Diana Shipping Inc (DSX) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Diana Shipping Inc. conference call on the third quarter 2025 financial results. We are joined by the company's Chief Executive Officer; Ms. Semiramis Paliou.

    感謝您的耐心等待。女士們、先生們,歡迎參加戴安娜航運公司2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。我們今天連線的是公司執行長塞米拉米斯·帕利烏女士。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded. We now turn the floor over to Ms. Semiramis Paliou. Please go ahead.

    (操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄音。現在我們把發言權交給塞米拉米斯·帕利烏女士。請繼續。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Diana Shipping Inc.'s third quarter 2025 financial results conference call. I'm Semiramis Paliou, the CEO of the company; and it's my pleasure to present alongside our esteemed team, Mr. Stasi Margaronis, Director and President; Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Director, Co-CFO and Chief Strategy Officer; Mr. Eleftherios Papatrifon, Director; and Ms.Maria Dede, Co-CFO.

    女士們、先生們,早安,歡迎參加戴安娜航運公司2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。我是公司執行長 Semiramis Paliou;我很高興與我們尊敬的團隊成員一起向大家介紹公司,他們是:董事兼總裁 Stasi Margaronis 先生;董事、聯合首席財務官兼首席戰略官 Ioannis Zafirakis 先生;董事 Eleftherios Papatrifon 先生;以及聯合首席財務官 Maria Dede 女士。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone to review the forward-looking statement on Page 4 of the accompanying presentation. The dry bulk market posted a solid performance in Q3. Capes once again outperformed, especially towards the end of the quarter. Yet after a lackluster first half of the year, we finally saw some tailwinds in the Panamax sector.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家查看隨附簡報第 4 頁的前瞻性聲明。第三季乾散貨市場表現穩健。海角型股票再次表現出色,尤其是在季度末。然而,在經歷了上半年的低迷之後,我們終於在巴拿馬型船領域看到了一些利多因素。

  • The main reason for this was the fact that China imported no soya beans from the U.S in September, which marked the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero. This impact was somewhat offset by the fact that South American shipments surged from a year earlier, therefore, increasing ton miles and providing upward pressure on the Panamax sector.

    主要原因是中國9月沒有從美國進口任何大豆,這是自2018年11月以來首次出現零進口的情況。南美洲的貨運量比上年同期大幅增長,從而增加了噸英里數,並對巴拿馬型船行業帶來了上行壓力,這在一定程度上抵消了上述影響。

  • Overall, bulk carrier markets picked up after a softer first half of 2025 due to a record September for Chinese imports, reaching 200 million metric tons. Subsequently, Q3 achieved record Chinese imports of nearly 580 million metric tons.

    整體而言,由於中國9月進口量創下歷史新高,達到2億公噸,散裝貨船市場在經歷了2025年上半年疲軟後開始回升。隨後,第三季中國進口量創下近 5.8 億公噸的紀錄。

  • The quarter also saw continuing war-related activity in both the Red Sea and the Black Sea. This situation remains volatile and avoidance of the area is likely to continue. Because of the Capesize resilience and the improvement in the smaller sizes, we were able to secure several charters across all segments in the fleet at higher levels than previously and again, at a considerable premium over the spot market.

    本季紅海和黑海地區也持續發生與戰爭有關的事件。當前局勢依然不穩定,人們可能會繼續避開該地區。由於好望角型船舶的韌性以及小型船舶的改進,我們得以在船隊的所有細分市場中獲得多個租船合同,租金水平比以前更高,而且再次比現貨市場價格高出不少。

  • Turning to Slide 5. Let's review our company's snapshot as of today. Diana Shipping, Inc. founded in 1972 and listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2005, operates a fleet of 36 dry bulk vessels, one of which is mortgage free. Our fleet has an average age of just under 12 years and a total deadweight capacity of approximately 4.1 million tons.

    翻到第5張投影片。讓我們回顧一下公司截至今日的概況。Diana Shipping, Inc. 成立於 1972 年,自 2005 年起在紐約證券交易所上市,經營一支由 36 艘乾散貨船組成的船隊,其中一艘沒有抵押貸款。我們的船隊平均船齡略低於 12 年,總載重噸位約為 410 萬噸。

  • We anticipate the delivery of two methanol dual-fuel newbuilding Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels at the end of 2027 and early 2028, respectively. Fleet utilization reached 99.5% for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting our effective vessel management strategy.

    我們預計將分別於 2027 年底和 2028 年初交付兩艘甲醇雙燃料新建的 Kamsarmax 型乾散裝貨船。2025年第三季船隊利用率達99.5%,凸顯了我們有效的船舶管理策略。

  • As of the end of September, we employed 960 individuals at sea and the shore. Financially, our net debt stands at 54% of market value, supported by $140 million in cash reserves as of quarter end and total secured revenues of approximately $150 million as of November 12.

    截至9月底,我們在海上和岸上共僱用了960名員工。從財務角度來看,我們的淨債務佔市值的 54%,截至季度末,我們擁有 1.4 億美元的現金儲備,截至 11 月 12 日,我們已獲得約 1.5 億美元的擔保收入。

  • Moving on to Slide 6. Let's go over the key highlights from the second quarter and recent developments. In June, continuing the renewal and modernization of our fleet, we announced the sale of motor vessel Selina for a purchase price of approximately USD 11.8 million before commissions.

    接下來是第6張投影片。讓我們回顧一下第二季度的主要亮點和近期發展。6 月,為了繼續更新和現代化我們的船隊,我們宣佈出售機動船 Selina,購買價格約為 1,180 萬美元(不含佣金)。

  • She was delivered to her new owners in July 2025. In September, we signed a term loan facility with National Bank of Greece, secured by five vessels and drew down USD 55 million. In September, we released the company's 2024 ESG report, highlighting our ESG strategy and commitment to sustainable practices. You can find a copy of that on our website. As of September 29, 2025, we have acquired 14.9% of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited issued and outstanding common shares.

    她於 2025 年 7 月交付給新主人。9 月,我們與希臘國家銀行簽署了一份定期貸款協議,以五艘船舶為抵押,並提取了 5,500 萬美元。9 月,我們發布了公司 2024 年 ESG 報告,重點介紹了我們的 ESG 策略和對永續發展實踐的承諾。您可以在我們的網站上找到該文件的副本。截至 2025 年 9 月 29 日,我們已收購 Genco Shipping & Trading Limited 已發行及流通普通股的 14.9%。

  • As of November 12, 2025, we have secured USD 25.4 million of contracted revenues for 87% of the remaining ownership days of the year 2025 and have secured USD 118 million of contracted revenues for 50% of the ownership days of the year 2026.

    截至 2025 年 11 月 12 日,我們已確保 2025 年剩餘所有權天數的 87% 獲得 2540 萬美元的合約收入,並已確保 2026 年剩餘所有權天數的 50% 獲得 1.18 億美元的合約收入。

  • Finally, we are pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.01 per common share with respect to the third quarter of 2025, totaling approximately USD 1.16 million. Slide 7 summarizes our recent chartering activity from July 1, 2025, until November 12, 2025, we have secured time charters for 14 vessels. Six Ultramax vessels at an average daily rate of $13,800 for an average of 333 days. Four Panamax, Kamsarmax and Post-Panamax vessels at an average daily rate of $12,900 for an average of 331 days and four Capes and Newcastlemax vessels at an average of $24,500 for an average of 380 days.

    最後,我們很高興地宣布,2025 年第三季普通股每股派發現金股息 0.01 美元,總計約 116 萬美元。投影片 7 總結了我們最近的租船活動,從 2025 年 7 月 1 日至 2025 年 11 月 12 日,我們已為 14 艘船舶簽訂了定期租船合約。六艘超大型散裝貨船,平均每日租金為 13,800 美元,平均租期為 333 天。四艘巴拿馬型、卡姆薩爾型和後巴拿馬型船舶,平均日租金為 12,900 美元,平均租期為 331 天;四艘好望角型和紐卡斯爾型船舶,平均租金為 24,500 美元,平均租期為 380 天。

  • Slide 8 highlights our disciplined chartering strategy. We focus on staggered medium- to long-term charters to avoid clustered maturities, ensuring earnings visibility and resilience against market downturns. This disciplined chartering strategy has secured approximately $149 million in contracted revenues, resulting in an average time charter rate of $16,200 per day with an average contract duration of one year and 1.17 years. For the rest of 2025, only 13% of days remain unfixed.

    第 8 張投影片重點介紹了我們嚴謹的包機策略。我們專注於錯開中長期租約,以避免租約集中到期,從而確保收益可見性和抵禦市場低迷的能力。這種嚴謹的租船策略已確保了約 1.49 億美元的合約收入,平均每日租船費率為 16,200 美元,平均合約期限為一年或 1.17 年。2025 年剩餘的時間裡,只有 13% 的日子尚未確定。

  • Now I'll pass the floor to our Co-CFO, Maria Dede, for a more detailed financial analysis.

    現在我將把發言權交給我們的聯合財務長瑪麗亞·德德,讓她進行更詳細的財務分析。

  • Maria Dede - Chief Accounting Officer

    Maria Dede - Chief Accounting Officer

  • Thanks, Semiramis. Good morning, and welcome to our call. I will begin with an overview of our financial performance for the third quarter, and the nine-month period ended September 30, 2025, followed by a discussion of our capital structure, breakeven analysis and dividend policy. We start with the financial highlights for the third quarter of 2025. Time charter revenues were $51.9 million, slightly lower than $57.5 million in the same quarter last year.

    謝謝你,塞米拉米斯。早上好,歡迎參加我們的電話會議。我將首先概述我們第三季以及截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的九個月期間的財務業績,然後討論我們的資本結構、損益兩平分析和股利政策。我們先來看看2025年第三季的財務亮點。定期租船收入為 5,190 萬美元,略低於去年同期的 5,750 萬美元。

  • This decline reflects the sale of two vessels earlier this year and one vessel in September 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million compared to $23.7 million in the third quarter last year, consistent with the smaller fleet. Net income, however, nearly doubled to $7.2 million from $3.7 million in the third quarter of 2024. This was driven by lower expenses and the $10.6 million gain from the valuation of our investment in Genco, partly offset by a loss in OceanPal. Diluted earnings per common share were $0.05, up from $0 in the third quarter of 2024.

    這一下降反映了今年早些時候出售了兩艘船,以及2024年9月出售了一艘船。經過調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,030 萬美元,而去年第三季為 2,370 萬美元,這與船隊規模縮小的情況相符。然而,淨收入幾乎翻了一番,從 2024 年第三季的 370 萬美元增至 720 萬美元。這主要得益於支出減少以及我們對 Genco 的投資估值帶來的 1,060 萬美元收益,但部分被 OceanPal 的虧損所抵銷。稀釋後每股普通股收益為 0.05 美元,高於 2024 年第三季的 0 美元。

  • On the balance sheet, cash decreased to $133.9 million as of September 30, 2025, from $207.2 million as of December 31, 2024. This reduction reflects cash deployed in strategic investments during this nine-month period, including $103.5 million paid for the acquisition of 14.93% ownership interest in Genco, $23 million invested in share repurchases of our common stock and $12 million invested in [Genco] and Ecogas 2 of our equity method investments. To strengthen liquidity, we sold two of our older vessels in the fleet, generating approximately $23 million and drew down $55 million under a new loan facility with National Bank of Greece.

    資產負債表顯示,截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,現金減少至 1.339 億美元,截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日為 2.072 億美元。這一減少反映了這九個月期間用於戰略投資的現金,包括為收購 Genco 14.93% 的所有權權益而支付的 1.035 億美元,投資於回購我們普通股的 2300 萬美元,以及投資於我們權益法投資的 [Genco] 和 Ecogas 2 的 1200 萬美元。為了增強流動性,我們出售了船隊中的兩艘較舊的船舶,獲得了約 2300 萬美元的收入,並根據與希臘國家銀行達成的新貸款協議提取了 5500 萬美元。

  • By optimizing capital through vessel sales and the new loans, we strengthened liquidity while fine-tuning our fleet for efficiency. As a result, long-term debt increased slightly to $651.1 million as of September 30, 2025, from $637.5 million at year-end 2024.

    透過出售船舶和發放新貸款來優化資本,我們增強了流動性,同時優化了船隊以提高效率。因此,截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,長期債務略微增加至 6.511 億美元,而 2024 年底為 6.375 億美元。

  • Operationally, this quarter was smooth with no surprises and with results reflecting the smaller fleet. During the quarter, we operated an average of 36.2 vessels compared to 38.7 vessels in the same quarter last year following the sale of Houston in 2024, in March and Selina in July 2025. This reduction affected ownership available and operating days.

    本季營運平穩,沒有出現任何意外,業績也反映了船隊規模縮小的情況。本季度,我們平均營運 36.2 艘船舶,而去年同期為 38.7 艘,這是由於 2024 年 3 月出售了 Houston 號,以及 2025 年 7 月出售了 Selina 號。這一減少影響了可用所有權和營運天數。

  • Time charter equivalent averaged $15,178 per day, a 1% decrease compared to $15,333 per day in the third quarter last year due to softer charter rates. Fleet utilization remained strong at 99.4%. Vessel operating expense for the quarter decreased by 6% to $20 million compared to $21.2 million in the third quarter last year due to the smaller fleet size.

    由於租船費率走軟,期租等效價格平均每天為 15,178 美元,比去年第三季的每天 15,333 美元下降了 1%。車隊利用率維持在99.4%的強勁水準。由於船隊規模縮小,本季船舶營運費用較去年同期的 2,120 萬美元下降了 6%,至 2,000 萬美元。

  • On a per share basis, daily operating expenses rose 1% to $6,014 compared to $5,964 last year, mainly due to higher crew costs. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, time charter revenues dropped by 6% to $161.5 million from $171.1 million for the same period last year.

    以每股計算,每日營運費用上漲 1% 至 6,014 美元,而去年同期為 5,964 美元,主要原因是船員成本增加。截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的九個月,定期租船收入下降 6%,從去年同期的 1.711 億美元降至 1.615 億美元。

  • Net income surged to $14.7 million compared to $3 million in the same period last year, an increase driven by nonoperating gains compared to losses in the same period last year and the absence of debt extinguishment losses seen in 2024.

    淨收入飆升至 1,470 萬美元,而去年同期為 300 萬美元,成長主要得益於非經營性收益(去年同期為虧損)以及 2024 年債務清償損失的取消。

  • Time charter equivalent improved to $15,473 per day compared to $15,162 per day in the same period last year. Fleet utilization remained high at 99.5%. Daily operating expenses for the nine-month period rose slightly to $5,941 compared to $5,910 for the same period last year, again, due to higher crew costs. The average age of our fleet is approximately 12 years.

    與去年同期相比,定期租船當量提高至每天 15,473 美元,而去年同期為每天 15,162 美元。車隊利用率維持在99.5%的高點。由於船員成本增加,前九個月的每日營運費用略微上升至 5,941 美元,而去年同期為 5,910 美元。我們車隊的平均車齡約為12年。

  • On the next slide, -- you can see our debt structure and amortization schedule. We remain -- we maintain a disciplined approach to leverage. Our debt structure includes both fixed and variable rate instruments with projected loan balances declining steadily through 2032. Our $175 million senior unsecured bonds and other loan maturities coming due in 2029 and beyond will be addressed well in advance to ensure liquidity stability and minimize financing risk. In the next slide, we compare our free cash flow breakeven levels against estimated revenues for the remainder of 2025 and 2026.

    下一張投影片,您可以看到我們的債務結構和攤還計劃。我們依然-我們堅持採取嚴謹的槓桿策略。我們的債務結構包括固定利率和浮動利率工具,預計到 2032 年貸款餘額將穩定下降。我們將提前妥善處理 2029 年及以後到期的 1.75 億美元優先無擔保債券和其他貸款,以確保流動性穩定並最大限度地降低融資風險。在下一張投影片中,我們將自由現金流損益平衡水準與 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年的預期收入進行比較。

  • As of September 30, 2025, our cash flow breakeven rate stood at $16,806 per day. For the remainder of 2025, potential revenues, including estimating revenues for the unfixed days based on FFA rates could reach $29.1 million at an estimated average time charter rate of $16,189 per day.

    截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日,我們的現金流量損益兩平率為每天 16,806 美元。2025 年剩餘時間的潛在收入(包括根據 FFA 費率估算的未固定日期的收入)可能達到 2,910 萬美元,估計平均定期租船費率為每天 1,6189 美元。

  • For 2026, potential revenues could reach $224.7 million at an average time charter rate of $17,102 per day. While projected revenues for 2025 may not fully cover breakeven, the outlook for 2026 looks positive, supporting a return to cash flow profitability.

    到 2026 年,以平均每日 17,102 美元的定期租船費率計算,潛在收入可能達到 2.247 億美元。雖然預計 2025 年的收入可能無法完全彌補損益平衡,但 2026 年的前景看起來不錯,有望恢復現金流獲利。

  • This slide highlights dividend distributions since the third quarter of 2021, the company has consistently delivered quarterly dividends in both cash and shares. In line with this policy, we declared a dividend of $0.01 per share, for the third quarter of 2025, bringing cumulative dividends paid since 2021 to $2.69 per common share.

    這張投影片重點介紹了自 2021 年第三季以來的股息分配情況,該公司一直以現金和股票的形式按季度派發股息。根據這項政策,我們宣布派發 2025 年第三季每股 0.01 美元的股息,使 2021 年以來累計派發的股息達到每股普通股 2.69 美元。

  • In summary, despite a smaller fleet, we delivered strong profitability, optimized our capital structure and maintained high operational efficiency. Our liquidity actions and debt management provide resilience and flexibility for future opportunities. I will now hand over to Stasi Margaronis, who will provide an overview of the dryl bulk market.

    總而言之,儘管船隊規模較小,但我們實現了強勁的獲利能力,優化了資本結構,並維持了較高的營運效率。我們的流動性措施和債務管理為未來的機會提供了韌性和靈活性。現在我將把發言權交給史塔西·馬加羅尼斯,他將概述乾散貨市場。

  • Anastasios Margaronis - President, Director

    Anastasios Margaronis - President, Director

  • Thank you, Maria, and welcome to the participants of this latest quarterly earnings call of Diana Shipping, Inc. Starting with the geopolitical and trade developments in bulk shipping. The bulk carrier market has weathered well the continuous announcements of new tariffs as well as several changes in the U.S. tariff regime with its trading partners. As of November 18, the 12-month time charter rate for a typical Cape without scrubbers stood at around $24,000 a day.

    謝謝瑪麗亞,歡迎各位參加戴安娜航運公司最新季度財報電話會議。首先,我們來談談散裝航運的地緣政治和貿易發展。儘管不斷宣布新的關稅,以及美國與其貿易夥伴之間關稅制度的多次變化,散裝貨船市場依然經受住了考驗。截至 11 月 18 日,一艘沒有脫硫裝置的典型好望角型船舶的 12 個月定期租船費率約為每天 24,000 美元。

  • The equivalent rate for a Kamsarmax was USD 15,600 per day for an Ultramax about $15,900 per day. All these rates were up on the levels we saw at the beginning of the year and from three months ago.

    Kamsarmax 型貨輪的日租金約為 15,600 美元,Ultramax 型貨輪的日租金約為 15,900 美元。所有這些比率都高於年初的水平和三個月前的水平。

  • On November 19, the DCI stood at $3,636 and the Baltic Panamax Index at $1,895. In the meantime, the 5 TC route weighted time charter average for Capes stood at $30,154 per day, while the Panamax 5 TC route average rate stood at $17,057 per day.

    11 月 19 日,DCI 指數報 3,636 美元,波羅的海巴拿馬型船指數報 1,895 美元。同時,海角 5 TC 航線的加權定期租船平均價格為每天 30,154 美元,而巴拿馬型 5 TC 航線的平均價格為每天 17,057 美元。

  • As a result, sentiment remains high and some newbuilding orders are already appearing across the size sector, most of them for ships with deliveries from 2028 onwards. As mentioned by Clarksons, the recently announced U.S.-China trade war troops include a U.S. pledge to reduce tariffs on imports from China from 30% to 20% -- the resumption of China's purchases of U.S soybeans, the rollback of China's export restrictions on rare earth and most notably, the suspension for a year of the introduction of the USTR port fees and reciprocal port fees for some U.S.-linked vessels entering China.

    因此,市場情緒依然高漲,各個尺寸等級的船舶都已開始出現一些新造船訂單,其中大部分訂單的交付日期為 2028 年及以後。正如克拉克森所提到的,最近宣布的美中貿易戰措施包括美國承諾將中國進口商品的關稅從 30% 降至 20%;中國恢復購買美國大豆;取消中國對稀土的出口限制;最值得注意的是,暫停一年內對進入中國的某些與美國有關的船舶徵收美國貿易代表辦公室的港口費和對等港口費。

  • According to Commodore Research, the purchase of U.S. soybeans by China represents a supportive factor for midsized bulkers for the rest of the year and into 2026. Exports to China will be much stronger over the next few months, and this will be a very helpful tailwind for the dry bulk carrier market. This is according to Clarksons true, even though China has earlier this year sourced soybeans for purchase to replace U.S. produce from Brazil, which involves a longer laden voyage than from the U.S.

    據 Commodore Research 稱,中國購買美國大豆將對今年剩餘時間和 2026 年的中型散裝大豆生產商構成支撐。未來幾個月對華出口將大幅成長,這將對乾散貨船市場起到非常有利的推動作用。克拉克森公司表示,這是事實,儘管中國今年稍早從巴西採購大豆來取代美國大豆,而從巴西進口大豆的航程比從美國進口大豆的航程要長。

  • Lower volumes though were shipped, which can be partly explained by the fact that China has been relying on the drawing down of elevated domestic stocks. In the next slide, we look at the macroeconomic development and considerations.

    不過,出貨量有所下降,部分原因可能是中國一直在依賴消耗高企的國內庫存。下一張投影片,我們將探討宏觀經濟發展和相關因素。

  • Economies around the world are showing signs of a relatively steady growth going forward. Latest growth forecast provided by the IMF and the OECD predict growth in Chinese GDP at around 4.8% this year and 4.2% in 2026. The equivalent figures for India of 6.6% and 6.2,%, for the U.S., 2% for this year and 2.1% for 2026. For the euro area, 1.2% this year and about the same for next year. For the world, the figure stands at 3.2% for this year and 3.1% in 2026.

    全球經濟都呈現相對穩定成長的跡象。國際貨幣基金組織和經合組織最新發布的成長預測顯示,今年中國GDP成長率約4.8%,2026年約4.2%。印度的相應數字分別為 6.6% 和 6.2%,美國今年的相應數字為 2%,2026 年的相應數字為 2.1%。歐元區今年的成長率為1.2%,明年預計也大致相同。今年全球的數字為 3.2%,到 2026 年為 3.1%。

  • Let's look at the main commodities now that are being shipped in bulk. Global steel production according to Braemar is down by 1.2% year-to-date at 1.373 billion metric tons. This has been having its effect on demand for metallurgical coal and iron ore.

    讓我們來看看目前批量運輸的主要商品。根據 Braemar 統計,今年迄今全球鋼鐵產量下降了 1.2%,至 13.73 億公噸。這已經對冶金煤和鐵礦石的需求產生了影響。

  • Chinese steel product exports are increasing strongly by over 5% year-on-year so far, which could help partially explain the continued demand by China for iron ore. Braemar reports that it is heavy engineering and ambitious investments in energy and industrial parks driven by AI that will probably support steel demand in China going forward as opposed to traditional construction demand on real estate and infrastructure projects. So for iron ore, Clarksons predict a slight increase of about 1% per annum in total imports at 1.621 billion tonnes for 2026. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has exports starting this month and volumes are expected to build up from this year to 2028.

    迄今為止,中國鋼鐵產品出口年增超過5%,這或許可以部分解釋中國對鐵礦石的持續需求。Braemar 報告稱,未來支撐中國鋼鐵需求的,可能是人工智慧驅動的重型工程以及對能源和工業園區的雄心勃勃的投資,而不是房地產和基礎設施項目等傳統建築需求。因此,克拉克森預測,到 2026 年,鐵礦石進口總量將略微增加約 1%,達到 16.21 億噸。幾內亞的西芒杜鐵礦石計畫本月開始出口,預計從今年到 2028 年,出口量將持續增加。

  • Long-haul exports to China should support ton-mile demand. However, Clarksons reminds us that uncertainty remains around how the iron ore market will absorb the new volume going forward. For coal, we have coking coal shipments, which are expected to remain more or less flat in 2026 and 2027, with support coming mainly from Indian demand as domestic coking coal reserves deplete and steel production keeps increasing. Thermal coal shipments are expected to go down by between 3% and 1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Coal imports to China have continued to go down about 10% so far this year, with demand being partially satisfied by imports from Mongolia and produce from domestic mines.

    對華長途出口應能支援噸英里需求。然而,克拉克森提醒我們,鐵礦石市場未來將如何消化新增產量仍存在不確定性。煤炭方面,煉焦煤出貨量預計在 2026 年和 2027 年將保持基本持平,主要支撐來自印度國內的需求,因為國內煉焦煤儲量正在減少,而鋼鐵產量卻在不斷增加。預計2026年和2027年動力煤出貨量將分別下降3%和1%。今年以來,中國煤炭進口量持續下降約 10%,部分需求由來自蒙古的進口煤炭和國內煤礦的煤炭產量來滿足。

  • Indian imports are projected to drop by 6% in 2025 due to increased domestic production. The medium term, demand will pick up as geothermal energy capacity outpaces domestic mining output. For grain exports, according to Clarksons, seaborne grain trade is expected to grow by 2% in 2025 and by about the same in 2026 to reach 566 million tons.

    由於國內產量增加,預計到 2025 年印度進口量將下降 6%。中期來看,隨著地熱能源產能超過國內採礦產量,需求將會回升。據克拉克森公司稱,到 2025 年,海運糧食貿易預計將成長 2%,到 2026 年也將成長約 2%,達到 5.66 億噸。

  • Brazilian grain exports and increased soybean exports from the U.S. should keep supporting this trend, hopefully, well into 2027. As regards the minor bulk trade, according to Clarksons, these trades are expected to grow by about 4% this year and by a further 2% year-on-year in 2026 at 2.4 billion metric tons.

    巴西糧食出口和美國大豆出口增加應該會繼續支撐這一趨勢,希望這種趨勢能持續到 2027 年。至於小宗散貨貿易,據克拉克森公司稱,預計今年這些貿易將增長約 4%,到 2026 年將同比增長 2%,達到 24 億公噸。

  • Approximately similar growth rates are expected for 2027, depending on key macroeconomic trends and geopolitical tensions. Bauxite, cement, feed products and forest products are expected to be the main commodities shipped in large volumes going forward. Turning to the next slide on tonnage supply.

    預計 2027 年的成長率與此大致相同,具體取決於關鍵的宏觀經濟趨勢和地緣政治緊張局勢。預計未來鋁土礦、水泥、飼料產品和林產品將成為大量出貨的主要商品。接下來請看下一張投影片,內容是關於噸位的供應。

  • According to Clarksons, the bulk carrier fleet is forecast to grow by 3.1% this year and by 3.4% in 2026. For Capes, the projected tonnage increase is for only 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. For Panamaxes, the fleet projected increase is 3.5% this year and 4.6% in 2026.

    據克拉克森公司預測,散裝船隊今年將成長 3.1%,2026 年將成長 3.4%。對於海角型油輪而言,預計 2025 年噸位僅成長 1.4%,2026 年噸位僅成長 2.2%。巴拿馬型船舶預計今年船隊規模將成長 3.5%,2026 年將成長 4.6%。

  • According to Braemar, the bulk carrier fleet order book stands at 106.2 million deadweight tons, which represents 10.9% of the existing fleet. This total is made up of 37.8 million deadweight worth of Capes, which is about 9.3% of the fleet, 38.2 million deadweight of Panamax Kamsarmaxes, about 14.1% of the fleet and 28.4 million deadweight in Handymaxes, which are about 11.2% of the fleet.

    據 Braemar 稱,散裝船船隊訂單總量為 1.062 億載重噸,佔現有船隊的 10.9%。總計包括3,780萬載重噸的海岬型帆船(約佔船隊的9.3%)、3,820萬載重噸的巴拿馬型和卡姆薩爾型帆船(約佔船隊的14.1%)以及2,840萬載重噸的靈便型帆船(約佔船隊的11.2%)。

  • For Capes, the order book is certainly manageable going forward. And so it is for Handymax. The Panamax fleet where the order book is higher, includes, however, 467 ships built from 2005 and earlier. On the recycling side, according to Clarksons, the recycling market has been dominated for most of the year by low activity and cautious sentiment.

    對於海角帆船來說,未來的訂單量肯定是可以控制的。Handymax的情況也是如此。巴拿馬型船隊訂單較多,但其中 467 艘是 2005 年及以前建造的船舶。據克拉克森公司稱,在回收方面,今年大部分時間裡,回收市場一直處於低迷狀態,市場情緒也較為謹慎。

  • Softening steel prices, particularly in India, have dampened the appetite for tonnage by major scrap buyers. The average price for a handysize bulker offered for demolition has dropped to around $400 per light ton displacement. The forecast for dry bulk carrier demolition sales this year is for about 4.6 million deadweight tons for 5.3 million in 2026 and about 7 million in 2027 when various regulations and aging of large sections of the bulk carrier fleet take the to.

    鋼材價格走軟,尤其是在印度,抑制了主要廢鋼買家的需求。用於拆解的小型散裝貨船的平均價格已降至每輕噸排水量約 400 美元。今年乾散貨船拆解銷售量預計約 460 萬載重噸,2026 年將達到 530 萬載重噸,2027 年將達到約 700 萬載重噸,屆時各種法規和大量散裝船船隊的老化將導致這一趨勢。

  • The average age of dry bulk demolition candidates has gone up from 25.2 years in 2015 to 29.3 years in 2025. Turning to asset prices now. As Hartland Shipping Services point out, the combination of less ordering this year and more potential output at yards may have implied a crash in newbuilding prices.

    2015 年,待拆除乾散貨倉庫的平均年齡為 25.2 年,到 2025 年,數字上升至 29.3 年。現在來看資產價格。正如哈特蘭航運服務公司指出的那樣,今年訂單減少,加上船廠潛在產量增加,可能意味著新造船價格暴跌。

  • This has not occurred. Newbuilding prices have softened during the last quarter by just 1% and by between 3% and 4% year-on-year across the size spectrum, with cape newbuildings being quoted at around $73 million, Kamsarmaxes at around $36.25 million and Ultramaxes for 2028 delivery at around $33.25 million.

    這種情況尚未發生。上一季新造船價格僅下跌了 1%,年比下跌了 3% 至 4%,涵蓋了所有尺寸範圍。其中,2028 年交付的科德角型新造船報價約為 7,300 萬美元,卡姆薩爾型新造船報價約為 3,625 萬美元,超大型新造船報價約為 3,325 萬美元。

  • Secondhand bulk prices have crept up during the last quarter. The price of a five-year-old Cape has moved up by about 4% to $65 million, and Newcastlemax at around $72 million and Kamsarmaxes of the same vintage have also gone up by 4% to $33 million, while Ultramax prices have increased to $32 million.

    上個季度二手商品批發價格上漲。一艘船齡五年的 Cape 型貨輪價格上漲了約 4%,達到 6,500 萬美元;Newcastlemax 型貨輪價格約為 7,200 萬美元;同年代的 Kamsarmax 型貨輪價格也上漲了 4%,達到 3,300 萬美元;而 Ultramax 型貨輪價格則上漲至 3,200 萬美元。

  • Finally, let's look at the outlook for our industry. According to Clarksons, 2025 should prove to be a slightly softer year for bulk carrier earnings than 2024, with the fleet projected to grow by 3% and demand by not much more than 1%.

    最後,讓我們來看看我們行業的前景。克拉克森公司表示,2025 年散裝貨船的收益應該會比 2024 年略低,預計船隊規模將成長 3%,而需求成長不會超過 1%。

  • But Clarksons also point out that dry bulk trends have firmed in recent months amid the rebound in the coal trade and strong iron ore, bauxite and grain export volumes. In a nutshell, dry bulk demand trends have firmed in recent months.

    但克拉克森也指出,近幾個月來,隨著煤炭貿易的反彈以及鐵礦石、鋁土礦和穀物出口量的強勁增長,乾散貨趨勢趨於穩定。簡而言之,近幾個月來乾散貨需求趨勢趨於穩定。

  • Looking out to 2026, Clarksons sees a base case outlook of another moderate year for bulk carrier earnings, possibly like 2025 levels. Dry bulk trade is currently projected to grow by about 2% in ton-mile, slightly below fleet growth of about 3%. Markets could be balanced with support from special surveys and falling vessel speed.

    展望 2026 年,克拉克森認為散裝貨船獲利的基本前景將是另一個溫和的年份,可能與 2025 年的水平相似。目前預計乾散貨貿易量將成長約 2%(以噸英里計),略低於船隊約 3% 的成長率。特別調查和船舶航速下降可能會對市場起到平衡作用。

  • The Capesize market is expected to outperform the smaller segment. Looking further ahead, projections are much less reliable, even though the supply-demand numbers for 2027 are similar to those of 2026. Factors such as Chinese demand trends, the impact of environmental policy, Red Sea danger zone development and demolition trends will continue to influence the supply-demand balance going forward. So in the last slide, Slide 18, we can have a quick look on factors which according to analysts are going to affect the market on the positive and the negative side. On the positive side, we have strong South American grain exports and increased soybean exports from the U.S to China we have a gradual resolution of reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and its trading partners.

    預計好望角型船舶市場表現將優於小型船舶市場。展望未來,預測的可靠性要低得多,儘管 2027 年的供需數據與 2026 年的數據相似。中國需求趨勢、環境政策的影響、紅海危險區域開發和拆除趨勢等因素將持續影響未來的供需平衡。因此,在最後一張投影片(第 18 張投影片)中,我們可以快速了解分析師認為會對市場產生正面和負面影響的因素。正面的一面是,南美洲的糧食出口強勁,美國對中國的豆類出口也有所增加;美國與其貿易夥伴之間的相互關稅問題正在逐步解決。

  • Red Sea rerouting expected to continue for the rest of the year and well into 2026. strong steel product exports by China and the commencement of iron ore shipments from Simandou in Guinea. On the negative side, though, we have worldwide lower steel production that's outside India.

    紅海航線改道預計將持續到今年年底,並延續到 2026 年。中國鋼鐵產品出口強勁,幾內亞西芒杜鐵礦石開始出貨。但不利的一面是,除印度以外,全球鋼鐵產量較低。

  • Bulk carrier fleet growth outpacing demand for both this year and next, less so in the cape sector, increase in wind, nuclear and solar power production, particularly in China, anticipated long-term reduction in coal imports by China and possible failure in trade talks between the U.S. and the trading partners leading to higher tariffs and trade disruption.

    散裝船船隊成長速度超過今年和明年的需求,好望角型散裝船船隊成長速度略快,風能、核能和太陽能發電量增加,尤其是在中國,預計中國煤炭進口量將長期減少,以及美國與貿易夥伴之間的貿易談判可能失敗,導致關稅上升和貿易中斷。

  • On this note, I will pass the floor to our CEO, Semiramis Paliou, for some important takeaway points from this earnings call. Thank you.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給我們的執行長塞米拉米斯·帕利烏,讓他總結一下本次財報電話會議的一些重要要點。謝謝。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Stasi. And before concluding today's presentation, I'd like to highlight our ongoing ESG initiatives Diana Shipping, Inc. is committed to promoting eco-friendly technologies and modernizing our fleet, transparently sharing emission data to ensure accountability, building on partnerships and collaborations to advance our sustainability goals and developing an equitable, diverse and inclusive program while continuously investing in our people.

    謝謝你,史塔西。在結束今天的演講之前,我想重點介紹我們正在進行的 ESG 舉措。戴安娜航運公司致力於推廣環保技術,實現船隊現代化,透明地分享排放數據以確保問責制,加強夥伴關係和合作以推進我們的可持續發展目標,並製定公平、多元和包容的計劃,同時不斷投資於我們的員工。

  • In summary, moving on to Slide 20, Diana Shipping Inc. stands on a strong foundation built on over 50 years of industry experience and 20 years on the New York Stock Exchange. It is a seasoned management team adapt to addressing industry challenges, has a strong stakeholder relationship and a disciplined strategic approach. a solid balance sheet with a strong cash position and a countercyclical mindset and an ongoing fleet modernization effort, a focus on rewarding our shareholders when possible and a strong ESG strategy.

    總而言之,接下來是第 20 張幻燈片,戴安娜航運公司擁有超過 50 年的行業經驗和 20 年的紐約證券交易所上市經驗,其基礎非常穩固。這是一支經驗豐富的管理團隊,能夠適應產業挑戰,與利害關係人保持良好的關係,並採取了嚴謹的策略方針。公司擁有穩健的資產負債表和充裕的現金流,秉持反週期思維,並持續推動船隊現代化改造。公司著重在條件允許的情況下回報股東,並擁有強而有力的ESG策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Kristoffer Barth, Arctic Securities.

    (操作說明)克里斯多福·巴特,北極證券。

  • Kristoffer Barth Skeie - Analyst

    Kristoffer Barth Skeie - Analyst

  • How should we think about your quite significant stake in Genco now? Is there any sort of dialogue with the Board? You previously mentioned that the holding is of a strategic character, but I mean, they tightened the poison pill with the 15% threshold now recently. So sort of how does that impact your thoughts on sort of further dialogue here? And if you are just sort of opting for a passive stake, would you consider a Board seat?

    我們現在該如何看待您在Genco公司所持有的相當可觀的股份?是否與董事會進行過任何形式的對話?你之前提到過這項持股具有戰略意義,但我的意思是,他們最近收緊了“毒丸計劃”,將持股門檻提高到了 15%。那麼,這會對你接下來在此進行的對話產生什麼影響呢?如果你只是選擇被動投資,你會考慮擔任董事會席位嗎?

  • Ioannis Zafirakis - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Strategy Officer, Treasurer, Company Secretary, Director

    Ioannis Zafirakis - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Strategy Officer, Treasurer, Company Secretary, Director

  • This is Ioannis Zafirakis speaking. As we have said in the past, our position in Genco has a strategic value. Nevertheless, we are observing at the moment, and we are examining our various options on what to do and how to do it. We are not in contact with the current management of Genco. And we are observing the development.

    這裡是伊奧尼斯·扎菲拉基斯。正如我們過去所說,我們在Genco的股份具有戰略價值。不過,我們目前正在觀察,並研究各種可行的方案。我們目前與Genco的管理層沒有聯繫。我們正在觀察事態發展。

  • Kristoffer Barth Skeie - Analyst

    Kristoffer Barth Skeie - Analyst

  • And just a second question for me, if that's okay. Can you just comment a bit around the recent development in OceanPal? Do you still have a holding there? And what's the percent if that's the case?

    還有一個問題想問一下,可以嗎?您能否就 OceanPal 的最新進度稍作評論?你還持有那裡的股份嗎?如果情況屬實,那麼百分比是多少?

  • Ioannis Zafirakis - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Strategy Officer, Treasurer, Company Secretary, Director

    Ioannis Zafirakis - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Strategy Officer, Treasurer, Company Secretary, Director

  • Diana Shipping Inc. interest in OceanPal is very minimal after the latest raising of equity that they did, the one before the sovereign one. And it is certainly not material at this stage. So there's nothing to comment.

    在 Diana Shipping Inc. 完成最近一次股權融資(即主權融資之前的那次)之後,該公司對 OceanPal 的興趣非常有限。而且在現階段,這肯定不是實質問題。所以沒什麼好說的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Semiramis Paliou for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將會議交還給塞米拉米斯·帕利烏女士,請她作總結發言。

  • Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Semiramis Paliou - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you for joining us for Diana's Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. We look forward to presenting to you again in the next quarter. Thank you.

    感謝您參加戴安娜公司2025年第三季財務業績發表會。我們期待在下一季再次向您報告。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。