Covenant Logistics Group Inc (CVLG) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to today's Covenant Logistics Group first-quarter earnings release and investor conference call. Our host for today's call is Tripp Grant. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加今天 Covenant Logistics Group 第一季財報發布與投資人電話會議。我們今天的主持人是 Tripp Grant。（接線員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host. Mr. Grant, you may begin.

現在我想把電話交給今天的主持人。Grant 先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Covenant Logistics Group first-quarter 2026 conference call. As a reminder, this call will contain forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please review our SEC filings and most recent risk factors. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Our prepared comments and additional financial information are available on our website at www.covenantlogistics.com/investor.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Covenant Logistics Group 2026 年第一季電話會議。提醒各位，本次電話會議將包含《私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請查閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及最新的風險因素。我們不承擔公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述的義務。我們的預先準備發言稿與其他財務資訊可於網站 www.covenantlogistics.com/investor 取得。

Joining me today are CEO, David Parker; President, Paul Bunn; and COO, Dustin Koehl. Our first quarter was unique in that it included two of the worst and one of the best months we have experienced in the last three years. The trajectory was positive and has continued into April, leaving us with conviction that the change in the market is structural, not seasonal.

今天與我一同出席的有執行長 David Parker、總裁 Paul Bunn，以及營運長 Dustin Koehl。我們第一季相當特殊，因為其中包含了過去三年我們經歷過最差的兩個月份，以及最好的其中一個月份。整體走勢轉為正向，且已延續至 4 月，讓我們堅信市場的變化是結構性的，而非季節性的。

Our Expedited segment was most negatively impacted by both weather and fuel costs in the quarter, with improved rates and volumes in March and April, which we believe will continue to improve throughout the year, giving us plenty of operational leverage. Our new business pipeline for committed truckload capacity continued to strengthen in the quarter for both our Expedited and Dedicated fleets.

本季我們的加急（Expedited）事業部受天候與燃料成本影響最為顯著；3 月與 4 月的運價與運量已有改善，我們相信全年將持續好轉，為我們帶來充足的營運槓桿。我們在承諾式整車運能（committed truckload capacity）的新業務管線於本季持續增強，涵蓋加急與專屬（Dedicated）車隊。

Revenue trends during the first three weeks of April remained strong across all of our business units. In our view, we are finally feeling the impact of declining industry-wide driver and truck capacity and improving demand in certain segments and geographies. With that background, I will move on to the quarter's statistical review.

4 月前三週的營收趨勢在我們所有業務單位仍維持強勁。在我們看來，我們終於感受到全產業駕駛與卡車運能下降，以及特定細分市場與地區需求改善所帶來的影響。在此背景下，我將進入本季的統計回顧。

Year-over-year highlights for the quarter include consolidated freight revenue increased by 15.9% or approximately $38.7 million to $281.9 million, primarily as a result of the assets acquired in the fourth quarter of 2025 that are now being operated as Star Logistics Solutions. Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 11.5% to $9.6 million, primarily as a result of margin compression in our Expedited segment, which was particularly challenged with reduced utility from severe weather and higher net fuel costs.

本季年對年重點包括：合併貨運營收成長 15.9%，約增加 3,870 萬美元至 2.819 億美元，主要來自我們於 2025 年第四季收購的資產，目前以 Star Logistics Solutions 名義營運。合併調整後營業利益下滑 11.5% 至 960 萬美元，主要因加急事業部利潤率受壓縮；該事業部因惡劣天候導致可用性下降，以及淨燃料成本上升而面臨特別嚴峻的挑戰。

Our net indebtedness as of March 31 decreased by approximately $51 million to $245.3 million compared to December 31, 2025, yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 1.8 times and debt-to-capital ratio of 37.6%.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們的淨負債較 2025 年 12 月 31 日減少約 5,100 萬美元至 2.453 億美元，使調整後槓桿比率約為 1.8 倍，負債對資本比率為 37.6%。

The reduction in net indebtedness was a result of selling a significant amount of used equipment in the quarter and buying very little new equipment. With equipment deliveries concentrated in the last three quarters, leverage ratio may increase modestly in the next couple of quarters depending on the timing of deliveries and the prices for used equipment. Ultimately, we expect improved cash flow and disciplined capital allocation to reduce the leverage ratio over time, excluding acquisitions and other strategic options.

淨負債下降主要是因為本季出售了大量二手設備，且新設備採購很少。由於設備交付集中在接下來三個季度，槓桿比率在未來一到兩季可能會因交付時點與二手設備價格而小幅上升。最終，我們預期在不含併購與其他策略選項的情況下，改善的現金流與嚴謹的資本配置將隨時間降低槓桿比率。

The average age of our tractors at March 31 increased to 26 months compared to 20 months a year ago, consistent with year-over-year reductions to our high-mileage expedited fleet and growth in our less capital-intensive dedicated fleet. On an adjusted basis, return on average invested capital was 5% for the trailing four quarters versus 7.6% for the same period in the prior year.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們牽引車的平均車齡上升至 26 個月，去年同期為 20 個月；這與我們年對年縮減高里程加急車隊、並擴張資本密集度較低的專屬車隊一致。以調整後口徑計算，過去四季的平均投入資本報酬率為 5%，低於前一年同期的 7.6%。

Now providing a little more color on the performance of the individual business segments. The Expedited segment reported an adjusted operating ratio of 99.1% for the quarter, performance that fell well short of our expectations. Severe weather and rising fuel costs adversely impacted this segment more than any other in the quarter due to its linehaul nature, requiring high utilization to cover the fixed cost for the operation.

接下來補充各個業務事業部的表現細節。加急事業部本季調整後營業比率（adjusted operating ratio）為 99.1%，表現遠低於我們的預期。由於其屬於長途幹線（linehaul）型態，需要高利用率以覆蓋營運固定成本，因此惡劣天候與燃料成本上升對該事業部的負面影響較本季其他事業部更為顯著。

Going forward, we have line of sight to sequential improvement in this segment throughout the year. Over time, our goal was to average a double-digit adjusted operating margin across the freight cycle to generate an accepted return on capital. Dedicated's 95.5% adjusted operating ratio was an improvement compared to the 98.1% achieved in the prior year. Although this segment also encountered cost headwinds in the current period, those headwinds were not as severe as the impact of avian influenza in 2025.

展望未來，我們已能清楚看到該事業部將在全年逐季改善。長期而言，我們的目標是在整個貨運景氣循環中，平均達到兩位數的調整後營業利潤率，以取得可接受的資本報酬。專屬（Dedicated）事業部的調整後營業比率為 95.5%，較前一年的 98.1% 改善。雖然該事業部在本期同樣遭遇成本逆風，但其嚴重程度不及 2025 年禽流感的影響。

Going forward, our goal is to restore adjusted operating margin to double digits, grow the fleet serving high service niches and reduce the fleet that is exposed to more commoditized end markets where returns are inadequate. We were pleased with Managed Freight's performance for the current period, growing both revenue and adjusted operating income compared to the prior year. While the growth in freight revenue outpaced the growth in adjusted operating income, the cost to secure quality brokerage capacity has remained elevated from the fourth quarter of 2025.

展望未來，我們的目標是將調整後營業利潤率恢復至兩位數，擴大服務高服務水準利基市場的車隊規模，並縮減暴露於更商品化終端市場、且報酬不足的車隊。我們對本期管理式貨運（Managed Freight）的表現感到滿意，營收與調整後營業利益皆較前一年成長。雖然貨運營收的成長幅度超過調整後營業利益的成長，但為取得優質經紀運能（brokerage capacity）的成本自 2025 年第四季以來仍維持在較高水準。

Due to the asset-light nature of this business, we note that an adjusted operating margin in the mid-single digits generates an acceptable return on capital. The Warehouse segment successfully grew freight revenue 14.6% compared to the prior year as a result of organic growth with a new key customer in the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite the growth in revenue, adjusted operating income declined slightly, primarily due to increased start-up costs and operational inefficiencies associated with a new customer.

由於此業務屬於輕資產（asset-light）模式，我們指出：調整後營業利潤率落在中個位數即可產生可接受的資本報酬。倉儲（Warehouse）事業部因 2025 年第四季新增一位重要客戶帶來的有機成長，貨運營收年對年成長 14.6%。儘管營收成長，調整後營業利益仍小幅下滑，主要因新客戶導入所增加的啟動成本與營運效率不彰。

Looking ahead, we remain committed to driving organic growth within this segment and are focused on enhancing our adjusted operating margin with a target of reaching high single digits. Our minority investment in TEL contributed pretax net income of $3.7 million for the quarter compared to $3.8 million in the prior year period.

展望未來，我們仍致力於推動該事業部的有機成長，並聚焦提升調整後營業利潤率，目標達到高個位數。我們對 TEL 的少數股權投資本季貢獻稅前淨利 370 萬美元，去年同期為 380 萬美元。

Regarding our outlook for the future. We believe 2026 will be known as a transition year in the freight market with sequential incremental financial improvement to occur each quarter. During the first quarter, we secured rate and lane improvements with existing customers and developed a mature pipeline of new customers with attractive pricing on a level that has not occurred since 2022.

關於我們對未來的展望。我們認為 2026 年將被視為貨運市場的轉型年，且每一季都將出現逐季、漸進式的財務改善。第一季期間，我們與既有客戶取得運價與路線（lane）改善，並建立了成熟的新客戶管線，具吸引力的報價水準為自 2022 年以來未曾出現。

We expect this trend to continue as the year unfolds. The nature of these bids is the new rates and lanes take effect a few weeks after being negotiated. So the first quarter activity will begin to show up in the second quarter and so on.

我們預期此趨勢將隨著年度推進而延續。這些投標案的特性是：新運價與路線通常在談妥後數週才會生效。因此，第一季的活動將開始在第二季反映，依此類推。

It will take time for our 2026 efforts to be fully reflected in our financial results. This explains why the market impact was more than offset by the softness we experienced in January and February. Nevertheless, for the first time in multiple years, we have line of sight to capturing operational leverage from these environmental tailwinds. Our team is refreshed, energized and ready to execute.

我們在 2026 年的努力需要時間才能完整反映在財務結果中。這也解釋了為何市場帶來的正面影響，被我們在 1 月與 2 月所經歷的疲弱所抵銷。儘管如此，這是多年來首次，我們已能清楚看到可望在這些外部順風（environmental tailwinds）下擷取營運槓桿。我們的團隊已重新整裝、充滿動能，並準備好全力執行。

Thank you for your time, and we will now open the call for any questions.

感謝各位撥冗參與，接下來我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

It's Jason Seidl. (technical difficulty) Well, listen, a couple of quick questions. You guys are sort of in a unique position in that you have some product lines that are not exactly traditional OTR dry van. I was wondering maybe you could dive into some of the dynamics going on in the poultry market as well. Maybe give us an update on the DoD business.

我是 Jason Seidl。（技術問題）好的，聽著，我有幾個簡短問題。你們的處境有點獨特，因為你們有一些產品線並非傳統的長途（OTR）乾貨廂式車（dry van）。我想請你們也深入談談家禽市場目前的一些動態。也請更新一下國防部（DoD）業務的情況。

Yeah, Jason, a couple of things. I would say on the Dedicated side in general, Tripp talked about it, we're really happy with our pipeline, poultry and non-poultry. And I would say we continue to lean in on that space to specialized equipment, niche. It doesn't mean that that's all we're doing, but it means that's a heavy percentage of what we're doing. And so just excited for both sides of our Dedicated business, poultry and the non-poultry, on how the pipeline is building.

是的，Jason，有幾點。我會說在 Dedicated 這一塊整體來看，Tripp 也提到過，我們對我們的案源管線（pipeline）非常滿意，包含家禽與非家禽。我也會說我們持續在那個領域加大投入，聚焦於專用設備、利基市場。這不代表我們只做這些，但代表這是我們正在做的很大一部分比例。所以對我們 Dedicated 業務的兩個面向——家禽與非家禽——管線如何在累積成長，我們都很興奮。

Dedicated rate increases are going pretty well as well. So excited about that. The DoD business, as you know, rolls up in Expedited, and that business was pretty good in February, better in March and better in April than it was in March. So it's rolling pretty good right now.

Dedicated 的費率調升進展也相當不錯。所以對此也很期待。國防部（DoD）業務，如你所知，是併入 Expedited，那塊業務 2 月表現不錯，3 月更好，而 4 月又比 3 月更好。所以目前運轉得相當順。

All right. Glad to hear that. One of your competitors out there noted that they're starting to have peak season capacity discussions now and it's sort of unprecedented to happen in early April. Are you guys having the same discussions with customers? And then I have an another follow-up.

好，聽到這個很高興。你們有一家競爭對手提到，他們現在就開始和客戶討論旺季（peak season）運能，這在 4 月初就發生算是前所未見。你們也在和客戶進行同樣的討論嗎？然後我還有一個追問。

Yeah. I would say we haven't gotten as far as talking about peak now. But I would tell you, some of the capacity constraints in some markets remind you of peak a little bit. It's kind of market dependent, day of week dependent. What I would say, and Dustin just reminded me of this, is that we're seeing more people want to talk about Dedicated capacity on the team side than we've seen since '21 or '22.

是的。我會說我們還沒有進展到現在就談旺季。但我可以告訴你，某些市場的運能限制，確實會讓你有點想起旺季。這有點取決於市場，也取決於一週中的哪一天。我會說——Dustin 剛提醒我——我們看到更多人想談 Dedicated 的 team 運能，這是自 2021 或 2022 年以來未曾見過的程度。

And so we still got a long way to go on that, but having a lot of discussions with folks around Dedicated team capacity as opposed to OTR team capacity. So that could be some of what these folks are feeling is. But just so you know, we're looking at it more on trying to -- more of a multiyear, longer-term type deal than just peak season.

所以在這方面我們還有很長的路要走，但我們正在和很多人討論 Dedicated 的 team 運能，而不是 OTR 的 team 運能。所以這可能就是他們感受到的一部分。但讓你知道的是，我們更傾向把它視為——更偏向多年期、較長期的合作，而不只是旺季。

That makes a lot of sense. And finally, before I turn it over to the next person, how should we think about driver pay increases? Because we're hearing about a much -- a tightening market in general by getting some of the questionable capacity off of the road. Once we start seeing a little help in the economy, which it appears that industrial is recovering somewhat, there's obviously going to be increased demand for those remaining drivers. So how should we think about that as we move throughout the year?

這很合理。最後，在我把時間交給下一位之前，司機薪資上調我們應該怎麼看？因為我們聽到整體市場正在明顯收緊，部分可疑的運能正在被清出市場。一旦經濟開始有些助力——看起來工業端正在某種程度復甦——對剩餘司機的需求顯然會增加。所以今年接下來的時間，我們應該如何看待這件事？

Here's what I'd tell you. You're definitely right. Dustin and I were texting last night about driver pay. I was with -- been with two of our larger customers, one this week, one last week, and driver pay came up in both of those conversations, because for the first time in 40 months, drivers are starting to get tied out there. And so there are definitely targeted driver pay discussions that are going on.

我會這樣跟你說。你說得完全對。Dustin 和我昨晚還在傳訊息聊司機薪資。我最近和兩個較大的客戶在一起——一個是這週，一個是上週——兩次對話都提到了司機薪資，因為 40 個月來第一次，外面的司機開始變得吃緊。所以確實有一些針對性的司機薪資討論正在進行。

As far as how much of it is retention pay versus sign-on bonuses versus rate pay or weekly minimums, I think that's going to bounce around based on the business unit and maybe even down to the account level. But there's no doubt you're talking something in that mid-single digits probably on driver pay, maybe high single digits if this thing gets really hot.

至於其中有多少是留任獎金（retention pay）對比簽約獎金（sign-on bonuses）對比按里程/按趟計酬（rate pay）或每週最低保障（weekly minimums），我認為會依事業單位而波動，甚至可能細到客戶帳戶層級。但毫無疑問，你談的司機薪資大概會是中個位數百分比的增幅，若市場真的變得很火熱，可能會到高個位數。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示）Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

I was wondering what was going on with the question queue there for a minute. I got a question for David. Everybody is starting to talk about positive things for the first time in about three years in terms of fundamentally tightening up, margins getting better, et cetera. And your company is executing, I think, in a lot of areas where others aren't. Managed freight looks good, Warehousing looks good, Dedicated looks good.

我剛剛還在想提問隊列怎麼了。我有個問題想問 David。大約三年來第一次，大家開始談一些正面的事情，像是基本面正在收緊、利潤率在改善等等。而我認為你們公司在很多領域的執行力，確實比其他人更到位。Managed freight 看起來不錯，Warehousing 看起來不錯，Dedicated 看起來也不錯。

What excites you the most about kind of what's going on in the direction things are heading? And I guess as a second part of that, what do you think can go right better than we're thinking as optimistic as we might be getting? And what do you think might go wrong that we might not be giving enough weight to?

對於目前這些發展方向，你最感到興奮的是什麼？另外作為第二部分，你覺得有哪些可能「比我們想得更好」的正向情境——即便我們已經相當樂觀？以及你覺得有哪些可能出錯、但我們可能沒有給予足夠權重的風險？

Hey, Jeff, yes, I am more excited right now than I have been in 48 months. Last March is when all this downward spiral started. I mean, it's been four years since we've been in this trough that the industry has been going through. And so it's been a very difficult time. But I'm here to tell you that it is absolutely turning around.

嗨，Jeff，是的，我現在比過去 48 個月任何時候都更興奮。去年 3 月是這一切下行螺旋開始的時候。我的意思是，這個產業經歷的這個谷底，我們已經在裡面待了四年了。所以這段時間非常艱難。但我在這裡要告訴你，它確實正在反轉。

And I remember back in October on the third-quarter earnings call, someone asked the question, and we, A, we didn't know. But B, we just said we believe it's kind of an April event to get through the first quarter and what we were seeing in October, we think that April will really be sensing that. Excluding the fuel that kicked everybody's bottom in the month of March, it really started turning around nicely in March. And we have seen that continue into April.

我記得在 10 月的第三季財報電話會議上，有人問過這個問題，而我們，A，我們當時不知道。但 B，我們只是說我們相信這大概會是一個 4 月的事件——先度過第一季——就我們 10 月看到的情況，我們認為到 4 月會更有感。若不計 3 月燃油把大家打得很慘這件事，3 月其實已經開始相當不錯地轉好。而我們也看到這個趨勢延續到 4 月。

And now you're really starting to get a lot of [stats] that are backing that up as I think about the last four months of PMI and those kind of things that manufacturers really starting to make a nice play. Because before then, it was all related to capacity, I believe, November, December, January, February, again, excluding weather, but just the feel of the business was, in my mind, capacity related.

而現在你真的開始看到很多[統計數據]在支撐這件事，像我想到最近四個月的 PMI 以及那類指標，製造業真的開始有很不錯的表現。因為在那之前，我認為一切都和運能有關——我相信 11、12、1、2 月（同樣不含天氣因素），但就我看來，當時業務的感受主要是運能驅動的。

And now you have got manufacturing that is really starting to kick some bottom. And so that's nothing but a cherry on top of how I'm feeling here about the business environment. And I think that I would say a couple of things, positives, negatives. I was up in Washington two days -- a couple of days this week and continuing to work. Washington, the DOT Sean -- Secretary Duffy (technical difficulty) and they are doing unbelievable jobs, and I've told them that, that they are taking the bad drivers, the people that should not be on a truck, they are in the process of taking them off trucks.

而現在製造業真的開始火力全開。所以這只是在我對當前商業環境的感受上再加一顆櫻桃。我想我會說幾點，正面與負面。我這週有兩天——前幾天——在華盛頓，持續在推進相關工作。華盛頓那邊，DOT 的 Sean——Duffy 部長（technical difficulty）——他們做得非常出色，我也告訴過他們：他們正在把那些不良司機、那些不該開卡車的人，逐步從卡車上移除。

I believe to the tune right now that somewhere around 2% to 3% of capacity has been eliminated. And keep in mind, 2% to 3% capacity increase or decrease changes the market. You take out 2% or 3% of capacity and we're not raising rates and you take out those 2% to 3% of capacity and the market is tight. And so 2% to 3% is a major number.

我相信目前大約有 2% 到 3% 的運能已被淘汰。請記住，運能增加或減少 2% 到 3% 就會改變市場。你拿掉 2% 或 3% 的運能，即使我們不調漲費率；你拿掉那 2% 到 3% 的運能，市場就會變緊。所以 2% 到 3% 是一個很大的數字。

And I think they're just at the beginning stages of it. So what could the upside be is that. I think drivers are going to continue coming out of the market. Therefore, capacity is going to continue to come out of the market. I personally feel we're just at first base. I think it's going to be an industry-changing environment in the near future.

而我認為他們才剛開始而已。所以可能的上行空間就是這個。我認為司機會持續退出市場，因此運能也會持續退出市場。我個人覺得我們才剛到一壘。我認為在不久的將來，這會是一個改變產業的環境。

I mean, April is better than March, and I expect May is going to be better than April and those kind of things. And especially in particular, when we get into third quarter, there's going to be a great opportunity as capacity gets tighter to raise pricing, evident by the fact that we all need it, evident by the fact that we got 20% inflation in everybody's P&L in the last four years, I can look at any one of our customers in the eye and say, let me tell you, we need 10%.

我的意思是，4 月比 3 月好，而我預期 5 月會比 4 月更好，諸如此類。尤其是當我們進入第三季，隨著運能更緊，將會有很好的機會提高定價——這從我們都需要它這件事就看得出來，也從過去四年每個人的損益表（P&L）都有 20% 通膨這件事就看得出來；我可以看著任何一位客戶的眼睛說，讓我告訴你，我們需要 10%。

We need whatever, whatever double-digit numbers, they need to be there. And I think that the industry admitted that we -- none of us are interested in just buying another white truck or red truck or blue truck. That's not the desire. We've got to replace earnings that we've lost for the last four years. And I think everybody is really committed to saying that's the game plan that we're on. And so that's going to be interesting.

我們需要不管怎樣、不管怎樣的兩位數數字，它們必須要達到。我認為業界也承認，我們——沒有任何人有興趣只是再買一台白色卡車、紅色卡車或藍色卡車。那不是目標。我們必須補回過去四年流失的獲利。我想大家都非常投入，認為這就是我們正在執行的作戰計畫。所以這會很有意思。

What could go wrong? I want the war to get over with because capacity is increasing. I mean, manufacturing is increasing even there in the sense of the war, but the longer it lingers and lingers and lingers does it start affecting the economy. That's a concern that I've got.

可能會出什麼差錯？我希望戰爭趕快結束，因為運能正在增加。我的意思是，即使在戰爭的情況下，製造業也在增加，但它拖得越久、越久、越久，就會開始影響經濟。這是我擔心的地方。

I believe if it gets over in the next whatever, in one month, two weeks, four weeks, six weeks, sometime, it's going to get better. It's going to take a while for oil to go down, but you let oil get down from $95 a barrel down to $75 a barrel, and it reduces gasoline by $0.50 a gallon. The American people will sense that and feel that, and I think they'll continue to spend. And so I could not be any more excited than I have been in these four years. I think that we got our company exactly where we need it in the segments that we're in. And I'm just excited about adding to what already is happening in the industry.

我相信如果它在接下來不管怎樣的一個月、兩週、四週、六週、某個時間結束，情況就會變好。油價要下來需要一段時間，但如果讓油價從每桶 95 美元降到每桶 75 美元，汽油每加侖就會便宜 0.50 美元。美國民眾會感受到、也會切身體會到，我認為他們會繼續消費。所以我在這四年裡從未像現在這麼興奮。我覺得我們公司在我們所處的各個業務區隔，已經正好到達我們需要的位置。我也很期待在產業既有的動能之上再加碼。

That was awesome. Thank you. One follow-up kind of following a little bit on Jason Seidl's question is how much of the rate increases do you think end up being leaked out because we got to pay more wages to get drivers and taking into account your other cost inflation? What can you net on these rate increases to help margins get back to where they are?

那太棒了。謝謝。接著追問一個問題，稍微延續 Jason Seidl 的提問：你認為這些運價上調中，有多少最後會因為我們必須支付更高薪資來招募司機、再加上其他成本通膨，而被「漏」掉？在這些運價上調之後，淨額能留下多少，才能讓利潤率回到原本的水準？

Well, I'll let Paul and Dustin answer some of that. But that said, no doubt, I do believe that driver pay is going to go up because we can sense that, as we speak, the industry is and that is DOTs taking out drivers, and it has a domino effect. It's not that we hired any of those drivers. We got English-speaking things that go on in our company, we would never hire them. They got to be legal immigrants, et cetera, et cetera.

嗯，我讓 Paul 和 Dustin 回答其中一些。不過話說回來，毫無疑問，我確實相信司機薪資會上升，因為我們現在就能感覺到，整個產業正在發生這件事，而那是因為 DOT 在把司機剔除出來，產生骨牌效應。不是說我們雇用了那些司機。我們公司有一些必須英語溝通的要求，我們絕不會雇用他們。他們必須是合法移民，等等等等。

But it has a domino effect on the industry. And so I think that we're just at the beginning stages of feeling that. And I don't know what that means from a standpoint of increases because I think the first thing you're going to do is, hey, you stay with me, I'll pay you this and I'll pay you a bonus if you get new drivers in.

但它對整個產業有骨牌效應。所以我認為我們才剛開始感受到。我也不知道從加薪幅度的角度來看會是什麼意思，因為我覺得你第一件事會做的是：嘿，你留下來，我給你這個薪資，如果你帶來新司機我再給你獎金。

I don't know that it's going to be, here's a 5% driver pay increase. I think we'll be around the edges until we know that we know that we know how difficult it will be. So that part, I think, going to say, for the second, third quarter, I think that everybody is just going to be around the fringes. And it will be a number, but it's not going to crazy -- I say crazy, these drivers deserve everything they get. But from a cost standpoint, it's not going to be a crazy number. And I truly believe if capacity continues to tighten, whatever we got to get, we're going to get more than that in increased rates.

我不認為會是「這裡有 5% 的司機加薪」。我覺得在我們真正知道、知道、知道到底會有多難之前，我們會先在邊緣試探。所以這部分，我想在第二、第三季，大家都會先在邊緣地帶操作。會有一個數字，但不會到很誇張——我說誇張，這些司機值得他們拿到的一切。但從成本角度看，不會是個瘋狂的數字。而且我真的相信，如果運能持續收緊，不管我們必須付出多少，我們都會在運價上調中拿回更多。

I mean, Jeff, historically, driver pay is 30% of maybe total cost, give or take, depending on the exact team or dedicated or regional or whatnot. But if driver pay is in that 30% of your total cost range, I think it probably eats up 30% of your -- 30%, 40% of your wage -- of what you get from the customer, not immediately, but over the first six months or so.

我的意思是，Jeff，歷史上司機薪資大約占總成本的 30% 左右，視實際是雙人車隊、專屬、區域等而定，會有些差異。但如果司機薪資在你總成本的 30% 這個區間，我認為它大概會吃掉你——吃掉你從客戶那裡拿到的——30%、40% 的薪資——不是立刻，但在前六個月左右會逐步反映。

But as there's more pressure on driver pay, then you'll go back and get more rate again as a second bite in the apple because, as David said, driver pay is not the only inflation item that we're trying to cover for that where we've had significant inflation over the past few years. And there's some inflation items.

但隨著司機薪資壓力變大，你就會再回去爭取一次更高的運價，等於第二口蘋果，因為如 David 所說，司機薪資不是我們要用來彌補的唯一通膨項目；過去幾年我們面臨了顯著的通膨。而且還有一些通膨項目。

I mean, the areas around trucks and insurance and some of those that have had a lot of inflation parts the last few years, I don't see that inflation slowing down. And so I think it will be multiple rounds of rate increases. And so you'll probably end up netting 60% to 70% maybe of bottom line without other inflation items.

我的意思是，卡車相關、保險等這些領域，過去幾年零組件等方面的通膨很大，我看不出那種通膨會放緩。所以我認為會有多輪的運價上調。因此在不考慮其他通膨項目的情況下，你最後可能能淨留下 60% 到 70% 左右，進到最終獲利。

This one is for Tripp. Tripp, the Section 232 tariffs made it a little challenging for some of your truck OE partners to be able to quote good prices for vehicles this year. Has that clarified yet? Or is it still a situation where the OEs that are selling your trucks or manufacturing in Mexico still can't quite get the pricing down?

這題是問 Tripp 的。Tripp，第 232 條關稅讓你的一些卡車 OE（原廠）合作夥伴今年在報出好的車輛價格時變得有點具挑戰性。現在有比較明朗了嗎？還是說那些在墨西哥生產、或銷售你們卡車的 OE，仍然沒辦法把價格壓下來？

No. I would say, Jeff, we do have pricing for next year, and that is a big question for us. So we've got so many like near-term opportunities in terms of how we're thinking about managing our portfolio of business and our assets on the road today. We just unloaded a lot of extra capacity or a lot of extra trucks that weren't being efficiently used, which is one of the reasons why cash flow was so good.

沒有。我會說，Jeff，我們已經有明年的定價了，而那對我們來說是個大問題。所以我們在近期有很多機會，關於我們如何思考管理我們的業務組合，以及我們今天在路上的資產。我們剛處理掉了很多多餘的運能或多餘的卡車，那些車並沒有被有效率地使用，這也是現金流表現這麼好的原因之一。

But the things we've talked about is the notion of a prebuy in Q4, and I don't think we're leaning towards that because I think our goal is to try to buy capital or buy equipment as smoothly throughout the year as possible with the exception of Q1, it was just a really light buying quarter, which it typically is.

但我們談到的事情之一，是第四季提前採購（prebuy）的概念，而我不認為我們會傾向那樣做，因為我認為我們的目標是，除了第一季（通常本來就是採購很淡的一季）之外，盡可能在全年更平順地購置資本或設備。

And so we are looking at probably a $7,000 to $10,000 probably cost increase, I would say, on the average across all the different types of trucks that we buy for next year. And we'll be factoring that into account as well when we think about rate increases. It's just one more thing that Paul and David were talking about in addition to driver pay that has not slowed down, and it's compounded in a loose market where used equipment has never been sold cheaper.

所以我們在看，明年我們購買的各種不同類型卡車，平均而言成本可能會增加大約 7,000 到 10,000 美元。我想我們在思考運價上調時也會把這點納入考量。這只是 Paul 和 David 所談到的、除了司機薪資之外又一個沒有放緩的因素；而且在一個疲弱的市場裡，二手設備從未賣得這麼便宜，這種影響會被放大。

And so when you're buying stuff at the highest points and you're selling stuff at the lowest points, it's not the perfect equation for a great profitable quarter. And so we're seeing some strengthening, I would say, or bottoming, I would say, in the used equipment market, and I expect it to strengthen throughout the year as this economy -- or as this freight market turns.

所以當你在最高點買進、在最低點賣出時，這不是一個能帶來很棒獲利季度的完美方程式。因此我們看到二手設備市場有些走強，我會說，或是觸底，我會說；而且我預期隨著這個經濟——或是隨著這個貨運市場回轉——它會在全年持續走強。

So we're optimistic. I mean, we'll get some help on the used equipment side, but I think the new stuff is going to continue to go up. And we're going to continue to focus on using our stuff efficiently with the right customers, and it will be what it will be.

所以我們是樂觀的。我的意思是，在二手設備這一端我們會得到一些幫助，但我認為新車的價格會持續上升。我們也會持續專注於，和合適的客戶一起把我們的設備用得更有效率，結果就會是它該是的樣子。

Hey, Jeff, let me clarify when Tripp talks about the increases next year, those are not tariff-related increases. They're more price [increases because of] OEMs, because of emissions. (multiple speakers)

嘿，Jeff，我澄清一下：當 Tripp 談到明年的成本增加時，那些不是關稅相關的增加。它們更像是因為 OEM 的價格（上調），因為排放法規。（多位講者）

(Operator Instructions) Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

（接線員指示）Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

David, you just mentioned you were in D.C. I'm hoping maybe you can share a little bit of insight of what you learned. Is there a path forward to Dalilah's Law, Dalilah bill to become a law this year? Anything on Montgomery case and how you think that may or may not impact the industry? Or anything else that you think is interesting?

David，你剛提到你人在華盛頓特區。我希望你能分享一些你了解到的見解。今年 Dalilah's Law（Dalilah 法案）有沒有可能推進並成為法律？Montgomery 案件方面有什麼進展，以及你認為它可能或不可能如何影響產業？或是還有其他你覺得有意思的事情？

We're going down two roads in Washington. One road is CDLs, immigrants, CDL schools to make sure the bad ones are shut down, and the good ones are still producing -- insurance requirements. Those are one road that we're going down and the other road we're going down is Tort reform. And I would say on Tort reform, we've gone from a 0% chance to -- my number is 25% chance that that is going to happen.

我們在華盛頓正沿著兩條路在推進。一條路是 CDL（商業駕照）、移民、CDL 駕訓學校，確保不良的被關停，而好的仍能持續培訓——以及保險要求。這是一條路；另一條路是侵權改革（Tort reform）。我會說，在侵權改革方面，我們已經從 0% 的機率提升到——我估計有 25% 的機率會發生。

And the only reason why I say 25% is because President Trump has been affected so much by warfare and law fare or whatever words you want to use there that at least the administration recognizes that. And the administration cannot lead it, but the administration can support it. And so we're working Congress awfully hard to get behind it, and we got some folks that are definitely behind it. And we're just at the infinite stages of dealing with Congress.

我之所以說 25%，唯一的原因是，川普總統受到戰爭與「lawfare」（法律戰）或你想用的任何詞影響很大，至少政府已經意識到這點。政府本身不能主導，但政府可以支持。因此我們正非常努力地推動國會支持，我們也確實有一些人士明確站在我們這邊。我們目前還在與國會打交道的非常早期階段。

We had good meetings this week with judiciary committee. And I think that we're going to be presenting to them in the future. And so that's good. I mean, if you can't get to the judiciary committee, you're never going to get us to the floor. And so we'll see where that goes. But again, to me, we're at 25% that we're able to get Tort reform, but it was at zero a year ago. So we'll see.

本週我們與司法委員會進行了很好的會議。我認為未來我們會向他們做簡報。這是好事。我的意思是，如果你進不了司法委員會，你永遠不可能把事情推到院會表決。所以我們看看後續如何發展。但再次強調，就我而言，我們有 25% 的機會能推動侵權改革；但一年前還是零。所以我們拭目以待。

And then the other one, again, is that to me the DOT is doing exactly what they need to do. So ours is to continue to encourage them and continue to support them and all the things they're doing. Again, CDL school. ELD is unbelievable. The amount of cheating that happens in this industry, unbelievable.

然後另一條路，我再說一次，就我看來，DOT（交通部）正在做他們需要做的事。我們要做的是持續鼓勵他們、持續支持他們正在做的一切。再說一次，CDL 駕訓學校、ELD（電子行車紀錄裝置）——這太驚人了。這個產業裡作弊的程度，令人難以置信。

But they're on top of it. And so to me, the message that DOT is hearing from us is sustainability. We got to continue to sustain this effort that you're going. And I'm thinking they've taken out 2% or 3%. I mean, guys, it could be easily another 5% or 6%. I mean, it's a big number, whether it's 3% or 4%, 5% or 6%, but whatever it is, it's a big number that is out there. (technical difficulty)

但他們掌握得很好。所以對我而言，我們傳達給 DOT 的訊息是「可持續性」。你們正在推進的這項努力，我們必須持續維持下去。我在想他們已經剔除了 2% 或 3%。各位，這很可能還能再多 5% 或 6%。不管是 3% 或 4%、5% 或 6%，無論如何，這都是一個很大的數字。（技術問題）

So anyway, it could be a large number on capacity coming out. So that's what my efforts in Washington and others is there, but we're definitely getting in front of the right people that can help and they can see us and we'll carry the football. The question is, will we get across the goal line. And I think DOT is a given. Again, sustainability, Tort reform is 25% chance, and we'll see what happens there, Scott.

所以總之，可能會有相當大的運力退出。這就是我在華盛頓以及其他人的努力方向；我們確實正在接觸能提供幫助的對的人，他們也能看到我們，而我們會把球往前帶。問題是，我們能不能衝過達陣線。我認為 DOT 這塊是既定的——再說一次，重點是可持續性；侵權改革是 25% 的機率，我們看看會怎麼發展，Scott。

So is your point there that whether or not maybe Dalilah's law speed things up, but even without that, that the Department of Transportation is going to -- may take a little bit longer, but they're working on all the stuff on their own even without this law.

所以你的意思是，不管 Dalilah's law 是否會加速進程，但即使沒有它，交通部也會——可能只是需要更長時間——但他們即使沒有這部法律，也會自行推進所有這些事情？

Yes, I didn't answer your question. I believe Dalilah's law will pass. I do believe that. But I'm going to tell you that they are doing the things in DOT that is really the Dalilah's law without it being rectified in Congress, which would be great because then becomes law versus the next DOT Secretary that's doing whatever they want and not paying attention to it. So you wanted to get it codified as a law, but they are doing the Dalilah's law as we speak virtually.

是的，我沒有回答你的問題。我相信 Dalilah's law 會通過，我確實相信。但我要告訴你的是，DOT 正在做的事情，基本上就是 Dalilah's law 的內容，即使國會尚未把它正式修法通過——那當然會更好，因為那樣就成為法律，而不是下一任 DOT 部長想做什麼就做什麼、也可能不重視這件事。所以你會希望把它編纂成法律，但他們現在幾乎已經在實質上執行 Dalilah's law 了。

Yeah. Okay. And then just in terms of your business, right, you've got in the Expedited segment I think still pretty meaningful LTL exposure. Are you seeing the same sorts of improvements on that side of the business? Maybe are you seeing some life in the LTL volume? Just any thoughts on that.

好的。那再就你們的業務而言，你們在加急（Expedited）部門我認為仍有相當可觀的 LTL（零擔）曝險。你們在那一側也看到同樣類型的改善嗎？你們是否看到 LTL 量有些回溫？對此有什麼想法？

Yeah. I would say in the last couple of months, you started seeing the LTL side coming back. I think it relates to PMI being four months above 50, et cetera. I think that they're starting to sense that because we went -- if you remember, Scott, we went, I don't know, last summer, fall, and we started seeing some trends that were not good year over year for our LTL freight that we do anyway. And we started seeing that upticking now, and we're starting to sense that the LTL side of the business is starting to get better out there for us, and I think for them probably as an industry.

是的。我會說在過去幾個月，你開始看到 LTL 端回來了。我認為這與 PMI 連續四個月高於 50 等因素有關。我覺得他們開始感受到這點。因為我們——如果你還記得，Scott，我們在去年夏天、秋天左右開始看到一些趨勢，對我們所做的 LTL 貨運而言，同比表現並不好。而現在我們開始看到回升，我們也開始感覺到 LTL 這一側的業務對我們而言正在變得更好，我想對他們來說，作為一個產業可能也是如此。

Okay. And then maybe just last thing real quick. Tripp or Paul, whoever, I know you talked about some longer-term margin targets for the different businesses. Any sort of, I don't know, just near-term thoughts about how to think about margins for the businesses, Q2, Q3?

好的。那最後一個問題很快問一下。Tripp 或 Paul，任何一位都可以。我知道你們談到不同業務的較長期毛利率目標。那在短期方面，有沒有什麼想法，比如該如何看待各業務的利潤率，Q2、Q3？

Okay. I think we probably found out Scott. They died and me -- and you're talking to each other (laughter) I would tell you, yeah, you're going to continue to see margin improvement. I think that second quarter is going to be -- April is better than March, and March wasn't bad, but we're not getting out of rate increases April 15 either.

好的。我想我們大概知道了，Scott。他們掛了，而我——而你們兩個在彼此聊天（笑聲）。我會告訴你，是的，你會持續看到利潤率改善。我認為第二季會——4 月比 3 月更好，而 3 月其實也不差，但我們在 4 月 15 日也不會停止調價。

So April, May and June is going to be layered in on whatever we're getting as we speak. And so I think that you'll see second quarter definite improvement over first quarter. And then I think you'll see third quarter improvement over second quarter.

所以 4 月、5 月和 6 月會在我們目前所取得的基礎上持續疊加。因此我認為你會看到第二季相較第一季明顯改善。然後我認為你會看到第三季相較第二季再改善。

(Operator Instructions) Okay, and it appears that there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

（接線員指示）好的，看起來目前沒有其他問題。我將把電話會議交回給我們的簡報人員，請他們做任何補充或結語。

Yeah. Thanks, Jen. And I just want to thank everyone on the call for your interest in Covenant and our Q1 earnings, and we look forward to speaking with you again in Q2. Thanks very much, and have a great week.

好的。謝謝你，Jen。我也想感謝所有參與電話會議的各位，謝謝你們對 Covenant 以及我們第一季（Q1）財報的關注，我們期待在第二季（Q2）再次與各位交流。非常感謝，祝各位有美好的一週。

And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。