杜邦 (DD) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the DowDuPont Fourth Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Also today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Greg Friedman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加陶氏杜邦2017年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話將被錄音。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁格雷格‧弗里德曼先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Rochelle. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2017 earnings conference call.

謝謝你，羅謝爾。各位早安。感謝您參加我們2017年第四季及全年業績電話會議。

DowDuPont is making this call available to investors and media via webcast. We have prepared slides to support our comments. These slides are posted on the Investor Relations section of DowDuPont's website and through the link to our webcast.

陶氏杜邦將透過網路直播向投資者和媒體提供本次電話會議。我們準備了幻燈片來佐證我們的觀點。這些幻燈片已發佈在陶氏杜邦公司網站的投資者關係部分，也可透過我們網路直播的連結查看。

Speaking on the call today are Ed Breen, Chief Executive Officer; Howard Ungerleider, Chief Financial Officer; and Andrew Liveris, Executive Chairman. Also with us in the room today for our Q&A session are Jim Fitterling, Jim Collins and Marc Doyle, Chief Operating Officers for DowDuPont's Materials Science, Agriculture and Specialty Product division, respectively; and Neal Sheorey, Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天參加電話會議的有：執行長 Ed Breen；財務長 Howard Ungerleider；以及執行董事長 Andrew Liveris。今天和我們一起參加問答環節的還有陶氏杜邦材料科學、農業和特種產品部門的首席營運官吉姆·菲特林、吉姆·柯林斯和馬克·多伊爾；以及投資者關係副總裁尼爾·謝奧雷。

Please read the forward-looking statement disclaimer contained in the news release and slides. In summary, it indicates that statements in the news release, presentation and conference call that state the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future are forward-looking statements intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions under federal securities laws.

請閱讀新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的前瞻性聲明免責聲明。總之，這表明新聞稿、簡報和電話會議中有關公司或管理層對未來的預期或預測的聲明均為前瞻性聲明，旨在受到聯邦證券法安全港條款的保護。

Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

前瞻性陳述是基於目前的預期和假設，但存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。

A detailed discussion of principal risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results and events to differ materially from such forward-looking statements, is included in the section titled Risk Factors in each of DowDuPont's -- Dow's and DuPont's most recently quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

陶氏杜邦公司最近一份 10-Q 表格季度報告中的「風險因素」部分詳細討論了可能導致實際結果和事件與此類前瞻性聲明存在重大差異的主要風險和不確定性。

Last, we will also refer to non-GAAP measures.

最後，我們也會提到非GAAP指標。

A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and on our website.

與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表及其他相關披露信息，請參閱我們的盈利報告和網站。

I'll now turn the call over to Ed.

現在我將把電話交給艾德。

Great. Thanks, Greg, and thanks, everyone, for joining the DowDuPont fourth quarter earnings call. I'll start by covering the financial highlights, then I'll provide an update on our 3 key strategic drivers: the merger, the synergies and the spins.

偉大的。謝謝格雷格，也謝謝各位參加陶氏杜邦第四季財報電話會議。我將首先介紹財務亮點，然後介紹我們的 3 個關鍵策略驅動因素：合併、協同效應和分拆。

This past quarter marked the first full quarter of operations for DowDuPont, and as you saw, our teams delivered strong results.

上個季度是陶氏杜邦公司營運的第一個完整季度，正如你所看到的，我們的團隊取得了強勁的業績。

Turning to Slide 4. The fourth quarter highlights were: sales increased 13%; volume rose 6%, well ahead of global GDP; operating EBITDA grew 24%; and adjusted EPS increased 41%. We benefited from strong underlying demand for our products and leading positions in growing markets. All 8 operating segments reported quarterly sales growth as did every geography. We delivered excellent operating EBITDA leverage. Operating EBITDA rose in nearly every segment on increased volume and price, cost synergies, lower pension and OPEB costs and higher equity earnings.

翻到第 4 張投影片。第四季亮點如下：銷售額成長 13%；銷售成長 6%，遠超全球 GDP 成長速度；營業 EBITDA 成長 24%；調整後每股盈餘成長 41%。我們受益於市場對我們產品的強勁潛在需求以及在成長型市場中的領先地位。所有 8 個營運部門以及所有地區都實現了季度銷售成長。我們實現了優異的營運 EBITDA 槓桿率。由於銷售和價格上漲、成本協同效應、退休金和退休後福利成本降低以及股權收益增加，幾乎所有業務部門的營業 EBITDA 均有所增長。

For the full year, the trends were directionally similar. Pro forma sales, operating EBITDA and adjusted EPS all grew by double-digit percentages.

全年來看，趨勢大致相同。備考銷售額、營業 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益均實現了兩位數百分比的成長。

Now I'll share an update on the merger, synergies and intended spins. Since our last earnings call, we completed the sale of certain Dow Brazil corn seed asset. This was the third and final key remedy divestiture required by regulators. In addition, we completed the realignment of our businesses. Management responsibility for the businesses shifting from the Materials Science division to the Specialty Products division now rests with the new leaders. With that work behind us, our focus now turns to the synergies and the intended spins.

現在我將分享有關合併、協同效應和計劃分拆的最新情況。自上次財報電話會議以來，我們已完成對陶氏巴西玉米種子資產的部分出售。這是監管機構要求的第三項也是最後一項關鍵補救措施——資產剝離。此外，我們完成了業務重組。從材料科學部門轉移到特種產品部門的業務的管理責任現在由新的領導層承擔。這項工作完成後，我們的重點現在轉向協同效應和預期的發展方向。

Our goal is to hit a run rate of $500 million in cost synergies by the end of 2017. We exceeded this goal. We executed projects with run rate savings of more than $800 million at the end of the year. In fact, about 75% of our synergy projects have now been launched. And as a result of that quick start, our realized savings in the fourth quarter were more than $200 million.

我們的目標是到 2017 年底實現 5 億美元的成本綜效。我們超額完成了這個目標。截至年底，我們執行的專案累計節省成本超過 8 億美元。事實上，我們約 75% 的協同計畫目前已經啟動。由於這一快速啟動，我們在第四季度實現了超過 2 億美元的節省。

Today, we are pleased to announce that we have raised our cost synergy commitment to $3.3 billion, up 10% versus our original plan. The lion's share of the increase reflects upside from procurement. Our procurement teams have worked across DowDuPont together, going contract by contract, to identify savings opportunity and have been incentivized to deliver and lock in the highest possible savings.

今天，我們很高興地宣布，我們將成本綜效承諾提高至 33 億美元，比原計劃增加 10%。成長的大部分反映了採購方面的利多。我們的採購團隊在陶氏杜邦公司內部通力合作，逐一合約進行審查，以發現節省成本的機會，並激勵他們實現和鎖定盡可能高的成本節約。

Here's how the new synergy commitment breaks down by division. We see $1.1 billion coming from Ag, $1.235 billion from Materials and $965 million from Specialty Product.

以下是按部門劃分的新協同承諾的詳細情況。預計農業將帶來 11 億美元的收入，材料將帶來 12.35 億美元的收入，特種產品將帶來 9.65 億美元的收入。

Finally, on Slide 5, we'll update you on our time line for the separations and intended spins. Based on our progress this past quarter with identifying ways to accelerate the spin timing, we no longer expect our spins to take up to 24 months from merge date. Rather, we now expect to complete the separations about 14 to 16 months from today. We anticipate Materials Science separating first by the end of the first quarter of '19, and we expect Agriculture and Specialty Products to separate shortly after that by June 1, 2019.

最後，在第 5 張投影片中，我們將向您介紹分離和預期旋轉的時間表。根據我們上個季度在尋找加快分拆速度的方法方面取得的進展，我們不再預期分拆從合併之日起需要長達 24 個月的時間。相反，我們現在預計將在大約 14 到 16 個月內完成分離工作。我們預計材料科學業務將於 2019 年第一季末率先分拆，農業和特殊產品業務將於 2019 年 6 月 1 日之前分拆。

The next steps, as you can see, include allocating assets and liabilities to each of the independent companies we are standing up in such a way that we achieve the desired credit ratings and that we can compete well with peers in our respective industries. I'll keep you apprised of our efforts with this time line on each of our earnings calls. In addition, you'll be able to see our progress when we file the initial Form 10s this fall when they go effective about 6 months later subject to SEC approval and when we launch our equity road shows before listing the securities.

如您所見，接下來的步驟包括將資產和負債分配給我們正在成立的每家獨立公司，以便我們獲得所需的信用評級，並能夠在各自的行業中與同行展開良好競爭。我會在每次財報電話會議上，根據這個時間表，向您報告我們的工作進度。此外，您將能夠看到我們在今年秋季提交首批 10 表格時取得的進展，這些表格將在大約 6 個月後生效（需經美國證券交易委員會批准），以及我們在證券上市前開展股權路演時取得的進展。

In summary, our businesses are performing well. The spins are anticipated to occur in only 14 to 16 months from today. And meanwhile, we are taking up our cost synergy number to $3.3 billion. We are excited about the opportunity ahead for our company and for our shareholders as we create these 3 companies, each focused on serving specific growth industries with more agility and lower cost structures. With more than $4 billion combined in cost and growth synergies, we feel very much in control of our future.

總而言之，我們的業務表現良好。預計自轉將在距今僅 14 至 16 個月內發生。同時，我們的成本協同效應數字將達到 33 億美元。我們對公司和股東即將迎來的機會感到興奮，我們將創建這 3 家公司，每家公司都專注於以更靈活、成本更低的方式服務於特定的成長產業。憑藉超過 40 億美元的成本和成長協同效應，我們對自己的未來充滿信心。

Now let me turn the call over to Howard to review our financial results in more detail.

現在我把電話交給霍華德，讓他更詳細地回顧我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Ed. Moving to Slide 6 and a summary of our fourth quarter result. As Ed mentioned, we closed the year with strong financial performance, achieving double-digit top and bottom line growth. Drivers of the EPS increase include: strong business results, quick actions to capture cost synergies, contributions from new capacity additions, improved equity earnings and a benefit from lower pension and OPEB costs with approximately 2/3 of these costs in the Specialty Products segment. Our double-digit sales increase was driven by broad-based volume growth in all operating segments and geographies and price gains in all geographies.

謝謝你，艾德。接下來是第6張投影片，總結一下我們第四季的業績。正如 Ed 所提到的，我們以強勁的財務業績結束了這一年，實現了兩位數的營收和利潤成長。每股盈餘成長的驅動因素包括：強勁的業務績效、快速採取行動以實現成本協同效應、新增產能帶來的貢獻、股權收益的改善以及退休金和退休後福利成本降低的好處，其中約 2/3 的成本來自特種產品部門。我們兩位數的銷售額成長得益於所有營運部門和地區的銷售全面成長以及所有地區的價格上漲。

Volume grew 6% on strong consumer demand across all of our key end markets. From a geography perspective, we saw particular strength in EMEA driven by the continued ramp-up of Sadara and in Asia Pacific also due to the contributions from Sadara as well as strong demand in Electronics & Imaging.

由於所有主要終端市場強勁的消費者需求，銷量成長了 6%。從地理角度來看，歐洲、中東和非洲地區表現尤為強勁，這主要得益於 Sadara 的持續擴張；亞太地區也表現強勁，這同樣得益於 Sadara 的貢獻以及電子和影像領域的強勁需求。

Local price rose 5% as we drove pricing initiatives in all geographies in response to higher raw material costs and tighter supply-demand fundamentals.

由於原物料成本上漲和供需基本面趨緊，我們在所有地區推行定價舉措，導致當地價格上漲 5%。

Equity earnings increased, led by improved results from Sadara and increased earnings from Hemlock Semiconductor.

股權收益成長，主要得益於 Sadara 業績改善和 Hemlock Semiconductor 收益增加。

And as Ed mentioned, we delivered great early progress on our cost synergies through to the bottom line.

正如 Ed 所提到的，我們在成本協同效應方面取得了顯著的早期進展，並最終提高了利潤。

These gains translated to operating EBITDA of $3.9 billion in the quarter.

這些收益轉化為本季 39 億美元的營業 EBITDA。

Cash flow from operations in the quarter was $4.2 billion, driven by increased cash earnings and Ag's seasonal cash inflow, partly offset by contributions to pension plan.

本季經營活動產生的現金流量為 42 億美元，主要得益於現金收益增加和農業部門的季節性現金流入，但部分被退休金計畫的繳款所抵銷。

And we returned nearly $2 billion of cash to our owners, which included $1 billion of share repurchases.

我們向股東返還了近 20 億美元的現金，其中包括 10 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to the drivers of our tax rate as well as our 2018 guidance in light of U.S. tax reform. This quarter's operating tax rate was 18%, which was lower than our modeling guidance, primarily due to our geographic mix of earnings and benefits from changes in tax rate in certain foreign jurisdictions. You will also see that we recognized a net tax benefit of $1.1 billion resulting from a new tax legislation. This benefit is based on 2 pieces. The first is a gain of $2.7 billion, which was primarily driven by the remeasurement of our deferred tax assets and liabilities. This net benefit was principally due to the purchase accounting step-up as a result of the merger, which was partially offset by a $1.6 billion charge for our foreign unrepatriated earnings.

接下來，我們將探討影響我們稅率的因素，並根據美國稅改情況，制定 2018 年的指導方針。本季的營業稅率為 18%，低於我們的模型預測，這主要是由於我們的收益地域組合以及某些外國司法管轄區稅率變化帶來的收益。您還會看到，由於一項新的稅收立法，我們確認了11億美元的淨稅收優惠。這項優惠基於兩件商品。首先是 27 億美元的收益，這主要是由於我們重新計量了遞延所得稅資產和負債。這項淨收益主要歸功於合併帶來的購買會計調整，但部分被我們16億美元的海外未匯回收益費用所抵銷。

Looking ahead, we expect the U.S. tax reform to lower our 2018 tax rate by 1 to 2 percentage points to a range of 20% to 23%.

展望未來，我們預期美國稅制改革將使我們 2018 年的稅率降低 1 至 2 個百分點，降至 20% 至 23% 的範圍內。

Now turning to our segment results, starting with Ag on Slide 7. In a tough ag market, our business grew, delivering gains in the quarter and for the full year. In the fourth quarter, operating EBITDA more than doubled to $224 million primarily driven by cost synergies, volume increases and a net portfolio gain. Sales growth was realized in both feed and crop protection. Seed volume and price rose on earlier Brazil safrinha deliveries, doubling of corn sales in Argentina driven by penetration of Leptra corn hybrids and growth in the European sunflower and corn seed business.

現在來看看我們各業務板塊的業績，首先是第 7 頁的農業部門。在農業市場低迷的情況下，我們的業務實現了成長，本季和全年均取得了收益。第四季度，營運 EBITDA 成長超過一倍，達到 2.24 億美元，主要得益於成本綜效、銷售成長和淨投資組合收益。飼料和作物保護產品的銷售額均實現了成長。受巴西早期 safrinha 玉米種子交付量和價格上漲的影響，阿根廷玉米銷量翻了一番，這主要得益於 Leptra 玉米雜交品種的滲透以及歐洲向日葵和玉米種子業務的增長。

Crop protection volume increased, driven primarily by the continued penetration of new products such as Vessarya fungicide and increased demand for Optinyte nitrogen stabilizers. Volume growth was offset by pricing declines driven by generic pricing pressure, specifically in Latin America and Asia Pacific.

作物保護產品銷售增加，主要得益於 Vessarya 殺菌劑等新產品的持續滲透以及對 Optinyte 氮穩定劑需求的增加。受仿製藥價格壓力影響，尤其是在拉丁美洲和亞太地區，銷售成長被價格下降所抵銷。

Looking ahead for Ag, we anticipate full year sales to increase in the mid-single digits percent range and operating EBITDA to increase in the high teens percent range. For the year, we expect to deliver top and bottom line growth driven by new product introductions and cost synergy delivery. We estimate first half sales and operating EBITDA to be about equal to last year, which is in line with the estimated corn area planted in North America in 2018 and reflective of the challenging price environment. We anticipate about 45% of the first half results landing in the first quarter and 55% in the second quarter. We also anticipate a ramp in our cost synergy realization in the second half and expect our new product introductions to be fully ramped and contributing to growth in the latter half of the year.

展望未來，我們預期農業部門全年銷售額將成長個位數百分比，營運 EBITDA 將成長十幾個百分點。今年，我們預計在新產品推出和成本綜效的推動下，營收和利潤將實現成長。我們預計上半年銷售額和營業 EBITDA 與去年同期基本持平，這與 2018 年北美玉米種植面積的估計值相符，也反映了充滿挑戰的價格環境。我們預計上半年業績的約 45% 將在第一季實現，55% 將在第二季實現。我們也預計下半年成本綜效將逐步實現，並預計下半年新產品的推出將全面鋪開，為成長做出貢獻。

Turning to Materials Science on Slide 8. Performance Materials & Coatings operating EBITDA increased to $613 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $392 million, primarily due to increased pricing, higher equity earnings, strong end market demand and cost synergies. Consumer Solutions delivered double-digit sales growth in all geographies, driven by strong gains in local price in Asia Pacific and EMEA.

翻到第 8 張投影片，來看材料科學。高性能材料和塗料業務的營業 EBITDA 增至 6.13 億美元，高於先前的備考營業 EBITDA 3.92 億美元，主要原因是價格上漲、股權收益增加、終端市場需求強勁以及成本協同效應。消費者解決方案業務在所有地區均實現了兩位數的銷售成長，這主要得益於亞太地區和歐洲、中東及非洲地區本地價格的強勁成長。

Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure operating EBITDA rose to $677 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $489 million on pricing momentum, improved equity earnings, demand growth and cost synergy. Polyurethanes and CAV benefited from strong demand and price increases in downstream systems applications as well as from tight MDI fundamentals. Industrial Solutions achieved double-digit sales growth, led by demand in electronic processing, crop defense and food and pharmaceuticals.

工業中間體和基礎設施業務的營運 EBITDA 增至 6.77 億美元，高於先前的備考營運 EBITDA 4.89 億美元，這得益於價格上漲勢頭、股權收益改善、需求成長和成本協同效應。聚氨酯和 CAV 受益於下游系統應用的強勁需求和價格上漲，以及 MDI 基本面的緊俏。工業解決方案實現了兩位數的銷售成長，主要得益於電子加工、作物防禦以及食品和製藥領域的需求。

The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment reported operating EBITDA of $1.3 billion, flat with pro forma operating EBITDA in the year ago period. Price and volume gains offset increased feedstock costs, production and cost impacts from hurricane-related disruptions, maintenance activities as well as commissioning and start-up costs.

包裝及特殊塑膠業務部門報告稱，其營業 EBITDA 為 13 億美元，與去年同期的備考營業 EBITDA 持平。價格和銷售的成長抵消了原料成本的增加、颶風造成的生產和成本中斷、維護活動以及調試和啟動成本的影響。

The Packaging & Specialty Plastics business delivered double-digit sales growth in food and specialty packaging as well as in industrial and consumer packaging in EMEA. Volume growth in North America was driven by robust demand in food and specialty packaging as well as in health and hygiene applications.

包裝及特殊塑膠業務在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的食品和特殊包裝以及工業和消費品包裝領域實現了兩位數的銷售成長。北美地區的銷售成長主要得益於食品和特殊包裝以及健康和衛生應用領域的強勁需求。

Looking ahead, the business continues to advance the next tranches of growth. Our NORDEL EPDM facility is mechanically complete and well into commissioning activities. In fact, the unit just recently produced its first prime material and will spend the remainder of the first quarter ramping to rates and qualifying product with customers, reaching full start-up by the end of the first quarter. Additionally, our new low-density polyethylene unit is also mechanically complete and we expect it to be started up by the end of the first quarter.

展望未來，公司將繼續推進下一階段的成長。我們的 NORDEL EPDM 工廠機械結構已完工，並已順利進入調試階段。事實上，該部門最近才生產出第一批主要材料，並將於第一季剩餘時間逐步提高產量，並與客戶進行產品驗證，在第一季末全面啟動。此外，我們新的低密度聚乙烯裝置在機械方面也已完成，我們預計將在第一季末啟動。

Moving to Specialty Products on Slide 9. Electronics & Imaging achieved operating EBITDA of $367 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $331 million. Volume growth and cost synergies more than offset hurricane-related costs, a negative impact from portfolio and higher raw material costs. Growth in this segment was driven by double-digit volume gains in consumer electronics, industrial and semiconductor end markets.

在第 9 張投影片中，我們來看特種產品。電子與影像業務的營運 EBITDA 為 3.67 億美元，高於先前的備考營運 EBITDA 3.31 億美元。銷售成長和成本綜效足以抵銷颶風相關成本、投資組合的負面影響以及原物料成本上漲。該領域的成長主要得益於消費性電子、工業和半導體終端市場兩位數的銷售成長。

Nutrition & Biosciences reported operating EBITDA of $352 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $309 million, primarily driven by a portfolio benefit, cost synergies and volume growth. Volume gains were led by increased demand for bioactives, continued growth in probiotics, demand for microbial control solutions in energy markets and growth in pharmaceuticals.

營養與生物科學業務報告稱，其營運 EBITDA 為 3.52 億美元，高於先前公佈的 3.09 億美元，主要得益於產品組合收益、成本協同效應和銷售成長。銷售成長主要得益於對生物活性物質需求的增加、益生菌的持續成長、能源市場對微生物控制解決方案的需求以及製藥業的成長。

Transportation & Advanced Polymers operating EBITDA increased to $365 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $276 million. Benefits from volume gains, improved local price and cost synergies more than offset higher raw material costs. Double-digit sales growth was led by strong demand from the automotive, electronics and industrial markets.

運輸和先進聚合物業務的經營性 EBITDA 增至 3.65 億美元，高於備考經營性 EBITDA 2.76 億美元。銷售成長、本地價格改善和成本綜效帶來的收益足以抵銷原物料成本上漲。兩位數的銷售成長主要得益於汽車、電子和工業市場的強勁需求。

Safety & Construction achieved operating EBITDA of $285 million, up from pro forma operating EBITDA of $227 million on broad-based volume growth including solid demand across industrial markets, construction and medical packaging.

安全與建築業務的營運 EBITDA 為 2.85 億美元，高於先前的備考營運 EBITDA 2.27 億美元，這得益於包括工業市場、建築和醫療包裝在內的廣泛銷售成長。

Looking ahead to the full year for this division, we can see -- we continued -- we see continued strong market demand, namely, from semiconductor, nutrition, construction and automotive markets. We plan to continue to add capacity in higher growth areas where we offer compelling customer benefit. We are talking to customers about our enhanced offerings based on the portfolio realignment and are making good progress with the cost synergy delivery plans, resulting in gross margin expansion in all 4 segments.

展望該部門全年的發展，我們可以看到——正如我們之前所說——市場需求持續強勁，尤其是在半導體、營養、建築和汽車市場。我們計劃繼續在高成長領域增加產能，以便為客戶帶來顯著利益。我們正在與客戶討論基於產品組合調整而增強的產品和服務，並且在成本協同效應交付計劃方面取得了良好進展，從而在所有 4 個業務部門實現了毛利率的增長。

We see top line growth for the group at global GDP or better, led by Nutrition & Biosciences, which will benefit from a full year of the FMC business and gains in Safety & Construction.

我們預計集團營收將達到或超過全球GDP水平，主要得益於營養與生物科學業務的成長，該業務將受益於FMC業務的全年營運以及安全與建築業務的收益。

Turning to our modeling guidance on Slide 10, starting with our first quarter outlook. We expect continued healthy demand as well as pricing gains across most of our businesses. At the company level, we expect net sales to be in the range of $20.5 billion to $21.3 billion. Operating EBITDA is expected to be in range of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion.

接下來，我們來看第 10 張投影片中的建模指導，首先是第一季的展望。我們預計大部分業務的需求將持續保持健康成長，價格也將上漲。公司層面，我們預期淨銷售額將在 205 億美元至 213 億美元之間。預計營運 EBITDA 將在 46 億美元至 48 億美元之間。

First quarter results in the Ag segment will be impacted by a timing shift of sales into the second quarter resulting from an expected delay in farmers' final planting decisions in North America. The quarterly results will also be negatively impacted by an expected unfavorable product mix in the Brazil sanfrinha season, driven by the delayed summer season harvest.

由於北美農民最終種植決定預計會推遲，導致銷售額推遲到第二季度，這將影響農業部門第一季的業績。由於夏季收成延遲，預計巴西聖弗林哈季的產品組合將出現不利變化，這將對季度業績產生負面影響。

Excluding the Ag segment, DowDuPont's first quarter sales and operating EBITDA are expected to increase 8% and 13% year-over-year, respectively. Volume gains, pricing momentum, cost synergies and lower pension OPEB costs are anticipated to more than offset higher feedstock costs.

剔除農業業務部門後，陶氏杜邦第一季銷售額和營業 EBITDA 預計分別年增 8% 和 13%。預計銷售成長、價格上漲動能、成本綜效以及退休金 OPEB 成本降低將足以抵銷原料成本上漲帶來的影響。

On the U.S. Gulf Coast, recent severe winter weather has caused operational and logistics issues across the industry. We expect this to translate into a headwind of $50 million to $70 million for the Materials Science portfolio, which will be partly offset by the earnings contributions from the U.S. Gulf Coast start-ups.

美國墨西哥灣沿岸地區近期嚴寒的冬季天氣為整個產業的營運和物流帶來了許多問題。我們預計這將為材料科學投資組合帶來 5,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的不利影響，但美國墨西哥灣沿岸新創企業的收益貢獻將部分抵銷這一影響。

I also encourage you to refer to Slide 18 in the appendix for further commentary on our segment outlook for the first quarter.

我還建議您參考附錄中的第 18 頁投影片，以進一步了解我們對第一季各業務板塊的展望。

Next, I'll briefly outline our expectations for the full year 2018, which you'll find on Slide 11. We expect top line growth in the mid-single-digit percent driven by continued healthy demand in our core end markets. We expect EPS growth in the mid- to high teens percent on improved business results including contributions from new capacity additions, cost synergies and lower pension and OPEB costs. Higher interest expense related to our growth projects coming online will be partly offset by the tailwind from a lower tax rate.

接下來，我將簡要概述我們對 2018 年全年的預期，您可以在第 11 頁幻燈片中找到相關內容。我們預計，在核心終端市場持續強勁的需求推動下，營收將實現中等個位數百分比的成長。我們預計，由於新增產能、成本綜效以及退休金和退休後福利成本的降低等因素帶來的業務績效改善，每股盈餘將成長15%至10%以上。與我們不斷增長的項目上線相關的較高利息支出將被較低的稅率帶來的利好部分抵消。

Finally, I'd like to end with some comments on Sadara on Slide 12. In 2017, the JV made significant strides bringing all 26 units at this world-class site online. In the fourth quarter, Sadara steadily ramped up its asset and tested the site's full integration. The JV's strong operational performance gives us confidence as we move toward the next step, the lender reliability test. Sadara is planning to conduct test runs in the coming months and expects to be ready for a full LRT late this year or early next year.

最後，我想就第 12 張投影片上的 Sadara 做一些評論。2017 年，合資企業取得了重大進展，使這個世界級基地的全部 26 個單元投入使用。第四季度，Sadara 穩步提升了資產規模，並測試了網站的全面整合。合資企業強勁的營運表現讓我們對下一步——貸款方可靠性測試——充滿信心。Sadara計劃在未來幾個月進行試運行，預計今年底或明年年初做好全面開通輕軌的準備。

Here are some points on the scale and breadth we've already achieved. In 2017, Sadara produced 4 billion more pounds of product than 2016. Sadara's polyethylene has already been supplied to more than 700 customers in 71 countries. The EO derivatives are ramping up with product already delivered to 240 customers in 50 countries. And in the isocyanate chain, Sadara has delivered MDI to nearly 200 customers in almost 40 countries, and TDI sales are just beginning.

以下是我們已取得的規模和廣度方面的一些成就。2017 年，Sadara 的產品產量比 2016 年增加了 40 億磅。Sadara 的聚乙烯產品已供應給 71 個國家的 700 多家客戶。EO衍生物的產量正在迅速成長，產品已交付給50個國家的240家客戶。在異氰酸酯產業鏈中，Sadara 已向近 40 個國家的近 200 家客戶交付了 MDI，而 TDI 的銷售才剛起步。

Sadara is well positioned to meet the strong consumer-led growth drivers in the emerging regions of Asia, Eastern Europe, India and Africa.

Sadara 已做好充分準備，以滿足亞洲、東歐、印度和非洲等新興地區強勁的消費驅動型成長需求。

Financially, in 2017, the JV performed in line or better than the guidance we provided in terms of its contributions to Materials Science's revenue, EBITDA and cash flow. As we look to 2018, and the JV enters its first year of full commercial operations, we see a $200 million tailwind to EBITDA from Sadara on a year-over-year basis. This is an important step toward the long-term profitability of this JV, and it shows that the JV is making solid progress in spite of the underlying factors that have changed since both partners authorized the project. Sadara, with oversight from both partners, is implementing an action plan that aligns to these new realities. And that's why we and our partner remain fully committed to this growth investment and the long-term average annual contribution from Sadara, which we still see as about $400 million a year over the cycle.

2017 年，合資企業在財務方面表現符合或優於我們提供的指導，其對材料科學的收入、EBITDA 和現金流的貢獻均達到或超過了預期。展望 2018 年，合資企業進入全面商業營運的第一年，我們預計 Sadara 將為 EBITDA 帶來 2 億美元的年成長。這是朝著該合資企業長期盈利邁出的重要一步，也表明儘管自雙方批准該項目以來一些根本因素發生了變化，但該合資企業仍在穩步推進。在雙方合作夥伴的監督下，Sadara 正在實施一項符合這些新現實的行動計畫。正因為如此，我們和我們的合作夥伴仍然全力投入這項成長投資，並期待 Sadara 長期平均每年貢獻約 4 億美元（按週期計算）。

As we look ahead, Sadara will continue executing its go-forward action plan. This includes further ramping operating rates, selling out and optimizing the product mix, scaling down start-up and commissioning and preparing the site and our teams for LRT activities.

展望未來，Sadara 將繼續執行其後續行動計畫。這包括進一步提高營運率、售罄和優化產品組合、縮小啟動和調試規模，以及為輕軌活動做好場地和團隊準備。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andrew.

接下來，我會把電話交給安德魯。

Thank you, Howard. On Slide 13, I want to start by acknowledging the incredible progress our teams and our board have together achieved in just 5 short months. We are already demonstrating the value creation potential of this historic merge-and-spin transaction.

謝謝你，霍華德。在第 13 張投影片上，我想先肯定我們的團隊和董事會在短短 5 個月內共同取得的驚人進展。我們已經展現出這項歷史性的併購分拆交易的價值創造潛力。

Here are the headlines since closing the merger on September 1. We realigned the portfolio, further positioning the intended spins for long-term competitive advantage and sustainable growth with unanimous board approval just 12 days after merger close. All remedy actions required to close the merger were completed on target. Our board announced a dividend and buyback plan, and we immediately began returning cash to our owners with nearly $2 billion returned in the fourth quarter alone. We rapidly made progress against our cost synergy commitment. As Ed and Howard mentioned, we exited the quarter ahead of our run rate commitment and are already seeing cost reductions hit the bottom line, and our confidence led us to increase our synergy commitment now to $3.3 billion.

以下是自 9 月 1 日完成合併以來的主要新聞。我們重新調整了投資組合，進一步鞏固了預期分拆業務的長期競爭優勢和永續成長，並在合併完成後僅 12 天就獲得了董事會的一致批准。為完成合併所需的所有補救措施均已按計劃完成。我們的董事會宣布了一項分紅和股票回購計劃，我們立即開始向股東返還現金，僅在第四季度就返還了近 20 億美元。我們在成本協同效應方面迅速取得了進展。正如 Ed 和 Howard 所提到的，我們本季提前完成了既定的營運目標，並且已經看到成本削減對利潤產生了積極影響，因此我們有信心將協同效應投入增加到 33 億美元。

On the spin timing, we announced today an accelerated time line to unlock these 3 world-class companies with Materials Science spinning first, followed shortly after by the separation of Agriculture and Specialty Products.

關於分拆時間，我們今天宣布了一項加快的時間表，將首先分拆材料科學領域的這三家世界級公司，隨後不久將分拆農業和特種產品領域。

And last, but not least, we remain squarely focused on operational discipline, commercial excellence and agile business management, delivering double-digit top and bottom line growth this year.

最後，也是非常重要的一點，我們將繼續專注於營運紀律、卓越的商業表現和敏捷的業務管理，力爭今年實現兩位數的營收和利潤成長。

In sum, it was a breakthrough year for DowDuPont and our stakeholders, one where we delivered on all of our financial, strategic and operational commitment.

總而言之，對於陶氏杜邦及其利害關係人而言，這是突破性的一年，我們實現了所有財務、策略和營運承諾。

On Slide 14, I want to take a broader view of the growth investments in our control. As we work through the steps of this transaction, our 3 divisions are capitalizing on a series of strategic investments in their core end markets and continuing to expand our portfolio to meet rising consumer demand.

在第 14 張投影片中，我想更全面地了解我們可控範圍內的成長投資。在我們推動這項交易的各個步驟的同時，我們的三個部門正在利用一系列對其核心終端市場的策略性投資，並繼續擴大我們的產品組合，以滿足不斷增長的消費者需求。

First in Ag. We successfully launched Enlist cotton in 2017 and achieved approval to enable the full launch of Enlist corn in the U.S. and Canada for the 2018 growing season.

農業領域第一名我們於 2017 年成功推出了 Enlist 棉花，並獲得了批准，使得 Enlist 玉米得以在美國和加拿大全面上市，迎接 2018 年的種植季。

We also completed the acquisition of Granular, which will further position us to help growers enhance their business.

我們也完成了對 Granular 的收購，這將進一步幫助我們幫助種植者提升業務。

Looking ahead, our combined Ag pipeline is stronger than ever and we expect to launch 21 new products in the next 5 years, equally balanced between seed and crop protection.

展望未來，我們綜合農業產品線比以往任何時候都更加強大，我們預計在未來 5 年內推出 21 款新產品，種子和作物保護產品將保持均衡。

In Materials Science, we will continue to capture growth from our capacity expansions in the Middle East and on the U.S. Gulf Coast. We are bringing on the industry's broadest and most differentiated derivative slate at a time when demand for our products and technologies is robust around the globe.

在材料科學領域，我們將繼續從我們在中東和美國墨西哥灣沿岸的產能擴張中獲得成長。在全球對我們的產品和技術需求強勁之際，我們推出了業界最廣泛、最具差異化的衍生產品組合。

And finally, in Specialty Products, we are adding capacity in higher-growth end markets to meet increasing demand from our customers. For example, Electronics & Imaging is bringing on additional capacity for CMP pad production at a time when demand for our unique capabilities is very strong.

最後，在特種產品領域，我們正在高成長的終端市場增加產能，以滿足客戶不斷增長的需求。例如，電子與成像部門正在增加 CMP 拋光墊的生產能力，而目前市場對我們獨特能力的需求非常強勁。

In Nutrition 7 Health, we're expanding capacity in probiotics, enabling us to strengthen our position as an industry leader and allowing for an increased pace of new product development.

在 Nutrition 7 Health 領域，我們正在擴大益生菌的產能，這將使我們能夠鞏固作為行業領導者的地位，並加快新產品的開發速度。

And for Transportation & Advanced Polymers, we're adding extrusion capacity to reflect trends in the automotive sector.

在交通運輸和先進聚合物領域，我們正在增加擠出產能，以反映汽車產業的發展趨勢。

These growth investments and many others in our playbook position each intended spin for enhanced earnings growth and cash flow generation as well as further strengthen their long-term competitive advantages.

這些成長投資以及我們策略計畫中的許多其他投資，旨在提高每項預期的分拆收益和現金流，並進一步加強其長期競爭優勢。

With that, I will turn to our near-term outlook on Slide 15. Throughout much of the world, economic expansion has gained momentum driven in large part by robust and upbeat fundamentals in consumer and business confidence, employment and wage growth and manufacturing and infrastructure investment activity. In fact, for the first time in many years, we are seeing broad-based synchronous growth around the world. In developed economies in particular, we continue to see strong leading indicators of broad-based and sustainable growth. In addition, we see the comprehensive tax reform in the United States as a catalyst for increased domestic capital investment, which will take advantage of enhanced competitiveness and pro-business investment incentives. We're also bullish on developing economies where the emerging middle class in India, China, Africa and the Middle East continues to support sustainable growth.

接下來，我將在第 15 張投影片中談談我們的近期展望。在世界大部分地區，經濟擴張勢頭強勁，這在很大程度上得益於消費者和企業信心、就業和工資增長以及製造業和基礎設施投資活動的強勁和樂觀的基本面。事實上，多年來我們首次看到全球範圍內出現大規模的同步成長。尤其是在已開發經濟體中，我們持續看到廣泛且可持續成長的強勁領先指標。此外，我們認為美國的全面稅收改革將成為促進國內資本投資成長的催化劑，這將利用增強的競爭力和有利於商業的投資誘因。我們也看好發展中經濟體，印度、中國、非洲和中東等地新興的中產階級將持續支持永續成長。

We are mindful that volatility and uncertainty remains in this environment, and there are select centers where we are cautious, most notably, Ag, as we see soft market fundamentals persisting in the near term. But on the whole, we are optimistic about the products and technologies within DowDuPont's portfolio, which are well positioned to meet growing needs in our core end markets.

我們意識到當前環境仍然存在波動性和不確定性，我們對某些特定領域持謹慎態度，尤其是農業領域，因為我們看到疲軟的市場基本面在短期內仍將持續。但總的來說，我們對陶氏杜邦產品組合中的產品和技術持樂觀態度，這些產品和技術能夠很好地滿足我們核心終端市場不斷增長的需求。

I will close with our priorities going forward on Slide 16. Simply put, they are: delivering greater earnings and cash flow growth, achieving our cost and growth synergy commitments and driving towards standing up and separating the intended companies. All 3 of these priorities are shared by your board with a focus of the board squarely on delivering the increased synergies, achieving all the milestones on spin timing, ensuring the capital structure of the intended spins such that each can achieve their targeted credit ratings and driving the accelerated spin time line that we showed you today. The board and management team have never been more confident in the teams we have in place to deliver against our key priority.

最後，我將在第 16 頁投影片中介紹我們未來的工作重點。簡而言之，它們分別是：實現更高的收益和現金流成長，實現我們的成本和成長協同效應承諾，以及推動成立和分離目標公司。這三個優先事項都與貴公司董事會的宗旨一致，董事會的重點在於實現更大的協同效應，按時完成分拆的所有里程碑，確保預期分拆的資本結構能夠使每家公司都達到其目標信用評級，並推動我們今天向您展示的加速分拆時間表。董事會和管理團隊對我們現有的團隊充滿信心，相信他們能夠完成我們的關鍵優先事項。

Our pathway is clear, and we have our hands on all the value-creating levers.

我們的道路很清晰，我們掌握了所有創造價值的槓桿。

We are creating 3 industry-leading companies, focused and agile organization ready to adapt at the speed of business today and with vast growth potential benefiting our customers, communities, employers -- employees and shareholders alike.

我們正在打造 3 家領先業界的公司，一個專注且靈活的組織，能夠適應當今商業的快速發展，並擁有巨大的成長潛力，這將使我們的客戶、社區、雇主——員工和股東都從中受益。

With that, I'll now turn it to Neal to open the Q&A.

接下來，我會把問答環節交給尼爾。

Thank you, Andrew. With that, let's move on to your question. First, I would like to remind you that our forward-looking statements apply to both our prepared remarks and the following Q&A. Rochelle, would you please provide the Q&A instructions?

謝謝你，安德魯。那麼，我們接下來回答你的問題。首先，我想提醒各位，我們的前瞻性聲明適用於我們準備好的發言稿和接下來的問答環節。Rochelle，請問能提供問答環節的說明嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的大衛‧貝格萊特。

Ed and Andrew, on the synergies, do you believe there is further upside potential on the cost synergies? And any further update or confidence on realizing the growth synergies over the next couple of years?

Ed 和 Andrew，關於綜效，你們認為成本綜效還有進一步提升的空間嗎？對於未來幾年實現成長協同效應，是否有任何進一步的更新或信心？

Yes, this is Ed. On the synergy front, look, I feel really good about where we got here with the extra $300 million. Look, we're going to be still looking over the next 6, 7 months for any other synergies we have. And I'll see where we end up, I don't want to precomment on that. But I will say 2 things: our procurement teams are still working very hard and they're not through everything yet but they did hit the bigger items first, so just to give you a little perspective. And there's an awful lot of work going on with Marc Doyle and his team on the SpecCo side, simply because so many end markets businesses came together with Dow and DuPont. So we're still taking a really hard look there, so that would be opportunities we're still testing as we go down the road. But I will tell you, just for the second part of your question, we've really move more to the growth synergy focus now. Marc, on the SpecCo side, has all the teams now getting together now that we're managed as one business from both the Dow side integrated in with the DuPont side and we're really working through a whole list of great action items there for growth. So I think you're just going to see a lot more opportunities in SpecCo than we simply would've had before when we realigned the whole portfolio. And my gut is, David, by the time we get on the next earnings call, we will be talking a lot more specifics with you about where we see our biggest growth opportunities from putting these businesses together. And of course, we have talked on the Ag side. There's huge amount of opportunities there just because of the different channels to market that we have, and Jim Collins and the teams have already put extensive work in that because those teams have been together for over a year now talking about these type of things. So again, we'll talk more about that next quarter, but that's where the excitement inside the company will now turn to once we lock down, okay, what is the final cost synergy number. Let's really just get focused now on the growth side of that.

是的，這是艾德。在綜效方面，我感覺我們利用額外投入的 3 億美元所取得的成果非常令人滿意。你看，在接下來的六、七個月裡，我們還會繼續尋找其他可能的綜效。我會看看最終結果如何，我不想對此妄加評論。但我還是要說兩點：我們的採購團隊仍在非常努力地工作，雖然他們還沒有完成所有工作，但他們確實首先處理了比較重要的事項，所以只是想讓你們對情況有個大致的了解。由於許多終端市場企業與陶氏和杜邦走到了一起，馬克·多伊爾和他的團隊在 SpecCo 方面開展了大量工作。所以我們仍在認真研究這個問題，這些機會我們仍在不斷嘗試。但是，就你問題的第二部分而言，我可以告訴你，我們現在確實更加重視成長綜效。馬克在 SpecCo 這邊，現在所有團隊都聚在一起，因為我們現在作為一個整體進行管理，陶氏和杜邦兩邊都整合在一起，我們正在努力落實一系列促進成長的重大行動方案。所以我認為，在我們重新調整整個投資組合之後，你將會看到比以前更多的 SpecCo 投資機會。大衛，我的直覺是，到下次財報電話會議上，我們會和你詳細討論一下，我們認為將這些業務整合起來，最大的成長機會在哪裡。當然，我們也談到了農業方面的問題。由於我們擁有不同的市場管道，因此存在著巨大的機會。吉姆·柯林斯和他的團隊已經在這方面投入了大量精力，因為這些團隊已經在一起討論這類事情一年多了。所以，我們下個季度會更多地討論這個問題，但一旦我們確定了最終的成本協同效應數字，公司內部的興奮點就會轉移到這一點上。我們現在應該真正把注意力集中在成長方面。

And next, we'll move on to P.J. Juvekar with Citigroup.

接下來，我們將介紹花旗集團的 P.J. Juvekar。

A question on Ag. You mentioned that -- you mentioned price declines in crop chemicals due to generic pressure. Can you be more specific on that? Which chemicals, then insecticides, herbicides? And then what is the risk that this pricing pressure comes to the U.S. this spring?

關於農業的問題。您曾提過－您曾提到由於仿製藥壓力，農業化學品價格下降的情況。能說得更具體些嗎？哪些化學品？例如殺蟲劑、除草劑？那麼，今年春天這種價格壓力蔓延到美國的風險有多大？

P.J., it's Jim. Yes, specifically, in the fourth quarter, we mentioned some price pressure, primarily generic and that's really coming out of Latin America and mostly aimed at the fungicide portfolio. Some of the picoxy derivatives that we sell. We sell both a straight picoxy and several mixtures in that marketplace and some of those straight molecules came under a little bit of stress. So when I think about pricing pressure and some leakage, as you suggested, into North America, we really are not seeing as much on the chemistry side as we're likely to feel in the seed side due to some pretty aggressive competitive pressure out there. And just a really tough market for growers with commodity prices and a trending where they are, we're expecting, as Howard said in his comments, that it's going to be a tough go here as we start out the year.

P.J.，我是吉姆。是的，具體來說，在第四季度，我們提到了一些價格壓力，主要是仿製藥的價格壓力，這主要來自拉丁美洲，而且主要針對殺菌劑產品組合。我們銷售的部分吡啶氧基衍生物。我們在市場上銷售純吡啶甲酸及其幾種混合物，其中一些純分子受到了一些壓力。所以，當我考慮到價格壓力以及正如您所建議的，一些洩漏到北美的情況時，由於市場競爭壓力相當激烈，我們在化學方面並沒有像在種子方面那樣感受到那麼多壓力。對於種植者來說，由於大宗商品價格及其目前的趨勢，市場情況非常嚴峻。正如霍華德在評論中所說，我們預計今年年初將會非常艱難。

And next, we'll hear from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根大通的傑夫·澤考斯卡斯的演講。

I have a 2-part question. In your guidance, you say that the cost synergies year-over-year are about $1 billion benefit. And so if you knocked out about $250 million in 2017, that's about $1.25 billion. So that means you've got $2 billion more to go in order to get to your target. Why is the number for '18 so small relative to the total? The second question is your cash flow from operations was $4.2 billion, but last year, Dow and DuPont each combined generated $6.3 billion in cash flow. So what was the amount of your nonrecurring charges that were cash in the fourth quarter so we can add them back to the $4.2 billion?

我有一個包含兩個部分的問題。您在指導方針中提到，成本綜效每年可帶來約 10 億美元的收益。所以，如果你在 2017 年賺了大約 2.5 億美元，那就是大約 12.5 億美元。這意味著你還需要籌集20億美元才能達到目標。為什麼 2018 年的數字相對於總數來說這麼小？第二個問題是，你們的營運活動現金流為 42 億美元，但去年陶氏和杜邦兩家公司合計產生了 63 億美元的現金流。那麼，你們第四季以現金形式支付的非經常性費用是多少？這樣我們就可以將它們加回 42 億美元。

Yes, let me hit the cost synergy and maybe turn to Howard on the cash piece. Remember, there's run rate synergies and then synergies captured within the period. So we're on a very significant ramp. As we said, we did over $200 million that we got in the quarter, but we actually exited at a $800 million run rate. Now remember, when we track all our synergies is when we accomplish the task and it's done. And then what will happen, Jeff, is some of these take 6, 7, 8 months to kick in. Again, I'll just give you 2 examples, I think, just for easy understanding, but I can give you 20 of them. We're doing a lot of rooftop consolidation and probably even more now in SpecCo than we were planning because of everything coming together and by the time we got out of leases or maybe sell one of the properties, consolidating either a Dow of DuPont location, you're kind of some of these projects -- and by the way, we're tracking them how long they're going to take. They take some months. And by the way, another easy one, and it happens to be a fairly decent number for us, is on the contract manufacturing side, we're making a lot of moves on the contract manufacturing side, but we have contracts in place that could be another 4, 5, 6 months before it ends with a contractor and we make our move. So again, we're tracking every one of them in detail. But that's why you'll see as we exit even this next calendar year '18, you'll see a very high run rate ramp at the end of '18. But of course, you won't see that same number actually hit and fall within the year. And so we'll give you both numbers both times, but you will see by the time we get to '19, most of this is kicking in and we'll be on the tail end of it. Literally, as I said, 75% of the project's already launched, so we're really in the thick of it right now and you just got to give it some months in many of these cases to actually kick into place. And don't forget, one of the other big delays, and we've already taken a bunch of these actions, is on the Ag side also where it takes a planting season to actually realize the savings. So a lot of Jim Collins' bigger moves like that seed production consolidation from third parties internally to an old heritage DuPont production facility, you won't see until you get into the next year. But again, we'll keep you posted on what actions we take and then try to give you a lot of clarity around in period versus run rate.

是的，讓我先解決成本綜效的問題，然後或許可以和霍華德談談現金方面的問題。記住，有運行速率協同效應，也有在特定時期內實現的協同效應。所以，我們正處於一個非常重要的發展階段。正如我們所說，我們本季獲得了超過 2 億美元的收入，但實際上我們最終的年化收入達到了 8 億美元。記住，當我們追蹤到所有協同效應時，我們就完成了任務，任務就完成了。傑夫，接下來會發生的情況是，其中一些藥物需要 6、7、8 個月才能發揮作用。我再舉兩個例子，方便理解，但我可以舉出20個例子。我們正在進行大量的屋頂整合，而且由於各種因素的匯合，SpecCo 的整合量可能比我們原計劃的還要多。等到我們到期租約到期或出售其中一處房產時，整合陶氏化學或杜邦的辦公地點，這些項目就差不多完成了——順便說一句，我們正在跟踪這些項目需要多長時間才能完成。需要幾個月的時間。順便說一句，還有一件很簡單的事，而且對我們來說，這恰好是一個相當不錯的數字，那就是在合約製造方面，我們在合約製造方面做了很多工作，但我們現有的合約可能還需要 4、5、6 個月才能到期，之後我們才能採取行動。所以，我們正在詳細追蹤每一個細節。但也因為如此，你會看到，即使到了下一個日曆年 2018 年末，你的運行率也會非常高。當然，你不會看到同樣的數字在一年內真正達到並下降。因此，我們會兩次都給出這兩個數字，但到 2019 年，你會發現大部分因素都開始起作用，而我們將處於尾聲。正如我所說，該專案已經完成了 75%，所以我們現在正處於關鍵階段，在許多情況下，你只需給它幾個月的時間才能真正發揮作用。別忘了，另一個重大延誤因素（我們已經採取了很多措施）也出現在農業​​方面，因為需要一個播種季節才能真正實現節省。所以，吉姆·柯林斯的一些重大舉措，例如將種子生產從第三方整合到杜邦公司內部的一家老牌生產設施，要到明年才能看到。但是，我們會隨時向您通報我們採取的行動，並努力讓您更清楚地了解週期與運行率之間的關係。

Jeff, this is Howard. On the cash from ops, good question, and you're right to target the areas that you did. You know, because of the merger, we don't have any pro forma statements on cash flow. But when you do an apples-to-apples look, our cash from ops is actually up almost $1.5 billion versus the same quarter a year ago when you strip out some of those onetime items. So nearly a 30% increase in cash from ops on an apples-to-apples basis versus same quarter a year ago.

傑夫，我是霍華德。關於營運現金流的問題，問得好，你選擇重點關注的領域是正確的。你知道，由於合併，我們沒有任何現金流量的預測報表。但如果進行公平的比較，在剔一些一次性項目後，我們的營運現金流實際上比去年同期增加了近 15 億美元。因此，與去年同期相比，營運現金流按同等條件增加了近 30%。

And next, we move on to Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們來聽聽摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯怎麼說。

Ed, I'm just wondering if the change in U.S. tax rates has impacted your calculus at all in terms of the strategic opportunities that might be available at Specialty co and I guess what I mean by that is obviously one scenario is simply to wait and see at what multiple Specialty co will trade at in late '19 post the 2 spins. But given elevated pure equity multiples today and now with lower tax rates, just kind of wondering is M&A maybe more appealing in terms of crystallizing multiples today versus trying to do Reverse Morris Trust or other more tax-efficient structures that would likely take more time and therefore encounter risks of where equity market multiples might evolve to?

Ed，我只是想知道美國稅率的變化是否對你在Specialty公司可能獲得的策略機會的考量產生了任何影響。我的意思是，顯然，一種方案是等待並觀察Specialty公司在2019年底兩次分拆後，其股價會達到多少倍。但鑑於目前純股權倍數較高，且稅率較低，我只是想知道，就目前而言，併購是否比嘗試反向莫里斯信託或其他更具稅收效率的結構（這些結構可能需要更多時間，因此會面臨股權市場倍數可能演變的風險）更具吸引力，因為這樣更容易實現既定的倍數？

Wow, that's a loaded question. By the way, just in general, on tax reform, I mean, you saw the benefit we're getting from that, 1 to 2 points in the factory. Actually if we were staying together as DowDuPont it would even be a bigger percent, probably double that just for background. But I'd just mention a couple of points so we're clear on this. We do have decent amount of overseas cash between the merged company. I think it's $12.2 billion out of our $13.5 billion literally. And -- but what we're obviously going through right now is now all the beginning -- moving all the liabilities around on and see how we get to the ratings that we want with the rating agencies for the 3 businesses. So our teams right now are in a little different mode than a typical company because we're really now looking at what does each of the 3 companies need to maintain in overseas cash, especially based on the Spec co realignment of the portfolio. So what do we actually need to leave overseas to run our international operations and where? And then what do we have that we want to bring back, et cetera, vis-à-vis based on the ratings that we want. And also that whole exercise is going on right now with our treasury and finance teams throughout the company. But to your point on SpecCo, look, SpecCo's always had a lot of functionality to it and what we can do to create shareholder value. One of the things I love about it just the way it's configured now I love it because I think it comps extremely well against the best peer companies in that sector, and I don't mind saying their names on the phone, Honeywell and 3M. Our EBITDA margins by the end of this year will be right on top of the best of those two. Our CapEx spend is about 4% to 5% of sales, which is right on top of best-in-class peer, which should allude to a great ROIC for the business done right. Our R&D is about in line with where those best peer companies are. So just the way the portfolio was configured now, I think we sit really pretty as people start to understand it more the power of what we put together, I think it should be afforded a multiple in the range of those companies. Having said that, we will always look at the best shareholder creation steps we can take. And these are 4 pretty neat companies within SpecCo and we will certainly look at that as we go down the road. Don't expect anything for us to be doing stuff now. We're literally just integrating of people together in businesses and we want to get that right and be very comfortable that we're positioned then we'll look at all our options.

哇，這個問題問得好棘手。順便說一句，總的來說，關於稅收改革，我的意思是，你們看到了我們從中獲得的益處，工廠的生產力提高了 1 到 2 個百分點。實際上，如果我們仍然以陶氏杜邦的名義在一起，這個比例還會更高，可能翻一番，這只是個背景資訊。但我只想提幾點，以便我們對此達成共識。合併後的公司確實擁有相當數量的海外現金。我認為，在我們135億美元的預算中，實際上只有122億美元。但現在我們顯然正在經歷的這一切只是個開始——轉移所有負債，看看我們如何讓這三家企業獲得評級機構想要的評級。所以，我們團隊目前的工作模式與一般公司略有不同，因為我們現在真正關注的是這三家公司各自需要維持多少海外現金，特別是基於 Spec 公司對投資組合的重新調整。那麼，為了開展國際業務，我們究竟需要在海外留下哪些資產，以及這些資產該放在哪裡？然後，根據我們想要的評分，我們有哪些東西想要重新推出等等。目前，我們公司各財務團隊都在積極進行這項工作。但說到你提到的投機公司，你看，投機公司一直有很多功能，我們可以利用這些功能來創造股東價值。我喜歡它現在的配置方式，因為我認為它在同行業中與最好的同行公司相比表現非常出色，我不介意在電話中提到他們的名字，霍尼韋爾和3M。到今年年底，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將正好高於這兩家公司中最好的那一家。我們的資本支出約佔銷售額的 4% 至 5%，這正好高於同類最佳企業，這意味著如果業務運作得當，投資回報率將非常高。我們的研發水準與業界頂尖公司基本持平。所以就目前的投資組合配置而言，我認為隨著人們開始更多地了解我們所建立的資產組合的力量，我們的處境會非常有利，我認為它應該獲得與這些公司估值倍數相當的回報。話雖如此，我們始終會尋求最佳的股東創造途徑。SpecCo旗下有這四家非常不錯的公司，我們以後一定會好好研究它們。不要指望我們現在會做任何事。我們現在所做的，實際上就是將人們整合到企業中，我們希望把這件事做好，並且對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意，然後我們才會考慮所有選擇。

And next, we move onto Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

接下來，我們來聽聽 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed 的介紹。

It's a bit of an interesting year obviously on the ethylene, polyethylene side of things. Obviously, as I see it, a couple of moving parts. You obviously have the U.S. capacity coming online, which should be a headwind. But on the other side, a lot of chatter around China, pollution-related curves and now all the latest and greatest news about China sort of banning the import of solid plastic waste. So just wanted to sort of get a sense of how you are thinking about the nearer-term 2018 side of things within the global ethylene, polyethylene market.

顯然，就乙烯和聚乙烯而言，今年是個有點意思的年份。顯然，在我看來，這其中包含幾個活動部件。顯然，美國即將投入營運的產能將構成不利因素。但另一方面，關於中國的討論很多，污染相關的曲線，以及現在所有關於中國禁止進口固體塑膠垃圾的最新消息。所以，我只是想了解一下您對2018年全球乙烯、聚乙烯市場近期發展趨勢的看法。

Hassan, this is Jim. Sorry about the voice. Yes, I think the outlook for growth in PE is still solid, about 3.7% growth rate as we look forward. China obviously has continued to grow. Actually, the emerging markets continue to grow. So while new polyethylene capacity has come on in the U.S, not enough has come on really to keep up with the market growth rate. And if you look at what's happening right now, actually ethylene is longer than polyethylene in the Gulf Coast. We don't have enough plants right now in the Gulf Coast to convert it all. So I think you're going to see things are going to be a lot more balanced in 2018 and 2019 than people anticipate. The recycling bans are having some impacts in some countries. I probably hear more noise about that in Europe where places like Germany have no place to move material and it's backing up to both PET and polyethylene. And of course, there's no place to incinerate in Europe, the incinerators are all full. But all that said, I'm not sure that has a very big effect on the virgin PE growth rate. Most of that recycling is going to move to another country. Some of it's moved into Southeast Asia right now. Your point on China, though, in terms of carbon and emission is very true. For several years, their emissions have gone down from burning less coal. Last year, they rose. There are a lot of concerns about that. They're seeing a lot of pressures being put on. They need to sustain negative coal burning rates like negative 1% per year to actually have an impact on pollution. And the way you see that is the big pull that's coming on LNG into China. They're going to have to increase LNG imports something like at the rate of 17% to 19% per year into China to keep the pressure on coal and to keep the pollution down. Right now MTO in China is out of the money by about $150 bucks a ton. Those operating rates are low. So all these dynamics, I think, are very favorable for us as we look forward with this new capacity coming on in the U.S. Gulf and 2 more furnaces for Texas-9 and a couple of new plans, one in Europe and one in the U.S. Gulf Coast in the next couple of years.

哈桑，這位是吉姆。抱歉聲音有點怪。是的，我認為私募股權的成長前景依然穩健，預計未來成長率約為3.7%。中國顯然仍在持續成長。事實上，新興市場仍在持續成長。因此，雖然美國新增了聚乙烯產能，但新增產能不足以跟上市場成長速度。如果你看看現在的情況，實際上在墨西哥灣沿岸，乙烯的鍊長比聚乙烯的鍊長還要長。目前墨西哥灣沿岸的工廠數量不足以全部轉換。所以我認為，2018 年和 2019 年的情況會比人們預期的要平衡得多。一些國家的回收禁令已經產生了一定的影響。我可能在歐洲聽到更多關於這方面的抱怨，像德國這樣的地方沒有地方運輸材料，導致PET和聚乙烯的廢料堆積如山。當然，歐洲也沒有地方可以焚燒，焚燒爐都滿了。但即便如此，我也不確定這會對原生本益比成長率產生多大影響。大部分回收物將轉移到其他國家。目前部分貨物已轉移到東南亞。不過，你關於中國碳排放問題的觀點非常正確。多年來，由於煤炭燃燒量減少，他們的排放量有所下降。去年，它們的價格上漲了。對此有很多擔憂。他們面臨著很大的壓力。他們需要維持負燃煤率，例如每年負 1%，才能真正對污染產生影響。而這體現在中國對液化天然氣的龐大需求。為了對煤炭產業施加壓力並減少污染，他們將不得不以每年 17% 至 19% 的速度向中國進口液化天然氣。目前中國的按量生產模式每噸虧損約 150 美元。這些運營率很低。我認為，所有這些動態都對我們非常有利，因為我們展望未來，美國墨西哥灣沿岸將新增產能，德克薩斯9號煉油廠還將新增2座熔爐，未來幾年還將在歐洲和美國墨西哥灣沿岸分別啟動兩個新項目。

And I'll just add, Jim, Middle East, we've said this many times that the supply side is hampered there with lack of wet gas. And so many of the Middle East producers including our friends at Aramco are now looking at ways to get liquid into the ethylene mix, which means a hell of a lot of by-products and you're going to have to move a whole lot of other type of materials. So the CapEx side of that as well as the multiple products will slow down supply from the Middle East. So I think our Sadara asset is well timed, the last based on rich ethane and I think that adds to the point on the supply side. So we've always said the cycle looks more like ridge and we see nothing that's going to stop that for this foreseeable year.

我還要補充一點，吉姆，中東地區，我們已經多次說過，那裡的供應方面受到濕氣短缺的阻礙。因此，包括我們在沙特阿美的朋友在內的許多中東生產商現在都在尋找將液體添加到乙烯混合物中的方法，這意味著會產生大量的副產品，而且你將不得不轉移大量的其他類型的材料。因此，資本支出以及多種產品都會減緩來自中東的供應。所以我認為我們的 Sadara 資產時機把握得很好，最後一個資產富含乙烷，我認為這進一步鞏固了供應的優勢。所以我們一直說，這個週期看起來更像是山脊，而且在可預見的一年內，我們認為沒有任何事情會阻止這種情況發生。

And next, we move to John Roberts with UBS.

接下來，我們來聽聽瑞銀集團的約翰羅伯茲怎麼說。

I think the guidance for the fourth quarter for Performance Materials and Industrial Intermediates EBITDA growth was 10% to 15%, in that range. You blew through your guidance. Maybe you could give us just a rough bridge of the guidance versus the results. Where was the upside versus what you were expecting?

我認為第四季高性能材料和工業中間體 EBITDA 成長的預期是 10% 到 15%，就在這個範圍內。你完全無視了指導原則。或許您可以給我們大致概述一下指導意見與實際結果之間的關係。與你的預期相比，實際收益在哪裡？

Yes, John. So revenue was up 15% versus same quarter last year and all businesses and all geos were up. Price was up 10%, volume was up 4%. In Consumer Solutions, price was up 9% and it was up revenue 14%. Even monomers and coatings was up on price by 10% and volume up 4% and that was led by North America and Asia Pacific and the construction outlook there continues to be good. Look, we had downstream demand across all the silicones markets and applications. I think that's true as well for Marc's businesses. The acrylic operating rates have been better. MMA is still tight and I expect it to be tight through the first half. VAM, vinyl acetate monomer, looks like it's going to be tight through 2020. The acrylic operating rates are much better. So I think all of that's been very constructive and we've seen everything moving in the right direction, which I think was the beat.

是的，約翰。因此，與去年同期相比，收入成長了 15%，所有業務和所有地區都實現了成長。價格上漲10%，銷量上漲4%。在消費者解決方案領域，價格上漲了 9%，收入上漲了 14%。單體和塗料的價格上漲了 10%，銷量上漲了 4%，這主要得益於北美和亞太地區的成長，而這些地區的建築前景依然良好。你看，我們在所有矽膠市場和應用領域都有下游需求。我認為這對馬克的生意也是如此。亞克力材料的運作效率有所提升。MMA比賽仍然很膠著，我預計上半場也會很膠合。VAM（醋酸乙烯單體）的供應在 2020 年看來會很緊張。亞克力材料的運作效率要好得多。所以我覺得這一切都非常有建設性，我們看到一切都在朝著正確的方向發展，我認為這才是關鍵。

And next, we'll hear from Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將聽聽瑞士信貸的克里斯多福·帕金森的發言。

So you're already actually in a pretty solid fashion across Specialty co in regards to synergies as well as taking some portfolio actions on some lower-return businesses, albeit some smaller ones. But last quarter, you also discussed what you referred to as your playbook to deliver the $1 billion in revenue synergies in which you mentioned Health & Nutrition as well as even the acquisition of FMC. Can you just give us a little more color on both of these fronts and as well as what your ultimate long-term goals are?

所以，就協同效應而言，您在 Specialty 公司已經處於相當穩固的階段，並且對一些回報率較低的業務（儘管規模較小）採取了一些投資組合行動。但上個季度，您也討論了您所謂的實現 10 億美元收入協同效應的策略，其中您提到了健康與營養業務，甚至還提到了收購 FMC。您能否就這兩個面向再詳細介紹一下，以及您的最終長期目標是什麼？

Let me hit the first part on the portfolio and Marc will talk about some of the growth initiatives because he's really been digging into it with this team. We are, by the way, we've already done our full analysis on the portfolio and there clearly are part of the portfolio like you would expect from a business as diverse like that, that we would want to exit and monetize the assets. And the ballpark on that, it would be somewhere between 5% and 10% of the portfolio are things we would take a look at. And they just felt that our strategic focus -- and by the way, our EBITDA margins will actually go up because they're on the lower end of our averages, in a couple of cases, very significantly. So that cleanup will be important. We'll try to accomplish some of that this year. We've got it gated a little bit by the stress on our financial teams doing the spins, but we know kind of what we want to do from that end. And one thing we've, I think, talked about pretty extensively to keep in mind, there's clearly some of that we want to do in the Nutrition & Health side because we've got 4, 5 really big growth areas there, but we have a few that are a little more on the commoditized side that we want to clean up. So that'd be one specific area we want to get to. But Marc, why don't you talk about some of the growth things we're working on?

讓我先介紹一下投資組合的第一部分，然後馬克會談談一些成長計劃，因為他和這個團隊一直在深入研究這些計劃。順便說一句，我們已經對投資組合進行了全面分析，很明顯，正如你所預期的那樣，對於一家如此多元化的企業來說，投資組合中的一部分資產是我們希望退出並實現資產變現的。大致來說，我們會考慮將投資組合的 5% 到 10% 用於此類投資。他們只是覺得我們的策略重點——順便說一句，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率實際上會上升，因為它們處於我們平均水平的較低水平，在某些情況下，上升幅度非常大。所以清理工作非常重要。我們今年會努力實現其中的一些目標。由於財務團隊在進行財務報表調整時面臨壓力，我們在這方面受到了一些限制，但我們大致知道我們想從這個角度做什麼。有一點我認為我們已經討論得相當透徹，需要牢記在心：我們顯然想在營養與健康方面做一些事情，因為我們在那裡有 4、5 個真正的大增長領域，但我們也有一些商品化程度較高的領域需要清理。所以這是我們想要重點關注的領域。馬克，為什麼不談談我們正在努力實現成長的一些事情呢？

Yes, thanks, Ed, and thanks, Chris, for the question. Just focusing on N&B as the starting point and -- because as you referenced that, the general theme here is focusing on the segments that we think have really attractive long-term growth potential and particularly these combinations that we put together in Specialty co. And so as an example, within N&B, the traditional N&H business has now created a pharmaceutical excipients business that's really unrivaled, the combination of the FMC business and that's based in the Dow business in that space. And we did complete the integration of that business together. It's going to launch now. We're out in the market talking to channel partners and finding a lot of opportunities to grow faster because we've just got a really unrivaled portfolio now of products in that space and it's a pretty attractive long-term growth space. And then I'd also mention, of course, the doubling down on the growth investment in some of the other real horses like the probiotics business, which has been growing double digits now for several years and is really reaching an appreciable scale. And so just maybe one final comment, you asked about the playbook for innovation. It's really around portfolio management shifting the focus to these higher-growth segments. It's about ensuring that we're leveraging best practices across all of these specialty businesses. And it's about putting in place the right culture of focus on innovation, customers and market knowledge. So these things are the levers that will play out over the next couple of years to pick up the growth rate of the whole division.

是的，謝謝艾德，也謝謝克里斯的提問。以 N&B 為起點，正如您所提到的，這裡的總體主題是專注於我們認為具有真正有吸引力的長期增長潛力的細分市場，特別是我們在 Specialty co. 中組合在一起的這些細分市場。例如，在 N&B 內部，傳統的 N&H 業務現在已經創建了一個真正無與倫比的藥用輔料業務，這是 FMC 業務與陶氏在該領域的業務相結合的結果。我們確實完成了該業務的整合。現在就要發布了。我們正在市場上與通路合作夥伴洽談，並發現了許多更快成長的機會，因為我們現在在這個領域擁有真正無與倫比的產品組合，而且這是一個非常有吸引力的長期成長領域。當然，我還要提一下，我們加大了對其他一些真正有發展潛力的領域的投資，例如益生菌業務，該業務已經連續幾年保持兩位數的增長，並且正在達到相當可觀的規模。最後再補充一點，您問了創新策略。實際上，關鍵在於投資組合管理，將重點轉移到這些高成長領域。關鍵在於確保我們在所有這些專業業務中都能運用最佳實務。關鍵在於建立一種以創新、客戶和市場知識為中心的正確文化。因此，這些因素將在未來幾年內發揮作用，提高整個部門的成長率。

And next, we move on to Frank Mitsch with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們來聽聽富國證券的弗蘭克‧米奇的介紹。

Howard, as I think about your share buyback program, you guys said $4 billion was kind of the first tranche that you wanted to get out there. You did $1 billion in buybacks in Q4. Your guidance for fiscal '18 -- or for calendar '18 is 5 million shares lower than for first quarter '18, which seems kind of light. Can you please enlighten me on what your strategy is there? And might we see it upsized, et cetera? What's the pace we should be thinking about?

霍華德，當我想到你們的股票回購計畫時，你們說過 40 億美元是你們想要推出的第一批資金。你們第四季進行了10億美元的股票回購。您對 2018 財年（或 2018 日曆年）的業績預期比 2018 年第一季減少了 500 萬股，這似乎有點低。請問您能否詳細解釋一下您的策略？我們是否會看到它被放大等等？我們應該考慮以怎樣的速度前進？

Frank, I'm not sure I can enlighten you, but I will answer your question. How are you doing? What I would say is we did $1 billion in the fourth quarter. As we think about Q1, I would say you should think about that same rate for the first quarter, is another $1 billion. Of course, we're going to continue to be opportunistic as we were in the fourth quarter. Remember that -- and Ed made a comment to an earlier question. I mean, we're working on the capital structure of all 3 companies and that's the work that we have to do through the balance of this year. Until we get each of the new divisions rated, we don't have broad access to the debt capital markets. So we want to maintain financial flexibility and I would say prudent levels of liquidity. But with that said, we're going to continue to be opportunistic. And don't forget, in terms of the guidance, you've got a time -- a weighted average effect, right, because you're not buying in the first month of every quarter. So you're basically doing it in a lag basis because of when we report earnings and the open window versus the quiet period.

法蘭克，我不確定我能否給你解答，但我會回答你的問題。你好嗎？我想說的是，我們第四季實現了10億美元的營收。當我們展望第一季時，我認為你們應該考慮第一季也保持同樣的成長速度，那就是再增加10億美元。當然，我們會像第四季一樣繼續抓住機會。記住這一點——埃德曾對之前的一個問題發表過評論。我的意思是，我們正在研究這三家公司的資本結構，這是我們今年剩餘時間必須完成的工作。在我們對每個新部門進行評級之前，我們無法廣泛進入債務資本市場。所以我們希望保持財務靈活性，我認為還需要保持審慎的流動性水準。但即便如此，我們仍將繼續把握機會。別忘了，就指導而言，你有一個時間——加權平均效應，對吧，因為你不會在每個季度的第一個月都購買。所以，由於我們發布財報的時間以及開放窗口期與靜默期之間的差異，你基本上是以滯後的方式進行操作的。

And next, we move on to Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

接下來，我們來聽聽美國銀行的史蒂夫‧伯恩怎麼說。

Given your comment about challenging fundamentals in Ag, do you expect more traction in your financing program to those growers that buy both seed and chemicals giving you a much broader platform in those products now? And any update on the use of the Mycogen brand throughout that retail channel? Are you planning to expand that? And then just, lastly, any update on Chinese import approval on Enlist soy, when do you think you might be able to launch that?

鑑於您提到農業基本面面臨挑戰，您是否預期您的融資計劃能夠吸引更多同時購買種子和化肥的種植戶，從而使您在這些產品領域擁有更廣泛的平台？關於Mycogen品牌在該零售通路的使用情況，有任何最新進展嗎？你們有計劃擴大規模嗎？最後，關於Enlist大豆的中國進口審批，有什麼最新進展嗎？您認為大概什麼時候可以上市？

Great. Steve, thanks for the questions. On your first part, you're right around our programs and our offering. It's a little bit early in the North America seasons to kind of pinpoint just what the uptake might look like. Our TruChoice program that we have out there, I think, is one of the most competitive in the industry and it does nice job of rewarding loyalty and an opportunity for our broad set of customers across the North American continent to participate appropriately so we're excited about that. Your third question was around Enlist soy, and as we talked about before, we feel like we're the next on in the queue for solutions around that with Chinese regulators. We have complied and supplied all of the documentation and information that's required and have had some really good dialogue. Enlist soy, along with Qrome, represent a pretty substantial opportunity for us in the seed business for growth for the future, so we're quite interested in getting those approved and we're monitoring that very, very carefully. Your second question was around the Mycogen brand. And Mycogen brand has a spot -- a nice opportunity in the retail and distribution marketplace. And as I've said before, you and I have talked about this, this gives us a unique opportunity to penetrate more into that space by putting more and better genetics in those bags, upping our game there and leveraging kind of a multi-brand, multichannel now approach. So yes, we're excited about the Mycogen brand. And stay tuned. As you see us move forward through the latter part of 2018 and into 2019, we'll be refining that multichannel, multi-brand strategy not only in North America, but you'll see additional brands in Europe and in Latin America to kind of round out that offering.

偉大的。史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。關於你提到的第一部分，你完全符合我們的專案和產品要求。現在北美賽區還處於賽季初期，要準確預測市場接受度還為時過早。我認為，我們推出的 TruChoice 計劃是業內最具競爭力的計劃之一，它在獎勵忠誠度方面做得很好，並為我們在北美大陸的廣大客戶提供了適當的參與機會，因此我們對此感到非常興奮。您的第三個問題與 Enlist 大豆有關，正如我們之前討論過的，我們感覺我們是下一個向中國監管機構尋求解決方案的公司。我們已經遵守規定，提供了所有必需的文件和訊息，並且進行了非常好的對話。Enlist 大豆和 Qrome 代表我們在種子業務方面未來發展的一個相當大的機會，所以我們非常希望它們能夠獲得批准，並且我們正在非常非常仔細地監控這一情況。你的第二個問題是關於Mycogen這個品牌的。Mycogen品牌在零售和分銷市場佔有一席之地，這是一個不錯的機會。正如我之前所說，你我都討論過這個問題，這給我們提供了一個獨特的機會，讓我們能夠透過在這些產品中加入更多更好的基因，提升我們在該領域的競爭力，並利用多品牌、多渠道的策略，從而更深入地滲透到這個領域。是的，我們對 Mycogen 品牌感到非常興奮。敬請期待。隨著我們進入 2018 年下半年和 2019 年，我們將不斷完善多通路、多品牌策略，不僅在北美，而且在歐洲和拉丁美洲，您還會看到更多品牌，以完善我們的產品和服務。

Let me just add on the Ag piece because you mentioned a tough Ag market. Just to put this in perspective. Last year, we grew the revenue line low single digits and we had double-digit earnings growth in the Ag business between both the Dow and the DuPont portfolio. We are forecasting this year that we're going to have mid-single-digit revenue growth and high teens earnings growth, which is certainly doesn't make me feel bad. And by the way, it's driven by 2 core factors. There's more than this, but if you look at it high level, a lot of our synergies kick in, in the second half of the year in Ag, so that's something within our own control, and Jim has a lot of product launches that are kicking in that we expect for the second half of the year and those 2 really drive results for us. So yes, we got choppy quarter-to-quarter because of the way things shift in the Ag business. But when you look at the whole year picture and the whole planting season, we think we're teeing up for a nice year. Yes, in a tough market, it's probably going to be flat, but we're feeling good about our positioning.

我再補充一點關於農業方面的內容，因為你提到了農業市場情況嚴峻。只是為了說明一下情況。去年，我們的營收實現了低個位數成長，而陶氏和杜邦兩大農業業務的獲利實現了兩位數成長。我們預測今年的營收成長率將達到個位數中段，獲利成長率將達到兩位數以上，當然不會讓我感到沮喪。順便說一句，這主要受兩個核心因素驅動。不僅如此，但從宏觀角度來看，我們在農業領域的許多協同效應將在下半年發揮作用，這是我們自己可以控制的因素。此外，Jim 也有很多產品即將上市，我們預計這些產品將在下半年上市，這兩方面確實能為我們帶來業績成長。是的，由於農業產業的情況變化，我們的季度業績出現了波動。但從全年情況和整個播種季節來看，我們認為今年將會是個好年。是的，在市場低迷的情況下，股價可能會持平，但我們對自身的市場定位感到滿意。

And we'll move on to Peter Butler with (inaudible) Research.

接下來我們將介紹 Peter Butler 的研究（聽不清楚）。

I just have one question relating to your balance sheet. If you're successful in consummating all the deals that you might be contemplating now, what might your balance sheet look like just before you start the spin-offs with Material?

我只有一個關於貴公司資產負債表的問題。如果你成功完成了所有你現在可能正在考慮的交易，那麼在你開始從 Material 進行分拆之前，你的資產負債表會是什麼樣子？

So Peter, this is Howard. I'll take a stab at the question. I mean, what we're working on now is really setting up these 3 separate publicly traded companies all for growth, all with more focus and the ability to move faster. It's pretty clear the target credit metrics and credit profiles that we're working on, the Materials Science should look like Dow in the fourth quarter of '15, the Ag company should look like DuPont in the fourth quarter of '15, and we set investment grade for the Specialty division. So we're setting up pretty strong investment grade companies that'll all be focused on growth. And obviously, I think Ed mentioned it in his prepared remarks, but we're working on the assets and liabilities and the pension and the cash and the debt. And so that's the work that we have in front of us, and you'll be hearing more. As the time line slide in the deck shows, you'll be hearing more as we get through the next several quarters through the end of 2018.

彼得，這位是霍華德。我來試著回答這個問題。我的意思是，我們現在正在努力的是真正為這三家獨立的上市公司打造一個成長平台，讓它們更專注，並擁有更快的發展能力。很明顯，我們正在努力實現的目標信用指標和信用狀況是：材料科學部門的信用狀況應該像 2015 年第四季度的陶氏化學，農業部門的信用狀況應該像 2015 年第四季度的杜邦公司，並且我們為特種化學品部門設定了投資級。所以我們正在打造一些實力雄厚、具有投資等級的公司，這些公司都將專注於成長。顯然，我認為艾德在他的準備好的演講稿中提到了這一點，我們正在處理資產和負債、退休金、現金和債務問題。這就是我們擺在我們面前的工作，你們還會聽到更多消息。正如簡報中的時間軸幻燈片所示，在接下來的幾個季度裡，直到 2018 年底，您將聽到更多相關消息。

I guess, the punchline is we're highly confident that we're going to get the credit ratings we want because we already know, in aggregate what we have and we're going to portion it to get to where we need to be. So it's not a worry. We've got a lot of hard lifting to do to get it all in the right places.

我想，關鍵在於我們非常有信心能夠獲得我們想要的信用評級，因為我們已經知道我們整體上擁有什麼，並且我們將合理分配這些資源以達到我們需要的目標。所以不用擔心。我們還有很多艱苦的工作要做，才能把所有東西都放到正確的位置。

And to say something, Ed, you said in your script, we're in control of the cost synergies. We have the playbook. They are detailed. We know when they will hit. We know the lag lead on Ag. We know that, that number is in our imminent future, and now we're getting the growth synergy conversation, to earlier question, deeply rooted in all 3 divisions. So when you look at the go-forward 12 months in front of us here before we get to the spin, the ability to heavy-lift on cost synergies and get the growth synergy platform will give us 3 robust balance sheets to enable us to go do more work on growth or share buyback or both most likely.

艾德，我想說的是，你在劇本裡說過，我們可以控製成本協同效應。我們有應對方案。它們很詳細。我們知道它們何時會來襲。我們知道農業的滯後領先。我們知道，這個數字在不久的將來就會實現，現在我們正在討論成長協同效應，這個問題，之前提出的問題，已經深深植根於所有三個部門。因此，展望未來 12 個月，在我們進行分拆之前，我們有能力大力推進成本協同效應並獲得成長協同效應平台，這將使我們擁有 3 個穩健的資產負債表，使我們能夠在成長或股票回購方面投入更多精力，或者很可能兩者兼而有之。

And next, we move to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

接下來，我們連線 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Just a question on the guidance here. I just wanted to confirm, did you say that Q1 EBITDA would be up 13% year-over-year ex some of the onetime items? And Q1 is usually your strongest EBITDA quarter. Is that going to be the case in 2018 given typical Ag segment seasonality? Or do you expect something different in 2018 and why?

關於這裡的指導意見，我有個問題。我只是想確認一下，您剛才說的是第一季 EBITDA 年成長 13%（不包括一些一次性項目）嗎？通常來說，第一季是 EBITDA 最高的季度。考慮到農業領域的典型季節性，2018年是否也會如此？或者您認為2018年會有所不同？為什麼？

Well, let me just hit one point. We're going to have a little bit of a different flow this year because we have such significant cost synergies kicking in, which obviously drops right to our EBITDA line. So that's a little different than just running our normal seasonality in the business. So just keep that in perspective, but let me turn it over to Howard.

好吧，我只提一點。今年我們的財務狀況會有些不同，因為成本綜效非常顯著，這顯然會直接影響我們的 EBITDA。所以這和我們正常的季節性經營模式略有不同。所以請記住這一點，現在讓我把麥克風交給霍華德。

Yes, I would just say that operating EBITDA and what you see on the modeling side ex Ag, up 13%. When you include Ag because of the seasonal shift that Jim's talked about, Ed's talked about between Q1 and Q2, it's obviously lower than that. But $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion is the guidance we're giving for operating EBITDA for Q1 for the company.

是的，我只想說，營運 EBITDA 和您在模型方面看到的（不包括農業）增加了 13%。如果把吉姆和艾德提到的第一季和第二季之間的季節性變化（即農業）考慮進去，那麼農業收入顯然會低於這個數字。但我們對該公司第一季的經營性 EBITDA 的預期為 46 億美元至 48 億美元。

And next, we move to Jonas Oxgaard with Bernstein.

接下來，我們來聽聽 Jonas Oxgaard 與 Bernstein 的訪談。

I'm trying to understand the guidance -- the full year guidance for Packaging & Specialty Plastics. Now I realize I'm on the record saying the guidance for commodities is futile. But you've tried to slash sales and yet in the very next page, you talked about $1.5 billion extra revenue from Sadara. TX-9, the derivatives is going to be in line. Crude is, I don't know, $15 higher than it was in '17 average. So why slash sales?

我正在努力理解這份指導意見——包裝和特種塑膠的全年指導意見。現在我意識到我公開表示過，對大宗商品價格的指導是徒勞無功的。但你們一方面試圖削減銷售額，另一方面卻在下一頁談到了來自 Sadara 的 15 億美元額外收入。TX-9及其衍生性商品將會按計劃進行。原油價格，我不知道，比 2017 年的平均價格高出 15 美元。那為什麼要大幅削減銷售額呢？

This -- yes, Jonas, this is Jim. A couple of things. If you looked at where we were in the fourth quarter, one of the things that was in the fourth quarter numbers was a pretty high amount of ethylene and hydrocarbon by-product sales. If you remember, we came out of the hurricane and we actually were running pretty well. Most of our competitors were having some trouble with the crackers, but our crackers were running and some of the polyethylene plants were down. We had Seadrift down, for example. So we had a little bit different mix than we usually had with more hydrocarbon sales. Our view going forward is we'll have less of that next year. I think we'll have a lighter crack slate next year, which means less by-products in Europe. This year, we had a big season in Europe. Butadiene prices spiked and so I think that's going to come off a little bit. We are going to have higher hydrocarbon costs through the year. So we're anticipating we'll be able to keep up with that, but we're not anticipating a huge margin improvement on that. And we've got some start-up costs in the first part of the year. So I think, in general, you're right. The Plastics business, volumes are going to increase, but the hydrocarbons by-product sales and the ethylene sales are going to come down a bit. And with the lighter crack slate, it'll be a little bit less advantageous in Europe for us for by-products sales.

沒錯，喬納斯，這就是吉姆。有幾件事。如果你看我們第四季的情況，你會發現第四季的數據中有一項指標是乙烯和碳氫化合物副產品的銷售額相當高。如果你還記得的話，我們撐過颶風之後，當時我們的發展狀況其實相當不錯。我們的大多數競爭對手的裂解裝置都遇到了一些問題，但我們的裂解裝置仍在運轉，而一些聚乙烯工廠卻停產了。例如，我們曾遭遇 Seadrift 事件。所以，我們的產品組合與往常略有不同，碳氫化合物的銷售量增加。我們預計明年這種情況會減少。我認為明年我們會得到較輕的裂紋板岩，這意味著歐洲的副產品將會減少。今年我們在歐洲取得了巨大的成功。丁二烯價格飆升，所以我認為它的價格會略有回落。今年油氣成本將會上漲。因此，我們預計能夠跟上這個進度，但我們預計不會在這方面有巨大的利潤提升。今年上半年我們還有一些啟動成本。所以我覺得，總的來說，你是對的。塑膠業務的銷售量將會增加，但碳氫化合物副產品銷量和乙烯銷售量將會略有下降。而且，由於裂紋板岩較輕，我們在歐洲的副產品銷售方面優勢會稍微小一些。

And that is all the time we do have for questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Neal Sheorey for any additional or closing remarks.

這就是我們全部的提問時間了。現在我願將電話轉回給尼爾·謝奧雷先生，請他補充或作總結發言。

Thank you, Rochelle, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call. We appreciate your interest in DowDuPont. For your reference, a copy of our transcript will be posted on DowDuPont's website later today. This concludes our call. Thank you very much.

謝謝羅謝爾，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對陶氏杜邦的關注。供您參考，我們的成績單副本將於今天晚些時候發佈在陶氏杜邦公司的網站上。通話到此結束。非常感謝。

And that will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。