Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Duke Energy fourth quarter earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，感謝大家的收看。歡迎參加杜克能源第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁傑克‧沙利文。先生，請講。

Thank you, Hannah. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, our Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; along with Steve Young, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，漢娜。大家早安，歡迎參加杜克能源2020年第四季獲利回顧及業務更新會議。今天主持電話會議的是我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長林恩古德 (Lynn Good)，以及執行副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫楊 (Steve Young)。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of the securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from such forward-looking statements, and those factors are outlined herein and disclosed in Duke Energy's SEC filings. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in today's materials and on dukeenergy.com. Please note the appendix for today's presentation includes supplemental information and additional disclosures.

今天的討論將涉及非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標和證券法所定義前瞻性資訊的使用。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些因素已在本文概述，並在杜克能源提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中揭露。非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的對帳表可在今天的資料和 dukeenergy.com 上找到。請注意，今天簡報的附錄包含補充資訊和額外揭露。

So with that, let's turn the call over to Lynn.

那麼，讓我們把電話交給 Lynn。

Jack, thank you, and good morning, everyone. I want to take a moment and welcome Jack to his first earnings call. He has recently extended his responsibility as Vice President of Investor Relations after a very strong 15-year career with Duke, where he's had financial experience, capital markets experience, M&A experience and brings that wealth of background to this role as well as a deep understanding of our company and our industry. We put him to work over the last couple of weeks of all of our announcements. So many of you have already had a chance to meet and talk with Jack, but you can look forward to more interaction with him as we go forward.

傑克，謝謝你，大家早安。我想花點時間歡迎傑克參加他的首次財報電話會議。在杜克大學（Duke）工作了15年之後，他最近被任命為投資者關係副總裁，在杜克大學擁有豐富的金融、資本市場和併購經驗，並將這些豐富的背景以及對我們公司和行業的深刻理解帶到了這個職位上。在過去幾週的所有公告發布期間，我們都安排他參與其中。你們中的許多人已經有機會與傑克見面交談，但你們可以期待在未來與他進行更多互動。

So good morning to all of you. It's great to be with you for our fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. We begin the year with significant momentum on strategic, regulatory and stakeholder fronts, and I'm very optimistic about our future heading into 2021.

大家早安！很高興能和大家一起參加我們2020年第四季的財報電話會議。新年伊始，我們在策略、監管和利害關係人方面都取得了顯著進展，我對2021年的未來充滿信心。

Today, we announced adjusted earnings per share of $5.12 for the year, putting us solidly within our updated guidance range for 2020. These results reflect the strength of our regulated utilities, our commitment to generating sustainable shareholder value and our financial agility, especially in response to the unique difficulties of this past year. We also affirmed our 2021 guidance range of $5 to $5.30, with a midpoint of $5.15 and our recently increased a long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2025 based off the midpoint of our 2021 guidance range.

今天，我們宣布全年調整後每股收益為5.12美元，穩固地符合我們更新後的2020年指引區間。這些業績體現了我們受監管公用事業業務的強勁表現、我們致力於創造永續股東價值的承諾以及我們應對過去一年特殊挑戰的財務靈活性。我們也確認了2021年每股收益區間為5美元至5.30美元，中位數為5.15美元。我們最近基於2021年指引區間的中位數，將2025年的長期每股盈餘成長率上調至5%至7%。

Like most companies, 2020 presented us with new challenges, and I'm extremely proud of how we responded. We faced those challenges head on, swiftly responding to the COVID-19 pandemic to support our customers and our workforce, adjusting our plans after removing Atlantic Coast pipeline, producing $450 million in mitigation actions and responding to significant storms throughout the year. All of this was made possible by our employees who showed incredible results as they adjusted to new working conditions, identified cost savings and operational improvements and maintained reliable service for our customers. In short, we did more than just get through 2020. We adapted and delivered learning new ways of working that will benefit us in the years ahead.

與大多數公司一樣，2020 年也為我們帶來了新的挑戰，我為我們的應對方式感到無比自豪。我們直面挑戰，迅速應對新冠疫情，為客戶和員工提供支援；在大西洋海岸輸油管拆除後調整計劃；投入 4.5 億美元的減災措施；並全年應對重大風暴。所有這些成就都歸功於我們的員工，他們適應了新的工作環境，實現了成本節約和營運改進，並為客戶提供了可靠的服務，並取得了卓越的成果。簡而言之，我們所做的不僅僅是度過 2020 年。我們適應並學習了新的工作方式，這將使我們在未來受益。

The momentum from 2020 has continued into 2021. And turning to Slide 5. Duke Energy has made significant progress, resolving uncertainties around our company and laying a solid foundation for growth into the future. Slide 5 captures the myriad accomplishment that the Duke Energy team delivered, all providing benefits to our customers and our investors and allowing us to turn our full attention to advancing our goal to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 and achieve net-zero by 2050.

2020年的良好勢頭延續到了2021年。請翻到第五張投影片。杜克能源取得了重大進展，解決了公司面臨的不確定性，並為未來的成長奠定了堅實的基礎。第五張投影片展現了杜克能源團隊的許多成就，這些成就惠及我們的客戶和投資者，並使我們能夠全力以赴地推進到2030年將碳排放量減少50%，到2050年實現淨零排放的目標。

In North Carolina, we reached a milestone settlement with the State Attorney General Public Staff and Sierra Club to close the debate around coal ash cost recovery. We're pleased with this balanced compromise, resolved several outstanding issues, including the remand of the 2017 rate cases and the pending 2019 rate cases. It also provides greater clarity and recovery of coal ash costs incurred through early 2030 and preserves our ability to earn an equity return on deferred coal ash costs. This settlement complements the previous settlement reached in the summer of 2020 on ROE and capital structure and again demonstrates our commitment to working collaboratively with stakeholders in our jurisdictions. We look forward to the commission's order, addressing these settlements and the remaining issues in the case.

在北卡羅來納州，我們與州檢察長公共工作人員和塞拉俱樂部達成了一項具有里程碑意義的和解，結束了圍繞煤灰成本回收的爭論。我們對這項平衡的妥協方案感到滿意，它解決了幾個懸而未決的問題，包括2017年費率案件的發回重審和2019年待決費率案件。該方案也更清楚地解釋了截至2030年初發生的煤灰成本，並提高了回收率，並保留了我們透過遞延煤灰成本獲得股權回報的能力。此次和解是對2020年夏季就股本回報率和資本結構達成的先前和解的補充，再次表明了我們致力於與轄區內利益相關者合作的承諾。我們期待委員會發布命令，以解決這些和解方案以及案件中的剩餘問題。

We also developed innovative IRPs in the Carolina as outlined in comprehensive proposals and offering 6 portfolios to meet key carbon reduction milestones over the next 15 years. And for the past year, we've been working with stakeholder groups to help shape North Carolina's Clean Energy Plan with a common goal of reaching net-zero carbon in a way that best serves our customers. This complements the efforts underway on regulatory reform and introducing more efficient cost recovery mechanisms.

我們還根據綜合提案中的概述，在北卡羅來納州制定了創新的綜合資源配置方案 (IRP)，並提供了六個投資組合，以實現未來15年的關鍵碳減排里程碑。過去一年，我們一直與利害關係人團體合作，協助制定北卡羅來納州的清潔能源計劃，其共同目標是以最能服務客戶的方式實現淨零碳排放。這與我們正在進行的監管改革和引入更有效率的成本回收機制的努力相輔相成。

Shifting to Florida. We worked with business and consumer groups, including the Office of Public Counsel, to propose a new 3-year settlement, giving our investors and customers clear visibility through 2024. This settlement includes multiyear base rate increases to recover significant investments in the grid, solar generation and electric vehicle infrastructure. It also allows for the accelerated depreciation of coal plants and supports innovative technology pilot programs that are important to achieving our carving goals in Clean Energy future. We expect an order from the Florida Commission by the end of the second quarter with rates effective in January of 2022.

遷移至佛羅裡達州。我們與包括公共律師辦公室在內的商業和消費者團體合作，提出了一項新的三年期和解方案，為我們的投資者和客戶提供了清晰的透明度，直至2024年。和解方案包括多年期基準費率上調，以收回電網、太陽能發電和電動車基礎設施的重大投資。此外，該方案還允許加速燃煤電廠的折舊，並支持創新技術試點項目，這些項目對於我們實現清潔能源未來的宏偉目標至關重要。我們預計佛羅裡達州委員會將在第二季末下達命令，費率將於2022年1月生效。

Beyond the multiyear rate plan, we also received approval of the first 3 years of our storm protection plans, representing a $6 billion investment in grid hardening projects over the next 10 years.

除了多年期電價計畫外，我們還獲得了前三年風暴防護計畫的批准，這意味著未來 10 年我們將在電網強化計畫上投資 60 億美元。

In Indiana, we recently announced the GIC, a global investment firm with significant experience investing in U.S. infrastructure companies, will become a minority investor in Duke Energy, Indiana. For $2.05 billion, GIC will acquire a 19.9% ownership stake with governance rights commensurate with their equity ownership. GIC highlighted that our proven track record of high performance and clear commitment to a Clean Energy transition makes this an attractive partnership for them.

在印第安納州，我們近期宣布，在投資美國基礎設施公司方面擁有豐富經驗的全球投資公司新加坡政府投資公司 (GIC) 將成為印第安納州杜克能源的少數股東。 GIC 將以 20.5 億美元收購杜克能源 19.9% 的股權，並享有與其股權相當的治理權。 GIC 強調，我們卓越的業績記錄以及對清潔能源轉型的明確承諾，使其成為一項極具吸引力的合作夥伴關係。

The transaction values our DEI utility at an attractive multiple to our current stock valuation, providing an efficient source of financing for our business and allowing us to eliminate all common equity from our 5-year plan. The structure of the investment also allows us to better match financing with capital needs, bringing $1 billion into our company in 2021 and the second tranche no later than January of 2023. This investment is a strong endorsement of our company and in Duke Energy, Indiana, our operations, employees and opportunities for growth. It is also a strong endorsement of our overall strategy to be a leader in Clean Energy transformation.

此交易對我們DEI公用事業的估值與我們目前的股票估值相比，具有顯著的倍數優勢，為我們的業務提供了高效的融資來源，並使我們能夠將所有普通股從五年計劃中剔除。投資結構也使我們能夠更好地匹配融資與資本需求，預計在2021年為公司帶來10億美元的資金，第二筆資金將不遲於2023年1月到位。這項投資是對我們公司以及印第安納州杜克能源的營運、員工和成長機會的有力支持。它也是對我們成為清潔能源轉型領導者的整體策略的有力認可。

We also significantly expanded our renewable footprint in our regulated and commercial businesses, announcing more than 700 megawatts of solar and wind energy projects, and we built momentum around electric vehicle pilot program, which was further amplified by our own pledge to electrify the Duke Energy fleet.

我們還顯著擴大了我們在受監管和商業業務中的可再生能源足跡，宣布了超過 700 兆瓦的太陽能和風能項目，並且我們在電動汽車試點計劃方面建立了勢頭，而我們自己對杜克能源車隊電氣化的承諾進一步擴大了這一勢頭。

In turning to Tennessee, we reached a constructive settlement in our Piedmont Natural Gas rate case with the Attorney General's Consumer Advocate Division. This is our first general rate case in Tennessee in almost 9 years, allowing us to recover needed infrastructure investments to serve our growing customer base in and around Nashville. This is an impressive list of accomplishments, and we will keep going with a clear Clean Energy vision and growth in the 5% to 7% range, underpinned by a robust capital plan, constructive jurisdictions, operational excellence and a diverse committed workforce.

在田納西州，我們與總檢察長消費者權益保護部門就皮埃蒙特天然氣費率案達成了建設性和解。這是我們近九年來在田納西州的首起一般費率案件，使我們能夠收回所需的基礎設施投資，以服務納許維爾及其周邊地區不斷增長的客戶群。這是一個令人印象深刻的成就清單，我們將繼續秉持清晰的清潔能源願景，以穩健的資本計劃、建設性的司法管轄權、卓越的運營和多元化、敬業的員工隊伍為基礎，實現5%至7%的增長率。

Shifting to Slide 6. We began 2021 with a clear vision for the future to lead the Clean Energy transition in our communities. Our goal is captured clearly in our climate strategy, at least 50% carbon reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050. We crossed a major milestone in 2020, surpassing 40% carbon reduction from 2005 levels and we're poised to hit more milestones in the years to come. Our road map to success involves close collaboration with key stakeholders, an accelerated move from coal and into cleaner forms of generation, including renewables and battery storage, the modernization of our grid to enable more clean energy and an unwavering commitment to reliability and affordability.

轉到第6張投影片。 2021年開始，我們清楚展望未來，引領社區清潔能源轉型。我們的目標清楚地體現在我們的氣候策略中：到2030年至少減少50%的碳排放，到2050年實現淨零排放。 2020年，我們跨越了一個重要的里程碑，碳排放比2005年的水準下降了40%，我們準備在未來幾年實現更多里程碑。我們的成功路線圖包括與關鍵利益相關者密切合作，加速從煤炭轉向更清潔的發電方式，包括再生能源和電池儲能，實現電網現代化以提供更多清潔能源，並堅定不移地致力於提高可靠性和可負擔性。

2021 is an important year on this journey. In North Carolina stakeholder discussions initiated by the Governor's Clean Energy Plan are beginning to wrap up. These conversations have been very helpful in creating a common understanding among the interested parties on Clean Energy principles and the regulatory changes needed to effectuate a generation transition. As the 2021 legislative session begins, we believe both stakeholders and policymakers will benefit from this work as well as the information found in the comprehensive IRPs we filed last summer.

2021年是這一征程中重要的一年。在北卡羅來納州，由州長清潔能源計劃發起的利益相關方討論即將結束。這些對話非常有助於利害關係人就清潔能源原則以及實現發電轉型所需的監管變革達成共識。隨著2021年立法會議的開始，我們相信，利益相關者和政策制定者都將受益於這項工作以及我們去年夏天提交的綜合能源規劃（IRP）中的資訊。

Those resource plans present several pathways that illustrate the trade-offs between the pace of transition and cost implications. We look forward to working with legislators and stakeholders over the next several weeks and months to evaluate the various options. And we are optimistic about the policies that can be created from shared objectives around North Carolina's Clean Energy transition as well as the regulatory reforms that provide for timely recovery of these investments.

這些資源計劃提出了幾種途徑，闡明了轉型速度與成本影響之間的權衡。我們期待在未來幾週和幾個月內與立法者和利益相關者合作，評估各種方案。我們對圍繞北卡羅來納州清潔能源轉型的共同目標以及旨在及時收回這些投資的監管改革所製定的政策持樂觀態度。

In Indiana, we will continue our critical grid improvement projects and further our Clean Energy transition as we file our 2021 IRP this November. In Florida, our recent settlement outlines a clear path for further renewable and EV investment in the state through 2024 and the accelerated retirement of coal plants.

在印第安納州，我們將繼續推動關鍵的電網改善項目，並於今年11月提交2021年綜合資源計畫（IRP）。在佛羅裡達州，我們最近的協議勾勒出一條清晰的路線，明確了到2024年該州將進一步投資再生能源和電動車，並加速淘汰燃煤電廠。

And at the federal level, we will work closely with policymakers as the Biden administration reenters the Paris Agreement and sets a national policy that advances our country's transition to clean energy. We look forward to adding our voice to this important discussion, ensuring that the policies strategically integrate emissions reductions, cost considerations and the promotion of a broad range of technology development. Our objectives are clear and will create value for all of our stakeholders. Our climate strategy is our growth strategy, and our relentless commitment to our bold climate targets means we are leading the transition to clean energy.

在聯邦層面，隨著拜登政府重新加入《巴黎協定》並制定推動我國向清潔能源轉型的國家政策，我們將與政策制定者密切合作。我們期待在這場重要的討論中發出自己的聲音，確保這些政策在策略上將減排、成本考量和推動廣泛的技術發展結合起來。我們的目標明確，並將為所有利害關係人創造價值。我們的氣候策略就是我們的成長策略，我們對宏偉氣候目標的不懈承諾意味著我們正在引領向清潔能源的轉型。

Our aggressive $59 billion capital plan is among the largest in the industry, placing us at the forefront of clean energy at scale. We're confident this capital will generate value for our growing constructive jurisdictions and provide clean affordable energy for the more than 25 million customers we serve every day. This capital plan positions Duke to achieve earnings growth of 5% to 7% based off the 2021 midpoint of $5.15. I'm very proud of our results and excited about Duke Energy's path forward.

我們雄心勃勃的590億美元資本計畫是業內規模最大的資本計畫之一，使我們在清潔能源領域處於領先地位。我們相信，這筆資金將為我們日益壯大的建設性管轄區創造價值，並為我們每天服務的超過2500萬名客戶提供清潔、實惠的能源。這項資本計畫將使杜克能源的獲利成長達到5%至7%，以2021年每股5.15美元的中點價格為基礎。我對我們的業績感到非常自豪，並對杜克能源的未來充滿期待。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Steve.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. 2020 was a year marked by agility and transformation. We delivered results within our guidance range, overcame headwinds and leveraged our size and scale to position the company for significant growth in the years ahead.

謝謝，Lynn，大家早安。 2020年是敏捷和轉型的一年。我們實現了預期範圍內的業績，克服了挑戰，並充分利用了我們的規模優勢，為公司未來幾年的顯著成長奠定了基礎。

As shown on Slide 7, our full year reported and adjusted earnings per share were $1.72 and $5.12 as compared to $5.06 of reported and adjusted earnings per share in 2019. We took swift and decisive action to mitigate the challenges we faced this year. We did not allow COVID-19, mild weather, storms and the loss of ACP earnings to define our path forward. And this commitment and dexterity enabled us to deliver solidly within our narrow 2020 earnings guidance range.

如投影片7所示，我們全年報告每股收益和調整後每股收益分別為1.72美元和5.12美元，而2019年報告每股收益和調整後每股收益分別為5.06美元。我們迅速果斷地採取了行動，以應對今年面臨的挑戰。我們沒有讓新冠疫情、溫和天氣、暴風雨以及ACP收益的損失阻礙我們前進的道路。正是這種承諾和靈活應變的能力，使我們能夠在2020年盈利預期的窄幅區間內穩健地實現目標。

Our 2020 results were driven by strong execution across each of our operating segments, growth from our rate case execution in Indiana and Kentucky, interim rates in North Carolina and continued growth from our Florida operations through their multiyear rate plan and SoBRA mechanisms, produced positive results in electric utilities and infrastructure. We also saw growth in our Carolina's wholesale business due to the new formula rate contract that was effective this year. These factors were offset by regulatory lag and our growing asset base, milder weather and dilution from equity issuances.

我們2020年的業績得益於各營運部門的強勁執行力，包括印第安納州和肯塔基州費率方案執行力的增長、北卡羅來納州臨時費率的提升，以及佛羅裡達州業務透過其多年期費率計劃和SoBRA機制的持續增長，這些因素在電力公用事業和基礎設施領域取得了積極的成果。由於今年生效的新公式費率合同，卡羅來納州的批發業務也實現了增長。這些因素被監管滯後、資產規模不斷擴大、氣候變暖以及股票發行帶來的稀釋所抵消。

Shifting to Gas Utilities & Infrastructure, we saw higher results in our LDC businesses, primarily due to Piedmont's rate case in North Carolina and contributions from rider mechanisms. The gas LDCs continue to provide strong earnings growth, adding $0.11, driven by customer additions and investments in integrity management, but offset by the cancellation of ACP in July.

轉向燃氣公用事業和基礎設施業務，我們的LDC業務業績有所提升，這主要得益於Piedmont在北卡羅來納州的費率案例以及附加費機制的貢獻。瓦斯LDC業務持續保持強勁獲利成長，獲利成長0.11美元，這得益於客戶增加和誠信管理的投資，但7月份ACP業務的取消抵銷了這一成長。

Results in commercial renewables were higher than 2019, driven by new projects placed in service, including Palmer, Holstein and Rambler, which together totaled 460 megawatts. Going forward, we continue to plan for this segment to deliver between $200 million and $250 million of net income per year over the 5-year plan with the potential for upside that projects meet our return expectations.

商業再生能源業務的業績高於2019年，這得益於Palmer、Holstein和Rambler等新投產項目的推動，這些項目的總裝置容量達460兆瓦。展望未來，我們繼續計劃讓該業務板塊在五年計劃內每年實現2億至2.5億美元的淨收入，如果項目符合我們的回報預期，則未來還有上升潛力。

Having accomplished a lot in 2020, we turned to 2021 well positioned to achieve our adjusted EPS guidance range of $5 to $5.30 with a $5.15 midpoint.

在 2020 年取得了許多成就之後，我們準備在 2021 年實現調整後的每股收益預期範圍 5 美元至 5.30 美元，中間值為 5.15 美元。

Turning to Slide 8. Our financial outlook for 2021 and beyond is strong and rooted in our increased capital investment plan. Our core utilities continue to generate solid growth, driving our earnings results upward for the foreseeable future. For Electric Utilities & Infrastructure, growth in 2021 will come from our customer additions and infrastructure investments across our franchises. In the Carolinas, we will experience growth from revised rates in our current pending rate cases.

翻到第8張幻燈片。我們對2021年及以後的財務前景強勁，這源自於我們增加的資本投資計畫。我們的核心公用事業業務持續保持穩健成長，在可預見的未來推動我們的獲利業績上升。對於電力公用事業和基礎設施業務，2021年的成長將來自我們新增的客戶和我們特許經營業務的基礎設施投資。在卡羅萊納州，我們將因目前未決費率案件的調整而成長。

In Florida, we expect strong earnings contributions as we move into the final year of our multiyear rate plan, coupled with growth in solar via the SoBRA mechanism. In 2021, we'll continue to benefit from the steady growth of our T&D infrastructure investments in the Midwest, along with new effective rates in Indiana and Kentucky. As the economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, we forecast our 2021 low growth in the 1% to 2% range across our entire footprint, driven by some of the strongest customer growth we have seen in recent years.

在佛羅裡達州，隨著我們進入多年期電價計畫的最後一年，加上透過SoBRA機制實現的太陽能業務成長，我們預計該州的獲利貢獻將強勁。 2021年，我們將繼續受益於中西部輸配電基礎設施投資的穩定成長，以及印第安納州和肯塔基州新的有效電價。隨著經濟持續從疫情中復甦，我們預測2021年我們整個業務範圍的成長率將在1%至2%之間，這得益於近年來一些最強勁的客戶成長。

Our Gas Utilities & Infrastructure segment provides consistent and steady growth, largely driven by our organic customer additions and integrity management investments. These investments will translate to revenues through riders and base rate adjustment mechanisms in our LDCs, such as the recent rate settlement filed in Tennessee.

我們的天然氣公用事業和基礎設施部門持續穩定成長，主要得益於客戶的自然成長和誠信管理投資。這些投資將透過我們最不發達國家的附加條款和基準費率調整機制轉化為收入，例如最近在田納西州提交的費率結算。

In commercial renewables, in 2021, we will deliver annual earnings solidly in the $200 million to $250 million range and throughout the 5-year plan. We expect the other segment to be lower year-over-year. This is primarily due to favorable tax optimization in 2020 not producing the same level of contributions in 2021 and the expectation of lower market returns in our captive insurance program and grant or trust. Finally, we have adjusted our plans to reflect the cancellation of ACP and the full year impact of the $2.5 billion equity forward transaction that closed in December of 2020. Including this, we expect growth in our core businesses of 6% in 2021.

在商業再生能源領域，我們將在2021年實現2億至2.5億美元的穩健年度獲利，並貫穿整個五年計畫。我們預計其他業務板塊的利潤將比去年同期下降。這主要是由於2020年有利的稅收優化措施未能在2021年產生同等水準的貢獻，以及我們自保保險計劃和贈款或信託的市場回報率預期下降。最後，我們調整了計劃，以反映ACP的取消以及2020年12月完成的25億美元股權遠期交易對全年的影響。計入這些因素，我們預計2021年核心業務的成長率為6%。

Turning to Slide 9. Let me touch on electric volumes and economic trends. We operate in constructive and growing jurisdictions. That said, like most utilities, we saw a decline in retail load for 2020 given the impact of the pandemic. While residential volumes were up 3% for the year, that did not offset the lower volumes from commercial and industrial customers. As we look at customer growth, we experienced very positive trends closing out 2020 with 1.8% growth for the year. This was favorable to the projections we originally shared in May of last year and affirms we operate in high-growth states. In fact, our franchises serve 4 of the top 8 states in terms of positive population migration.

翻到第9張投影片。讓我來談談用電量和經濟趨勢。我們營運的地區都處於建設性成長的地區。然而，與大多數公用事業公司一樣，受疫情影響，2020年的零售負載下降。雖然全年住宅用電量增加了3%，但這並未抵消商業和工業客戶用電量的下降。就客戶成長而言，我們在2020年末經歷了非常積極的趨勢，全年成長率為1.8%。這與我們去年5月最初分享的預測相符，也印證了我們在高成長州營運的良好勢頭。事實上，在人口遷移量排名前8的州中，我們的特許經營網絡涵蓋了其中4個。

We project an overall increase in electricity consumption in 2021 of 1% to 2% over 2020, given many of our commercial and industrial customers continue to return to normal operations. We expect the metrics for residential may decline a bit as people begin to return to the workplace following the mass distribution of the COVID vaccine. Over the 5-year plan, we project load growth of 0.5% to 1% as the economy returns to pre-COVID status.

鑑於許多商業和工業客戶持續恢復正常運營，我們預計2021年整體用電量將比2020年增長1%至2%。隨著新冠疫苗大規模分發，人們開始重返工作崗位，我們預計住宅用電量指標可能會略有下降。隨著經濟恢復到新冠疫情前水平，我們預計五年計畫期間負荷將成長0.5%至1%。

On Slide 10, you will see the transformative work underway to lower our cost structure and bolster our growth potential. Duke Energy is a leader in the industry when it comes to cost mitigation, driven by digital capabilities, data analytics and retraining and reskilling employees, which serves -- which drives a more versatile workforce. Taken together, these factors result in meaningful and sustainable savings.

在第10張投影片上，您將看到我們正在進行的變革性工作，旨在降低我們的成本結構並增強我們的成長潛力。杜克能源在成本控制方面處於行業領先地位，這得益於數位化能力、數據分析以及員工再培訓和技能提升，從而推動了更多元化的員工隊伍建設。這些因素共同作用，帶來了顯著且可持續的成本節約。

When 2020 began with weaker weather and storms, we initiated tactical business matters to significantly reduce our O&M costs. And in response to the pandemic in the first quarter, we accelerated these mitigations to offset projected impacts. By the end of the year, we delivered $450 million of mitigation. This included $320 million of O&M savings, equivalent to more than 6% of our 2020 nonrider recoverable O&M. And this was done with a keen focus on minimizing the impacts to employee jobs.

2020年伊始，天氣和風暴減弱，我們啟動了戰術性業務，大幅降低了營運和維護成本。為了應對第一季的疫情，我們加快了這些緩解措施，以抵消預期的影響。到年底，我們已實施了4.5億美元的緩解措施，其中包括3.2億美元的營運和維護成本節省，相當於我們2020年非附加險可恢復營運和維護成本的6%以上。這一切都是為了最大限度地減少對員工就業的影響。

While certain cost savings in 2020 were onetime opportunities, we have identified many others that are sustainable, which will ultimately benefit our customers and shareholders over the long term. These sustainable savings of approximately $200 million are underpinned by our versatile workforce who continue to adopt advanced technologies to perform work with increased efficiencies, allowing us to take advantage of attrition, reduce employee expenses and minimize facilities costs. For the past 5 years, our net regulated electric and gas O&M has a decline approximately 1% per year, even with the acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas and we expect this downward trend to continue.

雖然2020年的某些成本節約是一次性機會，但我們已發現許多其他可持續的成本節約，最終將使我們的客戶和股東長期受益。這些約2億美元的可持續成本節約得益於我們多才多藝的員工隊伍，他們不斷採用先進技術來提高工作效率，使我們能夠充分利用人員流失，降低員工支出並最大限度地降低設施成本。過去5年，即使收購了皮埃蒙特天然氣公司，我們的淨受監管電力和天然氣運維成本每年仍下降約1%，我們預計這種下降趨勢將持續下去。

Moving to Slide 11. As Lynn discussed, we have a robust capital plan of $59 billion over the 5-year planning period. About 70% of this capital investment will be geared towards investments in clean energy and the grid infrastructure that supports it. We expect the Clean Energy transformation to ramp up over the 5-year period and grow even further to $65 billion to $75 billion when we enter the back half of the decade. This will be largely driven by more coal plant retirements and the acceleration of renewables. We expect to gain more clarity around this projection as our states make important carbon policy decisions. These investments across our electric and LDC franchises position us for a 5-year rate base CAGR of approximately 6.5%. For the next 5-year period ending in 2029, we see that growth accelerating to 7% based on our growing capital needs during this transition and transformation.

轉到第11張投影片。正如Lynn所討論的，我們制定了一項穩健的五年規劃，總資本投入高達590億美元。其中約70%的資本投資將用於清潔能源及其配套電網基礎設施的投資。我們預計，清潔能源轉型將在五年內加速推進，到2020年下半年將進一步成長至650億至750億美元。這主要得益於更多燃煤電廠的退役和再生能源的加速發展。隨著各州制定重要的碳排放政策，我們預計這項預測將更加清晰。這些對電力和LDC特許經營權的投資，使我們的五年複合年增長率達到約6.5%。在截至2029年的下一個五年期，基於我們在轉型和轉型過程中不斷增長的資本需求，我們預計這一增長率將加速至7%。

Turning to Slide 12. Our growing capital plan, vibrant franchise service area growth and proven capability to control cost and work constructively to stakeholders to move through regulatory processes give us confidence in our ability to consistently grow our adjusted earnings per share of 5% to 7% throughout the 5-year period. Bear in mind, this capital plan assumes the lower-end carbon reduction scenarios in the Carolinas.

翻到第12張投影片。我們不斷增長的資本計劃、蓬勃發展的特許經營服務區域，以及我們經驗證的成本控制能力，以及與利益相關者建設性地合作以順利通過監管流程的能力，讓我們有信心在未來五年內持續實現5%至7%的調整後每股收益增長。需要注意的是，本資本計畫假設了卡羅萊納州的低端碳減量情景。

Moving to Slide 13. Our ability to execute on our robust capital program is underpinned by a healthy balance sheet and solid credit ratings. We announced a $2.05 billion minority investment in our Indiana utility, where we will remain majority owner and sole operator. This private equity investment by a reputable infrastructure investor demonstrates the premium valuation of our regulated utilities addresses all equity needs for the next 5 years and supports a strong balance sheet that allows access to low-cost capital. The equity from the Indiana transaction, along with our overall financing plan, allows us to maintain a healthy credit profile, targeting a consolidated FFO to debt ratio of 14%.

轉到第13張投影片。健康的資產負債表和穩健的信用評級是我們執行穩健資本計劃的基礎。我們宣布對位於印第安納州的公用事業公司進行20.5億美元的少數股權投資，我們將繼續作為該公司的多數股權所有者和唯一營運商。這項由信譽良好的基礎設施投資者進行的私募股權投資，反映了我們受監管公用事業公司的溢價估值，滿足了未來五年的所有股權需求，並支持了強勁的資產負債表，從而能夠獲得低成本資本。印第安納州交易中的股權，加上我們的整體融資計劃，使我們保持了健康的信用狀況，目標是將合併後的營運現金流（FFO）與債務比率控制在14%。

Before we open it up for questions, let me close with Slide 14. We are positioned to deliver results for our shareholders and are confident in the 2021 base year EPS guidance and robust capital plan we have laid out for you. Our focus on the future, sound investment strategy and demonstrated dexterity position us to consistently deliver within our increased 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2025. Our commitment to the dividend remains unchanged. We understand how important it is to our shareholders and that's why 2021 will mark the 95th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend. We intend to keep growing the Duke Energy dividend, balancing our desire to offer investors a strong payout with our need to fund our capital plans.

在開始提問之前，請允許我以第14張投影片作為結束。我們致力於為股東創造業績，並對2021年基準年每股收益指引和我們為您制定的穩健資本計劃充滿信心。我們著眼於未來，擁有穩健的投資策略和卓越的靈活性，這使我們能夠在2025年之前持續實現5%至7%的長期每股收益成長率。我們對股息的承諾保持不變。我們深知股利對股東的重要性，因此2021年將是杜克能源連續第95年支付季度現金股利。我們計劃繼續提高杜克能源的股息，在為投資者提供豐厚回報的願望與為資本計劃提供資金的需求之間取得平衡。

As Lynn said in our opening remarks, 2020, the early part of 2021 have been transformative for Duke Energy and we lean into the next decade with anticipation and resolve to achieve our goals for our customers and our shareholders.

正如林恩在開幕詞中所說，2020 年和 2021 年初對杜克能源來說是變革性的一年，我們滿懷期待和決心邁向下一個十年，為我們的客戶和股東實現我們的目標。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

好了，我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go first to Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員指示）我們將首先與古根漢合夥公司一起前往 Shar Pourreza。

So a couple of quick questions here. When -- obviously, you highlight some factors that would provide upside to the base plan, like through acceleration of clean energy, federal legislation.

這裡有幾個快速問題。顯然，您強調了一些可以為基本計劃帶來好處的因素，例如透過加速清潔能源、聯邦立法。

So to the extent that these items require incremental CapEx, would you kind of consider monetizing additional stakes that you opcos like Indiana similar to the GIC deal versus maybe tapping traditional financing like equity? Obviously, the demand is there for these strategies and the transaction multiple was certainly healthy versus where your stock trades.

那麼，鑑於這些項目需要增加資本支出，您是否會考慮將您在印第安納州等營運公司持有的額外股份變現，類似於GIC交易，而不是利用股權等傳統融資方式？顯然，這些策略是有需求的，而且與貴公司股票的交易價格相比，交易倍數也相當健康。

Yes. So Shar, thank you for that question. And as we look at the $60 billion -- $59 billion, $60 billion of capital in front of us, we saw this transaction as an attractive investment. It gave us an opportunity to eliminate common stock, as you said, at a valuation that was attractive to our investors and, frankly, recognize the value where we operate in Indiana.

是的。 Shar，謝謝你的提問。考慮到我們面前的600億美元——590億美元，600億美元的資本，我們認為這筆交易是一項很有吸引力的投資。正如你所說，它讓我們有機會以對投資者有吸引力的估值出售普通股，坦白說，也讓我們認識到我們在印第安納州的營運價值。

I would say, as we look at this 5-year period, we feel like we've got a pretty strong capital plan. There may be some upside in the back part of the plan, Shar, but I'd look at the Clean Energy transition that's underway, we have some work to do in 2021 and 2022 to lay further groundwork. And so that escalation will be towards the end of the 5-year, continuing over the rest of the decade. We will always look for attractive ways to finance growth. And I think we've demonstrated that with this transaction, but don't have anything in the near term that I would point to. Just reinforce that finding attractive low-cost capital to underpin growth is always an objective, and we're really pleased with what we were able to accomplish with this transaction.

我想說，回顧這五年期，我們覺得自己的資本計畫相當強勁。 Shar，計劃的後半部分可能還有提升空間，但我會關注正在進行的清潔能源轉型，我們在2021年和2022年還有一些工作要做，以奠定進一步的基礎。因此，這種升級將在五年期末進行，並持續到下一個十年。我們將始終尋找有吸引力的融資方式來支持成長。我認為我們已經透過這筆交易證明了這一點，但短期內我並沒有什麼可以指出的。我只想強調，找到有吸引力的低成本資本來支撐成長始終是我們的目標，我們對這筆交易所的成果感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then obviously, you highlight the higher growth rate and the movement you're seeing in North Carolina. And obviously, there's been recommendations provided by working groups in the state. I'm wondering how sort of the North Carolina Clean Energy legislation could impact sort of this updated growth trajectory. Should investors sort of look at it as simply as an extend the runway scenario? Or could it actually be accretive to that growth to maybe accelerated spending opportunities, less regulatory lag? I mean, obviously, we're assuming that you get some ROE bands, PVRs, gets approved. But -- so how do we sort of think about the legislation in light of the updated growth?

明白了。然後，顯然，您強調了北卡羅來納州更高的成長率和您看到的動向。顯然，該州的工作小組也提出了一些建議。我想知道北卡羅來納州的清潔能源立法會對這種更新的成長軌跡產生什麼影響。投資者是否應該將其簡單地視為延長跑道的方案？或者它實際上是否能夠促進這種成長，例如加速支出機會，減少監管落後？我的意思是，顯然，我們假設您獲得一些股本回報率區間、股東價值比（PVR）並獲得批准。但是——那麼，鑑於更新後的成長情況，我們該如何看待這項立法？

Sure. Shar, the first thing I'd like to do is express the confidence we have in achieving 5% to 7%. It has been grounded in not only strong franchise growth, the regulatory certainty we've been able to achieve, including the recent settlement with EAG. The investment opportunities we talked about on decarbonizing and then our ability to control costs, coupled with the transaction with GIC eliminating equity, gives us a really solid foundation for 5% to 7%.

當然。 Shar，首先我想表達的是，我們對實現5%至7%的獲利目標充滿信心。這不僅基於強勁的特許經營成長，也基於我們能夠實現的監管確定性，包括最近與EAG達成的和解。我們談到的脫碳投資機會，以及我們控製成本的能力，再加上與GIC達成的股權削減交易，這些都為我們實現5%至7%的盈利目標奠定了堅實的基礎。

So I'd look at what we've put in front of you is a capital plan and a strategy with a high degree of confidence to achieve 5% to 7%. I think the ability to reach that top end to keep going would include faster acceleration of generation transition, perhaps faster economic recovery. I'd put in that list also. Shar, we're seeing such incredible customer growth in the areas that we serve because of population migration. That could be another item that would be a surprise to the upside in a good way.

所以我會認真考慮我們擺在各位面前的資本計畫和策略，並充滿信心地實現5%到7%的成長率。我認為，要達到這個最高目標並持續發展，需要加速發電轉型，或許還需要加速經濟復甦。我也會把這些因素也列入考慮。 Shar，由於人口遷移，我們服務的地區客戶成長非常驚人。這可能是另一個帶來驚喜的因素，但效果是好的。

Sustainable cost savings. As we continue the digital transformation, continue grid modernization, continue retirement of the coal fleet, all of those things will give us an opportunity to continue to drive O&M out.

可持續的成本節約。隨著我們持續推動數位轉型、電網現代化、煤電廠的淘汰，所有這些都將為我們繼續推動維運工作提供機會。

And I do think regulatory lag, if we can find a way to lessen it, the growth is going to be strengthened. And so I come to this discussion with a lot of confidence, and we have a plan that we'll achieve the 5% to 7% and we'll continue to work on the legislation and regulatory reform in a way that will complement the growth and perhaps enhance it, if it moves more quickly.

我確實認為，如果我們能找到緩解監管落後的方法，經濟成長將會加強。因此，我滿懷信心地參與此次討論，我們有一個實現5%到7%增長目標的計劃，並且我們將繼續致力於立法和監管改革，以補充經濟增長，如果進展更快，或許還能促進經濟增長。

Terrific. And then just lastly for me, Lynn, in your discussions with stakeholders, are you finding sort of an alignment with the governor and key legislators here? And what's kind of the next data point we should be watching out for?

太棒了。最後，琳恩，在您與利益相關者的討論中，您是否與州長和主要立法者達成了某種共識？我們應該關注的下一個數據點是什麼？

We have been at work on this chart. We talked about for some time and have been engaged actively with stakeholders really building alignment around a common goal, common objectives. And those objectives include moving away from coal, carbon reduction, regulatory mechanisms that incent that move and then, of course, increased investment in renewable, all within the construct of maintaining reliability and affordability.

我們一直在研究這張圖表。我們討論了一段時間，並積極與利害關係人合作，真正圍繞共同目標達成共識。這些目標包括擺脫煤炭、減少碳排放、建立激勵這一轉變的監管機制，當然還有增加對再生能源的投資，所有這些都是在維持可靠性和可負擔性的前提下進行的。

So I think the common objectives really provide a really strong foundation to move forward. So we're working to advance those objectives. And we will continue to provide updates along the way. The session that is underway right now, there will be some milestones in April around potential introduction of bills.

所以我認為共同目標確實為未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。我們正在努力推進這些目標。我們將繼續提供最新進展。目前正在進行的會議，將在4月份圍繞可能提出的法案取得一些里程碑式的進展。

But what I would point to is, with common objectives with the desire to create momentum on carbon reduction, I think that alignment provides a great foundation for moving forward.

但我想指出的是，有了共同的目標，有了減少碳排放的願望，我認為這種一致性為前進提供了良好的基礎。

Terrific. Congrats, and I'll jump back in the queue.

太棒了！恭喜！我這就回去排隊。

And we'll go next to Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們來談談摩根士丹利的史蒂芬伯德 (Stephen Byrd)。

I wanted to talk about the prospects for further federal legislation supporting clean energy. I guess we're growing more optimistic that we may see kind of a round 2 of legislative support this summer into the fall where Congress might further extend the duration of tax credits for wind and solar and potentially add a new tax credit for energy storage. And as you think about that, those kinds of elements of support, how do you think about that in terms of your longer-term resource planning? Could that have an impact in terms of just kind of thinking through the economic cost of renewable energy?

我想談談進一步支持清潔能源的聯邦立法的前景。我想我們越來越樂觀地認為，今年夏天到秋天我們可能會看到第二輪立法支持，國會可能會進一步延長風能和太陽能的稅收抵免期限，並可能增加新的儲能稅收抵免。您如何看待這些支持措施，從長期資源規劃的角度來看待它們？這會對再生能源的經濟成本產生影響嗎？

Stephen, I think it will. And I think all of that is the benefit of our customers in our regulated jurisdictions. And so as you look at even the integrated resource plans that we shared in the fall, those were predicated on the tax policy that existed at that time. And so extensions could be valuable. I think credits around battery storage, electric vehicles, all of those represent opportunities to continue the Clean Energy transition. So I would say we'll watch it closely.

史蒂芬，我認為會的。我認為所有這些都是為了我們受監管轄區內客戶的利益。所以，即使是我們在秋季分享的綜合資源計劃，那些計劃也是基於當時的稅收政策制定的。因此，延期可能會很有價值。我認為圍繞電池儲能、電動車等的稅收抵免，所有這些都代表著繼續清潔能源轉型的機會。所以，我會密切注意。

Okay. Very good. And then maybe just thinking about offshore wind, if the decision was made at the state level to start to sort of at least explore or pursue offshore wind, how do you sort of think about next steps? I'm just not familiar enough with sort of the technical feasibility of offshore wind. What kind of early steps you might take if the decision was made that the state wants to go in that direction?

好的。非常好。那麼，說到離岸風電，如果州級決定至少開始探索或發展離岸風電，您覺得下一步該怎麼做？我對離岸風電的技術可行性還不夠了解。如果州政府決定朝這個方向發展，您會採取哪些早期措施？

Stephen, we've been working on the potential for offshore wind for some time, not only in terms of the obvious issues around leases and location of leases, but also transmission infrastructure that will need to accompany that. Where in the Carolinas, in particular, the load centers are further west than the coast, so finding an appropriate transmission path would be important.

史蒂芬，我們研究離岸風電的潛力已經有一段時間了，不僅涉及租賃和租賃地點等顯而易見的問題，還涉及隨之而來的輸電基礎設施。尤其是在卡羅來納州，電力負載中心比海岸更靠西，因此找到合適的輸電路徑至關重要。

I think there's been more conversation in the Carolinas. The governor has joined with other mid-Atlantic governors signing an MoU to say, "Let's spend more time figuring this out." There's a study underway to look at the impact to economic development. And so I would say we're monitoring all of this closely. I would think about it as maybe a late 2020, 2030 opportunity in the Carolinas. But nonetheless, we are supportive of finding ways to bring wind into the state as a complement to the solar and nuclear resources that we have that are carbon-free. So I think more to come on that, Stephen, as some of these exploratory processes bear fruit.

我認為北卡羅來納州的討論已經增加了。州長已經與其他中大西洋地區的州長簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，表示「讓我們花更多時間解決這個問題」。目前正在進行一項研究，探討其對經濟發展的影響。因此，我們正在密切關注這一切。我認為這或許是北卡羅來納州在2020年末或2030年的一個機會。儘管如此，我們仍然支持尋找將風能引入該州的方法，作為我們現有的無碳太陽能和核能資源的補充。所以，史蒂芬，隨著一些探索性進程取得成果，我認為我們會在這方面做出更多努力。

It's well taken. It's a long lead time to kind of think through these issues for offshore wind. Maybe last question, just on the commercial renewables business. I was just curious, your latest thinking in terms of the competitive dynamics in renewables. Are you seeing any sort of trends in terms of increased competition? We're just anecdotally hearing some degree of increased competition, and I'm just kind of curious what you all are seeing on that side of the business.

理解得很好。要徹底思考離岸風電的這些問題，需要很長的時間。最後一個問題，關於商業再生能源業務。我很好奇，您對再生能源競爭動態的最新看法是什麼？您是否看到了競爭加劇的趨勢？我們只是偶爾聽到一些傳聞，競爭確實有所加劇，我很好奇大家對再生能源業務的看法。

Stephen, we see it as competitive. It's been competitive for some time. It's hard to delineate. Is it a little bit more competitive? So from our standpoint, we stay very disciplined on the cost of capital, the returns that we want and have a combination of development around the U.S., but also really focused on how we can grow renewables within our own jurisdictions. But I think it's a fair comment. There's a lot of interest in investment moving into renewable energy and that, by its nature, will create competition.

史蒂芬，我們認為競爭很激烈。競爭已經持續了一段時間了。很難界定。競爭會更激烈一些嗎？所以從我們的角度來看，我們對資本成本和我們想要的回報非常嚴格，並且在美國各地進行綜合開發，同時也非常專注於如何在我們自己的管轄範圍內發展可再生能源。但我認為這是合理的。人們對投資再生能源很感興趣，而這本質上會帶來競爭。

We'll go next to Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們來談談 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

So just wanted to go back to a prior question, which I'm not sure was answered on the North Carolina Governor's kind of discussions and the like and just next steps. Is there still going to be kind of a report that comes out from that? And then when would we likely see legislation proposed?

所以我想回到之前的問題，我不確定關於北卡羅來納州州長的討論以及後續步驟的問題是否已經得到解答。之後還會有報告出來嗎？我們什麼時候可能會看到立法提案？

Sure. And Steve, on the specific question of the report, there were 2 processes. So the regulatory reform report is out. This is the one that talks about multiyear rate plans, performance incentives, really a strong endorsement. The regulatory reform is important to incenting movement. So that one is out and discussions, of course, continue on that.

當然。史蒂夫，關於報告的具體問題，有兩個流程。監理改革報告已經發布。這份報告討論了多年期費率計劃和績效激勵措施，這確實是一個強有力的支持。監理改革對於激勵行動至關重要。所以這份報告已經發布，當然，關於這方面的討論仍在繼續。

The carbon policy report, which is the one that's been led by The Nicholas Institute should be coming any time. And I would think about it, Steve, as a data point that will be considered in the legislative session along with our IRPs, frankly, that has garnered a lot of stakeholder discussion. We don't expect that carbon policy report to include specific recommendations, but we believe it will be a discussion of retirement of coal, carbon pricing, clean energy standard, et cetera.

尼古拉斯研究所牽頭的碳政策報告應該隨時都會發布。史蒂夫，我認為它會成為一個數據點，與我們的綜合資源計劃（IRP）一起在立法會議上進行審議。坦白說，IRP已經引起了許多利害關係人的討論。我們預計碳政策報告不會包含具體的建議，但我們相信它會討論煤炭淘汰、碳定價、清潔能源標準等等。

And the stakeholders that have been involved in all of these processes, integrated resource plan, clean energy, policy discussions that the governor sponsored, the regulatory reform, all of those stakeholders have been working together quite well over the course of the year. And when I talked about common objectives, what I was really speaking to is a common objective that has come out of all of that. Common objectives around retirement of coal, common objectives around increasing renewable, regulatory reform, et cetera.

參與所有這些進程的利益相關者，包括綜合資源規劃、清潔能源、州長發起的政策討論以及監管改革，所有這些利益相關者在過去一年中一直合作良好。我所說的共同目標，其實是指所有這些進程最終形成的共同目標。包括煤炭淘汰的共同目標、增加再生能源的共同目標、監管改革等等。

So it's that bringing together of those common objectives that is being worked on to try to advance where we go from here, and I'm optimistic that we have a number of very informed stakeholder groups that have common views of positioning North Carolina for the future. And I think progress will come from that. There's also a keen focus in that group on reliability and affordability, which we also strongly endorse and come to the conversation with very low prices against national averages, and we'll be working actively to make sure we make progress within that construct as well.

因此，我們正在努力將這些共同目標結合起來，以推動我們未來的發展。我樂觀地認為，我們擁有一些非常了解情況的利害關係人團體，他們對北卡羅來納州的未來發展有著共同的看法。我相信這將帶來進展。該團體也非常關注可靠性和可負擔性，我們也強烈支持這一點，並在討論中提出了與全國平均水平相比非常低的價格。我們將積極努力，確保我們也能在這框架內取得進展。

Okay. That's good. And then just on the -- ignoring -- in the event that no law passes and if we're just kind of doing regulation in the Carolinas as we have it now, could you just give a sense of just how you would manage this kind of maybe increasing spend on the regulatory side? Is it just annual rate cases? Or how do you...

好的。很好。然後，如果……忽略……如果沒有法律通過，我們只是像現在這樣在卡羅萊納州進行監管，您能否介紹一下，您將如何處理這種可能增加監管方面的支出？只是按年收費嗎？或您如何…

Steve, I think it's important to maybe step back for a moment. When we put forward the integrated resource plan in the Carolinas, there were 6 scenarios. The base scenario, the one that's on the far left, is one that can be accomplished without any changes in regulation or legislation, et cetera. And the capital plan that we've put in front of you is really predicated on that base plan.

史蒂夫，我覺得有必要稍微回顧一下。當我們在卡羅萊納州提出綜合資源計畫時，提出了六種方案。最左邊的方案是基本方案，可以在不改變任何法規或立法等的情況下實現。我們擺在你們面前的資本計畫其實是以這個基本方案為基礎的。

So we believe the grid investment, the investments in generation that's included in our plan for the Carolinas can be executed. You could think about the overlay of legislation and perhaps new tools and maybe acceleration being incremental to what we've put in front of you. We thought it was prudent to put together a plan that we have a high degree of confidence to achieve under a variety of scenarios, but we'll work actively as we have over the last 1.5 years with stakeholders to find a way to meet those objectives.

因此，我們相信，我們為卡羅萊納州制定的計劃中包含的電網投資和發電投資是可以實現的。您可以考慮疊加立法、新工具，甚至加速我們提出的目標。我們認為，制定一個在各種情況下都有高度信心實現的計劃是明智之舉，但我們將像過去一年半一樣，積極與利益相關者合作，尋找實現這些目標的方法。

Great. One last quick one. Just the -- I think I heard Steve say the 5 -- when you look at the 5% to 7% growth rate, it's kind of consistent over the period roughly. Is that fair?

太好了。最後一個快速問題。我記得史蒂夫說過5%到7%的成長率，大致在這段時間內是一致的。這樣合理嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

That's right. That's fair.

沒錯，這很公平。

That's correct.

沒錯。

And we'll go next to Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

接下來我們請美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 演講。

Congratulations again. Perhaps just a follow-up on this because I want to understand. So you talk about legislation and having worked for years to try to get the stakeholders at the curve. But at the same time, we talked about this IRP pending for the commission. Can you talk about how those 2 processes work as best you understand right now? I mean, let's say, for instance, we don't get legislation. How does the IRP proceed in that case and perhaps the overlap in timing critically as you think about April versus the IRPs necessarily (inaudible)?

再次恭喜您。我想進一步了解一下。您談到立法，並多年來一直努力讓利害關係人了解最新情況。但同時，我們也談到了委員會正在審議的IRP。您能否就您目前所了解的情況，談談這兩個流程是如何運作的？比如說，假設我們沒有獲得立法。在這種情況下，IRP將如何進行？您認為4月份和IRP之間時間上的重疊至關重要（聽不清楚）？

Sure. I mean, Julien, I would think of these things has been complementary. The stakeholder group has been involved in the IRPs, the stakeholder group has been involved in the Clean Energy policy discussions -- or there's a high degree of overlap. And so let's talk a little bit about the IRP because we haven't visited about that in this call.

當然。朱利安，我認為這些事情是互補的。利害關係人團體參與了綜合資源計劃 (IRP)，利益相關者團體也參與了清潔能源政策討論——或者說，兩者高度重疊。所以我們來談談綜合資源計劃 (IRP)，因為我們在這次電話會議上還沒有討論過這個問題。

North Carolina will review the IRP comments due at the end of April. And we would expect an order from the North Carolina Commission yet this year, probably in the fall. And the North Carolina Commission doesn't approve, but rather provide comments, perspectives on what they've seen. And so it becomes a data point, right, not only for the legislative process, but also for the commission on how we're thinking about the future. And stakeholder parties will have an opportunity to weigh in and discuss.

北卡羅來納州將審查4月底到期的IRP意見。我們預計北卡羅來納州委員會今年會發布命令，可能是在秋季。北卡羅來納州委員會不會批准，而是提供意見，並根據他們所見所聞提出看法。因此，它不僅成為立法程序的數據點，也成為委員會思考未來發展方向的數據點。利害關係人將有機會參與討論。

In South Carolina, the IRP will be approved or reviewed and an order will be issued by the commission. This is consistent with Act 62, which you may remember, being a requirement in South Carolina. We believe our IRP conforms with those requirements, extensive stakeholder engagement and analysis of coal retirements and analysis of rate impact. So we should expect to hear from the South Carolina Commission in June.

在南卡羅來納州，綜合資源計劃 (IRP) 將獲得批准或審查，並由委員會發布命令。這與第 62 號法案相符，您可能還記得，該法案是南卡羅來納州的一項要求。我們認為，我們的綜合資源計劃 (IRP) 符合這些要求，包括廣泛的利害關係人參與、對煤炭退役的分析以及對費率影響的分析。因此，我們預計將於 6 月收到南卡羅來納州委員會的回應。

The legislative session, the bills would be introduced in this legislative session in April. Crossover dates are in May. So the legislative session is also running, Julien, in the first half of the year. And so I would think about all these things as complementary. The same people at the table talking about the same objectives, lowering carbon, building renewables, grid investment, regulatory reform. And we will keep you informed along the way as milestones are achieved and feedback is received, but I'm optimistic about -- informed for the stakeholders coming together with shared objectives.

立法會議，這些法案將在四月份的立法會議上提出。交叉日期是五月。所以，朱利安，立法會議也將在今年上半年舉行。所以我認為所有這些事情都是相輔相成的。同一批人坐在一起討論相同的目標：降低碳排放、建造再生能源、電網投資、監管改革。我們會隨時向大家通報進展，了解所取得的階段性成果和收到的回饋。但我對利害關係人齊心協力、實現共同目標感到樂觀。

Got it. Excellent. And perhaps a follow-up on the consistency of the 5% to 7%, if I can, quickly.

明白了。太好了。如果可以的話，或許可以盡快跟進5%到7%的一致性。

Sure.

當然。

Can you comment about the -- on the earned ROE trend across the years? I'm thinking Carolinas, obviously, you guys have a range established this year. Is that range broadly the same range through the forecasted period? Or how would you characterize that?

您能否評論一下這些年來的已獲淨資產收益率（ROE）趨勢？我想到了卡羅萊納，顯然你們今年已經確定了一個區間。這個區間與預測期間的區間大致相同嗎？或者您如何描述它？

Steve, do you want to...

史蒂夫，你想…

Yes. I think, broadly, it's going to be similar. We have a settlement proposal at a 9.6% ROE, but we've got a long track record in the Carolinas and across our entire footprint of being able to earn at or, in some years, certainly above our allowed returns through cost management, through working on wholesale-type transactions as well. So I think there are a number of mechanisms that are going to allow us to earn similar to what we've earned in the past on our regulated jurisdictions.

是的。我認為，整體來說，情況會差不多。我們有一個9.6%淨資產收益率的和解方案，但我們在卡羅來納州以及整個業務範圍內，透過成本管理以及批發類交易，長期以來一直能夠達到或在某些年份超過允許的收益。所以我認為，有一些機制可以讓我們獲得與過去在我們受監管的司法管轄區類似的利益。

We'll go next to Michael Weinstein with Crédit Suisse.

接下來我們來談談瑞士信貸的麥可韋恩斯坦。

On the same topic, could you comment a little bit about the ROE projection you guys have in there for 2021 for Indiana and Ohio and as well both looking pretty low, trending towards lower numbers going forward? Sub-9%, sub-8% in Kentucky?

關於同一主題，您能否簡單談談您對印第安納州和俄亥俄州2021年淨值收益率（ROE）的預測？這兩個州的ROE看起來都很低，而且未來還有進一步下降的趨勢？肯塔基州的ROE預計低於9%，低於8%？

Yes. I have a couple of comments there. In Indiana, we just filed the -- we got a rate order in August in Indiana and that was a catch-up rate case. So what you see, when you've got a big base rate case that's built up, and in Indiana, we hadn't had a base rate case in quite a while. So you're building up a lot of investments there. And prior to that buildup, you're going to see the ROEs drop a bit. And then you have a catch-up, and we've got the solid ROE in Indiana going forward.

是的。我有幾個評論。在印第安納州，我們剛剛提交了——我們在8月收到了利率令，這是一個追趕利率案例。所以你會看到，當你有一個累積的大型基準利率案例時，而在印第安納州，我們已經很久沒有基準利率案例了。所以你在那裡累積了大量的投資。在累積之前，你會看到淨資產收益率（ROE）略有下降。然後你會看到一個追趕利率，而印第安納州未來的淨資產收益率（ROE）將保持穩健。

We'll be able to optimize around that and earn very well there.

我們將能夠圍繞這一點進行優化並獲得豐厚的收益。

Ohio is a similar situation. When you have a base rate case, you'll build up investments up to that point and then the new rates will work on the return. So you'll see some movements around a rate case like that. But over a broad period, as you've seen in the work across our footprint, we've been very capable of earning our allowed returns on a growing rate base. And we've done that through periods where we've had more frequent rate cases and periods where we've had less frequent rate cases. And that's where you utilize your capital optimization between rate cases and cost control to keep the returns solid. So we'll continue to have those capabilities.

俄亥俄州的情況也類似。當你有一個基準利率案例時，你會累積投資直到達到該點，然後新的利率將對回報產生影響。所以你會看到圍繞這種利率案例的一些變動。但從廣義上講，正如你在我們業務範圍內的工作中所看到的，我們一直非常有能力在不斷增長的利率基礎上獲得允許的回報。無論是利率案例較多的時期，或是利率案例較少的時期，我們都做到了這一點。這就是你利用利率案例之間的資本優化和成本控制來維持穩定回報的地方。因此，我們將繼續保持這些能力。

Are you planning on having a base rate case in Indiana? Is that...

你打算在印第安納州開立基準利率案件嗎？是嗎…

I didn't see that much. No.

我沒看到那麼多。沒有。

Not in the near term.

短期內不會。

Not in the near term. We've caught up those investments. Most of our growth will be coming through TDSIC in the environmental rider. So it's a very efficient jurisdiction going forward here.

短期內不會。我們已經收回了這些投資。我們的大部分成長將透過環境附加條款中的TDSIC實現。因此，這是一個非常有效率的司法管轄區。

So you think -- you think it will improve after 2021, basically, the ROEs in that state?

所以您認為——您認為 2021 年後該州的 ROE 基本上會有所改善嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And how is the 5% to 7% growth CAGR weighted? Is that a steady growth rate throughout the period to 2025? Or is that back end...

5% 到 7% 的複合年增長率是如何衡量的？這是 2025 年期間的穩定成長率嗎？還是說只是後端…

I would think about it as a steady growth rate, 5%.

我認為這是一個穩定的成長率，5%。

Yes.

是的。

Right. And dividend growth, I know that we're still in that slower than EPS growth period. Is that expected to continue given the high grid -- or high CapEx programs that you have?

是的。至於股息成長，我知道我們仍然處於低於每股盈餘成長的時期。考慮到你們的高電網成本或高資本支出項目，這種情況預計會持續下去嗎？

I think certainly in the near term, Michael, and then we'll evaluate it as we get deeper into the 5-year plan. The growth shows up, the payout ratio comes down a bit. So we understand the importance of a growing dividend, and we'll continue to look at that right balance between growth of capital and growth in the dividend.

邁克爾，我認為短期內肯定會如此，然後隨著五年計劃的深入，我們會進行評估。成長顯現，派息率會略有下降。所以我們理解股息成長的重要性，我們將繼續關注資本成長和股息成長之間的平衡。

We'll go next to Jonathan Arnold with Vertical.

接下來我們來和 Vertical 一起採訪喬納森·阿諾德 (Jonathan Arnold)。

Just to revisit this question of what's in the plan, and you said pretty clearly that the low end, the left-hand end of the Carolinas transition, the IRP proposals is what's in your plan and your CapEx. Does that apply -- how would you sort of tie that to the sort of second half of the decade where you've got this $65 billion to $75 billion 5-year spend for '25 through '29? Just curious if that's still the case. Or is that you're starting to sort of dip into acceleration there?

再說一下計劃內容的問題。您說得很清楚，卡羅萊納州過渡期的低端，也就是左端，IRP提案就是您的計畫和資本支出。這適用嗎？您如何將其與2025年至2029年五年期650億至750億美元的支出連結起來？我只是好奇現在情況是否仍然如此。還是說您已經開始加速推進了？

Well, what we reflected in that second half of the decade the range of $65 billion to $75 billion represented, again, the low end scenarios of carbon reduction versus the higher, more aggressive carbon reduction. So as we learn more about the pacing that the state wants to go through, we project that we'd be somewhere in that range, depending on that pacing of the $65 billion to $75 billion as you move into that second 5-year period.

嗯，我們在這個五年後半段所反映的650億美元到750億美元的範圍，再次代表了碳減排的低端情景，而不是更高、更積極的碳減排情景。因此，隨著我們進一步了解該州希望採取的步調，我們預計在進入第二個五年期時，我們的支出將處於這個範圍內，具體取決於650億美元到750億美元的步調。

And Jonathan, the -- even the base plan of the IRP includes over 50% carbon reduction and includes quite a bit of transition of generation, retirement of coal and renewables. And so as Steve indicated, we'll learn more around pace, in particular, as we go through the next few months and hear from commissions, et cetera. And the $75 billion would be the more aggressive kind of to the 70%-type range. But even the day plan has a very healthy growth rate within that range.

喬納森，即使是綜合再生能源計畫（IRP）的基礎計畫也包含超過50%的碳減排，以及相當一部分發電轉型、煤炭和再生能源的淘汰。正如史蒂夫所說，我們將在接下來的幾個月裡，以及聽取委員會等的意見，以了解更多關於進度的資訊。 750億美元的規模將是更激進的，接近70%的規模。但即使是日間計劃，其成長率也非常健康。

Okay. Great. And then obviously, '25, you already have a number out for. So that $65 billion to $75 billion implies quite a material step-up really in the back -- very closer to the back end of the decade. Is that the right way to think about it? Or is it a '25 number that could be in play if things decide to move faster, I guess?

好的。太好了。那麼，顯然，25年，你已經有一個數字了。所以650億美元到750億美元意味著後期會有相當大的實質成長——非常接近2025年的末期。這樣想對嗎？或者，如果情況決定加快發展，25年的數字可能會發揮作用，我猜？

I think '25 could be in play. Jonathan, I think about it in this way. It takes a little bit of time to develop site permit generation. But as we think about this is 2021, by the time 2025 rolls around, we will have a clearer picture on that. And coal retirements go along with it. And so we'll be into a deeper amount of coal being retired in that back part of the decade. And so you'll be building generation to replace in that way. So we'll know more and, of course, update these expectations all along the way.

我認為2025年可能會有。喬納森，我是這樣想的。開發場地許可發電量需要一些時間。但考慮到這是2021年，到2025年左右，我們會對此有更清晰的認識。煤炭的退役也會隨之而來。因此，在2025年後期，我們將面臨更多煤炭退役。這樣一來，我們就可以建造發電設施來取代現有的發電設施。因此，我們會了解更多信息，當然，也會在整個過程中不斷更新這些預期。

Okay. And if I just may, one other thing. It looked like there was a fair step-up in what you're categorizing as maintenance CapEx in the 5-year plan, a couple of billion versus last year. Is that a categorization issue? Or is it different spend? Or what's going on there?

好的。請容許我再說一件事。看起來，你們在五年計畫中歸類為維護資本支出的項目比去年增加了幾十億美元。這是分類問題嗎？還是支出有所不同？或是這裡面到底是怎麼回事？

Nothing singular there. I just think we're looking at the maintenance of the nuclear facilities and the grid facilities as we modernize the grid. There's more CapEx of maintenance nature in those areas -- in those 2 specific areas.

這沒什麼特別的。我只是覺得，隨著電網現代化，我們正在考慮核設施和電網設施的維護。這兩個特定領域的維護性資本支出會更多。

And Jonathan, we did do a little bit of changing our profile around maintenance, outages and other things in 2020 because of COVID. And so I believe some of that will also be movement of outage and investment that goes with it into '21, consistent with the challenges of the year.

喬納森，由於新冠疫情的影響，我們在2020年確實對維護、停駛和其他方面的安排做了一些調整。因此，我相信，這些調整也會影響2021年的停運和投資，以應對今年面臨的挑戰。

We'll go next to Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將和 Evercore ISI 一起拜訪 Durgesh Chopra。

Hopefully, 2 quick questions. One, Steve, just -- can you remind us the tax optimization in 2020? You mentioned this in your drivers '21 over '20. What is that tax optimization? Any color on that front?

希望有兩個簡短的問題。第一，史蒂夫，你能提醒我們2020年的稅務優化嗎？你在2021年和2020年的駕駛指南中提到了這一點。什麼是稅收優化？有什麼具體細節嗎？

What we have done in 2020, we had worked on various efforts that lowered the effective tax rate a bit and that falls through and was part of the mitigation that was put in place. And it was probably around 0.5% on the effective tax rate reduction might have been in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 or so of mitigation that we got out of income taxes.

我們在2020年所做的工作，是採取了各種措施，略微降低了實際稅率，但最終還是落空了，這算是我們實施的減稅措施的一部分。實際稅率大概降低了0.5%，相當於我們減少了0.04美元到0.05美元的所得稅支出。

Durgesh, I would share with you that the tax team is always looking for ways to optimize taxes, whether at the state level, property taxes, federal tax, tax credits, research and development, et cetera. And so they were quite effective in 2020 with a variety of projects. But we are always looking for effective tax planning ideas.

Durgesh，我想告訴你，稅務團隊一直在尋找優化稅收的方法，無論是州一級的稅收、房產稅、聯邦稅、稅收抵免、研發等等。因此，他們在2020年透過各種計畫取得了相當有效的成果。但我們也一直在尋找有效的稅務規劃思路。

Got it. Sorry I was on mute. Understood. So it's more like a 2020 event. You're not modeling that going into 2021, but there may be opportunities, right? Is that the right way to look at it?

明白了。抱歉，我剛才靜音了。明白了。所以這更像是2020年的事件。你沒有為2021年的情況做模型，但可能有機會，對吧？這樣看待這個問題對嗎？

There are opportunities in 2021, but we expect them to be a bit less than what they were in 2020.

2021 年仍有機會，但我們預計機會會比 2020 年少一些。

Great. Understood. Perfect. And then just maybe quickly on the FFO to debt metric, if I have this correct, 2020 or the year past, we're targeting 15%. Now it's going to 14% for the next 5 years, and you mentioned there's some question versus sort of where agency thresholds are to kind of protect your rating. Can you just provide us a little bit of where is the floor? So how much cushion do you actually have versus the credit rating agency metrics?

很好，明白了，完美。然後我想快速談談營運資金與債務比率（FFO/dearth）指標，如果我沒記錯的話，2020年或過去一年，我們的目標是15%。現在，未來5年，這個數字將達到14%。您提到，存在一些問題，例如機構的評級門檻在哪裡，才能保護您的評級。能否稍微介紹一下這個門檻是多少？那麼，與信用評級機構的指標相比，您實際上有多少緩衝空間？

So I'll jump in, and Steve can follow on. The FFO has seen the impact of COVID. We also see the impact of our coal ash settlement with some near-term benefits that we offer to customers. And so as we look ahead and speaking to S&P, in particular, the range is 12% to 16%. We believe we'll be very solidly within that range and continue to believe a strong balance sheet. And our commitment to the balance sheet is important, and you see that with the recent GIC transaction. So I would talk about some of those near-term items that I've referenced there.

我現在就說到這裡，Steve 可以繼續跟進。 FFO 已經感受到了新冠疫情的影響。我們也看到了煤灰結算的影響，以及我們為客戶提供的一些短期收益。展望未來，特別是與標普的溝通中，我們了解到的區間是 12% 到 16%。我們相信，我們將非常穩固地維持在這個區間內，並繼續保持強勁的資產負債表。我們對資產負債表的承諾非常重要，這一點從最近的 GIC 交易就可以看出來。所以我想談談我之前提到的一些短期項目。

And Steve, how would you add?

史蒂夫，你會如何補充？

No, I think that's exactly right. We -- certainly, as we look forward, we've got COVID impacts that will continue into 2021 that affect the top line revenues, the coal ash settlement that was structured in a fashion to help customers there. But we think we can operate very comfortably within this range at the new rating, and we'll get very adequate access to capital.

不，我認為完全正確。當然，展望未來，新冠疫情的影響將持續到2021年，影響我們的營收，以及旨在幫助當地客戶的煤灰結算。但我們認為，在新的評級下，我們可以在這個範圍內非常輕鬆地運營，並且我們將獲得非常充足的資金。

And that concludes today's conference. I would like to turn it back over to Lynn Good for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的會議到此結束。我想把時間交還給Lynn Good，請她做補充發言或做結束演講。

Well, Hannah, thank you, and thanks to all of you who joined the call. We've had a lot of news here in 2021, all directed at building a strong foundation for growth in the future. And I look forward to engagement with you in the weeks and months ahead. And of course, the IR team is always available this afternoon if there are further questions. So thanks for your interest and investment in Duke Energy.

好的，漢娜，謝謝你，也謝謝所有參加電話會議的人。我們在2021年有許多新聞，都是為了為未來的成長奠定堅實的基礎。我期待在未來的幾週和幾個月裡與你們繼續交流。當然，如果你們還有其他問題，投資人關係團隊今天下午隨時可以回覆。感謝你們對杜克能源的關注與投資。

And that concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。