Diageo PLC (DEO) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us this morning. Nik and I are here to share with you the results of fiscal '26 for Diageo -- and I'd also like to say something about the Capital Markets Day, which is taking place in our office this afternoon.

各位女士、先生，早安，感謝各位今天上午加入我們。Nik 和我在此與各位分享帝亞吉歐（Diageo）2026 財政年度的業績——我也想談談今天下午在我們辦公室舉行的資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）。

We've issued today two statements, one to cover '26 and the other to cover Capital Markets Day. And I think the way we'll do this, if it's okay with you, is I'll ask Nik to walk you through the results of last year. And then I'll come back and share a few thoughts as we get ready for the Capital Markets Day this afternoon. Nik, over to you.

我們今天發布了兩份聲明，一份涵蓋 2026 財政年度，另一份涵蓋資本市場日。我想，如果各位不介意，我們的安排是我先請 Nik 帶各位回顧去年的業績。接著我會再回來，在我們準備今天下午的資本市場日之際分享一些想法。Nik，交給你。

Thank you, Dave. So fiscal '26 has been a mixed year with good momentum in Europe, Latin America and Africa, but with challenges in North America and Asia Pacific that we've talked about through the year. We're focused on becoming more competitive in the US, and we'll share more details on this later at our Capital Markets Day.

謝謝你，Dave。2026 財政年度表現喜憂參半：歐洲、拉丁美洲與非洲動能良好，但北美與亞太則面臨我們今年一路以來談到的挑戰。我們正專注於提升在美國的競爭力，並將在稍後的資本市場日分享更多細節。

We have delivered strong free cash flow, which has enabled us to reduce leverage at the end of the year. We have made good progress on the three priorities that Dave set out at our interim results and the implementation of the new operating model is already well progressed. The savings from the actions we are taking will allow us to invest without reducing operating profit, and we look forward to expanding and sharing more detail on this later today. Now let me walk you through our results.

我們交出強勁的自由現金流，使我們得以在年末降低槓桿。我們在 Dave 於期中業績所提出的三項優先事項上取得良好進展，而新營運模式的導入也已相當到位。我們採取行動所帶來的節省，將使我們能在不降低營業利益的情況下進行投資；我們期待在今天稍晚進一步擴充並分享更多細節。現在我帶各位看一下我們的業績。

In the context of a continued challenging macro environment and industry backdrop in many of our markets, but in particular, US spirits and Chinese white spirits, organic net sales declined 2%. However, our group operating profit increased 2%. Notably, excluding the impact from Chinese white spirits, organic net sales would have declined around 0.5 percentage point with organic profit growth around 4.5%.

在多數市場持續具挑戰的總體環境與產業背景下，尤其是美國烈酒與中國白酒，我們的有機淨銷售額下滑 2%。然而，集團營業利益成長 2%。值得注意的是，若排除中國白酒的影響，有機淨銷售額約僅會下滑 0.5 個百分點，而有機利益成長約為 4.5%。

For Asia Pacific, excluding Chinese white spirits, net sales would have been up low single digits. Europe, LAC and Africa delivered strong growth. Our focus on cost savings through the Accelerate program supported organic operating profit and offset the impact of lower gross profit due to the mix of market growth.

就亞太而言，若排除中國白酒，淨銷售額將呈現低個位數成長。歐洲、拉丁美洲與加勒比（LAC）以及非洲均實現強勁成長。我們透過 Accelerate 計畫聚焦成本節省，支撐了有機營業利益，並抵銷了因市場成長組合所致的毛利下滑影響。

EPS pre-exceptionals was up 0.7% with the positive impact of organic operating profit growth and favorable foreign exchange, mostly offset by lower fair value remeasurement versus the prior year as well as lapping the impact of the disposal of our businesses in Ghana and Nigeria. Our strong focus on cash resulted in free cash flow delivery of $3.2 billion for the year, $463 million up on last year.

扣除特殊項目前每股盈餘（EPS）成長 0.7%；有機營業利益成長與有利的匯率影響帶來正面貢獻，但多數被相較前一年較低的公允價值重新衡量，以及去年處分迦納與奈及利亞業務影響的基期因素所抵銷。我們對現金的高度聚焦，使本年度自由現金流達 32 億美元，較去年增加 4.63 億美元。

We also recommended a full year dividend of $0.50 per share, equating to a 30% dividend payout ratio in line with the dividend payout policy we moved to earlier this year of 30% to 50%. Turning to the regions. The biggest challenge was an 8.4% organic sales decline in North America, driven by softness in our US spirits performance, particularly in tequila, which declined approximately 21%. This was driven by both Casamigos and Don Julio with tough comps for Don Julio and down trading within what has been a weaker category.

我們也建議全年股利為每股 0.50 美元，相當於 30% 的股利配發率，符合我們今年稍早調整為 30% 至 50% 的股利配發政策。接著看各區域表現。最大的挑戰是北美有機銷售額下滑 8.4%，主因是我們美國烈酒表現疲弱，尤其是龍舌蘭酒（tequila）約下滑 21%。這主要由 Casamigos 與 Don Julio 所帶動；Don Julio 面臨較高的比較基期，加上在較疲弱的品類中出現消費降級（down trading）。

John will talk to this later at our Capital Markets Day. Organic growth in Diageo Beer Company was good at around 4%, led by both Guinness and Smirnoff RTD. Moving to Europe. Organic net sales increased approximately 3%, driven by double-digit growth in Guinness in Great Britain and double-digit volume growth in Raki, Scotch and Gin in Turkey as a result of increased distribution and visibility.

John 將在我們的資本市場日稍後談到這一點。帝亞吉歐啤酒公司（Diageo Beer Company）的有機成長表現良好，約為 4%，由 Guinness 與 Smirnoff RTD 共同帶動。接著看歐洲。有機淨銷售額約成長 3%，主要受英國 Guinness 兩位數成長，以及土耳其因通路覆蓋與能見度提升而帶動的 Raki、蘇格蘭威士忌（Scotch）與琴酒（Gin）兩位數銷量成長所驅動。

The continued impact of weakness in Chinese white spirits adversely impacted sales in APAC, resulting in organic sales down around 6%. The negative impact of Chinese white spirits on region net sales was circa 8%. In India, continued momentum in Prestige & Above segment brands, combined with locally inspired flavor innovation on Smirnoff and successful format innovation on Royal Challenge contributed to strong results.

中國白酒疲弱的持續影響拖累亞太銷售，使有機銷售額約下滑 6%。中國白酒對區域淨銷售額的負面影響約為 8%。在印度，Prestige & Above（中高端及以上）區隔品牌的持續動能，加上 Smirnoff 的在地化風味創新，以及 Royal Challenge 成功的包裝／規格（format）創新，共同帶來強勁表現。

This momentum enabled India to deliver organic net sales growth of around 7% despite the adverse impact from the excise policy changes in Maharashtra, which especially impacted net sales from lower prestige price points. In LAC, we saw net sales growth in most markets with particularly strong performance in Brazil and Colombia. Notably, the second half in Brazil saw a recovery in consumer confidence following the impact on the industry in Q2 of counterfeit alcohol incidents, which was particularly pronounced in the on-trade.

這股動能使印度即便受到馬哈拉施特拉邦（Maharashtra）消費稅政策變更的不利影響（尤其衝擊較低端價位帶的淨銷售額），仍能實現約 7% 的有機淨銷售額成長。在拉丁美洲與加勒比（LAC），我們在多數市場看到淨銷售額成長，其中巴西與哥倫比亞表現尤其強勁。值得注意的是，巴西下半年在第二季因假酒事件對產業造成衝擊（且在即飲通路／餐飲通路 on-trade 特別明顯）之後，消費者信心出現回升。

Across Africa, we saw broad-based net sales growth across the region with strong double-digit growth in South Africa, driven by RTDs and also strong beer performance across East Africa. Let me now take you through the movement in net sales for the year in more detail. Reported net sales declined 3%, driven by organic sales decline and the adverse impact of acquisitions and disposals.

在非洲各地，我們看到區域內廣泛的淨銷售額成長；南非在 RTD 帶動下呈現強勁的兩位數成長，而東非的啤酒表現也同樣強勁。接下來我將更詳細說明本年度淨銷售額的變動。列報淨銷售額下滑 3%，主要由有機銷售額下滑以及併購與處分帶來的不利影響所致。

This was only partly mitigated by favorable foreign exchange and the hyperinflation adjustments. You'll note we have presented the offset between the outsized hyperinflationary adjustment relating to Venezuela and the foreign exchange impact, which are due to the hyperinflationary accounting and our foreign exchange reporting approach.

這僅部分被有利的匯率與惡性通膨調整所緩解。各位會注意到，我們呈現了與委內瑞拉相關的較大惡性通膨調整與匯率影響之間的相互抵銷；這源於惡性通膨會計處理以及我們的匯率列報方式。

This presentation allows a clearer picture of the movements within organic growth, excluding this impact. Organic volume growth declined 0.4% as good volume growth in Africa and LAC was offset by volume losses in NAM and APAC. Excluding the impact of Chinese white spirits, volumes were broadly flat. Europe and LAC delivered positive price/mix with 1.6% decline at the group level, driven mainly by the adverse impact of Chinese white spirits weakness and the decline in US spirits, primarily due to tequila, as I talked earlier.

這樣的呈現方式，能更清楚地看出在排除此影響後，有機成長內部的變動。有機銷量成長下滑 0.4%；非洲與 LAC 的良好銷量成長，被北美（NAM）與亞太（APAC）的銷量下滑所抵銷。若排除中國白酒的影響，銷量大致持平。歐洲與 LAC 帶來正面的價格／組合（price/mix），但集團層級價格／組合下滑 1.6%，主要由中國白酒疲弱的不利影響，以及美國烈酒下滑（主要是龍舌蘭酒）所驅動，正如我先前所提。

If you exclude the impact of Chinese white spirits, price/mix would be down approximately 0.5 point. The negative impact from acquisitions and disposals was due to the disposal of Guinness Ghana at the beginning of fiscal '26 and the disposals of Guinness Nigeria, which completed in September 2024 and Ciroc, which completed in the fourth quarter of fiscal '25. Turning now to the movement in operating profit for the year. Reported operating profit before exceptionals declined 0.4% with organic operating profit growth and favorable foreign exchange offset by the movement in acquisitions and disposals and lower fair value remeasurement.

若排除中國白酒的影響，價格／組合約會下滑 0.5 個百分點。併購與處分的負面影響，來自於 2026 財政年度初處分 Guinness Ghana，以及於 2024 年 9 月完成的 Guinness Nigeria 處分，與於 2025 財政年度第四季完成的 Ciroc 處分。接著看本年度營業利益的變動。扣除特殊項目前的列報營業利益下滑 0.4%；有機營業利益成長與有利匯率影響，被併購與處分的變動以及較低的公允價值重新衡量所抵銷。

Gross profit declined $506 million organically with adverse product mix, cost inflation and tariffs being only partly mitigated by cost efficiencies. Organic profit growth was supported by savings from Accelerate from more efficient A&P and overhead spend, partly offset by lower gross profit. Marketing spend was lower in part reflecting Accelerate savings combined with deliberate prioritization and being more choiceful in how and where we spend. As I said consistently through the year, our commitment to investing in our brands for the future remains unchanged.

毛利在有機基礎上減少 5.06 億美元，主因是不利的產品組合、成本通膨與關稅影響，僅部分被成本效率所緩解。有機利益成長受到 Accelerate 節省的支持，來源包括更有效率的 A&P（廣告與促銷）與管理費用支出，但部分被較低的毛利所抵銷。行銷支出下降，部分反映 Accelerate 節省，並結合我們有意識地設定優先順序，以及在支出方式與投放地點上更為審慎取捨。正如我今年一再強調的，我們對於為品牌未來進行投資的承諾不變。

Accelerate also contributed to lower overheads with savings reflecting optimized IT costs and strong cost controls across the corporate organization. I am pleased that we delivered $514 million or circa 85% of the Accelerate program in fiscal '26. As mentioned, the savings come from a focus on driving efficiency and effectiveness from A&P investment, supply and overheads.

Accelerate 亦透過節省（反映 IT 成本最佳化）以及企業組織範圍內強而有力的成本控管，促成了較低的間接費用。我很高興我們在 26 財年交付了 5.14 億美元，約占 Accelerate 計畫的 85%。如前所述，這些節省來自於聚焦於提升 A&P 投資、供應與間接費用的效率與效能。

You will have seen some of the detail in the earlier slides on the A&P savings of $210 million as well as $130 million in lower overheads. This was also supplemented by circa $180 million from supply savings and also $20 million from trade spend efficiency. You may remember that the latter was something we had said would take longer to come through and benefits the P&L through net sales.

您已在先前投影片中看到部分細節：A&P 節省 2.10 億美元，以及間接費用降低 1.30 億美元。此外，亦有約 1.80 億美元的供應節省，以及 2,000 萬美元的通路費用（trade spend）效率提升作為補充。您可能記得，我們曾表示後者需要更長時間才能顯現，其效益會透過淨銷售反映在損益表（P&L）中。

Going forward, we will update you on supply chain savings and the operating framework as shared separately in our CMD release and the event later today. Moving to cash. Free cash flow increased $463 million versus fiscal '25 to $3.2 billion. This strong year-on-year delivery was driven by a more disciplined investment in CapEx and maturing stock, along with lower tax payments.

展望未來，我們將就供應鏈節省與營運架構進一步向各位更新，相關內容已在我們另行發布的 CMD 新聞稿以及今天稍晚的活動中分享。接著談現金。自由現金流較 25 財年增加 4.63 億美元至 32 億美元。這項強勁的年增表現，主要由更嚴謹的資本支出（CapEx）投資與到期存貨（maturing stock）管理所帶動，並受惠於較低的稅款支付。

This result also includes a circa $125 million one-off investment in working capital to increase resilience through the implementation of our new S/4HANA ERP system and, to a lesser degree, to mitigate risk arising from the Middle East conflict.

此結果亦包含約 1.25 億美元的一次性營運資金投資，用以在導入我們新的 S/4HANA ERP 系統時提升韌性；此外，亦在較小程度上用於緩解中東衝突所帶來的風險。

The cash outflow from maturing stock through the year was minimal as we continue to optimize investment with more frequent and dynamic reviews of our mid- to long-term maturing liquid requirements. CapEx was approximately $1.2 billion, a decrease of about $370 million on last year, reflecting a disciplined approach to investing in projects, including Guinness production capacity expansion, supply agility and digital infrastructure. Tax paid was lower, partly due to a historic tax refund of circa $100 million.

年度內因到期存貨所造成的現金流出極小，因我們持續透過更頻繁且更動態的檢視，最佳化中長期到期流動性需求的投資。資本支出約為 12 億美元，較去年減少約 3.70 億美元，反映我們對專案投資採取更嚴謹的做法，包括 Guinness 產能擴張、供應敏捷性與數位基礎建設。已支付稅款較低，部分原因是約 1.00 億美元的歷史稅款退稅。

EPS pre-exceptionals increased 0.7% on last year to $1.653, mainly driven by organic operating profit growth, partly offset by lower fair value remeasurement. There was also some offset between favorable foreign exchange and the negative impact of the disposals on reported operating profit I mentioned earlier and higher finance charges. I would like to spend some time on exceptional operating charges given their magnitude. I'll take you through the detail, particularly related to impairment, but also the work on restructuring.

扣除特殊項目前每股盈餘（EPS）較去年增加 0.7% 至 1.653 美元，主要由有機營業利益成長帶動，部分被較低的公允價值重估所抵銷。此外，我先前提到的處分對報導營業利益的負面影響與較高的財務費用，與有利的匯率因素之間也出現部分相互抵銷。鑑於特殊營業費用的金額規模，我想花一些時間說明。我將帶各位看細節，特別是與減損相關的部分，也包括重組工作的內容。

During the period, we incurred impairment charges of circa $1.5 billion and restructuring charges of circa $0.9 billion. The impairment charge included two large items. Firstly, a $786 million charge related to the Turkey business and the goodwill from the Mey Icki acquisition and several brands. The Turkey-related impairment was largely due to the impact of hyperinflationary accounting on carrying values relative to the inflationary environment as we look to be more competitive on shelf.

在本期間，我們認列約 15 億美元的減損費用，以及約 9 億美元的重組費用。減損費用包含兩項較大的項目。第一項是與土耳其業務、Mey Icki 收購所產生的商譽，以及數個品牌相關的 7.86 億美元費用。與土耳其相關的減損，主要是由於惡性通膨會計對帳面價值的影響，使其相對於通膨環境而偏高；我們正致力於在貨架端提升競爭力。

As you would have seen in our fiscal '26 results, we're pleased with the on-the-ground performance in Turkey despite the challenges of operating in a high inflationary environment. Then the other sizable amount was a $287 million charge related to the impairment of the Don Papa brand, which was impacted by the decline of the rum category in Europe.

如您在我們 26 財年業績中所見，儘管在高通膨環境下營運充滿挑戰，我們仍對土耳其當地的實際表現感到滿意。另一項較大的金額是 2.87 億美元，與 Don Papa 品牌的減損相關，該品牌受到歐洲蘭姆酒品類下滑的影響。

The restructuring charges are mainly related to the implementation of our new operating framework with $752 million in fiscal '26 and the balance of the restructuring related to supply chain and Accelerate program, which will now be closed off. This included impairments related to our supply chain assets as we took corrective actions to right size our capacity based on industry outlooks and improved returns. Moving to the balance sheet. We closed the year with lower net debt at $20.5 billion. This is $1.4 billion lower than at the close of the prior year, driven by strong free cash flow delivered through fiscal '26.

重組費用主要與我們新營運架構的導入相關，26 財年為 7.52 億美元；其餘重組則與供應鏈及 Accelerate 計畫相關，而該計畫現將結案。其中包含與供應鏈資產相關的減損，因我們採取矯正行動，依據產業展望與改善報酬來調整產能規模。接著看資產負債表。我們在年底的淨負債較低，為 205 億美元。較前一年度年底降低 14 億美元，主要由 26 財年強勁的自由現金流所帶動。

This reduction in net debt is reflected in our leverage ratio, which closed the year at 3.1 times, down from 3.4 times at the end of fiscal '25. As a reminder, we had guided that the completion of the sale of our 65% shareholding in EABL announced in December, is expected to delever our balance sheet by circa 0.25 times and to complete in the second half of calendar 2026.

淨負債下降反映在我們的槓桿比率上，年底為 3.1 倍，低於 25 財年年底的 3.4 倍。提醒各位，我們先前指引：於 12 月宣布出售我們持有 EABL 65% 股權的交易完成後，預期可使資產負債表去槓桿約 0.25 倍，並預計於 2026 年曆年下半年完成。

In addition, in March 26, USL announced the sale of its ownership in Royal Challengers Bangalore, and the completion process is progressing as planned, which should also result in around a 0.1 times reduction in net debt to EBITDA.

此外，USL 於 3 月 26 日宣布出售其在 Royal Challengers Bangalore 的持股，完成流程正按計畫推進，亦可望使淨負債對 EBITDA 比率再降低約 0.1 倍。

At this time, I would normally take you through guidance, but I will be doing that later today at the Capital Markets Day. With that, I'm going to hand the call back to Dave.

此時我通常會帶各位看指引，但我將在今天稍晚的資本市場日（Capital Markets Day）再進一步說明。接下來，我把電話交回給 Dave。

Thanks very much, Nik. If I look now to the Capital Markets Day this afternoon, as you will have seen in the release, I'm very happy to say that the three priorities that we set out earlier in the year of building relevant brands and competitive category strategies, a complete focus on the customer and our channel management and a more agile and competitive operating framework have laid a really very firm foundation on which we'll be talking more at the Capital Markets Day this afternoon.

非常感謝你，Nik。若我現在看今天下午的資本市場日，如各位在公告中所見，我很高興地表示：我們在年初所訂下的三項優先事項——打造具相關性的品牌與具競爭力的品類策略、全面聚焦客戶與通路管理，以及更敏捷且更具競爭力的營運架構——已奠定非常堅實的基礎，我們將在今天下午的資本市場日進一步說明。

I suppose I would point to the changes in the operating framework because they trigger quite a significant restructuring charge for Diageo. The total restructuring that we'll talk about in the Capital Markets Day over two years is a $1.2 billion restructuring plan.

我想我會特別指出營運架構的變革，因為它們觸發了帝亞吉歐相當可觀的重組費用。我們將在資本市場日談到的兩年期重組總額，是一項 12 億美元的重組計畫。

$1.1 billion of that relates to the operating framework changes and $100 million or so is related to the supply chain. The savings from those restructurings are around $1 billion, $850 million of that is in the operating framework and $150 million of that is in the supply chain. These savings are significant. They're very important as we chart the turnaround of Diageo.

其中 11 億美元與營運架構變革相關，約 1 億美元則與供應鏈相關。這些重組所帶來的節省約為 10 億美元，其中 8.50 億美元來自營運架構，1.50 億美元來自供應鏈。這些節省相當可觀。在我們規劃帝亞吉歐的扭轉（turnaround）之際，它們非常重要。

The savings will allow us to invest in innovation selectively where we need to improve our competitiveness, but they also allow us to do so without needing to reduce the operating profit, and that's something we'll talk much more about later today. A restructuring program of this size obviously has very significant impacts on Diageo colleagues.

這些節省將使我們能在需要提升競爭力之處，有選擇性地投資於創新；同時也讓我們能在不必降低營業利益的情況下做到這一點，而這也是我們今天稍晚將更深入討論的內容。如此規模的重組計畫，顯然會對帝亞吉歐同仁帶來非常重大的影響。

And I'd like to put on to record my deep appreciation for the way the Diageo colleagues have engaged with this change program, most of which has been communicated throughout the business a month or so ago. So thank you for listening to the call. Look forward to seeing many of you this afternoon and take care.

我也想在此正式表達我由衷的感謝，感謝帝亞吉歐同仁以這樣的方式投入並參與這項變革計畫；其中大部分內容已在約一個月前於整個公司內部完成溝通。因此，感謝各位收聽本次電話會議。期待今天下午與許多各位見面，請多保重。