陶氏化學 (DOW) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) This webcast and posted on our website. I'm Andrew Riker, Dow's Investor Relations Vice President. Leading today's call are Karen S. Carter, Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Tate, Chief Financial Officer.

(音訊進行中) 本次網路直播並已張貼於我們的網站。我是 Andrew Riker，陶氏投資人關係副總裁。今天的電話會議由執行長 Karen S. Carter 與財務長 Jeff Tate 主持。

Please note, our comments contain forward-looking statements and are subject to the related cautionary statement contained in the earnings news release and slides. Please refer to our public filings for further information about principal risks and uncertainties. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable, exclude significant items.

請注意，我們的評論包含前瞻性陳述，並受制於財報新聞稿與簡報中所載之相關警示性聲明。請參閱我們的公開申報文件，以取得有關主要風險與不確定性的進一步資訊。除非另有說明，所有財務數據（如適用）均排除重大項目。

We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in the earnings news release that is posted on our website.

我們也將提及非 GAAP 衡量指標。與其最直接可比之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表及其他相關揭露，載於已張貼於我們網站的財報新聞稿中。

On slide 2 is our agenda for today. Karen and Jeff will begin with a review of our third-quarter performance and the progress we're making to our self-help actions. We'll cover the near-term operating environment and fourth quarter outlook as well as details about how our priorities are building a more competitive Dow. Throughout the discussion, you'll hear a consistent theme. We're acting decisively on levers we control to strengthen earnings, cash generation and long-term value creation.

投影片 2 為我們今天的議程。Karen 與 Jeff 將先回顧第三季表現，以及我們在自助措施（self-help actions）上的推進進度。我們將說明短期營運環境與第四季展望，並提供我們的優先事項如何打造更具競爭力的陶氏之細節。在整段討論中，您將聽到一致的主題。我們正果斷運用我們可控的槓桿，以強化獲利、現金創造能力與長期價值創造。

And as always, we'll ensure ample time near the end for your questions.

一如往常，我們也會在接近尾聲時保留充足時間回答各位的提問。

With that, let me turn it over to Karen starting on slide 3.

接下來，我把時間交給 Karen，從投影片 3 開始。

Thank you, Andrew. Our solid third quarter performance reflects the discipline and focus of Team Dow as we build a stronger company while navigating a dynamic market environment. We continue to partner with customers in attractive growth markets while also improving productivity and strengthening cash generation. And our collective self-help measures, which include the completion of our $1 billion 2025 cost savings program, the beginning of our previously announced European asset shutdowns and our transformation are all delivering tangible results. In the third quarter, that execution translated into meaningful progress and strong performance in many areas of our portfolio.

謝謝你，Andrew。我們第三季穩健的表現，反映出陶氏團隊在面對多變的市場環境時，仍以紀律與專注打造更強健公司的成果。我們持續與具吸引力成長市場的客戶合作，同時提升生產力並強化現金創造能力。而我們整體的自助措施，包括完成 2025 年 10 億美元成本節省計畫、啟動先前宣布的歐洲資產關停，以及我們的轉型行動，都正在帶來具體成果。在第三季，這些執行轉化為顯著進展，並在我們投資組合的多個領域展現強勁表現。

Net sales were up 13% year over year, with growth in every operating segment. Operating EBITDA was more than $1.5 billion as pricing actions and self-help measures more than offset higher raw material and logistics costs to drive year-over-year growth. Together, our actions and the results they are delivering help reinforce Dow's earnings power. They strengthen our financial position while also enabling us to build a more competitive company for the long term.

淨銷售額年增 13%，各營運事業部門皆有成長。營運 EBITDA 超過 15 億美元，定價行動與自助措施的效益，足以抵銷較高的原料與物流成本，帶動年對年成長。我們的行動以及其所帶來的成果，共同強化了市場對陶氏獲利能力的信心。這些成果強化了我們的財務狀況，同時也使我們得以為長期打造更具競爭力的公司。

Transform to Outperform continues to deliver benefits ahead of our initial schedule, and we remain on track to achieve approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year. We also completed significant planned maintenance during the third quarter which will support stronger production and earnings performance heading into the fourth quarter and beyond. And we are optimizing our working capital and actively prioritizing debt reduction with excess cash. This reinforces our continued focus on financial discipline and operational execution.

「轉型以超越」（Transform to Outperform）持續在原先時程之前帶來效益，我們仍按計畫在今年達成約 7 億美元的成長與生產力改善。我們也在第三季完成了重要的計畫性維修保養，這將支撐我們在第四季及其後更強的產量與獲利表現。此外，我們正優化營運資金，並以多餘現金積極優先降低負債。這再次凸顯我們對財務紀律與營運執行的持續聚焦。

Next, turning to the portfolio, let me highlight the greatest areas of strength. First, in the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, we're maintaining higher pricing for polyethylene and functional polymers in all regions, and we delivered sequential volume gains. In the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment, increased demand for energy applications and AI infrastructure is supporting improved pricing and margins.

接下來談到投資組合，我先強調最具優勢的領域。首先，在包裝與特用塑膠（Packaging and Specialty Plastics）事業部門，我們在所有地區維持聚乙烯與功能性聚合物的較高價格，並實現了季對季的銷量成長。在工業中間體與基礎建設（Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure）事業部門，能源應用與 AI 基礎設施需求增加，支撐了更佳的定價與利潤率。

And we are seeing growth in the Performance Materials and Coatings segment, driven by consumer electronics and home care applications. This quarter, we also saw volume gains in Europe as well as in Latin America and the United States and Canada, all while the macro conditions remained dynamic.

同時，我們也看到高性能材料與塗料（Performance Materials and Coatings）事業部門的成長，主要由消費性電子與居家清潔應用所帶動。本季在歐洲，以及拉丁美洲與美國和加拿大，我們也都看到銷量提升，即便總體環境仍然多變。

Moving forward, our focus remains on improving shareholder returns through self-help actions, better cash generation and a stronger balance sheet.

展望未來，我們仍將聚焦透過自助措施、更佳的現金創造能力以及更強健的資產負債表，來提升股東報酬。

With that, Jeff will share a more granular look at the quarter and our near-term outlook.

接下來，Jeff 將更細緻地說明本季表現與我們的短期展望。

Thank you, Karen. Starting with our Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment on slide 4. Net sales were $5.8 billion, up 18% versus the year ago period. Operating EBIT was approximately $585 million, which represents an increase of more than $385 million compared with the same period last year. This was primarily driven by higher polyethylene prices, improved integrated margins and benefit from our self-help initiatives. The Packaging and Specialty Plastics business delivered higher net sales driven by polyethylene and functional polymer price gains in all regions.

謝謝你，Karen。先從投影片 4 的包裝與特用塑膠事業部門開始。淨銷售額為 58 億美元，較去年同期成長 18%。營運 EBIT 約為 5.85 億美元，較去年同期增加超過 3.85 億美元。這主要受較高的聚乙烯價格、整合利差改善，以及自助措施帶來的效益所驅動。包裝與特用塑膠業務的淨銷售額上升，主要來自所有地區聚乙烯與功能性聚合物的價格上漲。

Polyethylene prices rebounded in the second half of the quarter, supported by elevated feedstock costs and demand remained resilient as evidenced by year-over-year volume growth, excluding supply constraints related to the Middle East conflict. Polyethylene volumes were notably strong in pipe applications, led by gains in infrastructure-related applications in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India.

聚乙烯價格在本季後半段回升，受原料成本走高所支撐；需求仍具韌性，從年對年銷量成長可見一斑（不含與中東衝突相關的供應限制）。聚乙烯銷量在管材應用特別強勁，主要由歐洲、中東、非洲與印度等地區的基礎建設相關應用成長所帶動。

Higher net sales in the Hydrocarbons and Energy business were driven by increased pricing. We also saw increased olefins volumes after restarting our lowest cost, most flexible cracker intrnusin, following an idling due to planned maintenance. As a result of having this asset back online, we delivered record LPG consumption in Europe in the third quarter, capitalizing on feedstock dynamics.

碳氫化合物與能源（Hydrocarbons and Energy）業務的淨銷售額增加，主要由價格上升所帶動。在完成計畫性維修而停工後，我們重啟了成本最低、彈性最高的裂解裝置 intrnusin，因此也看到烯烴銷量增加。由於該資產恢復上線，我們在第三季於歐洲創下 LPG 消耗量新高，把握原料動態所帶來的機會。

Next, I'll turn to slide 5, which outlines the strong year-over-year earnings improvement in our Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment. Net sales were $3.1 billion, up 8% versus the year ago period, driven by a 16% increase in local price. This reflects gains across both businesses and all regions. Operating EBIT improved to $176 million, reflecting an increase of $223 million versus the same quarter last year. This was driven by higher margins and benefits from our self-help initiatives.

接著請看投影片 5，說明我們工業中間體與基礎建設事業部門年對年獲利的強勁改善。淨銷售額為 31 億美元，較去年同期成長 8%，主要由當地價格上漲 16% 所帶動。這反映兩項業務及所有地區皆有成長。營運 EBIT 改善至 1.76 億美元，較去年同季增加 2.23 億美元。這主要由較高的利潤率以及自助措施帶來的效益所驅動。

Polyurethanes and Construction Chemicals recorded higher sales, driven by stronger pricing in MDI and propylene oxide derivatives across Europe and the United States and Canada, reflecting constrained supply dynamics in the period. Additionally, volume and EBITDA growth in Industrial Solutions was fueled by robust demand for AI infrastructure and energy applications where favorable trends continue to support the segment's momentum.

聚氨酯與建築化學品（Polyurethanes and Construction Chemicals）銷售額增加，主要受歐洲以及美國和加拿大地區 MDI 與環氧丙烷衍生物定價走強所帶動，反映該期間供應受限的態勢。此外，工業解決方案（Industrial Solutions）的銷量與 EBITDA 成長，來自 AI 基礎設施與能源應用的強勁需求；有利趨勢持續支撐該事業部門的動能。

Moving to Performance Materials and Coatings on slide 6, we saw solid top line and EBITDA growth in the third quarter. Net sales were $2.3 billion, up 8% versus the same quarter last year. This included volume improvements in both businesses, which was led by downstream silicones. Operating EBIT was $154 million. The team delivered both price and volume gains as well as benefits from our self-help initiatives, including cost savings associated with the second-quarter shutdown of our Barry siloxane unit.

接著看投影片 6 的高性能材料與塗料事業部門，我們在第三季看到穩健的營收與 EBITDA 成長。淨銷售額為 23 億美元，較去年同季成長 8%。這包括兩項業務的銷量改善，其中以下游矽利康（silicones）為主要帶動因素。營運 EBIT 為 1.54 億美元。團隊實現價格與銷量雙成長，並受惠於自助措施，包括第二季關停 Barry 矽氧烷（siloxane）裝置所帶來的成本節省。

Consumer Solutions had double-digit sales and EBITDA growth in the Americas. This was largely driven by downstream silicones volume gains in all regions. And the Coatings and Performance Monomers business delivered higher sales across all regions, led by price and volume gains in both acrylic monomers and architectural coatings.

消費者解決方案（Consumer Solutions）在美洲的銷售額與 EBITDA 皆呈現兩位數成長。這主要由所有地區下游矽利康銷量增加所驅動。而塗料與高性能單體（Coatings and Performance Monomers）業務在所有地區的銷售額也提高，主要由丙烯酸單體與建築塗料在價格與銷量上的雙重成長所帶動。

So next, I'll move to slide 7. Here, we're providing a new view of how the benefits from our intentional actions are flowing through the P&L to ultimately strengthen Dow's underlying earnings power. We delivered a sequential improvement of more than $150 million in self-help benefits in the third quarter. This includes the Barry siloxane unit shutdown, cost savings actions and the growth and productivity benefits from our transformation. And while self-help is structurally improving Dow's underlying earnings base, the benefit in the third quarter were mainly offset by margin pressures, primarily in Packaging and Specialty Plastics.

接下來，我將移到第 7 張投影片。在這裡，我們提供一個新的視角，說明我們有意採取的行動所帶來的效益如何流經損益表（P&L），最終強化陶氏（Dow）核心的獲利能力。我們在第三季實現自助改善（self-help）效益較前一季提升超過 1.5 億美元。這包括英國 Barry 矽氧烷（siloxane）裝置停產、成本節省措施，以及我們轉型帶來的成長與生產力效益。雖然自助改善正從結構上提升陶氏的基礎獲利底盤，但第三季的效益主要被利潤率壓力所抵銷，壓力主要來自包裝與特用塑膠業務。

More specifically, while the situation in the Middle East drove significant second quarter price hikes and subsequent declines in July, we began to see signs of stabilization as the quarter progressed, including a price increase in September. Looking specifically at our transformation, we have already delivered approximately $450 million of year-to-date improvements, including approximately $250 million in the third quarter.

更具體而言，儘管中東局勢推動第二季價格大幅上調，並在 7 月出現後續回落，但隨著季度推進，我們開始看到穩定跡象，包括 9 月的價格上調。就我們的轉型而言，我們今年迄今已交付約 4.5 億美元的改善，其中第三季約 2.5 億美元。

Importantly, and I want to really emphasize this, everyone at Dow owns self-help. It has become a part of our everyday mindset. And we remain focused on our commitment to implement approximately $1.3 billion in net benefits this year as well as $1.3 billion in 2027. We are holding our teams accountable for maintaining this mindset, ensuring we continue to be relentless in driving growth, productivity and efficiency, all to reinforce Dow's competitive advantages while also improving our earnings and our cash position.

重要的是——我想特別強調——陶氏的每一位同仁都對自助改善負責。這已成為我們日常思維的一部分。我們仍專注於履行承諾：今年實現約 13 億美元的淨效益，以及在 2027 年同樣實現 13 億美元。我們要求各團隊對維持這種思維負責，確保我們持續以不懈的態度推動成長、生產力與效率，藉此鞏固陶氏的競爭優勢，同時改善我們的獲利與現金部位。

Next on slide 8, I'll walk through some details that support our overall view that underlying demand is steady, while the macroeconomic environment remains challenging. We continue to see resilience in packaging globally as well as electric vehicle growth in Asia and Europe.

接著看第 8 張投影片，我將說明一些細節，以支持我們的整體觀點：基本需求保持穩健，但總體經濟環境仍具挑戰。我們持續看到全球包裝需求具韌性，以及亞洲與歐洲電動車成長。

At the same time, higher interest rates and weaker consumer confidence continue to pressure demand for products tied to housing. Across regions, Dow's footprint in the Americas remains advantaged, supported by our favorable feedstock position and continued high operating rates in the U.S. Gulf Coast.

同時，較高的利率與較弱的消費者信心，持續壓抑與住宅相關產品的需求。就各區域而言，陶氏在美洲的布局仍具優勢，受惠於我們有利的原料（feedstock）條件，以及美國墨西哥灣沿岸持續維持高開工率。

In Europe, persistently high energy costs continue to challenge industry economics and broad-based petrochemical closures are accelerating. In Asia, demand remains mixed. Strength in electronics is helping offset softer consumer spending and real estate markets.

在歐洲，能源成本長期居高不下，持續對產業經濟性造成挑戰，且石化產能的全面性關閉正在加速。在亞洲，需求仍呈現分化。電子產品的強勁表現，有助於抵銷較疲弱的消費支出與房地產市場。

Lastly, in the Middle East, while all concerns have eased from levels we saw earlier this year, risk to trade flows in energy markets remain elevated, as do freight and other transportation costs, with the increased pressure on tanker and diesel prices.

最後，在中東，雖然各項疑慮已較今年稍早的水準緩解，但能源市場的貿易流向風險仍然偏高；在油輪與柴油價格壓力增加的情況下，運費及其他運輸成本也同樣維持高檔。

So against this backdrop, slide 9 provides details on our fourth quarter expectations, including both our market assumptions and the contributions we expect from the actions within our control. As we look ahead, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the market, including the situation in the Middle East that I just mentioned. Therefore, forecast in the quarter continues to be more challenging than usual. As always, we will monitor conditions closely and provide updates if external factors change meaningfully or affect our initial guidance.

在此背景下，第 9 張投影片提供我們對第四季展望的細節，包括市場假設以及我們預期由可控行動所帶來的貢獻。展望未來，市場仍存在相當多不確定性，包括我剛提到的中東局勢。因此，本季的預測仍比以往更具挑戰。一如既往，我們將密切監測情勢；若外部因素出現重大變化或對我們的初始指引造成影響，我們也會提供更新。

For the fourth quarter, we expect EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion. Recent polyethylene price gains should improve our margins. This builds on the momentum we saw late in the third quarter, and we expect those higher prices to take effect before the impact of increased raw material costs. We anticipate the seasonality that we typically see in the fourth quarter will be largely offset by more than $100 million of lower sequential turnaround spending.

對第四季而言，我們預期 EBITDA 約為 15 億美元。近期聚乙烯價格上漲應可改善我們的利潤率。這延續了我們在第三季末看到的動能，我們預期較高的售價將在原料成本上升影響顯現之前生效。我們預期第四季通常出現的季節性影響，將大致被較前一季減少超過 1 億美元的歲修（turnaround）支出所抵銷。

Additionally, we expect to deliver approximately $100 million of sequential uplift from our self-help actions, including our transformation and ongoing benefits from the closure of our Barry UK siloxane unit.

此外，我們預期自助改善行動將帶來約 1 億美元的季增提升（sequential uplift），包括我們的轉型，以及英國 Barry 矽氧烷裝置關閉所帶來的持續效益。

In Europe, we expect energy cost to remain elevated as we head into the winter months. In addition, regional supply chains and logistics are still experiencing significant disruption, including the impacts from record low water levels on the Rhine River. These supply constraints are creating additional pricing opportunities for Dow, which should help offset some of the headwinds.

在歐洲，隨著進入冬季月份，我們預期能源成本仍將維持高檔。此外，區域供應鏈與物流仍面臨顯著干擾，包括萊茵河水位創新低所帶來的影響。這些供應限制為陶氏創造了額外的定價機會，應可協助抵銷部分逆風。

Looking briefly at our expectations for each segment and Packaging and Specialty Plastics, we anticipate global polyethylene integrated margins to improve by approximately $0.02 per pound compared to the third quarter. That should offset normal year-end seasonality.

簡要看一下各事業部的展望；就包裝與特用塑膠而言，我們預期全球聚乙烯一體化利潤率（integrated margins）相較第三季每磅改善約 0.02 美元。這應可抵銷年末的正常季節性影響。

In addition, we expect lower turnaround spending and self-help to provide sequential tailwinds. In our two other segments, we anticipate a typical seasonal slowdown in building and construction activity to reduce earnings in the period. Taken together, our intentional actions help to support a roughly flat sequential outlook.

此外，我們預期較低的歲修支出與自助改善將帶來季增順風。在另外兩個事業部，我們預期建築與施工活動出現典型的季節性放緩，將使本期獲利下滑。綜合而言，我們的有意行動有助於支撐大致持平的季比展望。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Karen to talk more about our self-help and our near-term priorities.

接下來，我把電話交回給 Karen，請她進一步談談我們的自助改善以及近期優先事項。

Thanks, Jeff. Above all, our focus is on building a more competitive Dow that delivers improved long-term value. That comes down to three priorities: winning with customers in attractive growth markets, strengthening our portfolio's competitiveness, and maintaining a balanced approach to capital allocation. And importantly, our self-help commitments underpin all three.

謝謝，Jeff。最重要的是，我們的重點在於打造更具競爭力的陶氏，並帶來更佳的長期價值。這歸結為三項優先事項：在具吸引力的成長市場中與客戶共同致勝、強化我們投資組合的競爭力，以及維持資本配置的平衡作法。而且很重要的是，我們的自助改善承諾支撐著這三項優先事項。

I'll start with our progress on Transform to Outperform on slide 11, and then we'll walk through how these priorities guide our growth investments, portfolio decisions, and financial discipline. Dow's transformation is contributing significant gains as part of our overall approach to continued self-help. These efforts are effectively resetting our cost structure and establishing a more targeted approach to sustained growth. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to deliver approximately $700 million this year, which is higher than our initial projections.

我將先從第 11 張投影片的「Transform to Outperform」進展談起，接著我們會說明這些優先事項如何引導我們的成長投資、投資組合決策與財務紀律。陶氏的轉型正帶來顯著增益，作為我們持續推動自助改善整體策略的一部分。這些努力正有效重塑我們的成本結構，並建立更聚焦、可持續的成長方法。如我先前提到的，我們預期今年可交付約 7 億美元，高於我們最初的預估。

Let me highlight a few timely examples of where this work is having impact. As the way we work continues to evolve, so do our expectations for where and how work gets done. We are enabling faster decision-making and putting the right roles in the right areas of the company. This includes a reduction of approximately 4,500 Dow roles. To date, we have implemented approximately 70% of those reductions, and we expect to substantially complete this phase of the transformation by year-end.

我來強調幾個近期例子，說明這項工作正在產生的影響。隨著我們的工作方式持續演進，我們對工作在哪裡、以及如何完成的期待也在改變。我們正促成更快速的決策，並把合適的職務配置到公司內合適的領域。這包括約 4,500 個陶氏職務的縮減。截至目前，我們已完成約 70% 的縮減，並預期在年底前大致完成此階段的轉型。

At the same time, we are driving productivity improvements of approximately $150 million in benefits in the second half of this year. This includes deploying a repeatable site transformation playbook at our largest sites which remains focused on maintenance productivity, energy efficiency, and asset utilization.

同時，我們正推動生產力改善，預計在今年下半年帶來約 1.5 億美元的效益。這包括在我們最大的廠區導入可複製的廠區轉型作戰手冊（playbook），重點仍聚焦於維修生產力、能源效率與資產利用率。

For example, recent improvements at One U.S. Gulf Coast site helped a cracker achieve durable record high production, which ultimately adds low-cost capacity and strengthen supply reliability for downstream customers.

例如，美國墨西哥灣沿岸某一廠區近期的改善，協助一座裂解爐（cracker）達成可持續的歷史新高產量，最終增加低成本產能，並強化對下游客戶的供應可靠性。

On the growth side, we are establishing platforms and teams that bring Dow's technologies and expertise together around attractive end markets like AI infrastructure and mobility. By pairing Dow's materials science expertise, technical service and digital tools with customers' own innovation goals, the platforms move us from supplier to partner. This helps customers innovate better and faster while earning Dow higher value and more stable growth.

在成長方面，我們正在建立平台與團隊，將陶氏的技術與專業整合，聚焦於具吸引力的終端市場，例如 AI 基礎設施與移動出行（mobility）。透過把陶氏的材料科學專長、技術服務與數位工具，與客戶自身的創新目標相結合，這些平台讓我們從供應商轉變為合作夥伴。這有助於客戶更好、更快地創新，同時也讓陶氏獲得更高價值與更穩定的成長。

And we are using data more efficiently to ensure stronger commercial pipeline discipline. As a result, our teams have earlier visibility into customer opportunities and stronger insights, allowing us to quickly prioritize the opportunities that have higher value potential.

我們也更有效率地運用數據，以確保更強的商業管線（commercial pipeline）紀律。因此，我們的團隊能更早掌握客戶機會並獲得更深入的洞察，使我們得以迅速優先處理具有更高價值潛力的機會。

This also helps us decide sooner which opportunities not to pursue, allowing us to focus Dow's resources where we are best positioned to win. These are just a few examples and we remain committed to advancing all of our self-help measures to deliver material improvements in the near term.

這也有助於我們更早判斷哪些機會不值得追求，讓我們能將陶氏的資源聚焦在最有勝算的領域。以上只是幾個例子，我們仍致力於推進所有自助措施，以在短期內帶來具實質性的改善。

We're doing so while also executing on each of our priorities beginning with focused growth and innovation on slide 12. Dow's downstream silicones business illustrates our approach well. We are investing in applications and projects that serve fast-growing markets. Many of the incremental growth investments we have made in silicone specifically are expected to pay back in two to three years. For example, our closed loop liquid cooling systems and advanced thermal fluids are serving markets that are growing at double-digit rates.

同時，我們也在執行各項優先事項，首先是投影片12所示的聚焦成長與創新。陶氏的下游矽利康業務很好地體現了我們的方法。我們正投資於服務快速成長市場的應用與專案。我們在矽利康方面所做的許多增量成長投資，預期可在兩到三年內回收。例如，我們的閉環液冷系統與先進導熱流體正服務於以兩位數速度成長的市場。

Our technologies are helping to solve important challenges for hyperscale servers and our thermal interface materials and engineered silicones are used in semiconductor packaging and power electronics. In mobility, the opportunities for Dow are driven by a growing EV market in Europe and Asia, as well as the amount of silicone used in each vehicle.

我們的技術正在協助解決超大規模伺服器的重要挑戰，而我們的導熱介面材料與工程矽利康則用於半導體封裝與電力電子。在移動出行領域，陶氏的機會來自歐洲與亞洲電動車市場的成長，以及每輛車所使用的矽利康用量。

EVs contain approximately 3 times as much silicon as a traditional internal combustion model. And Dow materials are used in critical applications that protect cameras and sensors as well as support battery pack assembly and thermal management. When it comes to how we think about growth and innovation, the bottom line is this. Dow teams are advancing, from expanded customer development capabilities to new production capacity in key markets, and we are doing so with a clear focus on capital discipline and faster payback projects.

電動車所含的矽利康用量約為傳統內燃機車型的3倍。而陶氏材料用於保護攝影機與感測器等關鍵應用，同時也支援電池模組組裝與熱管理。談到我們如何看待成長與創新，重點如下。陶氏團隊正持續推進，從擴大客戶開發能力到在關鍵市場新增產能；我們在推動這些工作的同時，明確聚焦資本紀律與更快回收的專案。

Turning to slide 13. We're strengthening the competitiveness of Dow's portfolio by intentionally shifting our investments toward differentiated applications and advantaged production while also exiting higher-cost upstream capacity. And while this particular slide doesn't provide a completeness, I'd like to share some key examples.

接著看投影片13。我們正透過有意識地將投資轉向差異化應用與具優勢的生產，同時退出成本較高的上游產能，來強化陶氏產品組合的競爭力。雖然這張投影片未能涵蓋全部內容，但我想分享幾個關鍵例子。

First, we're improving the cost position of our manufacturing footprint. We restarted our lowest cost and most flexible cracker in Europe in the second quarter, while also completing the shutdown of our higher-cost energy-intensive Barry siloxane unit in the United Kingdom. Both actions contributed to improved third quarter earnings. At the same time, we're investing in downstream applications where our differentiation matters to customers.

首先，我們正在改善製造版圖的成本地位。我們在第二季重啟了歐洲成本最低且最具彈性的裂解裝置，同時完成關閉英國成本較高、能源密集的Barry矽氧烷裝置。這兩項行動都促成了第三季獲利改善。同時，我們也在投資下游應用，在這些領域我們的差異化對客戶至關重要。

More specifically, our Poly-7 polyethylene unit in the U.S. Gulf Coast support specialty packaging as well as health and hygiene applications where demand remains resilient. And our alkoxylation investments in the United States and Europe support growth in our Industrial Solutions business, which serves home care, pharmaceutical and energy markets.

更具體而言，我們位於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的Poly-7聚乙烯裝置支援特種包裝以及健康與衛生應用，這些領域的需求仍具韌性。而我們在美國與歐洲的烷氧基化投資，支援工業解決方案業務的成長，該業務服務於居家清潔、製藥與能源市場。

In silicones, we're expanding capabilities across the US, China and Japan to serve electronics and mobility markets including engineered silicone and silicone rubber capacity expansions. Our asset actions include both closures and prudent growth investments. Taken together, they form one integrated portfolio strategy. We have completed a number of key actions and expect to advance more through next year.

在矽利康方面，我們正擴展美國、中國與日本的能力，以服務電子與移動出行市場，包括工程矽利康與矽橡膠產能擴建。我們的資產行動同時包含關閉與審慎的成長投資。綜合而言，這些構成一套整合的產品組合策略。我們已完成多項關鍵行動，並預期在明年持續推進更多措施。

Next, Jeff will discuss our third priority, balanced capital allocation, and the actions we are taking to strengthen Dow's financial position for the long term.

接下來，Jeff將討論我們的第三項優先事項——均衡的資本配置——以及我們為強化陶氏長期財務狀況所採取的行動。

Thank you, Karen. On slide 14, our approach to financial discipline remains consistent. With a clear focus on maintaining both strength and flexibility, we are prioritizing debt reduction with excess cash while also taking actions to release working capital and maintain ample liquidity.

謝謝你，Karen。在投影片14，我們對財務紀律的做法一貫如一。在明確聚焦維持實力與彈性的前提下，我們將以多餘現金優先用於降債，同時採取行動釋放營運資金並維持充足流動性。

Let me start with the balance sheet. We have approximately $14 billion of liquidity and no substantive debt maturities until 2029, providing significant financial flexibility, and we are actively directing excess cash toward deleveraging. This year, we repurchased approximately $300 million of debt in the third quarter, with plans for an additional approximately $200 million in the fourth quarter.

我先從資產負債表談起。我們約有140億美元的流動性，且直到2029年之前沒有重大的到期債務，這提供了顯著的財務彈性；我們也正積極將多餘現金用於去槓桿。今年第三季我們回購了約3億美元的債務，並計畫在第四季再回購約2億美元。

Together with the March 2027, Eurobond maturity, these combined actions are expected to retire approximately $1.4 billion of debt. And as Karen mentioned at the top of the call, we are making prudent operating trade-offs to improve working capital and have already released more than $400 million of cash in the third quarter, keeping us on track for a more than $500 million cash release in the second half of this year.

再加上2027年3月到期的歐元債，這些合併行動預期將償還約14億美元的債務。此外，如Karen在電話會議一開始提到的，我們正做出審慎的營運取捨以改善營運資金，且第三季已釋放超過4億美元現金，使我們有望在今年下半年達成超過5億美元的現金釋放目標。

As we close out the year, our focus will remain on continuing to strengthen our balance sheet. We have consistently taken decisive and prudent actions to preserve Dow's financial flexibility, and we'll continue to do so through every phase of the cycle.

在年底收官之際，我們的重點仍將是持續強化資產負債表。我們一向採取果斷且審慎的行動，以維持陶氏的財務彈性，並將在景氣循環的每個階段持續如此。

With that, Karen will share some closing remarks before we open the call for questions.

接下來，Karen將在我們開放提問前做一些結語。

Thanks, Jeff. Slide 15 brings these priorities back together, to show how we are building a more competitive now that is positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders, our customers and our people. We continue to operate through a dynamic period. The geopolitical and macro conditions remain volatile and demand signals are mixed. This is not unique to Dow.

謝謝，Jeff。投影片15將這些優先事項整合在一起，展示我們如何打造一個更具競爭力的「當下」，並具備為股東、客戶與員工創造長期價值的定位。我們仍在一個動態的時期中營運。地緣政治與總體環境依然波動，需求訊號也好壞參半。這並非陶氏獨有。

Through focused growth and innovation, we are directing capital and resources toward fast-growing markets and stronger commercial execution in areas where we can sharpen our competitive edge and solve more with our customers. And we are making our portfolio more competitive by investing in advantaged businesses, differentiated technologies and low-cost assets while also moving decisively where we no longer have a clear path to sustainably compete and win.

透過聚焦成長與創新，我們正將資本與資源導向快速成長的市場，並在我們能強化競爭優勢、與客戶共同解決更多問題的領域，提升商業執行力。同時，我們也透過投資於具優勢的業務、差異化技術與低成本資產來提升產品組合競爭力；並在我們不再有明確可持續競爭與勝出的路徑之處，果斷採取行動。

Our focus areas around capital allocation are straightforward, strengthen the balance sheet, improve cash flow and preserve financial flexibility so that we can act as conditions and opportunities evolve. These priorities, backed by the expertise and execution of Team Dow are how we will build a stronger, more competitive company today and over the long term.

我們在資本配置方面的聚焦領域很明確：強化資產負債表、改善現金流，並保留財務彈性，以便在環境與機會演變時能夠採取行動。在陶氏團隊的專業與執行力支持下，這些優先事項將使我們在今天以及長期打造一家更強大、更具競爭力的公司。

So now we will use the rest of the time we have today to address your questions. Andrew, please get us started.

接下來，我們將利用今天剩餘的時間回覆各位的問題。Andrew，請先開始。

Thank you, Karen. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝你，Karen。現在我們進入提問環節。提醒各位，我們的前瞻性陳述同時適用於事先準備的講稿以及接下來的問答。接線員，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

(接線員說明) Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Advisors。

A two-part question on polyethylene pricing. If I heard you guys correctly, you're talking about a $0.02 a pound sequential margin improvement sort of embedded in your Q4 guidance. I mean it seems there have been a series of price hikes for October as well as November.

關於聚乙烯定價的兩部分問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，你們在第四季指引中似乎隱含了每磅0.02美元的序列性利差改善。我的意思是，看起來10月以及11月都有一連串的漲價。

So the first part of the question is, why are you guys only factoring in a $0.02 a pound margin improvement? And then as you look at 2027, how sustainable are the current sort of higher prices, particularly sort of in a scenario where the Middle East normalizes, let's assume sort of more Chinese capacity comes online as well?

所以第一個問題是，為什麼你們只納入每磅0.02美元的利差改善？另外，展望2027年，目前這種較高價格的可持續性如何？特別是在中東局勢趨於正常化、並假設也有更多中國產能投產的情境下？

Thanks, Hassan, for the question. Good to hear from you. Let me talk about the $0.02 per pound global integrated margin improvement first. So that assumes that the September price increases average throughout the quarter. And you're absolutely right.

謝謝你，Hassan，謝謝你的提問。很高興聽到你的聲音。我先談談每磅0.02美元的全球一體化利差改善。這是假設9月的漲價在整個季度平均反映。而你說得完全沒錯。

We have additional nominations on the table, and we believe that the market dynamics that we're currently facing, we'll get those into the books. I mean you think about the higher feedstocks. So I'm not just talking about oil, but naphtha, we're seeing ethane a bit on the rise as well. And so if we're able to achieve the $0.07 that you have on the table for October and the $0.05 in November, that will provide an upside to our fourth quarter guide, I mean and that's going to also depend on how far the feedstock costs rise. And so -- if we are able to get all of that get additional margin, think about that upside in the range of $200 million. So $0.01 per pound price increase is about $50 million per quarter.

我們還有額外的提名（nomination）正在推進，我們相信在目前所面臨的市場動態下，我們會把這些反映到合約／帳冊中。我的意思是，你想想更高的原料成本。所以我不只是指原油，還包括石腦油；我們也看到乙烷也有些上升。因此，如果我們能夠達成你們桌面上所列的10月每磅0.07美元，以及11月每磅0.05美元，那將為我們第四季指引帶來上行空間；當然這也取決於原料成本上升到什麼程度。因此——如果我們能把這些都做到、取得額外的利潤率，請把這個上行想成大約2億美元的區間。所以每磅價格每上調0.01美元，大約相當於每季5,000萬美元。

Let me to the second part of your question, and then Jeff, if you have any other comments that you want to make. Listen, we are planning to end the year with momentum. We came out of the third quarter with momentum. We think about September getting the $0.05, but also ACC data. DDI declined by more than five days.

我先回答你問題的第二部分，然後Jeff，如果你還有其他想補充的。聽著，我們的規劃是以動能結束今年。我們在第三季結束時就帶著動能。我們想到9月拿到每磅0.05美元的調價，但也包括ACC的數據。DDI下降了超過五天。

Inventory declined by over 400 million pounds. China is back in the market. And so from a Dow perspective, our sales grew double digits from a polyethylene perspective as we ended third quarter, we're getting more growth in the fourth quarter as well. Spot prices are also on the rise. So we expect that we're going to end the fourth quarter with momentum going into 2027.

庫存下降了超過4億磅。中國回到市場。因此，從Dow的角度來看，隨著第三季結束，我們在聚乙烯方面的銷售成長達到兩位數，而第四季也會有更多成長。現貨價格也在上升。所以我們預期第四季結束時將帶著動能進入2027年。

And that's also why our guide in fourth quarter is flat with the first quarter. So it's not just about how the ethylene price and dynamics, but the story is also about our self-help. So the reason that we have a guide of flat to third quarter is because lower turnarounds but also our self-help is going to offset the typical seasonality that we see. So we should go into 2027 with that momentum. And we expect from an oil-to-gas ratio that it will remain constructive. And of course, we're going to continue to double down on our advantaged feed capacity here in North America.

這也是為什麼我們第四季的指引與第一季持平。所以不只是乙烯價格與供需動態的問題，這個故事也關乎我們的自助（self-help）措施。因此，我們給出與第三季持平的指引，是因為歲修（turnarounds）較少，同時我們的自助措施將抵消我們通常看到的季節性影響。所以我們應該會帶著這股動能進入2027年。而且我們預期從油轉氣比（oil-to-gas ratio）的角度來看，仍將維持有利。當然，我們也會持續加碼在北美具優勢的原料供應產能。

Jeff, anything else you want to say about 2027?

Jeff，關於2027年你還有什麼想補充的嗎？

Yeah. Hassan, the only other thing that I would add to 2027 is the fact that our self-help actions will be a key tailwind going into the new year. You heard in my prepared remarks, our expectation is that our tailwind purely on self-help will deliver about $1.3 billion in 2027. So that will be something that we can control as Team Dow that will be part of our bottom line value generation going from 2026 to 2027.

有的。Hassan，我對2027年唯一想再補充的是，我們的自助行動將會是進入新年度的一個關鍵順風。你在我事先準備的發言中也聽到了，我們的預期是，單就自助帶來的順風，2027年大約可貢獻13億美元。所以這將是我們Dow團隊可控的事項之一，並將成為我們從2026年到2027年推動損益表價值創造的一部分。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

Vincent Andrews，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to follow up on the feedstock cost side of the equation. Karen, you did mention ethane's had a bit of a move to propane and butane in the US. I wonder if you could just sort of some characterization around that move, what you think is causing it? And how durable is it versus slightly lower move up in natural gas prices? And just what in particular do you have baked in for the fourth quarter?

我想追問一下原料成本這一端的情況。Karen，你確實提到在美國乙烷相對丙烷與丁烷有一些變動。我想請你大致描述一下這個變動，你認為是什麼原因造成的？以及相較於天然氣價格小幅上升，這個變動的持續性如何？另外，第四季你們具體納入（baked in）的假設是什麼？

Vincent, thanks for the question. So you're right, US ethane prices have moved higher in recent weeks, and it's actually outpacing natural gas. That's driven by a few factors. First of all, growing exports. You've got that new cracker capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast preparing to start up. That's another reason. But also, you're seeing that international crackers are leaning more heavily on ethane in their mix given elevated oil prices.

Vincent，謝謝你的問題。你說得沒錯，美國乙烷價格在最近幾週走高，而且實際上漲幅超過天然氣。這是由幾個因素驅動的。首先，是出口增加。另外，美國墨西哥灣沿岸有新的裂解爐（cracker）產能正準備啟動。這也是另一個原因。同時，由於油價偏高，你也看到國際裂解爐在其原料組合中更倚重乙烷。

But I do want to highlight that even with that, current levels really do remain materially below the peaks that we saw back in 2022, and also it's roughly in line with five-year averages. So the market here remains really well supplied. You're seeing US production of 3.3 million barrels per day, and that's a record, and inventories also still remain above historical norms. So our guide -- our fourth quarter guide contemplates that ethane will be in the mid- to high $0.20 per gallon range. So that's marginally lower than where we sit today.

但我也想強調，即便如此，目前水準仍明顯低於我們在2022年看到的高峰，而且大致與五年平均相當。所以這裡的市場供應仍然非常充足。你看到美國產量為每日330萬桶，這是創紀錄的，而庫存也仍高於歷史常態。因此，我們的指引——我們第四季指引假設乙烷價格將落在每加侖0.20多美元的中段到高段區間。所以這比我們今天所在的水準略低一些。

Maybe just a rule of thumb, every $0.03 per gallon of ethane translates to about $0.01 per pound of polyethylene price needed to cover that cost. And as you heard on my last answer, we have much larger price increases on the table for fourth quarter. So that's the $0.07 per pound in October and the $0.05 per pound in November.

也許給一個經驗法則：乙烷每加侖每變動0.03美元，大約就需要聚乙烯價格每磅上調0.01美元來覆蓋該成本。而如同你在我上一個回答中聽到的，我們第四季桌面上的調價幅度要大得多。也就是10月每磅0.07美元，以及11月每磅0.05美元。

Maybe just another important point is global polyethylene prices, of course, are set by at-base production. And so with oil and naphtha still elevated, that oil-to-gas spread is going to remain constructive, and it continues to sit well above prior year averages. So that makes, of course, ethane, the lowest in the world. and that's where the majority of our capacity sits. So it's an advantage for Dow.

另外一個重要點是，全球聚乙烯價格當然是由邊際（at-base）生產成本所決定。因此，在原油與石腦油仍然偏高的情況下，油轉氣價差將維持有利，而且仍明顯高於前一年的平均水準。所以這使得乙烷當然成為全球成本最低的原料。而我們的大部分產能就位於這個成本優勢區域。因此這對Dow而言是一項優勢。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

Patrick Cunningham，花旗。

Just on free cash flow, very strong results in 3Q. But can you help us with expectations for conversion into 2027, particularly if we have expectations for higher or longer PE margins? I'm trying to get a sense of some of the trade-offs you've made on working capital this year. And any incremental restructuring expense you expect to incur next year?

關於自由現金流，第三季表現非常強勁。但你能否協助我們理解轉換到2027年的預期，特別是在我們預期聚乙烯（PE）利潤率更高或維持更久的情境下？我想掌握你們今年在營運資金上做的一些取捨。以及你們預期明年會產生的任何額外重組費用？

Good morning, Patrick. This is Jeff. I appreciate the question. So a couple of comments I would make there. First of all, the third-quarter free cash flow performance, $1.1 billion was I think that the team did an excellent job of really focusing on working capital discipline for one. And this is one of the things that we did signal even coming out of our second quarter call that our anticipation around working capital is going to see a significant swing.

早安，Patrick。我是Jeff。謝謝你的問題。我這裡有幾點評論。首先，第三季自由現金流表現達11億美元，我認為團隊在聚焦營運資金紀律方面做得非常出色，這是其中一點。而這也是我們在第二季電話會議後就已經釋出的訊號之一：我們預期營運資金將出現顯著的擺動。

So the sequential improvement that we saw from second quarter to third quarter, purely on working capital was about $1.3 billion. So a really strong tailwind there from quarter-to-quarter. One of the things that we did make the commitment on in the second half of the year was at least a $500 million release of working capital and so to deliver over $400 million of that in the third quarter puts us in a really good position to be able to meet that target by year-end.

因此，我們看到從第二季到第三季的連續改善，單就營運資金而言約為13億美元。所以在季度之間形成了非常強的順風。我們在下半年承諾的一件事，是至少釋放5億美元的營運資金；而在第三季就實現其中超過4億美元，使我們處於非常有利的位置，能在年底前達成該目標。

As we go into 2027, as I mentioned earlier, one of the things that we're definitely looking forward to in planning is around the self-help, delivering the $1.3 billion. As we think about our cash conversion going into the next year, going to maintain that discipline around working capital, which should continue to give us a cash conversion rate that's going to be in the range of anywhere from, let's say, 70% to 80% as we go through next year, which will position us well to be able to support our capital allocation framework.

隨著我們邁入 2027 年，如我先前提到的，我們在規劃上確實非常期待的一件事，是圍繞自助措施（self-help），交付 13 億美元。當我們思考明年我們的現金轉換時，我們將維持在營運資金上的紀律，這應可持續帶給我們約 70% 到 80% 區間的現金轉換率，貫穿明年，讓我們能夠在資本配置框架上取得良好支撐。

Abigail Eberts, Wells Fargo.

Abigail Eberts，富國銀行。

Another one on polyethylene price increases. There had been talks of a split settlement because of outsized tightness for low density. Has that changed? It sounds like you're not going for that anymore.

再問一題關於聚乙烯漲價。先前曾有討論，因為低密度產品供應異常吃緊，可能會採取分拆結算（split settlement）。這有改變嗎？聽起來你們不再朝那個方向走了。

No. Thanks, Abigail. It's good to hear you on the call this morning. No, we're moving forward with all of the polymers at the same time. So again, $0.07 per pound and over and then another $0.05 in November.

沒有。謝謝你，Abigail。今天早上在電話會議上聽到你的聲音很高興。沒有，我們會同時推進所有聚合物的調價。所以同樣是每磅 0.07 美元及以上，然後 11 月再調升 0.05 美元。

Again, we're seeing spot prices go up around the world. We're also seeing spot prices go up on all of the polymers. And so that is our plan in terms of executing those price increases as we get into the fourth quarter.

同樣地，我們看到全球各地的現貨價格都在上升。我們也看到所有聚合物的現貨價格都在上升。因此，這就是我們在進入第四季時執行這些漲價的計畫。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas，摩根大通。

You're earning at a rate of about $1.5 billion a quarter, so call it $6 billion a year. So is the meaning of the incremental cost savings of $1.3 billion for next year, is that a business conditions remain the same, your EBITDA would go from $6 billion to $7.3 billion, or do you mean something else?

你們目前的獲利速度大約是每季 15 億美元，也就是一年約 60 億美元。那麼，明年新增 13 億美元的成本節省，意思是如果經營環境維持不變，你們的 EBITDA 會從 60 億美元增加到 73 億美元嗎？還是你指的是別的意思？

Thanks, Jeff, for the question. Listen, I do want to highlight that when we enter -- as we enter 2027 to your point, $1.3 billion of earnings tailwinds are going to be firmly in our control, and that's largely driven by the self-help actions, as you mentioned. So that's $1.2 billion of incremental Transform to Outperform uplift in 2027. And then about another $100 million of incremental gains from our asset actions. And that includes both the shutdown of Barry siloxane in Europe, so the additional uplift from that but then also the growing impact of our recent incremental growth investments. So that's how constellation capacity here in the US as well as in Europe and Poly-7.

謝謝你，Jeff 的提問。聽著，我確實想強調，當我們進入——如你所說，邁入 2027 年時，13 億美元的獲利順風將會牢牢掌握在我們手中，而這主要是由你提到的自助措施所驅動。因此，這其中有 12 億美元是 2027 年「Transform to Outperform」帶來的增量提升。另外大約還有 1 億美元的增量收益，來自我們的資產行動。其中包括歐洲 Barry 矽氧烷（siloxane）裝置的關停所帶來的額外提升，同時也包括我們近期新增成長投資逐步擴大的影響。也就是美國與歐洲的 constellation 產能，以及 Poly-7。

Maybe to your point, global pricing dynamics are obviously not completely in our control. But we do see factors that could provide some support in 2027. So polyethylene market dynamics have momentum going into fourth quarter, as I mentioned, higher oil baseline. Our view is that there's going to continue to be a risk premium on the price of oil going forward. And so I'm not going to call a 2027 number here.

或許就你提到的，全球定價動態顯然並非完全在我們掌控之中。但我們確實看到一些因素可能在 2027 年提供支撐。如我所提到的，聚乙烯市場動態在進入第四季時具備動能，油價基準也較高。我們的看法是，未來油價將持續存在風險溢價。因此我不會在這裡給出一個 2027 年的數字。

But what I can tell you is that we're going to continue to navigate the market with disciplined execution, and double down on our self-help that we're committed to delivering next year as an additional EBITDA uplift.

但我能告訴你的是，我們將持續以有紀律的執行來應對市場，並加倍推進我們承諾在明年交付的自助措施，作為額外的 EBITDA 提升。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

David Begleiter，德意志銀行。

Karen, you just on the $1.3 billion for '27. Can you just break down the benefit by segment? And any other tailwinds or headwinds that you would call out either maintenance higher or lower or other costs that could be impacting '27 that you know about today?

Karen，關於 2027 年的 13 億美元。你能否按事業部拆分一下效益？另外，還有沒有其他你今天已知、可能影響 2027 年的順風或逆風因素，例如維修費用更高或更低，或其他成本？

Good morning, Dave. This is Jeff. For us, right now, we're continuing to work through the $1.3 billion as we go through the Transform to Outperform again, which is the key driver of that tailwind that we anticipate from '26 to '27. One of the things that we're really, really pleased about is that it is impacting every function, every business in every geography across the enterprise.

早安，Dave。我是 Jeff。就我們而言，目前我們仍在推進這 13 億美元，隨著我們持續推動「Transform to Outperform」，它是我們預期從 2026 到 2027 年順風的關鍵驅動因素。我們非常、非常高興的一點是，它正在影響企業內每一個職能、每一個業務、以及每一個地理區域。

And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the self-help ownership and accountability is something that we have from a cultural perspective. So we have a great level of confidence in the $1.3 billion for 2027. As we get into the early part of next year, we'll have more details to share around the breakdown of that as we move forward here. But at an enterprise level, the $1.3 billion is a tailwind.

而且如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，自助措施的主人翁精神與問責，是我們在文化層面所具備的。因此，我們對 2027 年的 13 億美元非常有信心。等到明年初，我們會在推進過程中分享更多關於拆分的細節。但在企業整體層面，這 13 億美元是一股順風。

And David, maybe just to add on that. You should think about it probably in 50% in PMSP and 25% and the other two is how I would categorize it today.

David，或許再補充一下。你可以把它大致想成：50% 在 PMSP，另外兩個事業部各約 25%，我目前會這樣分類。

Matthew DeYoe, Bank of America.

Matthew DeYoe，美國銀行。

Corporate overhead looks better quarter over quarter, but quite somewhat in line year over year. One, I'm assuming some compensation accruals came back in 3Q given the big 2Q move. But I -- why isn't there more evidence of like the dramatic cost cuts moving through overhead like R&D and SG&A? And I appreciate that Dow has heritage in material science, but like -- what do you think the right absolute dollar spend is for R&D at Dow because it kind of feels like [700] is too high?

公司管理費用（corporate overhead）季比看起來更好，但年比仍大致持平。第一，我猜第三季可能有一些薪酬提列回轉，因為第二季有很大的變動。但我——為什麼在研發與銷管費（SG&A）等管理費用上，還看不到更明顯、像是大幅削減成本正在穿透的證據？我理解 Dow 在材料科學上有深厚傳承，但——你認為 Dow 研發的合理絕對金額應該是多少？因為感覺像是 [700] 太高了。

Matt, this is Jeff. I'll take that question. For us, first of all, on the overall SARD, we continue to be very pleased with the progress we're making on our start as percent of revenue versus best-in-class peers. Right now we're at 5% of revenue versus best-in-class peer median of 12%. So we're top quartile overall on our cost structure from that perspective.

Matt，我是 Jeff。我來回答這題。對我們而言，首先在整體 SARD 上，我們對於 SARD 佔營收比重相較同業最佳水準的進展仍然非常滿意。目前我們約為營收的 5%，而同業最佳水準的同儕中位數是 12%。因此，從這個角度看，我們的成本結構整體位於前四分位。

If you look at quarter over quarter, so sequentially, our SARD was actually down $130 million, excluding one-time significant items. A lot of that is reflected in our transformation savings as well as, to your point, the performance-based compensation adjustment as well.

如果看季比，也就是按序列來看，在排除一次性重大項目後，我們的 SARD 實際上減少了 1.3 億美元。其中很大一部分反映在我們的轉型節省上，另外也如你所說，還包括以績效為基礎的薪酬調整。

We expect our cost savings to continue to build through the remainder of this year as well as through 2027 as we continue to change how we're working across the operating model, that spending will be lower, not only in our SARD line items, but also in our cost of goods sold.

我們預期，隨著我們持續改變整個營運模式的工作方式，我們的成本節省將在今年剩餘時間以及一路到 2027 年持續累積；支出將會降低，不僅是在 SARD 的各項費用科目上，也會反映在銷貨成本上。

Obviously, being a manufacturing company, over 80% of the headcount savings that we expect to get from our transformation will come from not only manufacturing but those support functions such as supply chain, procurement, and about 15% of those headcount savings will actually come out of SARD, which we're starting to see reflected net-net.

顯然，作為一家製造型公司，我們預期從轉型中取得的人力節省，有超過 80% 會來自製造本身以及供應鏈、採購等支援職能；而約 15% 的人力節省將會從 SARD 中釋出，我們也開始看到其淨額反映。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

Frank Mitsch，Fermium Research。

I was curious if you could update us on Sadara. There were obviously press reports early last month that suggested you were looking to exit the partnership. So I was wondering if you could comment on what the future is of Sadara within Dow's portfolio? And also, if you could provide any update in terms of how those assets are given the Iran War.

我想請教你們能否更新一下 Sadara 的情況。上個月初顯然有媒體報導指出你們正在考慮退出該合資夥伴關係。因此我想請你們評論一下，Sadara 在 Dow 投資組合中的未來會是什麼？另外，鑑於伊朗戰爭，你們能否就這些資產目前的狀況提供任何更新？

Yeah. Thanks, Frank, for the question. I think our message is the same as we shared on the call last quarter, we remain really engaged with Aramco. Jim is leading that negotiation team and his new role as except Chair. We've been really clear, I think, on the last call that we've established a financial boundary around Sadara, and we're working (inaudible) diligently to identify the best -- about the assets there is that they are running, not all of them. Some of them are running at reduced rates, as you can imagine, for the obvious reasons.

是的。謝謝你，Frank，提出這個問題。我認為我們的訊息與上季電話會議中分享的一樣：我們仍然與 Aramco 保持高度投入。Jim 正在領導該談判團隊，並在他新的職務（除主席之外）下推進。我想我們在上次電話會議中已經非常清楚地說明：我們已就 Sadara 設定了財務界線，並且正（聽不清）勤勉地努力，找出最佳方案——就那裡的資產而言，有些在運轉，但不是全部。如你所想，基於顯而易見的原因，其中一些以較低負荷運轉。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Maybe a two-part question on your path to zero project in Canada. Can you maybe provide an update on the execution and the next mileposts we should be looking for? And then secondly, at one time, I think there was interest on the part of Dow to explore the notion of bringing in a partner for that project. Is that still the case today? Or perhaps as the sense of urgency diminish given the improvements in the markets that we've seen in recent quarters as well as your balance sheet?

關於你們在加拿大的「通往零（Path to Zero）」專案，我有一個兩部分的問題。你能否提供一下執行進度的更新，以及接下來我們應該關注哪些里程碑？其次，之前我記得 Dow 曾有興趣探討為該專案引入合作夥伴的想法。今天這仍然是你們的方向嗎？或者，鑑於我們在近幾季看到的市場改善以及你們的資產負債表狀況，這種急迫性是否有所降低？

So on I mean, we are squarely in the middle of execution. Our focus remains on completing that project, not only on time but also on budget. So we are about 45% of the way through. There's a lot of long time -- long lead time equipment that's already on the site and most of the rest has been order. We're going to move into the -- really the peak of construction as we get into 2027.

就此而言，我們正處於執行的正中央。我們的重點仍是完成該專案，不僅要按時，也要在預算內。目前我們大約完成了 45%。有許多交期很長——長交期設備已經到場，其餘大部分也已下單。隨著進入 2027 年，我們將進入——也就是施工的高峰期。

So we're moving from about 3,000 that are on-site today to about 6,000 that will be on site next year. And so we're maintaining that really sharp emphasis on execution discipline. Holding ourselves accountable to the time line with that first phase slated to come up at the end of 2029, and then the second phase coming up in 2030.

因此，我們將從目前現場約 3,000 人，增加到明年現場約 6,000 人。因此我們持續非常強調執行紀律。我們要求自己對時程負責：第一期預計在 2029 年底投產，第二期則在 2030 年投產。

We're really confident at this point in the project on both the time line and the budget because it's really grounded in tangible progress that we've already made. And of course, we're leveraging the learnings from other projects that we completed in recent history.

就目前而言，我們對該專案的時程與預算都非常有信心，因為這是建立在我們已經取得的具體進展之上。當然，我們也在運用近年完成的其他專案所累積的經驗。

In terms of a partner, listen, we are very open to all value-creating options as we go forward. I think I've mentioned that before. But what's really important is that it clears the hurdle on returns and that it clears the hurdle on value creation. And so what I would say is that right now, what the team is working on doing and is prepared to do is to move the project over the goal line as ourselves, but we remain open to any options that are available.

至於合作夥伴，聽著，我們對所有能創造價值的選項都非常開放。我想我之前也提過。但真正重要的是：它必須通過報酬率門檻，也必須通過價值創造的門檻。所以我會說，目前團隊正在做、也準備做的是：由我們自己把專案推過終點線，但我們仍對任何可行選項保持開放。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

Matthew Blair，TPH。

Karen, thanks for the update on the Sadara operations. Could you share an operational update on the rest of your Middle East and Asia crackers which ones are fully running and which ones are still constrained?

Karen，謝謝你更新 Sadara 的營運狀況。你能否分享一下你們在中東與亞洲其他裂解廠的營運更新：哪些在滿載運轉，哪些仍受限？

Sure. Thanks for the question. So I'll start with equate. So of course, that's our JV that is in Kuwait. And so we do have assets that are up and running there, but they remain constrained. So there we have one cracker running at full rates and several derivative units are idled due to storage limitations.

當然，謝謝你的提問。我先從 Equate 開始。那當然是我們在科威特的合資企業。我們在那裡確實有資產已經啟動並在運轉，但仍然受限。在那裡，我們有一座裂解廠以滿載運轉，而由於儲存限制，有數個下游衍生品裝置處於停工狀態。

You asked about the JV that's in Thailand. So one cracker was restarted and it's recovering a feedstock -- due to feedstock availability before. And then we have a planned turnaround for the second cracker that is there. And I already mentioned from a Sadara perspective, it's partially restarted with a cracker and polyethylene plastic trains that are online, but the liquids remain down, and that's really in part due to the logistics constraints that persists.

你也問到在泰國的合資企業。其中一座裂解廠已重啟，並且正在恢復原料供應——先前是因為原料可得性受限。另外，我們在那裡的第二座裂解廠有一個計畫性歲修。而我先前也提到，從 Sadara 的角度來看，目前已部分重啟：一座裂解廠與聚乙烯塑膠產線已上線，但液體產品仍停擺，這部分主要是因為物流限制仍然存在。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

John Roberts，瑞穗（Mizuho）。

Yes. Maybe if we could kind of roll that answer into kind of a quantitative, could you have sold a lot more volume in the quarter if your JVs have been running normally you export from many of the JVs? Or is it such that the markets just aren't strong enough that even if the JVs were running normal, you've kind of made up for that from your other operations and you couldn't have sold much more?

是的。也許我們可以把剛才的回答用更量化的方式來看：如果你們的合資企業本季都能正常運轉——你們從許多合資企業都有出口——你們是否能在本季賣出更多的銷量？還是說市場其實不夠強，即使合資企業正常運轉，你們也已經透過其他營運彌補了，因此也不會多賣多少？

Yes, we could have. And even if you look at our third quarter results, I know that the press release said that we were down 1% volume year-over-year. That is in part because we were constrained on the capacity and the product that was coming out of the Middle East. But if you take that out, just in P&SP alone, that business grew 2%. And so yes, there was more demand out there to be had, and we were constrained by the amount of capacity.

是的，我們本來可以賣得更多。即使你看我們第三季的結果，我知道新聞稿寫的是銷量年減 1%。其中一部分原因是我們在中東的產能與產出產品受到限制。但如果把這部分排除，僅在 P&SP 這個業務中，就成長了 2%。所以是的，市場上確實還有更多需求可爭取，而我們受限於可用產能的多寡。

And I think that one of the proof points was in the September ACC data, and you see where we landed at the end of third quarter. Again, inventories declined delivering the largest draw in over a year, but total sales. So domestic plus exports rose in September. They increased over 3% month over month, and that was the second highest month of the year, but also the third highest month on record. So I think that those are important proof points that there's more demand to be had.

我認為其中一個佐證點是在 9 月的 ACC 數據，你可以看到我們在第三季末的落點。再次強調，庫存下降，出現一年多來最大的去化，但總銷售量——也就是國內加出口——在 9 月上升。月增超過 3%，那是今年第二高的月份，同時也是有紀錄以來第三高的月份。所以我認為這些都是重要的佐證，顯示仍有更多需求可爭取。

And if we have more capacity, we would have solved it.

如果我們有更多產能，我們就能滿足它。

Christopher Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

Christopher Parkinson，Wolfe Research。

This is [Harris] on for Chris. Just a quick one on II&I. Just thinking about the outlook for MDI and some of the polyolefin oxide derivatives now that we've we're moving past some of your competitors' outages. I guess, ignoring normal building and construction seasonality. Has anything changed in terms of your price expectations? And I know there was a little bit of a restocking story because of the outages. Are you seeing that your customers are fully restocked or is that still ongoing?

我是 [Harris]，代 Chris 提問。關於 II&I 的一個快問：在我們已經度過部分競爭對手停工之後，想請教一下 MDI 以及部分聚醚多元醇（polyol）衍生品的展望。先不考慮一般建築與施工的季節性。你們對價格的預期有任何改變嗎？我知道因為停工有一些補庫存的故事。你們看到客戶已經完全補完庫存了嗎？還是仍在進行中？

Yes. It's a good question, Chris. Thank you for it. I mean overall markets, to your point, do remain soft. As you know, 40% of the MDI end market is around building and construction, and that continues to be the weakest end market for us across the company.

是的。這是個好問題，Chris。謝謝你的提問。整體市場如你所說仍然偏弱。如你所知，MDI 終端市場中約 40% 與建築與施工相關，而這仍然是我們全公司範圍內最疲弱的終端市場。

And so our expectation is in fourth quarter. We do expect to move back to a longer market with the resolution of industry supply disruptions but also the recent start-up of new capacity here in North America. So the bottom line on MDI is that the market still remains challenging, mainly driven by the weak demand in building and construction. And just a low demand environment overall for that segment which is exacerbated by the new capacity additions. And so longer term, we expect gradual operating rate improvement through 2030, but that's our view on fourth quarter right now.

因此，我們對第四季的預期是：隨著產業供應中斷的解除，以及北美近期新增產能的投產，我們確實預期市場會回到供給較寬鬆的狀態。所以就 MDI 而言，結論是市場仍然充滿挑戰，主要是由建築與施工需求疲弱所驅動。此外，該事業部門整體處於低需求環境，而新增產能又使情況更加嚴峻。因此，從較長期來看，我們預期到 2030 年前營運負荷率將逐步改善，但這是我們目前對第四季的看法。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC 資本市場。

I guess I just wanted to get your thoughts on maybe global utilization rates across your three main chains, polyethylene, polyurethanes and silicones. It appears that we're maybe in the mid-80s. And there hasn't really been any material closures. Would you agree with that? And would you also agree with the statement that China has increased their production pretty significantly in most of those chains, and that's also impacting pricing negatively?

我想我只是想請教您，關於你們三大主要產業鏈——聚乙烯、聚氨酯與矽酮——在全球的產能利用率，您怎麼看？看起來我們可能在 80% 中段。而且似乎並沒有真正出現任何具實質影響的關廠。您同意這個看法嗎？另外，您是否也同意這樣的說法：中國在這些產業鏈中的多數環節大幅提高了產量，並且也對價格造成負面影響？

So let me start with ethylene and polyethylene. We do feel like and believe that operating rates today are in the low 80s. And so -- and I think I've said this before, we believe that we could get back to mid-cycle rates by the end of the decade. And there's a couple of reasons for that. Based on even where we were before the conflict, you needed about 10% of capacity to come out in order to materially get back to mid-cycle operating rates.

那我先從乙烯與聚乙烯談起。我們確實感覺並且相信，目前的開工率在 80% 出頭。因此——而且我想我之前也說過——我們相信到本十年末，我們可以回到中周期的開工率水準。這背後有幾個原因。即使以衝突發生前的情況來看，你需要大約有 10% 的產能退出，才能在實質上回到中周期的開工率。

5% to 6% of that has already been announced and that includes our cracker in Europe. There's another about 8% that's being speculated. Most of all of that are in high-cost regions. And so Asia as well as Europe. Recently heard in the last couple of months that there's another 1 million tons that's been confirmed come out from Korea.

其中有 5% 到 6% 已經宣布退出，這也包括我們在歐洲的裂解裝置。另外大約還有 8% 的產能正在被市場揣測可能退出。這些大多位於高成本地區。也就是亞洲以及歐洲。最近一兩個月我們也聽到，韓國另有 100 萬噸的產能退出已被確認。

And so you're seeing the rationalizations. And of course, we know that there's capacity that's coming online. But the other part of the story is that polyethylene continues to grow as at a factor above GDP. So I would call industry operating rates on the ethylene side today in the low 80s. And again, we believe that we can get back to mid-cycle operating rates by the end of the decade, which also aligns by the way, with the timing of our Alberta asset that, again, the first phase will come up in 2029.

所以你正在看到產能合理化。當然，我們也知道仍有新產能正在投產。但故事的另一部分是，聚乙烯的需求仍以高於 GDP 的速度成長。因此，我會說目前乙烯端的產業開工率在 80% 出頭。同樣地，我們相信到本十年末可以回到中周期的開工率；順帶一提，這也與我們在阿爾伯塔資產的時程相吻合——同樣地，第一期將在 2029 年投產。

On the siloxanes and the silicone side, it's a bit of a tale of two cities. So upstream, you're absolutely right. China has added a significant amount of capacity. It's one of the reasons why we took out our high-cost siloxane capacity in Barry UK in the second quarter of this year.

至於矽氧烷與矽酮端，情況有點像是「兩個世界」的故事。在上游方面，你說得完全正確。中國新增了相當可觀的產能。這也是我們在今年第二季關停英國 Barry 的高成本矽氧烷產能的原因之一。

Just as a reminder, that's going to add $60 million of EBITDA in the second half of the year alone. But it's really important to emphasize that downstream silicones continues to grow significantly.

提醒一下，僅今年下半年，這項措施就將增加 6,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。但非常重要的是要強調，下游矽酮仍在顯著成長。

Directly aligned with the number of mega trends, whether you're talking about electrification, but also obviously, AI infrastructure. So we are seeing that. Most of our end markets in silicones are growing double digits, and that's showing up not only on our order books, but also on the bottom line. And I think I just talked about MTI, one of the -- of course, one of the key value chains where you're seeing over for sure, being built in Europe. We've taken out both in PO -- in particular, we've taken out assets there as well.

這與多項重大趨勢直接一致，不論是電氣化，當然也包括 AI 基礎設施。所以我們確實看到了這點。我們在矽酮的大多數終端市場都以雙位數成長，這不僅反映在我們的訂單簿上，也反映在獲利表現上。而且我想我剛才也談到 MTI，這是其中一條——當然是其中一條關鍵價值鏈——你確實看到在歐洲出現過剩產能的建置。我們在 PO——特別是——也已在那裡退出了相關資產。

But again, working to rightsize our capacity across the entire portfolio with the profitable demand on -- particularly on the downstream. But we continue to see strength in ethylene and polyethylene in particular, and in downstream silicones and a number of other ethylene derivatives.

但同樣地，我們正努力在整個投資組合中，依據可獲利的需求來調整產能規模——特別是在下游端。不過我們仍持續看到乙烯與聚乙烯（尤其是聚乙烯）以及下游矽酮，還有多種其他乙烯衍生物的強勁表現。

Aleksey Yefremov, Barclays.

Aleksey Yefremov，巴克萊。

US polyethylene export prices seem to have been lagging strength in Asia recently. So related to that, could you discuss if there are any logistics for UFP exports or any dynamics with freight rates that are relevant?

美國聚乙烯出口價格最近似乎落後於亞洲的走強。因此相關地，您能否談談 UFP 出口是否有任何物流因素，或是運費費率方面是否有任何相關動態？

No. We aren't seeing any logistics constraints coming out of the U.S. Gulf Coast. As a matter of fact, operating rates there remain above 90%. I've highlighted the ACC data a couple of times on this call.

沒有。我們沒有看到從美國墨西哥灣沿岸出貨有任何物流限制。事實上，那裡的開工率仍維持在 90% 以上。我在這通電話會議中已經提到 ACC 的數據好幾次了。

And again, I think I think that's yet another proof point of both the feedstock advantage that we have here in North America and the fact that we are not seeing any constraints there.

而且同樣地，我認為這又是另一個佐證，證明我們在北美擁有原料優勢，同時也顯示我們沒有看到那裡有任何限制。

Again, our order books are strong. We are seeing China has come back. You've seen that about $0.06 week-over-week spot prices go up. But spot prices are going up around the world, and that's why we have price increases on the table and believe that the current market dynamics will support us achieving those.

同樣地，我們的訂單簿很強勁。我們看到中國已經回來了。你也看到現貨價格週比上漲約 0.06 美元。但全球各地的現貨價格都在上升，這也是為什麼我們已提出漲價，並且相信目前的市場動態將支持我們達成這些漲價。

This concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to the Dow team for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。接下來我將把電話會議交回給陶氏團隊做結語。

Thank you very much. And listen, Jeff and I both really appreciate all the questions that we got this morning. I just wanted to end the call with one key message for you to take away, and it's this. We are not standing still. The Dow team is not standing still.

非常感謝。也請聽我說，Jeff 和我都非常感謝今天早上大家提出的所有問題。我想用一個關鍵訊息來結束這通電話，讓各位帶走，那就是：我們不會停滯不前。陶氏團隊不會停滯不前。

Obviously, the market remains incredibly volatile, but we have the right priorities, and we have the momentum to see it through. Our collective actions are delivering really solid results. We saw them in the third quarter, and we firmly believe we're going to deliver that again in the fourth quarter. And at the same time, we're focused on creating long-term value for our customers, for our shareholders and for all of Team Dow. So thank you for your continued interest in our company, and we appreciate you joining us today.

顯然，市場仍然極度波動，但我們有正確的優先事項，也有把它貫徹到底的動能。我們的集體行動正在帶來非常扎實的成果。我們在第三季看到了，我們也堅信第四季會再次交出同樣的成果。同時，我們也專注於為客戶、為股東以及為所有陶氏團隊成員創造長期價值。感謝各位持續關注我們公司，也感謝各位今天加入我們。

This concludes today's -- sorry, apologies. Go ahead.

今天的會議到此——抱歉，致歉。請繼續。

All right, Jade. Thank you, everyone, for joining. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within 48 hours. This concludes our call.

好的，Jade。謝謝各位的參與。供各位參考，我們的逐字稿副本將在 48 小時內發布於陶氏網站。本次電話會議到此結束。

Thank you, Dow team. You may now disconnect.

謝謝陶氏團隊。各位現在可以斷線。