CubeSmart (CUBE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Colby and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome you to the CubeSmart third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions). I'll now turn the call over to Josh Schutzer, Vice President of Finance.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。我叫科爾比,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在,我謹代表 CubeSmart 公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)現在我將把電話交給財務副總裁喬許‧舒策爾。

  • Josh Schutzer - Investor Relations

    Josh Schutzer - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Colby. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to CubeSmart's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. Participants on today's call include Chris Marr, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Martin, Chief Financial Officer. Our prepared remarks will be followed by a Q&A session.

    謝謝你,科爾比。各位早安。歡迎參加CubeSmart 2025年第三季財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長克里斯·馬爾和財務長提姆·馬丁。我們將作完準備好的演講稿後,進行問答環節。

  • In addition to our earnings release, which was issued yesterday evening, supplemental financial data is available under the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.cubesmart.com. The company's remarks will include certain forward-looking statements regarding earnings and strategy that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

    除了昨晚發布的獲利報告外,該公司網站 www.cubesmart.com 的「投資者關係」欄位也提供了補充財務數據。公司聲明中將包含一些關於獲利和策略的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及風險、不確定性和其他因素,可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

  • The risks and factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are provided in documents the company furnishes to or filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Form 8-K we filed this morning, together with our earnings release filed with the Form 8-K and the Risk Factors section in the company's annual report on Form 10-K. In addition, the company's remarks include reference to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in the third-quarter financial supplement posted on the company's website at www.cubesmart.com.

    可能導致我們的實際業績與前瞻性聲明存在重大差異的風險和因素,已在公司向美國證券交易委員會提供或提交的文件中列出,特別是我們今天早上提交的 8-K 表格,以及與 8-K 表格一起提交的收益公告和公司 10-K 表格年度報告中的“風險因素”部分。此外,該公司聲明中也提到了非GAAP指標。GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之間的調整表可在公司網站 www.cubesmart.com 上發布的第三季財務補充資料中找到。

  • I will now turn the call over to Chris.

    現在我將把通話交給克里斯。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Thank you, Josh. Happy Halloween, and welcome, everyone, to our third quarter call. It was a very solid third quarter for Cube, which resulted in guidance increases across our key same-store and earnings metrics. Across all markets, our existing customer KPIs remain strong with key credit and attrition metrics remaining consistent within historical normal ranges. We are continuing to field diminishing headwinds from new supply as the stores placed in service over the last 3 years lease up and the forward pipeline continues shrinking.

    謝謝你,喬許。萬聖節快樂!歡迎各位參加我們的第三季電話會議。Cube 第三季業績表現非常穩健,因此我們提高了對關鍵同店銷售額和獲利指標的預期。在所有市場中,我們現有的客戶關鍵績效指標依然強勁,關鍵信用和流失指標均維持在歷史正常範圍內。隨著過去 3 年投入使用的門市陸續出租,以及未來專案儲備不斷減少,我們持續面臨來自新供應的阻力逐漸減弱的局面。

  • As evident by 2 consecutive quarters of improved guidance expectations, the year has played out a bit better than we expected, which we attribute to the lessening impact of new supply, a more constructive pricing environment during our busy rental season and the continued health of the consumer. We foresee continued gradual improvement in operational metrics. We are not anticipating a catalyst for a sharp reacceleration. We are prepared and operating under the expectation that the stabilizing trends as well as deliveries of new stores, will vary by market. Market level performance was similar to what we have been discussing for the last couple of quarters.

    從連續兩季業績預期上調可以看出,今年的業績比我們預期的要好一些,這歸功於新增供應的影響減弱、租賃旺季期間價格環境更加有利以及消費者持續保持健康。我們預計營運指標將持續逐步改善。我們預計不會出現引發經濟急劇復甦的催化劑。我們已做好準備,並預計穩定趨勢以及新店交貨量將因市場而異。市場層面的表現與我們過去幾季一直在討論的情況類似。

  • Top performers continue to be the more urban mid-Atlantic and Northeast markets, the East Coast of Florida is experiencing stabilizing trends and some of the Sunbelt markets are still finding their footing. In summary, it's a slow, steady stabilization without a catalyst for rapid acceleration, just like we laid out when we entered the year. We've seen some better pricing power that started earlier in the year for the reasons I've previously shared, while overall demand levels are mostly stable, but not growing significantly. It takes time for improving fundamentals to flow through to revenue with only 4% to 5% monthly customer churn, and this was the first quarter since Q1 2022 where move-in rates in the same-store portfolio were positive year-over-year. Assuming these stabilizing trends continue through the end of the year, we should be on improved footing heading into 2026.

    表現最佳的仍然是中大西洋和東北部的城市化市場,佛羅裡達東海岸的趨勢趨於穩定,而一些陽光地帶的市場仍在摸索前進。總而言之,這是一個緩慢而穩定的穩定過程,沒有快速加速的催化劑,正如我們在年初所設想的那樣。由於我之前分享過的原因,我們看到今年早些時候出現了一些更好的定價能力,而整體需求水平基本上穩定,但並沒有顯著增長。基本面的改善需要時間才能轉化為收入,每月客戶流失率僅為 4% 至 5%,而且這是自 2022 年第一季以來,同店入住率首次同比增長。假設這些穩定趨勢能夠持續到年底,那麼進入 2026 年,我們的處境應該會有所改善。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Tim Martin, for his commentary.

    現在我想把電話交給我們的財務長提姆·馬丁,請他發表一下看法。

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Chris. Good morning, and thank you to everyone for taking the time to join us today. For the quarter, we performed in line with our expectations, reporting FFO per share as adjusted of $0.65. Same-store revenues declined 1% compared to last year with average occupancy for our same-store portfolio, down 80 basis points to 89.9%. Same-store operating expenses grew just 0.3% over last year, again, reflecting our keen focus on expense control.

    謝謝你,克里斯。早安,感謝各位今天抽出時間參加我們的活動。本季度,我們的業績符合預期,經調整後的每股FFO為0.65美元。同店營收較去年同期下降1%,同店平均入住率下降80個基點至89.9%。同店營運費用較去年僅成長 0.3%,再次反映了我們對費用控制的高度重視。

  • We saw favorable year-over-year variances in utilities expenses and in property insurance following our successful renewal back in May, which we discussed last quarter. So negative 1% revenue growth combined with 0.3% expense growth yielded negative 1.5% same-store NOI growth for the quarter. From an external growth perspective, we're starting to see a little momentum here late in the year as we're under contract to acquire 3 stores in the fourth quarter. We also completed and opened our joint venture development in Portchester, New York during the quarter and are scheduled to open our project in New Rochelle, New York during the fourth quarter On the third-party management front, we had another productive quarter, adding 46 stores to our platform, bringing us to 863 stores under management at quarter end. On the balance sheet, we successfully completed our issuance of $450 million of 10-year senior unsecured notes on August 20.

    繼五月成功續約之後(我們在上個季度討論過此事),我們在公用事業支出和財產保險方面看到了同比有利的變化。因此,-1% 的收入成長加上 0.3% 的支出成長,導致該季度同店淨營業收入 (NOI) 下降了 1.5%。從外部成長的角度來看,我們開始看到一些成長勢頭,因為我們已經簽訂了合同,將在第四季度收購 3 家門市。本季度,我們在紐約州波特切斯特的合資開發項目也已竣工並投入使用,我們計劃在第四季度開放我們在紐約州新羅謝爾的項目。在第三方管理方面,我們迎來了一個富有成效的季度,我們的平台新增了 46 家門市,使我們在季度末管理的門市總數達到 863 家。在資產負債表方面,我們於 8 月 20 日成功完成了 4.5 億美元的 10 年期優先無擔保票據的發行。

  • The offering has a yield to maturity of 5.29% and was our first time back to the market in 4 years. We were delighted with the execution and delighted with the support we received from our fixed income investor base. Our 2025 notes mature later this month, and we intend to satisfy those initially through borrowings under our unsecured credit facility and then ultimately term that out by accessing the bond market again in the coming months. Our leverage levels remain quite conservative with net debt to EBITDA at 4.7x at quarter end. From a guidance perspective, we updated our full year expectations and underlying assumptions in our press release last evening.

    本次發行的到期收益率為 5.29%,這是我們 4 年來首次重返市場。我們對執行情況非常滿意,也對我們固定收益投資者的支持感到非常滿意。我們的 2025 年票據將於本月稍後到期,我們打算首先透過無擔保信貸安排下的借款來償還這些票據,然後最終在未來幾個月透過再次進入債券市場來償還這些票據。我們的槓桿水準仍然相當保守,季度末淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率為 4.7 倍。從業績指引的角度來看,我們在昨晚的新聞稿中更新了全年預期和基本假設。

  • Highlights of the guidance changes include a $0.01 raise at the midpoint of our FFO per share as adjusted. On same-store revenue growth, we improved the midpoint of our guidance range. Our expense growth guidance range improved as well with a revised midpoint of 1.5% for the year. All of that translates into improved same-store NOI expectations for the year with a revised midpoint of negative 1.25%. Picking up on Chris' comments, we expect trends to continue to stabilize through the remainder of the year, putting us on better footing heading into 2026 than where we entered this year.

    此次業績指引調整的重點包括將調整後每股 FFO 中位數上調 0.01 美元。在同店營收成長方面,我們提高了預期範圍的中位數。我們的支出成長預期範圍也有所改善,年度中位數為 1.5%。所有這些都轉化為今年同店淨營業收入預期的改善,修正後的中位數為負 1.25%。承接克里斯的評論,我們預計今年剩餘時間趨勢將繼續趨於穩定,這將使我們在進入 2026 年時比今年年初時處於更好的基礎。

  • Our guidance implies negative revenue growth in Q4, although acceleration from Q3 at the midpoint. While we're still not anticipating things snapping all the way back to normalized levels of growth quickly, we're seeing encouraging signs that are starting to flow through the portfolio. Thanks again for joining us on the call this morning. Happy Halloween. And at this time, Colby, let's open up the call for some questions.

    我們的預測表明,第四季度營收將出現負成長,但中點數值將比第三季有所加快。雖然我們仍然不指望成長能迅速恢復到正常水平,但我們看到一些令人鼓舞的跡象開始在投資組合中顯現。再次感謝您今天上午參加我們的電話會議。萬聖節快樂。科爾比,現在讓我們開始提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Samir Khanal, Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)薩米爾·卡納爾,美國銀行。

  • Samir Khanal - Analyst

    Samir Khanal - Analyst

  • Chris, I guess just how are you thinking about the balance between rate and occupancy right now in an environment where demand seems to be stable as you try to get that new customer in the door?

    克里斯,我想問的是,在需求似乎穩定的環境下,你如何看待房價和入住率之間的平衡,同時又想吸引新客戶呢?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • So ultimately, the systems are focusing in on maximizing the revenue from each customer. And so trying to find that balance. And it varies by market. So when you think about those 2 levers rate and occupancy, you have the elasticity of demand that one has to deal with. And so when we look at those markets that we would describe as having been solid for a while, kind of the rock stars in this part of the cycle where you're getting both rate and occupancy.

    因此,歸根結底,這些系統的目標是最大限度地提高每個客戶的收入。所以,我們要努力找到這種平衡。而且不同市場的情況也不一樣。所以,當你考慮入住率和入住率這兩個槓桿時,你就需要考慮需求彈性了。因此,當我們審視那些我們認為已經穩定一段時間的市場時,就會發現它們就像是這個週期中的明星,既能獲得高房價又能獲得高入住率。

  • I'd call out New York City, Washington, D.C. MSA, Chicago, then you have those markets that are stabilizing, so their rate and occupancy are moving in a good direction, albeit still perhaps down year-over-year. And those examples would be Miami and L.A., Los Angeles. And then those markets that are still trying to find their footing where, again, the systems every day are trying to navigate through that dynamic of new move-in customer rate versus occupancy and testing is the demand there at any price. And those would be the same markets we've talked about all year, Atlanta Phoenix, Cape Coral, Charlotte, the Sunbelt market.

    我會特別提到紐約市、華盛頓特區大都會區、芝加哥,這些市場正在趨於穩定,因此它們的房價和入住率正朝著好的方向發展,儘管可能仍然同比下降。例如邁阿密和洛杉磯。而那些仍在努力站穩腳跟的市場,每天都在努力應對新入住客戶率與入住率之間的動態關係,並且測試表明,無論價格如何,那裡的需求都在增長。這些市場正是我們今年一直在討論的,包括亞特蘭大、鳳凰城、科勒爾角、夏洛特以及陽光地帶市場。

  • So it really varies quite a lot by market as the systems try to find that balance.

    因此,由於各個系統都在努力尋找平衡點,所以不同市場的情況差異很大。

  • Samir Khanal - Analyst

    Samir Khanal - Analyst

  • And maybe as a follow-up here, I know you talked about moving rates that were positive in the quarter, kind of 2.5% better on rate versus occupancy. I mean -- can you provide some color around on October as well? Were you seeing kind of trends in October?

    或許可以補充一點,我知道您提到本季房價上漲了,入住率提高了 2.5%。我的意思是──您能否也介紹一下十月份的情況?您在十月觀察到什麼趨勢了嗎?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. So the occupancy gap to last year has contracted from the end of the third quarter as of yesterday, were down 100 basis points from where we were at this point last year. And the average rent on rentals that 2.5% that you quoted for the quarter in October is kind of in that 1.9 2% kind of range.

    是的。因此,截至昨天,第三季末的入住率與去年同期相比有所下降,比去年同期下降了 100 個基點。而您提到的 10 月季度平均租金漲幅 2.5%,實際上大致在 1.9% 到 2% 的範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

    Nicholas Yulico,加拿大豐業銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • This is [Peter Feilim]. On your last call, you said that most demand still comes from traditional search and you're working with your partners or Gemini integration. So what percentage of fleets and bookings are now AI influenced today? And how does overall the cost per AI leads compared to traditional search engine leads so far?

    這是[彼得費利姆]上次通話中,您提到大部分需求仍然來自傳統搜索,您正在與合作夥伴或 Gemini 整合進行合作。那麼,如今有多少比例的車隊和預訂受到人工智慧的影響?那麼,到目前為止,人工智慧帶來的每個潛在客戶的成本與傳統搜尋引擎帶來的潛在客戶相比如何?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. The leads coming through the LLM, which is primarily ChatGPT at this point for us are about less than 1%.

    是的。目前,透過 LLM(主要是 ChatGPT)獲得的潛在客戶數量不到 1%。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Got it. And then you also mentioned last call that merchant builder exit wave is kind of coming to the market. And just trying to understand whether it has intensified recently? And what does it mean for you and kind of for your potential acquisition pool?

    知道了。然後您在上一次通話中也提到,商家建設工具的退出浪潮即將席捲市場。我只是想了解這種情況最近是否加劇?那對你以及你的潛在收購對象又意味著什麼?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • I'm sorry, I think we got a little bit more clarity on the question, if we could. Merchant builder sellers?

    抱歉,我想如果我們能更清楚地說明一下這個問題的話。商家建商賣家?

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Yes, yes, sellers, yes. Whether you can see now more of them or not really versus, for example, Q2?

    是的,是的,賣家們,是的。與例如 Q2 相比,你現在是否能看到更多這樣的情況?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. No. I haven't really seen a change. Again, there is no and there typically isn't like significant duress in our sector. And so I think what you have is folks who may have opened a store in 2022, where they were underwriting cash flows based on the spectacular storage performance during COVID are clearly not meeting their pro formas.

    是的。不。我沒看到什麼改變。再次強調,我們這個行業目前沒有,而且通常不會面臨重大壓力。因此,我認為現在的情況是,那些在 2022 年開設門市的人,他們根據新冠疫情期間出色的倉儲表現來預測現金流,但顯然他們並沒有達到預期目標。

  • But I think what we're finding is everyone is just looking for ways to extend out and anticipate stabilizing trends and better times ahead and financial institutions for the most part are cooperating.

    但我認為我們發現,大家都在尋找延長期限的方法,並期待穩定的趨勢和更美好的未來,而金融機構在很大程度上也在配合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Todd Thomas, KeyBanc.

    Todd Thomas,KeyBanc。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • Chris, your comment about the improving trends and third quarter being the first period of higher move-in rents and it seems like that continued in October. Your guidance assumes an improving revenue growth trend in 4Q, albeit still negative. You mentioned that, but just your comments overall, suggesting that, that trend of improving revenue growth, early sort of read into '26, is it fair to assume that you would expect also equal that trend to continue from here just given the 4% to 5% churn and the time it takes for that to translate to revenue growth? Is that how you're thinking about it at this point in the cycle?

    克里斯,你提到市場趨勢正在改善,第三季度是入住租金首次上漲的時期,而且這種情況似乎在十月仍在繼續。您的預測是基於第四季度營收成長趨勢有所改善的假設,儘管仍為負成長。您提到了這一點,但就您整體的評論而言,您暗示,收入增長的趨勢在2026年早期有所改善,考慮到4%到5%的客戶流失率以及將其轉化為收入增長所需的時間,是否可以合理地假設您也預期這種趨勢會從現在開始繼續下去?你在這個週期的這個階段是這樣想的嗎?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. As you think about '26 macro, again, assuming the consumer health remains where it is, the economy continues to do okay, we would anticipate that the trend from Q3 to Q4 -- and again, we talked about in Q2 that Q3 had a little bit of an anomaly in that was going to create that [decel] from the prior quarter. But yes, that trend should continue. Again, do we inflect positive in same-store revenue growth as we sit here today? Yes. When might that occur? Again, as we sit here today, I would conservatively expect that's probably the back half of 2026.

    是的。展望 2026 年宏觀經濟,假設消費者健康狀況保持不變,經濟繼續保持良好勢頭,我們預計從第三季度到第四季度的趨勢——我們在第二季度也討論過,第三季度存在一些異常情況,這將導致與上一季相比出現[減速]。是的,這種趨勢應該會持續下去。那麼,就目前的情況來看,同店營收成長是否為正值?是的。這種情況可能何時發生?再次強調,就目前的情況來看,我保守估計那大概會在 2026 年下半年。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • Okay. And then some of your peers, I think, ran promotions are implemented, newer discounting strategies during the quarter. I was just wondering if you can speak to whether [Q] participated or what discounting strategies might have been implemented during the peak season and how you're thinking about pricing promotions and discounting in the off-peak season as occupancy typically pulls back a bit here.

    好的。然後,我認為你們的一些同行在本季度實施了促銷活動和新的折扣策略。我只是想問一下,[Q] 是否參與了促銷活動,或者在旺季期間可能實施了哪些折扣策略,以及在淡季期間,由於入住率通常會有所下降,您是如何考慮定價促銷和折扣的。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. So I guess there was some new vernacular introduced recently with this gross net kind of concept. The 2.5% gross move-in rate year-over-year growth that we saw is -- for us, it is also the net. We have not had any change in our discounting.

    是的。所以我覺得最近引入了一些新的術語,像是「總淨值」這個概念。我們看到的 2.5% 的年均毛入住率成長——對我們來說,也是淨成長率。我們的折扣政策沒有任何改變。

  • Todd Thomas - Analyst

    Todd Thomas - Analyst

  • Okay. Are you changing your promotional offerings, though or changing your discount strategies at all? Okay.

    好的。你們會改變促銷活動或調整折扣策略嗎?好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

    你的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Juan Sanabria。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • Just on the acquisition side, a couple of your peers have become more aggressive, talk about more opportunities or deal flow. Just curious what you're seeing and/or willingness or appetite to increase the external investments.

    就收購方面而言,你們的一些同業變得更加積極主動,談論著更多的收購機會或交易機會。我只是好奇您看到了什麼,以及您是否願意或有意願增加外部投資。

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, Juan. Appreciate the question. I guess we have 3 stores under contract, so that's movement in the right direction. I think what we have seen and we've talked about here for the past several quarters is pretty consistent view from the buying side of the table as to what return thresholds look like. I don't think that's changed much at all.

    謝謝你,胡安。感謝您的提問。我想我們已經簽了3家門市的合同,這是朝著正確方向邁出的一步。我認為,過去幾個季度以來,我們看到並討論過的,買方對回報門檻的看法相當一致。我認為情況並沒有太大變化。

  • It hasn't for us. I don't think it's changed much for others either. I think the change is that the seller side of the equation has gotten a little bit more constructive from the buyer's perspective, and you're starting to see things move a little bit. I think you saw that from some of our peers. I think you see that from us with the 3 stores that we have under contract.

    對我們來說並非如此。我認為對其他人來說,情況也沒有太大變化。我認為改變在於,賣方方面從買方的角度出發變得更加積極主動,事情開始有所進展。我想你已經從我們的一些同行身上看到了這一點。我想從我們目前簽約的3家店就能看出這一點。

  • So nothing -- I wouldn't say there's any earth-shattering move other than the market becomes a little bit more constructive as the gap between buyer and seller has shrunk to the point where you're starting to see some things get done.

    所以沒什麼大事發生——除了市場變得更加積極,買賣雙方之間的差距縮小到一定程度,一些事情開始得以完成之外,我不會說有什麼驚天動地的舉動。

  • Juan Sanabria - Analyst

    Juan Sanabria - Analyst

  • And then just as a follow-up, your rent per occupied square foot was strong in the quarter, up 2.4%, quarter-over-quarter flat year-over-year better than peers. What do you think allowed you to push that in place rate relative to the industry a bit stronger?

    另外,貴公司本季每平方英尺出租面積的租金表現強勁,季增 2.4%,較去年同期持平,優於同業。您認為是什麼因素使你們的現房率相對於行業平均更高?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. I think, again, you're just -- everybody's system, I assume, is trying to do the same thing, which is find that balance between the levels of demand that are out there for storage and then pricing to capture that customer as well as the marketing tools to capture that customer. I think some of it is portfolio construct, again, where we are at this part of the cycle. Our strategy and our quality focus, I think is very helpful to our results. And then part of it actually is just sort of the normal seasonality that one would expect to see from Q2 into Q3.

    是的。我認為,你只是——我假設每個人的系統都在嘗試做同樣的事情,那就是在儲存需求水平和吸引客戶的定價以及吸引客戶的行銷工具之間找到平衡。我認為部分原因在於投資組合的構建,這也與我們目前所處的周期階段有關。我認為,我們的策略和對品質的重視對我們的成績非常有幫助。而其中一部分其實只是人們預期會在第二季到第三季之間出現的正常季節性現象。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wolfe with Citi.

    你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

  • Eric Wolfe - Analyst

    Eric Wolfe - Analyst

  • I think you said a moment ago that conservatively, that same-store revenue might not turn positive until the back half of 2026. But mean if you're already at 2% to 3% move in rate growth, is there some reason to believe that, that stays there that you wouldn't just go to like 2% to 3% same-store revenue growth? Is there some kind of offset on the CRI? I'm just trying to understand why if you're already, I call it, positive move-in rent today that it's going to take for the back half of 2026 to be positive on same-store revenue.

    我想你剛才說過,保守估計,同店收入可能要到 2026 年下半年才能轉正。但我的意思是,如果你的成長率已經達到 2% 到 3%,有什麼理由相信這個成長率會保持不變,而不是繼續保持 2% 到 3% 的同店收入成長率呢?CRI值是否存在某種偏移?我只是想弄清楚,既然你們現在已經實現了(我稱之為)正的入住租金收入,為什麼到 2026 年下半年才能實現同店收入盈利。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. I mean it's not sarcastically, it's math. So we are in a business where 4% to 5% of our existing customers churn on a monthly basis. And so barring again, some sort of change to the good on the demand side, again, which we don't foresee a catalyst for that. It just takes time.

    是的。我不是諷刺,這是數學。因此,在我們所處的產業中,現有客戶每月流失率高達 4% 至 5%。因此,除非需求方面出現某種變化,但我們預計不會出現這種變化的催化劑。這需要時間。

  • So you will just gradually see that slightly negative same-store revenue growth begin to move in a positive direction. And exactly when that crossover occurs, we're not providing guidance at this point, and we don't do quarterly guidance from a same-store perspective. But again, I think to be fair, at this point in October 31, what I shared is kind of the conservative outlook at the home.

    因此,你會逐漸看到略微為負的同店營收成長開始朝著正面的方向發展。至於何時會出現這種交叉點,我們目前不提供指導,而且我們也不從同店的角度提供季度指導。但公平地說,我認為在 10 月 31 日這個時間點,我所分享的算是家裡比較保守的觀點。

  • Eric Wolfe - Analyst

    Eric Wolfe - Analyst

  • Got it. And then I guess to the move in rents that you provide in the [SAP], I mean, does that include promotions I'm probably asking because I'm just thinking through like if we continue to see just positive move in rent growth like onto say, 2% to 3% or 2% to 4%, does that eventually translate into kind of 2% to 4% same-store revenue growth? I know occupancy obviously plays a factor to your point.

    知道了。然後,我想問的是,您在[SAP]中提供的租金變動是否包括促銷活動?我這麼問是因為我在思考,如果我們繼續看到租金成長呈現正向趨勢,例如成長2%到3%或2%到4%,這最終是否會轉化為2%到4%的同店營收成長?我知道入住率顯然會影響你的觀點。

  • But I guess I'm just wondering about the -- if you can really just kind of take these move in rent growth and then assume you're going to get a similar ECRI component to it and take that as a leading indicator of where same-store revenue growth is going? Or we're mistakenly not including promotions or not including something else into that calculation?

    但我猜我只是在想——你是否真的可以簡單地將這些租金增長納入考量,然後假設你會得到類似的 ECRI 成分,並將其作為同店收入增長方向的領先指標?或者我們錯誤地遺漏了促銷活動或其他因素?

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • I'll jump in. If you think about your premise there of 2% to 3%, 2% to 4% type year-over-year improvement in pricing, then -- and you held everything else constant, that ultimately, after, call it, 12 months, when you've churned 5% of your portfolio each month at that type of churn, then eventually, that's where you would get to and then it would probably be helped a little bit then by some of those other factors. You probably get a little bit more out of your ECRIs.

    我來插一句。如果你考慮一下你提出的每年價格上漲 2% 到 3%、2% 到 4% 的前提,那麼——並且你保持其他所有因素不變,最終,比如說 12 個月後,當你每月以這種換手率交易 5% 的投資組合時,最終你會達到那個水平,然後其他一些因素可能會對此有所幫助。你的 ECRI 可能會為你帶來更多好處。

  • You probably get a little bit of occupancy if you're in that environment when -- if you have that type of pricing power, normal pricing power over a prolonged period of time. So back to Chris' point earlier here, is it just takes time to flow through because it's 4% to 5% a month, and that builds and builds and build. So if you had that for a prolonged period of time, I think that's ultimately where you get to from a revenue growth perspective, plus or minus.

    如果你在那種環境下擁有那種定價權,或者說在較長時間內擁有正常的定價權,那麼你的入住率可能會有所提高。所以回到克里斯之前提到的觀點,這需要時間才能慢慢實現,因為一個月只有 4% 到 5%,而且這個數字會不斷累積。所以,如果這種情況持續很長時間,我認為從收入成長的角度來看,最終的結果就是這樣,有增有減。

  • Eric Wolfe - Analyst

    Eric Wolfe - Analyst

  • And then does the movement rents include promotions? Or is that like a separate calculation you should make, meaning that -- I think it was up like mid-2s this quarter. Is that flat with promotion?

    那麼,租金是否包含促銷活動呢?或者說,這是需要單獨計算的,意思是——我認為本季上漲了大約 2.5%。晉升後待遇會更好嗎?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. So that 2.5% is gross. And it is for us, is the same as the net because of our promotions have not changed the amount or the magnitude.

    是的。所以,這2.5%是毛利率。對我們來說,這與淨利潤相同,因為我們的促銷活動並沒有改變利潤的金額或規模。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Griffin, Evercore ISI.

    Michael Griffin,Evercore ISI。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • Chris, maybe you can expand a bit on whether or not you've seen any changes in new customer behavior? I mean it seems like if you're able to raise these new customer rents, maybe there's less price sensitivity or customers shopping around. And I know it's always a topical point with storage, but any incremental home buyer customers coming back? Or is it still -- they haven't really materialized yet?

    克里斯,你能否詳細說說你​​是否觀察到新客戶行為發生了任何變化?我的意思是,如果你能夠提高這些新客戶的租金,也許他們對價格的敏感度會降低,或者他們會貨比三家。我知道儲存問題一直備受關注,但是否有新增的購屋客戶回歸?或者說,它們尚未真正成形?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. I think what you're finding is you're just able to get rate in these markets that are that are not typically the home buyer and seller movement market. So your leading year-over-year improvement in rate to new customers, Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, Chicago, Washington, D.C. And then the laggards where you're just still trying to find your footing in terms of where is that balance and at what rate can you get that customer to convert continue to be Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, some in Texas, some of the major Texas markets are moving in that direction as well. So it really is just market from our perspective, which then sort of ties in to your question, which is its customer use case.

    是的。我認為你發現的是,你能夠在這些通常不是房屋買賣活躍市場的地區獲得優惠利率。因此,在吸引新客戶的轉換率方面,曼哈頓、皇后區、布魯克林、芝加哥和華盛頓特區的轉換率年增幅最大。而亞特蘭大、鳳凰城、夏洛特以及德州的部分地區,仍在努力尋找平衡點,以達到最佳的客戶轉換率,德州的一些主要市場也朝著這個方向發展。所以從我們的角度來看,這其實只是市場問題,這又與你的問題——也就是它的客戶使用案例——息息相關。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • Appreciate the context.

    請理解上下文。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes, I'm sorry, one last piece. And then ultimately, it's still -- when we talk about supply and those headwinds are diminishing across the portfolio, but that also varies pretty significantly by market. So not surprising, those Sunbelt markets that tended to rely historically on a little bit more of that home buyer and seller are also the markets that continue to get deliveries while deliveries overall are down, they are still occurring all too frequently in Atlanta and Phoenix in the West Coast of Florida.

    是的,抱歉,最後一塊。最後,當我們談到供應時,雖然整個投資組合中的不利因素正在減少,但這也會因市場而異。因此,毫不奇怪,那些歷史上更依賴房屋買賣雙方的陽光地帶市場,雖然整體交付量有所下降,但仍然持續有房屋交付,在佛羅裡達州西海岸的亞特蘭大和鳳凰城,這種情況仍然非常頻繁。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • So it's kind of a double whammy for those Sunbelt markets, so to say.

    所以,對於陽光地帶的市場來說,這可以說是雙重打擊。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Michael Griffin - Analyst

    Michael Griffin - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe next just on sort of the ECRIs and outlook there. I mean I realize that the rent roll downs, the move in to move out is still pretty wide. But has your strategy changed there at all? Have customers become more sensitive to rate increases? Or are they typically still willing to accept them and you're able to push strategically where you can?

    偉大的。接下來或許可以談談 ECRI 及其前景。我的意思是,我意識到租金遞減,搬入和搬出的時間跨度仍然很大。但你們在那裡的策略有改變嗎?客戶是否對價格上漲更敏感了?或者他們通常仍然願意接受,而你可以盡可能地進行策略性推動?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. The customer health, which we continue to really focus in on, and again, varies by economic strata and parts of the country generally across the portfolio continues to be very good. And we have not seen any change in customer behavior as it relates to ECRIs, and our overall approach has been consistent throughout 2025.

    是的。我們一直非常關注客戶健康狀況,而且客戶健康狀況會因經濟階層和國家/地區而異,總體而言,我們投資組合中的客戶健康狀況仍然非常好。我們沒有看到客戶行為在 ECRI 方面發生任何變化,我們在 2025 年的整體方法也始終如一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Vaidya, Mizuho.

    Ravi Vaidya,瑞穗銀行。

  • Ravi Vaidya - Equity Analyst

    Ravi Vaidya - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask for the third-party management business. I saw a couple of stores came off on a net basis. Is there something that -- looking ahead, should we expect it to increase again? Or maybe where some of the new private operator that you're partnering with? And how can that be used as a hedge for higher supply?

    我想諮詢第三方管理業務。我看到有幾家商店的淨銷售額下降了。展望未來,我們是否應該預期它會再次成長?或者,你們正在合作的一些新的私人業者在哪裡?那麼,如何利用這一點來對沖供應增加的風險呢?

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes, I appreciate the question. So on our third-party management program, we talk about the stores that we add to the platform because that's ultimately what we control. That's our new business that the development team is looking for opportunities to add owners, to add stores to the platform. This year, we have exceeded adding 130 stores for the eighth consecutive -- at least 130 stores a year for the eighth consecutive year. So that part of the business remains healthy.

    是的,感謝您的提問。所以,在我們的第三方管理計劃中,我們會討論添加到平台上的店鋪,因為這最終是我們能夠控制的。這是我們的新業務,開發團隊正在尋找機會,為平台增加業主和商店。今年,我們連續第八年新增門市超過 130 家——連續第八年每年至少新增 130 家門市。所以這部分業務仍保持健康發展。

  • The part that is very difficult to predict is when stores are going to leave the platform. And part of this year, when you have that churn, part of this year's churn was self-inflicted earlier in the year when we bought 28 stores that were in that third-party managed bucket. You just have a lot of stores that are -- leave the platform most often, that is because they have transacted. They have sold to somebody that either self manages or has a different relationship. And so trying to predict the net growth in the store count of 3 p.m.

    最難預測的是商家何時會離開平台。今年部分業務變動是由於我們年初收購了 28 家第三方管理的門市而造成的。很多店鋪都會離開平台,通常是因為他們已經完成了交易。他們把房子賣給了自己管理或有其他關係的人。因此,我們試圖預測下午 3 點門市數量的淨成長。

  • platform is an impossible task. So we control what we can control. And we look -- when stores leave the platform, we've talked about in the past, we feel like it's job well done. We've helped that owner create the value. We've stabilized and improved performance. And in most cases, we set them up to achieve their desired results as they transact and sell the asset to someone else.

    建構平台是一項不可能的任務。所以,我們只能控制我們能控制的事情。我們觀察——當商店離開平台時,正如我們過去討論過的那樣,我們覺得這是一項出色的工作。我們幫助那位業主創造了價值。我們已經穩定並提高了性能。在大多數情況下,我們會幫助他們實現預期目標,因為他們會將資產交易並出售給其他人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spenser Glimcher, Green Street.

    史賓塞‧格林徹,格林街。

  • Spenser Glimcher - Analyst

    Spenser Glimcher - Analyst

  • Maybe just going back to the acquisition front. Are there certain markets or geographies that you guys are more comfortable underwriting? Just due to greater stabilization of fundamentals? And then on the flip side, are there any markets that are sort of red line right now just because there's still too much operational uncertainty maybe outside of the obvious supply ebb markets?

    或許應該回到收購方面。貴公司是否更傾向於承保某些特定市場或地區?只是因為基本面比較穩定嗎?另一方面,除了明顯的供應短缺市場之外,是否存在一些市場因為營運方面仍然存在太多的不確定性而被視為紅線?

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yes. I mean just the nuance responses we're comfortable with underwriting it everywhere. I think embedded in our underwriting are obviously going to be different risk hurdles based on some of those characteristics that you would refer to. Perhaps the best deal that we can find right now would be in a market that's more challenged because others don't see maybe what we see. And so we don't have a bias necessarily to blacklist a particular market because of supply as an example or some other criteria.

    是的。我的意思是,我們樂於接受的細微回應,無論在何處都能為其提供擔保。我認為,根據您提到的某些特徵,我們的承保過程中顯然會設定不同的風險門檻。或許我們現在能找到的最佳交易,是在競爭更加激烈的市場中,因為其他人可能沒有看到我們所看到的。因此,我們不一定會因為供應或其他一些標準而將某個特定市場列入黑名單。

  • But what we would do in that standpoint is to make sure that from a risk-adjusted standpoint, we're getting paid to take on that uncertainty. So those markets create more challenge from an underwriting standpoint to try to look at where rates are today, perhaps and where rates might be in a year or 2.

    但從這個角度來看,我們要做的就是確保從風險調整的角度來看,我們能夠獲得報酬來承擔這種不確定性。因此,從承保角度來看,這些市場帶來了更大的挑戰,需要檢視目前的利率水平,以及未來一兩年內的利率水平。

  • It is a challenging but not impossible underwrite when you have a store in particular because it's such a micromarket business, when you have a store that's competing against new supply to be able to have confidence in your ability to project where rates in that small market are going to stabilize once that new supply leases up is a challenge.

    對於擁有門市的租戶來說,核保是一項具有挑戰性但並非不可能的任務,因為門市的業務規模非常小,需要與新供應的租戶競爭。因此,要對預測新供應租賃完成後,該小市場的租金水平將如何穩定下來充滿信心,是一項挑戰。

  • It's the fun part of the investments team and what they do because those deals that have a little bit of hair on them are the most challenging, but also very interesting and perhaps the place that you can make a really nice risk-adjusted return. So we haven't -- we're not avoiding markets, but certainly considering all of those risk factors.

    這就是投資團隊工作中樂趣所在,因為那些有點棘手的交易最具挑戰性,但也非常有趣,或許還能獲得非常可觀的風險調整後收益。所以我們沒有——我們並沒有迴避市場,但當然會考慮所有這些風險因素。

  • Spenser Glimcher - Analyst

    Spenser Glimcher - Analyst

  • Okay. Yes. That was very helpful. And then can you just share what stabilized cap rates you guys are underwriting on the 3 assets you're firing in 4Q?

    好的。是的。那很有幫助。那麼,你們能否透露一下,對於你們在第四季推出的3項資產,你們的穩定資本化率是多少?

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Those 3 assets are a little bit of a mixed bag between stable and not stable. Going in, when you look across the 3, we're going in, in the low 5s and stabilizing across the board fairly early on in year 2 or 3 at right around 6% across the board for those 3 opportunities.

    這三項資產的穩定性參差不齊,既有穩定的也有不穩定的。從目前的情況來看,當我們縱觀這三個機會時,我們進入時收益率都在 5% 左右,並且在第二年或第三年初期就全面穩定在 6% 左右。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brendan Lynch, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的布倫丹·林奇。

  • Brendan Lynch - Analyst

    Brendan Lynch - Analyst

  • New York City continues to perform quite well. And it continues to outperform other large markets in the Northeast. Maybe you can just kind of compare and contrast what is leading to that outperformance? Obviously, there's a lot of supply issues in the Sunbelt, maybe it's the same in the Northeast. But just kind of any color that you can provide on New York relative to some of these other markets in the region?

    紐約市的表現依然相當出色。而且,它的表現持續優於東北部其他大型市場。或許你可以比較分析一下導致這種優異表現的因素?顯然,陽光地帶存在著許多供應問題,東北部的情況可能也是如此。但您能否就紐約相對於該地區其他一些市場的情況,提供一些具體的分析呢?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. So it's going to be partly what you just said. So again, the boroughs really nonexistent new supply impact. So you're really stable from that perspective. You have a more need-based customer.

    是的。所以,一部分原因正如你剛才所說。所以再次強調,各區新增供應幾乎沒有影響。所以從這個角度來看,你的財務狀況非常穩定。你的客戶更注重實際需求。

  • And then obviously, we have a very significant position there and one in which the asset quality is extremely high. So we just have everything in our favor in a market that in this part of the cycle is just doing very well. Other Northeast, Philadelphia, Boston, a little bit of a mixture there.

    顯然,我們在那裡擁有非常重要的地位,而且資產品質極高。所以,在當前週期行情非常好的市場中,我們擁有一切對我們有利的優勢。東北部其他地區,如費城、波士頓,情況有點複雜。

  • You've got supply as opposed to the boroughs and you have a little bit more of a mix in the customer base. It's not quite Sunbelt like, but you do have a little bit more of that mover, so to speak, than you might have in, say, the Bronx. So I think it's kind of a combination of those 2 things. And you see that similarly in urban Chicago, you see it in a few of the other urban markets.

    與行政區相比,你們有統一的供應管道,你們的客戶群也更加多元化。雖然這裡不像陽光地帶那樣充滿活力,但可以說,與布朗克斯區相比,這裡的活力要強一些。所以我認為這算是這兩件事的結合吧。在芝加哥市區以及其他一些城市市場,你也能看到類似的現象。

  • Brendan Lynch - Analyst

    Brendan Lynch - Analyst

  • Great. And then maybe just sticking with New York City, you've got the new development coming there. It's a relatively small investment, I think it's $19 million. Maybe just talk about what would allow you to get more sort of aggressive on development in the New York City area.

    偉大的。然後,或許就只關注紐約市吧,那裡正在經歷新的發展。這是一筆相對較小的投資,我想大概是 1900 萬美元。或許可以談談怎樣才能讓你們在紐約市地區更積極地進行開發。

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • It's really looking for opportunities that have -- that are located in a spot that would be complementary to our existing portfolio and frankly, would have a need from a demand standpoint for there to be new product. Obviously, it's not as easy to pencil out deals in the boroughs as it used to be because the tax incentives aren't there any longer. So surely, there are opportunities somewhere. But the fruit is pretty high up in the tree and for us to find an opportunity, it's going to be something that we're pretty excited about.

    它真正尋找的是那些位於能夠與我們現有產品組合互補的地點,並且坦白說,從需求角度來看,需要推出新產品的機會。顯然,現在在各區達成交易不像以前那麼容易了,因為稅收優惠政策已經不存在了。所以,機會肯定還在某個地方。但果實還在樹上很高的地方,對我們來說,能夠找到機會採摘,是一件讓我們非常興奮的事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Luebchow, Wells Fargo.

    艾瑞克‧盧布喬,富國銀行。

  • Eric Luebchow - Analyst

    Eric Luebchow - Analyst

  • Can you comment a little bit on any trends you're seeing on your average length of stay? It seems like vacates have been kind of muted across the industry this year, obviously helps from a roll down perspective. But perhaps takes a little bit longer for some of these better movement rates to flow through the portfolio. So any commentary on that would be helpful.

    您能否就平均停留時間方面觀察到的任何趨勢做一些評論?今年整個產業的空置率似乎都比較低,這顯然有利於職位的逐步減少。但或許需要更長的時間,這些較好的殖利率才能反映到投資組合中。所以,任何評論都會很有幫助。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Sure. When you think about those trends, I would macro say they're consistent, still elevated. So our customers who have been with us greater than a year, that's up 50 basis points year-over-year. And again, if you kind of compare it to pre-COVID, so third quarter of 2019, it's plus 260 basis points.

    當然。從宏觀角度來看,這些趨勢是一致的,仍然處於較高水平。因此,與我們合作超過一年的客戶,年成長了 50 個基點。再說一遍,如果與新冠疫情爆發前,也就是 2019 年第三季相比,則成長了 260 個基點。

  • And then those customers who have been with us greater than 2 years, which is about 40% of our customers, that's actually down year-over-year about 140 basis points, but again, up 50 basis points what we saw in 3Q '19. So continue to be pretty consistent, have come down a bit off of peak, but still elevated relative to historical metrics.

    然後,那些與我們合作超過 2 年的客戶(約占我們客戶的 40%),實際上同比下降了約 140 個基點,但比 2019 年第三季度增長了 50 個基點。所以,目前還算穩定,雖然比峰值有所回落,但相對於歷史指標而言仍然較高。

  • Eric Luebchow - Analyst

    Eric Luebchow - Analyst

  • Appreciate that. And I know you provided a little bit of directional commentary on '26, but just trying to take maybe more of the bull case. So obviously, if we get a housing catalyst if we see a pickup in customer mobility, moving rates, continue to find stability start growing.

    謝謝。我知道你對 26 年的情況做了一些方向性評論,但我只是想多談談看漲的理由。所以很明顯,如果我們看到房屋市場出現催化劑,如果我們看到客戶流動性增強,搬家率上升,繼續尋找穩定因素,市場就會開始成長。

  • Do you think it's reasonable we could get back to more historical levels of growth by maybe the second half of next year, certainly into 2027 and then potentially even higher beyond that, especially given some of the supply delivery commentary. Just wanted to get your temperature on what you see over the next few years and not just into '26?

    你認為我們是否有可能在明年下半年恢復到更接近歷史水平的增長,甚至在 2027 年恢復到歷史水平,並且在那之後可能還會更高,特別是考慮到一些關於供應交付的評論。我只是想了解您對未來幾年的看法,而不僅僅是到2026年的情況?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. I do see that bull case as playing out the way you described, again, it's is sort of finding that catalyst for demand. And if that hurts, housing being the easiest thing to point at, we continue to have a healthy consumer. I think you then start to see consistent performance from those solid markets that we've experienced here over the last couple of quarters those steady eddies continue and then your overall helped by the fact that the Charlotte and Nashville, et cetera of the world should rebound quite nicely. And I think we're well positioned from -- obviously, to get the rate.

    是的。我確實認為牛市會像你描述的那樣發展,再次強調,關鍵在於找到需求的催化劑。如果這造成了傷害(住房是最容易指出的問題),那麼我們仍然擁有一個健康的消費者群體。我認為,接下來你會看到過去幾季以來我們所經歷的那些穩健市場持續表現良好,這些穩定的勢頭會繼續下去,而夏洛特和納許維爾等城市應該會很好地反彈,這對整體經濟也有幫助。我認為我們已經佔據了有利位置——顯然,可以獲得理想的利率。

  • We've shown that we can do that through this cycle increasingly more so over the last couple of months. And then on the -- on the occupancy side, then you get the pickup there as well. And to your point, you could see -- and I would expect if those conditions were to occur, you would see more elevated performance.

    我們已經證明,我們能夠透過這個週期做到這一點,尤其是在過去的幾個月。然後,在乘員方面,你也可以在那裡取貨。正如你所說,你可以看到——而且我預計,如果這些條件出現,你會看到更高的表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Mueller, JPMorgan.

    邁克爾·穆勒,摩根大通。

  • Michael Mueller - Analyst

    Michael Mueller - Analyst

  • Just go back to development supply. I mean, what's your gut feeling tell you about how quickly supply may come back in some of the markets as they improve over the next couple of years? I mean do you see a lot of competitive projects near you where people are just kind of waiting for the right time to kick off? Or do you think you're going to have a little bit longer of a runway without meaningful supply?

    回到開發供應環節就行了。我的意思是,你憑直覺覺得,隨著未來幾年某些市場的好轉,它們的供應恢復速度會有多快?我的意思是,你附近是否有很多競爭激烈的項目,大家都在等待合適的時機啟動?還是你認為在沒有實質供應的情況下,你們還能撐一段時間?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. I think that crystal ball is complicated and maybe a little fuzzy. So I think it will be slower. I think that you have a couple of factors. Again, we still have elevated cost.

    是的。我覺得水晶球預測很複雜,而且可能有點模糊。所以我認為速度會比較慢。我認為你考慮了以下幾個因素。同樣,我們仍然面臨高成本問題。

  • I think it will, to our point, being a more gradual recovery in move-in rates. So you'll still have to see some progress there. And I think the developers, again, who have opened in '22 and are sort of trying to figure out how to hang on at this point may not be likely to want to get back into it again until they deal with exiting the store that they have. And then ultimately, primary lenders to the space for the developers, those local and regional banks have to be -- they continue to be constructive in terms of how they think about underwriting and how they think about providing that leverage. I think that should constrain things as well.

    我認為,正如我們所說,入住率的復甦將會是一個較為漸進的過程。所以你還得看到這方面有一些進展。而且我認為,那些在 2022 年開業,現在正努力想辦法維持下去的開發商,可能在解決好現有店舖的退出問題之前,不太可能想再次涉足這個行業。最終,為開發商提供主要貸款的那些地方和區域銀行必須繼續在承銷和提供槓桿方面保持建設性的態度。我認為這應該也能起到一定的約束作用。

  • So again, at least you look out through next year, probably at least the first half of '27. I think we'll continue to see some restraint. Again, there are the markets I've called out that appear to have no guardrails, but I think we'll continue to see some constraint. And then if you just think practically, if it picks back up again, it takes 6 months to sort of get everything going and then another 12 months to build, so you're 18 months out from whenever that happens.

    所以,至少你可以把目光投向明年,可能至少到 2027 年上半年。我認為我們還會繼續看到一些克制措施。再次強調,我提到的某些市場似乎沒有任何監管措施,但我認為我們將繼續看到一些約束措施。然後,如果你從實際角度考慮,即使它再次復蘇,也需要 6 個月的時間才能讓一切運轉起來,然後再需要 12 個月的時間進行建設,所以從那時到那時,你還需要 18 個月的時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Move-in rate was up 2.5% during the quarter are apparently both on a gross and a net basis, but came down in October. So how did the move-in trend during the quarter? Did it peak in October? Or did it peak kind of earlier during the period? And is that how it normally plays out?

    本季度入住率上升了 2.5%,無論是按總額還是淨額計算,但 10 月有所下降。那麼本季入住率趨勢如何?10月份達到高峰了嗎?或者說,它的峰值出現得更早一些?事情通常都是這樣發展的嗎?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes, moving trend was historically normal. You see kind of that peak in July and then trends tend to sequentially start to slowdown. But again, I think the message here is that the road is a bit windy. We've got markets that are continuing to move in a fairly straight line and an upward trajectory. And then there are markets, again, pick on the Sunbelt, where the road is a little bit more windy.

    是的,這種移動趨勢在歷史上是正常的。你會看到七月出現一個高峰,然後趨勢往往會逐漸放緩。但我覺得這裡想表達的是,這條路有點曲折。我們看到市場繼續以相當直線的方式向上發展。然後還有一些市場,像是陽光地帶,那裡的道路稍微曲折一些。

  • So overall, I would say, kind of consistent with the last couple of years is what we've seen.

    總的來說,我認為,與過去幾年的情況基本一致。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Got it. And you said on the call maybe a couple of times, but just rather stabilizing trends and encouraging sign. By stabilizing trends, are you referring to same-store revenue growth and by encouraging signs you're suggesting the move-in rate. Is that kind of what you're pointing to?

    知道了。你在電話會議上可能說過幾次,但更多的是趨於穩定的趨勢和令人鼓舞的跡象。您所說的穩定趨勢是指同店營收成長嗎?您所說的令人鼓舞的跡像是指入住率嗎?你指的是這種情況嗎?

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Yes. So again, the top line metric, same-store revenue growth, just kind of beat the drum again, it takes time for that to move given the relatively low churn in the customer base. So when we talk about stabilizing trends, we're talking about move-in rates and demand levels, which again, have been weaker than historical but fairly consistent and occupancy. So it's more of the KPIs that are happening every day, which will then gradually bleed into the same-store revenue result, which will then gradually move that in a positive direction.

    是的。所以,再說一遍,最重要的指標——同店收入成長——需要時間才能見效,因為顧客流失率相對較低。所以,當我們談到穩定趨勢時,我們指的是入住率和需求水平,這些指標雖然比歷史水平弱,但入住率相當穩定。所以,更重要的是每天都在發生的 KPI,這些 KPI 將逐漸影響同店收入,進而逐漸推動同店收入朝著正面的方向發展。

  • Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

    Michael Goldsmith - Analyst

  • Portchester looks great. Good luck in the fourth quarter.

    波特切斯特看起來很棒。祝你第四節比賽好運。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Super excited about it.

    我對此感到非常興奮。

  • Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Timothy Martin - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • We have units available if you'd like to get.

    如果您需要,我們有現貨。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And with no further questions in queue, I'd like to turn the conference back over to Chris Marr for closing remarks.

    謝謝。由於沒有其他問題需要提問,我想把會議交還給克里斯·馬爾,讓他作閉幕致詞。

  • Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

    Christopher Marr - President, Chief Executive Officer, Trustee

  • Okay. Thank you, everybody, for participating. Again, stabilizing trends, encouraged by the direction overall that the portfolio is moving. Assuming these continue, we expect to be on improved footing heading into 2026. We look forward to seeing some of you at upcoming conferences and next time we're on a quarterly call, we'll share our specific expectations for 2026.

    好的。謝謝大家的參與。再次出現企穩趨勢,這得益於投資組合的整體發展方向。假設這些趨勢持續下去,我們預計到 2026 年,我們的處境將會好轉。我們期待在即將到來的會議上見到你們中的一些人,下次我們進行季度電話會議時,我們將分享我們對 2026 年的具體期望。

  • So thank you all. Happy Halloween.

    所以,謝謝大家。萬聖節快樂。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。