大全新能源 (DQ) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call.

    大家好,歡迎參加大全新能源2024年第四季業績電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

    (操作員指示)請注意,此事件正在被記錄。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Jessie Zhou.

    現在我想將會議交給 Jessie Zhou。

  • Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

    Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

  • Hello everyone, I'm Jessie Zhou, the investor relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Energy just issued its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com.

    大家好,我是大全新能源投資人關係的周傑西。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。Energy 剛剛發布了 2024 年第四季的財務業績,可在我們的網站 www.dqsolar.com 上查閱。

  • Today attending a conference call, we have our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu, our Deputy CEO Ms. Anita Zhu, our CFO Mr. Ming Yang, and myself. Mr. Zhou is on a business trip now, so he will make a brief introduction followed by Ms. Anita Zhu on our amendment remarks.

    今天參加電話會議的有我們的董事長兼執行長徐翔先生、副執行長朱安妮塔女士、財務長楊明先生和我自己。周先生現在正在出差,所以他會做一個簡短的介紹,然後由朱女士對我們的修改意見進行介紹。

  • Today's call will begin with the update from [Ms] on management, our market conditions, and the company operations. And then Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter and the year. After that, we will open the floor to Q&A from the audience.

    今天的電話會議將以[女士]對管理層、我們的市場狀況和公司運營的最新進展開始。隨後楊總將介紹公司本季及本年度的財務表現。之後,我們將開放觀眾的問答環節。

  • Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and growth are forward-looking statements that are made under the ;safe harbor' provisions of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995, and these statements involve coherent risk and uncertainty.

    在我們開始正式發言之前,我想提醒大家,今天電話會議上的某些聲明,包括預期的未來營運和財務業績和增長,都是根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的「安全港」條款做出的前瞻性聲明,這些聲明涉及連貫的風險和不確定性。

  • A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward statement. Further information regarding this is included in the report or documents we have dealt with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risk and uncertainty.

    許多因素可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異。有關此事的更多資訊包含在我們處理過或提供給證券交易委員會的報告或文件中。這些聲明反映了我們截至今天的當前和初步觀點,可能會發生變化。我們實現這些預測的能力受到風險和不確定性的影響。

  • All information provided in today's call is as of today, and we undertake no duty to update such information except as required under the applicable law. Also during the call, we will occasionally reference monetary amounts in US dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer this translation into US dollars solely for the convenience of the audience.

    今天電話會議中提供的所有資訊均截至今天為止,除非適用法律要求,否則我們不承擔更新此類資訊的義務。另外,在通話過程中,我們偶爾也會提及以美元計算的金額。請記住,我們的功能貨幣是人民幣。我們提供美元翻譯只是為了方便觀眾。

  • Now I was trying to call to our Chairman and CEO.

    現在我正試著打電話給我們的董事長兼執行長。

  • Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hello everyone. This is Xu Xiang, the CEO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you join us the conference call today. I need to go ahead.

    大家好。我是大全新能源總裁徐翔。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我需要繼續前進。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Thank you, Mr. Xu. Hello everyone. This is Anita Zhu. Thank you for joining our conference call today, and I'll now deliver the management remarks on behalf of.

    謝謝徐先生。大家好。我是 Anita Zhu。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議,現在我將代表管理階層發言。

  • So in 2024, we face a challenging market environment with excess capacity in the solar PV industry, leading to sharp price declines across the entire value chain. We proactively managed these difficulties by curtailing production to reduce cash burn, particularly in the third and fourth quarters. Nevertheless, we reached an annual polysilicon production volume of 200,568 metric tons in 2024, meeting our guidance of 200,000 metric tons to 210,000 metric tons.

    因此,到2024年,我們將面臨充滿挑戰的市場環境,太陽能光電產業產能過剩,導致整個價值鏈的價格急劇下跌。我們透過削減產量來減少現金消耗,積極應對這些困難,特別是在第三季和第四季。儘管如此,我們在 2024 年的多晶矽年產量達到了 200,568 公噸,達到了我們 20 萬公噸至 21 萬公噸的預期。

  • Which represented an increase of 3.7% year-over-year compared to 197,831 metric times in 2023. Our N type product mix increased significantly from approximately 40% of total production in 2023 to 70% in 2024. And we sold 181,362 metric tons in 2024, ending the year at a reasonable inventory level.

    與 2023 年的 197,831 公制倍數相比,年增 3.7%。我們的 N 型產品組合從 2023 年佔總產量的約 40% 大幅增加到 2024 年的 70%。我們在 2024 年銷售了 181,362 公噸,年底庫存水準合理。

  • Despite growing demand for solar PV products globally, the mismatch between demand and supply drove prices lower in 2024, even below cash cost. Overall, our policy on ASP decreased significantly from $11.48 per kilogram in 2023 to $5.66 per kilogram in 2024. And revenue came in at $1 billion compared to $2.3 billion in 2023 as a result of lower ASPs as well as lower sales volumes.

    儘管全球對太陽能光電產品的需求不斷增長,但供需不匹配導致 2024 年價格下跌,甚至低於現金成本。整體而言,我們的平均銷售價格政策從 2023 年的每公斤 11.48 美元大幅下降至 2024 年的每公斤 5.66 美元。由於平均售價較低以及銷售量下降,2020 年的營收為 10 億美元,而 2023 年的營收為 23 億美元。

  • As polysilicon ASPs fell below production costs starting in the second quarter of 2024, we reported a non-cash provision for inventory impairment and expense with a negative growth margin of 20.7% for 2024. Due to the continuous negative growth margin, we recorded a non-cash long-lived assets impairment charge of 175.6% million for the quarter related to our older polysilicon production line.

    由於多晶矽平均售價從 2024 年第二季開始跌至生產成本以下,我們報告了 2024 年存貨減損和費用的非現金撥備,負成長率為 20.7%。由於持續的負成長利潤率,我們本季記錄了與舊多晶矽生產線相關的非現金長期資產減損費用 1.756 億美元。

  • Despite the losses, Daqo Energy continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and ample cash reserves. At the end of 2024, the company had a cash balance of $1 billion. Short-term investments $10 million bank notes receivables $55 million, and a fixed term bank deposit balance of $1.1 billion.

    儘管出現虧損,大全新能源仍維持強勁的資產負債表和充足的現金儲備。截至2024年底,該公司現金餘額為10億美元。短期投資 1,000 萬美元、銀行應收票據 5,500 萬美元、定期銀行存款餘額 11 億美元。

  • Overall, the company maintains strong liquidity with a balance of quick assets of $2.2 billion USB, which can be readily converted to cash if needed. This solid financial position ensures we are well equipped to navigate the market downturn and remain strategically resilient. On the operational front, during the fourth quarter, the company continued to operate at a lower utilization rate of 40% to 50% of our nameplate capacity in light of weak market prices.

    總體而言,該公司保持強大的流動性,速動資產餘額為 22 億美元,如有需要,可以輕鬆轉換為現金。穩固的財務狀況確保我們有能力應對市場低迷並維持策略韌性。在營運方面,由於市場價格疲軟,第四季公司繼續以40%至50%的較低產能利用率營運。

  • The total production volume out of two polysilicon facilities for the quarter was 34,236 metric tons, further decreasing from the third quarter by 9,356 metric tons. Meanwhile, we intensified our efforts to reduce inventory, and our sales volume reached 42,191 metric tons in the fourth quarter compared to 42,101 metric tons in the previous quarter. As a result of lower utilization, idle facility-related cost for the quarter was approximately $1.02 per kilogram, which was primarily related to non-cash appreciation expense.

    本季兩家多晶矽工廠的總產量為34,236公噸,較第三季進一步減少9,356公噸。同時,我們加大了去庫存力度,第四季銷售量達到42,191噸,上一季為42,101噸。由於利用率較低,本季閒置設施相關成本約為每公斤 1.02 美元,主要與非現金增值費用有關。

  • Overall post kind unit production cost edged up 3% sequentially to an average of $6.81 per kilogram. However, thanks to our relentless efforts to improve operational efficiency, our cash costs declined further to $5.04 per kilogram, a 6% quarter over quarter decline compared to $5.34 per kilogram in the third quarter.

    整體郵政類單位生產成本較上月上漲 3%,達到平均每公斤 6.81 美元。然而,由於我們不懈努力提高營運效率,我們的現金成本進一步下降至每公斤 5.04 美元,與第三季的每公斤 5.34 美元相比環比下降 6%。

  • Due to the current market pricing environment, we currently expect total production volume in the first quarter of 2025 to be approximately 25,000 metric tons to 28,000 metric tons. We plan to maintain a relatively low utilization rate in 2025 until a turning point emerges in the sector. As a result, we currently anticipate full year production volume in 2025 to be approximately 110,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons.

    由於目前的市場定價環境,我們目前預計 2025 年第一季的總產量約為 25,000 公噸至 28,000 公噸。我們計劃在 2025 年維持相對較低的使用率,直到該行業出現轉捩點。因此,我們目前預計 2025 年全年產量約為 11 萬公噸至 14 萬公噸。

  • Discussions on industry self-regulation measures have been ongoing since the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the post com market remains sluggish, heading into the quarter as downstream customers continue drawing down accumulated inventory and coping with lower wafer capacity utilization rates of approximately 50%. polysilicon pricing remains stable within the cyclical bottom range of RMB36 to RMB42 per kilogram throughout the quarter.

    自第四季度以來,有關行業自律措施的討論一直在進行。同時,進入本季度,後通訊市場依然低迷,因為下游客戶繼續減少累積庫存,並應對約 50% 的較低晶圓產能利用率。本季多晶矽價格維持穩定在每公斤36元至42元人民幣的週期性底部區間內。

  • In November and December, leading poly producers reduced production to offset the higher hydroelectricity costs during the winter season and to mitigate inventory risks. As such, industry production policy silicon continues to decline month over month. According to industry statistics, the total production volume in China descended to approximately 100,000 electric tons per month in December, the lowest level in a year.

    11月和12月,領先的多晶矽生產商減少了產量,以抵消冬季水電成本的上升並降低庫存風險。因此,產業生產政策矽料持續逐月下降。根據產業統計,12月份中國總產量降至每月約10萬電噸,為一年以來的最低水準。

  • On December 26th, polysilicon futures trading trading officially launched with the initial benchmark price set at RMB38.6 per kilogram. Although some prices were higher at RMB42 to RMB43 per kilogram, future trading volume remained small and had limited impact on stock pricing. On a positive note, new solar PV capacity in China reached a record high of 68 gigawatts in December, which was beyond expectation and reinforced market confidence in the resilience of solar PV in the short run and market potential in the medium to long term.

    12月26日,多晶矽期貨交易正式啟動,初始基準價格為每公斤38.6元。雖然部分價格上漲至每公斤42至43元人民幣,但期貨交易量仍較小,對庫存定價的影響有限。正面的一面是,12月份中國太陽能光電新增裝置容量達到68吉瓦的歷史新高,超越預期,增強了市場對太陽能光電短期韌性和中長期市場潛力的信心。

  • Despite the significant challenges resulting from overcapacity in the solar PV industry, we have seen proactive initiatives to restore the industry's healthy development. On December 6, 2024, led by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, a company, along with other major solar PV manufacturers, have reached consensus that implementing self-discipline would be fundamental to mitigating the irrational competition amid falling prices and heightened global trade pressures.

    儘管太陽能光電產業面臨產能過剩的重大挑戰,但我們也看到了恢復產業健康發展的積極舉措。2024年12月6日,在中國光電產業協會的領導下,一家公司與其他主要太陽能光電製造商達成共識,在價格下跌和全球貿易壓力加劇的情況下,實施自律對於緩解非理性競爭至關重要。

  • Moreover, the solar PV industry continues to show strong demand prospects. For the year 2024, China's newly installed solar PV capacity grew 28% year-over-year to 277 gigawatts. Which not only hit a record high but also exceeded market expectations. We remain optimistic that as supply adjusts to more rational levels, we'll see a better balance between supply and demand this year. In the long run, as a renewable energy source and one of the lowest cost sources of electricity worldwide, solar power continues to be a key driver of global energy transition and sustainable development.

    此外,太陽能光電產業持續展現強勁的需求前景。預計2024年中國新增太陽能光電裝置容量將年增28%,達到277吉瓦。這不僅創下了歷史新高,也超出了市場預期。我們仍然樂觀地認為,隨著供應調整到更合理的水平,今年的供需將更加平衡。從長遠來看,太陽能作為再生能源和全球成本最低的電力來源之一,將繼續成為全球能源轉型和永續發展的關鍵驅動力。

  • Looking ahead, Daqo new energy will capitalize on the long-term growth in the global solar PV market and strengthen its competitive edge by enhancing its higher efficiency and type-tech technology and optimizing its cost structure through digital transformation and AI adoption. As one of the world's lowest cost producers with the highest quality products, a strong balance sheet, and no financial debt, we believe we're well positioned to weather the current market downturn and emerge as one of the leaders in industry to capture future growth.

    展望未來,大全新能源將利用全球太陽能光電市場的長期成長,透過提高效率和類型技術以及透過數位轉型和人工智慧應用優化成本結構來增強競爭優勢。作為世界上成本最低、產品品質最高、資產負債表強勁且沒有金融債務的生產商之一,我們相信我們完全有能力度過當前的市場低迷時期,並成為行業領導者之一,抓住未來的成長機會。

  • So now I will turn the call to our CFO, Mr. Ming, who will discuss the company's financial performance.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的財務長明先生,他將討論公司的財務表現。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Anita, and hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will first go over the company's fourth quarter 2024 financial performance then follow with our four year 2024 financial results.

    謝謝你,安妮塔,大家好。我是大全新能源財務長楊明。感謝您今天參加我們的收益電話會議。我將首先介紹公司 2024 年第四季的財務業績,然後介紹我們 2024 年四年的財務業績。

  • Revenues were $195.4 million compared to $198.5 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $476.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The decreasing revenue compared to the third quarter of 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in ASP mitigated by an increasing sales bonds. Gross loss was $65.3 million compared to $60.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 and gross profit of $87.2 million in the fourth quarter of '23.

    營收為 1.954 億美元,而 2024 年第三季為 1.985 億美元,2023 年第四季為 4.763 億美元。與 2024 年第三季相比,收入下降主要是由於平均銷售價格下降,但銷售債券增加。毛虧損為 6,530 萬美元,而 2024 年第三季為 6,060 萬美元,2023 年第四季為 8,720 萬美元。

  • Gross margin was negative 33% compared to negative 30.5% in the third quarter of 2024 and 18.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The decrease in growth margin compared to the third quarter of 2024 was mainly due to the decrease in average selling prices. So in general and administrative expenses were $29.4 million compared to $37.7 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $39 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    毛利率為負 33%,而 2024 年第三季為負 30.5%,2023 年第四季為 18.3%。與2024年第三季相比,成長利潤率的下降主要是由於平均售價下降。因此,一般及行政開支為 2,940 萬美元,而 2024 年第三季為 3,770 萬美元,2023 年第四季為 3,900 萬美元。

  • SG&A expenses during the fourth quarter of 2024 included $14.9 million in non-cash share-based compensation expense compared to the company related to the company's share incentive plan, compared to $18.9 million in the third quarter of 2024. The company recognized $18.1 million in non-cash expense related to allowance for ex expected credit loss of receivables in the fourth quarter, mainly due to uncertainty on the recoverability of long aged receivables.

    2024 年第四季的銷售、一般及行政費用包括與公司股權激勵計畫相關的 1,490 萬美元非現金股權激勵費用,而 2024 年第三季為 1,890 萬美元。該公司第四季度確認了與應收帳款預期信用損失準備金相關的1810萬美元非現金支出,這主要是由於長期應收帳款的可回收性存在不確定性。

  • The company recognized $175.6 million in six as impairment loss, mainly related to its older polysilicon production lines in the fourth quarter of 2023, due to the continuous down trend in the polysilicon selling prices that impaired the recoverability of carrying amounts of these assets.

    該公司六季確認了1.756億美元的減損損失,主要與2023年第四季其較舊的多晶矽生產線有關,原因是多晶矽銷售價格的持續下降趨勢損害了這些資產帳面價值的可回收性。

  • R&D expenses were $0.4 million compared to $0.8 million in the third quarter of $0.24 million and $3.3 million in 2023. R&D expenses replace R&D activities that take place during the quarter and can vary from period to period. As a result of the above mentioned loss from operations was $300.9 million compared to $98 million in the third quarter of 2024 and income from operations of $83.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    研發費用為 40 萬美元,而第三季為 80 萬美元,2023 年為 330 萬美元。研發費用取代了季度內發生的研發活動,並且可能因時期而異。上述結果導致營業虧損為 3.009 億美元,而 2024 年第三季的營業虧損為 9,800 萬美元,2023 年第四季的營業收入為 8,330 萬美元。

  • Operating margin was 154% compared to 49% in the third quarter of 0.24% and 17.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Net loss attributable to new energy shareholders was $180 million compared to $60 million in the third quarter of 2024 and net income of $53.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Last per basic ADS was $2.71 compared to $0.92 in the third quarter of 2024, and income per ADS of $0.76 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    營業利益率為 154%,而 2023 年第三季為 49%,第四季為 17.5%。歸屬於新能源股東的淨虧損為 1.8 億美元,而 2024 年第三季為 6,000 萬美元,2023 年第四季淨收入為 5,330 萬美元。上一季每份基本美國存託憑證收益為 2.71 美元,而 2024 年第三季為 0.92 美元,2023 年第四季每份美國存託憑證收益為 0.76 美元。

  • But just the net loss as to the shareholders excluding non-cash share based compensation cost was $170.6 million compared to $39.4 million in the third quarter of 2024 and just the net income of $74 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted loss for basic ADS was $2.56 compared to $0.59 in the third quarter of 2024, and adjusted earnings per basic ADS of $1.06 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    但僅扣除非現金股權激勵成本的股東淨虧損就達到 1.706 億美元,而 2024 年第三季為 3,940 萬美元,2023 年第四季的淨收入為 7,400 萬美元。基本 ADS 調整後虧損為 2.56 美元,而 2024 年第三季為 0.59 美元,2023 年第四季基本 ADS 調整後每股收益為 1.06 美元。

  • If the Daqo was [$236.5 million, $236 million] compared to negative $34 million in the third quarter of 2024 and $128.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. If that margin was 121% compared to negative 17% in the third quarter of 2024 and 26.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

    若大全的利潤為[2.365億美元,2.36億美元],而2024年第三季為負3,400萬美元,2023年第四季為1.282億美元。若該利潤率為 121%,而 2024 年第三季為負 17%,2023 年第四季為 26.9%。

  • Now I will go over the company's full year 2024 financial results. Revenues for $1.03 billion compared to $2.3 billion in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to lower policy than average selling prices and further compounded by lower sales volumes. Gross loss was 200 and $12.9 million compared to gross profit of $920.7 million in 2023. Gross margin was negative 20.7% compared to 339.9% in 2023.

    現在我將回顧公司2024年全年的財務表現。營收為 10.3 億美元,而 2023 年為 23 億美元。下降的主要原因是政策價格低於平均銷售價格,且銷售量下降。毛虧損為 2 億美元,而 2023 年的毛利為 9.207 億美元。毛利率為負 20.7%,而 2023 年為 339.9%。

  • The decrease in gross profit was primarily due to lower ASP $0.5 million in 2023. SG&A expenses were $143.1 million compared to $213.2 million in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the reduction in non-cash share based compensation costs related to the company's sharing incentive plan which was$ 72.4 million and $121 million in 2024 and 2023 respectively. The company recognized $175.6 million in fixed asset impairment laws, mainly related to its older policy facilities in 2024.

    毛利的下降主要是因為 2023 年平均售價下降 50 萬美元。銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.431 億美元,而 2023 年為 2.132 億美元。下降的主要原因是與公司股權激勵計畫相關的非現金股權薪酬成本減少,2024 年和 2023 年分別為 7,240 萬美元和 1.21 億美元。該公司確認了 1.756 億美元的固定資產減損法律,主要與其 2024 年的舊保單設施有關。

  • R&D expenses were $4.6 million compared to $10.1 million in 2023 and as a result of the foregoing loss from operations were $564 million compared to income from operations of $783.4 million in 2023. Operating margin was negative 54.8% compared to 33.9% in 2023. Net interest income was $29.4 million compared to $52.3 million in 2023.

    研發費用為 460 萬美元,而 2023 年為 1,010 萬美元,由於上述營業損失為 5.64 億美元,而 2023 年的營業收入為 7.834 億美元。營業利益率為負 54.8%,而 2023 年為 33.9%。淨利息收入為 2,940 萬美元,而 2023 年為 5,230 萬美元。

  • The decreasing interest income was primarily due to lower cash and bank balance as well as lower bank interest rate. Net loss attributable to new energy shareholders was $345 million compared to net income of $429.5 million in 2023. Loss for basic ADS for $5.22 compared to earnings per basic ADS of $5.75 in 2023. I just the net loss over the Daqo shareholders was $272.8 million compared to $563 million in 2023.

    利息收入減少主要是由於現金及銀行存款減少及銀行利率下降所致。歸屬於新能源股東的淨虧損為 3.45 億美元,而 2023 年的淨收入為 4.295 億美元。基本 ADS 虧損為 5.22 美元,而 2023 年基本 ADS 收益為 5.75 美元。我只是認為大全股東的淨虧損為 2.728 億美元,而 2023 年為 5.63 億美元。

  • Added loss for basic ADS was $4.12 compared to adjuster earnings for basic ADS of some dollars lower $0.64. EBITDA was $338 million compared to $918.6 million in 2023. EBITDA margin was negative 32.9% compared to 39.8% in 2023. Now on the company's financial conditions December 31, 2024, the company has $1.038 billion in cash equivalent and cash compared to $853.4 million September 30, 2024.

    基本 ADS 的增加損失為 4.12 美元,而基本 ADS 的調整後收益則低了 0.64 美元。 EBITDA 為 3.38 億美元,而 2023 年為 9.186 億美元。EBITDA 利潤率為負 32.9%,而 2023 年為 39.8%。現在就該公司 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財務狀況而言,該公司擁有 10.38 億美元的現金等價物和現金,而 2024 年 9 月 30 日為 8.534 億美元。

  • And $3.05 billion as of December 31, 2023 and as of December 31, 2024, the no receivable balance was $55.2 million compared to $84.5 million as of September 30, 24 and $116.4 million as of December 31, 2023.

    截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日為 30.5 億美元,截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,無應收帳款餘額為 5,520 萬美元,而截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日為 8,450 萬美元,截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日為 1.31.164 億美元。

  • Notes receivable balance represent banknotes with maturity within six months. And as of December 31, 2024, the balance of fixed term deposits within one year was $1.087 billion compared to $1.215 billion as of September 30, 2024 and no as of December 31, 2023.

    應收票據餘額為六個月內到期的銀行票據。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日,一年內定期存款餘額為 10.87 億美元,而截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日為 12.15 億美元,截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日為零。

  • Now on the company's cash flow for the 12 months ended December 31, 2024, net cash used by op Activities was for $37.7 million compared to $1.6 billion provided by operating activities in the same period of 2023. The decrease of primarily due to lower revenue and growth margin for the 12 months ended December 30, 2024.

    現在,就公司截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 12 個月的現金流而言,經營活動所用的淨現金為 3,770 萬美元,而 2023 年同期經營活動提供的淨現金為 16 億美元。減少的主要原因是截至 2024 年 12 月 30 日的 12 個月的收入和成長幅度較低。

  • Net cash investing activities was $1.478 billion compared to $1.196 billion in the same period of 2023. The net cash using investing activities in 2024 was primarily related to capital expenditure on the company 5A and 5B possible expansion projects. In Baotou city, Inner Mongolia, and purchases of short-term investments and fixed term deposits.

    淨現金投資活動為 14.78 億美元,而 2023 年同期為 11.96 億美元。2024 年投資活動所用淨現金主要與公司 5A 和 5B 可能擴大項目的資本支出有關。在內蒙古包頭市,購買短期投資和定期存款。

  • For the 12 months ending December 31, 2024, net cash using financing activities was $47.4 million compared to $795 million in the same period of 2023. Financial activities in '24 was to $35.8 million. in dividend payments made by the company's subsidiary Xinjiang Daqo's to its minority shareholders.

    截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 12 個月,融資活動淨現金流為 4,740 萬美元,而 2023 年同期為 7.95 億美元。24 年的金融活動達 3,580 萬美元。該公司子公司新疆大全向少數股東派發股利。

  • And that concludes our preferred remarks. We will now open the call to Q&A from the audience.

    這就是我們想要表達的評論。我們現在開始觀眾問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • The first question today comes from Alan Hon, JP Morgan.

    今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Alan Hon。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for letting me to ask the questions. I have like three questions here. The first question is, I would like to know, the reason for the, how is the cash spent in fourth quarter last year. On my tally, it seems like we have, spent around $0.2 billion, cash in fourth quarter. We'd like to have a feeling of the breakdown.

    你好,謝謝你讓我問問題。我這裡有三個問題。第一個問題是,我想知道,原因是什麼,去年第四季的現金支出狀況如何。根據我的統計,我們似乎在第四季度花費了約 2 億美元現金。我們想體驗一下崩潰的感覺。

  • My second question is, I would like to hear managing spot on, the pricing, outlook in the next two quarters. And the number three question is, I mean like there's been like very news talking about potential policy intervention to suppress the industry capacity of like the cyber reform. I would like to hear thought on this.

    我的第二個問題是,我想聽聽管理層對未來兩季的定價和前景的看法。第三個問題是,有許多新聞談論潛在的政策幹預,以抑製網路改革等行業的能力。我想聽聽對此的看法。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • So, I hold on, we're going to, look at the numbers really quick.

    所以,我堅持住,我們將快速看一下這些數字。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Oh, thank you.

    噢,謝謝。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Okay, Alan, thank you for your questions. Maybe I'll talk about the pricing outlook first before then answer your first question. So I think if in the short run we are likely to see probably prices to increase in the next couple of months at least before the end of the second quarter of 2025.

    好的,艾倫,謝謝你的提問。也許我會先談論定價前景,然後再回答您的第一個問題。因此我認為,從短期來看,我們可能會看到價格在未來幾個月內上漲,至少在 2025 年第二季末之前。

  • Like I talked about in the commentary section, during the fourth quarter of 2024, the industry has initiated several discussions on self-regulation that would potentially cap the overall production volume. So right now the overall industry utilization rate is roughly around 50% across all.

    正如我在評論部分所提到的,在 2024 年第四季度,該行業已經發起了幾次關於自我監管的討論,這可能會限制整體產量。目前整個產業的整體利用率約為 50% 左右。

  • And as a result, based on industry statistics, we have seen domestic poly supply to drop starting from December. So in December, the overall production volume is around 1,004,000 metric tons, and in January, it has even lower to 97,000 tons.

    因此,根據行業統計數據,我們發現國內多晶矽供應量從 12 月開始下降。因此,12月份的總產量約為1,004,000公噸,而1月份的總產量甚至更低,為97,000噸。

  • And while wafer supply in January is only about 45 gigawatts, which is roughly equivalent, or I should say supply is, slightly lower than the demand. So we expect supply to be in the range of 90 to 100K at least until May. Primarily driven by the seasonality effect of hydroelectricity power which will be relatively high during the low rain season up until May.

    而1月的晶圓供應量只有45吉瓦左右,大致相當,或者應該說供應量略低於需求量。因此,我們預計至少到 5 月份供應量將維持在 9 萬至 10 萬的範圍內。主要受水力發電的季節性影響,在 5 月之前的淡雨季節,水力發電量相對較高。

  • And as of last week, the domestic industry inventory in the poly sector is around 250,000 tons and also about 200,000 at the end or wafer manufacturers level. So we believe the poly inventory will remain high throughout 2025, but was reduced gradually in the next few months, leading to a potential poly price upside in the second quarter. And another catalyst to mention for price uptake is the new regulations that have been talked about, the market reform which would lead to potential front loading. So in the first quarter, the NDRC and also the National Energy Administration actually released new policies on distribution solar installations and also on the renewable power care.

    截至上週,國內多晶矽產業庫存約 25 萬噸,矽片製造商庫存約 20 萬噸。因此,我們認為,2025 年全年多晶矽庫存將保持高位,但未來幾個月將逐漸減少,導致第二季多晶矽價格可能上漲。另一個值得一提的價格上漲催化劑是人們討論過的新法規,即可能導致前期投入的市場改革。因此,在第一季度,國家發展委員會和國家能源局實際上發布了有關分散式太陽能裝置和再生能源保護的新政策。

  • So we would see a distributed solar. The regulations to take effect on May 1st and also the market based on pricing to be implemented for all new renewable projects starting from June. So we expect to see some potential front loading, especially because they're this imposs uncertainty toy of new projects starting from June 1st. So as we see higher, therefore we expect to see higher visibility.

    因此我們將看到分散式太陽能。該規定將於5月1日生效,並從6月起對所有新的再生能源項目實施基於定價的市場化政策。因此,我們預計會看到一些潛在的前期投入,特別是因為它們是從 6 月 1 日開始的新項目的不可能的不確定性玩具。因此,我們看到的越高,我們期望看到的可見度也就越高。

  • And our industry inventory and potential uptake in price across the value chain at least in the first half of 2025. But demand in the second half of 2025 and onwards appears to be somewhat more challenging if there are not enough new application scenarios or alternative business models when you ask them to determine the new solar project returns. So, in the midterm to the more longer term. We think that the overall industry utilization would remain around 40% to 50%, especially as the corporates are confined to the self-regulation measures.

    至少在 2025 年上半年,我們的產業庫存和整個價值鏈的潛在價格上漲。但當你要求他們確定新的太陽能專案回報時,如果沒有足夠的新應用場景或替代商業模式,那麼2025年下半年及以後的需求似乎會更具挑戰性。因此,從中期到長期來看。我們認為,整體產業利用率將維持在 40% 至 50% 左右,尤其是在企業受到自我監管措施限制的情況下。

  • To maintain or to promote a more healthy development of the industry, so price would likely linger in the range of 40 to 45 R&D burn type and more clear turning point and then.

    為了維持或促進行業更健康的發展,因此價格可能會在40至45的範圍內徘徊,然後出現更明確的轉折點。

  • I hope that answer.

    我希望得到這個答案。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Oh, so you say 45 to 50, for any type is your expectation for the more midterm.

    哦,所以你說 45 到 50,對於任何類型來說都是你對期中考的期望。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • So up until I would say the end, the second half or until the end of this year.

    所以我想說直到年底、下半年或直到今年年底。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Got it. Yeah. So, the next question is on the supply side reform and also like the cash consumption in fourth quarter.

    知道了。是的。那麼,下一個問題是關於供給面改革以及第四季度的現金消費。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, I think if you look at cash on consumption, right, so I think about roughly $80 million is related to operations or spend on the operations and then roughly $40 million is related to the CapEx. And then the remaining is mainly related to changes in The balance sheet items between operating assets and operating liability. So these are the main ones.

    好的,我認為如果你看一下消費現金,那麼我認為大約 8000 萬美元與營運有關或用於營運的支出,然後大約 4000 萬美元與資本支出有關。其餘主要與經營資產和經營負債之間的資產負債表項目變動有關。這些就是主要的。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. And the last question I have is, would like to hear your thoughts on how the government may conduct ay time reform in our industry.

    知道了。謝謝。我的最後一個問題是,想聽聽您對政府如何對我們的行業進行改革的看法。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. I think from our understanding is right now the National Energy Administration and in partnership with the Ministry of Industry and Technology and The National Development and Reform commission, I think combined, they're looking at how to stem the losses within in the industry. I think previously they were looking at how would the self, discipline framework would work and I believe thus far there.

    好的。我認為,據我們了解,目前國家能源局正在與工業和科技部以及國家發展和改革委員會合作,研究如何遏制產業內部的損失。我認為他們之前一直在研究自我、紀律框架如何發揮作用,我相信到目前為止他們已經做到了這一點。

  • Not too pleased with it in terms of the results. So it looks like it might be likely that they might come forth with a certain type of policy. We don't know what that policy looks like yet. I mean, it might be some combination of, capping, some kind of production quota.

    就結果而言,我不太滿意。因此看起來他們很可能會推出某種政策。我們還不知道該政策是什麼樣的。我的意思是,它可能是某種限制、某種生產配額的組合。

  • And I think retiring, inefficient capacity or older technology and things like that. So I think we are yet to see what the policy looks like. I believe that's still being discussed and being informed, but it might look like some of their a former policies related to this, for example, what had happened in Alumna.

    我認為是退役、低效產能或老舊技術等等。所以我認為我們還沒有看到政策是什麼樣子。我相信這仍在討論和告知中,但它可能看起來像是他們以前的一些與此相關的政策,例如,在 Alumna 發生的事情。

  • Alan Hon - Analyst

    Alan Hon - Analyst

  • Got it. And thank you very much for answering my questions and I'll pass it on.

    知道了。非常感謝您回答我的問題,我會轉達您的意見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Philip Shen, ROTH Capital.

    下一個問題來自羅仕證券的沈飛躍。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • There seems to be some issues with Philip's line. The next question comes from Meng Wan Wang, Goldman Sachs.

    菲利普的台詞似乎存在一些問題。下一個問題來自高盛的孟晚舟。

  • Meng Wan Wang - Analyst

    Meng Wan Wang - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. So my first question is about the turning point you mentioned. So, as Anita said, that you expect poly price hike is likely to suspend until end of the second quarter. So what's the exact turning point we are looking for in order to raise our production? And if it will be great if you can elaborate more on the basis that we come to our production target. Is it the so-called production quota assigned to us or it's simply because we are more bearish on the demand outlook?

    感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於您提到的轉折點。因此,正如 Anita 所說,您預計聚合物價格上漲可能會暫停到第二季末。那麼,為了提高產量,我們正在尋找的確切轉折點是什麼?如果您能在我們達到生產目標的基礎上進行更詳細的說明,那就太好了。這是所謂的分配給我們的生產配額嗎,還是只是因為我們對需求前景更加悲觀?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Oh sure, thank you. So for your first question, it's very difficult for us to estimate the exact timing of the turning point, because in 2024, if we look at the broader picture, the total production volume actually reaches $1.8 million metric tons, and the nameplate capacity of every sector on the main value chain has reached on average over 1,200 gigawatts.

    哦,當然了,謝謝。因此,對於您的第一個問題,我們很難估計轉折點的確切時間,因為到 2024 年,如果我們從更廣泛的角度來看,總產量實際上達到了 180 萬公噸,並且主要價值鏈上每個部門的額定容量平均已達到 1,200 吉瓦以上。

  • So for Poly, the nameplate production capacity of all completed projects regardless of whether it has been, temporarily shut down or never start initial production actually exceeded 1,400 gigawatts which is roughly $2.2 million metric tons. That's more than double of demand. And if we look at the outlook for 2025 based on industry forecasts, we see that global demand would actually be in the range of five to 600 gigawatts and from that we expect China's solar installation to be in the range of 250 gigawatts to 300 gigawatts, which would be roughly equivalent to $1.4 million to $1.3 million, metric tons of poly demand.

    因此,對於保利來說,所有已完成專案的額定產能(無論是否已關閉、暫時關閉或從未啟動初始生產)實際上都超過了 1,400 千兆瓦,約 220 萬公噸。這是需求的兩倍多。如果我們根據產業預測來展望2025年的前景,我們會發現全球需求實際上將在500至600千兆瓦之間,而我們預計中國的太陽能安裝量將在250至300千兆瓦之間,這大約相當於價值140萬至130萬美元的多晶矽需求。

  • So if we take these numbers into consideration, it's not difficult to see that it will be a somewhat more prolonged cycle to rebalance the current overcapacity or oversupply in the entire industry. So we would either need to see a stronger demand or a more rapid balancing in terms of supply.

    因此,如果我們考慮到這些數字,就不難看出,重新平衡整個產業目前的產能過剩或供應過剩將是一個更長的週期。因此,我們要么需要看到更強勁的需求,要么需要看到供應方面更快速的平衡。

  • In terms of our production targets, we have decided to maintain a relatively low utilization rate on the backdrop of abiding to the self-regulation measures that has been led by the CPIA as well as considering our own strategic, own strategy to cap or taper in 2025.

    就我們的生產目標而言,我們決定在遵守國家政策和改進局 (CPIA) 主導的自我監管措施以及考慮我們自己的策略、在 2025 年限製或縮減產量的背景下,保持相對較低的利用率。

  • Meng Wan Wang - Analyst

    Meng Wan Wang - Analyst

  • Sure, thanks for that. So, just to follow up, what's the current utilization rate in our Xinjiang and in the Mongolia capacity, and since we plan to maintain the utilization rate at a low level for the whole year, will we consider to shut down our Xinjiang base, or because, the Inner Mongolia, base alone is more than enough, right, to meet the production target?

    當然,謝謝。那麼,只是想問一下,我們新疆和蒙古的產能目前的利用率是多少,由於我們計劃全年將利用率維持在較低水平,我們是否會考慮關閉新疆基地,或者因為僅內蒙古基地就足以達到生產目標,對吧?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • We have decided to open both our Xinjiang and our Inner Mongolia. These are all strategies, of course, because we also have to take into account our employees in both facilities as well as our obligation for in order to fulfill our social responsibility to the community. But I guess you're correct in terms of further lowering our utilization rate, but that will be contingent upon.

    我們決定開放新疆和內蒙古。當然,這些都是策略,因為我們還必須考慮到我們兩個工廠的員工以及我們履行對社區的社會責任的義務。但我想您在進一步降低我們的利用率方面是正確的,但這取決於。

  • If demand is worse than we expected, then we might consider to further our utilization range but also considering, we need to see the balance between cost cost and a number of factors before.

    如果需求比我們預期的要差,那麼我們可能會考慮進一步擴大我們的利用率範圍,但同時也要考慮到,我們需要先看到成本和許多因素之間的平衡。

  • Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

    Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

  • Sure, that's very clear.

    當然,這非常清楚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital.

    下一個問題來自羅仕證券的 Philip Shen。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Thanks. So, the audio was a little bit unclear for me earlier, so apologies if some of these questions have been asked, as a follow up to the first questionnaire on the supply side reform, I heard your answer that there could be some kind of policy put in place, but you don't know what it looks like yet. Do you have a sense of the timing of when. The policy could be released. Is it soon or is it maybe much later in the year?

    謝謝。所以,我之前的音頻有點不清楚,所以如果有人問到這些問題,請見諒,作為對供給側改革第一個問卷的後續,我聽到你的回答是可能會出台某種政策,但你還不知道它會是什麼樣子。您是否知道具體時間?該政策可能會發布。是很快還是可能要到今年晚些時候?

  • Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Obviously, it's uncertain with regard to timing of the policy, China will have, it's high-level central government committee meeting coming up in early March. We believe from what we heard it could be around that time that. Because that's the time when the government announces a lot of their policy, for example, economic policy.

    顯然,該政策的實施時間尚不確定,中國將於 3 月初召開中央政府高層委員會會議。從我們所聽到的消息來看,我們相信時間可能就在那個時候。因為那是政府宣布許多政策的時候,例如經濟政策。

  • And government policy, so that's one possible timeline in in early March or it could be later. We don't know yet, yeah, but we all we know is that they are in discussion and that they are coordinating.

    以及政府政策,所以這可能是三月初的時間表,也可能是更晚。是的,我們還不知道,但我們所知道的是,他們正在討論,正在協調。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Great, and, so, and they would release, the supply side framework for not just Poly, right, but also every step.

    太好了,所以,他們會發布不僅僅是 Poly 的供應方框架,而且是每一步的供應方框架。

  • Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • In the supply chain. Yeah.

    在供應鏈中。是的。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, great, thanks. And then, from a pricing standpoint, I may have missed this, but can you share what kind of pricing you expect for Q1? Should it be similar to Q4? And then do you expect, poly pricing to adjust, slightly higher as we get into the back half of 2025. What's the cadence of, price for polysilicon Q1 through four?

    好的,太好了,謝謝。然後,從定價的角度來看,我可能忽略了這一點,但您能否分享一下您對第一季的定價預期?它應該與Q4類似嗎?那麼,您是否預計到 2025 年下半年,聚合物價格會進行調整,略微上漲?第一季至第四季多晶矽價格的走勢如何?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Thank you, Phill. So like I was. So in the beginning of the Q&A session, we believe that in the near term poly prices will somewhat pick up slightly so in type will be more on the higher range of the RMB40 to RMB45. But going to the second half of the quarter because we're likely to see some front loading before June 1st driven by the renewable power tariff reform and the new policies Installation.

    謝謝你,菲爾。就像我一樣。因此,在問答環節開始時,我們認為短期內聚酯價格將略有回升,價格將更多地處於 40 元至 45 元人民幣的較高範圍內。但進入本季下半段,我們可能會看到在 6 月 1 日之前受到再生能源電價改革和新政策安裝推動的一些前期負載。

  • Due to the uncertain yield of new projects. The only certainty is to get installed before, so we believe that we might see a stronger demand in the first half compared to the second half, and hence overall in the second half of the year, price for N type would be in the range of 40 to 45, maybe more on the lower end and 37 to [40]

    由於新項目收益不確定。唯一確定的是提前安裝,因此我們認為上半年的需求可能會比下半年更強勁,因此總體而言,下半年 N 型電池的價格將在 40 到 45 之間,低端價格可能更高,而 37 到[40]

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, and you know it was a little bit hard to hear you. Can you speak closer to the microphone? Did you say in the first half it's 40 to 45 and then the back half might be 37 to something, yeah, that's much better?

    好的,你知道,聽到你的聲音有點困難。你能靠近麥克風說話嗎?您是否說前半部是 40 到 45,而後半部可能是 37 到某個數字,是的,這好多了?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • So I would say in the first half, it's more on the higher range of 45, but in the second half would be more on the lower range.

    所以我想說,在前半部分,它更傾向於 45 的較高範圍,但在後半部分,它更傾向於較低範圍。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, got it and you're much clearer now.

    好的,明白了,現在你清楚多了。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Okay, and time will be around 37 to 40, but of course that would also be contingent upon whether there will be additional supply coming out after May.

    好的,時間大約在 37 到 40 之間,但當然這也取決於 5 月之後是否會有額外的供應。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Meaning more production from other players.

    意味著其他玩家的產出將會增加。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Yeah, especially because we're going to the rain season, so the hydro electricity power tariff would drop significantly compared to where it is right now.

    是的,特別是因為我們即將進入雨季,所以水電電價將比現在大幅下降。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay, thank you. Yeah, it's much clearer now.

    知道了。好的,謝謝。是的,現在清楚多了。

  • So we have a sense for pricing now. We've talked about supply side reform. What about on the demand side, we've seen some changes recently to, the feeding tariff outlook and that's going away? And with the low growth in China, there seems to be based on some of my industry sources, there could be an upside surprise to demand.

    所以我們現在對定價有了一定的了解。我們講了供給面改革。那麼在需求方面,我們最近看到飼料關稅前景發生了一些變化,而且這種變化正在消失?而且,根據我的一些業內消息來源,由於中國經濟成長緩慢,需求可能會出現意外的上行。

  • Are you seeing that yet with the potential for that? And if so, how do you expect that to play out through the year?

    您是否已經看到了這種可能性?如果是的話,您預計今年會如何發展?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • So I talked about previously, we think that based on industry forecasts, we have also seen global demand to be in the range of 550 gigawatts to 600 gigawatts, and from that we expect China solar installation to be in the range of 250 gigawatts to 300 gigawatts. And that would be relatively stable in terms of year-over-year growth compared to 277 gigawatts in 2024, primarily because we think the inflation of utility scale has peaked in the short run.

    我之前說過,我們認為根據產業預測,全球需求將在 550 吉瓦至 600 吉瓦之間,而我們預計中國的太陽能安裝量將在 250 吉瓦至 300 吉瓦之間。與 2024 年的 277 吉瓦相比,這一同比增長相對穩定,主要是因為我們認為公用事業規模的通膨在短期內已經達到頂峰。

  • We would need to see a more structural reform either in the grid system or a frequency modulation control to optimize the system such as the development of energy storage before demand can further boost and for distributed installations, we think that the market-oriented reform poses the biggest uncertainty to the yield of new projects and hence the pace of installation was somewhat slow down after June fourth.

    我們需要看到電網系統進行更結構性的改革,或者透過調頻控制來優化系統,例如開發儲能,然後需求才能進一步提升,對於分散式安裝,我們認為市場化改革對新項目的收益率構成了最大的不確定性,因此六四之後安裝速度有所放緩。

  • Before we see more transparency on the regulation, of course, because although it has been released by NDRC and the NEA for the new regulation, they actually delegated the specific details to provincial levels. So we will need to see from that level, what the local government, what the specific plans will look like from the provincial levels before the end of 2025.

    當然,我們需要等到法規更加透明之後才能看到,因為儘管國家發展委員會和國家能源局已經發布了新法規,但他們實際上將具體細節下放給了省級部門。因此,我們需要從這個層面觀察,2025年底前地方政府、省政府的具體計畫是什麼樣的。

  • And we think that besides the Chinese market, international demand will primarily come from emerging markets. So for instance, like Latin America, Middle East, Africa, etc. Because they have the big potential for renewable energy due to the rapid growth in electricity demand. So for instance, Saudi Arabia's school is to have renewable account for 50% of energy composition by 2030. So they plan to have a newly installed 20 gigawatts of solar from 2024 onwards.

    我們認為,除了中國市場之外,國際需求主要來自新興市場。例如拉丁美洲、中東、非洲等,由於電力需求快速成長,這些地區具有巨大的再生能源潛力。例如,到 2030 年,沙烏地阿拉伯的學校再生能源將佔能源組成的 50%。因此他們計劃從 2024 年開始新安裝 20 千兆瓦的太陽能。

  • And, beside the emerging markets, we think that for the US will be somewhat stagnant, primarily because after Trump has been elected, he has signed several executive orders, for instance, delaying or suspended the IRA subsidy and also halting the exiting the Paris Agreement. So we think that in the US, the renewable energy would be pivoted towards supporting the fossil fuel industry.

    而除了新興市場之外,我們認為美國經濟將會有些停滯,主要是因為川普當選後,簽署了幾項行政命令,例如延後或暫停IRA補貼,以及暫停退出《巴黎協定》。因此我們認為,在美國,再生能源將轉向支持化石燃料產業。

  • Philip Shen - Analyst

    Philip Shen - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you for the color and I'll pass it on.

    好的,謝謝你的顏色,我會把它傳遞下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Johnson Wan, Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Johnson Wan。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. So I would like to come to some of the details in the financials. So actually the cash cost of the production in four has lower to almost RMB35 per kilogram. I would like to know if there's any further room to come down and the reason of that because is it Because there was some impairment in costs which brings down the costs or this RMB35 per kilogram actually fairly reflects the cash cost of the company?

    多謝。所以我想談談財務方面的一些細節。因此實際上四年生產的現金成本已經降到每公斤近35元人民幣。我想知道是否還有進一步下降的空間,原因是什麼?是因為成本減損降低了成本,還是每公斤 35 元人民幣實際上公平地反映了公司的現金成本?

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • I would say that the current RMB35 per kilogram is reflective of the company's current cash cost. I think cash cost reduction come from a number of points including, a better manufacturing efficiency and then cost savings on on material procurement, but in particular, right, like us reduce production, I think now the productions are, primarily focused in our in our most efficient manufacturing facility both in Xinjiang and in Mongolia. So these have a lower electricity usage for you know production, for example.

    我想說,目前每公斤35元人民幣的價格反映了公司目前的現金成本。我認為現金成本的降低來自多個方面,包括提高製造效率,然後在材料採購上節省成本,但特別是像我們減少產量,我認為現在的生產主要集中在我們最高效的製造工廠,即新疆和蒙古。因此,例如,在生產過程中,這些設備的用電量較低。

  • So I think that's why we so of the tax cost reduction. I think right now I'll look, for tier one is cash cost should remain at the current level or maybe just slightly lower but not too much lower.

    所以我認為這就是我們如此降低稅收成本的原因。我認為現在我會看,第一層現金成本應該保持在當前水平,或者可能略低一些,但不會低太多。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • That's our current expectation. I see that's clear. And another question, so yeah, I think similar to Q4 maybe just slightly lower than.

    這是我們目前的期望。我看這很清楚。還有一個問題,是的,我認為與第四季度類似,可能略低一些。

  • I see, another question is in regards to FDR because one of the major peers has also got around 10,000 tons of kind of pilot lines, got the environmental approvals, so I would like to listen on your views on the technology and would you also explore into certain lines for FDR and what's your view on the cost of RMB28?

    我明白了,另一個問題是關於 FDR 的,因為其中一個主要同行也擁有約 10,000 噸的試驗生產線,並獲得了環境批准,所以我想聽聽您對該技術的看法,您是否也會探索 FDR 的某些生產線,您對 280 萬元人民幣的成本有何看法?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • So first of all, it's hard for us to comment on our competitors' cash cost, but I could give more color on our own strategy, of course. So I think that we definitely respect innovation and industry, but modify Siemens process has been refined over decades and has delivered proven cost efficiency, scalability, and high quality silicon, which is critical to meeting our customer specifications. And we have also consistently worked toward further lowering our cost through technology improvements such as lowering our energy consumption or silicon powder consumption, etc.

    首先,我們很難評論競爭對手的現金成本,但我當然可以更闡述我們自己的策略。因此,我認為我們絕對尊重創新和工業,但西門子工藝經過數十年的改進,已經實現了經過驗證的成本效益、可擴展性和高品質的矽,這對於滿足客戶的規格要求至關重要。而我們也一直致力於透過技術改進來進一步降低成本,例如降低能耗或矽粉消耗等。

  • So we can position competitively in this cyclical market and we definitely acknowledge the clear advantage of SDR, which would be lower energy consumption and I guess hence lower cost, which makes it easier to get relevant carbon footprint certifications in the future.

    因此,我們可以在這個週期性市場中佔據競爭優勢,我們也確實承認 SDR 的明顯優勢,即更低的能源消耗,因此成本也更低,這使得未來更容易獲得相關的碳足跡認證。

  • But we still believe that FDR has its inherent risks such as, its purity challenges. It's still not possible to use a 100% FDR in downstream production. So there is a maximum blend percentage when you are trying to to produce in the downstream sectors. There's also a challenge associated with hydrogen displacement during the deposition process and also hydrogen retention leading to potential defects or degraded risks. And also the process in stability caused by things like the reactor clogging, maybe the uneven silicon deposition can also lead to increased downtime.

    但我們仍然認為 FDR 有其固有的風險,例如其純度挑戰。在下游生產中仍然不可能使用 100% FDR。因此,當您嘗試在下游行業生產時,存在最大混合百分比。沉積過程中還存在與氫置換相關的挑戰,以及氫保留導致潛在缺陷或降級風險的問題。此外,反應器堵塞、矽沉積不均勻等因素也會影響製程穩定性,進而增加停機時間。

  • But that being said, we are not complacent, so our R&D team and I would like to highlight that we also established our research center in Inner Mongolia last quarter in 2024, which will continue to evaluate all innovations. And maybe more on the emerging technologies that could potentially be transformative in the future, including the FDR in order to assess the long-term viability of different technologies. And I think, I believe that should there be other technologies or FDR that demonstrates clear sustainable.

    但話雖如此,我們並不自滿,因此我和我的研發團隊想強調的是,我們還在 2024 年最後一個季度在內蒙古建立了研究中心,該中心將繼續評估所有創新。也許還會更關注未來可能帶來變革的新興技術,包括 FDR,以評估不同技術的長期可行性。我認為,我相信應該有其他技術或 FDR 能夠證明其明顯的可持續性。

  • Advantages without compromising, the product quality, we will consider, the different process as well, but for now, our strategy remains centered on leveraging our existing strengths, so our operational excellence, our customer trust, and also our financial strength to navigate this market dynamics amid this market down cycle.

    在不損害產品品質的情況下,我們會考慮不同的工藝,但目前,我們的策略仍然集中在利用我們現有的優勢,因此我們的卓越營運、我們的客戶信任以及我們的財務實力,以在市場下行週期中應對這種市場動態。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • And thanks a lot for the details. So basically there's no concrete plans in pursuing FBI for now, right?

    非常感謝您提供的詳細資訊。所以基本上目前沒有追究 FBI 的具體計劃,對嗎?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • There's no concrete plans, but we are also doing our research, of course. We are keeping an eye on all sorts of technologies that could be potentially transformative in the future.

    沒有具體的計劃,但我們當然也在做研究。我們正在關注未來可能帶來改變的各種技術。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • Understood. So, another question is I recall there was $100 million buyback announced last year. I wonder if when the company thinks it would be appropriate to start the buyback and is there any consideration in selling down your Asia platform as well in order to fund the buyback in the US platform?

    明白了。所以,另一個問題是我記得去年宣布了 1 億美元的回購。我想知道公司何時認為開始回購是合適的,是否考慮出售亞洲平台以便為美國平台的回購提供資金?

  • Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Xiang Xu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • So I think for the $100 million share buyback, we are still keeping an eye and closely monitoring the market dynamics. I think like we mentioned before, we were more concerned. And waiting to see when a turning point would emerge, but I think based on the recent news and our assessment of the market environment, we would like to we are still closely monitoring when would be a good timing to start repurchasing, but for selling down our A shares and potentially buying back on the US ADRs to close down this GAAP in terms of the huge differences in evaluation.

    因此我認為,對於 1 億美元的股票回購,我們仍在密切關注並監控市場動態。我想就像我們之前提到的那樣,我們更加擔心。並等待看何時會出現轉折點,但我認為根據最近的消息和我們對市場環境的評估,我們仍將密切關注何時是開始回購的好時機,但為了賣出我們的 A 股並可能回購美國 ADR,以消除這種 GAAP 方面的巨大評估差異。

  • It's we have definitely considered such plans. However, after the new regulation rolled out on selling down on 8 shares, which was announced in May last year, should your share price be trading below your issue price, which would be 21.49%, it's somewhat more difficult to pursue such plans, which is why we announced to extend our volunteers are selling down backing, our lockup, yes, in January.

    我們確實考慮過這樣的計劃。然而,自去年 5 月出台 8 股減持新規以來,如果股價低於發行價(即 21.49%),那麼執行減持計劃就會困難一些,因此我們在 1 月份宣布延長志願者減持支持期限,也就是我們的禁售期。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • I see. So, but I think from an industry perspective, you would still like to see, there's a turning point before you commit for the buyback, Right?

    我懂了。所以,但我認為從行業角度來看,您仍然希望看到,在承諾回購之前有一個轉折點,對嗎?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Yes, because I think this cycle would somewhat be prolonged as our competitors are also have Strength in terms of stronger I guess shareholder backgrounds and also we haven't heard things like the calling back the loan so I think it's still early stage right now, but we're definitely keeping an eye and monitoring the market dynamics and decide when would be the good timing to start with.

    是的,因為我認為這個週期會有所延長,因為我們的競爭對手在股東背景方面也有實力,而且我們還沒有聽到諸如收回貸款之類的事情,所以我認為現在還處於早期階段,但我們肯定會密切關注並監測市場動態,並決定何時是開始的好時機。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • And my last question is about the 2025 production guidance. It appears to be less than 50% of utilization rate if you think about the capacity of the company is close to 300,000 and seems slightly lower than the numbers in the after the December. CPIA meeting.

    我的最後一個問題是關於 2025 年的生產指導。如果考慮到該公司的產能接近 30 萬,那麼利用率似乎不到 50%,似乎比 12 月之後的數字略低。CPIA 會議。

  • So we would like to know if it is coherent with the supply side self-discipline initiative because there's a lower estimated demand in one so. So progress is lower in one Q, but like is this basically the number you have in the self-discipline agreement?

    因此,我們想知道它是否與供應方自律措施一致,因為其中估計的需求較低。因此,在一個問題中進度較低,但這基本上就是自律協議中的數字嗎?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • I think from the self-discipline measures they basically, overall they would have a quota for the company based on your past shipping volume as well as your nameplate capacity as of now, and that's more like a maximum cap of the level of production that you can produce for the entire year. We haven't heard anything such as punishment associated with producing lower than the quota, and we have actually made our target for 2025 based on our own company strategy while complying to the self-regulation measures.

    我認為從自律措施來看,他們基本上會根據公司過去的運輸量以及目前的銘牌產能為公司設定一個配額,這更像是公司全年生產水平的最高上限。我們還沒有聽說任何有關生產低於配額的懲罰之類的事情,而且我們實際上已經根據我們自己的公司戰略,在遵守自我監管措施的同時制定了2025年的目標。

  • I think our primary goal in 2025 is to maintain a level that would meet our customer demand while capping or reducing our cash for an entire year.

    我認為我們 2025 年的主要目標是保持滿足客戶需求的水平,同時限製或減少全年的現金。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • So basically, it's like it it could I say that if the demand. There's a possibility to further increase a bit on the production if the demand really beats expectation.

    所以基本上,如果有需求的話我可以這麼說。如果需求確實超出預期,則有可能進一步增加產量。

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Yes, that's the guidance as we assess the market conditions right now, but there is a possibility of potentially increasing our utilization rates should the market demand become stronger than we expect.

    是的,這是我們評估當前市場狀況的指導,但如果市場需求比我們預期的強勁,我們有可能提高利用率。

  • Johnson Wan - Analyst

    Johnson Wan - Analyst

  • That's very clear. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

    這非常清楚。非常感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the Yufei Miao, CICC.

    下一個問題來自中金公司的苗宇飛。

  • Yufei Miao - Analyst

    Yufei Miao - Analyst

  • Thanks management. This is Yufei from CICC. My first question is whether we participate in poly futures trading now and how the planning on it. And my second question is, what's the current inventory level of company?

    謝謝管理層。我是中金公司的餘飛。我第一個問題是我們現在是否參與保利期貨交易,以及對此的規劃如何。我的第二個問題是,公司目前的庫存水準是多少?

  • Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

    Anita Zhu - Deputy CEO

  • Thank you. I'll answer the first question and then answer the second question. So in terms of the futures market, in the fourth quarter last year, we've already registered a label for the futures market and obtained relevant approvals, so we are among the first batch of manufacturers to be able to participate in the futures market.

    謝謝。我先回答第一個問題,然後再回答第二個問題。那麼在期貨市場方面,我們在去年第四季就已經註冊了期貨市場的標籤,並且獲得了相關的批准,所以我們是第一批可以參與期貨市場的廠商之一。

  • But, after the futures market comes online in December last year. The registered brands, generally quoted above RMB45, but the listing price was relatively low at 38.6% when it just opened. So I would say it's more of a capital gain right now and the main contract which is the June 25, has an average daily trading volume of about 10,000 lots, which is not a lot. So the overall market pool is still relatively small right now. And as a trading at around 43 to 44.5, I believe it has not yet met our expectations.

    但是,自去年12月期貨市場上線以來。註冊品牌,報價普遍在45元以上,但開業時掛牌價相對較低,為38.6%。所以我想說現在這更多的是一種資本收益,而 6 月 25 日的主要合約的日均交易量約為 10,000 手,這並不多。因此,目前整體市場規模仍相對較小。而由於交易價格在 43 至 44.5 左右,我認為它尚未達到我們的預期。

  • And I would say the willingness for us to participate is still relatively weak at the moment and in fact, I believe for other players, I think right now it's more preferable to transact with futures merchants to indirectly exploit the the hedging opportunities, but that being said, we're definitely monitoring the progress of the market and waiting to see a more detailed guidelines on how to participate. And see whether it would be a good strategy that fits our overall company strategy to take advantage of the future hedging.

    我想說,目前我們參與的意願仍然相對較弱,事實上,我相信對於其他參與者來說,我認為現在更傾向於與期貨商進行交易,以間接利用對沖機會,但話雖如此,我們肯定會監測市場的進展,並等待有關如何參與的更詳細指南。看看這是否是一個適合我們整體公司策略、利用未來對沖的良好策略。

  • Yufei Miao - Analyst

    Yufei Miao - Analyst

  • Sure. Thanks.

    當然。謝謝。

  • Okay, go ahead.

    好的,請繼續。

  • Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

    Ming Yang - Chief Financial Officer

  • The current sellable inventory for policy for the company is less than 20,000 metric tons per month and there is a decline of close to 10,000 metric tons compared to the end of last quarter. So this is improving rapidly, I would say it's continuing to come down as well.

    目前公司可售政策庫存每月不到2萬噸,較上季末下降近1萬噸。所以這種情況正在迅速改善,我想說它也在繼續下降。

  • Yufei Miao - Analyst

    Yufei Miao - Analyst

  • Sure. That's all my questions. Thanks.

    當然。這就是我所有的問題。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給管理階層,請他們發表結束語。

  • Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

    Jessie Zhou - Market & Sales Director

  • Thank you everyone. Again for participating in this conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

    謝謝大家。再次感謝您參加本次電話會議。如果您還有其他問題,請隨時與我們聯絡。謝謝您,祝您有美好的一天。再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。