Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Duke Energy fourth quarter earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加杜克能源第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁傑克·沙利文。請開始。

Thank you, Samira. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Duke Energy's fourth quarter 2021 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; along with Steve Young, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝，薩米拉。大家早安，歡迎參加杜克能源2021年第四季財報回顧和業務更新會議。今天主持電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長林恩古德 (Lynn Good)，以及執行副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫楊 (Steve Young)。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements, and those factors are outlined herein and disclosed in Duke Energy's SEC filings. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures can be found in today's materials and on duke-energy.com. Please note the appendix for today's presentation includes supplemental information and additional disclosures.

今天的討論將涉及非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的使用以及證券法所定義的前瞻性資訊。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有所不同，這些因素已在本文概述，並在杜克能源提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中揭露。非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的對帳表可在今天的資料和 duke-energy.com 網站上找到。請注意，今天簡報的附錄包含補充資訊和額外揭露。

So with that, let's turn the call over to Lynn.

那麼，讓我們把電話交給 Lynn。

Jack, thank you, and good morning, everyone. During our call this morning, we're pleased to share our 2021 results and our outlook for 2022 and beyond, including progress on our clean energy transition. The fourth quarter capped off a strong finish to a very productive 2021 where we made great progress against our strategic and financial goals. As a result, today, we announced 2021 adjusted earnings per share of $5.24, putting us above the midpoint of our updated guidance range. We also announced our 2022 guidance range of $5.30 to $5.60 with a midpoint of $5.45, extending our 5% to 7% earnings growth rate through 2026, off the midpoint of our original 2021 guidance range.

傑克，謝謝你，大家早安。在今天早上的電話會議上，我們很高興分享我們2021年的業績以及對2022年及未來的展望，包括我們在清潔能源轉型方面的進展。第四季為2021年豐收的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，我們在實現策略和財務目標方面取得了巨大進展。因此，今天我們宣布2021年調整後每股收益為5.24美元，高於我們更新後的指引區間的中點。我們也宣布了2022年的指引區間為5.30美元至5.60美元，中點為5.45美元，這意味著我們預計2026年的獲利成長率將達到5%至7%，高於我們最初2021年指引區間的中點。

Our clean energy strategy requires significant investment, and we're now budgeting $63 billion in CapEx over the next 5 years, 80% of which represents investments toward our clean energy transition. This growing investment base in constructive and thriving jurisdictions give us confidence in our ability to earn within our 5% to 7% earnings guidance range throughout the next 5 years and in the top half of the range as our plan progresses. Steve will go into more details on our 2021 results and our updated 5-year financial plan.

我們的清潔能源策略需要大量投資，目前我們已為未來五年規劃了630億美元的資本支出預算，其中80%將用於清潔能源轉型。在建設性、蓬勃發展的地區不斷增長的投資基礎，讓我們有信心在未來五年內實現5%至7%的盈利預期，並隨著計劃的推進，實現盈利預期的上半部分。史蒂夫將詳細介紹我們2021年的業績和最新的五年財務規劃。

But before I turn the call over to him, I'd like to highlight some of the important strategic work underway.

但在我將電話轉給他之前，我想強調一下正在進行的一些重要策略工作。

2021 was a transformative year for our company. And in each of our 3 regions, we made meaningful progress, and we enter 2022 on strong footing. In North Carolina, leaders came together to pass House Bill 951. This landmark bipartisan legislation defines the state's clean energy transition and work is underway to implement it. The North Carolina Utilities Commission is developing rules on the performance-based ratemaking provisions in the legislation. We're confident the commission will adopt a balanced set of rules that provide flexibility to implement performance-based rates in a way that achieves policy goals and aligns with customer interest. We expect an order later this week.

2021年對我們公司來說是變革的一年。我們在三個地區都取得了意義非凡的進展，並將以強勁的勢頭邁入2022年。在北卡羅來納州，各級領導齊心協力，通過了眾議院第951號法案。這項具有里程碑意義的兩黨立法明確了該州的清潔能源轉型方向，目前正著手實施。北卡羅來納州公用事業委員會正在製定該法案中績效電價制定條款的規則。我們相信，委員會將制定一套平衡的規則，為績效電價的實施提供靈活性，以實現政策目標並符合客戶利益。我們預計本週晚些時候將收到訂單。

The North Carolina Commission is also developing rules related to the securitization of 50% of subcritical coal plants upon their early retirements. We proposed a set of rules consistent with the North Carolina storm securitization bonds we issued last fall. Those bonds will save customers approximately 35% or $300 million over the next 20 years. We expect an order on securitization by mid-April.

北卡羅來納州委員會也正在製定與提前退役的50%亞臨界燃煤電廠證券化相關的規則。我們提出了一套與去年秋季發行的北卡羅來納州風暴證券化債券一致的規則。這些債券將在未來20年內為客戶節省約35%或3億美元。我們預計4月中旬發布證券化命令。

We plan to file our carbon plan in May after gathering stakeholder input over the next several months. HB 951 provides a framework to reach 70% carbon reduction by 2030 and the carbon plan will be a roadmap to achieve this objective. The plan we submit will have multiple portfolios that weigh the costs and benefits, including reliability and affordability of various resource types. We will also evaluate with stakeholders and our regulators the full range of potential risks and opportunities related to new clean energy technologies. We expect an order on the carbon plan by the end of this year.

我們計劃在未來幾個月收集利害關係人的意見後，於5月提交碳排放計畫。 HB 951法案提供了一個框架，旨在2030年實現70%的碳減排目標，而這份碳排放計畫將成為實現這一目標的路線圖。我們提交的計劃將涵蓋多個項目組合，用於權衡成本和收益，包括各種能源類型的可靠性和可負擔性。我們還將與利害關係人和監管機構一起評估與新型清潔能源技術相關的所有潛在風險和機會。我們預計碳排放計畫將於今年年底前獲得批准。

In Indiana, we submitted an IRP in December after extensive stakeholder engagement. As the largest generator in the state of Indiana, we are retiring more coal and adding more renewables than any other Indiana utility. Our preferred scenario reduces carbon emissions from our Indiana fleet by 63% by 2030 and 88% by 2040 compared to 2005 levels. It adds over 7 gigawatts of renewables over the 20-year horizon and accelerates the retirement of coal generation with a targeted exit from coal by 2035. This plan also includes natural gas and a prudent amount of market purchases for capacity and energy requirements. As is the case in all jurisdictions, we expect a robust review of all planned resource additions to achieve the environmental, reliability and affordability goals of the state. We will issue a request for proposal for new generation later this month.

在印第安納州，經過廣泛的利害關係人參與，我們於12月提交了一份綜合資源規劃 (IRP)。作為印第安納州最大的發電企業，我們淘汰的煤炭發電量比印第安納州任何其他公用事業公司都要多，新增的再生能源發電量也更多。我們首選的方案是，到2030年，印第安納州發電廠的碳排放量將比2005年的水準減少63%，到2040年減少88%。該方案將在20年內增加超過7吉瓦的再生能源發電量，並加速煤炭發電的淘汰，目標是2035年徹底淘汰煤炭發電。該計劃還包括天然氣和適度的市場採購，以滿足產能和能源需求。與所有轄區的情況一樣，我們期望對所有新增的能源計畫進行嚴格的審查，以實現該州的環境、可靠性和可負擔性目標。我們將於本月稍後發布一份關於新一代發電的招標書。

And following the RFP process, we will file CPCNs with the Indiana Commission later this year.

按照 RFP 流程，我們將於今年稍後向印第安納州委員會提交 CPCN。

In Florida, we received approval of the $1 billion Clean Energy Connection solar program, which calls for 750 megawatts over the next 3 years. We'll begin the first year of that program in 2022, along with completing the final solar projects under the SoBRA rider. To date, we've put approximately 600 megawatts of solar generation in service in Florida with another 150 megawatts currently under construction.

在佛羅裡達州，我們獲得了10億美元清潔能源連接太陽能專案的批准，該專案要求在未來三年內實現750兆瓦的發電量。我們將於2022年開始專案的第一年，同時完成SoBRA附加條款下的最後幾個太陽能專案。迄今為止，我們已在佛羅裡達州投入使用約600兆瓦的太陽能發電量，另有150兆瓦的發電量正在建設中。

Let me close by putting our progress and our plans for the future in the context of our climate strategy. Given the scale of our company, we're leading the industry's most ambitious clean energy transformation. This demands active engagement with regulators, policymakers, customers and stakeholders to make the vision a reality. It requires candid discussions about the appropriate energy policy for each state, recognizing the unique differences of existing resources, customer bases and policy objectives. It also requires a focus on keeping customer bills affordable, a critical variable as we pursue this transformation. We continue to make progress and are strongly positioned to achieve our clean energy vision.

最後，我想將我們的進展和未來計畫放在氣候策略的背景下進行闡述。鑑於我們公司的規模，我們正在引領業界最雄心勃勃的清潔能源轉型。這需要與監管機構、政策制定者、客戶和利害關係人積極互動，才能將願景變為現實。這需要就各州適用的能源政策進行坦誠的討論，並認識到各州現有資源、客戶群和政策目標的獨特差異。這也需要關注如何讓客戶負擔得起電費，這是我們推動這項轉型的關鍵因素。我們持續取得進展，並已做好充分準備，能夠實現我們的清潔能源願景。

Slide 6 captures our progress and the work underway. Let me share a few important highlights. We're executing the largest planned coal fleet retirement in our industry, targeting energy from coal to represent less than 5% by 2030 and full exit by 2035. Embedded within Duke Energy is a top 10 U.S. renewable energy company. We now own, operate or purchase more than 10,000 megawatts of solar and wind energy. We plan to reach 16,000 megawatts by 2025 and 24,000 megawatts by 2030. We've reduced our carbon emissions by 44% from 2005 levels, and we're on track to exceed 50% by 2030 and net 0 by 2050. We're actively engaged with policymakers and advocating for and piloting new clean energy technologies necessary to meet our net 0 goal.

幻燈片 6 展示了我們的進展和正在進行的工作。讓我分享一些重要的亮點。我們正在執行業內最大規模的煤炭機組退役計劃，目標是到 2030 年煤炭能源佔比低於 5%，到 2035 年完全退出。杜克能源是美國十大再生能源公司之一。我們目前擁有、營運或購買超過 10,000 兆瓦的太陽能和風能。我們計劃在 2025 年達到 16,000 兆瓦，到 2030 年達到 24,000 兆瓦。我們已將碳排放量在 2005 年的基礎上減少了 44%，並且預計到 2030 年超過 50%，到 2050 年實現淨零排放。我們正積極與政策制定者合作，倡導和試行實現淨零排放目標所需的新型清潔能源技術。

We're also stepping back and evaluating our climate goals more broadly as we engage with our shareholders and discuss the growing importance of Scope 2 and 3 emissions. And just yesterday, we announced we're expanding our net 0 goals to now include Scope 2 and certain Scope 3 emissions, such as upstream emissions related to procurement of fossil resources and downstream emissions from our natural gas customers' consumption. These initiatives will be a key focus area for our management team and across the entire company in 2022 and beyond.

我們也逐步回顧，更廣泛地評估我們的氣候目標，並與股東溝通，討論範圍二和範圍三排放日益增長的重要性。就在昨天，我們宣布將擴大淨零排放目標，現在涵蓋範圍二和某些範圍三排放，例如與採購化石資源相關的上游排放，以及來自天然氣客戶消費的下游排放。這些舉措將成為我們管理團隊以及整個公司在2022年及以後的重點領域。

We look forward to sharing more details about what it will take and the ways we're building upon our success to advance our long-term business strategy at our next ESG Day planned for October 4. I encourage you to join us for this interactive live streamed event. We accomplished a great deal in 2021. We delivered on our commitments while also strategically positioning the company for the future, derisking investments, simplifying our business and modernizing our regulatory frameworks. We have a clear vision to meet the needs of our customers and communities while remaining a strong steward of the environment. We believe this strategy will deliver strong, consistent and enduring benefits to our customers, communities and investors.

我們期待在計劃於10月4日舉行的下一屆ESG日活動上，分享更多關於推進長期業務戰略所需條件以及我們將如何在成功的基礎上繼續推進的細節。誠摯邀請您加入我們，觀看這場互動式直播活動。我們在2021年取得了豐碩的成果。我們兌現了承諾，同時也為公司的未來做好了策略定位，降低了投資風險，簡化了業務流程，並實現了監管框架的現代化。我們擁有一個清晰的願景，在滿足客戶和社區需求的同時，繼續成為環境的有力守護者。我們相信，這項策略將為我們的客戶、社區和投資者帶來強勁、持續和持久的利益。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Steve.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. 2021 marked a year of strong growth in our core businesses. As shown on Slide 7, our full year adjusted earnings per share was $5.24, above the midpoint of our revised guidance range. In the electric segment, we benefited from 2% volume growth, the full year impact of constructive rate case outcomes in North Carolina and Indiana, increases in Florida from their previous multiyear rate plan and solar installations and continued rider investment in the Midwest. Additionally, we met our goal of delivering $200 million in sustainable cost savings in 2021.

謝謝，Lynn，大家早安。 2021年是我們核心業務強勁成長的一年。如投影片7所示，我們全年調整後每股盈餘為5.24美元，高於我們修訂後的指引區間中點。在電力領域，我們受益於2%的銷售成長、北卡羅來納州和印第安納州建設性費率案結果對全年的影響、佛羅裡達州此前多年期費率計劃的提價、太陽能安裝量以及中西部地區持續的附加費投資。此外，我們也實現了2021年實現2億美元永續成本節約的目標。

In our gas LDC business, we saw higher results from Piedmont rate cases in North Carolina and Tennessee and contributions from customer growth and rider mechanisms. Results from commercial were lower due to fewer growth investments compared to 2020 and the impact of Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.

在我們的天然氣LDC業務中，北卡羅來納州和田納西州的Piedmont費率案例表現有所提升，客戶成長和附加條款機制也帶來了貢獻。商業業務的表現有所下降，原因是與2020年相比，成長投資有所減少，以及2021年2月冬季風暴Uri的影響。

Turning to Slide 8, we are introducing our $5.30 to $5.60 guidance range in 2022. For Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, we expect growth due to expansion in our robust service areas and earnings on infrastructure investments. Specifically, in Florida, we began the first year of our new multiyear rate plan, coupled with the benefits of strong customer growth. In the Carolinas, we will see earnings growth from new customers, grid investments and wholesale revenues. In the Midwest, we continue to benefit from the steady investment in T&D infrastructure.

翻到第8張投影片，我們推出了2022年5.30美元至5.60美元的指導價格區間。對於電力公用事業和基礎設施業務，我們預計由於我們穩健服務區域的擴張以及基礎設施投資帶來的收益，業務將實現成長。具體而言，在佛羅裡達州，我們已啟動新的多年期電價計畫的第一年，同時受益於強勁的客戶成長。在卡羅來納州，我們將看到來自新客戶、電網投資和批發收入的獲利成長。在中西部地區，我們將繼續受惠於輸配電基礎設施的穩定投資。

Our Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment is expected to benefit in 2022 from customer additions and integrity management investments as well as base rate increases following settlements approved in North Carolina and Kentucky.

我們的天然氣公用事業和基礎設施部門預計將在 2022 年受益於客戶增加和誠信管理投資，以及北卡羅來納州和肯塔基州批准的和解協議後的基本費率上漲。

In Commercial Renewables, we expect fewer projects in 2022 as we ramp up deployment of renewable assets in Florida and the Carolinas and provide breathing room to work through supply chain challenges. As such, the timing of some Commercial Renewables projects will shift within the 5-year plan.

在商業再生能源領域，我們預計2022年的專案數量將有所減少，因為我們將加強在佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州的再生能源資產部署力度，並為應對供應鏈挑戰提供喘息空間。因此，一些商業再生能源專案的實施時間將在五年規劃中有所調整。

Finally, we expect the Other segment to be unfavorable, primarily due to higher interest expense as we grow our energy investment base.

最後，我們預期其他部門的表現將不佳，主要是因為隨著我們擴大能源投資基礎，利息支出將會增加。

Turning to Slide 9. Let me touch on electric volumes and economic trends. Consistent with our updated guidance on our Q3 earnings call, we achieved 2% growth for total retail volumes. This includes residential load growth of 0.7%, helped by the continuation of remote work and strong customer growth of 1.6%. In fact, 3 of the states we serve were among the top 5 states for net population migration in 2021, strong evidence of our attractive growth profile. Since the pandemic began, approximately 200,000 new customers have moved into our service areas, boosting the need for energy infrastructure. Commercial and industrial sales rebounded nicely due to increased demand for goods across many sectors. We expect continued expansion in 2022 and project load growth to increase approximately 1.5% in 2022. After '22, we expect longer-term growth to moderate to flat to 0.5% per year.

翻到第9張投影片。讓我來談談用電量和經濟趨勢。與我們在第三季財報電話會議上更新的指引一致，我們的總零售量實現了2%的成長。這其中，得益於遠距辦公的持續發展和1.6%的強勁客戶成長，住宅負荷成長了0.7%。事實上，我們服務的州中有三個州在2021年淨人口遷移量排名前五的州之列，這有力地證明了我們具有吸引力的成長前景。自疫情爆發以來，約有20萬名新客戶遷入我們的服務區域，刺激了對能源基礎設施的需求。由於許多行業對商品的需求增加，商業和工業銷售強勁反彈。我們預計2022年將持續擴張，專案負載成長率將在2022年成長約1.5%。 2022年之後，我們預期長期成長率將放緩至持平，達到每年0.5%。

As I mentioned before, we delivered on our O&M target for 2021.

正如我之前提到的，我們實現了 2021 年的 O&M 目標。

On Slide 10, you will see the work we've undertaken to lower our cost structure and bolster our potential growth. Duke Energy is a leader in the industry when it comes to cost mitigation, driven by digital capabilities, data analytics and re-skilling our workforce. Since 2016, we have not just absorbed inflation, we have removed approximately $400 million of O&M, creating value for our customers and our shareholders. For every dollar of O&M we eliminate, we can invest about $7 of capital without increasing cost to customers. Our $400 million in savings over the past 5 years has created headroom for approximately $3 billion worth of capital projects with no incremental bill impacts.

在第10張投影片上，您將看到我們為降低成本結構和提升潛在成長所做的努力。杜克能源在成本控制方面處於行業領先地位，這得益於數位化能力、數據分析和員工技能再培訓。自2016年以來，我們不僅吸收了通貨膨脹的影響，還減少了約4億美元的運維成本，為客戶和股東創造了價值。我們每減少1美元的維運成本，就可以投資約7美元的資本，而不會增加客戶成本。過去5年，我們節省了4億美元，為約30億美元的資本項目創造了空間，且沒有增加任何費用。

Looking forward, we expect to hold O&M flat throughout our plans. We believe there are significant opportunities across the enterprise to further improve efficiencies, which could lower the O&M trajectory as we advance our fleet transition strategy, replacing coal assets with less O&M-intensive forms of generation is a perfect example of this and the investments we are making are designed to lower our cost structure while maintaining high standards of safety and reliability. Our size and scale remain key differentiators as we work to mitigate supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures across our cost structure.

展望未來，我們預計在整個計劃中，維運成本將保持穩定。我們相信，整個企業都存在著進一步提升效率的巨大機遇，隨著我們推動機組轉型策略，這可能會降低維運成本。以運維密集度較低的發電方式取代煤炭資產就是一個很好的例子。我們正在進行的投資旨在降低成本結構，同時保持高標準的安全性和可靠性。在我們努力緩解整個成本結構的供應鏈限制和通膨壓力之際，我們的規模和規模仍然是關鍵的差異化因素。

Turning to Slide 11, we expect to deploy over $130 billion over the next decade with $63 billion to occur over the next 5 years. This represents a $4 billion increase over our previous 5-year capital plan and strengthens our rate base growth to 6.5% to 7%. Approximately $52 billion or over 80% of our capital plan throughout 2026 will fund investments in our fleet transition and grid modernization. This will include improved reliability and resiliencies. We add more renewables to the system and extend the life of our carbon-free nuclear fleet to better serve our growing customer base.

翻到第11張投影片，我們預計未來十年將投入超過1,300億美元，其中630億美元將在未來五年內投入。這比我們之前的五年資本計畫增加了40億美元，並將我們的電價基數成長率提高到6.5%至7%。 2026年，我們資本計畫中約有520億美元（佔80%以上）將用於投資機組轉型和電網現代化。這將包括提高可靠性和彈性。我們將向系統中添加更多再生能源，並延長無碳核馬達組的使用壽命，以更好地服務我們不斷增長的客戶群。

As coal is phased out from our generation profile, it will be replaced with zero-carbon resources and prudent investments in cleaner natural gas. We formed strategic partnerships to study the long-term potential of hydrogen co-firing and storage, including a pilot program we launched this year, where we believe our natural gas units are well positioned to take advantage of hydrogen technology as it evolves.

隨著煤炭逐漸從我們的發電結構中退出，我們將用零碳能源和對更清潔天然氣的審慎投資來取代它。我們建立了戰略合作夥伴關係，以研究氫氣共燃和儲存的長期潛力，其中包括我們今年啟動的試點計畫。我們相信，我們的天然氣部門已做好準備，能夠利用不斷發展的氫能技術。

Turning to Slide 12. Our sizable capital plan, high-growth service territories, proven capability to control costs and constructive regulatory frameworks give us confidence in our ability to consistently grow earnings at 5% to 7%, and potential to earn at the top half of the range in the back half of the plan.

翻到第 12 張投影片。我們龐大的資本計劃、高成長的服務區域、經過驗證的成本控制能力和建設性的監管框架使我們有信心能夠持續以 5% 到 7% 的速度成長收益，並且有潛力在計劃的後半段實現收益達到上限。

Moving to Slide 13. Our ability to execute our robust capital program is underpinned by a healthy balance sheet and we remain committed to our current credit ratings. In September 2021, we received $1 billion in cash proceeds upon closing the first tranche of our minority interest sale of our Indiana utility. The second closing will occur by January 2023 and will result in another cash infusion of $1 billion. This combined $2 billion of proceeds provide good support to our credit metrics.

移至第 13 張投影片。健康的資產負債表支撐著我們執行穩健資本計畫的能力，我們也將繼續維持目前的信用評級。 2021 年 9 月，我們在印第安納州公用事業公司少數股權出售的第一階段交易完成後獲得了 10 億美元的現金收益。第二階段交易將於 2023 年 1 月完成，並將再次注入 10 億美元現金。總計 20 億美元的收益為我們的信用指標提供了良好的支撐。

We closed out 2021 in line with our 14% FFO-to-debt target, and we expect to maintain 14% in 2022 and beyond. Our financing needs are driven by our investments. And we have constructed a plan that achieves 5% to 7% earnings growth through 2026, while maintaining our current credit profile. Our current plan does not contemplate any additional common equity through 2026, but we will monitor a variety of things that may influence future needs, including the pace and size of our capital deployment, future regulatory outcomes and the potential for supportive tax policy. To the extent there becomes a need for additional equity, we will evaluate all options and pursue the ones that finance our growth in the most efficient manner and support our earnings growth trajectory.

2021年，我們達成了14%的營運資金與負債比率目標，並預計在2022年及以後將維持此水準。我們的融資需求由投資驅動。我們已製定計劃，力爭在2026年之前實現5%至7%的盈利增長，同時保持我們目前的信用狀況。我們目前的計劃不考慮在2026年之前增發任何普通股，但我們將密切關注可能影響未來需求的各種因素，包括資本配置的速度和規模、未來的監管結果以及潛在的支持性稅收政策。如果需要增發普通股，我們將評估所有方案，並尋求那些能夠以最有效的方式為我們的成長提供資金並支持我們獲利成長軌跡的方案。

Before we open it up for questions, let me close with Slide 14. Our focus on the future sound investment strategy and demonstrated dexterity offer a strong long-term growth proposition. Our commitment to the dividend remains unchanged. We understand how important it is to our shareholders, and that's why 2022 will mark the 96th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend. We intend to keep growing the dividend, balancing our desire to offer investors a strong 65% to 75% payout ratio with our need to fund our capital plan. 2021 was exceptionally productive and we have a strong momentum as we begin 2022. We look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

在開始提問之前，請允許我以第14張投影片作為結束。我們專注於未來穩健的投資策略，並展現出靈活的應變能力，這為我們提供了強勁的長期成長動力。我們對股利的承諾始終如一。我們深知股利對股東的重要性，因此2022年將是我們連續第96年支付季度現金股利。我們計劃繼續提高股息，在為投資者提供65%至75%強勁派息率的願望與滿足資本計劃資金需求之間取得平衡。 2021年我們取得了卓越的成果，在2022年開始，我們勢頭強勁。我們期待著向您報告全年的進展。接下來，我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員指示）我們將回答古根漢合夥公司的 Shar Pourreza 提出的第一個問題。

It's Jamieson Ward on for Shar. Lynn, at a high level, we were wondering how should we think about the carbon plan that you'll be filing in May versus what will become the final version in the order required by December 31? Who's going to be weighing in on it or contributing to it? And as a follow-up, how will it differ from, say, a traditional IRP?

傑米森沃德 (Jamieson Ward) 代表沙爾發言。林恩，從高層角度來說，我們想知道，我們應該如何看待您將在五月份提交的碳排放計劃，以及最終版本將在12月31日前按要求完成的情況？誰將參與其中或為其做出貢獻？接下來，它與傳統的綜合資源計劃 (IRP) 有何不同？

Well, Jamieson, thank you for that question, and the work is already underway to develop the plan. We had our first stakeholder meeting just a week or so ago and there are additional meetings planned. And I would share with you that it will be a review of the full range of existing and potential resources to achieve the objective. We envision putting forward multiple scenarios as we did in the 2020 IRP so that we have a good discussion of weighing costs and benefits of the various resource types. And it's also going to have good discussions about reliability and affordability, coupled with environmental achievement. So I would expect it to be somewhat similar in concept to what we produced in 2020, Jamieson, because it will be a variety of portfolios. But it's always well informed by our stakeholders and directed toward achieving what the legislature has set out for us, which is 70% carbon by reduction by 2030.

傑米森，謝謝你的提問，制定計劃的工作已經在進行中。我們大約一週前舉行了第一次利害關係人會議，之後還會安排更多會議。我想告訴你，這次會議將全面審查實現目標所需的現有和潛在資源。我們計劃像在2020年綜合資源規劃（IRP）中一樣，提出多種方案，以便我們充分討論權衡各種資源類型的成本和收益。此外，我們也會就可靠性、可負擔性以及環境效益進行深入討論。傑米森，我預計該計劃的概念會與我們在2020年提出的方案類似，因為它將包含多種投資組合。但該計劃始終充分聽取利害關係人的意見，並致力於實現立法機構為我們設定的目標，即到2030年將碳排放量減少70%。

Got it. Got it. And second question we had here was under the items to monitor on Slide 12, you mentioned supply chain constraints. At EEI back in November, the takeaway that people seem to have from meetings with both Duke and echoed by other large utilities was that you weren't really seeing much impact at that time from supply chain constraints. What's changed since EEI? And just another follow-up on that, how much of these supply chain constraints are specifically related to renewables? And then for the nonrenewable portion, what does that consist of?

明白了，明白了。我們這裡的第二個問題是，在第12張投影片的監控項目下，您提到了供應鏈限制。去年11月在EEI會議上，大家似乎從與杜克能源以及其他大型公用事業公司的會議中得出的結論是，當時您並沒有真正看到供應鏈限制帶來的太大影響。自EEI會議以來，情況發生了哪些變化？接下來我想問一下，這些供應鏈限制中有多少是與再生能源具體相關的？那麼，對於不可再生能源部分，它包含哪些內容呢？

Yes. It's a good question because it's a dynamic area. And I would say generally that the scope and scale of our company has positioned us really well on supply chain considerations. We've done a very good job of expanding our horizon to look at demand, leveraging long-term contracts, leveraging what we maintain in inventory. So we have not seen an impact on the majority if -- significantly, of the capital plans that we have in place. But we have experienced some impact from solar panels, and you'll see us. We talked a little bit about this in the third quarter call, evaluating what it might mean. We're pushing some projects, in Commercial Renewables in particular, to 2023. We've been able to achieve all of our dates of regulated renewables, however. So I would leave you with the fact that it's a dynamic area. There are areas where lead times are increasing, but we feel well positioned given the scale of the company and the approach that we're taking to manage what our customers require.

是的。這是個好問題，因為這是一個充滿活力的領域。總的來說，我想說，我們公司的業務範圍和規模使我們在供應鏈方面處於非常有利的地位。我們在拓展視野以洞察需求、利用長期合約和庫存方面做得很好。因此，我們現有的大部分資本計劃（即使不是很大）尚未受到影響。但我們受到了太陽能電池板的一些影響，你們會看到我們的影響。我們在第三季電話會議上談到了這一點，評估了這可能意味著什麼。我們正在將一些項目（尤其是商業再生能源項目）推遲到2023年。不過，我們已經實現了所有受監管再生能源項目的交付日期。所以，我想告訴你們，這是一個充滿活力的領域。有些領域的交付週期正在增加，但考慮到公司的規模以及我們管理客戶需求的方法，我們認為自己處於有利地位。

And we'll take our next question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 提出的下一個問題。

So maybe, if I can, maybe the first question is perhaps 2 parts. First, '22 guidance, you have a lot of interesting tailwinds here. O&M load growth accelerating, obviously, disappointing on the renewables, but that seems to be pervasive. Can you talk about maybe latitude within this guidance range, certainly considering that accelerating load growth really is a meaningful driver?

所以，如果可以的話，第一個問題可能分成兩個部分。首先，關於2022年的指引，你們有許多有趣的利多因素。運維負荷成長加速，這顯然對再生能源來說令人失望，但這種情況似乎普遍存在。考慮到負荷成長加速確實是一個有意義的驅動因素，您能否談談在這個指引範圍內的可能空間？

And then secondly, just related to that, and I suspect this is perhaps part of the reason for the guidance range. Can you talk about your confidence on the ability to cut $100 million in cost with the backdrop of inflation admittedly elsewhere in the sector?

其次，與此相關，我懷疑這可能是指導範圍的部分原因。您能否談談，在業界其他領域普遍存在通貨膨脹的背景下，您對削減1億美元成本的能力有何信心？

Yes. So I'll take a shot, and I'm sure Steve will have something to add. Julien, I believe what we put forward through 2022 is a very strong growth story. It's built on Florida, the Carolinas, Midwest, gas rate cases, low growth, O&M cost management, all the things that you referenced.

是的。所以我會嘗試一下，我相信史蒂夫會有一些補充。朱利安，我相信我們在2022年提出的成長目標是一個非常強勁的成長故事。它建立在佛羅裡達、卡羅來納、中西部、天然氣價格案例、低成長、運維成本管理以及你提到的所有因素之上。

I also believe that the increase in capital that we've put forward should give you confidence that we're going to keep going and have the investment portfolio to drive 5% to 7%. In 2022, though, I also think it's important to recognize we have some foundational work underway. And the Carolinas legislation was a hallmark in 2021, but we're in the regulatory process in 2022. We're waiting for guidance on the performance-based ratemaking. We're waiting for guidance on securitization. We have a carbon plan to file. And so that will be additional important work in 2022 that will set us up for the future.

我也相信，我們提出的增資方案應該能讓您相信我們將繼續前進，並擁有能夠推動5%至7%的投資組合成長的投資組合。不過，在2022年，我認為重要的是要認識到我們正在進行一些基礎性工作。卡羅萊納州的立法是2021年的標誌性立法，但我們在2022年仍處於監管流程。我們正在等待基於績效的費率制定方面的指導。我們正在等待證券化的指導。我們還有一項碳排放計劃需要提交。因此，這將是我們在2022年開展的額外重要工作，為未來做好準備。

In terms of inflation, we are seeing labor inflation as the one thing I would point to. And if you look at our trajectory, we're recommending flat. We will go at it as hard as we can, but we will also make sure we have the talent and capability from our line workers to our software engineers to do what this business requires and our customers' demand. So I feel like we've taken all of these variables together, and not only put together a strong plan for 2022 but also a strong plan for '23 and beyond. Steve, how would you add?

就通膨而言，我認為勞動力通膨是其中最重要的因素。如果你看一下我們的發展軌跡，我們預測通膨將持平。我們會盡全力推進，但我們也會確保從第一線工人到軟體工程師，我們擁有足夠的人才和能力來滿足業務需求和客戶需求。所以我覺得我們已經綜合考慮了所有這些變量，不僅制定了2022年的強有力計劃，也制定了2023年及以後的強有力計劃。史蒂夫，您有什麼補充嗎？

I might add a couple of things. On the cost side, we took $200 million out sustainable as we had promised, and we've delivered on that. We've got 2,000 less employees at Duke Energy than we did a year ago. We retired 5 coal units, and that takes out some O&M there. But we're going to keep moving forward. Our scope and scale allows us to do this. We've completely redone our real estate footprint and taken advantage of COVID immediately on the real estate savings. We're going to continue to drive out efficiencies and utilize technology to displace the need for other costs.

我想補充幾點。在成本方面，我們兌現了承諾，以可持續的方式削減了2億美元，並且已經兌現。杜克能源的員工人數比一年前減少了2000人。我們關閉了5個燃煤機組，這減少了一些營運和維護成本。但我們會繼續前進。我們的業務範圍和規模使我們能夠做到這一點。我們已經徹底重塑了我們的房地產佈局，並立即利用了新冠疫情帶來的房地產節省。我們將繼續提高效率，並利用技術來減少對其他成本的需求。

And we've had success for the past 5 years of doing that of driving O&M down. We put flat O&M into our trajectory in response to what is inflation there. But we're going to continue to hammer our way at it. And we've got the tools to do that. We'll see where that goes, but out of respect for the trends we see on cost, we flattened it out. We're going to be driving hard at it, Julien.

過去五年來，我們在降低維運成本方面取得了成功。為了因應通貨膨脹，我們將持平的維運成本納入了我們的發展軌跡。但我們將繼續努力，而且我們擁有實現這一目標的工具。我們會觀察最終結果，但出於對成本趨勢的尊重，我們將其持平了。朱利安，我們會繼續努力的。

And I think when you step back and look at guidance, maybe just one comment on guidance, too, and we feel like it's a very strong growth story. You may remember that we reset the 5% to 7% for the first time, off of $5.15. We believe this is a very strong start. And as you know, we'll be working hard not only to hit these numbers. But if circumstances are such we can exceed them, we'll do that. But we believe this is a compelling growth story.

我認為，當你回顧一下業績指引時，哪怕只是一則評論，我們都會覺得這是一個非常強勁的成長故事。你可能還記得，我們首次將每股盈餘從5.15美元調整為5%至7%。我們相信這是一個非常強烈的開端。如你所知，我們不僅會努力實現這些目標，而且如果情況允許，我們能夠超越這些目標，我們也會做到。我們相信這是一個令人信服的成長故事。

I hear you loud and clear on that last comment. And in fact, if I can ask you this a little bit in reverse. I mean, clearly, you're hitting these '22 numbers considering Commercial Renewables being a little lower and some of that being delayed. Does that actually conversely mean that '23 and '24 could actually be sort of a bumper crop year with respect to some of the renewable contributions, especially relative to your historic $200 million to $250 million guidance?

我清楚地聽到了你最後一條評論。事實上，如果我可以反過來問你這個問題。我的意思是，很明顯，你達到這些2022年的數字是考慮到商業可再生能源的規模略低，而且其中一些項目被推遲了。這實際上是否反過來意味著，2023年和2024年實際上可能是再生能源貢獻豐收的一年，尤其是相對於你歷史上2億到2.5億美元的指導金額而言？

Julien, we are evaluating capital allocation on renewables. In Steve's comments, you might have noticed, we said as we ramp up further investment in the Carolinas and in Florida around renewables. So we will make the right decision on where we invest the renewable capital. I think the planning assumption of $200 million to $250 million is still reasonable for commercial. But know that we're also going to be adding a lot of renewables in those regulated businesses.

朱利安，我們正在評估再生能源的資本配置。你可能已經注意到，在史蒂夫的評論中，我們提到我們將增加對卡羅萊納州和佛羅裡達州可再生能源的投資。因此，我們將在再生能源資本投資方向做出正確的決定。我認為，2億到2.5億美元的規劃假設對商業項目來說仍然是合理的。但要知道，我們也將在那些受監管的企業中增加大量再生能源投資。

And we'll take our next question from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的史蒂芬伯德提出的下一個問題。

I was interested in your latest thinking in terms of some form of federal clean energy legislation. I know there's been a lot of dialogue. You all have been very involved in dialogue there. So just curious your latest take on the prospects for passage at the federal level.

我對您關於某種形式的聯邦清潔能源立法的最新想法很感興趣。我知道已經有很多對話。你們都非常積極地參與了這方面的對話。所以，我很好奇您對在聯邦層級通過該法案的前景有何看法。

Stephen, it's hard to handicap because we don't have a vehicle yet. There are a variety of other topics being discussed within that construct of what the administration would like to move. But it is our conviction that the clean energy tax provisions would be very helpful not only to support the transformation that's underway at Duke, but throughout the industry, and also allow us to lower the price of that transformation. For a regulated company, those tax incentives have a direct impact on our price to customers. So we are strong advocates for it. We actually believe that nuclear is a great recognition of that resource, some of the modernization around solar to introduce PTCs, the opportunity to have direct pay. All of these things, we believe, could be helpful in this transformation that we're pursuing so aggressively.

史蒂芬，很難設定障礙，因為我們還沒有具體的方案。在政府希望推動的轉型框架內，還有許多其他議題正在討論中。但我們堅信，清潔能源稅條款不僅對支持杜克大學正在進行的轉型非常有益，而且對整個產業都有益，還能讓我們降低轉型的成本。對於一家受監管的公司來說，這些稅收優惠政策會直接影響我們提供給客戶的價格。因此，我們堅決支持清潔能源。我們實際上認為，核能是對這種資源的極大認可，太陽能的一些現代化改造引入了預付費系統 (PTC)，以及直接付費的機會。我們相信，所有這些都可能有助於我們積極推動的轉型。

That's helpful. And then I just wanted to follow up on a couple of questions on renewable supply chain. I wanted to drill in on solar a little bit more. I wondered if you could provide anything specific in terms of just the rough magnitude of cost increases you're seeing. And also, if you could speak to just the physical availability of panels in '22 and the outlook there, just curious for a little more color there.

這很有幫助。然後我想繼續問幾個關於再生能源供應鏈的問題。我想更深入地談談太陽能。您能否具體說明您所看到的成本上漲幅度。另外，您能否談談2022年太陽能板的實際供應情況以及前景？我很想知道更多細節。

Stephen, I would point to availability as the first and most gating item because of some of the restrictions around trade and other things. There has been an issue around availability and certain suppliers have said we can't meet the time frame. And as a result of that, you then begin looking for alternatives, and those alternatives can be more expensive. So we have made a decision to push some of our projects into '23. We're very confident in our projects that we have identified for '23, that we have appropriate supply and are ready to go. But that's what I would share with you. The gating issue has been availability. And then as you pursue alternatives, price can become an issue.

史蒂芬，我想指出，由於貿易和其他方面的一些限制，供應情況是首要且最關鍵的因素。供應情況一直存在問題，一些供應商表示我們無法準時完成。因此，我們開始尋找替代方案，而這些替代方案的成本可能更高。因此，我們決定將部分項目推遲到2023年。我們對已確定的2023年專案非常有信心，我們有充足的供應，並且隨時可以啟動。這就是我想與大家分享的。供應情況一直是限制因素。然後，在尋找替代方案時，價格可能會成為一個問題。

That's helpful. And maybe just following up on that, and then I'll pass it to someone else. Just on the magnitude of pushback of projects in terms of sort of gigawatts, what sort of rough magnitude are you thinking that you want to push into '23?

這很有幫助。也許我只是跟進一下，然後我會把它轉交給其他人。關於專案延後的程度（以千兆瓦為單位），您認為2023年要延後到多少規模？

Stephen, as I look at what we have put forward as guidance, we're at $150 million for the commercial business. We have been targeting $200 million to $250 million. So I would think about a couple of projects that are being pushed from '22 to '23.

史蒂芬，我根據我們提出的指導意見來看，商業業務的預算為1.5億美元。我們之前的目標是2億到2.5億美元。所以我會考慮幾個從2022年延到2023年的專案。

It might be in the neighborhood of 400, 500 megawatts, something of that nature. And then we'll look at, again, '23 as we approach it to see what makes sense based on the projects that are there and the returns as we move forward. But I still think around the $200 million to $250 million as the reasonable planning assumption for what we'll do.

可能在400到500兆瓦左右，類似這樣的規模。之後，我們會再考慮23年，看看根據現有項目以及未來回報，什麼方案更合理。但我仍然認為，2億到2.5億美元左右是合理的規劃假設。

And Stephen, a moment ago, I also noted, we were able to complete all of the regulated renewable projects and have secured supply for them for 2022. So we're doing some balancing here and believe that the net result of all of this puts us in a strong position to achieve our objectives.

史蒂芬，剛才我也提到，我們能夠完成所有受監管的可再生能源項目，並確保 2022 年的供應。因此，我們正在做一些平衡，並相信所有這些的最終結果將使我們處於有利地位，能夠實現我們的目標。

We'll take our next question from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman 提出的下一個問題。

Just -- can you just confirm whether you're still expecting to get the multiyear rate plan proposal out today, the performance-based ratemaking? And just what are the key items that we should be watching in that?

您能否確認，您是否仍預期今天會發布多年期利率方案，也就是基於績效的利率制定方案？其中我們應該關注的關鍵點是什麼？

Yes. And we expect it this week. I guess we're sitting here on Thursday. Steve, it could come out today. I think the 10th was the plan, but we are expecting it. And we'll get something out from Investor Relations when that rulemaking appears.

是的。我們預計這週就能拿到。我想我們得等到週四才能拿到。史蒂夫，今天可能會公佈。我記得計畫是10號，但我們也在期待。等規則制定後，我們會從投資人關係部門得到一些消息。

Okay. So just see what it has to say.

好的。那就看看它說了什麼吧。

Yes. And we're in the second constructive rulemaking.

是的。我們正處於第二輪建設性規則制定階段。

Great. And then in terms of when you kind of referenced both in the upside drivers for the long-term plan and I think Steve's comments on things that could lead you to look at equity needs, the tax policy. Could you just kind of give a little more sense on what you're referring to there? Is it that if we get favorable renewable tax policy, you might invest a lot more capital, and thus, with that also have some equity needs? Or is it something beyond that?

太好了。然後，關於您提到的長期計劃的上行驅動因素，以及我認為史蒂夫提到的可能導致您關注股權需求和稅收政策的問題。您能否更詳細地解釋一下您指的是什麼？是不是說，如果我們獲得有利的可再生稅收政策，您可能會投入更多資本，因此也會產生一些股權需求？還是說還有其他原因？

Steve, it's actually a reverse of that because if we get constructive tax policy, think about direct pay, think about nuclear PTC, that is very favorable from a cash flow standpoint. And that gives us an opportunity to consider potentially additional capital. But you should think about that as an infusion of cash into the plan in a way that could be quite helpful.

史蒂夫，實際上情況正好相反，因為如果我們能獲得建設性稅收政策，例如直接支付，例如核能PTC，從現金流的角度來看，這非常有利。這讓我們有機會考慮潛在的額外資本。但你應該把它看作是對計劃的現金注入，這可能會很有幫助。

Makes sense. So then when you talk about tax policy as something that may have equity, is that more of the corporate tax changes?

有道理。那麼，您說的稅務政策可能具有公平性，是指企業稅制改革嗎？

Yes. There's -- the linkage of tax policy and equity needs is not what as you're thinking about it, Steve. We included that to say, that could be a reason to reduce the need for equity even beyond '26 depending on what's happening. So there are positives and negatives in that.

是的。史蒂夫，稅收政策和股權需求之間的連結並非你所想的。我們之所以提到這一點，是想說明，根據實際情況，這或許可以成為2026年後降低股權需求的理由。所以，這其中有正面的一面，也有負面的一面。

Yes. We were looking at cash flow changes as well as capital changes in the tax policy is very beneficial from a tax perspective.

是的。我們正在研究現金流變化以及資本變化，從稅收角度來看，稅收政策非常有利。

Okay. I thought those were things that would only create equity needs, not the ones that were [long]. That's why it didn't make sense to me. Okay. Great.

好的。我以為那些東西只會創造股權需求，而不是那些（長期）需求。所以我覺得這說不通。好的。太好了。

I'm glad we had a chance to clear that up.

我很高興我們有機會澄清這一點。

And we'll take our next question from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.

我們將回答 Vertical Research 的 Jonathan Arnold 提出的下一個問題。

Last quarter, you were talking about 2% to 2.5% sales growth for the full year. And it felt like you were sounding more confident towards the upper end perhaps and came in at 2%. And then looking at the release, if I'm reading it correctly, you actually had weather-normal sales go down in the fourth quarter and industrial tick off about 5%. So just can you give us a little color on what was behind that? I wasn't necessarily expecting to see a down fourth quarter in industrial, I guess, quite yet.

上個季度，您談到了全年銷售額成長2%到2.5%。感覺您似乎對成長上限更有信心，最終確定了2%。然後，如果我沒記錯的話，從發布數據來看，第四季由於天氣原因，工業銷售額實際上有所下降，工業銷售額下降了約5%。您能否稍微解釋一下背後的原因？我當時並沒有預料到第四季工業銷售額會下降。

Well, I think when you're looking at [AVA] for the quarter, the fourth quarter of the previous year was starting to pick up quite a bit, so there's some comparative things there. I think as we move forward, what we're really projecting here is that we're going to catch up by the end of '22 to where we would have been prior to COVID hitting when you just take 2019 and extrapolate out. So I wouldn't look at any one particular quarter comparison to another quarter as you could have shutdowns in certain industries and that nature that might impact the stats.

嗯，我認為，當你查看本季的[AVA]數據時，你會發現去年第四季已經開始回暖了不少，所以有一些可比性。我認為，隨著我們向前發展，我們真正的預測是，到2022年底，我們將趕上新冠疫情爆發之前的水平，如果只以2019年的數據來推導的話。因此，我不會將任何一個特定季度與另一個季度進行比較，因為某些行業可能會出現停工停產的情況，而這種因素可能會影響統計數據。

But looking broadly across it, what we see is return by the end of '22 to where we were at prior to COVID and then we've got pretty flattish load growth assumed from that point forward. We feel good about '22 growth across the board. We've added a lot of customers, as we alluded to. And customers moving into the area, that will drive commercial, education, health care, retail, that picks up. And then when we look across our industrial base and talk to our industrial customers, we've got such a diverse body of industrial customers. No one customer SIC code is greater than 10%. We see them optimistic about further growth in '22. So I'd think about that a bit more than just a quarter-versus-quarter examination.

但從整體來看，我們看到到2022年底，我們的業務量將恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平，並且從那時起，我們預計負載成長將相當平穩。我們對2022年的全面成長感到樂觀。正如我們所提到的，我們增加了許多客戶。客戶遷入該地區，這將推動商業、教育、醫療保健和零售業的復甦。然後，當我們縱觀我們的工業基礎並與我們的工業客戶交談時，我們發現我們的工業客戶群非常多樣化。沒有一個客戶的SIC代碼超過10%。我們認為他們對2022年的進一步成長持樂觀態度。因此，我認為這不僅僅是一個季度與季度之間的比較。

May I just ask you, can you talk a little bit about how the pathway to sort of integrating North and South Carolina around the carbon plan given some of the recent developments in the South? And I guess you were trying to pull -- have a joint proceeding, but that looks like it may not happen now. So just what's -- how do we bring this forward on a fuel track?

我想問一下，鑑於南方最近的一些發展，您能否談談如何將南北卡羅來納州整合到碳排放計劃中？我想您之前想嘗試聯合推進，但現在看來不太可能了。那麼，我們該如何推進燃料方面的工作呢？

Sure. And Jonathan, North and South Carolina have found a way over decades to work together and have developed a joint electric system that delivers affordable and reliable power, but they've also benefited from infrastructure investment in both states. 6 nuclear power plants, 3 in North Carolina, 3 in South Carolina. So we are optimistic that we'll be able to develop resource plans that meet the needs of both states. They are, of course, different, but both are interested in clean energy, clean energy transition, renewables, et cetera.

當然。喬納森，北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州幾十年來已經找到了合作的方式，並建立了一個提供廉價可靠電力的聯合電力系統，同時他們也受益於兩個州的基礎設施投資。目前共有6座核電廠，其中3座於北卡羅萊納州，3座於南卡羅萊納州。因此，我們樂觀地認為，我們能夠制定出滿足兩州需求的資源規劃。當然，兩州的情況有所不同，但都對清潔能源、清潔能源轉型、再生能源等都感興趣。

The joint hearing that we suggested and worked toward was an innovative idea. We thought it would be an opportunity for the states to engage, but it's not the only way. And as we think about the future and the number of proceedings that will unfold over the next several years with resource additions and potential retirements, there will be plenty of opportunity for the states to work together in a way that makes sense for their policies.

我們建議並努力促成的聯合聽證會是一個創新的想法。我們認為這將是各州參與的機會，但並非唯一的途徑。考慮到未來幾年將要進行的聽證會數量，以及資源的增加和可能的退出，各州將有足夠的機會以符合其政策的方式進行合作。

We'd also expect South Carolina to be at the table in the stakeholder meetings over the course of 2022. I know they are not only interested in what it means for customers around affordability and resiliency, but also what it means in terms of investment. And I think there is a lot here for both states, and we're anxious to work towards something that makes sense for everyone.

我們也希望南卡羅來納州能夠參與2022年的利害關係人會議。我知道他們不僅關心這對消費者在負擔能力和彈性方面意味著什麼，也關心這對投資意味著什麼。我認為這對兩個州來說都有很多好處，我們渴望努力實現一個對每個人都有意義的方案。

Okay. What would be the next data point in South Carolina? What's the path there?

好的。南卡羅來納州的下一個數據點是什麼？去那裡的路徑是什麼？

Jonathan, I would -- I'm not going to point to a specific milestone, but rather say that we will update you on these stakeholder engagements. We'll update you on the carbon plan as that gets finalized. To the extent there are filings that we might make in South Carolina, we'll, of course, give updates on that. So you can expect this to unfold not only over the course of '22, but into '23 as well. And South Carolina will be at the table every step of the way.

喬納森，我不會指出具體的里程碑，但我會告訴您這些利害關係人的參與情況。碳排放計畫最終敲定後，我們將向您通報。如果我們可能在南卡羅來納州提交申報，我們當然會提供更新資訊。所以您可以期待，這不僅會在2022年展開，也會在2023年展開。南卡羅來納州將全程參與。

And we'll take our next question from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI India.

我們將回答 Evercore ISI India 的 Durgesh Chopra 提出的下一個問題。

Just can I clarify in terms of O&M savings target for 2022? I heard you say the $200 million savings in 2021. What is embedded in the 2022 guidance? Is it flat O&M '22 to 2021? Or are we modeling decreases further from the 2021 levels?

我可否澄清一下2022年維運成本節省目標？我聽到您說2021年要省2億美元。 2022年的指導方針中具體包含了哪些內容？ 2022年到2021年的維運成本是持平嗎？還是說，我們預測的維運成本會比2021年的水準進一步下降？

We've assumed flat O&M in '22 compared to 2021. The $200 million was taken out in '21 and is sustainable, so it will be in there. But we're assuming it's flat in '22 and throughout our plan. But what I would point to is we have a strong track record of finding O&M savings across our footprint, and none of that has stopped. And we've got inflationary issues that everybody's heard about, so we flattened it out. But we're certainly continuing to drive to find the opportunities to utilize capital technology to take out variable O&M, and that goes on every day.

我們假設2022年的維運成本與2021年持平。 2億美元的支出是在2021年支出的，是可持續的，所以會保留下來。但我們假設2022年以及整個計畫期間的維運成本都將持平。我想指出的是，我們在營運成本方面有著良好的業績記錄，而且這種趨勢從未停止過。我們面臨著眾所周知的通膨問題，所以我們將其控制在了較低水平。但我們當然會繼續努力尋找機會，利用資本技術來降低維運成本的波動性，而這種做法每天都在進行。

Got it. And then just in terms of your comment, the potentially higher growth rate in the back half of the plan, the upper half of the 5% to 7%, is that driven by basically you getting regulatory approvals? Perhaps even stronger-than-expected customer load? What gives you -- sort of what would drive that higher growth rate in the upper half in the back half of the plan?

明白了。那麼，就您剛才的評論而言，計劃後半段的潛在增長率，也就是5%到7%的上半段，基本上是由您獲得監管部門的批准推動的嗎？也許是由於客戶流量超出預期？是什麼因素推動了計畫後半段上半段更高的成長率？

I would think about the work that's underway in 2022, Durgesh, around the Carolinas. So we have -- legislation has been passed, but we have regulatory proceedings underway to set the course on the performance-based ratemaking and on the plan. That, of course, will begin to be executed in '23 and '24. So there's going to be a sort of back half approach around the capital and the regulatory modernization in the Carolinas.

我會考慮2022年在卡羅萊納州杜爾格甚（Durgesh）周圍正在進行的工作。我們已經通過了立法，但監管程序正在進行中，以製定基於績效的電費制定方案和相關計劃。當然，這些方案將在2023年和2024年開始實施。因此，在首府和卡羅萊納州的監管現代化方面，我們將採取一種後半段的方法。

And then further in Indiana, the IRP was filed in December. We're anticipating RFPs and potentially CPCNs to be filed in 2022 that will begin the execution of the next phase of the transition in Indiana as well. So those are a couple of things that I would point to that are important as you think about the end of this 5-year plan, but the remaining years in this decade.

印第安納州的IRP已於12月提交。我們預計RFP和CPCN將於2022年提交，屆時印第安納州也將啟動下一階段的過渡。因此，我想指出的是，考慮到這個五年計畫的結束，以及未來十年的剩餘時間，這些事情非常重要。

And we'll take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet 提出的下一個問題。

I just wanted to touch on financing a bit more, if I could here. And just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on the 2022 hybrid security funding. What kind of -- what could that look like? What type of size could that part be?

如果可以的話，我想稍微談談融資問題。能否詳細介紹2022年的混合安全融資方案？具體是什麼樣的？這部分資金的規模大概是多少？

And then separately, looking forward, we've talked about the robust capital opportunities that you've highlighted throughout the call. How should we think about equity needs over the course of the 5-year plan and beyond? And I know you talked in the script about alternatives. I'm just looking for a little bit more color what the alternatives could be. Could this be other DI-type transactions? Or maybe monetizing commercial renewables? Just trying to see what possibilities are out there.

另外，展望未來，我們討論了您在整個電話會議中強調的強勁資本機會。我們該如何考慮五年計畫及以後的股權需求？我知道您在會議紀要中提到了替代方案。我只是想更詳細地了解這些替代方案可能是什麼。可能是其他直接投資 (DI) 類型的交易嗎？還是將商業再生能源貨幣化？只是想看看有哪些可能性。

A couple of things there. When we look at our financing plan, I don't have any specifics on what a hybrid security might look like, but we always consider those. There are times where those can certainly make sense when the value they can bring and the price makes sense to us, so we'll always allude to that as a possibility there, but nothing specific on that front.

有幾件事。當我們制定融資計劃時，我並沒有關於混合證券的具體細節，但我們總是會考慮這些。有時，當它們帶來的價值和價格對我們來說合理時，它們肯定是有意義的，所以我們總是會提到這是一種可能性，但在這方面沒有具體說明。

When you think about the 5-year plan, we put together a plan here that we do not believe we need any incremental equity beyond the $1 billion of the second tranche of the GIC deal that will be coming in within the next 12 months. We think we've got regulatory constructs in place across our jurisdiction that are very efficient. And we have regulatory plans to make those investments through those regulatory constructs.

說到五年計劃，我們制定了一個方案，除了未來12個月內將到位的GIC交易第二期10億美元的資金外，我們認為我們不需要任何額外的股權投資。我們認為，我們轄區內已經建立了非常有效率的監管體系。我們也制定了監管計劃，以便透過這些監管體系進行投資。

We've also got a great ability to control cost. We've shown that, and that helps the bottom line metrics as well. So no equity financing plans through the plan. Now as we move through the decade, for the circumstances that Lynn had described, we could see needs coming at us. We'll utilize the most efficient form of raising equity, and we've shown great ability to do that through traditional methods, through nontraditional, through monetization of businesses. We'll look at all of that. We're well aware of our portfolio's value. It's good to have that optionality.

我們也擁有強大的成本控制能力。我們已經證明了這一點，這也有助於提高獲利指標。因此，該計劃中沒有股權融資計劃。隨著未來十年的推進，鑑於Lynn所描述的情況，我們可以看到未來會有需求。我們將利用最有效的股權融資方式，並且我們已經展現出強大的能力，能夠透過傳統方式、非傳統方式以及業務貨幣化來實現這一點。我們會考慮所有這些。我們非常清楚我們投資組合的價值。擁有這種選擇性是件好事。

Got it. That's helpful there. And then kind of pivoting here. You talked about carbon capture, hydrogen, nuclear. Just wondering how far are these technologies from being widely adopted in your view here? And are these items that can drive upside to the 10-year outlook? Or are they kind of longer dated? And then specifically with CCUS, just wondering what stakeholder views are like there? And what discussions have been like with the regulators on CCUS in your jurisdiction?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後我來談談這個問題。您提到了碳捕獲、氫能和核能。我想知道，在您看來，這些技術距離被廣泛採用還有多遠？這些技術能否推動10年前景的上行？還是說，它們的應用時間會更長？具體到CCUS，我想知道利害關係人對此有何看法？您所在轄區內與CCUS監理機關的討論情況如何？

I think this is an important discussion to progress in this decade. And so the awareness around hydrogen, the awareness around advanced nuclear, the awareness around what might be possible in CCUS is something that is a part of our conversations with all of our regulators. And you begin to see even offshore wind part of the conversation with regulators. It's a mature technology in Europe but relatively new in the U.S.

我認為這是未來十年需要推進的重要討論。因此，對氫能、先進核能以及碳捕集、封存和利用（CCUS）潛力的認識，都是我們與所有監管機構對話的一部分。你甚至開始看到離岸風電也成為我們與監管機構對話的一部分。這在歐洲是一項成熟的技術，但在美國相對較新。

And the good news is we believe we have runway with existing technologies to achieve the majority of our aspirations around clean energy transition over the next 5 years or so. And so you're getting into the 2030s when those technologies would be more important to get to net 0 and the next tranche of carbon reduction. And so I think time will tell on whether they get to commercial scale. We begin to see some demonstration projects like an advanced nuclear in the 2028 time frame.

好消息是，我們相信，憑藉現有技術，我們有能力在未來五年左右實現清潔能源轉型的大部分願景。因此，進入2030年代，這些技術對於實現淨零排放和下一階段的減碳將發揮更重要的作用。因此，我認為時間將證明它們能否達到商業規模。我們將在2028年左右看到一些示範項目，例如先進核能。

But I would also point to the amount of money that's in the infrastructure bill to really pilot and develop and get these technologies to scale. So it's possible it occurs even more rapidly. But we will be thoughtful working with stakeholders and our regulators before we begin introducing any of these technologies, so that we have a common view of what we would like to achieve and invest in to meet our goals.

但我還要指出的是，基礎設施法案中已經撥出了巨額資金，用於真正試點、開發和推廣這些技術。因此，這一進程可能會更快。但在開始引入任何這些技術之前，我們會與利害關係人和監管機構進行周密的合作，以便我們對實現目標的目標和投資方向達成共識。

And our next question comes from James Thalacker with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 James Thalacker。

And I didn't want to really kind of beat a dead horse, but just regarding the acceleration of your growth rate into the upper half of the 5% to 7%, maybe Lynn or Steve, should we think about this in the context of the current 2022 to 2026 plan? Or as you look further out into the kind of 2030 time frame, given your capital plan shows some significant acceleration in that kind of '27 through '30 time frame?

我不想再重複老生常談了，但關於你們的增長率加速到5%到7%的上半部分，Lynn或Steve，我們應該在當前2022年到2026年的計劃背景下考慮這個問題嗎？或者，鑑於你們的資本計畫顯示，在2027年到2030年的時間框架內，成長率會顯著加速，請問你們進一步展望2030年的時間框架嗎？

In the back half of this 5-year plan, Jim, but certainly continuing in the back part of the decade.

吉姆，這是這項五年計畫的後半段，但肯定會在接下來的十年中繼續下去。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO, for any additional remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在，我將把會議交給主席、總裁兼執行長林恩古德，請她發表其他評論。

Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining. I know these calls in February are always full of information, not only in what we have achieved, but where we're going. And so we're available to answer any follow-on questions and look forward to talking with many of you in the weeks to come. So thanks again for your interest in Duke Energy.

謝謝大家的參與。我知道二月的電話會議總是充滿訊息，不僅涵蓋我們所取得的成就，也涵蓋我們的發展方向。因此，我們隨時準備好回答任何後續問題，並期待在接下來的幾週與各位進行交流。再次感謝大家對杜克能源的關注。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以掛斷電話了。