美元樹 (DLTR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Dollar Tree Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. This meeting is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Randy Guiler. Please go ahead, sir.

    早上好,歡迎來到 Dollar Tree 第四季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此會議。在這個時候,我想把這個電話交給Randy Guiler。請繼續,先生。

  • Randy Guiler - VP of IR

    Randy Guiler - VP of IR

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our call to discuss Dollar Tree's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 results. With me on today's call are Chairman and CEO, Rick Dreiling; and CFO, Jeff Davis.

    謝謝你,運營商。早上好,歡迎來電討論 Dollar Tree 的第四季度和 2022 財年業績。與我一起出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官 Rick Dreiling;和首席財務官傑夫戴維斯。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that various remarks that we will make about our expectations, plans and prospects for the company constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially from those indicated in these forward-looking statements. For information on the risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results, please see the risk factors, business and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations sections in our 10-K filed March 15, 2022, our 10-Q for the most recently ended fiscal quarter. Today's press release and 8-K and other filings we make from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們將就我們對公司的期望、計劃和前景發表的各種評論構成根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》規定的安全港條款的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響,我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同。有關可能影響我們實際結果的風險和不確定性的信息,請參閱我們於 2022 年 3 月 15 日提交的 10-K、我們的 10-Q 中的風險因素、業務和管理層對財務狀況和經營業績的討論和分析部分最近結束的財政季度。今天的新聞稿和 8-K 以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

  • We caution against reliance on these forward-looking statements made today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise these statements, except as may be required by law. Following our prepared remarks, Rick and Jeff will take your questions. Given the large number of those that would like to participate, I ask that you limit your questions to one. I will now turn the call over to Rick.

    我們告誡不要依賴今天所做的這些前瞻性陳述,並且我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些陳述的義務,除非法律可能要求。在我們準備好的發言之後,Rick 和 Jeff 將回答您的問題。鑑於有很多人願意參加,我請您將問題限制在一個範圍內。我現在將把電話轉給里克。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Randy, and good morning, everyone. I apologize that I'm a little horse. I'm coming off of COVID and the good news is I'm fine. I will review the highlights for quarter 4 fiscal 2022 and will provide an update on current priorities. Then Jeff will detail our financial performance and expectations for 2023.

    謝謝你,蘭迪,大家早上好。對不起,我是一匹小馬。我即將擺脫 COVID,好消息是我很好。我將回顧 2022 財年第 4 季度的亮點,並將提供當前優先事項的最新情況。然後 Jeff 將詳細介紹我們的財務業績和對 2023 年的預期。

  • For the quarter, we delivered $7.72 billion in sales, an increase of 9%, with enterprise comp growth of 7.4%, operating income of $618.1 million, leading to a quarter 4 EPS of $2.04. Our sales performance for the fourth quarter was a continuation of momentum from quarter 3. Same-store sales growth of 8.7% at Dollar Tree and 5.8% at Family Dollar represented comp accelerations on a 1-, 2- and 3-year stack basis. This improved performance and market share gain is not simply happening by itself. It's the result of lots of hard work and good work by our store and merchant teams as well as the early fruits of our price, labor and store investments. And I truly believe we are just getting started.

    本季度,我們實現了 77.2 億美元的銷售額,增長 9%,企業收入增長 7.4%,營業收入為 6.181 億美元,第四季度每股收益為 2.04 美元。我們第四季度的銷售業績延續了第三季度的勢頭。Dollar Tree 的同店銷售額增長了 8.7%,Family Dollar 的同店銷售額增長了 5.8%,代表了 1 年、2 年和 3 年疊加基礎上的競爭加速。這種改進的性能和市場份額的增加並不是簡單地自行發生的。這是我們門店和商家團隊辛勤工作和良好工作的結果,也是我們價格、勞動力和門店投資的早期成果。我真的相信我們才剛剛開始。

  • I have been in retailing for half a century. And I've been fortunate to play a leadership role in multiple transformations. I am incredibly excited by and energized to be part of the path ahead for Dollar Tree. We have an exceptional team assembled, and I cannot overstate the amount of positive transformational change occurring in this business. We are committed to enhancing store productivity as we focus on developing our people, tools and technology to fuel accelerated growth. And that we do this while simplifying operations, improving the supply chain and innovating our merchandising strategies to better support our associates and to better serve our shoppers.

    我從事零售業已有半個世紀了。我很幸運能夠在多個轉型中發揮領導作用。我對成為 Dollar Tree 前進道路的一部分感到非常興奮和充滿活力。我們擁有一支出色的團隊,我無法誇大該業務中發生的積極轉型變化的數量。我們致力於提高商店生產力,因為我們專注於開發我們的人員、工具和技術以推動加速增長。我們在簡化運營、改善供應鍊和創新銷售策略的同時做到這一點,以更好地支持我們的員工並更好地為我們的購物者服務。

  • Given the team's relevant prior experiences, we know exactly what to do to drive improved productivity and profitability. We are moving as quickly as possible to capture the full potential of this business, and I am confident we will succeed. We have tremendous opportunity to improve the Dollar Tree banner. At Family Dollar, it's clear that we are at least a decade behind, and this is reflected in our prior performance levels and financial results. As we narrow the gap operationally, it will be realized in material improvements to our financial performance. As we get settled in, we are finding more and more opportunities to meaningfully improve both banners.

    鑑於團隊之前的相關經驗,我們確切地知道該怎麼做才能提高生產力和盈利能力。我們正在盡快採取行動以充分發揮這項業務的潛力,我相信我們會成功。我們有巨大的機會來改進 Dollar Tree 橫幅。在 Family Dollar,很明顯我們至少落後了十年,這反映在我們之前的績效水平和財務結果中。隨著我們在運營上縮小差距,我們的財務業績將得到實質性改善。隨著我們安頓下來,我們發現越來越多的機會來有意義地改進這兩個橫幅。

  • Compared to just a few short months ago, the list of improvement opportunities has grown. Our guiding objective is to maximize returns to our shareholders. Doing so calls for implementing these initiatives with responsible urgency. There is no point in dialing. It has, over the months, become increasingly clear that our team's great experience gives us the opportunity to complete in just 3 to 5 years, most of what has taken far longer in other situations.

    與短短幾個月前相比,改進機會的清單已經增加。我們的指導目標是最大化股東回報。這樣做需要以負責任的緊迫感實施這些舉措。撥號是沒有意義的。幾個月來,越來越清楚的是,我們團隊的豐富經驗讓我們有機會在短短 3 到 5 年內完成,而在其他情況下,大部分時間要長得多。

  • Our merchants, stores and other teams are driving lots of initiatives, many of them with minimal investment. I will highlight some of these later. While these are already gaining traction, they will have the greatest impact, if supported by additional complementary investments. The stronger our associate team, the better the store conditions the more competitive our pricing, the more we will get out of them. There is a synergy across these initiatives and the complementary investments we are making with each enhancing the others. For this reason, we are accelerating and pulling forward our schedule of major high-returning investments. The cost of these investments is reflected in our 2023 outlook, as an incremental $430 million increase in SG&A, and the outlook assumes only a minimal return from these investments. The company is confident that these investments once implemented, will yield attractive returns in 2024 and beyond.

    我們的商家、商店和其他團隊正在推動許多計劃,其中許多計劃的投資很少。我稍後會強調其中的一些。雖然這些已經獲得牽引力,但如果得到額外補充投資的支持,它們將產生最大的影響。我們的合作團隊越強大,商店條件越好,我們的定價越有競爭力,我們就越能從中獲利。這些舉措之間存在協同作用,我們正在進行的互補投資相互促進。出於這個原因,我們正在加速和推進我們的重大高回報投資計劃。這些投資的成本反映在我們的 2023 年展望中,即 SG&A 增加 4.3 億美元,並且展望假設這些投資的回報率很小。公司相信,這些投資一旦實施,將在 2024 年及以後產生可觀的回報。

  • While we are confident these operating expense investments will yield strong returns, we are also aware of the dynamic nature of the earliest stages of a turnaround. The many simultaneous moving pieces, the interdependence of many of these pieces and in current unusual dynamics in the economy. These considerations make forecasting the quarterly cadence of the benefits from these investments, particularly challenging. For this reason, for this first year of our transformation, we will consider these benefits only as they, in fact, materialize.

    雖然我們相信這些運營費用投資將產生可觀的回報,但我們也意識到扭虧為盈的最初階段的動態性質。許多同時移動的部分,其中許多部分的相互依賴以及當前經濟中不尋常的動態。這些考慮使得預測這些投資收益的季度節奏變得特別具有挑戰性。出於這個原因,在我們轉型的第一年,我們只會考慮這些好處,因為它們實際上已經實現了。

  • This year's investments, which include the full year impact of investments made during fiscal 2022 are in several key areas in the following order of magnitude, labor and wages, including hourly wage rates and investments in field personnel, stores, through repairs and maintenance and improving store conditions, corporate, including technology and other initiatives. Under this new leadership team, we are increasing average hourly wages and estimated $2 for the 2-year period of 2022 and 2023. We feel that looking on a market-by-market basis and benchmarking to comparable retail wages, this investment will put us in a more competitive position. We also made additional investments in store hours and coverage, investments in our field labor and managers and other areas to help us execute much better. We expect these labor and wage investments will drive improved execution in our stores, higher sales, lower turnover, attraction of and retention of talent, reduce shrink and greater productivity and efficiency.

    今年的投資,包括 2022 財年投資的全年影響,按以下數量級排列在幾個關鍵領域,即勞動力和工資,包括小時工資率以及通過維修和維護和改進對現場人員、商店的投資商店條件,公司,包括技術和其他舉措。在這個新的領導團隊的領導下,我們正在增加平均小時工資,並估計 2022 年和 2023 年的兩年期間為 2 美元。我們認為,在逐個市場的基礎上並以可比較的零售工資為基準,這項投資將使我們處於更具競爭力的地位。我們還對商店營業時間和覆蓋範圍進行了額外投資,對我們的現場勞動力和管理人員以及其他領域進行了投資,以幫助我們更好地執行。我們預計這些勞動力和工資投資將推動我們商店的執行力提高、銷售額增加、營業額減少、吸引和留住人才、減少收縮並提高生產力和效率。

  • Our associates and field personnel are critical to our transformation journey and we are excited about the investments in our talent. We are looking to invigorate the culture of this business, give our local operators and associates, the tools they need to execute and importantly provide them the opportunities they deserve to grow within our company.

    我們的員工和現場人員對我們的轉型之旅至關重要,我們對對人才的投資感到興奮。我們希望振興這項業務的文化,為我們當地的運營商和員工提供他們執行所需的工具,重要的是為他們提供他們應得的在我們公司內成長的機會。

  • On store standards, we call last quarter, I spoke about an intense focus on store standards, our commitments to clean them up, straighten them up and fill them up. When we do this, our shoppers respond with a bigger basket and more importantly, with repeat visits. Our new COO, Mike Creedon, joined the team in October. Mike possesses a relentless focus on the 3 pillars of successful store operations, the work, the worker and the workplace. The work we must run efficient and productive stores. As a high transaction volume business, it's critical we have processes in place to get product onto our shelves quickly. I'm certain that we can't sell a product if it's in the back room. Approving efficiencies and workflows positively impacts our associate experience.

    關於商店標準,我們在上個季度打電話,我談到了對商店標準的高度關注,我們承諾清理它們,整理它們並填充它們。當我們這樣做時,我們的購物者會以更大的購物籃作為回應,更重要的是,他們會再次光顧。我們的新首席運營官 Mike Creedon 於 10 月加入了團隊。 Mike 始終專注於成功經營商店的三大支柱:工作、員工和工作場所。我們必須經營高效且富有成效的商店。作為一個高交易量的企業,我們有適當的流程來快速將產品上架是至關重要的。我敢肯定,如果產品在密室,我們就賣不出去。批准效率和工作流程會對我們的員工體驗產生積極影響。

  • The worker, as an organization must be a cornerstone that we support and enable our associates to be successful. This commitment will enhance our ability to recruit, hire, train and retain associates and contribute to their retail career development. We believe this focus, combined with our wage investments are contributing to the reduction in turnover that we are starting to see. The workplace and as we have indicated in the past, we must improve our store and DC conditions, and we are in the process of doing so. Frankly, stores and DCs were not being maintained up to our new leadership standards. We are actively transitioning from what we consider to be reactive to proactive maintenance approach.

    作為一個組織,員工必須是我們支持的基石,並使我們的員工能夠取得成功。這一承諾將增強我們招聘、僱用、培訓和留住員工的能力,並為他們的零售職業發展做出貢獻。我們相信,這種關注與我們的工資投資相結合,有助於我們開始看到營業額減少。工作場所,正如我們過去所指出的,我們必須改善我們的商店和 DC 條件,我們正在這樣做。坦率地說,商店和 DC 的維護沒有達到我們新的領導標準。我們正在積極地從我們認為的被動維護方法過渡到主動維護方法。

  • In addition to the work, the worker and the workplace, Mike's team are in the process of identifying certified GOLD stores for each region. GOLD stands for a Grand Opening Look Daily. These stores will serve as a clear, concise example for our district and store leadership teams across all regions so they have a distinct vision and understanding of what our most successful and well-run stores look like.

    除了工作、員工和工作場所之外,Mike 的團隊還在為每個地區確定經過認證的 GOLD 商店。 GOLD 代表 Grand Opening Look Daily。這些商店將成為我們所有地區的地區和商店領導團隊的一個清晰、簡潔的例子,因此他們對我們最成功和經營最好的商店的樣子有一個獨特的願景和理解。

  • On the question of our corporate investments, I will address these later in the call. Our merchandising teams led by Rick McNeely and [Lara Gada] are working hard. The Dollar Tree merchant team successfully managed through the transition to the $1.25 primary price point. As we cycle the majority of these stores throughout the fourth quarter, we saw a 410 basis point sequential improvement in traffic compared to quarter 3.

    關於我們的公司投資問題,我將在稍後的電話會議中解決這些問題。我們由 Rick McNeely 和 [Lara Gada] 領導的營銷團隊正在努力工作。 Dollar Tree 商家團隊成功過渡到 1.25 美元的主要價格點。當我們在整個第四季度循環大多數這些商店時,我們看到與第三季度相比,客流量環比提高了 410 個基點。

  • Now that we have anniversaried the remainder of our stores in February, traffic is positive, and we are confident it will be a contributor to positive comps at Dollar Tree throughout the year. In 2022, we added $3 and $5 plus merchandise into more than 1,800 Dollar Tree stores. We plan to add this multiple price point product in another 1,800 or more stores in 2023. And when we begin flowing this multiple price product through 3 additional distribution centers, bringing our total to 7.

    現在我們已經在 2 月份對我們的其餘商店進行了周年紀念,客流量是積極的,我們相信它將在全年為 Dollar Tree 的積極競爭做出貢獻。 2022 年,我們在 1,800 多家 Dollar Tree 商店中增加了 3 美元和 5 美元以上的商品。我們計劃在 2023 年在另外 1,800 家或更多商店中添加這種多價位產品。當我們開始通過 3 個額外的配送中心流通這種多價位產品時,我們的總數將達到 7 個。

  • Separately, we have been aggressively expanding our $3, $4, $5 frozen and refrigerated product across the Dollar Tree store base going from 0 to 3,500 stores in 2022.

    另外,我們一直在 Dollar Tree 門店積極擴展 3 美元、4 美元、5 美元的冷凍和冷藏產品,到 2022 年門店數量將從 0 家增加到 3,500 家。

  • This consists of 3 cooler doors, 1 at each price point with an attractive selection of proteins, pizza, ice cream and more, which the customers are responding positively to. What we are seeing with Dollar Tree plus and multiple price frozen is that when the customer purchased at least one of these items, the basket size is more than double the basket with no multi-priced items. We are experiencing a more consistent and predictable slide chain. Stores were set well in advance for Valentine's Day, and we had terrific sell-through. The stores are now well prepared for the Easter season. And with $1.25 transition now behind us, we believe it's time for Dollar Tree merchants to get more creative than ever before. They have [carved launch] to raise the bar on delighting customers and driving sales and all options are up for discussion. We believe doing what is easy has no reward.

    這包括 3 個冷藏門,每個價位各 1 個,提供有吸引力的蛋白質、比薩餅、冰淇淋等選擇,客戶對此反應積極。我們在 Dollar Tree plus 和多價商品凍結中看到的是,當客戶至少購買其中一件商品時,購物籃的大小是沒有多價商品的購物籃的兩倍多。我們正在經歷一個更加一致和可預測的滑動鏈。商店為情人節提前做好了準備,我們的銷量非常好。這些商店現在已經為複活節做好了充分的準備。隨著 1.25 美元的過渡期結束,我們相信 Dollar Tree 商家是時候比以往任何時候都更有創意了。他們已經 [carved launch] 提高了取悅客戶和推動銷售的標準,所有選項都在討論中。我們相信做容易的事沒有回報。

  • In addition to the opportunities at the Dollar Tree banner, we have a tremendous long-term opportunity to improve the operating performance at Family Dollar. We have a number of sales and margin-driving initiatives that are already underway, albeit in the early stages. But as you have seen, these have contributed to the 4.1% comp in quarter 3, followed by a 5.8% in quarter 4. Among our actions are the following: we have begun raising the shelf height to a 70-inch profile throughout the stores to enable us to broaden the product offering for our shoppers. This profit-enhancing initiative allows us to grow our SKU base by 1,000 items, including OTC and [HBA], without increasing our store-related costs.

    除了 Dollar Tree 橫幅上的機會外,我們還有一個巨大的長期機會來改善 Family Dollar 的經營業績。我們有一些已經在進行中的銷售和利潤驅動計劃,儘管還處於早期階段。但正如您所見,這些因素在第 3 季度貢獻了 4.1% 的利潤,隨後在第 4 季度貢獻了 5.8%。我們的行動如下:我們已經開始將整個商店的貨架高度提高到 70 英寸使我們能夠為購物者擴大產品範圍。這一提高利潤的舉措使我們能夠在不增加與商店相關的成本的情況下,將我們的 SKU 基礎增加 1,000 種,包括 OTC 和 [HBA]。

  • We are continuing to expand the number of cooler doors with plans to add 16,000 doors in 2023 to accommodate more frozen and refrigerated items. Our goal is to have 30 doors per store. Our shoppers rely on Family Dollar in their communities to provide these consumable base products to feed their families. We are replacing our control brands with private brands, and we will be introducing hundreds of national brand equivalent products in the back half of this year. These will include new labels and redefined labels, many of which are being developed in our new test kitchen here in Chesapeake, Virginia.

    我們將繼續增加冷藏門的數量,併計劃在 2023 年增加 16,000 扇冷藏門,以容納更多的冷凍和冷藏物品。我們的目標是每家商店有 30 扇門。我們的購物者依靠社區中的 Family Dollar 提供這些可消耗的基礎產品來養家糊口。我們正在用自有品牌取代我們的控製品牌,我們將在今年下半年推出數百種與民族品牌相當的產品。這些將包括新標籤和重新定義的標籤,其中許多正在我們位於弗吉尼亞州切薩皮克的新測試廚房中開發。

  • To better meet both store and shopper needs, we are improving our ability to ship in [ECS], which improves inventory flow and profitability on slower moving, higher-margin items including the over-the-counter and health and beauty products. This enables us to be more nimble and provides greater flexibility. Additionally, we are working on improving Family Dollar productivity by enhancing end-cap displays, eliminating flex space and refining store adjacencies to better optimize the box. These are just a few examples that Larry's teams are focused on that we believe will contribute to Family Dollars improved sales trajectory in the sales ahead.

    為了更好地滿足商店和購物者的需求,我們正在提高我們在 [ECS] 中的發貨能力,這可以改善庫存流動和流動速度較慢、利潤率較高的商品(包括場外交易和健康和美容產品)的盈利能力。這使我們能夠更加靈活並提供更大的靈活性。此外,我們正在努力通過增強端蓋顯示、消除彈性空間和改進商店鄰接以更好地優化盒子來提高 Family Dollar 的生產力。這些只是拉里團隊關注的幾個例子,我們相信這些例子將有助於 Family Dollars 改善未來銷售的銷售軌跡。

  • We continue to be pleased with our positioning from a price perspective. We are at parity with key competitors and have widened the gap to grocery and drug. Shoppers have responded to the sharp pricing actions we took in late quarter 2 and third-party data suggest that Family Dollar is seeing an increasing amount of new customers in our stores.

    從價格的角度來看,我們仍然對我們的定位感到滿意。我們與主要競爭對手處於同等地位,並擴大了與食品雜貨和藥品的差距。購物者對我們在第二季度末採取的大幅定價行動做出了回應,第三方數據表明 Family Dollar 在我們的商店中看到越來越多的新客戶。

  • I will now turn the mic over to Jeff Davis, while Jeff has just been in his CFO seat at Dollar Tree since October, he is peddling fast and making great progress in a number of key strategic initiatives including leading the development of our long-term financial plan. Jeff will now provide more color on quarter 4 and what's ahead of us.

    我現在將把麥克風交給 Jeff Davis,雖然 Jeff 自 10 月以來剛剛擔任 Dollar Tree 的首席財務官職位,但他正在快速兜售並在許多關鍵戰略計劃中取得巨大進展,包括領導我們的長期發展財務計劃。 Jeff 現在將在第 4 季度和我們前面的內容中提供更多顏色。

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Unless otherwise stated, all fourth quarter comparisons are against the same period a year ago. In addition to my comments today, a supplemental slide deck that outlines several of our key operating metrics is available on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝你,里克,大家早上好。除非另有說明,否則所有第四季度的比較都是與去年同期相比。除了我今天的評論之外,我們的投資者關係網站上還提供了一個補充幻燈片,其中概述了我們的幾個關鍵運營指標。

  • Operating income increased 6.8% to $618.1 million or 8% of total revenue a 20 basis point decline in operating margin. This was compared to a 70 basis point improvement in gross profit margin, which was more than offset by SG&A. Gross profit increased 11.6% to $2.39 billion. The Dollar Tree segment gross margin improved 110 basis points, primarily from higher initial mark-on, lower freight cost and sales leverage, partially offset by product mix, product cost inflation and higher costs for markdowns, shrink and distribution.

    營業收入增長 6.8% 至 6.181 億美元,佔總收入的 8%,營業利潤率下降 20 個基點。相比之下,毛利率提高了 70 個基點,但被 SG&A 所抵消。毛利增長 11.6% 至 23.9 億美元。 Dollar Tree 部門的毛利率提高了 110 個基點,這主要是由於較高的初始加價、較低的運費和銷售槓桿,部分被產品組合、產品成本通脹以及降價、收縮和分銷成本增加所抵消。

  • Family Dollar's gross margin increased 20 basis points. This quarter represented Family Dollar's first improvement in gross margin in the last 7 quarters. The improvement was driven by higher initial mark-on, lower freight cost and leverage on occupancy, partially offset by mix, markdowns, shrink and higher distribution costs.

    Family Dollar 的毛利率增長了 20 個基點。本季度是 Family Dollar 在過去 7 個季度中毛利率的首次改善。這一改善是由更高的初始加價、更低的運費和占用率推動的,部分被混合、降價、收縮和更高的分銷成本所抵消。

  • SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased 80 basis points to 22.9%. The increase is due to a $23.9 million noncash store impairment charge along with elevated repairs and maintenance as part of our commitment to improve store and DC standards. Investments in store and distribution center hourly wages, and inflationary costs across several expense categories. Corporate support and other expenses were consistent at 1.4% of revenue. Net income was $452.2 million, and EPS was $2.04 in comparison to $2.01 a year ago.

    SG&A 佔收入的百分比增加了 80 個基點,達到 22.9%。增加的原因是 2390 萬美元的非現金商店減值費用,以及作為我們改善商店和 DC 標準的承諾的一部分而增加的維修和維護。對商店和配送中心小時工資的投資,以及多個費用類別的通貨膨脹成本。企業支持和其他費用始終佔收入的 1.4%。淨收入為 4.522 億美元,每股收益為 2.04 美元,而一年前為 2.01 美元。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. My comments will reflect balanced comparisons at the end of Q4 2022 versus Q4 2021. Combined cash and cash equivalents totaled $643 million compared to $985 million. Inventory increased 24.8%, primarily from unit growth associated with early receipts of spring 2023 merchandise, Family Dollar combo expansion and new store unit growth and cost growth from product inflation, including freight, the expansion of the $1.25 and multi-price plus inventory. Units per store are at a similar level to pre-pandemic period. Our inventory is fresh, and we have limited dated inventory well within manageable levels.

    轉到資產負債表。我的評論將反映 2022 年第四季度末與 2021 年第四季度末的平衡比較。現金和現金等價物總計 6.43 億美元,而 9.85 億美元。庫存增長 24.8%,主要是由於與 2023 年春季商品的早期收貨相關的單位增長、Family Dollar 組合擴張和新店單位增長以及產品通脹帶來的成本增長,包括運費、1.25 美元的擴張和多價加庫存。每家商店的單位與大流行前時期的水平相似。我們的庫存是新鮮的,而且我們的過時庫存在可管理的範圍內。

  • Capital expenditures were $328 million, in the fourth quarter versus $271.6 million. For fiscal 2023, we expect capital expenditures to total approximately $2 billion. Of this $2 billion, we would characterize 39% is dedicated to business continuity with the remaining 61% for what we consider to be growth optimization and productivity improvement. The business continuity includes projects to run and operate our stores and DCs as well as enhanced safety and compliance programs. More specifically, this would include freezers and coolers, HVAC replacements and facility improvements for stores. DC conveyor projects and building improvements for our distribution facilities, enhance permanent cooling for our DCs and store safety and asset protection related projects.

    第四季度的資本支出為 3.28 億美元,而第四季度為 2.716 億美元。對於 2023 財年,我們預計資本支出總額約為 20 億美元。在這 20 億美元中,我們認為 39% 用於業務連續性,其餘 61% 用於我們認為的增長優化和生產力提高。業務連續性包括運行和運營我們的商店和配送中心的項目,以及增強的安全和合規計劃。更具體地說,這將包括冷凍機和冷卻器、HVAC 更換和商店設施改進。 DC 輸送機項目和我們配送設施的建築改進,增強我們 DC 的永久冷卻以及商店安全和資產保護相關項目。

  • Our growth optimization and productivity improvement projects will include approximately 650 new stores, an estimated 1,000 store renovations, numerous distribution center projects and technology projects to enhance our efficiencies and support our growth.

    我們的增長優化和生產力改進項目將包括約 650 家新店、估計 1,000 家店面翻新、眾多配送中心項目和技術項目,以提高我們的效率並支持我們的增長。

  • Our 2023 sales and EPS expectations incorporate a number of factors. First, this is a 53-week year. We expect this will benefit the fourth quarter by approximately $500 million in sales and $0.29 in diluted EPS. Second, we are cycling the outsized margin benefit for Dollar Tree's initial transition to the $1.25 price point where last year, it produced a 39% margin rate in the first half of 2022 as we evolved our assortments to the new price point. Also for both segments, we expect to see continued cost pressure from inflation and margin pressure from merchandise mix as consumables are expected to outpace discretionary sales. Third, our outlook includes a benefit of approximately $1 per share from reduced freight expenses with nearly all of that benefit realized in the second half. Approximately half of our fiscal 2023 import container volume will remain at existing long-term contracts or charters at elevated rates.

    我們對 2023 年銷售額和每股收益的預期包含了很多因素。首先,今年有 53 週。我們預計這將使第四季度的銷售額增加約 5 億美元,攤薄後每股收益增加 0.29 美元。其次,我們正在將 Dollar Tree 最初過渡到 1.25 美元價格點的超大利潤率收益循環,去年,隨著我們將產品種類發展到新的價格點,它在 2022 年上半年產生了 39% 的利潤率。同樣對於這兩個細分市場,我們預計將看到通貨膨脹帶來的持續成本壓力和商品組合帶來的利潤壓力,因為消耗品預計將超過可自由支配的銷售額。第三,我們的前景包括運費減少帶來的每股約 1 美元的收益,幾乎所有收益都在下半年實現。我們 2023 財年大約一半的進口集裝箱量將以高費率保留在現有的長期合同或租船合同中。

  • We anticipate meaningfully lower rates for renegotiated contracts and spot volumes, which we expect to impact the remaining half of our container volume for the year. These factors limit the impact of lower freight rates on operating profits within the year. The Dollar Tree segment will realize approximately 80% of these freight savings, which will support a gross margin rate in the range of 36% to 37% in fiscal 2023. If current market conditions persist, we expect an additional freight cost relief of approximately $1 in fiscal 2024 and 2025 with the majority realized in fiscal 2024.

    我們預計重新談判的合同和現貨量的費率會顯著降低,我們預計這將影響我們今年剩餘一半的集裝箱量。這些因素限制了較低運價對年內營業利潤的影響。 Dollar Tree 部門將實現約 80% 的運費節省,這將支持 2023 財年 36% 至 37% 的毛利率。如果當前的市場狀況持續下去,我們預計運費將額外減少約 1 美元在 2024 財年和 2025 財年實現,其中大部分在 2024 財年實現。

  • Four, our outlook includes approximately $430 million or $1.45 per share in operating expenses across labor and wages, store repairs and maintenance and corporate as we accelerate our investments to transform this company. These investments are roughly split evenly between the 2 banners and include investments in corporate. Given the amount of transformational activity, initiative interdependencies and the volatility of economic environment, it is difficult to precisely estimate the timing and related magnitude of investment returns.

    第四,隨著我們加速投資以改造這家公司,我們的前景包括大約 4.3 億美元或每股 1.45 美元的運營費用,包括人工和工資、商店維修和維護以及公司。這些投資在兩個旗幟之間大致平均分配,包括對企業的投資。鑑於轉型活動的數量、倡議的相互依賴性和經濟環境的波動性,很難準確估計投資回報的時間和相關幅度。

  • Our 2023 outlook assumes only a minimal benefit from these investments. Company is confident that these investments, once implemented, will yield attractive returns in 2024 and beyond. There is strong evidence in the back half of 2022 that management's actions and investments are already yielding results at Family Dollar and Dollar Tree as evidenced by our recent trends. While our outlook assumes minimal profit contribution from Family Dollar this year, we believe there is tremendous opportunity to improve Family Dollar sales productivity and margins and we are confident this opportunity will realize and produce meaningful profits in the years ahead.

    我們的 2023 年展望假設這些投資的收益微乎其微。公司相信,這些投資一旦實施,將在 2024 年及以後產生可觀的回報。正如我們最近的趨勢所證明的那樣,2022 年下半年有強有力的證據表明,管理層的行動和投資已經在 Family Dollar 和 Dollar Tree 產生了成果。雖然我們的展望假設 Family Dollar 今年的利潤貢獻很小,但我們相信有巨大的機會來提高 Family Dollar 的銷售效率和利潤率,我們相信這個機會將在未來幾年實現並產生可觀的利潤。

  • Finally, we will continue to focus on people, store conditions, tools and technology to drive growth and long-term operating performance improvements. We expect SG&A expense dollars, which includes general inflation, new store expenses and accelerated investments as well as the 53rd week to grow in the low teens. Based on the confluence of these factors, we anticipate year-over-year gross and operating margins will decline in the first half of 2023, followed by growth in the second half. We estimate 2023 EPS will be comprised of approximately 40% in the first half and approximately 60% in the second half which includes 1 extra week in Q4.

    最後,我們將繼續關注人員、商店條件、工具和技術,以推動增長和長期經營業績的改善。我們預計 SG&A 費用美元(包括一般通貨膨脹、新店費用和加速投資以及第 53 週)將在低位增長。基於這些因素的綜合影響,我們預計 2023 年上半年毛利率和營業利潤率將同比下降,然後在下半年增長。我們估計 2023 年每股收益將由上半年約 40% 和下半年約 60% 組成,其中包括第四季度的額外一周。

  • Consolidated net sales for the full year fiscal 2023 are expected to range from $29.9 billion to $30.5 billion. We expect a low to mid-single-digit comp store sales increase for the year, comprised of a low single-digit increase in the Dollar Tree segment and a mid-single-digit increase in the Family Dollar segment. Selling square footage is expected to grow from 3% to 3.5%.

    預計 2023 財年全年的綜合淨銷售額將在 299 億美元至 305 億美元之間。我們預計今年的同店銷售額將出現中低個位數增長,其中包括 Dollar Tree 細分市場的低個位數增長和 Family Dollar 細分市場的中個位數增長。銷售面積預計將從 3% 增長到 3.5%。

  • Our new store openings this year will be more back end weighted compared to 2022. Diluted EPS is expected to range between $6.30 and $6.80. For Q1, we forecast consolidated net sales will range from $2.7 billion to $7.4 billion based on a mid-single-digit increase in same-store sales for the enterprise. Diluted earnings per share for Q1 are estimated to be in the range of $1.46 to $1.56. While share repurchases are not included in the outlook, we had $1.85 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization as of January 28.

    與 2022 年相比,我們今年新開的門店將更多地考慮後端因素。稀釋後的每股收益預計在 6.30 美元至 6.80 美元之間。對於第一季度,我們預測綜合淨銷售額將在 27 億美元至 74 億美元之間,基於企業同店銷售額的中個位數增長。第一季度的稀釋後每股收益估計在 1.46 美元至 1.56 美元之間。雖然股票回購不包括在展望中,但截至 1 月 28 日,我們的股票回購授權剩餘 18.5 億美元。

  • Other modeling considerations for the 2023 outlook include the following: we expect consolidated depreciation and amortization to range from $845 million to $850 million. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $27 million in Q1 and $97 million for the year. Our outlook assumes a tax rate of 24.25% to 24.5% for the first quarter and for the fiscal 2023 period. Weighted average diluted share counts are assumed to be 222.4 million shares for Q1 and 222.6 million shares for the full year.

    2023 年展望的其他建模考慮因素包括:我們預計綜合折舊和攤銷將在 8.45 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間。第一季度的淨利息支出預計約為 2700 萬美元,全年約為 9700 萬美元。我們的展望假設第一季度和 2023 財年的稅率為 24.25% 至 24.5%。假設第一季度加權平均稀釋股數為 2.224 億股,全年為 2.226 億股。

  • I'll now turn the call back to Rick.

    我現在將電話轉回給里克。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Jeff. As an organization, we are moving fast. Our operating initiatives are in flight and are gaining steam and the current economic climate is driving more higher income consumers into value retail. We believe we are in the right spot to deliver quality, value and convenience that shoppers need today. The momentum is continuing as both segments are off to a nice start early in quarter 1.

    謝謝你,傑夫。作為一個組織,我們正在快速行動。我們的經營舉措正在醞釀之中,並正在獲得動力,當前的經濟環境正在推動更多高收入消費者進入價值零售。我們相信我們處在正確的位置,可以提供當今購物者所需的質量、價值和便利。由於這兩個細分市場在第一季度初開局良好,這一勢頭仍在繼續。

  • Before we move to Q&A, I want to briefly discuss 2 additional contributors to our future success. Information technology and supply chain. In order to unlock the value creation opportunity ahead of us, we must have the right tools and technology in place to support our accelerated growth. [Bobby Aflatooni's] Technology Group has a clear vision and they are prioritizing projects that will have the greatest impact on our enhanced performance. Some of the increased speed fueling these projects, our capital expenditures and some are operating expenses. All of the projected spend for this year is captured and included in our outlook.

    在我們進入問答環節之前,我想簡要討論一下我們未來成功的另外 2 個貢獻者。信息技術和供應鏈。為了釋放我們面前的價值創造機會,我們必須擁有合適的工具和技術來支持我們的加速增長。 [鮑比·阿弗拉圖尼] Technology Group 擁有清晰的願景,他們正在優先考慮對我們提高績效影響最大的項目。一些加快的速度推動了這些項目,我們的資本支出和一些運營費用。今年的所有預計支出都已記錄並包含在我們的展望中。

  • And John Flanagan's supply chain team is doing a great deal of work to enhance efficiency and ensure the stores have the merchandise they need and can upstock it easily. We have identified an approach for eliminating the inefficiency of our current manual case-by-case handling process. This should enable us to more efficiently and reliably get products from our DCs onto our trucks and then into our stores. John has committed to having at least 1 DC up and running on the new process by the end of the year, which much more to come in 2024 and beyond. This will be a big step forward for our organization and especially for our store associates.

    John Flanagan 的供應鏈團隊正在做大量工作來提高效率並確保商店擁有他們需要的商品並且可以輕鬆補貨。我們已經確定了一種方法來消除我們當前手動逐案處理流程的低效率。這應該使我們能夠更有效、更可靠地將產品從我們的 DC 運送到我們的卡車上,然後進入我們的商店。 John 承諾到今年年底至少有 1 個 DC 在新流程上啟動並運行,2024 年及以後還會有更多。對於我們的組織,尤其是我們的店員來說,這將是向前邁出的一大步。

  • Also, I would like to pat our DC teams on the back. In the past year, all 25 of our DCs have been good distribution practices certified by an independent third-party auditor, and we are already in the process to begin recertifying for 2023. The company is very proud of this achievement and believe it demonstrates our company's commitment to our associates to run good clean buildings. 2022 represented a year of substantial change for the Dollar Tree organization. Of the 16 officers listed on Dollar Tree's website, only 2 were with our company 15 months ago. That is clearly a great deal of change in a very short period of time.

    另外,我想拍拍我們的 DC 團隊。在過去的一年裡,我們所有 25 個 DC 都通過了獨立第三方審核員的良好分銷實踐認證,我們已經在為 2023 年開始重新認證。公司對這一成就感到非常自豪,並相信這證明了我們公司對我們的員工的承諾是運行良好的清潔建築物。 2022 年是 Dollar Tree 組織發生重大變化的一年。在 Dollar Tree 網站上列出的 16 名管理人員中,只有 2 人在 15 個月前還在我們公司工作。這顯然是在很短的時間內發生了很大的變化。

  • I would like to share my sincere gratitude to our 207,000 associates that have not only embraced change but have welcomed our new leaders and me to the organization. One day, we will be able to reflect on 2022 as the inflection point that got our company back on track. To capture the remarkable long-term value creation journey ahead of us. The team knows that I'm all in, in my commitment to support our store and field associates as they develop and grow in their retail careers by running full, clean and friendly stores to serve our shoppers each and every day. The long-term opportunity ahead of us is bigger than I imagined before I joined the Dollar Tree team.

    我要向我們的 207,000 名員工表示衷心的感謝,他們不僅擁抱變革,而且歡迎我們的新領導和我加入該組織。總有一天,我們將能夠將 2022 年視為讓我們公司重回正軌的轉折點。捕捉我們面前非凡的長期價值創造之旅。團隊知道我全力以赴,致力於支持我們的商店和現場員工通過經營完整、乾淨和友好的商店每天為我們的購物者提供服務,從而在他們的零售職業生涯中發展壯大。擺在我們面前的長期機會比我加入 Dollar Tree 團隊之前想像的要大。

  • I want to be very clear. This transformation is not about saving dollars to deliver success. It's about spending dollars in the right places to unlock the future value of the business. This transformation is a process, which includes stabilizing the organization as we run and operate our business and make investments to modernize and transform the company to create long-term value for our stakeholders.

    我想說得很清楚。這種轉變不是為了節省資金來取得成功。這是關於在正確的地方花錢來釋放企業的未來價值。這種轉型是一個過程,其中包括在我們運營和經營業務時穩定組織,並進行投資以實現公司現代化和轉型,從而為我們的利益相關者創造長期價值。

  • As Jeff outlined, we pulled forward into 2023, certain investments that could otherwise have been extended for several years. And consequently, we expect fiscal 2023 to be a step back in earnings from the prior year. We're excited about this acceleration of initiatives and investments as it means higher and earlier returns in the years ahead. This is an important year to put us on a path for an acceleration in growth and earnings as we move forward.

    正如 Jeff 概述的那樣,我們將某些投資提前到了 2023 年,否則這些投資本可以延長數年。因此,我們預計 2023 財年的收益將比上一年倒退。我們對計劃和投資的加速感到興奮,因為這意味著在未來幾年會獲得更高、更早的回報。今年是重要的一年,可以讓我們在前進的過程中走上加速增長和盈利的道路。

  • We believe that this approach will maximize returns for our shareholders. Our leaders are eager to share more details on our vision and the path to get there, and we will do so in a more structured format in our Investor Day here in Southeast Virginia, currently being planned for June. We intend for this to be the first of several events over the years ahead as we outline our transformation and its progress along the way.

    我們相信,這種方法將為我們的股東帶來最大的回報。我們的領導人渴望分享更多關於我們的願景和實現目標的細節,我們將在弗吉尼亞東南部的投資者日以更有條理的形式分享,目前計劃於 6 月舉行。在我們概述我們的轉型及其沿途取得的進展時,我們打算將此作為未來幾年幾件大事中的第一件。

  • Before I turn it over to questions, I would like to take a moment on behalf of the employees, Board, shareholders to extend our thanks to Mike Witynski for his years of service and contributions. Mike, we're all grateful to you and wish you the best. Operator, Jeff and I are now ready to take questions.

    在開始提問之前,我想花點時間代表員工、董事會和股東對 Mike Witynski 多年來的服務和貢獻表示感謝。邁克,我們都很感謝你,祝你一切順利。接線員、Jeff 和我現在準備好回答問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) First question comes from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate all the color, and I hope you're feeling better, Rick.

    偉大的。欣賞所有的顏色,我希望你感覺好多了,瑞克。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Matt.

    謝謝你,馬特。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • So maybe to kick off at Dollar Tree, can you elaborate on the sequential improvement in comps that you're seeing in stores that have now lapped the break the dollar, maybe larger picture, how best to think about opportunities for that concept going forward. Relative to before the decision to break the buck? And then just separately, can you touch on success of the $3 and $5 item introduction?

    因此,也許要在 Dollar Tree 開始,您能否詳細說明您在商店中看到的 comps 的連續改進,這些商店現在已經打破了美元,也許是更大的圖景,如何最好地考慮這個概念向前發展的機會。相對於之前決定砸錢?然後,您能單獨談談 3 美元和 5 美元商品介紹的成功嗎?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. The answer, Matt, is let's do the last 1 first, the $3 to $5. We're very pleased. And the key takeaway on that is not only selling the product but the store's ability to manage it the multiple price points and not create confusion for the customer, which is why we've taken the approach that everything is now on the table. So very pleased with that.

    是的。馬特,答案是讓我們先做最後一項,即 3 美元到 5 美元。我們很高興。關鍵要點不僅在於銷售產品,還在於商店能夠管理多個價位的產品,並且不會給顧客造成混淆,這就是為什麼我們採取了現在一切都擺在桌面上的方法。對此非常滿意。

  • The improvement, as I look at the improvement, it's not only the sales, but more importantly, the transaction count and what's going on in the basket. And we know that the basket is substantially larger when we get the multiple price points in it. So very -- we're pleased. We're excited. And now that we've cycled it, we're getting a true measure on what's going on.

    改進,正如我所看到的改進,它不僅是銷售額,更重要的是交易數量和籃子裡發生的事情。而且我們知道,當我們在其中獲得多個價格點時,籃子要大得多。非常 - 我們很高興。我們很興奮。既然我們已經循環了它,我們就可以真正衡量正在發生的事情。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Yes. No, no, no, absolutely. And then maybe just to switch gears over to Family Dollar. So with mid-single-digit comps now for the second straight quarter, could you just elaborate on the market share gains that you're seeing with the acceleration of the investments. I guess what I'm trying to get to is, is there any visibility that you can share for multiyear return? And any change in the high single-digit long-term operating margin opportunity at Family Dollar?

    是的。不,不,不,絕對。然後也許只是將齒輪切換到 Family Dollar。因此,對於連續第二個季度的中等個位數補償,您能否詳細說明隨著投資的加速您所看到的市場份額增長。我想我想說的是,您是否可以分享多年回報的可見性? Family Dollar 的高個位數長期營業利潤率機會有何變化?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • We'll spend a lot more time talking about that sort of thing at the Investor Day. And while I do not want to be specific, Family Dollar is starting to gain share. And it's also gaining a larger share of the wallet.

    我們將在投資者日花更多時間討論這類事情。雖然我不想具體說明,但 Family Dollar 正開始獲得份額。而且它也獲得了更大的錢包份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Scot Ciccarelli from Trust Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Trust Securities 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Good to hear you. I guess a little bit of a follow-up on that second question, which is, I think we all kind of understand the need to accelerate investment in the business. But Rick, you made a comment earlier in your remarks about you plan to achieve in 3 to 5 years, what usually takes a lot longer. So I guess the question is, should we view kind of '23 as a reset or starting point for growth in '24 and beyond? Or just given that list of growing projects you mentioned, could we see investment spending continue to pressure earnings growth in '24 and '25?

    很高興聽到你的聲音。我想對第二個問題進行一些跟進,也就是說,我認為我們都理解加速業務投資的必要性。但是 Rick,你之前在評論中提到你計劃在 3 到 5 年內實現目標,而這通常需要更長的時間。所以我想問題是,我們是否應該將 23 年視為 24 年及以後增長的重置點或起點?或者只是考慮到您提到的增長項目清單,我們能否看到投資支出繼續對 24 和 25 年的收益增長構成壓力?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Excellent question. I would look at '23 as kind of getting us level set -- and I think the investments we will utilize in '24 and '25 will be more basic. You're always investing in the business, but it won't be anything of the magnitude that we're tackling now.

    很好的問題。我會把 23 年看作是讓我們達到水平的一種方式——我認為我們將在 24 年和 25 年利用的投資將更加基礎。你一直在投資業務,但它不會是我們現在正在處理的任何規模。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Got it. And then the second question is just in a lot of retail turnarounds in the past, there's a natural limit to how much change a new management team can induce in a short period of time. Do you think that could be a challenge as you've kind of settled in at the Dollar Tree, Family Dollar operation at this point, Rick?

    知道了。然後第二個問題只是在過去的許多零售轉型中,新的管理團隊在短時間內能夠帶來多少變化自然是有限度的。你認為這可能是一個挑戰,因為你現在已經在 Dollar Tree,Family Dollar 操作中安頓下來了,Rick?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Another great question. The more time I spend here, I'll make a couple of observations for you, Scot. It's becoming really clear to me the composition of the new team married with the older team, there's a tremendous amount of experience here. And we believe that experience is going to help us drive -- to drive to get things done faster. Then you couple that with an organization the Family Dollar and Dollar Tree organization. I have never seen the willingness to accept change like I'm seeing here.

    另一個很好的問題。我在這裡待的時間越長,我就會為你做一些觀察,Scot。我越來越清楚新團隊與老團隊的組成,這裡有豐富的經驗。我們相信經驗將幫助我們推動——推動更快地完成工作。然後你將其與一個組織 Family Dollar 和 Dollar Tree 組織結合起來。我從未見過像我在這裡看到的那樣願意接受改變。

  • The 207,000 people in this company are dying to be high performers, and they believe in what we're doing. And they're seeing -- are the investments we've made so far in price and wage, store investments we've made in terms of the quality of the facilities, the employees are seeing that they're seeing those changes. They're seeing them in sales and their viewing it as all positive.

    這家公司的 207,000 名員工都渴望成為高績效者,他們相信我們正在做的事情。他們看到了——我們到目前為止在價格和工資方面所做的投資,我們在設施質量方面所做的商店投資,員工們正在看到他們正在看到這些變化。他們在銷售中看到了他們,並且認為這一切都是積極的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll now move to the next question from Krisztina Katai from Deutsche Bank.

    謝謝。我們現在轉到德意志銀行的 Krisztina Katai 的下一個問題。

  • Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

    Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

  • I wanted to just follow up on the market share Family Dollar. I mean, certainly, it has been challenged over the years, but it does seem that with price and store investments that is actually starting to change. So a question on traffic, which remained negative on a year-over-year basis but also multiyear. So how important is it to inflect positive for the model to work here? And how do you envision arriving there? Like what are the most critical components of the strategy to actually unlock that?

    我只想跟進 Family Dollar 的市場份額。我的意思是,當然,它多年來一直受到挑戰,但看起來價格和商店投資確實開始發生變化。所以關於流量的問題,它在同比基礎上仍然是負面的,但也是多年的。那麼,對於模型在這里工作來說,改變積極因素有多重要?你如何設想到達那裡?比如真正解鎖戰略的最關鍵組成部分是什麼?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean I think as I reflect on what you're asking here, the most important thing we can do is maintain consistent store standards and execute against our operating model. We have -- we know what to do and I think if you look what's taking place, the consumer is responding to it and they're responding to it in terms of a bigger share of their wallet, they're responding in terms of market share. And all of the initiatives that we are putting in place, Krisztina, are all designed for that store experience. Even if you look at what we're doing with labor, we're not trying to take labor out of the store. We're trying to eliminate work so we could spend that on more customer-facing activities.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為當我反思你在這裡提出的問題時,我們能做的最重要的事情就是保持一致的商店標準並按照我們的運營模式執行。我們已經 - 我們知道該怎麼做,我想如果你看看正在發生的事情,消費者正在對此做出回應,他們正在以更大的錢包份額來回應它,他們正在根據市場做出回應分享。 Krisztina,我們正在實施的所有舉措都是為這種商店體驗而設計的。即使你看一下我們在勞動力方面所做的事情,我們也不會試圖將勞動力從商店中抽走。我們正在努力減少工作,以便我們可以將其用於更多面向客戶的活動。

  • Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

    Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

  • That's great. And just a quick follow-up. Again, regarding Family Dollar, but can you just touch on in-stock levels? How is that improving since the new team has been in place? And how far are we from optimal levels of in-stocks?

    那太棒了。并快速跟進。同樣,關於 Family Dollar,但你能談談庫存水平嗎?自從新團隊就位以來,情況如何改善?我們離最佳庫存水平還有多遠?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I would say one of the key initiatives in this building is the in-stock level at Family Dollar. Several things are happening. A lot of the manufacturers have retailers on allocation. So if you order 100 cases, you might get 65. And that is affecting everybody right now.

    是的。我想說這座大樓的關鍵舉措之一是 Family Dollar 的庫存水平。有幾件事正在發生。許多製造商都有零售商分配。所以如果你訂購 100 箱,你可能會得到 65 箱。這正在影響每個人。

  • The other issue we are -- we have discovered, we've had for a long period of time is we use a perpetual inventory system and if that system is not right, if it's not showing the on-hand quantities properly, the system will order product. So we're going through a process now of truing that up but I will reiterate one of the -- and people are tired of me talking about it around here, in-stock is one of our key initiatives.

    我們發現的另一個問題——我們已經發現,很長一段時間以來我們一直在使用永續盤存系統,如果該系統不正確,如果它沒有正確顯示現有數量,系統將訂購產品。所以我們現在正在經歷一個調整的過程,但我會重申其中一個 - 人們已經厭倦了我在這裡談論它,庫存是我們的關鍵舉措之一。

  • Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

    Krisztina Katai - Research Associate

  • Right. Thank you so much. Best of luck.

    正確的。太感謝了。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Anthony Chukumba from Loop Capital Markets.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

  • Good to hear you're recovering from the COVID. So I just wanted to clarify, you talked about those wage investments. Can you just walk through that again? Because I wasn't quite sure, I think you said $2 an hour, but I wasn't sure on the sequencing of that. So I just wanted to better understand that.

    很高興聽到您正在從 COVID 中康復。所以我只想澄清一下,你談到了那些工資投資。你能再走一遍嗎?因為我不太確定,我想你說的是每小時 2 美元,但我不確定它的順序。所以我只是想更好地理解這一點。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, sir. We're doing that market by market. And what we're looking at is not only the hourly wages, which is where the bulk of the investment is. We're also looking at coverage to ensure we have the proper amount of coverage and then we're also looking at what I would call the field team, the store manager and the district manager. We do know, and it's proven that when we have the right wage structure, we increased our retention and our turnover has been pretty astronomical and we're seeing that slow down. We know we get better shrink, we know we get better store standards and we get better morale. And that all leads to better execution, which the customer sees on the shelf when they're in the store. So it's a broad-based approach.

    是的先生。我們正在一個市場一個市場地做。我們關注的不僅僅是小時工資,這是大部分投資所在。我們也在考慮覆蓋範圍以確保我們有適當的覆蓋範圍,然後我們也在考慮我稱之為現場團隊、商店經理和地區經理的內容。我們確實知道,而且事實證明,當我們擁有正確的工資結構時,我們會增加留用率,我們的營業額一直是天文數字,而且我們看到這種情況正在放緩。我們知道我們的收縮率得到了改善,我們知道我們的商店標準得到了改善,我們的士氣得到了提高。而這一切都會帶來更好的執行力,客戶在店內時會在貨架上看到這些執行力。所以這是一個基礎廣泛的方法。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

  • Got it. Look forward to seeing you in June.

    知道了。期待六月與您相見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll now move to our next question from Michael Lasser from UBS.

    我們現在將轉到來自瑞銀的 Michael Lasser 的下一個問題。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • So Rick, the message today and what it's been for the last few quarters is, look, we're going to burden the cost structure with a lot of investments to get this business to where it needs to be, and we're going to frame and quantify what the return on these investments is going to be at some later date. So could you give at least a framework on what you expect the return on these investments to how you expect them to flow in terms of timing and the nature of how the return on investment is going to look, if it's just sales leverage on fixed cost, it may take quite a bit of time for the enterprise to get back to the operating margin level that it achieved historically.

    所以里克,今天的信息以及過去幾個季度的信息是,看,我們將通過大量投資來增加成本結構的負擔,以使這項業務達到所需的水平,我們將確定並量化這些投資在以後某一天的回報率。那麼,如果只是固定成本的銷售槓桿,你能否至少給出一個框架,說明你期望這些投資的回報是什麼,以及你期望它們在時間和投資回報的性質方面如何流動? ,企業可能需要相當長的時間才能恢復到歷史上達到的營業利潤率水平。

  • And as part of that, for the $400 million that you're investing this year, how does that break down between those wage investments that are more structural in nature and the maintenance and repairs that are perceived to be more onetime in nature?

    作為其中的一部分,對於您今年投資的 4 億美元,如何在本質上更具結構性的工資投資與被認為本質上更一次性的維護和維修之間進行分解?

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • Thank you, Michael. This is Jeff. As we think about the returns, and Rick had indicated earlier, there are a number of interdependencies that are related to these investments. So as you can imagine, we are a lot of these investments are complementary to what we're doing with our merchandising and our other store initiatives. Those interdependencies are dependent upon us being able to execute against this against all 16,000 stores, and it will take time through the course of 2023 to accomplish that. We have seen early on at the back half of 2022, some early returns and some tests that we've done. So we're confident that we will have an improvement in returns in future years.

    謝謝你,邁克爾。這是傑夫。當我們考慮回報時,Rick 之前曾指出,這些投資存在許多相互依存關係。所以你可以想像,我們有很多這些投資是對我們在商品銷售和其他商店計劃方面所做的補充。這些相互依存關係取決於我們是否能夠針對所有 16,000 家商店執行此操作,而這需要 2023 年的時間才能實現。我們早在 2022 年下半年就看到了一些早期回報和我們已經完成的一些測試。因此,我們有信心未來幾年的回報會有所改善。

  • But between the interdependency as well as, quite honestly, trying to execute this and what we are all seeing as a somewhat uncertain macroeconomic environment. The combination of these 2 things, we believe that the impacts of this year will be minimal. We're saying it is minimal because it is not any relevant level for us to actually speak any specifics to it at this point in time.

    但在相互依存之間,以及老實說,試圖執行這一點與我們都看到的有點不確定的宏觀經濟環境之間。結合這兩件事,我們相信今年的影響將是最小的。我們說它是最小的,因為在這個時間點,我們實際上沒有任何相關的級別來談論它的任何細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now move to our next question from John Heinbockel from Guggenheim Securities.

    我們現在將轉到古根海姆證券公司的 John Heinbockel 的下一個問題。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • How are you?

    你好嗎?

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • Good, sir.

    好的,先生。

  • John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

    John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst

  • Excellent. Looking forward to seeing you again. Can you touch on, right, the consumable opportunity at Dollar Tree right? I know historically, it's not been a huge consumable business because of the price point limitations. How do you think about that opportunity, right, in terms of getting MPP rolled out coolers everywhere expanding that beyond right, the 3 coolers. And then when you think about guarding against going too far, right, in terms of either mix or cannibalizing FDO if that's an issue?

    出色的。期待再次見到你。你能談談 Dollar Tree 的消費品機會嗎?我知道從歷史上看,由於價格點的限制,它並不是一個巨大的消耗品業務。你如何看待這個機會,對吧,就讓 MPP 在各地推出冷卻器而言,將其擴展到右邊,即 3 個冷卻器。然後當你考慮防止走得太遠時,對吧,在混合或蠶食 FDO 方面,如果這是一個問題?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, great question. I think as I reflect on the consumables, the $3, $4 and $5 frozen food is a perfect example of there is a -- there's an appetite for it in the stores. I do think it's a balance, but I will say this, consumables drive transactions. And what we have to figure out is how to get a consumable item and a nonconsumable item in the basket together and grow the basket. And that's the challenge right now. So as we look at consumables, John, it's going to be a very selective approach. Hey, this sounds silly, but we introduced Bread into Dollar Tree over the last quarter. We put Ice in Dollar Tree over the last quarter, and they're doing very, very well. And we've done it without offsetting the mix in the store. So it's a methodical process. But I think what's important here is that it's nothing but opportunity if we can manage our way through it.

    是的,很好的問題。我認為,當我反思消耗品時,3 美元、4 美元和 5 美元的冷凍食品就是一個很好的例子——商店裡有對它的胃口。我確實認為這是一種平衡,但我要說的是,消耗品驅動交易。而我們要弄清楚的是,如何把籃子裡的一個消耗品和一個非消耗品放在一起,把籃子養大。這就是現在的挑戰。因此,當我們查看消耗品時,約翰,這將是一種非常有選擇性的方法。嘿,這聽起來很傻,但我們在上個季度將 Bread 引入了 Dollar Tree。我們在上個季度將 Ice 放入 Dollar Tree,他們做得非常非常好。而且我們已經做到了,而沒有抵消商店中的組合。所以這是一個有條不紊的過程。但我認為這裡重要的是,如果我們能夠設法度過難關,那麼這就是機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Paul Lejuez from Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Brandon Babcock Cheatham - Analyst

    Brandon Babcock Cheatham - Analyst

  • Hi everyone, this is Brandon Cheatham on for Paul. I want to dig in on the freight cost. Just curious if you can expand on why wouldn't that be a benefit in real time spot rates are below where you contracted. I just want to imagine you'd be able to go back to your business partners and negotiate something that looks a little bit more like the freight costs that are being experienced on the spot market. So just curious if you can expand on some of the dynamics there and the timing of that benefit this year and next year?

    大家好,我是 Paul 的 Brandon Cheatham。我想了解一下運費。只是好奇您是否可以擴展為什麼實時即期匯率低於合同規定的匯率不會帶來好處。我只是想想像您能夠回到您的業務合作夥伴並協商一些看起來更像現貨市場上所經歷的運費的東西。所以只是好奇你是否可以擴展那裡的一些動態以及今年和明年的收益時間?

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • Yes. So there's a couple of pieces to this. First off, our teams are always going back to our supplier partners and looking for ways to reduce our costs where that is available. And to the extent that later they are and given our volumes and sort of our scale to the extent that we can do so, we'll take advantage of that. But part of the challenge also for us is that a large portion of our contracts, about 60% of all the contracted business that we have for any particular year right now. About 60% of that is long-term charter or contracted rates. And that's the reason why those contracts and charters do not roll off until starting late 2024 or 2025.

    是的。所以這有幾個部分。首先,我們的團隊總是回到我們的供應商合作夥伴,並尋找降低成本的方法。並且在一定程度上,他們會在我們可以做到的範圍內考慮到我們的數量和規模,我們將利用它。但我們面臨的部分挑戰是,我們的大部分合同,約占我們目前任何特定年份的所有合同業務的 60%。其中大約 60% 是長期包機或合同費率。這就是為什麼這些合同和章程要到 2024 年底或 2025 年才開始生效的原因。

  • The other element of this is that we capitalize our freight into our inventory cost. So in any one particular year, to the extent that our inventory is turning, let's say, 4x, you've got that portion that is going to roll over to the next year as part of your capitalized cost. So the combination of those things, so it's going to be the timing of contract expiration and renegotiation. It's going to be the carryover from 1 year to the next are the 2 reasons why for us, we have more of a back-ended loaded benefit of freight in 2023 that we'll be carrying over into 2024. But then also, you have a further continuation of freight cost reductions as those other contracts roll off.

    另一個因素是我們將運費資本化為我們的庫存成本。因此,在任何一年中,如果我們的庫存周轉率達到 4 倍,那麼您就有一部分將作為資本化成本的一部分結轉至下一年。所以這些事情的結合,所以這將是合同到期和重新談判的時間。這將是從 1 年到下一年的結轉是我們的兩個原因,我們在 2023 年有更多的後端裝載收益,我們將結轉到 2024 年。但是,你也有隨著其他合同的推出,運費成本進一步下降。

  • Brandon Babcock Cheatham - Analyst

    Brandon Babcock Cheatham - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. Best of luck.

    這很有幫助。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kelly Bania from BMO Capital.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Kelly Bania。

  • Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst

    Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst

  • Wondering if we can just talk a little bit more about the operating expense investment in particular, the wages. How much of the $430 million is wages and you called out the $2 increase in your labor rates. Just curious if you can help us understand where this brings your average, your starting wage how would that compare to peers once this is implemented? And does this bring you in line with peers or get ahead of the rest of the industry?

    想知道我們是否可以多談談運營費用投資,特別是工資。 4.3 億美元中有多少是工資,你要求增加 2 美元的勞動費率。只是好奇您是否可以幫助我們了解這會給您帶來什麼平均水平,一旦實施,您的起薪與同行相比如何?這會讓您與同行保持一致還是領先於其他行業?

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • I appreciate your question because I realized I didn't answer the $430 question earlier, so I apologize. Of the $430 million, about 2/3 of that is related to wage and wage-related items. The delta, if you will, is around setting the store standards, what we're doing in sort of standards that we're doing IT, what we're doing in our supply chain. As it relates to our wage rates of $2, it definitely brings us more competitive in the marketplace as it closes the gap. We believe that, once again, it's not only closing the gap on hourly wages, but then it's also for us collectively bringing us more competitive as it relates to the field leadership teams. We haven't provided any sort of average hourly rate, but it is about a 20% increase over the course of the 2 years that $2 would represent.

    感謝您的提問,因為我意識到我之前沒有回答 430 美元的問題,所以我深表歉意。在這 4.3 億美元中,約有 2/3 與工資和與工資相關的項目有關。三角洲,如果你願意的話,是圍繞設定商店標準,我們正在做的事情是我們正在做的標準,我們正在做的是我們在供應鏈中所做的事情。由於它與我們 2 美元的工資率相關,它無疑使我們在市場上更具競爭力,因為它縮小了差距。我們再次相信,這不僅縮小了時薪方面的差距,而且還讓我們集體提升了我們在現場領導團隊方面的競爭力。我們沒有提供任何類型的平均小時費率,但 2 美元代表的 2 年內增加了約 20%。

  • Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst

    Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And just another one on freight. The comments you provided are very helpful, but you've outlined sort of $2 in freight really over the next couple of years. I guess the question is, would that be a would that reflect a full recovery of the significant increase in freight costs that you've had over the last few years? Or is that assuming only a partial recovery.

    好的。這很有幫助。還有一個關於貨運的。您提供的評論非常有幫助,但您已經概述了未來幾年實際運費為 2 美元的情況。我想問題是,這是否反映了過去幾年運費顯著增加的情況已完全恢復?或者是假設僅部分恢復。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • It would only be a partial recovery. There's a number of factors to this. One, freight rates have not gone back to 2019 levels in its entirety. Also, as you think about freight, there are really 3 components of freight and everyone seems to want to focus only on the transatlantic portion. But there's import and -- I'm sorry, inbound and outbound freight also, which is ultimately included in all of this. And those particular rates you have not seen a significant reduction or return back to 2019 as driver costs, chassis costs, fuel, all those components continue to be at more elevated rates versus 2019. So as we look at these freight cost reductions in its entirety, we do not -- we're not forecasting this is going to recover that which we would have seen in comparison to 2019.

    這只是部分恢復。這有很多因素。第一,運費並沒有完全回到 2019 年的水平。此外,當您考慮貨運時,貨運實際上有 3 個組成部分,每個人似乎都只想關注跨大西洋部分。但是有進口 - 對不起,還有進出港運費,最終都包含在所有這些中。由於司機成本、底盤成本、燃料,與 2019 年相比,所有這些組件的費率繼續上漲,因此您沒有看到顯著降低或回到 2019 年的那些特定費率。因此,當我們從整體上看這些運費成本的降低時,我們沒有 - 我們沒有預測這將恢復我們與 2019 年相比所看到的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We'll now move to -- apologize please go ahead. We will now move to our next to Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group.

    謝謝。我們現在開始-- 抱歉,請繼續。我們現在將轉到 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Joe Feldman 旁邊。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • I had a question about the investments that you guys are making, you've outlined both the Dollar Tree side, the Family Dollar side. As you think of store improvement, presumably, it's more on the Family Dollar side, but I'm just curious how you balance the investments between the 2 and how you decide where to allocate to each brand and where you feel there's more need for store improvement. Is it -- because it sounded like Dollar Tree actually could use some store improvement, too, which I think I was a little surprised by, but maybe you could address that issue?

    我對你們正在進行的投資有疑問,你們已經概述了 Dollar Tree 方面和 Family Dollar 方面。當你想到商店改進時,大概更多的是在 Family Dollar 方面,但我很好奇你如何平衡兩者之間的投資,以及你如何決定分配給每個品牌的位置以及你認為更需要商店的地方改進。是嗎 - 因為聽起來 Dollar Tree 實際上也可以使用一些商店改進,我覺得我有點驚訝,但也許你可以解決這個問題?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I'll take that, Jeff, and then you can jump in. The first thing I want to say is we believe in the long-term earnings power of both banners and we think there's potential there, and I look forward to sharing that with everybody on the Analyst Day. I think if we are honest with ourselves, which we are, the facilities in both banners need work in terms of the quality of the gondolas, floor care, ceiling care, lights, I can go down the list that applies to both banners.

    是的,我接受了,傑夫,然後你就可以加入了。我想說的第一件事是我們相信這兩個橫幅的長期盈利能力,我們認為那裡有潛力,我期待著分享在分析師日與每個人一起。我認為,如果我們對自己誠實,我們確實如此,兩個旗幟的設施都需要在吊船質量、地板護理、天花板護理、燈光方面進行改進,我可以列出適用於兩個旗幟的清單。

  • I think when you look at the difference between the 2 banners and what shows up in one versus the other, in terms of store standards is Dollar Tree has no planograms in it. So it's incredibly easy just to put stuff on the shelf. And a lot of sins get covered up when you do that. Family dollar, every square inch of that thing when we get done by the middle of the year, we'll be playing to grant. And out of stocks, rusty shelves and more problems show up when you have a planogram based merchandising strategy. So I would look at you and say, both stores have a tremendous amount of opportunity. Both banners have a lot of long-term earnings power. So it's really not a balance. It's more about getting it done in both.

    我認為,當您查看 2 個橫幅之間的差異以及一個與另一個橫幅之間的區別時,就商店標準而言,Dollar Tree 中沒有貨架圖。所以把東西放在架子上是非常容易的。當你這樣做時,很多罪都被掩蓋了。家庭美元,當我們在年中完成時,每一平方英寸的東西,我們都會玩贈款。當您採用基於貨架圖的營銷策略時,就會出現缺貨、生鏽的貨架和更多問題。所以我會看著你說,兩家商店都有巨大的機會。兩個橫幅都有很大的長期盈利能力。所以這真的不是一個平衡點。更重要的是在兩者中完成它。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. That's helpful. And Rick, you had mentioned earlier that you're seeing that trade down or trade in from higher income consumers, which I know we've all heard about and are seeing it as well. But how does the health of the consumer factor into your forecast this year? And how you see the consumer health playing out? That would be great.

    知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。里克,你之前提到過你看到高收入消費者的交易降價或交易,我知道我們都聽說過並且也看到了。但是消費者的健康狀況如何影響您今年的預測?您如何看待消費者的健康狀況?那太好了。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean what we're seeing is the consumer making $80,000 a year is trading down. And that's -- timing is everything. We're doing better on so many fronts with a long way to go. They're having an experience they can relate to. But as far as planning for that in our outlook, no, we don't do that.

    是的。我的意思是我們看到的是每年賺取 80,000 美元的消費者正在下降。那就是——時間就是一切。我們在很多方面都做得更好,還有很長的路要走。他們正在經歷可以與之相關的經歷。但就我們的展望而言,不,我們不會那樣做。

  • Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

    Joseph Isaac Feldman - Senior MD, Assistant Director of Research & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. Good luck this quarter.

    知道了。好的。祝這個季度好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now take our next question from Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

    我們現在將接受來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman 的下一個問題。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • Two-parter on Family Dollar. First, on the comp, we would have expected it to be more traffic than ticket given some of the price investments. It's the opposite. So maybe related to that last question to diagnose how the customer is spending and maybe give us a peak on the basket composition? And then second, it's a little bit of a twist on what was asked before. There is a step change that should happen in Family Dollar with EBIT and margin. Your comps are inflecting. Obviously, the business isn't really generating a lot of profit. I know there's a lot of assumption in that, but curious what's the assumption that needs to happen for the profit that you have to keep comping at this rate? Or there is some profit or is there some profit unlock?

    Family Dollar 兩人合作。首先,在競爭中,考慮到一些價格投資,我們預計它的流量會比門票多。恰恰相反。所以可能與最後一個問題有關,以診斷客戶的消費方式,並可能給我們一個籃子構成的峰值?其次,這與之前提出的問題有點不同。 Family Dollar 的息稅前利潤和利潤率應該會發生重大變化。你的曲目正在變化。顯然,該業務並沒有真正產生大量利潤。我知道這裡面有很多假設,但好奇的是,你必須以這個速度繼續競爭才能獲得利潤的假設是什麼?或者有一些利潤或者有一些利潤解鎖?

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • So in terms of the composition of the basket, like every other consumable retailer, we're seeing the shift toward more consumables. I do think that -- So the basket is increasing.

    因此,就購物籃的構成而言,與其他所有消耗品零售商一樣,我們看到了向更多消耗品的轉變。我確實認為——所以籃子在增加。

  • Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

    Jeffrey A. Davis - CFO

  • So there's 2 things, if I could maybe add to that. One, as it relates to the -- one, quality of merchandising, the opportunities we're presenting. But also from a pricing perspective, the work that we've done, there's been a multipoint reduction against the market, if you will, in our pricing to gain parity as Mike -- excuse me, as Rick has said, with respect to our competitive sets as well as widening the gap of grocery and convenience. So the combination of those 2 things is very encouraging for us as it relates to improved traffic as well as being able to drive still ticket at those lower prices on a year-over-year basis. And then as it relates to Family Dollar and its ability to generate greater levels of profitability, there is somewhat of a step function that's going on right now with these accelerated investments. And it's more exacerbated against Family Dollar P&L because of its overall unit economics versus that of Dollar Tree, as you well recognized.

    所以有兩件事,如果我可以添加的話。一,因為它與 - 一,商品銷售的質量,我們提供的機會有關。但同樣從定價的角度來看,我們所做的工作,如果你願意的話,我們的定價與市場相比已經多點減少,以獲得與邁克的平價 - 對不起,正如里克所說,關於我們的競爭組合以及擴大雜貨店和便利店的差距。因此,這兩件事的結合對我們來說是非常令人鼓舞的,因為它與改善交通有關,並且能夠以同比較低的價格開出靜止票。然後,由於它與 Family Dollar 及其產生更高水平盈利能力的能力相關,因此這些加速投資目前正在發揮某種階梯作用。正如您所熟知的那樣,由於其整體單位經濟學與 Dollar Tree 相比,它對 Family Dollar P&L 的影響更大。

  • We believe that as we continue to drive greater productivity from a top line perspective, improve -- simplify our stores and its operating procedures such that we can further leverage off of the existing base that we're building up. We believe that we will be able to drive higher levels of profitability. The last piece is from a margin perspective, gross margin perspective, the things that Larry is doing, we're talking about from a private label additions that, that will also help us from a gross margin. So top line sales, gross margin improvement and then leverage against some of these expenses that we are now incurring over the longer period of time.

    我們相信,隨著我們繼續從頂線角度提高生產力,改進 - 簡化我們的商店及其運營程序,以便我們可以進一步利用我們正在建立的現有基礎。我們相信,我們將能夠推動更高水平的盈利能力。最後一部分是從利潤率的角度,毛利率的角度來看,拉里正在做的事情,我們正在談論的是從私人標籤添加,這也將幫助我們提高毛利率。因此,頂線銷售、毛利率提高,然後利用我們現在在較長時間內產生的其中一些費用。

  • Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

    Richard W. Dreiling - Executive Chairman & CEO

  • If I could add one thing. I think the key takeaway on what has been said is there is no structural problems with either [Van]. It's all fixable, and we know how to fix it.

    如果我可以添加一件事。我認為上述內容的關鍵要點是 [Van] 都沒有結構性問題。這一切都是可以修復的,我們知道如何修復它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We have reached our allotment time. I will turn it over to Randy Guiler for final comments.

    謝謝你們,女士們,先生們。我們已經到了我們的分配時間。我會將其轉交給 Randy Guiler 以徵求最終意見。

  • Randy Guiler - VP of IR

    Randy Guiler - VP of IR

  • Sure, Dave, thank you very much. Thank you for joining us on today's call, and have a good day. Take care.

    當然,戴夫,非常感謝你。感謝您參加今天的電話會議,祝您有美好的一天。小心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。