Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to Douglas Elliman's first-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. An archived version of the webcast will be available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website located at investors.elliman.com for one year.

美好的一天，歡迎參加道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。此次通話正在錄音並同時進行網路直播。此網路廣播的存檔版本將在該公司網站的投資者關係部分（位於investors.elliman.com）上提供，為期一年。

During this call, the terms adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income will be used. These terms are non-GAAP financial measures and should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for other measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss are contained in the company's earnings release, which has been posted to the investor relations section of the company's website.

在本次電話會議中，將使用調整後 EBITDA 和調整後淨收入術語。這些術語是非公認會計準則財務衡量標準，應作為根據公認會計準則制定的其他財務績效衡量標準的補充，但不能取代這些衡量標準。調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨虧損的調節表包含在公司的收益報告中，該報告已發佈在公司網站的投資者關係部分。

Before the call begins, I would like to read the Safe Harbor statement. The statements made during this conference call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in or implied by forward-looking statements. These risks are described in more detail in the company's Security and Exchange Commission filings.

在通話開始之前，我想閱讀安全港聲明。本次電話會議期間所做的非歷史事實的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中闡述或暗示的結果有重大差異。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中更詳細地描述了這些風險。

Now I would like to turn the call over to the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Douglas Elliman, Howard Lorber. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 董事長、總裁兼執行長霍華德·洛伯 (Howard Lorber)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Richard Lampen, our Chief Operating Officer; Bryant Kirkland, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Durkin, President and CEO of Douglas Elliman Realty, our residential real estate brokerage business.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的有我們的營運長理查‧蘭彭 (Richard Lampen)；布萊恩特‧柯克蘭 (Bryant Kirkland)，我們的財務長；德金 (Scott Durkin)，Douglas Elliman Realty（我們的住宅房地產經紀業務）總裁兼執行長。

On today's call, we will discuss the current operating environment and Douglas Elliman's financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2024. All numbers presented this morning will be as of March 31, 2024, unless otherwise stated. We will then provide closing comments and open the call for questions.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論當前的營運環境以及道格拉斯艾麗曼公司截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的三個月的財務表現。除非另有說明，今天早上提供的所有數據均截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日。然後我們將提供結束語並開始提問。

Before I turn to our first-quarter 2024 results, I want to begin with an update on industry brokerage commission litigation. We are pleased to have recently announced a settlement agreement to resolve on a nationwide basis the pending class action litigation relating to real estate brokerage fees in the Gibson and Umpa cases pending in the western district of Missouri, which will also resolve other similar pending litigation. The settlement agreement reflects our commitment to mitigating future uncertainties and limiting legal costs. It is not an admission of liability or of the validity of any claim.

在討論 2024 年第一季業績之前，我想先介紹一下業界經紀佣金訴訟的最新情況。我們很高興最近宣布了一項和解協議，以在全國範圍內解決與密蘇裡州西區懸而未決的吉布森和烏姆帕案件中的房地產經紀費相關的未決集體訴訟，該協議也將解決其他類似的未決訴訟。和解協議反映了我們對減輕未來不確定性和限制法律成本的承諾。這並不表示承認責任或任何索賠的有效性。

Now we will discuss our outlook on the current operating environment for Douglas Elliman, as well as trends we are seeing in residential real estate. As we have discussed, generationally high interest rates have driven sustained listing inventory shortages across our luxury markets for almost two years. These shortages have resulted in significantly lower transaction volumes during this time. While we expect these industry-wide challenges will continue to impact our results in 2024. We remain encouraged by recent improvements.

現在我們將討論對道格拉斯艾麗曼公司當前營運環境的展望，以及我們在住宅房地產領域看到的趨勢。正如我們所討論的，近兩年來，代代相傳的高利率導致奢侈品市場持續出現房源庫存短缺。這些短缺導致這段時間內的交易量大幅下降。我們預計這些全行業的挑戰將繼續影響我們 2024 年的業績。我們仍然對最近的改進感到鼓舞。

First, although our commission receipts were down in March compared to the prior year, they were up from the prior year in January, February, and April 2024. This continues the trend that began in October 2023. We believe this signals that the market is in the early stages of adjusting to higher interest rates.

首先，儘管我們 3 月份的佣金收入較去年同期有所下降，但 2024 年 1 月、2 月和 4 月的佣金收入卻較去年同期有所增加。這延續了 2023 年 10 月開始的趨勢。我們認為這表明市場正處於適應更高利率的早期階段。

Second, we are also seeing promising momentum in our development marketing business, a platform that further differentiates Douglas Elliman from our principal competitors. As a reminder, through its development marketing division, Douglas Elliman employs a hybrid broker model, where our top resale residential real estate agents work in tandem with our development marketing professionals and leverage their extensive industry relationships for the benefit of our developer clients.

其次，我們也看到了我們的開發行銷業務的良好勢頭，該平台進一步將道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 與我們的主要競爭對手區分開來。需要提醒的是，道格拉斯·艾麗曼透過其開發行銷部門採用混合經紀人模式，我們的頂級轉售住宅房地產經紀人與我們的開發行銷專業人員合作，並利用他們廣泛的行業關係為我們的開發商客戶帶來利益。

Our agents can market and sell high-profile developments that enhance their brands and provide additional commission potential for years to come, as they are often hired to resell or rent those very same units. We believe this model provides a competitive advantage to our development and marketing business, while also increasing the attractiveness of the Douglas Elliman platform to current and prospective agents.

我們的代理商可以行銷和銷售備受矚目的開發項目，從而提升他們的品牌，並在未來幾年提供額外的佣金潛力，因為他們經常被雇用來轉售或出租這些相同的單位。我們相信，這種模式為我們的開發和行銷業務提供了競爭優勢，同時也增加了道格拉斯艾麗曼平台對現有和潛在代理商的吸引力。

Our development marketing division is sought after by well-known real estate developers and continues to create a foundation for long-term value over the next several years. This division has an active pipeline of signed and new projects of approximately $25 billion gross transaction value, including approximately $15 billion of gross transaction value in Florida alone. Further, approximately $5 billion of additional transaction value from our development marketing business is scheduled to come to market in the next year. We believe this bodes well for the future as we will recognize commission income from these projects when they close in the future.

我們的開發行銷部門受到知名房地產開發商的追捧，並在未來幾年繼續為長期價值奠定基礎。該部門擁有活躍的已簽約項目和新項目，交易總額約為 250 億美元，其中僅佛羅裡達州的交易總額就約為 150 億美元。此外，我們的開發行銷業務預計明年將帶來約 50 億美元的額外交易價值。我們相信這對未來來說是個好兆頭，因為我們將在這些項目將來結束時確認這些項目的佣金收入。

Third, consistent with the trend we saw in the fourth quarter of 2023, total listing volume improved in the first quarter of 2024, up 6.7% from the 2023 first quarter, with gains in listings reported in California, the Hamptons, Florida, and Long Island, compared to the first quarter of 2023. This followed a 25% increase in total listing volume in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Because we recognize revenues when a sale closes, we expect that we will begin to see the impact of increased listing value in the second-half of 2024.

第三，與我們在2023 年第四季看到的趨勢一致，2024 年第一季的掛牌總量有所改善，比2023 年第一季成長了6.7%，其中加州、漢普頓斯、佛羅裡達州和朗市的掛牌量增加島嶼，與 2023 年第一季相比。與 2022 年第四季相比，2023 年第四季的掛牌總量增加了 25%。由於我們在銷售結束時確認收入，因此預計我們將在 2024 年下半年開始看到上市價值增加的影響。

Consistent with the increase in listings, our average sales price per transaction remained in industry best $1.595 million in the first quarter. Over the past three quarters, this remained flat and was $1.58 million for the first quarter of 2023. We believe the consistency and average price per transaction reflects the strength of the luxury markets we operate in, as well as Douglas Elliman's reputation for offering the finest properties and client experience in real estate.

與掛牌量的增加一致，我們第一季每筆交易的平均銷售價格仍保持在業界最高水準 159.5 萬美元。在過去的三個季度中，這一數字保持平穩，2023 年第一季為 158 萬美元。我們相信，每筆交易的一致性和平均價格反映了我們所經營的奢侈品市場的實力，以及道格拉斯艾麗曼在房地產領域提供最佳的房產和客戶體驗的聲譽。

Finally, our cost reduction efforts have been judicious, and the results of our strategy are beginning to flow to the bottom line. Over the past year, we have continued to adjust our cost structure to better fit our business including additional headcount reductions, cutting costly sponsorships, streamlining advertising, and commencing a program to consolidate office space.

最後，我們在降低成本方面做出了明智的努力，我們的策略成果也開始體現在利潤上。在過去的一年裡，我們繼續調整成本結構，以更好地適應我們的業務，包括額外裁員、削減昂貴的贊助、精簡廣告以及啟動整合辦公空間的計劃。

Our real estate brokerage segment reduced its operating expenses, including commission expenses, litigation settlement expenses, restructuring and other non-cash expenses by $5.4 million in the first quarter of 2024, representing a decline of approximately 7.6%, compared to the prior-year period. Over the last 12 months ended March 31, 2024, our real estate brokerage segment has reduced its operating expenses, excluding commission expenses, litigation settlement expenses, restructuring, and other non-cash expenses by $18.9 million, or 6.6%.

我們的房地產經紀部門在 2024 年第一季減少了營運費用，包括佣金費用、訴訟和解費用、重組和其他非現金費用，減少了 540 萬美元，年減約 7.6% 。截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的過去 12 個月中，我們的房地產經紀部門的營運費用（不包括佣金費用、訴訟和解費用、重組和其他非現金費用）減少了 1,890 萬美元，即 6.6%。

We believe these efforts enabled Douglas Elliman to meet industry challenges head on without significantly impacting the aging experience. We are proud to share that our agent retention rate stands at 90%, and we continue to attract the industry's best talent.

我們相信，這些努力使 Douglas Elliman 能夠直面產業挑戰，同時不會對老化體驗產生重大影響。我們很自豪地告訴大家，我們的代理商保留率高達 90%，我們不斷吸引業界最優秀的人才。

Now turning to Douglas Elliman's financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2024. For the first quarter of 2024, Douglas Elliman reported $200.2 million in revenue compared to $214 million in the first quarter of 2023. Net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman for the first quarter was $41.5 million or $0.50 per diluted share, compared to $17.6 million or $0.22 per diluted share in the 2023 period.

現在轉向 Douglas Elliman 截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日止三個月的財務業績。道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 報告 2024 年第一季的收入為 2.002 億美元，而 2023 年第一季的收入為 2.14 億美元。道格拉斯艾麗曼公司第一季的淨虧損為 4,150 萬美元，即稀釋後每股 0.50 美元，而 2023 年期間的淨虧損為 1,760 萬美元，即稀釋後每股 0.22 美元。

Net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman in the first quarter of 2024 included a $17.75 million litigation settlement charge of which we have agreed to pay $7.75 million by June 12, 2024, and up to two additional $5 million contingent payments between December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2027.

道格拉斯艾麗曼公司在2024 年第一季的淨虧損包括1,775 萬美元的訴訟和解費用，我們已同意在2024 年6 月12 日之前支付其中的775 萬美元，以及在2025 年12 月31 日至12 月期間額外支付兩筆500 萬美元的或有付款2027 年 31 日。

Adjusted EBITDA attributed to Douglas Elliman in the first quarter were a loss of $18.2 million, compared to $17.6 million in the 2023 period. For comparison purposes, our real estate brokerage segment reported an operating loss of $32.8 million this quarter, compared to $17.3 million in the 2023 period, which included the $17.75 million litigation settlement charge in the 2024 period.

道格拉斯·艾麗曼第一季調整後 EBITDA 虧損 1,820 萬美元，而 2023 年同期虧損 1,760 萬美元。出於比較目的，我們的房地產經紀部門本季的營運虧損為 3,280 萬美元，而 2023 年期間的營運虧損為 1,730 萬美元，其中包括 2024 年期間的 1,775 萬美元的訴訟和解費用。

Adjusted EBITDA attributed to the segment were a loss of $14.2 million compared to $13 million in the 2023 period. Adjusted net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman in the first quarter was $23.7 million, or $0.28 per share, compared to $16.8 million, or $0.21 per share in the 2023 period. Douglas Elliman has maintained ample liquidity with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $91.5 million or $1 per common share and no debt.

該部門的調整後 EBITDA 虧損 1,420 萬美元，而 2023 年期間虧損 1,300 萬美元。第一季道格拉斯艾麗曼公司調整後淨虧損為 2,370 萬美元，每股 0.28 美元，而 2023 年期間為 1,680 萬美元，即每股 0.21 美元。道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 保持著充足的流動性，現金和現金等價物約為 9,150 萬美元，即每股普通股 1 美元，無債務。

In summary, despite industry-wide headwinds, we are confident that Douglas Elliman is positioned for long-term success with its differentiated platform, continued cost reduction efforts, and strong luxury brand. Our proven management team has a successful history of navigating many economic cycles and applying financial discipline that balances the importance of maintaining revenues and managing operating expenses to create long-term stockholder value.

總而言之，儘管面臨全行業的阻力，但我們相信道格拉斯·艾麗曼憑藉其差異化平台、持續降低成本的努力和強大的奢侈品牌，能夠取得長期成功。我們久經考驗的管理團隊擁有駕馭多個經濟週期和應用財務紀律的成功歷史，平衡了維持收入和管理營運費用的重要性，以創造長期股東價值。

Looking ahead, in addition to driving operational efficiencies, we are focused on strategic market expansion, continued recruitment of outstanding talent, and further adoption of innovative solutions to empower our brokers.

展望未來，除了提高營運效率外，我們還專注於策略性市場擴張、持續招募優秀人才以及進一步採用創新解決方案來增強我們經紀商的能力。

With that, we'll be happy to answer questions. Operator?

這樣，我們將很樂意回答問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

（操作員說明）Soham Bhonsle，BTIG。

Look, so I know it's a tough market out there, especially with rates and just being so volatile and inventory being so tight. But look, we could be here for a while just depending on where inflation ends up and how the Fed reacts. So can you maybe just talk about your desire to get the business to break even or even modest profitability if we sort of hang around these levels for a little longer?

聽著，所以我知道這是一個艱難的市場，特別是在利率如此波動且庫存如此緊張的情況下。但看，我們可能會在這裡待一段時間，這取決於通膨的最終結果以及聯準會的反應。那麼，如果我們在這些水平上停留更長時間，您是否可以談談您希望讓業務實現收支平衡，甚至實現適度盈利的願望？

Well, that's what we're doing in our cost cutting. We're not going to sit here and just keep it the way it is now and hope that the market changes quicker than it may or may not. We're also trying to do it judiciously, not doing everything at once, and spreading it out, and also making sure that we're not affecting the experience, our customers' experience, obviously our customers to us are our brokers. So that's really what we're working on.

嗯，這就是我們在削減成本方面所做的事情。我們不會坐在這裡，保持現狀，希望市場變化得比它可能或可能不會更快。我們也試圖明智地做到這一點，不是一次做所有事情，而是將其分散開來，並確保我們不會影響體驗，我們客戶的體驗，顯然我們的客戶就是我們的經紀人。這就是我們正在努力的事情。

Okay, and then Bryant, I guess on expenses, can you maybe just talk about how we should think about the run rate for the various OpEx lines as we go through the year and any items that we should be thinking about?

好的，然後布萊恩特，我想在費用方面，您能否談談我們在這一年中應該如何考慮各種運營支出線的運行率以及我們應該考慮的任何項目？

Well, I mean, as you know, this is a seasonal business at times, so expenses move from quarter to quarter in a different way. However, we have cut expenses $18.9 million over the last 12 months, about $3 million of that was advertising. The majority of the remainder was in personnel and sponsorships and travel. We're continuing to look at that. We did eliminate 100 positions in 2023. We're continuing to look at ways to deliver excellent customer service to our agents more efficiently. And we'll be updating you that in future quarters.

嗯，我的意思是，正如您所知，這有時是季節性業務，因此每個季度的支出以不同的方式變化。然而，我們在過去 12 個月裡削減了 1,890 萬美元的開支，其中約 300 萬美元用於廣告。其餘大部分用於人員、贊助和旅行。我們正在繼續關注這一點。2023 年我們確實裁減了 100 個職位。我們正在繼續尋找更有效地為我們的代理商提供優質客戶服務的方法。我們將在未來幾季向您通報最新情況。

Okay, and then if I could just squeeze one more in. It looks like -- I just have to look at unit share this quarter, at least on a national basis. It was down, but I know you guys aren't in all the markets across the country, so can you maybe just talk about your share in some of your core markets like New York, Florida, and California, and any other trends we should be thinking about?

好吧，如果我能再擠進去一個就好了。看起來——我只需要看看本季度的單位份額，至少在全國範圍內。它下降了，但我知道你們並不遍布全國所有市場，所以你們能否談談你們在紐約、佛羅裡達和加州等一些核心市場的份額，以及我們應該討論的任何其他趨勢正在思考？

Well, look, our market share in New York was down, I think, a small amount. Florida has been very strong, and that's basically because of our new development business. It's amazing how its transition from the best new development marketing revenue for us was always from New York and now it's Florida, substantially above what's going on in New York on new development. So California is really very little new development. It has never really been a great place for high-rise construction.

嗯，看，我認為我們在紐約的市場份額下降了一點。佛羅裡達州一直非常強勁，基本上是因為我們的新開發業務。令人驚訝的是，對我們來說，最好的新開發案行銷收入一直來自紐約，現在是佛羅裡達州，遠高於紐約新開發案的情況。所以加州確實很少有新開發案。它從來都不是一個真正適合高層建築的地方。

My own view of that is that the problem really is, usually when people are going from a house to a condo, they want to bank some money. They want to sell their house for, let's say, $10 million and buy something for $5 million. The problem is the new construction there, you're going to sell your house for $10 million, and you're going have to spend $15 million to get something you live in. So that's not a great market. So we really now are really concentrating on the new dev business in Texas.

我自己的看法是，問題確實在於，通常當人們從獨立屋搬到公寓時，他們想要存一些錢。比如說，他們想以 1000 萬美元的價格出售自己的房子，並以 500 萬美元的價格購買一些東西。問題是那裡的新建築，你將以 1000 萬美元的價格出售你的房子，你將不得不花費 1500 萬美元才能獲得你居住的東西。所以這不是一個很大的市場。所以我們現在真的非常專注於德克薩斯州的新開發業務。

Texas is a good place for new development. Also Las Vegas, we have a couple of projects there. We just opened in the last couple of years. So we think we're in good spots as it relates to where we are in the country.

德克薩斯州是一個新發展的好地方。還有拉斯維加斯，我們在那裡有幾個項目。我們是最近幾年才開業的。因此，我們認為我們處於有利位置，因為這與我們在該國的位置有關。

Yeah, if you look at our proportion of revenues, the Southern and Western regions, which is Florida, Nevada, California, Texas, went from about 50.5% of revenues if you build existing home sales to 54% of existing home sales for the three-month period if you look at the year-over-year period. That actually would be consistent with the fact that mortgage rates dipped in the fourth quarter, and those markets are less -- those markets are more mortgage-rate sensitive than the New York market, which is primarily cash buyers.

是的，如果你看看我們的收入比例，南部和西部地區，即佛羅裡達州、內華達州、加利福尼亞州、德克薩斯州，從這三個地區現有房屋銷售收入的約50.5% 增加到現有房屋銷售收入的54% - 如果您查看同比期間，則為月期間。這實際上與抵押貸款利率在第四季度下降的事實是一致的，而且這些市場的規模較小——這些市場比主要是現金買家的紐約市場對抵押貸款利率更敏感。

Yeah, and then if I could just one more, Bryant. On the commission split 79%, it has trended up a little higher. So what should we expect going forward? Maybe just talk about some of the trends within that number, some of the drivers?

是的，如果我還能再來一次的話，布萊恩特。佣金比例為 79%，略有上升。那我們未來該期待什麼呢？也許只是談談這個數字中的一些趨勢，一些驅動因素？

So that's a great question. We are watching commission splits very closely as we do all expenses. It is an effort that management is watching very closely. Now, if you have to look at us, we're different than some of our national competitors because of our limited number of markets. So our -- the three buckets that impact commission splits for us are new development, which is by far our highest margin. New York and Long Island, which are higher margins than Florida and California.

這是一個很好的問題。正如我們處理所有費用一樣，我們非常密切地關注佣金分配。管理層正在密切關注這項努力。現在，如果您必須看看我們，您會發現我們與一些國內競爭對手有所不同，因為我們的市場數量有限。因此，影響我們佣金分配的三個部分是新開發項目，這是迄今為止我們最高的利潤率。紐約和長島的利潤率高於佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州。

What happened this quarter was, there was 189 basis point decline in gross margin. And that was driven by a 45% shift in the mix that I mentioned earlier in existing home sales in Florida and California going from 50% of our revenues from existing homes to 54%. And then in addition to that, because as you know, we only recognize revenues on development marketing when the earnings process is complete or when a home sells.

本季發生的情況是，毛利率下降了 189 個基點。這是由我之前提到的佛羅裡達州和加州現房銷售組合發生 45% 的轉變所推動的，從我們收入的 50% 來自現房到 54%。除此之外，因為如您所知，我們只有在獲利過程完成或房屋出售時才確認開發行銷收入。

We're in a period where we're not recognizing significant revenues, because we're bringing in significant cash from deposits. But the things that would normally be closing now were things that began construction in 2020 and '21 where the whole country was closed during that time. So that would be other impact on a commission's list that was about a 145 basis points.

我們正處於一個無法確認大量收入的時期，因為我們從存款中獲得了大量現金。但現在通常要關閉的項目是 2020 年和 21 年開始建造的項目，當時整個國家都關閉了。因此，這將對委員會的清單產生約 145 個基點的其他影響。

Now the bottom line is this when we look at region to region, the commission splits were consistent from 2023 first quarter to 2024 first quarter. So we're not seeing any competitive pressures in that.

現在的底線是，當我們查看各個地區時，從 2023 年第一季到 2024 年第一季的佣金分配是一致的。因此，我們沒有看到任何競爭壓力。

Peter Abramowitz, Jefferies.

彼得·阿布拉莫維茨，杰弗里斯。

Yeah, so I just want to go back to some comments. I think you said total listings were up year over year versus the first quarter of '23. So I just want to unpack that. Does that kind of imply that even though total listings were up, your transaction volume still down pretty significantly? Does that just imply that total like, kind of, decision making from buyers and sellers is happening a little bit more slowly? I just want to kind of get a little more context and understanding of the dynamic there?

是的，所以我只想回到一些評論。我想你說過，與 23 年第一季相比，掛牌總數較去年同期成長。所以我只想解開它。這是否意味著儘管掛牌總數增加，但您的交易量仍然大幅下降？這是否意味著買家和賣家的決策速度有點慢？我只是想了解更多背景資訊並了解那裡的動態？

Yeah, I think that the listings may be up, but what happens is that the buyers -- you have sort of a lack of buyers because someone that's going to buy today generally has something to sell. So they're stuck. It's a quandary because they can buy something and pay a higher rate. And then what they're going to sell probably has a lower rate on it, because they've owned it for a while. And that sort of puts a damper on their thinking and the process of whether they should move or not move.

是的，我認為掛牌量可能會增加，但買家的情況是——你有點缺乏買家，因為今天要買的人通常都有東西要賣。所以他們被困住了。這是一個進退兩難的局面，因為他們可以買東西並支付更高的價格。然後他們要出售的東西的價格可能會較低，因為他們已經擁有它一段時間了。這在某種程度上阻礙了他們的思考以及他們是否應該搬家的過程。

And we are more immune to that pressure than some of our competitors because we have such a high percentage of ourselves are ultra lottery and cash. However, what I think you're seeing is with the 25% increase in the fourth quarter and the 7% increase in the first quarter, you're now starting to see the markets are loosening up. People didn't have to do anything for two years after 2021 when mortgage rates were at historical lows and then went to generational highs as we know.

與我們的一些競爭對手相比，我們更能免受這種壓力的影響，因為我們有很高的比例是超級彩票和現金。然而，我認為您看到的是，隨著第四季度 25% 的增長和第一季 7% 的增長，您現在開始看到市場正在放鬆。2021 年之後的兩年裡，人們不需要做任何事情，當時抵押貸款利率處於歷史低點，然後又升至我們所知的世代高點。

Now we're seeing people have reasons to move and they're going to list their homes and that's going to create more volume for us in the future. Our average sales price continues to be very strong at almost $1.6 million per home. So we have a lot of competitive advantages in this area.

現在我們看到人們有理由搬家，他們將列出自己的房屋，這將為我們未來創造更多的交易量。我們的平均銷售價格仍然非常強勁，每套房屋近 160 萬美元。所以我們在這個領域有很多競爭優勢。

Okay, that's helpful. Do you have a breakdown of what percentage of the buyers within transactions that you're involved in? Are all cash versus using financing?

好的，這很有幫助。您是否詳細了解您參與的交易中買家的百分比？都是現金還是使用融資？

That's more difficult to say because many times people will make a cash offer and actually use financing when interest rates are low. But in New York, it's clearly still a significant percentage and also in the ultra-lottery in Florida because you have just a different character of buyer.

這很難說，因為很多時候人們會提出現金報價，並在利率較低時實際使用融資。但在紐約，這顯然仍然是一個很大的比例，在佛羅裡達州的超級彩票中也是如此，因為買家的個性不同。

Yeah, in these markets, in the high-end markets, you don't have people making offers subject to mortgage contingencies. Because the seller doesn't want to see that, doesn't want to hear about that, okay? Because that's troublesome. So we really don't have an idea. And I agree with what BK is saying, is that many people just don't just say make an all cash offer, but then they're financing it outside of that.

是的，在這些市場，在高端市場，沒有人提供受抵押貸款意外影響的報價。因為賣家不想看到這個，不想聽到這個，好嗎？因為這樣很麻煩。所以我們真的沒有想法。我同意 BK 所說的，很多人不只是說提出全額現金報價，但他們會在這之外進行融資。

Right.

正確的。

Got it. And then last one for me I know you're still working on some of these operational improvements and improving the cost structure. I guess just trying to think about the timing and trajectory of when you can kind of get the brokerage segment back to breakeven positive territory from an EBITDA perspective? Is it kind of a trajectory of rates? Is it an absolute level of transaction volume that you need to see? And I guess just any comments around possible timing of when you expect that to happen?

知道了。最後一項對我來說，我知道你們仍在致力於其中一些營運改善和改善成本結構。我想只是想一下，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，什麼時候能讓經紀業務回到損益兩平正值區域？這是一種利率軌跡嗎？您需要查看的是交易量的絕對水準嗎？我想您對這種情況發生的可能時間有什麼評論嗎？

Well, look, the quicker rates go down is going to really prove what the -- how fast it's going to happen. But we don't look at it that way, because what if they stay where they are now or go up or go down a drop, that may not be that meaningful. We just have to focus on getting the business to make money for the shareholders and not wait and worry about where the volume is at any particular point.

好吧，看，利率下降得更快將真正證明它會以多快的速度發生。但我們不這麼看，因為如果它們停留在現在的位置，或上升或下降，那可能就沒那麼有意義了。我們只需專注於讓業務為股東賺錢，而不是等待並擔心任何特定點的交易量。

So I think that, that's what we're really, it's really much more of a -- it's not guesswork, but because one way or another, it's going to happen. But we want to keep trimming down the business until we really can't trim anymore. And we're starting, we started a new series of cuts and we're happy about that. And we're going to continue doing that into the foreseeable future.

所以我認為，這就是我們真正的樣子，它實際上更多的是——這不是猜測，而是因為無論如何，它都會發生。但我們希望繼續削減業務，直到我們真的無法再削減為止。我們正在開始，我們開始了一系列新的削減，我們對此感到高興。在可預見的未來，我們將繼續這樣做。

You know, with our strong balance sheet, we do have time to do this right. We're not going to be under pressure from debt covenants or from historical losses, because of our strong balance sheet, so…

你知道，憑藉我們強大的資產負債表，我們確實有時間做好這件事。由於我們強大的資產負債表，我們不會承受債務契約或歷史損失的壓力，所以…

Right. I guess just one more as a follow-up then to Howard's comments. I mean, in terms then of what rates mean for transaction volume, say they are stable, but high on an absolute level, do you think that stability would be enough to kind of see the market start to loosen up or do you think rates need to be going down for that to happen?

正確的。我想，作為霍華德評論的後續行動，我想再講一個。我的意思是，就利率對交易量的意義而言，假設它們是穩定的，但絕對水平很高，您認為穩定性足以看到市場開始放鬆，還是您認為利率需要為了實現這一點而下降？

I think people are used to these rates, starting to get used to these rates already and no one really trusts what anyone else says. You know, what would they say, six or seven cuts? They were saying six or seven cuts this year and that was maybe three, four months ago. Now all of a sudden it's no cuts then someone starts talking about, there may be being one cut.

我認為人們已經習慣了這些利率，已經開始習慣這些利率，沒有人真正相信其他人所說的話。你知道，他們會怎麼說，六次或七次削減？他們說今年有六到七次削減，那可能是三、四個月前的事了。現在突然之間就沒有削減了，然後有人開始談論，可能會被削減。

So I don't think you could run, I know for sure you can't run, we can't run our business by worrying about that. We worry about it, we hope that is going to -- we're going to have cuts, but we're going to try to get ourselves in a position that no matter which way it goes or even if it stays this way for a while, that will be profitable.

所以我認為你不能跑，我確信你不能跑，我們不能透過擔心這個來經營我們的業務。我們擔心這一點，我們希望這會——我們將進行削減，但我們將努力讓自己處於這樣一個位置：無論情況如何發展，或者即使這種情況持續一段時間同時，這將是有利可圖的。

All right. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的。這就是我的全部。謝謝。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, those are all the questions that we have for today. Thank you for joining us on Douglas Elliman's quarterly earnings conference call. We hope you have a good day. This will conclude our call.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，這就是我們今天提出的所有問題。感謝您參加道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 的季度財報電話會議。我們希望您度過愉快的一天。我們的通話到此結束。