達樂 (DG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Robert, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Dollar General Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today is Thursday, March 14, 2024. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫羅伯特，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Dollar General 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天是 2024 年 3 月 14 日，星期四。（操作員說明）此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

Now I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Kevin Walker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Kevin, you may now begin your conference.

現在我想把會議交給東道主投資者關係副總裁凱文沃克先生。凱文，你現在可以開始你的會議了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me today are Todd Vasos, our CEO; and Kelly Dilts, our CFO. Our earnings release issued today can be found on our website at investor.dollargeneral.com under News & Events.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天與我通話的是我們的執行長 Todd Vasos；和我們的財務長凱利·迪爾茨 (Kelly Dilts)。我們今天發布的收益報告可以在我們的網站 Investor.dollargeneral.com 的「新聞與活動」下找到。

Let me caution you that today's comments include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 such as statements about our financial guidance, strategy, initiatives, plans, goals, priorities, opportunities, expectations or beliefs about future matters and other statements that are not limited to historical fact. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These factors include, but are not limited to, those identified in our earnings release issued this morning under Risk Factors in our 2023 Form 10-K filed on March 24, 2023, and any later filed periodic report and in the comments that are made on this call. You should not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date.

讓我提醒您，今天的評論包括1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述，例如有關我們的財務指導、策略、舉措、計劃、目標、優先事項、機會、對未來事務的期望或信念的陳述，以及其他不限於歷史事實的陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些因素包括但不限於我們今天早上發布的收益報告中在 2023 年 3 月 24 日提交的 2023 年 10-K 表格以及任何後來提交的定期報告中的風險因素項下確定的因素，以及在這個電話。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，這些陳述僅代表今天的情況。

Dollar General disclaims any obligation to update or revise any information discussed in this call unless required by law. At the end of our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for your questions. (Operator Instructions)

除非法律要求，否則 Dollar General 不承擔更新或修改本次電話會議中討論的任何資訊的義務。在我們準備好的演講結束時，我們將開始徵集您的問題。 （操作員說明）

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Todd.

現在我很高興將電話轉給托德。

Thank you, Kevin, and welcome to everyone joining our call. I want to begin by thanking our associates for their commitment to serving our customers and their communities this year. I'm proud of the team's resilience and sense of purpose in fulfilling our mission of serving others. I was reminded again recently of the tremendous opportunity we have to serve as America's neighborhood general store as we celebrated the grand opening of our 20,000th store in Ellis, Texas. Our entire team takes great pride in serving the communities we call home with value and convenience every day.

謝謝你，凱文，歡迎大家加入我們的通話。首先，我要感謝我們的員工今年致力於為我們的客戶及其社區提供服務。我為團隊在履行服務他人使命方面的韌性和使命感感到自豪。最近，當我們慶祝德克薩斯州埃利斯第 20,000 家商店盛大開幕時，我再次想起我們作為美國社區雜貨店所面臨的巨大機會。我們的整個團隊為每天為我們稱之為家的社區提供價值和便利而感到自豪。

On today's call, I will begin by recapping some of the highlights of our Q4 performance as well as briefly sharing some of our plans for 2024. After that, Kelly will share our Q4 financial update and our financial guidance for 2024. And then I'll wrap up the call with an update on our work in getting back to the basics in our execution across the business.

在今天的電話會議上，我將首先回顧我們第四季度業績的一些亮點，並簡要分享我們2024 年的一些計劃。之後，凱利將分享我們第四季度的財務更新和2024 年的財務指導。然後我'我們將通過有關我們工作的最新情況來結束這次通話，以回到我們在整個業務中執行的基礎知識。

Turning to our fourth quarter performance. Net sales decreased 3.4% to $9.9 billion in Q4 compared to net sales of $10.2 billion in last year's fourth quarter. This decrease was primarily driven by lapping sales of $678 million from the 53rd week in fiscal 2022. Our net sales performance was highlighted by accelerating market share growth in both dollars and units in highly consumable product sales as well as market share growth in dollars in nonconsumable product sales.

轉向我們第四季的業績。第四季淨銷售額下降 3.4%，至 99 億美元，而去年第四季淨銷售額為 102 億美元。這一下降主要是由於2022 財年第53 週的研磨銷售額為6.78 億美元。我們的淨銷售業績突顯在高消耗品銷售中以美元和單位計算的市場份額加速成長以及非消耗品市場份額的成長。產品銷售。

Same-store sales grew 0.7% in Q4 and increased sequentially each period of the quarter, which we believe is a testament to the positive early impact of some of our Back to Basics work. The increase was driven by growth of nearly 4% in customer traffic, which was positive in all 3 periods of the quarter, and partially offset by a decline in average transaction amount, primarily driven by fewer items per basket.

第四季同店銷售額成長 0.7%，且該季度每個時期都連續成長，我們認為這證明了我們的一些回歸基礎工作的正面早期影響。這一增長是由近4% 的客戶流量增長推動的，該增長在本季度的所有3 個時期都是積極的，但部分被平均交易額的下降所抵消，這主要是由於每個購物籃中的商品減少所致。

Additionally, the comp sales increase was driven entirely by our consumable category and was partially offset by declines in the home, seasonal and apparel categories. Customers are continuing to feel the impact of the last 2 years of inflation, which we believe is driving them to make trade-offs in the store. We see this manifested in the continued pressure on sales in discretionary categories as well as accelerated share growth and penetration in private brand sales.

此外，公司銷售額的成長完全是由我們的消費品類別所推動的，但部分被家居、季節性和服裝類別的下降所抵消。顧客繼續感受到過去兩年通貨膨脹的影響，我們認為這促使他們在商店中做出權衡。我們認為這體現在非必需品類的銷售持續面臨壓力，以及自有品牌銷售的份額成長和滲透率加速。

Our commitment to providing customers with value and convenience is as important as ever. We continue to feel very good about our pricing position relative to our competitors and other classes of trade and are well positioned to help our customers stretch their dollar. As we look to further enhance the shopping experience for our customers in 2024, I want to provide a quick update on some of our plans.

我們為客戶提供價值和便利的承諾一如既往地重要。相對於競爭對手和其他行業，我們仍然對自己的定價地位感到非常滿意，並且有能力幫助我們的客戶節省開支。我們希望在 2024 年進一步增強客戶的購物體驗，我想快速介紹我們的一些計劃。

We executed more than 3,000 real estate projects in 2023, including 987 new stores, 129 relocations and 2,007 remodels. We expect to build on this momentum in 2024 as we plan to execute approximately 2,385 projects, including 800 new store openings, 1,500 remodels and 85 relocations. These store opening plans include 30 pOpshelf stores and up to 15 stores in Mexico, where we recently celebrated the 1-year anniversary of our first store opening. We recently began shipping from pOpshelf-only distribution facility in Georgia, which will allow us to drive greater efficiencies in our existing traditional distribution network and better serve our pOpshelf stores.

2023年，我們執行了超過3,000個房地產項目，其中包括987個新店、129個搬遷項目和2,007個改造項目。我們預計將在 2024 年延續這一勢頭，計劃執行約 2,385 個項目，包括 800 家新店開業、1,500 家改造和 85 家搬遷。這些開店計劃包括 30 家 pOpshelf 商店和墨西哥最多 15 家商店，我們最近在墨西哥慶祝了第一家商店開業一周年紀念日。我們最近開始從喬治亞州的 pOpshelf 分銷設施發貨，這將使我們能夠提高現有傳統分銷網絡的效率，並更好地為我們的 pOpshelf 商店提供服務。

As a reminder, pOpshelf is comprised of primarily nonconsumable product categories and, as such, is more heavily impacted by a softer discretionary sales environment. As a result, we believe we are moving at an appropriate pace of openings for this year.

需要提醒的是，pOpshelf 主要由非消耗性產品類別組成，因此更容易受到較疲軟的可自由支配銷售環境的影響。因此，我們相信今年我們將以適當的速度開業。

We continue to believe that the pOpshelf concept provides an additional growth opportunity, but are cognizant of the near-term pressures impacting nonconsumable sales. We continue to diligently apply our learnings and refine our strategy and scaling of the business to drive higher returns.

我們仍然相信 pOpshelf 概念提供了額外的成長機會，但也認識到影響非消費品銷售的近期壓力。我們繼續勤奮地運用我們所學到的知識，完善我們的策略和業務規模，以推動更高的回報。

Finally, we have always prioritized going where the customer wants us to go. And we continue to hear from many of them regarding more fresh food options. Thanks to years of great work by our teams to add cooler doors to our stores while enabling the self-distribution of these products, we now have nearly 30 doors per store on average, with ongoing opportunities to add cooler doors and frozen and refrigerated items through our fresh initiative. In addition, we have fresh produce in more than 5,400 stores at the end of the year and are targeting up to 1,500 additional stores for produce in 2024.

最後，我們始終優先考慮客戶希望我們去的地方。我們不斷收到他們中許多人關於更多新鮮食品選擇的消息。由於我們的團隊多年來為商店添加冷藏門以及實現這些產品的自我分銷而付出的巨大努力，我們現在每家商店平均擁有近30 個門，並且不斷有機會通過以下方式添加冷藏門以及冷凍和冷藏物品我們的新措施。此外，截至今年底，我們在 5,400 多家商店中銷售生鮮農產品，並計劃在 2024 年新增 1,500 家商店銷售生鮮農產品。

Overall, we are pleased with the progress we made in Q4, which I will discuss in more details later. And we are excited about our plans for 2024. As we embark on our 85th year in business and with store locations within 5 miles of approximately 75% of the U.S. population, we are uniquely positioned as a growth company that is privileged to be here for what matters for millions of customers across the country. We take this responsibility seriously and are committed to serving our customers and communities while developing and supporting our associates and creating long-term shareholder value.

總的來說，我們對第四季度的進展感到滿意，我將在稍後詳細討論。我們對2024 年的計畫感到興奮。在我們踏入營業第85 個年頭之際，我們的門市分佈在約75% 的美國人口的5 英里範圍內，我們作為一家成長型公司擁有獨特的地位，我們很榮幸能夠在這裡為您提供服務。對於全國數百萬客戶來說什麼是最重要的。我們認真對待這項責任，致力於服務我們的客戶和社區，同時發展和支持我們的員工並創造長期股東價值。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kelly.

現在我將把電話轉給凱利。

Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Now that Todd has taken you through a few highlights of the quarter and full year, let me take you through some of the important financial details. Unless we specifically note otherwise, all comparisons are year-over-year, all references to EPS refer to diluted earnings per share and all years noted refer to the corresponding fiscal year.

謝謝托德，大家早安。現在托德已經向您介紹了本季和全年的一些亮點，讓我向您介紹一些重要的財務細節。除非我們另有特別說明，否則所有比較均為同比，所有對每股收益的提及均指稀釋後的每股收益，所有提及的年份均指相應的財政年度。

As Todd already discussed sales, I'll start with gross profit. For Q4, gross profit as a percentage of sales was 29.5%, a decrease of 138 basis points. This decrease was primarily attributable to increases in shrink and markdowns, lower inventory markups and a greater proportion of sales coming from the consumables category. These were partially offset by decreases in LIFO and transportation costs. Notably, year-over-year shrink headwinds continued to build during the year, increasing more than 100 basis points for both the fourth quarter and full year. We are taking multiple actions aimed at reducing shrink in 2024, which Todd will discuss in more detail later in the call.

由於托德已經討論過銷售，我將從毛利開始。第四季度，毛利佔銷售額的百分比為29.5%，下降138個基點。這一下降主要歸因於損耗和降價的增加、庫存加價的降低以及來自消耗品類別的銷售比例增加。這些被後進先出和運輸成本的下降部分抵消。值得注意的是，年內年比收縮阻力持續增加，第四季和全年均增加超過 100 個基點。我們正在採取多項行動，旨在減少 2024 年的損耗，托德將在稍後的電話會議中更詳細地討論這一點。

Turning to SG&A. It was 23.6% as a percentage of sales, an increase of 189 basis points. This increase was primarily driven by retail labor, including the remaining $50 million of our targeted labor investment as well as store occupancy costs, depreciation and amortization, repairs and maintenance and other services purchased, including debit and credit card transaction fees. These increased expenses were partially offset by a decrease in incentive compensation.

轉向SG&A。佔銷售額的百分比為23.6%，成長了189個基點。這一增長主要是由零售勞動力推動的，包括我們目標勞動力投資的剩餘 5000 萬美元以及商店佔用成本、折舊和攤銷、維修和保養以及購買的其他服務，包括借記卡和信用卡交易費用。這些增加的費用被激勵薪酬的減少部分抵消。

Moving down the income statement. Operating profit for the fourth quarter decreased 37.9% to $580 million. As a percentage of sales, operating profit was 5.9%, a decrease of 327 basis points. Interest expense for the quarter increased to $77 million compared to $75 million in last year's fourth quarter.

將損益表向下移動。第四季營業利潤下降 37.9% 至 5.8 億美元。營業利潤佔銷售額的百分比為 5.9%，下降 327 個基點。本季利息支出增至 7,700 萬美元，去年第四季為 7,500 萬美元。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 20% and compares to 23.2% in the fourth quarter last year. This lower rate is primarily due to the effect of certain rate-impacting items such as federal tax credits on lower earnings before taxes as well as lower state effective rate resulting from increased recognition of state tax credits.

我們本季的有效稅率為 20%，而去年第四季的有效稅率為 23.2%。較低的稅率主要是由於某些影響利率的項目的影響，例如聯邦稅收抵免對稅前利潤的降低以及由於對州稅收抵免的認可程度提高而導致的州有效稅率降低。

Finally, EPS for the quarter decreased 38% to $1.83, which was at the higher end of our internal expectations. For the full year, EPS decreased 29% to $7.55, including an estimated negative impact of approximately 4 percentage points from lapping the 53rd week and a negative impact of approximately 4 percentage points from higher interest expense.

最後，本季每股盈餘下降 38% 至 1.83 美元，處於我們內部預期的較高端。全年每股收益下降 29% 至 7.55 美元，其中包括第 53 週預計帶來的約 4 個百分點的負面影響以及利息支出增加帶來的約 4 個百分點的負面影響。

Turning now to our balance sheet and cash flow. Merchandise inventories were $7 billion at the end of the year, an increase of 3.5% compared to fiscal year 2022 and a decrease of 1.1% on a per store basis. Notably, total nonconsumable inventory decreased approximately 17% compared to last year and decreased 21% on a per store basis. I want to acknowledge the great work the team has done to reduce our inventory position this year. We've made significant progress optimizing our inventory mix and levels, and we continue to believe that the quality of our inventory remains good. As Todd will discuss in a few moments, we will continue to focus on inventory levels in 2024, including additional opportunities to reduce per store inventory.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和現金流。截至年底，商品庫存為 70 億美元，較 2022 財年增長 3.5%，每家商店減少 1.1%。值得注意的是，與去年相比，非消耗品總庫存減少了約 17%，每家商店的庫存減少了 21%。我要感謝團隊今年為減少庫存狀況所做的出色工作。我們在優化庫存組合和水平方面取得了重大進展，並且我們仍然相信我們的庫存品質仍然良好。正如托德稍後將討論的那樣，我們將繼續關注 2024 年的庫存水平，包括減少每家商店庫存的更多機會。

In 2023, the business generated cash flows from operations of $2.4 billion, an increase of 21% as we improved our working capital primarily through inventory management. Total capital expenditures were $1.7 billion, in line with our expectations and included our planned investments in new stores, remodels and relocations, distribution and transportation projects and spending related to our strategic initiatives.

2023 年，由於我們主要透過庫存管理改善了營運資金，該業務產生了 24 億美元的營運現金流，成長了 21%。總資本支出為 17 億美元，符合我們的預期，包括我們計劃對新店、改造和搬遷、分銷和運輸項目以及與我們的戰略舉措相關的支出的投資。

During the quarter, we returned cash to shareholders through a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per common share outstanding for a total payment of $130 million. Overall, we are pleased with the progress we are making, including gains in customer traffic and market share, lower inventory levels and improving cash flow from operations.

本季度，我們透過每股已發行普通股 0.59 美元的季度股息向股東返還現金，總支付額為 1.3 億美元。總體而言，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，包括客戶流量和市場份額的增加、庫存水準的降低以及營運現金流的改善。

Moving to our financial outlook for fiscal 2024. While we continue to make progress in our Back to Basics work, the full benefits from these actions will not be realized in a single quarter, and we anticipate they will build as we move throughout the year. With that in mind, we expect the following for 2024: net sales growth in the range of approximately 6% to 6.7%, same-store sales growth in the range of 2% to 2.7% and an EPS in the range of $6.80 to $7.55. We currently anticipate an estimated negative impact to EPS of approximately $0.50 due to higher incentive compensation expense. Our EPS guidance assumes an effective tax rate in the range of 22.5% to 23.5%.

轉向我們對2024 財年的財務展望。雖然我們在回歸基礎的工作中繼續取得進展，但這些行動的全部效益不會在一個季度內實現，我們預計它們將隨著我們全年的進展而逐漸實現。考慮到這一點，我們對 2024 年的預期如下：淨銷售額增長約 6% 至 6.7%，同店銷售額增長 2% 至 2.7%，每股收益在 6.80 美元至 7.55 美元之間。目前，由於激勵補償費用增加，我們預計對 EPS 的負面影響約為 0.50 美元。我們的 EPS 指導假設有效稅率在 22.5% 至 23.5% 範圍內。

We expect a reduced level of capital spending as a percent of sales compared to prior year in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion, which we believe is appropriate to support our ongoing growth.

我們預計資本支出佔銷售額的百分比將比上年減少 13 億至 14 億美元，我們認為這適合支持我們的持續成長。

Before I move on, I want to reiterate our capital allocation priorities, which we believe continue to serve us well and guide us today. Our first priority is investing in our business, including our existing store base as well as high-return organic growth opportunities such as new store expansion and strategic initiatives. Next, we seek to return cash to shareholders through a quarterly dividend payment and over time and when appropriate, share repurchases.

在繼續之前，我想重申我們的資本配置優先事項，我們相信這些優先事項將繼續為我們提供良好服務並指導我們今天。我們的首要任務是投資我們的業務，包括我們現有的商店基礎以及高回報的有機成長機會，例如新店擴張和策略舉措。接下來，我們尋求透過季度股息支付以及隨著時間的推移並在適當的情況下回購股票，向股東返還現金。

With regard to shareholder returns this year, our Board recently approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share.

關於今年的股東回報，我們的董事會最近批准了每股 0.59 美元的季度現金股息。

Finally, to support reducing our debt leverage ratio and maintaining our current investment-grade credit ratings, we do not plan to repurchase common stock this year under our Board-authorized repurchase program. Although as I mentioned, share repurchases remain a part of our future capital allocation strategy.

最後，為了支持降低我們的債務槓桿率並維持我們目前的投資等級信用評級，我們今年不計劃根據董事會授權的回購計畫回購普通股。儘管正如我所提到的，股票回購仍然是我們未來資本配置策略的一部分。

Although our leverage ratio is currently above our target of approximately 3x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR, we are focused on improving our debt metrics in support of our commitment to our current investment-grade credit ratings which, as a reminder, are BBB and Baa2.

儘管我們的槓桿率目前高於調整後債務與調整後 EBITDAR 約 3 倍的目標，但我們專注於改善債務指標，以支持我們對當前投資級信用評級的承諾，提醒您的是 BBB 和 Baa2。

Cash generation is always important, and we are focused on further improving cash flow as we move through 2024. We believe these actions, which are aligned with our capital allocation priorities, will continue to strengthen our overall financial position for 2024 and beyond.

現金產生始終很重要，在 2024 年到來之際，我們的重點是進一步改善現金流。我們相信，這些與我們的資本配置優先事項相一致的行動將繼續加強我們 2024 年及以後的整體財務狀況。

Now let me provide some additional context as it relates to our outlook for 2024. As Todd noted, inflation continues to impact our customer as they make trade-offs in the aisle and we anticipate the related sales mix headwind to gross margin will continue in 2024. In addition, after multiple years of fewer markdowns, we expect the overall promotional environment in 2024 to revert to pre-pandemic levels. We anticipate this will result in higher promotional markdowns, which will offset the lower clearance markdowns compared to last year and we'll keep overall markdowns as a percent of sales in 2024 at a similar level to 2023. In addition, we expect shrink to be an ongoing headwind to gross margin in the first part of the year before the anticipated positive impact of our mitigation efforts begin to manifest in the back half of the year.

現在讓我提供一些與我們2024 年展望相關的額外背景資訊。正如托德指出的那樣，通貨膨脹繼續影響我們的客戶，因為他們在過道上進行權衡，我們預計相關銷售組合對毛利率的不利影響2024 年將繼續存在此外，經過多年的降價減少，我們預計2024年整體促銷環境將恢復到疫情前的水平。我們預計這將導致更高的促銷降價，這將抵消與去年相比較低的清倉降價，並且我們將把2024 年總體降價佔銷售額的百分比保持在與2023 年類似的水平。此外，我們預計降價將在我們的緩解措施的預期積極影響在今年下半年開始顯現之前，今年上半年毛利率持續面臨阻力。

Turning to SG&A. As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate a significant headwind this year from the normalization of incentive compensation as well as ongoing headwind from depreciation and amortization. Looking at the quarterly SG&A cadence, while we expect to deleverage each quarter, we also expect sequential quarterly improvement in the year-over-year basis point comparison as we move through the year. In addition, we expect pressure in Q1 as we annualize some of the headwinds from 2023, including shrink and our investment in retail labor as well as pressure from markdowns, which we expect will have a different cadence than 2023, which was back half heavy.

轉向SG&A。正如我之前提到的，我們預計今年激勵薪酬正常化以及折舊和攤提將帶來持續的阻力。從季度銷售、管理及行政費用節奏來看，雖然我們預期每季都會去槓桿化，但我們也預期隨著全年基點比較的逐季改善。此外，我們預計第一季將面臨壓力，因為我們將2023 年以來的一些不利因素年化，包括零售勞動力的萎縮和投資以及降價壓力，我們預計第一季的節奏將與2023 年有所不同， 2023 年的節奏回落了一半。

While we do not typically provide quarterly guidance, given the specific Q1 headwinds, we are providing more specific detail on our expectations for the first quarter. To that end, we expect a comp sales increase of 1.5% to 2% in the first quarter, with EPS in the range of approximately $1.50 to $1.60.

雖然我們通常不會提供季度指引，但考慮到第一季的具體不利因素，我們將提供有關第一季預期的更具體細節。為此，我們預計第一季公司銷售額將成長 1.5% 至 2%，每股收益約為 1.50 美元至 1.60 美元。

In summary, we are confident in the long-term strategy for this company and believe we are well positioned to drive top and bottom line growth in the years ahead. In the near term, we are taking actions to strengthen our position to support long-term growth with our Back to Basics efforts with a particular focus on driving comp sales, gaining market share and reducing shrink.

總之，我們對該公司的長期策略充滿信心，並相信我們有能力在未來幾年推動營收和利潤的成長。短期內，我們將採取行動，透過回歸基礎的努力，鞏固我們的地位，支持長期成長，特別注重推動同品銷售、贏得市場份額和減少萎縮。

Over the long term, our underlying opportunities to grow operating margin are still in place, including shrink reduction, the DG Media Network, private brands, global sourcing, category management and inventory optimization, distribution and transportation efficiencies and our Save to Serve approach to controlling costs. We remain committed to maintaining our discipline in how we manage expenses and capital as a low-cost operator with the goal of delivering consistent, strong financial performance while strategically investing for the long term.

從長遠來看，我們提高營業利潤的潛在機會仍然存在，包括減少損耗、DG 媒體網絡、自有品牌、全球採購、品類管理和庫存優化、分銷和運輸效率以及我們的「節省服務」控制方法成本。我們仍致力於維持作為低成本營運商管理費用和資本的紀律，目標是提供一致、強勁的財務業績，同時進行長期策略投資。

We are pleased with our progress, and we are excited about our plans for 2024 as we continue to reinforce our foundation for future growth, while driving profitable same-store sales growth, healthy new store returns, strong free cash flow and long-term shareholder value.

我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，並對 2024 年的計劃感到興奮，因為我們將繼續鞏固未來成長的基礎，同時推動盈利的同店銷售成長、健康的新店回報、強勁的自由現金流和長期股東價值。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Todd.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給托德。

Thank you, Kelly. We remain committed to our 4 operating priorities of driving profitable sales growth, capturing growth opportunities, leveraging and reinforcing our position as a low-cost operator and investing in our diverse teams through development, empowerment and inclusion.

謝謝你，凱利。我們仍然致力於我們的 4 個營運重點，即推動獲利性銷售成長、抓住成長機會、利用和鞏固我們作為低成本營運商的地位，以及透過發展、授權和包容來投資我們的多元化團隊。

To advance these priorities in the near term and following the period of evaluation of the challenges and opportunities in front of us, we have implemented a refresh approach to getting back to the basics to improve store standards and the associate and customer experience in our stores. I want to take the next few minutes to provide an update on these efforts in our stores, supply chain and merchandising.

為了在短期內推進這些優先事項，並在評估我們面臨的挑戰和機會之後，我們實施了一種更新方法，回歸基礎，以提高商店標準以及商店中的員工和客戶體驗。我想用接下來的幾分鐘來介紹我們在商店、供應鏈和銷售方面所做的努力的最新情況。

To better inform these efforts, the leadership team has spent a significant amount of time over the last couple of months directly engaging with our associates throughout the organization, including listening sessions in stores, distribution centers and our store support center. We also hosted more than 400 field leaders in Nashville in February, and then several of us spent time on the road with more than 1,000 additional leaders across the country. These sessions allowed us to follow up on the feedback we've received, share our action plans and commitments and align our expectations with our teams across the organization. We continue to prioritize this direct engagement with our associates and value the actionable feedback we gain to continue enhancing the way we support our teams and serve our customers, all while strengthening the sense of pride and purpose we all share at Dollar General.

為了更好地為這些工作提供信息，領導團隊在過去幾個月中花費了大量時間與整個組織的員工直接互動，包括在商店、配送中心和商店支援中心舉行聆聽會議。 2 月份，我們還在納許維爾接待了 400 多名現場領導者，然後我們中的一些人在路上與全國各地的 1,000 多名其他領導者會面。這些會議使我們能夠跟進收到的回饋，分享我們的行動計劃和承諾，並使我們的期望與整個組織的團隊保持一致。我們繼續優先考慮與員工的直接接觸，並重視我們獲得的可行回饋，以繼續改進我們支持團隊和服務客戶的方式，同時增強我們在 Dollar General 所共有的自豪感和使命感。

I want to start with our stores, where everything begins and ends with our customer. We completed the investment of $150 million in store labor during the fourth quarter, with the additional hours primarily focused on the 2 areas we discussed on our last quarterly call. First, we significantly increased the employee presence at the front end of our stores. These team members are dedicated to providing a friendly, welcome and positive checkout experience for our customers.

我想從我們的商店開始，一切都以我們的客戶開始和結束。我們在第四季度完成了 1.5 億美元的商店勞動力投資，額外的工作時間主要集中在我們在上一季電話會議上討論的兩個領域。首先，我們大幅增加了商店前端的員工數量。這些團隊成員致力於為我們的客戶提供友善、受歡迎和積極的結帳體驗。

Second, we take dedicated more labor to perpetual inventory management in our stores by adding specific inventory management shifts and specialized inventory training in each store. This effort has been well received by our managers and their teams and has contributed to in-stock level improvements in our stores.

其次，我們透過在每個商店增加特定的庫存管理班次和專門的庫存培訓，在商店的永續庫存管理上投入更多的人力。這項努力得到了我們的經理及其團隊的好評，並有助於提高我們商店的庫存水平。

As we entered 2024, we have also reduced the span of control for our district managers, adding more than 140 new districts and district managers. This significant investment in our field teams reduces the number of stores assigned to each district manager by approximately 15% and is designed to increase both the opportunity for engagement with our store managers and their teams as well as to drive consistency and execution across our store base.

進入 2024 年，我們也縮小了地區經理的控制範圍，增加了 140 多名新地區和地區經理。對我們現場團隊的這項重大投資將分配給每個地區經理的商店數量減少了大約15%，旨在增加與我們的商店經理及其團隊互動的機會，並推動整個商店基地的一致性和執行力。

Finally, we've taken a fresh look at store-level tasks and activities and have taken significant action to make it easier to operate our stores. While we have made progress, we continue to focus on how we can enhance the overall customer and associate experience in our stores.

最後，我們重新審視了商店層級的任務和活動，並採取了重大行動，使我們的商店更容易運作。儘管我們取得了進步，但我們仍繼續關注如何增強商店中客戶和員工的整體體驗。

With that in mind, we are making 3 changes to our self-checkout strategy this year. As a reminder, we currently have self-checkout options available in more than 14,000 stores. Although adoption rates for self-checkout have been high, we believe there is truly no substitute for an employee presence at the front end of the store to greet customers and provide excellent customer service, including at checkout. Importantly, when choosing our self-checkout solution, we implemented a product that is convertible from self-checkout to associate-assisted checkout. To that end, we have begun immediately converting some or all self-checkout registers to assisted-checkout options in approximately 9,000 stores. This is intended to drive traffic first to our staffed registers, with assisted-checkout options available as second or third options to reduce lines during high-volume times.

考慮到這一點，我們今年對自助結帳策略做出了 3 項改變。謹此提醒，目前我們在 14,000 多家商店提供自助結帳選項。儘管自助結帳的採用率很高，但我們相信，確實沒有什麼可以取代員工在商店前端迎接顧客並提供優質的客戶服務，包括在結帳時。重要的是，在選擇自助結帳解決方案時，我們實施了一種可從自助結帳轉換為員工協助結帳的產品。為此，我們已開始立即將大約 9,000 家商店的部分或全部自助結帳轉為輔助結帳選項。這樣做的目的是首先增加我們配備人員的收銀台的流量，並提供輔助結帳選項作為第二或第三個選項，以減少高峰時段的排隊情況。

Our second course of action will apply to all remaining stores with self-checkout, where we have begun limiting self-checkout to transactions consisting of 5 items or less.

我們的第二個行動方案將適用於所有剩餘的自助結帳商店，我們已開始將自助結帳限制為包含 5 件或以下商品的交易。

And finally, over the first half of the year, we plan to completely remove self-checkout from more than 300 of our highest shrink stores. Collectively, we believe these steps are in line with where the customer wants us to be, which includes increasing personal engagement with them at the store. Additionally, we believe these actions have the potential to have a material and positive impact on shrink as we move into the back half of the year and into 2025. The 2024 portion of this benefit as well as additional labor in these stores to devote to the checkout process is included in our guidance that Kelly provided earlier.

最後，我們計劃在今年上半年從 300 多家規模最大的門市中完全取消自助結帳。總的來說，我們相信這些步驟符合客戶希望我們達到的目標，其中包括增加與他們在商店的個人互動。此外，我們相信，隨著我們進入今年下半年和 2025 年，這些行動有可能對收縮產生實質性和積極的影響。這項福利的 2024 年部分以及這些商店的額外勞動力致力於結帳流程包含在凱利之前提供的指南中。

Beyond our changes to self-checkout, we are also executing on a variety of other actions to reduce shrink this year, including inventory reduction efforts, where we see additional opportunity in 2024; SKU rationalization, which I'll discuss more momentarily; additional shrink incentive programs for our store managers to encourage and foster a greater sense of ownership; and the utilization of high-shrink planograms, whereby we will remove certain high-shrink items from high-shrink stores to target the greatest opportunity for improvement. While we anticipate a continuing headwind from shrink early this year, we believe our actions will have a significant mitigation impact in the back half of the year and into 2025.

除了對自助結帳的改變之外，我們今年還採取了各種其他行動來減少損耗，包括減少庫存，我們在 2024 年看到了更多機會； SKU 合理化，我稍後會詳細討論；為我們的商店經理提供額外的縮減激勵計劃，以鼓勵和培養更大的主人翁意識；利用高收縮貨架圖，我們將從高收縮商店中刪除某些高收縮商品，以找到最大的改進機會。雖然我們預計今年年初經濟萎縮將持續帶來阻力，但我們相信我們的行動將在今年下半年和 2025 年產生顯著的緩解影響。

Overall, we believe these actions in our stores will drive improvements in customer satisfaction, including customer service and on-shelf availability and convenience; enhance the associate experience in our stores, including improved employee engagement and retention; and drive improvements in financial results, including sales and shrink.

總體而言，我們相信我們商店中的這些行動將推動客戶滿意度的提高，包括客戶服務以及貨架可用性和便利性；增強商店員工的體驗，包括提高員工敬業度和留任率；推動財務業績的改善，包括銷售和損耗。

Next, let me provide a quick update on our supply chain. As a reminder, our top priority this year is to improve our rates of on-time and in-full truck deliveries, which we refer to as OTIF. Our distribution and transportation teams are laser-focused on serving stores as their most direct customers and are pursuing several opportunities to drive higher OTIF levels. Since Q3, we have seen significant improvements in our on-time deliveries as well as customer service levels. In 2024, we will continue to pursue improvements by undertaking our first full-scale refresh of our sorting process and distribution centers since the launch of our Fast Track sortation initiative in 2017.

接下來，讓我快速介紹一下我們的供應鏈。提醒一下，我們今年的首要任務是提高卡車準時和滿載率，我們稱之為 OTIF。我們的配送和運輸團隊專注於為商店作為最直接的客戶提供服務，並正在尋求多種機會來推動更高的 OTIF 水平。自第三季以來，我們的準時交貨和客戶服務水準有了顯著改善。自 2017 年推出快速通道分類計畫以來，我們將在 2024 年繼續改進，對分類流程和配送中心進行首次全面更新。

With the growth and evolution we have seen since that time, we are further updating the sorting process to improve our distribution flow while enabling our store teams to unload the truck and restock shelves more quickly, ultimately driving greater on-shelf availability for our customers and increased sales.

隨著自那時以來我們所看到的成長和發展，我們正在進一步更新分類流程，以改善我們的配送流程，同時使我們的商店團隊能夠更快地卸載卡車並重新上架，最終為我們的客戶和客戶帶來更高的貨架可用性銷售增加。

In addition to improving OTIF rates, we have also been successful in reducing inventory and optimizing the flow within our supply chain. As we said we would last quarter, we have reduced the number of temporary warehouse facilities, exiting 5 buildings in 2023, with plans to exit 7 more in 2024. We will continue to maintain a few of these temporary facilities that are more complementary to some of our smaller permanent distribution centers, but by reducing the number of outside warehouses, we can lower costs and continue to improve inventory flow throughout our supply chain.

除了提高 OTIF 費率外，我們還成功減少了庫存並優化了供應鏈內的流程。正如我們上季度所說，我們減少了臨時倉庫設施的數量，在2023 年退出5 座建築，併計劃在2024 年再退出7 座。我們將繼續維護其中一些臨時設施，這些設施與一些設施更具互補性。我們的小型永久配送中心，但透過減少外部倉庫的數量，我們可以降低成本並繼續改善整個供應鏈的庫存流動。

As I mentioned earlier, we opened a pOpshelf-only distribution facility earlier this year to improve efficiencies, and we expect to open Dollar General distribution centers in Arkansas and Colorado later this year as we continue to support our ongoing growth. As a result of our reduced inventory levels and optimization of existing distribution centers, we now expect to open the planned facility in Oregon at a date beyond 2024.

正如我之前提到的，我們今年早些時候開設了一家僅限pOpshelf 的配送中心，以提高效率，並且我們預計今年晚些時候將在阿肯色州和科羅拉多州開設Dollar General 配送中心，以繼續支持我們的持續增長。由於我們降低了庫存水準並優化了現有配送中心，我們現在預計將於 2024 年之後在俄勒岡州開設計劃中的工廠。

We are pleased with the progress we've made in our supply chain and are confident in our ability to continue progressing toward our goals. Ultimately, these actions should enhance our ability to meet challenging demands and respond to the challenges within the supply chain as well as drive greater efficiencies and further improve experience for our store teams and customers.

我們對供應鏈所取得的進展感到滿意，並對我們繼續實現目標的能力充滿信心。最終，這些行動將增強我們滿足挑戰性需求和應對供應鏈挑戰的能力，並提高效率並進一步改善我們商店團隊和客戶的體驗。

Finally, I want to provide an update on getting back to the basics in merchandising. Our team continues to prioritize delivering value to our customers while simplifying the work for our store teams and driving profitable sales growth. I want to echo Kelly in acknowledging the great work the team has done on inventory optimization and reduction. This has lowered our carrying costs, driven efficiencies across the supply chain and store base and positions us to better serve our customers. Importantly, we have been able to lower average inventory per store while improving our in-stock rates and driving higher comp sales growth. We expect to continue driving improvement in 2024 with several efforts already underway.

最後，我想提供有關回歸行銷基礎知識的最新資訊。我們的團隊繼續優先考慮為客戶提供價值，同時簡化商店團隊的工作並推動可獲利的銷售成長。我想贊同凱利的觀點，承認團隊在庫存優化和減少方面所做的出色工作。這降低了我們的運輸成本，提高了整個供應鏈和商店的效率，並使我們能夠更好地為客戶服務。重要的是，我們能夠降低每家商店的平均庫存，同時提高庫存率並推動更高的銷售成長。我們預計將在 2024 年繼續推動改進，目前已經進行了多項工作。

We have begun actively reducing the number of SKUs we carry in our stores through our planogram reset process, and we expect net reduction of up to 1,000 SKUs in our stores by the end of 2024. Notably, we have already turned off the majority of these SKUs, which will allow us to sell through the remaining inventory while seeking to minimize the amount of related clearance markdowns, which are contemplated in our 2024 guidance.

我們已開始透過貨架圖重置流程積極減少商店中的 SKU 數量，預計到 2024 年底，商店中的 SKU 淨減少量將達到 1,000 個。值得注意的是，我們已經關閉了其中的大部分SKU，這將使我們能夠銷售剩餘庫存，同時尋求最大限度地減少相關清倉降價量，這在我們的2024 年指導中有所考慮。

Finally, our merchant teams have focused on reducing activity for store teams by reducing the number of floor stands and monthly endcap resets and increasing the number of products that go straight to the shelf, all which saves time in our stores and enhances the customer experience.

最後，我們的商家團隊致力於透過減少落地支架數量和每月端蓋重置以及增加直接進入貨架的產品數量來減少商店團隊的活動，所有這些都節省了我們商店的時間並增強了客戶體驗。

As we wrap up this morning, I want to reiterate that we are laser-focused on getting back to the basics of Dollar General and fulfilling our mission of serving others. I'm proud of the team's efforts over the last few months to identify gaps and opportunities, implement plans of action and deliver on our commitments that we make.

在今天早上結束時，我想重申，我們專注於回歸 Dollar General 的基礎並履行我們為他人服務的使命。我為團隊在過去幾個月中為找出差距和機會、實施行動計劃並兌現我們所做的承諾所做的努力感到自豪。

We are moving with a sense of urgency and have made a lot of progress in a short amount of time. And while we are already seeing positive results from some of our actions, other efforts may take longer to deliver the intended benefit.

我們帶著緊迫感前進，並在短時間內取得了巨大進展。雖然我們已經看到一些行動取得了積極成果，但其他努力可能需要更長的時間才能實現預期效益。

With all that in mind, we are excited about the future of this business. We are working hard to capitalize on the opportunities in front of us to drive meaningful operational improvement in the near term and to deliver sustainable growth and value over the long term.

考慮到這一切，我們對這項業務的未來感到興奮。我們正在努力利用擺在我們面前的機會，在短期內推動有意義的營運改進，並在長期內實現永續成長和價值。

I want to thank our approximately 185,000 employees for their engagement and for their dedication to serving others every day. This team is energized and committed to our Back to Basics plan, and I'm excited about all that we can accomplish together in the year ahead.

我要感謝我們約 185,000 名員工的參與以及他們每天為他人服務的奉獻精神。這個團隊充滿活力並致力於我們的回歸基礎計劃，我對我們在未來一年能夠共同完成的一切感到興奮。

With that, operator, I'd now like to open the lines for questions.

接線員，現在我想打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

Congrats on the improvement. So Todd, I think it would be helpful if you could maybe speak to the top line and traffic self-help improvement that you're seeing, just given the volatile macro backdrop. So as you break down your 2024 comp guide, could you elaborate on the Back to Basics strategy? What's working today that supports the first quarter comp guidance relative to maybe incremental opportunity that you see potentially building throughout the year, particularly in the back half?

恭喜你的進步。托德，我認為，考慮到不穩定的宏觀背景，如果您能談談您所看到的收入和交通自助改善，那將會很有幫助。那麼，當您分解 2024 年薪酬指南時，您能否詳細說明一下「回歸基礎」策略？相對於您認為全年（尤其是下半年）可能建立的增量機會，今天有哪些工作可以支持第一季的業績指引？

Sure, Matt. Thanks for the question. We're pretty pleased with what we've seen in our short run here on getting back to the basics. You can see it in our comps in Q4, you can see it in our traffic numbers and we can see it in our customer data as well. So all good signs that we're on track to where we want to get to, to get back to the basics here at Dollar General.

當然，馬特。謝謝你的提問。我們對短期內回歸基本的情況感到非常滿意。您可以在我們第四季度的比較中看到它，您可以在我們的流量數據中看到它，我們也可以在我們的客戶資料中看到它。所有這些好跡像都表明我們正在朝著我們想要達到的目標前進，在 Dollar General 回歸基礎。

In saying that, you saw the comp guide for Q1 at 1.5% to 2%. Obviously, that is a more robust comp than we've seen here for a better part of the year. And I think that really goes to the -- to a couple of things. One is our commitment and -- as well as our confidence in the Back to Basics work that's being done. Let me just quickly recap a couple of those so that you all can have confidence as I do and the team does here on why we believe.

話雖如此，您看到第一季的比較指南為 1.5% 至 2%。顯然，這是一個比我們今年大部分時間在這裡看到的更強勁的比較。我認為這確實與幾件事有關。一是我們的承諾，以及我們對正在進行的回歸基礎工作的信心。讓我快速回顧其中的一些內容，讓大家能夠像我和團隊一樣對我們的信念充滿信心。

One is, we have done a lot of work in ensuring we've got the right amount of labor inside of our stores, $150 million in labor investments in 2023. I think most notably here as well is in Q4, the reallocation of that labor to areas that mean the most to our stores and to our customers. And so ensuring that we've got somebody at the front register to ring out 100% of the time, check, we're actually doing that, I believe, at a very high level now.

一是，我們做了很多工作來確保我們的商店擁有適量的勞動力，到 2023 年勞動力投資將達到 1.5 億美元。我認為最值得注意的是在第四季度，勞動力的重新分配到對我們的商店和客戶最重要的區域。因此，確保我們有一個人在前台登記處 100% 的時間敲響，檢查一下，我相信，我們現在實際上正在以非常高的水平做到這一點。

Second of all, ensuring that we put labor in to keep our on-hand and perpetual inventory counts more accurate. We, through Q4, have implemented that program, including extensive training to make sure that we feel confident long term that it will be sticky in our stores. And so I would tell you that our stores and our store employees have applauded that labor investment. And we're already starting to see some of the early benefits from that on the shelf, meaning more product on time and in the shelf. So really great to see.

其次，確保我們投入人力以維持現有庫存和永續庫存計數更加準確。我們在第四季度已經實施了該計劃，包括廣泛的培訓，以確保我們有信心該計劃能夠在我們的商店中長期保持黏性。所以我想告訴你，我們的商店和商店員工都對這種勞動力投資表示讚賞。我們已經開始看到貨架上的一些早期好處，這意味著更多的產品準時上架。很高興看到。

Also, another big reason on the self-help side, as you indicated, that we feel confident in is that we worked hard in Q4. We've gone back and peeled the onion completely back on transportation and DC accuracy, so in our whole supply chain and then put it back together, believe it or not, in Q4. What we've seen by doing that is that we've seen our on-time rates tick up greatly. Matter of fact, in the last 4 to 5 weeks, we've seen a very, very consistent level just shy of our goals. And last week, for the first time, we hit our goals on both our fresh distribution as well as our traditional DC distribution. So great to see.

此外，正如您所說，我們對自助充滿信心的另一個重要原因是我們在第四季度努力工作。無論你相信與否，我們已經在運輸和 DC 準確性方面完全回歸到洋蔥皮，然後在第四季度將其重新組合在一起，無論你相信與否。透過這樣做，我們看到我們的準時率大幅上升。事實上，在過去 4 到 5 週內，我們看到了一個非常非常穩定的水平，距離我們的目標只差一點。上週，我們首次實現了生鮮配送和傳統 DC 配送的目標。很高興看到。

And how that manifests itself at our store is any time we can be on time and more inflow in our stores, it gives our store the ability to be able to work what we call that 7-day workflow, which -- when they're able to do that, things run very, very smoothly inside of our stores. So more to come. While we're not 100% there, we are getting there on our transportation and our distribution pieces.

這在我們的商店中體現出來的是，任何時候我們都可以準時到達，並且更多的人流進入我們的商店，它使我們的商店能夠執行我們所說的 7 天工作流程，當他們如果能夠做到這一點，我們商店內的一切都會非常非常順利。未來還會有更多。雖然我們還沒有 100% 實現這一目標，但我們正在透過運輸和分銷手段實現這一目標。

And then the other pieces that really come into play here is in our merchandising areas. As you heard in our prepared remarks, we've already turned off 1,000 SKUs. We've got those turned off and already starting to burn down at store level. So we hope that we see our markdowns be somewhat limited there while we've got some markdowns, obviously, planned in 2024 to move through that product. This is really going to help the stores, 1,000 less SKUs that they have to deal with. And then at the same time, reducing the amount of floor stands coming up and other products that don't go right to the shelf. And by the way, it's going to be a substantial decrease. We -- the stores haven't seen that yet. That's coming in later in Q1 and into Q2. And by the way, it's over a 50% to 60% decrease over last year in those floor stands and those alternate items coming in. So again, a lot less work at the store.

然後真正發揮作用的其他部分是在我們的銷售領域。正如您在我們準備好的演講中所聽到的，我們已經關閉了 1,000 個 SKU。我們已經把這些關掉了，並且已經開始在商店層級燒毀。因此，我們希望看到我們的降價幅度有所限制，但顯然，我們計劃在 2024 年透過該產品進行一些降價。這確實對商店有幫助，他們需要處理的 SKU 減少了 1,000 個。同時，減少落地架和其他無法直接上架的產品的數量。順便說一句，這將大幅減少。我們——商店還沒有看到這一點。這將在第一季晚些時候和第二季度出現。順便說一句，落地架和替代商品的進貨量比去年減少了 50% 到 60% 以上。同樣，商店的工作量也減少了很多。

And then lastly, as it relates to, and I alluded to it in my prepared remarks, the rolltainer sort. We haven't done that since 2017. If you remember, back in 2017, when we did do that, it makes the putting of the product onto the shelf from the delivery 15% to 20% more -- does it faster. So we're able to execute it faster at store level. And what that does and how that manifests itself at store is, bottom line, is it gets product to the shelf faster. That increases sales, and it increases the productivity of our stockers inside that store.

最後，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，涉及捲式集裝箱。自2017 年以來，我們就沒有這樣做過。如果您還記得，早在2017 年，我們就這樣做了，這使得產品從交貨到上架的速度增加了15% 到20%，而且速度更快。因此我們能夠在商店級別更快地執行它。其作用以及在商店中的表現是，最重要的是，它可以更快地將產品送到貨架上。這會增加銷售額，並提高店內庫存人員的生產力。

So more to come there. That's why we feel so bullish about what we've got coming and what we've already done. So we've done this before, Matt. We know how to do it, and we're getting at it, as you could tell with a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of conviction here.

所以更多的人會來這裡。這就是為什麼我們對即將發生的事情和已經完成的事情感到如此樂觀。馬特，我們以前就這麼做過。我們知道如何做到這一點，而且我們正在努力做到這一點，正如您在這裡充滿熱情和堅定的信念所看到的那樣。

Our next question is from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

Todd, I wanted to ask you something that kind of puts together some of the comments you made as well as what Kelly said. I wanted to ask what's gone well since you joined, what's sort of taking longer. You mentioned some things need a little more attention. And as the construct of getting back to 7-plus margins, I think we talked about it theoretically by '25. Is that something that's still achievable? And listening to the finer points and some of what Kelly spoke about, like promotions being a little bit higher, it seems like shrink is about where you thought it would be. I don't know if you were trying to signal that it's a little worse that you're taking more action, but those type of puts and takes sort of what's gone well, what's not, and then something around the 7% in the future.

托德，我想問你一些問題，這些問題綜合了你的一些評論和凱利的言論。我想問一下，自從你加入以來，哪些方面進展順利，哪些方面需要更長的時間。您提到有些事情需要多加註意。至於回到 7 以上利潤率的構想，我想我們在 25 年之前就在理論上討論過它。這仍然是可以實現的嗎？聽聽凱利談到的一些細節和一些內容，例如晉升幅度更高一點，似乎收縮就是你想像的那樣。我不知道你是否試圖表明，如果你採取更多的行動，情況會更糟，但這種類型的看跌期權和看跌期權的類型是哪些進展順利，哪些進展不佳，然後是未來7% 左右的情況。

Yes, Simeon, thank you for the question. I'll start and then pass it over to Kelly for that second piece.

是的，西蒙，謝謝你的提問。我將開始，然後將第二部分交給凱利。

So what -- I've just covered a few of those what went well. But again, we feel good about those sales-driving activities and customer satisfaction activities that we've taken in our Back to Basics work. I believe that if you look at outside of shrink, and I'll get to that in a moment, here's how I would characterize where we are in getting back to the basics. I think this is a fundamental way to think about it.

那又怎樣——我剛剛介紹了其中一些進展順利的情況。但同樣，我們對我們在回歸基礎工作中採取的那些銷售驅動活動和客戶滿意度活動感到滿意。我相信，如果你看看收縮的外部，我稍後會談到這一點，這就是我將如何描述我們在回到基礎方面的情況。我認為這是思考這個問題的基本方法。

When we started this journey in middle October of last year, I'd say, unfortunately, we were about our own 10-yard line if you think about a football analogy. I'd say that as we exited Q4 and now entering Q1, we're just crossing the 35-yard line, our own 35-yard line. I feel that we are on the right track to cross over the 50-yard line as we move through Q1 and into Q2 and start to really look at how we drive further into '24 and into '25 and get into our own red zone, if you will.

當我們去年 10 月中旬開始這段旅程時，我想說，不幸的是，如果你用足球來比喻的話，我們就在我們自己的 10 碼線附近。我想說，當我們退出 Q4 現在進入 Q1 時，我們剛剛穿過 35 碼線，我們自己的 35 碼線。我覺得當我們穿過 Q1 並進入 Q2 時，我們正走在跨越 50 碼線的正確軌道上，並開始真正考慮如何進一步進入 24 世紀和 25 世紀並進入我們自己的紅色區域，如果你願意的話。

So that's how I'm looking at this. So some things are manifesting themselves and happening in real time very quickly at the store and through our customers' lens. Some will take a little longer. Now one of those things is shrink that's going to take a little longer. As you know, we take physical inventories once a year in our stores. So anything we started to do as of October of last year will take a year to manifest itself within the financials and, by the way, a little longer in some instances as things take hold, some quicker on the shrink side, some take a little longer.

這就是我的看法。因此，有些事情正在商店中透過客戶的鏡頭很快地顯現出來並即時發生。有些會需要更長的時間。現在其中之一就是收縮，這將需要更長的時間。如您所知，我們每年在商店進行一次實體盤點。因此，我們從去年10 月開始做的任何事情都需要一年的時間才能在財務中體現出來，順便說一句，在某些情況下，隨著事情的發展，需要更長的時間，有些在收縮方面更快，有些需要一點時間更長。

The great thing on the shrink side is that we know how to control this. We've done this before. Matter of fact, the individual that is in charge of operations now -- store operations, Steve Decker, Steve ran our shrink program for years here at Dollar General years ago and got it down to some of the lowest levels that -- historical lowest levels that we've seen in Dollar General pre-pandemic.

收縮方面的偉大之處在於我們知道如何控制它。我們以前已經這樣做過。事實上，現在負責運營的個人——商店運營，史蒂夫·德克爾（Steve Decker），史蒂夫幾年前在Dollar General 運行了我們的收縮計劃多年，並將其降至歷史最低水平。我們在大流行前的 Dollar General 中就看到了這一點。

We are squarely focused as we move through '25 and into '26 to get back to those pre-pandemic levels of shrink here at Dollar General. It's just going to take us a little time. But I'd tell you, when you look at what were -- the actions we're taking and, I would say, decisive actions, especially around self-checkout, taking self-checkout, if you will, the ability of self-checkout out of 9,000 of our stores immediately and turning them to assisted-check stands is really going to benefit us.

當我們進入 25 年和 26 年時，我們的重點是恢復到 Dollar General 疫情大流行前的收縮水平。這只是需要我們一點時間。但我想告訴你，當你看看我們正在採取的行動，我想說，果斷的行動，特別是在自助結帳方面，採取自助結帳，如果你願意的話，自助的能力立即對我們的9,000 家商店進行結帳，並將它們轉變為輔助結帳台，這確實會讓我們受益。

We spent a little bit of money in Q4, and we looked at an AI solution. We brought a team in. The team was called Everseen, and it's an AI solution that monitors thousands -- hundreds of thousands of our self-checkout transactions. And we were able to see through AI what has transpired over the course of many months of transaction data at self-checkout.

我們在第四季花了一點錢，研究了人工智慧解決方案。我們引入了一個團隊。該團隊名為 Everseen，它是一個人工智慧解決方案，可以監控數千甚至數十萬的自助結帳交易。我們能夠透過人工智慧看到自助結帳時的交易資料在數月的過程中發生了什麼。

And what we're able to see was how much shrink -- true shrink we've had, both purpose shrink, unfortunately, and inadvertent shrink by items not being scanned properly or thinking they scanned it and didn't. Long story here to say, we've made decisions based on that AI activity to pull out in 9,000 stores and go to that assisted-check stand. That should immediately do a lot for us. Putting somebody at the front end of the store, we did in October immediate -- will help our shrink.

我們能夠看到的是，我們已經有多少收縮——真正的收縮，不幸的是，既有目的收縮，也有由於物品沒有被正確掃描或認為他們掃描了但沒有掃描而導致的無意收縮。長話短說，我們已經根據人工智慧活動做出了決定，撤出 9,000 家商店並前往輔助檢查站。這應該立即對我們有很大幫助。我們在 10 月就立即在商店的前端安排了一些人，這將有助於我們縮小規模。

And then lastly, inventory control is going to help our shrink tremendously. I'm an own operator, going way back into the '80s as a System Manager, Store Manager, District Manager, VP of Operations. And I would tell you that any time you have too much inventory in the store, you've got too much shrink and damages. And damages, by the way, is just known shrink. And so more to come. I believe we're getting our arms around everything and feel very confident about where we're going.

最後，庫存控制將幫助我們大幅縮減規模。我是一名自己的營運商，可以追溯到 80 年代，擔任系統經理、商店經理、區域經理、營運副總裁。我會告訴你，只要商店裡有太多庫存，就會有太多的縮水和損壞。順便說一下，損害賠償只是已知的縮小。未來還會有更多。我相信我們正在全力以赴，並對我們的前進方向充滿信心。

And Kelly?

凱莉呢？

Yes. No, I think Todd told you all the reasons that we really believe that we're strengthening our foundation for long-term growth. And we really believe that this business is going to return to 10% to 10% plus EPS growth on an adjusted basis over the long term.

是的。不，我認為托德告訴了您我們真正相信我們正在加強長期成長基礎的所有原因。我們確實相信，從長遠來看，該業務將在調整後的基礎上恢復 10% 至 10% 以上的 EPS 成長。

As we move past some of the significant headwinds that Todd just talked about and getting back to all the mitigating actions that we're doing to combat those headwinds, we still have a lot of really good fundamentals in this business even with where we are and they're only going to get better. We're seeing momentum and growing share. We're growing traffic. We're starting to see healthy comps again, all the while, we've been generating a lot of cash flow. So this model is absolutely intact.

當我們克服托德剛才談到的一些重大阻力並回到我們為應對這些阻力而採取的所有緩解行動時，即使我們現在所處的位置和情況，我們在這項業務中仍然擁有許多非常好的基本面。他們只會變得更好。我們看到了勢頭和不斷增長的份額。我們正在增加流量。我們開始再次看到健康的業績，同時，我們一直在產生大量現金流。所以這個模型絕對完好無損。

And when we think about it, we've still got a long runway for growth. We think 700 and 900 stores are certainly still in our future. We've got a lot of remodel progress that we have on our plates as well. And that, as you know, contributes 150 to 200 basis points of comp contribution, so still really solid there. And we've got a lot of long-term drivers, some new, which Todd just talked about, making sure that we're reducing shrink. The inventory optimization gives us a lot of efficiencies, both in the store and in the distribution centers.

當我們思考這一點時，我們還有很長的成長道路。我們認為 700 家和 900 家商店肯定還在我們的未來。我們的改造工作也取得了許多進展。如您所知，這貢獻了 150 到 200 個基點的補償貢獻，因此仍然非常穩固。我們有很多長期驅動因素，其中一些是托德剛剛談到的新驅動因素，以確保我們減少損耗。庫存優化為我們提高了商店和配送中心的效率。

But then we have those long-term drivers that we've had in place for a while and continue to benefit of, the DG Media Network, private brands, the global sourcing, category management, all of those things that we've had for a while are certainly still in place. And with that, we expect to continue to generate cash and are looking forward to being able to return that cash back to shareholders, not only through the dividend, which we're doing now, but also through share repurchases over the long term.

但我們擁有那些已經存在了一段時間並繼續受益的長期驅動因素，DG 媒體網絡、自有品牌、全球採購、品類管理，以及我們所擁有的所有這些東西一段時間肯定還在原地。這樣，我們預計將繼續產生現金，並期待能夠將現金返還給股東，不僅透過我們現在正在做的股息，而且透過長期的股票回購。

So lots of reasons to believe back in that 10% to 10% EPS growth, and we feel good about the future.

因此，我們有許多理由相信每股盈餘將成長 10% 至 10%，我們對未來感覺良好。

Our next question is from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的約翰·海因博克爾。

Todd, I wonder if you can address the mini-market format, your thoughts on potential -- how many stores you think you could have if we're talking several thousands. And then remind us of the economics of that. I know it's relatively new. But when you think about whether it's sales per store, sales per foot, 4-wall margins, how that might look versus other formats that you use?

托德，我想知道您是否可以談論小型市場的形式，您對潛力的看法——如果我們談論的是幾千家，您認為您可以擁有多少家商店。然後提醒我們這背後的經濟學原理。我知道它相對較新。但是，當您考慮是否是每店銷售額、每英尺銷售額、4 牆利潤時，與您使用的其他格式相比，這會是什麼樣子？

Sure. Thanks for the question, John. And you and I have been talking about fresh and about these type of stores for quite a while. And I would tell you, when we put into place here years ago, our ability to grow cooler count, to grow fresh produce, the way we have over the years very methodically to be profitable at it as well as then enabling all of that and soon to be produced in the near future into self-distribution, I would tell you that we feel very good about that.

當然。謝謝你的提問，約翰。你和我已經談論生鮮和這類商店很長一段時間了。我想告訴你，當我們幾年前在這裡建立時，我們有能力種植冷卻器，種植新鮮農產品，多年來我們非常有條理地從中獲利，然後實現所有這些，很快就會在不久的將來製作並自行發行，我想告訴你，我們對此感覺非常好。

Then as you think about municipalities across this country that are in food deserts and/or looking for help in more fresh options, that mini market, as you indicated, our DG Market is really a lifesaver for those areas and a true lifeline for those areas where the grocery have left years ago, and we're there and can be there to help them.

然後，當您想到這個國家的各個城市都處於食物荒漠中和/或尋求更多新鮮選擇的幫助時，正如您所說，那個迷你市場，我們的DG 市場確實是這些地區的救星，也是這些地區真正的生命線雜貨店幾年前就已經離開的地方，我們就在那裡，可以幫助他們。

So we believe in that concept greatly. And as you look at the economics, and I'll pass it over to Kelly to add a little bit more color to it. But I would tell you that we like the sales economics there. We do like the 4-wall profitability that's thrown off by that. As we continue to look at balancing it, I would tell you there are thousands of opportunities for that box across the U.S.

所以我們非常相信這個概念。當你看到經濟學時，我會把它交給凱利，為它添加更多的色彩。但我想告訴你，我們喜歡那裡的銷售經濟學。我們確實喜歡由此帶來的四牆獲利能力。當我們繼續考慮平衡它時，我會告訴你，在美國各地，這個盒子有成千上萬的機會。

Kelly?

凱莉？

That's right now and I think Todd hit on most of it. We really like the IRR. They're certainly at the upper end of what we expect from new stores and a payback of less than 2 years. We like the top line and the flow-through on the operating margin, and the 4-wall is strong. So we think it hits all cylinders. It's great for the business, but as Todd alluded to, it's also great for our customer.

現在就是這樣，我想托德已經明白了其中的大部分內容。我們真的很喜歡 IRR。它們確實達到了我們對新店的預期上限，而且投資回收期不到兩年。我們喜歡營業利潤率上的營收和流量，四面牆很強勁。所以我們認為它會全力以赴。這對業務來說很棒，但正如托德所提到的，這對我們的客戶來說也很棒。

Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自魯佩什·帕里克和奧本海默。

So I have 2 related questions to gross margins. So Kelly, you commented on your expectation for the promotional backdrop to revert to pre-pandemic levels. Just curious if you're seeing any changes in the promotional backdrop today or whether that's just an expectation for the balance of the year. And then just on gross margins, we heard a lot about the headwinds. But just wanted any granularity in terms of whether you expect gross margins to be up or down as we think about '24.

我有兩個與毛利率相關的問題。凱利，您評論了您對促銷背景恢復到大流行前水平的期望。只是好奇您今天的促銷背景是否有任何變化，或者這是否只是對今年剩餘時間的預期。然後就毛利率而言，我們聽到了很多有關不利因素的消息。但只是想了解一下您預計毛利率會上升還是下降，正如我們對 24 年的看法一樣。

Rupesh, let me start, and I'll pass it over to Kelly. Yes, as we look out into 2024, we do believe that the promotional environment will have an uptick here. We believe that it will revert closer to where pre-pandemic levels were. In 2023, we saw an increase as well. So this isn't an immediate left- or right-hand turn here. This is what we had anticipated, quite frankly, over the last couple of years that as we enter '24, we would probably start to see this. And by the way, I think our CPG partners, and I'm sure you've seen, have signaled this for quite a while now in that they need to move units and through that, encourage, if you will, some of that promotional activity to occur.

魯佩什（Rupesh），讓我開始，然後我會把它交給凱利（Kelly）。是的，展望 2024 年，我們確實相信促銷環境將會有所改善。我們相信它將恢復到接近大流行前的水平。 2023 年，我們也看到了成長。所以這裡不是立即左轉或右轉。坦白說，這是我們在過去幾年中所預期的，當我們進入 24 世紀時，我們可能會開始看到這一點。順便說一句，我認為我們的CPG 合作夥伴，我相信您已經看到，已經發出信號很長一段時間了，因為他們需要移動單位，並通過這一點，鼓勵（如果你願意的話）進行一些促銷活動。發生的活動。

The great thing about Dollar General, we talked about the levels of markdown, but the great thing about Dollar General is that with our size and scale, we're able to get a tremendous amount of CPG help when it relates to this higher level of activity. And so our margins usually tend to be okay, if you will, as we move through these higher markdowns -- promotional markdowns. But what it also does right now, Rupesh, I believe, is it just gives that customer that's looking for more and more value right now. And by the way, this customer is getting healthier and healthier every day. We're seeing it. She's figuring out her expenses. I think you probably remember, I talked about this quite often. It takes her a few quarters to figure out when she gets a shock to the system. And unfortunately, this inflationary environment we've lived in for the last couple of years has been a shock and maybe even a double shock to her.

Dollar General 的偉大之處在於，我們討論了降價水平，但 Dollar General 的偉大之處在於，憑藉我們的規模和規模，當涉及到更高水平的折扣時，我們能夠獲得大量 CPG 幫助。活動。因此，如果你願意的話，當我們經歷這些更高的降價——促銷降價時，我們的利潤率通常會不錯。但我相信，Rupesh 現在它所做的就是為現在正在尋找越來越多價值的客戶提供服務。順便說一句，這位顧客每天都變得越來越健康。我們正在看到它。她正在計算她的開支。我想你可能還記得，我經常談到這一點。她花了幾個季度才弄清楚她什麼時候對系統感到震驚。不幸的是，過去幾年我們所處的通貨膨脹環境對她來說是一個衝擊，甚至可能是雙重衝擊。

But she's starting to figure it out. You can see it through the transaction data. You can see it on the unit side, and you can see it even on the mix side. She's starting to pick up a little bit more of that nonconsumable-type items, that discretionary item a little bit more each and every passing week that we see. So there's a lot of reason to believe that this markdown activity will actually help encourage her to get out and spend more at Dollar General at a time where she needs us most.

但她開始想明白了。透過交易數據就可以看到。您可以在單元側看到它，甚至在混合側也可以看到它。她開始購買更多的非消耗型物品，我們看到的每週都在增加一些可自由支配的物品。因此，我們有充分的理由相信，這種降價活動實際上將有助於鼓勵她在她最需要我們的時候走出去，在 Dollar General 花更多的錢。

Yes. And just to kind of give you a cadence just off of exactly what Todd was talking about, as we think about moving through the year, Q1 is certainly our (inaudible) from a sales perspective. But as Todd talked about on the markdown side of things, it's really -- it's a cadence thing more than just being impactful on gross margin overall for the year. And so last year, our markdown cadence, because it was more clearance related, was back half heavy. This year, because we're leaning into the promotional cadence, just getting back to more normal rates, you'll see that spread a little bit more evenly over the quarters.

是的。只是為了給你一個與托德所說的完全一致的節奏，當我們考慮這一年時，從銷售的角度來看，第一季肯定是我們的（聽不清楚）。但正如托德談到的降價方面，這實際上是一個節奏問題，而不僅僅是對今年整體毛利率的影響。所以去年，我們的降價節奏，因為它與清倉更多相關，又回來了一半。今年，因為我們傾向於促銷節奏，只是恢復到更正常的價格，所以您會發現各個季度的分佈更加均勻。

The other thing that we're looking at is just annualizing the retail labor hour investment. And so that's going to put some pressure on Q1. And then the -- we talked about shrink being 100 basis points or more above in -- year-over-year in Q4. And so with that exit rate, you're going to see some pressure in the front half of the year as well.

我們正在考慮的另一件事是將零售勞動時間投資年化。因此這會給第一季帶來一些壓力。然後，我們談到第四季的年減幅度為 100 個基點或以上。因此，隨著退出率的提高，今年上半年你也會看到一些壓力。

I think importantly, as we think about the cadence overall, the momentum of the actions that we are taking, we're certainly pleased with what we're seeing now, but that's going to continue to build. And we're going to see top line improve as we move through the quarter and a strong bottom line growth as we move into the back half of the year.

我認為重要的是，當我們考慮整體節奏、我們正在採取的行動的勢頭時，我們當然對我們現在所看到的感到滿意，但這種情況將繼續發展。當我們進入本季度時，我們將看到收入有所改善，而當我們進入今年下半年時，我們將看到收入的強勁增長。

If we think through just the components -- and back to your original question just on the gross margin piece, from a headwinds perspective, you've heard us talk a lot about shrink, but we do think with all of the actions that we're taking that we're going to be able to bend that trend as we move into the back half of the year and certainly start to see some benefits there. But really, as we move into 2025, we're going to see sales mix headwind probably all year as they make trade-off in the aisles, but as Todd alluded to, it's nice to see that we are starting to move that discretionary items as well.

如果我們只考慮各個組成部分 - 回到您最初關於毛利率的問題，從逆風的角度來看，您已經聽到我們談論了很多關於收縮的問題，但我們確實考慮了我們的所有行動我們認為，隨著進入今年下半年，我們將能夠扭轉這一趨勢，並且肯定會開始看到一些好處。但實際上，隨著我們進入2025 年，我們可能會看到全年的銷售組合逆風，因為他們在過道上進行權衡，但正如托德提到的，很高興看到我們開始轉移那些可自由支配的物品以及。

And then on the tailwind side, lots of work done in supply chain. You've heard us talk about the efficiencies there and just structural improvement on that. And the inventory reductions are going to help, again, with shrink, but also with damages. DG Media Network continues to grow. We continue to like what we see there as well as private brands. So those are kind of the components as we think about the margin.

然後在順風方面，供應鏈中完成了大量工作。您已經聽過我們談論那裡的效率以及結構改進。庫存的減少將再次有助於減少損失，但也會減少損失。 DG 媒體網絡持續發展。我們仍然喜歡在那裡看到的東西以及自有品牌。因此，這些都是我們考慮利潤時的組成部分。

And then just a couple of things on SG&A. Obviously, retail labor has played into our baseline that it's little bit Q1 impact there, just based off of the annualization. And then the incentive compensation will pressure us throughout all of the quarters, and we call that out as a $0.50 headwind that we're estimating for the current -- for the 2024 year. And then depreciation cost increases over the prior year. So those are really the puts and takes as we think about the flow and just the different components of both gross margin and SG&A.

然後是關於 SG&A 的一些事情。顯然，零售勞動力已經進入我們的基線，僅根據年化計算，它對第一季的影響很小。然後，激勵性薪酬將在所有季度給我們帶來壓力，我們將其稱為當前（2024 年）的 0.50 美元逆風。然後折舊成本比前一年增加。因此，當我們考慮流量以及毛利率和銷售管理費用的不同組成部分時，這些實際上是看跌選擇權和賣出選擇權。

Our next question comes from Kelly Bania with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Kelly Bania。

Just wanted to talk a little bit more about inventory. I think the total inventory was up and with the decline in discretionary inventory, I think it means that the consumable inventory might have been up maybe 19% or 20%. So I was wondering if you could just talk about that, if that's related to SKU changes. And just in general, when do you expect to get into a normalized inventory position really across both categories?

只是想多談談庫存問題。我認為總庫存增加了，隨著可自由支配庫存的下降，我認為這意味著消耗品庫存可能增加了 19% 或 20%。所以我想知道您是否可以談談這是否與 SKU 變化有關。總的來說，您預計什麼時候才能在這兩個類別中真正達到正常化的庫存狀況？

Yes. No, I think the teams have done a lot of nice work on inventory, and you're absolutely right on what you're thinking about as far as trajectory. I think that they've done a really good job here threading the needle. And so we're seeing both sides of that. We're seeing the nonconsumable side inventory drop on a per store basis. And to your point, we're seeing the consumables increase. But that's us getting improvements in our in-stock, which is helping to drive sales. So they're doing a good job of balancing both of those things.

是的。不，我認為團隊在庫存方面做了很多出色的工作，就軌跡而言，您的想法絕對正確。我認為他們在這方面做得非常好。所以我們看到了事情的兩面。我們看到每家商店的非消耗品庫存都在下降。就您而言，我們看到消耗品正在增加。但這是我們的庫存得到改善，這有助於推動銷售。所以他們在平衡這兩件事上做得很好。

As we move into 2024, inventory continues to be a high priority for us. We see opportunity to reduce our inventory on a per store basis as we move through. And then as you know, as we do that, the benefits just continue for us. It lowers our carrier costs, and it continues to drive efficiencies both in the stores and in the distribution centers. It takes pressure off of both shrink and damages. And frankly, with the improved in-stocks, that just positions us better to serve our customers.

進入 2024 年，庫存仍然是我們的首要任務。隨著我們的發展，我們看到了減少每家商店庫存的機會。如您所知，當我們這樣做時，我們將繼續受益。它降低了我們的承運成本，並繼續提高商店和配送中心的效率。它可以減輕收縮和損壞的壓力。坦白說，隨著庫存的增加，這使我們能夠更好地為客戶服務。

Our next question is from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題是查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特提出的。

I just want to circle back a little bit on Simeon's question, but just looking at it from the margin angle. It looks like operating margins this year are going to finish in the high 5%, low 6%, if we back out the incentive accrual. So when you look back to pre-COVID, you guys were running in that, call it, high 7%, mid-8% range. Just curious when you look ahead, now that the business is starting to stabilize, how quickly you think you could get back to those levels? And when you look at the P&L, what are the key ingredients to get you there?

我只是想稍微回顧一下西蒙的問題，但只是從邊緣角度來看它。如果我們取消應計激勵，今年的營業利潤率看起來將達到高 5%、低 6%。因此，當你回顧新冠疫情之前的情況時，你們會發現，你們的成長率是在 7% 高、8% 之間的範圍內。只是好奇當你展望未來時，既然業務開始穩定，你認為你能多快回到這些水平？當您查看損益表時，您會發現實現這一目標的關鍵因素是什麼？

Yes. Chuck, thanks for the question. And I would tell you, what we feel good about right now is getting back to the basics here. All the work that we're doing, as I indicated, we're probably just crossing over that 35-yard line. And so a lot of moving parts yet, but I think you could tell by my voice, and I can tell you, if you were here in this building, you could see the enthusiasm and in our stores of what is starting to really start to take hold. And that is getting back to the fundamentals that have made this company successful over the years.

是的。查克，謝謝你的提問。我想告訴你，我們現在感覺很好的是回到了基礎。正如我所指出的，我們正在做的所有工作可能只是跨越那條 35 碼線。還有很多活動部件，但我想你可以透過我的聲音看出，我可以告訴你，如果你在這棟大樓裡，你可以看到熱情，在我們的商店裡，什麼開始真正開始搦。這就是回到多年來使這家公司成功的基本面。

And a lot of it, the majority of it is not recreating the wheel, as I've said last quarter. It's taking tried and true items as well as processes and procedures and ensuring compliance. It's that simple in many instances.

正如我上個季度所說，其中很多，大部分都不是重複造輪子。它採用經過驗證的真實項目以及流程和程序並確保合規性。在很多情況下就是這麼簡單。

Now some of these, though, unfortunately, that had gone awry in the last 12 to 18 months. We really need to take some time to get those back in line. So those -- some of those are margin related and those components of, but as those start to heal, shrink being the largest one of those, I believe that we'll be in a really good position, as Kelly indicated, especially to start delivering on that EPS growth of 10% plus. And that is really some of the good health of the business that would start to show up.

但不幸的是，其中一些在過去 12 到 18 個月內出現了問題。我們確實需要花一些時間讓這些人恢復正常。因此，其中一些與利潤相關，但隨著這些因素開始癒合，縮小成為其中最大的一個，我相信我們將處於一個非常好的位置，正如凱利所指出的那樣，特別是在開始時實現EPS 增長10 % 以上。這確實是業務健康狀況即將開始顯現的一部分。

I feel good about that long-term algorithm. I feel good about this business as good as I ever felt. And quite frankly, I believe we have more drivers at our disposal today on driving that top line than we've ever had in the past, especially around the fresh network that we've got, the fresh food as well as all the work that we've done on NCI over the years and nonconsumables. That is just waiting for the customer to come back in. And as I indicated earlier, we're starting to see glimmers of her starting to come back in to that discretionary side. And we stand ready, willing, able with inventory, fresh inventory to get that done. So stay tuned. You know me, we're not going to stand still. We're going to push hard and get this thing moving as fast as we can, and we're off to a great start already here.

我對這個長期演算法感覺很好。我對這項業務的感覺一如既往的好。坦白說，我相信今天我們有比過去更多的司機來駕駛這條頂線，特別是在我們擁有的生鮮網絡、生鮮食品以及所有工作方面。多年來我們在NCI 和非消耗品方面做了很多工作。這只是在等待顧客回來。正如我之前指出的，我們開始看到她開始回到自由裁量的一面。我們隨時準備好、願意、有能力利用庫存、新鮮庫存來完成這項任務。所以請繼續關注。你了解我，我們不會停滯不前。我們將努力推動並盡可能快地推進這件事，我們已經有了一個好的開始。

Our final question is from Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自傑弗里斯的科里·塔洛（Corey Tarlowe）。

Great. You've seen now positive traffic for 2 quarters in a row, I believe. I was curious to get your thoughts. And within your outlook, what's embedded for traffic and ticket within your guide? And then if you could also maybe just touch on what you're expecting ahead from a wage standpoint and what's embedded in your guide as well there?

偉大的。我相信，您現在已經連續兩個季度看到了積極的流量。我很想知道你的想法。在您的展望中，您的指南中嵌入了哪些交通和票務資訊？然後，您是否也可以從工資的角度談談您對未來的期望以及您的指南中包含的內容？

Yes, sure. I'll start and pass it over to Kelly. Yes, the very back half of Q3, we started to see some good glimmers of positive traffic. And then as we move through Q4, we saw that sequentially increase. And not that we're giving Q1 guidance, but that's continued into Q1. And so we feel very good about what we're seeing on that traffic side. And we believe, again, by all these actions we're taking on getting back to the basics should manifest itself in a strong traffic growth as we continue to move into the quarters ahead. And that's why the comp guidance that we gave is so important because we believe that we can see that positive traffic.

是的，當然。我將開始並將其傳遞給凱利。是的，第三季後半段，我們開始看到一些正面的流量跡象。然後，當我們進入第四季度時，我們看到這一數字連續增加。我們並不是提供第一季的指導，而是一直延續到第一季。因此，我們對交通方面所看到的情況感到非常滿意。我們再次相信，隨著我們繼續進入未來幾個季度，我們為回歸基礎而採取的所有這些行動應該會體現在流量的強勁增長中。這就是為什麼我們給出的補償指南如此重要，因為我們相信我們可以看到積極的流量。

Not only that, but all the work that we're doing to get back to basics here, get in stock not only helps that traffic. But what we're starting to see is -- and gives us confidence is that for the first time in many quarters, we're starting to see the trade down come back in. And we hadn't seen that for a few quarters. And quite frankly, it's been across every cohort, a customer that we track. So not only that higher income, all the way down to the lower income, we're seeing share gains. So great to see that. That means the work that we're doing is resonating and should also mean and manifest itself into long-term growth on that top line.

不僅如此，我們為回歸基礎所做的所有工作，獲得庫存不僅有助於增加流量。但我們開始看到的是——並且給我們信心的是，在許多季度以來，我們第一次開始看到交易下降。而我們已經有幾季沒有看到這種情況了。坦白說，它存在於我們追蹤的每個群體、每個客戶中。因此，不僅是較高的收入，一直到較低的收入，我們都看到了股票收益。很高興看到這一點。這意味著我們正在做的工作正在引起共鳴，也應該意味著並體現在營收的長期成長中。

Absolutely right. And then on the wage side of things, I'll tell you, we feel really good about our wages. We've increased wages almost 30% since 2019 and feel we're in a good position there. We're not seeing a lot of stress on the wage front. So a more normalized annual wage growth is what we're expecting. And then with all of the investments that we've made in the labor hours, we feel like we are well positioned on that front in 2024. And all of that's considered in the guidance that we gave. So feel good about that as well.

絕對正確。然後在薪水方面，我告訴你，我們對自己的薪水感覺非常好。自 2019 年以來，我們的薪資成長了近 30%，我們感覺自己處於有利地位。我們沒有看到薪資方面有太大壓力。因此，我們預期年度薪資成長更加正常化。然後，透過我們在勞動時間內進行的所有投資，我們覺得到 2024 年我們在這方面處於有利地位。所有這些都在我們提供的指導中被考慮。所以對此也感覺良好。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。