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Operator
Operator
Good morning. Welcome to the CEMEX second-quarter 2013 conference call and video webcast. My name is Lorraine and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions).
早安.歡迎參加 CEMEX 2013 年第二季電話會議和視訊網路廣播。我叫洛林,今天我將擔任您的接線生。此時,所有參與者都處於只聽模式。稍後我們將進行問答環節。(操作員說明)。
Our hosts for today are Fernando Gonzalez, Executive Vice President of Finance and Administration, and Maher Al-Haffar, Vice President of Corporate Communications, Public Affairs, and Investor Relations.
今天的主持人是財務和行政執行副總裁 Fernando Gonzalez 以及企業傳播、公共事務和投資者關係副總裁 Maher Al-Haffar。
Now I will turn the conference over to your host, Fernando Gonzalez. Please proceed.
現在我將會議交給東道主費爾南多·岡薩雷斯。請繼續。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Thank you, operator. Good day to everyone and thank you for joining us for our second-quarter 2013 conference call and video webcast. After Maher and I discuss the results of the quarter, we will be happy to take your questions.
謝謝你,接線生。祝大家有美好的一天,感謝您參加我們的 2013 年第二季電話會議和視訊網路廣播。在馬赫和我討論本季的業績後,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。
During the second quarter, our operating EBITDA increased by 4% compared to the same period last year and by 2% when adjusting for the number of working days. We are pleased to report that this is the eighth consecutive quarter with a year-over-year growth in operating EBITDA. During the first six months of the year, operating EBITDA increased by 4% on a year-over-year basis adjusting for the effect of the change in the pension plan in the Northern Europe region during the first quarter of 2012.
第二季度,我們的營業 EBITDA 與去年同期相比成長了 4%,調整工作天數後成長了 2%。我們很高興地報告,這是營業 EBITDA 連續第八個季度同比增長。今年前 6 個月,經調整 2012 年第一季北歐地區退休金計畫變化的影響後,營業 EBITDA 較去年同期成長 4%。
Operating EBITDA margin also on a comparable basis increased by 0.8 percentage points. During this period, we saw improvement in pricing in several of our regions as well as continued cost reduction efforts.
營業 EBITDA 利潤率在可比較基礎上也成長了 0.8 個百分點。在此期間,我們看到幾個地區的定價有所改善,並且成本持續降低。
Consolidated volumes for ready mix and aggregates increased by 2% and 4% respectively during the quarter while cement volumes remained flat. The higher number of working days during the quarter positively contributed in 1 percentage point to these volumes.
本季預拌混凝土和骨材的綜合銷量分別成長 2% 和 4%,而水泥銷量則持平。本季工作日數量的增加對這些銷售量做出了 1 個百分點的正面貢獻。
Growth in cement volumes in the US, South, Central America, and the Caribbean, Mediterranean, and Asia regions offset lower volumes in Mexico and Northern Europe.
美國、南美洲、中美洲、加勒比海、地中海和亞洲地區水泥產量的成長抵消了墨西哥和北歐產量的下降。
Our consolidated prices in local currency terms for cement, ready mix, and aggregates increased by 2%, 3%, and 3% respectively during the quarter on a year-over-year basis.
本季度,我們以當地貨幣計算的水泥、預拌混凝土和骨材的綜合價格年增 2%、3% 和 3%。
If we look at year-to-date pricing dynamics from December 2012 to June 2013, cement prices are higher in most of our major countries with the exception of Mexico, the UK, and Colombia. In the case of Colombia, prices were stable in this period.
如果我們觀察 2012 年 12 月至 2013 年 6 月迄今的定價動態,就會發現除墨西哥、英國和哥倫比亞外,大多數主要國家的水泥價格都較高。就哥倫比亞而言,這段時期的價格穩定。
We continue with the implementation of our value before volume strategy in all of our regions, focusing our efforts on achieving sustainable margins in all of our business lines.
我們繼續在所有地區實施價值先於數量的策略,重點是努力在所有業務線中實現可持續的利潤率。
In cement, we are implementing the gross mines logic and price roadmap in countries that represent more than 80% of our volumes. We have also implemented surcharges and service fees where applicable. In ready mix, we have set benchmarks and initiatives companywide to promote the de-bundling of ready mix prices, show the promotion and enforcement of surcharges, partial load, and service fees.
在水泥方面,我們正在占我們產量 80% 以上的國家實施總礦山邏輯和價格路線圖。我們也實施了適用的附加費和服務費。在預拌粉方面,我們在全公司範圍內製定了基準和舉措,以促進預拌粉價格的分拆,展示附加費、部分裝載費和服務費的推廣和執行。
In aggregates, a companywide price management model has now been fully developed in line with the value before volume approach. This includes a methodology to set a revised price target market by market.
整體而言,全公司範圍內的價格管理模式現已完全按照先價值後數量的方式開發。這包括按市場設定修訂價格目標市場的方法。
On the cost side, we remain focused on adjusting our operations to current market dynamics. In Mexico, we have quickly adapted our operations to the temporary slowdown observed after the transition of the new government.
在成本方面,我們仍然專注於調整我們的營運以適應當前的市場動態。在墨西哥,我們迅速調整了業務,以適應新政府過渡後出現的暫時放緩。
In Northern Europe, we continue to right size our operations and implement further efficiency initiatives. The new cost reduction initiatives will result in savings of about $100 million during the second half of this year, about 60% in Mexico, and the rest in Northern Europe. These savings include headcount reductions, capacity rationalization, freight optimization, and cost management among others.
在北歐,我們持續調整業務規模並實施進一步的效率措施。新的成本削減措施將在今年下半年節省約 1 億美元,其中約 60% 在墨西哥,其餘在北歐。這些節省包括人員減少、產能合理化、貨運優化和成本管理等。
Alternative fuels substitution initiatives remain a very high priority. On a consolidated basis, alternative fuel utilization increased to 28% during the quarter from 27% in the same period last year.
替代燃料替代計劃仍然是一個非常重要的優先事項。綜合來看,本季替代燃料利用率從去年同期的 27% 增加到 28%。
Geographic mix has mitigated this growth as some European countries with higher substitution rates have grown less than our consolidated portfolio. However, year-over-year substitution rates in most countries in our portfolio continued to increase.
地理組合減緩了這種成長,因為一些替代率較高的歐洲國家的成長低於我們的綜合投資組合。然而,我們投資組合中的大多數國家的同比替代率繼續上升。
In the Americas, we saw higher alternative fuel utilization in the US, Colombia, Nicaragua, and the Dominican Republic during the first half of the year. In Europe, higher substitution was achieved in Poland, Germany, the UK, Spain, and Latvia in the same period. In addition, Egypt and the Philippines have also increased their alternative fuel usage.
在美洲,今年上半年,美國、哥倫比亞、尼加拉瓜和多明尼加共和國的替代燃料利用率較高。在歐洲,波蘭、德國、英國、西班牙和拉脫維亞在同一時期實現了更高的替代率。此外,埃及和菲律賓也增加了替代燃料的使用量。
Now I would like to discuss the most important development in our markets. In Mexico, our volumes during the quarter reflected to a large extent the delays in spending from the public sector on infrastructure as well as by lower sales of bag cement to government programs. In addition, the formal residential sector continued to be affected by financing constraints and the uncertainty of the rules under the new national housing program.
現在我想討論我們市場中最重要的發展。在墨西哥,本季的銷售量在很大程度上反映了公共部門基礎設施支出的延遲以及政府專案袋裝水泥銷售的下降。此外,正規住宅部門繼續受到融資限制和新的國家住房計劃規定的不確定性的影響。
Now talking about the different segments, the industrial and commercial sector grew in the mid single digits during the quarter. We expect this sector to continue having a positive trend during the second half of the year as manufacturing activity improves in tandem with US economic recovery. Activity from the informal residential sector declined slightly during the quarter, reflecting lower inflows from remittances and more moderate increases in formal employment and aggregate wages.
現在談論不同的細分市場,工業和商業部門在本季以中等個位數成長。我們預計,隨著製造業活動隨著美國經濟復甦而改善,該產業將在下半年繼續呈現正面趨勢。本季非正規住宅部門的活動略有下降,反映出匯款流入減少以及正規就業和總薪資成長較為溫和。
On the formal residential sector, activity during the quarter was affected by continued financing constraints, high inventories faced by some homebuilders especially in light of a higher emphasis on higher density urban planning by the government, as well as by the uncertainty of the rules under the new national housing plan.
在正規住宅領域,本季的活動受到持續的融資限制、一些住宅建築商面臨的高庫存(特別是考慮到政府更加重視高密度城市規劃)以及《規則》下規則的不確定性的影響。的國家住房計劃。
At the end of last month, the Ministry of Land and Urban Development announced the operating rules for housing subsidies which will apply starting in 2014. In addition, there was an increase in the subsidy program of the CONAVI. With this increase, the current budget for the subsidy program is now practically in line with the amount spent last year.
上月底,國土城建部公佈了2014年起實施的住房補貼操作細則。此外,CONAVI的補貼計劃也有所增加。隨著這一增加,目前的補貼計劃預算實際上與去年的支出金額一致。
There was an important pickup in the granting of subsidies during April and May. The average monthly amount of subsidies in these two months was 60% higher than during the first quarter. In addition, the average monthly amount of mortgages granted also increased by 20% during April and May compared to the first quarter.
4 月和 5 月補貼發放大幅增加。這兩個月的月均補貼金額比第一季增加了60%。此外,4月和5月平均每月發放的房貸金額也較第一季增加了20%。
We are encouraged by the various initiatives from the government to support activity in the formal housing sector including the announcement of two new financing programs for homebuilders, representing a total amount of more than $750 million.
我們對政府支持正規住房部門活動的各種舉措感到鼓舞,包括宣布了兩項針對住宅建築商的新融資計劃,總金額超過 7.5 億美元。
Although the infrastructure sector continued to be a drag on our volumes during the quarter, we are encouraged by the recent acceleration in public spending. For instance, the Department of Communications and Transportation has spent less than 1% of its annual budget as of February. As of May, the year-to-date execution of the budget had increased to 16%.
儘管基礎設施產業在本季持續拖累我們的銷售量,但近期公共支出的加速令我們感到鼓舞。例如,截至 2 月份,交通部的支出還不到年度預算的 1%。截至5月,年初至今的預算執行率已增至16%。
Moreover, earlier this month, the Federal Government announced its six-year national infrastructure plan. The total investment is about $315 billion and this is close to 30% higher in real terms than the spending done under held Calderon's period. Out of this amount, about $100 billion will be dedicated to telecommunication and infrastructure projects including roads, ports, airports, and railways. While the other segments in the infrastructure program use less of our products, we expect important levels of demand to be generated from the higher spending in these segments.
此外,本月早些時候,聯邦政府宣布了六年國家基礎設施計畫。總投資約 3,150 億美元,以實際價值計算,比卡爾德隆時期的支出高出近 30%。其中,約 1000 億美元將專門用於電信和基礎設施項目,包括公路、港口、機場和鐵路。雖然基礎設施計劃的其他部分使用我們的產品較少,但我們預計這些部分的較高支出將產生重要的需求水準。
We have been recently awarded several road and highway projects including the Mexico City Queretaro highway, which will bolster our volumes during the second half of 2013. In addition, there are other projects which should be awarded shortly and are also expected to start this year.
我們最近獲得了多個公路和高速公路項目,包括墨西哥城克雷塔羅高速公路,這將增加我們 2013 年下半年的銷售量。此外,還有其他項目即將授予,預計今年啟動。
Given the positive trends in some of the indicators in the formal residential and increased spending in the infrastructure sector, we expect a better performance during the second half of the year and more importantly, in 2014 and beyond. However, in light of our year-to-date volumes, we have adjusted our guidance for the full year.
鑑於正規住宅部分指標的正面趨勢以及基礎設施領域支出的增加,我們預計下半年、更重要的是 2014 年及以後會有更好的表現。然而,根據我們今年迄今的銷量,我們調整了全年的指導。
On the pricing side, earlier this month we announced a nationwide price increase of 60 pesos plus tax on domestic gray cement. This represents an increase of about 4%. We also announced a similar increase in ready mix. These actions are aimed at recovering our input cost inflation in cement and ready mix production. While we adopt the increases, we will actively monitor our market share in our different markets.
在定價方面,本月初我們宣布全國範圍內的國產灰水泥價格上漲60比索加稅。這意味著增幅約為 4%。我們也宣布了預拌粉的類似增長。這些行動旨在恢復水泥和預拌混凝土生產的投入成本通膨。在我們採取增加措施的同時,我們將積極監控我們在不同市場的市場份額。
Our US business continued its strong recovery during the second quarter, propelled by healthy price performance and significant operating leverage. During the quarter, our cement ready mix and aggregate volumes increased by 3%, 14%, and 8% respectively on a year-over-year basis. Quarterly cement volume growth was constrained by cool weather in some markets as well as not pursuing less profitable volumes in some of our markets.
在健康的價格表現和顯著的營運槓桿的推動下,我們的美國業務在第二季度繼續強勁復甦。本季度,我們的水泥預拌料和骨材產量較去年同期分別成長 3%、14% 和 8%。季度水泥銷售成長受到一些市場涼爽天氣以及某些市場不追求利潤較低的銷售量的限制。
Growth in cement and ready mix continue to be primarily driven by residential and industrial and commercial sectors. The residential sector remained the largest contributor to growth during the quarter.
水泥和預拌混凝土的成長仍然主要由住宅和工業和商業部門推動。住宅領域仍然是本季成長的最大貢獻者。
Housing permits in our four key states, Texas, Florida, California, and Arizona, are up 38% year-to-date May compared to a 27% growth rate at the national level. We do not believe that the recent rise in interest rates has affected demand for new home purchases to date. While down from its peak first-quarter levels, affordability still remains at historically high levels. The industrial and commercial sector continues to contribute to demand growth.
德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州、加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州這四個主要州的住房許可今年迄今增長了 38%,而全國水平的增長率為 27%。迄今為止,我們認為近期的利率上升並未影響新房購買需求。儘管低於第一季的峰值水平,但負擔能力仍保持在歷史高點。工業和商業部門繼續為需求成長做出貢獻。
On a year-over-year basis, construction spending for industrial and commercial rose 7% year-to-date May. While national contract awards are up 4% in real terms, contract awards for our key states are up 22%. Texas and Florida show the most dynamism.
5月份迄今,工業和商業建築支出較去年同期成長7%。雖然全國合約授予量實際增加了 4%,但我們主要州的合約授予量增加了 22%。德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州表現出最具活力。
We have seen a slowdown in infrastructure activity this year. Actual spending for highways and bridges is down 5% year-over-year through May. We attribute this weakness in year-to-date highway spending to a reduction in state discretionary highway spending, bad weather in many of our markets during the second quarter, and the continued withdrawal of Federal stimulus infrastructure funding. Based on the spending to date, we have downgraded our infrastructure volume expectation to a low single-digit decline. We do, however, continue to expect that this sector will show positive growth next year as the expanded Federal Direct Loan program for transportation infrastructure funding begins to take hold and the economic recovery progresses.
今年我們看到基礎建設活動放緩。截至 5 月份,公路和橋樑的實際支出較去年同期下降 5%。我們將年初至今高速公路支出的疲軟歸因於各州可自由支配的高速公路支出的減少、第二季度許多市場的惡劣天氣以及聯邦刺激基礎設施資金的持續撤回。根據迄今為止的支出,我們已將基礎設施數量預期下調至低個位數下降。然而,我們仍然預計,隨著擴大的交通基礎設施資金聯邦直接貸款計劃開始生效以及經濟復甦的進展,該行業明年將呈現正成長。
We have adjusted our volume guidance for the US chiefly to reflect the state of the infrastructure spending this year and the impact of weather that may defer some volume into 2014. We now expect cement volumes to grow by mid to high single digits.
我們調整了美國的交易量指引,主要是為了反映今年基礎設施支出的狀況以及可能將部分交易量推遲到 2014 年的天氣影響。我們現在預計水泥產量將以中位數到高個位數成長。
Pricing continues to respond well to market dynamics. During the second quarter, cement prices are up 4% on a year-over-year basis and by 1% sequentially as a result of our successful April price increases in markets that accounts for 22% of our volumes. We are moving ahead with a second round of price increases in the range of $5.50 and $8.80 per metric ton in Florida, Texas, and California during the third quarter.
定價繼續對市場動態做出良好反應。第二季度,水泥價格年增 4%,季增 1%,這是由於我們 4 月在占我們銷售 22% 的市場成功漲價。我們將在第三季將佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州的第二輪價格上漲至每噸 5.50 美元至 8.80 美元。
In our ready mix business, we continue to benefit from successful price actions during last year and this year as our all contract business rolls off and new projects start at higher prices. Ready mix prices are up 5% on a year-over-year basis and up 3% since the beginning of the year.
在我們的預拌粉業務中,隨著我們所有合約業務的減少以及新項目以更高的價格啟動,我們繼續受益於去年和今年成功的價格行動。預混料價格較去年同期上漲 5%,自年初以來上漲 3%。
Fees and surcharges for value-added services account for roughly a third of the year-over-year pricing increase. Second-half pricing increases of $6.50 to $10.50 per cubic meter were announced for Florida, Texas, California, and parts of Arizona.
加值服務的費用和附加費約佔年比價格漲幅的三分之一。佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州、加利福尼亞州和亞利桑那州部分地區宣布下半年價格上漲 6.50 美元至 10.50 美元/立方米。
In our aggregates business, prices are up 7% sequentially and 3% on a year-over-year basis due to product mix as well as to some traction of our January and April price increases.
在我們的骨材業務中,由於產品組合以及 1 月和 4 月價格上漲的一些推動,價格環比上漲 7%,比去年同期上漲 3%。
As we have stated previously, we are pleased with the pricing achievement to date but we still have a long way to go to eliminate the chronic pricing deficit of our products over the last decade there is necessary to achieve a fair return on capital employed. We remain committed to this goal.
正如我們之前所說,我們對迄今為止的定價成就感到滿意,但要消除過去十年我們產品的長期定價赤字,我們還有很長的路要走,有必要實現公平的已用資本回報。我們仍然致力於實現這一目標。
During the second quarter, the US business continued to enjoy significant operational leverage on a year-over-year basis. Pricing advances as well as volumes recovery were important contributors.
第二季度,美國業務年比繼續享有顯著的營運槓桿。定價進步和銷售恢復是重要的推動因素。
Optimizing our energy mix remains a key objective in the US. Year-to-date June, our alternative fuel utilization reached 25%, 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The US recovery is progressing well and we are encouraged by the pricing increases we have achieved to date particularly in ready mix at this early stage of recovery.
優化能源結構仍然是美國的關鍵目標。今年6月至今,我們的替代燃料利用率達25%,比去年同期高出3個百分點。美國的復甦進展順利,我們對迄今為止實現的價格上漲感到鼓舞,特別是在復甦的早期階段,預混料的價格上漲。
As we reach higher capacity utilization rates in our markets, we will rapidly increase prices to reach levels that reflect our cost of invested capital.
當我們在市場上達到更高的產能利用率時,我們將迅速提高價格,以達到反映我們投資資本成本的水平。
In our Northern Europe region, headwinds from the economic slowdown remains a drag on our volumes. However, we saw growth in our cement volumes during the quarter in the UK, Germany, Scandinavia, and the Czech Republic, as well as in our ready mix volumes in the UK and Latvia.
在北歐地區,經濟放緩帶來的不利因素仍然拖累我們的銷售量。然而,本季我們在英國、德國、斯堪的納維亞半島和捷克共和國的水泥銷量以及英國和拉脫維亞的預拌混凝土銷量有所增長。
Regional cement prices in local currency terms declined sequentially by 3% for cement. However, this decline is mainly due to a country mix. Year-to-date, cement prices from December last year to June increased in Germany, Poland, Scandinavia, and Latvia. Our ready mix prices in the same period increased in the UK, Germany, France, Austria, and Hungary. Pricing in aggregates was higher in the UK, France, Ireland, Latvia, and Austria.
以當地貨幣計算的地區水泥價格較上月下降了 3%。然而,這種下降主要是由於國家組合造成的。今年迄今,德國、波蘭、斯堪的納維亞半島和拉脫維亞的水泥價格從去年12月到6月都有所上漲。同期,我們在英國、德國、法國、奧地利和匈牙利的預拌粉價格上漲。英國、法國、愛爾蘭、拉脫維亞和奧地利的整體定價較高。
Year-to-date EBITDA margins declined by less than 1%, adjusting for the favorable effect during the first quarter of last year resulting from the change of a pension plan. Our cost reduction efforts and higher year-over-year ready mix in aggregates prices have in large part mitigated the lower volumes in the region.
年初至今,EBITDA 利潤率下降了不到 1%,並對去年第一季退休金計畫變化帶來的有利影響進行了調整。我們降低成本的努力和整體價格同比上漲在很大程度上緩解了該地區銷售下降的影響。
The rollout of our value before volume strategy across all business lines is well on track. During 2012, we went through cement and ready mix capacity shutdowns in support of this strategy. Year-to-date, we closed additional ready mix plants in Germany and Poland.
我們在所有業務線中推出「價值先於數量」的策略進展順利。2012 年,我們關閉了水泥和預拌混凝土產能,以支持此策略。今年迄今為止,我們關閉了在德國和波蘭的其他預拌工廠。
We also continue to adapt our cement production to customer needs. In the case of Poland, we are closely managing our capacity with actions including additional kiln stoppages and cost optimization.
我們也繼續根據客戶需求調整我們的水泥生產。就波蘭而言,我們正在密切管理我們的產能,並採取的措施包括額外的窯爐停工和成本優化。
In Germany, the residential sector remained the main driver of demand for our products during the second quarter, supported by low unemployment and mortgage rates and increases in wages and salaries.
在德國,在低失業率和抵押貸款利率以及工資和薪水上漲的支持下,第二季度住宅領域仍然是我們產品需求的主要驅動力。
Residential permits increased by 17% year-to-date as of April. We expect this sector to show a mid to high single-digit growth during 2013.
截至 4 月份,今年迄今的居住許可證數量增加了 17%。我們預計該產業 2013 年將呈現中高個位數成長。
In the industrial and commercial segment, we have seen a slight recovery in permits in the last few months after some months of volatility. We expect a slowdown in this sector resulting from the current macroeconomic environment.
在工業和商業領域,經過幾個月的波動,過去幾個月許可證數量略有回升。我們預計當前宏觀經濟環境將導致該產業放緩。
Regarding the infrastructure sector, there have been some restraints in new projects. We expect this sector to be stable this year.
基礎設施領域,新開工項目受到一定限制。我們預計今年該產業將保持穩定。
In Poland, volumes during the quarter were affected by adverse weather conditions especially in our home markets. Despite the decline in volumes, cement prices in local currency terms increased by 4% sequentially. During the quarter, there was a sharp reduction in infrastructure spending on a year-over-year basis. Second quarter 2012 is a difficult comparison due to the high level of construction activity related to the Euro 2012 Championship. In addition, a decline in EU funds for capital investment in the public sector is expected for this year.
在波蘭,本季的銷售量受到惡劣天氣條件的影響,尤其是在我們的國內市場。儘管銷量下降,但以當地貨幣計算的水泥價格環比上漲了 4%。本季度,基礎設施支出較去年同期大幅減少。由於與 2012 年歐洲錦標賽相關的高水準施工活動,2012 年第二季很難進行比較。此外,預計今年歐盟用於公共部門資本投資的資金將會減少。
Regarding the residential sector, we saw a slight increase in activity starting in February with an increase in cash sales. Interest rates have declined more than 2 percentage points in the last 12 months, which should translate into stability in the sector for this year and a potential significant improvement in 2014.
關於住宅領域,我們看到從 2 月開始,隨著現金銷售的增加,活動略有增加。在過去 12 個月裡,利率下降了超過 2 個百分點,這應該會轉化為今年該行業的穩定,並可能在 2014 年出現顯著改善。
In France, our ready mix volumes were affected by the weaker economic performance. Infrastructure activity continued to be supported by a number of highway and high-speed drywall projects that started during 2012 and will last several years. Activity in the sector should show slight growth this year as expected spending in anticipation of municipal elections this year should mitigate the effect of the economic downturn.
在法國,我們的預拌粉銷量受到經濟表現疲軟的影響。基礎設施活動繼續受到 2012 年啟動並將持續數年的一些高速公路和高速乾牆項目的支持。今年該行業的活動應會出現小幅增長,因為今年市政選舉的預期支出應會減輕經濟衰退的影響。
Regarding the residential sector are declining housing starts is anticipated for this year, reflecting tight credit availability and the effect of less attractive buy to let program introduced this year.
關於住宅領域,預計今年的新屋開工量將下降,反映出信貸供應緊張以及今年推出的買房出租計畫吸引力下降的影響。
In the United Kingdom, the 9% growth in cement volumes during the quarter was driven by growth in the residential sector and to a lesser extent to a catch-up effect from the adverse weather conditions seen in the previous year.
在英國,本季水泥產量增加了 9%,這主要是由住宅產業的成長所推動的,其次是去年惡劣天氣條件的追趕效應。
The residential sector has been positively impacted by government policies to promote home ownership including guarantees and interest-free loans as well as low interest rates for home acquisition in an environment of high rental prices.
住宅產業受到政府促進住房所有權政策的正面影響,包括擔保和無息貸款以及高租金環境下的低購屋利率。
In the Mediterranean region, we saw growth in volumes in Egypt and the Emirates, which more than offset the decline in Spain and Croatia. In ready mix, we registered positive volumes in our operations in Israel, Croatia, and the Emirates. Our value before volume strategy is delivering our expected results in the region.
在地中海地區,埃及和阿聯酋的銷量有所增長,這遠遠抵消了西班牙和克羅埃西亞的銷售下降。在預拌粉方面,我們在以色列、克羅埃西亞和阿聯酋的業務取得了積極的業績。我們的價值先於銷售量的策略正在該地區實現我們的預期成果。
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, regional prices in local currency terms increased by 7% for cemented and by 3% for ready mix. In addition, we continued to go through capacity adjustments in all of our businesses.
以當地貨幣計算,區域水泥價格較上月上漲 7%,預拌混凝土價格較上季上漲 3%。此外,我們持續對所有業務進行產能調整。
In Spain, demand for our products continued to be affected by low infrastructure activity. In contrast, prices continue to have a positive trend. Sequential domestic gray cement prices increased by 3% in local currency terms during the quarter, reflecting favorable traction from our March price increase.
在西班牙,對我們產品的需求持續受到基礎設施活動低迷的影響。相比之下,價格持續呈現正向趨勢。本季國內灰水泥價格以當地貨幣計算連續上漲 3%,反映我們 3 月漲價的有利推動力。
The continued fiscal austerity measures keep infrastructure spending at very low levels. In the residential sector, the market is gradually absorbing home inventories with close to 20% of home purchases currently done by foreigners.
持續的財政緊縮措施使基礎設施支出保持在非常低的水平。在住宅領域,市場正在逐步吸收房屋庫存,目前近 20% 的房屋購買是由外國人完成的。
Home prices continued to be adjusted but as a slow pace. We expect the residential sector to stabilize at a very low level during this year while investment in infrastructure should decline, reflecting continued budget cuts.
房價持續調整,但調整步伐緩慢。我們預計今年住宅領域將穩定在非常低的水平,而基礎設施投資將下降,反映出預算的持續削減。
We continue to export from Spain to other countries in order to mitigate the decline in domestic cement volumes. We also continue to sell clinker to third parties.
我們繼續從西班牙向其他國家出口,以緩解國內水泥產量的下降。我們也繼續向第三方出售熟料。
In addition during the quarter, we reached an agreement to sell our cement assets in our San Feliu plant together with the commercial activity down from this site. We had shut down production at this plant several months ago. We will continue to focus on markets with high strategic interest to us.
此外,在本季度,我們達成協議,出售聖費柳工廠的水泥資產以及該地點的商業活動。幾個月前我們已經關閉了這家工廠的生產。我們將繼續專注於對我們具有高度戰略利益的市場。
In Egypt, our domestic gray cement volumes during the second quarter increased by 18% although there have been disruptions in energy supply in the country as we have commented in the past, we have a domestic alternative fuel strategy which we began in 2007 and is delivering results. These allow us to operate regularly during the quarter.
在埃及,我們的國內灰水泥數量在第二季度增長了18%,儘管該國的能源供應出現了中斷,正如我們過去所評論的那樣,我們於2007 年開始製定了國內替代燃料戰略,並且正在實施結果。這些使我們能夠在本季正常運作。
Domestic cement prices increased by 10% in local currency and on a sequential basis. The year-to-date price increases have offset increasing fuel costs resulting from partial elimination of energy subsidies. In addition, more than 50% of our dispatches are related to our value-added branded bag cement, which also improves profitability.
國內水泥價格以當地貨幣計算較上月上漲10%。今年迄今的價格上漲抵消了部分取消能源補貼所導致的燃料成本上漲。此外,我們超過50%的出貨量與我們的加值品牌袋裝水泥有關,這也提高了獲利能力。
The main driver of cement consumption in the country remains the informal sector. Infrastructure activity continued to be low. For this year, we continue to expect downward pressure on our volumes reflecting the increased cement production capacity in the country.
該國水泥消費的主要驅動力仍為非正規部門。基礎設施活動持續低迷。今年,我們預計銷售量將繼續面臨下行壓力,反映出該國水泥產能的增加。
Operating EBITDA in Israel grew by 22% during the quarter. Ready mix volumes increased by 13%, with stable pricing during the quarter. Aggregate volumes also increased by 9% in the same period.
本季以色列的營業 EBITDA 成長了 22%。本季預混料銷量成長 13%,價格穩定。同期總成交量也成長了 9%。
In our South, Central America, and the Caribbean region, operating EBITDA margin grew by close to 2 percentage points during the quarter. For the first half of the year, EBITDA margin increased by close to 3 percentage points. These margin expansions reflect high pricing levels as well as our continued initiatives to improve order efficiency and reduce costs.
在南美洲、中美洲和加勒比海地區,本季營業 EBITDA 利潤率成長了近 2 個百分點。上半年,EBITDA 利潤率成長近3個百分點。這些利潤率的成長反映了高定價水準以及我們持續採取的提高訂單效率和降低成本的措施。
In Colombia, the demand environment improved during the second quarter with a sequential increase in cement, ready mix and aggregate volumes, adjusted for working days of 20%, 16%, and 18% respectively. On a year-over-year basis, our cement volumes during the second quarter increased by 3% and remained flat when adjusting for the additional working days.
在哥倫比亞,第二季需求環境有所改善,水泥、預拌混凝土和骨材產量較上季成長,調整後的工作日分別為 20%、16% 和 18%。與去年同期相比,我們第二季的水泥銷售量成長了 3%,並且在調整額外工作日後保持不變。
Our ready mix volumes for the first six months of the year increased by 5%, reflecting the benefits from our increased coverage in the country with the addition of 14 ready mix plants as well as our 23 CEMEX en su Obra on site project solutions.
今年前6 個月,我們的預拌混凝土銷量成長了5%,這反映出我們在該國增加了14 座預拌混凝土工廠以及23 座CEMEX en su Obra 現場專案解決方案,從而擴大了在該國的覆蓋範圍。
The residential sector was an important driver of cement demand during the quarter and we continue to expect a positive performance during the rest of the year on the back of several housing initiatives that have been announced including first, the construction process of the 100,000 Free Home program, which continues according to scale and is expected to be completed by early 2014.
住宅產業是本季水泥需求的重要驅動力,我們繼續預計今年剩餘時間將出現積極表現,這得益於已宣布的多項住房舉措,包括首先是 100,000 套免費住房計劃的建設進程,按規模繼續進行,預計2014年初完成。
Second, on an additional 100,000 homes, the government has announced subsidies on the mortgage rate and the actual cost of the house and will also provide a guarantee to ensure access to financing. Third, the government is also providing subsidies on the mortgage rates on 32,000 middle income homes.
其次,對於另外10萬套住房,政府已宣布對抵押貸款利率和房屋實際成本進行補貼,並將提供融資保障。第三,政府也為32,000套中等收入房屋提供抵押貸款利率補貼。
Regarding the infrastructure sector, we expect the increased activity during the second half of 2013 as some of the projects could be accelerated in anticipation of elections in May 2014. We remain very optimistic on the outlook for our operations in Colombia.
關於基礎設施領域,我們預計 2013 年下半年活動將會增加,因為預計 2014 年 5 月將舉行選舉,一些項目可能會加速。我們對哥倫比亞業務的前景仍然非常樂觀。
We expect that the positive trend in the residential and industrial and commercial sectors along with higher infrastructure activity in the second half of the year will allow us to reach our full-year volume expectations.
我們預計,下半年住宅和工業和商業領域的積極趨勢以及基礎設施活動的增加將使我們能夠達到全年銷售預期。
In Panama, our domestic gray cement volumes increased by 6% during the quarter and by 3% during the first six months of the year versus the comparable periods a year ago. This growth is driven mainly by the favorable performance of the residential sector as well as the expansion of the Panama Canal.
在巴拿馬,與去年同期相比,本季國內灰水泥銷量成長了 6%,今年前六個月成長了 3%。這一增長主要得益於住宅領域的良好表現以及巴拿馬運河的擴建。
The residential sector particularly middle to high income housing has continued its positive trend. Bank mortgages have grown by 10% in the January-May period. We expect this favorable performance to continue for the remainder of the year.
住宅領域,特別是中高收入住房繼續保持積極趨勢。1-5月期間銀行抵押貸款增加了10%。我們預計這種良好的表現將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。
In terms of infrastructure, demand growth has been supported by several ongoing projects such as the Canal expansion, the Cinta Costera project and the Corredor Norte Highway. Going forward, we expect infrastructure spending to continue driving demand with new projects such as the third and fourth bridges over the Canal, the second and third lines of Panama City subway, the Mina de Cobre hydroelectric plant, and others.
在基礎設施方面,需求成長得到了運河擴建、Cinta Costera 項目和 Corredor Norte 高速公路等多個正在進行的項目的支持。展望未來,我們預計基礎設施支出將繼續推動新項目的需求,如運河第三橋和第四橋、巴拿馬城地鐵二線和三線、米納德科布雷水力發電廠等。
In addition, the development of the copper mining sector in Panama should result in incremental spending with announced investments of about $6 billion over the next five years.
此外,巴拿馬銅礦開採業的發展將導致支出增加,未來五年已宣布的投資額約為 60 億美元。
In Asia, operating EBITDA margin expanded in 2.6 and 4.9 percentage points during the second quarter and the first half of the year driven by strong prices and higher volumes. The regional increase in domestic cement volumes during the quarter reflects the positive performance of our operations in the Philippines. In this country, we registered record cement volumes during the second quarter. The growth in volumes was driven by the residential and to a lesser extent the infrastructure and industrial and commercial sectors. Prices were stable sequentially.
在亞洲,由於價格強勁和銷售增加,第二季和上半年的營業 EBITDA 利潤率分別成長了 2.6 和 4.9 個百分點。本季國內水泥銷量的區域成長反映了我們在菲律賓業務的積極表現。在這個國家,我們第二季的水泥產量創下了紀錄。銷量的成長是由住宅以及較小程度的基礎設施和工業和商業部門推動的。價格季比穩定。
In the residential sector, there has been increased activity from foreign buyers especially from Hong Kong and Singapore. In the residential sector, we continue to benefit from stable inflation and low mortgage lending rates as well as strong remittances. Infrastructure spending is expected to remain healthy with projects still in the pipeline and the upcoming midterm elections.
在住宅領域,外國買家的活動增加,尤其是來自香港和新加坡的買家。在住宅領域,我們繼續受益於穩定的通膨、較低的抵押貸款利率以及強勁的匯款。由於項目仍在籌備中以及即將到來的中期選舉,基礎設施支出預計將保持健康。
To satisfy the fast-growing market in the country, our new grinding capacity in the Philippines of 1.5 million tons per year is expected to be operational during the second quarter of 2014.
為了滿足該國快速成長的市場,我們在菲律賓新建的每年150萬噸的磨礦產能預計將於2014年第二季投入營運。
In summary, we are pleased with the growth in volumes in most of our regions, which has translated into positive impact on our pricing and implementation of our value before volume strategy. We expect the cost reduction initiatives we are implementing in Mexico and the Northern Europe region will keep us on track to meet our full-year operating EBITDA expectations.
總而言之,我們對大多數地區的銷售成長感到滿意,這對我們的定價和實施先於銷售策略的價值產生了積極影響。我們預計,我們在墨西哥和北歐地區實施的成本削減措施將使我們能夠實現全年營運 EBITDA 預期。
Now I will turn the call over to Maher to discuss our financials.
現在我將把電話轉給馬赫討論我們的財務狀況。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Thank you, Fernando. Hello, everyone. Our quarterly operating EBITDA increased by 4% or by 2% adjusting for the higher number of working days during the quarter. Operating EBITDA margin remained flat in the same period. During the first half of the year, operating EBITDA on a comparable basis grew 4% versus the same in 2012, while operating margin increased by 0.8 percentage points.
謝謝你,費爾南多。大家好。我們的季度營業 EBITDA 成長了 4%,調整後的季度工作天數增加了 2%。營業 EBITDA 利潤率同期持平。上半年,可比經營 EBITDA 較 2012 年成長 4%,經營利潤率成長 0.8 個百分點。
This margin expansion was driven by higher prices in most of our region as already discussed by Fernando, our continued cost-reduction efforts as well as the continued favorable operating leverage in the US.
正如費爾南多已經討論過的那樣,我們大部分地區的價格上漲、我們持續的成本削減努力以及美國持續有利的營運槓桿推動了利潤率的成長。
Cost of sales as a percent of net sales decreased by 2% -- points during the quarter. The decline includes a reduction in workforce related to our cost-reduction initiatives and lower electricity costs.
本季銷售成本佔淨銷售額的百分比下降了 2%。下降包括與我們的成本削減計劃相關的勞動力減少和電力成本降低。
Our operating expenses as a percentage of net sales remain practically flat on a year-over-year basis. We also continue with our efforts to reduce these expenses.
我們的營運費用佔淨銷售額的百分比實際上與去年同期持平。我們也將繼續努力減少這些費用。
Our kiln fuel and electricity bill on a per ton of cement produced basis increased by 2% during the second quarter and was flat for the first six months of the year versus the comparable periods in 2012. The savings achieved from using alternative fuels during the first half of the year reached about $45 million, which is about 16% of the total cement fuel bill in the same period.
第二季度,我們每生產一噸水泥的窯爐燃料和電費增加了 2%,今年前六個月與 2012 年同期持平。上半年使用替代燃料節省的成本約為 4,500 萬美元,約佔同期水泥燃料費用總額的 16%。
During the quarter, our free cash flow after maintenance CapEx was negative $86 million versus a positive $21 million last year. The year-over-year variations in free cash flow is due mainly to higher CapEx, working capital, and cash taxes which were partially mitigated by higher operating EBITDA generation.
本季度,維護資本支出後我們的自由現金流為負 8,600 萬美元,去年為正 2,100 萬美元。自由現金流的同比變化主要是由於資本支出、營運資本和現金稅的增加,但營運 EBITDA 產生的增加部分緩解了這些因素。
The higher year-over-year working capital investment during the quarter is mainly a result of higher receivables reflecting higher sales. However, days receivable declined by two days during the period, reflecting our tight working capital management. In fact, year-to-date working capital days declined to 28 days from 30 days during the same period in 2012, representing a reduction in working capital investment of close to $80 million.
本季營運資本投資年增主要是由於應收帳款增加反映了銷售額的增加。然而,期內應收帳款週轉天數下降了兩天,反映出我們嚴格的營運資金管理。事實上,年初至今的營運資金天數從 2012 年同期的 30 天下降到 28 天,意味著營運資金投資減少了近 8,000 萬美元。
As in prior years, we expect to recover most of the year-to-date investment in working capital during the second half of the year and we feel very comfortable in achieving our full-year guidance.
與往年一樣,我們預計將在下半年收回今年迄今的大部分營運資本投資,並且我們對實現全年指引感到非常滿意。
About half of the $57 million increase in cash taxes during the quarter reflects a settlement with the Colombian Tax Authority as disclosed in our quarterly report.
正如我們在季度報告中所揭露的那樣,本季現金稅增加的 5,700 萬美元中約有一半反映了與哥倫比亞稅務局的和解。
In the second-quarter income statement, other expenses net of $106 million include mainly impairments of fixed assets, severance payments, as well as a loss in sale of fixed assets. During the quarter, we recognized a non-cash exchange gain of $102 million due primarily to the fluctuation of the euro and the Mexican peso versus the US dollar. We also recognized a loss on financial instruments of $52 million related mainly to CEMEX shares.
在第二季損益表中,其他費用淨額為1.06億美元,主要包括固定資產減損、遣散費以及固定資產出售損失。本季度,我們確認了 1.02 億美元的非現金匯兌收益,這主要是由於歐元和墨西哥比索兌美元匯率的波動。我們也確認了 5,200 萬美元的金融工具損失,主要與 CEMEX 股票相關。
We had a controlling interest in net loss of $152 million during the quarter versus a loss of $187 million last year. The lower loss reflects higher operating earnings before other expenses and an FX again, which more than offset the higher other expenses, the higher loss on financial instruments, and higher income tax.
我們擁有控股權,本季淨虧損為 1.52 億美元,而去年的淨虧損為 1.87 億美元。較低的虧損反映出不計其他費用和外匯的營業利潤較高,這足以抵銷較高的其他費用、較高的金融工具虧損和較高的所得稅。
During the second quarter, we had about $110 million in proceeds from our securitization programs in different countries. In general, these securitization programs helps us manage our working capital cycle and they represent an efficient way of financing on attractive terms.
第二季度,我們在不同國家的證券化項目中獲得了約 1.1 億美元的收益。總的來說,這些證券化計畫有助於我們管理營運資金週期,並且它們代表了一種以有吸引力的條件進行有效融資的方式。
Proceeds from our securitization programs plus cash on hand were used mainly to meet the negative free cash flow during the quarter, reduce debt and service our perpetual notes. As in previous years, the seasonally negative working capital is related to the business cycle and most of it is expected to be reversed during the second half of the year.
我們的證券化計畫收益加上庫存現金主要用於解決本季的負自由現金流、減少債務和償還我們的永續票據。與往年一樣,季節性營運資本負值與經濟週期有關,預計下半年大部分將扭轉。
Total debt plus perpetual securities declined by $51 million during the quarter. The debt reflects a negative foreign-exchange conversion effect of $13 million. We continue to be comfortable with our liquidity position with cash and cash equivalents reaching $746 million as of the end of the quarter. In addition, we continue to maintain over $2 billion of working capital and receivables financing facilities, which further bolster our liquidity position.
本季總債務加上永續證券減少了 5,100 萬美元。該債務反映了 1300 萬美元的負外匯兌換效應。我們對流動性狀況持續感到滿意,截至本季末,現金和現金等價物達到 7.46 億美元。此外,我們繼續保持超過 20 億美元的營運資金和應收帳款融資設施,這進一步增強了我們的流動性狀況。
Now Fernando will discuss our outlook for this year.
現在費爾南多將討論我們今年的展望。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
For 2013, our expectations for growth in our consolidated cement and ready mix volumes remain unchanged at 1% and 2% respectively. In the case of aggregates, we are improving our consolidated volume guidance for the year to 2% growth from 1% before. We expect the improvement in volumes from our operations in the US, the South Central America and the Caribbean region and Asia will more than offset the expected weaker Northern Europe and Mediterranean regions.
2013 年,我們對合併水泥和預拌混凝土銷售成長的預期保持不變,分別為 1% 和 2%。就總量而言,我們正在將今年的綜合銷量指引從先前的 1% 提高到 2%。我們預計,我們在美國、中南美洲和加勒比地區以及亞洲業務的銷售改善將遠遠抵消北歐和地中海地區預期的疲軟。
We also expect the performance of our Mexican operations to be better during the second half of the year. Our cost of energy on a per ton of cement produced basis is now expected to be relatively flat from last year's levels.
我們也預期墨西哥業務下半年的業績將會更好。目前,我們每生產一噸水泥的能源成本預計將與去年的水平相對持平。
Guidance for total CapEx for 2013 remains unchanged at about $700 million. This includes $510 million in maintenance CapEx and $190 million in strategic CapEx.
2013 年資本支出總額指引維持在 7 億美元左右不變。其中包括 5.1 億美元的維護資本支出和 1.9 億美元的戰略資本支出。
We expect cash taxes for 2013 to be slightly higher compared to last year. This guidance depends on the outcome of pending legal proceedings.
我們預計 2013 年的現金稅將略高於去年。該指導取決於未決法律訴訟的結果。
Regarding working capital, we expect the working capital investment during this year to be similar to last year's. We also anticipate no major change in this year cost of debt including our perpetual and convertible securities from 2012 levels.
關於營運資金,我們預計今年的營運資金投資與去年相似。我們也預計今年的債務成本(包括我們的永續證券和可轉換證券)與 2012 年的水準相比不會發生重大變化。
In closing, I want to emphasize three points. First, as I mentioned earlier in the call, during the quarter we saw an increase in our consolidated prices in local currency terms for our premade products on a year-over-year basis. Pricing trends continued to be favorable with year-to-date prices higher in most countries in our portfolio.
最後,我想強調三點。首先,正如我之前在電話會議中提到的,在本季度,我們的預製產品以當地貨幣計算的綜合價格同比有所上漲。定價趨勢持續有利,我們投資組合中的大多數國家今年迄今的價格都較高。
Second, we have seen eight consecutive quarters of operating EBITDA growth. The year-to-date EBITDA growth and EBITDA margin expansion on a comparable basis reflect an improvement in pricing and the success of our continued cost initiatives which more than offset the decline in volumes.
其次,我們看到營業 EBITDA 連續八個季度成長。今年迄今為止的 EBITDA 成長和 EBITDA 利潤率在可比較基礎上的擴張反映了定價的改善以及我們持續的成本計劃的成功,這足以抵消銷售量的下降。
Third, we remain vigilant about our cost base. We continue to be focused on our companywide efforts to improve our operating efficiencies and the value we generate from our asset base while delivering better value to our customers. Thank you for your attention.
第三,我們對我們的成本基礎保持警惕。我們繼續專注於全公司範圍內的努力,以提高我們的營運效率和我們從資產基礎中產生的價值,同時為我們的客戶提供更好的價值。感謝您的關注。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Before we go into our Q&A session, I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements we make today are based on our current knowledge of the markets in which we operate and could change in the future due to a variety of factors beyond our control.
在我們進入問答環節之前,我想提醒您,我們今天做出的任何前瞻性陳述都是基於我們目前對我們經營所在市場的了解,並且由於我們無法預測的各種因素,未來可能會發生變化。控制。
In addition, unless the context indicates otherwise, all references to pricing initiatives, price increases or decreases, that would be referring to our prices for our products.
此外,除非上下文另有說明,否則所有提及定價措施、價格上漲或下跌的內容均指我們產品的價格。
And now we will be happy to take your questions. Operator?
現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Nikolas Lippmann, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)。尼可拉斯李普曼,摩根士丹利。
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Good morning and thanks for the call. A couple of questions related to operations. In Mexico, (technical difficulty) In Mexico, you are growing the -- your decline in volumes and ready mix is significant less than in cement. Can you comment on what's going on there? It seems a bit odd in the light of weak government spending, so that's question number one.
早安,感謝您的來電。幾個與操作相關的問題。在墨西哥,(技術困難)在墨西哥,你正在種植——你的產量和預拌混合物的下降明顯小於水泥。你能評論一下那裡發生了什麼嗎?鑑於政府支出疲弱,這似乎有點奇怪,所以這是第一個問題。
Question number two relative to US, can you comment on it looks like you're seeing really strong pricing in ready mix. Can you maybe talk a little bit about that and especially how much of that comes out on Florida? Thanks.
相對於美國的第二個問題,您能否對此發表評論,看起來您在現成的組合中看到了非常強勁的定價。您能否談談這一點,特別是其中有多少是在佛羅裡達州發生的?謝謝。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Yes, checking your question in Mexico because the connection was not that good, is it related to margins in cement?
是的,在墨西哥檢查你的問題,因為連接不太好,這與水泥的利潤率有關嗎?
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
No, I'm just wondering in the light of really weak spending from the government, it surprised me to see that ready mix doing, say, less bad than cement. Can you say what's going on there? You have a bigger decline in cement than in ready mix.
不,我只是想知道,鑑於政府支出確實疲軟,令我驚訝的是,預拌混凝土的表現比水泥還好。你能說說那裡發生了什麼事嗎?水泥的下降幅度比預拌混凝土的下降幅度更大。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Okay, I think part of the explanation is because there was some spending last year that was not present this year related to bag cement, which is not -- ready mix is not related to that sector.
好吧,我認為部分解釋是因為去年有一些與袋裝水泥相關的支出今年沒有出現,而預拌混凝土與該行業無關。
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
And if you could repeat your question about ready mix in the US, I didn't quite get that.
如果你能重複一下關於美國預拌粉的問題,我不太明白。
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Can you just comment a little bit on how much of what we are seeing in terms of the improvement in probability is coming out of the ready mix pricing? Maybe if you can give some color on the operating environment in Florida, in particular? If you're making breakeven there for example?
您能否簡單評論一下我們所看到的機率改進有多少來自於現成的混合定價?或許您可以特別介紹佛羅裡達州的營運環境?例如,如果您在那裡實現收支平衡?
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Sure, Florida for this quarter was probably one of the best performers in terms of volume and of course you have to remember is that we are probably most integrated in Florida into ready mix and aggregates and so clearly there's a lot of operating leverage as a consequence of the volume behavior there.
當然,就數量而言,佛羅裡達州本季度可能是表現最好的州之一,當然您必須記住,我們可能在佛羅裡達州最融入預拌和聚合,因此顯然有很多運營槓桿那裡的音量行為。
We continue to see good traction for our pricing and as we mentioned last quarter for the first time in many, many quarters, we began to see traction for our pricing in that market. So clearly Florida was a very important contributor.
我們繼續看到我們的定價具有良好的吸引力,正如我們上個季度在許多許多季度以來第一次提到的那樣,我們開始看到我們的定價在該市場的吸引力。顯然佛羅裡達州是一個非常重要的貢獻者。
By and large, our markets I think are doing as well or maybe slightly better I would say than some of the other markets that we are not in.
總的來說,我認為我們的市場表現與我們未涉足的其他一些市場一樣好,甚至可能稍微好一點。
And in terms of ready mix, pricing frankly because of the significant underinvestment historically in the area, at the margin in order to justify investments, there's definitely pressure on pricing. So we are seeing very important -- I would say price support from most of the players in the market in general because of that dynamic and we think that that is likely to continue or should continue.
就現成組合而言,坦白說,由於該地區歷史上投資嚴重不足,為了證明投資的合理性,定價肯定存在壓力。因此,我們看到非常重要的——我想說,由於這種動態,市場上大多數參與者的價格支持,我們認為這種情況可能會持續或應該持續。
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
That's good news. Thanks, Maher. One final question, if I may. Just in terms of the tax liability, the tax amnesty in Mexico, are you decreasing an existing liability on the basis of that?
這是個好消息。謝謝,馬赫。最後一個問題,如果可以的話。就稅務義務而言,墨西哥的稅務特赦,您是否會在此基礎上減少現有的負債?
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Are we what -- sorry? Did you say decreasing?
我們是什麼——抱歉?你說減少?
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
You mentioned the tax amnesty in Mexico. Is that causing one of your tax liabilities to disappear, decrease? How much would that be?
您提到了墨西哥的稅務特赦。這是否會導致您的一項納稅義務消失或減少?那會是多少?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
I'm not sure I got the question correctly. We are not having a good line, but --
我不確定我是否正確地回答了這個問題。我們的線路不太好,但是—
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Nikolas Lippmann - Analyst
Yes, the line is terrible. I will send you an email after the call.
是的,這條線太可怕了。通話後我會向您發送電子郵件。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Vanessa Quiroga, Credit Suisse.
凡妮莎·基羅加,瑞士信貸。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Good morning, Fernando, Maher. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is regarding Mexico. This quarter we saw similar trends in volumes and prices compared to first quarter and yet EBITDA margin was lower both quarter-on-quarter and year-over-year. Can you explain what happened there?
早安,費爾南多,馬赫。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於墨西哥的。本季度,與第一季相比,我們看到銷售量和價格的趨勢相似,但 EBITDA 利潤率較上季和年比均較低。你能解釋一下那裡發生了什麼事嗎?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Yes, in the second quarter on top of, as you mentioned, the trends we saw in prices and volumes in the first quarter, what we have is two additional kiln maintenance, so this is a one-time effect that is due to this factor. The rest of the impact is quite similar to the first quarter, meaning prices and volumes.
是的,正如您所提到的,在第二季度,除了我們在第一季看到的價格和銷售趨勢之外,我們還有兩次額外的窯爐維護,所以這是由於這個因素造成的一次性影響。其餘影響與第一季非常相似,即價格和銷售量。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
So could you quantify the effect of this one-time maintenance costs? Or would you say that the margins would come in similar quarter on quarter?
那麼您能能量化一下一次性維修成本的影響嗎?或者你會說每季的利潤率會相似嗎?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Would be similar, I think the impact of -- in margin terms of this maintenance is about 3 percentage points. So it is most of the variation compared to last quarter -- to first quarter.
類似的,我認為,就保證金而言,本次維護的影響約為 3 個百分點。因此,與上一季和第一季相比,變化最大。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Okay, great. My second question is regarding the savings that you announced on the presentation. This $100 million savings, are those for the first half -- for the second half only? So annualized are we talking about $200 million savings from now is sustainable?
好的,太好了。我的第二個問題是關於您在演示中宣布的節省費用的問題。這 1 億美元的節省是上半年的費用還是下半年的費用?那麼按年計算,我們是否認為從現在開始節省 2 億美元是可持續的?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
It's clearly $100 million for the second half of the year and then given that none of them are recurrent, then not necessarily we can translate the $100 million to let's say the full $200 million for next year. Some of these savings are related to the volume impact we have during the first half and as we have commented, we do expect that trend in volumes to reverse during the second half. So we cannot say that -- you can multiply 100 times two in order to get the savings for next year.
顯然,下半年的資金為 1 億美元,而且考慮到這些資金都不是經常性的,那麼我們不一定可以將這 1 億美元轉化為明年的全部 2 億美元。其中一些節省與我們上半年的銷售影響有關,正如我們所評論的那樣,我們確實預計下半年銷售趨勢會逆轉。所以我們不能這麼說——你可以乘以 100 乘以 2 以獲得明年的節省。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Okay, great. Then my third question about the US pricing, so far you have announced price increases totaling on average maybe 8%, 10% at least for each of the markets so far and we have seen 3% to 4% year-on-year increases. So would you say that your average hit ratio or success ratio is more or less 30%, 40% of the announcements and that success ratio should increase as utilization rates increase? I just want to understand how to model basically your price increases, how much of that actually is reflecting on your operations?
好的,太好了。然後是關於美國定價的第三個問題,到目前為止,你們已經宣布每個市場的平均價格上漲總計可能為 8%,至少 10%,我們已經看到同比增長 3% 到 4%。那麼您是否認為您的平均命中率或成功率大約是公告的 30%、40%,成功率應該隨著利用率的增加而增加?我只是想了解如何對您的價格上漲進行基本建模,其中有多少實際上反映在您的營運中?
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
That is a very good question, Vanessa, and I think it's very important to keep in mind that if we take a look at our January pricing increase, that probably affected about three quarters of our markets in the case of cement and it probably affected a little bit more in the case of ready mix.
這是一個非常好的問題,瓦妮莎,我認為記住這一點非常重要,如果我們看看一月份的價格上漲,這可能影響了我們大約四分之三的水泥市場,並且可能影響瞭如果是預拌粉,則多一點。
In the case of ready mix, you need to take into consideration of course that we have a little bit under half of our business is a contract-based business, so the pricing taking into effect will happen over time and it should accelerate during the course of the year everything else being equal.
在預混的情況下,您當然需要考慮到我們有不到一半的業務是基於合約的業務,因此定價將隨著時間的推移而生效,並且在此過程中應該會加速在其他條件相同的情況下。
The April price increase, as Fernando mentioned, covers a little bit under a quarter of our markets and again, as Fernando mentioned, we think as -- and we've gotten traction on these pricing increases pretty much in all of our markets, so we are very happy with what's going on in all of our markets.
正如費爾南多所提到的,四月份的價格上漲覆蓋了我們市場的四分之一,而且正如費爾南多所提到的,我們認為——而且我們幾乎在所有市場上都受到了這些價格上漲的推動,所以我們對所有市場的情況感到非常滿意。
The other thing of course is that we have announced a second set of prices, so we should definitely be extracting more pricing growth in the markets in the US.
當然,另一件事是我們已經宣布了第二套價格,因此我們肯定應該在美國市場上獲得更多的定價成長。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
That's a very interesting. Thank you, Maher and Fernando. Thanks.
這是一個非常有趣的事情。謝謝馬赫和費爾南多。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Gordon Lee, BTG.
戈登李,BTG。
Gordon Lee - Analyst
Gordon Lee - Analyst
Good morning. Just a couple quick questions on Mexico following up on the margin question. Let's say three-quarters of the sequential contraction has to do with the extraordinary maintenance on those two kilns that you mentioned. Have you identified any additional such extraordinary maintenance that you might have to do on other kilns? In other words, is this going to be somewhat more recurring this year or is this about as far as the extraordinary maintenances that you've identified at least so far?
早安.關於墨西哥的保證金問題,我想問幾個簡單的問題。假設四分之三的連續收縮與您提到的那兩個窯爐的特殊維護有關。您是否發現其他窯爐可能需要進行額外的此類特殊維護?換句話說,今年這種情況是否會更加頻繁地發生,或者這是否與您至少到目前為止所發現的特殊維護有關?
Then the second question is on prices in Mexico, which were down 2% sequentially, obviously reflecting the impact of the introduction of the Fortaleza capacity, I would assume. But with the increases -- were the decreases in pricing concentrated in the central region or did you see pressure on pricing in other regions as well? Thank you.
第二個問題是墨西哥的價格,我認為該價格環比下降了 2%,這顯然反映了福塔萊薩產能引入的影響。但隨著價格的上漲,價格的下降是否集中在中部地區,還是您也看到了其他地區的價格壓力?謝謝。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
On your first question, Gordon, I think there might be one additional maintenance, meaning additional to the number of maintenance we did last year, so it might not be that relevant.
關於你的第一個問題,戈登,我認為可能會有額外的維護,這意味著我們去年所做的維護次數是額外的,所以它可能不那麼相關。
The other thing I should add on margins in Mexico is that to a lesser extent during the second quarter there was also an impact on all the strategy in introducing our special cement products that would not be re-bidded -- not to the level that we did during the second quarter. So we shouldn't expect a significant impact on margins moving forward because of these issues in Mexico.
關於墨西哥的利潤率,我要補充的另一件事是,第二季度對推出不會重新招標的特殊水泥產品的所有策略也產生了一定程度的影響,但沒有達到我們預期的水平。季度做到了。因此,我們不應預期墨西哥的這些問題會對未來的利潤率產生重大影響。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
And on the pricing, could you repeat your question on the pricing? I think you had a --?
關於定價,您能重複一下關於定價的問題嗎?我想你有一個——?
Gordon Lee - Analyst
Gordon Lee - Analyst
The question on pricing was basically pricing fell 2% quarter-on-quarter, the first quarter versus second quarter in Mexico in local currency terms. My question is with that concentrated, that decline concentrated in the central region and you could assume it has entirely to do with the Fortaleza expansion being absorbed during the quarter, the Fortaleza greenfield being absorbed during the quarter or did you see generalized pricing pressure across the country?
關於定價的問題基本上是,以當地貨幣計算,墨西哥第一季與第二季的定價較上季下降了 2%。我的問題是,這種下降集中在中部地區,你可以認為這完全與福塔雷薩擴張在本季度被吸收有關,福塔雷薩綠地在本季度被吸收有關,或者你是否看到了整個地區的普遍定價壓力國家?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
It is generalized. It is not specific to a region. It is generalized and it's mainly because of the dynamics in the market when volumes are adjusted, are going down, so that is nothing particularly specific to any region.
這是普遍化的。它不特定於某個地區。這是概括性的,主要是因為交易量調整時市場的動態正在下降,所以這對任何地區來說都沒有什麼特別的意義。
Gordon Lee - Analyst
Gordon Lee - Analyst
Understood, thank you.
明白了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
We will now take a web question from the web.
我們現在將從網路上獲取一個網路問題。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
The question from the website is from Yulia Veselova, Credit Suisse. The question is please could you explain the drivers behind an 18% year-on-year cement volume increase in the quarter in Egypt? Please could you tell us how tight energy supply impacts your operations in the country?
該網站的問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Yulia Veselova。問題是,您能否解釋一下埃及本季水泥銷量年增 18% 背後的驅動因素?請您告訴我們能源供應緊張對您在該國的業務有何影響?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
The 18% growth is mainly due informal construction, informal housing construction in general terms. Now to some extent as you know because of the energy supply issues the country is going through, part of this increase in the case of our volumes is because of a combination of factors. Some of cement companies in the North of Egypt, our cement plant is located in the South, are suffering from shortages of particularly from gas. And in our case, we aren't as I think we commented before, we have a combination in the case of our plant in Egypt that we use fuel oil, which as of today, it continues available in that part of the country. And we have complemented our energy strategy in Egypt with the use of alternative fuels.
18% 的成長主要歸功於非正規建築,一般而言非正規房屋建設。現在,正如您所知,在某種程度上,由於該國正在經歷能源供應問題,我們的產量成長部分是由於多種因素的綜合作用。埃及北部的一些水泥公司(我們的水泥廠位於南部)正遭受短缺,特別是天然氣短缺。就我們而言,我們並不像我之前評論的那樣,我們在埃及的工廠使用燃油,截至今天,該國該地區仍然可以使用燃油。我們透過使用替代燃料來補充我們在埃及的能源戰略。
So our use of alternative fuels in Egypt in the second quarter was for the whole plant was close to 20%. So that combination is allowing us to do cement without any disruption or any negative impact because of the shortages of energy in the country. Operator?
所以我們第二季在埃及整個工廠的替代燃料使用率接近20%。因此,這種結合使我們能夠生產水泥,而不會因為該國能源短缺而受到任何干擾或任何負面影響。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions). Mike Betts, Jefferies.
(操作員說明)。麥克貝茨,傑弗里斯。
Mike Betts - Analyst
Mike Betts - Analyst
Yes, I had two questions, if I could. The first one I think was on slide 9, where you talk about Northern Europe and you talk about sequential pricing. It's at the bottom there, minus 3% cement sequentially Q2 versus Q1, minus 4% ready mix, minus 7% aggregate. Is that all mix or is it really being -- so it given the weakness in volume I fear that there may have been some real weakness in pricing, so maybe just a little bit more on that.
是的,如果可以的話,我有兩個問題。我認為第一個是在幻燈片 9 上,您在其中談論了北歐,並且談論了順序定價。它位於底部,與第一季相比,第二季水泥減少了 3%,預拌混凝土減少了 4%,骨材減少了 7%。這是所有的混合還是真的 - 所以考慮到成交量的疲軟,我擔心定價可能存在一些真正的疲軟,所以也許只是多一點。
Are you talking about country mix, are you talking about product mix? How confident are you that there's no real underlying deterioration there?
你在談論國家組合,你在談論產品組合嗎?您對那裡沒有真正的潛在惡化有多大信心?
And then secondly, and I have to admit I was hoping I would be a bit later on the questions because I've only just see the data on the website but you've changed the volumes down for Mexico, the guidance to the year. You reduced it for the US. I'm still trying to work out how you managed to keep the group volumes constant, so maybe you could summarize that in terms of cement. Thank you.
其次,我必須承認我希望我能晚一點回答問題,因為我只看到網站上的數據,但你已經降低了墨西哥的數量,今年的指導。你為美國減少了它。我仍在努力弄清楚你們如何設法保持團體數量恆定,所以也許你可以用水泥來總結這一點。謝謝。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
On prices, Mike, it's definitely a mix effect. Because as we mentioned, the volumes in the UK grew less than volumes from Germany and Poland and as you know, the UK has the highest prices, so there is an impact because of the mix in these regions. It's basically mix.
麥克,在價格方面,這絕對是混合效應。因為正如我們所提到的,英國的銷售成長低於德國和波蘭的銷量,而且如您所知,英國的價格最高,因此這些地區的混合會產生影響。基本上是混合的。
Now versus first-quarter for instance in Poland, prices increased 2% and the UK and Germany were flat, so we can attribute that to mix.
與第一季相比,例如在波蘭,價格上漲了 2%,而英國和德國則持平,因此我們可以將其歸因於混合。
Mike Betts - Analyst
Mike Betts - Analyst
Okay, then my second question was the flat group volumes for cement guidance or plus 1%, which is what it was before, yet you've lowered the Mexican and the US numbers. Where is the offsetting increase? I guess I could go through it number by number but overall where is the increase?
好的,那麼我的第二個問題是水泥指導的固定集團銷量或加 1%,這就是之前的情況,但您已經降低了墨西哥和美國的數字。抵銷增量在哪裡?我想我可以逐一查看它,但總體而言,增長在哪裡?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Can you repeat the question -- particularly in the case of Mexico, I'm not sure I got the --.
你能重複一下這個問題嗎——特別是在墨西哥的情況下,我不確定我是否明白——。
Mike Betts - Analyst
Mike Betts - Analyst
Yes, I've just seen the slide, I think it 26 on the website, which shows the new volume forecast by country. And as you said, you have left the overall group volume at plus 1% but you have significantly lowered the Mexican forecast and the US.
是的,我剛剛看到了幻燈片,我認為是網站上的 26,它顯示了按國家/地區劃分的新銷售預測。正如您所說,您將集團整體銷售保持在+1%,但您顯著降低了墨西哥和美國的預測。
I'm struggling to see, though, where you've raised the forecast in other countries to offset it, for example I'm looking at Spain was minus 17% is now minus 25%. So I'm trying to work out which countries are offsetting the weaker outlook particularly for Mexico and for the US in terms of the 2013 cement volumes.
不過,我很難看出你們是否提高了其他國家的預測來抵消這一影響,例如,我看到西班牙的成長率為負 17%,現在為負 25%。因此,我試圖找出哪些國家正在抵消 2013 年水泥產量疲軟的前景,尤其是墨西哥和美國。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Yes, maybe I can start with that. Mike, we were very pleasantly surprised with what happened in the UK, so in the second quarter as you saw our volumes were up close to about 9%. And so on back of that, we improved our guidance from minus 2% to flattish guidance, so that was very helpful.
是的,也許我可以從這個開始。麥克,我們對英國發生的事情感到非常驚喜,所以在第二季度,正如你所看到的,我們的銷量增長了接近 9% 左右。在此基礎上,我們將指導值從負 2% 提高到持平指導值,這非常有幫助。
And then of course in Egypt, on back of the performance in the second quarter, we improved our guidance from the minus 7% to the minus 2%. And then in the Philippines, we also improved the performance from plus 4% to plus 5%. We feel reasonably comfortable that those changes plus -- and of course in the US, both in the US and in Mexico we are talking about ranges. So we think at the end of the day the combination of our expectations from Mexico US plus the increases in these other countries we should be flat in our volume performance for cement on a consolidated basis.
當然,在埃及,基於第二季的表現,我們將指導值從負 7% 提高到了負 2%。然後在菲律賓,我們也將性能從+4%提高到了+5%。我們對這些變化感到相當滿意——當然,在美國,在美國和墨西哥,我們談論的是範圍。因此,我們認為,最終,綜合我們對墨西哥、美國的預期以及其他國家的成長,我們的水泥銷售表現在綜合基礎上應該持平。
Mike Betts - Analyst
Mike Betts - Analyst
And in Mexico, because obviously you need quite a catch up in H2 in Mexico to meet that guidance, that's primarily because of the lower base or is the infrastructure program getting off or what's behind the confidence that you move from minus 7%, minus 8% I think it was in Mexico to down flat to low single digits? Is it the base effect?
在墨西哥,顯然你需要在墨西哥下半年大幅趕上才能達到這一指導,這主要是因為基數較低,或者是基礎設施計劃正在實施,或者是你從-7%轉向-8%的信心背後的原因% 我認為墨西哥的房價持平至低個位數?是基礎效應嗎?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
I think that the same way we have communicated in our first-quarter call and now this time on the impact, on the government expenditure, clearly by now we can see a material change regarding expenditures. So in the case of infrastructure, for instance, with information we have available, April and May it has increased 22%, so that's very material.
我認為,就像我們在第一季電話會議中以及現在這次對政府支出的影響進行溝通一樣,現在我們顯然可以看到支出方面的重大變化。以基礎設施為例,根據我們現有的信息,4 月和 5 月增長了 22%,所以這是非常重要的。
And in the case -- an internal indicator which is our ready mix contracted volume for infrastructure, since March it has increased 14%, which is an increase of about 80% when compared to last December.
在這個案例中,一個內部指標是我們的基礎設施預拌合約量,自 3 月以來增加了 14%,與去年 12 月相比增加了約 80%。
Then we have the announcement of the national infrastructure plan and some of those projects are already projects that are developed as projects and they are having some traction. And that program as you know is about 50% higher than the previous program, the one under Calderon's term. This is in nominal terms.
然後我們宣布了國家基礎設施計劃,其中一些項目已經是作為項目開發的項目,並且具有一定的吸引力。如您所知,該計劃比卡爾德隆任期內的上一個計劃高出約 50%。這是名義上的。
Then you have the impact in housing. Again with information available April and May compared to the previous quarter, there are like 20% additional mortgages. So this is also a very positive indicator and we think that the industrial and the commercial sector in Mexico should continue behaving similar to previous quarters, meaning growth of [10%].
然後你就會對住房產生影響。同樣,根據 4 月和 5 月的可用信息,與上一季相比,抵押貸款增加了 20% 左右。因此,這也是一個非常積極的指標,我們認為墨西哥的工業和商業部門應該繼續表現與前幾季類似,這意味著成長[10%]。
So all combined regardless of the reduction of volumes during the first half, that makes us believe that in the second half will be much, much better.
因此,無論上半年銷售量有所減少,所有這些綜合起來,這讓我們相信下半年會好得多。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maybe, Mike, if I can add also if you do the arithmetic, we need about a mid single-digit growth in the second half year-on-year in volumes and to get somewhere in the middle of the range of our guidance. To your point about basis comparison, if you take a look at average amount of shipments per day in the second half last year, they were definitely weaker than the first half, so not only we feel that due to all of the reasons that Fernando mentioned but also the growth that is needed to get to our guidance is relatively manageable and the base comparison is going to be a little bit easier.
也許,麥克,如果我可以補充一下,如果你算一下的話,我們需要下半年銷量同比增長大約個位數,並達到我們指導範圍的中間位置。就您對基礎比較的觀點而言,如果您看一下去年下半年的平均每天發貨量,它們肯定弱於上半年,所以不僅我們認為由於費爾南多提到的所有原因而且達到我們的指導所需的成長也是相對可控的,並且基礎比較會更容易一些。
Mike Betts - Analyst
Mike Betts - Analyst
Okay, understood. Thank you very much.
好的,明白了。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
We will now take a question from the webcast.
我們現在將回答網路廣播中的一個問題。
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
The question from the webcast is from Phil Dumas from Geode Capital. The question is any update on plans to address the convertible note maturities?
網路直播中的問題來自 Geode Capital 的 Phil Dumas。問題是解決可轉換票據到期問題的計劃有任何更新嗎?
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
We have not changed our minds. I think what we've communicated so far is that we did request authorization from our shareholders in the last AGM. In order for us to be able to execute any type of transaction, but this is the first convertible is due in March 15, so we still have the time to see how it goes and act or react if needed. Our base case is that those convertibles are going to be converted, but anyhow, we do continue monitoring the situation, market conditions, but we have not changed our plans regarding those convertibles. Operator?
我們沒有改變主意。我認為到目前為止我們所傳達的訊息是,我們確實在上次年度股東大會上請求了股東的授權。為了讓我們能夠執行任何類型的交易,但這是第一筆可轉換債券將於 3 月 15 日到期,因此我們仍然有時間了解它的進展情況,並在需要時採取行動或做出反應。我們的基本情況是這些可轉換債券將被轉換,但無論如何,我們確實會繼續監控情況和市場狀況,但我們沒有改變這些可轉換債券的計劃。操作員?
Operator
Operator
We have time for one last question, Santiago Perez, Credit Suisse.
我們有時間回答最後一個問題,瑞士信貸銀行的聖地牙哥·佩雷斯。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
This is actually Vanessa. Santiago had to step out. We just had probably one last question just to be very clear about the taxes. What kind of legal proceedings have to be sold to get to your guidance of a relatively stable cash tax payments for the full year?
這實際上是凡妮莎。聖地亞哥不得不退出。我們可能只有最後一個問題,只是為了非常清楚稅收。必須通過什麼樣的法律程序才能獲得全年相對穩定的現金納稅指引?
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
Maher Al-Haffar - VP of Corporation Communications, Public Affairs and IR
We have, as you know, we have had a change in tax legislation, which was retroactive in Mexico. We have been going through legal proceedings to address that. We will probably get resolution one way or another by sometime in the fourth quarter of this year.
如您所知,我們對稅收立法進行了更改,該更改在墨西哥具有追溯力。我們一直在透過法律程序來解決這個問題。我們可能會在今年第四季的某個時候以某種方式得到解決方案。
Now we have gotten almost a unanimous opinion from our legal counsel giving us the very strong comfort that the conclusion should be in the way that we understand it, which is favorable to us at the end of the day.
現在我們已經從我們的法律顧問那裡得到了幾乎一致的意見,這給了我們非常強烈的安慰,即結論應該是我們理解的方式,這最終對我們有利。
It is difficult to comment on more details as this is an ongoing legal process, so it's difficult for us to do that. But we do expect -- we are quite comfortable in believing that we should get a resolution in our favor sometime in the fourth quarter. And to the extent that happens, then we should be comfortably meeting our guidance for the tax bill for this year.
由於這是一個正在進行的法律程序,因此很難對更多細節發表評論,因此我們很難這樣做。但我們確實預計 - 我們非常相信我們應該在第四季度的某個時候達成對我們有利的解決方案。如果發生這種情況,那麼我們應該可以輕鬆地滿足今年稅收法案的指導。
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Vanessa Quiroga - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Fernando Gonzalez for closing remarks.
謝謝。我現在想將電話轉交給費爾南多·岡薩雷斯進行總結發言。
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Fernando Gonzalez - EVP of Finance and Administration
Thank you very much. In closing, I would like to thank you all for your time and attention and we look forward to your continued participation in CEMEX. Please feel free to contact us directly or visit our website at any time. Thank you and good day.
非常感謝。最後,我要感謝大家的時間和關注,我們期待您繼續參與 CEMEX。請隨時直接與我們聯繫或造訪我們的網站。謝謝你,美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Thank you for participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
謝謝。感謝您參加今天的會議。演示到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。