Diageo PLC (DEO) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Diageo's 2020 Preliminary Results Investor Q&A Call. Your call today will be hosted by Diageo's CEO, Ivan Menezes; and CFO, Kathy Mikells. (Operator Instructions) We're now ready to start the call.

早上好，歡迎來到帝亞吉歐 2020 年初步業績投資者問答電話會議。您今天的電話會議將由帝亞吉歐首席執行官 Ivan Menezes 主持；首席財務官 Kathy Mikells。 （操作員說明）我們現在可以開始通話了。

Mr. Menezes, please go ahead.

梅內塞斯先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our preliminary results call. I hope you and your families have been staying well through this time.

謝謝。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的初步結果電話會議。我希望你和你的家人這段時間都過得很好。

Fiscal '20 was a year of 2 distinct halves. In the first half, we delivered good, consistent performance, with broad-based organic growth across regions, categories, and we had margin expansion. Our second half performance, however, was significantly impacted by the global outbreak of COVID-19, with the peak of the impact occurring in Q4. We adapted quickly and acted decisively to protect our people and our business. We supported our customers, trade partners and communities. We stayed connected to our consumers and rapidly responded to the changing needs. We reduced expenditure, conserved cash and raised additional liquidity.

20 財年有兩個截然不同的部分。上半年，我們取得了良好、穩定的業績，跨地區、跨品類實現了廣泛的有機增長，我們的利潤率也有所增長。然而，我們下半年的業績受到全球爆發的 COVID-19 的嚴重影響，影響的高峰出現在第四季度。我們迅速適應並採取果斷行動來保護我們的員工和業務。我們支持我們的客戶、貿易夥伴和社區。我們與消費者保持聯繫，並迅速響應不斷變化的需求。我們減少了支出，保存了現金並籌集了額外的流動資金。

The strong foundation we built over the last 6 years has increased our resilience and agility and smart investment has given us the technology tools to be effective in this environment. Our insights have enabled us to stay close to consumers, and we've continuously refocused our marketing investments to capture opportunities and strengthen brand equity.

我們在過去 6 年中建立的堅實基礎提高了我們的彈性和敏捷性，而明智的投資為我們提供了在這種環境中發揮作用的技術工具。我們的洞察力使我們能夠貼近消費者，並且我們不斷重新調整營銷投資的重點，以抓住機會並加強品牌資產。

The U.S., our largest and most profitable market, has been most resilient. Off-trade demand was strong during lockdown, and our tequila and Canadian whiskey brands continued to perform particularly well through the year. Depletions were ahead of shipments, which resulted in a reduction in distributor inventories.

美國是我們最大、利潤最高的市場，一直最具彈性。封鎖期間場外需求強勁，我們的龍舌蘭酒和加拿大威士忌品牌在這一年繼續表現出色。耗盡先於發貨，這導致分銷商庫存減少。

In our other regions, we had a much higher on-trade exposure, which meant the impact on our business was more severe. For example, in Europe, around 50% of our sales are normally on-trade, and Africa is a strongly on-trade-oriented region. As these 2 regions are our largest beer markets, the decline in our beer business looked significant during COVID-19. In aggregate, around 3/4 of Guinness sales are on-trade in the larger Guinness markets in Europe and Africa.

在我們的其他地區，我們的貿易敞口要高得多，這意味著對我們業務的影響更為嚴重。例如，在歐洲，我們大約 50% 的銷售額通常是場外交易，而非洲是一個非常注重場內交易的地區。由於這兩個地區是我們最大的啤酒市場，因此在 COVID-19 期間，我們的啤酒業務下滑幅度看起來很大。總體而言，大約 3/4 的吉尼斯啤酒銷售額來自歐洲和非洲較大的吉尼斯啤酒市場。

The impact of COVID-19 was also disproportionately high for our scotch category due to its greater exposure to emerging markets and travel retail. Together, they account for over 2/3 of our scotch net sales prior to COVID-19.

COVID-19 對我們的蘇格蘭威士忌類別的影響也格外高，因為它更容易接觸新興市場和旅遊零售。在 COVID-19 之前，它們合計占我們蘇格蘭威士忌淨銷售額的 2/3 以上。

So across all our markets, we moved rapidly to adapt to the reduction in consumer demand caused by COVID-19 in keeping with our disciplined sell-out culture. Our decision to take back around 500,000 Guinness kegs from customers demonstrates our commitment to quality. We've also been very disciplined in our working capital management.

因此，在我們所有的市場中，我們迅速採取行動以適應 COVID-19 導致的消費者需求減少，以保持我們紀律嚴明的銷售文化。我們決定從客戶那裡收回大約 500,000 個吉尼斯桶，這表明了我們對質量的承諾。我們在營運資金管理方面也非常嚴格。

While the on-trade is gradually reopening in many of our markets, we expect volatility to continue. Given the significant uncertainty around the pace and shape of recovery, we're not providing specific revenue and profit guidance for fiscal '21. We expect organic net revenue in the first half of fiscal '21 to be significantly impacted. However, within Q4 of fiscal '20, we saw sequential improvements. We expect that to continue into fiscal '21, with sequential improvement in the first and second quarter as the on-trade continues to reopen and consumer demand begins to recover.

雖然在我們的許多市場中，交易正在逐漸重新開放，但我們預計波動將繼續。鑑於復甦的步伐和形式存在重大不確定性，我們不會為 21 財年提供具體的收入和利潤指導。我們預計 21 財年上半年的有機淨收入將受到重大影響。然而，在 20 財年的第四季度，我們看到了連續的改善。我們預計這種情況將持續到 21 財年，隨著貿易繼續重新開放和消費者需求開始復蘇，第一季度和第二季度將出現連續改善。

Today, we announced that we are recommending a final dividend in line with fiscal '19, bringing the full year dividend growth to 2%. This reflects our long-term confidence in the resilience of our business and the robust fundamentals of our industry.

今天，我們宣布我們建議根據 19 財年派發末期股息，使全年股息增長率達到 2%。這反映了我們對我們業務的彈性和我們行業穩健的基本面的長期信心。

As we manage through this period, we are determined to emerge stronger. We are rapidly responding to changing consumer opportunities, investing with agility in marketing and innovation, partnering with our customers to win across all channels, driving efficiencies in cost and cash management and continuing to do business in the right way from grain to glass.

在我們度過這段時期的過程中，我們決心變得更強大。我們正在快速響應不斷變化的消費者機會，靈活地投資於營銷和創新，與我們的客戶合作以在所有渠道中取勝，提高成本和現金管理的效率，並繼續以正確的方式開展從穀物到玻璃的業務。

And with that, Kathy and I are ready to take your questions. Let's open the line for questions.

就這樣，凱西和我準備好回答你的問題了。讓我們打開問題熱線。

We have our first question from Sanjeet Aujla from Crédit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Sanjeet Aujla。

A couple of questions, please. Firstly, the latest market data from the U.S. and also the new data from Europe, it seems like Diageo is underperforming the category within the off-premise channel. Can you just talk a bit about your competitiveness in the off-trade, in particular, post-COVID? And then in emerging markets, are you seeing any signs of consumers down-trading from the spirit category to illicit or even to beer?

請問幾個問題。首先，來自美國的最新市場數據以及來自歐洲的新數據，似乎帝亞吉歐在場外渠道中的表現不及同類產品。您能否談談您在場外交易中的競爭力，尤其是在 COVID 之後？然後在新興市場，您是否看到消費者從烈酒類別轉向非法甚至啤酒的任何跡象？

Sure. Sanjeet, your question on U.S. share performance in the off-trade, if you look at our performance across the portfolio, we've got, I'd say, share-gaining brands and share-losing brands. Clearly, tequila, our North American whiskey brands are doing very well. Vodka and rum are tougher. What I would point to is, firstly, Nielsen and NABCA represent about 40 -- 45% of the market. As I had indicated, our depletions ran ahead of our shipments. However, we're slightly behind the market. If you go back the past 18 months, the U.S. had got to be in line with the market. We were slightly behind right now when you look at our depletion growth relative to the industry growth. And we are very focused in our actions to make sure we improve that going into fiscal '21. I have to say, overall, the strength of our U.S. performance, I'm very pleased with. And you would see our price/mix is higher than the industry. And one of the actions we have taken is not to chase share, but to really keep the quality of share growth strong. So our price/mix is running well ahead of the industry price/mix if you look at the last recent few months.

當然。 Sanjeet，你關於場外交易中美國股票表現的問題，如果你看看我們在整個投資組合中的表現，我會說，我們有份額增加的品牌和份額減少的品牌。顯然，龍舌蘭酒，我們的北美威士忌品牌做得很好。伏特加和朗姆酒更烈。我要指出的是，首先，尼爾森和 NABCA 代表了大約 40-45% 的市場。正如我所指出的，我們的消耗量超過了我們的出貨量。然而，我們略微落後於市場。如果你回到過去 18 個月，美國必須與市場保持一致。當您查看我們相對於行業增長的消耗增長時，我們現在略微落後。我們非常專注於我們的行動，以確保我們在進入 21 財年時有所改善。我不得不說，總的來說，我們美國表現的實力，我很滿意。你會看到我們的價格/組合高於行業。我們採取的行動之一不是追逐份額，而是真正保持強勁的份額增長質量。因此，如果您查看最近幾個月，我們的價格/組合遠遠領先於行業價格/組合。

On the emerging markets, I'd say you've got a couple of impacts. One is imported products like scotch. Particularly when you have currency devaluations and economic slowdown, you do have a natural impacts of some down-trading that takes place from there. And this is not new, we've faced it over cycles, over many, many decades. So you would see some of our primary scotch brands like Black & White and VAT 69, et cetera, picking up and the top end of deluxe and super deluxe scotch slowing down. I would say, overall, spirit continues to be healthy. And the breadth of our portfolio gives us the ability to say our mainstream spirits play in Africa, we see as a real opportunity for actually spirits to gain share from beer through this period. So it's market-specific trend within scotch in emerging markets, particularly where currencies have -- and economies had taken a downward trend, we will see some short-term down-trading in scotch whiskey. But overall, spirits is healthy. And I'd say the actions we've taken to broaden our portfolio position us better to maintain our positions and indeed grow share as we go through '21.

在新興市場，我想說你有幾個影響。一種是蘇格蘭威士忌等進口產品。特別是當貨幣貶值和經濟放緩時，您確實會受到從那裡發生的一些向下交易的自然影響。這並不是什麼新鮮事，我們已經經歷了很多、很多年的周期。因此，您會看到我們的一些主要蘇格蘭威士忌品牌，如 Black & White 和 VAT 69 等，正在崛起，而高端和超豪華蘇格蘭威士忌的銷量正在放緩。我會說，總的來說，精神繼續健康。我們產品組合的廣度使我們有能力說我們的主流烈酒在非洲發揮作用，我們認為這是真正的烈酒在此期間從啤酒中獲得份額的真正機會。因此，這是新興市場蘇格蘭威士忌的特定市場趨勢，特別是在貨幣有 - 並且經濟呈下降趨勢的情況下，我們將看到蘇格蘭威士忌的一些短期下跌交易。但總的來說，精神是健康的。我想說的是，我們為擴大我們的投資組合而採取的行動使我們能夠更好地保持我們的地位，並在我們經歷 21 世紀時確實增加份額。

Got it. And just following up on Europe. Any comments on share trends in Europe, particularly in the post-COVID environment in the off-trade channel?

知道了。並且只是跟進歐洲。對歐洲的股票趨勢有何評論，特別是在非交易渠道的後 COVID 環境中？

Yes. So just the context on Europe. One is we are heavily skewed to the on-premise in Europe, right, because of our beer business. Guinness is significantly on-premise skewed. If you look at our performance in the most recent months, the at-home performances or the off-trade performance on beer is improving. Guinness is actually gaining share in the off-trade. And as the on-trade comes back, and I'm just using the data point of the last few weeks in the U.K., we are also seeing Guinness perform relatively better within the beer category. So I'm feeling very good about Guinness. On spirits, we are underperforming the markets slightly, but we feel confident going into the first half of fiscal '21. We've got strong programs, good innovation and fully expect to do better in our spirits performance going into F '21. We have some specific commercial issues in markets like Germany where there were -- because of price increases, we have taken some short-term hits. I do believe the Europe team, you'll see sequential improvement in our share performance as we go into fiscal '21.

是的。所以只是關於歐洲的背景。一是由於我們的啤酒業務，我們在歐洲嚴重偏向內部部署。吉尼斯嚴重偏斜。如果你看一下我們最近幾個月的表現，啤酒的在家表現或場外表現正在改善。吉尼斯實際上在場外交易中獲得了份額。隨著交易量的恢復，我只是使用英國過去幾週的數據點，我們還看到吉尼斯在啤酒類別中的表現相對較好。所以我對吉尼斯感覺很好。在烈酒方面，我們的表現略遜於市場，但我們對進入 21 財年上半年充滿信心。我們有強大的計劃，良好的創新，並完全期望在 F '21 的精神表現方面做得更好。我們在德國等市場存在一些具體的商業問題——由於價格上漲，我們受到了一些短期打擊。我確實相信歐洲團隊，隨著我們進入 21 財年，您會看到我們的股票表現連續改善。

Our next question is Simon Hales from Citi.

我們的下一個問題是來自花旗銀行的 Simon Hales。

Just 2 or 3 for me as well, please. Can I just go back to your outlook comments just so I understand the messaging into the first half of next year clearly? I appreciate you're going to see some sequential improvement in the volume picture from Q4 into Q1 and Q2. But with regards to the margin development in the first half of the year, would you also say you expect to see a sequential improvement from the H2 level? Is that improvement relative to the sequential decline you saw in H2 on organic margins, at around sort net of 600, 700 basis points? Or is it in terms of the absolute margin level in the second half to pick up from the sort of -- from that level?

請給我也只有 2 或 3 個。我能否回到你的展望評論，以便我清楚地了解明年上半年的信息？我很感激你會看到從第四季度到第一季度和第二季度的成交量有所改善。但是關於今年上半年的利潤率發展，您是否還會說您希望看到 H2 水平的環比改善？這種改善是否與您在 H2 看到的有機利潤率連續下降有關，大約為 600、700 個基點？還是就下半年的絕對利潤率水平而言，從那種水平開始回升？

And then secondly, on stock levels. I think, Kathy, in the presentation, you talked about stock days in trade being up in a number of markets due to the reduced demand. Why don't you just expand a little bit on that? And I wonder, should we expect to see some further destocking in the first half, not only in travel retail, but perhaps around scotch whiskey in emerging markets?

其次，在庫存水平上。我想，凱西，在演講中，你談到由於需求減少，許多市場的貿易庫存天數都在增加。你為什麼不稍微擴展一下呢？我想知道，我們是否應該期望在上半年看到進一步的去庫存化，不僅是在旅遊零售領域，而且可能是在新興市場的蘇格蘭威士忌領域？

And then just a final quick one, if I can. Back at the Capital Markets Day last year, you talked about a further GBP 100 million, GBP 150 million of efficiency savings to come by the end of F '22. Is there any opportunity to accelerate some of those savings a little bit more quickly into the current fiscal year, please?

然後是最後一個快速的，如果可以的話。回到去年的資本市場日，你談到了進一步的 1 億英鎊，到 F '22 結束時將節省 1.5 億英鎊的效率。有沒有機會在當前財政年度中更快地加速其中一些節省，請問？

Shall I take the stock levels and maybe you can take one and three?

我可以拿庫存水平嗎，也許你可以拿一和三？

Sure.

當然。

Okay. So on the stock levels, we feel really good about where we closed the year. Clearly, the big variable on stock levels is forward demand, forward consumer demand, and we're tracking that very closely. And our sell-out culture and the data we have now has us moving very rapidly. We indicated global travel. It's really hard to call the recovery on global travel. And so that could be an area, we think, which is going to be much slower in coming back. So we will not sell into that channel until we start seeing end demand pick up.

好的。因此，在庫存水平上，我們對今年的收盤情況感覺非常好。顯然，庫存水平的最大變量是遠期需求，遠期消費者需求，我們正在密切跟踪。我們的銷售文化和我們現在擁有的數據讓我們的行動非常迅速。我們指出了全球旅行。很難將復蘇歸功於全球旅行。因此，我們認為，這可能是一個回歸速度要慢得多的領域。因此，在我們開始看到終端需求回升之前，我們不會向該渠道銷售。

In the rest of the emerging markets, I feel good about where we are on our stock levels. And we will continue to monitor it real time and adjust very quickly. So I'm not expecting destocking in other emerging markets in a big way happening. Unless, of course, end consumer demand really drops off, which we're not anticipating. So we're in good shape on the stock levels.

在其他新興市場，我對我們的庫存水平感到滿意。我們將繼續實時監控並迅速調整。因此，我預計其他新興市場不會大規模去庫存。當然，除非最終消費者需求真的下降，這是我們沒有預料到的。所以我們在庫存水平上處於良好狀態。

And then I'll go ahead and address, first of all, your question about our outlook comments. So we've clearly said as it relates to top line, that we're expecting to see sequential improvement in the first and the second quarter in the first half relative to what we saw in the fourth quarter in fiscal '20. As it relates to overall margin improvement, I do expect that absolute margin in the first half to be better than what we saw in the second half of fiscal '20. Obviously, I also commented that we continue to expect to see some pressure on a year-over-year basis.

然後我將繼續並首先解決您關於我們的展望評論的問題。因此，我們已經明確表示，與頂線相關，我們預計上半年第一季度和第二季度相對於 20 財年第四季度的情況將出現連續改善。由於它與整體利潤率的提高有關，我確實預計上半年的絕對利潤率會好於我們在 20 財年下半年看到的水平。顯然，我還評論說，我們繼續期望看到同比壓力。

And then you had asked about overall cost savings. What I'd say is, clearly, we've looked to continue to push hard on everyday efficiency. And during this COVID period, I'd say we especially scrubbed harder at what I would call discretionary spending. So we've tried to take the approach of, I'll call it, going to the paper on discretionary spending and do the spending that we think is critical to the business. So overall efficiencies, I would characterize, is actually running on the higher side, if not ahead of what I talked about on Capital Markets Day. Now the flip side of that is we've unfortunately seen the volume decline and that's causing negative gearing in the P&L. And I would just remind you that roughly 15% of our business is a beer business. In a place like Africa, 60% of our Africa business is a beer business. And so that business has, I'll call it, higher fixed costs within COGS. And so when volumes decline, we would see a bit more pressure in terms of negative leverage across the P&L.

然後您詢問了總體成本節約情況。我要說的是，很明顯，我們希望繼續努力提高日常效率。在這個 COVID 期間，我想說我們特別努力地清理我稱之為可自由支配的支出。因此，我們嘗試採用我稱之為可自由支配支出的方法，並進行我們認為對業務至關重要的支出。因此，我認為整體效率實際上是在更高的方面，如果不是在我在資本市場日談到的之前。現在，不幸的是，我們已經看到交易量下降，這導致損益表出現負扣稅。我只想提醒您，我們大約 15% 的業務是啤酒業務。在非洲這樣的地方，我們60%的非洲業務是啤酒業務。因此，我稱之為業務在 COGS 中具有更高的固定成本。因此，當交易量下降時，我們會看到整個損益表的負槓桿壓力更大。

Our next speaker is Olivier Nicolai from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一位演講者是來自高盛的 Olivier Nicolai。

Just a couple of questions, please, on e-commerce. You mentioned in the presentation you've seen some relaxation of regulation allowing you to do more e-commerce. In the U.S. specifically, what is the current business model that you're using? And how do you see things evolving as we come out of this crisis? And just lastly, can you remind us what's the percentage of your sales in e-commerce as a group, please?

關於電子商務，請問幾個問題。您在演示文稿中提到您已經看到監管有所放鬆，允許您開展更多電子商務。具體來說，在美國，您目前使用的商業模式是什麼？隨著我們走出這場危機，您如何看待事情的發展？最後，您能否提醒我們您作為一個整體在電子商務中的銷售額百分比是多少？

Olivier, the percentage of sales , firstly, is small. It's low single digit. But what I'd point to you is, if you look at our Q4 e-commerce sales relative to Q3, it doubled. So there's some accelerated growth, but we are far less penetrated than other consumer product categories, mostly because of the regulatory environment. Now some of those things are changing in markets. And we are seeing more access to e-commerce channels in Latin America, Africa, in addition to Europe and China.

奧利維爾，首先，銷售額的百分比很小。這是低個位數。但我要指出的是，如果你看一下我們的第四季度電子商務銷售額相對於第三季度的銷售額，它翻了一番。所以有一些加速增長，但我們的滲透率遠低於其他消費品類別，這主要是因為監管環境。現在，其中一些事情正在市場上發生變化。我們看到，除了歐洲和中國之外，拉丁美洲、非洲的電子商務渠道也越來越多。

On your point on the U.S. The U.S. system is still operating within

關於你關於美國的觀點美國系統仍在運行

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the business is running 4x, 4 times what they expected in the last few months. Now what this does is it takes its order from the consumer that picks up the product at a retail shop, a liquor store, and then delivers it. You also had retailers within states who are able to take e-commerce orders and deliver within the state to customers, and that business is growing rapidly, but it is from the liquor store to your home within the state. So we don't have national big players like Amazon, et cetera, in the alcohol category. It is very focused on liquor retailers and a few platforms like Drizly, and that business is growing. You also have a pick up at the store, it's growing, where people can place their orders electronically and drive by and have the product delivered at the stores so they don't have to enter the store. And you've seen in states like New Jersey, I mean, that has increased a lot. So the convenience and delivery to the home is -- has picked up in the U.S., but still very much within the framework of the 3 tiers.

該業務的運行速度是過去幾個月的 4 倍，是他們預期的 4 倍。現在，它所做的是接受消費者的訂單，消費者在零售店、酒類商店提貨，然後發貨。您在州內也有零售商能夠接受電子商務訂單並在州內交付給客戶，並且該業務增長迅速，但它是從酒類商店到您在州內的家。因此，在酒類領域，我們沒有亞馬遜等全國性大公司。它非常專注於酒類零售商和一些像 Drizly 這樣的平台，而且該業務正在增長。你也可以在商店取貨，它正在增長，人們可以在那里通過電子方式下訂單並開車經過並在商店交付產品，這樣他們就不必進入商店。你已經看到像新澤西這樣的州，我的意思是，這已經增加了很多。因此，便利性和送貨上門是——在美國有所回升，但仍然在 3 層的框架內。

And then one other thing I would think is the cocktail to go that's also been enabled in the U.S., which allows people to -- especially when they're ordering from a restaurant to not just pick up great food, but to pick up great cocktails was well.

然後我認為的另一件事是在美國也啟用了雞尾酒，這允許人們 - 特別是當他們從餐廳訂購時不僅可以挑選美味的食物，還可以挑選美味的雞尾酒很好。

Our next question comes from Trevor Stirling of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Trevor Stirling。

Just 2 from my side, please. The first one, Ivan, maybe could you give us a little more color in the U.S.? Shipments are running a little behind depletions. How far behind depletions were they? And that's now stabilizing. And the share trends you mentioned earlier, is that slightly where share performance coming from lower share gains from the Casamigos of this world? Or is it higher share losses from Smirnoff and Captain Morgan? And I guess, final question, can you just comment a little bit on the Indian run rate performance? Now we're through the lockdown, what's the state of demand in India at the moment?

請給我這邊的 2 個。第一個，伊万，也許你能給我們在美國多一點色彩嗎？出貨量有點落後於消耗。他們離耗盡還有多遠？現在正在穩定。你之前提到的股票趨勢，是來自這個世界的 Casamigos 較低的股票收益帶來的股票表現嗎？還是 Smirnoff 和 Captain Morgan 的股票損失更大？我想，最後一個問題，您能否對印度的運行率表現發表一些評論？現在我們已經通過封鎖，目前印度的需求狀況如何？

Sure. I'll take the U.S. questions and Kathy can handle India. So what we're seeing in the U.S., I would say, broadly, it's an industry, Trevor, that we think it's a little hard in the last couple of months, but our estimate is it's growing around 4% in value. I'm talking U.S. spirits. You saw our shipments were doing a bit. And I'd say our depletions were somewhere in between. So we are still slightly behind the market. And the main areas where we are losing spirit share is in vodka, Captain Morgan and a bit in Johnnie Walker, and Johnnie Walker is also linked to the lapping of White Walker from the year before. So that's broadly where we are. We have very focused plans that Debra and the team have on improving this picture as we go into fiscal '21. And we still have very some good momentum on Casamigos and Don Julio and Crown Royal, the share gainers. So that's how I would characterize that.

當然。我會回答美國的問題，凱西可以處理印度的問題。所以我們在美國看到的，我想說，從廣義上講，這是一個行業，特雷弗，我們認為過去幾個月有點困難，但我們估計它的價值增長了 4% 左右。我說的是美國烈酒。你看到我們的出貨量有所增加。我想說我們的消耗介於兩者之間。所以我們仍然略微落後於市場。我們失去精神份額的主要領域是伏特加、摩根船長和尊尼獲加，而尊尼獲加也與前一年懷特沃克的重疊有關。所以這就是我們所處的大致位置。在我們進入 21 財年時，Debra 和團隊制定了非常專注的計劃來改善這一情況。我們對 Casamigos、Don Julio 和 Crown Royal 的股票上漲者仍有很好的勢頭。這就是我的特徵。

And then if we just talk about India. As everyone is aware, they had a 6-week complete lockdown in terms of the alcohol beverage industry in its entirety, the production as well as overall sales. And so coming out of that, we continue to see good sequential improvement there, kind of May to June, and then especially into July. So July, really much stronger. So I would say we feel pretty good and confident that, that continued sequential improvement in India now that the whole kind of countrywide lockdown is over.

然後，如果我們只談論印度。眾所周知，他們對整個酒精飲料行業、生產和整體銷售進行了為期 6 週的全面封鎖。因此，我們繼續看到良好的連續改善，從 5 月到 6 月，然後尤其是到 7 月。所以七月，真的強多了。所以我想說我們感覺非常好並且有信心，既然整個全國范圍內的封鎖已經結束，印度的持續連續改善。

Our next question comes from Edward Mundy of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edward Mundy。

A few ones for me. The first one is capital return for fiscal '21. I think, Kathy, you mentioned in the pre-release that H1 '21 net results can be impacted given where the numbers are falling. As the Board thinks around dividends, are there any financial metrics that will help you provide a steer around the capital returns? For instance, if you hit 4x net debt-to-EBITDA.

幾個給我的。第一個是 21 財年的資本回報。我認為，凱西，你在預發布中提到，鑑於數字下降，H1 '21 的淨結果可能會受到影響。當董事會考慮股息時，是否有任何財務指標可以幫助您控制資本回報？例如，如果您達到 4 倍的淨債務與 EBITDA 比。

The second is on innovation, which has been an important driver of Diageo's growth over the last couple of years. We've seen some really good innovation. How does COVID-19 impacts your ability to launch innovations?

第二個是創新，這在過去幾年中一直是帝亞吉歐增長的重要驅動力。我們已經看到了一些非常好的創新。 COVID-19 如何影響您開展創新的能力？

And then the last one -- last one, Ivan, is on sustainability. You've got this paper-based Johnnie Walker bottle. And it's really interesting. You mentioned a near 2030 social environment structurally in target. Without getting away too much, can you talk about what the main changes will be following your 2015 to 2020 targets?

然後是最後一個——Ivan，最後一個是關於可持續性的。您有這個紙質尊尼獲加酒瓶。這真的很有趣。您在目標中提到了接近 2030 年的社會環境。話不多說，您能否談談您的 2015 年至 2020 年目標之後的主要變化是什麼？

Well, I'll go ahead and take the first question. So you would have seen our leverage ratio increased to 3.3x. And we have said that we target to maintain that ratio between 2.5 to 3x. We made the decision, our Board made the decision and we announced today, although this needs to get approved at our AGM, that we're maintaining our final dividend flat. And we earlier announced in April that we paused our share repurchase program as a result of that leverage increase that you've seen. And we've further said that program continues to remain paused in fiscal '21.

好吧，我會繼續回答第一個問題。所以你會看到我們的槓桿率增加到 3.3 倍。我們已經說過，我們的目標是將該比率保持在 2.5 到 3 倍之間。我們做出了決定，我們的董事會做出了決定，我們今天宣布，儘管這需要在我們的年度股東大會上獲得批准，但我們將維持我們的末期股息持平。我們早些時候在 4 月份宣布，由於您看到的槓桿增加，我們暫停了股票回購計劃。我們進一步表示，該計劃在 21 財年繼續暫停。

As you think about the impacts of COVID-19, clearly, it's had a huge impact in the fourth quarter, and we said we expect to see sequential improvement in the first quarter and the second quarter. But when we get to interims and report at that period of time, we'll be reporting a leverage ratio off of our 12-month trailing EBITDA, right? So that's going to take into consideration a 12-month period of time that will have been fully impacted by COVID. As a result, I expect our leverage ratio is going to peak at that point in time. And then we would see improvement as we go into the second half of fiscal '21 and into fiscal '22.

當你考慮 COVID-19 的影響時，很明顯，它在第四季度產生了巨大影響，我們說我們預計第一季度和第二季度會出現連續改善。但是當我們進入臨時報告並在那個時間段報告時，我們將報告我們 12 個月追踪 EBITDA 的槓桿率，對嗎？因此，這將考慮 12 個月的時間段，這段時間將受到 COVID 的全面影響。因此，我預計我們的槓桿率將在那個時間點達到峰值。然後，當我們進入 21 財年下半年和 22 財年時，我們會看到情況有所改善。

I kind of take a step back from that, Ed. And I'd say, if you look at the total financial picture for Diageo, I mean, we do have real financial strength. We're an A- rated company. We've taken actions to further bolster what was already a strong liquidity position. We've got GBP 5.3 billion of standby credit facilities. We ended the year with GBP 3.3 billion in cash. So I think we're in a quite good position to continue to make balanced decisions, I would say, with regard to shareholder return, but ensuring that we really support the ongoing investments in the business for the long term.

埃德，我有點退後一步。我想說，如果你看看帝亞吉歐的總體財務狀況，我的意思是，我們確實擁有真正的財務實力。我們是一家 A 級公司。我們已採取行動進一步加強本已強勁的流動性狀況。我們擁有 53 億英鎊的備用信貸額度。我們以 33 億英鎊的現金結束了這一年。因此，我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以繼續做出平衡的決定，我想說，關於股東回報，但要確保我們真正支持長期對業務的持續投資。

And Ed, on innovation, I'd say this is one of the areas we very quickly kind of reassessed our pipeline and our approach. And I mean, simply, what we are leaning in more to is big recruit and re-recruit innovation on big brands. And I'll give you an example. In the U.K. in the last few months, the line extensions on Gordon's Sicilian Lemon and Mediterranean Orange, we've had 3 of them. And literally, in the last 3 months, we've gained 7 -- I think, 8 points of market share in the U.K. with those launches. They're doing very well. There's a Captain Morgan line extension going into the U.S. or has gone into the U.S. So we're going back to big brands with innovation. Brands that need seeding and building and particularly on-trade support, we are delaying because this is not a time to be building, let's say, grow and go Irish whiskey in the U.S. when the on-trade is down. So we're slowing those down. And then we are looking at new opportunities. And as an example, the whole space of ready-to-serve cocktails and premix, we see as very attractive. And so we are -- we're doubling down on being much more ambitious on our goals there.

Ed，關於創新，我想說這是我們很快重新評估我們的管道和方法的領域之一。我的意思是，簡單地說，我們更傾向於對大品牌進行大規模招聘和再招聘創新。我會給你舉個例子。過去幾個月在英國，Gordon's Sicilian Lemon 和 Mediterranean Orange 的產品線擴展，我們有 3 個。從字面上看，在過去的 3 個月裡，我們已經獲得了 7 - 我認為，通過這些發布，我們在英國的市場份額增加了 8 個百分點。他們做得很好。有一條 Captain Morgan 產品線延伸進入美國或已經進入美國，所以我們將回到具有創新的大品牌。需要播種和建設，特別是貿易支持的品牌，我們正在推遲，因為現在不是建立的時候，比方說，當貿易下降時，在美國發展和銷售愛爾蘭威士忌。所以我們正在放慢速度。然後我們正在尋找新的機會。例如，即食雞尾酒和預混料的整個空間，我們認為非常有吸引力。所以我們 - 我們正在加倍努力實現我們在那裡的目標。

So Diageo has had a strong track record of innovation. We're not backing off. We're reshaping it to the times. And I feel confident going into fiscal '21, we have some pretty exciting things in the pipeline, which should help our performance.

因此，帝亞吉歐在創新方面有著良好的記錄。我們沒有退縮。我們正在重塑它以適應時代。而且我對進入 21 財年充滿信心，我們正在準備一些非常令人興奮的事情，這應該有助於我們的表現。

On sustainability, as you pointed out, yes, the Johnnie Walker bottle was -- got a lot of excitement around it, the paper bottle and Johnnie Walker. Also, we -- our Bulleit distillery, the new one, is carbon-neutral, which is really a big first as well. You will see in -- we're just coming to the end of a period in 2020 where we have set our goals 5 years ago, and you see the results with our annual report, we've done very well. I'm really proud of our performance in carbon and water. Going forward, in the 2030 goals, it's going to be in 3 areas. One is sustainability. So carbon water recyclability, packaging, the standard metrics there. The second area is in inclusion and diversity. And the third is on positive drinking. And on all 3, we are setting, I'd say, pretty ambitious goals. Diageo leads in this area. We want to continue to lead. And later in the second half, we will be releasing our 2030 objectives, but I can assure you they are going to be ambitious. And they are very core to our strategy, so we are putting the resources and efforts behind it.

關於可持續性，正如你所指出的，是的，尊尼獲加的瓶子——紙瓶和尊尼獲加讓人們興奮不已。此外，我們 - 我們的 Bulleit 釀酒廠，新的，是碳中和的，這也是一個很大的第一個。你會看到——我們剛剛結束 2020 年，我們在 5 年前設定了目標，你會在我們的年度報告中看到結果，我們做得很好。我為我們在碳和水方面的表現感到非常自豪。展望未來，在 2030 年的目標中，它將分為 3 個領域。一是可持續性。所以碳水可回收性、包裝、標準指標都在那裡。第二個領域是包容性和多樣性。第三個是積極飲酒。在所有這三個方面，我們都設定了非常雄心勃勃的目標。帝亞吉歐在這一領域處於領先地位。我們想繼續領先。在下半年晚些時候，我們將發布我們的 2030 年目標，但我可以向你保證，它們將是雄心勃勃的。它們是我們戰略的核心，因此我們正在為它投入資源和努力。

And Kathy, just to come back to the first question. There's no sort of hard leverage target that could preclude you from paying a dividend? I mean you look at a number, including the run rate, your liquidity is a bit clear. There's no high leverage target that you're offering the dividends at this point?

凱西，回到第一個問題。沒有任何可以阻止您支付股息的硬性槓桿目標？我的意思是你看一個數字，包括運行率，你的流動性有點清楚。您此時提供股息沒有高槓桿目標嗎？

No. In fact, that I would have said, if you went back into Diageo's past history, at about the time that we acquired the USL business in India, we also would have exceeded our leverage targets at that time. So we will take a holistic view. And a big part of that is just getting more data and information on the pace and overall slope of the improvement and positive trajectory that we'll be seeing in the business as the on-trade starts to open up. So that's something we'll obviously be keeping in mind. And we said that the capital return decision will continue to be under review throughout fiscal '21.

不，事實上，我會說，如果你回顧帝亞吉歐過去的歷史，大約在我們收購印度 USL 業務的時候，我們當時也會超過我們的槓桿目標。因此，我們將採取整體觀點。其中很大一部分只是獲得更多關於改進的速度和整體斜率的數據和信息，以及我們將在貿易開始開放時在業務中看到的積極軌跡。所以這顯然是我們要牢記的事情。我們說過，資本回報決定將在整個 21 財年繼續接受審查。

Our next question comes from Pinar Ergun, Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pinar Ergun。

I have a quick follow-up to Simon and Trevor's question on the U.S. With depletions running ahead of shipments, should we expect some catch-up in H1? And do you see wholesalers stocking up ahead of potential tariff risk? Another quick one on the U.S. Did demand for your products benefit at all from the government stimulus plans year-to-date? And do you see down-trading as a risk at all going forward? Or would you see continuation of solid demand in the U.S.? And finally, a quick one on India. How has your long-term view on the growth potential over this market change? What was the key driver behind the impairment charge you've taken?

我對 Simon 和 Trevor 關於美國的問題進行了快速跟進。隨著發貨前的耗盡，我們是否應該期待 H1 的一些追趕？您是否看到批發商在潛在的關稅風險之前囤貨？另一個關於美國的快速報告。年初至今，對你們產品的需求是否從政府刺激計劃中受益？您是否認為向下交易是未來的風險？還是您會看到美國持續的強勁需求？最後，快速介紹一下印度。您如何看待這一市場變化帶來的增長潛力？您收取的減值費用背後的主要驅動因素是什麼？

Okay. I'll handle the U.S. and then turn to Kathy on India, Pinar. Yes. So on U.S. spirits, firstly, I would not -- the depletions being ahead of shipments is on the margin. So I -- this is not a big deal. Where -- so I wouldn't factor -- the key factor that's going to be important is consumer offtake in the second half, and that's what we are very focused on because the -- we are encouraged by the trends we continue to see in the U.S. And you can see it in the overall industry trends and Nielsen and NABCA remained strong.

好的。我將處理美國問題，然後轉向 Kathy 關於印度的問題，Pinar。是的。因此，關於美國烈酒，首先，我不會——發貨前的消耗量很小。所以我——這沒什麼大不了的。在哪裡 - 所以我不會考慮 - 重要的關鍵因素是下半年的消費者購買量，這就是我們非常關注的因為 - 我們對我們繼續看到的趨勢感到鼓舞美國您可以從整體行業趨勢中看到這一點，尼爾森和 NABCA 仍然保持強勁。

To your point on demand and how much of it is supported by stimulus, I mean there's no question there is an impact that consumers have the spending power right now. And while they are stuck at home, we are seeing, both in food and drink and entertaining generally, that there is a willingness to spend. I would point to previous economic recessions in our end. And the global financial crisis to me is the best set of data to look at where there was a severe impact. And what we saw was a very short period of slowdown and down-trading that happened. It was literally 2 or 3 quarters. And right now, we're not seeing down-trading. In fact, if you look at U.S. industry data, the higher price points are the ones that are growing the fastest. But could we see some? I'd say we could see it moderate, but I don't expect it to be a sustained trend because the main source of our growth from spirits in the U.S. is still spirits growing faster than beer and wine. And younger Americans in the 21-plus are consuming much more spirits. And in the time of lockdown where -- cocktails at home have only gone up. And so I see the long-term trend here in terms of premium spirits brands continuing. We could have some short-term impact as -- if consumer spending gets severely hit. But our history would say that that's not a -- it's not -- I don't see it as a sustained or structural trend. It could be short-term for a little while.

關於你的需求點以及其中有多少是由刺激措施支持的，我的意思是毫無疑問，消費者現在擁有消費能力會產生影響。雖然他們被困在家裡，但我們看到，無論是在飲食方面還是在一般娛樂方面，他們都願意花錢。最後，我會指出之前的經濟衰退。對我來說，全球金融危機是最好的數據集，可以用來了解哪些地方受到了嚴重影響。我們看到的是發生了非常短的放緩和低價交易。這實際上是 2 或 3 個季度。而現在，我們沒有看到降價交易。事實上，如果你看看美國的行業數據，價格越高的點增長最快。但是我們能看到一些嗎？我想說我們可以看到它溫和，但我不認為它是一個持續的趨勢，因為我們在美國烈酒增長的主要來源仍然是烈酒，其增長速度比啤酒和葡萄酒快。 21 歲以上的年輕美國人消費的烈酒要多得多。在封鎖期間——家裡的雞尾酒只漲了。因此，我看到了優質烈酒品牌持續發展的長期趨勢。如果消費者支出受到嚴重打擊，我們可能會產生一些短期影響。但我們的歷史會告訴我們，這不是——不是——我不認為這是一種持續或結構性的趨勢。它可能是短期的一段時間。

And then I'd say specifically with regard to India, we continue to have a lot of confidence in the long-term opportunity that we have in India. More recently, we would have seen in the first half, GDP is starting to flow in India. So even ahead of the pandemic impact, we were starting to see the economy slow a bit. So that softened our results in the first half. India was up about 2% in the first half. That is later than what we think the potential of the market and our business is in India. And then as we've already mentioned in the second half, literally, the entire outside industry was closed down for 6 weeks. So their impact from COVID in the second half was very significant and much more material than you would have seen at the total Diageo level. We obviously had to take that into consideration, and you've seen the impairment that we've taken. But it doesn't change our view on India at all for the long term. The long-term trends there in terms of population growth over time, per capita, income growth, enabling more people to afford our brands, both our international spirits and as well as our Prestige and Above brand. And really importantly, the people in India just love whiskey. And that really goes positively for the long term for our business. So I would say, over the long term, we continue to be very boorish, but that's a business that's going to be good for Diageo, good for its shareholders.

然後我要特別說到印度，我們繼續對我們在印度擁有的長期機會充滿信心。最近，我們會在上半年看到，印度的 GDP 開始流動。因此，即使在大流行影響之前，我們也開始看到經濟有所放緩。所以這軟化了我們上半年的結果。印度上半年上漲約 2%。這比我們認為市場潛力和我們的業務在印度要晚。然後正如我們在下半年已經提到的，從字面上看，整個外部行業都關閉了 6 週。因此，他們在下半年受到 COVID 的影響非常顯著，而且比您在整個帝亞吉歐級別看到的要重要得多。我們顯然必須考慮到這一點，你已經看到了我們所採取的減值措施。但從長遠來看，這根本不會改變我們對印度的看法。隨著時間的推移，人口增長、人均收入、收入增長等方面的長期趨勢使更多人能夠負擔得起我們的品牌，包括我們的國際烈酒以及我們的 Prestige and Above 品牌。真正重要的是，印度人就是喜歡威士忌。從長遠來看，這確實對我們的業務產生了積極影響。所以我想說，從長遠來看，我們仍然非常粗魯，但這是一項對帝亞吉歐有利的業務，對其股東有利。

Our next caller -- our next question is from Chris Pitcher, Redburn.

我們的下一個來電者——我們的下一個問題來自克里斯·皮徹，Redburn。

I have a couple of questions and a clarification, please. Firstly, on China, it looks like you had a very dramatic stock reduction in the final quarter there. Could you give us confidence that you've now cleared out the excess Chinese New Year stock and that you should start to see the recovery early in the new half? And could you give us a feel for a sense of your Baiju market share is doing?

我有幾個問題，請澄清一下。首先，在中國，看起來你在最後一個季度的庫存大幅減少。您能否讓我們相信您現在已經清理了過剩的春節庫存，並且您應該會在下半年早些時候開始看到復蘇？您能否讓我們了解一下您的白酒市場份額正在做什麼？

Then secondly, on the U.S., you mentioned your price/mix is running ahead of the industry. It does look like it faded a bit in the second half despite what I would expect would be the period with reduced promotion. And we've been here in the past before where you've priced mix ahead of the industry and driven good margin expansion, but market share has suffered. How should we think about your relative price position? You're comfortable with the price gaps on some brands or going into the softer economic backdrop. Should we expect increased promo in the new financial year?

其次，關於美國，您提到您的價格/組合領先於行業。它看起來確實在下半年有點消退，儘管我預計會是晉升減少的時期。我們過去曾來過這裡，你已經在行業之前定價組合併推動了良好的利潤率擴張，但市場份額卻受到了影響。我們應該如何考慮你的相對價格位置？您對某些品牌的價格差距或進入疲軟的經濟背景感到滿意。我們應該期待新財政年度的促銷活動增加嗎？

And then just finally, a clarification. I think you said you wouldn't ship to global travel retail until you saw a recovery. I assume you must be selling something into global travel retail. Or is it -- are you literally not shipping anything at the moment?

最後，澄清一下。我想你說過在你看到復甦之前你不會向全球旅遊零售業發貨。我猜你一定是在向全球旅遊零售業銷售一些東西。或者是 - 你現在真的沒有運送任何東西嗎？

I'll take 2 and 3, Chris. Chris, global travel, yes, it's a trickle. I don't know. Very little because, clearly, I mean there's a dramatic reduction in passenger numbers. So we would -- we're ready to respond quickly as it picks up. But right now, we're not being -- virtually, no -- very little business.

我要 2 和 3，克里斯。克里斯，全球旅行，是的，它是涓涓細流。我不知道。很少，因為很明顯，我的意思是乘客人數急劇減少。所以我們會 - 我們準備好在它開始時迅速做出回應。但現在，我們並沒有——實際上，沒有——業務很少。

On the U.S., well, we're very -- one of the things I feel really good about is the NRM capabilities that we had built in the team, and they've been at in the last 18 months. And the second thing I would say is we are hyper local in our focus in the U.S. We now have data down to the zip code, to the store level. And so the analytics and data, we are putting behind execution, behind pricing. And the management of mix has moved significantly in the last couple of years. And we've got to get the right balance of share, price, mix, margins. And I feel very good about our capability and focus here within our team and working with our distributors to get it right. We have eased up some lower ROI programs that we used to do in the past. And we are leaning in more to ensuring our execution at the point of sale in terms of visibility and display and the launch of innovation and the pace at which we are measuring our execution at stores now with our EDGE 365 capabilities. All of that is significantly ahead. So our focus going forward is to get that right balance of price, mix and share. And I'd say that managing it at a very micro and very sophisticated level now. And I feel good about going into '21 seeing improvement in our share performance, as I talked about earlier.

在美國，我們非常 - 我覺得非常好的一件事是我們在團隊中建立的 NRM 能力，他們在過去 18 個月裡一直在這樣做。我要說的第二件事是，我們在美國的重點是超本地化的。我們現在有數據到郵政編碼，到商店級別。因此，我們將分析和數據置於執行和定價之後。在過去的幾年裡，混合管理髮生了重大變化。我們必須在份額、價格、組合和利潤之間取得適當的平衡。我對我們團隊的能力和專注感到非常滿意，並與我們的分銷商一起努力做到正確。我們已經簡化了過去使用的一些較低投資回報率的項目。我們更傾向於確保我們在銷售點的執行力，包括可見性和展示以及創新的推出，以及我們現在使用 EDGE 365 功能衡量我們在商店執行力的速度。所有這些都遙遙領先。因此，我們未來的重點是在價格、組合和份額之間取得適當的平衡。我會說現在在非常微觀和非常複雜的層面上管理它。正如我之前談到的那樣，進入 21 年看到我們的股票表現有所改善，我感覺很好。

And then specifically, as it relates to China and overall stock reduction. So our Shui Jing Fang business has reported publicly. And so you would see that in, I'll call it, our third quarter and fourth quarter. Their first quarter and second quarter top line was down as we look to reduce stock and trade. So for the first quarter -- our third quarter, the top line is down 22%, more like 90% in their second quarter, our fourth quarter. And that was all about reducing stock and trade so that they could basically kind of end what our second half was in good stead in terms of the stocks that remained in stock and trade. So they made commentary on their call about ending the half with stock levels closer to kind of 2018, 2019 levels. So I think they're feeling very good about where they ended stock and trade.

然後具體來說，因為它與中國和整體庫存減少有關。所以我們水井坊的生意就公開報導了。所以你會看到，我稱之為我們的第三季度和第四季度。由於我們希望減少庫存和交易，他們第一季度和第二季度的收入有所下降。因此，對於第一季度——我們的第三季度，收入下降了 22%，在他們的第二季度，也就是我們的第四季度，收入下降了 90%。這就是減少庫存和貿易，這樣他們就可以基本上結束我們下半年在庫存和貿易中保持良好狀態的情況。因此，他們對關於以接近 2018 年、2019 年水平的庫存水平結束一半的呼籲發表評論。所以我認為他們對結束股票和交易的地方感覺很好。

And I would have said the same thing overall for our scotch business, and that we're beginning to see, especially the deluxe part of our scotch business now, pickup in China. And overall, the scotch business in Taiwan, which is reported in our Greater China market, actually, is very resilient during this period of time.

對於我們的蘇格蘭威士忌業務，我也會說同樣的話，而且我們開始看到，特別是現在我們蘇格蘭威士忌業務的豪華部分，在中國取貨。總的來說，台灣的蘇格蘭威士忌業務，據報導在我們的大中華區市場，實際上在這段時間內非常有彈性。

And then finally, I think you asked a question about our guide view kind of market share of one thing I would say is if you look across the industry in this most recent period of time, the price point sort of at this RMB 600 level and below has not performed as well as some of the higher price points. And our business participates in the price point of the RMB 300 to RMB 600 level. That's in part because bank risk and especially, I'd say, business occasions have not yet picked up to the same degree as other occasions. But if you see how our business was performing kind of ahead of this period of time, we were gaining very strong share. And so I would say we're very confident that we'll get back to that place pretty quickly.

最後，我想你問了一個關於我們對市場份額的指導意見的問題，我想說的是，如果你在最近一段時間內縱觀整個行業，價格點大約在 600 元人民幣的水平，並且下面的表現不如一些較高的價格點。而我們的業務參與價位在人民幣300元到人民幣600元的水平。這部分是因為銀行風險，尤其是，我想說，商業場合還沒有達到與其他場合相同的程度。但如果你看到我們的業務在這段時間之前的表現如何，我們就會獲得非常大的份額。所以我想說我們非常有信心我們會很快回到那個地方。

Our next question comes from Nik Oliver at UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Nik Oliver。

It's Nik here. Well, 2, actually. One, the first is an extension of Pinar's question on the U.S. And I guess if we look back to the financial crisis, I guess that the U.S. market held up fairly well volume wise. I think it's like 2%, 2.5%, if we look at NABCA. Would that be kind of a sensible run rate to assume going forward?

我是尼克。嗯，2，實際上。一，第一個是 Pinar 關於美國的問題的延伸。我想如果我們回顧金融危機，我想美國市場在交易量方面表現相當不錯。如果我們看一下 NABCA，我認為大概是 2%、2.5%。假設這是一個合理的運行率嗎？

I would say based on current conditions and what we see, the U.S. spirits market showing kind of modest volume growth and little better value growth will continue, yes. So -- and as I said, the biggest source of that volume is coming -- are the beer and wine, like it's growing faster than that. So the occasions are shifting. So we remain confident about the long-term consistent trend of growth in the U.S. spirits market. And as I said earlier, could you have a quarter or 2 if things -- if the economy really gets tough and spending gets constrained heavily? You could see some slowdown and some down-trading, but we don't see that sustaining. And yes, so I'd say that's a reasonable assumption, that we will continue with low single-digit volume growth.

我想說，根據目前的情況和我們所看到的情況，美國烈酒市場呈現出適度的銷量增長，而價值增長將繼續下去，是的。所以——正如我所說，這一數量的最大來源即將到來——是啤酒和葡萄酒，就像它的增長速度比這更快。因此，情況正在發生變化。因此，我們對美國烈酒市場的長期持續增長趨勢充滿信心。正如我之前所說，如果經濟真的變得艱難並且支出受到嚴重限制，你能有一個季度或兩個季度嗎？你可能會看到一些放緩和一些低價交易，但我們認為這種情況不會持續。是的，所以我想說這是一個合理的假設，我們將繼續保持低個位數的銷量增長。

Okay. And then one final one from me, please. It's -- of the scotch portfolio. And you called out obviously Lagavulin, the malts doing very well. And I guess, obviously, the blends, obviously, then comping with the launch of White Walker last year. And how are you thinking about like malts versus blends over the next 12 months?

好的。請給我最後一個。這是 - 蘇格蘭威士忌組合。你顯然叫出了 Lagavulin，麥芽威士忌做得很好。而且我想，很明顯，混合，很明顯，然後與去年 White Walker 的推出相提並論。在接下來的 12 個月裡，您如何看待麥芽威士忌與混合威士忌？

Are you talking about the U.S. or overall?

你是說美國還是整體？

Yes. Sorry. U.S. Sorry. U.S., yes.

是的。對不起。美國對不起。美國，是的。

Yes. So I'd say we have a big focus clearly on our Malts business as well as on Johnnie Walker and Buchanans and the blends business. In the early stages of the COVID lockdown consumer habits, American whiskey has done better than scotch and in part because scotch is more about -- the malts are more about deferment. And we also skewed to the on-trade in many of these brands. So -- but we've got to focus on really getting Johnnie Walker coming back in the last few weeks, the share performance is a little better. And so we've got big plans on the brand. And single malt, I mean, continues to be positive, and we expect that to continue as well.

是的。所以我想說我們非常關注我們的麥芽業務以及尊尼獲加和布坎南以及混合業務。在 COVID 封鎖消費者習慣的早期階段，美國威士忌比蘇格蘭威士忌做得更好，部分原因是蘇格蘭威士忌更多的是——麥芽威士忌更多的是延緩。而且我們還偏向於許多這些品牌的貿易。所以 - 但我們必須專注於真正讓 Johnnie Walker 在過去幾週回歸，股票表現要好一些。所以我們對品牌有很大的計劃。單一麥芽威士忌，我的意思是，繼續保持積極，我們希望這種情況也能繼續下去。

Our next question comes from Alicia Forry of Investec.

我們的下一個問題來自 Investec 的 Alicia Forry。

Ivan and Kathy, 3 questions from me, please. The first one, on the U.S. You mentioned distributor destocking in the U.S., but we've also heard from many consumer companies in alcohol and in other categories that U.S. retailers are also destocking. So I was wondering if you can give us your assessment of the U.S. landscape over the near term.

Ivan 和 Kathy，請問我 3 個問題。第一個，關於美國你提到了美國的經銷商去庫存，但我們也從許多酒類和其他類別的消費品公司那裡聽說美國零售商也在去庫存。所以我想知道你是否可以給我們你對美國近期前景的評估。

And then secondly, beer trends at the end of the H2 period. Some peers have reported significant improvements around June. Have you seen a similar development?

其次，H2 期末的啤酒趨勢。一些同行報告稱，6 月份左右出現了顯著改善。你見過類似的發展嗎？

And then finally, on excise. You mentioned the excise in India. Are there any other key markets where there is a risk of excise or other unfavorable regulatory developments over the near term?

最後，消費稅。你提到了印度的消費稅。是否有任何其他主要市場在短期內存在消費稅或其他不利監管發展的風險？

Thank you. I'll take the U.S. and excise and I'll let -- and Kathy take the beer question. I think broadly for the U.S., distributor and retailer stock levels are normal, where they should be. So I don't see a -- if your question is, are there going to be big changes going forward in stock levels in the trade on the spirits side? I'd say, no. They're pretty stable.

謝謝。我會接受美國和消費稅，我會讓——凱西回答啤酒問題。我認為從廣義上講，對於美國來說，分銷商和零售商的庫存水平是正常的，它們應該在這個水平。所以我沒有看到 - 如果你的問題是，烈酒方面的貿易庫存水平是否會發生重大變化？我會說，不。他們很穩定。

On excise, we've not seen -- India had a few states where just jacked up the excise when they opened up, and many of them have reversed the duty increases. Generally, I'd say, so far, we have not seen significant changes. One of the things I'd say that's very much in the message we are getting across the government is the hospitality industry is so critical to the recovery of the economy. 1 in 10 jobs in the world, and in most countries, sit in the hospitality industry. It's mostly young people. And this is not a time to be penalized in the hospitality industry. And I think that message is landing. There's far more appreciation for what bars and restaurants and pubs mean to the economy and to society now probably than pre-COVID. And we and the industry are working with bars and restaurants, and hotels are really getting that message through to governments.

在消費稅方面，我們還沒有看到——印度有幾個州在開放時剛剛提高了消費稅，其中許多州已經取消了關稅的增加。一般來說，我想說，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到重大變化。我要說的一件事是我們從政府收到的信息中非常重要的一點是酒店業對經濟復甦至關重要。在世界上，在大多數國家，每 10 個工作崗位中就有 1 個在酒店業。這主要是年輕人。現在不是酒店業受到懲罰的時候。我認為這個消息正在落地。與 COVID 之前相比，現在人們更欣賞酒吧、餐館和酒館對經濟和社會的意義。我們和這個行業正在與酒吧和餐館合作，酒店確實正在將這一信息傳達給政府。

Okay. And then as it relates to beer, I would say you have to look at the specifics of our beer footprint because Europe and Africa, it's the largest, kind of overwhelming majority. Kind of 2/3 of the overall beer business are in those 2 large regions. And so what we see is the improvement in our beer business as the on-trade opens up because both of those regions are also heavily weighted to the on-trade. So we mentioned Europe, we're about 50% weighted to the on-trade, but our beer business would be even more heavily weighted than that given how popular Guinness is in Europe specifically. And then similarly, in our Africa business, you've got countries like Kenya where some of their keg is a very strong part of that business, and it would be over 90% kind of weighted into the on-trade, and so very much tied to the on-trade of malt. I'd say when you dissect this on a market-by-market basis, the impacts of COVID and the closing of the on-trade was very different market by market. And it kind of came to Africa and Latin America later, right, than it landed in Europe. And so as we've seen on-trade starts to open, we see that improvement coming through our beer business. But it's very market specific. And we would certainly expect now that the on-trade is opening up more broadly across markets, that we would see that sequential improvement in beer as we talked about for the overall company.

好的。然後就啤酒而言，我想說你必須看看我們啤酒足蹟的細節，因為歐洲和非洲是最大的，佔絕大多數。大約 2/3 的啤酒業務都在這兩個大地區。因此，我們看到的是，隨著在線交易的開放，我們的啤酒業務有所改善，因為這兩個地區也都非常重視在線交易。所以我們提到了歐洲，我們對貿易的權重約為 50%，但考慮到吉尼斯在歐洲的流行程度，我們的啤酒業務的權重會更高。然後類似地，在我們的非洲業務中，你有像肯尼亞這樣的國家，他們的一些小桶是該業務的一個非常重要的部分，並且超過 90% 的重量都在貿易中，所以非常多與麥芽的貿易有關。我想說的是，當你逐個市場地剖析這一點時，COVID 的影響和交易結束的情況因市場而異。它到達非洲和拉丁美洲的時間比到達歐洲要晚，對吧。因此，當我們看到貿易開始開放時，我們看到我們的啤酒業務正在改善。但這是非常特定於市場的。我們當然希望，現在貿易正在跨市場更廣泛地開放，我們會看到啤酒的連續改善，正如我們為整個公司所談論的那樣。

Our next question comes from Nico Von Stackelberg from Liberum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Liberum 的 Nico Von Stackelberg。

Can I just summarize here? It sounds like you're saying that you do expect modest recessionary environment and maybe some down-trading for a bit of time. But the recovery of the on-trade should certainly overwhelm any temporary impacts from recession when down-trading?

我可以在這裡總結一下嗎？聽起來您是在說您確實預計會出現適度的衰退環境，並且可能會在一段時間內進行一些低價交易。但是，當交易減少時，在交易中的複蘇肯定會壓倒經濟衰退帶來的任何暫時影響嗎？

My second question is on just the growth rates. Could you provide me with your growth rates for Q4, how you finished Q4 and the start of Q1? Anything for short term, but it would be interesting to hear.

我的第二個問題只是關於增長率。你能告訴我你第四季度的增長率，你是如何完成第四季度和第一季度開始的嗎？任何短期的，但聽到它會很有趣。

And then finally, I'm not sure if you'll give me the answer. But I'd be curious to hear if you have any comment on consensus for FY '21. So you can see what we can see. But do you think it's achievable? And yes, what's your thoughts on consensus?

最後，我不確定你是否會給我答案。但我很想知道您是否對 21 財年的共識有任何評論。所以你能看到我們能看到的。但你認為這是可以實現的嗎？是的，您對共識有何看法？

And so clearly, what we're saying is we talk about sequential improvement to our top line in the first quarter and the second quarter of this fiscal half, we are saying that while we are expecting some impacts from both recessions overall, impacting different markets differently and some level of down-trading, that we think volumes coming back are going to overcome those other impacts. Hence, the sequential improvement we expect to see coming from the fourth quarter. As it relates to kind of overall what does our fourth quarter look like, top line overall for the half was down 23%. And for the fourth quarter, it was closer to 40%. And then specifically, as it relates to the first quarter, we're not giving out monthly numbers for the quarter. I would just go back and again tell you we've clearly already seen an improvement in terms of July relative to June. And we'd expect overall the first quarter to sequentially be better than what we saw in the fourth quarter.

很明顯，我們要說的是，我們談論的是本財年第一季度和第二季度收入的連續改善，我們說的是，雖然我們預計這兩次衰退都會產生一些影響，但會影響不同的市場不同的是，某種程度的降價交易，我們認為回升的交易量將克服其他影響。因此，我們預計第四季度會出現環比改善。由於它與我們第四季度的總體情況有關，上半年的總體收入下降了 23%。而在第四季度，這一比例接近 40%。然後具體來說，因為它與第一季度有關，我們不會給出該季度的月度數字。我只想回去再告訴你，我們已經清楚地看到 7 月相對於 6 月有所改善。我們預計第一季度總體上會比我們在第四季度看到的要好。

Okay. And on consensus?

好的。並達成共識？

We're not giving specific guidance, so I'm not going to comment on consensus.

我們沒有給出具體的指導，所以我不會對共識發表評論。

Our next question comes from Nikhil Chandak from Landmark Family Investment Office.

我們的下一個問題來自 Landmark Family Investment Office 的 Nikhil Chandak。

I have 2 questions basically. One was on the U.S. market. Clearly, the hard seltzer market there is booming and taking significant share from traditional markets. I understand we don't really consider that as a focus opportunity. I was just wondering why -- any specific reasons why we've not looked at the hard seltzers market in the U.S. and try to expand that?

我基本上有兩個問題。一個是在美國市場上。顯然，那裡的硬蘇打水市場正在蓬勃發展，並從傳統市場中搶走了很大的份額。我知道我們並沒有真正將其視為重點機會。我只是想知道為什麼 - 為什麼我們沒有研究美國的硬蘇打水市場並嘗試擴大它的任何具體原因？

And the second one was follow-up to some earlier questions. China market share -- or China share in our total revenues is, say, less than 5%. Do you think this grows over a period of time? And anything specific that we still have to do where China really becomes a more significant part of overall business pie?

第二個問題是對之前一些問題的跟進。中國市場份額——或者說中國在我們總收入中的份額不到 5%。你認為這會隨著時間的推移而增長嗎？在中國真正成為整體業務蛋糕中更重要的一部分的情況下，我們還需要做些什麼具體的事情？

Sure. I'll take these. In the U.S., as we haven't talked about it much on the call, Diageo Beer Company which sells Guinness and beers and FMB and seltzers, we have a line of seltzers, is doing really well, right? It's among the fastest-growing beer companies in the U.S. right now. And we have a small position in seltzer, but we have deliberately decided not to make a big investment into that category because, quite frankly, we have better places to invest in the U.S. when we look across our total portfolio of beer and spirits. But we're clearly benefiting from the trend right now, and you see it in our beer business performance -- or the beer company performance in the U.S. We have taken the seltzers into Europe. They're in the U.K. and in Ireland right now, that's of lineup. So we are participating in that sector, but not making it a big strategic priority for investment.

當然。我會拿這些。在美國，由於我們在電話會議上沒有過多討論，Diageo Beer Company 銷售健力士黑啤、啤酒、FMB 和蘇打水，我們有一系列蘇打水，做得很好，對吧？它是目前美國發展最快的啤酒公司之一。我們在 seltzer 中的倉位很小，但我們有意決定不對該類別進行大筆投資，因為坦率地說，當我們審視我們的啤酒和烈酒的總投資組合時，我們在美國有更好的投資地點。但我們現在顯然正從這一趨勢中受益，你可以從我們的啤酒業務表現中看到這一點——或者美國啤酒公司的表現。我們已經將蘇打水帶入了歐洲。他們現在在英國和愛爾蘭，這就是陣容。因此，我們正在參與該領域，但並未將其作為投資的重要戰略重點。

China is -- we remain -- to answer your question, yes, I expect China to keep becoming a bigger part of Diageo. And our 2 main businesses there, Baiju has a very good runway ahead of it, and we fully expect that to be a business that gets back on a steady trajectory of growth. And we're very encouraged by the early signs on scotch whiskey, and we are building the top end of scotch whiskey. When I say early signs the last few years where the interest in scotch at the top end, super deluxe and malt is really building very nicely. And even in this very challenging period, our scotch whiskey business in Mainland China grew. And in fact, if you look at e-commerce, scotch whiskey outperforms other forms of international spirits on e-commerce platforms as well. So long term, I'd say China should be a very attractive growth engine for the company.

中國 - 我們仍然 - 回答你的問題，是的，我希望中國繼續成為帝亞吉歐的重要組成部分。我們在那裡的 2 項主要業務，Baiju 前面有一條非常好的跑道，我們完全預計這將是一項回到穩定增長軌道的業務。我們對蘇格蘭威士忌的早期跡象感到非常鼓舞，我們正在打造頂級蘇格蘭威士忌。當我說過去幾年的早期跡象時，人們對高端、超級豪華和麥芽威士忌的興趣真的非常好。即使在這個充滿挑戰的時期，我們在中國大陸的蘇格蘭威士忌業務仍在增長。事實上，如果你看看電子商務，蘇格蘭威士忌在電子商務平台上的表現也優於其他形式的國際烈酒。從長遠來看，我認為中國應該是公司非常有吸引力的增長引擎。

Okay. This is the last question?

好的。這是最後一個問題？

Our last question comes from Richard Withagen from Kepler.

我們的最後一個問題來自開普勒的 Richard Withagen。

Yes. I have 2, please. First of all, in your prepared remarks, you talked about leveraging malts.com and thebar.com. Can you give some more details what initiatives you take in this area and how that benefits your brand portfolios?

是的。我有 2 個。首先，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了利用 malts.com 和 thebar.com。您能否更詳細地說明您在這一領域採取了哪些舉措，以及這對您的品牌組合有何好處？

And then the second question I have, as you mentioned Radar, your tool to project market demand. Can you talk about what kind of underlying data go into radar and if the sensitivities to this underlying data in the various regions are very different?

然後我有第二個問題，正如你提到的雷達，你的預測市場需求的工具。你能談談什麼樣的基礎數據進入雷達，以及不同地區對這些基礎數據的敏感性是否有很大不同？

Sure. Firstly, on, I'd say, digital commerce more broadly, the posture the company is taking is we want to be a leader here in the shaping of digital commerce in beverage alcohol. And so we have a number of initiatives, including working with the big platforms, working with retailers. And as you point out, we have some direct-to-consumer platforms like malts.com and bar.com. I'd say they're still small. We're very much in experimenting mode in markets in Europe and Brazil, et cetera. And we're doing it for learning, and we will clearly learn and scale up from there. But if I look at what we're doing in Europe and China and even in the U.S. through this 3-tier system, we're really building our digital commerce capabilities and moving very rapidly in that area. We're investing behind it because we do believe it's going to grow faster than the overall market. And one of the things I'm encouraged by is actually our market share in e-commerce channels, for the most part, tends to be higher than in physical channels. And it is an environment where well-known brands that are well supported do well.

當然。首先，我要說的是更廣泛的數字商務，公司採取的姿態是我們希望成為塑造飲料酒精數字商務的領導者。因此，我們有許多舉措，包括與大平台合作，與零售商合作。正如您所指出的，我們有一些直接面向消費者的平台，例如 malts.com 和 bar.com。我會說他們還很小。我們在歐洲和巴西等市場處於試驗模式。我們這樣做是為了學習，我們將清楚地從那裡學習和擴大規模。但是，如果我通過這個 3 層系統看看我們在歐洲和中國，甚至在美國所做的事情，我們確實在構建我們的數字商務能力，並在該領域快速發展。我們投資它是因為我們相信它的增長速度將超過整個市場。讓我感到鼓舞的一件事實際上是我們在電子商務渠道中的市場份額，在大多數情況下，往往高於實體渠道。在這種環境下，受到良好支持的知名品牌會表現出色。

And then the second question was about Radar. This is, I'll call it, another module that we're adding on to our Catalyst tool. So sometimes, we'll talk about our EDGE tools, which is about everyday execution at the outlet level in markets and that we're able to get a lot of data and information about what's happening around a particular outlet. So what are consumers drinking in terms of bars in the neighborhood? What are the demographics of the neighborhood? And what would that tend to lead us to believe are the best types of Diageo brands to really have at that outlet? And what are programs that we can run that will be a win-win both to Diageo and the outlet owner? So it's all about trying to get, I'll call it, hyper-local information and really trying to make sure we're on the ground getting those local insights. And so with this next module within Catalyst that is something similar, and it's looking to grab external information, not just about the macroeconomic situation in a place like the U.S., but about the specific economic situation at a zip code level or within a region, within a state, so that we understand what's happening both at a very micro and local level. Again, so we can determine what are the best programs for us to run so that we have high confidence that our marketing dollars are really going to get a high return. So it's all about having more and more local information so that we can make local decisions. We -- clearly, we've run some national advertising campaigns, but this is about really being able to, on the ground, do different things locally that's great for our brands and overall growth for the business.

然後第二個問題是關於雷達的。這是，我稱之為我們添加到 Catalyst 工具的另一個模塊。所以有時候，我們會談論我們的 EDGE 工具，它是關於市場中網點級別的日常執行的，我們能夠獲得有關特定網點周圍發生的事情的大量數據和信息。那麼就附近的酒吧而言，消費者喝的是什麼？附近的人口統計數據是什麼？什麼會讓我們相信帝亞吉歐品牌在該店真正擁有的最佳類型？我們可以運行哪些程序，這對帝亞吉歐和奧特萊斯所有者都是雙贏的？所以這一切都是為了試圖獲得，我稱之為超本地信息，並真正努力確保我們在實地獲得這些本地見解。因此，Catalyst 中的下一個模塊與此類似，它希望獲取外部信息，不僅是關於美國等地的宏觀經濟形勢，還包括郵政編碼級別或區域內的特定經濟形勢，在一個州內，以便我們了解在非常微觀和地方層面上發生的事情。同樣，我們可以確定什麼是最適合我們運行的程序，這樣我們就有信心我們的營銷資金真的會獲得高回報。所以這一切都是關於獲得越來越多的本地信息，以便我們可以做出本地決策。我們 - 顯然，我們已經開展了一些全國性的廣告活動，但這是真正能夠在當地做不同的事情，這對我們的品牌和業務的整體增長都有好處。

Well, why don't I go into a close here. Again, a big thank you to everyone for your interest in the company. I hope you and your families stay well and safe. And Kathy and I look forward to connecting with many of you in the next few days. Thank you.

好吧，為什麼我不在這裡結束。再次非常感謝大家對公司的關注。我希望你和你的家人都平安無事。凱西和我期待在接下來的幾天裡與你們中的許多人聯繫。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect.

謝謝大家。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可能會斷開連接。