Douglas Emmett Inc (DEI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Douglas Emmett's quarterly earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Stuart McElhinney, Vice President of Investor Relations for Douglas Emmett.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加道格拉斯·埃米特的季度財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）我現在將會議交給 Douglas Emmett 投資者關係副總裁 Stuart McElhinney。

Thank you. Joining us today on the call are Jordan Kaplan, our President and CEO; Kevin Crummy, our CIO; and Peter Seymour, our CFO. This call is being webcast live from our website and will be available for replay during the next 90 days. You can also find our earnings package at the Investor Relations section of our website. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed during today's call in the earnings package.

謝謝。今天加入我們電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長喬丹卡普蘭 (Jordan Kaplan)； Kevin Crummy，我們的資訊長；以及我們的財務長 Peter Seymour。本次電話會議正在我們的網站上進行網路直播，並將在接下來的 90 天內重播。您也可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們的收益方案。您可以在收益計劃中找到今天電話會議中討論的非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

During the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of, assumptions made by, and information currently available to us. Our actual results will be affected by known and unknown risks, trends, uncertainties, and factors that are beyond our control or ability to predict. Although we believe that our assumptions are reasonable, they are not guarantees of future performance and some will prove to be incorrect.

在本次電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述是基於我們的信念、假設和目前可獲得的資訊。我們的實際結果將受到已知和未知的風險、趨勢、不確定性以及我們無法控製或預測能力的因素的影響。儘管我們相信我們的假設是合理的，但它們並不能保證未來的業績，而且有些假設會被證明是不正確的。

Therefore, our actual future results can be expected to differ from our expectations, and those differences may be material. For a more detailed description of some potential risks, please refer to our SEC filings, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. When we reach the question-and-answer portion in consideration of others, please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. I will now turn the call over to Jordan.

因此，我們未來的實際結果可能與我們的預期有所不同，而這些差異可能是重大的。有關一些潛在風險的更詳細描述，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，該文件可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。當我們考慮到其他人而進入問答部分時，請限制自己只提出一個問題和一個跟進。我現在將把電話轉給喬丹。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. In 2023, higher interest rates fueled recession fears. As a result, tenants became more cautious, office leasing slowed, and our leasing gains immediately following the pandemic were reversed. Our office occupancy declined, but large fixed rent increases, stable rental rates, and low concessions in our markets mitigated the impact on revenue.

早安，感謝您加入我們。2023 年，利率上升加劇了經濟衰退的擔憂。結果，租戶變得更加謹慎，辦公室租賃放緩，疫情後的租賃收益出現逆轉。我們的辦公室入住率有所下降，但固定租金的大幅上漲、穩定的租金率以及市場的低優惠減輕了對收入的影響。

Interestingly, remote work does not seem to have meaningfully reduced demand from our tenants. In addition, due to our typical five-year lease terms, more than two-thirds of our current leases were actually signed after the pandemic began.

有趣的是，遠距工作似乎並沒有顯​​著減少我們租戶的需求。此外，由於我們典型的五年租賃期限，我們目前超過三分之二的租賃實際上是在疫情開始後簽署的。

As Peter will tell you, our 2024 guidance anticipates lower FFO as a result of vacating the Barrington Plaza apartments, the expiration of one large lease and a higher interest costs. Our guidance does not take into account any significant recovery in leasing demand, even though we see the potential for that as tenant confidence increases. I am pleased that shortly after quarter end, one of our largest tenants signed in early renewal for 250,000 square feet.

正如彼得將告訴您的那樣，我們的 2024 年指導預計，由於巴林頓廣場公寓的騰空、一項大型租約到期以及利息成本上升，FFO 將會下降。我們的指引並未考慮到租賃需求的任何顯著復甦，儘管我們看到了隨著租戶信心增強而出現的潛力。我很高興季度末後不久，我們最大的租戶之一簽署了 250,000 平方英尺的提前續約合約。

We continue to grow our residential portfolio. We have added almost 1,300 apartments over the last five years in our strongest markets. Despite removing Barrington Plaza from the market, our residential portfolio now provides almost 20% of our rental revenue. In addition, we have not experienced the residential building boom seen in other major markets, so our apartments remain fully leased.

我們繼續擴大我們的住宅產品組合。在過去五年裡，我們在最強勁的市場上新增了近 1,300 套公寓。儘管 Barrington Plaza 已退出市場，但我們的住宅組合目前仍占我們租金收入的近 20%。此外，我們還沒有經歷其他主要市場的住宅建設熱潮，因此我們的公寓仍處於滿租狀態。

That said, the rapid rent growth during the pandemic seems to be normalizing. There are challenges and opportunities ahead. We are prepared for both, as I am confident in the long-term prospects of our markets. Our supply-demand dynamic is among the best in the US. Our submarkets are vibrant, and our office tenants have overwhelmingly returned to work. We have significant cash on hand, meaningful free cash flow, no corporate-level debt, and almost half of our office properties remain unencumbered.

也就是說，疫情期間租金的快速成長似乎正常化。未來充滿挑戰和機會。我們已經做好了這兩方面的準備，因為我對我們市場的長期前景充滿信心。我們的供需動態在美國名列前茅。我們的子市場充滿活力，我們的辦公室租戶絕大多數已重返工作崗位。我們手頭上有大量現金，有意義的自由現金流，沒有公司級債務，而且我們幾乎一半的辦公物業仍然沒有負擔。

With that, I will turn the call over to Kevin.

這樣，我會將電話轉給凱文。

Thanks, Jordan. And good morning, everyone. I would just like to take a moment to mention that we have completed the lease up of our 376-unit Landmark LA property in Brentwood. At our office to residential conversion in Honolulu, we finished the conversion of another office floor, and as expected, the 22 new apartments are leasing quickly. As the remaining two office floors vacate over the next few years, we will add the final 47 units to complete that project.

謝謝，喬丹。大家早安。我想花點時間提一下，我們已經完成了位於布倫特伍德 (Brentwood) 的 376 個單位的 Landmark LA 房產的租賃。在檀香山的辦公住宅改建中，我們完成了另一層辦公大樓的改建，正如預期的那樣，22 套新公寓正在迅速出租。隨著剩餘兩層辦公大樓在未來幾年內騰出，我們將增加最後 47 個單位來完成專案。

Otherwise, our cash and strong JV relationships position us to take advantage of new opportunities in our markets and we're focused on finding those opportunities in both residential and office. Stuart?

除此之外，我們的現金和強大的合資關係使我們能夠利用市場中的新機會，並且我們專注於在住宅和辦公領域尋找這些機會。史都華？

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. For all of 2023, we signed 872 office leases totaling 3.2 million square feet for an average of 800,000 square feet per quarter. During the fourth quarter, we signed 202 office leases covering 710,000 square feet, including 243,000 square feet of new leases, and 467,000 square feet of renewal leases. These results do not include the 250,000 square feet renewal in Beverly Hills signed after quarter end, extending the term for 10 years through 2037.

謝謝，凱文。大家，早安。2023 年全年，我們簽署了 872 份辦公室租賃合同，總面積為 320 萬平方英尺，平均每季 80 萬平方英尺。第四季度，我們簽署了 202 份辦公租賃合同，面積達 710,000 平方英尺，其中新租約 243,000 平方英尺，續租租約為 467,000 平方英尺。這些結果不包括季度末後簽署的比佛利山莊 250,000 平方英尺的續約合同，該續約合約將期限延長 10 年至 2037 年。

The overall value of new leases we signed in the quarter increased by 4.3%. Cash spreads were down 6.1%, reflecting the strong annual rent increases built into our leases. At an average of only $5.86 per square foot per year, our leasing cost during the fourth quarter remained well below the average for other office REITs in our benchmark group. Our residential properties continued to perform well during the fourth quarter, ending the year at 98.5% leased.

本季我們簽訂的新租賃總價值成長了 4.3%。現金利差下降 6.1%，反映出我們租賃中的年租金強勁成長。我們第四季的租賃成本平均每年每平方英尺僅 5.86 美元，仍然遠低於我們基準組中其他辦公房地產投資信託的平均值。我們的住宅物業在第四季度繼續表現良好，年末出租率為 98.5%。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Peter to discuss our results.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Peter 來討論我們的結果。

Thanks, Stuart. Good morning, everyone. Reviewing our results compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, revenue increased by 2% partly from higher multifamily revenues and ground rent. During the fourth quarter, we prevailed in the ground rent reset arbitration on land that we own. The result was a one-time payment of accumulated back rent of approximately $5.5 million and going forward, there will be approximately $1 million of additional annual rent.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。大家，早安。與 2022 年第四季相比，我們的業績成長了 2%，部分原因是多戶型收入和地租增加。第四季度，我們在自有土地的地租重置仲裁中勝訴。結果是一次性支付了約 550 萬美元的累積欠租，今後還將有約 100 萬美元的額外年租金。

FFO decreased by 12%, $0.46 per share, primarily as a result of higher interest expense. AFFO decreased 8.1% to $74.6 million. And same-property cash NOI decreased by 1.1%, driven by a comparison to a strong prior period that benefited from onetime tax refunds on our residential portfolio. Adjusting for those items, residential cash same-property NOI would have been positive 3.3%, and overall cash NOI growth would have been negative 0.6%. Our G&A remains very low relative to our benchmark group at only 5.6% of revenue.

FFO 下降 12%，每股 0.46 美元，主要是因為利息費用增加。AFFO 下降 8.1% 至 7,460 萬美元。與受益於我們的住宅投資組合一次性退稅的強勁前期相比，同一房產現金 NOI 下降了 1.1%。在這些項目進行調整後，住宅現金同物產 NOI 將為正 3.3%，整體現金 NOI 成長將為負 0.6%。與我們的基準集團相比，我們的一般行政費用仍然非常低，僅佔收入的 5.6%。

Turning to guidance, for 2024, we expect FFO per share to be between $1.64 and $1.70, reflecting the expected move out of one large tenant in Burbank, the removal of Barrington Plaza from the rental market, higher interest costs, and modest leasing assumptions.

談到指導，我們預計2024 年每股FFO 將在1.64 美元至1.70 美元之間，反映了伯班克的一個大租戶的預期搬出、巴靈頓廣場從租賃市場上的移除、更高的利息成本以及適度的租賃假設。

For information on assumptions underlying our guidance, please refer to the schedule in the earnings package. As usual, our guidance does not assume the impact of future acquisitions, dispositions, or financings.

有關我們指導的假設的信息，請參閱收益計劃中的時間表。與往常一樣，我們的指引不假設未來收購、處置或融資的影響。

I will now turn the call over to the operator so we can take your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Blaine Heck, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Blaine Heck，富國銀行。

Great, thanks. So Jordan, it seems like some of the rhetoric in the market has shifted back towards interest rates that could be higher for longer. I guess, how are you thinking about where rates go in the next year or two? And has anything changed around your thoughts on how to handle the upcoming swap and debt maturities in '24 and beyond?

萬分感謝。因此，喬丹，市場上的一些言論似乎已經轉向利率可能會在更長時間內保持在較高水準。我想，您如何考慮未來一兩年的利率走勢？您對如何處理 24 年及以後即將到來的互換和債務到期的想法有什麼變化嗎？

So the reason there're swaps coming up is that we typically do a seven-year loan, and we swap five years of it. That gives us a two-year window to then refinance alone. So most of the time when swaps are coming up, it means that we need to start to having a point of view toward refinancing. But more importantly, it means that it's probably not worthwhile to trying to swap two years or one year or whatever is left, which is to some degree, what you see coming up.

因此，出現掉期的原因是，我們通常會提供七年期貸款，然後將其中的五年進行掉期。這給了我們兩年的時間來單獨進行再融資。因此，大多數時候，當掉期出現時，這意味著我們需要開始對再融資有一個看法。但更重要的是，這意味著可能不值得嘗試交換兩年或一年或剩餘的任何時間，這在某種程度上是你所看到的。

But as we refinance those loans, we'll focus on then swapping them, and they'll be fixed at whatever rate we're always in the market at that time. And hopefully, we have a good spread.

但當我們為這些貸款再融資時，我們將專注於然後交換它們，並且它們將固定在我們當時在市場上的任何利率。希望我們能有好的傳播。

All right. Great. That's helpful. Then just second question. With respect to Barrington Plaza, I guess, can you guys give any update on your expectation with respect to insurance proceeds? Any update on the litigation from prior tenants? And then talk about the mechanics of that project, especially how capitalized interests might impact numbers and just at a high level, how we should be thinking about and of the impact to earnings this year and beyond?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後就是第二個問題。關於巴靈頓廣場，我想你們能提供一下你們對保險收益的期望的最新情況嗎？先前租戶的訴訟有最新進展嗎？然後討論該項目的機制，特別是資本化利息可能如何影響數字，以及在高水平上，我們應該如何考慮今年及以後對收益的影響？

Okay. So I'll answer the first part, and I'll let Peter answer the second part. But in terms of the -- well, go ahead, you can answer your section, then you come back and ask me whatever you don't answer. Go ahead.

好的。所以我會回答第一部分，我會讓彼得回答第二部分。但就——好吧，繼續吧，你可以回答你的部分，然後你回來問我任何你沒有回答的問題。前進。

Yeah. Okay. It's Peter. Yeah. I mean, with respect to the impact of Barrington this year, we had about $0.045 of Barrington in 2023, and that will be reduced to about $0.005 in our numbers for 2024, mostly due to the remaining retail commercial tenants that are in the property. And then our interest guidance assumes a certain level of capitalized interest. But obviously, that's going to depend on how quickly we move and how much we spend.

是的。好的。是彼得。是的。我的意思是，就巴靈頓今年的影響而言，我們在2023 年擁有約0.045 美元的巴靈頓，到2024 年，我們的數據將減少到約0.005 美元，這主要是由於該物業中剩餘的零售商業租戶。然後我們的利息指導假設一定程度的資本化利息。但顯然，這將取決於我們行動的速度和花費的金額。

Okay. So then your questions then revolved around the litigation and the insurance, right? Your beginning questions. And while we feel it's insured, I mean, we still have to get the insurers on board with that, so we're dealing with that. And then in terms of litigation coming from tenants, I mean, obviously, that is also ensured, but it's ongoing and all litigation is disruptive. So I mean, it's a drag that it's going on, but we're dealing with that.

好的。那麼您的問題就圍繞著訴訟和保險，對嗎？你一開始的問題。雖然我們覺得它有保險，但我的意思是，我們仍然需要讓保險公司參與進來，所以我們正在處理這個問題。然後，就來自租戶的訴訟而言，我的意思是，顯然，這也是有保證的，但它仍在繼續，所有訴訟都是破壞性的。所以我的意思是，這種情況正在發生，但我們正在處理這個問題。

All right. Well, stay tuned for an update. Thanks, guys.

好的。好吧，請繼續關注更新。多謝你們。

All righty.

好吧。

Michael Griffin, Citi.

邁克爾·格里芬，花旗銀行。

Great, thanks. Jordan, I want to go back to your comment you made on the leasing front. You said that two-thirds of your leases have already been signed during or after the pandemic. Is it fair to assume that leasing is going to materially pick up in the next couple of years? Or is this just the new normal that we should expect?

萬分感謝。喬丹，我想回到您在租賃方面的評論。您說您三分之二的租約已經在疫情期間或之後簽署。假設租賃業務將在未來幾年大幅成長是否公平？或者這只是我們該期待的新常態？

I fully believe that leasing will pick up over the next couple of years. As a matter of fact, as -- I tried to really make this point a huge amount of times, which is that you saw our leasing pick up right after the COVID got lifted. But what's happened now is the country, and particularly a lot of people holding office space, have gotten some recessionary fears, shrinking cost cutting.

我完全相信租賃業務將在未來幾年內回升。事實上，我多次試圖強調這一點，那就是，你看到我們的租賃在新冠病毒解除後立即回升。但現在的情況是，這個國家，尤其是許多擁有辦公空間的人，已經感受到了一些經濟衰退的擔憂，削減了成本。

I mean, you don't hear about many companies saying, here's the units that we're expanding, right? Everybody's focused on cutting expenses and we're just one of the results from that going on across the country and certainly here. So people aren't making big commitments to doing new things.

我的意思是，你沒有聽到很多公司說，這是我們正在擴建的單位，對嗎？每個人都專注於削減開支，我們只是全國各地（尤其是這裡）的結果之一。因此，人們並沒有做出重大承諾去嘗試新事物。

Our smaller tenants are going forward great, and you see it. You see we're doing a lot of leasing, but large ones are very hesitant around commitments. And frankly, what I keep seeing and having nothing to do with COVID, or return to work, or any of it, I just see that they're showing, telling the analysts, you guys, what do you want to hear, which is we're cutting costs by cutting staffing. And there's just one article and another like that.

我們的小租戶進展順利，您也看到了。你看，我們正在進行大量的租賃，但大型租賃公司對承諾非常猶豫。坦白說，我一直看到的與新冠病毒、重返工作崗位或任何其他事情無關，我只是看到他們正在展示，告訴分析師，你們想听到什麼，那就是我們透過削減人員來削減成本。只有一篇文章和另一篇類似的文章。

So as soon as that lightens up, I fully expect the market to return to where we were before. And by the way, most of our history, when we weren't in a process of buying or acquiring a lot of vacancy, we have been at a very high levels of occupancy with the portfolio ranging from 92 to 95, 96. And you go, well, what's the reason for that and why do we feel it's such a great market is what I said. We have the best supply-demand dynamic of any market in the United States.

因此，一旦情況好轉，我完全預期市場將回到之前的水平。順便說一句，在我們的大部分歷史中，當我們沒有購買或獲得大量空置的過程中時，我們的入住率一直處於非常高的水平，投資組合範圍從 92 到 95、96。你會說，這是什麼原因，為什麼我們覺得這是一個如此巨大的市場，這就是我所說的。我們擁有美國所有市場中最好的供需動態。

We effectively have no new supply coming in and we have a lot of industries that drive demand. And I know nobody wants to keep hearing about tech and entertainment, but we have medicine, we have universities, we have research, all of those are our space takers. And you're seeing articles about it even today.

我們實際上沒有新的供應進來，而且我們有很多行業可以推動需求。我知道沒有人想繼續聽到科技和娛樂，但我們有醫學，我們有大學，我們有研究，所有這些都是我們的太空佔領者。即使在今天，您也會看到有關它的文章。

So I'm very optimistic about where our buildings will be headed as soon as what -- I think what you'll actually see is, you'll see interest rates lighten up and tenants come back strong into the market all around the same time. But we all need to make predictions about that. And I don't think their market's specific for us.

因此，我對我們的建築將走向何方非常樂觀——我想你實際上會看到的是，你會看到利率下降，租戶幾乎同時強勢回歸市場。但我們都需要對此做出預測。我不認為他們的市場是針對我們的。

Got you. I appreciate the insights there. And then I was wondering if you could give some additional color on the 20% acquisition in your JV fund. Was this more opportunistic, given the existing relationship you have there? Or should we read into this as you're looking more proactively at that acquisition opportunities?

明白你了。我很欣賞那裡的見解。然後我想知道您是否可以對合資基金 20% 的收購提供一些額外的說明。考慮到你們之間現有的關係，這是否更具機會主義色彩？或者，當您更積極地尋找收購機會時，我們是否應該對此進行解讀？

So in general, when we're in these JVs, our recommendation is always, we think this is a good hold or, we think we should all be selling at the same time. But then in the specific, when one of our JV partners wants to sell, we work hard to make sure there's a market for that and they can get liquidity. And this was a relatively small deal. I mean, it's not very material, but we were certainly happy to provide that liquidity for that partner that wanted to get out and that's all that really happened there.

因此，總的來說，當我們在這些合資企業中時，我們的建議始終是，我們認為這是一個很好的持有，或者我們認為我們應該同時出售。但具體來說，當我們的一個合資夥伴想要出售時，我們會努力確保有市場，並且他們可以獲得流動性。這是一筆相對較小的交易。我的意思是，這不是很重要，但我們當然很樂意為想要退出的合作夥伴提供流動性，這就是那裡真正發生的一切。

Great. Well, that's it for me. Thanks for the time.

偉大的。嗯，對我來說就是這樣。謝謝你的時間。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

尼克尤利科，豐業銀行。

Thanks. Maybe first question is on acquisition opportunities and how you're thinking about those? And particularly in relation to if you have a portfolio right now, where you're already dealing with some unstabilized occupancy levels. I mean, are you still willing to go out and find investments if they pencil makes sense and put capital to work with JV partners?

謝謝。也許第一個問題是關於收購機會以及您如何看待這些機會？特別是如果您現在有一個投資組合，那麼您已經在處理一些不穩定的入住率等級。我的意思是，如果投資有意義並投入資金與合資夥伴合作，您還願意出去尋找投資嗎？

Absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, we're spending -- definitely spending time trying to find deals and I think it's an amazing opportunity right now. And when I think back to the last time, I thought it was such an obvious and amazing opportunity, which maybe the rest of world didn't think, but it did turn out to be the case.

絕對地。絕對地。我的意思是，我們正在花費——肯定是花時間尋找交易，我認為現在這是一個絕佳的機會。當我回想起上次時，我認為這是一個如此明顯和驚人的機會，也許世界其他地方沒有想到，但事實確實如此。

You got to go all way back to 1990, '91, '92, '93 when Ken and I were just getting going with this company with Dan and Chris, and we looked at what was going on out there, and we said, wow. I mean the price you can buy these buildings for, assuming some of this stuff comes up and we have a chance to get it, they're epic. Apparently, they are 130 years, and I don't want to miss that opportunity at all.

你必須追溯到 1990 年、91 年、92 年、93 年，當時 Ken 和我剛剛與 Dan 和 Chris 一起開始這家公司，我們看看那裡發生了什麼，我們說，哇。我的意思是你可以購買這些建築物的價格，假設其中一些東西出現並且我們有機會得到它，它們是史詩般的。顯然，他們已經130歲了，我根本不想錯過這個機會。

All right. Thanks. And then second is just on the William Morris extension. Are you able to give us any feel for how the rent spread worked on that? And I guess we'll learn next quarter when you put the new rent in this up. But any preview you can give us on that, along with how to think about the capital you had to extend to get the lease done?

好的。謝謝。其次是威廉·莫里斯的續約。您能為我們介紹一下租金差價是如何影響的嗎？我想下個季度當你把新的租金算進去時我們就會知道。但是您可以向我們提供有關此方面的任何預覽，以及如何考慮您必須延長租賃才能完成的資本嗎？

Yeah. So the current lease expires in '27. This is a 10-year extension, so now it's 2037. They kept all their current space. There's not going to be any current impact on cash revenues, because it doesn't start for a while.

是的。所以目前的租約將於 27 年到期。這是一個 10 年的延期，所以現在是 2037 年。他們保留了目前所有的空間。目前不會對現金收入產生任何影響，因為它還需要一段時間才能開始。

But we're doing some building work, but I don't think the TIs -- I don't think you're going to look at the TIs and say, that was a big difference. I doubt they'll impact anything in terms of averages or any of that. And there will be very significant cash and straight-line rent roll-up.

但我們正在做一些建設工作，但我不認為 TI——我認為你不會在看到 TI 後說，這是一個很大的區別。我懷疑它們會對平均值或任何其他方面產生任何影響。並且將會有非常大量的現金和直線租金上漲。

Thanks.

謝謝。

All righty.

好吧。

Jay Poskitt, Evercore.

傑·波斯基特，Evercore。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you just provide a little bit of color on where you typically see renewal percentages at the start of the year, just thinking through how occupancy will trend throughout '24?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我想知道您是否只是提供一些關於年初時通常看到的續訂百分比的信息，只是想一下整個 24 年的入住率趨勢如何？

Hey, Jay. Yeah, our long-term average renewal rate for our office tenants is in the high-60s between 65% and 70% over the long term. If you're looking at the supplemental on the roll over the next four quarters, obviously, that renewal percentage goes down the closer you get because most of our tenants have renewed six months or a year before their term end. So if you want (technical difficulty) to talk about that offline, but a long-term average is in that high-60s range.

嘿，傑伊。是的，從長遠來看，我們辦公室租戶的長期平均續約率在 65% 到 70% 之間。如果您查看未來四個季度的補充，顯然，續約百分比會隨著時間的臨近而下降，因為我們的大多數租戶在任期結束前六個月或一年都已續約。因此，如果您想（技術難度）離線討論這一點，但長期平均值在 60​​ 左右左右。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then just going back to the distress front as well. I'm curious if you could provide anything on just where you expect to see that, whether it's on the office front, multifamily, or maybe a combination of both?

好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。然後又回到遇險前線。我很好奇您是否可以提供有關您期望看到的內容的任何信息，無論是在辦公室、多戶住宅還是兩者的組合？

I'll take that. Good morning. We're going to see it on a combination of both. I mean, when you look at the headlines, lenders are taking back both office and multifamily. And I mean, candidly, I was just at something yesterday, where they were showing upcoming maturities and the pending defaults and some of these very, very low cap rate, multifamily assets that were bought with floating rate debt. It's a pretty deep bench. So I'm expecting that we're going to see more of both of those as the year progresses.

我會接受的。早安.我們將看到兩者的結合。我的意思是，當你看頭條新聞時，貸款人正在收回辦公室和多戶住宅。我的意思是，坦白說，我昨天剛剛看到了一些東西，他們顯示了即將到期的債券和待定的違約金，以及其中一些非常非常低的資本化率、用浮動利率債務購買的多戶資產。這是一個相當深的長凳。因此，我預計隨著時間的推移，我們會看到更多這兩種情況。

Great. Thanks. That's all for me.

偉大的。謝謝。這就是我的全部。

Dylan Burzinski, Green Street.

迪倫·布爾津斯基，格林街。

Hi, guys, Thanks for taking the question. And appreciate your comment on longer-term leasing expectations. But as we think about what's embedded in the current occupancy guidance, is it your sense that call it the 700,000 square feet leasing volume per quarter, is it going to be more of the norm here as the economy works its way through a lot of the uncertainty? Or do you think that the level seen earlier last year is more representative of what's embedded in guidance today?

嗨，夥計們，感謝您提出問題。感謝您對長期租賃預期的評論。但是，當我們思考當前入住率指導中包含的內容時，您是否認為將其稱為每季度 700,000 平方英尺的租賃量？隨著經濟經歷許多階段，這是否會成為這裡的常態？不確定？或者您認為去年早些時候看到的水平更能代表今天指導中的內容？

Well, I mean, actually we averaged last year, I think, 800,000 or a little over 800,000 square feet. I'm hopeful, but I'm not gutsy enough to say that we're willing to put in guidance some big recovery. And that's why, as we said, we probably -- hopefully, in terms of the leasing and what we thought would happen, I mean, that's in our guidance and you have it now, but I'm hopeful. But just like everybody's watching overall economy, which won't be any different for us, and it will be for the rest of the country.

嗯，我的意思是，實際上我們去年的平均面積是 800,000 或略高於 800,000 平方英尺。我充滿希望，但我沒有足夠的勇氣說我們願意為重大復甦提供指導。這就是為什麼，正如我們所說，我們可能——希望就租賃和我們認為會發生的事情而言，我的意思是，這在我們的指導中，你現在已經有了，但我充滿希望。但就像每個人都在關注整體經濟一樣，這對我們來說不會有任何不同，對全國其他地區來說也是如此。

And then as you think about acquisition opportunities, I'm just saying that we may be in the early innings of things. But just curious, internally, as you guys think about deploying capital, is there some yield on cost or IRR that would really get you guys excited? And if so, can you walk through how you guys are thinking about that?

然後當你考慮收購機會時，我只是說我們可能正處於事情的早期階段。但只是好奇，在內部，當你們考慮部署資本時，是否有一些成本收益或 IRR 真的會讓你們感到興奮？如果是這樣，您能說說你們是如何看待這個問題的嗎？

I don't -- look, each opportunity is unique based on the rent roll, what the property is. The metric that gets us really excited right now is cost per square feet, is going to be very attractive. And then it's a function of taking what we believe in the leasing and the debt market and figuring out what that IRR is going to be. But the opportunities are certainly going to be richer than they were pre-interest rate environment high.

我不會——看，每個機會都是獨一無二的，取決於房租、房產的狀況。現在讓我們真正興奮的指標是每平方英尺的成本，這將非常有吸引力。然後，根據我們對租賃和債務市場的看法，計算出 IRR 將會是多少。但機會肯定會比高利率環境之前更豐富。

Appreciate it. That's it for me.

欣賞它。對我來說就是這樣。

(Operator Instructions) Upal Rana, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Upal Rana，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Great. Thank you. Just going back to the retention rate here. Based on your occupancy guidance, retention seems to imply about 62%, which is marginally below your historical range that you mentioned. If most of your new leases doesn't come online in '24 or if new leases slows, the required retention rate would need to be increased. So I'm just wondering how curious -- how confident you are on that and if you can achieve that?

偉大的。謝謝。回到這裡的保留率。根據您的入住率指導，保留率似乎約為 62%，略低於您提到的歷史範圍。如果您的大部分新租約在 2024 年沒有上線，或者新租約放緩，則需要提高所需的保留率。所以我只是想知道你對此有多好奇——你對此有多大信心以及你是否能實現這一目標？

Yeah. So of course, this year includes the Warner Discovery move out, which is 2.5% of our square footage. So that's built into the range we gave you. So that's going to skew the retention average for this year down, lower than it normally would be. The high-60s retention rate that's our historical average is over a long period of time, but something that large will skew this year, So that's certainly taken into account.

是的。當然，今年華納探索公司也將搬出，占我們面積的 2.5%。因此，這已包含在我們為您提供的產品範圍內。因此，這將使今年的平均留存率下降，低於正常水平。60 多歲的高留存率是我們的歷史平均水平，這是很長一段時間內的情況，但今年的情況會出現如此大的變化，所以這肯定會被考慮在內。

Beyond that, one move out, as Jordan mentioned, we're keeping our leasing assumptions pretty in line with what we've seen the last couple of quarters and we're not assuming any ramp up from here.

除此之外，正如喬丹所提到的，我們的租賃假設與過去幾個季度的情況非常一致，我們不會假設從這裡開始會有任何增加。

Okay, got it. Thank you. That was helpful. And then just I want to get your thoughts on the future of UCLA in your portfolio. They've made that pretty big purchase at Westside Pavilion Mall and they do have a number of expirations coming up over the next couple of years. So I want to get your thoughts on what their future looks like with you guys?

好，知道了。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後我想了解您對加州大學洛杉磯分校未來的想法。他們在 Westside Pavilion 購物中心進行了相當大的購買，並且在未來幾年內確實有很多到期日。所以我想聽聽你們對他們的未來有何看法？

Wow, it's a lot of different leases. I cannot -- I know the mall deal is not -- it's all new. So it's a whole new program. The state is funding a new center for research and immunology. And then also there's completely separate set of bankers that are funding a brand-new research, the one is 500,000 feet, then there's 70,000 feet with brand-new whole research center for quantum computing.

哇，有很多不同的租賃。我不能——我知道商場的交易不是——它是全新的。所以這是一個全新的計劃。該州正在資助一個新的研究和免疫學中心。然後還有一組完全獨立的銀行家正在資助一項全新的研究，一個是 500,000 英尺，然後是 70,000 英尺，有一個全新的量子計算研究中心。

And so that's not in any sense a drain of anything, even from campus, I mean, from anywhere. In terms of just, in general, UCLA's plans and what they're doing, it's very hard to tell. All those leases that are -- the decisions about those leases are independently made by the people in those departments. And so it's hard to say one thing or another about them.

因此，這在任何意義上都不是任何東西的流失，即使是從校園，我的意思是，從任何地方。就一般而言，加州大學洛杉磯分校的計劃和他們正在做的事情，很難說。所有這些租賃－有關這些租賃的決定都是由這些部門的人員獨立做出的。因此很難對他們說一說或另一說。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Peter Abramowitz, Jefferies.

彼得·阿布拉莫維茨，杰弗里斯。

Thank you. I just wonder if you could provide an update. Have you had any initial tenant conversations about potentially backfilling that space in Burbank? Is it more likely to be -- do you think you do it as one large lease or is it something you anticipate having a breakup into smaller mid-size leases?

謝謝。我只是想知道你是否可以提供更新。您是否曾與租戶就可能回填伯班克的該空間進行初步對話？更有可能的是——您認為您會將其作為一項大型租賃來進行，還是您預計將其分解為較小的中型租賃？

Well, I mean, of course we're doing showings and there are certainly tenants there. I think there's reticence to committing, but I mean, I think that will happen. So I'm not nervous about leasing up the building.

嗯，我的意思是，我們當然正在看房，而且那裡肯定有租戶。我認為人們不願意做出承諾，但我的意思是，我認為這將會發生。所以我對出租這棟大樓並不感到緊張。

And all I can say is I hope it's not one large lease again, because we've spent 30 years talking about that lease every 10 years when it came up. I'd rather have it be multiple leases and be done talking about, but I'm not sure how it will end up. There's obviously large tenants in that market.

我只能說，我希望這不再是一項大型租約，因為我們已經花了 30 年的時間每 10 年討論一次租約。我寧願它是多次租賃並結束談論，但我不確定它會如何結束。那個市場顯然有大租戶。

Thanks. And then one other would be, besides the move out of Discovery there, any other big components in the same-store NOI growth guidance to consider? What are the other swing factors there aside from that move out?

謝謝。那麼另一個問題是，除了 Discovery 的遷出之外，同店 NOI 成長指導中還有其他需要考慮的重要組成部分嗎？除了撤出之外，還有哪些其他搖擺因素？

I don't know. Same-store is a tricky calculation. I couldn't make a good analysis of that for you here. You could give Peter a call, I guess, later and try to figure out if there's something out.

我不知道。同店是一個棘手的計算。我無法在這裡為您做出很好的分析。我想，你可以稍後給彼得打個電話，看看是否有問題。

I don't think there's anything unique in driving that -- not in driving that guidance.

我不認為推動這一點有什麼獨特之處——而不是推動指導。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

And also the Studio Plaza is not included in the same-store.

而Studio Plaza也不包含在同店內。

Okay. So it's mainly the occupancy drag that's just leading to the negative growth there, but other than Discovery?

好的。因此，主要是入住率拖累導致了那裡的負增長，但除了探索之外？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

Camille Bonnel, Bank of America.

卡米爾·博內爾，美國銀行。

Hi, everyone. Can we get your thoughts on the media sector and how its recovery is trending since the strikes have been resolved, just based on the conversations you're having in the pipeline?

大家好。我們能否僅根據您正在進行的對話，了解您對媒體行業的看法以及自罷工解決以來媒體行業的復甦趨勢如何？

I don't know that I have the great -- I mean, I don't have a lot of thoughts. I mean they're -- do you have any thoughts on that?

我不知道我有什麼偉大的——我的意思是，我沒有太多的想法。我的意思是他們——你對此有什麼想法嗎？

Camille, I'd say this, we -- giving the strikes results has to be a good thing on the margin. We do certainly have entertainment clients and tenants. And so some of that stuff did slow down a little bit on the margin during the strike. So I think it's got to be a good thing for us going forward. But I don't know that it's a huge needle mover in the near term.

卡米爾，我想說的是，我們——給出罷工結果一定是件好事。我們確實有娛樂客戶和租戶。因此，在罷工期間，其中一些東西確實略有放緩。所以我認為這對我們未來的發展來說一定是件好事。但我不知道它在短期內會產生巨大的推動作用。

There's still caution in the market as Jordan's been describing, but I think we're happy that those are resolved. We need those tenants to grow, and hopefully, that will happen here when the economy gets a little better.

正如喬丹所描述的那樣，市場仍然保持謹慎態度，但我認為我們很高興這些問題得到了解決。我們需要這些租戶的成長，希望當經濟好一點時，就會發生這種情況。

I think we had one large entertainment tenant. We know they're leaving. So I don't think we they have any other big entertainment tenants.

我想我們有一個大型娛樂租戶。我們知道他們要走了。所以我認為我們沒有其他大型娛樂租戶。

Not big ones, but we do small -- we do small tenants, small leases with writers groups and other small entertainment groups.

規模不大，但我們做小事——我們做小租戶，與作家團體和其他小型娛樂團體進行小額租賃。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah. Just trying to get a sense of like the smaller guys are coming back to the table to have conversations looking to start new projects. Just trying to get a sense if anything's changed since?

是的。只是想了解小公司正在回到談判桌進行對話，尋求啟動新計畫。只是想了解一下自那時起是否發生了任何變化？

I mean, you just saw a renewal of the tenant in Beverly Hills that we renewed is an entertainment tenant.

我的意思是，您剛剛看到比佛利山莊的租戶續約，我們續約的是娛樂租戶。

Got it. And for my second question, I was just wondering if you're able to provide any additional color on the same-store NOI outlook for office versus multifamily?

知道了。對於我的第二個問題，我只是想知道您是否能夠為辦公室與多戶住宅的同店 NOI 前景提供任何額外的顏色？

Yeah. We don't break that out between the two. I think that the recent trends that you've seen would be helpful for you to think about going forward. Residential has remained pretty strong and we're dealing with the occupancy drag that's office a little bit. So that will be the case for 2024 as well, I'd assume.

是的。我們不會在兩者之間打破這個界限。我認為您所看到的最近趨勢將有助於您思考未來的發展。住宅區仍然相當強勁，我們正在應對辦公室入住率的一些拖累。我認為 2024 年也是如此。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Bill Crow, Raymond James.

比爾·克勞，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good afternoon, guys. Two quick questions. First of all, is there any real organic or non-organic, I guess, demand in your markets? In other words, is it just a market share gain still? Are you seeing actual new space demands?

下午好，夥計們。兩個簡單的問題。首先，我想，你們的市場是否有真正的有機或非有機需求？換句話說，這還只是市佔率的成長嗎？您是否看到了實際的新空間需求？

I think we -- I don't think from large tenants we're seeing new space demands, but I think we're seeing from the smaller ones, I think we're seeing a lot of business as usual. But the larger ones for us are really, like, over 10,000 or 20,000 feet. So it's impactful when they don't grow or don't renew.

我認為我們——我不認為我們從大租戶那裡看到了新的空間需求，但我認為我們從較小的租戶那裡看到了，我認為我們像往常一樣看到了很多業務。但對我們來說更大的確實是超過 10,000 或 20,000 英尺。因此，當它們不生長或不更新時，就會產生影響。

Okay. Second on downtown, and I know it's not your market, but the flow out of downtown can be helpful. Have we reached bottom on this downward cycle? Or is the market still declining?

好的。其次是市中心，我知道這不是你的市場，但離開市中心的人流可能會有所幫助。我們已經在這個下行週期中觸底了嗎？還是市場仍在下滑？

Well, downtown -- most of downtown went to Century City, right. I mean, a couple of other deals and it was probably pretty positive. It was pretty positive for Century City.

嗯，市中心——市中心的大部分都去了世紀城，對吧。我的意思是，還有其他幾筆交易，可能非常積極。這對世紀城來說是非常正面的。

I'm not sure of how this cycle downtown will play out. I mean, if you're there, you'll maybe have a better feel of that area. I mean, there's a lot of people that are focused on getting that area recovered, but there's a lot of tenants that have said, for better or worse, my next 10 years is going to be on the West side is not going to be in downtown.

我不確定市中心的這個循環將如何進行。我的意思是，如果你在那裡，你可能會對那個地區有更好的感覺。我的意思是，有很多人都專注於恢復該地區，但也有很多租戶表示，無論好壞，我的下一個 10 年都不會在西區市中心。

So I know that's certainly going to have an impact. I don't know how that's going to play out.

所以我知道這肯定會產生影響。我不知道事情會如何發展。

So you're still seeing out-migration from downtown?

那麼您仍然看到市中心有人口外流嗎？

I don't think we've been up -- I mean our markets have been a beneficiary. I'm not sure that we've been a primary beneficiary. So what we're in particular seeing, I cannot say that we're seeing anything meaningful from that.

我不認為我們已經上漲——我的意思是我們的市場是受益者。我不確定我們是否是主要受益者。所以我們特別看到的，我不能說我們從中看到了任何有意義的東西。

Okay. All right. Thanks for the time.

好的。好的。謝謝你的時間。

All right.

好的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jordan Kaplan for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬丹卡普蘭（Jordan Kaplan）發表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in a quarter.

好的，感謝您加入我們，我們期待在一個季度內再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。