DHT Holdings Inc (DHT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining DHT Holdings' fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by DHT's President and CEO, Svein Moxnes Harfjeld. As usual, we will go through financials and some highlights before we open up for your questions. The link to the slide deck can be found on our website dhtankers.com.

Before we get started with today's call, I would like to make the following remarks. A replay of this conference call will be available on our website dhtankers.com until February 14. In addition, our earnings press release will be available on our website and on the SSE-EDGAR system as an exhibit to our Form 6-K.

As a reminder, on this conference call we will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations about future events as detailed in our financial report. Actual results may differ materially from the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements. We urge you to read our periodic report available on our website and on the SSE-EDGAR system, including the risk factors in these reports, for more information regarding risks that we face.

We maintain a very strong balance sheet, represented by low leverage and significant liquidity. At year-end, financial leverage was below 20% based on market values for the ships, and net debt was below $15 million per vessel. The fourth quarter ended with total liquidity of $268 million, consisting of $75 million in cash and $193 million available under our revolving credit facilities.

Now over to the P&L highlights for the quarter. We achieved revenues on TCE basis of $94.5 million and EBITDA of $73 million. Net income came in at $35.3 million, equal to $0.22 per share. We continued to show good cost control and operating expenses for the quarter were $18.7 million and G&A was $4 million.

The vessels in the spot market earned $43,600 per day, and the vessels on time charters made $39,600 per day, and this includes profit sharing for two of the five vessels on time charters. The average TCE achieved for the quarter was $42,800 per day.

2023 was the second-best year in the company's history with net income of $161.4 million, equal to $0.99 per share. We achieved revenues on TCE basis of $390 million and EBITDA of $302 million. Average TCE for 2023 was $47.5 million -- sorry, $47,500 per day, where the vessels in the spot market earned $51,200 per day, and the vessels on time charters made $36,400 per day.

On this slide we present the cash flow highlights. We started the fourth quarter with $74 million in cash, and we generated $73 million in EBITDA. Ordinary debt repayment and cash interest amounted to $16 million, and $30.6 million was allocated to shareholders through the cash dividends pertaining to the third quarter of 2023, while $2.2 million was used for maintenance CapEx. We prepaid all installments for 2024 under the Nordea credit facility, amounting to $23.7 million, and we drew down $24 million on RCS, which was subsequently repaid in January '24. $23 million was related to changes in working capital, and the quarter ended with $74.7 million in cash.

Switching to capital allocation. In line with our dividend policy, we will pay $0.22 per share as a quarterly cash dividend, which is equal to 100% of ordinary net income. The dividend will be payable on February 28 to shareholders of record as of February 21. This marks the 56th consecutive quarterly cash dividend, and the shares will trade ex-dividend from February 20.

Total cash dividends for the full year equals $0.99 per share, and below is an illustration of the quarterly cash dividends we have returned to shareholders since we updated the dividend policy in the second half of 2022. This amounts to a total of $1.41 per share.

We have shown robust spot earnings during 2023, with quarterly average rates ranging from $43,600 up to $64,800 per day. Average spot earnings from Q4 '22 through Q4 '23 was $53,700 per day, which compares well with the average TD3c index for the same period of $40,100 per day, or the 25-year average spot rate reported by Clarkson's of $41,400 per day. Outlook for DHT spot rate for Q1'24 shows $55,900 per day booked to date.

On the left side of this slide, we present an update on estimated P&L and cash breakeven rates for 2024. P&L breakeven is estimated to $27,400 per day for the fleet, while cash breakeven is estimated to $18,500 per day, resulting in $8,900 per day per ship in discretionary cash flow after dividends. So, assuming the vessels earn P&L breakeven, this means about $76 million in discretionary cash flow for the year.

On the right side of the slide, we illustrate estimated earnings per share for 2024 based on different rate scenarios. Assuming $50,000 per day, earnings per share will be $1.04, while $75,000 per day estimates $1.85, and a spot rate of $100,000 per day estimates $2.65 in earnings per share.

We will now go through the first-quarter outlook. We expect 455 days to be covered by our time charter contracts at an average rate of $36,600 per day. This includes reported profit sharing for January and February for two of the five vessels on time charters, while March only assumes base rate.

Further, we expect to have a total of 1,630 spot days for the quarter, of which 1,270 days, equal to 78%, have been booked at an average rate of $55,900 per day. As of today, this suggests combined bookings of 83% of the total days at an average rate of $50,800 per day. You can compare these spot booking numbers with the estimated spot P&L breakeven rate of $25,900 per day for the first quarter, allowing you to model a net income contribution based on your own assumptions for the unfixed spot days.

With that, I will turn the call over to Svein.

Thank you, Laila. In this slide, we are to discuss the fleet development and its demographics. On the graph to the left, we illustrate with blue line the average historical age of the VLCC fleet since 1996. As you will see, the average age in the 90s were about 13 years. As the double hull concept evolved in response to the planned phase-out of single-hull tankers, the fleet age reduced to about 8 at the beginning of the 2000s. It further reduced to some 7 years following the extensive deliveries between 2007 and 2012.

Fleet renewal stagnated, however, despite the meaningful number of ships being delivered once the eco-designs came to the market in 2015. Today, the average age of the VLCC fleet is 11.5 years. In stark contrast to this development, general fleet renewal has abated, resulting in the current order book standing at 2.5%.

Looking at the graph to the right, we illustrate the anticipated fleet over the next three years. We assume no scrapping, as this has been non-existent in the recent past. If you look to end 2026, the fleet that will be older than 20 years will reach 200 ships, a big number. However, looking at how many ships will be older than 15 years of age by the end of 2026, the number is huge. We will, in this scenario, reach 445 vessels, equal to almost 50% of the fleet.

On this slide, we continue the same theme, and apologies if this comes across as repetitive. The graph to the left points out how ordering on new VLCCs more or less came to a halt in the first half of 2021. Three years later, we have seen some activity pick up, but the order book is, as we said, still only 2.5%.

The graph to the right shows the number of ships scheduled for delivery over the coming five years against ships turning 20 or 25 years. For all practical purposes, 2026 delivery is now sold out. Shipyards are offering 2027 deliveries, however, in strong competition with other ship types such as LNGs, LPGs, ammonia carriers, container carriers, and large boat carriers.

Even a significant effort to contract new ships will struggle to put a dent in this highly constructive supply picture. The CII regime will likely result in part of the fleet having to slow down to stay in business, thereby reducing capacity further.

There are likely numerous reasons why the order book has ended up where it is. We suggest uncertainty related to future fuels to be one. Further, many ship owners have alternative investment opportunities, and not only in other sectors in shipping. We see many private companies with meaningful capital being allocated to family offices, private equity, and real estate.

This slide presents research from well-regarded Rystad Energy. It depicts the prospective uptake of either ammonia or methanol as fuel in different shipping sectors. These two fuels are likely not the only alternatives we will see in the future, but they seem to be the most talked about.

Following a deep dive into this interesting issue, they have mapped out construction of potential future production facilities, the expected cost of these fuels, how and where these fuels can be delivered to the market, and lastly, are there any other industries or sectors than our own that have a willingness or ability to pay a higher price? Additional aspects include consideration of energy density and how that can be solved, here under bunker capacity on board ships, and whether that will result in redesigns that make ships larger or having to reduce carrying capacity. All a very complex picture.

These two graphs look out to 2040 and suggest tankers, hereby illustrated by the green lines, will have a slow uptake or changeover. We might see uptake in LNG as a transitionary fuel and biofuels being blended into conventional products, but current propulsion systems look set to have many more years in business.

This slide is a familiar picture. Energy Aspects, another highly respected firm, has laid out the dislocation between where future crude oil supply will come from and where it will be consumed. No surprises here, but nevertheless interesting as the analysis has a detailed bottom-up approach.

The key takeaway is, as we have stated many times over, the Atlantic is long crude oil and the [monogrowth] is in Asia. This will be carried on ships, and the majority most likely on the industry workhorse, deals with these, currently carrying almost 50% of all seaborne crude oil.

Within all the geopolitical noise, we should not forget to consider the fundamentals supporting our business. Continued growth in oil demand, longer transportation distances, and hardly any new shipping capacity coming to market against a rapidly aging fleet. We are staying focused on what is within our control, concentrating on disciplined execution of our strategy and maintaining what we have been told is a highly regarded level of corporate governance. We believe our company is well structured for cyclical and volatile markets, with a solid balance sheet and a strong liquidity as its foundation.

As always, we keep our eyes on maintaining robust cash break-even levels, while still having meaningful market exposure and operating leverage, being as profitable as we can. All the above with a defined and shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy of paying out 100% of ordinary net income as quarterly cash dividends.

And with that, Operator, over to you.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Frode Mørkedal, Clarkson Securities.

Thank you. Hi, Clarence and Laila.

Hello, Frode.

Very interesting slides you had there on the supply and demand picture. So, how do you see investments, given that backdrop? You mentioned a growing interest in the new build, but still, low numbers, and the fleet is rapidly aging, right? So, would you consider investing in new builds or second-hand investments today?

Well, you know, DHT today already has got significant exposure to the market, and we feel we are very well positioned to sort of harvest a very interesting period ahead of us. That being said, we are, of course, turning every stone to look at opportunities that can create value for our shareholders and increase earnings per share accordingly. And that includes also aspects of potential growth. It's looking at second-hand vessels, we're looking at M&A, and, of course, also looking at new buildings. And if we decide to do something, we will, of course, notify the market once that is considered a firm business.

Sure. And if I may ask, what kind of financial leverage ratios do you prefer now? Well, you have very low lent values of 20%. Do you tend to keep it relatively low leveraged, or could you increase it? Let's say, I guess, in order to keep up the 100% of earnings per share as dividend, there's definitely room to increase that. Maybe that amortization up to a little depreciation could be our target. What do you think?

So, you know, our balance sheet today has a meaningful capacity to invest, and we hope to find the right opportunities to expand the company with the right transactions. And in that regard, we will use the balance sheet, and I lever up a bit. So, leverage today, mark-to-market, is just shy of 20%.

I think another sort of good reference on this is that on book value, we only have 28%. So, we could sort of move leverage on the mark-to-market, say, comfortably to around the 30% mark, and this will not impair the dividend capacity and sort of earnings per share. And that's very important for us, is that anything we do has to be accretive to earnings per share and not really distort the commitment to pay out 100% of net income.

Good to hear. Thank you.

Thank you, Frode.

John Chappell, Evercore.

Thank you. Good afternoon. Just a quick housekeeping one first. If I look at the first-quarter spot days expected, it looks like it's maybe 80 short of what the spot fleet times the number of days in the quarter would be. So, maybe just for the full year, is there a dry-docking schedule or a number of off-hire days schedule for every quarter this year that we could know at this point?

We are, in general, very light on dry docks this year, but there are some dry-docking days in the first quarter. So, our older ships, three of them will go into dry dock and have service really in the first half. And some of those days are in the first quarter.

Okay. And then nothing really in the second half of the year?

Yeah, that's correct. So, I think, yeah, that's correct. And we have one ship, if my correction is correct, next year.

One next year. Okay, great. And then, just kind of a bigger picture, I think we spoke about this last call maybe. There's a lot of volatility in the smaller size ships for many of the geopolitical reasons that you spoke to or that we already know about.

The Vs have done well, but they certainly haven't done quite to the extent that maybe the smaller crew or even the bigger product tankers have. What do you think it's going to take for the VLCCs to kind of show some of the upside volatility, maybe of some of the others? Is it strictly reliant on OPEC increasing production again? Is it maybe cannibalization of some of the strength in the Aframax and Suezmax markets? Or is there something even beyond that?

There's probably several things, right? We do sense and hear that there is some increasing level of fatigue in being able to receive and transport in sort of the more shadowy markets, so to say. And it creates challenges for receivers to plan logistics, efficient port utilization, and all of this. And it also costs more. And we see now, I think we understand there's some 10, 12 ships storing sanctioned crude in Southeast Asia that has been unsuccessful to deliver those crudes to end users because of payment problems.

So I think all this sanctioned activity is sort of slowly starting to bite. And then, of course, people will start to increasingly look at energy security and more sort of compliant and reliant supply chain. So that, I think, will evolve. But this is not happening overnight.

But just taking a step back, if you look at our earnings last year, it's a pretty healthy number. And although these receipts historically have been the most volatile, now certainly we are not, and quite stable and giving us sort of very, I think, good prospects going forward.

We have a sense now that some of the biggest refineries in the Far East, maybe in China in particular, are drawing on inventories. So there is a sort of imbalance now, and this has to be fixed. And this is likely a first-half event. Whether this is just after Chinese New Year or May or June, I don't know. But where there will be more oil coming to market as inventory levels are likely too at a quite low level.

And you also see at the same time signs that the economy is looking more promising than it has done for quite a while. And there are sort of small drips of good news coming along the way. So there might not be one big dramatic event that changes the game. But there will be a tipping point where suddenly these things move. And I think then the big ships will stand to be well-rewarded.

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you, Svein.

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

Thank you. Hi, Svein. Hi, Laila. Just wanted to follow up on John's question just kind of about the market as it is. And for VLCC specifically, we've seen the Red Sea has been an issue now for a few months now. But really, over the past few weeks, we started to see the acceleration of tankers diverting. And obviously, that's been much more of a midsize situation, not necessarily the VLCCs. But just wanted to get sort of your perspective on how do you think this all starts to play out for VLCCs in the near term? Obviously, who knows how long the diversions will last for? But just based off of what we're seeing in the market today with the ships that are now transitioning away for longer, how do you see that eventually impacting the VLCCs?

Well, the Red Sea issue has had a fairly limited impact on the VLCC business. So if the issue is being removed, it will also have a limited impact. But it looks like it will stay on for a little while. And I think it will incrementally, or exponentially rather, increase transportation costs for smaller ships going around and thereby making the bigger ships more favorable. So that could sort of be something that plays out.

But I think in the actual freight market, as I said, the Red Sea issue has had a very limited impact. It has maybe had a bigger impact in the stock market in how people try to trade the event and the noise. And are there more missiles hitting ships or is there some peace talks being negotiated and what not that is influencing the capital markets. But the underlying business is relatively stable.

Although I would say right now, as we speak, the freight market is moving up. So especially cargos out of the Middle East, the list of ships are now very tight. And you have owners that have been a bit reluctant to go to the area in general. So this has maybe impacted why the ship lists are shorter.

So now AGE is on par with the US Gulf Far East trade essentially. So modern ships are earning now in the low to mid 50s for a sort of straight run business. And I would be surprised if this has got more legs in the imminent future.

(Operator Instructions) Robert Silvera, RE Silvera & Associates Marine Surveyors.

Yes, thank you for taking my call. I'd like to look at the optics of the dividend. Your net earnings, of course, earnings per share, $0.22, and you generously giving us the $0.22. That optic and the optic of ship owners not contracting for many new ships says that this is a cash cow business with not a great future. I personally and my company think that that is a big mistake. Oil is going to be around and the need to ship it on ocean. Is going to be around for a very long time.

We, from our perspective, would love to see you when you come up with a $0.22 dividend, retain approximately 10% and keep it at $0.20, saving that $0.02 to build cash. We don't know what the future holds. Obviously, the world can be quite unstable at times. And usually when that takes place, cash is king for one reason or another.

So we would love to see you on a proportion like your $0.22 this time. Instead, just issue $0.20. Keep the $0.02 and keep showing the market that you really believe in the future and that you're building your cash so that we're not working for banks when an emergency comes, but rather we are getting more and more cash rich as time goes on. That's the first part of my question. Thank you for sharing your views.

Thank you for sharing your views. We are already building cash, but still being able to retain the 100% of net income as a dividend because the cash break-even, as Laila talked about, for 2024 is $8,900 per day lower than the P&L break-even, which is the threshold for dividends. This is because depreciation is higher than amortization. So we are building cash without having to be making smaller adjustments to the dividend.

I think there is some merit in having a very clear and well-defined dividend policy that people understand that this fixed percentage of net income, it will allow the investors, although we are in a market where earnings vary, it's very clear what they will get out of the business without impairing the balance sheet of the company or reducing our ability to be able to invest. We are committed to the current policy and that is what you should expect going forward.

Okay. Well, for me, from our standpoint, it's kind of an optic thing. If you look at 2022, your cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year were $125 million -- $126 million. At the end of this year, you're down to $75 million approximately. So overall, year-over-year, your cash is dropping. I (multiple speakers)

No, that's -- Excuse me for interrupting you for a moment there, but you're forgetting that we made an investment last summer in a five-year-old ship at $94.5 million. We did this without issuing any new equity and that was cash reserves that were built up despite paying out 100% on net income. That was accretive to earnings immediately for all the shareholders. That's where the difference in cash position is reflected.

Okay. I accept that.

Thank you.

The other thing that troubles us is you had a couple of years ago pledged you were going to aggressively lower debt. I remember the days when you were around $900 million. Of course, you are down considerably to that, down to $354 million in debt, but it's up from 2022 where it was $271 million. We would just like to see you come off optically, I'm saying, as if this business has a very long-term future that's going to grow and significantly reward as you have in the past.

Don't get me wrong. I think you guys have done a great job and we're very happy as shareholders for years now. It's an optical thing and apparently the ship owners in general, they're not placing orders for new tankers. The industry seems to be looking at its future as if oil is going to disappear. I think we both agree that that's not realistic at all.

We would just like to see you continue on that path of significantly pointing out the reduction of debt and the idea of keeping, like I said, keeping a little bit back, not more than 10% of what you could pay as a dividend according to the way you're going now. This shows that we see the future brightly and we're reserving cash. We're strengthening our balance sheet even more rapidly than the rate in which you're doing it now. That's where we're coming from and it's an optic thing. We're very happy and we thank you very much for doing such a great job.

Thank you very much for your kind words. We appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us. Thank you.

God bless you.

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to put myself back in the queue. Maybe two more follow-ups. Just one back to start to bring it back to the Red Sea. I did want to ask, because you mentioned that it hasn't been much of an impact for VLCCs, but just in general, do you think there's maybe perhaps like a backdoor way that VLCCs benefit from this? Just in terms of Suezmaxs and Aframaxs that would normally be competing against VLCCs in, say, the Middle East market. Those are now diverting and thus not as able to compete going forward. Is that something or is there just not enough of a competition from them in the first place for it to really matter?

I think if the situation stays on for a good while, that will happen. In the short term, of course, people are sort of scrambling just to fix the immediate problem and getting the oil delivered as quickly as they can. But the cost of bringing Suezmax and not talking about an Aframax around South Africa to avoid the canal compared to doing a big ship is significant. If this stays on for a little while longer, then people will increasingly move those barrels into bigger ships, we think. So you're right in your loaded question that the VLCCs will stand to benefit from this if this carries on for a while.

Okay. Thank you. Just one quick one on fleet acquisitions and that type of thing. Clearly, the fleet you mentioned is aging rapidly. There's not a lot of capacity coming on until '27. Asset values have risen materially and I know it makes it difficult to get deals done, although the one you mentioned last year looked like a good price at a good time. What do you think about going older in this environment? Does it make sense to look out for ships in that 10-plus-year range, going down a bit on the age range, but perhaps getting a better ROE potential in this market?

Of course, you employ less cash than older ships, obviously. There is a meaningful earnings differential between the ships that were built after '15, given their eco-designs, and their older siblings. You need to reflect that into your investment calculation.

I think there are a number of customers that will have to be more dynamic in looking at the age of ships. Operating costs are a bit higher, so there are a lot of details there, not just a headline number and a quick one on the 12th seat.

We are, of course, running numbers on everything, but I think it's important that we do get good fuel economics in older ships. It also relates to the CII trajectory. It relates to access to time charters in due course if that's something we want to have in the portfolio.

It's not a simple fix to do that. Of course, we keep a keen eye on all these things. If the dislocation is bigger than it is now, maybe you have to look at that. I don't think it's sufficient to justify going older versus going younger, although the nominal number is higher on the younger end.

Got it. Understood. Fine. Thank you. That's very clear. I'll turn it over.

Okay. Thank you, Omar.

Stefano Grasso, 8VantEdge.

Hello. Hi, Svein and team. Congratulations on the quarter. Just to follow up on the capital allocation, it looks like we're going to have two, three years with no deliveries and the supply-demand tightening up as we go along. Of course, we can't predict who is going to order what, but let's say that at some point some vests are going to be ordered. It will still take two, three years at the minimum for these deliveries to have an impact and rebalance the boom-and-bust cycle. That's probably out six-plus years. Is that plausible for DHT to basically do nothing for six-plus years, get the cash flow from the fleet and wait for that bust further out to happen, and then, in the typical style of DHT, take advantage of that market and get longer-gain vessels?

It's a good question. Of course, it's possible, but it will involve having a different strategic take on how to run the business. Today, our fleet is just shy of 10 years old on average. If you look 6 years out, it becomes 16, and the company will shrink quite meaningfully. We might be debt-free, but then, we will have much less ability to do things than what we do today. I think if a strategy like that at all were to be contemplated, it would be more running the business out in totality and pay out all the money and close shop at some point.

But that is not in the cards. We believe it will be possible to do things, to invest for the company and do good things for the company. We have our eyes on that. So hopefully, we can uncover the right opportunity and put that to bed and continue to develop the company.

I think in our current format and strategy, it's unrealistic. I think some of our key customers will also potentially not be as supportive as they are today.

Thank you.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions at this time. I will hand back to the speakers for any closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you very much to all for listening in on DHT's quarterly earnings call. Much appreciated and wishing you all a good day ahead.