達樂 (DG) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Dollar General Corporation's first-quarter 2013 earnings conference call on Tuesday, June 4, 2013 at 9 AM Central Time.

Thank you for participating in today's conference which is being recorded by Conference America.

No other recordings or rebroadcasts of this session are allowed without the Company's permission.

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference call over to Ms. Mary Winn Gordon, Dollar General's Vice President of Investor Relations and Public Relations.

You may begin.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone.

On the call today are Rick Dreiling, our Chairman and CEO; and David Tehle, our CFO.

We will first go through our prepared remarks, and then we will open up the call for questions.

Our earnings release can be found on our website at dollargeneral.com under investor information press releases.

Let me caution you that today's comments will include forward-looking statements about our expectations, plans, objectives, anticipated financial and operating results and other non-historical matters.

Some examples of forward-looking statements discussed in this call include our 2013 forecasted financial results and anticipated capital expenditures, our planned operating and merchandising initiatives for fiscal 2013, expected ongoing share repurchases and future consumer economic trends.

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in our forward-looking statements are included in our earnings release issued this morning, our 2012 10-K which was filed on March 25, our first-quarter 10-Q which was filed this morning, and in the comments that are made on this call.

We encourage you to read these.

You should not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date.

Dollar General disclaims any obligation to update or revise any information discussed in this call.

We will also reference certain financial measures not derived in accordance with GAAP.

Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in this morning's earnings release, which I mentioned is posted on dollargeneral.com.

This information is not a substitute for any GAAP measures, and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies.

Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Rick.

Thank you, Mary Winn.

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today.

As we shared with you at the time of our fourth quarter conference call, we expected the first-quarter of 2013 to be our most difficult quarter given the well-publicized tough weather comps, payroll tax increases and sales headwinds from the tax refund delays.

With the first-quarter behind us, we have updated our outlook to reflect a revised sales estimate and gross margin compression.

The continued mix shift within consumables to lower margin items, without the benefit of sales of higher margin non-consumables and higher inventory shrink are the key drivers of our gross margin performance.

This revised view of sales and gross margin has tempered the high end of our earnings outlook.

I still believe our sales ramp will come later in the year, as we look forward to same-store sales growth of 4% to 5% for 2013, and we continue to have long-term opportunities for growth.

David will provide more details on our financial results in a moment, but I wanted to share just a few highlights from the quarter.

Our total sales increased 8.5% over last year to a record $4.2 billion.

Same-store sales grew 2.6%, with both traffic and average ticket increasing for the 21st consecutive quarter.

To characterize the shape of the quarter, it was a U-shape with February and the back half of April sales much stronger than March, as we felt the most significant weather impact, and we were lapping a double-digit comp increase in that month.

Adjusted operating profit increased 3% to $396 million or 9.4% of sales, and adjusted net income increased 8% to $232 million.

Adjusted EPS increased 13% to $0.71 per share.

For the quarter, sales growth was healthy across our consumable categories.

It is my belief that the best way to judge the health of the retailer for this quarter is based on the strength of its core business.

For us, that would be our consumable business, and we delivered a strong same-store sales improvement in this category.

However, our non-consumable or discretionary categories were soft during the quarter, as sales of seasonal merchandise and apparel were impacted by the weather.

Given the positive trends we experienced in non-consumables in 2012, it is noteworthy that every non-consumable category had a negative comp in the first-quarter.

Even so, we are pleased with the sell-through of our holiday seasonal merchandise including Valentine's Day and Easter.

While we expected spring and summer seasonal sales to be soft given the cooler weather patterns over the quarter, compared to a near perfect weather in the prior year, we had expected total discretionary sales to recover more significantly than they did in April, and quite honestly at a faster pace.

Although our consumable categories did pick up nicely in April, we did not see a similar recovery in our discretionary categories.

Like other retail CEOs you have heard from this quarter, I don't like to talk about the weather, but the impact on our business, however, we believe it was a factor in our discretionary business.

Overall, when the weather improved across the region, we saw a positive impact with improved sales.

For example, it has been easier to be a district manager in Texas or Florida where we have had better weather, as compared to the Northeast and the Midwest where the weather has not been in our favor.

I will talk more about our operating initiatives in a moment.

But now I would like to turn the call over to David.

Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone.

Rick covered the highlights of our first-quarter sales performance, so I will start with gross profit.

Gross profit dollars increased 5% for the quarter, with an 89 basis point decrease in gross profit rate to 30.6% of sales.

This decrease was driven by higher markdowns, higher consumable mix, and increased inventory shrink and lower initial markups.

You will recall that we had forecasted a gross margin decline, and called it out on our last earnings call.

While our total shrink units per store continued to decrease, our financial shrink increased due to the increased loss of SKUs greater than $5 at retail.

While these high value items are generating greater shrink, they are also driving increased sales and higher margin dollars.

We are now forecasting that this negative shrink trend will not turn around in 2013.

These negative margin impacts were partially offset by a benefit from transportation efficiencies, driven by lower stem miles and modestly lower fuel rates.

SG&A expense was 21.3% of sales in the 2013 period, compared to 21.6% in the 2012 period, an improvement of 37 basis points.

Decreases in incentive compensation, workers' compensation and general liability expenses contributed to the overall decrease in SG&A as a percentage of sales.

We were also able to leverage our retail labor expense, partially due to ongoing benefits from our workforce management system and other operating efficiencies.

Our mining for cost reduction program also contributed to the overall decrease in SG&A as a percentage of sales.

Costs that increased at a higher rate than our increase in sales include rent expense, advertising costs, depreciation and amortization and utilities expense.

The team did a nice job leveraging SG&A on a sales comp of 2.6%, which is better than our goal of leveraging SG&A on a 3% to 3.5% comp increase.

As of May 3, total inventories were $2.41 billion, up about 14% on a per store basis.

This rate of growth should moderate as we move through the year.

Our inventory turns were 5 times.

Quality and aging of our inventory continues to be in good shape.

Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $150 million, including $30 million related to new leased stores, $25 million for stores we purchased or built, $74 million for upgrades, remodels and relocations of existing stores, $14 million for distribution and transportation, and $6 million for information system upgrades.

During the quarter, we opened 165 new stores and relocated or remodeled 207 stores.

At the end of the quarter, we had outstanding long-term obligations of $2.84 billion, essentially in line with the prior year.

We continue to improve our capital structure to ensure long-term flexibility, ample liquidity and enhanced financial performance.

In March, Moody's upgraded our senior unsecured credit rating to Baa3.

This upgrade completed our transition to investment grade as our S&P corporate rating was already BBB minus.

During the quarter, we successfully issued $1.3 billion of senior unsecured notes, consisting of $400 million of 5-year notes at an interest rate of 1.875%, and $900 million of 10-year notes at an interest rate of 3.25%.

We concurrently entered into a new five-year senior unsecured credit facility which includes a $1 billion term loan and an $850 million revolver.

Proceeds from the offerings, together with the term loan borrowings under the new credit facilities were used to repay the senior secured credit facility.

This successful refinancing allowed us to extend our average debt maturity, and move to an unsecured debt structure at very attractive borrowing rates.

Now to guidance.

Based on our first-quarter results and our outlook for the balance of the year, we now expect total sales for the year to increase 10% to 11%.

Same-store sales are expected to increase 4% to 5%.

We are forecasting gross margin contraction for the full year to be in line with the first-quarter, due to the continued mix shift within consumables to lower margin items, higher inventory shrink, and softer sales in non-consumables.

As you model gross margin, please keep in mind, we had our best performance on gross margin in fourth quarter of 2012.

This will be our most challenging quarterly overlap on gross margin for the year as you look at the quarterly spread.

Operating profit for 2013 is expected to be in the range of $1.73 billion to $1.77 billion.

Given our successful refinancing, during the quarter we now expect interest expense to be in the range of $95 million to $100 million.

Adjusted earnings per share for the year is now forecast to be $3.15 to $3.22, based on about 326 million weighted average diluted shares.

This share count assumes about $500 million for total share repurchases.

For the second quarter, please keep in mind that we will be lapping a $0.04 per share impact from a discrete tax item from last year that we do not expect to re-occur this year.

The full year 2013 effective tax rate is expected to be about 38%.

For the year we plan to open approximately 635 new stores, and to remodel, relocate a total of approximately 550 stores.

Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $575 million to $625 million.

It is still very early in the year, and the outlook for the rest of the year is very hard to call.

The new guidance reflects our best estimates, given what we know today.

Looking at the balance of the year, I believe we have clear operating priorities in place to help us deliver on our goals.

With that, I will turn the call back over to Rick.

Thank you, David.

The first-quarter was an extremely busy and productive one at Dollar General.

I will give you a few examples of the tremendous work that has been accomplished in just one quarter.

First, store growth.

Through the first-quarter, we opened 165 stores, including 10 Dollar General Markets and 8 Dollar General Plus formats.

Compared to the past couple of years our store pipeline is very robust, and we are ahead of where we were at this time last year for both new stores opened and store weeks.

Our new stores are continuing to deliver strong performance that is exceeding our plans.

In addition, we remodeled or relocated 207 stores in the quarter, including 44 Dollar General Plus stores.

The DG Plus format is a great tool for relocations, and we were driving higher baskets given the expanded perishable assortment in those stores.

At the end of the first-quarter we had 10,662 stores in 40 states, well on our way to our next milestone of 11,000 stores.

Turning to store operations, we made great progress in implementing Phase 5, our initiative aimed at optimizing shelf space in 3,000 legacy stores that had not been remodeled to our customer-centric format.

For the quarter, we completed the fixturing and reconfiguration of 2,800 of the 3,000 stores in this legacy group.

While it is early, we are pleased with the comp sales lift of about 100 basis points we are seeing, as our customers realize we have expanded our product assortment.

Additionally, across the rest of the store base, the implementation of new planograms increased over 30% year over year, as we advanced the timing of our planogram changes into the first-quarter of this year to better align with our category management plans and new product introductions.

Specifically, we made over 600,000 planogram changes across our store base in the first-quarter.

All in all, this is substantial work at the store level that should provide a real benefit going forward.

We are very pleased with the results of our cooler expansions for perishable items.

Most of our new stores are being built with 16 cooler doors, and we plan to increase the number of coolers in approximately 1,700 existing stores.

In the first-quarter alone, we installed about 6,300 cooler doors in over 1,400 of those stores, or about 80% of our target.

We are also making progress on installing defensive merchandising fixtures to help re-establish our trend of shrink improvement.

In hindsight, over the last year or so we introduced some new products with a higher dollar value per unit and did not implement the associated defensive fixturing or labeling that we now realize is necessary in select stores.

During the quarter, we accelerated the installation of the fixtures, installing them in over 2,600 stores.

We also completed additional shrink training workshops for all of our field management.

At the store level, the most significant initiative implemented has been our aggressive roll-out of tobacco products.

We are on track to have tobacco rolled out to essentially all of our stores before the end of the second quarter.

As of today, we have tobacco in about 10,000 stores, which is quite an achievement when you consider the amount of work involved.

For each and every store location, we have to get a license, develop a planogram, source fixturing for the product, schedule and complete the installation of the fixture, ship inventory, set the planogram, and train the employees.

In addition, we have reconfigured the front end of the store to facilitate the sale of tobacco, including the addition of more impulse items.

Much like raising of the shelf height profile to 78 inches, this effort has been a great example of success -- successful cross-functional execution at Dollar General.

We continue to gain insight into the tobacco category, and how we think it will contribute to traffic and sales over time.

So far as we look at tobacco purchases we are seeing about one-third with tobacco only, and the remaining two-thirds are tobacco plus one or more item.

The average basket with tobacco and additional items is currently above $17, and our sales and traffic are building each week along with our customer awareness.

Based on our experience, we expect that the percentage of baskets with tobacco will continue to ramp up over the next several months.

In summary, we accomplished much in the quarter that we believe should pay dividends as the year progresses.

While it is still early, the second quarter is off to a solid start, and we are beginning to see a slight improvement in our non-consumable sales.

However, the current expected growth rate for total comps and gross margin performance for the year is not where we had projected it when we last spoke.

As a result, we have moderated our outlook for the year.

It is definitely clear that as we look at our business, our customers dependence on Dollar General's everyday low pricing on basic items, and our convenient format has never been greater.

We are focused on meeting those needs, as our customers continue to manage their way through the ongoing financial pressures they face, as they always do and they always have done.

At the same time, we are continually improving our operations across the board, and believe we have a long runway for continued success.

Before I open it up for questions, I want to thank over 95,000 Dollar General employees for the hard work that was completed in the first-quarter.

My sincerest thanks go out to all Dollar General employees for their extra, extra efforts in this quarter.

Now we will open up for questions, Mary Winn?

Okay.

Operator, we will take our first question, please.

Thank you very much.

Ladies and gentlemen, our first question will come from Meredith Adler, Barclays.

Good morning, Meredith.

Good morning, Rick.

Thank you very much for taking my question.

I would like to focus on the gross margin.

I think that is probably everybody's concern.

And I understand what you have said, but you are -- seem to be making an assumption that the rest of the year stays very similar to the first-quarter.

And maybe you could just talk more about what you believe is in the consumer's mind?

If weather gets better, why wouldn't we see discretionary sales start to pick up?

So maybe just talk you through -- and then a little bit more about shrink, and how quickly can you make improvements?

Yes, fair question, Meredith.

What I am looking at right now is literally where we stand today, having looked back on the quarter, and thinking about how things are going.

We have said for a period of time that the non-consumables side of the business is going to need just a little bit of help from the economy, I believe.

We made some solid progress in 2012.

But as I look across 2000 -- the first-quarter of 2013, when we came out of that trough in March, I had anticipated that the non-consumables side would accelerate at a faster pace as we moved through April, and we didn't see that.

Albeit, we are seeing it improve as we are moving through May and June, but still not at the rate that I thought it would at this stage of the game.

The other thing -- I am going to talk a little bit on the margin side, why there is still opportunities in warehouse and transportation and category management and sourcing.

I am going to talk a little about what I think has happened in our quest to be a little more relevant to the customer out there.

As we moved through the back part of last year and into the first part of this year, we began to expand our SKU base to include more and more national brand items.

And those national brand items historically carry a little bit lower margin than our private brands.

And we began to give the customer more alternatives to our private brand offering.

We historically have been about good and best, or good and better, when you look at our product assortment.

And now we are a little bit more good, better and best, having given more alternatives to the consumer.

Let me give you a perfect example here.

Six months ago, we carried the private brand version of Claritin in a 12-count, a 24-count and a 36-count, and we only carried Claritin in the 24.

So if you wanted less than 24, you bought our private brands, and if you wanted more, you bought our private brand.

Now we have, the customer has their option across all six SKUs.

And we have inadvertently in our zest to be a little more relevant, allowed the customer to be able to trade down on the margin on the -- in the consumable side of the business.

I think the other thing in our quest to be a little more relevant, we have added more high value SKUs.

And while they are selling, they are putting a little more pressure on the shrink side of the ledger.

And that is this idea, that while units are down, our shrink is up.

So I think that we have made a lot of progress.

I think as I look at the margin and we move through the year, we are going to continue to tweak that.

And I think it is going to take us a couple three quarters to get -- to make that rebound.

Okay.

And then maybe is there any reason that as we think about the discretionary part of the business, do you need to cut any orders?

Have you done that?

Yes, we have actually, much like a lot of the other major retailers out there, we have been looking down the road on this for six or seven months, and our inventory on the non-consumable side is very healthy.

It is not like we have an issue there as well, that is going to sneak up on us.

Okay.

That's good to hear.

And the promotional environment, is that contributing in any way?

Another very fair question.

I think the competitive environment like the last quarter is relatively stable.

I think very much like the last quarter, I think share of voice, people are competing for, there is more radio out there, more TV out there, more pages and ads.

But the pricing in all of those vehicles is very rational right now.

Great.

I just have one more question.

Sure.

You got obviously aggressive square footage growth plans.

Given everything you are seeing, is there any reason to believe that the ROIC on new stores over more than a couple month period, the long-term ROIC is changing at all?

We are as excited about the returns on our new stores, the speed at which they ramp up, Meredith, as I was five years ago when I first talked to you about it.

Super.

Thank you very much.

Sure.

Thank you.

All right.

Operator, we will go to the next question, please.

Thank you.

(Operator Instructions)

Our next question will come from Deborah Weinswig, Citigroup.

Thank you.

Good morning, Deb.

Good morning.

Rick, is there any reason to think that you are at peak margins?

I think that we still have lots of room in lots of different areas.

David, I think as we tweak what is going on in the stores in terms of the SKU base, I think that is opportunity.

David, I think in terms of private brands and --

If you look at category management, sourcing, private brands, distribution, transportation, and now ironically we have even a bigger opportunity in shrink, because it has gone a little bit the wrong way.

So I think short-term clearly as we look at 2013, we don't see ourselves going up in margin, and we put that into our guidance.

But as we look out over the next five years, absolutely, we still believe there is opportunity to expand our operating margin.

I do think, Deb, that the low hanging fruit is gone.

I think as we move through the next few years, we are going to have to be a little more thoughtful, a little more precise in how we get it.

But I think the opportunities are still there.

And then do you think that there is anything structural here either with the Company, the consumer or the competition?

I think the competitive environment is very stable.

Like I said, it is not like we are picking up, coming to work one day, and someone has got a great big ad.

I think there is more pages, more radio, as people are trying to make sure the consumer is there.

In terms of the macro environment, I think the pressure that exists on customers is universe across all of retailing.

I think there is -- we talk about there is a lot more people who have an income under $50,000 a year than those who have an income over $100,000.

And I think the environment, while the governmental regulation, there is not as much noise as there was a couple quarters ago.

And I actually feel better about the environment that our customer is in.

We went through the Memorial Day weekend without a big spike in gasoline prices.

I think that is a very positive thing for us.

And I think structurally, in terms of the business, I tell you I feel as good about Dollar General today, as I felt in a long time.

We got a lot of work done in the first-quarter.

And I mean it is fair to say, that maybe we might even have bit off a little more than we could have -- should have chewed in the first-quarter.

But we are, as my chief merchant is fond of saying, our guns are loaded, and we are looking really, really hard at two, three and four.

Okay.

And then, maybe a question you can answer, and maybe you can't, but can you talk about what trends are like now?

Our -- where we stand as of this morning is smack dab middle of the range that we have given you, the guidance range.

Great.

Well, thanks so much, and best of luck.

Thank you.

All right.

Operator, we will move on to the next question.

Thank you.

Next question, Paul Trussell, Deutsche Bank.

Hi, good morning, Paul.

Paul, are you there?

Sorry, can you hear me now?

Yes, we can hear you.

Hi, Paul, how you doing?

Great.

Good morning.

So within, Rick, within your guidance, has the sales contribution or margin impact from tobacco changed at all from a few months ago?

And can you just speak to how satisfied you are with what you are seeing to date?

Paul, that is a very fair question.

It is too soon yet.

While I have got the cigarettes installed in 10,000 stores, we haven't really reached the stage of the game where I am selling them there yet.

I will give you some update on where we are on the margin on cigarettes, as we get through the next quarter -- the next quarterly call.

But right now, there is no reason to think that there is anything out of the ordinary.

Okay.

Understood.

And then when it comes to apparel and home, is your customer simply not purchasing those goods today, because their wallets are tight?

Or do you think that the customer has perhaps gone to purchase those goods elsewhere because of the assortment that you have within your stores?

Or just not wanting to shop your channel anymore for those goods, given that you are the destination for consumables?

That is a very fair question.

My view on it would be is their wallet tight.

I think that -- when I look at our home, or I look at our apparel, I think it is fair to say we have incredibly good days.

And you will have it for two or three days, and then it will swing the other way.

And I think what is going on is our consumer is finally realizing that the work that we have done on home and apparel, that we are giving them a pretty quality product at a fabulous everyday low price.

And I have said for a period of time, we are going to have to sell them that that's good quality stuff and it has taken a little bit longer than we thought.

And I think if you couple that, if we could get a little help from the economy, and I think we could get that business performing at a little bit better level.

I will say this, Paul, and I have said this for a long period of time, and people get tired of hearing about it.

We need to keep that side of the ledger.

We like that side of the ledger.

Obviously, there will be tweaks to it down the road, but we really like the non-consumable business, and we think we need it overall for the margin.

So is there -- just to follow up on that comment.

Is there any change at all to how you are thinking about space allocation in new stores or remodels, when it comes to home and apparel?

Or do you feel like the current space allocated is appropriate?

Our new stores are actually -- we are still pretty bullish of on the home side, but our new stores are rolling out with an adjustment to the commitment in apparel.

That is correct.

And we have done that through all of 2012 and into '13.

That is an adjustment down?

Correct, yes.

And then just with that comment though, if you are adjusting the allocation of discretionary goods down, wouldn't that perhaps signal continued unfavorable mix shift?

Actually, number one, we don't want to confuse adjusting apparel with adjusting all of non-consumables.

The apparel -- particularly when I talk apparel, I am talking about hanging apparel.

We have a solid undergarment business, a solid sock business.

And I think as you look at it, what we are working on, is not adjusting the sales down, but doing a better job of managing our sell-through.

That is what we are trying to do is maximize the margin out of those items.

And Paul, that business that Rick is talking about is only about 2% of our total, when he talks about hanging apparel.

So just keep that in mind.

And in the interest of time, and getting to everybody else in the queue, let's move on.

Operator, if we may?

Thank you.

Our next question will come from John Heinbockel, Guggenheim Securities.

Good morning, John.

Good morning, Rick.

So when you look at the shrink over $5, is that more discretionary or is that HVA OTC or other consumables?

I would call it discretionary inside the HVA category.

Okay.

So think in terms of a high dollar eyeliner.

So there should be, in putting in place fixturing to curtail that, is there a plan to do that?

I would think that is something that could be done quick -- relatively quickly.

Yes, as I have said, we have already got 2,600 stores installed.

Yes.

And you install them, and then you have to go through the shrink cycle to see what happens.

And I am very pleased with the progress we have made on that particular effort.

So when you think about shrink opportunity, do you think it is more than 50 bps or not that much?

I would rather not get into that.

I will tell you this.

As hard as we are working on shrink, the number is still better than it was in 2007 when we started our initiative.

So there is certain -- but I will say, there is room for improvement.

And then, two last things.

With tobacco, are you -- as I recall, there is not a lot of incremental labor added as you put that into store, is that right?

That is correct.

Okay.

And then secondly, do you think discretionary, you talked about improvement, do you think discretionary could be or should be positive for the second quarter, or would improve that much?

I don't want to really get into that, but I will tell you it is improving.

All right?

And again, you have got to remember, I am not -- I don't want to -- all I can look at is where I am today, and like I said, it is improving.

Right.

You would think there is pent-up demand here, as weather gets better in the Northern part of the country, right?

That there would be a four or five week period where people would buy all of their spring stuff all at once?

Absolutely.

And that is yet to come, we haven't seen that yet?

That is correct.

All right.

Thank you.

Operator, we will move on to the next question.

Next question, David Mann, Johnson Rice.

Good morning, David.

Good morning.

Thank you, Rick.

When you look at your performance of discretionary in some of those markets like Florida and Texas, can you just give us a sense on how it performed -- in the different markets?

Yes.

I would tell you that the warmer markets that haven't been impacted by the weather, our discretionary sales, particularly spring and summer, are just fine.

Okay.

Great.

And then for David Tehle, would you -- when we are looking at the -- your SG&A assumptions that are implicit within guidance, are they a little bit tighter than what you gave us a couple months ago?

And if so, what is going on there?

No, I think we are pretty close to what we had talked about before.

We always saw ourselves in our guidance leveraging SG&A to the prior year.

I will say in first-quarter, and we were very impressed with that 37 basis points on a 2.6% comp, as that was beyond -- generally, we guide to a 3% to 3.5% comp.

And we definitely have leverage planned in our guidance on SG&A for the back half of the year.

But again, I don't think there is anything too unusual about it.

Thank you.

Okay, operator, we will move on to the next question.

Our next question will come from Colin McGranahan, Bernstein.

Good morning, Colin.

Good morning.

I wanted to go back and focus on gross margin for a second.

First, I think this is the first time that we have kind of maybe gotten a little more understanding of what you are doing with the assortment toward national brands.

How do you rectify that problem?

Are you going to be taking SKUs out or adding additional private label SKUs to try and get the mix shifting back a little bit?

Yes, I actually think the answer to that is yes to both.

We are going to further expand our private brand presence again this year, as we had in the past.

Colin, to be honest with you, we are going to rationalize some of the SKUs that we have put in.

And the merchants have a plan to sell it down versus -- it is good merchandise here.

And we feel that we can adjust that assortment and tighten it up as we move through the fourth quarter.

And how do you think that impacts the relevance?

Obviously, at the time the strategy that you added was a sales relevant strategy.

So as you start -- I don't want to use unwind, but as you kind of self-correct a little bit here, how does that impact your outlook for relevance and comp sales?

That is a very fair question.

I do prefer the word adjust, versus even unwind.

(Laughter).

Fair enough.

Okay?

Just adjust it.

Got to remember what we are talking about here is not eliminating the brands, eliminating sizes that give the customer a choice.

So you are still going to be relevant, in that you are going to have the national brands.

We just don't want to offer as many alternatives in terms of size.

That is all.

Okay.

That's fair.

And then, just trying to get my head around the rest of the year being gross margins down 80, 90 basis points.

Can you give us any rank ordering or quantification of the various factors there between mix, tobacco impact, shrink and markdowns?

Yes, I think if you look at it, and you are trying to compare to where last year versus this year on those items, tobacco is the largest one again, compared to last year.

I am not talking about how we update our guidance, I am just talking about raw numbers, last year versus this year.

Mix would be the second one.

And again, that would be the mix within consumables as we have mentioned going through -- some -- sales more in the lower margin consumables.

And then the discretionary, the non-consumable being less, the mix piece that that makes up.

And then the last factor would be shrink.

Okay.

That's super helpful.

And David, while I have you, I will sneak one last question in.

Just in terms of capital return, obviously a pretty light quarter from repo.

Sounds like you are still committed to $500 million for the year.

What drove the decision not to buy back more stock in Q1, and how do you think about a dividend at this point?

Yes, we, again, in terms of our capital allocation, we remain committed to investing in the business is our number one priority, opening stores.

And again, we reiterated the 635 store openings is our guidance for 2013.

We will invest in the infrastructure to support that store growth, because we are a growth story, and stock buyback is, of course, our next usage of cash.

We became investment grade as you know relatively recently with Moody's.

We already were with S&P.

It takes about a 3.0 debt to EBITDAR ratio, somewhere in that vicinity, in terms of maintaining that investment grade rating.

That is very important to us.

So really if you look at the quarter, the $20 million of stock that we bought back was pretty much in line with staying at that 3.0 on the debt to EBITDAR.

Okay.

That's fair.

Thank you, David.

Okay.

All right.

Operator, we will move on to the next question.

Next question will come from [Craig Hestler] Bank of America.

Hi, Craig.

Hi, thanks for taking the question.

So I think you actually answered my question with the last one.

But just to confirm, you are still committed to the 3 times lease-adjusted debt to EBITDAR target?

Yes, I think as we look at our business long-term, clearly being investment grade is important to us, and that 3.0 is what drives that.

I will say on our last call, we mentioned that if there are circumstances in the debt or equity markets, changes that we deem it would be prudent for us to temporarily increase or decrease our debt levels, we may do so.

And I just want to reiterate that.

Again, that was in our last conference call.

But clearly on a long-term basis, we are targeting investment grade, and targeting that debt to EBITDAR of 3.0.

And if you temporarily increase it, would the goal still be to maintain the investment grade rating?

Yes.

Okay.

And then last question from me, just in terms of working capital for the quarter, AP was a decent drain.

Can you just kind of walk through that?

And what your expectations are for working capital for the rest of the year?

Yes.

Well, we don't give guidance on working capital, but I can talk a little about what happened in the quarter, particularly on accounts payable.

A chunk of that was related to tobacco.

We had a lot of receipts come in tobacco, as I am sure you are aware as we were stocking the stores.

And the terms on tobacco are very, very, very quick in terms of how you have to pay it.

And so that was probably the biggest thing.

And then we had a few more perishables come in, beer and wine, things of that nature.

And again those tend to be items that have quick payment terms.

I think that was probably the biggest issue in the quarter, with tobacco being the biggest -- biggest single issue.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question will come from Edward Kelly, Credit Suisse.

Good morning, Ed.

Hi.

Good morning.

Rick, could we just, quickly just go back to the gross margin?

I guess as we think about your initial expectation going into the year, it being up ex-tobacco, and now it is down.

Could you just maybe sort of -- I know we have gone through (inaudible) ways, but rank what the biggest issue of the change relative to your expectation?

And then for the rest of the year, why wouldn't the gross margin get better, because it is, other than tobacco which I know is an increased headwind, it feels like some of these other items, like discretionary getting a little bit better, easier comparisons, shrink, you should I would think be able to work on.

So why wouldn't Q1 really be the low point, and then improve from here?

Yes, let me take a shot at that.

Again, as we look at our guidance for the year, the biggest factors -- and now we are talking the change, in terms of what changed from the last guidance, different from comparing to last year that we talked about previously.

If you talk about the change, clearly the mix issue is the biggest issue we are looking at.

The mix of sales to consumables, and then the mix within the consumables category to the lower margin items.

And it is just the way we are calling it, to answer your question for the rest of the year, in terms of what we are looking at.

We see that skewing differently than when we did our guidance previously in March.

And then additionally, we mentioned shrink, and shrink is planned to be worse for the rest of the year.

And again, that is a new development that we didn't have when we did our guidance in March.

We actually thought we would see improvement in shrink as we got to the end of the year, and we don't see that anymore.

And unfortunately the way shrink works, a lot of things we are doing that will clearly help us, but the probability of those impacting this year is pretty remote.

That is probably going to be more likely to impact 2014.

Okay.

As we think about the gross margin beyond a lot of the noise which is taking place this year with the rollout of tobacco and stuff, is this a line item that you think you can keep fairly stable over the next few years?

Your -- Ed, (inaudible) that margins could be stable?

Yes, that gross margin.

Do you think that this is an item, that longer term you could keep relatively stable beyond this year?

Yes.

I mean, I think -- you are asking me to look pretty far out here.

You have to take into account the competitive situation, the environment you are in.

But Ed, I do fall back to -- I believe we have got one of the robust -- the most robust category management programs in place here.

And the beauty about category management, it is all about puts and takes and you are constantly moving around, doing what is right for the business and right for the margin.

I think in terms of sourcing, I think there is still a tremendous opportunity there, particularly when the non-consumable side of the business starts to gain a little traction again.

The private brand business for us, we continue to be amazed at the number of items we can add.

Distribution and transportation, I have to say our sourcing team continues to surprise us on how you they can cube out a truck, and cut back on stem miles.

I see no reason for that to abate.

You have another distribution center coming online toward the first-quarter of next year, that I think will do, again, give us opportunity to help on the margin.

And shrink, I have to say, I have been doing this for a long period of time.

Even before our shrink went a little sideways a couple quarters ago, I -- we still saw room for improvement there.

As good as we have done, and as far as we have come.

And the thing about shrink, it is just not a straight line to the top.

It is -- you do really well for a period of time, and then you have to kind of realign everything and get after it.

So I will tell you that my view is, as I look out down the road, I feel as good about our ability of managing the margin in the future as I do today.

Great.

Thank you.

All right.

Operator, we will move on to the next question, please.

Our next question will come from Mark Miller, William Blair.

Okay, Mark.

Good morning.

A question about store manager turnover.

I know last quarter you had upbeat comments about that.

Can you share with us what you are seeing here in 2013?

And I was wondering if you see risk of turnover could rise as employment opportunities are better in the market?

That has happened in the past, and might make that -- might it - might that make it tougher to bring shrink down some -- speaking about a cyclical headwind here?

Yes, Mark, there is no doubt that store manager turnover and shrink, there is a direct correlation, right?

And there is also a direct correlation to store standards and customer service.

Our store manager turnover at the conclusion of the first-quarter, improved yet again and was down from the previous year.

Store manager turnover in retail to me usually runs in the mid to high 20%s and we are rapidly getting into that, getting towards that number.

I do think the advantage that we have with our store managers today as I look at it over the last -- particularly the last five years is, that my view is the quickest way to a store manager's heart is through their wallet.

And the Company has performed very well, and we are paying out bonuses that are much better than they have been in the past.

So I look at the store manager turnover in 2012 as the best it has been in five years.

It has not -- has not changed.

And I think we are going to be able to hold onto them.

Okay.

That's great.

And I have a question about tobacco.

So it does obviously lift the business as that gets rolled out.

Can you just talk about longer term?

I mean, obviously the category is in decline.

What do you think your comps can be there, year two, year three?

Do you think you can increase that?

Yes, I think the -- well, by the way, I agree with you.

Tobacco is a very difficult category.

We have said that there is one good thing about tobacco, while usage goes down every year, the manufacturer increases the cost, which we turn around.

And then, tax increases that we pass on to consumers.

So there is a built-in comp there.

The comp we are looking at right now, as we have said it will be about the same as beer and wine for 2012.

All right.

Operator, may we move on to the next question, in the interest of time?

Our next question will come from John Zolidis, Marketing and Research.

Good morning, John.

Hi.

Good morning.

Question on traffic.

You mentioned it was positive I think for the 21st consecutive quarter.

In that context, could you talk about the customer demographic?

Are you seeing deceleration of higher income customers coming into the store?

How is your customer kind of changed compared to two to three years ago in terms of the income profile?

And what do you expect going forward, in terms of which new customers you are most likely to you attract and you hope to help you drive the business?

Yes, good question.

The core customer for us in terms of the amount of our sales that they are generating remains as consistent as it has been the last three or four years.

There is no evidence at this time that there is a change with the tradedown customer or the trade-in customer, have not seen anything that indicates that.

I can tell you -- you do your market research, John, with the customer about every year.

The last time we did that, which was probably three or four months ago, there was no indication from the higher demographic that if the economy got significantly better than they were going to trade out of the channel.

And again though, it is too soon for me to tell you that as we begin to move through the year.

But right now, the fastest growing customer segment we still have is that customer that is around 7,000 -- $50,000 to $70,000 a year, which is above the income of our core customer.

Great.

Thanks very much.

Thank you.

Operator, we will move on to the next question.

Next question, Dutch Fox, FBR Capital Market.

Great.

Good morning.

Good morning.

So moving over to the balance sheet, I was curious, could you talk to us a little bit about the inventory build we saw this quarter?

Was that primarily related to tobacco?

And if it was, should we continue to expect 10%-plus or so per square foot growth, growth in inventory over the course of the year?

And I had a quick follow-up to an answer to a question you gave a little bit earlier.

But thank you.

Sure.

If we look at our inventory for the quarter, our turns were 5.0 in the quarter.

If we look at the increase, as you mentioned we were up about 14% which is higher than we would like to be.

We added new items in 2012 that rolled over.

And then as Rick mentioned, we did a lot of planogram work in first-quarter.

We pushed a lot of the things that we would have done later in the year into first-quarter to get a head start on it.

So with those planogram shifts, we brought in more inventory.

And then certainly as you mentioned, we had the tobacco inventory that came in one fell swoop and hit us.

Keep in mind, as we look at our inventory, the vast majority of the increase that we have is in our core, our core inventory.

And a large piece of that is in our consumable side of the house overall.

As we look at inventory for the year, and we mentioned this last time, we see the inventory staying pretty close to where it is short-term.

But then as we get to the back half of the year, seeing improvement in terms of the inventory growth versus the sales growth and getting more in line with sales growth, i.e.

inventory growing closer to the rate that we see sales growing.

So that is how we are calling it right now.

And Dutch, I would like to throw in my personal contribution of inventory growth is the in-stock initiative, that we are very committed to being in stock.

And that is creating a bit of growth too.

Okay.

And Rick, just to clarify an answer you gave to a previous question when asked about trends in managing, you said you were smack dab in the middle of guidance.

Can you -- are you talking about the 4% to 5% guidance for the year?

Quarter to date, you are running something better than a 4%.

Is that what you are trying to say?

I am just saying that I am really pleased with where our sales are, so far in this quarter, on this day.

(Laughter).

Okay.

Thank you.

All right?

But with it, Dutch, it's Mary Wynn, with the update on our guidance where we have just updated to that 4% to 5%, I think you would -- when we said we had a solid start to the quarter, so you would start to see some acceleration there.

Okay, good.

Thank you.

All right, thanks.

All right, Operator, we will move to the next question.

Our next question will come from Dan Wewer, Raymond James.

Good morning, Dan.

Good morning.

So Rick, as I recall, Buck Holdings has three seats on your Board of Directors.

But if their ownership drops below 5%, they no longer have that guaranteed representation.

Can you tell us about how you are thinking about changing the Board going forward in light of their ownership change?

Yes, the first thing I would like to say, Dan -- by the way, another very fair question.

First thing I would like to say is, you are talking about Adrian Jones and Mike and Raj.

And I would just like to say, the value that they have added to that Board of Directors over the last five years, it has just been -- it has been sensational.

It has been great working with them.

As we move through the course of the year, it is fair to say, we will need to step back and take a look at that.

We just recently elected them for another year.

And I think as we move through the year, we will take a look at that.

Now I have asked Mike Calbert, who I believe to be one of the best business partners I have had, to stay on as lead Director and he has agreed to that.

But then we will work our way through the other two seats, as we move through the year.

Okay.

And then just to beat the dead horse one more time, it is just a little puzzling for those of us on the call are, one, why are you lowering the high end of the comp sales guidance from 6% to 5%?

I mean it is a small change to begin with, particularly if you are indicating you are off to a solid start in the second quarter.

And then further, not to talk about the reasons why the margin guidance is dropping, but gosh, it was only March 25 that the Company last gave guidance.

And we knew at that time there was going to be significant growth in these higher priced SKUs that are susceptible to shrink, and you have a lot of experienced people in your staff.

So I am just -- those are the two things that I think are really puzzling.

Yes, Dan, I think that is -- again, I think that is, again, a quality question here.

I think that -- I have always prided myself on being incredibly transparent, and calling it like I see it, when I see it.

And we moved into March knowing that it was going to be a tough period, and didn't fare through it as well as we thought we would.

But the thing that we did see, is when we came out of March -- and by the way, in March we were up against a double-digit comp from the previous year.

We didn't see April catch as fast as we thought it was going to.

In fact, we went through a couple weeks in April before the sales started to accelerate.

And what we have noticed over the course of the last few weeks is no doubt a shift that is taking place within consumables, as well as the non-consumable side.

And while we are better off in non-consumables today than where we were in the first-quarter, we are still not where we want to be.

And I thought it was prudent, since a 4% to 5% comp is still a -- which I think is a pretty healthy comp to stand up to, I thought it was prudent to tell you what I was thinking.

In regards to the margin, while you are seeing that mix, that mix change in non-consumables, you are -- excuse me, you are also seeing a mix change in consumables and the customer is gravitating into a lower margin national brand item.

And we haven't seen a lot of that before.

And again, that comes back to I think, we were a little over zealous in adding SKUs in there.

(Multiple Speakers).

So when you were completing cycle inventories after you cut off fiscal year '12, that is when you began to get some bad numbers roll in?

Yes.

No, I don't want to incur that we are seeing bad numbers.

What I am seeing is, as we move through March, we started to see a change in the purchasing pattern of the customer.

Our traffic is great, and the basket is great.

It is just what they are buying is just a little bit different.

Yes.

And we also thought that we would see more progress on the shrink side of the ledger.

And it is proving to be a little bit more difficult.

And again, that is why we are -- it is how we are -- it is why we are looking at that.

So --

Okay, great.

Thanks.

Okay.

All right, operator, I think we have time for maybe one more question.

Thank you.

Our next question will come from Peter Keyes, Piper Jaffray.

Good morning, Peter.

Good morning, everyone.

I just want to wrap up with a question on Phase 5, and kind of how you are thinking about that as a sales benefit for the full year?

Given, it looks like you are bringing in mostly HVA inventory, and kind of in that context, your main competitor in the space has talked about HVA inventory kind of having a long sales ramp just because it turns slower.

So could you kind of summarize how Phase 5 has fit into the guidance in terms of if there is a benefit, or we should be patient on the ramp that you are going to receive from the new inventory?

Yes.

I think as I look at Phase 5, it is HVA, but it is also some grocery, consumable items too.

I think in terms of paper, in terms of the chemical side of the business.

We do particularly good in candy and snacks.

So there is, the non-- the consumable as well as the HVA.

I will tell you, those stores that have been completed, and it is awfully soon to tell.

The consumer has to find the product, realize it's there, but they are already running 1% above what they were trending, and continuing to improve on that.

So we feel pretty good about that group of stores.

Okay.

Well, thank you very much.

Good luck this coming quarter.

Thank you so much, I appreciate that.

All right.

Operator, I think we are at the top of the hour, so with that this will conclude our call.

Thank you very much for your interest in Dollar General.

Emma Jo and I are around all day.

I know we are leaving a few people in the queue, and I do apologize on that.

But please feel free to give us a call, and look forward to talking to you soon.

Thank you.

Thank you very much.

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time this conference has now concluded.

You may disconnect your phone lines, and have a great rest of the week.

Thank you.