Diana Shipping Inc (DSX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to the Diana Shipping Inc 2023 fourth quarter and year-end conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ed Nebb, Investor Relations for Diana Shipping. Please go ahead.

    您好,歡迎參加戴安娜航運公司 2023 年第四季和年終電話會議和網路廣播。(操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興將電話轉給戴安娜航運公司投資者關係部的 Ed Nebb。請繼續。

  • Edward Nebb - Investor Relations

    Edward Nebb - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Kevin, and thanks to everyone who is joining us today for the Diana Shipping, Inc 2023 fourth quarter and full-year conference call. With us today from management Semiramis Paliou, Chief Executive Officer, and she will introduce the other members of the management team. And so without further ado, I will turn the call over to Ms. Paliou.

    謝謝凱文,也感謝今天參加戴安娜航運公司 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議的所有人。今天,我們由執行長 Semiramis Paliou 與我們一起,她將介紹管理團隊的其他成員。因此,話不多說,我會把電話轉給帕利歐女士。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

    Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Ed. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Diana Shipping Inc's fourth quarter and end of year 2023 financial results conference call. As Ed said, I'm Semiramis Paliou, the CEO of the company. And it's my pleasure to present alongside our esteemed team, Mr. Stasi Margaronis, who is the Director and President; Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Director, CFO and Chief Strategy Officer; Mr. Eleftherios Papatrifon, Director.

    謝謝你,艾德。早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加戴安娜航運公司第四季和 2023 年年底財務業績電話會議。正如艾德所說,我是塞米勒米斯·帕利烏,公司執行長。我很高興與我們尊敬的團隊、董事兼總裁 Stasi Margaronis 先生一起出席。 Ioannis Zafirakis 先生,董事、財務長兼首席策略長; Eleftherios Papatrifon 先生,董事。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone to review the forward-looking statements on page 4 of the accompanying presentation, please.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家閱讀隨附簡報第 4 頁的前瞻性陳述。

  • So despite market conditions being mixed during the last quarter of 2023 and in early 2024, our disciplined chartering strategy has allowed us to continue generating positive free cash flows. Within February, we have witnessed the market sentiment improving significantly, and as a result, current market conditions are more robust. In this background, we announced a cash dividend for the fourth quarter of 2023 of $0.075 per share.

    因此,儘管 2023 年最後一個季度和 2024 年初的市場狀況好壞參半,但我們嚴格的租船策略使我們能夠繼續產生正的自由現金流。自2月以來,市場情緒明顯好轉,目前市場行情更加穩健。在此背景下,我們宣布2023年第四季現金股利為每股0.075美元。

  • Turning to slide 5. I will review with you the company's snapshot as of today. Our fleet comprises 41 vessels in the water with a total deadweight of approximately 4.5 million tons. Our fleet utilization has remained consistently high, reaching 99.7% for the fiscal year 2023, attributed to our prudent and efficient management of our vessels. Additionally, as of the end of the fourth quarter, we employed 1,018 people at sea and the shore.

    轉到投影片 5。我將與您一起回顧公司今天的概況。我們的船隊由 41 艘船舶組成,總載重量約 450 萬噸。我們的船隊利用率一直保持在較高水平,2023 財年達到 99.7%,這得益於我們對船舶的審慎高效管理。此外,截至第四季末,我們在海上和岸上僱用了 1,018 名員工。

  • Moving on to slide 6, let's go over the key highlights from the third quarter and recent developments. We recently executed the contract for the acquisition of 281,000 deadweight methanol dual-fuel newbuilding Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels built at Tsuneishi Group for a purchase price of $46 million each. These vessels are expected to be delivered to the company in the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028, respectively.

    繼續看投影片 6,讓我們回顧一下第三季的主要亮點和最近的發展。我們最近簽署了收購常石集團建造的281,000載重噸甲醇雙燃料新建Kamsarmax幹散貨船的合同,每艘採購價為4,600萬美元。這些船舶預計將分別於2027年下半年和2028年上半年交付給該公司。

  • The investment of $92 million just mentioned was showcased at the Business and Philanthropy Climate Forum during COP28 in Dubai. This presentation highlighted our commitment to reducing the environmental impact of our fleet, demonstrating our dedication to sustainable practices and initiatives. We take our role as an industry leader very seriously, continually striving to enhance our fleet and operations for the benefit of our stakeholders and the environment.

    剛才提到的 9,200 萬美元投資是在杜拜 COP28 期間的商業和慈善氣候論壇上展示的。本次演講強調了我們對減少機隊對環境影響的承諾,並展示了我們對永續實踐和措施的奉獻。我們非常重視作為行業領導者的角色,並不斷努力增強我們的機隊和運營,以造福我們的利害關係人和環境。

  • In addition, our joint venture entity, Windward Offshore, has increased its investment from two to four high-spec commissioning service operation vessels, CSOVs, to be built at VARD Yard as a result of exercising its option to construct two additional vessels. Our continued participation in this venture is another reflection of our commitment to a greener and more sustainable shipping industry. These investments underscore our dedication to sustainable shipping and positions us to meet the evolving demand of our industry while reducing our carbon footprint.

    此外,我們的合資實體Windward Offshore在行使建造另外兩艘船舶的選擇權後,已將其投資從兩艘增加到四艘高規格調試服務運營船CSOV,這些船將在VARD Yard建造。我們持續參與這項合資企業是我們致力於建立更綠色、更永續的航運業的另一個體現。這些投資強調了我們對永續航運的奉獻,並使我們能夠滿足產業不斷變化的需求,同時減少碳足跡。

  • Furthermore, continuing the renewal and modernization of our fleet, two vessels have been sold to an affiliated third party. Motor vessel Artemis at a net sale price of approximately $13 million and motor vessel Houston for approximately $23.3 million.

    此外,為了繼續更新和現代化我們的船隊,兩艘船已出售給附屬第三方。機動船 Artemis 的淨售價約為 1,300 萬美元,機動船 Houston 的淨售價約為 2,330 萬美元。

  • Before the end of the year, the company released its fourth ESG report for 2022, a copy of which can be found on our website.

    年底前,該公司發布了2022年第四份ESG報告,該報告的副本可以在我們的網站上找到。

  • On November 20, 2023, we announced a pro rata distribution of warrants to holders of the company's common stock, of which, as of February 16, 2024, 1,940,736 were exercised. The warrant distribution provided us with an opportunity to potentially raise equity in a non-dilutive manner for our existing shareholders.

    2023年11月20日,我們宣布向公司普通股股東按比例分配認股權證,截至2024年2月16日,其中1,940,736份認股權證已獲行使。認股權證分配為我們提供了以非稀釋方式為現有股東籌集股本的機會。

  • As of February 19, 2024, the company has secured revenue for 62% of the remaining ownership days of the year 2024, amounting to approximately $123.3 million of contracted revenues. Additionally, the company has secured approximately $31 million of contracted revenue for the year 2025, representing 12% of the available ownership days for the entire year. Ioannis will provide a more detailed analysis of our cash flow generation potential based on the current market environment.

    截至2024年2月19日,該公司已獲得2024年剩餘所有權天數62%的收入,合約收入約為1.233億美元。此外,該公司還獲得了 2025 年約 3,100 萬美元的合約收入,佔全年可用所有權天數的 12%。Ioannis 將根據當前市場環境對我們的現金流量產生潛力進行更詳細的分析。

  • As mentioned earlier, we are pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.075 per common share, totaling approximately $8.7 million. Finally, we are pleased to announce that our company was honored with the prestigious Dry Cargo Company of the Year Award at the 2023 Lloyd's List Greek Shipping Awards. This recognition is a testament to the hard work, dedication, and excellence of our team.

    如前所述,我們很高興宣布季度現金股息為每股普通股 0.075 美元,總計約 870 萬美元。最後,我們很高興地宣布,我們公司在 2023 年勞合社希臘航運獎中榮獲著名的年度乾貨公司獎。這項認可證明了我們團隊的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和卓越表現。

  • Moving on to slide 7, let's review a summary of our recent chartering activity. We have continued to implement our disciplined strategy by securing profitable time charters for eight vessels since our last earnings presentation in November 2023.

    前往投影片 7,讓我們回顧一下我們最近的包機活動的摘要。自 2023 年 11 月上次發布財報以來,我們繼續實施嚴格的策略,為 8 艘船舶獲得了有利可圖的期租。

  • To provide some detail, we have chartered three Ultramax vessels with a weighted average daily rate of $13,950 a day for a remaining average period of 401 days. Additionally, three Panamax/ Kamsarmax/Post-Panamax vessels have been chartered at a weighted average daily rate of $15,631 a day for a remaining average period of 365 days. And two Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels have been chartered with a weighted average daily rate of $21,043 per day and a remaining average period of 486 days.

    為了提供一些細節,我們租用了三艘 Ultramax 船舶,加權平均日費率為每天 13,950 美元,剩餘平均期限為 401 天。此外,三艘巴拿馬型/卡姆薩爾型/後巴拿馬型船舶已以每天 15,631 美元的加權平均日租費租出,剩餘平均租期為 365 天。兩艘海岬型/紐卡斯爾型船舶已被租用,加權平均日費率為每天 21,043 美元,剩餘平均租期為 486 天。

  • Slide 8 illustrates our commitment to strategically charter our vessels in a staggered manner. Our emphasis is on securing positive free cash flows through our disciplined employment strategy and positioning ourselves in a balanced way to participate in the market efficiently.

    投影片 8 說明了我們以交錯方式策略性包租船舶的承諾。我們的重點是透過嚴格的僱用策略確保積極的自由現金流,並以平衡的方式定位自己以有效地參與市場。

  • I will now pass the floor to Ioannis to provide a more detailed analysis of our financials.

    現在我將請 Ioannis 提供有關我們財務狀況的更詳細分析。

  • Ioannis Zafirakis - President , Interim Chief Financial Officer, Company Secretary, Director

    Ioannis Zafirakis - President , Interim Chief Financial Officer, Company Secretary, Director

  • Thank you, Semiramis. Slide number 9 clearly shows the two main points. One has to do with the market conditions deteriorating compared to -- for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, and you can see that on the revenue side being $60 million compared to $75 million in 2022 for the same quarter.

    謝謝你,塞米勒米斯。第 9 號投影片清楚地顯示了兩個要點。其中之一與市場狀況惡化有關——與 2022 年相比,2023 年第四季的收入為 6,000 萬美元,而 2022 年第四季的收入為 7,500 萬美元。

  • But the other point that you can see here is that we have managed to increase our cash position in the end of the year to $161 million point something compared to $143.9 million. And also, we have managed to decrease our long-term and finance liabilities, that's net of deferred financing costs, to $642.8 million compared to $663.4 million regardless of the market conditions.

    但您可以在這裡看到的另一點是,我們已成功將年底的現金部位從 1.439 億美元增加到 1.61 億美元。此外,無論市場狀況如何,我們都成功地將長期和金融負債(扣除遞延融資成本)從 6.634 億美元減少至 6.428 億美元。

  • Now, if we move to the next slide, you can see this slide basically on the time charter equivalent, time charter rate for the three months ended December 31, the fact that our time charter equivalent has been $15,162 compared to $21,100 in the same quarter in the previous year. Again, this is mainly due to the market condition deteriorating.

    現在,如果我們轉到下一張投影片,您可以看到這張投影片基本上是關於期租等值,即截至12 月31 日的三個月的期租費率,我們的期租等值為15,162 美元,而同一季度為21,100 美元在前一年。同樣,這主要是由於市場狀況惡化。

  • If we move to the next slide, what is worth mentioning is that the improved utilization rate to 99.7% compared to 98.9% in the same quarter in -- in the same year 2022. And also, the fact that the time charter equivalent for the year has been $16,700 thousand compared to $22,700 in the previous year. The daily vessel operating expenses, they have increased slightly to $5,700 compared to $5,574. What is worth mentioning also is that we have managed to keep our weighted average age to 10.5 years, although a year has passed from 10.2.

    如果我們轉到下一張投影片,值得一提的是,利用率從 2022 年同季的 98.9% 提高到 99.7%。此外,今年的定期租船等值額為 16,700,000 美元,而前一年為 22,700 美元。每日船舶營運費用略有增加,從 5,574 美元增至 5,700 美元。另外值得一提的是,我們已經成功地將加權平均年齡保持在 10.5 歲,儘管距離 10.2 歲已經過了一年。

  • Going to the income statement. I think you can clearly see that we made $0.06 in the last quarter of 2023 compared to $0.27 in the previous year's same quarter. Of course, the main reason behind that has to do with the different market conditions. If we go to the year-end income statement, again, you can see clear here that we made $0.44 -- $0.42 on a diluted basis on -- yes, on earnings per common share on a diluted basis, $0.42 compared to $1.36 in the previous year, same reasoning behind that as explained earlier.

    轉到損益表。我認為您可以清楚地看到,我們在 2023 年最後一個季度的收入為 0.06 美元,而去年同季度的收入為 0.27 美元。當然,這背後的主要原因與市場環境的不同有關。如果我們再次查看年終損益表,您可以在這裡清楚地看到,我們在稀釋基礎上賺取了0.44 美元- 0.42 美元——是的,在稀釋基礎上每股普通股收益為0.42 美元,而稀釋後每股收益為1.36 美元。去年,背後的推理與先前解釋的相同。

  • On the balance sheet, again, we think that the cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash and time deposits of $161 million compared to $143 million shows our prudent way of balancing our balance sheet. The total debt stood at $642 million as we said. And the net debt in that situation is approximately $488 million, which we consider to be very healthy.

    在資產負債表上,我們再次認為,現金和現金等價物、限制性現金和定期存款為 1.61 億美元,與 1.43 億美元相比,顯示了我們平衡資產負債表的審慎方式。正如我們所說,債務總額為 6.42 億美元。這種情況下的淨債務約為 4.88 億美元,我們認為這是非常健康的。

  • Moving to the next slide, the debt amortization profile. This is something that we have discussed in the past. You can clearly see that we have no maturities in 2024, 2025. And we have the bond expiring in 2026, $119 million worth of bonds. We think that we have managed very well the maturities, and that gives us the next two years, the opportunity to improve the next three, four or five years our debt amortization profile.

    前往下一張投影片,債務攤銷概況。這是我們過去討論過的事情。您可以清楚地看到,我們在 2024 年、2025 年沒有到期日。我們的債券將於 2026 年到期,價值 1.19 億美元。我們認為我們對到期日的管理非常好,這使我們在未來兩年有機會改善未來三年、四年或五年的債務攤銷狀況。

  • Together with the amortization profile, you can see the next slide, the balance profile. And you can see that this is steadily is going to be increasing. And especially in the 2026 year, you can see that it's going to be very healthy in order to make us not worry at all about the maturing of the bond at that time.

    與攤銷概況一起,您可以看到下一張投影片,即餘額概況。你可以看到這個數字正在穩定成長。尤其是在 2026 年,你可以看到它會非常健康,讓我們根本不用擔心那時債券的到期。

  • If we talk about the breakeven cost, these are, at the moment, the free cash flow breakeven, we calculated to be at $15,800 approximately. And the average daily time charter rate of the fixed revenues for 2024 is $16,232 and that's for 62% of the days. In the year 2025, we are fixed at $19,105 per day for the 12% of our fleet days.

    如果我們談論損益平衡成本,目前這些就是自由現金流損益平衡,我們計算出約 15,800 美元。2024 年固定收入的平均每日定期租船費率為 16,232 美元,佔該天數的 62%。到 2025 年,我們將 12% 的機隊天數固定為每天 19,105 美元。

  • Moving to slide number 18. You can see in a different way that for the remaining of the year, if we use the FFAs based on February 19, 2024, there is still some way that we can create based on those rates, free cash flow of around $7 million for 2024, and for 2025, $11 million. The market since February 19 has moved a lot in the last two, three days. And these numbers are a little bit on the conservative side as we speak since the market has moved.

    轉到第 18 號投影片。你可以以不同的方式看到,在今年剩餘的時間裡,如果我們使用基於 2024 年 2 月 19 日的 FFA,我們仍然可以根據這些費率創建 2024 年約 700 萬美元的自由現金流,2025 年為1100 萬美元。2月19日以來的市場近兩、三天波動較大。由於市場已經發生變化,正如我們所說,這些數字有點保守。

  • I think with that, I will pass the floor to Stasi Margaronis for some -- for the market review.

    我想接下來我將請 Stasi Margaronis 進行市場審查。

  • Anastasios Margaronis - President, Director

    Anastasios Margaronis - President, Director

  • Thank you, Ioannis. And from me, also a warm welcome to all the participants in Diana's first earnings call for 2024. On this slide, I'd like to mention that from our last conference call, we have brought to your attention that geopolitical events continue to have an important influence on dry bulk earnings.

    謝謝你,伊奧尼斯。我還要熱烈歡迎戴安娜王妃 2024 年首次財報電話會議的所有參與者。在這張投影片上,我想提到,在上次電話會議中,我們已提請您注意地緣政治事件繼續對乾散貨收益產生重要影響。

  • According to Clarksons bulker, Suez Canal transits are running about 40% below those seen during the first half of December last year. This is partially the result of several owners operators, including ourselves avoiding the area due to the increased risks of attack and consequent risk to seafarers lives.

    據克拉克森散裝船稱,蘇伊士運河的運輸量比去年 12 月上半月下降了約 40%。這部分是由於一些船東經營者(包括我們自己)由於遭受襲擊的風險增加以及隨之而來的海員生命風險而避開該地區的結果。

  • This decrease in Suez Canal transit is estimated to have increased the dry bulk rate average haul length by around 1%. The Clarksons base case forecast, assuming one quarter of disruption, factors in a 0.3% dry bulk tonne mile demand uplift for the full year 2024. This comes at the same time as Panama Canal restrictions due to draft limitations in Lake Gatun, where water levels are at critically low levels of less than 25 meters. This is another factor already driving some trade towards longer alternative routes.

    據估計,蘇伊士運河運輸量的減少使乾散貨運價平均運輸長度增加了約 1%。克拉克森的基本情境預測假設四分之一出現中斷,則 2024 年全年乾散貨噸英里需求將增加 0.3%。同時,由於加通湖的吃水限制,巴拿馬運河也受到限制,該湖的水位處於低於 25 公尺的極低水位。這是已經推動一些貿易轉向更長的替代路線的另一個因素。

  • Turning to the time charter rate now that we are witnessing Capesize 12-month employment hire rates stands at around $26,500 per day basis Pacific delivery with the most recent peak being $30,000 per day seen in March 2022. Today's 12-month rate of Kamsarmax is $18,250 per day. And it was around $29,500 at the end of March 2022.

    現在轉向定期租船費率,我們看到海岬型船 12 個月的太平洋交付僱傭費約為每天 26,500 美元,最近的峰值為 2022 年 3 月的每天 30,000 美元。目前 Kamsarmax 的 12 個月費率為每天 18,250 美元。截至 2022 年 3 月,該價格約為 29,500 美元。

  • For Ultramaxes, the 12-month time charter hire rate is $17,000 per day and the last peak was again $29,250 per day in March 2022. These rates are well above those reported three months ago in our last earnings call.

    對於Ultramaxes,12個月期租船租金為每天17,000美元,上一個高峰是在2022年3月,再次達到每天29,250美元。這些比率遠高於三個月前我們上次財報電話會議中報告的比率。

  • Turning to macroeconomic considerations now. The IMF GDP growth forecast for 2024 provides a reasonably optimistic picture of the future, where the GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% this year and by 3.2% in 2025. China is projected to grow by 4.6% this year and by 4.1% next. India is expected to grow by 6.5% both this year and in 2025. The US might grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.

    現在轉向宏觀經濟考慮。國際貨幣基金組織對2024年GDP成長的預測為未來提供了相當樂觀的前景,預計今年GDP將成長3.1%,2025年將成長3.2%。中國今年預計成長 4.6%,明年成長 4.1%。印度今年和 2025 年預計成長 6.5%。美國2024年和2025年的經濟成長率可能分別為2.1%和1.7%。

  • The usual anemic growth figures are forecasted for the euro area with 0.9% growth for this year and 1.75% in 2025. On another positive note, industrial production has returned to growth in several major economies, apart from Japan that is, and even the euro area is finally seeing positive monthly growth in industrial production.

    歐元區的經濟成長通常疲軟,預計今年將成長 0.9%,2025 年將成長 1.75%。另一個積極的方面是,除日本外,幾個主要經濟體的工業生產已恢復增長,甚至歐元區的工業生產也終於實現了月度正增長。

  • On the supply and demand balance now, according to Clarksons, current projections suggest that bulk carrier demand growth of about 1.6% in 2024 and may fall short of expected net fleet growth of 2.3% this year despite a modest new building delivery schedule and potential for increased demolition due to regulations and the aging fleet.

    克拉克森表示,就目前的供需平衡而言,目前的預測表明,儘管新船交付計劃溫和且有潛力,2024 年散裝貨船需求增長約1.6%,但可能低於今年預期的2.3% 的船隊淨增長。由於法規和車隊老化,拆除量增加。

  • However, a few other factors have the potential to support rates. These were mentioned also in our last conference call and remain so today. They are the slower speeds and ESD retrofit time for environmentally sound technologies. At the same time, a strong demand-supply ratio in 2023 means that there is very little surplus tonnage and 2024 start from a stronger base.

    然而,其他一些因素也有可能支持利率。我們在上次電話會議中也提到了這些內容,而且今天仍然如此。它們是環保技術的較慢速度和 ESD 改造時間。同時,2023年強勁的供需比意味著剩餘噸位非常少,2024年將有一個更強勁的基礎。

  • Looking out into 2025, dry bulk trade is forecast to grow by a modest 1.6% in ton miles, but the fleet is expected to grow by just 1% next year. So overall, Clarksons sea bulk carrier supply supported with the order book steady at just under 9% of the existing fleet and the net fleet growth projected to slow from 3% in 2023 to around 1% in 2025.

    展望 2025 年,乾散貨貿易預計將以噸英里數小幅增長 1.6%,但明年船隊預計僅增長 1%。因此,總體而言,克拉克森的海上散裝貨船供應得到了支撐,訂單量穩定在現有船隊的9% 左右,船隊淨增長預計將從2023 年的3% 放緩至2025 年的1 % 左右。

  • On the next slide, we look at demand. Starting with steel, according to World Steel, on a global basis, steel production has gone up over the last 12 months by 1.2% to 1.85 billion tons.

    在下一張投影片中,我們專注於需求。從鋼鐵開始,根據世界鋼鐵公司的數據,全球鋼鐵產量在過去 12 個月中成長了 1.2%,達到 18.5 億噸。

  • According to Commodore Research, the last seven months have seen steel production outside China increase by 15.8 million tons year on year. Prior to June last year, steel production outside of China was falling on a year-on-year basis for 15 straight months. In China, most recently, steel production increased by 8% on a year-on-year basis.

    Commodore Research的數據顯示,過去7個月中國以外地區的鋼鐵產量年增1,580萬噸。去年6月前,中國境外鋼鐵產量連續15個月年減。近期,中國鋼鐵產量年增8%。

  • Seaborne iron ore trade is projected to decline marginally in 2024. In 2025, the iron ore trade is projected to remain steady at around 1.5 billion tons as global blast furnace steel production comes under increasing pressure from green alternatives while peak Chinese steel demand will remain sensitive to government policies.

    預計 2024 年海運鐵礦石貿易將小幅下降。到2025年,由於全球高爐鋼生產面臨綠色替代品越來越大的壓力,而中國鋼鐵需求高峰仍將對政府政策保持敏感,預計鐵礦石貿易量將穩定在15億噸左右。

  • Seaborne coking coal trade is expected to increase by about 3% in 2024 and by about 1% in 2025 as coking coal demand in some key importing regions comes under pressure amid the transition to greener modes of steel production. Seaborne thermal coal trade is expected to contract by 2% this year and contract by a further 1% in 2025 and fall to about 1 billion tons by the end of next year.

    由於鋼鐵生產方式向綠色轉型的過程中,一些主要進口地區的焦煤需求面臨壓力,預計2024年海運焦煤貿易量將成長約3%,2025年將成長約1%。今年海運動力煤貿易量預計將萎縮2%,2025年進一步收縮1%,明年底降至10億噸左右。

  • Thermal coal's place in the wider global energy mix is likely, according to Clarkson, to come under pressure from expanding renewable energy capacity. The huge increase in Chinese imports seen in 2023, about 54%, went to replace port and power plant inventories. This according to Clarksons is unlikely to be repeated in 2024, while at the same time, improved hydro generation and any improvement in domestic coal production could curb coal imports even further.

    克拉克森認為,動力煤在更廣泛的全球能源結構中的地位可能會受到再生能源產能擴張的壓力。2023年中國進口量大幅增加(約54%),用於取代港口和發電廠庫存。克拉克森認為,這種情況在 2024 年不太可能重演,而與此同時,水力發電的改善和國內煤炭生產的任何改善都可能進一步抑制煤炭進口。

  • However, as Braemar points out that China's and India's coal imports sometimes overshadow dramatic changes in coal imports seen in other countries. Examples are Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand, where imports of coal jumped dramatically last year and are not expected to ease much this year due to growth factors in those countries affecting demand for pronged and reliable power generation.

    然而,正如布雷馬指出的那樣,中國和印度的煤炭進口有時掩蓋了其他國家煤炭進口的巨大變化。例如越南、馬來西亞和泰國,這些國家的煤炭進口量去年大幅增加,預計今年不會大幅減少,因為這些國家的成長因素影響了對多管齊下、可靠發電的需求。

  • Grain exports are expected to grow by 2% in 2024 with a potential increase of US exports by about 7% compared to last year. For 2025, exports are expected to grow even more and reach 5% growth compared to 2024 and reach 557 million tons. The minor bulk trade after ending 2023 on a firm note are expected by Clarksons to grow by 3% in 2024, supported by potential macroeconomic improvement. In 2025, minor bulk trade is expected to increase by a further 3% and reach 2.25 billion tons.

    預計 2024 年糧食出口將成長 2%,其中美國出口量較去年可能成長 7% 左右。2025年,出口量預計將比2024年增加5%,達到5.57億噸。克拉克森預計,在潛在宏觀經濟改善的支持下,2023 年結束後的小宗大宗貿易將在 2024 年成長 3%。2025年,小宗大宗貿易量預計將再成長3%,達到22.5億噸。

  • On slide 24, we look at the supply side. Looking at the age profile for the bulk carrier fleet, about 21% of the Handymax fleet by deadweight is 15 years or older. 25% of the Panamax fleet by deadweight fall into that category and only 15% of the Capesize fleet are older than 15 years. Scrapping in 2023 came to about 5.4 million deadweight. This year, if earnings continue to improve, they might fall back to the levels seen in 2022 of about 4.3 million tons.

    在投影片 24 中,我們著眼於供給面。從散裝船船隊的船齡概況來看,以載重量計算,約 21% 的靈便型船隊船齡為 15 年或以上。以載重量計算,25% 的巴拿馬型船隊屬於此類,只有 15% 的海岬型船隊船齡超過 15 年。2023 年報廢量約 540 萬載重噸。今年,如果獲利持續改善,可能會回落至2022年約430萬噸的水準。

  • Turning to asset values. According to Clarksons, the bulker second hand price index increased by 11% in 2023 on the back of another year of active bulker sale and purchase market. The three-month trend of 10-year-old case prices is up 17%. That's around $57.50 million. And for Kamsarmax, the equivalent increase is 12%, up to $26 million. Ultramax prices have also increased by about 17% to $25 million over the same period.

    轉向資產價值。Clarksons表示,由於散裝貨船買賣市場又活躍了一年,2023年散裝貨船二手價格指數上漲了11%。10 年箱價格的三個月趨勢上漲了 17%。約 5750 萬美元。對於 Kamsarmax,相應增幅為 12%,高達 2,600 萬美元。同期 Ultramax 價格也上漲了約 17%,達到 2,500 萬美元。

  • The bulk carrier new-building price index was up by 6% year on year amid competition for yard space across all vessel sectors and continuously increasing labor costs.

    由於各船舶產業對堆場空間的競爭以及勞動成本的不斷增加,散裝貨船新造船價格指數較去年同期上漲6%。

  • Looking briefly at the order book, according to Clarksons, the Panamax order book stood at the end of 2023 at 29.8 million deadweight, equivalent to about 11.7% of the existing fleet. For Cape, the equivalent numbers are 22.5 million deadweight and 5.7% of the existing fleet. For the Handymaxes, the order book stands at 22 million deadweight, which is about 9.3 million -- 9.3% of the trading fleet. Overall, there are about 85.8 million deadweight worth of bulkers on order, representing about 8.5% of the trading fleet.

    克拉克森表示,簡單看一下訂單簿,截至 2023 年底,巴拿馬型船訂單簿為 2,980 萬載重噸,相當於現有船隊的 11.7% 左右。對開普敦來說,相當於 2,250 萬載重噸,佔現有船隊的 5.7%。對於靈便型船舶,訂單量為 2,200 萬載重噸,約佔 930 萬載重噸,佔貿易船隊的 9.3%。總體而言,散裝貨船訂單量約為 8,580 萬載重噸,約佔貿易船隊的 8.5%。

  • Turning to slide 22, the outlook for our industry. Commodore Research remain bullish for the overall dry bulk market. The dry bulk market is continuing to enjoy historically strong rates through this time of the year. This has led to a jump in period activity as the FFA market supports the hedging of such contracts by time charters.

    轉向幻燈片 22,我們產業的前景。Commodore Research 仍然看好整個乾散貨市場。每年這個時候,乾散貨市場繼續享有歷史上強勁的價格。這導致期租活動激增,因為 FFA 市場支持透過期租對此類合約進行對沖。

  • A positive factor in the dry bulk market according to Commodore Research is that the Indian economy is doing so well, and coal imports are increasing, while hydropower output in that country remains in a phase of contraction.

    Commodore Research認為,乾散貨市場的一個正面因素是印度經濟表現良好,煤炭進口不斷增加,而該國水力​​發電產量仍處於收縮階段。

  • Dry bulk carrier demand should be supported this year by China purchasing large volumes of dry bulk commodities that benefits from any weakness in global commodity prices. This strong import appetite was seen last year, and Commodore Research see no reason for this to be reversed in 2024.

    今年乾散貨船的需求應該受到中國購買大量乾散貨商品的支撐,這些商品受益於全球大宗商品價格的疲軟。去年就出現了這種強勁的進口需求,Commodore Research 認為這種情況沒有理由在 2024 年逆轉。

  • Finally, even though predictions vary depending on the assumptions made Clarksons predict that compliance with emissions regulations such as EEXI and CII, would reduce available supply by between 1.5% and 2% per annum out to 2025 through slower speeds and ESD retrofit time.

    最後,儘管預測有所不同,克拉克森預測,遵守 EEXI 和 CII 等排放法規將透過降低速度和 ESD 改造時間,到 2025 年每年將可用供應量減少 1.5% 至 2%。

  • Clarksons remind us though that uncertainties on the demand side remain with Chinese dry bulk demand growth facing challenges from the property sector and the sensitivity to the Chinese government steel and energy policies. Diana's business strategy and chartering policy remains steady.

    但克拉克森提醒我們,需求方面的不確定性依然存在,中國乾散貨需求成長面臨房地產產業以及對中國政府鋼鐵和能源政策敏感度的挑戰。戴安娜的業務策略和包機政策保持穩定。

  • And this chartering policy will allow us to take advantage of any upcoming increase in bulk carrier earnings. While at the same time, the strength of the company's balance sheet remains the top priority as has always been the case.

    這項租船政策將使我們能夠利用散裝貨船收益即將增加的機會。同時,公司資產負債表的實力仍然是重中之重,一如既往。

  • I will now pass the call to our CEO, Semiramis Paliou, for summary of the company's priorities and future goals. Thanks.

    我現在將把電話轉給我們的執行長 Semiramis Paliou,以總結公司的優先事項和未來目標。謝謝。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

    Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Stasi. Before we open the call up to question-and-answer session, I would like to summarize the key points from today's presentation. Firstly, our dedication is on generating and securing positive free cash flows.

    謝謝你,史塔西。在我們開始問答環節之前,我想先總結一下今天演講的要點。首先,我們致力於產生和確保正的自由現金流。

  • Through prudent and active management of our balance sheet, we aim to capitalize on the opportunities presented.

    透過審慎和積極地管理我們的資產負債表,我們的目標是利用所出現的機會。

  • Secondly, we are proactive in renewing and modernizing our fleet, enhancing our ecological footprint in greener investments, aligning with our sustainability and environmental responsibility.

    其次,我們積極更新和現代化我們的機隊,增強我們在綠色投資中的生態足跡,與我們的永續發展和環境責任保持一致。

  • Thirdly, our dedication persists in adhering to a strategy that offers stability in a cyclical business while striving to maximize long-term shareholder value. Thank you very much.

    第三,我們始終堅持週期性業務穩定的策略,並努力實現股東長期價值最大化。非常感謝。

  • I will turn the call back to our operator for the Q&A session.

    我會將電話轉回給我們的接線生進行問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Kristoffer Skeie, Arctic Securities.

    (操作員指示)Kristoffer Skeie,北極證券。

  • Kristoffer Skeie - Analyst

    Kristoffer Skeie - Analyst

  • Hello. Congrats on another good quarter. I was just wondering if you could comment on the balance sheet and investments in equity securities of $20.7 million as of year-end. And is that related to this offshore joint venture or --?

    你好。恭喜又一個美好的季度。我只是想知道您是否可以對截至年底的 2070 萬美元的資產負債表和股本證券投資發表評論。與該離岸合資企業有關嗎?——?

  • Ioannis Zafirakis - President , Interim Chief Financial Officer, Company Secretary, Director

    Ioannis Zafirakis - President , Interim Chief Financial Officer, Company Secretary, Director

  • This is an investment that we have. We do not have to disclose the details of that investment. It's not material enough that we need to do a filing. So unfortunately, we cannot disclose.

    這是我們的一項投資。我們不必披露該投資的細節。這還不夠重要,我們需要進行備案。不幸的是,我們無法透露。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further or closing comments.

    謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給管理階層,以徵求進一步的意見或結束意見。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

    Semiramis Paliou - Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you very much for joining us today and look forward to seeing you at our next earnings call.

    非常感謝您今天加入我們,並期待在我們的下一次財報電話會議上見到您。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路廣播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。