陶氏化學 (DOW) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I will now turn it over to Dow Investor Relations Vice President, Pankaj Gupta.

我現在將把它交給陶氏投資者關係副總裁 Pankaj Gupta。

Mr. Gupta, you may begin.

Gupta 先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining Dow's fourth quarter earnings call. This call is available via webcast, and we have prepared slides to supplement our comments today. They are posted on the Investor Relations section of Dow's website and through the link to our webcast.

早上好。感謝您參加陶氏第四季度財報電話會議。此電話會議可通過網絡廣播進行，我們準備了幻燈片來補充我們今天的評論。它們發佈在陶氏網站的投資者關係部分，並通過我們網絡廣播的鏈接發布。

I'm Pankaj Gupta, Dow Investor Relations Vice President. And joining me today on the call are Jim Fitterling, Dow's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Howard Ungerleider, President and Chief Financial Officer.

我是陶氏投資者關係副總裁 Pankaj Gupta。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有陶氏化學董事長兼首席執行官吉姆·菲特林 (Jim Fitterling)；總裁兼首席財務官 Howard Ungerleider。

Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the earnings news release and slides. During our call, we'll make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations or predictions about the future. Because these statements are based on current assumptions and factors that involve risks and uncertainties, our actual performance and results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements.

請閱讀收益新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。在通話期間，我們將就我們對未來的期望或預測做出前瞻性陳述。由於這些陳述基於當前的假設和因素，涉及風險和不確定性，我們的實際業績和結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

Dow's Forms 10-Q and 10-K include detailed discussions of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause such differences. Unless otherwise specified, all financials, where applicable exclude significant items. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures is contained in the Dow earnings release, in the slides that supplement our comments today as well as on the Dow website.

陶氏的 10-Q 和 10-K 表格包括對可能導致此類差異的主要風險和不確定性的詳細討論。除非另有說明，否則所有財務數據（如適用）均不包括重要項目。我們還將參考非 GAAP 措施。最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和其他相關披露的對賬包含在道指收益發布、補充我們今天評論的幻燈片以及道指網站上。

On Slide 2, you will see the agenda for our call. Jim will begin by reviewing our fourth quarter results and operating segment performance. Howard will then share our outlook and modeling guidance. And to close, Jim will then outline our competitive position for long-term value creation. Following that, we will take your questions.

在幻燈片 2 上，您將看到我們電話會議的議程。 Jim 將首先回顧我們第四季度的業績和運營部門的業績。霍華德隨後將分享我們的展望和建模指南。最後，吉姆將概述我們在長期價值創造方面的競爭地位。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

Now let me turn the call over to Jim.

現在讓我把電話轉給吉姆。

Thank you, Pankaj. Beginning on Slide 3. In the fourth quarter, Team Dow continued to take proactive actions to navigate slower GDP growth, challenging energy markets and customer destocking. We proactively lowered our operating rates to effectively manage working capital, implemented operational mitigation plans and cost saving measures and prioritized higher-value products where demand remained resilient, including in functional polymers and performance silicones as well as in mobility, renewable energy and pharma end markets.

謝謝你，潘卡吉。從幻燈片 3 開始。在第四季度，陶氏化學團隊繼續採取積極行動應對 GDP 增長放緩、挑戰能源市場和客戶去庫存。我們主動降低開工率以有效管理營運資金，實施運營緩解計劃和成本節約措施，並優先考慮需求保持彈性的高價值產品，包括功能性聚合物和高性能有機矽以及機動性、可再生能源和製藥終端市場.

These actions, combined with our continued focus on cash enabled us to deliver cash flow from operations of $2.1 billion in the quarter. Cash flow conversion was 166%, and we returned $620 million to shareholders.

這些行動，加上我們對現金的持續關注，使我們能夠在本季度提供 21 億美元的運營現金流。現金流轉換率為 166%，我們向股東返還了 6.2 億美元。

Dow's cash generation reflects our continued focus on operational and financial discipline, which was important as we navigated an extremely dynamic year in 2022, as you see on Slide 4. In the first half of the year, we capitalized on strong demand across our diverse global portfolio, while leveraging our derivative and feedstock flexibility and low cost positions to mitigate higher raw material and energy costs.

陶氏的現金產生反映了我們對運營和財務紀律的持續關注，這對於我們度過了充滿活力的 2022 年非常重要，正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣。今年上半年，我們利用了多元化全球市場的強勁需求投資組合，同時利用我們的衍生品和原料靈活性以及低成本地位來緩解較高的原材料和能源成本。

In the second half of the year, economic conditions deteriorated driven by record inflation, rising interest rates, ongoing pandemic lockdowns in China and continued geopolitical tensions. In the face of these evolving market dynamics, Dow was resilient, generating cash flow from operations of $7.5 billion for the full year while executing our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation. We delivered returns on invested capital of 15%, above our 13% across the economic cycle target, as we prioritized higher return, lower risk and faster payback investments.

今年下半年，由於創紀錄的通貨膨脹、利率上升、中國持續的大流行封鎖以及持續的地緣政治緊張局勢，經濟狀況惡化。面對這些不斷變化的市場動態，陶氏化學保持了韌性，全年從運營中產生了 75 億美元的現金流，同時執行我們有紀律和平衡的資本配置方法。我們實現了 15% 的投資資本回報率，高於我們在整個經濟周期目標 13% 的回報率，因為我們優先考慮更高回報、更低風險和更快回報的投資。

We achieved credit rating and outlook upgrades as a result of our strengthened balance sheet, and we have no substantive debt maturities due until 2027. And we returned a total of $4.3 billion to shareholders, including $2.3 billion in share repurchases and $2 billion in dividends.

由於我們的資產負債表得到加強，我們實現了信用評級和展望升級，並且我們在 2027 年之前沒有到期的實質性債務。我們向股東返還了 43 億美元，包括 23 億美元的股票回購和 20 億美元的股息。

At the same time, we continue to advance our Decarbonize & Grow strategy and accelerate circularity to create long-term shareholder value as we meet growing customer demand for more sustainable solutions. I'm proud of how Team Dow continues to deliver for our customers, drive shareholder value and support our communities as we progress toward our 2050 carbon neutrality target, and you can see a number of those highlights depicted on this slide.

與此同時，我們繼續推進我們的脫碳與增長戰略並加速循環，以創造長期股東價值，因為我們滿足了客戶對更可持續解決方案不斷增長的需求。在我們朝著 2050 年碳中和目標邁進的過程中，我為陶氏團隊如何繼續為我們的客戶提供服務、推動股東價值和支持我們的社區而感到自豪，您可以在這張幻燈片上看到其中的許多亮點。

Now turning to our operating segment performance on Slide 5. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, net sales were $6.1 billion, down 16% year-over-year as price gains across all regions and functional polymers were more than offset by lower polyethylene and olefin prices. Volume declines were driven primarily by lower olefins and packaging demand in Europe, which was partly offset by a resilient global demand for functional polymers. Sequentially, net sales were down 17% driven by lower hydrocarbon sales and polyethylene prices.

現在轉向我們在幻燈片 5 上的運營部門業績。在包裝和特種塑料部門，淨銷售額為 61 億美元，同比下降 16%，因為所有地區和功能聚合物的價格上漲被較低的聚乙烯和烯烴價格。銷量下降的主要原因是歐洲較低的烯烴和包裝需求，這部分被全球對功能聚合物的彈性需求所抵消。隨後，由於碳氫化合物銷售額和聚乙烯價格下降，淨銷售額下降了 17%。

Operating EBIT for the segment was $655 million compared to $1.4 billion in the year ago period, primarily due to lower integrated polyethylene margins. Sequentially, operating EBIT was down $130 million as lower raw material and energy costs were more than offset by lower polyethylene prices and operating rates.

該部門的營業息稅前利潤為 6.55 億美元，而去年同期為 14 億美元，這主要是由於聚乙烯綜合利潤率較低。因此，由於較低的原材料和能源成本被較低的聚乙烯價格和開工率所抵消，營業息稅前利潤下降了 1.3 億美元。

Moving to the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment. Net sales were $3.7 billion, down 20% from the year ago period. Volumes declined primarily due to lower demand in Europe for industrial, consumer durables, and building and construction applications. Sequentially, net sales were down 10% as seasonal demand increases for de-icing fluid were more than offset by declines in building and construction, consumer durables and industrial applications.

轉向工業中間體和基礎設施部門。淨銷售額為 37 億美元，比去年同期下降 20%。銷量下降的主要原因是歐洲對工業、耐用消費品以及建築和施工應用的需求下降。隨後，淨銷售額下降了 10%，因為對除冰液的季節性需求增長被建築、耐用消費品和工業應用的需求下降所抵消。

Operating EBIT for the segment was $164 million compared to $595 million in the year-ago period, driven by lower demand and increasing energy costs, particularly in Europe. Sequentially, operating EBIT margins expanded by 40 basis points as lower energy costs versus the prior quarter were partly offset by lower volumes.

該部門的營業息稅前利潤為 1.64 億美元，而去年同期為 5.95 億美元，原因是需求下降和能源成本增加，尤其是在歐洲。結果，營業息稅前利潤率擴大了 40 個基點，因為與上一季度相比較低的能源成本部分被較低的銷量所抵消。

And in the Performance Materials & Coatings segment, we reported net sales of $2.1 billion, down 20% year-over-year as local price gains for performance silicones and architectural coatings were more than offset by lower prices for siloxanes and acrylic monomers.

在性能材料和塗料領域，我們報告的淨銷售額為 21 億美元，同比下降 20%，這是因為性能有機矽和建築塗料的本地價格上漲被矽氧烷和丙烯酸單體的價格下跌所抵消。

Volume was down as resilient demand in mobility was more than offset by declines primarily in building and construction end markets. Sequentially, net sales were down 22% due to seasonally lower demand for coatings, industrial and building and construction applications as well as local price declines for siloxanes and acrylic monomers.

由於流動性的彈性需求被主要建築和建築終端市場的下滑所抵消，成交量有所下降。由於塗料、工業和建築應用的季節性需求下降以及矽氧烷和丙烯酸單體的當地價格下跌，淨銷售額下降了 22%。

Operating EBIT for the segment was a loss of $130 million compared to earnings of $295 million in the year ago period due to local price declines primarily in siloxane and lower operating rates in the quarter. Sequentially, operating EBIT declined $432 million, driven by lower prices, demand and operating rates.

該部門的營業息稅前利潤為虧損 1.3 億美元，而去年同期為盈利 2.95 億美元，主要是由於本地矽氧烷價格下降和本季度較低的開工率。在價格、需求和開工率下降的推動下，營業息稅前利潤下降了 4.32 億美元。

I'll now turn it over to Howard to review our outlook and actions on Slide 6.

現在我將把它交給霍華德來回顧我們對幻燈片 6 的展望和行動。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. We expect the market dynamics we experienced in late 2022 to continue into early '23. While the pace of inflation has moderated, overall cost levels remain elevated, which has continued to trigger tighter monetary policy in most parts of the world and is weighing on both business investment and consumer sentiment. The majority of economic forecasts are calling for slower GDP growth globally relative to 2022, although dynamics differ by region, with most regions except Europe still forecasting positive year-on-year growth. In the U.S., we see signs of moderating demand and the continuation of year-end destocking trends early in the quarter. Building and construction end markets have been particularly impacted by inflation and rising interest rates with housing starts declining by more than 20% year-over-year in December.

謝謝你，吉姆，大家早上好。我們預計我們在 2022 年底經歷的市場動態將持續到 23 年初。儘管通脹步伐放緩，但總體成本水平仍然居高不下，這繼續引發世界大部分地區收緊貨幣政策，並對商業投資和消費者信心造成壓力。大多數經濟預測都呼籲全球 GDP 增長相對於 2022 年放緩，儘管動態因地區而異，除歐洲外的大多數地區仍預測同比增長為正。在美國，我們在本季度初看到需求放緩的跡像以及年底去庫存趨勢的延續。建築終端市場尤其受到通貨膨脹和利率上升的影響，12 月份新屋開工率同比下降超過 20%。

Manufacturing PMI contracted for the third consecutive month of 48, while light vehicle sales in the U.S. were down for the full year by 8 percentage points. Easing inflation is leading to improving consumer confidence, albeit from depressed levels in late 2022, while consumer spending remains resilient.

製造業 PMI 連續第三個月收縮至 48，而美國輕型車銷量全年下降 8 個百分點。儘管 2022 年底消費者信心處於低迷水平，但通脹放緩正在改善消費者信心，同時消費者支出仍保持彈性。

In Europe, we expect demand to remain constrained despite recent improvements in regional energy prices. While the move to 5-year highs in gas storage is a positive sign, changing weather forecasts are leading to volatility in the futures markets. High inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on consumer spending and industrial production. December manufacturing PMI has been contracting since July, and construction PMI reached its lowest level since May.

在歐洲，儘管近期區域能源價格有所改善，但我們預計需求仍將受到限制。雖然儲氣量升至 5 年高位是一個積極信號，但不斷變化的天氣預報正在導致期貨市場波動。高通脹和地緣政治緊張局勢繼續拖累消費者支出和工業生產。 12月製造業PMI自7月以來一直收縮，建築業PMI創5月以來新低。

In China, while we're very encouraged by recent shifts in COVID policy to ease restrictions and open up orders, we expect these actions to take some time to improve economic activity. This is an area we're closely monitoring as it has the potential to provide a source of significant demand recovery following the Lunar New Year.

在中國，雖然我們對最近 COVID 政策的轉變以放寬限制和開放訂單感到非常鼓舞，但我們預計這些行動需要一些時間來改善經濟活動。這是我們正在密切關注的一個領域，因為它有可能在農曆新年後提供顯著需求復甦的來源。

And in Latin America, overall economic growth is expected to slow, driven by political tensions, high inflation, and restrictive monetary policy. Given this dynamic backdrop, we will continue to take a region by region, business-by-business approach to managing our operations and adapting our businesses to the evolving market realities.

在拉丁美洲，受政治緊張局勢、高通脹和限制性貨幣政策的推動，整體經濟增長預計將放緩。鑑於這種動態背景，我們將繼續採取逐個地區、逐個業務的方法來管理我們的運營並使我們的業務適應不斷變化的市場現實。

Turning to Slide 7. As we highlighted at our last earnings call, we are proactively responding to the current economic environment with a playbook of targeted actions to deliver $1 billion in cost savings. This begins with maintaining a low cost to serve operating model by implementing actions to optimize our labor and service costs, including a global workforce reduction of approximately 2,000 roles. We will continue to increase productivity with end-to-end process improvements now that our digital foundation is in place, and we will also shut down select assets while further evaluating additional actions across our global asset base, particularly in Europe to ensure long-term competitiveness while also enhancing our cost efficiency.

轉到幻燈片 7。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上強調的那樣，我們正在積極應對當前的經濟環境，制定有針對性的行動手冊以節省 10 億美元的成本。首先是通過實施優化我們的勞動力和服務成本的行動來維持低成本的服務運營模式，包括在全球範圍內減少約 2,000 個職位。既然我們的數字基礎已經到位，我們將繼續通過端到端流程改進來提高生產力，我們還將關閉部分資產，同時進一步評估我們全球資產基礎的其他行動，特別是在歐洲，以確保長期競爭力的同時也提高了我們的成本效率。

These structural actions are expected to deliver a total of $500 million in EBITDA savings this year. Additionally, we will deliver another $500 million of savings through actions to maximize cash flow while reducing our operational expenses. This includes decreasing turnaround spend, purchased raw materials, logistics and utilities costs. Importantly, we will do this while maintaining safe and reliable operations, which, as always, remains our top priority. These proactive actions will optimize our cost structure in response to the near-term macroeconomic uncertainty while maintaining our long-term value-creation focus.

這些結構性措施預計今年將帶來總計 5 億美元的 EBITDA 節省。此外，我們將通過最大限度地提高現金流量同時減少運營費用的行動，再節省 5 億美元。這包括減少周轉支出、採購原材料、物流和公用事業成本。重要的是，我們將在保持安全可靠運營的同時做到這一點，這始終是我們的首要任務。這些積極的行動將優化我們的成本結構，以應對近期宏觀經濟的不確定性，同時保持我們長期的價值創造重點。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter on Slide 8. In the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, improving logistics and lower operating rates led to the fifth consecutive month of inventory declines for U.S. polyethylene in December. Reduced global operating rates are continuing to drive feedstock and input costs down, with ongoing destocking through the value chain impacting functional polymer strength and demand in Europe. While lower turnaround costs will be a sequential tailwind, we expect lower demand levels in Asia to impact equity earnings and lower nonrecurring licensing activity from the prior quarter will impact earnings. In total, we expect a $75 million headwind for the segment sequentially.

轉向我們對幻燈片 8 的第一季度展望。在包裝和特種塑料領域，改善物流和降低開工率導致 12 月美國聚乙烯庫存連續第五個月下降。全球開工率的下降繼續推動原料和投入成本下降，價值鏈的持續去庫存影響了歐洲功能聚合物的實力和需求。雖然較低的周轉成本將是一個連續的順風，但我們預計亞洲較低的需求水平將影響股票收益，而上一季度的非經常性許可活動減少將影響收益。總的來說，我們預計該部門將依次面臨 7500 萬美元的逆風。

In the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment, demand remains stable for energy markets, and we're monitoring demand for de-icing fluids with a warmer-than-average winter. However, inflationary pressures in contracting PMIs continue to impact industrial demand, and we expect lower seasonal volumes in building construction end markets. We also anticipate an approximately $25 million headwind due to a third-party outage, which is causing a supply disruption on the U.S. Gulf Coast from Winter Storm Elliott.

在工業中間體和基礎設施領域，能源市場的需求保持穩定，我們正在監測冬季溫度高於平均水平的除冰液需求。然而，收縮的 PMI 中的通脹壓力繼續影響工業需求，我們預計建築終端市場的季節性交易量將下降。我們還預計，由於第三方停電，冬季風暴埃利奧特導緻美國墨西哥灣沿岸的供應中斷，造成約 2500 萬美元的逆風。

In the Performance Materials & Coatings segment, we expect demand recovery for performance silicones following year-end customer destocking as well as improved supply availability and lower costs. However, we also anticipate lower siloxane pricing in the quarter as we continue to see pressure from increased industry supply. We expect higher planned maintenance turnaround costs in this segment at our Deer Park acrylic monomer site in Performance Monomers. All in, we anticipate a $25 million tailwind for the segment.

在特性材料和塗料領域，我們預計在年底客戶去庫存以及供應可用性提高和成本降低後，對高性能有機矽的需求將恢復。然而，由於我們繼續看到來自行業供應增加的壓力，我們還預計本季度矽氧烷價格會下降。我們預計，在我們位於高性能單體的 Deer Park 丙烯酸單體工廠，該部門的計劃維護周轉成本會更高。總而言之，我們預計該部門將獲得 2500 萬美元的順風。

In total, we expect the first quarter to be in line with the fourth quarter performance with the $75 million in discrete headwinds I mentioned.

總的來說，我們預計第一季度將與第四季度的表現保持一致，我提到的 7500 萬美元的離散逆風。

Turning to the full year. We're continuing to provide our best estimates of several income statement and cash flow drivers. I will highlight a few notable year-over-year inputs. We expect lower equity earnings in the year down approximately $300 million to $400 million. Total turnaround spending is anticipated to be down by $300 million as we implement our playbook of cost savings actions while maintaining safe and reliable operations. We expect share count to remain relatively flat as we plan to continue covering dilution.

轉向全年。我們將繼續提供對幾個損益表和現金流量驅動因素的最佳估計。我將重點介紹一些值得注意的同比投入。我們預計今年的股權收益將下降約 3 億至 4 億美元。隨著我們實施成本節約行動手冊，同時保持安全可靠的運營，預計總周轉支出將減少 3 億美元。我們預計股票數量將保持相對平穩，因為我們計劃繼續彌補稀釋。

And finally, we anticipate increasing our capital expenditures to $2.2 billion, well within our DNA of $2.8 billion as we continue to advance our higher return, faster payback projects and continue to execute on our Decarbonize & Grow strategy.

最後，隨著我們繼續推進更高回報、更快回報的項目並繼續執行我們的脫碳與增長戰略，我們預計將資本支出增加到 22 億美元，完全符合我們 28 億美元的 DNA。

Overall, the macroeconomic backdrop remains dynamic in 2023. We see the potential for additional upside from higher oil to gas spreads, reopening in China following the Lunar New Year, and easing inflation in supply chain constraints. We also continue to pay close attention to a range of indicators, including pressure from higher interest rates on building and construction, PMI levels, global energy markets and geopolitical dynamics. Dow remains well positioned based on our global footprint, feedstock flexibility and the sustainable solutions we provide for our customers. We will continue to leverage these competitive advantages to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

總體而言，宏觀經濟背景在 2023 年仍然充滿活力。我們認為，油氣價差上漲、中國在農曆新年後重新開放以及供應鏈限制中的通脹緩解等因素可能帶來額外的上行空間。我們還繼續密切關註一系列指標，包括建築業利率上升帶來的壓力、PMI 水平、全球能源市場和地緣政治動態。基於我們的全球足跡、原料靈活性和我們為客戶提供的可持續解決方案，陶氏仍然處於有利地位。我們將繼續利用這些競爭優勢為股東創造長期價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to Jim.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thank you, Howard. Moving to Slide 10. While the near-term environment remains challenging, we continue to see attractive secular trends across our market verticals of packaging, infrastructure, consumer and mobility. With resilient cash flow generation and a strong credit profile, we are well positioned to continue advancing our Decarbonize and Grow strategy to capitalize on these opportunities. We delivered on our growth investment commitments outlined in early 2022. These investments are expected to collectively generate $2 billion in run rate EBITDA by the middle of this decade.

謝謝你，霍華德。轉到幻燈片 10。雖然近期環境仍然充滿挑戰，但我們繼續看到我們在包裝、基礎設施、消費者和移動性等垂直市場中具有吸引力的長期趨勢。憑藉富有彈性的現金流產生和強大的信用狀況，我們有能力繼續推進我們的脫碳和增長戰略，以利用這些機會。我們兌現了 2022 年初概述的增長投資承諾。預計到本十年中期，這些投資將共同產生 20 億美元的 EBITDA 運行率。

In Packaging & Specialty Plastics, we mechanically completed and began final commissioning of our FCDh unit in Louisiana in the fourth quarter. This breakthrough propylene technology features up to 25% lower capital outlay while reducing energy usage and greenhouse gas emissions by up to 20% versus conventional PDH units.

在包裝和特種塑料方面，我們在第四季度完成並開始了位於路易斯安那州的 FCDh 裝置的最終調試。與傳統 PDH 裝置相比，這項突破性丙烯技術的資本支出最多可減少 25%，同時能源使用和溫室氣體排放量最多可減少 20%。

In Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, our latest alkoxylates capacity investment in the United States was completed in the third quarter of 2022, and our next in Europe will be completed in the first quarter of this year. These projects will further serve high-value markets in home care and pharma and are just a start. Our next wave of alkoxylates capacity investments remain on track. In fact, Dow has already successfully begun locking in supply contract with several consumer and pharmaceutical customers to support the next wave of growth.

在工業中間體和基礎設施方面，我們在美國的最新烷氧基化物產能投資已於 2022 年第三季度完成，我們在歐洲的下一個產能投資將在今年第一季度完成。這些項目將進一步服務於家庭護理和製藥領域的高價值市場，而這只是一個開始。我們的下一波烷氧基化物產能投資仍在進行中。事實上，陶氏已經成功地開始與多家消費品和醫藥客戶簽訂供應合同，以支持下一波增長。

And in Performance Materials & Coatings, we completed 16 downstream silicone debottleneck projects in 2022 to meet demand for high performance, building and construction, personal care and mobility applications.

在特性材料和塗料方面，我們在 2022 年完成了 16 個下游有機矽去瓶頸項目，以滿足對高性能、建築和施工、個人護理和移動應用的需求。

Additionally, we accelerated the delivery of our digitalization initiatives and now expect the full $300 million run rate EBITDA to fully materialize by the end of 2023, well ahead of our prior target of 2025. As a result, we anticipate our digital sales to comprise 50% of total revenue by 2025.

此外，我們加快了數字化計劃的實施，現在預計 3 億美元的運行率 EBITDA 將在 2023 年底之前完全實現，遠遠超過我們先前設定的 2025 年目標。因此，我們預計我們的數字銷售額將達到 50到 2025 年佔總收入的百分比。

Looking forward, we expect to continue growth investments in our global operations, including key capital investments in higher-margin polyurethane systems and additional alkoxylates capacity, incremental projects to expand downstream, high-value ethylene derivative capacity and continued coatings and silicone debottlenecking projects. We will also continue progressing our operating investments to improve production capabilities and reliability as we shift our product mix toward higher growth and higher-value markets.

展望未來，我們預計將繼續對我們的全球業務進行增長投資，包括對利潤率較高的聚氨酯系統和額外烷氧基化物產能的關鍵資本投資、擴大下游的增量項目、高價值乙烯衍生物產能以及持續的塗料和有機矽去瓶頸項目。隨著我們將產品組合轉向更高增長和更高價值的市場，我們還將繼續推進我們的運營投資以提高生產能力和可靠性。

Turning to Slide 11. Decarbonizing our assets and driving circularity remains a significant growth opportunity for Dow. We have a clear road map to reduce carbon emissions by another 5 million metric tons by 2030. We continue to invest in innovative, renewable energy and efficiency technologies, such as our collaborative program with Shell to electrically heat steam cracker furnaces, which is on track to start up in 2025.

轉到幻燈片 11。對我們的資產進行脫碳和推動循環仍然是陶氏的重要增長機會。我們制定了到 2030 年再減少 500 萬公噸碳排放量的明確路線圖。我們繼續投資於創新的可再生能源和能效技術，例如我們與殼牌公司合作的電熱蒸汽裂解爐項目，該項目正在按計劃進行2025年啟動。

In Alberta, we reached a preliminary investment decision for our Path2Zero, and we are working with the Canadian government to confirm necessary incentives so that we can make a final investment decision by the end of this year. And our Terneuzen 2030 project, where we have a clear road map to reduce carbon emissions at the site by more than 40% by 2030 is making progress as we secure partner and government agreements and subsidies. We are also advancing our transform the waste target to commercialize 3 million metric tons of circular and renewable solutions annually by 2030.

在艾伯塔省，我們對 Path2Zero 做出了初步投資決定，我們正在與加拿大政府合作確認必要的激勵措施，以便我們可以在今年年底前做出最終投資決定。而我們的 Terneuzen 2030 項目，我們有一個明確的路線圖，到 2030 年將現場的碳排放量減少 40% 以上，因為我們獲得了合作夥伴和政府的協議和補貼，正在取得進展。我們還在推進我們的垃圾改造目標，即到 2030 年每年將 300 萬噸循環和可再生解決方案商業化。

By leveraging our pipeline of strategic partnerships to invest in innovative solutions and scale up production, we are well positioned to meet this growing customer demand in a disciplined and capital-efficient manner.

通過利用我們的戰略合作夥伴渠道投資創新解決方案並擴大生產規模，我們有能力以規範和資本高效的方式滿足這一不斷增長的客戶需求。

Most recently, Dow and WM announced a bold new collaboration to address hard-to-recycle plastic films by enabling them to be placed directly into residential curbside recycling. By 2025, the program is expected to divert more than 120,000 metric tons of plastic film from landfills.

最近，陶氏化學和 WM 宣布了一項大膽的新合作，通過將塑料薄膜直接放入住宅路邊回收來解決難以回收的塑料薄膜問題。到 2025 年，該計劃預計將從垃圾填埋場轉移超過 120,000 公噸塑料薄膜。

We continue to see sustainability as essential for our long-term earnings growth. Altogether, by 2030, we remain on track to deliver $3 billion in underlying EBITDA improvements while reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 30% compared to our 2005 baseline.

我們繼續認為可持續性對於我們的長期收益增長至關重要。總而言之，到 2030 年，我們仍有望實現 30 億美元的基本 EBITDA 改善，同時與我們的 2005 年基準相比，將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量減少 30%。

Turning to Slide 12. The actions we've taken since spin to strengthen our balance sheet while improving our financial flexibility and operating cash flow generation are enabling us to be more resilient as we deliver on our capital allocation priorities across the economic cycle. Our free cash flow performance is now more than tripled on a trailing 12-month basis. We substantially improved our liquidity position, ending the year with nearly $14 billion. And through our disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation, we've significantly reduced our liability profile with a combined reduction of more than $11 billion in our net debt and underfunded pension position since spin.

轉到幻燈片 12。自從分拆以來，我們為加強資產負債表而採取的行動，同時提高了我們的財務靈活性和運營現金流的產生，使我們能夠在實現整個經濟周期的資本配置優先事項時更具彈性。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們的自由現金流表現現在增長了兩倍多。我們大幅改善了我們的流動性狀況，年底時流動性狀況接近 140 億美元。通過我們有紀律和平衡的資本配置方法，我們已經顯著降低了我們的負債狀況，自分拆以來我們的淨債務和資金不足的養老金頭寸總共減少了超過 110 億美元。

Closing on Slide 13, we have a clear playbook of actions to drive resilient performance in the near and long term. We have plans to achieve $1 billion in savings through targeted actions to increase efficiency and maintain a low-cost structure that is best in class. We're maintaining a strong financial position with a continued focus on disciplined and balanced capital allocation, and we're advancing our Decarbonize and Grow and circularity strategies, delivering incremental run rate EBITDA improvements through the end of the decade, positioning us for economic recovery while lowering our carbon dioxide emissions.

在幻燈片 13 結束時，我們有一個明確的行動手冊來推動近期和長期的彈性表現。我們計劃通過有針對性的行動來提高效率並維持同類最佳的低成本結構，從而節省 10 億美元。我們通過繼續關注有紀律和平衡的資本分配來保持穩健的財務狀況，並且我們正在推進我們的脫碳和增長以及循環戰略，在本十年末實現 EBITDA 的增量運行率改善，使我們為經濟復甦做好準備同時降低我們的二氧化碳排放量。

As we leverage our competitive advantages, operational agility and focus on cash flow generation that has served us well since spin, we will continue to deliver long-term value for our shareholders.

由於我們利用我們的競爭優勢、運營靈活性和專注於自分拆以來一直為我們服務的現金流產生，我們將繼續為我們的股東創造長期價值。

With that, I'll turn it back to Pankaj to open up the Q&A.

有了這個，我會把它轉回 Pankaj 打開問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Now let's move on to your questions. I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Operator, please provide the Q&A instructions.

謝謝你，吉姆。現在讓我們繼續你的問題。我想提醒您，我們的前瞻性陳述適用於我們準備好的評論和以下問答。運營商，請提供問答說明。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）你的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯。

Wondering if you could just unpack the outlook for Performance Materials & Coatings a little bit. And it sounds like there's just a lot of moving parts right now with weak China in the fourth quarter but now reopening, some issues with new supply coming into the market. So obviously, uncertainty about how far and how fast China will reopen. But could you give us sort of the range of outcomes for how this segment might recover as we move through the year, representing that it could be a wide range? .

想知道您是否可以稍微解釋一下功能材料和塗料的前景。聽起來，第四季度中國經濟疲軟，但現在重新開放，新供應進入市場存在一些問題。很明顯，中國重新開放的程度和速度存在不確定性。但是你能否給我們一些結果的範圍，說明這一細分市場在這一年中如何恢復，表明它可能是一個廣泛的範圍？ .

Sure. Vince, thanks for the question. First, I think it's important to look back at the fourth quarter on PM&C and understand the fourth quarter. Coatings & Performance Monomers kind of got back to the normal fourth quarter seasonality that we would see, which a year ago was very different because we were still recovering from all the supply disruptions from winter storm Uri and everything else that was associated with that. So I think you'll see that they'll come back to a more normal season in 2023.

當然。文斯，謝謝你的提問。首先，我認為回顧第四季度的 PM&C 並了解第四季度很重要。 Coatings & Performance Monomers 有點回到我們將看到的正常第四季度季節性，這與一年前大不相同，因為我們仍在從冬季風暴 Uri 和與之相關的其他一切造成的所有供應中斷中恢復過來。所以我想你會看到他們會在 2023 年回到一個更正常的賽季。

And you also saw the impact of destocking. Destocking in the fourth quarter represented, and this is across the businesses, about 50% to 60% of the slowdown that we saw in the fourth quarter. So I think the destocking is going to work itself through in the first quarter. And then I think you'll see us get back to normal seasonality there.

你也看到了去庫存的影響。第四季度的去庫存代表了我們在第四季度看到的放緩的大約 50% 到 60%，這涉及到整個業務。所以我認為去庫存將在第一季度自行完成。然後我想你會看到我們在那裡恢復正常的季節性。

I do think positively on China for Coatings & Performance Monomers, I do think we're seeing China opening up. We're not seeing issues with people coming to work. So I think we're optimistic that the government will probably try to stimulate the construction economy there, and we'll start to see that take off through the year.

我確實對中國的塗料和性能單體持積極看法，我確實認為我們正在看到中國開放。我們沒有看到人們上班的問題。所以我認為我們對政府可能會嘗試刺激那裡的建築經濟持樂觀態度，我們將開始看到這一年的起飛。

On silicones and siloxanes, you had 2 impacts. One was the market impact of things slowing, which was the lower siloxane prices. That hit hardest in China, obviously, at the end of the year. The other one was self-inflicted. We happen to have all 3 of the silicone pillar plants with siloxanes pillar plant down at some point in the fourth quarter. And that lower operating rate really hurt us. They're, all 3 back up and running. So I think that issue is behind us. So I would expect you'll start to see siloxanes demand pick back up. We saw destocking in all the downstream areas in silicones, personal care, home consumer goods, and we also saw it, obviously, in building and construction. I think that will start to rebound as the year progresses.

對於有機矽和矽氧烷，您產生了 2 種影響。一是經濟放緩對市場的影響，即矽氧烷價格下跌。顯然，在年底，中國受到的打擊最為嚴重。另一個是自己造成的。在第四季度的某個時候，我們碰巧將所有 3 家矽氧烷支柱工廠和矽氧烷支柱工廠都關閉了。較低的開工率確實傷害了我們。他們是，所有 3 備份和運行。所以我認為這個問題已經過去了。所以我希望你會開始看到矽氧烷需求回升。我們在有機矽、個人護理、家庭消費品的所有下游領域都看到了去庫存，顯然，我們在建築業也看到了這一點。我認為隨著時間的推移，這將開始反彈。

The next question comes from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Jim, Howard, given the recent decline in European natural gas prices, how are you thinking about the competitiveness of the European operations going forward? .

Jim, Howard，考慮到最近歐洲天然氣價格的下跌，您如何看待未來歐洲業務的競爭力？ .

David, very good question. Obviously, the European situation has been tough on all the European producers over this past year. In fact, if you think about the year-over-year performance for Dow for the full year, 60% of the decline in EBIT was related to Europe and that energy situation. So this is very targeted.

大衛，很好的問題。顯然，在過去的一年裡，歐洲的形勢對所有歐洲生產商來說都很艱難。事實上，如果你考慮道瓊斯指數全年的同比表現，60% 的息稅前利潤下降與歐洲和能源形勢有關。所以這是非常有針對性的。

Incrementally, we saw a step change in the fourth quarter, obviously driven by the warmer winter and the inventory levels being back up. And they've done an admirable job, especially in Germany, of switching away from Russian natural gas over to other sources. So that has helped. But we still have to take a look at long-term energy policies and work with the governments, both EU and the member states on energy policies because we're a long way away from long-term competitiveness in Europe.

漸進地，我們看到第四季度發生了階躍變化，這顯然是受暖冬和庫存水平回升的推動。他們在從俄羅斯天然氣轉向其他來源方面做得非常出色，尤其是在德國。所以這有所幫助。但我們仍需審視長期能源政策，並與歐盟和成員國政府就能源政策展開合作，因為我們距離歐洲的長期競爭力還有很長的路要走。

I would say the decisions we announced today around restructuring, right now, we've looked at locations that are going to be challenged in any scenario long term, and we'll take actions on those. But on large sites, like our large cracker sites, we're still able to run cash flow positive, and we're working hard on that energy situation. We'll continue to analyze that through this year and see what kind of work we can do with the governments there to make them more competitive long term.

我想說我們今天宣布的關於重組的決定，現在，我們已經研究了在任何情況下長期受到挑戰的地點，我們將對這些地點採取行動。但在大型網站上，比如我們的大型裂解網站，我們仍然能夠保持現金流為正，並且我們正在努力解決能源問題。我們將在今年繼續對此進行分析，看看我們可以與那裡的政府一起做什麼樣的工作，使他們在長期內更具競爭力。

The next question comes from Hassan Ahmed of Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

A nearer-term question around your guidance. First part of the question is, it seems you guys, as I look at segment level guidance, you're guiding to Q1 EBITDA of $1.2 billion. So first part of that question is, is that correct?

關於您的指導的近期問題。問題的第一部分是，你們似乎在看分部級指導時，你們正在指導 12 億美元的第一季度 EBITDA。所以這個問題的第一部分是，這是正確的嗎？

And then part and parcel with that question, it seems that there are 2, $0.05 a pound price hike announcements for polyethylene in the U.S. for January and February. And then, obviously, we've seen these precipitous declines in natural gas prices in Europe. So in this $1.2 billion EBITDA guidance that you guys have given for Q1, how much of those U.S. polyethylene price hikes have you factored in? And how should we think about factoring in for Q1, those declines in nat gas prices in Europe.

然後與這個問題相關的部分是，1 月和 2 月美國似乎有 2 個每磅 0.05 美元的聚乙烯價格上漲公告。然後，很明顯，我們已經看到歐洲天然氣價格急劇下跌。因此，在你們為第一季度給出的 12 億美元 EBITDA 指導中，你們考慮了多少美國聚乙烯價格上漲？我們應該如何考慮第一季度歐洲天然氣價格下跌的因素。

Hassan, good question. Obviously, the outlook -- I would go back to integrated margins and take a look at our outlook and our expectations for integrated margins in the quarter. We think both in the U.S. and in Europe, they'll be up about $0.04 on integrated polyethylene margins.

哈桑，問得好。顯然，前景——我會回到綜合利潤率，看看我們的前景和我們對本季度綜合利潤率的預期。我們認為在美國和歐洲，綜合聚乙烯利潤率將提高約 0.04 美元。

I would say, yes, natural gas costs have come off. We see a fair amount of benefit in that, obviously, from PMC, which is a large energy user. And so that helps in a location like Stade. But we only really are cracking natural gas to any big degree in Terneuzen and some in Tarragona. So it has a little bit more limited effect there. Most of the rest of the economics are naphtha.

我會說，是的，天然氣成本已經下降。顯然，我們從 PMC 那裡看到了相當多的好處，它是一個能源大用戶。因此，這有助於像 Stade 這樣的地方。但我們只是在 Terneuzen 和 Tarragona 進行了大規模的天然氣裂解。所以它在那裡的作用有點有限。其餘大部分經濟學都是石腦油。

I do think prices -- obviously, fourth quarter to first quarter, you've got to remember, we start the quarter with a lower base and then we build up from there. So you're going to have some of that lag effect that bakes into it. That's part of the guidance. And then we also are expecting a little bit of destocking to still continue into the quarter from a volume and operating rate perspective. So those are the big things that went into the guidance. Anything else you want to add, Howard?

我確實認為價格 - 顯然，第四季度到第一季度，你必須記住，我們以較低的基數開始本季度，然後我們從那裡建立起來。因此，您將獲得一些融入其中的滯後效應。這是指南的一部分。然後我們還預計，從數量和開工率的角度來看，一些去庫存仍將持續到本季度。所以這些是指南中的重要內容。霍華德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Jim. And Hassan, thanks for the question. Yes, I would say you got the number right. I mean, it's around [$1.2 billion]. At a high level, there's really 3 moving parts -- we expect Q1 on balance to look pretty much like Q4 with 3 discrete items. So as you know, our licensing business is lumpy. We had a large sale in the fourth quarter of $75 million that will not repeat in Q1. We're dealing with a third-party gas supplier in the Gulf Coast that's still having issues post winter storm Elliott that's impacting our [DIS] business, which is in our Industrial Intermediates segment. That's a $25 million sequential headwind.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。哈桑，謝謝你的提問。是的，我會說你的號碼是對的。我的意思是，大約 [12 億美元]。在高層次上，實際上有 3 個移動部分——我們預計 Q1 總體上看起來與具有 3 個獨立項目的 Q4 非常相似。如您所知，我們的許可業務起伏不定。我們在第四季度進行了 7500 萬美元的大筆銷售，這在第一季度不會重演。我們正在與墨西哥灣沿岸的一家第三方天然氣供應商打交道，該供應商在冬季風暴 Elliott 後仍然存在問題，這影響了我們的 [DIS] 業務，該業務屬於我們的工業中間體部門。這是一個 2500 萬美元的連續逆風。

And then there's a $25 million sequential positive tailwind on lower turnaround expenses. At the enterprise level that's a $50 million tailwind in P&SP, but offset by a $25 million headwind in PM&C, which is the Deer Park asset.

然後是 2500 萬美元的連續積極順風，降低了周轉費用。在企業層面，這是 P&SP 的 5000 萬美元順風，但被 DeerPark 資產 PM&C 的 2500 萬美元逆風所抵消。

The next question comes from P.J. Juvekar of Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar。

Jim, it seems like the European chemical capacity is now the high-cost marginal capacity instead of China. And European capacity will be flexed with demand ups and downs. Would you agree with that statement?

吉姆，歐洲化工產能現在似乎是高成本的邊際產能，而不是中國。歐洲的產能將隨著需求的起伏而變化。你同意這種說法嗎？

And then in polyethylene, as you mentioned, China reopening is positive. Assuming that -- do you expect somewhat of a snapback in polyethylene as a result? Or is it more of a gradual recovery in first half?

然後在聚乙烯方面，正如你提到的，中國重新開放是積極的。假設——您是否預計聚乙烯會因此出現反彈？還是上半年會逐漸復蘇？

Yes, P.J. both good questions. I would say in Europe, I would think about it in 2 ways. First, I would think about the crackers. And I would say from a cracker economic standpoint, yes, on a naphtha basis, they have become incrementally the highest cost on the assets that are able to crack LPGs like Terneuzen and Tarragona and where utility costs are lower like in Spain. They probably are fairly competitive with that Asian situation.

是的，P.J. 都是好問題。我會說在歐洲，我會以兩種方式考慮它。首先，我會考慮餅乾。從裂解經濟的角度來看，是的，在石腦油的基礎上，它們已經逐漸成為能夠裂解液化石油氣（如 Terneuzen 和 Tarragona）以及公用事業成本較低的資產（如西班牙）的最高成本。他們可能在亞洲的情況下具有相當的競爭力。

So we haven't flexed as much up and down in Europe on the cracker operations. They've run at pretty steady rates throughout. We did flex up and down a bit when it got into our II&I business like polyols, polyurethanes, isocyanates in Europe, where the energy cost at Stade and Germany are much, much higher. And so what you would see there is we have some amount of that energy cost, that is very competitive and at a low rate, but then the increment is much higher. So we would run to that competitive rate. And I think that is what still continues to be in the front window and the thing that we have to address with the government.

因此，我們在歐洲的裂解裝置業務上沒有那麼多的上下波動。他們一直以相當穩定的速度運行。當它進入我們的 II&I 業務時，我們確實上下波動了一點，比如歐洲的多元醇、聚氨酯、異氰酸酯，而 Stade 和德國的能源成本要高得多。所以你會看到我們有一定數量的能源成本，這是非常有競爭力的，而且速度很低，但增量要高得多。因此，我們將以具有競爭力的速度運行。我認為這是仍然存在的問題，也是我們必須與政府解決的問題。

I would say on -- second part of the question, remind...

我會說 - 問題的第二部分，提醒......

China, China recovery.

中國，中國復甦。

China. Yes. Look, I think it's going to be positive. We had growth in the fourth quarter in packaging, especially plastics and industrial solutions. The places that were weakest for us were anything related to building and construction, so polyurethanes, construction chemicals, coatings and monomers, although that was fairly even quarter-over-quarter. And then Consumer Solutions because of the, as I mentioned, siloxane prices and also our asset being down there.

中國。是的。看，我認為這將是積極的。第四季度我們在包裝方面取得了增長，尤其是塑料和工業解決方案。對我們來說最薄弱的地方是與建築和建築相關的任何東西，所以聚氨酯、建築化學品、塗料和單體，儘管這幾乎是環比增長。然後是消費者解決方案，因為正如我提到的那樣，矽氧烷價格以及我們的資產都在那裡。

For the year, we had growth in Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Consumer Solutions and Industrial Solutions, pretty good growth. And it was really construction businesses that were the most impacted.

今年，我們在包裝和特種塑料、消費者解決方案和工業解決方案方面取得了增長，增長相當不錯。受影響最大的確實是建築企業。

Construction is 25% of China's economy. It was off 40% last year. I'm certain that the government is going to try to stimulate that and get that going again. I don't know how fast it will happen. But as I mentioned, we're not seeing any big COVID spreads that are unmanageable right now. People are reporting into work and I'm hearing this from other CEOs as well. People reporting into work. Things are moving as expected. So I do expect we're going to see a little bit of positive move from China.

建築業佔中國經濟的25%。去年下降了 40%。我確信政府會嘗試刺激它並讓它再次發生。我不知道它會發生多快。但正如我所提到的，我們目前沒有看到任何無法控制的大 COVID 價差。人們正在上班，我也從其他 CEO 那裡聽到了這一點。人們報告工作。事情正在按預期發展。所以我確實希望我們會看到來自中國的一些積極舉措。

The next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Two-part question. Your local price in Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure was down 1%. Was that a combination of puts and takes, that is, some chemicals were up and some chemicals were down? And can you talk about MDI pricing?

兩部分的問題。你們在工業中間體和基礎設施方面的本地價格下跌了 1%。這是看跌期權的組合，也就是說，一些化學物質上漲，一些化學物質下跌？你能談談 MDI 定價嗎？

And then secondly, for Howard, what kind of working capital benefits do you expect for 2023? Can you -- you have a working capital inflow of $500 million or $1 billion? Can you size that?

其次，對於霍華德，您預計 2023 年將獲得什麼樣的營運資金收益？你能——你有 5 億美元或 10 億美元的營運資金流入嗎？你能尺寸嗎？

Jeff, good questions. On II&I, we actually had higher prices in polyurethanes and construction chemicals and it was volume that was the offset there. And remember, that business has a fairly large footprint in Europe and the input costs are much higher there and so that was part of it.

傑夫，好問題。在 II&I 上，我們實際上有更高的聚氨酯和建築化學品價格，這是抵消了那裡的數量。請記住，該業務在歐洲的足跡相當大，那裡的投入成本要高得多，所以這是其中的一部分。

We also saw that Industrial Solutions pricing held up relatively well. And again, it was volume that slowed. So both of them had very resilient prices but saw some volume slowdown and a little bit of currency impact. I'll let you answer the second part of that, Howard.

我們還看到工業解決方案的定價保持相對良好。再一次，是音量放慢了。因此，它們的價格都非常有彈性，但銷量有所放緩，貨幣影響也很小。我會讓你回答第二部分，霍華德。

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Look, let's start with the fourth quarter on working capital. That was actually a tailwind versus the prior quarter. So sequentially of $1 billion and more than $400 million versus same quarter last year. I would say it really depends on what's going to happen with feedstock costs and revenue growth. We're certainly expecting some volume growth as we move through the year, especially with Jim's comments on China reopening.

是的。謝謝，傑夫。看，讓我們從第四季度的營運資金開始。與上一季度相比，這實際上是順風。因此，與去年同期相比，依次為 10 億美元和超過 4 億美元。我會說這真的取決於原料成本和收入增長的情況。我們當然期待今年的銷量會有所增長，尤其是吉姆對中國重新開放的評論。

And overall, global GDP growth is still expected to be positive of around 1.5%, which should drive some industrial production and should drive some growth. You know that since spin, we've been very focused on working capital. We're continuing to target a couple of days of structural working capital improvement. So I would say, at a bare minimum, we're looking at $200 million to $300 million of working capital improvement 2023 versus 2022.

總體而言，全球 GDP 增長預計仍將保持在 1.5% 左右的正增長，這應該會推動一些工業生產並推動一些增長。你知道自從分拆以來，我們一直非常關注營運資金。我們將繼續以幾天的結構性營運資金改善為目標。所以我想說，至少，我們正在考慮 2023 年與 2022 年相比增加 2 億至 3 億美元的營運資本。

I'm very proud of the Dow team on their focus on cash flow. When you look at what we've been able to do since spin, we have actually improved our cash from ops every single year, 2019 through 2022. And last year was $7.5 billion of cash from ops and $400 million better overall than 2021. And so one of the ways we do that is work on working capital.

我為陶氏團隊對現金流的關注感到非常自豪。當你看看自旋轉以來我們所做的事情時，我們實際上每年都在增加來自運營的現金，從 2019 年到 2022 年。去年來自運營的現金為 75 億美元，比 2021 年多了 4 億美元。而且因此，我們這樣做的方法之一就是增加營運資金。

We're also working on other unique-to-Dow cash flow levers. I estimate that is around -- inclusive of that $200 million to $300 million working capital. We're focused on $1 billion of -- pulling on $1 billion of unique-to-Dow levers. Working capital is certainly one of them. The other one, as you saw in the fourth quarter, we successfully concluded one of the two big Nova litigations that we have. We're hopeful that we can solve the second one -- or resolve the second one in calendar year 2023. That could be another up to as much as $0.5 billion of unique-to-Dow cash that we expect. And then we've got a few other projects that are in the works to round out that $1 billion.

我們還在研究其他獨特的道氏現金流槓桿。我估計這大約是 - 包括 2 億至 3 億美元的營運資金。我們專注於 10 億美元 - 拉動 10 億美元的獨特道指槓桿。營運資金當然是其中之一。另一個，正如你在第四季度看到的那樣，我們成功地結束了我們擁有的兩起大型 Nova 訴訟之一。我們希望我們能夠解決第二個問題——或者在 2023 日曆年解決第二個問題。這可能是我們預期的另一個高達 5 億美元的道指獨有現金。然後我們還有一些其他項目正在進行中，以完成這 10 億美元。

The next question comes from John McNulty of BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 John McNulty。

So it seemed like the destocking was kind of at really accelerated levels in the fourth quarter. Can you give us a little bit of color as to which of the segments do you feel like you're largely through that? And if anything, you may be -- maybe we're even at a balance side or even a restock phase? And I guess tied to that, can you speak to the operating rates you saw in the fourth quarter and how you expect that to change as we look to 1Q?

因此，去庫存似乎在第四季度達到了真正加速的水平。你能給我們一些關於你覺得你主要通過哪些部分的顏色嗎？如果有的話，你可能會 - 也許我們甚至處於平衡狀態甚至是補貨階段？我想與此相關的是，您能否談談您在第四季度看到的開工率，以及您預計在我們展望第一季度時它會如何變化？

Sure. John, Good Question. I would say it accelerated in December. We've made announcement in October that we were going to reduce some operating rates in ethylene, polyethylene because of some logistics constraints and other things that happen. We saw better logistics in December.

當然。約翰，好問題。我會說它在 12 月加速了。我們在 10 月份宣布，由於一些物流限制和其他發生的事情，我們將降低乙烯、聚乙烯的部分開工率。我們在 12 月看到了更好的物流。

December was our best export month of the year for Marine Packed Cargo, so that's positive. But at the same time, manufacturing activity in the last half of December really slowed. And so you could see that in the order pattern. And that stayed relatively slow the first half of January.

12 月是我們一年中海運包裝貨物出口最好的月份，所以這是積極的。但與此同時，12 月下半月的製造業活動確實放緩了。所以你可以在訂單模式中看到這一點。並且在 1 月上半月保持相對緩慢。

I do think we're seeing manufacturing activity come back right now. We're seeing that in the order book. I would not say that we're at a restocking state yet. But I do think as the quarter progresses, we will get there because second and third quarter are typically are our highest volume quarters. And there is not a lot of excess inventory anywhere in the change right now. So I do think it's coming, but it isn't here as we sit here right now today.

我確實認為我們現在看到製造業活動正在恢復。我們在訂單簿中看到了這一點。我不會說我們還處於補貨狀態。但我確實認為隨著季度的進展，我們會到達那裡，因為第二和第三季度通常是我們銷量最高的季度。而且現在變化中的任何地方都沒有很多過剩庫存。所以我確實認為它會來，但它不在這裡，因為我們今天坐在這裡。

The next question comes from Mike Sison of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Mike Sison。

What was the impact from the lower operating rates in the fourth quarter on EBITDA, meaning if you were at normal operating rates, what would that be?

第四季度較低的開工率對 EBITDA 有何影響，這意味著如果您處於正常開工率，那會是什麼？

And then is that impact similar for the first quarter? And when do you think you can see your operating rates sort of improve back to normal rates in '23?

那麼第一季度的影響是否相似？你認為你什麼時候可以看到你的開工率在 23 年恢復到正常水平？

Yes. Just to give you an idea, I would say, probably you saw -- because of destocking, you probably saw a 10% lower operating rate due to destocking. Rough numbers, Howard, where do you think that's around (inaudible) ...

是的。只是為了給你一個想法，我想說，你可能看到了——由於去庫存，你可能看到由於去庫存而降低了 10% 的開工率。粗略的數字，霍華德，你認為它在哪裡（聽不清）......

Yes, I would say 10 percentage points. And that's -- I mean, when you think about every percentage point -- yes, look, I would say it this way, Mike. When you look at the sequential decline in EBITDA, probably 2/3 of that EBITDA drop was because of the destocking. And then the other balance was really the seasonal -- just a seasonal sequential decline because we're a more of a Northern Hemisphere business. And obviously, our coatings business typically is a seasonal low point in the fourth quarter.

是的，我會說 10 個百分點。那就是——我的意思是，當你考慮每一個百分點時——是的，看，我會這樣說，邁克。當您查看 EBITDA 的連續下降時，可能 2/3 的 EBITDA 下降是由於去庫存。然後另一個平衡實際上是季節性的——只是季節性的連續下降，因為我們更像是一個北半球的企業。顯然，我們的塗料業務通常在第四季度處於季節性低點。

The next question comes from [Steve Byrne] of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 [Steve Byrne]。

Yes. That 2,000 headcount reduction, how much of that is these assets in Europe that you're planning to shutter? Or can you highlight what operations, is this commercial or back-office headcount?

是的。裁員 2,000 人，其中有多少是您計劃關閉的歐洲資產？或者你能強調一下是什麼業務，這是商業還是後台人員？

And then just one other quick one. Your partnership with Mura, when that's at scale, and you're using the pyrolysis oil as cracker feedstock, how would you expect the profitability of that versus naphtha or ethane-based feedstock?

然後只是另一個快速的。您與 Mura 的合作夥伴關係，當它達到規模時，並且您使用熱解油作為裂解原料，與石腦油或乙烷原料相比，您如何期望它的盈利能力？

Sure. Steve, good questions. 2,000 headcount reduction is not all specific to Europe, although Europe is a big part of the earnings decline that's driving us to take these actions. The site and asset decisions we've made so far are really smaller locations, smaller scale location where we know they will be challenged through the year. We haven't released a list of those. We're working through that with the European Works Councils, et cetera, but we will be doing that as we get toward the end of this quarter.

當然。史蒂夫，好問題。裁員 2,000 人並不是歐洲特有的，儘管歐洲是導致我們採取這些行動的收入下降的重要組成部分。到目前為止，我們所做的站點和資產決策實際上是較小的位置，規模較小的位置，我們知道它們將在這一年中受到挑戰。我們尚未發布這些列表。我們正在與歐洲工作委員會等機構合作解決這個問題，但我們將在本季度末完成這項工作。

But the $1 billion is really made up of 2 buckets. $500 million is structural cost reductions. That's the headcount reductions, that's productivity via end-to-end process improvement. So we're really building off that digital work we've done, and that would work on improving processes and customer service and then the asset decisions. And then $500 million will just be reduced spending, turnaround spend, which Howard had mentioned, $300 million, leveraging our volume on lower purchased raw materials, logistics and utilities because we do see some supply/demand imbalances and the ability to do that and just tightening the belt to this environment.

但 10 億美元實際上是由 2 個桶組成的。 5 億美元用於結構性成本削減。這就是裁員，這是通過端到端流程改進提高的生產力。因此，我們實際上是在構建我們已經完成的數字化工作，這將有助於改進流程和客戶服務，然後是資產決策。然後 5 億美元將只是減少支出，霍華德提到的周轉支出，3 億美元，利用我們減少購買的原材料、物流和公用事業的數量，因為我們確實看到一些供需失衡以及這樣做的能力，只是勒緊腰帶適應這種環境。

So I would say I don't -- it's not a haircut 5% of the workforce. It will be targeted, and we target around asset decisions, it will be targeted around businesses that need to tighten. It will be targeted around -- it's not just Dow headcount. We will have contractor reductions as well at the sites. And so we'll look at it that way.

所以我會說我不會——這不是 5% 的勞動力理髮。它將是有針對性的，我們將圍繞資產決策，它將圍繞需要收緊的業務。它將針對周圍——不僅僅是道指的員工人數。我們還將在現場減少承包商。所以我們會這樣看。

On Mura, on our transform the waste target, right now, when we talk to you at Investor Day in 2021, the premiums vary by technology. But they continue to be greater than about $1,000 a metric ton. And the supply demand -- the demand is out there right now, and it's in excess of the supply.

在 Mura，關於我們轉變廢物目標，現在，當我們在 2021 年投資者日與您交談時，溢價因技術而異。但它們仍然高於每公噸 1,000 美元左右。供應需求——需求現在就在那裡，而且已經超過了供應。

I think as the supply increases, there will be pressure on that, obviously. But there's a big imbalance right now between what the consumer brand owners want and what's available out there. So I do think you'll see margin expansion in that part of the segment. There will be some higher costs with doing that, but there will -- I think the premiums will more than cover that.

我認為隨著供應的增加，顯然會有壓力。但是，現在消費者品牌所有者想要的東西和現有的東西之間存在很大的不平衡。所以我認為你會看到該部分的利潤率擴張。這樣做會有一些更高的成本，但會有 - 我認為保費將超過覆蓋。

The next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Jim, I'd welcome your thoughts on the supply side of polyethylene. We've seen spot prices start to percolate higher over the last 3 or 4 weeks. So I was wondering if you could comment on where you see downstream inventory levels among converters at this point?

吉姆，我歡迎你對聚乙烯供應方面的想法。我們已經看到現貨價格在過去 3 或 4 週內開始上漲。所以我想知道您是否可以評論一下您目前在何處看到加工商的下游庫存水平？

And also if I rewind to maybe September, we had a lot of purposeful throttling back of operating rates from Dow and others that dovetailed into winter storm Elliott in late December. I think at least one of your competitors has declared force majeure on a tornado of all things. So if we look at that holistically, do you think there's enough supply [disruption] to kind of rebalance the polyethylene market and move higher from here?

而且，如果我倒退到 9 月份，我們有很多有目的的限制開工率，道指和其他公司在 12 月下旬與冬季風暴 Elliott 相吻合。我認為至少您的一個競爭對手已宣布對所有事物的龍捲風造成不可抗力。因此，如果我們從整體上看，您是否認為有足夠的供應 [中斷] 來重新平衡聚乙烯市場並從這裡走高？

Kevin, I think there has been enough, obviously, to give good momentum to these price increases in the first quarter. And so I think we will see the margins expand, as I mentioned earlier on one of the other questions. From a supply side standpoint, it's also worth mentioning that I'm really proud of the team. After winter storm Uri, we took our playbook and we said, how do we -- if this happens again, how do we make sure that we don't have any production losses due to freeze. And we were able to navigate this freeze with winter storm Elliott, and we had no problems with polyethylene plants or crackers.

凱文，我認為很明顯，第一季度的這些價格上漲勢頭已經足夠了。所以我認為我們會看到利潤率擴大，正如我之前在其他問題之一中提到的那樣。從供應方的角度來看，還值得一提的是，我為團隊感到非常自豪。在冬季風暴 Uri 之後，我們拿起了劇本，我們說，如果再次發生這種情況，我們如何確保我們不會因凍結而造成任何生產損失。我們能夠在冬季風暴 Elliott 的嚴寒中度過難關，我們在聚乙烯工廠或裂解裝置方面也沒有遇到任何問題。

And right now, as we sit here, about 37% of the ethylene capacity in the Gulf Coast is still off-line. And so that's advantage to us. And as Howard mentioned, the only issue we've had is with an industrial gas supplier at one of our sites in Louisiana for our Industrial Solutions business. That's been our only blip, and I don't think they did the same kind of work.

而現在，就在我們坐在這裡的時候，墨西哥灣沿岸約 37% 的乙烯產能仍處於停產狀態。這對我們來說是有利的。正如霍華德所提到的，我們遇到的唯一問題是我們在路易斯安那州一個工廠的工業氣體供應商，負責我們的工業解決方案業務。那是我們唯一的曇花一現，我不認為他們做了同樣的工作。

I do think China, to P.J.'s question earlier, China is making an impact. We saw that in December. I think we're going to continue to see that in the first quarter. Inventories there are managed well. Inventories here, 5 consecutive months of reduction in the ACC inventory data. Inventory is 45 days. That's pretty standard inventory levels. And I think everybody, not just converters, but consumers, brand owners, everybody in the value chain at the end of the year was watching inventories and managing cash into a slow end of the year.

對於 P.J. 之前的問題，我確實認為中國正在產生影響。我們在 12 月看到了這一點。我認為我們將在第一季度繼續看到這一點。那裡的庫存管理得很好。庫存方面，ACC 庫存數據連續 5 個月減少。庫存為 45 天。這是相當標準的庫存水平。而且我認為每個人，不僅僅是加工商，還有消費者、品牌所有者，以及價值鏈中的每個人，在年底都在關注庫存和管理現金，直到年底緩慢。

We had a pretty strong end of the year in 2021. And in 2022, we kind of reverted more to the normal slower end of the year dynamics. We do have to keep an eye on capacity coming on. But I would say our outlook for the year is probably about the same amount of capacity off-line as last year. And so if demand kicks back up here and there's some restocking that happens, that will set us up well for second and third quarter.

我們在 2021 年年底表現強勁。而在 2022 年，我們更多地恢復到正常的較慢年底動態。我們確實必須密切關注產能的增長。但我想說，我們對今年的展望可能與去年的下線產能大致相同。因此，如果這裡的需求回升並且發生了一些補貨，那將為我們第二和第三季度做好準備。

I would also just add that another bright spot that we see as we head into 2023 is the improving situation marine pack cargo and the ability to export out of North America. I mean, I can't speak for our peers, but certainly, we certainly have ramped our capability. And so that really should not be a bottleneck at least for the first half of the year. And don't have the visibility in the second half, but certainly as we ramp through, the balance of Q1 into Q2, we should see increased marine pack cargo exports out of the U.S. .

我還要補充一點，我們在進入 2023 年時看到的另一個亮點是海運包裝貨物情況的改善以及從北美出口的能力。我的意思是，我不能代表我們的同行，但可以肯定的是，我們確實提高了我們的能力。因此，至少在今年上半年，這真的不應該成為瓶頸。並且在下半年沒有能見度，但可以肯定的是，隨著我們從第一季度到第二季度的平衡，我們應該會看到美國的海運包裝貨物出口增加。

The next question comes from John Roberts of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

This is Matt Skowronski on for John. Two commodities that Dow participates in, siloxanes and MDI, have had competitor capacity come online recently? You called out weaker pricing in siloxanes in your guide for the first quarter. But can you just talk about how long you expect it to take for pricing these commodities to recover?

我是約翰的馬特·斯科沃倫斯基。陶氏參與的兩大商品矽氧烷和MDI，近期是否有競爭對手產能上線？您在第一季度的指南中指出矽氧烷的定價較低。但您能否談談您預計這些商品的定價需要多長時間才能恢復？

Yes, and thank you for the question. I think we'll see a little bit of demand improvement. But siloxanes prices have fallen to their lowest levels in some time at the end of the year, and so we start the year at those levels. I don't think we're expecting any immediate improvement. The downstream demand still continues to be good.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們會看到一些需求改善。但矽氧烷價格在年底跌至一段時間以來的最低水平，因此我們今年年初處於這些水平。我不認為我們期待任何立即的改善。下游需求依然持續向好。

Building and construction will be the thing that I think will start to tip it to the positive. So if we see a good rebound in building and construction in China, that should start to pull things to the positive and lift things up.

我認為建設將開始向積極方向傾斜。因此，如果我們看到中國建築業出現良好反彈，那應該會開始將事情拉向積極並提升。

North America has been fairly resilient. And North America and Europe are typically slightly higher than the Chinese prices, and that continues to be the same case today. So I -- that's my outlook on siloxanes on.

北美一直相當有彈性。北美和歐洲的價格通常略高於中國的價格，今天仍然如此。所以我——這就是我對矽氧烷的看法。

On MDI, I would say the biggest difference between what's reported in the markets on MDI, in our view, is just what you believe about the RTO timing of some of the Chinese competitions, new plants that are coming online. I think our view is that, that's going to be stretched out over a longer period of time.

在 MDI 方面，我想說的是，在我們看來，MDI 市場報導的最大差異就是您對一些中國競爭的 RTO 時間的看法，以及即將上線的新工廠。我認為我們的觀點是，這將在更長的時間內延長。

Most of what's reported would have all that 4 world-scale MDI facilities coming on in 2023. I don't think that's our view of how that's going to happen. That would be more spread over the 2023 to 2025 time period. And so I think that will take some of that pressure off of MDI.

報導的大部分內容都將在 2023 年啟用所有 4 個世界級 MDI 設施。我認為這不是我們對這將如何發生的看法。這將在 2023 年至 2025 年期間更加分散。所以我認為這會減輕 MDI 的一些壓力。

Downstream demand for MDI and for systems and the application that it goes into is really good. So I don't feel worried about that. That's purely what your assumptions are about -- that our new demand coming -- or new supply coming online and the time frame.

下游對 MDI 及其係統和應用程序的需求非常好。所以我對此並不擔心。這純粹是您的假設——我們的新需求即將到來——或新供應上線以及時間框架。

The next question comes from Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

You have a very helpful slide given all your growth expansions on Slide 10. And obviously, there's been a lot going on regarding the P&SP, as seen the polyethylene side over the last few years. But when we all take a step back, just given all the volatility and the macro headwinds, how should investors now be thinking about normalized earnings that we own, we're thinking about '24 when we're looking out to '25 or even, perhaps, especially in the context of potentially lower NGL prices. Just do you have any updated thoughts on that? .

考慮到幻燈片 10 上所有的增長擴展，你有一張非常有用的幻燈片。顯然，在 P&SP 方面發生了很多事情，正如過去幾年在聚乙烯方面所看到的那樣。但是，當我們都退後一步時，考慮到所有的波動性和宏觀逆風，投資者現在應該如何考慮我們擁有的正常化收益，我們正在考慮 24 年，而我們正在展望 25 年甚至，也許，尤其是在可能降低 NGL 價格的情況下。你對此有什麼最新的想法嗎？ .

Good question, Chris. I would go back -- that -- this is the basis of, obviously, the earnings corridor slide that we put together and we shared last year and at earnings day back in 2021. And so if you look at it, I think we look at the midrange of the kind of the through-the-cycle range as being what we target for the growth. And that's kind of how we report the growth.

問得好，克里斯。我想回去——那——顯然，這是我們放在一起並在去年和 2021 年的收益日分享的收益走廊幻燈片的基礎。所以如果你看一下，我想我們看在整個週期範圍的中間範圍內，這是我們的增長目標。這就是我們報告增長的方式。

And then peak potential would be, when you would see those scenarios like you mentioned with lower NGL prices and high oil prices. Now like we got into with 2021 and the first half of 2022, that was kind of peak levels for plastics.

然後，當您看到像您提到的那些具有較低的 NGL 價格和高油價的情況時，就會達到峰值潛力。現在就像我們進入 2021 年和 2022 年上半年一樣，那是塑料的峰值水平。

I do think the possibility exists that oil price is going to continue to be driving higher because we've had underinvestment in oil production, inventories at the bottom of their 5-year average. And if you started investing in oil production today, it would be 3 to 5 years before you would see any movement in that number. And I do think that any demand pull on that is going to start to move oil prices up and anything speculative that happens will move it up quickly because those inventory levels are so low.

我確實認為油價有可能繼續走高，因為我們對石油生產的投資不足，庫存處於 5 年平均水平的底部。如果您今天開始投資石油生產，則需要 3 到 5 年的時間才能看到該數字的任何變化。而且我確實認為，任何需求拉動都會開始推高油價，而發生的任何投機性事件都會迅速推高油價，因為這些庫存水平非常低。

Meanwhile, NGL production is continuing to grow at a pretty good clip. I think it's going to be up pretty substantially here in the United States this year. And so that keeps costs down on NGLs. And so that's positive.

與此同時，NGL 產量繼續以相當不錯的速度增長。我認為今年在美國這裡會大幅上漲。這樣可以降低 NGL 的成本。所以這是積極的。

So Canada, U.S., Argentina, I feel good about the positions we have there. Obviously, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, we feel good about that. Our cracking in Terneuzen and Spain, I think that's positive. So you've seen the high watermark for plastics, delivered $8 billion of EBITDA which is right in line with what we've got here with peak potential, EBITDA range. And I think we're trying to get in other segments up to that peak potential as well.

所以加拿大、美國、阿根廷，我對我們在那裡的立場感到滿意。顯然，科威特、沙特阿拉伯，我們對此感覺良好。我們在 Terneuzen 和西班牙的分裂，我認為這是積極的。所以你已經看到了塑料的高水位線，交付了 80 億美元的 EBITDA，這與我們在這裡獲得的峰值潛力 EBITDA 範圍是一致的。而且我認為我們也在努力讓其他細分市場達到這一峰值潛力。

So I feel good about where we're going long term, and that's also one of the reasons we wanted to make the investment in Canada -- if all the conditions are right, we want to make that investment to continue to leverage that position.

因此，我對我們的長期發展方向感到滿意，這也是我們想在加拿大投資的原因之一——如果所有條件都合適，我們希望進行這項投資以繼續利用這一地位。

Hard to say what's going to happen with all that energy policy, plays a big part in it. I think the one thing that governments aren't correctly addressing is that all the things we've passed for IRA, for new alternative technologies, that's all great. We're very supportive. It's a fantastic package. We also need some support for conventional oil and gas production because we are going to need a reliable power, and natural gas is going to provide the low-carbon reliable power for the foreseeable, near future.

很難說所有能源政策會發生什麼，在其中起著重要作用。我認為政府沒有正確解決的一件事是，我們為 IRA、新的替代技術通過的所有事情都很棒。我們非常支持。這是一個很棒的包。我們還需要對常規石油和天然氣生產提供一些支持，因為我們將需要可靠的電力，而天然氣將在可預見的不久的將來提供低碳的可靠電力。

I would also just say that, I mean, when you think about that earnings corridor of 6% to 12% and then moving to the middle of the decade into the $7 billion to $13 billion range with all the CapEx and OpEx investments we're making, if you just want to look at the mathematical average, right now, that's about a $9 billion normalized through the cycle. And then by the middle of the decade, that should be in the $10 billion range by the middle of -- in terms of the mathematical average in a normalized view by the middle of the decade.

我還要說的是，我的意思是，當你考慮 6% 到 12% 的收益走廊，然後到本世紀中期進入 70 億到 130 億美元的範圍時，我們所有的資本支出和運營支出投資如果你現在只想看看數學平均值，那麼整個週期標準化後的收入約為 90 億美元。然後到本世紀中期，到本世紀中期，這應該在 100 億美元的範圍內——根據本世紀中期的標準化觀點的數學平均值。

Thank you. The next question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

And Howard, thank you so much for giving us the mathematical average for 6% to 12% and $7 billion to $13 billion, I was having difficulty crunching that number. I want to come back to the cost savings, the $1 billion. You mentioned that in the first quarter, you can take a charge of $550 million plus. And I was wondering how much of that is cash versus noncash?

霍華德，非常感謝你為我們提供了 6% 到 12% 和 70 億到 130 億美元的數學平均值，我在計算這個數字時遇到了困難。我想回到節省的成本上，即 10 億美元。你提到在第一季度，你可以收取 5.5 億美元以上的費用。我想知道其中有多少是現金和非現金？

And then also on that slide, you mentioned that you're going to be reducing turnaround spending in '23 versus '22. And I'm curious if you could order -- give us an order of magnitude there? And does that suggest perhaps that 2024 will see an above average spend on turnarounds?

然後在那張幻燈片上，你提到你將在 23 年和 22 年減少周轉支出。我很好奇你是否可以訂購——給我們一個數量級？這是否表明 2024 年的轉型支出可能高於平均水平？

Howard, do you want to take it?

霍華德，你要接受嗎？

Yes. Yes, Frank, you're welcome. I just -- that really -- my answer on the previous question was really targeted, all The Nets and The Jets fans out there. I just want to let you know that, make sure that you can do that math. Just a joke.

是的。是的，弗蘭克，不客氣。我只是——真的——我對上一個問題的回答真的很有針對性，所有籃網隊和噴氣機隊的球迷都在那裡。我只是想讓你知道，確保你可以做那個數學。只是開個玩笑。

Look, the $1 billion as we look at the end of the year run rate exiting into 2024, that $1 billion should become about $1.4 billion. We haven't set the turnaround budget for 2024 yet, obviously. But I could imagine, if we just revert to a normalized turnaround and that could be -- the turnarounds could be potentially $150 million or maybe $200 million higher in 2024 than 2023, if we do 1 more cracker turnaround. So that would be the order of magnitude that I would expect. But still improving. Overall, the cost improving versus 2023.

看，當我們查看到 2024 年年底運行率時的 10 億美元，這 10 億美元應該變成大約 14 億美元。顯然，我們還沒有設定 2024 年的周轉預算。但我可以想像，如果我們只是恢復到正常化的周轉，那可能是——如果我們再進行 1 次餅乾周轉，那麼 2024 年的周轉可能比 2023 年高出 1.5 億美元或 2 億美元。所以這將是我期望的數量級。但仍在改進。總體而言，與 2023 年相比，成本有所改善。

And how much was the cash charge on that?

現金費用是多少？

Oh, the cash -- we expect the cash outlay over the course of 2023 and 2024 to be roughly $800 million to $1 billion, in that range, about half this year probably and then the balance -- the other half in 2024.

哦，現金——我們預計 2023 年和 2024 年期間的現金支出約為 8 億至 10 億美元，在這個範圍內，今年可能大約一半，然後是餘額——2024 年的另一半。

I think that's all the time we have for today. The -- for your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on Dow's website within approximately 48 hours. This concludes our call. Thanks, everyone, for your time this morning.

我想這就是我們今天的全部時間。 -- 供您參考，我們的成績單副本將在大約 48 小時內發佈在陶氏的網站上。我們的通話到此結束。謝謝大家今天早上的時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。