大全新能源 (DQ) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Daqo New Energy first-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加大全新能源 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessie Zhou, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係總監 Jessie Zhou。請繼續。

  • Jessie Zhou - Investor Relations Director

    Jessie Zhou - Investor Relations Director

  • Hello, everyone. I'm Jessie Zhou, the Investor Relations Director of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com.

    大家好。我是大全新能源投資者關係總監 Jessie Zhou。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。大全新能源剛發布了2025年第一季的財務業績,可在我們的網站www.dqsolar.com上查閱。

  • So today attending the conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu; our Deputy CEO, Ms. Anita Zhu; our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang; and myself. Today's call will begin with an update from Mr. Xu on market conditions and company operations followed by a translation from Ms. Anita Zhu for Mr. Xu, and then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter.

    今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長兼執行長徐翔先生;我們的副執行長 Anita Zhu 女士;我們的財務長楊明先生;還有我自己。今天的電話會議將首先由徐先生介紹市場狀況和公司營運情況,隨後由朱女士為徐先生翻譯,然後楊先生將討論公司本季度的財務業績。

  • After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the safe harbor provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risk and uncertainty.

    之後,我們將開放觀眾的問答環節。在我們開始正式發言之前,我想提醒大家,今天電話會議上的某些聲明,包括預期的未來營運和財務業績以及行業增長,都是根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款做出的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明涉及固有風險和不確定性。

  • A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding this is and other risks is included in the report or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary review as of today and may be subject to change.

    許多因素可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。有關此風險和其他風險的更多資訊包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交或提供的報告或文件中。這些聲明僅反映我們截至今天的當前和初步審查,可能會發生變化。

  • Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is that of today, and we will undertake no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law.

    我們實現這些預測的能力受到風險和不確定性的影響。今天電話會議中提供的所有資訊均為今天的信息,除非適用法律要求,否則我們不承擔更新此類資訊的義務。

  • Also, during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in US dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into US dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.

    此外,在通話過程中,我們偶爾會提及以美元計算的金額。請記住,我們的功能貨幣是人民幣。我們提供這些翻譯成美元只是為了方便觀眾。

  • Now I will return the call to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu. Mr. Xu, please go ahead.

    現在我將回電給我們的董事長兼執行長徐翔先生。徐先生,請說。

  • Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • (spoken in foreign language)

    (用外語說)

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

    Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

  • Hello, everyone. This is Anita. So thank you for joining our conference today, and I'll now deliver the management remarks on behalf of Mr. Xu.

    大家好。這是安妮塔。感謝大家參加今天的會議,現在我代表徐先生發表管理演講。

  • So in the first quarter of 2025, the solar PV industry continues to face significant challenges. Overcapacity persisted, and polysilicon prices stayed below cash cost levels. Although this caused Daqo New Energy to sustain quarterly operating and net losses, our losses narrowed sequentially, and we continued to maintain a strong and healthy balance sheet with no financial debt.

    因此,2025年第一季度,太陽能光電產業將繼續面臨重大挑戰。產能過剩持續存在,多晶矽價格仍低於現金成本水準。儘管這導致大全新能源維持季度營運和淨虧損,但我們的虧損環比有所收窄,並且我們繼續保持強勁健康的資產負債表,沒有財務債務。

  • As of March 31, 2025, the company had a cash balance of USD792 million, short-term investments of USD168 million, bank notes receivables of $63 million, and a fixed term bank deposit balance of USD1.1 billion.

    截至2025年3月31日,該公司現金餘額為7.92億美元,短期投資為1.68億美元,應收銀行票據為6,300萬美元,定期銀行存款餘額為11億美元。

  • In total, our quick assets, readily convertible into cash if needed, stood at USD2.15 billion, providing us with ample liquidity. With no financial debt, our solid financial position gives us the confidence that we will remain strategically resilient and well positioned to overcome the current market downturn.

    整體而言,我們的速動資產(如有需要可隨時轉換為現金)為 21.5 億美元,為我們提供了充足的流動性。由於沒有金融債務,我們穩固的財務狀況使我們有信心保持戰略彈性並處於有利地位以克服當前的市場低迷。

  • On the operational front, the company operated at a reduced utilization rate of approximately 33% of our nameplate capacity in response to challenging market conditions and weak selling prices. Total production volume at our two polysilicon facilities for the quarter was 24,810 metric tons, slightly below our guidance range of 25,000 metric tons to 28,000 metric tons.

    在營運方面,由於市場情況嚴峻和銷售價格疲軟,公司的產能利用率已降至約 33%。本季我們兩家多晶矽工廠的總產量為 24,810 公噸,略低於我們預期的 25,000 公噸至 28,000 公噸的範圍。

  • However, sales volume reached 28,008 metric tons, exceeding production and enabling us to reduce inventory to a healthier level. As a result of lower utilization across our factories, idle-facility related cost for the quarter was approximately $1.58 per kilogram, which was primarily related to non-cash depreciation expenses.

    然而,銷售量達到了 28,008 公噸,超過了產量,使我們能夠將庫存減少到更健康的水平。由於我們工廠的利用率較低,本季閒置設施相關成本約為每公斤 1.58 美元,這主要與非現金折舊費用有關。

  • Overall, polysilicon unit production cost increased by 11% sequentially to an average of USD7.57 per kilogram, primarily due to higher unit depreciation costs as a result of lower production. Our cash cost increased by 5% to USD5.31 per kilogram quarter over quarter, primarily due to maintenance and facilities related costs during the quarter.

    整體而言,多晶矽單位生產成本較上季成長11%,達到平均每公斤7.57美元,主因是產量下降導致單位折舊成本上升。我們的現金成本較上季增加 5% 至每公斤 5.31 美元,主要原因是本季的維護和設施相關成本。

  • In light of the current market conditions, we expect our total production volume in the second quarter of 2025 to be in the range of 25,000 to 28,000 metric tons. As a result, we anticipate our full-year 2025 production volume to be in the range of 110,000 to 140,000 metric tons.

    鑑於目前的市場狀況,我們預計 2025 年第二季的總產量將在 25,000 至 28,000 公噸之間。因此,我們預計 2025 年全年產量將在 11 萬至 14 萬公噸之間。

  • During the first quarter, polysilicon producers implemented self-discipline measures to mitigate the impact of irrational competition amid falling prices, resulting in an industry-wide capacity utilization of approximately 50%. According to industry data, domestic polysilicon production volume came in at 105,500 metric tons in March and below 100,000 metric tons for both January and February. Consequently, supply in the first quarter fell short of demand, gradually reducing industry inventory levels.

    一季度,多晶矽企業為因應價格下跌帶來的非理性競爭影響,採取自律措施,全產業產能利用率維持在50%左右。產業數據顯示,3月國內多晶矽產量為10.55萬噸,1、2月產量均在10萬噸以下。因此,第一季供應不足以滿足需求,產業庫存水準逐漸降低。

  • On February 9, Chinese authorities introduced a market-based reform policy for new energy on-grid tariffs to promote the high-quality development of the renewable energy sector. All on-grid electricity generated from renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, will be traded through market mechanisms with prices determined by supply and demand. This policy aims to balance grid load more effectively.

    2月9日,中國政府推出了新能源上網電價市場化改革政策,以促進再生能源產業高品質發展。所有風能、太陽能等再生能源上網電量將透過市場機制進行交易,價格由供需關係決定。該政策旨在更有效地平衡電網負載。

  • As mandated in the policy, the cutoff date that distinguishes new projects from existing projects is May 31, 2025, and new energy projects that commence operations on and after June 1, 2025, will be subject to a provincial-level competitive bidding process.

    該政策規定,區分新建項目與現有項目的截止日期為2025年5月31日,2025年6月1日及以後投入營運的新能源項目將進行省級競爭性招標程序。

  • As the fixed-tariff structure for renewable energy electricity transitions to a market-based pricing mechanism, uncertainties around future electricity prices and revenue generation have emerged. In response, project developers and investors are accelerating project completions ahead of the June 1, 2025, deadline in order to secure current policy benefits, which has led to a surge in downstream installations.

    隨著再生能源電力由固定電價結構轉向市場定價機制轉變,未來電價和收益的不確定性也隨之出現。為了應對這一情況,專案開發商和投資者正在加速在2025年6月1日截止日期之前完成項目,以確保當前的政策優惠,這導致下游安裝量激增。

  • So fueled by this front-loading, market prices of solar products have trended upward, narrowing losses across the value chain, particularly for end products. However, given the relatively high level of polysilicon inventory held by wafer manufacturers, price increases have yet to fully materialize in the polysilicon segment.

    因此,在這種前期投入的推動下,太陽能產品的市場價格呈現上升趨勢,縮小了整個價值鏈的損失,特別是終端產品的損失。不過,由於矽片廠商的多晶矽庫存量相對較高,多晶矽價格上漲尚未完全實現。

  • Polysilicon prices remained stable throughout the quarter at approximately RMB37 to RMB42 per kilogram. In the medium to long-term, however, we believe current low prices and market downturn will eventually result in a healthier and more sustainable industry. As ongoing losses, poor profitability, and cash burn force less competitive players to exit the market, we expect overcapacity to be ultimately eliminated, bringing the solar PV industry back to normal improved profitability and healthier margins.

    本季多晶矽價格維持穩定,約每公斤37元至42元人民幣。然而,從中長期來看,我們相信當前的低價和市場低迷最終將使產業更加健康、更永續。由於持續的虧損、獲利能力差以及現金消耗迫使競爭力較弱的參與者退出市場,我們預計產能過剩最終將被消除,太陽能光電產業將恢復正常,獲利能力將提高,利潤率也將更加健康。

  • The solar PV industry continued to show promising prospects. China’s new solar PV installations reached 59.71 gigawatt in the first quarter, a robust 30.5% year-over-year growth. In the long run, as one of the most cost-effective and sustainable energy to resources worldwide, solar power is expected to remain a key driver of the global energy transition and sustainable development.

    太陽能光電產業持續展現出良好的發展前景。第一季度,中國新增太陽能光電裝置容量達59.71吉瓦,年增30.5%。從長遠來看,作為全球最具成本效益和永續性的能源之一,太陽能有望繼續成為全球能源轉型和永續發展的關鍵驅動力。

  • Looking ahead, Daqo New Energy is well positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth in the global solar PV market and strengthen its competitive edge by enhancing its higher-efficiency N-type technology and optimizing its cost structure through digital transformation and AI adoption.

    展望未來,大全新能源將充分利用全球太陽能光電市場的長期成長,並透過增強其更高效的N型技術以及透過數位轉型和人工智慧應用優化其成本結構來增強其競爭優勢。

  • As one of the world’s lowest-cost producers with the highest-quality N-type product, a strong balance sheet and no financial debt, we are confident in our ability to weather the current market downturn and emerge as a leader in the industry ready to capture future growth.

    作為全球成本最低、N 型產品品質最高的生產商之一,我們擁有強勁的資產負債表和零財務債務,有信心能夠度過當前的市場低迷期,並成為行業領導者,把握未來成長機會。

  • So now I will turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, who will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter. Ming, please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的財務長楊明先生,他將討論公司本季的財務表現。明,請說。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will now go over the company's first-quarter 2025 financial performance.

    謝謝你,安妮塔,大家好。我是大全新能源財務長楊明。感謝您今天參加我們的收益電話會議。現在我將回顧公司2025年第一季的財務表現。

  • Revenues were $123.9 million compared to $195.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $415 million in the first quarter of 2024. The decreasing revenue compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in sales volume.

    營收為 1.239 億美元,而 2024 年第四季為 1.954 億美元,2024 年第一季為 4.15 億美元。與 2024 年第四季相比,收入下降主要是因為銷售量下降。

  • Gross loss was $81.5 million compared to $65.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, and gross profit of $72 million in the first quarter of 2024. Gross margin was negative 66% compared to negative 33% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 17.4% in the first quarter of 2024. The decrease in gross margin compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 was primarily due to a lower average selling price and higher production costs.

    毛虧損為 8,150 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為 6,530 萬美元,2024 年第一季的毛利為 7,200 萬美元。毛利率為負 66%,而 2024 年第四季為負 33%,2024 年第一季為 17.4%。與 2024 年第四季相比,毛利率下降主要是由於平均售價下降和生產成本上升。

  • The SG&A expenses were $35.1 million compared to $29.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $38 million in the first quarter of 2024. SG&A expenses during the first quarter included $18.6 million in non-cash share-based compensation costs related to the company's sharing incentive plans compared to $14.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

    銷售、一般及行政費用為 3,510 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為 2,940 萬美元,2024 年第一季為 3,800 萬美元。第一季的銷售、一般及行政費用包括與公司股票激勵計畫相關的 1,860 萬美元非現金股份薪酬成本,而 2024 年第四季為 1,490 萬美元。

  • R&D expenses for the quarter were $0.5 million compared to $0.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $1.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. R&D expenses can vary from peer to peer and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter.

    本季研發費用為 50 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為 40 萬美元,2024 年第一季為 150 萬美元。研發費用可能因同業而異,並反映本季發生的研發活動。

  • And as a result of the foregoing, loss from operations was $114 million compared to loss of $300 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and income from operations of $30 million in the first quarter of 2024. The decrease of loss from operations in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 -- fiscal 2025 was also attributed to the long-lived asset impairment of $175.6 million assets and allowance for expected credit loss of $18 million recorted in the fourth quarter of 2024.

    由於上述原因,營業虧損為 1.14 億美元,而 2024 年第四季的營業虧損為 3 億美元,2024 年第一季的營業收入為 3,000 萬美元。2024 年第一季的營業虧損與 2024 年至 2025 財年第四季相比有所減少,這也歸因於 2024 年第四季記錄的 1.756 億美元的長期資產減損和 1800 萬美元的預期信貸損失準備金。

  • Operating margin was negative 92% compared to negative 154% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 7.3% in the first quarter of 2024. Net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders was $71.8 million compared to $180 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, and net income of $15.5 million in the first quarter of 2024. Loss per basic ADS was $1.07 compared to $2.71 in the fourth quarter of 2024, and earnings per basic ADS of $0.24 in the first quarter of 2024.

    營業利益率為負 92%,而 2024 年第四季為負 154%,2024 年第一季為 7.3%。歸屬於大全新能源股東的淨虧損為 7,180 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為 1.8 億美元,2024 年第一季淨收入為 1,550 萬美元。每股基本 ADS 虧損為 1.07 美元,而 2024 年第四季為 2.71 美元,2024 年第一季每股基本 ADS 收益為 0.24 美元。

  • Non-GAAP adjusted net loss attributable to Daqo New Energy shareholders, excluding non-cash share-based compensation costs, was $53 million compared to $170.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and adjusted net income of $36 million in the first quarter of 2024.

    歸屬於大全新能源股東的非美國通用會計準則調整後淨虧損(不含非現金股權激勵成本)為 5,300 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為 1.706 億美元,2024 年第一季調整後淨收入為 3,600 萬美元。

  • Adjusted loss per basic ADS was $0.80 compared to $2.56 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $0.55 in the first quarter of 2024. EBITDA was negative $48 million compared to negative $236 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $76.9 million in the first quarter of 2024. EBITDA margin was negative 39% compared to 121% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 18.5% in the first quarter of 2024.

    調整後每股基本 ADS 虧損為 0.80 美元,而 2024 年第四季為 2.56 美元。2024 年第一季調整後每股基本 ADS 收益為 0.55 美元。EBITDA 為負 4,800 萬美元,而 2024 年第四季為負 2.36 億美元,2024 年第一季為 7,690 萬美元。EBITDA 利潤率為負 39%,而 2024 年第四季為 121%,2024 年第一季為 18.5%。

  • Now on the company's financial condition. As of March 31, 2025, the company has $792 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash compared to $1.04 billion as of December 31, 2024, and $2.7 billion as of March 31, 2024.

    現在談談公司的財務狀況。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,該公司擁有 7.92 億美元現金、現金等價物和受限現金,而截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日為 10.4 億美元,截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日為 27 億美元。

  • And as of March 31, 2025, the notes receivable balance was $62.7 million compared to $55 million as of December 31, 2024, and $194 million as of March 31, 2024. Notes receivable represents banknotes with maturity within six months. And as of March 31, 2025, the balance of fixed term deposits within one year was $1.12 billion compared to $1.09 billion as of December 31, 2024, and nil as of March 31, 2024.

    截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,應收票據餘額為 6,270 萬美元,而截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日為 5,500 萬美元,截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日為 1.94 億美元。應收票據為六個月內到期的銀行票據。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日,一年內定期存款餘額為 11.2 億美元,而截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日為 10.9 億美元,截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日為零。

  • And now on the company's cash flows. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash used in operating activities was $38.9 million compared to $116 million in the same period of 2024. And for the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash used in investing activities was $211 million compared to $190.5 million in the same period of 2024.

    現在來談談公司的現金流。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的三個月,經營活動所用淨現金為 3,890 萬美元,而 2024 年同期為 1.16 億美元。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的三個月,投資活動所用淨現金為 2.11 億美元,而 2024 年同期為 1.905 億美元。

  • The net cash used in investing activities in the first quarter of 2025 was primarily related to the purchase of short-term investments and fixed term deposits. And for the three months ended March 31, 2025, net cash used in financing activities was nil, compared to $6 million in the same period of 2024.

    2025年第一季投資活動所用淨現金主要與購買短期投資及定期存款有關。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的三個月,融資活動所用淨現金為零,而 2024 年同期為 600 萬美元。

  • And that concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the calls to Q&A from the audience. Operator, please begin.

    我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在開始觀眾提問環節。接線員,請開始。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Philip Shen, Roth Capital Partners.

    (操作員指示)Roth Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • In your prepared remarks, you talked about overcapacity ultimately being eliminated. I was wondering if you could talk through when you think that could happen. And you also mentioned less competitive players will exit the market. Who have you seen exit thus far? And then which exits do you think might be near term? Thanks.

    您在準備好的發言中談到產能過剩最終將被消除。我想知道您是否可以談談您認為何時會發生這種情況。您也提到競爭力較弱的參與者將退出市場。到目前為止,您看到誰退出嗎?那麼您認為哪些退出可能是近期的?謝謝。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

    Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Phil. So in terms of the rebalancing of supply and demand, to give a quick recap, so back in 2024, the total polysilicon production volume is around 1.82 million metric tons. And the nameplate capacity -- production capacity of polysilicon of all completed projects, regardless of whether it's completed or temporary shutdown, exceeded 1,400 gigawatts, which is roughly 3.2 million metric tons. That's more than double of demand.

    謝謝你,菲爾。因此,就供需重新平衡而言,簡單回顧一下,到 2024 年,多晶矽總產量約為 182 萬公噸。所有已完工工程(包括已完工工程和暫時停工工程)的總產能——多晶矽生產能力超過 1,400 吉瓦,約 320 萬公噸。這是需求的兩倍多。

  • And what we've seen in this cycle compared to the previous cycle is that the incumbents and even some of the new players, they either have a very solid shareholder base, that in a worst case, can they inject asset or have other sources of financing. For instance, recently, we've seen Tongwei announcing [$10 billion R&D and fundraising at Yongxiang] subsidiary. So I think that's just one case that signals the rebalancing of supply and demand will take longer than expected compared to the previous cycles.

    與上一周期相比,我們在這一週期中看到的是,現有企業甚至一些新參與者要么擁有非常穩固的股東基礎,要么在最壞的情況下,他們可以注入資產或擁有其他融資來源。例如,最近我們看到通威宣布成立[永祥100億美元研發及融資]子公司。所以我認為這只是一個案例,顯示與先前的週期相比,供需的重新平衡將比預期花費更長的時間。

  • And we've seen that the overall industry utilization rate is currently at around 40% to 50%. And we actually haven't seen any companies completely exiting the market. Most of them are either lowering their utilization rate or undergoing this temporary shutdown. So it's hard to say when exactly we would see the players exiting, but as we are still transacting at prices below most of the company's cash cost, it will be relatively difficult for some of the companies to sustain the current situation.

    我們看到,目前整個產業的利用率約為40%至50%。我們實際上還沒有看到任何公司完全退出市場。其中大多數要么正在降低利用率,要么正在暫時關閉。因此,很難說我們何時會看到參與者退出,但由於我們的交易價格仍低於大多數公司的現金成本,因此一些公司將相對難以維持當前的狀況。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Thank you, Anita. That's helpful. So you mentioned the industry utilization rate is between 40% and 50%. Can you tell us what you expect that to trend or how you expect it to trend by quarter through this year? Do you think it goes above 50% by Q4, or do you think we're well below 50% even in Q4? Thanks.

    謝謝你,安妮塔。這很有幫助。所以您提到產業利用率在 40% 到 50% 之間。您能告訴我們您預計其趨勢如何,或者您預計其今年每季的趨勢如何嗎?您認為到第四季這比例會超過 50% 嗎?或者您認為即使在第四季度這一比例也遠低於 50% 嗎?謝謝。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

    Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, sure. So in the first quarter, the monthly domestic production actually came into around 90,000 to 100,000 metric tons per month. And we've seen a slight shortage in supply compared to the monthly demand, and the inventory depletion of polysilicon is actually happening at a very slow pace.

    是的,當然。因此,第一季度,國內月產量實際上達到了每月約 9 萬至 10 萬公噸。我們發現,與每月需求相比,供應略有短缺,多晶矽庫存消耗的速度實際上非常緩慢。

  • However, because of the high level of inventory in polysilicon, we see an almost, I would say, 400,000 metric tons in total at the poly manufacturer and at the ingot manufacturer. Now that's across the value chain. We think the inventory depletion will take at least four months, assuming the most extreme case of zero production per month and also a monthly production of 950,000 metric tons.

    然而,由於多晶矽庫存量高,我們可以估計,多晶矽製造商和矽錠製造商的庫存總量接近 40 萬公噸。現在這已經是整個價值鏈了。我們認為庫存消耗至少需要四個月的時間,假設最極端的情況是每月產量為零,每月產量為 950,000 公噸。

  • And because of that, the poly prices actually remained relatively stable during the first quarter, trading at RMB38 to RMB42 per kilogram with N-type from the top players actually coming in at [RMB41 to RMB42]. And as we're looking at the second quarter and maybe going forward, we believe the prices will be supported at the current level because of the policy that was ruled out in February. So we expect price level to sustain at the current range before the policy cutoff date of May 31.

    因此,第一季多晶矽價格實際上保持相對穩定,交易價格為每公斤 38 元至 42 元人民幣,頂級廠商的 N 型多晶矽價格實際上為[41元至42元]。展望第二季乃至未來,我們相信,由於二月取消的政策,價格將在當前水準得到支撐。因此,我們預計物價水準將在5月31日政策截止日期之前維持在當前區間。

  • Especially, because we expect strong April and May demand at around 55 to 65 gigawatts, which will translate to a poly demand of around 125,000. But we do see potential downside risks both coming from the policy change, also coming from the external tension, especially from the Trump administration trade war 2.0. So after the rush installation, we see the demand would trend down slightly, and that's why we maintain cautious and expect pricing to be relatively suppressed at the low-price range of RMB35 to RMB40 per kilogram throughout the remaining of 2025.

    特別是因為我們預計 4 月和 5 月的需求強勁,約為 55 至 65 吉瓦,這將轉化為約 125,000 個多晶矽的需求。但我們確實看到潛在的下行風險,既來自政策變化,也來自外部緊張局勢,尤其是川普政府貿易戰 2.0。因此,在緊急安裝之後,我們看到需求會略有下降,這就是我們保持謹慎的原因,我們預計在 2025 年剩餘時間內價格將相對受到抑制,在每公斤 35 至 40 元人民幣的低價範圍內。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, great. So again, a lot of information there. Thank you. So you said demand in China after May would be down slightly, but I think you mentioned 55 gigawatts for those April, May. What's your expectation for after May 31? How much demand -- how much lower could demand be on a monthly basis in China? Thanks.

    好的,太好了。所以,這裡有很多資訊。謝謝。所以您說 5 月份之後中國的需求會略有下降,但我認為您提到了 4 月份和 5 月份的需求為 55 吉瓦。您對 5 月 31 日之後有何期待?需求量有多少──中國每月的需求量會降低多少?謝謝。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

    Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

  • I think, overall, the whole year of 2025, we believe China demand will stay -- still come in relatively strong in the range of 250 to 300 gigawatts, which would be roughly equivalent to 1.4 million to 1.6 million metric tons of poly demand. Although compared to 2024, and they seem more stagnant, primarily because of the potentially deteriorating solar project returns which was impacted by the new policy in February, primarily because of the uncertainty and calculating the yield.

    我認為,總體而言,到 2025 年全年,我們相信中國的需求將保持相對強勁,保持在 250 至 300 吉瓦的範圍內,這大約相當於 140 萬至 160 萬噸的多晶矽需求。儘管與2024年相比,它們似乎更加停滯,主要是因為太陽能專案的回報率可能會下降,這受到了2月份新政策的影響,主要是因為不確定性和收益率的計算。

  • But in the long run, we are encouraged to see that renewable energy is actually transitioning to a more market driven and heading into a more sustainable and high-quality development compared to being subsidized by the government with more guaranteed on-grid volume price for all incremental renewable energy projects. So yeah, I think overall this year in China it would still be relatively supported at 250 to 300 gigawatts.

    但從長遠來看,與政府對所有增量再生能源項目進行上網電價更有保障的補貼相比,我們欣慰地看到,再生能源實際上正在向市場化轉型,走向更永續、更高品質的發展。所以是的,我認為今年中國總體上仍將相對支持250至300吉瓦。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Alan Hon, JP Morgan.

    (操作員指示) 摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 的 Alan Hon。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • My first question is regarding ADR delisting risk. I mean, what is the strategy? I mean you're looking forward to employ? Or what do you think, like, how should we encounter the ADR listing risk?

    我的第一個問題是關於 ADR 退市風險。我的意思是,策略是什麼?我的意思是你期待受僱嗎?或者您認為我們應該如何應對ADR上市風險?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

    Anita Zhu - Deputy Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thank you, Alan. So first of all, we fully understand our investor concern over the risk of forcing the ADR to delist from the US. Amid the heightened US-China trade war, although we -- I think that we would remain vigilant and consider the delisting of the ADR as a relatively low probability.

    好的。謝謝你,艾倫。因此,首先,我們完全理解投資者對 ADR 被迫從美國退市的風險的擔憂。在中美貿易戰加劇的情況下,儘管我們——我認為我們會保持警惕,並認為 ADR 退市的可能性相對較低。

  • I do acknowledge that the Trump administration is putting all options on the table, and because that this will be a key stake for negotiation as decoupling from the [other] two largest economies spread to the financial sectors. And we actually considered a potential dual listing of returning to the Hong Kong Exchange back in 2022 as some background information because of the risk arising from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. But that issue was effectively be resolved.

    我確實承認川普政府正在把所有選擇擺到桌面上,因為隨著與[其他]兩個最大經濟體脫鉤蔓延到金融領域,這將成為談判的關鍵。事實上,我們曾考慮過在 2022 年重返香港交易所雙重上市,作為一些背景訊息,因為《外國公司問責法》帶來了風險。但該問題已有效解決。

  • In the same year after PCAOB will be determined at the end of 2022 that it was able to inspect and investigate all the firms in Mainland China and Hong Kong completely. So it vacated its 2021 determination. And this is why our listing in Hong Kong was held off and we decided to keep our ADRs because the trading volume is much higher for the ADR compared to the Hong Kong listing.

    PCAOB將於2022年底確定其有能力對中國內地和香港的所有公司進行全面檢查和調查。因此它撤銷了2021年的決定。這就是我們推遲在香港上市的原因,我們決定保留 ADR,因為與香港上市相比,ADR 的交易量要高得多。

  • And based on my understanding, I think for Hong Kong listing would take maybe around six months depending on regulatory approvals of the market conditions, and our internal readiness. And to be fully transparent to our investors, while we have no immediate plans in place amid the current situation, we are definitely closely monitoring the market and the regulatory development.

    據我了解,我認為香港上市可能需要六個月左右的時間,具體取決於監管機構的批准、市場狀況以及我們的內部準備。為了對我們的投資者完全透明,雖然在當前情況下我們還沒有製定立即的計劃,但我們肯定會密切關注市場和監管的發展。

  • And we want to assure you that we remain fully committed to driving the long-term value for our stakeholders and also executing our long-term growth vision. And it's very unfortunate for us to see tensions escalating.

    我們想向您保證,我們將繼續全力致力於為利害關係人創造長期價值,並實現我們的長期成長願景。我們非常遺憾地看到緊張局勢不斷升級。

  • But if circumstances do exacerbate to the most extreme case of a force delisting, our management team will definitely evaluate all strategic options to protect the interests of our shareholders, such as a listing in Hong Kong or seek other means to do return capital to our shareholders.

    但如果情況真的惡化到強制退市的極端情況,我們的管理團隊一定會評估所有的策略選擇,以保護股東的利益,例如在香港上市,或尋求其他方式向股東返還資本。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. And my next question is regarding cash cost. I looked at the cash production cost in first quarter has edged up a little bit from fourth quarter last year. And there you mentioned about like a maintenance cost. Just want to like get a feeling about like the outlook on cash cost, I mean, in the subsequent quarters in the year.

    非常感謝。我的下一個問題是關於現金成本。我發現第一季的現金生產成本比去年第四季略有上升。您在那裡提到了維護成本。我只是想了解今年接下來幾季的現金成本前景。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Alan, thanks for your question. So cash cost did trend up slightly this quarter. I guess about 5% to 6% compared to the previous quarter. It's primarily due to two primary reasons. Okay, the first reason is that I think since December of last year, our Inner Mongolia Phase 2 was shut down completely and then went into what's called in Chinese [Weibo] or maintenance and also the facilities, right, for a longer term. So it's incurring equivalent to roughly $0.20 per kilogram of cost this quarter.

    好的。艾倫,謝謝你的提問。因此本季現金成本確實略有上升。我估計與上一季相比增長了大約 5% 到 6%。這主要有兩個原因。好的,第一個原因是,我認為自去年 12 月以來,我們的內蒙古二期計畫就完全關閉了,然後進入了中文所說的維護階段,設施也處於長期維護狀態。因此本季每公斤的成本約為 0.20 美元。

  • Okay, even though there's no production, there's that additional cost related to, for example, the electricity, the air, and the people employees that necessary to maintaining facilities. So that actually adds roughly $0.20 in cash cost.

    好的,即使沒有生產,也會產生額外的成本,例如與電力、空氣和維護設施所需的員工相關的成本。因此這實際上增加了大約 0.20 美元的現金成本。

  • Because if you look at the way that we record cash cost, it's actually all the [cap] costs that occur for the facilities, right, so not just for production but also for the maintenance, okay, and then we subtract out the depreciation and the non-cashier based compensation to arrive at the cash cost. Okay, so there's that $0.20 additional impact because of the maintenance late to the facility that's now being shut down.

    因為如果你看看我們記錄現金成本的方式,它實際上是設施發生的所有[上限]成本,對吧,所以不僅僅是生產成本,還有維護成本,好吧,然後我們減去折舊和非現金支付的報酬來得出現金成本。好的,由於該設施的維護延遲,目前已關閉,因此產生了 0.20 美元的額外影響。

  • And then there's another roughly $0.10 of [cost] to the maintenance facility. In the Mongolia I went to maintenance in roughly the second half of March, okay. So as you can see it has some impact on production and for the quarter -- and for example, if you compare to the previous quarter, right? I mean, we produced around 34,000 metric tons, right, and for this quarter we only produce roughly 24,800 metric tons, but we incurred relatively similar level of employees in terms of staffing costs, right. I think that's the part that has to be kind of amortized over a fewer amount of production. So there's that $0.10 impact of cost that we have.

    另外還有大約 0.10 美元的維護設施成本。在蒙古我大概在三月下半月去維護,好的。因此,正如您所看到的,它對生產和季度產生了一定的影響 - 例如,如果與上一季進行比較,對嗎?我的意思是,我們生產了大約 34,000 公噸,對吧,而本季度我們只生產了大約 24,800 公噸,但就人員成本而言,我們的員工數量相對相似,對吧。我認為這部分必須在較少的生產量中攤銷。因此我們的成本影響為 0.10 美元。

  • I think if we remove this impact, I think we would have a roughly $5. So I think going forward for Q2, I think, again, I think depending on production level, but I think based on current guidance, we should probably have similar to slightly lower cash cost compared to the current quarter.

    我認為,如果我們消除這種影響,我們將獲得約 5 美元的收入。因此,我認為展望第二季度,我認為,再次,我認為取決於生產水平,但我認為根據目前的指導,與本季度相比,我們的現金成本可能應該略低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jessie Zhou for any closing remarks.

    (操作員指示)我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Jessie Zhou 做最後發言。

  • Jessie Zhou - Investor Relations Director

    Jessie Zhou - Investor Relations Director

  • Thank you, everyone, again for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

    再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。如果您還有其他問題,請隨時與我們聯絡。謝謝您,祝您有美好的一天。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。