CubeSmart (CUBE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Karen, and I will be your conference operator today.

感謝您的支持。我的名字是凱倫 (Karen)，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the CubeSmart fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 CubeSmart 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I will now turn the call over to Josh Schutzer, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

現在我將電話轉交給財務副總裁 Josh Schutzer。請繼續。

Hey, Karen.

嘿，凱倫。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to CubeSmart's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Participants on today's call include Chris Maher, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Martin, Chief Financial Officer. Our prepared remarks will be followed by a Q&A session.

歡迎參加 CubeSmart 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的參與者包括總裁兼執行長 Chris Maher 和財務長 Tim Martin。我們的準備好的發言之後將進行問答環節。

In addition to our earnings release, which was which was issued yesterday evening, supplemental operating and financial data is available under the investor relations section of the company's website at www.cubesmart.com.

除了我們昨天晚上發布的收益報告外，補充營運和財務數據還可在公司網站 www.cubesmart.com 的投資者關係部分查閱。

The company's remarks will include certain forward-looking statements regarding earnings and strategy that involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

該公司的評論將包括某些有關盈利和策略的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險、不確定性和其他因素，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

The risks and factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are provided in documents the company furnishes to or files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Form 8-K we filed this morning, together with our earnings release filed with the Form 8K and the risk factor section of the company's annual report on Form 10K. In addition, the company's remarks include reference to non-gap measures. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-gap measures can be found in the fourth quarter financial supplement posted on the company's website at www.keepsmart.com. I will now turn the call over to.

可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和因素在公司向美國證券交易委員會提供或提交的文件中列出，特別是我們今天早上提交的 8-K 表格，以及我們隨 8K 表格提交的收益報告和公司 10K 表格年度報告中的風險因素部分。此外，該公司的評論中還提到了非差距措施。在公司網站 www.keepsmart.com 上發布的第四季度財務補充報告中可以找到 GAAP 和非差距指標之間的對帳。我現在將電話轉給。

Chris, thank you, Josh.

克里斯，謝謝你，喬希。

Good morning. Welcome to the call. Thanks for participating. We believe that for our portfolio, the fourth quarter of 2024 may have marked an inflection point in the trend of decelerating same store revenue growth that we and the industry have been experiencing since reaching the COVID-induced peak in the second quarter of 2022.

早安.歡迎來電。感謝您的參與。我們認為，對於我們的投資組合而言，2024 年第四季度可能標誌著我們和行業自 2022 年第二季度達到由 COVID 引發的峰值以來一直經歷的同店收入增長減速趨勢的轉折點。

From their trough in November of last year, our year over year growth in same store revenues has begun to slowly improve.

從去年11月份的低谷開始，我們的同店營收年增率已經開始緩慢提高。

Specific trends of note include The year over year same store occupancy GAAP narrowing from 100 basis points negative at year end 24 basis points to 50 basis points as of the end of February.

值得注意的具體趨勢包括：年比 GAAP 同店入住率從年底的 100 個基點（負 24 個基點）收窄至 2 月底的 50 個基點。

Rents being achieved for new customer rentals have improved their year over year negative GAAP from the average in the fourth quarter of 10.3% to last week averaging 7.4%. We are generally positive about the economic health of our existing customers. All key metrics, write-offs, etc.

新客戶租金的年比 GAAP 負成長已從第四季的平均 10.3% 降至上週的平均 7.4%。我們總體上對現有客戶的經濟健康狀況持樂觀態度。所有關鍵指標、註銷等。

Continue to perform along historically normal levels.

繼續沿著歷史正常水平表現。

We are watching these metrics closely, recognizing core inflation remains stubbornly high.

我們正在密切關注這些指標，並認識到核心通膨率仍然居高不下。

Our base case expectations for revenue growth in 2025 assume across all of our major markets. That we continue the gradual pattern of improvements from our fourth quarter metrics.

我們對 2025 年所有主要市場的收入成長的基本預期是這樣的。我們將繼續保持第四季度指標逐步改善的模式。

Our lower beta urban markets continue to outperform the Sun Belt. Our expectation is our New York City performance continues to be a bright spot, remaining at the top of our highest growing markets.

我們的低貝塔城市市場表現持續優於陽光地帶。我們的預期是，紐約市的表現將繼續成為亮點，繼續位居我們成長最快的市場之首。

That being said, today, we do not see a near-term obvious catalyst that would sharply re-accelerate organic growth in 2025.

話雖如此，今天我們並沒有看到近期明顯的催化劑在 2025 年大幅加速有機成長。

The last two years, we and the industry have included a mix of optimism and hope around housing market improvements and other trends that would provide significant stimulus to the busy season demand for our product.

過去兩年，我們和業界都對房地產市場的改善和其他趨勢抱持樂觀和希望，這些趨勢將極大地刺激我們產品的旺季需求。

In hindsight, these bull case forecasts have proven to be overly optimistic.

回想起來，這些牛市預測被證明是過於樂觀了。

While we're encouraged by our metrics through February and believe that overall trends are stabilizing, we are being, in our opinion.

雖然我們對 2 月的指標感到鼓舞，並相信整體趨勢正在趨於穩定，但我們認為，我們還處於...

Prudently cautious in our initial 2025 outlook.

我們對 2025 年的初步展望持審慎態度。

We remain very optimistic about the long term health of our business.

我們對我們的業務的長期健康發展仍然非常樂觀。

For almost 2 decades, the hallmark of our team is our culture about hustling to find creative methods to grow externally.

近 20 年來，我們團隊的標誌就是努力尋找創意方法來實現外部發展的文化。

With our viewpoint that operating fundamentals are stabilizing, in February, we were pleased to successfully close out one of our joint venture investments by acquiring our partner's interest and in the creative transaction.

我們認為經營基本面正在穩定，因此，二月份，我們很高興透過收購合作夥伴的權益和創意交易，成功完成了一項合資投資。

In planning for the opportunity in late 24, we opportunistically raised equity capital at attractive valuations on our ATM program.

在規劃 24 年末的機會時，我們抓住機會，以 ATM 計劃中具有吸引力的估值籌集了股本。

With the net debt to even it out 4 times, we took advantage of a portion of that leverage capacity to fund the balance of the purchase.

透過淨債務達到 4 倍的平衡，我們利用部分槓桿能力來支付購買餘額。

The Portfolio was deliberately constructed between 2017 and 2021 to include assets that had been recently constructed in tier one markets. Our plan from inception was to bring these properties onto our balance sheet, and our investment team skillfully executed on that strategic objective.

該投資組合是在 2017 年至 2021 年期間特意建構的，其中包括近期在一線市場上建立的資產。我們從一開始的計劃就是將這些資產納入我們的資產負債表，我們的投資團隊巧妙地執行了這個策略目標。

Most business executives would describe the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment as uncertain.

大多數企業主管認為當前的宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境不確定。

Beginning over 30 years ago and continuing to this day, members of our leadership team have successfully navigated through cycles and times of great uncertainty.

從 30 多年前開始直到今天，我們的領導團隊成員已經成功度過了充滿不確定性的週期和時期。

Over that period, self storage has demonstrated its resilience. We are confident in the future and remain focused on providing an outstanding experience to our valued customers and maximizing the opportunities presented.

在此期間，自助倉儲已展現出其彈性。我們對未來充滿信心，並將繼續致力於為我們尊貴的客戶提供卓越的體驗並最大限度地利用現有的機會。

I'd like to turn the call over to Tim Martin, who will walk you through our investment activity, our fourth quarter results, and our outlook for 25 in a bit more detail.

我想將電話轉給蒂姆·馬丁 (Tim Martin)，他將向您更詳細地介紹我們的投資活動、第四季度業績以及 25 年的展望。

Tim. Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking a few minutes out of your day to spend it with us. As Chris mentioned, I'll quickly review fourth quarter results, talk about some investment activity and and provide some additional color on our 2025 expectations and guidance.

提姆。謝謝，克里斯。大家早安。感謝您抽出幾分鐘與我們共度時光。正如克里斯所提到的，我將快速回顧第四季度的業績，談論一些投資活動，並對我們對 2025 年的期望和指導提供一些額外的說明。

Same store NOI declined 3.7% in the fourth quarter. Same store revenue growth was 1.6% for the quarter, driven by continued pressure on asking rates, along with occupancy levels dropping 120 basis points on average compared to last year.

第四季同店淨營業利潤下降3.7%。本季同店營收成長 1.6%，主要原因是要價持續承壓，入住率較去年平均下降 120 個基點。

Same store expenses grew 4.7% during the quarter, driven largely by the real estate tax line item, which grew 17.5% over last year's fourth quarter.

本季同店支出成長 4.7%，主要原因是房地產稅項目較去年第四季成長了 17.5%。

As we've discussed throughout the year by year increase in the quarter was expected as we received some significant refunds and tax reductions in the fourth quarter of last year. So there's nothing new or recurring that impacted this year's tax number, just a tough comp from last year's good news. For the year, real estate taxes grew 5.7%, which was actually a little bit better than we had projected entering the year.

正如我們一直討論的那樣，由於去年第四季度我們收到了大量退款和減稅，因此本季的逐年增長是預料之中的。因此，沒有什麼新的或重複的事件影響今年的稅收數字，只是與去年的好消息相比有了一些艱難的對比。今年房地產稅增加了 5.7%，實際上比我們年初預測的要好一些。

We reported FFO per shares adjusted of $0.68 for the quarter. We announced a 2% increase in our quarterly dividend, up to an annualized $2.08 per share. On yesterday's close, that represents a 4.9% dividend yield. On the external growth front, in the fourth quarter, we closed on the previously announced store acquisitions in Oregon and Pennsylvania for a combined investment of $22 million.

我們報告本季調整後的每股 FFO 為 0.68 美元。我們宣布季度股利增加 2%，達到每股年化 2.08 美元。以昨日收盤計算，股息殖利率為 4.9%。在外部成長方面，第四季度，我們完成了先前宣布的在俄勒岡州和賓州的門市收購，總投資額為 2,200 萬美元。

We also closed on our acquisition of an 85% interest in the 14 store portfolio in the Dallas MSA.

我們也完成了對達拉斯 MSA 14 家門市組合 85% 權益的收購。

We had an existing third party relationship with the owners, and this transaction was a really good example of our investments team getting creative to find a solution for a group of investors, some of whom were looking for liquidity and some who wanted to maintain their position and capture the remaining value creation opportunities that the portfolio presents over time. We're very excited about this creative transaction as the assets are incredibly complimentary to our existing Dallas portfolio footprint.

我們與所有者之間存在第三方關係，此次交易是一個很好的例子，表明我們的投資團隊創造性地為投資者群體找到了解決方案，其中一些投資者正在尋找流動性，而另一些人則希望保持自己的地位並抓住投資組合隨著時間的推移而呈現的剩餘價值創造機會。我們對這項富有創意的交易感到非常興奮，因為這些資產與我們現有的達拉斯投資組合非常互補。

We also announced that subsequent to year end, as Chris touched on, that we acquired the remaining 80% interest in one of our unconsolidated joint ventures known as HPP4.

我們也宣布，正如克里斯所提到的，我們在年底之後收購了我們的一家非合併合資企業 HPP4 的剩餘 80% 的權益。

As Chris mentioned, the venture was formed in 2017 with the objective of acquiring non-stabilized early stage lease up stores. From 2017 to 2021, the venture acquired 28 stores, predominantly in top 30 MSAs. The structure of the venture allowed us to participate in a broad portfolio of lease up opportunities by being a minority equity investor while minimizing earnings dilution during lease up through fee income and ultimately being able to earn an outsized return on our investment through the promote structure.

正如克里斯所說，該合資公司成立於 2017 年，目的是收購不穩定的早期租賃商店。從 2017 年到 2021 年，該合資企業收購了 28 家門市，主要位於前 30 個 MSA。該合資企業的結構使我們能夠作為少數股權投資者參與廣泛的租賃機會，同時透過費用收入最大限度地減少租賃期間的收益稀釋，並最終透過推廣結構獲得超額的投資回報。

Our ultimate goal has always been to own these assets 100% on balance sheet, which our recent acquisition of our partners' interests allows us to do. Some additional details around the numbers and consideration for the transaction, there was $222.2 million of venture level debt at closing that was repaid.

我們的最終目標一直是在資產負債表上 100% 擁有這些資產，而我們最近對合作夥伴的權益的收購使我們能夠做到這一點。關於交易的數字和對價的一些其他細節，交易結束時有 2.222 億美元的創投債務已經償還。

Our 20% share of that debt was $44.5 million. After debt repayment, we paid $408.3 million for our partner's 80% interest in the venture.

我們佔該債務的20%，即4,450萬美元。償還債務後，我們支付了 4.083 億美元收購了合作夥伴在該合資企業中的 80% 的權益。

So the $44.5 million of debt repayment plus the $408.3 million for the remaining 80% interest totals $452.8 million which is the total consideration we paid at closing to bring this portfolio on balance sheet, free and clear of any property level debt.

因此，4,450 萬美元的債務償還額加上剩餘 80% 利息的 4.083 億美元，總計 4.528 億美元，這是我們在交易結束時支付的總對價，以使該投資組合納入資產負債表，並且沒有任何房地產層面的債務。

We're excited to bring another strategic joint venture to a successful close. This one was seven years in the making, creating meaningful value for both parties. Ultimately for us, we have an a creative transaction, an attractive basis, and a geographically diverse recent vintage portfolio with perfect underwriting and still yet a little bit of outsized growth as some of the assets fully stabilized.

我們很高興又一次成功完成一項策略合資專案。這次合作歷時七年，為雙方創造了有意義的價值。最終對我們來說，我們擁有一項富有創意的交易、一個有吸引力的基礎和一個地理上多樣化的近期投資組合，擁有完美的承保，而且由於部分資產完全穩定，仍有一點點超額增長。

In anticipation of these external growth opportunities, we raised $85.6 million in net proceeds during the quarter and $118.3 million year-to-date using our at the market equity programs. Our average sales price for those sales for the year was $51.25 per share.

為了抓住這些外部成長機會，我們在本季透過市場股權計畫籌集了 8,560 萬美元的淨收益，今年迄今籌集了 1.183 億美元。我們今年這些銷售的平均售價為每股 51.25 美元。

Transitioning then and looking forward to details of our 2025 earnings guidance and the related assumptions. Those were included in our release last evening. Our 2025 same-store property pool increased by e8 stores.

然後進行過渡並期待我們 2025 年盈利預測和相關假設的詳細資訊。這些都包含在我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中。我們 2025 年的同店物業池增加了 e8 家商店。

Embedded in our same store expectations for 25 is the impact of new supply that will compete with approximately 24% of our same store portfolio. For contexts, that 24% is down from 27% of stores impacted by supply last year, and down from peak levels that were at 50% of our stores were impacted back in 2019.

我們對 25 家同店的預期中包括新供應的影響，這些新供應將與我們約 24% 的同店產品組合競爭。具體來說，這一 24% 低於去年受供應影響的門市 27%，也低於 2019 年 50% 門市受到影響的峰值水準。

Our guidance range for same store revenue assumes that the fundamental operating environment in 2025 is similar to the last two years with no material changes, including to the housing environment. The high end of our revenue guide assumes that the rental season is strong enough to cause us to inflect positive in occupancy and positive in rate in the back half of the year.

我們對同店收入的指導範圍假設 2025 年的基本經營環境與過去兩年相似，沒有重大變化，包括住房環境。我們的收入指南的高端假設是，租賃季節足夠強勁，使我們在下半年的入住率和房價中產生積極的影響。

While the low end of our guidance assumes that the current negative year by year gaps in both rate and occupancy maintained throughout 2025. Our baseline expectation falls in the middle of those two bookends, and we, and would look something like occupancy levels being slightly down on average compared to 2024, and rates improving but still down in the mid single digits as we compare rates this year on average to to rates in 2024.

而我們指引的低端假設是，目前房價和入住率逐年負成長的差距將持續到 2025 年。我們的基準預期介於這兩個數字的中間，我們預計，與 2024 年相比，入住率平均會略有下降，而當我們將今年的平均房價與 2024 年的房價進行比較時，房價雖然有所改善，但仍處於個位數的中間水平。

Shifting to expenses, not a lot to talk about. We're expecting continued pressure and property insurance, but other than that, we're expecting more of the same of what we've seen over the last few years. Real estate taxes are always a wild card, but we don't have the same difficult comp to deal with this year like we did in 2024 and in the fourth quarter in particular.

轉向費用，沒有太多可談的。我們預計壓力和財產保險將繼續存在，但除此之外，我們預計過去幾年的情況將更加類似。房地產稅始終是個不確定因素，但今年我們面臨的困難並不像 2024 年，尤其是第四季。

Our FFO per share expectation for 2025 is a range of $2.50 to $2.59 with a midpoint then of 254.5. That's down about $0.09 from our 2024 FFO per share of $2.63. When you think about the driver of that $0.09 decline, it really is anchored by performance of our core same store portfolio. Looking at same store NOI guidance, our midpoint expectation is down 3%.

我們對 2025 年每股 FFO 的預期範圍是 2.50 美元至 2.59 美元，中間值為 254.5。這比我們 2024 年每股 FFO 2.63 美元下降了約 0.09 美元。當你考慮導致 0.09 美元下降的原因時，你會發現這實際上是由我們核心同店組合的表現所決定的。從同店淨營業收入指引來看，我們的中點預期下降了 3%。

That 3% decline in same store NOI equates to $0.09 of EpiO per share. So then everything else outside of our same store performance is netting to a zero impact year over year at the midpoint.

同店淨營業利潤下降3%相當於每股EpiO 0.09美元。因此，除了同店業績之外的所有其他因素，與去年同期相比，影響均為零。

We have a little bit of drag from properties in Lisa, 1 to $0.02 is the range we provided in our guidance. We have about 1 penny of FFO per share drag from growth and GNA expense at the midpoint of our guidance.

我們對 Lisa 的房產感到有些失望，我們在指導中提供的範圍是 1 到 0.02 美元。在我們的指導中點，成長和 GNA 費用對每股 FFO 造成了約 1 美分的拖累。

And, embedded in our interest expense guidance, we have a negative impact from our need to refinance our upcoming bond maturity this year as our 2025 senior notes have a 4% coupon.

而且，在我們的利息支出指引中，我們因今年需要為即將到期的債券進行再融資而受到負面影響，因為我們的 2025 年優先票據的票面利率為 4%。

Offsetting those items in is the earnings decretion from our external growth activities, including our recent transactions that I outlined a few minutes ago, as well as some modest growth in property management fee income at the midpoint of our provided guidance range. The big picture again, we're looking at same store NOI down 3% at the midpoint of our expectations that that generally leads to down 3% FFO per share at the midpoint of that guidance range.

抵銷這些項目的是我們的外部成長活動帶來的收益減少，包括我幾分鐘前概述的最近交易，以及我們提供的指導範圍中點的物業管理費收入的適度增長。再次從整體來看，我們預計同店淨營業利潤 (NOI) 將下降 3%，處於我們預期的中點，這通常會導致每股 FFO 下降 3%，處於該指導範圍的中點。

So that concludes our prepared remarks. Thanks again for joining us on the call this morning. At this time, Karen, why don't we open up the call for some questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。再次感謝您參加今天早上的電話會議。現在，凱倫，我們何不開始通話以討論一些問題？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Daniel Tricarico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Daniel Tricarico。

I want to ask about the JV transaction. Curious if you see other, similar opportunities with existing partners today. What were the motivating factors from your partners in the, HVP4 to sell and, also are there NOI upside opportunities still for these assets? I know it's, a relatively young portfolio, so curious if there's, maybe more juice to squeeze there.

我想詢問有關合資交易的情況。好奇您是否看到今天與現有合作夥伴有其他類似的機會。您的合作夥伴出售 HVP4 的動機是什麼？這些資產是否還存在淨營運收益 (NOI) 上漲機會？我知道這是一個相對較新的投資組合，因此很好奇它是否能發揮更大的潛力。

Thanks. Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the question. So, no imminent opportunities for other joint ventures. This is a, our partner in this venture had their investment in a closed-end vehicle, so they have been, we have been talking about a liquidity event for them over the past couple of years. And so we've been navigating, what has been a fairly choppy environment, looking for an opportunity that made sense for our partner and made sense for us, and, we arrived at that point. So that was the motivation for why Transact now from their perspective was was needbased.

謝謝。是的，早安。謝謝你的提問。因此，其他合資企業沒有迫在眉睫的機會。這是我們在這個合資企業中的合作夥伴對一個封閉式工具進行了投資，因此，過去幾年我們一直在為他們談論流動性事件。因此，我們一直在相當動盪的環境中探索，尋找對我們的合作夥伴和我們自己都有意義的機會，然後，我們就到達了那個點。所以從他們的角度來看，這就是為什麼現在 Transact 的動機是基於需求的。

I think from an opportunity set, as you mentioned, the assets are, they are generally stable in that we have acquired them as mentioned, back in 2017 through 2021. That said, assets don't fully mature until you've had them and you have a stable tenant base for a number of years.

我認為從機會集來看，正如您所說，這些資產總體上是穩定的，因為我們是在 2017 年至 2021 年期間收購的。也就是說，只有當您擁有資產並且擁有多年穩定的租戶基礎時，資產才算完全成熟。

So we are expecting, both in our underwriting, not only for 2025, but a little bit more juice in 26 or For some of those assets to fully stabilize and for us to fully capture all of the op opportunity that that's embedded in those in those assets.

因此，我們預計，在我們的承保中，不僅在 2025 年，而且在 26 年或以後，這些資產會更加穩定，我們也能充分抓住這些資產中蘊含的所有營運機會。

Could you like quickly share the the cap rate to get to or the initial yield, to get the acquisition to be a creative in year one?

您能否快速分享要達到的資本化率或初始收益率，以使收購在第一年就成為一項創意？

Yeah. So as we think about the HVP4 transaction and our basis and our expectations for 2025, we're looking at a, a 2025 yield of, call it mid to high fives, pick five and three quarters as a number.

是的。因此，當我們考慮 HVP4 交易以及我們的基礎和對 2025 年的預期時，我們正在考慮 2025 年的收益率，稱之為中等到高五，選擇五年又四分之三作為一個數字。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

In the initial remarks you talked a little bit about like the lack of an obvious catalyst for the year, which I think is baked into your guidance. So can you just talk a little bit about like what you're looking for, what's the is it just housing, is it more than that, just trying to get a better understanding of what you're looking for that that could help jumpstart the demand and, accelerate.

在最初的評論中，您談到了今年缺乏明顯的催化劑，我認為這已經包含在您的指導中。那麼，您能否稍微談一談您在尋找什麼，它只是住房嗎，還是更多，只是想更好地了解您在尋找什麼，這可以幫助啟動需求並加速。

The algorithms here.

這裡的演算法。

Yeah, I think it's a mixture of Clarity.

是的，我認為它是 Clarity 的混合體。

Mortgage rates.

抵押貸款利率。

And I think it's kind of a combination of the two of those, as you think about our consumer. I think right now, people are, generally trying to navigate through a lot of conflicting.

我認為，正如您考慮我們的消費者一樣，這是兩者的結合。我認為現在人們普遍正在努力解決許多衝突。

Information, right? The price of your eggs is ridiculous, the price at the pump is very high, but unemployment is very low, unless you're in the Public sector, in which case you're dealing with a lot of uncertainty today. So I just think we need to get universally just some clarity so people can make decisions.

資訊吧？雞蛋的價格高得可笑，加油站的價格也很高，但失業率卻很低，除非你在公共部門，在這種情況下你今天要面對很多不確定性。因此我認為我們需要普遍地獲得一些明確的訊息，以便人們能夠做出決定。

I think the reality on housing with, half the folks who are currently occupying single family homes having mortgage rates that are, 4% or below, again, I think we're just going to need either clarity that this is the new world and therefore acceptance. Or we're going to need to see something that will, adjust those mortgage rates, which means the long end of the curve has to improve, which ultimately comes back to how do we fund the US government and what is the Treasury's view on selling long dated securities.

我認為住房方面的現實情況是，目前居住在獨棟住宅的人中有一半的抵押貸款利率為 4％ 或以下，我認為我們只需要明確這是一個新的世界，因此需要接受它。或者我們需要看到一些能夠調整抵押貸款利率的舉措，這意味著曲線的長端必須改善，這最終又回到了我們如何為美國政府提供資金以及財政部對出售長期證券的看法。

So I think we need clarity and when you sit here today, I just don't know how anyone could have the confidence that they have visibility into the self storage busy season that would give you that, belief instead of hope that it that catalyst is there. Now, I do think, given the way the world works, a lot has to be done nationally between now and July.

因此，我認為我們需要明確的是，當您今天坐在這裡時，我只是不知道任何人如何能夠有信心，他們能夠預見自助存儲的繁忙季節，從而給您這種信心，而不是希望，相信催化劑就在那裡。現在，我確實認為，考慮到世界運轉的方式，從現在到七月，全國各地有很多事情要做。

And so, I certainly am optimistic that if if a lot of the initiatives that are being talked about and in the newspapers every day are are become clear, put in place, and that gives the US consumer and US businesses, more clarity which leads to confidence. I think that could be a real bright spot for our customer and that could create some movement that it is certainly very helpful to the business. It's just very difficult on February 28th to see, what would, what would clearly be, an outcome to kind of where we sit today.

因此，我當然樂觀地認為，如果報紙上每天談論和報道的許多舉措能夠變得明確並得到實施，這將為美國消費者和美國企業帶來更多的清晰度，從而帶來信心。我認為這對我們的客戶來說可能是一個真正的亮點並且可以帶來一些推動力，這對業務肯定非常有幫助。2 月 28 日那天，我們很難知道今天的情況會是如何。

And as a follow up, you did talk about how the fourth quarter may have been marked an inflection point and the seller rating in terms of revenue growth. So is that reflected in like. Are you expecting things for revenue to accelerate through 2025 and then also how I think you still have an easy comparison and other revenue in the first quarter and it gets a little bit more difficult so forth. How might that impact the the same sort of revenue growth.

作為後續問題，您確實談到了第四季度可能已成為收入成長的轉捩點和賣方評級。那麼這也反映在類似情況中。您是否預計到 2025 年收入將會加速成長，然後我認為您仍然可以輕鬆比較第一季度的其他收入，而且這會變得有點困難等等。這會對同樣的收入成長產生什麼影響？

Yeah, I think based on the trends that we saw, particularly beginning December 1st and kind of continuing through today, that fourth quarter, down 1.6% we think is.

是的，我認為根據我們看到的趨勢，特別是從 12 月 1 日開始一直持續到今天的趨勢，我們認為第四季度下降了 1.6%。

Possible to be the, kind of all of the things being equal, where we would have hit that trough, and then, we're going to slowly, improve on that through, throughout the year, how the back half of the year plays out, in either direction. I think, today is where there's that uncertainty and I think we're again, being appropriately cautious in terms of our outlook.

有可能，如果所有條件都相同，我們就會觸及低谷，然後，我們會在全年慢慢地改善這種情況，不管怎樣，看看下半年的表現如何。我認為，今天存在著不確定性，我認為我們在前景方面再次保持適當謹慎。

Good luck in 2025.

祝 2025 年好運。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。

And Chris, as always, appreciate the transparency around the current conditions and your thoughts. I guess to ask about, thinking about street rate, are you concerned?

克里斯一如既往地感謝您對當前情況和想法的透明度。我想問一下，考慮到街道價格，您是否擔心？

In '25 just based on the current conditions that we could see another street freight war, or because we're past the bottom, let's say you talked about, an inflection point in Dal, are you less worried about that that street rate war, I say war, but bottom line, competitors cutting street rates to bring in new customers in 25.

在 25 年，僅基於目前的情況，我們可能會看到另一場街頭貨運戰爭，或者因為我們已經過了底部，假設您談到了 Dal 的拐點，您是否不太擔心那場街頭價格戰，我說戰爭，但底線是，競爭對手降低街頭價格以在 25 年吸引新客戶。

Yeah, again, I don't know, concerned is the right word. Thanks for the question. I think we're just being cautious in terms of how we think about that. The last three months have been more constructive, as it relates to rates to new customers. I mentioned, we're, we've been running the last week or so, last couple weeks down, in that kind of 7%-ish range over last year, which is certainly improvement from what we saw in November. We just need to see it consistently and so again, don't want to, don't want to TRY to extrapolate today to, that April through through July busy season.

是的，我再說一次，我不知道，「擔心」是正確的詞。謝謝你的提問。我認為我們只是對此持謹慎態度。過去三個月，新客戶利率表現得更積極。我提到過，過去一周左右，也就是過去幾週，我們的營運規模一直下降，比去年同期下降了 7% 左右，這肯定比 11 月的情況有所改善。我們只是需要始終如一地看到這一點，所以再說一次，不想，不想試圖推斷今天是四月到七月的繁忙季節。

I think that's where, in the range of expectations, on the one hand, we assume there is continued modest improvement in that negative spread for our portfolio between. Where we are in last year and at the other end of the expectations is just a more cautious approach that, the improvements we've seen stall and don't continue and I think that's kind of how we've chosen at the moment to book in the two ends of our expectations.

我認為，在預期範圍內，一方面，我們假設我們的投資組合之間的負利差將繼續適度改善。去年我們處於預期的另一端，我們採取了更謹慎的態度，我們看到的改進停滯不前並且不會持續，我認為這就是我們目前選擇在預期的兩端進行預定的方式。

And my follow-up question then is again just thinking about the mindset when you decided to put out this guidance and, share your thoughts.

我的後續問題是，再次思考您決定提出此指導時的心態，並分享您的想法。

Has anything happened, anything that's happened in recent weeks, whether it was signposts of housing softness or you see the administration and and some of their policies and changes, you talked about the uncertainty. I mean, you'd have to argue, right, there's more uncertainty today than a couple of months ago. Did anything recently Change your viewer or or form your view to come out more cautious today, or this is how you've really been thinking the last couple of months.

最近幾週發生了什麼事嗎？無論是房屋市場疲軟的跡象，還是政府及其一些政策和變化，您都談到了不確定性。我的意思是，你必須要爭辯，今天的不確定性比幾個月前更嚴重。最近有什麼事情改變了你的觀眾或形成了你的觀點而今天變得更加謹慎，或者這就是你過去幾個月真正思考的方式。

Yeah, you're welcome. So I think again, as always, it's somewhere in the middle. So again, very encouraging trends December, January and February.

是的，別客氣。因此我再次認為，一如既往，它處於中間位置。因此，12 月、1 月和 2 月的趨勢再次非常令人鼓舞。

But I think I've talked about on this call before. We saw periods of encouraging trends in 2023 and 2024, and I think us in the industry, as I said, came out in in early 203, and we came out early last year and and articulated sort of a range where the more optimistic end of that assumed a recovery in demand, right? And at that time, I think we would have looked at housing and said, okay, housing in 24, like it can't get worse than it did in '23, and then it did. So I think there's just this element of, frankly hope's not a strategy and so we've tried to be realistic as we introduce guidance here at the end of February, and again, it'll be 6 weeks from now, we'll be back in front of you and we'll update you on trends at that point.

但我想我之前已經在這次電話會議中談過了。我們在 2023 年和 2024 年看到了令人鼓舞的趨勢，我認為我們在這個行業中，正如我所說，在 203 年初就出現了，我們在去年年初就出現了，並且表達了某種範圍，其中更樂觀的一端假設需求復甦，對嗎？那時，我想我們會關注住房問題，然後說，好吧，24 年的住房問題不可能比 23 年更糟糕，但事實確實如此。所以我認為只是有這種因素，坦白說，希望不是一種策略，因此我們在 2 月底推出指導時試圖做到實事求是，而且，從現在起 6 週後，我們會再次回到您面前，並向您通報那時的趨勢。

Spenser Glimcher, Green Street.

史賓塞‧格里姆徹 (Spenser Glimcher)，綠街。

Thank you. Sorry if I missed this Chris, but did you provide an update on how moving rents are trending as one you?

謝謝。抱歉，如果我錯過了這個，克里斯，但是你有沒有提供有關搬家租金趨勢的最新消息？

Yes, no worries. So move in rents, what I said in my opening remarks is we've gone from, kind of that fourth quarter average, which again the bottom of that was in November of 10.3% and then over the last week we're at a week or two we're running in the, I quoted 7.4%, we've been running between. Between 7 and 7.5, and that's just gradually come down as we've seen trends improve here since December 1st.

是的，不用擔心。因此，入住租金，我在開場白中說過，我們已經從第四季度的平均水平開始，再次最低出現在 11 月份，為 10.3%，然後在過去的一兩週內，我們一直處於 7.4% 的水平，我們一直在兩者之間運行。介於 7 到 7.5 之間，自 12 月 1 日以來，我們看到趨勢有所改善，因此該數字正在逐漸下降。

Okay, great. Thanks. Sorry about that. And then can you provide some color on what you're seeing just more broadly in the transaction market just in terms of field mix, whether they're portfolios or more one-off stabilized versus unstabilized, I know you guys have been more active recently, but just curious what you're seeing even if things haven't gotten across the finish line.

好的，太好了。謝謝。很抱歉。然後，您能否就您在交易市場中看到的更廣泛的情況提供一些信息，僅從領域組合的角度來看，無論是投資組合還是一次性穩定與不穩定，我知道你們最近更加活躍，但我只是好奇即使事情還沒有完成，您看到了什麼。

Yeah, good morning, Spencer. No, nothing has really changed. There, there's an awful lot, continued to be an awful lot of price discovery.

是的，早上好，史賓塞。不，什麼都沒有改變。在那裡，有大量、繼續有大量的價格發現。

There are rumors that that a lot's coming, and I think part of that is, a lot of folks are waiting to TRY to time and TRY to think about what the right environment is if you're a seller to bring something to market.

有傳言說有很多事情即將發生，我認為部分原因是，很多人都在等待時機，並嘗試思考如果你作為賣家將產品推向市場，什麼樣的環境才是合適的。

I think you get mixed messaging if you talk to some of the brokers, I think they have very full plates and they're anxious to bring out a lot of stuff that they're working on. You talked to some other brokers and they don't seem to have as much, they might be doing some.

如果你和一些經紀人交談，我想你會得到混亂的訊息，我認為他們有很多事情要做，並且急於拿出他們正在處理的很多東西。您與其他一些經紀人交談過，他們似乎沒有那麼多，他們可能正在做一些。

Some, indications of value, things like that, but they don't seem to have a lot of stuff that's imminent to market, so.

一些價值指標之類的東西，但他們似乎沒有很多即將上市的東西，所以。

It's not the time of year where you would expect there to be an overwhelming, supply of of new opportunities. So seasonally, I would say it's kind of at or slightly below where you would expect it to be from an opportunity standpoint. Just don't feel like that many things are are trading at the moment. A lot of concern about where interest rates are, where interest rates might be going, and clearly that has an impact on On folks on both sides of the table and their expectations of where they would like to be from a from a cabaret perspective.

現在並不是一年中你期望會出現大量新機會的時期。因此，從季節性來看，我會說它在某種程度上處於或略低於你從機會角度所預期的水平。只是感覺目前很多東西都沒有交易。許多人關心的是利率現在在哪裡，利率可能會走向哪裡，這顯然對談判桌兩邊的人們以及他們對歌舞表演角度所希望處於的位置的期望產生了影響。

Todd Thomas, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

托馬斯 (Todd Thomas)，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Chris, maybe Tim, thanks for the updated, and recent, trends and moving rents. Can you provide an occupancy update as well as of, today? And then, Chris, it's a little hard to tell from your comments, but it sounds like you're encouraged so far year-to-date, performance through February, it sounds like it's running slightly ahead of. The guidance midpoint, but that you're not ready to extrapolate that throughout the peak season and bounce of the year is that the right read? Is that what you're, sort of seeing so far year-to-date?

嗨，謝謝。早安.克里斯，也許是提姆，感謝你們更新的最新趨勢和變動租金。您能否提供今天的入住率更新資訊？然後，克里斯，從你的評論中可能很難看出這一點，但聽起來你受到了鼓舞，從今年迄今為止的表現來看，截至二月份，聽起來你的表現略有領先。指導中點，但您還沒有準備好推斷整個旺季和全年反彈的情況，這是正確的解讀嗎？這就是您今年迄今為止所看到的情況嗎？

Hey Todd, good morning. On your occupancy question, yeah, the occupancy GAAP to last year is closed to 50 basis points negative. The outright occupancy on the new same store pool is 89.5.

嘿，托德，早安。關於您提到的入住率問題，是的，去年的 GAAP 入住率接近負 50 個基點。新同店池的直接佔用率為89.5。

And to your comment, yeah, I think again, it, it's been encouraging what we've seen December, January and February, both in terms of the continued stickiness of the existing customer, our move in volumes, and then the rate at which we're able to get new customers into the portfolio, and then on our existing customer base again the health there is good, we're watching that very closely given, as I said, the core inflation continues to be quite problematic, and, our rate and pace of those increases by and large continues to be about the same. So, again, sitting here today, feel, as I always do, confident in the longer term health of self storage. It's been a choppy couple of years and we elected this year to be as realistic as possible in our in our expectations given that choppy backdrop.

對於您的評論，是的，我再次認為，12 月、1 月和 2 月的表現令人鼓舞，無論是現有客戶的持續粘性、交易量的變動，還是我們吸引新客戶的速度，再者，我們現有客戶群的健康狀況良好，我們正在密切關注這一點，正如我所說的，核心通脹仍然相當成問題，而我們的增長速度和總體步伐大致相同。因此，今天坐在這裡，我和往常一樣，對自助倉儲的長期健康發展充滿信心。過去的幾年很動盪，考慮到動盪的背景，我們選擇在今年盡可能現實地制定我們的預期。

Okay, that's helpful. And then I wanted to ask about the first quarter guidance, the sequential change in one from 4Q, based on that guidance, it seems a little outsized $0.68 this quarter to $0.62 at the midpoint. So high single digit, almost a 10% sequential decline, and that's despite the investments completed in the fourth quarter and early this year. I'm just wondering if there's. Anything else to consider in moving from 4 to 12 besides the normal seasonality that you typically experience.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我想問第一季的指引，與第四季相比的連續變化，基於該指引，本季的 0.68 美元到中間值的 0.62 美元似乎有點過大。如此高的個位數，幾乎連續下降 10％，儘管在第四季度和今年年初完成了投資。我只是想知道是否有。除了通常會經歷的正常季節性因素之外，從 4 升級到 12 還需要考慮其他什麼。

Yeah, Todd, thanks for the question. I, I'm going to let Tim, sort of dive.

是的，托德，謝謝你的提問。我，我要讓蒂姆潛水。

Into that for you. Yeah, it's, I'm trying to think if there's anything different in there, Todd. It's, it really is, primarily the same seasonal type of decline as you would have seen last year. So I'm not thinking that there's anything in there, in that sequential move that's anything other than typical seasonality.

為你而入。是的，我正在想這裡面是否有什麼不同，托德。事實上，這主要是與去年看到的相同的季節性下降。因此，我認為在這種連續變動中，除了典型的季節性之外，還有其他因素。

Okay, if I could sneak one last one in, Tim, what do you have assumed in the guidance that's that 300 million in November maturity, the 4% coupon? What, what's assumed that guidance in terms of timing, and rate?

好的，提姆，如果我可以偷偷問最後一個問題，那麼在指引中您假設 11 月到期的 3 億美元利息是多少？ 4% 的票面利率是多少？在時間和速率方面，假設的指導是什麼？

I'm sorry, you broke up a little bit bit there, but I think I got the gist of the question. So we obviously have, we have our 2025 senior note maturity in November, and that note has a 4% coupon. Our range of expectations and interest expense contemplate, as you would expect, a range of timing that could be, as early as, very early in the second quarter all the way to. If we had some other, opportunities perhaps to think about timing being a little bit closer to maturity, it's not one of those things where I would ever expect us to wait until the day before it's, it matures to raise that capital.

很抱歉，您說得有點含糊，但我想我已經明白問題的要點了。顯然，我們的 2025 年優先票據將於 11 月到期，該票據的票面利率為 4%。正如您所期望的，我們的預期範圍和利息支出考慮的時間範圍可能是最早在第二季初。如果我們有其他的機會，也許可以考慮將時機稍微接近成熟度，而不是我期望我們等到它成熟的前一天才去籌集資金。

So, waited sometime between early in the second quarter towards a little bit later in the in the 3rd quarter is the timing, and then the range of potential outcomes from where we might price. The refinancing is also contemplated within the range. Today, if we were to replace it with a 10 year note, we'd be looking today at somewhere in the mid 5s, hopefully a little bit tighter than that. But our range, that's why our range of interest expense assumptions is as wide as it is because both in timing and rate, a little bit of a range of potential outcomes there.

因此，等待時間大概在第二季初到第三季末之間，然後是可能定價的潛在結果範圍。再融資也在該範圍內考慮。今天，如果我們用 10 年期國債來取代它，我們今天將會看到它處於 5 年期國債中間某個位置，希望比這稍微緊一點。但是我們的範圍，這就是為什麼我們的利息費用假設範圍如此之廣，因為無論是在時間還是利率上，都存在一系列潛在的結果。

Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria，BMO 資本市場。

Hi, good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit further about the confidence in bottoming and kind of seems to revenue declines, moderating it because if I look at, I take your point that occupancy is improved year-to-date, but if we just look at the fourth quarter, the decline in average in place rates.

嗨，早安。只是希望您能進一步談談對觸底的信心以及收入下降的緩和作用，因為如果我看一下，我會接受您的觀點，即今年迄今為止的入住率有所提高，但如果我們只看第四季度，平均到位率有所下降。

Seem to kind of GAAP out again in the fourth quarter. So is that kind of A one-off and we should expect that to to close as well as we go through 25 or just any commentary on on that particular.

第四季似乎又出現了 GAAP 現象。所以這是一種一次性事件，我們應該期待它能夠結束，就像我們經歷 25 個或只是對那個特定的評論一樣。

I would be helpful.

我會提供協助。

Yeah, well, I do think again in the fourth quarter, we saw things kind of soften in November, from a rate perspective, and then.

是的，我確實認為在第四季度，從利率的角度來看，我們看到 11 月的情況有所緩和，然後。

Which we kind of thought was done in October, it went about a month longer than I think we would have thought, going into the quarter and then our expectation of things starting to form just based on demand trends that we saw and then.

我們原以為這項工作在 10 月就完成了，但實際上比我們想像的要晚一個月左右，進入本季度後，我們根據看到的需求趨勢對工作進行了預期。

Pricing from a competitive perspective around our stores, the trends that we were anticipating started.

從我們商店周圍的競爭角度來看定價，我們預期的趨勢已經開始。

To be achieved in December and then have continued into January and February. So the confidence would be in that we saw it, we were just probably off by about 30 days in terms of when it started to happen and then when it began to happen.

將於 12 月實現，然後持續到 1 月和 2 月。因此，我們有信心看到它，只是在它開始發生的時間和它開始發生的時間方面，我們可能相差了大約 30 天。

And our systems reacted, proactively accordingly. It continued now for the last, I don't know, almost 90 days. So, that's kind of how we think about, framing the downside case for 2025.

我們的系統也做出了相應的主動反應。這種情況已經持續了，我不知道，差不多90天了。這就是我們對 2025 年不利狀況的思考。

Thanks and then for my follow up, looks like the third party property management fee income is expected to be up about 4% in 25. Just curious on the assumptions underlying that because I'm assuming you're going to lose some fee income by buying out a couple of the JBs in the fourth quarter and what you've done here to daycare.

謝謝，然後我的後續問題看起來第三方物業管理費收入預計在 25 年增長約 4%。我只是對其背後的假設感到好奇，因為我假設您將在第四季度收購幾個 JB 而損失一些費用收入，以及您對日託所做的事情。

Yeah, great question. So, certainly we're anticipating losing property management fees on or 80% of property management fees on 28 stores as we as we brought them on board. Our assumption also assumes a mix of adding stores and obviously in anticipation, we don't know which, well we know those 28 stores, but other than that, quite certain. That there will be stores that leave our third party management platform throughout 2025. So our range of expectations is again, our best guess on when you net new stores being, coming on board, offset by an estimate of the stores that perhaps could leave the platform and then overlay on top of that, obviously, revenue expectations and fee expectations on those stores that we do manage that all of those.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們當然預計，在引入這些門市後，我們將損失 28 家門市的物業管理費，或損失 28 家門市 80％的物業管理費。我們的假設還假設了增加商店的混合情況，顯然在預期中，我們不知道哪些，我們知道那 28 家商店，但除此之外，相當確定。2025年將會有商店離開我們的第三方管理平台。因此，我們的預期範圍是，我們對新店加入的最佳猜測，抵消了可能離開平台的商店的估計，然後在其基礎上疊加，顯然，我們對這些商店的收入預期和費用預期，所有這些都進行了管理。

Are the variables that go into us formulating the range that we provided.

這些變數是我們制定的範圍。

Thanks if I can just be a little greedy, can you just clarify the funding plans for the HPV4 acquisition and that they've completed year-to-date.

謝謝，如果我可以有點貪心的話，你能否澄清一下 HPV4 收購的資金計劃以及他們今年迄今為止已經完成的計劃。

Yeah, so broadly, when we first start thinking about it as we, as we were contemplating the transaction, that was one of the drivers on why we started to aggressively start to use the ATM program in the back half of 2024. So, I gave you the numbers, we raised. Significant, portion, it's all fungible, but we raised a significant portion of what we kind of earmarked for that on the ATM at share prices above $51. So that's part of it. That was all raised at year end. So if you're trying to model it, I mean, the proceeds would show up today on our incomes or on our balance sheet on the revolver. So we'll have some revolve revolver borrowings when we get to the end of the first quarter, which we haven't had for a while, but that's why you have the capacity. And then over time, we will do what we always do, which is, we're a little bit under leverage. We ended the quarter at 4 times or 4.1 times.

是的，從廣義上講，當我們第一次開始考慮這個問題時，當我們考慮交易時，這就是我們在 2024 年下半年開始積極使用 ATM 程式的驅動因素之一。所以，我給了你我們籌集的數字。很大一部分，都是可替代的，但我們在 ATM 上以高於 51 美元的股價籌集了我們為此預留的很大一部分資金。這就是其中的一部分。這些都是在年底提出來的。所以如果你想要對它進行建模，我的意思是，收益將會出現在今天的我們的收入中，或是我們的循環信貸資產負債表上。因此，當我們到第一季末時，我們會有一些循環借款，這是我們有一段時間沒有的，但這就是你們有能力的原因。然後隨著時間的推移，我們會做我們一直在做的事情，那就是，我們會有點槓桿化。我們以 4 倍或 4.1 倍結束了本季。

That number will move up as we utilize some of the capacity up to Up into the high 4s over time, then we would, if you know it's what we typically tend to do is think about ways to use free cash flow and opportunistically raise capital when appropriate to bring that down and create the capacity and do it all over again. So that's the longer term, that's the longer term objective.

隨著我們利用部分產能，這個數字將會上升到 4% 的高位，然後我們就會，如果你知道我們通常傾向於做的是思考如何使用自由現金流並在適當的時候機會性地籌集資金以降低這一數字並創造產能並再次重複。所以這是長期的，這是長期目標。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ki Bin Kim, Truist Securities.

Ki Bin Kim，Truist 證券公司。

Hey, good morning. This is Kevin. So going back to your guidance, I was wondering if I can ask it in a different way. What typically happens to rates, from the winter period to the spring leasing season, the increase, and I guess what's in your, what's embedded in guidance, and maybe you can put it in perspective like what happened last year.

嘿，早安。這是凱文。所以回到你的指導，我想知道我是否可以用不同的方式詢問。從冬季到春季租賃季節，利率通常會發生什麼變化，利率會增加，我想您的指導中含有什麼內容，也許您可以像去年發生的情況一樣來看待它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So they do increase seasonally. I guess a lot of the numbers that we're referring to are the year over year delta, right? So there's always going to be a a seasonal trend in pricing that once you get to kind of trough pricing late January, early February, you start to see movement up on pricing. That happens all the time. The degree to which it happens has obviously been all over the place here over the past 44 years. Dating back to, massive spike in those rates to now much more modest growth, from a seasonality perspective. So embedded in our expectations for the year are that the are that the, in the middle of our range would be an expectation that the GAAP between rental rates throughout the year continues to compress. But on average, still trails last year's. Seasonal trend on average by mid single digits.

因此它們確實會隨著季節性而增加。我想我們所指的數字很多都是同比變化，對嗎？因此，價格總是會有一個季節性趨勢，一旦在 1 月底或 2 月初達到價格低谷，您就會開始看到價格上漲。這種事情經常發生。顯然，過去 44 年來，這種情況在這裡隨處可見。從季節角度來看，這些利率曾大幅上漲，但現在成長動能已趨於溫和。因此，我們對今年的預期是，我們預期全年 GAAP 租金率將繼續壓縮。但平均而言，仍落後去年。季節性趨勢平均為個位數中段。

Yeah, well, I think the challenge is when we look at it from a year to year standpoint, I sometimes it's due to cos that's why I was asking, if you expected rates to increase.

是的，嗯，我認為挑戰在於，當我們從逐年的角度來看時，有時這是因為所以我問，你是否會預期利率會上升。

And normally 15%, is it in 25, 10%, which is why I was asking about the consequential seasonality in your midpoint.

通常是 15%，那麼在 25% 左右，也就是 10% 左右，這就是我詢問中點的相應季節性的原因。

The same complexity for you is the same complexity in providing an answer that's helpful because it, yeah, that's why I'm speaking on average, right? On average, that's what's going to happen. You could, you always have weird comps on, when you did something last year and you're doing something different this year, but on average, we would expect, Chris just mentioned that those, that GAAP today is in that 7 to 7.5% range, over the past couple of weeks, a month or so. And then, we would expect there will be ebbs and flows that, might go up a little bit, might go down a little bit, but on average, we would expect that to continue to contract. And on average, that GAAP would be lower on over the course of the year than it is today.

對您來說同樣的複雜性與提供有用的答案的複雜性是相同的，因為是的，這就是我平均說話的原因，對嗎？平均而言，這就是將要發生的情況。你總是會遇到奇怪的比較，例如去年你做了一些事情，而今年你做了一些不同的事情，但平均而言，我們預計，克里斯剛才提到，今天的 GAAP 在 7% 到 7.5% 的範圍內，在過去幾週或一個月左右。然後，我們預計會出現一些起伏，可能會略有上升，也可能會略有下降，但平均而言，我們預計它將繼續收縮。平均而言，一年內 GAAP 水平會比現在低。

Even I think, and maybe I'll TRY a little different way if you just think about.

即使我認為，如果你考慮一下，也許我會嘗試一些不同的方法。

Historical norms, right? You would normally see from your lowest.

歷史規範，對吧？您通常會從最低點來看。

Rate to new customers not year over year, just your lowest rate and then you go sequentially through.

新客戶的評級不是逐年提高，而是只計算最低評級，然後再按順序進行。

The busy season and the demand that historically is generated there, you, you'd raise that rate about 20%, and then you would begin to bring that back down as you get into the back half of the year and and the slower times. Over the last couple of years that instead has been more like 15, 16%.

在旺季和歷史上產生的需求下，你會將這個比率提高約 20%，然後，當你進入下半年和淡季時，你會開始將這個比率降低。過去幾年，這一比例反而上升到了 15% 到 16%。

I think again when we think about the range of outcomes here, there's just nothing that we see today that would indicate to us that it's going to be 20, but again in that range, contemplates that it might be that at one end at least modestly better than the 15 or 16.

我再次思考，當我們思考這裡的結果範圍時，我們今天所看到的並沒有任何跡象表明它會是 20，但是再次在這個範圍內，考慮到它的一端可能至少比 15 或 16 要好一些。

Okay, great. And can you remind us, do you have a share repurchase authorization live, and I guess your implied cap today is around 6%. I'm compared to some of the deals that you bought recently. So how do you, I guess what's the mental calculus in terms of buybacks versus something like the HDP, acquisition.

好的，太好了。您能否提醒我們，您是否有有效的股票回購授權，我猜您今天的隱含上限約為 6%。我將其與您最近購買的一些商品進行了比較。那麼，我猜你在回購與 HDP 收購之類的問題上需要進行怎樣的心理計算。

Yeah, we do have a a an authorized share repurchase program.

是的，我們確實有一個授權的股票回購計劃。

The overall philosophy around thinking about that is that if there is a significant disconnect, in valuations, which one could argue that you have that, and the second piece from our perspective is for a prolonged period of time, and that's the piece today that we don't have.

考慮這個問題的整體理念是，如果在估值方面存在顯著的脫節，那麼人們可能會認為存在這種脫節；而從我們的角度來看，第二點是，這種情況會持續很長一段時間，而今天我們不存在這種情況。

We were just raising equity capital less than 90 days ago at prices that we found very attractive relative to where we could deploy that capital. So, the challenge for us, not the challenge, that our perspective on share purchases is that we don't look at it as an opportunity to be a market timer. We look at it from a standpoint of If we had a disconnect in evaluation for a prolonged period of time, clearly that would be an attractive use of capital for us. We don't feel like we have all those variables today.

不到 90 天前，我們剛剛籌集了股本，而且相對於我們可以部署這些資本的地方，我們的價格非常有吸引力。因此，我們面臨的挑戰（而不是挑戰）在於，我們對股票購買的看法是，我們不將其視為進行市場計時的機會。我們從這樣一個角度來看這個問題：如果我們在評估中長期存在脫節，那麼這顯然對我們來說是一種有吸引力的資本使用方式。我們感覺今天不存在所有這些變數。

Okay, thank you guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Thanks Keenan.

謝謝基南。

Eric Luebchow, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Eric Luebchow。

Hi, thanks for taking the question. Could you guys maybe touch up on the New York market a little bit? I know that's continued to grow, above the portfolio average, although, the growth rate has decelerated a bit. I know you've had, some pockets of supply in certain, regions within the MSA. So how are you thinking about that market this year in terms of, moving rate, in terms of occupancy, how we should think about, that throughout 2025?

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。你們可以稍微了解一下紐約市場嗎？我知道它仍在持續成長，並且高於投資組合的平均水平，儘管成長率已經放緩。我知道 MSA 內的某些地區已經有一些供應。那麼，就行動率和入住率而言，您如何看待今年的市場？我們該如何看待整個 2025 年的情況？

Yeah, really optimistic about about the MSA as a whole and continued optimism about the boroughs. So if you parse it between the two.

是的，我對 MSA 整體非常樂觀，並且對各行政區也保持樂觀。因此如果你在兩者之間進行解析。

The boroughs continue to perform very well, we have a dominant presence, we have a dominant brand and that translates into premium pricing that we have been able to maintain throughout this more challenging last couple of years. I think the other bright note about the boroughs.

這些行政區繼續表現良好，我們佔據主導地位，我們擁有主導品牌，這意味著我們在過去幾年的挑戰中能夠維持高昂的價格。我認為另一個亮點是關於行政區的。

No supply. So when you think about about Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, nothing opened in the fourth quarter.

無供給。所以當你想到布魯克林、皇后區和布朗克斯時，第四節什麼都沒有打開。

We saw two openings, really not competitors.

我們看到了兩個空缺，但實際上並不是競爭對手。

To cube.

切成立方體。

In all of 2024, low the minimal expectation of anything being delivered in 2025, so. Continued, positive trends there and we expect those trends to continue throughout 2025.

在整個 2024 年中，降低 2025 年交付任何東西的最低期望，所以。那裡的積極趨勢持續存在，我們預計這些趨勢將持續到 2025 年。

Little more constructive than we have been on Westchester, Long Island, North Jersey. North Jersey in particular, I think we, again, we today believe that the brunt of the supply, which has been a headwind for our performance there, again, I think that also kind of peaked in the fourth quarter and we started to see those stores.

比我們在威斯特徹斯特、長島和北澤西所做的建設性要小得多。特別是在新澤西西北部，我認為，我們今天再次認為，供應的衝擊對我們在那裡的業績造成了不利影響，我認為這也在第四季度達到了頂峰，我們開始看到這些商店。

Which have been producing negative same store revenue growth, start to close that GAAP again slowly, and our, expectation is that continues in in 2025. Does it, again, at one extreme, at the more bullish end, that starts to become.

一直產生負同店收入成長，並開始慢慢再次接近 GAAP，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年。再一次，在一個極端，在更樂觀的一端，情況開始變得如此。

Just the least bit positive as we get into, the year and then, at our midpoint and more bearish case, we assume those assets just continue to sort of chug along where they are, so. Constructive from a supply perspective, probably the most constructive that we've been, in a long time around, the overall MSA continues to be really helpful in the boroughs as we've talked about the last year or so. So again, great market, continue and expect it to be our best performer in in 25 of our major markets.

當我們進入新的一年時，我們對此持最積極的態度，然後，在我們的中點和更悲觀的情況下，我們假設這些資產將繼續在目前的水平上波動，因此。從供應角度來看是建設性的，可能是我們在很長一段時間內最具建設性的，正如我們在過去一年左右所討論的那樣，整體 MSA 對各行政區繼續非常有幫助。所以，再說一次，這是一個偉大的市場，並期望它成為我們 25 個主要市場中表現最好的市場。

Great, thank you guys.

太好了，謝謝你們。

Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

Yeah, hi, two quick ones. The first, looking at operating expenses in markets like Atlanta, Austin, Chicago, where they were up 30 %to 50%. How much of that was the tax costs that you were talking about versus something else going on? And then the second question is, do you think ECRI levels and 25 will be similar to 24?

是的，嗨，兩個簡短的問題。首先，我們來看看亞特蘭大、奧斯汀、芝加哥等市場的營運費用，這些市場的營運費用上漲了 30% 至 50%。其中，您談論的稅收成本和其他因素佔了多少？然後第二個問題是，您認為 ECRI 等級 25 會與 24 相似嗎？

I'll take the expense part on your expense question. You, your intuition was exactly right. The 17.5% increase that we saw overall in real estate taxes, obviously it was concentrated in a handful of errors, the ones that you mentioned were where it happened, so that's why you see a. Kind of an odd print in a few, in a few geographic regions. That's where we had good news at the end of at the end of 2023, which created the tough comp as we got to the end of 2024.

我將負責您關於費用問題的費用部分。你的直覺完全正確。我們看到房地產稅總體上漲了 17.5%，這顯然集中在少數錯誤上，您提到的錯誤就發生在這些錯誤上，所以這就是您看到的原因。在一些地理區域，出現了一些奇怪的印刷品。這就是我們在 2023 年底收到的好消息，這為我們在 2024 年底到來時帶來了艱難的競爭。

And I think as it relates to As it relates to rate increases for the existing customer base.

我認為這與現有客戶群的費率上漲有關。

I think again, at the midpoint one should assume that they're fairly consistent with what we saw in 2024, at the more optimistic end, would just be, some of the testing that we're doing always, and the consumer health improves or stays the same, and we get and are able to, generate a little bit incremental and then at the more bearish end, again, assumes that this.

我再次認為，在中點，人們應該假設它們與我們在 2024 年看到的情況相當一致，在更樂觀的一端，只是我們一直在進行的一些測試，消費者的健康狀況有所改善或保持不變，我們得到並且能夠產生一點增量，然後在更悲觀的一端，再次假設這一點。

Core inflation and other things that are going on within the customer base causes us to bring those increases back down a little bit, but modestly in either direction would be fair to say.

核心通膨和客戶群中發生的其他事情導致我們將這些增幅稍微降低，但可以說，無論朝哪個方向適度降低都是公平的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Eric Wolfe, Citi,

Eric Wolfe，花旗銀行

Hey, thanks. I think your advertising spend was down pretty significantly from last year in the fourth quarter versus up a good bit in the 3rd quarter. Can you just talk about what drove those those decisions and maybe the different approach, if you will, and whether that might have caused some of the weakness in October or November.

嘿，謝謝。我認為你們第四季的廣告支出較去年同期大幅下降，第三季則有所增加。您能否談談是什麼促使了這些決定以及不同的方法，以及這是否可能導致 10 月或 11 月的一些疲軟。

Yeah, no impact from that in terms of of anything that happened necessarily in the in the quarter. I think when you look at timing of that, that's that is always, again, driven by the system to see an opportunity between, it's that balance between rate.

是的，就本季發生的任何事情而言，這不會產生影響。我認為，當你考慮時機時，這總是由系統驅動，以發現其中的機會，這就是利率之間的平衡。

And search, particularly on the paid side, so the SEO efforts are sort of more, consistent and ongoing throughout the year, and then the pedal on the paid side, we think about relative to the opportunity and, so it's just going to always be a little bit lumpy quarter to quarter as we continue to see the signals and then move accordingly. We were a little heavier. Last year, again, I think in the 3rd quarter it was the opposite. So when you look at it for the year, 4.5%, I think that's kind of in line with our normal expectations heading into the into every year, how that flows quarter to quarter can be a little bit more.

而搜索，特別是付費搜索，因此 SEO 工作在全年都更加一致和持續，然後是付費方面的投入，我們考慮的是相對於機會而言的，因此隨著我們繼續看到信號並採取相應的行動，每個季度的情況總是會有些波動。我們的體重稍微重了一點。我認為去年第三季的情況恰恰相反。因此，當您從全年來看，4.5% 的比例，我認為這與我們每年的正常預期是一致的，但季度之間的流動可能會稍微多一些。

Clunky.

笨重。

That it, that's helpful. And then within your same store revenue guidance, can you maybe just tell us what you're factoring in for, other property related income? I think it contributed like 40 basis points, to 2024. So I was just curious if that was sort of sustainable and repeatable in in 2025.

就是這樣，這很有幫助。然後，在您的同店收入指引中，您能否告訴我們您將哪些其他財產相關收入納入考量？我認為到 2024 年它將貢獻 40 個基點。所以我只是好奇這在 2025 年是否可持續且可重複。

Yeah, what is sustainable and reputable, we spoke about earlier in 2024, call it the May time frame. We had the culmination of a lot of initiatives that looked at at at various components of fee income, which ends up in the line item that you're looking at and those.

是的，什麼是可持續和信譽良好的，我們在 2024 年早些時候談到了這一點，稱之為 5 月的時間框架。我們已經完成了許多舉措，研究了費用收入的各個組成部分，最終形成了您所查看的項目。

Those range from administrative fees to late fees to convenience fees, and we made some adjustments there and thinking about how we priced rent rental rates compared to fee structure, and we made some adjustments there. And so you've seen outsized growth since that period of time, year over year. We're going to lap that here when we get to May of this year. So you should expect to still see outsized growth in the first quarter.

這些費用包括管理費、滯納金和便利費，我們對此做了一些調整，並思考瞭如何根據費用結構來定價租金，我們也對此做了一些調整。因此，自那以後，您將看到年復一年的大幅成長。今年 5 月的時候我們會完成這個任務。因此，你應該預期第一季仍將大幅成長。

Of 2025 and then you should see its stabilize out. But to be clear, it's not temporary in nature. It's a more permanent shift in where we're getting revenues from. We believe it to be very sticky and recurring. You're just going to, you're good, once we lap May, in in this year, then, I don't think it'll it'll be an area that is confusing from a modeling standpoint, if that, if that's helpful.

到 2025 年你就會看到它穩定下來。但需要明確的是，它並不是暫時的。這是我們收入來源的更持久的轉變。我們認為它會非常棘手且反覆發生。你只需要這樣做，你就很好了，一旦我們在今年五月度過難關，那麼，我認為從建模的角度來看，它不會是一個令人困惑的領域，如果那樣的話，如果那是有幫助的話。

Yeah, no, that makes that makes sense.

是的，不，這很有道理。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jon Petersen, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的喬恩彼得森。

Oh great, thanks. Maybe if I could just pick a little bit at the, your operating expenses. So, I'm going back and just looking at the past few years, I think some of the pressure that you've had on property taxes and property insurance have been At least somewhat offset by lower personnel expense, but it kind of looks like we're back to a normal inflation growth level there. I'm just, I guess the broader question I'm getting at is there any more operational efficiencies that we should think about that can be squeezed out of the op X line in the business, or is this more tied to inflation going forward?

噢，太好了，謝謝。也許我可以稍微談談您的營運費用。所以，我回顧一下過去幾年，我認為你們在財產稅和財產保險方面所承受的壓力至少在一定程度上被較低的人事費用所抵消，但看起來我們已經回到了正常的通膨增長水平。我只是，我想我要問的更廣泛的問題是，我們是否應該考慮從業務中的 op X 線中擠出更多的營運效率，或者這是否與未來的通貨膨脹更加相關？

Yeah, thanks for the question. When you, when you do look back, typically storage, from an operating expense perspective, overall tends to run at inflationary levels as we continue to implement a service first approach to customer service, looking at the right staffing in the stores, looking, and we do believe in a staffed model just to be clear, we don't ever intend to be a vending machine of self storage, and when we look at, opportunities using AI for example, to, reduce repetitive tasks for our sales center teammates and our and our store teammates, there will be savings. I think, it's fair to say the low hanging fruit, so to speak, has been picked, but, I do expect that we will continue to find some savings again, and then the pressure points on the opposite side, continue to be where we end up on the real estate tax side and then property insurance certainly is an easy one to pick on. So overall, again, I think our range of Expectations for for 2025 and at the midpoint of all those expenses is, kind of plus or minus inflationary.

是的，謝謝你的提問。當你回顧時，通常從營運費用的角度來看，儲存總體上趨於通膨水平，因為我們繼續實施服務第一的客戶服務方式，尋找商店中合適的人員配置，尋找，並且我們確實相信人員配備模式，需要明確的是，我們從來沒打算成為自助存儲的自動售貨機，當我們看到隊友使用等機會，為我們的業務中心和我們以及我們的任務我認為，可以公平地說，低垂的果實已經被摘走了，但我確實希望我們將繼續再次找到一些節省，然後相反的壓力點，繼續是我們最終在房地產稅方面，然後財產保險當然是一個容易挑選的壓力點。所以總的來說，我認為我們對 2025 年的預期範圍以及所有這些費用的中點，都是通膨的正負值。

Okay. And then on the property taxes, I know every jurisdiction is a little bit different, but what would you say the delay is there because I would think that asset values probably haven't increased as much in the past couple of years as they did before. So I guess what's the tail on that being a pressure point.

好的。然後關於財產稅，我知道每個司法管轄區都有點不同，但您認為那裡存在延遲，因為我認為資產價值在過去幾年可能沒有像以前那樣增加那麼多。所以我想，那尾部的壓力點是什麼呢？

Yeah, really difficult question to answer. Sometimes the tail doesn't exist, and sometimes, there are, there are municipalities that don't really catch up.

是的，這個問題確實很難回答。有時，尾巴不存在，有時，有些市鎮並沒有真正趕上。

I mean, more recently, we certainly have some evidence in our favor when we think about if an assessment were to be increased, I mean, obviously, as we're looking at, as we're looking at pressure on the top line and forecasting, negative growth in the same story and why, we can certainly point to that from a valuation standpoint. Interest rates and cap rates are not what they were 2 or 3 years ago. So, I appreciate your question. I wish I had a way to quantify it for you. The tail is impossible to predict, which is one of the mading parts about trying to predict that line item.

我的意思是，最近，當我們考慮如果評估增加時，我們肯定有一些對我們有利的證據，我的意思是，顯然，當我們看到，當我們看到頂線壓力和預測時，同樣的故事中會出現負增長以及原因，我們當然可以從估值的角度指出這一點。利率和資本化率與兩、三年前已不再相同。因此，我很感謝您的提問。我希望我有辦法為您量化它。尾部是無法預測的，這是嘗試預測該項目的困難之一。

Yeah, that's fair.

是的，這很公平。

All right.

好的。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Ki Bin Kim, Truist Securities.

Ki Bin Kim，Truist 證券公司。

Thanks for allowing me back. Just a couple of quick follow-ups, given that you already provided oneQ SFO guidance, I was curious if you can provide what SAM why it could look like in the first quarter.

謝謝你允許我回來。只需快速跟進幾個問題，鑑於您已經提供了 oneQ SFO 指導，我很好奇您是否可以提供 SAM 在第一季的表現如何。

That that would be, that would be, we're the only ones who provide a, as far as I know we're the only ones who provide you an FFO guidance for the quarter, and I want us to give you underlying assumptions, but, no, I mean, I.

那將是，那將是，據我所知，我們是唯一提供本季度 FFO 指導的公司，我希望我們能為您提供基本的假設，但是，不，我的意思是，我。

Think.

思考。

I mean Chris is already giving you where we stand through goodness, 2/3 of the quarter. So, that, that's where we'll stop for prognosticating in the first quarter, but thanks.

我的意思是克里斯已經透過善良告訴你了我們的立場，即本季的 2/3。所以，這就是我們對第一季的預測就此停止的地方，謝謝。

And.

和。

Yeah, you're welcome.

是的，別客氣。

And then just going back to like the potential job changes or turmoil in DC type like Trump, do and cost cutting, there's obviously a lot of different factors if those cost cuts, lead to lower inflation and lower treasury. I mean, there's a lot of different factors, but I was curious, job cuts in a local MSA with a bad economy is probably backward storage, but do you have some early thoughts on Potential job cuts in DC, but with a better economy, broader economy, could that be even a potential net positive for storage in DC?

然後回到像川普這樣的潛在的就業變化或華盛頓特區的動盪，以及削減成本，如果這些成本削減導致通貨膨脹和國庫縮水，顯然有很多不同的因素。我的意思是，有很多不同的因素，但我很好奇，在經濟不景氣的當地 MSA 中裁員可能會導致存儲落後，但你對 DC 的潛在裁員有什麼初步想法嗎，但在經濟好轉、經濟更加廣泛的情況下，這對 DC 的存儲來說甚至可能是一個潛在的淨利好嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I think the unfortunate reality is that answer is yes. So here's the example, you have the probationary employees.

我認為不幸的現實是答案是肯定的。舉個例子，你有試用期員工。

Many of which are recent college graduates who relocated or moved to Washington or got a job in Washington, that has now been taken away from them, and they've got an apartment and they've bought possessions to furnish and fit out that apartment and now they're unemployed. So, what do they do? And the sadness is that many of them either need to return home or Otherwise, figure out how to replace the job that they lost and that oftentimes leads to dislocation which leads to a need for for our product. So, I think sadly the outlook for storage in in the District of Columbia and, the DMV in general is probably a little bit more positive as a result of what's going on.

其中許多人都是剛畢業的大學生，他們搬到了華盛頓或在華盛頓找到了工作，但現在工作機會已經離他們而去，他們有一套公寓，買了一些物品來裝飾和裝修那套公寓，但現在他們失業了。那麼，他們做什麼呢？可悲的是，他們中的許多人要么需要回國，要么想辦法找到替代失去的工作，而這往往導致流離失所，從而導致對我們的產品的需求。因此，我認為遺憾的是，鑑於目前的情況，哥倫比亞特區和 DMV 的儲存前景可能總體上會更加樂觀一些。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Thank you, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

That so to in a session. I will turn the call over to Chris Moore for closing remark.

在會話中也是如此。我將把電話轉給克里斯摩爾 (Chris Moore) 做結束語。

Yeah, thanks everybody. Speaking on behalf of our team, we are optimistic in the future of our business, our customer, and the economic health of our country.

是啊，謝謝大家。我代表我們的團隊發言，我們對我們的業務、我們的客戶以及我們國家的經濟健康的未來充滿樂觀。

These last few years have presented certain challenges, but I'll end with As Warren Buffett famously said, you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out, so it's easy to do well when there are helpful tailwinds.

過去幾年帶來了一些挑戰，但我想用沃倫·巴菲特的名言來結束這段話，你不知道誰在裸泳，直到潮水退去，所以當有有利的順風時，你很容易做得很好。

The strength of our people, our culture, and our platform become clear and obvious during periods of uncertainty and volatility.

在不確定和動盪的時期，我們的員工、我們的文化和我們的平台的力量變得清晰而明顯。

So thanks for being part of the call, and we look forward to seeing many of you in person next week. Have a great weekend.

感謝大家參加電話會議，我們期待下週能與大家見面。祝週末愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, Today's call. Thank you all for joining and you may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議。感謝大家加入，現在可以斷開連線。