Covenant Logistics Group Inc (CVLG) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to today's Covenant Logistics Group Q3 2025 earnings release and investor conference call. Our host for today's call is Tripp Grant. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Covenant Logistics Group 2025 年第三季財報發表會暨投資者電話會議。今天電話會議的主持人是特里普·格蘭特。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Grant. You may begin, sir.

現在我將把通話交給主持人格蘭特先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Covenant Logistics Group third quarter 2025 conference call. As a reminder, this call will contain forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which are subsequent to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please review our SEC filings and most recent risk factors. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Our prepared comments and additional financial information are available on our website at www.covenantlogistics.com/investors.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Covenant Logistics Group 2025 年第三季電話會議。提醒各位，本次電話會議將包含《私人證券訴訟改革法案》項下的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。請查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和最新的風險因素。我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們準備好的評論和更多財務資訊可在我們的網站 www.covenantlogistics.com/investors 上查閱。

Joining me today are CEO, David Parker; President, Paul Bunn; and COO, Dustin Koehl. Our business remained resilient in the third quarter, although margins were compressed, particularly in our Asset-Based Truckload segment due to an inflationary cost environment, persistently high claims expense, headwinds from excessive unproductive equipment and continued pressure on volume and yields in our Expedited and Dedicated segments.

今天與我一同出席的有執行長大衛·帕克、總裁保羅·邦恩和營運長達斯汀·科爾。第三季度，儘管利潤率受到壓縮，尤其是在我們的資產型整車運輸業務中，由於通貨膨脹的成本環境、持續高企的索賠費用、過多的非生產性設備帶來的不利影響，以及我們的加急和專線運輸業務的銷量和收益持續承壓，我們的業務仍然保持韌性。

Year over year highlights for the quarter include consolidated freight revenue increased by 4% or approximately $10.2 million to $268.9 million. Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 22.5% to $15 million, primarily as a result of year over year increases within our combined Truckload segment. Our net indebtedness as of September 30, increased by $48.6 million to $268.3 million compared to December 31, 2024, yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.1 times and debt-to-capital ratio of 38.8%, as a result of executing our share repurchase program and acquisition-related earn-out payments.

本季同比亮點包括綜合貨運收入成長 4%，約 1,020 萬美元，達到 2.689 億美元。綜合調整後營業收入下降 22.5% 至 1,500 萬美元，主要原因是我們合併後的整車運輸業務部門年增。截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，我們的淨負債較 2024 年 12 月 31 日增加了 4,860 萬美元，達到 2.683 億美元，調整後的槓桿率約為 2.1 倍，債務資本比率為 38.8%，這是由於我們執行了股票回購計劃和收購相關的或有付款。

The average age of our tractors at September 30, increased to 23 months compared to 20 months a year ago. On an adjusted basis, return on average invested capital was 6.9% versus 8.1% in the prior year. Now providing a little more color on the performance of the individual business segments. Our Expedited segment yielded a 93.6% adjusted operating ratio. While this result falls short of our expectations for this segment, we've been pleased with the resilience of this segment over the prolonged downturn.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們拖拉機的平均使用年限增加到 23 個月，而一年前為 20 個月。經調整後，平均投資資本報酬率為 6.9%，而前一年為 8.1%。現在更詳細地介紹一下各個業務部門的業績。我們的加急業務部門調整後營業比率為 93.6%。雖然這結果低於我們對該領域的預期，但我們對該領域在長期低迷時期所展現出的韌性感到滿意。

Compared to the prior year, Expedited adjusted operating ratio increased 160 basis points. The average fleet size shrunk by 31 units or 3.4% to 861 average tractors in the period. We expect the size of this fleet to flex up and down modestly based on various market factors. As market conditions improve, our focus will be on improving margins through rate increases, exiting less profitable business and adding more profitable business.

與前一年相比，加速調整後的營運比率上升了 160 個基點。在此期間，平均車隊規模減少了 31 輛，降幅為 3.4%，平均為 861 輛拖拉機。我們預計該船隊的規模將根據各種市場因素進行小幅波動。隨著市場狀況的改善，我們將專注於透過提高費率來提高利潤率，退出獲利能力較弱的業務，並增加獲利能力較強的業務。

Dedicated's 94.7% adjusted operating ratio also fell short of both the prior year and our long-term expectations for this segment. We were successful in growing the dedicated fleet by 136 tractors or approximately 9.6% compared to the prior year as we have continued to win new business in specialized and high service niches within our Dedicated segment. Going forward, we plan to reduce certain of our fleet in this segment that is exposed to more commoditized end markets, where returns are not justified and continue to invest in areas that provide value-added services for customers. Managed Freight exceeded both revenue and adjusted operating income compared to the prior year but fell backwards sequentially due to the loss of a short-term customer that scaled up in the first half of 2025 and rolled off in Q3.

Dedicated 的調整後營運比率為 94.7%，也低於前一年和我們對該業務部門的長期預期。與前一年相比，我們的專用車隊規模成功成長了 136 輛牽引車，增幅約為 9.6%，因為我們在專用車隊細分市場的專業化和高服務細分市場中不斷贏得新業務。展望未來，我們計劃減少該細分市場中部分面向商品化程度較高的終端市場的機隊規模，因為這些市場的回報並不合理；同時，我們將繼續投資於能夠為客戶提供增值服務的領域。與前一年相比，管理貨運業務的收入和調整後的營業收入均有所增長，但由於失去了一位在 2025 年上半年擴大規模並在第三季度終止合作的短期客戶，環比有所下降。

Our team showed resilience through this difficult freight cycle with their ability to bring on new freight, handle overflow freight from Expedited and reduce costs to offset lost business. Over the longer term, our strategy is to grow and diversify this segment. And we know that an operating margin in the mid-single digits generates an acceptable return on capital given the asset-light nature of this segment. Our Warehouse segment experienced freight revenue and adjusted operating income that was slightly below the prior year quarter and yielded an adjusted operating ratio of 92.1%. The adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating ratio in this segment was a solid improvement sequentially.

在這個艱難的貨運週期中，我們的團隊展現了強大的韌性，他們能夠接收新的貨物，處理加急貨運的溢出貨物，並降低成本以彌補業務損失。從長遠來看，我們的策略是發展壯大並多元化這一領域。我們知道，考慮到該業務板塊的輕資產性質，中等個位數的營業利潤率可以產生可接受的資本回報率。我們的倉儲業務部門的貨運收入和調整後營業收入略低於去年同期，調整後營業比率為 92.1%。此業務板塊的調整後營業利潤和調整後營業比率較上季均有顯著改善。

Going forward, we anticipate top line revenue growth and operating income growth, as a result of a large customer start-up scheduled for November. Our minority investment in TEL contributed pretax net income of $3.6 million for the quarter compared to $4 million in the prior year period. The impact of incremental bad debt expense in the quarter compared to the prior year reduced TEL's pretax net income. Although TEL's overall business remains strong, exiting capacity from the general freight environment is expected to impact them again in the fourth quarter and potentially beyond.

展望未來，由於計劃於 11 月啟動的大型客戶項目，我們預計營收和營業收入將實現成長。我們對 TEL 的少數股權投資在本季度貢獻了 360 萬美元的稅前淨收入，而去年同期為 400 萬美元。與去年同期相比，本季新增壞帳支出對TEL的稅前淨利造成了影響。儘管東京電子的整體業務依然強勁，但預計第四季及以後，隨著貨運量普遍下降，其業務能力將再次受到影響。

Regarding our outlook for the future, we anticipate the fourth quarter of the year to remain challenging with the continuation of the soft freight market, combined with the impact of company-specific factors that will result in what we believe to be an unseasonably soft quarter despite a slight positive impact from peak. Company-specific factors within our line of sight include the negative impact of increased claims accruals, the negative impact the US government shutdown is having on volumes of freight we carry for the Department of Defense and accelerated customer bankruptcies with TEL will all prove to be challenges for the quarter.

關於我們對未來的展望，我們預計今年第四季仍將充滿挑戰，疲軟的貨運市場將持續，再加上公司自身因素的影響，儘管高峰期會帶來輕微的正面影響，但我們認為這將是一個異常疲軟的季度。公司特有的因素在我們可預見的範圍內，包括索賠累計增加帶來的負面影響、美國政府停擺對我們為國防部運輸的貨物量造成的負面影響，以及TEL客戶破產加速等，這些都將對本季度構成挑戰。

In addition, as capacity exits accelerate within the general market, we anticipate the cost to procure transportation will likely lead our ability to capture rate increases from our customers in our Managed Freight segment, resulting in constrained margins. Despite both the general market and company-specific challenges over the short term, we are increasingly optimistic about the pace at which the freight market should recover. Recent enforcement of government policies concerning English language and non-domicile drivers have seemed to accelerate the pace of capacity exiting the market.

此外，隨著整體市場運力退出加速，我們預期運輸採購成本可能會影響我們在貨運管理業務領域從客戶那裡獲得價格上漲的能力，導致利潤率受限。儘管短期內整體市場和公司層面都面臨挑戰，但我們對貨運市場的復甦速度越來越樂觀。近期政府加強了對英語語言和非本地駕駛員的政策執行，似乎加速了運力退出市場的步伐。

We believe the impact of this trend is being masked by consumer pause and uncertainty as a result of elevated interest rates and volatility of global trade policy. Our belief is that consumer demand will improve with the continuation of monetary easing and the eventual settlement of trade tensions. In addition, the impact of recent tax policy will further facilitate demand. Regardless of when the market environment turns, our team is ready to move quickly to execute with urgency to capture additional market share and the appropriate amount of operational leverage that returns appropriate levels of capital to our shareholders.

我們認為，由於利率高企和全球貿易政策波動，消費者的消費意願降低，不確定性加劇，掩蓋了​​這一趨勢的影響。我們認為，隨著貨幣寬鬆政策的持續以及貿易緊張局勢的最終解決，消費者需求將會改善。此外，近期稅收政策的影響也將進一步促進需求。無論市場環境何時發生變化，我們的團隊都已做好準備，迅速行動，以緊迫感奪取更多市場份額，並獲得適當的營運槓桿，從而為股東帶來適當的資本回報。

Thank you for your time, and we will now open the call for any questions.

感謝您抽出時間，現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

So I want to start where you wrapped up just talking about the capacity backdrop and maybe just give us some color on what you're actually seeing in the market with respect to capacity exits? How big of a deal do you think this is going to have? And then I don't know maybe just like -- there's certainly more talk in the market about this. Why don't you think we're seeing any impact on like national spot rates? I know there's a lot of talk about local markets getting tighter, but why do you think this isn't showing up necessarily in national spot rate data?

所以我想從你剛才談到的產能背景開始，或許可以為我們介紹一下你目前在產能退出市場方面實際觀察到的情況？你覺得這件事會產生多大的影響？然後，我不知道，也許就像——市場上肯定有更多的人在談論這件事。為什麼你認為我們沒有看到對全國現貨匯率有任何影響？我知道現在很多人都在談論本地市場供應趨緊，但你認為為什麼這種情況沒有在全國即期匯率數據中反映出來？

Scott, it's David. Yeah, I mean, this is something that didn't drive me crazy trying to figure out where all this is going. And I would say a couple of things because great first question. From a standpoint, I'm more excited. I've been in this thing 53 years. I'm more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years. I see some things that we've never ever been in a position, where we are starting to get the government that is now starting to get concerned about who's driving trucks and why should they be driving them, and you are sensing that, and I just see an avalanche that's in the process of happening.

史考特，我是大衛。是的，我的意思是，這件事並沒有讓我抓狂，讓我費盡心思去弄清楚這一切最終會走向何方。我還有幾點想說，因為這是一個很好的問題。從某種意義上說，我更加興奮了。我從事這項工作已經53年了。我現在的興奮程度，比我整個職業生涯中未來兩到三年任何時候都要高。我看到了一些我們從未經歷過的事情，例如政府開始關注誰在駕駛卡車以及他們為什麼要駕駛卡車，你也能感受到這一點，我看到一場雪崩正在發生。

And as I think about from spot rates, I mean, we have seen compression on margins on our brokerage side in the last three weeks when all this stuff started. And it is right now defined to a lot of individual states. And I met yesterday with our brokerage group and California, Texas, Oklahoma, Chicago, those are states and cities that keep coming up over and over. And you have got third parties that are scared to go to those states, right, wrong or indifferent. And that's the reason why you are seeing instead across the board that you are seeing, I believe, spot areas of the country, where it's becoming tighter and rates have gone up in those areas because a lot of these truckers are still going to go.

就即期匯率而言，我的意思是，在過去三週這一切開始的時候，我們已經看到經紀業務的利潤率受到了壓縮。目前，它的定義已經細化到許多不同的州。昨天我與我們的經紀團隊開會，加州、德州、俄克拉荷馬州、芝加哥，這些州和城市一再被提及。還有一些第三方人士害怕前往這些州，無論對錯或漠不關心。這就是為什麼你會看到全國各地，尤其是某些地區，運輸市場趨於緊張，運費上漲，因為許多卡車司機仍然會繼續運輸。

I'm not going to Oklahoma. I heard Oklahoma pulling over 135 trucks and sending by the jail and all those stories that we're all hearing. I'm not going to Laredo, Texas. They're going to stop everybody that can't speak English. And so that is really leading the effort.

我不去俄克拉荷馬州。我聽說俄克拉荷馬州攔下了 135 多輛卡車，並將它們送往監獄，以及我們都聽到的那些故事。我不去德州拉雷多。他們會攔下所有不會說英語的人。因此，這才是真正引領這項工作的。

Now that said, will it be a red versus blue states, red being aggressive, blue not being as aggressive. But I'm here to tell you that if they continue to have -- if we all continue to wake up every day, with another fatality accident by illegal immigrant, it is going to spread throughout the United States. And as I look at this, as I look at non-domiciled CDLs, as I look at the English-speaking issue, as I look at ELDs, there is more cheating going on and toggling is unbelievable guys to what's going on with ELDs. And so far, the government has suspended five or six companies. I'm here to tell you there's going to have to be hundreds there's about 950 that are approved ELD suppliers, and they need to look at every one of these ELD suppliers.

那麼，這會是紅州對藍州的對決嗎？紅州咄咄逼人，藍州則不那麼咄咄逼人。但我在這裡要告訴你們，如果他們繼續這樣做——如果我們每天醒來都聽到非法移民造成的又一起致命事故，那麼這種現象將會蔓延到整個美國。當我審視這一切，審視非本地居民的 CDL，審視英語問題，審視 ELD 時，我發現作弊現象越來越多，而 ELD 的切換簡直令人難以置信。到目前為止，政府已經暫停了五、六家公司的營運。我在這裡要告訴你們，肯定需要數百家供應商，目前大約有 950 家是經批准的 ELD 供應商，他們需要審查每個 ELD 供應商。

We all thought that when we went to ELDs that everything was going to be legal and you're not going to have log books and everybody is not going to be cheating. Well, I'm here to tell you, us big guys, we love the ELDs. We love not having log books. But when you got toggling going on, it's rampant cheating that is happening. I run a truck 100,000 miles, they're running trucks 140,000 miles. And so the government is just now for the first time ever that it's starting to go down this road

我們都以為，當我們使用電子記錄設備（ELD）時，一切都會合法化，不會再有日誌簿，也不會有人作弊。我來告訴你們，我們這些大公司的人，都非常喜歡電子記錄設備 (ELD)。我們很喜歡不用記日誌。但是，一旦出現切換功能，就會出現猖獗的作弊行為。我的卡車跑了 10 萬英里，他們的卡車跑了 14 萬英里。因此，政府現在才第一次開始走上這條道路。

And so, I feel very confident that over the next six months, one year, two years, whatever it's going to be, it's going to be a snowballing effect that we are going to have less drivers on the road. We're going to have safer drivers on the road. We're going to have English-speaking people that can have the ability to speak English and understand it. We are going to have ELDs are going to be in much better shape, get rid of the multiple MC numbers. Guys, it's rampant with shutting down this, opening up that one.

因此，我非常有信心，在接下來的六個月、一年、兩年，無論是多久，都會產生滾雪球效應，導致路上的駕駛者越來越少。我們將擁有更安全的駕駛員。我們將擁有能夠說英語和聽懂英語的英語人才。我們將擁有更好的電子日誌記錄器，消除多個MC編號。各位，現在這種一會兒關閉這個，一會兒開放那個的情況太普遍了。

Today, I shut down tomorrow, I open up another one. We're just now learning about this and just now starting to do anything about it. So as I look at capacity, one of the things that strikes me is this is coming to a head. It's going to be -- it's in the process of exiting. But as good as anything, I'm here to tell you the funnel is stopping coming in whatever that number is, that's leaving, whether it's 1,000 or 200,000, they're going to leave, but there's not going to be a flood of entries coming in.

今天我關門，明天再開一家。我們現在才了解到這件事，也才剛開始著手解決它。所以，當我審視產能問題時，讓我印象深刻的一點是，這個問題正在逼近關鍵時刻。它即將發生——它正在退出過程中。但我可以負責任地告訴大家，無論流入用戶是多少，流失的用戶都在減少，無論是 1,000 人還是 20 萬人，他們都會離開，但不會有大量的用戶湧入。

And so, that is extremely encouraging that for the first time in my 53 years, there's actually a constraining of supply that's happening. And there's not going to be a bunch of new drivers from all over the world that's entering the truck driving workforce. I looked at that, Scott, and I'll shut up here in a minute. You asked the first question of what I've been alive with for the last month. But as I look at this supply, then I start looking at what the Fed is doing on interest rates.

因此，這非常令人鼓舞，在我 53 年的人生中，第一次出現了供應受限的情況。不會有大量來自世界各地的新司機湧入卡車司機隊伍。史考特，我看過那個了，我馬上就閉嘴。你問出了我過去一個月以來一直承受著怎樣的煎熬，也是我遇到的第一個問題。但當我觀察這種供應情況時，我會開始關注聯準會在利率方面的舉措。

They're going to continue to lower interest rates. They're going to continue to pump the economy up. This physical -- the stimulus package that we all hear Trump talk about $17 trillion, $20 trillion, right, I don't know what the number is. One thing I do know it's gigantic. And there is a lot of freight on these plants that are being built in America, even if it takes two years, there is a lot of business that's coming to America that's got a lot of freight in it from these new plants that are going to be coming up. So as I look at supply, I am more excited than I've ever been. There is no doubt. I think we and the industry, we got some jump to go through. What do I mean by that? Brokerage, margin compression is happening now.

他們將繼續降低利率。他們將繼續刺激經濟成長。這項經濟刺激方案——我們都聽川普說過，金額是 17 兆美元、20 兆美元，對吧，我不知道具體數字是多少。我知道的一件事是，它非常巨大。即使需要兩年時間，這些在美國建造的工廠也承載著大量的貨物運輸，因為有很多企業會來到美國，而這些企業也需要從即將建成的新工廠運送大量的貨物。所以，當我看到供應情況時，我比以往任何時候都更加興奮。毫無疑問。我認為我們和整個產業都需要經歷一段過渡期。我這話是什麼意思？經紀業務方面，保證金壓縮正在發生。

I see it in our business. All the brokers are going to see it in their business. As I look at used truck market as we speak today, it's less than what I want, but I believe it's going to turn around fairly soon, maybe next year because nobody is going to buy a Class 8 truck. We don't know what we're going to pay for a Class 8 truck. I'm at ATA next week in San Diego, and I can't tell you what a price of a truck is right now or if I'm even going to buy one. So it's going to drive up the used truck prices. So that I'm happy about that. This government shutdown. It hurt me on my Department of Defense business, but I'm a month into it. We'll see what happens there, but it's not helping.

我在我們的行業中看到了這一點。所有經紀人都會在業務中遇到這種情況。就我目前所見，二手卡車市場不如我預期，但我相信這種情況很快就會好轉，也許明年就會好轉，因為沒人會買8級卡車。我們不知道買一輛8級卡車要花多少錢。我下週要去聖地牙哥參加ATA展會，但我現在還不能告訴你卡車的價格，甚至不能確定我是否會買一輛。所以這將推高二手卡車的價格。所以我很開心。這次政府停擺。這對我國防部的業務造成了影響，但我已經堅持一個月了。我們看看那裡會發生什麼，但這並沒有什麼幫助。

Eventually, it will -- eventually will go back to work and everything will be good there. But -- and lastly, I was just telling the guys here before we got on here, one of the things that I'm really excited about, as we all know, our industry has not raised rates in four years. I haven't raised rates virtually at all in four years. And I was in a meeting in the last couple of days with sales and both on our legacy dedicated and on our expedited, we got 8 or 10 accounts that we have asked for rate increases and actually have been given 2.5% to 4% in the last couple of weeks. That excites me.

最終，一切都會好起來的。但是——最後，在我們上台之前，我剛剛跟這裡的伙伴們說了一件事，我非常興奮，因為我們都知道，我們這個行業已經四年沒有提高費率了。四年來，我幾乎沒有提高過利率。在過去幾天裡，我與銷售部門開會，討論了我們傳統的專線運輸和加急運輸，我們向 8 到 10 個客戶提出了提價要求，並且在過去幾周里，實際上已經獲得了 2.5% 到 4% 的提價。這讓我很興奮。

Is that something that's going to happen on every customer I got? I don't know, but I haven't seen it in four years, and I'm starting to see it. I'm starting to see bids at all-time highs. So you're seeing the customers -- our bids are up 17% since August. Well that don't happen. That's a November, December, January, February event, and it started happening in August and September. Why is that? It's because our customers are concerned about capacity, even though we all need freight right now. So Scott, I'll shut up. As I look at it, I'm more excited than I've ever been about '26, '27, '28. If anybody is ever going to buy a trucker, it's now. If they don't buy truckers now, they don't need to be buying truckers. So that's where I'm at.

這種情況會發生在我接待的每位客戶身上嗎？我不知道，但我已經四年沒見過它了，現在我開始看到了。我看到競價開始創下歷史新高。所以您可以看到客戶的情況——自 8 月以來，我們的出價上漲了 17%。這種情況不會發生。這是11月、12月、1月、2月發生的事件，實際上是從8月和9月開始的。這是為什麼？這是因為我們的客戶擔心運力問題，儘管我們現在都需要貨運。斯科特，我閉嘴了。在我看來，我對 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年的期待比以往任何時候都更加強烈。如果現在要買卡車，那就是現在了。如果他們現在不買卡車司機，他們就沒必要買卡車司機。這就是我目前的處境。

Thanks, Scott. Let me give you a couple of things. David talked a lot about the regulation, and there's no doubt that we're sensing it. And then we've given some color on maybe demand freight going forward. I would say there's a couple of words we're using internally right now.

謝謝你，斯科特。我給你講兩件事。大衛多次談到這項規定，毫無疑問，我們都感受到了它的影響。然後，我們對未來貨運需求可能出現的變化進行了一些展望。我想說，我們目前內部正在使用幾個字。

One is patience. I think we're all going to have some patience, and I'll get a little bit into that. The other is there's going to be some pain before there's some gain and pain in used truck prices and see smaller guys go bankrupt and flood the market, pain with some brokerage compression. But every time in history in this business, there has to be pain before there's gain. And I think that's where we're at.

一是耐心。我想我們都需要一些耐心，我稍後會稍微談到這一點。另一方面，在二手卡車價格出現下跌之前，會經歷一些痛苦，小型卡車公司破產並湧入市場，經紀公司也會因此受到一些衝擊。但縱觀歷史，在這個行業裡，每一次成功前都必須經歷痛苦。我認為這就是我們目前的處境。

On the patient side of things, specific to your spot market question, the week after Secretary Duffy came out and talked about the non-domiciled CDLs, I think you did see spot rates go up and especially in those markets David was talking about. And what happened was a lot of those folks just stayed home. A lot of these non-domiciled CDLs have been issued in a -- they're concentrated in a handful of states. I mean there's some in every state, but there's some West Coast states that had a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs. The reason you hadn't seen the spot rates jump up is that the two largest West Coast states that have the non-domiciled CDLs, they have not -- they're in the process of trying to figure out what are they going to do with the people that have the non-domiciled CDLs.

就病人方面而言，具體到你提出的現貨市場問題，在達菲部長公開談論非居民 CDL 後的一周，我認為你確實看到了現貨價格上漲，尤其是在大衛談到的那些市場。結果就是，很多人都待在家裡。許多非居民商業駕駛執照 (CDL) 都是在少數州頒發的。我的意思是，每個州都有一些，但西海岸的一些州有很多這種非本州居民持有的商業駕駛執照（CDL）。你之所以沒有看到現貨價格上漲，是因為西海岸最大的兩個州（擁有非居民商業駕駛執照）還沒有——他們正在努力弄清楚該如何處理那些擁有非居民商業駕駛執照的人。

And so I think California is supposed to decide in the next five days, they're supposed to direct carriers what to do with those drivers. And so the first 5, 6, 10 days, you had some people that maybe had those type licenses stay home. Well, they've had to get back to work. So they're still out there running around. In the next 5 to 10 days, you're going to -- California is going to tell the carriers, here's what we want you to do.

所以我認為加州應該在接下來的五天內做出決定，指示運輸公司如何處置這些司機。因此，在最初的 5、6、10 天裡，一些可能持有這類駕照的人都待在家裡。他們不得不回去工作了。所以他們還在外面到處亂竄。接下來的 5 到 10 天裡，加州將告訴營運商，我們希望你們這樣做。

Here's the process to do that. And so I think that's when you're going to start seeing some of that capacity exit. And I think on that side, it's probably sooner than later. And then to David's point, the other is you're stopping filling the bucket with new entrants into the market. So I don't know if that helps paint a picture on maybe why the spot rates haven't jumped.

以下是具體步驟。所以我認為，到那時你會看到一些產能退出市場。我認為，從這個角度來看，可能很快就會發生。正如大衛所說，另一個問題是，你不再讓新的競爭者進入市場了。所以我不知道這是否有助於解釋為什麼即期匯率沒有大幅上漲。

But you had some of them stay home right when it came out, then they've gotten back to work. But I think in the next 5 to 10 days, you're going to see some of these states roll out the policies that here's what you do. And I think over 30 days after that is when you'll start seeing some of this capacity exit.

但有些人在疫情剛開始的時候選擇待在家裡，現在他們已經回去上班了。但我認為在接下來的 5 到 10 天內，你會看到一些州推出相關政策，告訴你該怎麼做。我認為在那之後30多天，你會開始看到部分產能退出。

Okay. Super helpful. David, at the risk of getting your blood pressure any higher. I'd like to ask a follow-up if I can. How do I think about like how many of these drivers do you have from just your perspective on enforcement, like it's always been easier to enforce large fleets than mom-and-pop truckers. Like how do you change this? And then like -- but is your perspective here that ultimately, like this is going to be a big help for large fleets? And is it a risk to a brokerage model in general?

好的。非常有用。大衛，這樣做可能會讓你的血壓升高。如果可以的話，我想問一個後續問題。從執法角度來看，我該如何考慮你們有多少這樣的駕駛人呢？畢竟，對大型車隊進行執法總是比對個體卡車司機進行執法容易得多。如何更改這個？然後——但你的觀點是，最終這將對大型艦隊有很大的幫助嗎？這是否會對整個經紀模式構成風險？

Yeah. I mean, we got a $200 million brokerage, and it does concern me because I think led by Duffy at DOT, I think that they're going to -- I think there's going to be enough leading from DOT that is going to go after more of the small carriers that are illegal than it is the big carriers. So yeah, I think that I'm concerned about compression on my margins, on my brokerage. But I think after a period of time, whether that's three months, six months, I don't know, but a period of time that you'll start seeing the asset rates rise very nicely that will offset any of the brokerage compression.

是的。我的意思是，我們有一個價值 2 億美元的經紀公司，這確實讓我感到擔憂，因為我認為在交通部部長達菲的領導下，他們會——我認為交通部會採取足夠的領導措施，將更多精力放在打擊非法的小型運輸公司上，而不是大型運輸公司。是的，我擔心我的保證金和經紀業務會受到壓縮。但我認為過一段時間後，可能是三個月，也可能是六個月，我不知道，但總有一段時間，你會看到資產利率開始大幅上升，這將抵消經紀業務的任何壓縮。

Yeah. I think, Scott, when I was referring to there's going to be some pain before there's gain. I think that, that was probably more on the brokerage side because there will be some pain going through this with a lot of brokerages. And to your point, it should help asset companies more. Brokers make money -- brokers make money when rates are rising hard, when rates are falling hard. And so, where they are getting troubles in the middle and if you got contract rates and hadn't reset --

是的。史考特，我想，我之前說的「在獲得成功之前會經歷一些痛苦」就是這個意思。我認為，這可能更與經紀公司有關，因為許多經紀公司在經歷這個過程時都會感到痛苦。正如你所說，這應該更有利於資產型公司。經紀人賺錢－利率大幅上漲時，經紀人賺錢；當利率大幅下跌時，經紀人也賺錢。所以，如果他們在中間環節遇到問題，而且你簽訂了合同，但還沒有重置，那麼就會出現問題。--

And if the government was not doing nothing, if the government was just going to be on the sidelines, it all go back to the way it's always been for 40 years. But I don't believe that's happening. There's unbelievable amount of pressure, that the government is putting on it, but I think constituents are putting back to the government now saying, am I going to wake up every day to a fatality accident.

如果政府不採取任何行動，而是袖手旁觀，那麼一切都將回到過去 40 年的老樣子。但我不認為這種情況正在發生。政府施加了難以置信的壓力，但我認為選民現在也在向政府施壓，質疑：難道我每天醒來都要面對一起致命事故嗎？

Okay. And then just last one, if I can, just turning to your business. You talked about near-term pain in Q4. Any way to sort of size sort of what you're thinking about for Q4? And I know you've got a lot of like that linehaul LTL business. How is that performing right now?

好的。最後，如果可以的話，我想問貴公司的狀況。您在第四季談到了短期陣痛。能否大致估算一下您對第四季的設想規模？我知道你們有很多類似的零擔幹線運輸業務。目前表現如何？

Yeah. The LTL is down, and it's interesting because forever, LTL would slow down in November, December, that was typical, to be honest with you, from COVID for two, three years, say, '21, '22, '23, we really didn't see the LTLs really slow down a lot. But the LTL guys are slow. I mean, their business has been hit. And I think overall, the volumes are down, and I don't know when that is necessarily going to come back.

是的。零擔貨運量下降了，這很有意思，因為以往零擔貨運量都會在 11 月、12 月放緩，這很正常。說實話，在新冠疫情爆發後的兩三年裡，例如 2021 年、2022 年、2023 年，我們並沒有看到零擔貨運量大幅下降。但是零擔貨運司機速度很慢。我的意思是，他們的生意受到了打擊。而且我認為總體而言，銷量有所下降，我不知道這種情況何時才能恢復。

It will, but I don't know when it's going to be. So yeah, I look at that, that concerns me. I look at how long is the government shutdown going to be on my DoD business because it's only half of what it was. And so, we got to deal with that and then compression on the brokerage side of the business. So I think we got to go through that junk.

會的，但我不知道具體時間。是的，我看到這一點，這讓我很擔憂。我關注政府停擺會持續多久，因為我的國防部業務只有以前的一半了。所以，我們必須處理這個問題，然後還要處理經紀業務的壓縮問題。所以我覺得我們得把那些亂七八糟的東西都處理掉。

In our TEL business, I'm happy about a couple of things. They've grown more business, more sales, more leases is what I'm trying to think of. The customers so far in the last six weeks, which is a good sign, but they also had to take back more trucks than they've had. So I'm seeing some sloppiness in the TEL business that concerns me. And so, I think all that adds up to fourth quarter that it isn't going to be third quarter. It's going to be less than third quarter, and I'll let you all know.

在我們的電信業務中，有兩件事讓我感到高興。我正在思考的是，他們的業務成長了，銷售額提高了，租賃合約也增加了。過去六週以來，客戶的反饋良好，這是一個好兆頭，但他們也不得不收回比以往更多的卡車。所以，我發現電信業務中存在一些馬虎之處，這讓我感到擔憂。所以，我認為所有這些因素加起來就意味著第四季不會是第三季了。應該不到第三季度，我會通知大家的。

Yeah. I think it's too early to put a number on it, Scott, but I would say it's softer than what it seasonably will be for all of the reasons that David talked about, mostly on the truckload side and also on the TEL side. I think from our line of sight and what we have seen, even though it's early in this quarter and then the visibility that we have into the peak, which there's some -- a little bit of good peak in freight in there, but it's not enough to offset some of the negatives that we've seen over the last first two or three weeks of October. So I do think it's unseasonably softer, but I'd be hesitant to put up.

是的。史考特，我覺得現在下結論還為時過早，但我想說，由於大衛提到的所有原因，尤其是卡車運輸方面和TEL運輸方面，目前的狀況比往年同期要好。我認為，從我們目前的觀察和所見來看，儘管現在才本季度初，而且我們對高峰期的可見度也有限，貨運高峰期確實有一些不錯的表現，但這不足以抵消我們在 10 月份前兩三週看到的一些不利因素。所以我覺得它比往年同期要軟一些，但我不會輕易把它掛起來。

That's interesting because I am somewhat optimistic about what I'm seeing about peak business. And some of our customers have already gotten back with us saying that carriers have given back freight to them, which is on the brokerage side. And so that's also interesting to me. So yeah, peak is not going to take care of some of the reductions, but I am optimistic that peak seems like it might be a decent peak for us.

這很有意思，因為我對目前看到的商業高峰期持較為樂觀的態度。我們的一些客戶已經聯絡我們，說承運商已經把貨物退還給了他們，這是經紀公司的問題。所以，這一點也讓我很感興趣。所以，是的，峰值並不能解決所有減排問題，但我樂觀地認為，高峰對我們來說可能是一個不錯的峰值。

Guys, I don't know if you can still hear me, but just so we can hear you.

各位，我不知道你們是否還能聽到我說話，但為了讓我們能聽到你們的聲音。

Okay. Thank you. We're going to put it on mute. Our operator has disappeared.

好的。謝謝。我們將把它靜音。我們的接線員失蹤了。

Yeah, we're trying to see if there's any other questions.

是的，我們正在看看是否還有其他問題。

Maybe you convince the operator who's busy buying trucking stocks.

或許你可以說服那位正忙著買卡車股票的業者。

He is busy. The market is open. We're trying to get the operator to see if they can facilitate any questions. So we'll see what happens.

他很忙。市場開放。我們正在聯絡客服，看看他們是否能解答我們的疑問。所以，我們拭目以待。

Just so there's not dead air, do you want me to ask more questions?

為了避免冷場，你還想讓我問更多問題嗎？

Yes, please.

好的，謝謝。

So sure. I mean, let's talk pricing a little bit. You -- I think you said you're starting to have some bid activity. Just what you're seeing from a pricing standpoint, early thoughts on '26 bid season.

當然可以。我的意思是，我們來談談價格吧。你——我想你說過你開始有一些競標活動了。從定價角度來看，這就是你現在所看到的，也是 2026 年競標季的初步想法。

Scott, it's early. As David said, we're going out to some customers. And I think low single digits is kind of the norm. I mean, we need a lot more than that. Inflation has been significant in '22, '23, '24, '25. And I'm betting the price of trucks is going to go up next year and health insurance and casualty insurance is going to go up. And so, we need a lot more. But I think low single digits, there are customers that are willing to have good active discussions around those numbers just from the recent experience we've had.

斯科特，現在還早。正如大衛所說，我們要去拜訪一些客戶。我認為個位數低位是常態。我的意思是，我們需要的遠不止這些。2022年、2023年、2024年、2025年通貨膨脹率很高。我敢打賭，明年卡車的價格會上漲，健康保險和意外傷害保險的價格也會上漲。所以，我們還需要更多。但我認為，如果降幅達到個位數，根據我們最近的經驗，還是會有一些客戶願意就這些數字展開積極的討論。

Okay. And you made a comment that no one wants to buy trucks right now. What -- you're going -- and you'll be at ATA next week, but what are you doing from a fleet perspective? What are you thinking about from a CapEx standpoint

好的。你曾說過現在沒人想買卡車。什麼？你要去？下週你會去ATA，但從機隊角度來看，你打算做什麼？從資本支出角度來看，您正在考慮什麼？

So a couple of things. Yeah, I'll speak to it and then let David follow up. First off, nobody's pricing -- most years, most of the large fleets already have pricing by this point. But with all the questions around tariffs and there were some announcements in early -- late September, early October about additional potential big truck tariffs. And is that on the whole truck? Is that on parts of the truck? Is that which vendors? There's a lot that's been up in the air. Hopefully, by next week, we'll know more. We're meeting with all the OEMs while out in San Diego.

有兩件事。好的，我會先談談這件事，然後讓大衛跟進。首先，目前還沒有人定價——往年這個時候，大多數大型車隊都已經制定了價格。但是，圍繞關稅的各種問題層出不窮，而且在 9 月初到 10 月初，也有一些關於可能對大型卡車徵收額外關稅的公告。那是指整輛卡車嗎？那是卡車上的零件嗎？是哪些供應商？很多事情都懸而未決。希望下週我們就能知道更多消息。我們在聖地牙哥期間會見了所有原始設備製造商。

And so I think nobody has been placing orders because you don't know what the price is, a; b, the order boards at all these OEMs are very slack right now. I mean, in the fourth quarter, going into next year, order boards are very, very slack on truck and trailer equipment. As far as our fleet numbers, I think our total fleet size in total, it's probably be about the same. We may rationalize a little bit of business if we can't get the margin out of it. From a net CapEx standpoint next year, I'll let you give a math.

所以我覺得沒有人下單，原因有二：一是不知道價格；二是所有這些原始設備製造商的訂單板現在都很閒。我的意思是，到了第四季度，也就是明年年初，卡車和拖車設備的訂單非常非常少。至於我們的車隊數量，我認為我們的車隊總規模可能差不多。如果無法從中獲得利潤，我們可能會對部分業務進行合理化調整。從明年的淨資本支出角度來看，我讓你來算算。

Yeah. I think, one, it's a big question mark. It is going to be somewhere probably net in the neighborhood between $70 million to $80 million, but I would be hesitant to commit to that. I would say that could be subject to change. We have a number of new trucks that we have financed and are sitting on the fence that are ready to go into service.

是的。我認為，首先，這是一個很大的問號。最終淨收益可能在 7,000 萬到 8,000 萬美元之間，但我不敢妄下斷言。我認為這可能會有所改變。我們已經融資購買了一批新卡車，這些卡車已經準備好投入使用，目前仍在觀望中。

And so we have quite a bit of unproductive equipment right now, whether it's new or used. We don't want to fire sell it. We don't -- I think we're in the position to kind of sit on it for a little bit longer and take advantage of a market swing. But at the same time, our fleet, although it aged probably two or three months compared to the prior year, it's a little bit of a misnomer because we've got a lot of new equipment that hasn't gone into service. So our fleet is very, very healthy.

因此，我們現在有很多閒置設備，無論是新的還是二手的。我們不想賤賣它。我們不——我認為我們現在的處境是可以再觀望一段時間，利用市場波動的機會。但同時，雖然我們的車隊與前一年相比可能老化了兩到三個月，但這有點名不副實，因為我們有許多新設備尚未投入使用。所以我們的船隊狀況非常非常好。

Our balance sheet remains very, very healthy, and we're going to buy some equipment. We just -- it's hard to commit to a number when you don't have pricing on it. And I think that gives us a little bit of an advantage over some of the other peers in our group, as we've been pretty consistent about replacement and replacing our fleets in bad times and having a good healthy fleet with the latest and greatest safety equipment on it and the best MPG, if you will, so fuel economy. And so that's what we're going to continue to do. We're going to continue to operate that playbook.

我們的資產負債表依然非常健康，我們將購買一些設備。我們只是——在沒有定價的情況​​下，很難確定一個數字。我認為這讓我們比集團內的其他一些同行略佔優勢，因為我們一直堅持在經濟不景氣時更換車隊，保持車隊的良好狀態，配備最新最好的安全設備，並且燃油經濟性最佳。所以，我們將繼續這樣做。我們將繼續執行這套方案。

And I think we've got a little more flexibility than maybe some of the others in the market to whether it's either delay purchase or reduce purchases next year, but we're just kind of in wait and hold mode in terms of absolute volumes.

我認為，與市場上的其他一些公司相比，我們在推遲購買或減少明年的購買方面擁有更大的靈活性，但就絕對數量而言，我們目前只是處於等待和持有的狀態。

Have you guys tracked on the operator yet?

你們找到運營商了嗎？

No, yeah, there you go, operator.

不，對，就是這樣，操作員。

Jason Seidl, TD Cowen.

Jason Seidl，TD Cowen。

I appreciate you joining the fray again. David, one of the things I love about you, you're just so calm about the markets and not really ever enthused. So change. I wanted to touch a little more on two different things. Can you talk a little bit about the government shutdown in the DoD? You said that business is down about half. Sort of how should we expect that to flow through the P&L? And once the government does reopen, whatever that may be, how quickly do you expect that freight to come back? And then I have a question on sort of capacity.

感謝你再次加入討論。大衛，我最欣賞你的一點就是，你對市場總是那麼冷靜，從不表現出過度的熱情。所以要改變。我想再多談兩件事。能談談國防部政府停擺的情況嗎？你說業務量下降了大約一半。我們該如何預期這會在損益表中反映出來？一旦政府重新開放（無論是什麼形式），你預計貨運量會以多快的速度恢復？然後我還有一個關於容量的問題。

Yeah. So Jason, this is Paul. A couple of things. On the DoD business, I would say about half that business will kind of just be lost. There's kind of the way they move that freight. Some of it is just inventory movements and then some of it is vendor type freight. And so, it's not like the -- some of it will build a backlog that has to be moved eventually and some of it won't. It will just be kind of lost freight. We've moved a lot of those trucks onto a lot of Expedited loads just to keep the trucks moving and keep the drivers getting paid and that kind of stuff. And so I think you'll see a little bit of a spike whenever the government opens back up.

是的。傑森，這位是保羅。有幾件事。就國防部業務而言，我認為大約有一半的業務將會流失。他們運輸貨物的方式就是這樣。一部分是庫存變動，一部分是供應商類型的貨運。所以，情況並非如此——有些事情會積壓，最終必須解決，而有些事情則不會。這基本上就等於白白損失了一批貨物。我們已經把很多卡車轉移到了很多加急貨運任務中，這樣就能確保卡車持續運轉，保證司機能拿到工資等等。所以我認為，一旦政府重新開放，你就會看到需求稍微上升。

But I don't know that it's not going to be a one-for-one makeup. As far as it flowing through the P&L, I think the question is, does if it lasts the whole quarter, it's going to be pretty impactful on Expedited's results. If it's -- if they get something done first week of November, which I guess that's next week at this point, then maybe it will be a little muted. I hate that we've lost the month of October because a lot of these bases shut down around Thanksgiving, a lot of them shut down around Christmas. And so, October is a month that we really, really run hard in that fleet.

但我不知道這是否會是完全的補償。至於它對損益表的影響，我認為問題在於，如果它持續整個季度，是否會對 Expedited 的業績產生相當大的影響。如果——如果他們能在 11 月的第一周完成一些事情，我猜現在看來就是下週了，那麼情況可能會稍微平靜一些。我討厭我們失去了十月份，因為很多軍事基地在感恩節前後關閉，許多軍事基地在聖誕節前後關閉。因此，十月是我們這支艦隊真正全力運轉的月份。

I mean, really, October 1 to about November 15 is when that fleet is really flowing. And so the government shutdown could come at a less opportune time. I mean it's going to hit us. As David said, it kind of stinks, and that's another one of my -- there's pain before the game, but that business will come back.

我的意思是，實際上，10 月 1 日到 11 月 15 日左右是這支艦隊真正出動的時期。因此，政府停擺的時機可能不太好。我的意思是，這終將影響到我們。正如大衛所說，這有點糟糕，這也是我的另一個想法——比賽前會有痛苦，但生意會好起來的。

And I guess turning back to capacity, as Scott mentioned, we're really not seeing much of an impact in the spot market. But I think, obviously, you've seen what we've written. I think that eventually comes back as we keep sort of rolling through the months here. But my question is, what could accelerate this? Is there -- we've heard some smattering that some insurance companies have talked about taking some actions and then some customers have talked about taking some actions in terms of exposure to carriers who might have non-domiciled drivers. How should we sort of frame that up? And what are you hearing in the marketplace?

我想回到產能問題上來，正如史考特所提到的那樣，我們並沒有看到現貨市場受到太大影響。但我想，很顯然，你們已經看到了我們寫的內容。我認為隨著幾個月時間的推移，這種情況最終會好轉。但我的問題是，有什麼因素會加速這個進程？我們聽到一些消息，一些保險公司正在討論採取一些措施，一些客戶也正在討論採取一些措施，以降低與可能擁有非本地駕駛員的承運商相關的風險。我們該如何闡述這個問題呢？你從市場上聽到了什麼消息？

I think everything you just said there, Jason, is in the process of happening. I think you're going to see insurance companies that are not going to insure non-domiciled CDL license. I think that, that will be happening. And as Paul is saying, of course, California is leading it. We're going to hear next week or so what California is planning on doing about it.

傑森，我覺得你剛才說的那些事，都正在發生。我認為你會看到一些保險公司不再為非本州居民持有的商業駕駛執照 (CDL) 提供保險。我認為那件事將會發生。正如保羅所說，加州當然走在了前面。我們大概下週就能聽到加州打算如何應對此事了。

But I think you got insurance companies that are in the process of saying, we're not going to insure this. I guarantee they're sitting around in their offices right now, looking at their book of business, saying, what do we have on the books, and they're going to have to get their hands around that. But the process will be that there's going to be a bunch of folks, who aren't going to have no insures. So I think that, that is one thing that is definitely going to be transpiring, but then it's just going to be pressure from the government owned all the stuff. We didn't talk about cabotage.

但我認為有些保險公司正在表示，我們將不會為這種情況提供保險。我敢肯定，他們現在正坐在辦公室裡，看著他們的業務記錄，心想，我們帳上都有些什麼呢？他們必須得好好研究一下這些紀錄。但過程是這樣的，會有很多人沒有保險。所以我認為，這肯定是會發生的一件事，但之後政府就會施加壓力，控制所有這些事情。我們沒有談到沿海貿易。

I mean, that's unbelievable how much cheating is going on in cabotage. And these people coming out of Mexico and going to Canada and going to the United States is supposed to go straight back and they sit here for a month going back and forth. The government is under that. That's under Christy Dan. They are under that, and that is coming to the top that I think will bring more freight back to us, US carriers.

我的意思是，沿海貿易中作弊的現像如此猖獗，真是令人難以置信。這些人從墨西哥出來，前往加拿大和美國，本應直接返回，但他們卻在這裡來回停留一個月。政府受其約束。那是克里斯蒂·丹的職位。他們目前處於劣勢，而我認為，這種情況的出現將為美國承運商帶來更多貨運量。

There's just a lot of stuff that whether it takes between now, if I was going to throw one it's April, I don't know, only because fourth quarter is virtually over with here. It is what it is. And first quarter gets into the weather. But with the government's heavy hand, of which I agree with, their heavy hands, you are going to see capacity leaving the market, but better than anything, no new capacity coming. I don't know if you saw this, Jason, but we look at a number that is a plus and minus of MC numbers on a weekly basis.

有很多事情要處理，如果我要舉辦一場比賽的話，那大概要到四月份了，我不知道，因為第四季實際上已經結束了。就是這樣。第一季主要討論天氣狀況。但是，在政府的強力幹預下（我同意政府的強力幹預），你會看到產能退出市場，但最重要的是，不會有新的產能進入市場。傑森，我不知道你有沒有看到，但我們每週都會關註一個與 MC 數值相加或相減的數字。

And to give you an idea, for the last few months, that number has been negative 50 to 100 MC -- less MC numbers a week, 50 to 100. Last week, it was over 400 -- 400 less. That was powerful. I look at another number that I keep an eye on. Look at total volume, a report that we look at that has taken all the reports that are coming out on whether it's cash or truck stop this and they accumulate them all and volume is down 17%, but rejections are up almost 2%. What is that saying? This is -- this week volume is down 17%, but rejections are up almost 2%. It's telling you something about capacity. And so that's the kind of stuff that we're looking at as we go forward.

為了讓你們有個概念，在過去的幾個月裡，這個數字是 -50 到 -100 個 MC——每週的 MC 數量減少 50 到 100 個。上週是 400 多萬——比上週少了 400 多萬。那真是震撼人心。我看了另一個我一直在關注的數字。看看總交易量，我們查看了一份報告，該報告匯總了所有關於現金或卡車停靠站交易的報告，並將所有交易量加總，結果顯示交易量下降了 17%，但拒付率上升了近 2%。那句話怎麼說來著？本周成交量下降了 17%，但拒收率卻上升了近 2%。它告訴你一些關於容量的資訊。所以，這就是我們接下來要關注的問題。

Well, David, let's say you're right and the recovery is in April with the start of spring shipping season because you finally get the volume back. Bid season, we're going to be well into that already and probably not at exceedingly favorable rates at this stage. What's your ability to go back to the customers and say, hey, look, it's June, the market is different, right?

好吧，大衛，假設你是對的，隨著春季發貨旺季的開始，業務將在四月份復甦，因為銷量終於恢復了。競標季已經來臨，我們可能已經進入了競標階段，而且在這個階段利率可能不會特別優惠。你是否有能力回到客戶面前說：“嘿，現在是六月，市場情況不同了，對吧？”

100%, not 99%, 100%. I mean, I love my customers. Nobody love my customers like I love my customers. But at the same time, if I've not raised you in four years, if I cannot make an argument that says three months into a pathetic rate, then I don't have the ability to be able to get a rate increase when the market allows me, then we have no relationship. And I don't want them in my portfolio.

100%，不是99%，是100%。我的意思是，我愛我的顧客。沒有人像我一樣愛我的顧客。但同時，如果我四年都沒能把你撫養成人，如果我不能提出理由說明，在經歷了三個月可憐的利率之後，我也沒有能力在市場允許的情況下獲得利率上漲，那麼我們就沒有任何關係了。我不想把它們放在我的投資組合裡。

And so that, you will -- but it won't be me. It will be the entire industry. So as I look at that on the rates, Jason, that we talked about in DoD, and we got a margin compression on this, and we got to go through some difficult times that I think -- I think it is -- I'm happy with it. I'm very pleased with it because as I step back from this junk that we're having to go through and -- or the negatives or whatever word you want to use, and I look at how much positive demand opportunities, foreign investments, accelerated depreciation, as I look at rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as I look at all this domestic investment that Trump is bringing, as I look at the Bill Back America Beautiful or whatever they're calling the -- whatever that bill is called.

所以，你會的——但不會是我。這將影響整個行業。所以，傑森，就我們之前在國防部討論過的費率而言，我們在這方面的利潤空間被壓縮了，我們經歷了一些困難時期，但我認為——我認為——我對結果很滿意。我對此非常滿意，因為當我從我們正在經歷的這些糟心事——或者說負面因素，或者你想用什麼詞來形容——中抽身出來，看到積極的需求機會、外國投資、加速貶值，看到美聯儲的降息，看到特朗普帶來的所有這些國內投資，看到“美麗美國法案”（或者他們稱之為那項法案叫什麼欣慰）時，我感到非常什麼欣慰）。

I mean, it is going to be -- and with ISM being down below 50 for three years, with what Trump is doing on bringing back plants, I promise you, interest rates going down, it is going to feed the economy with capacity leaving. So that's why I'm excited. A perfect storm.

我的意思是，情況將會是這樣的——ISM 指數連續三年低於 50，加上川普正在採取措施恢復工廠生產，我向你保證，利率下降，這將刺激經濟成長，防止產能流失。這就是我感到興奮的原因。一場完美風暴。

I can certainly see it. And listen, I don't have 50 years in trucking, but I have just over 30 years. So it's -- it's definitely one of the more interesting times I've seen for sure. But listen, gentlemen, I appreciate the time as always, and I want to stay safe out there.

我當然看得出來。聽著，我雖然沒有50年的卡車運輸經驗，但我也有30多年的經驗了。所以，這絕對是我見過的最有趣的時代之一。但是，各位先生，我一如既往地感謝你們抽出時間，我也希望大家在外面都能平安無事。

Reed Seay, Stephens.

里德·西伊，史蒂芬斯。

You've given a lot of good color, but I wanted to come back and touch on some of this government business. You mentioned like the volume will come back once the government comes back. But here in the fourth quarter, let's say maybe we get a shutdown here at the end of the month. Could we potentially see a catch-up of these volumes in 4Q? Or how would you expect maybe the cadence following a return of these volumes?

你已經提供了很多精彩的見解，但我還想回來談談一些政府事務。你之前提到過，一旦政府恢復運作，交易量就會回升。但是，假設在第四季度，也就是月底，我們可能會遇到停工。我們是否有可能在第四季看到這些銷量出現回升？或者，您認為這些書籍回歸後的出版節奏會是怎麼樣的呢？

Yeah. Reed, here's what I'd say. That's then to go and I speak to that. It won't be a full catch-up. It'd be a partial. There could be a partial catch-up. And part of what handcuffs the catch-up is these bases are -- they're going to shut down around Thanksgiving and they're going to shut down around Christmas. And so just the way the calendar is going to fall, it's going to hamper a full recovery and just some other things just around the nature of the freight. I mean, it's still moving. It won't be a full catch-up. You can have a partial catch-up if the government reopened sooner than later.

是的。里德，我會這麼說。然後我就去跟他們談這件事。這不會是完全趕上。那隻是部分完成。可能會有部分趕上的情況。阻礙追趕的部分原因是這些基地——它們將在感恩節前後關閉，也將在聖誕節前後關閉。因此，就目前的情況來看，這將阻礙全面復甦，而且貨運的性質也會帶來一些其他問題。我的意思是，它還在動。這不會是完全趕上。如果政府能盡快重新開放，你或許可以部分趕上進度。

And then it looks like during the quarter, costs were moving in the right direction. Can you talk about maybe some actions that you've taken on the cost side here in 3Q? And maybe is there any more to come in 4Q if we have demand continue to be weak in the LTL or in certain parts of the business?

然後，看起來本季成本正朝著正確的方向發展。您能否談談您在第三季在成本控制方面採取的一些措施？如果零擔運輸或某些業務領域的需求持續疲軟，那麼第四季是否還會有更多成長？

We've continued to try to make sure our headcount matched our -- was matching our freight volumes and tried to make sure we weren't getting frivolous on overhead. We've really shut down any significant growth in overhead. We did that earlier in the year, maybe even the end of last year, knowing this market was continuing to drag out. We saw -- I would say we're happy with maintenance costs, some things we've done on those and to really manage them down. And so I would say it's just more of blocking and tackling Reed and trying to make sure that we're battening down the hatches for the -- we've been in this storm for 36 to 40 months now. You can't be getting that over your skis on costs.

我們一直努力確保我們的人員數量與我們的貨運量相匹配，並努力確保我們在管理費用上不會出現不必要的浪費。我們已經徹底遏制了營運成本的任何顯著成長。今年早些時候，甚至可能是去年年底，我們採取了這種做法，因為我們知道這個市場會持續低迷。我們看到——我想說我們對維護成本感到滿意，我們在這方面做了一些事情，真正降低了成本。所以我覺得現在更多的是要阻止里德的進攻，並確保我們做好充分的準備——我們已經在這場風暴中掙扎了36到40個月了。你不能把那筆費用算在滑雪板外面。

Yeah, I agree. There were some call-outs. I'll just add on to what Paul was saying. There were some call-outs to some pretty hard cost-cutting decisions in the quarter for which we provided a table in there that kind of reconciled those. But those were difficult decisions. But I would also say that throughout the year, we've been very cost conscious and some of the headwinds that we saw probably earlier in the year, whether it's first quarter or second quarter, were equipment-related costs.

是的，我同意。期間有一些報警電話。我只想補充保羅剛才說的內容。本季有一些關於大幅削減成本的決定被提出，我們在報告中提供了一個表格來解釋這些決定。但這些都是艱難的決定。但我還想說，在過去的一年中，我們一直非常注重成本控制，我們在今年早些時候，無論是第一季還是第二季度，遇到的一些不利因素都是與設備相關的成本。

And just as we grow certain of our dedicated fleets and we start to expand geographies, and it takes a while to begin to optimize your cost profile in those geographies and within those fleets and -- we're trying to find the sweet spot. We're trying to develop the amount of density needed to efficiently operate that equipment. And there was some cost in the quarter in Q3 related to some start-up costs, I would say, for shops and new hires, shop salaries and things like that, that we think will make us more efficient in the long run.

就像我們對自己的專屬車隊越來越有信心，並開始擴大業務範圍一樣，我們需要一段時間才能開始優化這些地區和這些車隊的成本組成——我們正在努力找到最佳平衡點。我們正在努力開發出能夠有效運作該設備所需的密度。第三季也出現了一些與啟動成本相關的支出，例如店鋪和新員工的薪資、店鋪員工薪資等等，我們認為從長遠來看，這些支出將使我們更有效率。

So we continue to invest in the things that are going to return the right capital to our shareholders. It's just clunky. And I will say there was some clunkiness in the quarter. But I think longer term, as we continue to grow that business, you're going to see some efficiencies from it.

因此，我們將繼續投資那些能為股東帶來合理回報的項目。它用起來很笨拙。我得說，這一季度有些地方略顯笨拙。但我認為從長遠來看，隨著我們不斷發展這項業務，你會看到它帶來的效率提升。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

Just some quick kind of look ahead here. What are you expecting to hear from the other carriers at ATA that might be a little different than what you were thinking a couple of weeks ago?

這裡只是簡單地展望一下未來。您預計從ATA的其他航空公司聽到什麼消息？這些消息可能與您幾週前的想法略有不同？

I think it's just going to be an add-on Jeff; of everything we've talked about today. I think you've got motor carriers that are mad at. I think you got motor carriers that are happy with what the government is doing. And I think that, that's going to be the tone at ATA. I really do. Then the side note is going to be OEMs, what are we going to do about trucks. I think that will be -- I think that's going to be the two pressing issues. Don't you, Paul?

傑夫，我覺得這只是我們今天討論的所有內容的補充。我認為有些運輸公司對此很生氣。我認為有些運輸公司對政府的做法感到滿意。我認為，這將會是ATA的基調。我真的這麼認為。然後，旁注將討論原始設備製造商（OEM），我們該如何應對卡車問題。我認為這將是——我認為這將是兩個緊迫的問題。保羅，難道你不這麼認為嗎？

Yeah, truck. I think it's going to be government regulation. It's going to be how bad has inflation been over the last 36 to 42 months that you haven't been able to get in rates and regulation trucks and inflation that has been a recovery in rates. That will be the three big talking points.

對，卡車。我認為最終會是政府監管。過去 36 到 42 個月的通貨膨脹有多嚴重，將決定你是否能夠獲得利率和監管方面的支持，以及通貨膨脹是否導致了利率的復甦。以上將是三個主要的討論要點。

And then just one follow-up question because I know a lot of questions were asked by Scott Group. The shares are about 9 times earnings right now, give or take. I know it frustrates you. It just is what it is. I know the balance sheet is in good shape, but what are you thinking in terms of share repurchase here? I mean, you don't want to get over your skis and buying them in a tough environment. On the other hand, shares appear like a bit of a gift at these valuations for a buyback.

最後還有一個後續問題，因為我知道 Scott Group 提出了許多問題。目前該股的本益比約為9倍左右。我知道這讓你很沮喪。事情就是這樣。我知道公司資產負債表狀況良好，但您對目前的股票回購計畫有什麼想法？我的意思是，你肯定不想在惡劣的環境下購買滑雪板。另一方面，以目前的估值來看，股票回購似乎有點超值。

No, I agree with you. I think our shares are highly discounted. And I think there's a lot of potential value there. To your point, the balance sheet is in good shape. Our debt today in terms of EBITDA leverage is just over 2 times. We -- for a variety of reasons, we bought back a ton of stock. In the first half of the year, we had an earn-out payment, and we front-loaded to avoid some tariffs on almost all of our equipment. And so I do think our margin -- our debt potentially, just call it, free cash flow, if you will, maintenance CapEx and cash from ops, cash flow from operations will improve in the fourth quarter and will allow us opportunities. And I don't want to commit. We do have some availability under our share repurchase program that was approved by the Board.

不，我同意你的看法。我認為我們的股票被嚴重低估了。我認為這裡蘊藏著巨大的潛在價值。正如您所說，資產負債表狀況良好。就 EBITDA 槓桿率而言，我們目前的債務略高於 2 倍。由於各種原因，我們回購了大量股票。今年上半年，我們有一筆獲利支付款項，我們提前支付了幾乎所有設備的款項，以避免繳納部分關稅。因此，我認為我們的利潤率——我們的債務（姑且稱之為自由現金流）、維護性資本支出和營運現金流——將在第四季度有所改善，並為我們帶來機會。我不想做出承諾。我們確實有一些股份回購計劃可供使用，該計劃已獲得董事會批准。

But I don't want to commit to say that we're going to buy back any of that, but we have a full range of options that we've exercised in the past, whether that's M&A or whether that's share repurchases and continuation of dividends. And we feel like our formula is working, and we're going to stick with that.

但我不想承諾我們會回購任何股份，但我們擁有過去曾行使過的各種選擇，無論是併購或股票回購和繼續發放股利。我們覺得我們的方法行之有效，我們會堅持下去。

At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to Tripp for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題了。我將把電話轉回給特里普，讓他做總結發言。

All right. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us for the third quarter earnings call for Covenant Logistics. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much.

好的。感謝各位參加 Covenant Logistics 第三季財報電話會議。我們期待下個季度與您再次洽談。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。