Clearway Energy Inc (CWEN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Clearway Energy, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎您參加 Clearway Energy, Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指令）

I would now like to hand the call over to President and CEO of Clearway Energy, Inc., Chris Sotos. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話交給 Clearway Energy, Inc. 總裁兼執行長 Chris Sotos。請繼續。

Good morning. We first thank you for taking the time to join Clearway Energy, Inc.'s third quarter call. Joining me this morning are Akil Marsh, Director of Investor Relations; Sarah Rubenstein, CFO; and Craig Cornelius, President and CEO of Clearway Energy, our sponsor. Craig will be available for the Q&A portion of our presentation.

早安.首先感謝您抽空參加 Clearway Energy, Inc. 的第三季電話會議。今天上午與我一起參加的是投資者關係總監 Akil Marsh；莎拉‧魯賓斯坦（Sarah Rubenstein），財務長；以及我們的贊助商 Clearway Energy 總裁兼執行長 Craig Cornelius。克雷格 (Craig) 將參與我們演講的問答部分。

Before we begin, I'd like to quickly take note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on the assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of today. Actual results may differ materially. Please review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings.

在我們開始之前，我想快速指出，今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們認為截至今天合理的假設。實際結果可能存在重大差異。請查看今天演示中的安全港以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險因素。

In addition, we refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation.

此外，我們參考了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。 有關我們的非公認會計準則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計準則指標的對帳的信息，請參閱今天的簡報。

Turning to Page 4. Given recent market volatility, we're willing to change our customer investor call format, take a step back to reinforce the strength of our platform that sets us apart from competitors and the opportunities ahead of us. As such, first and foremost, critical to the yieldco model is the difference of the yieldcos cost of capital compared to that of a development company. This difference has oscillated over time, and despite the current market volatility, our sponsor's historic return targets and recently disclosed development IRR targets by other market participants demonstrate that CWEN's cost of capital remains well below the target returns of a pure development, preserving this relationship and benefits for both parties. In addition, sponsors hold approximately $1.8 billion of CWEN shares, ensuring alignment of sponsor interest or the long-term interest of CWEN.

翻到第 4 頁。因此，首先也是最重要的，收益公司模式的關鍵在於收益公司資本成本與開發公司的資本成本之間的差異。這種差異隨著時間的推移而波動，儘管目前市場波動，但我們發起人的歷史回報目標和其他市場參與者最近披露的開發內部收益率目標表明，CWEN 的資本成本仍遠低於純開發項目的目標回報，從而維持了這種關係，並且對雙方都有好處。此外，贊助商持有價值約 18 億美元的 CWEN 股份，確保贊助商的利益或 CWEN 的長期利益保持一致。

The second ingredient for a successful yieldco, the strong supply of assets with long-term contracts. While the current volatile capital markets have created some dislocation in the near term, the fundamental strength of renewable assets in terms of transitioning the U.S. away from fossil fuels to green lower-cost energy has not changed. The demand to transition away from fossil fuels is not diminished. Climate change is a continual challenge for the globe shared by companies, government's goals of producing their carbon footprint while the benefits of the IRA are also still intact.

收益型公司成功的第二個要素是擁有充足長期合約的資產供應。儘管當前動盪的資本市場在短期內造成了一些混亂，但再生資產在美國從化石燃料轉型為綠色低成本能源的根本優勢並沒有改變。擺脫化石燃料的訴求並未減少。氣候變遷是全球面臨的持續挑戰，企業和政府的目標是產生碳足跡，同時 IRA 的益處仍然完好無損。

Most importantly, competitively priced renewable generation when compared with the current grid cost of energy, all drive a compelling long-term growth story for CWEN. As part of these ingredients, we had Clearway work to optimize these larger macro elements in combination with a very straightforward corporate financing model that has underpinned no complex convertible or contingent equity financings and CWEN's capital structure and no need for external capital to complete our DPS objectives through 2026.

最重要的是，與當前電網能源成本相比，具有價格競爭力的再生能源發電將推動 CWEN 實現引人注目的長期成長。作為這些要素的一部分，我們讓Clearway 致力於優化這些較大的宏觀要素，並結合非常直接的企業融資模式，該模式不支撐複雜的可轉換或或有股權融資和CWEN 的資本結構，也不需要外部資本來完成我們的DPS 目標到 2026 年。

Pulling many of these elements together, CWEN, in working with the sponsors, has negotiated increased CAFD yield to 10% on drop-down assets of approximately $230 million of corporate capital deployment that we will discuss later. Importantly, we reaffirm our continued line of sight for $2.15 of CAFD per share. There's no need for external corporate capital. And our consistent message over the past several years of visibility achieved a high range of our 5% to 8% long-term target.

綜合上述諸多因素，CWEN 與贊助商合作，透過協商將 CAFD 收益率提高到 10%，下拉資產約為 2.3 億美元的企業資本部署，我們將在後面討論。重要的是，我們重申我們將繼續瞄準每股 2.15 美元的 CAFD。不需要外部公司資本。我們在過去幾年中始終如一的訊息表明，我們的長期目標已經達到了 5% 至 8% 的高水準。

And looking beyond 2026, in addition to the strong long-term goal development demand we described earlier, CWEN also benefits having strategic natural gas assets in California that are critical to assisting that state and transitioning away from fossil fuels. As evidence of this value, we have recently been awarded an additional approximate 1.5 years of contracted RA value, a strong pricing on a portion of our fleet. This pricing provides a strong foundation for CWEN to continue its growth trajectory in 2027 and beyond, in line with this long-term targets.

展望 2026 年以後，除了我們先前描述的強勁的長期目標發展需求之外，CWEN 還受益於在加州擁有戰略性天然氣資產，這對於協助該州擺脫化石燃料至關重要。為了證明這一價值，我們最近獲得了額外約 1.5 年的合約 RA 價值，這對我們部分機隊來說是一個強有力的定價。這項定價為 CWEN 繼續保持 2027 年及以後的成長軌跡並實現長期目標奠定了堅實的基礎。

In summary, despite challenging market conditions, the key elements that underpin a strong yieldco still exists: significant cost of capital differences between the yieldco and the sponsor, strong development spend and demand for renewable assets with long-term contracts, combined with a straightforward capital structure that translates into transparent growth.

綜上所述，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但支撐強大收益型公司的關鍵因素仍然存在：收益型公司與發起人之間存在顯著的資本成本差異、強勁的開發支出和對具有長期合約的可再生資產的需求，再加上簡單的資本轉化為透明成長的結構。

Turning to Slide 5. Critical to the success of the yieldco model is a strong sponsorship relationship. One key element of this is a cost of capital difference between the yieldco and development. Given the return requirements of GIP and Total Energies as well as other recent examples of publicly disclosed development returns, that relationship continues to hold between Clearway Group and CWEN, even in the increased cost of capital environment we're operating in. Clearway Group, which owns 85 million total shares of CWEN, representing approximately $1.8 billion of value, also receives approximately $130 million of dividends per year that helps fund and produce development activities to ensure a strong supply of drop down assets in the future.

前往投影片 5。其中一個關鍵因素是收益公司和開發商之間的資本成本差異。鑑於 GIP 和 Total Energies 的回報要求以及其他近期公開揭露的開發回報案例，即使在我們營運的資本成本增加的環境中，Clearway Group 和 CWEN 之間的這種關係仍然保持。 CWEN 股票，價值約18 億美元，每年還獲得約1.3 億美元的股息，用於資助和開展開發活動，確保未來下拉資產的充足供應。

Importantly, Clearway Group and their sponsors do not have any IDR or other special arrangements to drive value from the relationship with CWEN as the increase in CWEN's stock price, dividends paid and margin on development assets that aligns value optimation for all entities. As evidenced in this relationship, Clearway Group has agreed to improve the targeted yields on over $230 million of CWEN investments from approximately 9% to 9.5% CAFD yield to 10%, siding additional accretion on our redeployed thermal capital and reaffirming our line of sight growth through 2026. Clearway Group continues to invest heavily in development, in line with line of sight drop-down growth through 2026 as well as flexibility for timing of drop-downs thereafter.

重要的是，Clearway Group 及其發起人沒有任何IDR 或其他特殊安排來從與CWEN 的關係中獲得價值，因為CWEN 的股價、支付的股息和開發資產利潤率的增加使所有實體的價值優化保持一致。從這項合作關係可以看出，Clearway Group 已同意將超過2.3 億美元的CWEN 投資的目標收益率從約9% 提高到9.5% 的CAFD 收益率，達到10%，從而為我們重新部署的熱力資本帶來額外的增值，並重申我們的成長前景到 2026 年。

Slide 6 provides an overview of CEG's 29 gigawatts at development pipeline, which has grown substantially in previous years. This pipeline, which is an important source of growth for CWEN, continues to receive strong sponsor capital deployment to advanced development projects that are well diversified among technology types and compatible with CWEN's growth and diversification objectives. The significant sponsor support has been demonstrated, allowing the platform to grow by over 2 gigawatts in the last 12 months and to near double the last 2 years. The continued importance of scale in this industry, it's critical to managing through volatile periods and being able to leverage a large development and operational platform to weather the storms.

幻燈片 6 概述了 CEG 的 29 千兆瓦開發管道，該管道在前幾年大幅增長。該通路是 CWEN 的重要成長源泉，繼續獲得贊助商的強力資本部署，用於技術類型多樣化且與 CWEN 的成長和多樣化目標相容的先進開發項目。在贊助商大力支持下，該平台在過去 12 個月內增長了 2 千兆瓦以上，比過去 2 年增長了近一倍。規模在這個行業中仍然非常重要，它對於管理動盪時期以及能夠利用大型開發和營運平台來渡過難關至關重要。

To this point, Clearway Group has been able to procure cost-effective supply agreements, should enable domestic content qualification and/or reduce interconnection time line risk for the 2025 to 2027 pipeline. In conclusion, the Clearway Group development platform has the benefit of leading scale in its class, is meeting sponsors to ensure supply of dropdown assets for CWEN in the future.

到目前為止，Clearway Group 已經能夠達成具有成本效益的供應協議，從而能夠實現國內內容資格和/或降低 2025 年至 2027 年管道的互連時間線風險。綜上所述，Clearway Group 開發平台具有同類產品中領先規模的優勢，正在與贊助商會面，以確保未來為 CWEN 提供下拉資產。

Turning to Page 7. During this period of market dislocation, there have been a number of questions around long-term challenges in development of renewable assets with contracts. Although a rapid increase in interest rates since May has created some headwinds in the near term and as all stakeholders have had adjusted capital cost conditions, we did not see this as a long-term impediment to the growth of renewables at the U.S. As a backdrop, renewable industry benefits from a variety of supportive federal and state policies as well as corporate ESG goals that drive long-term demand for renewable assets that are not as sensitive to price increases.

翻到第 7 頁。雖然自 5 月以來利率快速上昇在短期內造成了一些阻力，並且所有利益相關者都已調整了資本成本條件，但我們並不認為這會成為美國再生能源成長的長期障礙。受益於各種支持​​性聯邦和州政策以及企業ESG 目標，這些目標推動了對不太受價格上漲敏感的可再生資產的長期需求。

In addition, renewable PPAs are still competitively priced versus nonrenewable power options. It's not as though an increased cost of capital only impacts renewable assets, it impacts all electricity-generating assets. Importantly, regardless of ESG or RPS standards, renewable assets produce electricity at prices that are competitive with other forms of generation, so are an attractive source of energy and economic terms as well. That being said, all of us within the Clearway enterprise are cognizant of the increased capital cost that impacts all stakeholders during the period of readjustment and PPA pricing: long-term asset earners like CWEN, tax equity, non-recourse debt providers, OEM suppliers, developers and PPA offtakers alike.

此外，與不可再生能源選擇相比，再生能源 PPA 的價格仍然具有競爭力。資本成本的增加不僅會影響再生資產，還會影響所有發電資產。重要的是，無論 ESG 或 RPS 標準如何，再生能源資產產生的電力價格都與其他形式的發電具有競爭力，因此在能源和經濟方面也是具有吸引力的來源。話雖如此，我們Clearway 企業內的所有人都意識到，在調整和PPA 定價期間，資本成本的增加會影響所有利益相關者：CWEN 等長期資產收益者、稅收權益、無追索權債務提供者、OEM 供應商、開發商和 PPA 承購商都一樣。

We cannot forecast precisely how long it may take PPA prices to increase. We can say the scale becomes ever more important during this period as it is critical to be able to develop quality, cost-effective projects. And we at CWEN take significant comfort in having Clearway Energy Group as one of the largest developers in the U.S., backed by GIP and Total Energies, 2 of the largest companies in the respective industries, to manage to this period. Simply stated, all of us within the Clearway enterprise recognize that we are in a period that require adjustments by all stakeholders. But we are in a more competitively advantaged position than most to manage (inaudible).

我們無法準確預測 PP​​A 價格需要多長時間才能上漲。我們可以說，在這段時期，規模變得越來越重要，因為它對於開發高品質、具成本效益的專案至關重要。在 CWEN，我們非常榮幸能有 Clearway Energy Group 作為美國最大的開發商之一，並得到 GIP 和 Total Energies（各自行業中最大的兩家公司）的支持，共同管理這段時期。簡而言之，Clearway 企業內的所有人都意識到，我們正處於一個需要所有利害關係人做出改變的時代。但我們在管理方面比大多數公司更具競爭優勢（聽不清楚）。

Turning to Slide 8. An additional ingredient for success in the long term is a straightforward capital allocation and financing strategy. As we've discussed through the years, we have a simple capital structure with no complex financing to require a CWEN common equity conversion or contingent issuance, no need for external capital either to meet our DPS growth through 2026. We are also insulated from current interest rate volatility with 99% of our consolidated debt fixed, utilization of interest rate swaps and no corporate maturities through 2028. CWEN also naturally amortizes over $350 billion of nonrecourse debt per year as our debt amortization schedule is designed to limit risk around PPA renewal in different energy market environments, as was recently demonstrated with our 3 natural gas assets that became merchant in 2023.

轉到投影片 8。正如我們多年來所討論的那樣，我們的資本結構簡單，沒有複雜的融資要求進行 CWEN 普通股轉換或或有發行，也不需要外部資本來滿足我們到 2026 年的 DPS 增長。利率波動，99% 的合併債務固定，利用利率互換，到2028 年沒有公司到期債務。 CWEN 每年還自然攤銷超過3500 億美元的無追索權債務，因為我們的債務攤銷計劃旨在旨在限制PPA 續約風險不同的能源市場環境，正如我們最近在 2023 年成為商業用途的 3 個天然氣資產所展示的那樣。

All of this leads to an overall conservative capital structure that correlates to a BB/Ba2 rating has been maintained since 2016 and through a variety of challenges and market headwinds. CWEN's disciplined financial management has provided a strong foundation for sustainable growth through a variety of market conditions.

所有這些都導致​​了整體保守的資本結構，與 BB/Ba2 評級相關，自 2016 年以來一直保持這種結構，儘管經歷了各種挑戰和市場阻力。 CWEN 嚴格的財務管理為公司在各種市場條件下實現永續成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

To provide further disclosure around our sponsor support and our latest drop-down offers, please turn to Page 9. We are excited to announce that we have a commitment to purchase Texas Solar Nova for approximately $40 million of capital and a 10% CAFD. These projects consist of over 450 megawatts of solar located in Kent County, Texas, and are underpinned by power contracts that are 18 years in duration with creditworthy counterparts. In addition, discussions with Clearway Energy Group, we have been able to come to agreement to modify Dan's Mountain's CAFD yield to approximately 10% or approximately 9%, benefited from a new drop-down 25 offer of 3 solar assets and our approximate CAFD yield of 10% compared to the 9.5% of targeted previously.

如需進一步了解我們的贊助商支援和最新的下拉優惠，請翻至第 9 頁。這些項目包括位於德克薩斯州肯特縣的超過 450 兆瓦的太陽能項目，並與信譽良好的合作夥伴簽訂了為期 18 年的電力合約。此外，透過與Clearway Energy Group 的討論，我們已達成協議，將Dan's Mountain 的CAFD 收益率修改為約10% 或約9%，這得益於3 項太陽能資產的新下拉25 報價以及我們的近似CAFD收益率10%，而之前的目標是 9.5%。

These high-quality assets are significantly weighted towards solar and storage generation with fully contracted node settle unit contingent contracts to reduce volatility from the CWEN fleet. These drop-downs complete the allocation of the excess proceeds from the Thermal sales close in May of 2022 and most recently and increased CAFD yields, demonstrating the long-term alignment of interest between CWEN and sponsors to continue to drive value for shareholders.

這些優質資產主要專注於太陽能和儲能發電，並已簽訂完全合約的節點結算單位或有合同，以降低 CWEN 機組的波動性。這些下拉清單完成了 2022 年 5 月 Thermal 銷售結束的超額收益的分配以及最近增加的 CAFD 收益率，表明 CWEN 和讚助商之間的長期利益一致，以繼續為股東創造價值。

Turning to Page 10. This is a graph that should be familiar to you. There's a lack of hard growth visibility through 2026. Starting on the left side of the page is our prior $420 million CAFD outlook that CWEN will achieve when the majority of the drop-down '24 assets are operational on a full year basis. The second column is a reduction in CAFD of $10 million are updating to reflect a variety of factors: revisions to our P50 given wind resources in 2023, increased insurance costs, inflation as well as other factors.

翻到第 10 頁 這是一個您應該熟悉的圖表。到 2026 年，缺乏硬性成長前景。第二列是 CAFD 的減少，為 1000 萬美元，正在更新以反映多種因素：考慮到 2023 年的風力資源、保險成本的增加、通貨膨脹以及其他因素，我們對 P50 進行了修訂。

The third column represents a $5 million CAFD increase our investments in TSN as well as the incremental contribution to the Cedro Hill Repowering prior to 2026, summing up to our updated pro forma CAFD outlook of $415 million. This, when added to approximately $20 million of CAFD, dropped down '25 discussed previously, that are updated line of sight CAFD of approximately $435 million. Importantly, we are maintaining the $2.15 CAFD per share guidance through 2026 that we have discussed previously. We believe the ability to maintain our long-term CAFD line of sight and our growth trajectory speaks to the strength of the CWEN platform.

第三欄代表了我們對 TSN 的投資增加了 500 萬美元，以及在 2026 年之前對 Cedro Hill Repowering 的增量貢獻，總計達到我們更新的 4.15 億美元的 CAFD 預測。這一金額加上先前討論過的約 2000 萬美元的 CAFD（下降了 '25），即更新後的視線 CAFD 約為 4.35 億美元。重要的是，我們將維持先前討論過的每股 2.15 美元 CAFD 指導價至 2026 年。我們相信，維持長期 CAFD 視線和成長軌蹟的能力證明了 CWEN 平台的實力。

Turning to Slide 11. Slide 11 provides a summary of CWEN's contracted and open positions in the resource adequacy market through the next 4 years. We currently have the benefit of approximately 100% of our capacity contracted through 2025, 87% contracted through 2026 and now with 42% contracted in 2027. As discussed throughout the year, CWEN participated in several RFP auctions and bilateral discussions. As a result, it was able to secure 2 contracts for approximately an additional 1.5 years at strong pricing compared to previous contracts. While we cannot disclose the pricing of these contracts due to confidentiality provisions, we can say that the pricing achieved on these contracts with the extrapolated current uncontracted megawatts in 2027 and beyond, that would drive growth in 2027 with the low end of our 5% to 8% long-term CAFD per share growth target without requiring any other drop-downs of our external capital.

前往投影片 11。目前，我們的約100% 產能已簽約至2025 年，87% 產能已簽約至2026 年，目前有42% 產能已簽約至2027 年。雙邊討論。因此，與先前的合約相比，它能夠以強勁的價格獲得 2 份額外約 1.5 年的合約。雖然由於保密條款，我們無法披露這些合約的定價，但我們可以說，這些合約的定價與2027 年及以後推算的當前未簽約兆瓦數相符，這將推動2027 年的增長，最低增長率為5 % 至8%的長期CAFD每股成長目標，無需任何其他外部資本的削減。

This is an important source of potential CAFD growth in the future, and while we do the extension of our RA contracts and strong pricing as an excellent signal of this growth in the future, we feel it is too early to declare a victory and incorporate this higher pricing into our 2027 and beyond view.

這是未來 CAFD 成長的重要潛在來源，雖然我們確實將 RA 合約的延長和強勁的定價視為未來成長的良好信號，但我們認為現在宣布勝利並將其納入還為時過早我們預計2027 年及以後的價格將會上漲。

Now I'll turn it over to Sarah. Sarah?

現在我將把話題交給莎拉。莎拉？

Thanks, Chris. On Slide 13, we provide an overview of our financial update that included CAFD of $156 million for the third quarter of 2023. Based on results occurred to date as well as forecasted activity through the balance of 2023, we are reiterating our 2023 full year CAFD guidance range of $330 million to $350 million. We are also introducing guidance for 2024 of $395 million of full year CAFD, reflecting certain onetime maintenance costs along with timing of gross investment since run rate CAFD contributions are achieved after 2024. We will provide further detail in a moment.

謝謝，克里斯。在第 13 張投影片中，我們概述了我們的財務更新，其中包括 2023 年第三季的 1.56 億美元 CAFD。指導範圍為3.3億美元至3.5億美元。我們也推出了2024 年全年3.95 億美元CAFD 指導，反映了某些一次性維護成本以及總投資的時間安排，因為運行率CAFD 貢獻是在2024 年後實現的。資訊.

Our dividend per share growth outlook for 2024 remains aligned to our long term growth objectives. For the fourth quarter, we are announcing a dividend increase 2% to $0.3964 per share, which decreased to $1.5856 divident per share on an annualized basis. For 2023, this reflects full year dividend growth of year as compared to 2022 of 8% which is distinct to our long-term growth market. In addition, we are announcing a dividend per share gross target for 2024 of 7% in line with our gross target in the upper part of the 5% to 8% range in 2026.

我們對 2024 年每股股息成長的預期與我們的長期成長目標保持一致。第四季度，我們宣布股息增加 2% 至每股 0.3964 美元，以年率計算，每股股息降至 1.5856 美元。對於 2023 年而言，這反映了全年股息與 2022 年相比成長 8%，這與我們的長期成長市場不同。此外，我們宣布 2024 年每股股利總目標為 7%，與 2026 年 5% 至 8% 上限的總目標一致。

Turning to Slide 14, we highlight CAFD of $156 million and adjusted EBITDA of $323 million for the third quarter of 2023. Compared to our expectations, the conventional energy from this margin was approximately $11 million due to milder temperatures in California. Despite lower energy margins, the conventional facility has strong availability and provided resource advocacy as expected. Solar generation was also in line to internal expectations for the third quarter, while wind generation with the overall CWEN's wind (inaudible) is lower than anticipated in August and September.

轉到投影片14，我們重點介紹了2023 年第三季的1.56 億美元CAFD 和3.23 億美元的調整後EBITDA。 1100 萬美元。儘管能源利潤率較低，但常規設施可用性強，並按預期提供了資源倡議。第三季度，太陽能發電量也符合內部預期，而 8 月和 9 月的風力發電量（CWEN 的整體風能（聽不清楚））低於預期。

Third quarter CAFD was also to a lesser degree affected by (inaudible). Year-to-date CAFD at $289 million in the third quarter of 2023 continues to reflect the previously reported historic low wind production and lower-than-expected merchant energy margins with extensional facilities through the second quarter of 2023. The company continues to maintain its full year CAFD guidance range of $330 million to $360 million. However, we anticipate that 2023 full year results will fall with the lower end of the guidance range. The full year CAFD guidance range reflects potential wind and solar variability for the second half of 2023 and sensitivity for conventional gross margin, the majority of which was reflected in the third quarter results, since the fourth quarter represents a smaller portion of the projected results as noted in our seasonality forecast by '23.

第三季的 CAFD 也受到了（聽不清楚）的影響，但影響程度較小。 2023 年第三季度，年初至今的CAFD 為2.89 億美元，繼續反映出先前報告的歷史低風電產量和低於預期的商業能源利潤率，以及到2023 年第二季度的擴建設施。其全年CAFD指引範圍為3.3億美元至3.6億美元。不過，我們預計 2023 年全年業績將降至指引範圍的低階。全年CAFD 指引範圍反映了2023 年下半年風能和太陽能的潛在變化以及對傳統能源毛利率的敏感性，其中大部分反映在第三季度的業績中，因為第四季度的業績在預計業績中所佔比例較小，因為在我們 23 年的季節性預測中已經提到。

Despite the challenges impacting 2023 CAFD, the company remains well positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet and pro forma credit metrics in line with target ratings. 99% of consolidated long-term debt has a fixed interest cost, either through fixed rate debt or through fixed rate swap. Due to the proceeds from the sale of Thermal, there continues to be no external capital fees to define the line of sight growth fee or dividends per share growth objective through 2026.

儘管面臨挑戰，2023 CAFD 仍認為該公司仍具有良好的成長優勢，擁有強勁的資產負債表和符合目標評級的預測信用指標。 99%的合併長期債務都有固定的利息成本，要麼透過固定利率債務，要麼透過固定利率互換。由於出售 Thermal 所得的收益，到 2026 年，仍無需支付外部資本費用來確定視線增長費用或每股股息增長目標。

Moving to Slide 15. We are establishing our 2024 CAFD guidance at $395 million. As we walk our 2024 CAFD guidance to our updated pro forma CAFD outlook, do note that we have deferred the timing of the Capistrano debt refinancing and so after 2024. Given our sizable cash balance and liquidity position, we have flexibility to be prudent on the timing of this refinancing and the incremental principal and interest statements are not in our 2024 CAFD guidance. However, they are reflected in the updated pro forma CAFD outlook.

轉到投影片 15。隨著我們將2024 年CAFD 指導轉向更新後的CAFD 預測展望，請注意，我們已推遲Capistrano 債務再融資的時間，因此推遲到2024 年之後。地謹慎對待此次再融資的時間安排以及增量本金和利息報表不在我們的 2024 年 CAFD 指引中。然而，它們反映在更新的預測 CAFD 前景中。

In addition, the $395 million of CAFD anticipated for 2024 reflects one-time maintenance costs and related outage time for required maintenance upgrade at specific legacy wind sites. These maintenance upgrades are required to return certain facilities to normal availability levels and are expected to have a onetime impact to 2024 CAFD of $15 million. In addition, our pro forma CAFD outlook of $415 million reflects full year CAFD for all committed growth investments, including Cedar Creek, Victory Pass, Arica, Rosie BESS and Texas Solar Nova. The full year contribution of these growth investments is expected to be approximately $15 million of incremental CAFD as compared to the portion of CAFD realized by these investments in 2024.

此外，預計 2024 年的 3.95 億美元 CAFD 反映了特定傳統風電場所需維護升級的一次性維護成本和相關停機時間。這些維護升級是使某些設施恢復正常可用性水準所必需的，預計將對 2024 年 CAFD 產生 1500 萬美元的一次性影響。此外，我們預計的 4.15 億美元 CAFD 前景反映了所有承諾的成長投資的全年 CAFD，包括 Cedar Creek、Victory Pass、Arica、Rosie BESS 和 Texas Solar Nova。與 2024 年這些投資實現的 CAFD 部分相比，這些成長投資的全年貢獻預計將達到約 1,500 萬美元的增量 CAFD。

This is based on the anticipated timing of investements or project COD, the majority of which are anticipated in mid-2024. Also reflected in the $395 million of 2024 full year CAFD guidance, along with the updated pro forma CAFD outlook, our updated P50 renewable production estimates as well as certain cost and decreases primarily driven client solutions. These amounts are individually immaterial, and therefore, we have not quantified them in detail. In addition, merchant energy margins for the Conventional facility are used to be materially in line with long-term assumptions previously provided, and no material change has been noted either in the full year CAFD guidance for 2024 or in the updated pro forma CAFD outlook. We continue to estimate long-term merchant energy margin in the $1 to $1.50 per KW month breach noted sensitivity at $20 million of CAFD per $1 per kilowatt increase (inaudible). Based on these estimates, we arrive at our 2024 full year CAFD guidance of $395 million and our updated pro forma CAFD outlook of $416 million, which along with anticipated growth investments, using the remaining Thermal sale proceeds, support our long-term CAFD and dividend per share growth target.

這是基於預期的投資時間或專案 COD，其中大部分預計在 2024 年中期。這也反映在 2024 年全年 3.95 億美元的 CAFD 指引中，以​​及更新的 CAFD 預測、我們更新的 P50 再生能源生產估算以及主要由客戶解決方案驅動的某些成本和減少。這些金額單獨來看並不重要，因此，我們沒有詳細量化它們。此外，常規設施的商業能源利潤率與先前提供的長期假設基本一致，且 2024 年全年 CAFD 指引或更新的預測 CAFD 展望中均未發現重大變化。我們繼續估計長期商業能源利潤率在每千瓦月 1 美元至 1.50 美元之間，違反率敏感度為每千瓦時 1 美元增加 2000 萬美元的 CAFD（聽不清楚）。根據這些估計，我們得出了 2024 年全年 CAFD 指引值為 3.95 億美元，最新預測 CAFD 前景為 4.16 億美元，加上預期的成長投資，使用剩餘的熱能銷售收益，支持我們的長期 CAFD 和股息每股成長目標。

Now I will turn it back to Chris for closing remarks.

現在我請克里斯作最後發言。

Thank you, Sarah. Turning to Page 17. While this has been challenging from a CAFD generation perspective, we are maintaining our revised CAFD range for guidance range for 2023. More importantly, during this difficult period, the strength of our platform allows us to reaffirm and continue with our consistently held near and long-term objectives, which is DPS growth of 8% in 2023. We are reaffirming our DPS growth objectives at the upper end of our long-term growth target in 2026. We continue to proceed support from our sponsors and enhanced CAFD yields for the next contemplated drop-downs and the additional contract length in our natural gas (inaudible) places. We're getting traction around visibility beyond 2026, achieved both in line with our long-term CAFD targets. .

謝謝你，莎拉。翻到第17 頁。使我們能夠重申並繼續我們的一致地堅持短期和長期目標，即2023 年每股盈利增長8%。支持，並加強CAFD 收益為下一次預期的下降和我們天然氣（聽不清楚）場所的額外合約期限。我們在 2026 年以後的可見性方面取得了進展，這與我們的長期 CAFD 目標一致。 。

While I had intended to be able to provide you with a more precise CAFD per share growth outlook for 2027 and beyond on this call, there are certain variables we bring more clarity on. While the resource adequacy contracting pricing environment is very constructive, we'd like to see how contracting plays out (inaudible) positions in 2027 and beyond. Additionally, as stated before, we and our sponsor have flexibility and timing of drop-downs for growth beyond 2026. The prudent on timing and structuring drop-downs (inaudible) growth beyond 2026 and compete for the capital market environment to stay applies.

雖然我本來打算在這次電話會議上為您提供 2027 年及以後更精確的 CAFD 每股成長前景，但有些變數我們無法更清楚地說明。雖然資源充足率承包定價環境非常有利，但我們希望看到承包在 2027 年及以後如何發揮作用（聽不清楚）。此外，如前所述，我們和我們的發起人可以靈活地安排2026 年以後的增長下調時間。保持增長。

Operator, open the lines for questions, please.

接線員，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

I wanted to just get a little bit of a sense here. Just what are you looking for to provide an update here? I mean just to pick up where you just left off here. I mean what specific parameters? Is it California specifically? Or is it other drop-downs? And then I have a few specific follow-ups if you can. And maybe you can give us a little bit clearer sense of what you're seeing in California as well.

我只是想在這裡了解一點情況。您到底想在這裡提供什麼更新資訊？我的意思是從你剛才離開的地方繼續下去。我指的是什麼具體參數？特別是加州嗎？還是其他下拉式選單？如果可以的話，我還有一些具體的後續問題。也許您可以讓我們更清楚地了解您在加州看到的情況。

Sure. I think in California, and once again, unfortunately we can't disclose the price due to confidentiality. But the contracts that we had signed previously to kind of be able to give guidance through '26, we're seeing prices stronger than that weighted those contracts back in the past. And so for us, we feel very good about the ability to extend those contracts by about 1.5 years on those 2 assets into 2027. But as you can see from our charts and the like, we're only about 42% of that capacity hedged in 2027, which makes it difficult to say, here's exactly how CAFD works, and here's what we're going to target. So I think what we tried to talk about on the call was that if you keep kind of the other variables held constant, if you were to move that 2027 contract that we were able to secure and said we were able to contract the corresponding 58% open position at those rates, we could see being able to hit the low end of the long-term CAFD guidance through '27.

當然。我認為是在加州，遺憾的是，由於保密原因我們不能透露價格。但是，我們之前簽署的那些合約可以為 26 年提供指導，而我們看到的價格比過去的合約價格更高。因此，對於我們來說，我們對這兩項資產的合約延長約 1.5 年至 2027 年感到非常滿意。 2027 年，這就很難說了，CAFD 的具體工作方式以及我們的目標是什麼。因此，我認為我們在電話會議上試圖討論的是，如果你保持其他變量保持不變，如果你要移動我們能夠獲得的 2027 年合同，並表示我們能夠簽訂相應的 58%按照這些利率保持倉位，我們可以看到能夠在27 年達到長期CAFD 指導的低端。

With regard to drop-downs, Julien, which I think was kind of your second question, there, obviously, that's 3 years in the future. We're at a market that is very -- now it's very volatile currently. So for us, we kind of looked at the strong sponsor support we've received in our most recent drop-down discussions. And then we'll kind of see where the market goes over time to move those CAFD deals to what makes sense in the future. But I think right now, we're kind of very confident and happy with our ability to reaffirm [$2.15], continue our guidance in terms of being able to hit the upper end of the range through '26. And we're starting to see some good green shoots for '27 and beyond, just not as tight as we would have liked it when we talked at this time last year.

關於下拉式選單，朱利安，我認為這是你的第二個問題，顯然，那是未來 3 年的事情。我們目前所處的市場非常不穩定。因此對我們來說，我們在最近的下拉式討論中關注了我們所獲得的強有力的贊助商支持。然後我們將會看到市場隨著時間的推移走向何處，從而將這些 CAFD 交易推向未來有意義的方向。但我認為現在，我們對重申 [2.15 美元] 的能力非常有信心和高興，繼續我們的指導方針，能夠在 26 年之前達到該範圍的上限。我們開始看到27年及以後的一些良好復甦跡象，只是不如我們去年此時談論的那麼強勁。

Now with that said, let me just nitpick a little bit here. Instead of using a greater than, now you're using at tilde on the $2.15. Can you explain a little bit of what you're seeing? It sounds like a slight reduction in confidence and that seems despite the higher yield on the dropdown at 10%. So in theory, I would have thought that estimate revisions would have been higher. And then maybe related to that, you tell me if it is or not, it looks like updated pro forma CAFD here goes to $2.05 from $2.08, so down $0.03 there. Again, I don't mean to nitpick too much here, but I'm curious on the signaling and what's driving a little bit of a reduction, if you will, despite the higher drop-down yield environment.

話雖如此，現在讓我在這裡挑剔一點。現在您不再使用大於號，而是使用 $2.15 上的波浪號。你能解釋一下你所看到的情況嗎？聽起來信心似乎略有下降，儘管收益率上升了 10%，但似乎還是下降了。因此從理論上來說，我認為估計修訂值會更高。然後可能與此相關，你告訴我是否如此，看起來更新後的預期 CAFD 從 2.08 美元漲到了 2.05 美元，所以下降了 0.03 美元。再說一次，我並不是想在這裡吹毛求疵，但我很好奇信號以及儘管收益率環境下降幅度較大，但是什麼導致了收益率略有下降。

No, no concern, Julien. There's a reason we try to map it out all for you. So the question, yes, welcome the question. It's not as though we have less confidence in the $2.15. It's just before like we are giving you a point estimate 3 years out. So we might be $0.01 high or low in terms of routing and the like. The real driver behind the reduction from what you saw before from kind of a $440 million to $435 million is really around the $10 million that we took as a result of the P50 results we saw in 2023.

不，不用擔心，朱利安。我們盡力為您規劃這一切是有原因的。所以這個問題，是的，歡迎提問。這並不意味著我們對 2.15 美元的信心不足。這就像我們給你 3 年後的一個點估計。因此，在路由等方面，我們的成本可能會高出或低 0.01 美元。從之前看到的 4.4 億美元減少到 4.35 億美元的真正驅動因素實際上是我們根據 2023 年的 P50 結果獲得的 1000 萬美元。

Insurance is a little bit higher and other costs, just the main source of that deviation that you're mentioning from what maybe you saw previously disclosed. Obviously, kind of we're not happy with that. But as we talked about during this year, we incorporate actual performance into our estimates. We try not to just be theoretical. We actually take into account what's going on. 2023, stating the obvious, has not been a good year from wind resource or solar resource perspective. So we've taken into account going forward to make sure we can kind of tighten down our math.

保險費和其他費用稍高一些，這是您提到的與之前披露的內容有偏差的主要原因。顯然，我們對此並不滿意。但正如我們今年所討論的那樣，我們將實際表現納入了我們的估算中。我們努力不只停留在理論層面。我們確實考慮到了正在發生的事情。顯而易見，從風能資源或太陽能資源的角度來看，2023 年並不是一個好年。因此，我們已經考慮採取進一步措施，以確保我們能夠更嚴格地進行數學計算。

It doesn't sound like there's anything too specific there from what I can tell.

據我所知，這聽起來不像是有什麼太具體的事情。

Correct.

正確的。

And then maybe just it seems like -- and then the drop-down here, the wind drop-down, do you mind talking about it? It seems like there's a higher yield, but a higher valuation -- or sorry, I think I said that right.

然後也許只是看起來像 - 然後這裡的下拉菜單，風下拉菜單，你介意談論它嗎？看起來收益率更高，但估值也更高——或者抱歉，我想我說對了。

Yes. There's more capital just because of how it's structured at the end. For us, we're looking to really target the overall deployment. For us, Julien, a lot of people kind of count megawatts. We're much more concerned about how much capital are we deploying at good quality projects with good accretive CAFD yields. So for us, to your point, the way it was finally structured resulted in a little bit higher capital deployment, but because it's also at a higher capital yield, I'll take it.

是的。只是因為最後的結構決定了資本的更多。對我們來說，我們真正希望的是實現整體部署。朱利安，對我們來說，很多人都是以兆瓦來計算的。我們更關心的是我們在具有良好增值 CAFD 收益的優質專案中部署了多少資本。因此對於我們來說，正如您所說，它最終的結構方式導致了略高的資本配置，但由於它的資本收益率也更高，所以我會接受它。

I appreciate your patience this morning and good luck. Hopefully, next year or next quarter, we'll get an update at last, as you nail things down?

我感謝您今天早上的耐心並祝您好運。希望到明年或下個季度，我們最終能得到最新消息，以便您能確定一切？

Well, I think, once again, Julien, those RA contracts, they take time to basically -- right? We're always engaged in bilateral discussions. The RFPs, as you know, kind of happened in June or a little bit before during the year. We get our awards in November. So I don't think there will necessarily be that many major updates between now and, let's say, the February call. I think, for us, as we continue to see if this market environment settles down and we can have more clarity around what drop-downs may look like, in addition to more RA megawatts being contracted. That will kind of give more clarity around 2027.

嗯，朱利安，我再說一次，那些 RA 合約基本上需要時間——對吧？我們一直在進行雙邊討論。如您所知，RFP 大概是在 6 月或稍早一些的時候發布的。我們將在十一月獲得獎項。因此，我認為從現在到二月的電話會議之間不一定會有那麼多重大更新。我認為，對我們來說，隨著我們繼續觀察這種市場環境是否穩定下來，我們可以更清楚地了解下降的情況，以及更多的 RA 兆瓦的簽約情況。這將為 2027 年左右提供更清晰的認識。

Our next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski of Seaport.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport 的 Angie Storozynski。

I just wanted to say, well played. This is how we do with, basically. You pace yourself with the dividend growth, you just live within your means. And I'm hopeful that the stock will reflect this reality versus what we're seeing at other yieldcos. Now as far as the growth is concerned, obviously, you have a sponsor that is supportive and willing to adjust the capital yield for the current interest rate environment. But how about maybe organic growth? Any sort of repowering or expansions of existing sites, something that you could do on your own?

我只想說，打得好。基本上，這就是我們的處理方式。你可以隨著股利的成長而調整自己的節奏，量入為出即可。我希望該股票能夠反映這一現實，而不是像我們在其他收益型公司看到的那樣。現在就成長而言，顯然你有一個支持並願意根據當前利率環境調整資本收益率的贊助商。但有機成長又如何呢？對現有場地進行任何形式的改造或擴建，這些都是您可以自己完成的事情嗎？

Sure. We look at that all the time, Angie. And I think what we've talked about is Cedro Hill is a repowering. So we have some of that built already. I think for us and a little bit further discussion about the volatile capital market environment that you referenced, we kind of really need to see where we need to source new capital. As part of my prepared comments, we've kind of worked through all of the excess capital that we received as part of our Thermal disposition.

當然。安吉，我們一直在關注這一點。我認為我們討論的是 Cedro Hill 的再造。我們已經建造了一些。我認為對於我們來說，以及關於您所提到的動盪的資本市場環境的進一步討論，我們確實需要了解我們需要從哪裡獲得新的資本。作為我準備好的評論的一部分，我們已經處理了我們在熱能處置中收到的所有多餘資本。

And so for us, in looking at repowerings and kind of Craig's team and looking at what PPA can you renegotiate, what are turbine prices and the like, there is some of that organic growth, but as I commented previously, it's not like we have 2 gigawatts that can be repowered in the next 2 years. Our main source of organic growth is really in that RA pricing. I think, for us, given the hedges that we did before, in order to contract through the middle of 2026, that's probably where you have your main organic CAFD generator is depending on where those RA prices go in 2027 and beyond.

因此，對於我們來說，在研究重新供電和 Craig 的團隊以及研究可以重新談判的 PPA、渦輪機價格等時，有一些有機增長，但正如我之前評論的那樣，我們並沒有未來兩年內可重新供電2千兆瓦。我們有機成長的主要來源實際上是 RA 定價。我認為，對於我們來說，考慮到我們之前所做的對沖，為了在 2026 年中期簽訂合同，這可能是您主要的有機 CAFD 生成器的位置，具體取決於 2027 年及以後 RA 價格的走向。

And then changing topics. Obviously, '23 has been a challenging year for actually a number of assets. But the results for the Thermal assets were weaker than expected. Now how much of that weakness or lessons learned have you incorporated in your '24 guidance on CAFD?

然後再轉移話題。顯然，2023年對許多資產來說都是充滿挑戰的一年。但熱力資產的績效弱於預期。現在，您在 24 年 CAFD 指導中吸收了多少弱點或經驗教訓？

I think hopefully a lot. From our perspective, we're much more in line in our 2024 guidance with the upper end of that $1 to $1.50 we talked about, long-term energy gross margin. Obviously, given when we gave guidance in November of '22 for 2023, yes, as you're well familiar, the markets were much stronger for what were expected sparks that didn't show up in several of the months that we were looking for. So for us, we're materially kind of in the upper end of the range at lower $1, $1.50 -- I mean upper of the $1, $1.50 that we have for long-term EGM guidance. So to your point, we're being more conservative for full year '24 than we were for partial year '23.

我認為充滿希望。從我們的角度來看，我們 2024 年的預期更符合我們所謂的 1 美元至 1.50 美元的長期能源毛利率的上限。顯然，考慮到我們在 2022 年 11 月給出的 2023 年指引，是的，正如你熟悉的那樣，市場表現要強勁得多，因為我們期待的幾個月裡並沒有出現預期的火花。因此對於我們來說，我們實質上處於該範圍的上限，即 1 美元至 1.50 美元的低點 - 我的意思是，高於我們的長期 EGM 指導價 1 美元至 1.50 美元。所以正如您所說，我們對 24 年全年的預測比對 23 年部分年度的預測更加保守。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Jarvi of CIBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 的馬克賈維 (Mark Jarvi)。

As you think about expanding the time horizon for growth, Thermal proceeds fully deployed now, obviously balance sheet funding clarity is really important in today's market. So how do you think about as you extend that runway when you think about future drops, communicating the funding plan in terms of how much clarity you can give? And I guess, how prescriptive it could be in terms of how you match funding with asset growth?

當您考慮擴大成長的時間範圍時，熱能收益現已完全部署，顯然資產負債表資金清晰度在當今市場非常重要。那麼，當您考慮未來的資金投入時，您如何延長這條跑道，如何就您能給出多大的清晰度來傳達資金計劃？我想，就如何將融資與資產成長相匹配而言，它能起到多大指導作用？

Sure. I think we've always been pretty prescriptive in how we viewed it. We have a undrawn revolver currently with significant liquidity underneath it. So we had to fund something we could on a temporary basis. But I think how we'd fund it is in line with our long-term view. At about 4x to 4.5x would be a corporate debt number of the corporate capital, the remaining being equity, obviously using any excess cash we have in the system first.

當然。我認為我們對此的看法一直是相當規範的。我們目前有一張未提取的循環信用證，其下有大量流動資金。因此，我們必須臨時籌集一些資金。但我認為我們如何為其提供資金符合我們的長期觀點。大約 4 倍到 4.5 倍是公司資本的公司債務數字，剩餘部分是股權，顯然首先使用我們系統中任何多餘的現金。

So certainly, I think we'd look to deviate from that long-term funding model that has been successful in a wide variety. We may need to warehouse some facilities depending on where the volatility is for a period of time. I think, for us, it wouldn't deviate from our long-term funding model that has worked over a number of years.

因此，我當然認為，我們會尋求偏離在各個領域都取得成功的長期融資模式。根據一段時間內的波動情況，我們可能需要倉儲一些設施。我認為，對我們來說，它不會偏離我們多年來一直行之有效的長期融資模式。

So, I guess, you'd be okay with -- if you saw, say, a couple of million dollar funding gap for equity to hit your targets and, say, it's sort of a bit TBD in terms of the sources, you'd be fine sort of laying that out there. And, I guess, you saw the need for external equity, would you be open to things like an ATM or something like that as you march forward?

所以，我想，如果你看到，比如說，股權融資存在幾百萬美元的資金缺口，無法達到你的目標，而且，在資金來源方面還有待確定，那麼你把它擺在那裡就好了。而且，我想，您看到了對外部股權的需求，那麼，在您前進的過程中，您是否願意接受像 ATM 或類似的東西呢？

I mean we used ATMs before, which we think are a very effective equity funding mechanic. We've done smaller kind of issuances as well. So I think we do things very consistently with how we have in the past. I wouldn't just spend any deviations.

我的意思是我們以前使用過 ATM，我們認為這是一個非常有效的股權融資機制。我們也進行過小規模的發行。所以我認為我們所做的事情與過去的做法非常一致。我不會隨便花任何偏差。

I just think that maybe kind of to where your question is going, given how volatile things are currently, we may seek to kind of use our revolver more depending on size to hold facilities until kind of markets settle down and take a much more measured approach to getting that long-term capital deployment given current volatility.

我只是覺得，也許就像你問的這個問題一樣，考慮到目前形勢的動盪，我們可能會根據規模更多地使用我們的左輪手槍來持有設施，直到市場穩定下來，並採取更加慎重的做法在當前的波動性下獲得長期資本部署。

And then just on the conventional units, as you continue to operate them, as you see these RA processes, the contracting process play out, sort of any updated thoughts in terms of ways to optimize them from a commercial strategy? I'm just curious in terms of the amount of capacity you secured into 2027. Could you have gotten more? Was it just a trade-off with price? Just kind of understanding the depth of the market and opportunities you're seeing right now in terms of contracting.

然後就傳統單位而言，隨著您繼續操作它們，當您看到這些 RA 流程、承包流程的展開時，從商業策略的角度對它們進行優化的方式有什麼更新的想法嗎？我只是好奇你們到 2027 年能保證多少產能。這僅僅是價格的權衡嗎？只是了解市場的深度以及您現在在簽約方面看到的機會。

Got it. Yes. It is very focused on price. Yes, apologies if you already know all this, but you kind of bid in on an auction basis and kind of see what you get awarded. We typically give kind of 1 and 1.5-years bids, 3-year bids, a combination of different price points to kind of see what the customer wants. The customer at the end chooses what price they're looking for and tenor. So to your point, it's not as though we could really optimize that conversation because it is a well-attended auction. But we provide a number of price points as part of our submission. And at the end of the day, the customer fixed the price point that they thought made the most sense.

知道了。是的。它非常注重價格。是的，如果您已經知道所有這些，那麼我很抱歉，但您可以以拍賣的方式進行競標，然後看看您會得到什麼獎勵。我們通常會給出 1 年期、1.5 年期、3 年期的出價以及不同價格點的組合，以了解客戶的需求。最後，客戶選擇他們想要的價格和期限。所以正如你所說，我們並不能真正優化這次對話，因為這是一場參與人數眾多的拍賣會。但我們在提交的過程中提供了一些價格點。最後，顧客確定了他們認為最合理的價格點。

If you could do sort of a retrospective look at how you did most recently, do you think there was an opportunity to clear more capacity as you think forward in the next processes?

如果您可以回顧一下最近的表現，您是否認為在考慮下一個流程時有機會釋放更多產能？

I don't think there's the ability to clear more just because what -- not to [cheek] your question, what's cleared was what's accepted. You kind of don't really know exactly what demand there is on the other side. So not to cheek your question, it's a little bit opaque for me to say directly what the number is.

我不認為有能力清除更多內容，只是因為－－不是[迴避]你的問題，清除的內容就是被接受的內容。你似乎不太清楚對方到底有何需求。所以，不要迴避你的問題，我直接說出這個數字有點難懂。

And just last question for me. Maybe for Craig, your view in terms of tax equity transferability is playing out, how that sort of impacts where you think actually returns could be for projects. And ultimately, I guess, we're -- and maybe it comes back to Chris, in terms of drop-down CAFD yields potential under sort of a transfer ability scheme on funding?

這是我的最後一個問題。也許對於 Craig 來說，您對稅收股權可轉讓性的看法正在發揮作用，您認為這種影響實際上會對專案產生什麼回報。最終，我想，我們——也許這又回到了克里斯的話題上，就某種資金轉移能力計劃下 CAFD 收益潛力的下降而言？

I'll kind of answer the last part and then, Craig, will let you answer kind of the first part of the question. So in terms of what it means for a CAFD yield, I think that's really in our all-in CAFD yield that we'd get. I think, Mark, if your question is if we're doing things at a 10% CAFD yield, now would that lead to a 14% CAFD yield? I don't think that's the right interpretation. I think basically all of the components will need to be required because it passes through.

我將回答最後一部分，然後，克雷格，讓你回答問題的第一部分。因此，就其對 CAFD 收益的意義而言，我認為這實際上就是我們將獲得的全部 CAFD 收益。我想，馬克，如果你的問題是，如果我們以 10% 的 CAFD 收益率行事，那麼這是否會導致 14% 的 CAFD 收益率？我認為這不是正確的解釋。我認為基本上所有組件都需要，因為它會通過。

As we talked a little bit on the call, the PPA price is affected by the transferability of PTCs, right? It kind of all has to work together in a chain. So it's not as though that PTC transferability will lead to an economic rent or significantly above market CAFD yield simply due to that. But, Craig, I'll let you answer the first part of the question.

正如我們在電話中談到的那樣，PPA 價格受到 PTC 可轉讓性的影響，對嗎？所有這些都必須以鏈的形式協同工作。因此，PTC 可轉讓性並不會僅僅因此而帶來經濟租金或遠高於市場 CAFD 收益率。但是，克雷格，我讓你回答問題的第一部分。

Yes. Sure. Well, first, the market is really still taking shape and becoming organized. As you may very well know, both the banks that traditionally provided fully integrated tax equity solutions that would both monetize tax credits and depreciation are playing roles to provide sponsors like us solutions to monetize depreciation while also looking to serve as clearing houses for the disposition and monetization of tax credits that projects produced there. They're certainly an important part of organizing this market. There are numerous other channels that are looking to establish themselves as more direct conduits to buyers of tax credits. And the market structures for how everything from indemnities to timing of payments take place are still forming and stabilizing.

是的。當然。首先，市場確實仍在形成和組織中。您可能非常清楚，傳統上提供完全一體化稅收公平解決方案的銀行既可以將稅收抵免和折舊貨幣化，也扮演著為像我們這樣的贊助商提供貨幣化折舊解決方案的角色，同時也希望充當處置和清算所。他們無疑是組織這個市場的重要組成部分。還有許多其他管道正在尋求將自己打造成稅收抵免買家的更直接的管道。從賠償到支付時間等各個方面的市場結構仍在形成和穩定中。

And in that environment, as a sponsor that has a strong balance sheet, which we do, we want to make sure that we make smart choices about how and when we fix the structures that we'll employ. Other sponsors may not be in a position to wait. But in the 6 months since guidance was first issued about how that transferability market would take shape, we've seen the structures and the depth of the market really improve in favor of projects. And we expect that will continue. So when I look out to the future, my hope is that this market will really do many of the things that were hoped for when transferability was incorporated into the text of the statute by deepening the range of options that projects have to monetize tax credits. And what we eventually, as an enterprise, will want to do is to try to come up with structures that we find most efficient for dispositioning the depreciation benefits that the projects we create produce.

在這種環境下，作為擁有強大資產負債表的贊助商，我們希望確保我們在如何以及何時修復我們將採用的結構方面做出明智的選擇。其他贊助商可能沒有能力等待。但自從首次發布關於可轉讓市場如何形成的指導意見以來的六個月裡，我們看到市場結構和深度確實有所改善，有利於專案的發展。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。因此，當我展望未來時，我希望這個市場能夠真正實現人們所希望的許多事情，即在將可轉讓性納入法規文本後，透過深化項目將稅收抵免貨幣化的選擇範圍。作為一家企業，我們最終想要做的是嘗試提出最有效的結構來處理我們所創建的專案所產生的折舊收益。

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Kaye of Oppenheimer & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的諾亞·凱。

I appreciate all the incremental details and disclosures and, frankly, the reframing of the platform here. Points well taken. Called out the Capistrano refinancing timing. I just wanted to ask about the project level debt in the portfolio. It does appear like there's a fair amount of debt coming due over the next few years for some of these projects at the project level. How are you thinking about any potential additional refinancings? Or are all these basically going to be paid off the term?

我欣賞所有的增量細節和披露，以及坦率地說，這裡平台的重新構建。觀點很正確。指出了 Capistrano 再融資的時機。我只是想詢問一下投資組合中的項目級債務。從專案層面來看，未來幾年其中一些專案確實會有相當數量的債務到期。您如何考慮任何潛在的額外再融資？或者說這些基本上都是按期付清的？

Sure. It depends on the market, to be fair to your question, but I do think that we should be in good shape from a refinancing perspective. So the next 2 large project refinancings, what's referred to as NIMH solar in 2024, I believe Buckthorn in '25 or '26. So I think is Buckthorn is backed by -- still is about a 20-year PPA still underneath it. So we have quite a bit of length there to be able to refinance. The NIMH solar assets, once again, that's kind of September of 2024. So from our view, that should be able to be refinanced. Not to minimize the question, we don't have a lot of concern about near-term nonrecourse assets needing to be refinanced.

當然。公平地回答你的問題，這取決於市場，但我確實認為從再融資的角度來看我們應該處於良好狀態。因此，接下來的兩個大型專案再融資，即所謂的 NIMH 太陽能，將在 2024 年進行，我相信 Buckthorn 將在 2025 年或 2026 年進行。因此，我認為 Buckthorn 仍有大約 20 年的 PPA 作為後盾。因此，我們擁有相當長的時間進行再融資。 NIMH 太陽能資產，再一次，是在 2024 年 9 月。並非為了淡化這個問題，我們也不太擔心短期內需要再融資的無追索權資產。

That doesn't impact the pro forma CAFD outlook?

這不會影響預計的 CAFD 前景嗎？

If the interest rates are drastically different, it may move it around. But keep in mind, NIMH solar is about $148 million if I recall correctly. So 100 to 200 basis points move overall is $3 million, not to minimize $3 million, but it's not a major driver.

如果利率差異很大，它可能會改變。但請記住，如果我沒記錯的話，NIMH 太陽能的成本約為 1.48 億美元。因此，100 到 200 個基點的變動總體上是 300 萬美元，雖然不是要最小化 300 萬美元，但這不是一個主要驅動因素。

And just the key point here, right, is that your refi risk both at the corporate level and at the project level is very minimal for the next several years.

這裡的關鍵點是，未來幾年，無論是公司層級或是專案層面的再融資風險都非常小。

Correct. I'm not saying it's 0, but yes, there is not 10. It's maybe 3 depending on where you go.

正確的。我不是說是 0，但確實沒有 10。

I appreciate adjusting the P50 expectations. Does that generally apply to how you look at future drop-downs or acquisitions as well? I mean I'm sure there's some degree of regional resource specificity here to the adjustments. But just talk to us a little bit about how you model in expectations for P50 going forward and whether that's changed at all.

我很欣賞調整 P50 的預期。這通常是否也適用於您看待未來下拉清單或收購的方式？我的意思是，我確信這裡的調整具有一定程度的區域資源特異性。但請與我們稍微談談您對 P50 未來發展的預期，以及這是否有所改變。

Sure. Step one, just for way of background, we always ask for an additional return on wind assets versus solar to take into account that volatility. So part one note to your question is we view wind as a riskier asset in general because of P50 volatility and typically look for a higher IRR or CAFD yield or both when we negotiate those, just for way of backdrop. The other part is, we haven't seen anything that we need to change how we model our P50. Those are based upon long-term rates. But I think as we've talked about in previous calls, once you're kind of getting through 5 years, we try to take a much more actual approach on assets than kind of what a statistical model may say.

當然。第一步，僅作為背景介紹，我們總是要求對風能資產而非太陽能資產進行額外的回報，以將這種波動性考慮在內。因此，對你的問題的第一部分說明是，由於P50 的波動性，我們認為風能總體上是一種風險較高的資產，並且在協商時通常會尋求更高的IRR 或CAFD 收益率或兩者兼而有之，這只是一個背景。另一部分是，我們還沒有發現需要改變 P50 建模方式的任何東西。這些是基於長期利率。但我認為，正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的那樣，一旦度過 5 年，我們就會嘗試採取比統計模型所說的更實際的資產方法。

We're trying to be much more empirical and kind of use the most relevant near-term data set as we adjust and blend the 2. So for us, to your point, while you're looking at future drop-downs or looking at other acquisitions, we try to take into account those deviations between what might be a 30-year, let's say, fiscal model and what we're seeing in the past 5 years, try to add on a premium for wind in certain regions that are showing more volatility. But once again, we're trying to get that as tight as we can. We take recent events into account, that's when we easily see the revision. But it really is trying to be comprehensive between, yes, not overestimating what's happened in the past 2 years either to make decisions either.

我們試圖更加實證，在調整和融合兩者時使用最相關的近期資料集。年的財政模型和過去5 年的情況之間的偏差，嘗試在某些地區增加風電溢價。但我們再次努力使其盡可能緊密。我們考慮到最近發生的事件，那時我們很容易看到修訂。但它確實是試圖做到全面，是的，不要高估過去兩年發生的事情，也不要做決定。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Clare of ROTH MKM .

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Justin Clare。

So first off, I just want to ask about the 2024 guide. It looks like about a $15 million impact to the guide as a result of change in the expectation from growth investments. I was wondering if you could just provide a little bit more detail on the project timing and what led to that reduction for 2024.

所以首先，我只想問一下有關 2024 年指南的問題。由於成長投資預期的變化，該指南似乎受到了約 1500 萬美元的影響。我想知道您是否可以提供一些有關專案時間表的更多細節，以及導致 2024 年減少的原因。

Sure. I'll let Sarah address it. But I think, for us, we took a look at our 2023 results and obviously we're not happy with them. And part of that, as we talked about during the year is due to P50 generation, some of it's due to availability. So for us, we kind of take a comprehensive look at our overall portfolio. And yes, I'll let Sarah kind of reflect anything she wants to, but that's really the basis of it.

當然。我會讓莎拉解決這個問題。但我認為，對我們來說，我們看了 2023 年的業績，顯然我們對結果並不滿意。正如我們今年所討論的，部分原因在於 P50 的產生，部分原因在於可用性。因此對我們來說，我們會全面審視我們的整體投資組合。是的，我會讓莎拉表達任何她想表達的意思，但這確實是基礎。

Yes. And just to clarify, were you asking about the $15 million of timing for growth investments?

是的。只是為了澄清一下，你問的是 1,500 萬美元成長投資的時間安排嗎？

Yes, exactly. Just what led to that? Because it looks like it's impacting 2024 and then it's going to be contributor in probably 2025. So I just wanted to understand a bit more there.

是的，確實如此。究竟是什麼原因導致了這種情況？因為它看起來會影響 2024 年，然後可能會在 2025 年產生貢獻 所以我只是想多了解一點。

Yes. It's not a change in 2024. It's just a bridge between 2024 and our pro forma outlook, which is supposed to reflect sort of the full amount of CAFD once the drop-downs are sort of up and running and at their full CAFD amount. So it's really just a bridge item because we'll only be picking up a smaller portion of those in the 2024 guidance because of the timing of the drop-down or the project COD. So we'll have sort of like a fraction of that CAFD amount just in 2024. But by the time we get to the pro forma outlook, we'll have the full amount, and that difference is the $15 million.

是的。這不是 2024 年的變化。所以它實際上只是一個過渡項目，因為由於下拉時間或項目 COD，我們只會在 2024 年指引中選擇一小部分。因此，到 2024 年，我們將只獲得 CAFD 金額的一小部分。

And then just I was wondering for the projects that you have committed investments for and then for those that are identified as potential drop-down opportunities in 2024, 2025 here, can you talk about where you are in the process of securing the permit and the interconnection for these projects? I'm wondering if there's still risk there that those factors could cause delays, and just where you are in that process.

然後我想知道，對於您已承諾投資的項目，以及那些在 2024 年、2025 年被確定為潛在下降機會的項目，您能否談談您在獲得許可證的過程中處於什麼位置，以及這些項目的互聯互通？我想知道這些因素是否仍有可能導致延誤的風險，以及您處於這個流程的哪個階段。

Craig, if you wouldn't mind addressing that.

克雷格，如果你不介意的話，我可以談談這個問題。

Yes, sure. All of the projects that are listed on the set of committed or potential future drop-down opportunities have existing signed large generator interconnection agreements and have obtained all of the major permits that would influence their construction feasibility or schedule. So I think that you could consider the dates that are reflected here high confidence dates. They've also secured all of the revenue contracts that would be necessary for financial closing. We procured all the equipment for the projects and we are mature in the course of advancing financial structuring of the projects as well.

是的，當然。已承諾或潛在的未來下拉機會中列出的所有項目均已簽署大型發電機互連協議，並已獲得影響其建造可行性或進度的所有主要許可證。因此我認為您可以將這裡反映的日期視為高置信度日期。他們還獲得了財務結算所需的所有收入合約。我們為專案採購了所有設備，並且在推進專案財務結構的過程中也已經成熟。

Some of those projects now reflect dates that are later than the dates we would have hoped for 1 year ago, and those reflect observed experience from interconnecting utilities around the country and their ability to execute scope of large generator interconnection agreements and also time tables that have been observed as being elongated for the delivery of high-voltage equipment. And we've taken further actions to derisk time lines for these projects in particular but also other projects in our pipeline to address what's being observed in terms of interconnection time lines as well. So we think these are pretty derisked in terms of the execution timetable that's reflected on the page.

其中一些項目現在反映的日期比我們一年前希望的日期要晚，這些日期反映了全國各地互聯公用事業的經驗，以及它們執行大型發電機互聯協議範圍的能力，以及時間表據觀察，為了輸送高壓設備，電纜被拉長了。我們已經採取進一步行動，專門降低這些專案的時間表風險，同時也降低我們正在進行的其他專案的時間表風險，以解決在互連時間表方面觀察到的問題。因此，我們認為，從頁面上反映的執行時間表來看，這些風險相當低。

Our next question comes from the line of William Grippin of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的威廉‧格里平 (William Grippin)。

I guess just my first one here, just with the excess Thermal proceeds now fully allocated, could you speak to how you foresee sort of the future pacing of investment announcements? And maybe should we expect a quieter next few quarters with respect to announcements?

我想這是我的第一個問題，現在 Thermal 的超額收益已經完全分配，您能否談談您如何預見未來投資公告的節奏？也許我們應該預期未來幾季的公告發布會會比較平靜？

Yes, I think that question is if should we expect some large drop on announcement in the next 6 months? I doubt it. I think it's heavily conditioned upon how the capital markets settle down or not. But I think, to your question, because we don't talk -- in essence, CEG is incredibly busy by getting the gigawatts we talked about basically online in '24 and '25. Obviously, this will develop in while doing that. But I think at the end of the day, if your question is should we expect a large drop-down announcement here in the near term? It might be a little quiet for a while for the reasons we talked about.

是的，我認為問題是我們是否應該預期未來 6 個月內會大幅下降？我對此表示懷疑。我認為這在很大程度上取決於資本市場如何穩定下來。但我認為，對於你的問題，因為我們沒有談論——本質上，CEG 非常忙於在 24 年和 25 年基本上將我們談論的千兆瓦電力上線。顯然，這將在這樣做的同時發展。但我認為，最終你的問題是，我們是否應該期待近期大幅下降的公告？由於我們之前討論過的原因，可能會暫時安靜一點。

And so in that light, I mean, do you continue to view the conventional assets as core to the Clearway strategy? And maybe how are you thinking about potential opportunities to recycle those assets as you continue to contract the open capacity?

那麼從這個角度來看，您是否繼續將常規資產視為 Clearway 策略的核心？當您繼續收縮開放產能時，您如何考慮回收這些資產的潛在機會？

Sure. I think for us, obviously, we're willing to sell assets at what we think is a strong price. So if somebody offered us a good price for those assets, we'd look at that. However, it's always been part of our core strategy because it does provide diversification versus kind of simply wind and solar resource availability.

當然。我認為對我們來說，顯然我們願意以我們認為合理的價格出售資產。因此，如果有人為這些資產給出一個好價格，我們會考慮。然而，它一直是我們核心策略的一部分，因為它確實提供了多樣化，而不僅僅是風能和太陽能資源的可用性。

So for us, we think it's very beneficial, and we're obviously pretty bullish on what things will look like for, let's call it, through the end of the decade in those assets. So we give them is core. That being said, if someone offered us a price that we thought made sense, we'll show them we've been willing to transact on that in the past. And for us, we're pretty bullish through at least 2030.

因此對我們來說，我們認為這是非常有利的，而且我們顯然對這些資產在本世紀末的前景非常樂觀。所以我們給他們核心。話雖如此，如果有人給了我們一個我們認為合理的價格，我們就會向他們表明我們過去願意以此進行交易。對我們來說，至少到 2030 年我們還是相當樂觀的。

And just one last one for me. Could you elaborate a little bit on the one-time maintenance items in the wind portfolio? And is that in any way related to the Siemens turbines in the fleet?

對我來說，還有最後一個問題。您能否詳細說明一下風電組合中的一次性維護項目？這與機組中的西門子渦輪機有關係嗎？

Not specifically. That's a variety of assets, as I incorrectly answered the last question that somebody asked. Basically, that's a result of kind of -- also recognizing some of the weaknesses that affected our 2023 results. And saying, okay, how can we try to show what's a one-time maintenance per share. Some portion of that's the Siemens assets, but some of them aren't. So it's really just looking at the overall fleet and some of the challenges we faced in '23.

沒有特別說明。這是各種各樣的資產，正如我錯誤地回答了某人提出的最後一個問題一樣。基本上，這是一種結果——也認識到了影響我們 2023 年業績的一些弱點。然後說，好吧，我們如何展示每股的一次性維護費用是多少。其中一部分是西門子的資產，但一部分不是。因此，這實際上只是著眼於整個機隊和我們在23年面臨的一些挑戰。

I guess are you getting any sort of warranty reimbursements or any cost reimbursement and any kind for these efforts?

我想您是否因為這些努力而獲得了任何形式的保固補償或費用補償或其他形式的補償？

That's some of it. Overall, these things are negotiation, but that's the amount that we think we'll have to kind of net-net bring out during the year.

這就是其中的一部分。總體而言，這些都是談判的事情，但我們認為這是我們今年必須實現的淨額。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Chris Sotos for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想請克里斯·索托斯致閉幕詞。

I just wanted to thank everybody for attention on the call. I know this was a little bit longer than our typical calls. But really given kind of the volatility that we've seen, we want to provide you, as analysts or investors, with kind of a much more comprehensive view of where we see we are and where we think we're going. And I think while obviously there's a number of challenges in the capital markets, we're able to reiterate where we are for '24, our growth rate to '26 and that we're seeing kind of positive things even in this volatile environment in '27 and beyond. But more to come as we walk through '24. I appreciate everyone's support.

我只是想感謝大家對這次電話會議的關注。我知道這比我們平常的通話時間還要長一點。但考慮到我們已經看到的波動性，我們希望為身為分析師或投資者的您提供更全面的視角，讓您了解我們目前的狀況以及未來的發展方向。我認為，儘管資本市場顯然面臨著許多挑戰，但我們可以重申我們在 2024 年的狀況、到 2026 年的成長率，即使在這種動盪的環境中，我們也看到了一些積極的事情。及以後。但當我們走進24年時，還會有更多。我感謝大家的支持。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。