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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Deere & Company third-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早安,歡迎參加迪爾公司(Deere & Company)第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Chris Seibert, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我想把電話交給投資人關係總監 Chris Seibert 先生。謝謝。您可以開始了。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Hello. Welcome, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Joining me on the call today are Brent Norwood, Chief Financial Officer; Deanna Kovar, President, Worldwide Agriculture and Turf Division, Production & Precision Ag, Sales and Marketing Regions of the Americas and Australia; and Dan Pulley, Manager, Investor Communications.
各位好。歡迎各位,並感謝加入今天的電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:財務長 Brent Norwood;全球農業與草坪事業部總裁 Deanna Kovar(負責生產與精準農業、美洲與澳洲的銷售與行銷區域);以及投資人溝通經理 Dan Pulley。
Today, we'll take a closer look at Deere's third-quarter earnings, then spend some time talking about our end markets and our current outlook for fiscal 2026. After that, we'll respond to your questions. Please note that slides are available to complement the call this morning. They can be accessed on our website at johndeere.com/earnings.
今天我們將更深入檢視迪爾第三季財報,並花一些時間談談我們的終端市場,以及我們對 2026 會計年度的最新展望。之後,我們將回覆各位的提問。請注意,今天早上的電話會議有投影片可供搭配參考。可至我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 取得。
First, a reminder. This call is broadcast live on the internet and recorded for future transmission and use by Deere & Company. Any other use, recording, or transmission of any portion of this copyrighted broadcast without the express written consent of Deere is strictly prohibited. Participants in the call, including the Q&A session, agree that their likeness and remarks in all media may be stored and used as part of the earnings call.
首先提醒各位。本次電話會議透過網路直播,並錄音供 Deere & Company 日後轉播與使用。未經 Deere 明確書面同意,嚴禁以任何方式使用、錄製或傳輸本受著作權保護之廣播的任何部分。參與本次電話會議者(包含問答環節)同意其肖像與發言可在所有媒體中被儲存並使用,作為本次財報電話會議的一部分。
This call includes forward-looking statements concerning the company's plans and projections for the future that are subject to uncertainties, risks, change in circumstances, and other factors that are difficult to predict. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's most recent Form 8-K, risk factors in the annual Form 10-K, as updated by reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
本次電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,涉及公司對未來的計畫與預測;此類陳述受不確定性、風險、情勢變化及其他難以預測因素影響。關於可能導致實際結果與前述陳述出現重大差異之因素的更多資訊,載於公司最新的 Form 8-K、年度 Form 10-K 中的風險因素,以及向美國證券交易委員會提交之報告所更新的內容。
This call also may include financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, GAAP. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, is included in the release and posted on our website at johndeere.com/earnings under Quarterly Earnings & Events.
本次電話會議亦可能包含不符合美國一般公認會計原則(GAAP)的財務衡量指標。關於這些指標的更多資訊(包含與可比 GAAP 指標的調節),已收錄於新聞稿,並張貼於我們網站 johndeere.com/earnings 的「Quarterly Earnings & Events」頁面。
I will now turn the call over to Dan Pulley.
現在我把電話交給 Dan Pulley。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Good morning, and thank you for joining us.
早安,感謝各位加入我們。
John Deere delivered a strong third quarter, with Equipment Operations achieving 14.4% operating margin. While conditions vary across our end markets, we continue to see pockets of strength. In agriculture, producers remain focused on managing profitability impacted by fluctuating commodity fundamentals and uncertainty around input costs and crop demand, all of which are influencing capital spending decisions by region. At the same time, construction, compact construction, and turf markets remain supported by healthy project activity and steady demand fundamentals, reinforcing the value of Deere's diversified portfolio.
John Deere 第三季表現強勁,設備營運(Equipment Operations)達成 14.4% 的營業利益率。儘管各終端市場狀況不一,我們仍持續看到部分領域展現韌性與強勢。在農業方面,生產者仍專注於管理獲利能力;獲利受到大宗商品基本面波動、投入成本與作物需求不確定性影響,這些因素正按地區影響資本支出決策。同時,營建、輕型營建與草坪市場仍受惠於健康的專案活動與穩健的需求基本面,進一步凸顯迪爾多元化產品組合的價值。
Against this backdrop, Deere's performance continues to underscore the strength of our operating model across our factories, warehouses, and offices. Teams executed well throughout the quarter, delivering strong performance while maintaining cost discipline. We also made continued progress improving inventory health, positioning Deere, our dealers, and our customers to respond effectively as market conditions evolve.
在此背景下,迪爾的表現持續凸顯我們營運模式在工廠、倉儲與辦公室各環節的強韌性。各團隊在本季執行到位,在維持成本紀律的同時交出強勁成績。我們也持續推進庫存健康度的改善,使迪爾、經銷商與客戶能在市場狀況演變時更有效地因應。
We now begin with slide 3 and our results for the third quarter. Net sales and revenues were up 5% to $12.608 billion, and net sales for the Equipment Operations were up 6% to $10.999 billion. Net income attributable to Deere & Company for the quarter was $1.379 billion, or $5.10 per diluted share.
接下來我們從投影片第 3 頁開始,說明第三季業績。淨銷售與營收成長 5% 至 126.08 億美元;設備營運的淨銷售成長 6% 至 109.99 億美元。本季歸屬於 Deere & Company 的淨利為 13.79 億美元,稀釋後每股盈餘為 5.10 美元。
Diving into our individual business segments, we'll start with Production & Precision Ag on slide 4. Net sales of $3.998 billion were down 6% compared to the third quarter last year, primarily due to lower shipment volumes partially offset by favorable price realization and currency translation. Price realization was positive by 2.5 points. Currency translation was also positive by slightly over 1.5 points.
接著看各個事業部門,先從投影片第 4 頁的生產與精準農業(Production & Precision Ag)開始。淨銷售為 39.98 億美元,較去年第三季下滑 6%,主要因出貨量下降;部分被有利的價格實現與匯率換算所抵銷。價格實現正向貢獻 2.5 個百分點。匯率換算亦為正向,略高於 1.5 個百分點。
Operating profit was $527 million, with a 13.2% operating margin for the segment. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher production costs, which were partially offset by favorable price realization and the effects of currency exchange.
營業利益為 5.27 億美元,該部門營業利益率為 13.2%。年對年下滑主要因出貨量較低與生產成本較高;部分被有利的價格實現與匯率變動影響所抵銷。
Next, we'll turn to Small Ag & Turf on slide 5. Net sales were up 12% year over year, totaling $3.383 billion in the third quarter due to higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. The price realization was positive by a little over 1.5 points. Currency translation was negative by roughly 0.5 points.
接著看投影片第 5 頁的小型農業與草坪(Small Ag & Turf)。第三季淨銷售年增 12% 至 33.83 億美元,主要因出貨量增加與有利的價格實現。價格實現正向貢獻略高於 1.5 個百分點。匯率換算約為負 0.5 個百分點。
Operating profit increased year over year to $622 million, leading to an 18.4% operating margin. The increase was primarily due to higher shipment volumes and sales mix, along with favorable price realization, partially offset by higher production costs.
營業利益年對年增加至 6.22 億美元,帶動 18.4% 的營業利益率。成長主要來自出貨量增加與銷售組合改善,以及有利的價格實現;部分被較高的生產成本所抵銷。
Slide 6 gives our industry outlook for Ag and Turf markets globally for 2026. In the US and Canada, we continue to expect the large ag equipment industry sales to decline 15% to 20% year over year, as farm profitability remains muted and producers navigate elevated input costs, commodity price volatility, and the ongoing uncertainty around agricultural markets.
投影片第 6 頁提供我們對 2026 年全球農業與草坪市場的產業展望。在美國與加拿大,我們仍預期大型農業設備產業銷售年減 15% 至 20%,因農場獲利仍偏弱,且生產者正面對高企的投入成本、大宗商品價格波動,以及農業市場持續存在的不確定性。
The Small Ag & Turf industry in the US and Canada remains relatively stable, with industry sales expected to be flat to up 5%. Healthy margins within the dairy and livestock sector, coupled with steady demand in residential and commercial loaning, continue to support the outlook.
美國與加拿大的小型農業與草坪產業相對穩定,預期產業銷售持平至成長 5%。乳品與畜牧部門的健康利潤率,加上住宅與商用割草(lawn)需求穩健,持續支撐整體展望。
Shifting to Europe. We now expect industry sales to be approximately flat for the year, reflecting softer market conditions and continued pressure on arable farm profitability. Favorable dairy margins continue to support the broader outlook.
接著看歐洲。我們目前預期今年產業銷售約為持平,反映市場狀況轉弱,以及耕作農場獲利能力持續承壓。有利的乳品利潤率仍持續支撐整體展望。
In South America, elevated production costs and higher interest rates continue to pressure farm economics and impact equipment purchase decisions. We now expect the industry outlook to be down 15% to 20%.
在南美洲,偏高的生產成本與較高利率持續壓縮農場經濟性,並影響設備採購決策。我們目前預期產業展望將下滑 15% 至 20%。
Lastly, in Asia, we continue to expect industry sales to remain approximately flat, supported by relatively stable end market conditions across the region following the modest improvements in India we communicated last quarter.
最後,在亞洲,我們仍預期產業銷售大致持平;在我們上季所提及印度市場小幅改善之後,區域內終端市場狀況相對穩定,支撐此一預期。
Moving on to our segment forecast beginning on slide 7. For Production & Precision Ag, we've trended toward the bottom end of our prior guidance range and now expect net sales to be down approximately 10% for the year. This update reflects further industry softening within South America and Europe. The forecast also includes 1 point of positive price realization for the year, as well as close to 2.5 points of favorable currency translation. Our full-year forecast for the segment's operating margin has been narrowed and is now between 11% and 12%.
接著看從投影片第 7 頁開始的部門預測。就生產與精準農業而言,我們的趨勢偏向先前指引區間的下緣,目前預期全年淨銷售約下滑 10%。此更新反映南美洲與歐洲產業進一步轉弱。該預測亦包含全年 1 個百分點的正向價格實現,以及接近 2.5 個百分點的有利匯率換算。我們已縮窄該部門全年營業利益率預測區間,目前為 11% 至 12%。
Slide 8 covers our forecast for Small Ag & Turf segment. We continue to expect net sales to be up approximately 15% for the full year. This guide includes 1.5 points of positive price realization, as well as roughly 0.5 points of favorable currency translation. The segment's operating margin guide has been increased to between 14.5% and 15.5%.
投影片 8 涵蓋我們對小型農業與草坪(Small Ag & Turf)事業部門的預測。我們仍預期全年淨銷售額約成長 15%。此指引包含 1.5 個百分點的正向價格實現,以及約 0.5 個百分點的有利匯率換算。該部門的營業利益率指引已上調至 14.5% 至 15.5% 之間。
Shifting now to Construction & Forestry on slide 9. Net sales for the quarter were up 18% year over year to $3.618 billion, a result of higher shipment volumes and favorable price realization. Price realization was positive by 8 points, reflecting year-over-year impact of lapping retail incentive programs from the prior year, combined with favorable pricing in the current year. Currency translation was also positive by roughly 0.5 points. Operating profit of $436 million was up year over year, resulting in a 12.1% operating margin, driven by a favorable price realization, which was partially offset by higher SA&G and R&D costs.
接著看投影片 9 的建築與林業(Construction & Forestry)。本季淨銷售額年增 18% 至 36.18 億美元,主要受惠於出貨量增加及有利的價格實現。價格實現正向貢獻 8 個百分點,反映去年同期零售激勵方案的基期效應,以及本年度有利的定價。匯率換算亦正向貢獻約 0.5 個百分點。營業利益為 4.36 億美元,較去年同期增加,營業利益率為 12.1%,主要由有利的價格實現帶動,但部分被較高的 SA&G 與研發(R&D)成本所抵銷。
Slide 10 provides an update to our 2026 Construction & Forestry industry outlook. Industry sales for earthmoving equipment in the US and Canada are now expected to be up 5% to 10% for construction equipment and up 5% for compact construction equipment, reflecting strong demand from large-scale infrastructure, data center, and energy-related projects, as well as continued investment in rental fleet to support elevated levels of end market activity.
投影片 10 提供我們對 2026 年建築與林業產業展望的更新。美國與加拿大的土方設備產業銷售目前預期:建築設備年增 5% 至 10%,小型建築設備年增 5%。此反映大型基礎建設、資料中心與能源相關專案的強勁需求,以及租賃機隊持續投資,以支撐終端市場活動維持在較高水準。
Within global forestry, we now expect the industry to be down 10% for the year as subdued residential construction activity and softer log and lumber prices continue to weigh on equipment demand, especially in North America. The projection for global road building market remains steady at up approximately 10% for the year, supported by favorable infrastructure spending trends, healthy contractor backlogs, and continued investment in road construction across key regions.
在全球林業方面,我們目前預期全年產業將下滑 10%,因住宅建築活動低迷,以及原木與木材價格走弱持續壓抑設備需求,尤其在北美更為明顯。全球道路建設市場的預測維持不變,全年約成長 10%,受惠於有利的基礎建設支出趨勢、承包商在手訂單(backlog)健康,以及主要地區持續投入道路建設。
Moving on to the Construction & Forestry segment outlook on slide 11. The 2026 net sales forecast remains steady at up approximately 20% for the full year. The guidance for the year now includes 3 points of favorable price realization and approximately 1.5 points of favorable currency translation. The forecast for this segment's operating margin has been tightened to between 10.5% and 11.5% for the year.
接著看投影片 11 的建築與林業部門展望。2026 年淨銷售額預測維持不變,全年約成長 20%。本年度指引目前包含 3 個百分點的有利價格實現,以及約 1.5 個百分點的有利匯率換算。該部門全年營業利益率預測區間已收斂至 10.5% 至 11.5%。
Transitioning to our Financial Services operations on slide 12. Worldwide Financial Services net income attributable to Deere & Company in the third quarter was $219 million. Net income was higher in the quarter due to favorable price financing spreads, partially offset by the impact of lower average portfolio compared to the prior year. For fiscal year 2026, our full-year outlook has increased to $870 million.
接著看投影片 12 的金融服務(Financial Services)業務。第三季歸屬於 Deere & Company 的全球金融服務淨利為 2.19 億美元。本季淨利較高,主要因融資利差(price financing spreads)有利,但部分被平均投資組合規模較去年同期下降的影響所抵銷。2026 會計年度全年展望已上調至 8.70 億美元。
On slide 13, we outline our guidance for net income, effective tax rate, and operating cash flows. For fiscal year 2026, we improved our net income outlook, raising it to a range of $4.75 billion to $5 billion, reflecting the strong results delivered in the quarter and our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year. This guidance continues to reflect an effective tax rate between 24% and 26%. And lastly, cash flow expectations from the Equipment Operations have also improved to now be in the range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion.
在投影片 13,我們說明淨利、有效稅率與營運現金流的指引。就 2026 會計年度而言,我們上調淨利展望至 47.5 億至 50 億美元區間,反映本季交出的強勁成果,以及我們對今年剩餘期間展望的信心。此指引仍反映有效稅率介於 24% 至 26%。最後,設備營運(Equipment Operations)的現金流預期亦有所改善,目前為 50 億至 55 億美元區間。
This concludes our formal comments. We'll now shift to a discussion to cover a few topics specific to the quarter. Starting off with Deere's performance in the third quarter, Equipment Operations net sales improved 6% year over year, and we saw Equipment Operations operating margins come in at 14.4%.
以上為我們的正式說明。接下來我們將轉入討論,涵蓋幾個本季特定主題。先從 Deere 第三季表現談起,設備營運淨銷售額年增 6%,設備營運營業利益率為 14.4%。
Chris, can you provide some additional color on the performance for this quarter?
Chris,你能否就本季表現提供更多補充說明?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Absolutely, Dan. This quarter's result reflects strong execution across all business segments amid a dynamic market and evolving operating environment. Our factories performed exceptionally well and exceeded expectations on production output, combined with disciplined execution across the business and favorable price realization. This strong operational performance drove results above company and consensus expectations for both revenue and profitability.
當然可以,Dan。本季結果反映在市場動態且營運環境持續演變之下,我們在所有業務部門皆展現強勁的執行力。我們的工廠表現極為出色,產出超出預期,並結合全公司紀律性的執行與有利的價格實現。這樣的強勁營運表現,使營收與獲利均高於公司內部與市場共識預期。
The quarter also included multiple tariff-related developments. We recognized $110 million of incremental refunds in Q3, slightly above expectations due to the timing of the Phase 2 IEEPA refund approvals. As a result, total refunds recognized in fiscal year 2026 now stand at $382 million. Notably, our current outlook assumes no further refund activity during the balance of the fiscal year. Looking beyond refunds, following the changes to the Section 122, 232, and 301 tariff policies, we now expect direct tariff expense of approximately $1.1 billion for the fiscal year, excluding IEEPA refunds.
本季也包含多項與關稅相關的進展。我們在第三季認列 1.10 億美元的額外退稅(refunds),由於第二階段 IEEPA 退稅核准時點的影響,略高於預期。因此,2026 會計年度迄今認列的退稅總額目前為 3.82 億美元。值得注意的是,我們目前的展望假設在本會計年度剩餘期間不會再有進一步的退稅活動。除退稅之外,隨著第 122、232 與 301 條關稅政策的變更,我們目前預期本會計年度直接關稅費用約為 11 億美元(不含 IEEPA 退稅)。
Overall, the quarter underscores the strength and discipline of our operating model. Strong execution across the business, together with improving tariff dynamics, position us well as we close out 2026.
整體而言,本季凸顯我們營運模式的韌性與紀律。全公司強勁的執行力,加上關稅動態改善,使我們在 2026 年收官之際具備良好態勢。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
This is Brent. I'd just add one more point on the outlook. I remain very confident in our team's ability to finish strong for the fiscal year. The combination of our performance year to date and a strong fourth-quarter order book across all segments has enabled us to narrow our guidance ranges and improve our net income and cash flow forecast despite a very dynamic market backdrop.
我是 Brent。我想就展望再補充一點。我對我們團隊在本會計年度強勢收尾的能力仍非常有信心。結合我們年初至今的表現,以及各部門第四季強勁的訂單簿(order book),即使市場背景非常動態,我們仍得以縮窄指引區間,並上調淨利與現金流預測。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks for the additional details, both Brent and Chris. Building on that, we had a few adjustments in the guidance ranges. Can you help walk us through the rationale, starting with C&F?
感謝 Brent 與 Chris 的補充細節。延續這點,我們對指引區間做了一些調整。你能協助我們說明其背後原因,先從 C&F 開始嗎?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Sure. For C&F, we maintained our sales guidance of approximately 20% year-over-year growth, and we narrowed our full-year margin guidance to between 10.5% to 11.5%, reflecting continued confidence in the business and the outlook for the remainder of this year.
當然。就 C&F 而言,我們維持約 20% 的年增銷售指引,並將全年毛利率指引區間收斂至 10.5% 至 11.5%,反映我們對業務表現及今年剩餘期間展望的持續信心。
The order books for 2026 are largely full, as demand fundamentals remain favorable across both the earthmoving and road building end markets. Large-scale infrastructure projects, data center construction, and pipeline activity continue to support robust customer demand. As a result, customer backlogs now extend well into fiscal year 2027, providing healthy visibility and optimism for next year and support our increased 2026 industry guide for construction equipment to be up 5% to 10%.
2026 年的訂單簿大致已滿,因土方與道路建設兩大終端市場的需求基本面仍然有利。大型基礎建設專案、資料中心建置與管線活動持續支撐強勁的客戶需求。因此,客戶在手訂單目前已延伸至 2027 會計年度,提供良好的能見度與對明年的樂觀預期,並支撐我們將 2026 年建築設備產業指引上調至年增 5% 至 10%。
While we have increased production rates across our construction factories, continued order strength and retail momentum now have us producing modestly below retail demand. This puts field inventories at a healthy starting position for next year and enables our dealers to support measured expansion of their rental fleets going into 2027.
雖然我們已提高建築工廠的產能稼動率,但持續強勁的訂單與零售動能,使我們目前的產量仍略低於零售需求。這使通路端庫存(field inventories)在明年有健康的起始水位,並讓經銷商在邁入 2027 年時能夠支持其租賃機隊的有序擴張。
We are also seeing strong momentum across our technology portfolio. Factory installed smart-grade adoption has increased more than 50% year to date, reflecting the growing role of technology in everyday construction operations. At the same time, sales of our job site safety solutions have increased nearly 40% year over year, as customers increasingly invest in technologies that improve productivity, reduce rework, and enhance safety across the job site.
我們也看到我們的科技產品組合展現強勁動能。工廠安裝的智慧等級採用率今年迄今已提升超過50%,反映科技在日常施工營運中的角色日益重要。同時,我們的工地安全解決方案銷售額年增近40%,因客戶愈來愈投資於可提升生產力、降低返工並強化工地安全的技術。
Overall, we remain encouraged by the outlook for the C&F business. With steady end market demand, healthy customer backlogs, and increasing adoption of our technology solutions, we believe Construction & Forestry is well positioned as we close out '26 and move into 2027.
整體而言,我們對C&F業務的前景仍感到鼓舞。在終端市場需求穩健、客戶在手訂單健康,以及我們科技解決方案採用率持續提升的帶動下,我們相信在結束'26並邁入2027之際,建築與林業(Construction & Forestry)具備良好定位。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
This is Brent. I'd add one final perspective on Construction & Forestry. Chris highlighted the strong growth opportunity we are seeing in both our precision construction technologies and our construction portfolio. As we think about our Leap Ambitions, C&F represents one of the most significant opportunities across Deere, both from a growth standpoint and in terms of the value we can create for customers.
我是Brent。我想就建築與林業再補充最後一點觀點。Chris強調了我們在精準施工技術與建築產品組合兩方面所看到的強勁成長機會。在思考我們的Leap Ambitions時,C&F是Deere全公司最重要的機會之一,不僅在成長面向,也在於我們能為客戶創造的價值。
Across both agriculture and construction, labor remains constrained and customers increasingly rely on technology to do more with less. Deere has a long track record of addressing those challenges in agriculture, and we are seeing similar momentum in construction now.
在農業與建築兩個領域,勞動力仍然吃緊,客戶愈來愈依賴科技以更少資源完成更多工作。Deere在農業領域長期以來一直致力於解決這些挑戰,而我們現在也在建築領域看到類似的動能。
Whether through technology adoption, expansion of our digital ecosystem with solutions like Tenna, or growth of our equipment portfolio, we see a strong runway ahead. Combined with a favorable end market backdrop, these opportunities position Construction & Forestry to be an increasingly important contributor to Deere's long-term growth strategy.
無論是透過科技採用、以Tenna等解決方案擴展我們的數位生態系,或是擴大我們的設備產品組合,我們都看到前方有很長的成長跑道。再加上有利的終端市場背景,這些機會使建築與林業成為Deere長期成長策略中愈來愈重要的貢獻者。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks, Brent. Chris, can you now walk us through the Small Ag & Turf business?
謝謝你,Brent。Chris,你現在可以帶我們了解小型農業與草坪(Small Ag & Turf)業務嗎?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Yes. While market conditions within Small Ag & Turf vary by end customer and geography, the overall demand environment remains positive and consistent with our expectations, with order books that support the remaining sales outlook for 2026.
好的。雖然小型農業與草坪的市場狀況會因終端客戶與地理區域而異,但整體需求環境仍然正向,且符合我們的預期;目前的訂單量也支撐2026年剩餘期間的銷售展望。
Our dairy and livestock customers experienced exceptionally strong farm cash flows in 2025 and have been able to maintain healthy margins in 2026, supported by strong beef prices. As a result, they continue to invest selectively in productivity-enhancing equipment and solutions that improve operating efficiency and support long-term profitability.
我們的乳品與畜牧客戶在2025年經歷了特別強勁的農場現金流,並在2026年在強勁牛肉價格支撐下維持健康的利潤率。因此,他們仍持續選擇性投資於可提升生產力的設備與解決方案,以改善營運效率並支持長期獲利能力。
In turf, we continue to see encouraging trends across both our residential and commercial mowing markets. Demand in these categories has improved year over year as the industry progresses toward more normalized levels, following several years of inventory and demand adjustments. Outside the US, India's small tractor market continues to grow, building on a strong 2025 and supported by solid farmer liquidity following the spring harvest.
在草坪業務方面,我們在住宅與商用割草市場都持續看到令人鼓舞的趨勢。在經歷數年的庫存與需求調整後,隨著產業朝向更正常化的水準發展,這些類別的需求已較去年改善。在美國以外,印度的小型拖拉機市場在2025年強勁表現的基礎上持續成長,並受惠於春收後農民流動性充裕。
From a profitability standpoint, Small Ag & Turf also benefited this quarter from the favorable impact of the IEEPA refunds and the adjustments to Section 232 tariff policies. As you combine this with strong execution across the business, these factors resulted in an improved financial performance for the year. We have now increased and narrowed our full-year operating margin outlook to 14.5% to 15.5%, reflecting both the favorable policy environment and our confidence in the team's ability to continue executing at a high level as we finish this year.
從獲利角度來看,小型農業與草坪本季也受惠於IEEPA退稅以及第232條關稅政策調整所帶來的有利影響。再加上業務端強勁的執行力,這些因素使本年度財務表現有所改善。我們已上調並收斂全年營業利益率展望至14.5%至15.5%,反映有利的政策環境,以及我們對團隊在今年剩餘期間持續高水準執行的信心。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Before we move on, I'd like to take a moment to recognize the Small Ag & Turf team. The strong results delivered so far this year are the outcome of exceptional execution across the organization. From managing costs and production to supporting our customers and dealers, the team has consistently performed at a high level.
在我們繼續之前,我想花點時間表揚小型農業與草坪團隊。今年迄今所交出的強勁成果,是整個組織卓越執行力的結果。從成本與生產管理,到支援客戶與經銷商,團隊始終維持高水準表現。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thank you, Chris and Brent. Shifting now to Production & Precision Ag. Deanna, could you share your perspective on the business in the current market environment?
謝謝你,Chris和Brent。接著我們轉到生產與精準農業(Production & Precision Ag)。Deanna,你能分享在目前市場環境下對該業務的看法嗎?
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Of course, Dan. Within Production & Precision Ag this quarter, we have seen softer demand conditions in both South America and Europe, while North America has remained stable. Despite those regional differences, overall demand has evolved largely in line with our expectations, and our order books are now effectively full for the year. As we move through the remainder of 2026, our focus is on executing to our production plans, delivering for our customers, and continuing the disciplined management of the business.
當然可以,Dan。本季在生產與精準農業方面,我們在南美與歐洲看到需求條件較為疲弱,而北美則維持穩定。儘管各區域有所差異,整體需求的演變大致符合我們的預期,而且我們今年的訂單簿目前已實質滿載。在2026年剩餘期間,我們的重點是依照生產計畫執行、為客戶交付成果,並持續以紀律方式管理業務。
Let me now break down the dynamics we're seeing across each of our key markets. I'll start with South America, which remains a challenged region in the near term. Farmers continue to contend with elevated production costs, particularly fertilizer expenses, as well as a higher interest rate environment that has weighed on equipment affordability and purchasing activity. As a result, market conditions remain difficult, impacting retail sales for combines and high-horsepower tractors.
接下來我將拆解我們在各個主要市場所看到的動態。先從南美開始,短期內仍是具挑戰的區域。農民持續面臨偏高的生產成本,特別是肥料費用,以及較高的利率環境,這些因素壓抑了設備可負擔性與採購活動。因此,市場狀況仍然艱難,影響收割機與大馬力拖拉機的零售銷售。
Since our order books for the fourth quarter are now closed, we have slightly revised our industry outlook to 15% to 20% down for the year. In response, we have proactively adjusted production levels and are modestly underproducing retail demand in the region, positioning both Deere and our dealers with healthy inventory levels as we enter fiscal 2027. Looking ahead, modest improvements in interest rates during the quarter, combined with the move agricultural financing program, should improve access to capital and help create a more supportive environment for equipment investment as we look ahead to 2027.
由於我們第四季的訂單簿目前已結束接單,我們已將產業全年展望小幅修正為年減15%至20%。因應之道,我們已主動調整產量水準,並在該區域以略低於零售需求的幅度生產,使Deere與經銷商在進入2027財年時維持健康的庫存水位。展望未來,本季利率的小幅改善,加上Move農業融資方案,應可改善資金取得,並在邁向2027年之際,為設備投資創造更具支撐性的環境。
Turning to Europe. Improvements in wheat commodity prices have provided some support for customer sentiment, yet profitability across much of the arable farming sector remains pressured. Elevated input costs and uncertainty surrounding crop economics from heat and drought have made customers more cautious about capital spending. As a result, demand trends in the region remain mixed and are likely to remain dependent on improvements in farm incomes and global commodity markets as we head into 2027.
再看歐洲。小麥商品價格的改善對客戶情緒提供了一些支撐,但多數旱作農業部門的獲利能力仍承壓。偏高的投入成本,以及對於高溫與乾旱造成作物經濟性不確定性的疑慮,使客戶在資本支出上更為審慎。因此,該區域的需求趨勢仍然分歧,且在邁入2027年之際,可能仍取決於農場收入與全球商品市場的改善。
Demand trends in North America have remained relatively stable throughout the course of the year, albeit at very low levels as market conditions remain challenging for our customers. While a modest increase in commodity prices has improved farm profitability, producers continue to navigate considerable uncertainty around both input costs and trade flows for their crop production. In general, customer balance sheets remain relatively healthy, yet many are taking a measured approach to capital spending as they evaluate crop margins, cash flow expectations, and the broader outlook for agriculture.
北美的需求趨勢在今年以來相對穩定,但水準仍然很低,因為客戶所面臨的市場環境依舊具挑戰。雖然商品價格小幅上升改善了農場獲利能力,生產者仍需面對作物生產在投入成本與貿易流向方面的高度不確定性。整體而言,客戶資產負債表仍相對健康,但在評估作物利潤率、現金流預期與更廣泛的農業前景時,許多人對資本支出採取較為審慎的態度。
Chris, is there anything you would like to add?
Chris,你還有什麼想補充的嗎?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Sure, Deanna. Given the softer demand expectations in South America and Europe, we've adjusted our full-year sales outlook to be down approximately 10%. At the same time, we have tightened our margin guidance to 11% to 12%, reflecting the revised sales outlook while continuing to demonstrate the resilience of our earnings. Our ability to generate healthy margins, even at sharp demand levels, allows us to continue investing consistently through the cycle.
當然,Deanna。鑑於南美與歐洲的需求預期較為疲弱,我們已將全年銷售展望調整為約年減10%。同時,我們也將利潤率指引收斂至11%至12%,反映修正後的銷售展望,同時持續展現我們獲利的韌性。即使在需求大幅下滑的情況下,我們仍能維持健康的利潤率,使我們得以在景氣循環中持續且一致地投資。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thank you for all that great color. Let's shift to our model year 2027 early order programs in North America. Deanna, can you give us an update on the progress of those order programs?
感謝你提供這麼多精彩的補充說明。我們把焦點轉到北美 2027 年式的提前訂購計畫。Deanna,你能為我們更新這些訂購計畫的進展嗎?
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Sure, Dan. Let's begin with where we are with regards to timing. The early order program for spares opened in mid-May and is still running through the end of this month. Planters opened at the beginning of June and will close at the end of September, while our combine program just opened.
當然可以,Dan。我們先從時程進度談起。零件備品的提前訂購計畫在 5 月中旬開放,目前仍會持續到本月底。播種機在 6 月初開放,將於 9 月底結束,而我們的聯合收割機計畫則剛剛開放。
As of right now, we are seeing modest improvements in order intake versus the prior year. Even though the crop care programs are still open, the collective orders for planters and sprayers are already higher than last year. At this time, results are up mid-single digits compared to the completion of last year's program, and we'll provide an update next quarter after they've both closed.
截至目前,我們看到訂單接單量相較去年有小幅改善。儘管作物照護計畫仍在開放中,播種機與噴藥機的合計訂單已高於去年。目前的結果相較去年計畫結束時約成長中個位數百分比;待兩項計畫都關閉後,我們將在下季提供更新。
Overall, we view the early order program results as an encouraging signal that reinforces our view that 2026 represents the bottom of the agricultural equipment cycle. At the same time, the underlying fundamentals continue to support a measured recovery rather than a sharp rebound in 2027. Customer profitability has improved modestly, aided by improved year-over-year commodity prices, moderation in certain input costs, and favorable livestock fundamentals within mixed farms.
整體而言,我們將提前訂購計畫的結果視為令人鼓舞的訊號,強化我們的看法:2026 年代表農業設備景氣循環的谷底。同時,基本面仍支持 2027 年呈現溫和復甦,而非急速反彈。在大宗商品價格年對年改善、部分投入成本趨緩,以及混合型農場中畜牧基本面有利的帶動下,客戶獲利能力已小幅提升。
Still, the overall market conditions remain challenging. Farm income remains pressured, and producers continue to navigate uncertainty around input expenses and crop demand. Despite these challenges, the building blocks for recovery continue to strengthen. Replacement demand is elevating as fleet age increases across equipment categories. We also see encouraging commodity demand signals, including record levels of soybean crush and ethanol production, which provides strong underlying support for our customers' crops.
不過,整體市場環境仍具挑戰。農場收入仍承壓,生產者持續面對投入費用與作物需求的不確定性。儘管如此,復甦的基礎仍在持續強化。隨著各類設備的車隊平均機齡上升,汰換需求正在升高。我們也看到令人鼓舞的大宗商品需求訊號,包括黃豆壓榨量與乙醇產量創下新高,為客戶作物提供強勁的基本支撐。
Combined with healthier dealer inventories, we believe the foundation is in place for a recovery. So its pace will ultimately depend on improving farm economics, supported by higher commodity prices, stability and input costs, and growing renewable fuel demand.
再加上經銷商庫存更為健康,我們認為復甦的基礎已經到位。因此,復甦速度最終將取決於農場經濟的改善,而這需要更高的大宗商品價格、投入成本的穩定,以及再生燃料需求的成長來支撐。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks, Deanna. You cited healthier dealer inventories as a key building block for recovery. Can you expand on that?
謝謝你,Deanna。你提到更健康的經銷商庫存是復甦的重要基石。你能再多談一些嗎?
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Throughout this downturn, we have remained highly disciplined in balancing production with demand to support channel health. Those proactive decisions have resulted in meaningful improvements across equipment inventories. Within North America, new inventories remain tight and well positioned to support customer demand, while late model used inventory continues to improve. The model year distribution of used combines is now in a healthy position. And model year 2023 and 2024 high-horsepower tractors are down nearly 40% from a year ago.
在這次景氣下行期間,我們始終嚴格自律地在生產與需求之間取得平衡,以維持通路健康。這些前瞻性的決策,使各類設備庫存出現顯著改善。在北美,新機庫存仍偏緊且配置得宜,可支撐客戶需求;而較新年份的二手機庫存也持續改善。二手聯合收割機的年式分布如今已處於健康水準。此外,2023 與 2024 年式的大馬力拖拉機庫存較一年前下降近 40%。
Just as importantly, the spread between new and used equipment values has largely normalized, improving replacement economics and creating a healthier environment for equipment trade cycle. Taken together, these trends reinforce the progress made across the channel and leave Deere, our dealers, and our customers better positioned for the next phase of the cycle.
同樣重要的是,新舊設備價差已大致回歸正常,改善汰換的經濟性,並為設備換購循環創造更健康的環境。綜合來看,這些趨勢強化了通路端的改善進展,並讓 Deere、我們的經銷商與客戶在景氣循環的下一階段具備更佳的準備。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks for the additional perspective. Let's pivot to Precision Ag technology. Can you talk to us about how customers are using our solutions this season and what we are seeing in adoption trends?
謝謝你補充更多觀點。我們把話題轉到精準農業(Precision Ag)技術。你能談談客戶本季如何使用我們的解決方案,以及我們在採用趨勢上看到什麼嗎?
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
We continue investing through the cycle in technologies that improve customer profitability across market conditions, with a focus on lowering costs, increasing productivity, and maximizing yield. Utilization and adoption continue to reinforce the value we bring with our precision technology portfolio. It also shows the importance of staying committed, particularly in a challenging farm economy.
我們在景氣循環中持續投資能在各種市場情境下提升客戶獲利能力的技術,重點在於降低成本、提升生產力並最大化產量。使用率與採用率持續印證我們精準技術產品組合所帶來的價值。這也顯示在艱困的農業經濟環境下,持續投入與堅持承諾的重要性。
Customers are using See & Spray on significantly more acres year over year, while achieving more than 50% herbicide savings. At the same time, current EOP trends suggest factory adoption of See & Spray will nearly double, with the technology included on about one-third of North American sprayers on order.
客戶使用 See & Spray 的面積年對年大幅增加,同時達成超過 50% 的除草劑節省。此外,目前的提前訂購(EOP)趨勢顯示,See & Spray 的原廠配置採用率將接近倍增;在已下訂的北美噴藥機中,約三分之一將搭載此技術。
We also see strong momentum and consistent adoption patterns in our next generation of planter technologies. You'll remember that we launched our industry-leading ExactEmerge planters over a decade ago and are seeing continued pull for this technology. On these planters, customers are choosing even more advanced offerings to support input cost savings, productivity, and yield benefits. For model year '27, we are seeing more than 40% of North American planters, including our next generation of advanced offerings such as ExactRate, ExactShot, and FurrowVision.
我們也在新一代播種機技術上看到強勁動能與一致的採用型態。大家還記得,我們在十多年前推出業界領先的 ExactEmerge 播種機,至今仍持續看到市場對這項技術的拉動需求。在這些播種機上,客戶選擇更進階的方案,以支援投入成本節省、生產力提升與增產效益。針對 2027 年式,我們看到北美超過 40% 的播種機訂單將包含我們下一代的進階方案,例如 ExactRate、ExactShot 與 FurrowVision。
I would also highlight the continued growth of our digital ecosystem and the increasingly important role the John Deere Operations Center plays in helping customers turn data into better decisions. We now have more than 520 million engaged acres across nearly 1.2 million connected machines. Just as importantly, highly engaged acres have grown to more than 190 million acres, representing double-digit growth for the year.
我也想強調我們數位生態系的持續成長,以及 John Deere Operations Center 在協助客戶把數據轉化為更佳決策方面日益重要的角色。目前我們已有超過 5.2 億英畝的活躍耕作面積,涵蓋近 120 萬台已連線機具。同樣重要的是,高度活躍的耕作面積已成長至超過 1.9 億英畝,年增率達雙位數。
Through the John Deere Operations Center, we are turning this growing stream of operational data into actionable insights that help growers better understand performance across their operations. We will soon build on that foundation with AI-enabled capabilities designed to unlock even more value from the data within Operations Center. Today, more than 450,000 unique active monthly digital users are engaging with our tools, reinforcing the growing importance of data-driven decisions across the farm.
透過 John Deere Operations Center,我們將這股日益增加的營運數據流轉化為可執行的洞察,協助種植戶更了解其營運各環節的表現。我們很快將在此基礎上,推出 AI 賦能的功能,旨在從 Operations Center 的數據中釋放更多價值。目前每月有超過 45 萬名不重複的活躍數位使用者在使用我們的工具,進一步凸顯以數據驅動決策在農場上的重要性日益提升。
All of this emphasizes our excitement about the value of our precision technologies and digital offerings are creating for customers, especially as farm profitability remains under pressure. With seed, fertilizer, and crop protection products representing roughly 70% of our farmers' operating costs, technologies that help optimize those investments play an increasingly critical role.
這一切都凸顯我們對精準技術與數位產品為客戶創造價值的期待,特別是在農場獲利能力仍承壓之際。由於種子、肥料與作物保護產品約占農民營運成本的 70%,能協助最佳化這些投資的技術正扮演愈來愈關鍵的角色。
When deployed as an integrated system, our Precision Agriculture solutions can materially improve farm economics, delivering double-digit savings in variable operating costs and meaningful yield improvement. As input costs rise over time and volatility remains a reality for producers, the opportunity to create value through these technologies will continue to grow as we bring new innovations to market.
當以整合式系統部署時,我們的精準農業解決方案能實質改善農場經濟效益,帶來可變動營運成本的雙位數節省,以及顯著的增產提升。隨著投入成本長期走升、且波動仍是生產者必須面對的現實,當我們將新創新推向市場時,透過這些技術創造價值的機會將持續擴大。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks, Deanna. Brent, before we open the line for questions, would you share a few closing thoughts?
謝謝你,Deanna。Brent,在我們開放提問之前,你能分享幾點結語嗎?
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Thanks, Dan. As we wrap up, I want to take a step back and highlight where we are today, how the business is positioned, and why we remain confident in the opportunities ahead.
好的。謝謝你,Dan。在結束之前,我想退一步,強調我們目前所處的位置、業務的布局狀態,以及為何我們仍對未來的機會充滿信心。
As we discussed, the agricultural environment remains challenging, but we continue to believe that 2026 represents the bottom of the ag equipment cycle. While the recovery is likely to be measured and is expected to vary by region, the underlying trends are moving in the right direction.
如同我們討論的,農業環境仍具挑戰,但我們仍相信 2026 年代表農業設備景氣循環的谷底。雖然復甦可能會是溫和的,且預期會因地區而異,但基本趨勢正朝正確方向發展。
I also want to recognize the proactive and disciplined actions taken by our employees and our dealers throughout this downturn. A particular note are the actions taken around inventory management. Those actions have strengthened channel health and better position Deere, our dealers, and our customers for the recovery ahead.
我也想肯定我們員工與經銷商在這段景氣下行期間所採取的積極且自律的行動。特別值得一提的是在庫存管理方面所採取的措施。這些行動強化了通路健康度,並讓Deere、我們的經銷商以及客戶在即將到來的復甦中處於更有利的位置。
At the same time, the benefits of Deere's diversified portfolio remain clear. While Production & Precision Agriculture has managed effectively through the trough of the cycle, our Construction & Forestry business and our Small Ag & Turf business continue to demonstrate strong performance and profitability. That diversification, together with disciplined execution, has enabled Deere to deliver resilient earnings and improve our full-year net income and cash flow outlook. Furthermore, our performance has enabled us to maintain industry-leading investment through the cycle and solutions that help our customers do more with less.
同時,Deere多元化產品組合的效益依然清晰可見。儘管生產與精準農業(Production & Precision Agriculture)已有效度過景氣循環的低谷,我們的建築與林業(Construction & Forestry)業務以及小型農業與草坪(Small Ag & Turf)業務仍持續展現強勁的表現與獲利能力。這種多元化,加上自律的執行,使Deere得以交出具韌性的獲利表現,並改善我們對全年淨利與現金流的展望。此外,我們的表現也讓我們能在景氣循環中維持業界領先的投資水準,並提供協助客戶以更少資源完成更多工作的解決方案。
As we look ahead to 2027, Deere is well positioned as it enters the next phase of the cycle. We'll start the year with healthy inventory channels, a differentiated portfolio, and a resilient business model. Most importantly, our team's focus on creating value for customers remains at the center of everything we do and will continue to support long-term success for all stakeholders.
展望2027年,Deere在進入景氣循環下一階段時已具備良好定位。我們將以健康的通路庫存、具差異化的產品組合,以及具韌性的商業模式展開新年度。最重要的是,我們團隊以為客戶創造價值為核心的專注,仍是我們一切工作的中心,並將持續支持所有利害關係人的長期成功。
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Dan Pulley - Manager, Investor Communications
Thanks, Brent. We will now open the line for analyst questions.
謝謝,Brent。我們現在開放分析師提問。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Now, we are ready to begin the Q&A portion of the call. The operator will instruct you on the polling procedure. (Event Instructions)
現在,我們準備開始電話會議的問答環節。接線員將說明輪詢提問的程序。(活動說明)
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.
(接線員說明) Jamie Cook,Truist Securities。
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Jamie Cook - Analyst
Hi. Good morning, and congrats on a nice quarter. I guess just my first question, just on the setup for 2027, how are we thinking about production versus retail by region? And then just with regards to the early order program up mid-single digit, can you just talk about what the pricing expectations are just in 2027, just given concerns about inflationary costs over the past several years on farm equipment? Thank you.
嗨。早安,恭喜本季表現亮眼。我想先問第一個問題,關於2027年的布局,我們該如何看待各區域的生產相對於零售(終端銷售)的安排?另外,關於早期訂單計畫(EOP)上升中個位數百分比,能否談談對2027年定價的預期?尤其考量過去幾年農機設備面臨通膨成本的疑慮。謝謝。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Hey, Jamie. This is Chris. Thanks for the question.
嗨,Jamie。我是Chris。謝謝你的提問。
Maybe I start first with the production to retail type environment. I mean, you heard us talk about specifically for PPA now and for Construction & Forestry modest underproduction this year, a couple of percentage points for each of these segments. The drivers there, certainly, our shipping plans are set for the full year, and the changes we have seen in South America just drive a little more caution for us in that market.
也許我先從生產相對於零售的環境談起。你也聽到我們提到,針對生產與精準農業(PPA)以及建築與林業(Construction & Forestry),今年我們都會有小幅度的低於終端需求的生產(underproduction),各事業部大約低幾個百分點。背後的驅動因素是:當然,我們全年的出貨計畫已經訂定,而我們在南美看到的變化,讓我們在該市場採取更審慎的態度。
And then on the Construction & Forestry side of things, the continuous pace and growth in retails, and given where we are with our order position being four to five months out, basically lead to a minor level of underproduction in 2026.
至於建築與林業方面,終端零售持續的節奏與成長,加上我們目前的訂單能見度約在未來四到五個月,基本上使得2026年出現小幅度的低於終端需求的生產。
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Yeah, and this is Deanna. From an EOP pricing standpoint, we, of course, rolled that pricing out several months ago as we started our EOP process. And our focus remains on covering inflation with our pricing, and we've done that across the EOP products and also across all of the PPA portfolio as we roll towards 2027.
對,我是Deanna。就EOP定價而言,我們當然在幾個月前、啟動EOP流程時就已推出該定價。我們的重點仍是透過定價來覆蓋通膨,我們已在EOP產品上做到這點,也在整個PPA產品組合上同步推進,隨著我們邁向2027年。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Thanks for the question, Jamie.
謝謝你的提問,Jamie。
Operator
Operator
Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.
Tami Zakaria,JPMorgan。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Hey. Good morning. Thank you so much. A question on tariffs I wanted to clarify. I think you expect now $1.1 billion of impact, which I think is probably $100 million lower than what you had anticipated originally. Is that a function of the tariff relief that ag equipment got back in July, or is that reflective of some refunds you expect? So can you help us understand what's driving that tariff expectation change?
嗨。早安。非常感謝。我想釐清一個關於關稅的問題。我想你們現在預期影響為11億美元,這可能比你們原先預期低了1億美元。這是因為7月農業設備獲得的關稅減免,還是反映你們預期會收到一些退稅?能否協助我們理解,驅動這個關稅預期變動的原因是什麼?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Yeah. Tami, I can take a shot at that. So the numbers you mentioned -- previously, we communicated an annual run rate for fiscal year '26 of $1.2 billion. That has been updated to $1.1 billion. That excludes any of the positive impacts we have seen from refunds.
好的。Tami,我來嘗試回答。你提到的數字——先前我們溝通的是2026會計年度的年度化影響(annual run rate)為12億美元。目前已更新為11億美元。這個數字不包含我們從退稅所看到的任何正面影響。
Now, the driver from $1.2 billion to $1.1 billion is mainly attributed to the changes in Section 232 tariffs. Remember, previously on imported goods, we had a tariff rate of roughly 25% that kind of dropped to 15%. And given our imports from Europe specifically, that drove that change for the year.
從12億美元降到11億美元的主因,主要歸因於《232條款》(Section 232)關稅的變動。請記得,先前對進口商品的關稅稅率約為25%,後來降至15%。而考量我們特別是自歐洲的進口,這就推動了今年的變化。
Keep in mind, these changes have been effective June 1, so the impact we see for this year are 5 out of 12 months. So you can expect another tailwind for fiscal year '27 as a result of these changes.
請注意,這些變動自6月1日起生效,因此我們今年看到的影響只涵蓋12個月中的5個月。因此,因應這些變動,你可以預期在2027會計年度還會有進一步的順風(正面助益)。
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Understood. Thank you. And my second question is on your expectation for the excavator launch. I know it was going to launch, but could you give us some updates on how that's trending and what you're seeing in terms of when the broader adoption would happen?
了解。謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於你們對挖掘機上市的預期。我知道原本就會推出,但你們能否更新一下目前的進展趨勢,以及你們看到更廣泛採用大概會在什麼時候發生?
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Tami. This is Brent. With respect to the excavator launch, we did launch the first models of our excavator, our Deere-designed excavator, earlier this spring. And we're really just in the process of getting those shipments out and getting those into the hands of customers. I think we've got three models in the market today. The feedback we've gotten to date has been very positive. So we're really excited about the impact that we'll continue to have in 2027.
嗨,Tami。我是Brent。關於挖掘機上市,我們在今年春季稍早已推出首批機型,也就是由Deere自行設計的挖掘機。我們目前正處於把這些產品出貨、並交到客戶手上的階段。我想目前市場上大概有三個機型。截至目前收到的回饋非常正面。因此,我們對其在2027年將持續帶來的影響感到非常振奮。
Keep in mind, our excavator portfolio has a number of models in it that we will begin to roll out, again, starting this spring through the next three to four years. So we're just early days in the release of the Deere-designed excavators. But so far, we've had very positive reception from customers, and we're eager to get to more of these at the job site here over the coming months.
請記得,我們的挖掘機產品組合包含多個機型,我們將從今年春季開始,於未來三到四年陸續推出。所以,Deere自研挖掘機的發布目前仍屬早期階段。但到目前為止,客戶反應非常正面,我們也很期待在接下來幾個月,讓更多機型進入工地現場。
Thanks, Tami.
謝謝你,Tami。
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Tami Zakaria - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
很好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.
Kristen Owen,Oppenheimer。
Kristen Owen - Analyst
Kristen Owen - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the question. Just wanted to follow up on some of the inventory comments and your comments for 2027. I'm looking here 3Q, 4Q. I'm just wondering, did something slip between those quarters, maybe pushed a little bit into 3Q from 4Q? When I look at your inventory to sales ratios, it looks like you actually built some tractor inventory in 3Q ahead of the industry. Is that because the demand signals that you're seeing, is that being offset by you and South America? Just want to understand some of that cadence exiting the year. Thank you.
嗨。早安。謝謝讓我提問。我想追問一些關於庫存的評論,以及你們對2027年的看法。我在看這裡的第三季、第四季。我想確認一下,這兩個季度之間是否有什麼被延後或挪移了,例如從第四季稍微推到第三季?當我看你們的庫存對銷售比率時,看起來你們在第三季其實在產業之前就增加了一些拖拉機庫存。這是因為你們看到的需求訊號嗎?還是因為你們與南美的因素而被抵消?我想了解一下在年度結束時的節奏與變化。謝謝。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Hey, Kristen. This is Chris. I would not read too much into the recent changes here in Q3. I mean, our shipment plans have been largely set for the full year, and we have the orders on hand. And as you have seen, this quarter specifically, we pulled ahead some demand to kind of manage some risk here in Q4, but nothing in particular on the inventory side of things you need to be concerned about.
嗨,Kristen。我是Chris。我不會對第三季這裡近期的變化過度解讀。我的意思是,我們全年的出貨計畫基本上都已經訂定,而且我們手上也有訂單。而且如你所見,就這一季而言,我們把部分需求提前,以便在第四季這裡管理一些風險,但在庫存面向沒有什麼特別需要你擔心的。
Deanna, anything you would add here?
Deanna,你這邊有什麼要補充的嗎?
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Yeah. Our factories continue to deliver and hit the forecast. And on top of that, as we look at our sold-ahead positions and our retail pace across the Americas, we continue to be on trend with historical averages and have high expectations that we'll be able to move through that inventory as expected.
有。我們的工廠持續交付並達成預測。此外,當我們檢視我們的預售(sold-ahead)部位以及美洲地區的零售銷售節奏時,我們仍然符合歷史平均趨勢,並且高度期待能如預期消化那批庫存。
And if you remember, in North America, we slowly entered 2027 relative to tractor shipments. And so we're making up time, but our retail activity hasn't missed that pace at all.
而且如果你還記得,在北美,就曳引機出貨而言,我們是以較慢的步調進入2027年。所以我們正在把進度補回來,但我們的零售活動在節奏上完全沒有落後。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Kristen. This is Brent. Just as you think about the 3Q-4Q bridge, maybe a couple of notes. For PPA and C&F, we would expect a similar net sales level in the fourth quarter as we saw in the third quarter. Now, keep in mind, from a margin perspective, we won't get the benefit of refunds in the fourth quarter like we had in the third quarter.
嗨,Kristen。我是Brent。就你在思考第三季到第四季的銜接(bridge)時,或許提供幾點說明。就PPA與C&F而言,我們預期第四季的淨銷售額水準會與第三季相近。不過請記得,從毛利率角度來看,第四季不會像第三季那樣享有退稅(refunds)的利益。
And then specifically for PPA and SAT, both of those divisions typically have a seasonal high of R&D and SA&G that hit in the fourth quarter. So as you think about bridging 3Q to 4Q, again, net sales is going to be more or less the same for PPA and C&F, but margins will come in a little bit on PPA and SAT as they incur slightly higher load of R&D and SA&G coming out of the year.
另外,特別是對PPA與SAT而言,這兩個事業部通常在第四季會出現研發(R&D)與銷售、一般及行政費用(SA&G)的季節性高點。因此當你思考第三季到第四季的銜接時,再次強調,PPA與C&F的淨銷售額大致相同,但PPA與SAT的利潤率會略為下滑,因為在年底會承擔稍高的研發與SA&G費用負擔。
Thanks for the question, Kristen.
謝謝你的提問,Kristen。
Operator
Operator
Tim Thein, Raymond James.
Tim Thein,Raymond James。
Tim Thein - Analyst
Tim Thein - Analyst
Thank you. Thanks. Good morning. So my question is just on the role that mix could potentially play in thinking about in '27. Obviously, there are a number of things that go into that, and I assume you want to stay away from the kind of forecasting the different geographic -- how the markets go out geographically. But just -- the comments alluded to technology both on the C&F side and then obviously that the strong underlying contribution in the spring early order program in terms of the take rates on some of those precision offering.
謝謝。謝謝。早安。我的問題是關於產品組合(mix)在思考2027年時可能扮演的角色。顯然,這裡面有很多因素,我也理解你們可能想避免去預測不同地理區域市場的走勢。但我想問的是——先前的評論提到C&F端的技術,以及春季早鳥訂購計畫(early order program)中強勁的基本貢獻,尤其是在一些精準農業方案的採用率(take rates)方面。
And again, just high level, we had talked about in the years past that maybe a kind of a 2- to 3-point benefit of impact from mix, obviously, when markets were a bit stronger. But just maybe wanted to come back to that, how you're thinking about the potential impact from these higher technology sales and how that could influence that mix component in '27. Thank you.
再者,從高層次來看,我們過去幾年曾談到,當市場較強時,產品組合可能帶來約2到3個百分點的正面影響。但我想回到這點,請問你們如何看待這些較高技術含量銷售的潛在影響,以及它們在2027年可能如何影響產品組合這個構成?謝謝。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Maybe when we talk about mix first, I think we need to recognize the industry environment we are in right now. I mean, there is still some uncertainty out there. I mean, you think about agriculture, obviously, the volatility we have seen in inputs and commodities is driving some caution there, but also some shipment disruptions, you think about the Black Sea and other things.
也許我們先談產品組合(mix),我認為我們需要先認清目前所處的產業環境。我的意思是,外部仍然存在一些不確定性。你想想農業,顯然,我們在投入品與大宗商品上看到的波動正在帶來一些謹慎態度,同時也有一些出貨中斷,例如黑海以及其他因素。
I mean, we continue to focus on controllables here, inventory management, Deanna made these comments, we feel pretty good about that. And certainly, if you think about other kind of movers here, the recent softness in the EU and Brazil, I mean, we need to see how that kind of plays into 2027. I think it's too early to tell. As you know, specifically in South America, things can turn quickly.
我們仍然專注在可控因素上,例如庫存管理;Deanna也提到這些,我們對此感覺相當不錯。當然,如果你再想想其他可能的驅動因素,近期歐盟與巴西的疲軟——我們需要觀察這會如何影響到2027年。我認為現在下結論還太早。如你所知,特別是在南美,情勢可能很快就會轉變。
Construction, I mean, we see good fundamentals there. But obviously, depending on the growth there, that could have a mix impact too. The EOP signals we see, not only the tech adoption there, but also kind of where they sit right now and depending how they wrap up, I mean, that will drive some mix. Will we see some more than a modest recovery here, yes or no, and what will combines do later this year? So I think it's too early to tell, but certainly encouraged by the signals we are seeing right now.
至於營建,我們看到不錯的基本面。但顯然,取決於那邊的成長狀況,也可能對產品組合造成影響。我們看到的EOP訊號,不僅是技術採用的情況,也包括他們目前所處的位置以及最終收尾的狀況,這些都會驅動一些產品組合變化。我們是否會看到不只是溫和的復甦,是或否?以及今年稍晚收割機(combines)的表現會如何?所以我認為現在還太早下定論,但我們確實受到目前看到的訊號所鼓舞。
Thanks, Tim.
謝謝,Tim。
Operator
Operator
Jerry Revich, Wells Fargo.
Jerry Revich,Wells Fargo。
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Jerry Revich - Equity Analyst
Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone. I'm wondering if you could just unpack the comments on the early order program. Deanna, if you don't mind just commenting on what variability in demand you saw depending on region because it came in, I think, better than most of us expected in aggregate.
是的,你好。各位早安。我想請你們再詳細說明一下關於早鳥訂購計畫(early order program)的評論。Deanna,如果你不介意,能否談談你們在不同地區看到的需求差異?因為整體來看,我覺得結果比我們大多數人預期的要好。
And as the early order program eventually winds down, the mid-single-digit growth that you're seeing now, I guess, based on progress, would suggest you could wind up in the high-single-digit range. Can you just comment on the moving pieces there, if you don't mind, around those two items? Thanks.
而且當早鳥訂購計畫最終逐步結束時,你們現在看到的中個位數成長(mid-single-digit growth),我想依照目前進度,可能意味著最後會落在高個位數區間(high-single-digit range)。你能否就這兩點周邊的變動因素做些評論?如果你不介意的話。謝謝。
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Yeah. Thanks, Jerry. Appreciate the question. And I think dynamic is certainly part of this as we're still in the middle of these early order programs with a couple of weeks to go on our sprayer early order program and then a little bit longer on our planter EOP.
好的。謝謝,Jerry。感謝你的提問。我認為動態變化確實是其中一部分,因為我們仍在這些早鳥訂購計畫的進行中:我們的噴藥機早鳥訂購計畫還有幾週,而播種機(planter)的EOP則還會再長一些。
I would say as we look regionally, the US is trending slightly better than Canada. But remember, in these products, especially planters, Canada is a very limited part of our portfolio. So we continue to see solid expectations from our customers that they want the latest and greatest technologies in planting and spraying. And I think some of the best signals that we're seeing is, of course, an increase; we're talking mid-single digit. Time will tell whether that turns even more positive as we close out the EOP.
我會說,從區域來看,美國的趨勢略優於加拿大。但請記得,在這些產品中,尤其是播種機,加拿大在我們的產品組合中占比非常有限。因此我們持續看到客戶對於採用最新、最好的播種與噴灑技術有穩健的期待。而我認為我們看到的一些最佳訊號之一,當然是訂單增加——我們談的是中個位數。至於在EOP結束時是否會變得更正面,還有待時間驗證。
But to me, some of the best signals that customers are looking for ways to increase their yields and lower their cost is the technology take rates we're seeing. And seeing a doubling of See & Spray on factory-installed sprayer orders and seeing 40% of our planters taking some of the most advanced technologies on planting really gives us confidence that we're headed in the right direction relative to our portfolio and that customers are looking for ways to maximize everything they can going into '27.
但對我而言,顧客正在尋找提高產量並降低成本的方法,其中一些最好的訊號就是我們看到的技術採用率(take rates)。我們看到See & Spray在工廠預裝的噴藥機訂單中翻倍,以及我們的播種機有40%採用一些最先進的播種技術,這讓我們對於產品組合方向充滿信心,也顯示客戶正在尋找各種方式,在邁向2027年之際把能最大化的都最大化。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Thanks for the question, Jerry.
謝謝你的提問,Jerry。
Operator
Operator
David Raso, Evercore ISI.
Evercore ISI 的 David Raso。
David Raso - Analyst
David Raso - Analyst
Hi. Thank you. I'm curious on the EOP programs, given the books have been open for a little while, especially sprayers and then planters open not too long afterwards, the cadence of the orders being up mid-single digit. I'm just curious, was there anything you can note around has it been maybe some of the recent improvement in grain prices? Was it maybe decisions people were making on technology that the orders were actually up 1, 1.5 months ago? Just curious what you're seeing on that cadence.
嗨。謝謝。我想請教 EOP(早期訂購)方案。鑑於訂單簿已開放一段時間,尤其是噴藥機,接著播種機也在不久後開放,而訂單節奏呈現中個位數成長。我只是好奇,你們是否能說明一下:這是否可能與近期穀物價格改善有關?或者是否是大家在技術選配上的決策,其實在 1 到 1.5 個月前就已經讓訂單上升?想了解你們看到的這個節奏狀況。
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Yeah. Thanks, David. From a cadence perspective, I wouldn't read much into it. I think we've seen, as expected, cadence. We've made some tweaks to our early order program this year to give dealers more choice as they go through, and they've come through as expected.
是的。謝謝你,David。就節奏而言,我不會過度解讀。我認為我們看到的節奏如預期。今年我們對早期訂購方案做了一些調整,讓經銷商在推進過程中有更多選擇,而他們的反應也如我們所預期。
I think, again, we're pleasantly surprised with the technology take rates. And of course, we're hopeful that the mid-single-digit increase extends well into the year.
我想再強調一次,我們對技術採用率感到驚喜。當然,我們也希望這個中個位數的增幅能延續到今年更後面。
David Raso - Analyst
David Raso - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.
Melius Research 的 Rob Wertheimer。
Rob Wertheimer - Analyst
Rob Wertheimer - Analyst
Thank you. I had two, and I'll just ask them both at once. Any comments on the 8 Series Tractor orders? Is that kind of falling in line with early order programs trending a little bit better, especially in North America?
謝謝。我有兩個問題,我就一次一起問。對於 8 系列曳引機的訂單,有什麼評論嗎?這是否大致符合早期訂購方案的趨勢、而且看起來稍微好一些,特別是在北美?
And then, Deanna, I'm not really sure how to think about Europe. The farmer economy is experiencing lots of heat stress and input cost stress, lots of different things. In North America, it seems like if you get a commodity price response, that outweighs everything. Europe is a bit more diverse.
另外,Deanna,我不太確定該如何看待歐洲。農民經濟正面臨很多壓力:高溫熱害、投入成本壓力,以及各種不同因素。在北美,看起來只要大宗商品價格有反應,就會蓋過其他一切。歐洲則更多元一些。
So I wonder if you could comment on anything you can on whether crop prices are starting to reflect some of the stress they're feeling, whether you expect Europe to react similarly to the US if we do get a proper price response. Thank you.
所以我想請你評論一下:作物價格是否開始反映他們感受到的壓力?如果我們確實看到合理的價格反應,你是否預期歐洲會像美國一樣做出類似反應?謝謝。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Rob. I would say if we kind of quickly walk around some of the geographies and starting with your questions on 8R, I would say 8R orders right now are as expected. Keep in mind, we have orders kind of being four to five months out. Our model year '26 shipment schedule is basically closed. So we are kind of collecting orders here for the first quarter.
是的。謝謝你的提問,Rob。我想如果我們快速走一圈各個地區,先從你關於 8R 的問題開始,我會說目前 8R 訂單符合預期。請記得,我們的訂單大約是提前四到五個月。我們 2026 年型(MY’26)的出貨排程基本上已經關閉。所以我們現在主要是在收第一季的訂單。
I think we are encouraged by the recent changes and development in commodity prices specifically. I mean, if you look today, I mean, we're talking corn futures about $5.05, which is definitely a good signal for a lot of these growers out there.
我想我們對近期大宗商品價格的變化與發展感到鼓舞。我的意思是,如果你看今天,我們談到玉米期貨大約在 5.05 美元,這對許多種植戶來說絕對是個好訊號。
In other geographies, you touched on Europe a little bit and Brazil. I mean, in Brazil, we typically take a three-month order book to manage the volatility in that market. So we have orders for fourth quarter on hand, and you've seen us change our industry guide given the circumstances we see there. But I think it's too early to tell for how we enter 2027. Certainly, the move financing program Deanna mentioned, at single-digit financing rates, hopefully that drives some momentum here as we enter 2027.
在其他地區方面,你提到歐洲以及巴西。在巴西,我們通常以三個月的訂單簿來管理該市場的波動。因此我們手上已有第四季的訂單,而你也看到我們基於那裡的情況調整了我們的產業指引。但我認為現在要判斷我們將如何進入 2027 年還太早。當然,Deanna 提到的移動式融資方案,在個位數的融資利率下,希望能在我們邁入 2027 年時帶動一些動能。
I think in Europe, it's a little bit of a mixed picture. That region has a solid Small Ag & Turf but also PPA exposure. Certainly, arable farmers are a little more challenged right now and Small Ag & Turf producers still benefiting from dairy and livestock cash flows, which are relatively strong and stable. So more to come on that front. But I would say, overall, order pace is currently as expected, and we haven't seen kind of a step-up here in the last one or two days or so.
我想在歐洲,情況有點混合。該地區的小型農業與草坪(Small Ag & Turf)表現穩健,但也有 PPA 的曝險。當然,可耕作農戶目前面臨的挑戰較大,而小型農業與草坪的生產者仍受惠於乳品與畜牧的現金流,這些相對強勁且穩定。所以這方面後續還會有更多進展。但我會說,整體而言,目前的訂單速度符合預期,而且我們在最近一兩天左右並沒有看到明顯的加速。
Thanks for the question, Rob.
謝謝你的提問,Rob。
Operator
Operator
Steve Volkmann, Jefferies.
Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Great. Good morning, guys. Maybe switching back over to C&F. I'm curious, you sort of put some bookend numbers around the earlier program on ag. Any sense of sort of how the C&F programs are shaping up? And if you can just add in any more granularity about how much of that you think is kind of dealer rental fleet loading and sort of the outlook for that theme. Thank you.
很好。各位早安。也許把話題切回 C&F(建築與林業)。我好奇,你們對農業的早期方案大概給了一些上下限數字。那 C&F 的方案目前成形得如何,有沒有一些概念?另外如果可以的話,能否再更細一點說明:你們認為其中有多少是經銷商租賃機隊的補庫(loading),以及這個主題的展望如何。謝謝。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Hey, Steve. This is Chris. For Construction & Forestry, order trends have been very positive. We have about four to five months of orders on hand, which is quite frankly a little more than we would want to have, typically talk about two to three months. But yes, industry has been growing, retails have been growing, and that basically supported our order bank here positively.
嗨,Steve。我是 Chris。在建築與林業方面,訂單趨勢非常正面。我們手上大約有四到五個月的訂單,坦白說這比我們通常希望的略多;一般我們會談兩到三個月。不過是的,產業在成長、零售也在成長,這基本上正面支撐了我們目前的訂單庫存。
I would say if we think about the drivers, certainly, large infrastructure projects and data center starts, and our participation in the independent rental channel as well since we kind of work with these players in there, but also the opportunity we have on dealer-owned rental fleet, I think that's all driving momentum. As we enter '27, keep in mind, I talked about that setup for the underproduction. So that will give us a little bit of an opportunity as well. So I think we feel good about the current situation here in C&F.
我會說,如果我們思考驅動因素,當然包括大型基礎建設專案與資料中心開工,以及我們在獨立租賃通路的參與,因為我們也與那裡的業者合作;同時也包括我們在經銷商自有租賃機隊上的機會,我認為這些都在推動動能。當我們進入 2027 年時,請記得我提到的供給不足(underproduction)的布局。因此這也會給我們一些機會。所以我想我們對 C&F 目前的狀況感到不錯。
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Stephen Volkmann - Analyst
Super. Thank you.
太好了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Steve Fisher, UBS.
UBS 的 Steve Fisher。
Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst
Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst
Great. Thanks. Congrats on the good execution in a challenging environment. Just maybe to clarify the tariff dynamics, you mentioned there's still some benefit from 232 to come in 2027 because there's only really kind of a half year of benefit this year and sounds like you have no other refunds embedded in Q4.
很好。謝謝。在充滿挑戰的環境下仍能良好執行,恭喜。我想釐清一下關稅的動態:你提到 2027 年仍會有一些來自 232 的效益,因為今年實際上只有大概半年的效益,而且聽起來你們在第四季沒有再把其他退稅(refunds)納入。
So really just trying to think about when all is said and done and comparing '26 to '27, is that roughly $800 million net impact that you have this year? And if all else were to be equal, would that be a headwind going into next year or a tailwind or neutral? I know all else is not going to be equal because you already have, sounds like, some higher plans in large ag. But just kind of curious trying to think about headwind or tailwind on that net tariff impact for '27. Thanks.
所以我主要想理解:當一切塵埃落定、比較 2026 年與 2027 年時,今年你們所承受的淨影響大約是 8 億美元嗎?如果其他條件都相同,這在明年會是逆風、順風,還是中性?我知道其他條件不會相同,因為聽起來你們在大型農機方面已經有一些更高的規劃。但我只是好奇,想從 2027 年的角度思考這個淨關稅影響到底是逆風還是順風。謝謝。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Steve. This is Brent. As you think about our tariff expense this year versus next year, net tariffs, so direct tariffs paid less any refunds, will be a headwind going into next year. We'll end up paying about $1.1 billion in direct tariffs this year, less $382 million of refunds. So our net tariff exposure this year is approximately $750 million-ish.
嗨,Steve。我是Brent。當你比較我們今年與明年的關稅費用時,以淨關稅來看,也就是直接支付的關稅扣除任何退稅,明年將會形成逆風。我們今年最終大約會支付11億美元的直接關稅,扣除3.82億美元的退稅。因此,我們今年的淨關稅曝險約為7.5億美元左右。
Going into next year, we would expect a run rate that is going to be closer to right around $1 billion for the year. So there will be a bit of a step-up in our tariff expense next year as we compare it to this year.
展望明年,我們預期全年運行水準(run rate)會更接近約10億美元。因此,與今年相比,明年的關稅費用會有一些上升。
Thanks, Steve.
謝謝你,Steve。
Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst
Steven Fisher - Equity Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Chad Dillard, Bernstein.
Chad Dillard,Bernstein。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Hey. Good morning, everyone. So a couple of quick questions for you on C&F. First of all, just on pricing, looks like the guidance implies a 50-basis-point positive price versus plus 8 in the third quarter. So I just want to understand some of the moving dynamics behind that.
嗨。各位早安。我有幾個關於C&F的快速問題。首先是定價方面,看起來指引暗示價格正向貢獻50個基點,相較於第三季的正向8%。所以我想了解背後的一些變動因素。
And then the second question is maybe a bigger picture one on rental, and I'm talking about Deere's dealer rental aspirations. I guess, are you guys thinking about the size you want to grow? And then maybe just give a rough sense for how you're thinking that changes the economics of the business.
第二個問題可能更偏大方向,關於租賃(rental),我指的是Deere經銷商在租賃方面的企圖心。我想問你們是否在思考希望成長到多大的規模?另外也請大致說明一下,你們認為這會如何改變這門業務的經濟性。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chad, you were cutting out a little bit, but I think your first part of the question was related to pricing in C&F and what we expect. Maybe to give you a little bit of a run-up there, I mean, we started the year with 2.5%, and then basically with 3%, then we kind of rounded it down to 2.5%. Now, we're back up at full-year guide.
Chad,你剛剛有點斷訊,但我想你問題的第一部分是關於C&F的定價以及我們的預期。或許先給你一些脈絡:我們年初的指引是2.5%,之後基本上到3%,接著我們又把它大致下修回2.5%。現在我們又回到全年指引的水準。
The quarter came in pretty good. I mean, at 8%, there was quite frankly -- one part was an easy comps compared to last year. Keep in mind, Q3 in 2025, we had about 5% negative price in C&F, which was the result of some of the incentives we deployed in the market given the competitive environment at that point. So pretty good quarter there.
本季表現相當不錯。以8%來看,坦白說——其中一部分是相較去年基期較容易。請記得,2025年第三季我們在C&F的價格約為負5%,那是因為在當時的競爭環境下,我們在市場上推出了一些促銷激勵措施所致。所以這一季表現相當好。
But I think in Q4, I mean, you've seen the guide. We have the orders on hand there. Nothing outsized there from a year-over-year comps perspective. So pricing right now is going well in C&F. Road building certainly contributes to that as well, too, given our position there, but we feel good about the pricing there.
但我認為在第四季,你也看到了指引。我們手上已有訂單。從年對年比較的基期角度來看,沒有什麼特別異常。所以目前C&F的定價進展良好。道路建設業務也確實有所貢獻,考量我們在那裡的地位;總之我們對定價感到樂觀。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Chad. With respect to rental, we think there is an opportunity to further increase our exposure there. We participate both through our sales to the independent rental houses, but also our dealers participate in that market as well. We've seen rental just grow as a percentage of the overall earthmoving business. Today, anywhere from 30% to 35% of earthmoving transactions start as a rental, and we continue to see that grow.
嗨,Chad。就租賃而言,我們認為有機會進一步提高我們在那方面的曝險。我們一方面透過銷售給獨立租賃公司參與市場,另一方面我們的經銷商也在該市場中參與。我們看到租賃在整體土方工程(earthmoving)業務中的占比持續提升。目前大約有30%到35%的土方工程交易是從租賃開始的,而且我們仍持續看到這個比例成長。
So in part, our dealer-owned rental fleets have grown just as the market has grown. And then on top of that, we've also seen an increased appetite for some of them to invest in expanding their rental fleet and serving their customers even more in that space. So we think there's a meaningful opportunity to come, and it could help boost a little bit of the inventory fill that's to happen next year. So we'll wait and see to see how that progresses going into 2027.
因此,一部分是隨著市場成長,我們經銷商自有的租賃機隊也跟著擴大。此外,我們也看到其中一些經銷商更有意願投資擴充租賃機隊,在該領域更深入地服務客戶。所以我們認為未來會有相當可觀的機會,而且這可能有助於推升明年將發生的一部分庫存補充(inventory fill)。因此我們會持續觀察,看看在邁向2027年的過程中會如何發展。
Thanks, Chad.
謝謝你,Chad。
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Chad Dillard - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.
Angel Castillo,Morgan Stanley。
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to the EOPs. I think there was a comment about pricing covering inflation. And I guess I'm trying to understand, first, could you comment on some of the -- any merchandising incentives you might be doing and just what is the implication of that and any kind of pricing trends that you're seeing in your EOPs on margins as we go into next year? Meaning all else equal, I guess, is your backlog implying margins up, down, neutral? Any kind of directional commentary there.
嗨。謝謝讓我提問。我想回到EOPs(年末方案/期末方案)。我記得有提到定價可以覆蓋通膨。我想先了解:你們是否有在做任何行銷/促銷激勵(merchandising incentives)?其影響是什麼?以及你們在EOPs上看到的任何定價趨勢,對我們進入明年時的毛利率會有什麼含意?也就是說,在其他條件不變下,你們的在手訂單(backlog)所隱含的毛利率是上升、下降,還是持平?能否提供一些方向性的評論。
And then maybe a little bit of a bigger picture question. On the FTC settlement, could you comment on that on the right to repair issue? And just what, if any, implications that might have on your aftermarket business and the $2 billion to $3 billion, I think, that was related to the lifecycle parts over the next five years?
另外再問一個更宏觀的問題。關於與FTC的和解案,能否就「維修權」(right to repair)議題評論一下?以及這對你們售後市場業務是否會有任何影響,特別是我記得你們提到未來五年與全生命週期零件(lifecycle parts)相關的20億到30億美元?
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Angel, I start. Thanks for the question related to EOP pricing. I think there's two components of that. So one, overall, we are taking inflationary price in a very challenging environment right now for many of our producers. So we're taking a measured approach there, but we are committed to cover inflation here over time. So nothing outsized there from a pricing perspective.
Angel,我先開始。謝謝你關於EOP定價的問題。我認為這有兩個面向。第一,整體而言,在目前對許多生產者來說都非常具挑戰的環境下,我們正在採取反映通膨的定價。因此我們在這方面採取審慎、循序的作法,但我們承諾會在時間推移中覆蓋通膨。所以從定價角度來看,沒有任何特別超出常態的作法。
Keep in mind, we have several points in time in the year where we take pricing, whether it's a tractor order book, whether it's our combine EOP. So it's a composition of a few different decision points during the year.
請記得,我們一年中有好幾個時間點會進行定價調整,不論是拖拉機的訂單簿(order book),或是我們聯合收割機的EOP。因此它是由一年中幾個不同決策時間點所構成的組合。
Now, the inflationary environment, I think I don't need to tell you that it's dynamic right now. You think about oil prices, how they move and what that means. And also from a tariff perspective, suppliers experiencing tariffs too, they pass that on to us and negotiate with us around these. So still, I would call it a dynamic inflationary environment, but we are kind of committed to cover that.
至於通膨環境,我想不需要我多說,現在非常動態。你想想油價的波動以及其代表的意義。另外從關稅角度來看,供應商也在承受關稅,他們會把成本轉嫁給我們,並就這些議題與我們協商。所以我會稱之為一個仍然動態的通膨環境,但我們大致上仍承諾要把它覆蓋掉。
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Brent Norwood - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
And Angel, hey, this is Brent. As it relates to our Lifecycle Solutions business, what I would say is, first and foremost, John Deere has always supported our customers' ability to repair their own equipment for themselves or use whatever third-party they trust the most. And so that hasn't changed at all. I think the agreement does formalize some of the products and tools that we have and offer to the market and we think are industry leading.
Angel,嗨,我是Brent。就我們的全生命週期解決方案(Lifecycle Solutions)業務而言,我想說的是:首先也是最重要的,John Deere一向支持客戶自行維修其設備,或使用他們最信任的任何第三方來維修。因此這點完全沒有改變。我認為這份協議確實將我們已經擁有並提供給市場的一些產品與工具正式化,而我們也認為這些在業界是領先的。
In particular, John Deere Operations Center PRO Service enables our customers, if they choose to, have access to diagnostic tools, digital manuals, and maybe most importantly be able to do software updates on their own or through independent service advisors that they like.
特別是,John Deere Operations Center PRO 服務讓我們的客戶在他們選擇的情況下,能夠使用診斷工具、數位手冊,而且或許最重要的是,能夠自行進行軟體更新,或透過他們偏好的獨立服務顧問來完成。
And so we think this is industry leading. I think the agreement helps formalize some of the things that support our principles of allowing our customers the ability to maintain their own equipment. And we're really pleased with the tools that we have out there. And again, we think they're industry-leading. So I think it will help support long-term our aspirations and our Lifecycle Solutions business overall.
因此我們認為這在業界是領先的。我認為這項協議有助於將一些支持我們原則的事項制度化,也就是讓客戶有能力自行維護他們的設備。我們對目前已提供的工具感到非常滿意。而且再次強調,我們認為它們是業界領先的。所以我認為,長期而言,這將有助於支持我們的願景,以及我們整體的生命週期解決方案(Lifecycle Solutions)業務。
Thanks for the question, Angel.
謝謝你的提問,Angel。
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Angel Castillo - Analyst
Very helpful. Thank you.
非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mig Dobre, Baird.
Mig Dobre,Baird。
Peter Kalemkerian - Analyst
Peter Kalemkerian - Analyst
Hey. Thanks, guys. This is Peter Kalemkerian on from Mig this morning. Thank you for taking my question. I actually have a quick one here on Europe. Given the cap policy change that's set to take place in '28, do you think there's a chance that we see demand being pulled forward here in '27? Are your dealers maybe giving you any indication that that might be the case? Or perhaps the opposite, where we might actually see farmers delay purchases in Europe until there's some certainty with the new policy in '28? Just any color on what you're seeing in Europe would be great. And if you're willing, and I understand that it's early, to provide any directional forecast for that market in '27, that would also be great.
嗨。謝謝,各位。我是今天早上代 Mig 上線的 Peter Kalemkerian。謝謝你們接受我的提問。我這裡有一個關於歐洲的簡短問題。鑑於預計在 2028 年生效的 CAP 政策變更,你們認為是否有可能在 2027 年出現需求提前釋放(pull forward)的情況?你們的經銷商是否有任何跡象顯示可能會如此?或者相反地,我們是否可能看到歐洲農民延後採購,直到 2028 年新政策更明朗?任何你們在歐洲看到的情況補充都會很有幫助。另外如果你們願意(我也理解現在還早),提供對 2027 年該市場的任何方向性展望,也會很棒。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
I think the short answer is probably it's too early to tell right now. I think Europe, the environment over there, yes, there's also some policy movement going on there. But again, we typically have an order book, which is four to five months out. So kind of just starting collecting orders here for Q1.
我想簡短的答案可能是:現在判斷還太早。我認為歐洲那邊的環境,是的,也確實有一些政策變動正在進行。但同樣地,我們通常有一個訂單簿,大約是提前四到五個月。所以我們才剛開始收集第一季的訂單。
I talked about the difference in the arable segment and between dairy and livestock producers. So certainly, when it comes to their next year's crop, we need to see where input costs are, how commodity prices continue to trend, and that will probably shape sentiment here for PPA and the arable cost producers in Europe. I think on dairy and livestock, it looks fairly stable right now, so we feel good. But again, too early to tell whether policy impacts will pull demand forward or kind of delay it.
我談過耕作(arable)領域與乳品及畜牧生產者之間的差異。因此,確實就明年的作物而言,我們需要觀察投入成本落在什麼水準、商品價格走勢如何,這些可能會形塑歐洲 PPA 與耕作作物生產者的情緒。我認為在乳品與畜牧方面,目前看起來相當穩定,所以我們感覺不錯。但同樣地,政策影響究竟會讓需求提前,或是反而延後,現在還太早下定論。
Thanks for the question, though. Appreciate it. Maybe we have time for one more question here.
不過還是謝謝你的提問。很感謝。我們這裡可能還有時間再回答一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital Markets.
Sabahat Khan,RBC Capital Markets。
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Sabahat Khan - Analyst
Great. Thanks, and good morning. Just a quick one. I guess, just based on the current outlook, what you're seeing in the EOPs, obviously, the input costs are a big factor in the farmer decisions. Can you just share some early commentary on kind of the positioning the Brazilian farmers are taking and sort of what the US farmers are thinking from what you're hearing on how the input cost may trend and that ultimately affecting sort of the crop and their decision? Anything you're sort of hearing in those two markets? Thanks.
很好。謝謝,早安。我只有一個簡短問題。我想,根據目前的展望,以及你們在 EOPs 看到的情況,顯然投入成本是影響農民決策的一大因素。你能否分享一些初步看法:就你們聽到的情況,巴西農民目前採取的策略定位大概是什麼,以及美國農民在投入成本可能如何走勢、進而影響作物與其決策方面,是怎麼想的?你們在這兩個市場有聽到什麼嗎?謝謝。
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Deanna Kovar - President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production and Precision Ag and Americas and Australia markets
Yeah. Thanks for the question. Certainly, there is uncertainty around input prices no matter where in the world you're farming. Certainly, the impact of fertilizers is different for a Brazilian farmer than it is for a US farmer. But I would tell you that markets are reacting and farmers are looking for alternatives. Those alternatives might be in the types of products they're applying, the amount they're applying, or even at the broader scale how markets are serving through alternative sources.
是的。謝謝你的提問。無論在世界哪個地方務農,投入品價格都存在不確定性。肥料的影響對巴西農民與對美國農民而言確實不同。但我會告訴你,市場正在反應,而農民也在尋找替代方案。這些替代方案可能體現在施用的產品種類、施用的用量,甚至更宏觀地看,市場如何透過替代來源來供應。
So overall, I would say farmers continue to remain resilient as they think about fertilizer. Not necessarily are we seeing a huge reduction in what farmers are intending to apply, and they're out looking for yield just as much as they were prior to these fertilizer challenges. Certainly, farmers are keeping an open mind and considering how they might book future years. As we look at some of our larger farmers, they've got multiple years of inputs contracted. So they're also considering how they might change that going forward.
所以整體而言,我會說農民在思考肥料問題時仍然保持韌性。我們不一定看到農民打算施用的量有大幅下降;即使面臨這些肥料挑戰,他們對提升產量的追求仍與之前一樣。當然,農民也保持開放態度,並在考量他們可能如何預訂未來年度的投入品。就我們一些較大型的農戶而言,他們已簽約鎖定了多年的投入品。因此他們也在思考未來可能如何調整這些安排。
But overall, I think markets are reacting, farmers are staying nimble and considering how they might adjust their portfolios, but they still remain focused on driving yield and getting the best outcome they can.
但總體來看,我認為市場正在反應,農民保持靈活,並在考量如何調整他們的投入組合,但他們仍然專注於提升產量,並爭取能取得的最佳結果。
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
Chris Seibert - Director, Investor Relations
That's all the time we have. We appreciate everyone's time, and thanks for joining us today.
我們的時間就到這裡。感謝各位撥冗,也謝謝今天加入我們。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.
今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以中斷連線。