Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) 2007 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by.

Welcome to the Deckers Outdoor Corporation fourth quarter and fiscal 2007 year end earnings conference call.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded.

Before we begin I would like to remind everyone of the company's Safe Harbor language.

Please note that some of the information provided in this call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the security law.

These statements concern Deckers's plans, expectation and objective for future operations.

The Company cautions you that a number of risks and uncertainties beyond its control could cause Deckers' actual results to differ materially from those described on this call.

Deckers has explained some of these risks and uncertainties in the risk factor section of its annual report on Form 10-K and it's other document filed with the SEC.

Among these risks is the effect that the company sales are highly sensitive to consumer preference, general economic conditions, to the weather and the choice of its customers to carry and promote its products.

Deckers extends that all of its forward-looking statements and this call will be protected by the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities and Exchange Commission act of 1934 as amended.

Deckers is not obligated to update its forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of future events.

I would now like to turn the conference over to the President and CEO, Angel Martinez.

Please go ahead, sir.

Well, good afternoon to all of you and thanks for joining us.

With me on today's call is Zohar Ziv, our Chief Operating and Chief Executive Officer.

As you saw from our release we ended 2007 with very strong fourth quarter performance as revenues increased more than 56% to a record $194.2 million and diluted earnings per share rose to a record $2.69.

Our results were driven primarily by another excellent holiday season for the Ugg brand.

Sales significant exceeded our expectations, increasing approximately 62% to $178 million versus $110 million in the fourth quarter a year ago.

We experienced very robust full price selling across the entire Ugg line including our core boot business, our women's surf fashion and metropolitan collection, our slippers, our men's casuals and the kids' styles.

We reported meaningful gains in all regions of the country with particular strength in the northeast.

Outside the U.S.

the U.K.

continued to be our fastest growing market while Canada and Benelux region also contributed nicely to our international results.

And finally our consumer direct business which includes both the ecommerce business and our retail stores was up significantly compared to the prior year period.

For Teva fourth quarter sales were on plan while Simple's performance was highlighted by strong sales for ecoSNEAKS across the majority of accounts.

Now for the year.

Fiscal 2007 was also highlighted by record financial results with sales of $448.9 million, up 47.5% from $304.4 million in 2006 and diluted earnings per share of $5.06 up 53.3% from non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.30 in 2006 before taking into account the 2006 adjustments from the restatement related to our China subsidiary and the impairment loss attributable to the partial write down of our Teva trademarks.

In addition we improved our balance sheet finishing the year with more than $168 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments compared to approximately $99 million at the end of 2006.

Equally important to our financial performance was the number of strategic initiatives that we successfully executed throughout the year.

We focused on increasing the market opportunities for all three brands, strengthening our management team and improving our operating platform culminating with the promotion of Zohar Ziv to the newly created position of Chief Operating Officer.

As we continue to grow and expand our business around the world I believe it is necessary to have someone take on the responsibility of overseeing our global operations on a daily basis and I'm confident Zohar is the right person for the job.

We also recognized, reorganized our supply chain structure and hired Mark [Segley] an experienced supply chain executive as Senior VP of Supply Chain and we are currently in the process of hiring an individual to spearhead the growth of our China operation.

We began the process of doubling our distribution capacity here in California and Zohar will touch on these investments in more detail in a moment.

In addition we are in the process of hiring a VP of Human Resources as well as a new CFO to fill the position vacated by Zohar's promotion.

Turning to the brands, for Ugg, 2007 was another milestone year as the brand recorded it's tenth year of double digit growth and surpassed the $300 million annual sales mark.

At the same time we made important progress evolving the product line, expanding our selling seasons and attracting new consumers to the brand.

All that said it is important to note that we believe it is still a small brand globally with a lot of untapped potential.

Full year Ugg sales grew to 64.4% to $347.6 million which reflects a much broader, more diversified fall offering combined with the growth of our spring line.

In early 2007 we experienced very strong sales through with the introduction of our first collection of espadrilles, more luxury sandals and driving Mocs and had a very strong sales run in the second quarter as well, which has historically been the brand's lowest quarter in terms of sales volume.

This past fall we added more fashion styles for our women's line including heels and wedges, featuring more leather and suede than in years past.

These new styles still adhere to our central theme of combining luxury and comfort but provide our customers with more occasion to wear the Ugg brand on daily basis such as to work or out for the evening.

Our boots continue to be the foundation of our business and they too evolved this past year both in terms of color, fabric and as well as styles.

Key items included the [cardi] boot, the crochet boot which was featured on Oprah's favorite thing, and of course the classic and ultra.

In men's we expanded our popular surf collection with new styles of casual footwear that have attracted new male consumers to the brand and created repeat customers who historically have only bought our slippers.

Internationally U.K.

was again a stand out.

The brand's performance there has been very reminiscent of the US several years back and we are hoping to replicate this success across the continent particularly throughout Northern Europe which has an ideal climate for the Ugg brand year round.

So in a nutshell, we delivered a very broad collection of footwear this past year that resonated extremely well with consumers around the world and translated into record period of growth for the Ugg brand.

The same time it was extremely gratifying that our efforts didn't go unnoticed by the industry as the Ugg brand received a Plus award for design excellence in the brand of the year category and the Plus award for design excellence in the boot category from Footwear Plus, one of the leading trade publications.

I'd also like to acknowledge Connie Rishwain, the President of the Ugg brand and her team for their exceptional efforts that led to these outstanding results.

Our goal for Teva in 2007 was to reignite the brand primarily reversing the declining sales trend and regaining retailer confidence.

As we have discussed before, we are in the early stages of a multi year turnaround as we work re-establishing Teva as an outdoor performance brand and attract a younger, more active consumer.

We are pleased with the results from 2007 as sales increased 9.2% to $87.9 million from $80.5 million in 2006.

We got off to a solid start early in the year with very good sell through during the first quarter as consumers reacted positively to the spring line more than half of which, you may recall, was completely new.

This included more technical product and hundred dollar price points featuring our proprietary Raptor strapping systems, Drain Frame design and eVent waterproof materials.

We also significantly expanded Teva's casual offerings.

Despite the overall softness for sandals in April and May brought on by the cold wet weather across much of the country we were very encouraged by the Teva's performance during the first half of 2007.

Importantly the feedback from our retail accounts was very positive and as a result we continued to see a meaningful increase in shelf space and more prominent exposure for the brand across our channels of distribution.

Also driving a turnaround has been our enhanced marketing campaign including more ad pages, more elaborate POP displays and a greater number of retail shopping shops.

Each of these mediums has a great job of show casing our new and expanded product line while highlighting Teva's transformation into the much broader outdoor footwear category.

In addition, we sponsored events like for example in the US, the Teva Mountain Games at Vail, Colorado, the Teva Vail trail running series and the Santa Cruz Surf Kayak Festival in Santa Cruz, California among others.

During the fall we introduced a limited selection of new closed-toe styles as part of our effort to make the second half of the year more meaningful to our business.

Most of these were closed up versions of key items from the spring line such as the Osagon and Raptor stability eVent.

Again this was a small offering but the initial results gave us confidence that long term we can successfully expand Teva's selling season.

I think it's important to point out that internationally Teva continued to maintain its market position.

It has retained its premium status in Europe over the past few years despite taking a step backwards here in the United States.

That said, the majority of the overseas business is our sports sandals which obviously is very dependent on the weather and like we are doing here in the US, we are focused on leveraging Teva's authenticity from white water into a larger global market opportunity within the footwear, the outdoor footwear space in order to take the brand to the next level.

Simple was one of strategic importance as we solidified our position as the world leader in sustainable footwear.

We're very confident that Simple has finally settled into its position as the recognized leader of a new category within the footwear industry.

Simple was recognized by Footwear Plus and given an award for design excellence in the green category.

For the year Simple sales were up $13.5 million up 8.2% from 2006.

The Green Toe line is the pinnacle of the brand Sustainable Initiatives.

This line is made with sustainable materials and distributed across multiple channels including natural foods and health and wellness accounts such as Whole Foods.

Simple is blazing a course in the foot industry by thinking about what sustainability can look like.

The brand's ecoSNEAKS collection are athletically inspired with casual feel to them and in my opinion, provide consumers the first opportunity to support the green movement without having to sacrifice comfort and style.

EcoSNEAKS allows the brand to cast a wider consumer net than where we've been in the past.

The styling of ecoSNEAKS and sustainable roots are allowing Simple to quickly expand its distribution in the more traditional footwear accounts like Nordstrom, Dillard's, Urban Outfitters, Bloomingdale's and Zappos.com.

The collection hit the shelves in late summer and the momentum continued to build throughout the remainder of the year culminating in weekly double digit sell through rates during the fourth quarter.

As you all know the green movement is resonating on a global scale.

We have been quick to identify countries and partners with like minded distributors.

In the past 12 months we signed these new distributors in Canada, Germany and Scandinavia.

It is important to note that Simple's unique voice and sustainability mission is attracting consumers around the world.

Our consumer direct business posted strong gains in 2007 as we continue to grow and evolve this segment of our operations.

First our ecommerce business was up 57.4% to $45.5 million versus $28.9 million a year before.

We saw significant increase in unique website visitors across the board as more and more consumers are searching our website to locate styles, research products in more detail and make purchases.

Our web team has done a terrific job of creating a virtual platform that individually highlights the lifestyle position and complete collection for each of our three brands and we are committed to making further investments in order to enhance the overall consumer experience going forward.

The second piece to our consumer direct business, our retail stores saw revenues increase to $18.4 million in 2007.

As you recall we opened our first Ugg concept store in New York City in December of 2006 and this was followed by a second concept store in Chicago this past October.

We also added an outlet store at Woodbury Commons around Labor Day which brings a total number of company owned stores to seven, each of which performed exceptionally well this past year and surpassed all our expectations.

Before I turn the call over to Zohar who will review the financials, I would like to take this opportunity to thank our entire organization for their hard work.

As a result of their efforts we not only achieved record sales and earning but Deckers Outdoor was named Company of the Year for 2007 by both Footwear Plus and Footwear News, the two leading publications in the footwear industry.

Zohar.

Thank you Angel.

For the fourth quarter of 2007 net sales increased 56.2% to $194.2 million versus $124.4 million for the fourth quarter of last year.

Including sales from the wholesale division as well as the consumer direct business our net sales of Teva products increased 6.8% to $13.9 million in the fourth quarter compared to $13 million in the same period of 2006.

Net sales of Ugg products increased 61.8% to $177.7 million versus $109.9 million for the fourth quarter last year.

Simple brand net sales increased 76.2% to $2.6 million for the quarter versus $1.5 million in the same period last year.

Included in this numbers are ecommerce sales for all three brands of $23.9 million up 60.6% from $14.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2006 and retail store sales of $12.1 million, up 160.8% from $4.7 million in the prior year period.

Also included in the brand sales numbers international sales for all three brands increased 71.1% to $16.5 million compared to $9.7 million in the fourth quarter of last year.

And domestic sales increased 54.9% to $177.7 million compared to $114.7 million in 2006.

Our gross margin for the current quarter was 48.2% compared to 48.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Our margin remains high due to the robust full price selling and low inventory write downs for the Ugg brand.

Our SG&A expenses for the quarter were $36.7 million or 18.9% of net sales compared to $23.3 million or 18.7% of net sales a year ago.

The increase in SG&A expenses in absolute dollars for the fourth quarter was primarily due to increases in our performance based compensation expense related to our higher results as well as commissions.

Our operating margin for the fourth quarter of 2007 was 29.3% of net sales compared to 29.6% last year excluding the impairment charge of approximately $15.3 million.

Our interest income was approximately $1.4 million in the fourth quarter compared to last year's fourth quarter interest income of $447,000.

This increase was a result of higher cash balances maintaining in 2007.

Net earnings for the fourth quarter were $35.4 million or $2.69 per diluted share compared to $12.2 million or $0.95 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of last year on a GAAP basis.

On a non-GAAP basis excluding the restatement adjustment of $300,000 or $0.02 per diluted share and the impairment charge of $11 million or $0.85 per diluted share both incurred in the fourth quarter of 2006, fourth quarter 2007 diluted EPS increased 47.8% over last year.

Now to the full year.

For fiscal 2007 net sales increased 47.5% to $448.9 million versus $304.4 million in 2006.

Including sales from the wholesale division as well as the consumer direct business, our net sales of Teva products increased 9.2% to $87.9 million compared to $80.5 million last year.

Net sales of Ugg products increased 64.4% to $347.6 million versus $211.5 million a year ago.

Simple brand net sales increased 8.2% to $13.5 million versus $12.5 million last year.

Included in this numbers are ecommerce sales for all three brands of $45.5 million up 57.4% from $28.9 million in fiscal 2006 and retail store sales of $18.4 million up 163.3% from $7 million in the prior year.

Also included in the brand sales numbers international sales for all three brands increased 62.6% to $62.3 million compared to $38.3 million and domestic sales increased 45.3% to $386.6 million compared to $266.1 million in 2006.

Our gross margin for the full year was 46.2% which was consistent with the year before but what we believe to be on the high end of our normal range.

It is important to note that the gross margin fluctuates based upon the company's ability to contain material cost mainly sheep skin and labor costs in China, adjust wholesale prices, changes in product costs and control the amount of product close outs and write downs.

Our SG&A expenses for 2007 were $101.9 million or 22.7% of net sales compared to $74 million or 24.3% of net sales a year ago.

The increase in absolute dollars in SG&A expenses was primarily due to increases in our performance based compensation expense related to higher results as well as commissions.

Our operating margin for 2007 was 23.5% of net sales compared to 21.9% last year excluding the impairment charge of approximately $15.3 million in last year's fourth quarter.

Our interest income was approximately $4.9 million in 2007 compared to $2.4 million last year.

This increase was mainly a result of higher cash balances maintained throughout the current year.

Net earnings for the full year was $66.4 million or $5.06 per diluted share compared to $30.6 million or $2.38 per diluted share in 2006 on a GAAP basis.

On a non-GAAP basis excluding the restatement adjustment of $900,000 or $0.07 per diluted share and the impairment charge of $11 million or $0.85 per diluted share both incurred in 2006, 2007 diluted EPS increased 53.3% over 2006.

Our tax rate for the full year was 39.6% compared to 42.6% in 2006.

The decrease in the effective tax rate in 2007 was primarily due to approximately $5 million of impairment loss in 2006 related to the foreign subsidiary that received no tax benefit from the charge as this subsidiary is in a tax rate restriction.

For fiscal 2008 we are currently anticipating a tax rate of approximately 39.5%.

Turning to the balance sheet.

At December 31, 2007, our overall inventories increased to $51.8 million versus $32.4 million at December 31, 2006.

By brand, Ugg inventories were up 97.6% to $27.4 million at December 31, 2007 compared to $13.9 million a year ago.

Teva Inventory increased 31.4% to $20.1 million at December 31, 2007 compared to $15.3 million a year ago.

Simple inventory increased 37 -- 32.7% to $4.3 million as of December 2007 compared to $3.2 million at the end of 2006.

The increase in inventory of all brands was due to the planned early delivery of spring 2008 products in the fourth quarter of 2007 to support the higher expected sales in the first half of 2008 compared to the first half of 2007.

In addition, we ended 2007 with cash, cash equivalence and short-term investments totaling $168.1 million compared to $98.9 million at the end of 2006 and accounts receivables were $72.2 million versus $49.6 million at December 31, 2006.

With regard to our outlook for 2008 based on current visibility, we expect revenues to increase approximately 25% over 2007 levels.

We are also introducing our 2008 diluted earnings per share growth target of approximately 20% over 2007.

This is based on a more normalized gross margin of approximately 45% versus 46.2% in 2007 and SG&A as a percentage of sales in the mid 20s.

With regard to our earnings outlook, we believe it is important to note that in addition to typical yearly increases in our spending, we expect three incremental components to our SG&A in 2008.

First we forecast that our stock compensation will increase by approximately $2.2 million over 2007 levels to $8.8 million.

Second we are in the process of strengthening our management team with several key hires including a Vice President of HR, a Vice President of our China operations and a new CFO.

Combined, we expect this new hires will add incremental $2 million in expenses this coming year.

Third, as Angel mentioned, in order to achieve and execute our growth plan, we are expanding and investing in our distribution facilities.

In December of 2007 we added 437,000 square foot space next to our existing Camarillo distribution center which will double our facility's size.

In addition we are automating our processing system by implementing a computerized tape module which will allow us to more than triple our daily packing capacity from the existing 65,000 pairs per day to about 225,000 pairs per day.

The big module and the outfitting of the additional space are expected to cost about $12 million.

Due to this one time investment the total capital expenditures for 2008 is expected to increase significantly to about $20 million which will also include the cost of opening new stores and the remainder is for our regular ongoing capital expenditures.

As a result the additional distribution center rent and depreciation expense will be roughly up $4 million over last year's level.

Taken together this incremental components total approximately $8 million or $0.37 in diluted earnings per share.

As you know we have not provided any quarterly guidance to date but wanted to take this opportunity to outline our first quarter 2008 growth targets.

We hardly expect revenues to increase approximately 25% and diluted earning per share to be the same as or modestly higher than 2007.

As a reminder, a significant amount of our operating expenses are fixed and spread evenly on an absolute dollar basis throughout each quarter.

Therefore we expect our earnings to grow at a slower rate during the first half of the year which historically has included our lowest volume sales quarter.

We expect the incremental expenses discussed about to increase the first quarter SG&A by approximately $3 million.

For the full year we expect Ugg sales to increase by approximately 27%, Teva sales by approximately 15% and Simple sales to increase approximately 30% over 2007.

I will now turn the call back to Angel for some closing remarks.

Angel.

Thank you, Zohar.

We are obviously coming off a very strong year of growth for the Ugg brand.

However as I've said earlier in the call we believe it is a relatively under developed brand globally particularly in terms of unit sales.

Looking ahead, we not only see significant room for expansion in the first half of the year where the spring line is under developed across the board but considerable opportunity to drive greater sales volumes during the back half of the year with a much broader assortment of footwear and greater floor space at retail.

This spring we are introducing a more evolved product line with 25% more styles than a year ago featuring a larger selection of espadrilles, more ballet flats and up dated versions our luxury sandals and comfort slippers.

Continuing with the trend from the fall and holiday seasons you'll definitely see a greater abundance of fashion and color in the line of spring including more heels and wedges.

Our men's category will be a key focus in 2008 as we debut several new styles of footwear under our casual comfort and rugged collection for every day use.

We are confident that our brand equity and leadership status in luxury and comfort combined with current opportunities to raise the level of excitement in the men's footwear category leaves us well positioned to capture key market share in the years ahead.

Recently, we previewed our entire fall line and the response from retailers was again very strong.

The line is more complete than fall '07 as we have significantly enhanced our men's offering and infused our women's collection with new colors, additional material and greater functionality presenting consumers more reasons than ever to add either their first pair of Ugg to their closet or an additional style to their wardrobe.

Globally the Ugg brand opportunities are even greater.

The brand was until recently only available on a handful of countries outside the U.S.

And even in those markets it wasn't doing a lot of business.

Over the past two years, Collin Clark and his team have done a great job in improving our international operations by working more closely with our distributors to better position and promote the brand and in no place is this more evident than in the U.K.

We are confident with time and appropriate investments the majority of Europe and parts of northern Asia, most notably Japan and China, provide great prospects for growth.

2008 marks the next stage of Teva's re-emergence at retail.

In 2007 we reversed the two year decline in sales trend and this year we look to build on that momentum with a broader assortment of footwear and continued investments in marketing and advertising.

The spring line is stronger and more comprehensive than last year with 50% new styles that target a much larger audience than ever before.

We are excited about the Mesa collection in men's, the collection of casual leather sandals which prebooked very well.

On the women's side, our Kailani collection of fun, colorful casual shoes and sandals and the Ventura collection featuring our cork-based thongs also experienced solid sell through.

In our technology category we expect strong performances from both the open Toachi and the Omnium.

The open Toachi has a very modern heavily look to it and we believe that it will appeal to our large group of core TerraFi customers while the Omnium is a very versatile shoe that can be worn for almost any outdoor activity.

We've also updated our popular Mush series of flip-flops and our Bowen collection of mid-priced leather flip-flops for men and women, both of which we forecast to grow in the spring.

Looking at the back half of the year we'll be introducing our biggest and most complete fall assortment ever that includes multiple collections of unique closed toe cold weather products for men, women and kids.

At a recent OR show feedback was very encouraging as retailers expressed excitement about having a legitimate reason to carry the Teva brand 365 days a year and we've been very pleased with the initial commitment to the line so far.

Internationally, 2008 will be an exciting year for Teva as we focused on further evolving the brand and penetrating new countries most notably China where we recently signed our newest distribution partner.

We have a lot planned in China right out of the gate including 20 large format shopping shops in key department stores followed by two Teva concept shops scheduled to open this May, one in Beijing and the other in Shanghai.

Finally, I want to take this opportunity to announce the global premier of the iMax film, Grand Canyon Adventure, River at Risk just taking place on March 12th in New York city.

As you may recall, Teva partnered with McGillivray Freeman Films and Waterkeeper Alliance to shoot this documentary about water conservation during a 15 day river rafting trip down the Colorado river back in September of 2006.

Included on the trip were Robert F.

Kennedy, Jr.

and many of our sponsored athletes.

The premier will be a major media event for Teva while subsequent openings around the country and a national marketing campaign with retail sweepstakes and a whole lot of promotional activity will provide further exposure for the brand.

We were honored to be part of this historic trip and now look forward to raising important awareness for water issues around the world through this film's release.

Our plan for Simple this year is to continue to innovate and revolutionize the footwear industry with our commitment to eventually making 100% sustainable product.

We'll also strengthen and broaden the brand's message of sustainability to reach more consumers both domestically and overseas with increased distribution and advertising .

We ended 2007 with a lot of positive momentum which supports our expected growth in 2008.

In 2008 Simple's growth will be driven by ecoSNEAKS as we continue to add new accounts both national chain and independent retailers across the country.

In fact, we already are off to a positive start to the year as we are receiving reorders for spring which underscores the viability of this collection and its growing popularity among consumers.

This year we continue to bring the most innovative and sustainable product to the footwear industry with our Green Toe collection.

For women we've added new feminine styles with silhouettes such as ballerinas and mary janes .

This collection continues to push the envelope in terms of material innovation and manufacturing processes for the brand.

This fall we'll introduce our newest premium comfort collection under the Simple brand, Planet Walkers.

We believe these new styles for both men and women are the most comfortable and eco-friendly shoes on the planet.

[Technical difficulty] the feature premium leather from tanneries that incorporate sustainable production techniques as well as outsoles and footbeds made from recycled car tire composites.

Planet Walkers will launch with a 30 day exclusive offering with all the Walking Company's 190 stores in July as part of their month-long sustainable comfort promotion before rolling out to other influential retailers nationwide.

Overseas, we anticipate Simple's growth to accelerate this year.

This will be driven by broader assortment of product at retail and increased penetration within existing markets coupled with the opening of new distributors in China and Singapore.

With regard to our retail expansion plans we now expect to open two more Ugg concept shops in 2008, one in San Francisco in the third quarter and another one on the East coast later in the year.

At the same time we continue to monitor our opportunities for additional locations around the world and expect to have our first company-owned international retail store open within the next 12 months, most likely in London.

In closing, we have developed a very clear strategy for this company and we believe that we are taking the right approach to capitalizing on our full potential and creating value for our shareholders.

This includes ongoing investments in marketing and advertising, R&D, human resources, IT and our global infrastructure in order to properly support each of the brands and achieve the long term growth objectives that we've established.

Again, our goal by 2010 to 2012 is to achieve $750 million in total sales with Ugg representing $500 million, Teva $175 million and Simple $75 million with 30% of that overall figure coming from our international business.

Of course we are well aware of the economic challenges posed by this year's macro environment.

Having said that, we are comfortable with our expectations and are confident in our entire organization's ability to execute our business plan and we move forward with a great deal of passion and excitement about what still lies ahead for this company.

I'll now like to open her up for questions so operator, could you open up

Thank you.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) Our first question comes from Jeffrey Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray & Company.

Congratulations on a fantastic year.

Thank you, Jeff.

Just a couple of quick ones.

You provided a lot of great detail for us but in terms of Q1 given the 25% top line growth, and Zohar you gave us some good brand detail on an annual basis in terms of growth, but anything more you can share with us in Q1, Q2 in terms of Teva?

Last week I heard from you that we were looking at double digit bookings for the Teva product.

Just curious, as we've gotten into the first quarter and if you had some sell through data from the Southern markets, what that looks like and is any part of your more conservative bottom line guidance in Q1 related to reserving for, you know, any potential margin compression that may result from a slower channel for Teva?

Well, we have -- I think from our retailers so far and still very early, we are pretty satisfied with the sell through that we are seeing especially in the new products that's been out there.

Certainly we've got a long way to go in the season.

We expect that perhaps a very tough winter will yield a better spring but I certainly can't predict that.

Jeff, as to the margin compression as you know Q1 is mainly the sell in.

Q2 will be the sell through.

So any margin compression if there will be any, they will be in Q2.

Okay.

So I guess back to the question regarding the growth rate of Teva.

Can you give us better clarity in that 25% growth in Q1.

What are you looking for from Ugg versus Teva versus Simple?

Well, we are not breaking those percentages on a quarterly basis, but you will in macro, look, you will see that the Ugg and Simple growth should be proportionally higher than Teva.

And we are also getting very good response to the fall away product line.

Which if you look at Teva's business historically, there's great upside in the fall.

And the response to the closed-toe footwear particularly shoes like the mountain [scuff] has been exceptional.

We have that product virtually in every order.

So I think that is a nice upside for our Teva expectation.

Okay.

One last thing on Teva.

When will you have a good read for the potential reorder business?

Are you going to be able to tell that towards the end of the first quarter, or when does the season truly begin on a national basis?

Yes, I think that probably ends in the first quarter, late March, early April.

That's when we should start seeing the impact of better weather and consumers getting into spring mode.

Okay.

In terms of your international business and the distributors, the distribution agreements that come to a close here over the next couple of years for several key regions, anything that we can expect to see in 2008 in terms of taking back or acquiring those distributors, and is that factored into the current SG&A forecast?

No, you are not going to see any change to the distributor structure in 2008.

Okay.

And then just lastly.

A lot of questions on sourcing and cost.

Can you share with us your outlook with respect to sheep skin clothing for the Ugg product but sourcing of raw materials overall and what you factored in in terms of inflation?

Regarding 2008 all our cost prices are already fixed.

We agreed to them with the factories.

So we are not anticipating any cost increase either in raw material which is mainly sheep skin for us or in the production cost.

Okay.

Great.

Thanks guys.

Good luck.

Thank you.

And our next question comes from Mitch Kummetz with Robert W.

Baird.

Please go ahead.

Thanks.

Let me add my congratulations.

Thanks Mitch.

I have a few questions on the guidance, specifically the margins and Zohar, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks SG&A sort of mid 20s as a percentage of sales.

I've walked through the numbers that you've given on sales and gross margin and even tax rate, I'm coming up with something that is below that sort of 22, 23% in SG&A.

I'm wondering if I'm doing my math right here.

No.

You are correct.

You are in the right range.

Okay.

That's helpful.

And then I also thought that -- you've taken some people by surprise with the Q1 guidance.

Obviously it seems to be an SG&A situation and Q2 is even a smaller revenue quarter.

I don't know if this might be an opportunity for you guys to make a comment or two about Q2 so that maybe we don't run into a similar situation like we've run into here.

Well, if you are referring to Q2 expenses -- from expenses probably in the same level as Q1.

Okay.

That's helpful.

On the gross margin, I see you guys getting a 45%, which is about 120 basis points below when you came in at '07.

We think about how that should kind of flow first half to second half.

I would assume that you are expecting more of a gross margin drop in the back half than the first half, right?.

I assume you are sort of prudently planning for some close outs in maybe the fourth quarter.

I mean, whether or not those actually happen or not, we'll see but I assume there is some assumption of that at least, right?

Yes.

There are assumptions.

But in terms of first half, second half, are you expecting more -- does your guidance reflect more gross product margin pressure in the back half than the first half?

Yes.

That's correct.

Okay.

And then I know you don't want to speak to hypotheticals, but if we were to assume that you have another great back half with Ugg in '08 and there aren't a lot of close outs -- how should we be thinking about, is 120 basis points drop according to your guidance, is that mostly a reflection that you're expecting some normal level of close outs where if that weren't to occur and you don't have to close out a lot of products, that there could be upside there?

Is that how we should be thinking about that guidance?

I would say that's correct.

As we indicated our cost is fixed for the year.

So any adjustment would be really based on the sell through and the amount of markdown and the write offs.

Okay.

And one last question on the international.

I think it came in at about 14% of sales for '07.

I believe that your 3 to 5 year plan there's an expectation that international grows to be 30% of the business.

Could you just give us a quick run down as to where you are with your international distribution?

What might be your biggest markets there?

What are some other key markets you either haven't developed very much or you haven't even gone into and what's on tap for that business over the next year or two in terms of developing and growing it as a percentage of the total business?

Well, first of all we still have a long way to go in the U.K.

Even though that's our primary driver in Europe.

We are just getting started in the U.K.

The brand is emerging as a year round brand in the U.K.

And the spread and assortment of product, we haven't seen that there yet.

And that's a very strong footwear market.

Secondly there are markets in Europe that are untapped for our brand.

Primarily Germany where we are really just getting going, France where we really have no distribution.

Countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary.

Those are very strong markets potentially for the Ugg brand where we don't have distribution.

And outside of Europe you have to look at markets like China and realize that that is a very strong market potential for the Ugg brand and we are taking steps to establish our premium luxury comfort positioning there.

Those markets particularly in China are brands emerge from a retail foundation so it's important to establish the cache of your brand with a retail presence and that's how we are doing it there.

So in my opinion is that there are still, some very large chunks of the population in Europe and the vast majority of the population in Asia that has yet to experience Ugg comfort and luxury and we really are organizing ourselves to exploit those opportunities.

Is there any data that you can mine from your internet that supports that there is a global business for the Ugg brand?

I don't know how much of your Internet business is captured from outside the U.S.

We process all of our orders from the U.K.

For example in our operations center Internet operations center so we have a very good idea of the demand in the U.K.

And we are long ways from meeting the demand, put it that way, okay.

All right.

Thanks good luck.

(OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) We'll take our next question from Jeff Mintz with Wedbush Morgan Securities.

Thanks very much and I'll add my congratulations as well.

Thank you, Jeff.

Can you talk a little bit -- I know marketing was kind of a big focus this year across the board.

Can you talk a little bit about where that came in?

I know the exact number will be in the K but kind of where that came in for '07 and where you anticipate it to be in '08 on a percent of sales basis, up or down?

Sure.

It's about $17 million.

$17 million.

We don't anticipate any deviation from that ratio of marketing to sales.

I think that the key thing for us in 2008 specific to the Ugg brand but also important for Simple and Teva is the retail presence and the presentation of the brand and the telling of the story at retail.

So what you'll see from us in 2008 with Ugg for example is not necessarily an increase in the number of pages that we are running in publication but you'll see an enhanced retail presence across our entire distribution channel.

And we are doing that in partnership with our retailers and we are making those key investments as appropriate.

You'll see shopping shops, you'll see enhanced presentations of year round products and you'll see the same thing for Simple and for Teva.

Okay.

Great.

That's helpful.

And then just on the question of distribution in the U.S.

Obviously you've talked before how there's a lot of the country where you are under penetrated in terms of getting into stores.

Kind of now that we are through fall of '07, where do you feel you are in terms of distribution through kind of the middle and the southeastern U.S.?

Again I think we still have a long ways to go.

We know from our conversations with retailers that they feel that the market for our products especially if you roll in the spring line in those parts of the country and the way the line is evolving that there's a terrific opportunity for the brand.

They've endorsed that belief with a big chunk of their open to buy coming our way.

We think the brand as I've said all along is undeveloped and we have a fairly restrictive distribution philosophy because it is my opinion that our products are premium in nature and we want to assure quality in both presentation and the products, in the production of the product we make.

So we are very careful about rolling out our distribution beyond the existing model.

That said, when we do want to expand into a region we do so with committed partners and that's really an important component of how we are growing our brand.

You won't just see suddenly Ugg products available where you have not seen it before and limited to one or two styles.

You'll see a full presentation of Ugg product, men's, women's, kids'.

You'll see year round, spring and fall.

You'll see boots.

You'll see slippers.

You'll see the whole package and I think that that's a very important component of our growth strategy in the U.S.

Okay.

And just finally on the Ugg business in Q1, which you didn't guide it specifically, but can you give us some sense, I know you are taking greater advantage of the opportunity to sell the boots post Christmas this year.

So can you just give us some sense of where the growth is coming from for Ugg in Q1?

Is it more weighted towards the boots?

How do you see the spring orders doing on that product particularly?

Well you know, up until last year I think it's safe to say that we really didn't know what kind of opportunity we'd have in Q1 with the Ugg brand because we've never had the inventory.

This year we really decided that we were going to develop our Q1 business in light in closer relationship to the demand that we feel is out there so our slipper business continues to evolve very nicely for Q1, our boots business continues to perform and then of course we have the introduction of the sandals and espadrilles which is a little early in the season yet but all indications from the warm climate markets are that those products are selling through and selling through quite well.

So it goes if you remember a couple of years ago, we kind of disappeared at retail as soon as Q1 hit and now you are seeing enhanced and greater assortment of products in Q1 which does certainly bode well for our sell through and our performance in Q1 and 2.

Okay.

Great.

Congratulations again and good luck.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Todd Slater with Lazard Capital Markets.

Please go ahead sir.

Thank you very much.

Kudos all around.

Can you go over a little bit again the formly increment and SG&A in the first quarter, break it down a little bit for us in terms of the largest bucket?

Is this number something that we should expect in each of the -- evenly across the four quarters or is it just the first -- I imagine it's across the quarters but how much should we be, anticipating?

As we've said, Todd, for the full year it was $8 million and we said the fourth quarter was $3 million out of that.

The remainder $5 million is going to be throughout I would say evenly throughout the next three quarters.

I'm sorry.

So 8 million for the year.

It was $8 million for the year.

For '08?

Correct.

That's about $0.36 per share or something like that.

That's included, embedded in your let's call it 607 guidance.

That was embedded in the guidance.

And I think you went over the human resources and --

It's a component of three items as I said, enhancing the management team -- the biggest piece was doubling the size for our distribution center and the implementation of the big module.

Got it.

Okay.

The depreciation expense, okay?

Yes.

Sure.

okay, great.

Thanks.

And then what's the way to think about your international opportunity globally in terms of your mix, as Mitch pointed out, is about 14% of sales this year?

And also where do you think -- has your thinking changed and where that can get to?

And talk a little bit if you could about the profitability profile of that business as if it differs from here and if so, how?

Well, I'm confident that our goal of 30% of our business coming from internationally is a realistic and achievable goal.

We have spent the last couple of years building a foundation for growth internationally.

We have been working with our distributors to establish a flow of products that's appropriate to grow their business from.

We have certainly the growth in the Ugg brand for them represents significant investment.

They've been opening show rooms.

They've been developing retail presence programs.

They've been marketing the brand and using the images that we provide.

So all those things are really part of the foundation you need to then come in with a broader spread and assortment of product at retail, just like in the United States.

This brand began with now what we call our classic styles and in other parts of the world, the brand is growing and beginning with those classic styles but it's much more rapidly accelerating to the full breadth and assortment of product now that we actually have that kind of product.

And so I'm really excited about what's happening on the international front and I see us really doing some great things there.

What was the other part of it?

Regarding -- Todd you asked about the profitability.

Overall when, on the international business, the overall impact on the bottom line should be positive.

There will be higher expenses of course, but we'll be getting the double margin that should compensate for that.

So anything that will do it will be a great [indistinct].

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Lastly I want to touch on the direct business if I may.

Both the ecommerce and the retail pieces just the numbers are off the chart growing faster than any other piece of your business.

Has your thinking evolved at all in terms of the opportunity of vertical retail stores and talk a little bit about how that piece is performing relative to your expectations and how many you think you can operate around the world?

I think philosophically we operate our retail stores to enhance our our wholesale business.

I am not at that place that says we're going to supplant our wholesale business with our own retail business.

I think retailers are quite expert at managing retail.

They know what they are doing and the good ones do it exceptionally well.

We feel that our brand needs to be positioned and exposed in a complete way and it's really a function of real estate.

Most stores just don't have the room to show case the product and the breadth and assortment that we have in mind.

And part of it is also to test our concepts with consumers.

And that is a very big component of the kind of retail that we are doing.

We learn a lot from the assortments that we put together from the consumer feedback and that allows us to do a much better job in refining the product mix for retailers in a sense editing the line before we ever get to a wholesale presentation.

And I think retailers in the end appreciate that and know the value of something like that.

Is it fair to say that the profitability metrics in your own stores are where you'd like them to be?

I don't believe in opening stores that don't make money, so, yes.

I'm satisfied with that.

Great.

Thank you.

Thanks.

And our final question comes from Howard Tubin with RBC Capital Markets.

Please go ahead, sir.

Hey guys just a couple of questions.

Can you talk about inventory level and where you think it will be at the end of the first quarter?

Well, you know, the inventory level we have not been providing guidance on that basis.

What we are doing and you've seen it probably from where the inventory was the level at the end of Q4 will bring the inventory early to accommodate our expected higher sales.

Also it has to do a function of capacity from the factories and space in our warehouses.

The other thing I'd like to add is this year I think we have greater visibility into our top line than we've ever had.

We are feeling very confident in our strategy in our plan and I think that the nature of retail being what it is.

In other words a retailer will bring more of what sells in and less of what doesn't and the performance of the Ugg brand in 2007 bodes well for retailers attitude about the brand in 2008 and they've made those commitments.

So we have better visibility than we really ever had.

Certainly, since I've been here and that's allowing us to do a much better job at planning.

So in that sense we have a high degree of confidence.

We are really not worried about the inventory situation.

That's great.

Just one question on cash.

You guys have almost $13.00 per share in cash now.

So I guess two questions.

One, what are you going to do with it all?

And two, is there any auction rate security exposure in that cash or marketable security balance?

Yes.

We have I've said before my attitude is that we are constantly on the look for the next brand that we can add to our portfolio.

It will be a lifestyle brand.

It will be a brand that we feel has great potential that we can develop given our unique approach I believe to building brands.

That said, given the economy and the situation we face in a macro level, it's not a bad time to have a fair amount of cash.

So we are fairly comfortable that it gives us tremendous flexibility and in that flexibility when opportunity comes up I think we'll be in a good position to take advantage of it.

And Howard, to your question about the auction rate security, less than 2% of our portfolio is in that instrument.

That's great.

Thanks.

Thank you.

Thank you.

I want to thank you all for participating in the call and for your support this year.

I know I speak for everyone in Deckers Outdoor Corporation when I say how much we value our investors and how committed we are to success.

So thank you very much.

We look forward to the next quarter.

And this does conclude today's conference.

We thank you for your participation.

You may now disconnect.