Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Douglas Elliman's fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. An archived version of the webcast will be available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website located at investors.elliman.com for one year.

歡迎參加道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 的第四季度和 2023 年全年收益電話會議。此次通話正在錄音並同時進行網路直播。此網路廣播的存檔版本將在該公司網站的投資者關係部分（位於investors.elliman.com）上提供，為期一年。

During this call, the terms adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income will be used These terms are non-GAAP financial measures and should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, other measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss are contained in the company's earnings release, which has been posted to the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

在本次電話會議中，將使用調整後的EBITDA 和調整後的淨利潤這些術語。這些術語是非GAAP 財務衡量標準，應作為根據GAAP 準備的其他財務績效衡量標準的補充，但不能取代這些衡量標準。調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的淨虧損的調節表包含在公司的收益發布中，該發布已發佈在公司網站的投資者關係部分。

Before the call begins, I would like to read a Safe Harbor statement. The statements made during this conference call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in or implied by forward-looking statements. These risks are described in more detail in the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

在通話開始之前，我想閱讀一份安全港聲明。本次電話會議期間所做的非歷史事實的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述，存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中闡述或暗示的結果有重大差異。該公司向證券交易委員會提交的文件中更詳細地描述了這些風險。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Douglas Elliman, Howard Lorber. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 董事長、總裁兼執行長霍華德·洛伯 (Howard Lorber)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me today are Richard Lampen, our Chief Operating Officer; Bryant Kirkland, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Durkin, President and CEO of Douglas Elliman Realty, our residential real estate brokerage business.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天和我在一起的有我們的營運長理查‧蘭彭 (Richard Lampen)；布萊恩特‧柯克蘭 (Bryant Kirkland)，我們的財務長；德金 (Scott Durkin)，Douglas Elliman Realty（我們的住宅房地產經紀業務）總裁兼執行長。

Before turning to financial results, we wanted to reference the ongoing Sitzer/Burnett and other resulting litigation in the residential real estate brokerage industry. Given this is active litigation, we are not going to comment or speak to potential outcomes. We also intend to decline to answer questions on these matters.

在討論財務表現之前，我們想先參考一下住宅房地產經紀行業正在進行的 Sitzer/Burnett 訴訟以及由此產生的其他訴訟。鑑於這是正在進行的訴訟，我們不會評論或談論潛在的結果。我們也打算拒絕回答有關這些問題的問題。

Since the verdict, more than 20 cases have been filed nationally, of which Douglas Elliman is currently aware of seven that involve us or one of its subsidiaries as a defendant. The plaintiffs, in certain of those actions, are seeking to centralize these lawsuits before the federal judge who presided over the Sitzer/Burnett trial in Missouri. The judicial panel will hear the matter on March 28, 2024.

自判決以來，全國已立案 20 多起案件，其中 Douglas Elliman 目前知道其中 7 起涉及我們或其子公司之一作為被告。在其中某些訴訟中，原告尋求將這些訴訟集中提交給主持密蘇裡州西策/伯內特案審判的聯邦法官。司法小組將於 2024 年 3 月 28 日審理此案。

In addition, we understand that the Department of Justice is reviewing industry practices on certain buyers' broker commissions, including by weighing in on settlements reached by other companies. Douglas Elliman is currently defending the cases pending against it and has a number of pretrial motions that will or have been brought. We believe the lawsuits, which are still in the very early stages and will likely take years to litigate, lack merit and we intend to challenge them.

此外，據我們了解，司法部正在審查某些買家經紀人佣金的行業慣例，包括權衡其他公司達成的和解協議。道格拉斯艾麗曼公司目前正在為其未決案件進行辯護，並已提出一些將要或已經提出的審前動議。我們認為，這些訴訟仍處於早期階段，可能需要數年時間才能進行，缺乏依據，我們打算對它們提出挑戰。

As we begin to discuss our fourth-quarter performance, we are enormously proud to share that Douglas Elliman was recently named the most trusted real estate brokerage firm in the United States as part of the America's most trusted series by Life Story Research. This tremendous accomplishment is a testament to the hard work of our world-class agents and their unwavering commitment to our clients across the markets we serve.

當我們開始討論我們第四季的業績時，我們非常自豪地告訴大家，道格拉斯·艾麗曼(Douglas Elliman) 最近被Life Story Research 評為美國最值得信賴的房地產經紀公司，這是美國最值得信賴的系列的一部分。這一巨大成就證明了我們世界級代理商的辛勤工作以及他們對我們所服務市場的客戶的堅定承諾。

Now turning to Douglas Elliman's financial results for the three months ended December 31, 2023. Please note that all numbers presented this morning will be as of December 31, 2023, unless otherwise stated.

現在轉向 Douglas Elliman 截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日止三個月的財務業績。請注意，除非另有說明，今天早上提供的所有數據均截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日。

We are pleased that Douglas Elliman continued to outperform many of its peers in the fourth quarter of 2023 despite ongoing industry-wide headwinds that impact results. We attribute our solid performance to three factors: stable pricing in our luxury markets, where buyers are less sensitive to interest rate pressures; the competitive advantage provided by Douglas Elliman's strong development, marketing business; and our world-class agents.

我們很高興道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 在 2023 年第四季度的表現繼續優於許多同行，儘管全行業持續存在影響業績的不利因素。我們將穩健的業績歸因於三個因素：奢侈品市場定價穩定，買家對利率壓力較不敏感；道格拉斯艾麗曼強大的開發、行銷業務提供的競爭優勢；以及我們世界一流的代理商。

For the fourth quarter of 2023, Douglas Elliman reported $214.1 million in revenues compared to $207.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman and for the fourth quarter was $14.8 million, or $0.18 per diluted share compared to $18.4 million or $0.23 per diluted share in the 2022 period. Adjusted EBITDA attributed to Douglas Elliman in the fourth quarter were a loss of $17.5 million compared to $17.1 million in the 2022 period.

道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 報告 2023 年第四季的收入為 2.141 億美元，而 2022 年第四季的收入為 2.073 億美元。第四季道格拉斯·艾麗曼公司的淨虧損為 1,480 萬美元，即稀釋後每股虧損 0.18 美元，而 2022 年期間的淨虧損為 1,840 萬美元，即稀釋後每股虧損 0.23 美元。第四季道格拉斯艾麗曼公司調整後 EBITDA 虧損 1,750 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 1,710 萬美元。

For comparison purposes, our real estate brokerage segment reported an operating loss of $16.4 million this quarter compared to $15.6 million in the 2022 period. And adjusted EBITDA attributed to the segment were approximately a loss of $12.5 million compared to $12.6 million in the 2022 period. Adjusted net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman in the fourth quarter was $14.5 million, or $0.18 per share compared to $18.4 million or $0.23 per share in the 2022 period.

出於比較目的，我們的房地產經紀部門本季的營運虧損為 1,640 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 1,560 萬美元。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 約為 1,250 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 1,260 萬美元。第四季道格拉斯艾麗曼公司調整後淨虧損為 1,450 萬美元，即每股 0.18 美元，而 2022 年期間為 1,840 萬美元，即每股 0.23 美元。

Now turning to Douglas Elliman's results for the year ended December 31, 2023, Douglas Elliman reported $956 million in revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023, compared to $1.15 billion in 2022. Net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman was $42.6 million or $0.52 per diluted share compared to $5.6 million or $0.08 per diluted share in 2022.

現在轉向道格拉斯·艾麗曼(Douglas Elliman) 截至2023 年12 月31 日止年度的業績，道格拉斯·艾麗曼(Douglas Elliman) 公佈截至2023 年12 月31 日止年度的收入為9.56 億美元，而2022 年為11.5 億美元。道格拉斯艾麗曼公司的淨虧損為 4,260 萬美元，即稀釋後每股 0.52 美元，而 2022 年為 560 萬美元，即稀釋後每股 0.08 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA attributed to Douglas Elliman for the year were a loss of $40.7 million compared to income of $15 million in 2022. Our real estate brokerage segment reported an operating loss of $36.8 million for the year compared to operating income of $22 million in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA attributed to the real estate brokerage segment were a loss of $21.5 million compared to income of $34.5 million in 2022. Adjusted net loss attributed to Douglas Elliman was $40.9 million or $0.50 per share for the year compared to $6.2 million or $0.08 per share in 2022.

道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 今年調整後 EBITDA 虧損 4070 萬美元，而 2022 年收入為 1500 萬美元。我們的房地產經紀部門報告稱，本年度營業虧損為 3,680 萬美元，而 2022 年營業收入為 2,200 萬美元。房地產經紀業務調整後 EBITDA 虧損 2,150 萬美元，而 2022 年收入為 3,450 萬美元。道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 全年調整後淨虧損為 4090 萬美元，即每股 0.50 美元，而 2022 年為 620 萬美元，即每股 0.08 美元。

Now we will discuss our outlook on the current operating environment for Douglas Elliman as well as trends we are seeing in residential real estate. We have previously discussed the cyclical nature of our industry. Generationally, high mortgage rates have driven sustained listing inventory shortages across our luxury markets for almost two years. These shortages have resulted in significantly lower transactions during this time.

現在我們將討論對道格拉斯艾麗曼公司當前營運環境的展望以及我們在住宅房地產領域看到的趨勢。我們之前已經討論過我們行業的周期性。從一代人的角度來看，高抵押貸款利率導致我們的奢侈品市場近兩年來持續出現房源庫存短缺。這些短缺導致這段時間的交易量大幅減少。

While we expect these industry-wide challenges will continue to impact our results in the first quarter of 2024, we remain encouraged by improvements in the fourth quarter of 2023, specifically. The fourth quarter saw our first increase in year-over-year quarterly revenues since the first quarter of 2022, which was driven by higher activity across the markets we serve, particularly in Florida.

雖然我們預計這些全行業的挑戰將繼續影響我們 2024 年第一季的業績，但我們仍然對 2023 年第四季的改善感到鼓舞。自 2022 年第一季以來，第四季度我們的季度收入首次同比增長，這是由於我們所服務的市場（尤其是佛羅裡達州）的活動增加所推動的。

Generally, the strongest markets tend to be the first markets to emerge from the downturn. This trend has continued in 2024 as our commission receipts have improved on a year-over-year basis in January and February of 2024. We believe this signals that the market is beginning to adjust to higher interest rates.

一般來說，最強勁的市場往往是最早走出低迷的市場。這一趨勢在 2024 年持續存在，因為我們的佣金收入在 2024 年 1 月和 2 月同比有所改善。我們認為這標誌著市場開始適應更高的利率。

Nonetheless, buyers are feeling encouraged after the Federal Reserve signaled in January that it is nearing a long-awaited shift toward cutting interest rates. Importantly, total listing volume also improved in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 25% from the 2022 period, with gains in listings reported in Florida, California, New York, and Colorado, all increasing significantly compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Because we recognize revenues when the sale closes, we expect that we will begin to see the impact of increased listing volume in the second half of 2024.

儘管如此，在聯準會一月份表示即將轉向期待已久的降息之後，買家感到受到鼓舞。重要的是，2023 年第四季的掛牌總量也有所增加，比2022 年同期成長了25%，其中佛羅裡達州、加州、紐約州和科羅拉多州的掛牌量有所增加，與2022 年第四季度相比均顯著增加。由於我們在銷售結束時確認收入，因此預計我們將在 2024 年下半年開始看到上市量增加的影響。

Our gross transaction value increased to $7.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 from $7.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, and transaction volume increased by approximately 5.2% in the fourth quarter. Consistent with the increase in transactions, our average sales price per transaction remained an industry-best, $1.58 million in the fourth quarter. This was flat compared to the third quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2022.

我們的總交易價值從 2022 年第四季的 75 億美元增至 2023 年第四季的 79 億美元，第四季交易量成長約 5.2%。與交易量的成長一致，第四季每筆交易的平均銷售價格仍保持行業最高水平，為 158 萬美元。與 2023 年第三季和 2022 年第四季相比持平。

We believe the consistency in average price per transaction reflects the strength of the luxury markets we operated, as well as Douglas Elliman's reputation for offering the finest properties and client experience in real estate.

我們相信，每筆交易平均價格的一致性反映了我們經營的奢侈品市場的實力，以及道格拉斯艾麗曼在房地產領域提供最佳的房產和客戶體驗的聲譽。

Due to our solid financial position and cost reduction strategy, Douglas Elliman is well positioned to successfully navigate near-term industry challenges. Douglas Elliman's strong balance sheet underscores our long history of profitability and managing various market conditions. We have maintained ample liquidity with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $120 million or $1.31 per common share and zero debt.

憑藉我們穩健的財務狀況和降低成本的策略，道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 處於有利地位，能夠成功應對近期的行業挑戰。道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 強勁的資產負債表凸顯了我們悠久的盈利能力和管理各種市場條件的歷史。我們保持著充足的流動性，現金和現金等價物約為 1.2 億美元，即每股普通股 1.31 美元，債務為零。

Throughout the year, we have continued to adjust our cost structure to benefit our business, including additional headcount reductions, cutting costly sponsorships, streamlining advertising, and commencing a program to consolidate office space.

在這一年中，我們不斷調整成本結構以使我們的業務受益，包括額外裁員、削減昂貴的贊助、精簡廣告以及啟動整合辦公空間的計劃。

Our cost reduction efforts have been judicious, and the results of our strategy are beginning to flow to the bottom line. Our real estate brokerage segment reduced its operating expenses, including commission expense, restructuring, and other non-cash expenses by $2.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a decline of approximately 3.2% compared to the prior-year period.

我們在降低成本方面做出了明智的努力，我們的策略成果也開始體現在利潤上。我們的房地產經紀部門在 2023 年第四季減少了營運費用，包括佣金費用、重組和其他非現金費用 220 萬美元，年減約 3.2%。

We believe these efforts will continue to create a more nimble, diverse element without significantly impacting the agent experience. We are proud to share that our agent retention rate stands at 92%, and we continue to attract the industry's best talent.

我們相信這些努力將繼續創造一個更靈活、多樣化的元素，而不會顯著影響座席體驗。我們很自豪地告訴大家，我們的代理商保留率高達 92%，我們不斷吸引業界最優秀的人才。

Looking ahead, we remain focused on continuing to capture market share by leveraging our key strengths, including our world-class network of agents and our development marketing business. We believe our development marketing business is creating a foundation for long-term value as transactions close over the next several years and provides a competitive advantage, particularly at premium residences and especially considering the limited inventory of existing home sales available.

展望未來，我們仍然致力於利用我們的主要優勢，包括我們世界一流的代理商網絡和開發行銷業務，繼續佔領市場份額。我們相信，隨著未來幾年交易的完成，我們的開發行銷業務正在為長期價值奠定基礎，並提供競爭優勢，特別是在高檔住宅方面，特別是考慮到現有房屋銷售的庫存有限。

As of December 31, 2023, our development and marketing business had an active pipeline of signed and new projects at $21.6 billion gross transaction value, including $13.8 billion of gross transaction value in Florida alone. Further, $9.7 billion of additional transaction value from our development and marketing business is scheduled to come to market in the next year. We believe this bodes well for the future as we will recognize commission income from these projects as they close in the coming years.

截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們的開發和行銷業務擁有活躍的已簽約項目和新項目，總交易價值達 216 億美元，其中僅佛羅裡達州的總交易價值就達 138 億美元。此外，我們的開發和行銷業務預計明年將帶來 97 億美元的額外交易價值。我們相信這對未來來說是個好兆頭，因為我們將在這些項目在未來幾年結束時確認這些項目的佣金收入。

In summary, Douglas Elliman continues to meet the current macroeconomic challenges, and we believe our differentiated platform and the underlying strength of our business position positions us for long-term growth and success.

總之，道格拉斯·艾麗曼繼續應對當前的宏觀經濟挑戰，我們相信我們的差異化平台和業務地位的潛在優勢使我們能夠實現長期成長和成功。

Our proven management team has a successful history of navigating many economic cycles and a fine financial discipline that balances the importance of maintaining revenues and managing operating expenses to create long-term stockholder value.

我們久經考驗的管理團隊擁有駕馭多個經濟週期的成功歷史，以及良好的財務紀律，可以平衡維持收入和管理營運費用的重要性，以創造長期股東價值。

Looking ahead, in addition to driving operational efficiencies, we are focused on strategic market expansion, continued recruitment of outstanding talent, and further adoption of innovative solutions to empower our brokers.

展望未來，除了提高營運效率外，我們還專注於策略性市場擴張、持續招募優秀人才以及進一步採用創新解決方案來增強我們經紀商的能力。

With that, we will be happy to answer questions. Operator?

這樣，我們將很樂意回答問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Soham Bhonsle.

（操作員說明）Soham Bhonsle。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Your line is open. Please go ahead.

您的線路已開通。請繼續。

Hi. Can you all hear me?

你好。你們都能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

Hi, great. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. So this looks like the second quarter in a row where you've taken some market share, at least compared to the national stats, which is great. But I know you're not in every market in the US today either. So I guess the question is, are you seeing market share take on a local level as well? Or should we sort of think about this more a function of your end markets just outperforming sort of the national markets here?

嗨，太好了。大家，早安。希望你做得很好。因此，這看起來像是您連續第二個季度佔據了一些市場份額，至少與全國統計數據相比，這很棒。但我知道您現在也並非遍布美國的每個市場。所以我想問題是，您是否也看到本地市場份額也有所上升？或者我們應該多考慮這更多是你們的終端市場表現優於國內市場的結果？

I would say that generally speaking, the high-end markets do perform better. And that's why we've pretty much stuck to the high-end markets, and our expansion is going to be going to be the same. We are not interested in going to every single market, just to say that we have more markets and more brokers. But they don't have anywhere near what we have, an average price on sales. So we think that this is the right strategy for our company.

我想說，整體來說，高端市場確實表現得更好。這就是為什麼我們幾乎堅持高端市場，我們的擴張也會是一樣的。我們無意進入每一個市場，只是說我們有更多的市場和更多的經紀人。但他們的平均銷售價格與我們相差甚遠。所以我們認為這對我們公司來說是正確的策略。

Got it. Okay. And it looks like your commission split was up another 210 basis points this quarter. It was sort of in the same ballpark last quarter. So can you just maybe speak to the drivers of the increase there? And are you seeing more competition for agents today or is that just a function of mix? And should we sort of expect this trend to continue?

知道了。好的。本季您的佣金分配似乎又增加了 210 個基點。上個季度的情況大致相同。那麼您能否談談推動這一成長的因素？現在您看到代理商的競爭更加激烈，或者這只是混合的結果？我們是否應該預期這種趨勢會持續下去？

Well, I think it's both those things you mentioned. Surely, there's been a lot of competition. Companies are trading agents back and forth. And many times, they're giving cash bonuses when they sign up, then higher splits. This has been going on now for a number of years, probably for about six or seven years, and I think it has sort of slowed down at this particular point.

嗯，我想你提到的這兩件事都是如此。當然，有很多競爭。公司現來回代理貿易。很多時候，他們在註冊時會給予現金獎金，然後是更高的分成。這種情況已經持續了很多年，可能持續了大約六到七年，我認為在這個特定的時刻它已經放緩了。

And my guess is that as the market improves and brokers are doing better and better that the -- that maybe it will come down. That is not positive that I would say it will come down because it's hard to take something back that you've already given, but at least on new agents and so forth, it will be at a lower level and that will help mediate these increases.

我的猜測是，隨著市場的改善和經紀人的做得越來越好，也許它會下降。我認為它會下降並不是積極的，因為很難收回你已經給予的東西，但至少在新的代理商等方面，它將處於較低的水平，這將有助於調解這些增長。

Okay. Understood. And then, Bryant, on the operating expenses, it looks like the G&A line was a little higher quarter over quarter. Were there any one-time items to call out there? And then how should we think about sort of the quarterly run rate for just total OpEx ex-commissions in 2024?

好的。明白了。然後，布萊恩特，在營運費用方面，看起來 G&A 線比上一季略高一些。那裡有什麼一次性物品可以呼叫嗎？那我們該如何考慮 2024 年營運支出前佣金總額的季度運行率？

So good morning, first. And you're correct, the G&A line was higher. Some of that relates to the timing of expenses, particularly between the third quarter and fourth quarter related to events that we sponsor as well as insurance. And obviously also, there was an increase in professional fees during the quarter.

首先，早安。你是對的，一般行政費用線更高。其中一些與費用時間有關，特別是在第三季和第四季之間與我們贊助的活動以及保險相關的費用。顯然，本季的專業費用有所增加。

Going forward, we would say we like where we are, but we are going to be making more meaningful cuts in 2024. In particular, we've discussed in our prior calls about a $4 million lease running off. And in addition to that, we are making meaningful cuts in our property management division, and I expect some of those cuts to go over to the other areas of the business.

展望未來，我們會說我們喜歡目前的狀況，但我們將在 2024 年進行更有意義的削減。特別是，我們在先前的電話中討論了 400 萬美元租約到期的問題。除此之外，我們正在對物業管理部門進行有意義的削減，我預計其中一些削減將轉移到業務的其他領域。

Got it. And then just lastly, is Scott on the call? He is, right? This one's for Scott, I guess, Scott or Howard. I'm just wondering, you guys all speak to agents daily. Can you just maybe give us a feel for conversations with agents are going like today. Is there concern around sort of just uncertain environment today? Or do you feel like you feel good about adapting to whatever may come ahead?

知道了。最後，史考特在打電話嗎？他是對的？我猜這是給史考特的，史考特或霍華德。我只是想知道，你們每天都和特務說話。您能否讓我們感受一下與今天的特務對話的進展。是否對當今不確定的環境感到擔憂？或者你覺得自己對適應未來可能發生的一切感覺良好嗎？

Yes, I think that most of them are from adapting to what will ever come ahead. I assume -- as I said, we're not going to comment on the litigation, but I feel that -- look, we have a great group of agents that in the high-end markets that do high very high-end sales. And of course, we have markets that are lower end, but still high compared to the whole country.

是的，我認為其中大多數都是為了適應未來的情況。我想——正如我所說，我們不會對訴訟發表評論，但我覺得——看，我們有一群很棒的代理商，他們在高端市場進行非常高端的銷售。當然，我們也有低端市場，但與全國相比仍然較高。

Long Island is, where the company really started, is a lower-end market. But still, that's a market probably that averages about $600,000 per transaction. So it's not the extremely low market, but I think that the agents are happy -- happier, anyway, doing well.

長島是該公司真正起步的地方，是一個低端市場。但儘管如此，這個市場的平均每筆交易額可能約為 60 萬美元。因此，這並不是一個極低的市場，但我認為代理商很高興——更高興，無論如何，做得很好。

I guess there's been a little disappointment because I think most of us thought that we have a rate cut in the first quarter, which obviously is not going to happen now. But I think once that happens, which hopefully now will be the second quarter, that I think that it's going to be a great boon for the industry.

我想大家有點失望，因為我想我們大多數人都認為我們會在第一季降息，但現在顯然不會發生。但我認為一旦發生這種情況（希望現在是第二季），我認為這將為整個行業帶來巨大的福音。

Great. I appreciate all the thoughts.

偉大的。我很欣賞所有的想法。

Thank you, Soham.

謝謝你，索漢姆。

Ahmed Mehri, Jefferies.

艾哈邁德·梅里，傑弗里斯。

Good morning. This is Ahmed from Jefferies. I guess my first question is about the macro environment. I'm just hoping you could share some color on what you're seeing there and when comps start to accelerate in terms of volume this year.

早安.我是來自 Jefferies 的艾哈邁德。我想我的第一個問題是關於宏觀環境的。我只是希望你能分享一些你所看到的以及今年比賽何時開始加速的資訊。

So you're talking about compared to our competitors?

那麼您是在談論與我們的競爭對手相比嗎？

No, in terms of year over year.

不，從同比來看。

Again, year over year, obviously, we have -- there's a lack of inventory in most markets, especially in strong markets and the low-tax states. So that, I believe, once there is a rate cut, that will push a lot more into the market and we will be doing substantially more business as rates come down. Our new development business is a key part of the settlement, and we have a great -- very strong business there. And that's generally speaking at the high end of the market.

顯然，年復一年，大多數市場都缺乏庫存，尤其是在強勁的市場和低稅率的州。因此，我相信，一旦降息，就會將更多的資金推向市場，隨著利率的下降，我們將做更多的業務。我們的新開發業務是和解的關鍵部分，我們在那裡擁有非常強大的業務。一般來說，這是高端市場的情況。

And we're still pretty new in markets like Texas, and there's a great upside to Texas. We now have -- we have three offices. We have Austin, Dallas, and Houston. And we're looking at maybe in other markets in Texas. So we think that's a great market to be. We're also looking at other markets, but we're looking pretty much at the low-tax or no-tax states to expand on a macro basis.

我們在德州這樣的市場上還處於起步階段，而且德州還有很大的上升空間。我們現在有——我們有三個辦公室。我們有奧斯汀、達拉斯和休士頓。我們正在考慮德克薩斯州的其他市場。所以我們認為這是一個很好的市場。我們也在關注其他市場，但我們主要關注低稅或免稅州，以在宏觀基礎上進行擴張。

Got it. That's great color on the markets. And actually, if you could maybe expand more on just what markets are seeing better demand or which markets maybe you're more concerned about?

知道了。這是市場上很棒的顏色。實際上，您是否可以更專注於哪些市場需求更好，或者您可能更關心哪些市場？

Well, yes. I mean, I think the ones that we're more concerned about are the ones that are taxing people out of their states. We're in California, but California is very difficult, okay? Very difficult because they keep adding taxes, and it's pretty tough. And California was also a state that always had higher commission payouts to brokers than the East Coast. So that's a tough one. I think that's probably the toughest of the markets that we're in.

嗯，是。我的意思是，我認為我們更關心的是那些向各州人民徵稅的人。我們在加州，但是加州很困難，好嗎？非常困難，因為他們不斷加稅，這非常困難。加州也是一個向經紀人支付的佣金始終高於東海岸的州。所以這是一項艱難的任務。我認為這可能是我們所處的最艱難的市場。

But I think that's the -- B. K., do you want to comment?

但我認為這就是——B.K.，你想發表評論嗎？

Yes, I'll be happy to, and good morning. I think one part about our story is our luxury brand is permeating throughout the country as there are shifts in the population. If you look at Florida, California new markets, they increase from 41% of revenues in the fourth quarter last year to 46% this year.

是的，我很樂意，早安。我認為我們故事的一部分是，隨著人口的變化，我們的奢侈品牌正在滲透到全國各地。如果你看看佛羅裡達州和加州的新市場，它們佔收入的比例從去年第四季的 41% 增加到今年的 46%。

Florida alone went from 20.5% to 25% of the market to -- of our total revenues. So that was a significant increase. And we are continuing to see a lot of strong demand in Florida. As Howard mentioned earlier, there's $13.8 billion in inventory that we have that we're currently selling in development marketing.

光是佛羅裡達州就占我們總收入的 20.5% 至 25%。所以這是一個顯著的成長。我們繼續看到佛羅裡達州的強勁需求。正如霍華德之前提到的，我們目前在開發行銷中銷售的庫存價值為 138 億美元。

And a backlog of others that will be coming onto the market.

還有大量即將上市的其他產品。

Yes. And that number in Florida, I believe, is $5.8 billion, Howard.

是的。我相信佛羅裡達州的這個數字是 58 億美元，霍華德。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one last one for me. Just really -- I guess I couldn't find it, so apologies if I missed this on your filings, but just trying to understand your development business. Could you maybe explain again what's the timing of recognition of cash and revenues on that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後是我的最後一件事。只是真的 - 我想我找不到它，所以如果我在你的文件中錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但只是想了解你的開發業務。您能否再次解釋一下確認現金和收入的時間是什麼？

BK?

比克？

Yes, I'll be happy to take that. So generally, when a deposit is received in development marketing, we record that as a liability or deferred revenue. And we recognize the commission that we pay to our agent as the deferred costs.

是的，我很樂意接受。因此，一般來說，當在開發行銷中收到押金時，我們會將其記錄為負債或遞延收入。我們將支付給代理商的佣金確認為遞延成本。

So we do not recognize profit on the new development until units start to close because under the accounting rules, a sale occurs when all the items have been met to close that sale. So that's when revenue was recognized.

因此，在單位開始關閉之前，我們不會確認新開發項目的利潤，因為根據會計規則，當所有項目都滿足以完成銷售時，銷售就會發生。這就是收入被確認的時候。

So there is a deferred liability on the books. I believe the number is about $63 million of the deferred costs related to commissions we paid. It is about $41 million. The difference of that $20 million will be recognized over time generally in the next four years.

因此，帳簿上存在遞延負債。我相信這個數字大約是與我們支付的佣金相關的遞延成本的 6,300 萬美元。大約是4100萬美元。這 2000 萬美元的差額通常會在未來四年內逐漸得到承認。

And the other advantage is this is going to help our margins -- commissions on new development sales are less than regular resales.

另一個優點是這將有助於提高我們的利潤——新開發項目銷售的佣金低於常規轉售的佣金。

Got it. That's very helpful.

知道了。這非常有幫助。

I gave a number earlier. Coming to market on new development this year is $9.7 billion. Florida, of that, is $5.1 billion.

我之前給了一個數字。今年新開發案的上市價值為 97 億美元。其中佛羅裡達州為 51 億美元。

That's not including what's already on the market.

這還不包括市場上已有的產品。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

That hasn't closed yet.

那還沒結束。

Yes.

是的。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, those are all the questions that we have for today. Thank you for joining us on Douglas Elliman's quarterly earnings conference call. We hope you have a good day, and this will conclude our call.

女士們、先生們，這就是我們今天提出的所有問題。感謝您參加道格拉斯·艾麗曼 (Douglas Elliman) 的季度財報電話會議。我們希望您度過愉快的一天，我們的通話就到此結束。