美元樹 (DLTR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Dollar Tree Third Quarter Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Dollar Tree 第三季度財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中。

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Randy Guiler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Randy Guiler。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our call to discuss results for Dollar Tree's Third Fiscal Quarter 2022. With me on today's call are Executive Chairman, Rick Dreiling; President and CEO, Mike Witynski; and CFO, Jeff Davis.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，歡迎來電討論 Dollar Tree 2022 年第三財季的業績。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有執行主席 Rick Dreiling；總裁兼首席執行官 Mike Witynski；和首席財務官傑夫戴維斯。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that various remarks that we will make about our expectations, plans and prospects for the company constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially from those included in these forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們將就我們對公司的期望、計劃和前景發表的各種評論構成根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》規定的安全港條款的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含的結果存在重大差異。

For information on the risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results, please refer to the Risk Factors, Business and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations sections in our annual reports on Form 10-K filed March 15, 2022, our Form 10-Q for the most recently ended fiscal quarter, our most recent press release and Form 8-K and other filings we make from time to time with the SEC. We caution against reliance on these forward-looking statements made today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise these statements, except as may be required by law.

有關可能影響我們實際結果的風險和不確定性的信息，請參閱我們於 2022 年 3 月 15 日提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中的風險因素、業務和管理層對財務狀況和經營業績的討論和分析部分，我們最近結束的財政季度的 10-Q 表格、我們最近的新聞稿和 8-K 表格以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。我們告誡不要依賴今天所做的這些前瞻性陳述，並且我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些陳述的義務，除非法律可能要求。

Following our prepared remarks, Mike and Jeff will take your questions. (Operator Instructions)

在我們準備好的發言之後，邁克和傑夫將回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Rick.

我現在將把電話轉給里克。

Thank you, Randy. And good morning, everyone. In my short time here, I have been incredibly impressed with the team's overall enthusiasm and willingness to accept and embrace much needed change. As I stated last quarter, we are making change happen to create long-term shareholder value and enable the next wave of profitable growth for Family Dollar and Dollar Tree.

謝謝你，蘭迪。大家早上好。在我在這裡的短暫時間裡，我對團隊的整體熱情以及接受和擁抱急需的變革的意願印象深刻。正如我上個季度所說，我們正在做出改變，以創造長期股東價值，並為 Family Dollar 和 Dollar Tree 帶來下一波盈利增長。

The company is moving at a rapid pace. We have done a remarkable job of rebuilding our executive team and with retail thought leaders that are subject matter experts and eager to be part of this transformational journey that we have embarked on. In a short period of time, all of our C-suite positions have been filled as well as new leadership roles dedicated to a number of key areas, including diversity, sustainability, compliance and communication. Last quarter, we shared news of the material price investments made at Family Dollar. These actions got on price parity with key competitors and widen our spread to grocery and drug stores. Customers are recognizing this commitment to value, which contributed to a 4% comp sales increase and the segment's first quarterly traffic increase in 3 years.

公司正在快速發展。我們在重建我們的執行團隊和零售思想領袖方面做得非常出色，他們是主題專家並且渴望成為我們已經開始的這一轉型之旅的一部分。在很短的時間內，我們所有的 C-suite 職位都已填補，並且新的領導角色專門負責許多關鍵領域，包括多樣性、可持續性、合規性和溝通。上個季度，我們分享了 Family Dollar 進行材料價格投資的消息。這些行動與主要競爭對手實現了價格平價，並擴大了我們在雜貨店和藥店的傳播範圍。客戶正在認識到這種對價值的承諾，這促成了 4% 的銷售額增長和該部門 3 年來的首次季度流量增長。

The teams are focused on improving store standards. They are committed to clean them up, straighten them up and fill them up. Improving sales productivity is a vital component of the Family Dollar turnaround, and we are extremely focused on driving sales per square foot, unit sales growth and transaction count growth. We are a company with more than 16,200 stores. But the way I prefer to look at this is that we are really 2 growth companies with 8,100-plus stores each. Both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar are unique businesses with 2 different go-to-market strategies. Having 2 distinct large segments provides us flexibility like none other in value retail and both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar have extraordinary opportunity for growth and improvement over time.

這些團隊專注於提高商店標準。他們致力於清理它們，整理它們並填滿它們。提高銷售效率是 Family Dollar 扭虧為盈的重要組成部分，我們非常專注於推動每平方英尺的銷售額、單位銷售額增長和交易數量增長。我們是一家擁有 16,200 多家商店的公司。但我更喜歡看待這個問題的方式是，我們實際上是兩家成長型公司，每家都有 8,100 多家門店。 Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar 都是獨特的企業，具有兩種不同的上市策略。擁有兩個截然不同的大型細分市場為我們提供了價值零售方面獨一無二的靈活性，而且隨著時間的推移，Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar 都有非凡的增長和改進機會。

We are prioritizing our areas of growth, and we are moving with urgency. The new management team is in-house. We've taken aggressive action on price. The advertising and marketing cadence has been enhanced. We are in the midst of a cultural transformation throughout the organization, designed to enhance our associate and customer experience. Store standards are improving. Years of sales productivity opportunities are ahead of us and work on supply chain and technology initiatives will enhance us to achieve our ultimate goals. I know many are eager to learn more about all of our plans, including the timing, the magnitude and the expected returns. These details will be shared at our spring Investor Day in a more structured format as our new leadership team has assembled more time together.

我們正在優先考慮我們的增長領域，我們正在緊迫地前進。新的管理團隊在內部。我們在價格上採取了積極的行動。廣告和營銷節奏得到加強。我們正處於整個組織的文化轉型之中，旨在提升我們的員工和客戶體驗。商店標準正在提高。多年的銷售生產力機會擺在我們面前，供應鍊和技術計劃方面的工作將幫助我們實現最終目標。我知道很多人都渴望更多地了解我們所有的計劃，包括時間、規模和預期回報。這些細節將在我們的春季投資者日以更有條理的形式分享，因為我們的新領導團隊有更多的時間在一起。

We are entirely committed on taking the right steps to transform this organization for the long-term. On behalf of our directors, I want to thank each of our associates for their commitment, dedication and effort, especially for their willingness to embrace much needed change. This is a journey that I am thrilled to be part of.

我們完全致力於採取正確的步驟來長期改造該組織。我要代表我們的董事感謝我們每一位員工的承諾、奉獻和努力，尤其是他們願意接受急需的變革。這是一段旅程，我很高興能參與其中。

I'll now turn the call over to Mike.

我現在將電話轉給邁克。

Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. As you have seen in recent months, we have announced a number of executives have joined Dollar Tree. I am excited about the caliber and quality of the leadership team we now have in place. This team will lead our company through the next evolution of growth. We are committed to transforming our culture, meeting our shoppers and associates' needs, improving store productivity and efficiencies and delivering improved long-term operating results.

謝謝你，里克，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。正如您在最近幾個月看到的那樣，我們已經宣布多位高管加入了 Dollar Tree。我對我們現在的領導團隊的才能和素質感到興奮。這個團隊將帶領我們的公司經歷下一個發展演變。我們致力於轉變我們的文化，滿足購物者和員工的需求，提高商店的生產力和效率，並提供更好的長期經營業績。

I am pleased with the team's efforts to deliver solid results for the quarter. Our third quarter sales performance reflects the timely execution of merchandising initiatives to drive our consumables business in this uncertain and inflationary environment. Same-store sales for both segments improved from the prior quarter and delivered sequential monthly improvement throughout the quarter. Shoppers are responding to our new value proposition at Family Dollar and Dollar Tree as we focus on driving both traffic and store productivity.

我對團隊為本季度取得可觀業績所做的努力感到滿意。我們第三季度的銷售業績反映了在這種不確定和通貨膨脹的環境中及時執行商品銷售計劃以推動我們的消耗品業務。這兩個部門的同店銷售額均較上一季度有所改善，並在整個季度實現了連續的月度改善。由於我們專注於推動客流量和商店生產力，購物者正在響應我們在 Family Dollar 和 Dollar Tree 的新價值主張。

With the exception of Q1 and Q2 of 2020 at the initial onset of the pandemic, our 6.5% enterprise comp represents our best quarter since the Family Dollar acquisition. By segment, the comp was comprised of an 8.6% increase for Dollar Tree and a 4.1% increase for Family Dollar. In recent quarters, we refined our strategies at both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar to focus on the traffic-driving consumables side of the business. Our transition to the $1.25 price point has enabled our merchants to greatly enhance value for our shoppers. For the second consecutive quarter, our consumables comp outpaced the discretionary comp at Dollar Tree. The team delivered a 9.3% comp on consumables with key contributors being in food and beverage, snack and cookies and candy.

除了大流行初期的 2020 年第一季度和第二季度外，我們 6.5% 的企業收入是自 Family Dollar 收購以來最好的一個季度。按細分市場劃分，Dollar Tree 增長 8.6%，Family Dollar 增長 4.1%。在最近幾個季度，我們改進了 Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar 的戰略，專注於業務的流量驅動消費品方面。我們過渡到 1.25 美元的價格點使我們的商家能夠為我們的購物者大大提高價值。連續第二個季度，我們的消耗品價格超過了 Dollar Tree 的非必需品價格。該團隊提供了 9.3% 的消耗品補償，主要貢獻者是食品和飲料、零食、餅乾和糖果。

Family Dollar consumables increased 4.7% on a comp basis. Despite the ticket headwinds related to our price actions in Q2, shoppers are clearly recognizing the greater value and are responding to our enhanced advertising initiatives. Importantly, at both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, we saw an acceleration in comp performance throughout the quarter, with October being our strongest month.

Family Dollar 消耗品同比增長 4.7%。儘管與我們在第二季度的價格行動相關的門票逆風，購物者清楚地認識到更大的價值，並對我們增強的廣告計劃做出了回應。重要的是，在 Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar，我們看到整個季度的業績都在加速增長，其中 10 月是我們表現最強勁的月份。

We have a number of key sales-driving initiatives to drive productivity. For Dollar Tree stores, we are continuing to exceed the customer's expectation for value, our merchants do a tremendous job of effectively managing the ever-changing assortment that wows our shoppers, expanding our $3 and $5 offering into more stores. We ended the quarter with our plus assortment in nearly 30% of our Dollar Tree stores, and we'll continue to aggressively expand this initiative in the years ahead. We are currently refining our $3 and $5 assortment as our team operates in an environment of continuous improvement based on learnings. We are developing our frozen assortment to meet our shoppers' family needs as they are looking to save money by dining at home. We are aggressively expanding our offerings of protein, pizza, breakfast items and family sizes at price points that meet their budgets.

我們有許多關鍵的銷售驅動計劃來提高生產力。對於 Dollar Tree 商店，我們不斷超越客戶對價值的期望，我們的商家在有效管理不斷變化的商品種類方面做了大量工作，讓我們的購物者驚嘆不已，將我們的 3 美元和 5 美元產品擴展到更多商店。本季度結束時，我們在近 30% 的 Dollar Tree 商店中提供了更多種類的商品，我們將在未來幾年繼續積極擴大這一舉措。我們目前正在改進 3 美元和 5 美元的分類，因為我們的團隊在基於學習的持續改進環境中運作。我們正在開發冷凍產品以滿足購物者的家庭需求，因為他們希望通過在家用餐來省錢。我們正在以符合預算的價格點積極擴展我們的蛋白質、比薩餅、早餐食品和家庭規模的產品。

We will continue to focus on winning the season. Dollar Tree is a destination for shoppers looking to celebrate holidays, events and seasons. Our offering will be better than last year but not as good as next year as we continue to improve our assortments. Family Dollar, from a pricing perspective, is in the best position in more than a decade. Now that we have taken action to reestablish price parity, we are committed to maintaining our competitiveness.

我們將繼續專注於贏得賽季。 Dollar Tree 是希望慶祝節日、活動和季節的購物者的目的地。我們的產品將比去年好，但不如明年好，因為我們會繼續改進我們的產品種類。從定價角度來看，Family Dollar 處於十多年來的最佳位置。既然我們已採取行動重建價格平價，我們將致力於保持我們的競爭力。

Other Family Dollar initiatives designed to improve sales per square foot, unit sales and transaction count include: improving our store layouts through improved adjacency flow, adding linear square footage, expanding immediate consumption DSD categories and optimizing the beverage and frozen food offering. Developing private brands, we are in the process of growing and improving our private brand performance by providing shoppers more choices and a broader offering of quality products at a greater value. Over time, we believe this will enhance customer loyalty as well as our margin profile.

旨在提高每平方英尺銷售額、單位銷售額和交易數量的其他 Family Dollar 舉措包括：通過改善鄰接流量來改善我們的商店佈局、增加線性平方英尺、擴大即時消費 DSD 類別以及優化飲料和冷凍食品供應。在發展自有品牌方面，我們正在通過為購物者提供更多選擇和更廣泛、更有價值的優質產品來發展和改善我們的自有品牌績效。隨著時間的推移，我們相信這將提高客戶忠誠度以及我們的利潤率。

We are refining our marketing effectiveness to provide customers with convenience, value, variety and an improved shopping experience. We have evolved our print advertising calendar and format to be more relevant to our customers to drive their visit frequency. We are also in the process of relaunching our Smart Coupon program, designed to improve quality, availability, clip rate and redemptions.

我們正在改進我們的營銷效果，為客戶提供便利、價值、多樣性和更好的購物體驗。我們改進了我們的印刷廣告日曆和格式，以便與我們的客戶更加相關，以提高他們的訪問頻率。我們也正在重新啟動我們的智能優惠券計劃，旨在提高質量、可用性、剪輯率和兌換率。

In this changing and dynamic environment, we feel we are implementing the right plans to drive sales productivity, enhance margins and improve efficiencies to enhance the long-term benefits to each of our stakeholders. In October, Jeff Davis joined Dollar Tree as our new CFO. Jeff brings more than 30 years of financial leadership to the organization with much of his experience coming from large retailers, including Walmart, JCPenney and Darden. Jeff is very much focused on value creation through strategic growth and strategic decision support as well as value preservation through governance and efficiency in operations. Jeff has been the company for nearly 2 months, but he is making a difference already. I'll now hand the call over to Jeff to provide more color on Q3 and what's ahead of us.

在這個不斷變化和動態的環境中，我們認為我們正在實施正確的計劃來提高銷售生產力、提高利潤率和效率，從而為我們每個利益相關者帶來長期利益。 10 月，Jeff Davis 加入 Dollar Tree 成為我們的新首席財務官。 Jeff 為該組織帶來了 30 多年的財務領導經驗，他的大部分經驗來自大型零售商，包括沃爾瑪、JCPenney 和 Darden。 Jeff 非常關注通過戰略增長和戰略決策支持創造價值，以及通過治理和運營效率保持價值。 Jeff 已經在公司工作了將近 2 個月，但他已經有所作為。我現在將電話轉給傑夫，以提供更多有關第三季度和我們未來的顏色。

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. I am delighted to join the Dollar Tree team at such a pivotal time. I've been in my seat for almost 8 weeks, and I have experienced tremendous energy and excitement across the entire organization as the team is an embracing change. While the company has been around for decades, I believe we are in the early phase of significantly improving our long-term operating performance. In October, I had an opportunity to meet several of you at store visits and I look forward to connecting with a larger group in the near future. More details to come.

謝謝邁克，大家早上好。我很高興在這樣一個關鍵時刻加入 Dollar Tree 團隊。我已經在我的位置上待了將近 8 週，隨著團隊正在發生巨大變化，我在整個組織中感受到了巨大的活力和興奮。雖然公司已經存在了幾十年，但我相信我們正處於顯著改善長期經營業績的早期階段。 10 月，我有機會在參觀商店時見到了你們中的一些人，我期待在不久的將來與更多的人建立聯繫。更多細節即將到來。

Since Mike and Rick already covered our third quarter sales results, I will now move directly to the discussion of operating income. Unless otherwise stated, all third quarter comparisons are against the same period last year. To supplement my comments, we are introducing a quarterly presentation on our website at corporate.dollartree.com/investors, which outlines several key operating metrics. We hope you will find this additional information helpful to better understand our business.

由於 Mike 和 Rick 已經介紹了我們第三季度的銷售業績，我現在將直接討論營業收入。除非另有說明，否則所有第三季度的比較均與去年同期相比。為了補充我的評論，我們將在我們的網站 corporate.dollartree.com/investors 上推出季度報告，其中概述了幾個關鍵的運營指標。我們希望您會發現這些附加信息有助於更好地了解我們的業務。

Operating income increased 22.8% to $381.3 million or 5.5% of total revenue, a 70 basis point improvement in operating income margin. This was led by a 240 basis point improvement in gross profit margin, partially offset by a 170 basis point increase in our SG&A expense rate.

營業收入增長 22.8% 至 3.813 億美元，佔總收入的 5.5%，營業利潤率提高 70 個基點。這是由於毛利率提高了 240 個基點，部分被我們的 SG&A 費用率提高 170 個基點所抵消。

Gross profit increased 17.5%. The Dollar Tree segment gross margin improved 520 basis points, primarily from higher initial mark-on related to the move to $1.25 price point, lower freight costs and sales leverage, partially offset by greater penetration of lower-margin consumable merchandise and product cost inflation.

毛利增長17.5%。 Dollar Tree 部門的毛利率提高了 520 個基點，這主要是由於與價格上漲至 1.25 美元相關的較高初始加價、較低的運費和銷售槓桿，部分被低利潤消耗品的更大滲透和產品成本通脹所抵消。

Family Dollar's gross margin declined 100 basis points, largely due to a product mix shift and product cost inflation. We expect to see continued pressure across both segments related to the inflationary cost environment and merchandise mix as our consumable sales are expected to continue outpacing discretionary.

Family Dollar 的毛利率下降了 100 個基點，這主要是由於產品組合轉變和產品成本上漲。由於我們的消耗品銷售預計將繼續超過非必需品，因此我們預計這兩個部門將繼續面臨與通脹成本環境和商品組合相關的壓力。

SG&A as a percentage of total revenue increased 170 basis points to 24.4%. The increase is principally related to elevated repairs and maintenance as part of our commitment to improve store standards, investments in store hourly wages and higher inflationary costs across a number of expense categories, including utilities.

SG&A 佔總收入的百分比增加了 170 個基點，達到 24.4%。這一增長主要與作為我們提高商店標準承諾的一部分的維修和維護增加、對商店小時工資的投資以及包括公用事業在內的許多費用類別的更高通貨膨脹成本有關。

Corporate support and other expenses increased 30 basis points to 1.4%, primarily from increased stock compensation expense, higher incentive comp and professional fees. From a bottom line basis, net income improved 23.1% to $266.9 million or $1.20 per diluted share in comparison to $0.96 per diluted share last year.

公司支持和其他費用增加 30 個基點至 1.4%，主要是由於股票補償費用增加、激勵補償和專業費用增加。從底線來看，淨收入增長 23.1% 至 2.669 億美元或每股攤薄收益 1.20 美元，而去年為每股攤薄收益 0.96 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet. My comments reflect balanced comparisons to the end of Q3 2022 versus Q3 2021. Combined cash and cash equivalents totaled $439 million compared to $701 million. The reduction in cash is largely attributed to the repurchase of approximately 2.86 million shares for $397.5 million in Q3 of this year. Inventory increased 31.1%, primarily from inflationary product and freight costs, expansion of $1.25 in multi-price plus inventory and store growth. Also recall last year, shoppers pulled forward purchases well ahead of the holiday season, concerned about product availability, while we were chasing trans-specific deliveries of discretionary products as our inventory levels dip well below normal operating levels. This year, shoppers purchasing behavior appears to be more closely timed to holiday dates.

轉到資產負債表。我的評論反映了 2022 年第三季度末與 2021 年第三季度末的平衡比較。現金和現金等價物總計 4.39 億美元，而 7.01 億美元。現金減少主要是由於今年第三季度以 3.975 億美元回購了約 286 萬股股票。庫存增加 31.1%，主要是由於產品和運費的通貨膨脹，多價商品增加了 1.25 美元，加上庫存和商店的增長。還記得去年，由於我們的庫存水平遠低於正常運營水平，購物者在假期前提前購買，擔心產品的可用性，而我們正在追逐跨性別特定的非必需產品交付。今年，購物者的購買行為似乎更接近假期。

Finally, unit counts are at similar levels to October 2019. Our inventory is fresh. We have limited-dated inventory well within manageable levels. Capital expenditures were [$391.2 million] in the third quarter versus $295.6 million last year. For fiscal 2022, we now expect capital expenditures to total approximately $1.2 billion.

最後，單位數量與 2019 年 10 月的水平相似。我們的庫存是新鮮的。我們的限時庫存在可控範圍內。第三季度的資本支出為 [3.912 億美元]，而去年為 2.956 億美元。對於 2022 財年，我們現在預計資本支出總額約為 12 億美元。

As we look to Q4, we see the following affecting our business. We will anniversary a significant number of Dollar Tree stores, approximately 2,500 in December and 3,000 in January, the transition to the $1.25 price point a year ago. We previously experienced an outsized benefit to comps and margins associated to the transition. The economy continues to pressure middle and low household income customers, resulting in needs-based purchasing. We expect consumables to outperform discretionary, which negatively impacts gross margin. We are cycling advanced child tax credit payments which were distributed mid-month from July to December in 2021.

展望第四季度，我們發現以下因素影響了我們的業務。我們將對大量 Dollar Tree 商店進行週年紀念，12 月大約有 2,500 家，1 月有 3,000 家，過渡到一年前的 1.25 美元價格點。我們以前經歷過與過渡相關的補償和利潤的巨大好處。經濟繼續給中低收入家庭客戶帶來壓力，導致基於需求的購買。我們預計消耗品的表現優於非必需品，這會對毛利率產生負面影響。我們正在循環預付兒童稅收抵免款項，這些款項是在 2021 年 7 月至 12 月的月中發放的。

On a year-over-year basis, we are facing higher costs from suppliers related to this inflationary environment. While at Family Dollar, we do have the flexibility to adjust price. At Dollar Tree, where we are at a fixed price points, it takes us time to adjust quantities and pack sizes for cost changes, which can lead to near-term pressure to margins. We will continue to invest in store and DC standards and expect to have higher year-over-year expenses in repairs and maintenance. In addition to being right on price, we will be right on wage as it continues to be a competitive market for talent.

與去年同期相比，我們面臨著與這種通貨膨脹環境相關的供應商更高的成本。在 Family Dollar，我們確實可以靈活調整價格。在 Dollar Tree，我們處於固定價格點，我們需要時間來調整數量和包裝尺寸以適應成本變化，這可能導致近期利潤壓力。我們將繼續投資於商店和 DC 標準，並預計在維修和保養方面的費用會比去年同期更高。除了在價格上是正確的，我們將在工資上是正確的，因為它仍然是一個競爭激烈的人才市場。

We are raising our sales outlook for the year. Consolidated net sales for the year are now expected to range from $28.14 billion to $28.28 billion compared to our previous outlook range of $27.85 billion to $28.10 billion. We expect to deliver mid-single-digit comp sales increase for the year comprised of a high single-digit increase at Dollar Tree stores and a low single-digit increase in Family Dollar. Selling square footage is expected to grow by approximately 2.8% as we are experiencing supply chain delays related to procuring equipment and fixtures for store openings.

我們正在提高今年的銷售預期。今年的合併淨銷售額預計在 281.4 億美元至 282.8 億美元之間，而我們之前的預期範圍為 278.5 億美元至 281 億美元。我們預計今年的 comp 銷售額將實現中個位數增長，其中包括 Dollar Tree 商店的高個位數增長和 Family Dollar 的低個位數增長。銷售面積預計將增長約 2.8%，因為我們正在經歷與為商店開業採購設備和固定裝置相關的供應鏈延遲。

For Q4, we estimate consolidated net sales will range from $7.54 billion to $7.68 billion based on a mid- to high single-digit increase in same-store sales for the enterprise. At the end of Q2, we expected fiscal 2022 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $7.10 to $7.40. Due to several factors, including, but not limited to, an acceleration of consumable product mix shift and elevated product cost pressure, we expect to be in the lower half of the previous outlook range.

對於第四季度，我們估計綜合淨銷售額將在 75.4 億美元至 76.8 億美元之間，基於企業同店銷售額的中高個位數增長。在第二季度末，我們預計 2022 財年每股攤薄收益將在 7.10 美元至 7.40 美元之間。由於多種因素，包括但不限於消耗品結構轉變的加速和產品成本壓力的增加，我們預計將處於先前展望範圍的下半部分。

Other considerations for our updated 2022 outlook include the following: we expect consolidated depreciation and amortization to be approximately $770 million. Net interest expense is expected to be $30 million in Q4 and $127 million for the year. Our outlook assumes a tax rate up 24.3% for the fourth quarter and 23.7% for fiscal 2022. Weighted average diluted share counts are assumed to be 222.3 million shares for Q4 and 224.2 million shares for the full year. Our outlook does not include any share repurchases. As of October 29, we had $1.85 billion remaining on our existing share repurchase authorization.

我們更新的 2022 年展望的其他考慮因素包括：我們預計綜合折舊和攤銷約為 7.7 億美元。第四季度的淨利息支出預計為 3000 萬美元，全年為 1.27 億美元。我們的展望假設第四季度和 2022 財年的稅率分別上升 24.3% 和 23.7%。加權平均稀釋股數假設第四季度為 2.223 億股，全年為 2.242 億股。我們的展望不包括任何股票回購。截至 10 月 29 日，我們現有的股票回購授權剩餘 18.5 億美元。

I'll now turn the call back to Mike.

我現在將電話轉回給邁克。

Thanks, Jeff. I am proud of our team's efforts. During a period of material organizational change, a disruptive hurricane through the Southeast and macro uncertainty contributing to the highest inflation in 40 years, we delivered increases of 8.1% in sales, 17.5% in gross profit, 22.8% in operating profit and an increase of 25% in EPS. Our results continue to reinforce the relevance of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar to millions of households across North America.

謝謝，傑夫。我為我們團隊的努力感到自豪。在發生重大組織變革、席捲東南部的破壞性颶風和導致 40 年來最高通貨膨脹的宏觀不確定性期間，我們實現了銷售額增長 8.1%、毛利潤增長 17.5%、營業利潤增長 22.8% 以及每股收益 25%。我們的結果繼續加強了 Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar 與北美數百萬家庭的相關性。

As you know, in late June, we announced that a number of executive positions would be changed. I am proud to share that by mid-November, all seats are filled, and we are very confident in the outstanding team we have built. All additions have been successful leaders throughout their careers and bring new, fresh perspectives and will enhance our progress. In addition to the executive changes, last week, we announced new leaders for several key areas of the business, including diversity, sustainability, compliance and communications. I am very confident in the team we have developed and that it will enable us to accelerate progress on our transformational journey.

如您所知，在 6 月下旬，我們宣布了一些高管職位的變動。我很自豪地告訴大家，到 11 月中旬，所有席位都已滿，我們對自己打造的優秀團隊充滿信心。所有新增人員在其職業生涯中都是成功的領導者，他們帶來了新的、新鮮的觀點，並將促進我們的進步。除了高管變動外，上週我們還宣布了業務幾個關鍵領域的新領導人，包括多樣性、可持續性、合規性和溝通。我對我們組建的團隊充滿信心，這將使我們能夠加快轉型之旅的進展。

In the months ahead, we will be refining and prioritizing our plans to ultimately deliver improved operating performance across both segments. At our spring Investor Day, we will provide you with more transparent and comprehensive view into the opportunity ahead us and the path to get there.

在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將完善我們的計劃並確定其優先級，以最終在這兩個部門實現更好的運營績效。在我們的春季投資者日，我們將為您提供更透明和全面的觀點，讓您了解我們面前的機會和實現目標的途徑。

Before we transition to Q&A, I want to sincerely share my gratitude to our associates, especially in Florida and the Carolinas for their efforts during Hurricane Ian at the end of September. Their efforts through the preparation for and the recovery from this devastating storm was critical to countless families and communities we serve. In many cases, our Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores were among the first to reopen to assist customers with products they needed most. Thank you to each of you. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

在我們轉入問答環節之前，我想真誠地感謝我們的同事，尤其是佛羅里達州和卡羅來納州的同事，感謝他們在 9 月底的颶風伊恩期間所做的努力。他們為這場毀滅性風暴做準備並從中恢復的努力對我們服務的無數家庭和社區至關重要。在許多情況下，我們的 Dollar Tree 和 Family Dollar 商店是最先重新開放的商店之一，以幫助客戶獲得他們最需要的產品。謝謝你們每一個人。接線員，我們現在準備好接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) We will take the first question from the line of Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根大通的 Matthew Boss 那裡回答第一個問題。

Great. So maybe first question. At Family Dollar, could you elaborate on the drivers of sequential improvement as the quarter progressed? How much do you think more so of this is tied to the macro or the value trade down behavior versus inning do you think that your company-specific initiatives are in today at Family Dollar?

偉大的。所以也許是第一個問題。在 Family Dollar，您能否詳細說明隨著季度的進展而連續改進的驅動因素？你認為這在多大程度上與宏觀或價值交易下降行為有關，你認為你公司的具體舉措今天在 Family Dollar 中嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. I think it's a combination of everything that you're seeing going on, the pressure on the customer. And then our merchandising team invested the investment we made in getting our prices right to be at parity in the marketplace and then as well as writing more impactful ads and more frequency of our ads. So I think stronger promotion, stronger base pricing and then the work on the assortment in our [H2.5], I think, is meeting the overall macro impact that the customer is seeing on the pressure that they have to try and meet the budget each and every day.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我認為這是你所看到的一切的結合，客戶的壓力。然後，我們的銷售團隊投入了我們所做的投資，使我們的價格在市場上保持一致，然後編寫更有影響力的廣告和更多的廣告頻率。因此，我認為更強的促銷、更強的基礎定價以及我們 [H2.5] 中的分類工作，我認為，正在滿足客戶看到的對他們必須嘗試滿足預算的壓力的整體宏觀影響每一天。

I think that on a customer, we're seeing -- we're seeing continued pressure. We're -- as I've shared, we're seeing more customers come into our segment. And once they're in our segment, these are -- the majority of the customers are at [80,000] and higher household income. But even once they're inside the store, we're seeing shifts in their behavior where they're very consumable and needs-based focused to try and make that budget work and stretch it over the month.

我認為在客戶身上，我們看到了——我們看到了持續的壓力。我們 - 正如我所分享的那樣，我們看到更多的客戶進入我們的細分市場。一旦他們進入我們的細分市場，這些就是 - 大多數客戶的家庭收入在 [80,000] 和更高。但即使他們進入商店，我們也看到他們的行為發生了變化，他們非常容易消耗並且基於需求，專注於嘗試使預算發揮作用並在一個月內延長預算。

We're seeing private brands now for 39 weeks in a row have outpaced national brands, 39 weeks in a row. We have not seen that the prior 5 to 7 years where private brands were outpacing national brands, but it's now been 39 years in a row -- or 39 weeks in a row, I'm sorry. And then we're seeing first in a month business is getting stronger. We're seeing our SNAP and food stamp business is growing, and we continue to see credit as outpacing debit.

我們看到自有品牌已經連續 39 週超過民族品牌，連續 39 週。我們沒有看到過去 5 到 7 年自有品牌超過民族品牌，但現在已經連續 39 年——或者連續 39 週，我很抱歉。然後我們在一個月內第一次看到業務變得越來越強大。我們看到我們的 SNAP 和食品券業務正在增長，我們繼續認為信貸超過借方。

So we do see that shift in the customer coming into our segment, and then when they're in our store, they are shifting into the consumables and needs based to make their budget happen. And I think the work that our merchants are doing are absolutely aligned and helping drive meeting their needs when they're in our store.

所以我們確實看到客戶進入我們的細分市場，然後當他們在我們的商店時，他們正在轉向消耗品和需求，以實現他們的預算。而且我認為我們的商家所做的工作是絕對一致的，並且有助於滿足他們在我們店裡的需求。

Great. And then just at the Dollar Tree banner, what's your overall assessment to date on breaking the box overall? And can you speak to sequential trends with traffic to the banner that you're seeing? Or what's been the reception to Dollar Tree Plus or the rollout of the $3 and the $5 SKUs across the assortment?

偉大的。然後就在 Dollar Tree 橫幅上，你對打破常規的總體評估是什麼？你能談談你看到的橫幅流量的連續趨勢嗎？或者 Dollar Tree Plus 的反響如何，或者 3 美元和 5 美元 SKU 的推出如何？

Yes. I'll start with $1.25. I think overall, our traffic has been very stable, and we saw a slight improvement in Q3 in traffic. But what was more important is throughout 2020 and 2021, our consumable sales continued to decline quarter after quarter because of the product availability and the assortment we just couldn't provide for the customer at that dollar price point. Once we move to the $1.25 throughout this year, our merchant teams have worked hard at bringing in that new assortment, and we have absolutely change that trend. And instead of declining business in consumables it's now accelerating and leading the growth and I believe over time, that will continue to drive traffic into our stores and Dollar Tree.

是的。我將從 1.25 美元開始。我認為總體而言，我們的流量一直非常穩定，我們看到第三季度流量略有改善。但更重要的是，在整個 2020 年和 2021 年，由於產品可用性和我們無法以美元價格為客戶提供的種類，我們的消耗品銷售額逐季下降。一旦我們今年將價格提高到 1.25 美元，我們的商家團隊就會努力引進新的品種，我們徹底改變了這一趨勢。消耗品業務沒有下降，而是正在加速並引領增長，我相信隨著時間的推移，這將繼續推動我們商店和 Dollar Tree 的客流量。

So what I'm really excited about is for the second quarter in a row, consumables have outpaced our discretionary business, and it was 9.3%, 9.4% comp sales, but discretionary is still doing well at over 8%. So we like the business and the reaction we're seeing from the customers based on us being able to have a better assortment at greater values on products they need. And I think as we continue to provide that, that will help stabilize our traffic in the long-term going forward.

因此，我真正感到興奮的是，連續第二個季度，消費品的增長速度超過了我們的非必需品業務，分別為 9.3%、9.4% 和 9.4%，但非必需品仍然表現良好，超過 8%。因此，我們喜歡這項業務以及我們從客戶那裡看到的反應，因為我們能夠以更高的價值對他們需要的產品進行更好的分類。我認為，隨著我們繼續提供這些服務，這將有助於穩定我們未來的長期流量。

On the $3 and $5, we're seeing great response from our customers, especially on the seasonal side of the product. And that's where we think we can continue to refine and grow that business. And then as well, you've also heard us on the frozen food part at the $1.25, with the cost pressures, it's even hard for us to get a great value assortment at $1.25. So we've moved to multi-price products in our frozen food set. It's easier to communicate to our customers and our associates because it's door by door. And our -- and that assortment, as I've shared, the customers are responding greatly.

對於 3 美元和 5 美元的產品，我們看到了客戶的熱烈反響，尤其是在產品的季節性方面。這就是我們認為我們可以繼續完善和發展該業務的地方。然後，您也聽說過我們在 1.25 美元的冷凍食品部分，由於成本壓力，我們甚至很難以 1.25 美元的價格獲得超值的產品組合。因此，我們在冷凍食品系列中轉向多價產品。因為它是挨家挨戶的，所以更容易與我們的客戶和我們的員工溝通。正如我所分享的，我們的——以及那種分類，客戶的反應非常好。

And again, this is our frozen business for the last 18 months was in a decline because of the same pressures we were seeing on the consumables. And now we've completely reversed that where we have introduced the multi-price $3 and $5 items, customers are responding well, and we see strong growth in our sales there. So I think between the 2 of those things, the consumables side and then the frozen side, over time, we will continue to drive traffic doing.

再一次，這是我們過去 18 個月的凍結業務，由於我們在消耗品上看到的壓力相同，業務呈下降趨勢。現在我們已經完全扭轉了我們推出多價 3 美元和 5 美元商品的情況，客戶反應良好，我們看到我們在那裡的銷售額強勁增長。所以我認為在這兩者之間，消耗品方面和冷凍方面，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續推動流量。

And then on the discretionary side, proven by our continued growth and a 8% comp, the customers still see the value in our seasonal party, toys, crafting and that continues to be strong. So I like the trends we're seeing overall.

然後在可自由支配的方面，我們的持續增長和 8% 的補償證明了這一點，客戶仍然看到我們的季節性派對、玩具、手工藝品的價值，而且這種價值仍然很強勁。所以我喜歡我們看到的整體趨勢。

We will take the next question from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist.

我們將從 Truist 的 Scot Ciccarelli 那裡接聽下一個問題。

So can you talk about the consumable versus discretionary mix at both banners? It seems like there's a concerted effort to focus more on consumables. Obviously, that helps with traffic, but is margin dilutive. So I guess the question is, how do you guys expect to manage that balance, #1? And then #2, when would you expect the mix pressures to start to ease? Is there like, I guess, a certain target you're kind of shooting for?

那麼，您能談談兩個橫幅上的消費品與可自由支配的組合嗎？似乎人們齊心協力將重點更多地放在消耗品上。顯然，這有助於提高流量，但會稀釋利潤。所以我想問題是，你們希望如何管理這種平衡，#1？然後#2，你預計混合壓力什麼時候開始緩解？我猜，有沒有你正在瞄準的某個目標？

Yes. And you're right. Right now, we're meeting the needs where the customer is taking us, and we are improving that assortment. And I'll speak to Family Dollar. Larry got and the merchants have done a wonderful job at really improving that assortment and that pricing for that customer where they need us. And it's all in that consumable and DSD-related product. And we've done that not only in our base pricing, but our promotion pricing and then also in the linear footage dedicated to it, our resets in our 2.5.

是的。你是對的。現在，我們正在滿足客戶帶我們去的地方的需求，並且我們正在改進這種分類。我會和 Family Dollar 談談。拉里得到了，商家在真正改善分類和為客戶需要我們的地方定價方面做得非常出色。這一切都在該消耗品和 DSD 相關產品中。我們不僅在我們的基本定價中做到了這一點，而且在我們的促銷定價中做到了這一點，然後在專門用於它的線性鏡頭中，我們在 2.5 中進行了重置。

So you're right. I think our biggest goal to drive improvement on the Family Dollar side is to get more sales per square foot in our boxes. And the first thing is driving it with consumables and being right on that. But the team is also, at the same time, really working on discretionary to be right on seasonal and home to meet their needs, but really, it's the consumables driving that trade over more than our effort and the works that we're doing on the merchandising side.

所以你是對的。我認為我們推動 Family Dollar 方面改進的最大目標是在我們的盒子裡獲得更多每平方英尺的銷售額。首先是用消耗品來驅動它，並做到這一點。但與此同時，團隊也在努力酌情處理季節性和家庭以滿足他們的需求，但實際上，推動這種交易的是消耗品，而不是我們的努力和我們正在做的工作銷售方面。

And then on the Dollar Tree side, just as I've shared, I like what I've seen in the last 2 quarters where one is up 9.5%, the other one is 8%. That's a great balance. And I think, as we continue to provide that value on the consumables side, I think over time, we like when both are 50%-50%, 50%, say, discretionary and 50% consumables. And then as they grow over time, I think like Dollar Tree historically, has always grown low single-digit comps with a combination of traffic and units in the basket. And I think once we settle and cycle through that, providing that effort on the consumables side, we'll get back to that normal cadence that we've seen in the past.

然後在美元樹方面，正如我分享的那樣，我喜歡我在過去兩個季度看到的情況，其中一個上漲了 9.5%，另一個上漲了 8%。這是一個很好的平衡。而且我認為，隨著我們繼續在消耗品方面提供這種價值，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們喜歡兩者都是 50%-50%、50%，比如說，可自由支配和 50% 的消耗品。然後隨著時間的推移，隨著它們的增長，我認為就像 Dollar Tree 歷史上一樣，總是在流量和籃子中的單位組合的情況下增長低單位數。而且我認為一旦我們解決並循環通過它，在消耗品方面提供這種努力，我們就會回到我們過去看到的正常節奏。

So just from an earnings algorithm perspective, I'm not asking specific guidance for next year, is it fair to assume kind of lower gross margin, buy maybe more SG&A leverage on kind of a go-forward basis maybe than what we've seen historically, just given the mix shift?

因此，僅從收益算法的角度來看，我並沒有要求明年的具體指導，假設毛利率較低是否公平，在未來的基礎上購買可能比我們所看到的更多的 SG&A 槓桿從歷史上看，只是考慮到混合轉變？

Yes. This is Jeff. Absolutely, from a standpoint of, given the mix shift and some of the other cost pressures, margin is much more under pressure. But given the increase in revenue, the opportunity to leverage our SG&A is definitely there.

是的。這是傑夫。當然，從考慮到混合轉變和其他一些成本壓力的角度來看，利潤率面臨更大的壓力。但鑑於收入的增加，利用我們的 SG&A 的機會肯定存在。

And I would just say, too, the other thing is, as Family Dollar continues to prove their execution and drive market share in these products in DSD and national brands and then even in our private brands, vendor rebates and allowances will follow that because we're executing better. And Larry's team is really working hard on trying to drive that. So it's really even the mix within the mix as consumables grow, there's levers that we can pull with allowances and rebates and then mix in the private brands as that consumer shifts to that should help with some of the margin pressure, too.

我也想說，另一件事是，隨著 Family Dollar 繼續證明他們的執行力並推動這些產品在 DSD 和民族品牌中的市場份額，甚至在我們的自有品牌中，供應商回扣和津貼也會隨之而來，因為我們'執行得更好。 Larry 的團隊確實在努力推動這一目標。因此，隨著消耗品的增長，它實際上什至是組合中的組合，我們可以通過補貼和回扣來拉動槓桿，然後隨著消費者轉向自有品牌，這也應該有助於緩解一些利潤壓力。

We will take the next question from line of Joe Feldman from Telsey Advisory Group.

我們將從 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Joe Feldman 那裡接聽下一個問題。

I wanted to ask you just to go a little deeper. On the private brands, where do you see the most opportunity? Like what maybe categories and where that you're focused on and where you think you can drive some incremental improvement quickly?

我想請你再深入一點。在自有品牌方面，您認為哪裡的機會最多？比如你關注的類別和重點以及你認為你可以快速推動一些漸進式改進的地方？

I believe across the board. And Larry's team, we have staffed up. We've brought in additional experts in this area on the private brand for Family Dollar. On the OTC and health, over-the-counter drug and health is where we're going to be focused and leaning in first. And of course, on the paper side of it, we think there's opportunity and then just on the everyday food side. So those would be the 3 big areas.

我相信全線。拉里的團隊，我們已經配備了人員。我們在 Family Dollar 的自有品牌上引入了該領域的更多專家。在非處方藥和健康方面，非處方藥和健康是我們首先要關注和傾斜的地方。當然，在紙面上，我們認為有機會，然後就在日常食品方面。所以這些將是 3 個大領域。

And I think Larry's team, we're organizing around it. We're looking at the brands and driving penetration by category comparing to the rest of the market. And we've partnered with a third-party broker to really help accelerate that. So those would be the 3 big areas, and it's a huge focus for Larry and his team.

我認為 Larry 的團隊正在圍繞它進行組織。與其他市場相比，我們正在研究品牌並按類別推動滲透率。我們已經與第三方經紀人合作，真正幫助加速這一進程。所以這些將是 3 個大領域，這是拉里和他的團隊的一個巨大關注點。

That's great. And if I could follow up with maybe a bigger picture question. I think as Rick had said in his prepared remarks that you view the company as kind of 2 really strong growth companies under one roof and -- which I guess is not too different from the past, but it does imply that there's 2 different go-to-market strategies, which we know and ways of doing business.

那太棒了。如果我可以跟進一個更大的圖片問題。我認為正如里克在他準備好的發言中所說的那樣，你將公司視為同一屋簷下的 2 家真正強大的成長型公司，而且——我想這與過去並沒有太大不同，但這確實意味著有 2 種不同的走向——我們知道的上市策略和開展業務的方式。

So I'm wondering how do you guys leverage the scale of the overall company and the operations? And like has anything changed with that strategy to have these combined fulfillment centers and purchasing power being stronger? Maybe you can just give a little more color on that?

所以我想知道你們如何利用整個公司的規模和運營？就像該戰略有什麼變化，使這些聯合的履行中心和購買力變得更強大？也許你可以給它多一點顏色？

I'll lead with that if that's okay. Hey, what I would say is the things that -- how we go to market, how we face the customer between the 2 banners are totally different. One is basic consumable retailing, the Family Dollar side. One is consistent everyday low price, one price point. The leverage, the beauty of the combination is all of the backside things that the consumer doesn't experience, the accounting, the HR, the legal. And that's where all those synergies exist even on the supply chain, how we deliver to the stores, how we look at this [model]. So all of those synergies are still there.

如果可以的話，我會帶頭。嘿，我要說的是——我們如何進入市場，我們如何面對兩個橫幅之間的客戶是完全不同的。一個是基本的消費品零售，即 Family Dollar 方面。一種是天天一致的低價，一個價位。槓桿作用，組合的美妙之處在於消費者沒有經歷過的所有背後的事情，會計，人力資源，法律。這就是所有這些協同作用存在的地方，甚至在供應鏈上，我們如何向商店發貨，我們如何看待這個[模型]。所以所有這些協同作用仍然存在。

But what we're doing a much different -- what I would think not only different but better job is with how we're facing the consumer realizing that, one is more emotional driven and then again, one is more concerned with everyday excitement value. Michael, I'll turn it over to you on that.

但是我們正在做的事情卻大不相同——我認為不僅不同而且更好的工作是我們如何面對消費者，他們意識到，一個人更受情感驅動，然後再一次，一個人更關心日常的興奮價值.邁克爾，我會把它交給你。

No. I think you stated it right. Well, the customer-facing side is where we're leveraging, but on the back side, we'll be leveraging all the opportunities we can as one organization.

不，我認為你說得對。好吧，面向客戶的一面是我們正在利用的地方，但在背面，我們將利用我們作為一個組織所能利用的所有機會。

We will take the next question from line of John Heinbockel from Guggenheim.

我們將從古根海姆的 John Heinbockel 那裡接聽下一個問題。

A couple of questions on Family Dollar merchandising. So one, given the size of the box, how do you think about product breadth versus depth, that fundamental tension? And do you need to accelerate cooler capacity as part of the process? And then lastly, I know you're working on supply chain, right, to try to improve out of stocks. How quickly do you think that begins to impact the business, right? Is that kind of 6 months out, a year out, maybe not that long, [your thoughts] would be great.

關於 Family Dollar 商品銷售的幾個問題。那麼，一個，考慮到盒子的大小，你如何看待產品的廣度與深度，即基本的張力？作為流程的一部分，您是否需要加快冷卻器容量？最後，我知道你正在研究供應鏈，對，試圖改善缺貨情況。您認為這會多快開始影響業務，對嗎？那種 6 個月，一年，也許不會那麼長，[你的想法] 會很棒。

Yes. So I'll start with the breadth and depth of Family Dollar. Again, Larry and his team is going category by category, and he's already made changes in our new H2.5, but that will be a continuous improvement throughout this next year, as him and his team apply that discipline and strategy to each category, we will be bringing in more SKUs where it makes sense to help meet the needs of the customer and comparing it to the rest of the market. And where we've done that in the categories that he's done so far, we're seeing great results in it. And I think that's why we're excited about our 2.5.

是的。所以我將從 Family Dollar 的廣度和深度開始。同樣，Larry 和他的團隊正在逐個類別進行分類，他已經對我們的新 H2.5 進行了更改，但這將是明年的持續改進，因為他和他的團隊將這種紀律和策略應用於每個類別，我們將引入更多有助於滿足客戶需求並將其與市場其他產品進行比較的 SKU。在他迄今為止所做的類別中，我們已經做到了這一點，我們看到了很好的結果。我認為這就是我們對 2.5 感到興奮的原因。

We're also using our linear space more. We're putting in more shelves inside the box and then we can go vertically higher in the gondolas, the [rows] of shelving that we have right now. And again, that allows us to bring in more assortment into the store and getting more sales per square foot.

我們也更多地使用我們的線性空間。我們在盒子裡放了更多的架子，然後我們可以在吊船中垂直升高，我們現在擁有的[排]架子。再一次，這使我們能夠將更多種類帶入商店並獲得更多每平方英尺的銷售額。

The cooler is absolutely an improvement. And every time we remodel a store, we want to bring in more coolers, both cool beverage and frozen beverage because that's where the customer is moving to. And it's a convenience item and it's meeting their needs. So there is room for continued expansion there. And Larry's and his team has even really look at a reset for the whole frozen food set, and where we've rolled that out going into this back half of the year. So that's going to be a continuous improvement side.

冷卻器絕對是一個改進。每次我們改造一家商店時，我們都想引進更多的冷飲，包括冷飲和冷凍飲料，因為那是顧客要去的地方。它是一種方便的物品，可以滿足他們的需求。所以那裡還有繼續擴張的空間。 Larry's 和他的團隊甚至真正考慮了整個冷凍食品系列的重置，以及我們在今年下半年推出的地方。所以這將是一個持續改進的方面。

And on the supply chain, I would say we're constantly looking at the enabling our supply chain, as Rick said, to try and drive efficiencies and making it easier for our stores. And we're seeing improvements right now on things that we're doing in our supply chain. So I think it's -- you'll see it now throughout the next 2 to 3 years on how do we continue to refine our supply chain as a key enabler to drive the efficiencies and make it easier for our stores to get the product in the stores more efficiently.

在供應鏈上，我想說的是，正如 Rick 所說，我們一直在關注如何使我們的供應鏈成為可能，以嘗試提高效率並使我們的商店更容易。我們現在看到我們在供應鏈中所做的事情有所改善。所以我認為 - 在接下來的 2 到 3 年內，你會看到我們如何繼續完善我們的供應鏈，作為提高效率並使我們的商店更容易獲得產品的關鍵推動因素存儲效率更高。

We will take the next question from the line of Ed Kelly from Wells Fargo.

我們將從 Wells Fargo 的 Ed Kelly 那裡接聽下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about the Dollar Tree gross margin. You've hinted in the past that this potentially could be higher than 36% over time. I think if I try to sort of like look at where you're run rating now based upon the commentary around a little bit of incremental pressure in Q4, maybe you're run rating sort of high 35% range. Just thoughts around that.

我想問一下 Dollar Tree 的毛利率。您過去曾暗示，隨著時間的推移，這一比例可能會高於 36%。我想，如果我試著根據對第四季度一點點增量壓力的評論，看看你現在的評級在哪裡，也許你的評級在 35% 的範圍內。只是圍繞著這個想法。

And then as we think about next year, you do get a big freight benefit likely. How do you think about investing that versus letting that flow through? And I asked that question because the consensus is probably in the high 37% range for next year. And this sort of all boils down to what do you think the right margin is for this business to provide value to customers while also delivering for shareholders?

然後當我們考慮明年時，您確實可能會獲得很大的運費收益。你如何看待投資與讓它流動？我問這個問題是因為明年的共識可能在 37% 的高位範圍內。而這一切都歸結為您認為該業務為客戶提供價值同時為股東提供價值的正確利潤率是多少？

Yes. Thank you for the question. If you think about our margins right now and as we think about it move forward, it's really driven by what the customer is really leading into and buying. So right now, we're seeing a little more rotation into our consumables versus our discretionary, but yet you're seeing good growth on both sides. We like the balance of that.

是的。感謝你的提問。如果你現在考慮我們的利潤率，而當我們考慮它向前發展時，它實際上是由客戶真正引導和購買的東西驅動的。所以現在，我們看到我們的消費品與非必需品相比有更多的輪換，但你看到雙方都有良好的增長。我們喜歡這種平衡。

We're doing a number of things to continue to provide value to the customer and maintain that margin rate as best we can, recognizing right now that we're still under some level of product cost pressures as well as from a freight component, but still being able to deliver, as you said, high mid-30s types of margin rates.

我們正在做很多事情來繼續為客戶提供價值並儘我們所能保持利潤率，我們現在認識到我們仍然承受著一定程度的產品成本壓力以及來自運費的壓力，但是正如你所說，仍然能夠提供 30 年代中期的高保證金率。

As we move forward, we will continue to look to deliver value to the customer across both of those broad categories of discretionary and consumables. We believe that a number of things that we're doing with a multi-price point will allow us to lean into the discretionary even more and hopefully continue to balance out that end of the business also. So it's really a combination of the two. And it depends on how the customer is in their behaviors and their needs, and we are able to provide them across that broad continuum.

隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續尋求在非必需品和消耗品這兩個廣泛類別中為客戶提供價值。我們相信，我們正在以多價位做的許多事情將使我們能夠更加依賴自由裁量權，並希望繼續平衡業務的這一端。所以它真的是兩者的結合。這取決於客戶的行為和需求，我們能夠在廣泛的連續體中提供它們。

We will take the next question from the line of Michael Lasser from UBS.

我們將從瑞銀的 Michael Lasser 那裡接聽下一個問題。

Jeff, just within your last answer, you mentioned mid-30% gross margin moving forward for the Dollar Tree banner. The Dollar Tree banner has $0.5 billion of costs that were negatively impacted from all the significant amount of freight and transportation over the last few years, especially container costs. Container costs are now back to where they were in 2019 levels.

傑夫，就在你的最後一個回答中，你提到 Dollar Tree 橫幅的毛利率將達到 30% 左右。 Dollar Tree 橫幅有 5 億美元的成本，這些成本受到過去幾年所有大量貨運和運輸的負面影響，尤其是集裝箱成本。集裝箱成本現在回到了 2019 年的水平。

So understanding that there could be some mix pressure as the consumer focuses on consumables, why would you not get a more significant benefit to Dollar Tree's gross margin from the significant decline in freight cost moving into next year? Should we interpret that to mean that you have to make more sizable investments in Dollar Tree in order to maintain the sales productivity of that banner, especially now that you see how those stores that were early to raise prices last year are performing once they lap that?

因此，當消費者關註消耗品時，可能會出現一些混合壓力，為什麼你不能從明年運費的顯著下降中獲得 Dollar Tree 毛利率的更顯著收益呢？我們是否應該將其解釋為您必須對 Dollar Tree 進行更大規模的投資，以保持該橫幅的銷售效率，尤其是現在您看到那些去年提早提價的商店一旦達到該標准後的表現如何？

Yes. As I look at this, there is definitely the opportunity as freight rates start to turn back around. That -- we are on contract. Most of our business we do is on contracted carriers versus spot rates. So there's going to be a little bit of a lag in that timeframe. And at this point, we're not giving any guidance for 2023 as of yet. But to the extent that we continue to see the freight rates and the other transpacific rates coming down and staying down, that will be reflected in our longer-term contract rates.

是的。在我看來，隨著運費開始回升，肯定有機會。那 - 我們有合同。我們所做的大部分業務都是基於簽約承運人與即期匯率。所以在那個時間範圍內會有一點滯後。目前，我們還沒有為 2023 年提供任何指導。但就我們繼續看到運費和其他跨太平洋運費下降並保持下降的程度而言，這將反映在我們的長期合同費率中。

We will then have the opportunity to balance that with giving back to the customer as well as the shareholder. But having said that -- that's only one component. The other component is underlying product cost. And right now, there is as much pressure and many times in the product cost, underlying vendor product costs as there is in freight. So we have to balance the 2. And definitely keep an eye on, in my mind, is how we create value for the overall organization is balancing that in being priced right in the marketplace for our customer as well as providing a higher return to our shareholders.

然後，我們將有機會在回饋客戶和股東之間取得平衡。但話雖如此——這只是一個組成部分。另一個組成部分是基礎產品成本。而現在，產品成本、潛在供應商產品成本的壓力與運費一樣多，而且是其倍數。所以我們必須平衡兩者。在我看來，絕對要關注的是，我們如何為整個組織創造價值，在為我們的客戶在市場上正確定價以及為我們的客戶提供更高的回報方面取得平衡股東。

And if I could just follow up on that, Jeff. As of November 2022, you have 312 stores that are now anniversarying the rollout of the $1.25 price point from last year. Are those stores comping positively in the range with the rest of the Dollar Tree banner performance?

如果我可以跟進，傑夫。截至 2022 年 11 月，您有 312 家商店正在慶祝從去年開始推出 1.25 美元的價格點。這些商店是否與 Dollar Tree 橫幅廣告的其餘部分錶現一致？

Yes. So we're in the new quarter here, we're not going to give you intra-quarter guidance. And it's really early for us to tell. So I think that when we release our fourth quarter results, we'll be able to tell you a little bit more about that.

是的。所以我們在這裡的新季度，我們不會給你季度內指導。現在下結論還為時過早。所以我認為當我們發布第四季度業績時，我們將能夠告訴你更多關於這一點的信息。

We will take the next question from the line of Michael Montani from Evercore.

我們將從 Evercore 的 Michael Montani 那裡接聽下一個問題。

Yes. Just wanted to ask, first off, if I could, on the SG&A side. If there's level of comp that you feel you need for natural leverage into the fourth quarter and into 2023 in order to lever some of the expenses there? And then a follow-up.

是的。只是想先問一下，如果可以的話，在 SG&A 方面。如果你覺得你需要在第四季度和 2023 年利用自然槓桿來槓桿化那裡的一些費用？然後是跟進。

Yes. Michael, it's a good question. It's one in which -- what would be a natural level to leverage in normal circumstances versus what we are doing, as we had mentioned earlier, a good focus, continued focus and commitment around elevating our store standards investing in not only store standards, but our wage rates for our stores. We're -- and the combination of the two, we have been making some material investments. But if you look over a period of time, we've been able to leverage our SG&A, if you will, on about a 2% to 3% comp.

是的。邁克爾，這是個好問題。這是一個 - 在正常情況下與我們正在做的事情相比，正常情況下的自然水平是什麼，正如我們之前提到的那樣，良好的關注，持續的關注和承諾圍繞提高我們的商店標準投資，不僅投資於商店標準，而且我們商店的工資率。我們 - 以及兩者的結合，我們一直在進行一些物質投資。但如果你看一段時間，我們已經能夠利用我們的 SG&A，如果你願意的話，大約 2% 到 3% 的補償。

Okay. And then if I could just follow up on CapEx. The past few years, it was trending around $8 a foot. In this year, it looks like it could be north of $9. So given some of the inflationary components there and the investments you all are making, is that kind of the right baseline that $9 plus to build off of? Or should we think of this as maybe some more catch-up that could subside?

好的。然後，如果我可以跟進資本支出。在過去的幾年裡，它的趨勢是每英尺 8 美元左右。今年，它看起來可能超過 9 美元。因此，考慮到那裡的一些通貨膨脹因素以及你們所有人正在進行的投資，9 美元以上的基礎是否是正確的基線？或者我們是否應該將此視為可能平息的更多追趕？

Yes. Once again, I don't want to give any guidance beyond 2022 other than what we've provided. The investments that we're making this year and technology and supply chain on top of our normal base is what's really driving the increase. And we believe it's the right thing to do as we set up for the right capabilities for us to accelerate our growth going forward.

是的。再次強調，除了我們已經提供的內容，我不想在 2022 年之後提供任何指導。我們今年進行的投資以及在我們正常基礎之上的技術和供應鏈才是真正推動增長的因素。我們相信這是正確的做法，因為我們建立了正確的能力來加速我們未來的增長。

We will take the next question from line of Chuck Grom from Gordon Haskett.

我們將從 Gordon Haskett 的 Chuck Grom 系列中回答下一個問題。

Jeff, on the implied fourth quarter guide, can you help us think about the segments where you see more margin compression relative to the third quarter? It looks like you're anticipating operating margins to be down about 30 basis points or so. They were up about 70 basis points in the third quarter on a similar comp. So just wondering if you hold our hands on the segment for 4Q a little bit?

傑夫，在隱含的第四季度指南中，你能幫助我們考慮一下與第三季度相比你看到更多利潤壓縮的部分嗎？看起來您預計營業利潤率將下降約 30 個基點左右。在類似的情況下，他們在第三季度上漲了約 70 個基點。所以只是想知道你是否在第四季度掌握了我們的部分？

Yes. We historically have not given guidance necessarily on a banner basis. We look at it in total, the pressure that we're seeing is, once again, the continued rotation in the consumables and how the customer is responding there as well as we know that we are continuing to see other inflationary cost pressures across the P&L. But all of this is more -- was anticipated back when we gave our earlier guidance, it's really the product mix shift that is the predominant sort of driver of our -- sort of direction around the lower half of the range.

是的。從歷史上看，我們不一定在橫幅的基礎上提供指導。我們總體來看，我們看到的壓力再次是消耗品的持續輪換以及客戶在那裡的反應以及我們知道我們將繼續看到整個損益表中的其他通脹成本壓力.但所有這些都是更多的 - 當我們給出我們之前的指導時就已經預料到了，這實際上是產品組合轉變是我們的主要驅動力 - 圍繞範圍的下半部分的方向。

And the continued pressure on cost.

以及持續的成本壓力。

Okay. Great. And a follow-up question for Rick and Mike. Obviously, the price investments a few months ago were smart. I'm curious when you think out over the next couple of years and the next big levers you can pull to improve productivity, I guess, what should we be thinking about? Mike you touched on it a little bit in terms of raising the gondola heights adding coolers. But I guess, maybe a little bit of looking inside the playbook on what to expect?

好的。偉大的。以及 Rick 和 Mike 的後續問題。顯然，幾個月前的價格投資是明智的。我很好奇，當您考慮未來幾年以及可以用來提高生產力的下一個重要槓桿時，我想，我們應該考慮什麼？邁克，你在提高吊艙高度和增加冷卻器方面略有提及。但我想，也許需要深入了解一下劇本，看看會發生什麼？

Yes, I would say that...

是的，我會說...

Go ahead, Mike. I'm sorry.

來吧，邁克。對不起。

Yes, I would say...

是的，我會說...

Go ahead, brother, I'm sorry. Bye-bye. Go.

繼續吧，兄弟，對不起。再見。去。

Rick opened up, let's to clean it up, fill it up and straighten it up. I think getting the product filled in our stores and better store conditions and more consistently for our customer is one thing. I think that private brands is another big leverage. And I think the work that Larry and the team are going to do yet that we're really at the beginning of that doing a better job on the category by category assortment that our merchants need and being priced right. I think those are the big levers inside our store to really keep driving the overall sales per square foot of our buildings.

里克打開了，讓我們把它清理乾淨，填滿它，把它弄直。我認為讓我們的商店裝滿產品和更好的商店條件以及更一致地為我們的客戶提供服務是一回事。我認為自有品牌是另一個重要的槓桿。而且我認為 Larry 和他的團隊要做的工作，我們真的才剛剛開始，在我們的商家需要的類別分類分類上做得更好，並且定價正確。我認為這些是我們店內的重要槓桿，可以真正推動我們建築物每平方英尺的整體銷售額。

Yes. And the only thing I would add to that is we are -- especially on the Family Dollar side, we are under skewed and we are under skewed based on how we ship product to the stores. We tend to ship only in case packs versus eaches for the higher margin, slow-turn merchandise. If you look at our cooler commitment, we are under cooled for lack of a better phrase in our Family Dollar stores and probably our Dollar Tree stores. So there is lots of upside by managing the SKU base.

是的。我唯一要補充的是我們 - 特別是在 Family Dollar 方面，我們存在偏差，並且根據我們將產品運送到商店的方式，我們存在偏差。對於利潤較高、周轉緩慢的商品，我們傾向於只裝箱裝運，而不是單獨裝運。如果你看一下我們更酷的承諾，我們會因為在我們的 Family Dollar 商店和可能是我們的 Dollar Tree 商店中缺乏更好的用語而感到沮喪。因此，管理 SKU 基礎有很多好處。

We will take the next question from the line of Kelly Bania from BMO Capital.

我們將從 BMO Capital 的 Kelly Bania 那裡接聽下一個問題。

I was wondering if you could just help us give us a little more specific magnitude of the product cost inflation you're seeing on the consumables versus the discretionary side of both businesses? And just with -- as you work with suppliers, are you seeing any light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the product cost inflation front?

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們更具體地說明你在消耗品和兩家企業的可自由支配方面看到的產品成本通脹的幅度？只是 - 當您與供應商合作時，您是否在產品成本通脹方面看到了隧道盡頭的任何曙光？

Yes, Kelly, maybe the best way to describe the support dimension to it is, if you take a look at our inventory, and you take a look at our inventory on a year-over-year basis. And in my prepared remarks, I had mentioned that part of the inventory increase was as a result of last year, the covers being fairly there last year as a result of customer pull forward in the holiday and then us chasing goods. But even if you step back from that, about 40% to 45% of our increase in inventory on a year-over-year basis is as a result of product -- vendor product cost increases. There's another roughly 20% that is as a result of higher freight costs associated with those inventories.

是的，凱利，也許描述支持維度的最好方式是，如果你看一下我們的庫存，你看看我們的庫存同比。在我準備好的發言稿中，我已經提到部分庫存增加是由於去年，由於客戶在假期提前拉貨，然後我們追貨，所以去年的封面相當多。但即使你退後一步，我們庫存同比增長的大約 40% 到 45% 是由於產品——供應商產品成本增加。還有大約 20% 是由於與這些庫存相關的較高運費。

So just those 2 components represented about roughly 60%, 65% of the increase in the cost of our inventory. And that's what is now embedded in our inventory and then, of course, we'll be rolling through with respect to margins on a go-forward basis, in which we have been dealing with over the course of the year.

因此，僅這 2 個組成部分就占我們庫存成本增加的大約 60%、65%。這就是現在嵌入我們庫存中的內容，然後，當然，我們將在前進的基礎上逐步實現利潤率，我們在過去一年中一直在處理這一問題。

Yes. As it relates to -- our merchant teams continue to be, I think, very resourceful and looking at different suppliers, negotiations, working with them around allowances, working with them across other ways to get support on the business. And then, of course, one of the things that is really important to us, and Mike had mentioned is we're leaning into is private brands and the opportunity to blend that more into our offering. Our customers are looking for that opportunity, and it gives us more margin protection.

是的。因為它涉及 - 我認為，我們的商人團隊仍然非常足智多謀，並尋找不同的供應商，談判，與他們圍繞津貼進行合作，通過其他方式與他們合作以獲得業務支持。然後，當然，對我們來說真正重要的一件事，邁克提到過，我們正在依賴自有品牌，並有機會將其更多地融入我們的產品中。我們的客戶正在尋找這樣的機會，它為我們提供了更多的利潤保護。

We will take the next question from line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

我們將從摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman 那裡接聽下一個問題。

It's Simeon Gutman. Following up on this freight question, I wanted to ask maybe a different way. So is part of it that the timing of contracts means that we don't see a lot of the savings in '23? Or are you just reserving the right to figure out how to plan the business? There will be savings, but you're not sure of how to reinvest or use the savings yet.

我是西蒙·古特曼。跟進這個運費問題，我想問一個不同的方式。那麼合同的時間安排是否意味著我們在 23 年看不到很多節省？還是您只是保留弄清楚如何規劃業務的權利？會有儲蓄，但您還不確定如何再投資或使用儲蓄。

Yes, I think you're spot on. As it relates to the freight those contracts and the way that we would recognize it is more of a forward look. So it would be into a 2023 year. And then as that freight -- as we negotiate this new freight costs or see those freight costs coming down, it would run through our inventory turns.

是的，我認為你是正確的。由於它與運費相關，這些合同以及我們認可它的方式更具前瞻性。所以它將進入 2023 年。然後作為運費——當我們協商這個新的運費或看到這些運費下降時，它將貫穿我們的庫存周轉。

Okay. So I guess it's a '23 into '24 phenomenon where the real savings builds up, is that the right way to interpret that answer?

好的。所以我猜這是真正儲蓄增加的 23 到 24 現象，這是解釋該答案的正確方法嗎？

We should see in the back half of the '23, we should start to see. It's about a quarter drag. We turn our inventories 4x a year. So it's usually about a quarter drag once we start appreciating the lower rates, then we can see that in our product as it's coming through.

我們應該在 23 年的後半段看到，我們應該開始看到。這大約是四分之一的阻力。我們每年將庫存翻 4 倍。因此，一旦我們開始欣賞較低的利率，通常會有四分之一的拖累，然後我們可以在我們的產品中看到這一點。

Okay. And then just my quick follow-up. On the traffic on Dollar Tree, can you talk about -- I'm sure this has been asked, but why like multiyear, I think it got a little better this quarter, but structurally, it's been down for the past several years. Can you talk about that? And then why shouldn't the right algo be you get price, but traffic is either flat or it could decline because it's hard to understand why the traffic has structurally been weaker over the last several years?

好的。然後就是我的快速跟進。關於 Dollar Tree 的流量，你能談談——我確定有人問過這個問題，但為什麼像多年一樣，我認為本季度有所好轉，但從結構上講，過去幾年一直在下降。你能談談嗎？那麼為什麼正確的算法不應該是你得到價格，但流量要么持平，要么可能會下降，因為很難理解為什麼過去幾年流量在結構上變弱了？

Yes, I would just say this. I think it's a lot due to our assortment that we provided for our customer, and the majority of that was on the consumable side. And then just during the pandemic, our customer, it was -- we weren't high consumable-driven and high discretionary where they were -- when they had money in their pocket, trips were consolidated in '20 and '21, and they were buying high-ticket items to decorate their homes, decorate outside and replacing a lot of things inside their house. That's not what Dollar Tree is at our single fixed price point.

是的，我只想說這個。我認為這很大程度上歸功於我們為客戶提供的產品種類，其中大部分是消耗品。然後就在大流行期間，我們的客戶——我們不是高消費驅動和高度自由裁量權的地方——當他們口袋裡有錢時，旅行在 20 世紀和 21 世紀被整合，他們正在購買高價物品來裝飾他們的家，裝飾外面並更換他們房子裡的很多東西。這不是 Dollar Tree 在我們單一固定價格點上的表現。

So '20 and '21 were okay for us. But when we saw the consumable side of the business, that assortment go away, that was impacting our traffic. That's why I'm really excited about going forward. The last 2 quarters now, we're seeing that consumable sales come back 9.4% comp in the third quarter and we see that continuing, especially on the consumable. And then on the frozen side of the business, we do see that traffic starting to settle back into what Dollar Tree has been known for, that low single-digit traffic increases with ticket increase to have a nice go-forward balance between the two and continuing to balance our mix between consumables and discretionary. I think that's ahead of us and that's what the work that the team has been doing. In the last 2 quarters, we're seeing evidence of it.

所以 20 年和 21 年對我們來說還可以。但是當我們看到業務的消費品方面時，那種分類消失了，這影響了我們的流量。這就是為什麼我對前進感到非常興奮。現在過去兩個季度，我們看到第三季度消耗品銷售額回升 9.4%，而且我們看到這種情況仍在繼續，尤其是在消耗品方面。然後在業務的凍結方面，我們確實看到流量開始恢復到 Dollar Tree 所熟知的狀態，低個位數的流量隨著票價的增加而增加，從而在兩者之間取得良好的前瞻性平衡繼續平衡我們在消耗品和非必需品之間的組合。我認為這在我們之前，這就是團隊一直在做的工作。在過去的兩個季度中，我們看到了它的證據。

There are no further questions, so I will hand it back over to your host to conclude today's conference. Thank you.

沒有其他問題了，所以我將把它交還給你的東道主，結束今天的會議。謝謝你。

Thank you, Caroline, and thank you for joining us for today's call. Our next quarterly earnings conference call to discuss both Q4 and fiscal year-end results is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, March 1, 2023. Thank you, and have a good day.

謝謝卡羅琳，也感謝你加入我們今天的電話會議。我們下一次討論第四季度和財年末業績的季度收益電話會議暫定於 2023 年 3 月 1 日星期三舉行。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

With that, that does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

這樣，今天的電話會議就結束了。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。