Slide 15, the AMT credit I'm assuming is helping support the credit and the FFO-to-debt through the 2020 time frame, but it seems to be going up even though the AMT is rolling off by '22. So I just wanted to understand like what's driving the uptick in FFO-to-debt in that '21 to '23 time frame even though AMT is, in fact, rolling off during that same period?

明白了。這非常有幫助，Lynn。因此，就 FFO 與債務比率指標而言，當我再次查看幻燈片 15 時，我假設 AMT 信貸有助於在 2020 年的時間範圍內支持信貸和 FFO 與債務比率，但即使 AMT 在 22 年之前減少，它似乎仍在上升。因此，我只是想了解，儘管 AMT 實際上在同一時期正在減少，但在 21 年至 23 年期間，是什麼原因推動了 FFO 與債務的比率上升？

Sure. Steve, you want to take that?

當然。史蒂夫，你想接受這個嗎？

Sure. Praful, a couple of things are happening here. Number one, we've got the expiration or the conclusion of the heavy spend on coal ash in the Carolinas that will end essentially in '19. And then that spend level will drop. So as you get coal ash expenditures built into rates and the actual cash expenditures go down, that can certainly help cash flows. In Florida, we've had in 2018 3 generation projects, Citrus County, Osprey, Hines chillers, going to rates. So those will turn into cash annuities as well. In 2019, we will complete the Western Carolinas modernization project and get that into rates, and that's over $1 billion of investments. So we've got a number of activities that are aligned there. Additionally, when Atlantic Coast Pipeline goes into service, that will in 2021, in that type time frame, when that's completed that will turn into a strong cash annuity. So we've got some big projects rolling through rates that will help push up FFO.

當然。Praful，這裡發生了幾件事。首先，卡羅來納州在煤灰方面的大量支出即將到期或結束，這基本上將在 2019 年結束。然後支出水平就會下降。因此，當你將煤灰支出計入費率並且實際現金支出下降時，這肯定有助於現金流。在佛羅裡達州，我們在 2018 年有 3 個發電項目，Citrus County、Osprey、Hines 冷水機組，正在定價。所以這些也將變成現金年金。2019 年，我們將完成西卡羅來納州現代化項目並將其納入費率，該項目的投資將超過 10 億美元。因此，我們在那裡開展了一系列活動。此外，當大西洋海岸管道投入使用時，也就是 2021 年，在那個時間範圍內，當它完工時，它將變成一筆豐厚的現金年金。因此，我們有一些大型專案的滾動利率將有助於提高 FFO。

Got you. Perfect. And then just finally, just clarifying, in 2020, the increase in HoldCo debt, is that driven by the increase in Commercial Renewable investment that's funded by parent debt? Or is there something else driving the 33% to 34% HoldCo debt in 2020 time frame?

明白了。完美的。最後，需要澄清的是，2020 年 HoldCo 債務的增加，是否是由母公司債務資助的商業再生能源投資的增加所推動的？或有其他因素導致 2020 年 HoldCo 債務比例達到 33% 至 34%？

Well, I think you've got a couple of things going on here. You've got certainly the delay in ACP. So that put some pressure there. We've got expansion of the Commercial Renewables as well, those types of issues. As we have lag on recovering hurricane costs of over $1 billion, that can put some stress on the holding company debt as well. So those are some things I'd point to.

嗯，我認為這裡有幾件事正在發生。您的 ACP 確實出現了延遲。所以這給他們帶來了一些壓力。我們也擴大了商業再生能源，諸如此類的問題。由於我們在恢復超過 10 億美元的颶風損失方面存在滯後，這也會給控股公司的債務帶來一些壓力。這些就是我想指出的一些事情。

Yes. And Praful, I wouldn't point to any single item. I think this is kind of just the financing of the whole picture including the results of '18 and what we're looking at for '19.

是的。Praful，我不會指出任何單一項目。我認為這只是整個融資情況，包括 2018 年的結果以及我們對 2019 年的展望。

We will now take our next question from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.

我們現在將回答高盛的邁克爾·拉皮德斯提出的下一個問題。

One or two just minor items when I think about the Commercial Renewable business. How do you think about what's the right scale and size of this business, meaning relative to everything else when you're thinking longer term and kind of what you want that business to look like relative to the core regulated subsidiaries?

當我考慮商業再生能源業務時，有一兩件事只是次要的。當您從長遠角度考慮時，您如何看待這項業務的正確規模和大小，即相對於其他一切而言，以及您希望這項業務相對於核心監管子公司而言是什麼樣子？

Michael, I would say it's complementary. But given the size of the regulated businesses we operate on electric and gas, so it will always be a modest contributor. We're talking about $200 million of net income. So we'll continue to grow it opportunistically. We think it's -- there's an incredible wave of support for renewables. We think it's the growing part of the generation portfolio in the U.S. We want to be a part of it, but it will take a long time for it to have a meaningful percentage impact on the portfolio of the company given the size and the growth profile of what else we operate.

邁克爾，我想說這是互補的。但考慮到我們在電力和天然氣方面運營的受監管業務的規模，因此它將始終是一個適度的貢獻者。我們談論的是 2 億美元的淨收入。因此，我們將繼續抓住機會，實現成長。我們認為，人們對再生能源的支持浪潮令人難以置信。我們認為它是美國發電組合中不斷增長的部分。我們希望成為其中的一部分，但考慮到我們經營的其他業務的規模和成長狀況，它需要很長時間才能對公司的投資組合產生有意義的百分比影響。

Got it. But when you think about the Commercial Renewable business and its growth rate that's embedded in your multiyear 4- or 5-year EPS growth rate guidance, do you assume that, that business, like the gas utility and pipeline business, grows at a faster rate than the core electric utilities? Does it grow more in line with the electrics or beneath that? I'm just trying to -- I'm trying to parse a little bit about what's in the guidance levels.

知道了。但是，當您考慮商業再生能源業務及其包含在您多年期 4 年或 5 年 EPS 成長率指引中的成長率時，您是否認為，該業務（如天然氣公用事業和管道業務）的成長速度比核心電力公用事業更快？它的成長是否更符合電氣標準還是低於電氣標準？我只是想——我只是想稍微分析一下指導水平中的內容。

Yes. So it grows faster in the short-term part of the plan, Michael, and levels off in the back part. By the time 2023 rolls around, we begin to enter a period where we have some wind projects reaching their PTC expiration. So I would think about it as being a stronger contributor in the front end than the back end.

是的。因此，邁克爾，在計劃的短期部分，增長速度較快，而在後半部分，增長速度趨於平穩。到 2023 年，我們將開始進入一些風電專案 PTC 到期的時期。所以我認為它在前端的貢獻比在後端的貢獻更大。

Got it. And then last one. Just curious, tax rate and guidance seems to be a little bit on the low side. Is that anything at the utilities? Or is that all -- and I think someone touched that, is that all just related to tax credits as you bring assets into service on the Commercial Renewable side? And then should we assume that tax rate stays -- that, that consolidated tax rate stays at that level through the whole guidance period? Or does it creep up over time?

知道了。然後是最後一個。只是好奇，稅率和指引似乎有點低。公用事業方面有這種事嗎？或者這就是全部——我認為有人提到了這一點，當你將資產投入商業再生能源服務時，這一切都與稅收抵免有關嗎？那麼我們是否應該假設稅率保持不變——即綜合稅率在整個指導期內保持在該水平？還是隨著時間的推移它會逐漸增加？

Michael, the tax rate could change over time. We've lowered it because primarily to give back the EDIT. We're starting to push those taxes back through to rates in our various jurisdictions, and that will push the effective tax rate down. Now there's an offset in revenues as you give these taxes back and lower rates, but it will change the effective tax rate. Now the addition of renewables and the credits associated with that will also push it down, but a player in here is the excess deferred taxes that are being given back. So as we move through time, we'll look at how that excess deferreds are given back. Whether that's ratable or whether there's fluctuations in that and those types of things plus the renewables cycling up or down, those things could push the effective tax rate around a bit.

邁克爾，稅率可能會隨著時間而改變。我們降低它主要是為了歸還編輯。我們開始將這些稅收推回我們各個管轄區的稅率，這將降低實際稅率。現在，由於你返還這些稅款並降低稅率，收入有所抵消，但這會改變實際稅率。現在，再生能源和相關信貸的增加也將推低這個數字，但這裡的一個因素是返還的超額遞延稅。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將研究如何返還多餘的延期款項。無論這是否是按稅率徵收的，或者是否存在波動，以及諸如此類的事情，再加上可再生能源的循環上升或下降，這些因素都可能稍微推高有效稅率。

We will now take our next question from Andrew Weisel of Scotia Howard Weil.

我們現在將回答來自 Scotia Howard Weil 的 Andrew Weisel 提出的下一個問題。

My first question is on the outlook for CapEx at Midstream. How much of that is more than just -- of the $2.9 billion included, how much of that is more than just the main ACP? In other words, do you have expansions at ACP? Do you have other greenfield projects? What else is in that bucket, please?

我的第一個問題是關於中游資本支出的前景。其中有多少不僅僅是——在所包含的 29 億美元中，有多少不僅僅是主要的 ACP？換句話說，您在 ACP 有擴充嗎？您還有其他綠地專案嗎？請問桶子裡還有什麼？

It's primarily ACP, Andrew. We've actually dialed back in this 5-year plan expansion capital until we have a better sense of in-service and completion of this project. We have a little bit of placeholder capital, maybe $250 million sitting out there in '22, '23, but I would think of it as primarily ACP.

主要是 ACP，安德魯。實際上，我們已經減少了這項五年計畫的擴張資金，直到我們對該專案的投入和完成情況有更好的了解。我們有一些佔位資本，大概有 2.5 億美元，將在 2022 年和 2023 年投入使用，但我認為這主要是 ACP。

Okay. How would you describe your appetite for more greenfield midstream construction going forward? If you saw another opportunity come along, how willing would you be to jump on it?

好的。您如何描述對未來更多綠地中游建設的興趣？如果您看到另一個機會出現，您會多麼願意抓住它？

That's a really good question, Andrew. You're catching us mid-cycle here in Atlantic Coast Pipeline. We're a believer in the infrastructure. I think one of the things that gets overlooked in this discussion of these pipelines is how critical they are to our customers. And we think about our Piedmont system and the need to continue to provide pressure for growth in that area. We think about the infrastructure in North Carolina supporting economic development and our power system, which has a lot of renewables in the eastern part of the state. So we're a believer in the infrastructure investment. We've learned a lot about how to move through these. The stakeholder engagements, it's important to permitting, et cetera. So we like the business. I think -- but we'd be thoughtful about what opportunities exist that we might want to pursue.

這是一個非常好的問題，安德魯。您會看到我們正處於大西洋海岸管道的中期週期。我們相信基礎設施。我認為在討論這些管道時被忽視的一件事是它們對我們的客戶有多重要。我們考慮我們的皮埃蒙特系統以及繼續為該地區的成長提供壓力的必要性。我們考慮北卡羅來納州支持經濟發展的基礎設施和我們的電力系統，該州東部擁有大量可再生能源。因此我們相信基礎設施投資。我們已經學到了很多關於如何解決這些問題的知識。利害關係人的參與對於許可等都很重要。所以我們喜歡這個生意。我認為——但我們會認真考慮存在哪些我們想要追求的機會。

Got it. Makes sense. And just a quick one on the dividends. Before I ask the question, could you repeat what was the targeted payout ratio you had for 5 years out?

知道了。有道理。簡單談談股息。在我提出問題之前，您能否重複您未來 5 年的目標派息率是多少？

So we have indicated a range of 65% to 75%, Andrew, but we'd like to moderate our payout ratio. We're above 75% today. By the end of the 5-year period, we'd like to be closer to 70%. Still committed to strong growth of the dividend. We think our yield is very attractive. We have a long-standing history of growing the dividend but believe that some moderation to the payout ratio positions the company for more sustainable growth given our robust capital plan.

因此，安德魯，我們已經指出了 65% 到 75% 的範圍，但我們想調整我們的派息率。今天我們的成功率已經超過 75%。到五年期結束時，我們希望這一比例接近 70%。仍致力於股息的強勁增長。我們認為我們的收益率非常有吸引力。我們長期以來一直致力於提高股息，但我們相信，鑑於我們強勁的資本計劃，適當降低派息率將使公司實現更永續的成長。

Okay. So -- but just to clarify, the back of the envelope math to me suggest around a 3.5% CAGR. You previously guided to 4% to 6% just as recently as EEI. What would you say were the biggest deltas then as far as being a bit more conservative on the dividend growth?

好的。所以——但只是為了澄清一下，根據我的估算，複合年增長率約為 3.5%。您之前曾將 EEI 預期為 4% 至 6%。那麼，就股息成長較為保守而言，您認為最大的差異是什麼？

I think this near-term uncertainty that we've experienced around Atlantic Coast Pipeline, Andrew, where we're looking at '20 and '21 as being influenced in that way. And then as we think about $1 billion of hurricanes that we've experienced, we also think about our desire to continue growing with a very robust capital plan. We believe all those things taken together represent a very attractive dividend plus growth profile for our investors and think that moderating the dividend payout ratio as part of that whole picture makes a lot of sense.

安德魯，我認為我們在大西洋海岸管道項目方面經歷的近期不確定性，我們預計 20 年和 21 年將受到這種影響。然後，當我們想到我們所經歷的 10 億美元颶風時，我們也想到了我們希望透過非常強大的資本計劃繼續成長。我們相信，所有這些因素加在一起，對我們的投資者來說代表著非常有吸引力的股息加成長前景，並認為，將調整股息支付率作為整體情況的一部分是非常有意義的。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to hand the call over to Ms. Lynn Good for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話交給 Lynn Good 女士，請她發表任何補充或結束語。

Very good. Thank you, Kevin. Thank you all for participating today, for your questions. Our IR team will be available both today, tomorrow and ongoing for any further questions. We appreciate your investment in Duke Energy. So thanks so much.

非常好。謝謝你，凱文。感謝大家今天的參與與提問。我們的 IR 團隊今天、明天以及以後都會隨時解答您的任何問題。我們感謝您對杜克能源的投資。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。