CubeSmart (CUBE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CubeSmart Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Friday, March 1, 2024.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 CubeSmart 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）此通話錄音時間為 2024 年 3 月 1 日星期五。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Schutzer, Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給財務副總裁 Josh Schutzer。請繼續。

Thank you, Joanna. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to CubeSmart's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Participants on today's call include Chris Marr, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tim Martin, Chief Financial Officer. Our prepared remarks will be followed by a Q&A session.

謝謝你，喬安娜。大家，早安。歡迎參加 CubeSmart 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的參與者包括總裁兼執行長 Chris Marr；提姆·馬丁，財務長。我們準備好的發言之後將進行問答環節。

In addition to our earnings release, which we issued -- which was issued yesterday evening, supplemental operating and financial data is available under the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.cubesmart.com.

除了昨天晚上發布的收益報告外，補充營運和財務數據還可在公司網站 www.cubesmart.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

The company's remarks will include certain forward-looking statements regarding earnings and strategy that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. The risks and factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements are provided in documents the company furnishes to or files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the Form 8-K we filed this morning together with our earnings release filed with the Form 8-K and the Risk Factors section of the company's annual report on Form 10-K.

該公司的言論將包括某些有關收益和策略的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。本公司向美國證券交易委員會提供或提交的文件中提供了可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和因素，特別是我們今天早上與收益發布一起提交的 8-K 表格連同公司年度報告表8-K 和表10-K 的風險因子部分一起提交。

In addition, the company's remarks include reference to non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in the fourth quarter financial supplement posted on the company's website at www.cubesmart.com.

此外，該公司的言論也提到了非公認會計原則措施。 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的調整可以在公司網站 www.cubesmart.com 上發布的第四季度財務補充中找到。

I will now turn the call over to Chris.

我現在將把電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Josh. Good morning, everybody. Last evening, we provided our solid operating results for the fourth quarter of 2023 and introduced our expectations and guidance on our key metrics for 2024. Tim Martin will provide more color and insight on both of those in his prepared remarks.

謝謝，喬許。大家早安。昨晚，我們提供了2023 年第四季度的穩健營運業績，並介紹了我們對2024 年關鍵指標的預期和指導。蒂姆·馬丁將在他準備好的演講中對這兩個問題提供更多的見解和見解。

At a very high level, operating trends have stabilized when comparing to the volatility that we experienced in the first 3 quarters of 2023, but price sensitivity for new customers remains elevated given the tight housing market and a particularly challenging competitive environment. Once customers enter the portfolio, they remain strong as they have elevated lengths of stay and continue to accept ECRIs and our customer credit metrics remain in line with prepandemic levels.

與我們在2023 年前三個季度經歷的波動相比，營運趨勢已在很高的水平上趨於穩定，但鑑於住房市場緊張和競爭環境特別具有挑戰性，新客戶的價格敏感度仍然很高。一旦客戶進入投資組合，他們就會保持強勁，因為他們的停留時間更長，並繼續接受 ECRI，而且我們的客戶信用指標仍與疫情前的水平保持一致。

Our urban markets have outperformed the faster deceleration of our Sunbelt markets as the lower beta nature of these markets has continued to support steadier performance. The strong demographic profile for our portfolio should support performance through any phase of the cycle as New York City remains the bright spot in our portfolio with strong performance over the last year now making it our highest growth market.

我們的城市市場的表現優於陽光地帶市場的更快減速，因為這些市場的貝塔係數較低，繼續支持更穩定的表現。我們投資組合強大的人口結構應該會支持整個週期任何階段的業績，因為紐約市仍然是我們投資組合中的亮點，去年的強勁表現使其成為我們成長最快的市場。

The transaction market remains quiet as the recent rise in rates has kept the cost of capital elevated and we continue to have a bit of a bid-ask spread between seller expectations and our expectations. Our investment-grade balance sheet is in excellent shape, no material maturities, minimal exposure to floating rate debt and significant leverage capacity, which we believe positions us to transact as attractive opportunities return to the market.

交易市場仍然平靜，因為最近的利率上升導致資本成本升高，而且我們的賣方預期和我們的預期之間仍然存在一些買賣差價。我們的投資等級資產負債表狀況良好，沒有重大到期日，浮動利率債務風險最小，槓桿能力強大，我們相信這使我們能夠在有吸引力的機會回歸市場時進行交易。

Thanks for joining the call today, and I will turn it over to Tim for additional commentary. Tim?

感謝您參加今天的電話會議，我會將其轉交給蒂姆以獲取更多評論。提姆？

Great. Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking a few minutes out of your day to spend it with us. I'll provide a quick review of fourth quarter results and then jump into some additional color on '24 expectations and guidance.

偉大的。謝謝，克里斯。大家早安，感謝您抽出幾分鐘與我們一起度過。我將快速回顧第四季度的業績，然後對 24 年的預期和指導進行一些補充。

Same-store NOI growth for the fourth quarter was 1.2%. Driving that were same-store revenues growing 0.4% for the quarter with realized rents per square foot growing 1.8% compared to last year, offset by occupancy levels dropping 110 basis points on average compared to last year. Same-store expenses declined 1.8% during the fourth quarter, driven largely by the real estate tax line item as we received some significant refunds and tax reductions in the fourth quarter. We reported FFO per share as adjusted of $0.70 for the quarter, representing 4.5% growth over last year.

第四季同店 NOI 成長 1.2%。推動這一成長的因素是，本季同店營收成長了0.4%，每平方英尺實現租金與去年相比成長了1.8%，但入住率與去年相比平均下降了110 個基點，抵消了這一影響。第四季同店支出下降了 1.8%，這主要是由房地產稅項目推動的，因為我們在第四季度收到了一些重大的退款和減稅。我們報告本季調整後的每股 FFO 為 0.70 美元，比去年增長 4.5%。

During the quarter, we also announced a 4.1% increase in our quarterly dividend up to an annualized $2.04 per share. On yesterday's close, that represents a 4.7% dividend yield.

在本季度，我們也宣布季度股息增加 4.1%，年化每股股息達 2.04 美元。以昨天收盤價計算，股息殖利率為 4.7%。

On the external growth front, in the fourth quarter, we acquired one store for $22 million, we partially opened one of our JV development stores and we added 43 stores to our third-party managed portfolio, bringing us to 167 stores added for the year and 795 third-party stores on the platform at year-end. As Chris mentioned, our balance sheet position remains strong. All of our debt, except for our revolver, is fixed. So less than 1% of our outstanding debt was variable rate as we started 2024.

在外部成長方面，第四季度，我們以2,200 萬美元收購了一家商店，部分開設了一家合資開發商店，並在第三方管理的投資組合中增加了43 家商店，使我們全年增加的商店數量達167 家截至年底，該平台第三方店鋪數量達795家。正如克里斯所提到的，我們的資產負債表狀況仍然強勁。除了左輪手槍之外，我們所有的債務都是固定的。因此，從 2024 年開始，我們的未償債務中只有不到 1% 是可變利率的。

We faced no significant maturities until November of '25, and we have a weighted average debt maturity of 5.4 years. We further reduced our leverage levels during '23 and ended the year at 4.1x debt to EBITDA, giving us ample capacity and liquidity to finance future growth when attractive opportunities present themselves.

直到 2025 年 11 月，我們才面臨重大到期問題，加權平均債務期限為 5.4 年。我們在 23 年期間進一步降低了槓桿水平，並在年底達到 EBITDA 的 4.1 倍債務，這為我們提供了充足的能力和流動性，以便在有吸引力的機會出現時為未來的增長提供融資。

Looking forward, details of our 2024 earnings guidance and related assumptions were included in our release last evening. Our 2024 same-store property pool increased by just 6 stores this year. Consistent with prior years, our forecasts are based on a detailed asset-by-asset ground-up approach and consider the impact at the store level, if any, of competitive new supply delivered in '22, '23 as well as the impact of 2024 deliveries that will compete with our stores.

展望未來，我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中包含了 2024 年盈利指引和相關假設的詳細資訊。今年我們的 2024 年同店物業池僅增加了 6 家門市。與往年一致，我們的預測是基於詳細的逐項資產的基礎方法，並考慮了 22 年、23 年交付的有競爭力的新供應對商店層面的影響（如果有）以及2024 年的交付量將與我們的商店競爭。

Embedded in our same-store expectations for '24 is the impact of new supply that will compete with approximately 27% of our same-store portfolio. For context, that 27% is down from 30% of stores impacted by supply last year and down from the peak of 50% of stores impacted back in 2019. The midpoint of our revenue guidance range assumes that the housing market improves marginally off of 30-year lows, but remaining well below historical norms. This would lead to negative year-over-year gaps in both occupancy and rate, reaching parity in the fall and then growing slightly from there.

我們對 24 年同店的預期中包含了新供應的影響，它將與我們約 27% 的同店產品組合競爭。就背景而言，這27% 低於去年受供應影響的商店的30%，也低於2019 年受影響商店50% 的峰值。我們收入指導範圍的中點假設房地產市場在30% 的基礎上略有改善年低點，但仍遠低於歷史正常水準。這將導致入住率和房價同比出現負差距，並在秋季達到平價，然後略有增長。

The high end of our revenue guidance range implies more of an improvement in the housing market, driving seasonality closer to historical levels. This improved demand environment would lead to year-over-year gaps in both occupancy and rate to reach parity in mid-summer and then flip positive in the back half of the year.

我們的收入指導範圍的高端意味著房地產市場的改善，使季節性更接近歷史水平。需求環境的改善將導致入住率和入住率的同比差距在仲夏達到同等水平，然後在今年下半年轉為正數。

And then the low end of our revenue guidance range assumes another year of largely frozen housing mobility, driving another year of muted seasonality throughout the spring and summer. This slower demand environment would mean a continued lack of pricing power causing the negative year-over-year gaps in occupancy and rate to persist through most of 2024, albeit at narrowing spreads from current levels.

然後，我們的收入指導範圍的低端假設又一年住房流動性基本凍結，導致整個春季和夏季的季節性淡季又一年。這種放緩的需求環境意味著定價能力持續缺乏，導致入住率和房價年比負差距將持續到 2024 年的大部分時間，儘管利差較目前水準有所收窄。

Shifting to same-store expenses. We've had a lot of success in controlling our operating expense growth here over the last 2 years, averaging expense growth of only 2.2% compared to 6% expense growth for our storage peers over the same period. That's great news for 2022 and 2023, but sets us up for some pretty tough comps in 2024. We introduced same-store expense growth in a range of 5.5% to 7% growth in '24. On an absolute basis, there are a few line items that are pressuring expense growth into '24, and the biggest driver is real estate taxes.

轉向同店支出。過去 2 年，我們在控制營運費用成長方面取得了巨大成功，平均費用成長僅為 2.2%，而同期儲存同業的費用成長為 6%。這對 2022 年和 2023 年來說是個好消息，但也讓我們在 2024 年面臨一些相當艱難的競爭。我們在 2024 年宣布同店費用增長在 5.5% 到 7% 的範圍內。從絕對角度來看，有一些項目正在對 24 世紀的支出成長產生壓力，其中最大的推動因素是房地產稅。

As I mentioned earlier, this quarter's guidance beat was largely driven by some significant refunds and tax reductions, again, great news for '23, but creates a really difficult comp for 2024. Overall, we're expecting real estate taxes to grow in the high single digits this year as a result.

正如我之前提到的，本季的指引主要是由一些重大退款和減稅推動的，這對23 年來說是個好消息，但對2024 年來說卻是一個非常困難的競爭。總體而言，我們預計房地產稅將在2024 年增長。結果，今年的數字達到了很高的個位數。

Property insurance is another line item that will continue to see pressure. Our annual insurance policy resets on May 15 of each year, and we had a 43% increase in cost last year. So that continues for the first 4.5 months of '24. And then beyond that, we're anticipating another 20-plus percent increase in our renewal again this year.

財產保險是另一個將繼續面臨壓力的項目。我們的年度保單於每年 5 月 15 日重置，去年我們的費用增加了 43%。 2024 年的前 4.5 個月一直是如此。除此之外，我們預計今年的續約量將再次增加 20% 以上。

The third area of pressure comes from winter-related expenses, primarily snow removal costs. We had a very favorable winter in 2023 from that perspective and our guidance assumes a more normal level of those costs in 2024. So overall, expenses are, again, expected to grow 5.5% to 7%, but taking out real estate taxes, property insurance and snow removal costs, all other expenses combined are expected to grow plus or minus at inflationary levels.

第三個壓力來自冬季相關費用，主要是除雪費用。從這個角度來看，我們在2023 年度過了一個非常有利的冬季，我們的指導假設2024 年這些成本處於更正常的水平。因此，總體而言，支出預計將增長5.5% 至7%，但扣除房地產稅、財產稅和保險和除雪費用，所有其他費用加起來預計會隨著通貨膨脹水準的增加或減少。

Our FFO guidance does not include the impact of any speculative acquisition or disposition activity as levels of activity and timing are difficult to predict.

我們的 FFO 指南不包括任何投機性收購或處置活動的影響，因為活動水準和時間很難預測。

To wrap up, thanks to our entire CubeSmart team for a really productive year in 2023. We're excited about our position to execute our business plan in 2024. Thanks again for joining us on the call this morning.

最後，感謝我們整個 CubeSmart 團隊在 2023 年取得了卓有成效的一年。我們對 2024 年執行業務計劃感到興奮。再次感謝您今天早上加入我們的電話會議。

At this time, Joanna, let's open up the call for some questions.

現在，喬安娜，讓我們打開電話詢問一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes Kassandra Fieber from Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Kassandra Fieber。

So your acquisition activity was pretty muted in 2023. In your 2024 guidance, you're assuming acquisitions of $100 million to $200 million. You touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks. Can you share what you're seeing in the acquisition market? And then also, are there any markets that you're focused on specifically?

因此，您在 2023 年的收購活動相當平靜。在您的 2024 年指引中，您假設收購金額為 1 億至 2 億美元。您在準備好的發言中稍微談到了這一點。能分享一下您在收購市場上看到的情況嗎？還有，您有特別關注的市場嗎？

As we sit here today, we don't have a whole lot of visibility in our range above -- in the range, above the range as it relates to external growth. There's very little product on the market as we sit here today, although we've certainly heard from brokers in recent months that there were a number of BOVs on the shelf, and there was seemingly some activity that was stirring up here when we saw rates move downward a little bit. I think there was some excitement that there was going to be a wave of potential opportunity. That seems to have cooled off for the moment.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對上述範圍沒有太多的了解——在這個範圍內，在這個範圍之上，因為它與外部增長有關。當我們今天坐在這裡時，市場上的產品很少，儘管最近幾個月我們確實從經紀人那裡聽說，貨架上有許多 BOV，而且當我們看到利率時，這裡似乎正在激起一些活動向下移動一點。我認為人們對即將出現一波潛在機會感到興奮。看來這一刻已經涼了。

So difficult to predict. What we do know is that our team is ready. We're still underwriting every opportunity that we can get our hands on. Our availability of capital, we've never been in a better position from a leverage perspective to take advantage of external growth opportunities should they present themselves. All that said, we fully expect to remain patient and wait for the right opportunities for us to jump in and start to be more acquisitive than we have been here over the past year, 1.5 years.

如此難以預測。我們所知道的是我們的團隊已經準備好了。我們仍在為我們能得到的每一個機會提供擔保。我們擁有充足的資本，從槓桿的角度來看，我們從未處於更好的位置，可以利用外部成長機會（如果它們出現）。話雖如此，我們完全希望保持耐心，等待合適的機會介入並開始比過去一年（1.5 年）更加收購。

Okay. That's helpful. And then can you talk about what you're seeing in New York in terms of demand trends in January and February? And then given that New York is one of your strongest markets, I'm curious how doing New York 2024 prospects compare to the overall guidance you provided for 2024?

好的。這很有幫助。然後您能談談您在紐約看到的一月和二月的需求趨勢嗎？鑑於紐約是你們最強大的市場之一，我很好奇紐約 2024 年的前景與你們為 2024 年提供的整體指導相比如何？

Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Chris. Demand trends in January and February were seasonally consistent in the New York MSA as we would have expected based on historic trends, so it continues to be a solid market for us. And as we think about New York as an MSA and each of the individual components of that certainly expect the boroughs to outperform again in 2024, our expectations of kind of the broader portfolio from a revenue perspective. And that's going to be the boroughs at one extreme and then pressure in North Jersey, I'm sure you've heard this from others, as a result of the greater impact of new supply in some of our North Jersey markets than the MSA as a whole. So will continue to be a top market for us in '24.

是的。謝謝你的提問。這是克里斯。正如我們根據歷史趨勢所預期的那樣，紐約 MSA 1 月和 2 月的需求趨勢與季節性一致，因此它對我們來說仍然是一個穩固的市場。當我們將紐約視為 MSA 時，其中的每個組成部分肯定預計這些行政區將在 2024 年再次跑贏大盤，從收入的角度來看，我們對更廣泛的投資組合的期望。這將是一個極端的行政區，然後是北澤西的壓力，我相信您已經從其他人那裡聽到這一點，因為我們北澤西的一些市場的新供應的影響比 MSA 更大，因為整個。因此，24 年仍將是我們的首要市場。

The next question comes from Eric Wolfe at Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。

You mentioned in your prepared remarks that when you get customers in the door they're showing signs of strength. So I was curious, when you put bigger discounts in place or promotions in place like first month is free and 40% off, what is usually assumed in terms of getting those discounted tenants to market? Like how long does it take on average? What's the probability that they accept versus those that are coming in closer to market?

您在準備好的發言中提到，當您讓顧客上門時，他們就表現出了力量的跡象。所以我很好奇，當你實行更大的折扣或促銷活動（例如第一個月免費並享受 40％ 的折扣）時，通常會假設什麼讓這些打折的租戶進入市場？例如平均需要多長時間？與那些更接近市場的人相比，他們接受的機率是多少？

Yes. I think if you just look at it -- because it's kind of a customer-specific question, but if you look at it across the portfolio, obviously, the use of a first month's free there's a lot of put and take there. So very attractive to the customer. Obviously, they get to market in month 2 when full rent kicks in. They tend to be a more volatile customer because there's, obviously, an appeal to having that first month be free. And over an entirety of that population or that cohort, they tend to be a lower quality customer in terms of length of stay and credit.

是的。我認為如果你只是看它 - 因為這是一個特定於客戶的問題，但如果你在整個投資組合中看它，顯然，使用第一個月的免費，那裡有很多看跌期權。所以對顧客來說非常有吸引力。顯然，他們會在第二個月全額租金開始時進入市場。他們往往是一個波動性更大的客戶，因為顯然，第一個月是免費的。在整個人口或群體中，就停留時間和信用而言，他們往往是品質較低的客戶。

When you think about Internet discounting, again, there's not a one size fits all. It's going to depend upon the behavior we expect from that specific customer. So typically, you may have rate increases that get you all the way back to market within the first 4 months, sometimes that's the first 6 months, really depends upon the customer. But that's the typical cadence and difference at a macro level between those two cohorts.

當您考慮網路折扣時，再次強調，沒有一刀切的方法。這將取決於我們期望該特定客戶的行為。因此，通常情況下，您可能會在前 4 個月（有時是前 6 個月）內透過利率上漲來讓您一路回到市場，這實際上取決於客戶。但這是這兩個群體之間宏觀層面上的典型節奏和差異。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I was also just wondering sort of as you look at things today, what do you think are sort of the best leading indicators for street rates, meaning those that have the highest correlation to future changes in those street rates. You talked about how you don't expect much improvement in the housing market.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我也想知道，當您今天看待事物時，您認為街道價格的最佳領先指標是什麼，即那些與街道價格未來變化具有最高相關性的指標。您談到您預計房地產市場不會有太大改善。

But if I'm trying to calculate where your street rates are today, it kind of looks like they're in the [$13]. So it seems like you need to see a reasonable amount of improvement to kind of get up to that level that you discussed were things cross over in the fall. So I was just trying to understand what you're looking at today that helps you sort of form that guidance.

但如果我試圖計算今天的街道價格，看起來好像是在 [13 美元] 範圍內。因此，您似乎需要看到合理的改進才能達到您討論的秋季情況交叉的水平。所以我只是想了解您今天所看到的內容，以幫助您形成該指導。

Yes, very nuanced question and a nuanced answer. So part of it, obviously, is what happened last year, right? So when we talk about getting back to parity or crossing over, a part of that is what was a very unusual and pretty tepid demand profile in 2023, especially as we got later into the year. And we really did not have a typical busy season last year at all.

是的，非常微妙的問題和微妙的答案。顯然，其中一部分是去年發生的事情，對嗎？因此，當我們談論回到平價或交叉時，其中一部分是 2023 年的需求狀況非常不尋常且相當不溫不火，尤其是在今年晚些時候。去年我們確實沒有經​​歷過典型的繁忙季節。

When you think about, again, the various puts and takes as it relates to this year, movement, ultimately, is the answer, right? We rely somewhat on housing to create that seasonal uplift in demand, but there are, obviously, other drivers that relate to that as well. So we look for that mobility, which, again, in the next couple of weeks, you start to look for an opportunity to seasonally move rate up and so March 15 to June 1 -- June 15, are going to be pretty telling as we think about how this year is going to play out.

當你再次思考與今年相關的各種投入和支出時，最終的答案就是運動，對吧？我們在某種程度上依賴住房來創造需求的季節性成長，但顯然還有其他相關的驅動因素。因此，我們尋找這種流動性，在接下來的幾週內，您將開始尋找季節性上調利率的機會，因此3 月15 日至6 月1 日——6 月15 日將非常有說服力，因為我們想想今年會如何進行。

The health of the consumer seems really good. I mean our customer metrics are -- continue to be high quality. And we continue to see our existing customer base be pretty solid. So that's a positive for us. So really, it's going to come down to just that general mobility, and we're going to know a lot more starting mid-March through June to see how '24 is going to play out.

消費者的健康狀況看起來確實很好。我的意思是我們的客戶指標是——繼續保持高品質。我們繼續看到我們現有的客戶群非常穩固。所以這對我們來說是積極的。所以說真的，這將歸結為一般的流動性，從 3 月中旬到 6 月我們將了解更多信息，看看 24 會如何發展。

The next question comes from Jeff Spector of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

It's Lizzy on for Jeff. I was hoping for more color on your lower-performing Sunbelt markets, and primarily Florida, that was kind of touched on at the start of the call. Can you speak to any common themes you're noticing across your Sunbelt markets, really more so on move-in rate trends? And then also curious to hear how the existing customer is responding to your ECRI program today.

莉茲為傑夫代言。我希望在表現不佳的陽光地帶市場上有更多的色彩，主要是佛羅裡達州，這在電話會議開始時就有所涉及。您能否談談您在陽光地帶市場中註意到的任何共同主題，尤其是入住率趨勢？然後也很想知道現有客戶今天對您的 ECRI 計劃有何反應。

Yes. So taking it from the end to the beginning, if the question was that, is there any different behavior in Sunbelt markets for the existing customer base, then that answer is there is not any different behavior in the Sunbelt markets than it is in the rest of the country. Again, healthy consumer, healthy customer and the rate increase process pretty consistent with what we saw certainly in the last 6 months of last year.

是的。因此，從頭到尾，如果問題是，現有客戶群在 Sunbelt 市場中是否有任何不同的行為，那麼答案就是 Sunbelt 市場中的行為與其他市場沒有任何不同國家的。再說一次，健康的消費者、健康的客戶和利率上漲過程與我們在去年最後 6 個月所看到的情況非常一致。

From an occupancy and demand perspective, generally across the Sunbelt, you've just got -- you've got markets that are higher volatility than the markets that are more urban. You have markets that rely more on housing than you do in the more urban markets. West Florida, you have a continued bit of an impact from a benefit from hurricanes that has made comps a little bit more difficult. You've obviously got a little more of an impact of supply in the Sunbelt markets than you do in the more urban markets. I think those are kind of the high-level reasons why you're seeing some difference in performance.

從入住率和需求的角度來看，通常在陽光地帶，你會發現市場的波動性高於城市市場。有些市場比城市市場更依賴房屋。西佛羅裡達州，颶風帶來的持續影響使比賽變得更加困難。顯然，與城市市場相比，陽光地帶市場的供應影響更大一些。我認為這些是您看到性能差異的高級原因。

And in this stage of the cycle, you would expect that the Chicagos, New Yorks, et cetera, are going to perform a bit better because they just rely less on that housing movement and more on other drivers of demand.

在周期的這個階段，你可能會期望芝加哥、紐約等城市的表現會更好一些，因為它們更少地依賴房地產運動，而更依賴其他需求驅動因素。

Great. And I was also curious on -- maybe this was touched on earlier in someone's question as well, but back in the fall, you guys really spoke to sort of the website upgrades you were making and how that was translating into top of the funnel demand. Are you able to quantify how that's impacted your conversion rate for bringing in new customers into year-end and into -- as we sit in February?

偉大的。我也很好奇——也許這在早些時候有人的問題中也提到過，但在秋天，你們確實談到了你們正在進行的網站升級，以及如何轉化為漏斗頂部的需求。您能否量化這對年底和二月引進新客戶的轉換率有何影響？

Yes. The impact of those changes improved modestly the conversion rate of customers. Again, it's difficult to isolate that relative to other market forces. Obviously, we continue to see trends in marketing spend that are bouncing all over the place, depending upon who we're competing against in those particular markets. And so that puts pressure on us from the other side of the equation, and we're seeing a little bit different customer behavior.

是的。這些變化的影響略微提高了客戶的轉換率。同樣，很難將其與其他市場力量區分開來。顯然，我們繼續看到行銷支出的趨勢在各地反彈，這取決於我們在這些特定市場中的競爭對手。因此，這從等式的另一邊給我們帶來了壓力，我們看到了一些不同的客戶行為。

But all these continuous improvements in terms of making the experience for the customer as simple, easy and intuitive as possible, we believe and they will continue on as we move into '24 and beyond, continue to drive us towards meeting that customer where they want to be met.

但我們相信，所有這些不斷改進的目的都是為了讓客戶的體驗盡可能簡單、輕鬆和直觀，並且隨著我們進入24 世紀及以後，它們將繼續下去，繼續推動我們在客戶想要的地方滿足他們的需求被滿足。

Our data would tell us in our focus groups that 1/3 of our customers are perfectly happy with a self-service model, but equally, we have another 1/3 who continue to want an in-store teammate who is going to help them with their storage needs and walk them through the process in a very personalized way. So our focus is on how do we capture all those customers at either extreme in the way that they want to be served and not just try to create kind of a one-stop one way of doing things because we don't think that will produce the right answer over the long term.

我們的數據告訴我們，在焦點小組中，1/3 的客戶對自助服務模式非常滿意，但同樣，我們還有 1/3 的客戶仍然需要店內隊友來幫助他們了解他們的存儲需求，並以非常個人化的方式引導他們完成整個過程。因此，我們的重點是如何以他們想要的服務方式捕捉所有處於任一極端的客戶，而不僅僅是嘗試創建一種一站式的做事方式，因為我們認為這不會產生從長遠來看，這是正確的答案。

The next question comes from Juan Sanabria from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Juan Sanabria。

Just hoping you could share your thoughts on kind of one big question that we kind of consistently get from investors with regard to the move-in, move-out spread and how that's been fairly negative and how that should not be a point of concern for an eventual recovery here. There's clearly a benefit from ECRIs that helps offset that negative new lease spread. But if you could share your thoughts and just general views on the offsets and why that isn't a point of concern longer term, I guess, for the business given the pricing pressure on new customers?

只是希望您能就我們一直從投資者那裡得到的一個大問題分享您的想法，涉及遷入、遷出價差以及這是如何相當負面的以及如何不應成為關注點在這裡最終康復。 ECRI 顯然有一個好處，可以幫助抵消新的負租賃利差。但是，如果您可以分享您的想法和對抵銷的一般看法，以及考慮到新客戶的定價壓力，我想為什麼這不是企業長期關注的問題？

I'll start. I mean I think part of it is that if we had our druthers, we'd much rather see that be positive. I think the reality is, is that we're still adjusting asking rates to pandemic levels and coming off of postpandemic levels. And then I think you compare those to prepandemic levels and overall rates look on a compounded growth rate basis, to be here in '23 and heading into '24, kind of where you would think they would have been had you asked us that question prepandemic.

我開始吧。我的意思是，我認為部分原因是，如果我們有自己的建議，我們寧願看到積極的一面。我認為現實情況是，我們仍在將要價調整到大流行水平並低於大流行後水平。然後我認為你將這些與大流行前的水平進行比較，總體增長率看起來是在複合增長率的基礎上，從23 年到24 年，如果你在大流行前問我們這個問題，你會認為它們會是這樣的情況。

That said, clearly, there are drivers that we've talked about for several quarters and others have talked about that the overall levels of demand due to the housing market are a little bit lower than you would normally expect them to be. So I don't know how to answer the question from the standpoint of is there a concern. Asking rate -- there's always a roll down. It's just the roll down today is a little bit greater than it typically is when comparing customers who are leaving the platform versus customers who are coming in.

也就是說，顯然，我們已經討論了幾個季度的驅動因素，而其他人也談到了房地產市場導致的整體需求水準略低於您通常的預期。所以我不知道如何從是否有擔憂的角度來回答這個問題。要價——總是會下降。只是在比較離開平台的客戶與進入平台的客戶時，今天的下滑幅度比平常大一些。

Can you give a sense of how the move-in rates are compared to last year for kind of the fourth quarter, the trend, did December end better? And how are January and February going? And maybe juxtapose that with move-in, move-out spreads?

您能否介紹一下第四季度的入住率與去年相比如何，趨勢，12 月結束時是否更好？一月和二月進度如何？也許將其與遷出價差並列？

Yes, if you're -- so if you think about rates to new customers, they were down in October, about 18% when we average out the quarter and kind of the exit, it was around 14%. And then here, the average for the first 2 months of the year expanded about 100 basis points, it's around 15% negative.

是的，如果你考慮新客戶的利率，他們在 10 月下降了約 18%，當我們對季度和退出類型進行平均時，約為 14%。今年前 2 個月的平均值擴大了約 100 個基點，負值約為 15%。

And how about the spreads for new customers? Is that -- it's steady or contracted at all or...

新客戶的點差怎麼樣？是－－它是穩定的還是收縮的還是…

Yes, stayed relatively steady, and it's about negative 34%.

是的，保持相對穩定，約為負 34%。

The next question comes from Michael Goldsmith at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

My question is on the same-store revenue guidance. Can you just talk a little bit about -- or what is assumed in the guidance in terms of the gap between the urban and more suburban markets and the trajectory through the year? It seems, right, like the New York market has clearly been outstanding relative to the rest of your markets. So I'm wondering how you're thinking about kind of like similar-ish urban markets and how the gap is positioned relative to some of the other markets that you have exposure to?

我的問題是關於同店收入指引。您能否簡單談談——或者指南中關於城市和郊區市場之間的差距以及全年發展軌蹟的假設？看起來，是的，紐約市場相對於其他市場來說顯然表現出色。所以我想知道您如何看待類似的城市市場以及相對於您接觸過的其他一些市場的差距是如何定位的？

Yes. I think consistent with some commentary to a previous question, our macro expectation is that those markets that rely less on housing change to drive demand will outperform over the course of the year the other markets that depend more on that customer. So it's going to vary across region and across the portfolio, again, also related to how 2023 played out. But overall, I think the markets that showed strength in the fourth quarter, we would expect to continue to show strength as we go throughout 2024. And I think some of the markets that had some greater weakness in the fourth quarter have bottomed out and will be better performing, albeit not as strong as the urban markets through '24 and the other markets somewhere in the middle.

是的。我認為與先前問題的一些評論一致，我們的宏觀預期是，那些較少依賴住房變化來推動需求的市場將在一年中跑贏其他更多依賴該客戶的市場。因此，不同地區和不同投資組合的情況也會有所不同，這也與 2023 年的情況有關。但總體而言，我認為在第四季度表現強勁的市場，我們預計在整個 2024 年將繼續表現強勁。而且我認為，一些在第四季度表現較為疲軟的市場已經觸底，並將繼續走強。表現較好，儘管不如24 年的城市市場和中間的其他市場強勁。

I appreciate that, Chris. And my follow-up is, last year, you had 70 properties under the same-store pool, and there's been a clear benefit with the gap between the 2023 and 2022 same-store pools. This year, you only have 6 same-store -- or 6 properties entering the same-store pool, but I was wondering how are you thinking about the new entrants in 2023 that had -- that drove a lot of outperformance this year? What is the expectation for 2024 as you kind of do your asset-by-asset buildup?

我很感激，克里斯。我的後續行動是，去年，同店池下有 70 個物業，2023 年和 2022 年同店池之間的差距有明顯的好處。今年，您只有 6 家同店，或者 6 家酒店進入同店池，但我想知道您如何看待 2023 年的新進入者，這些新進入者在今年推動了很多出色的表現？當您逐一進行資產建設時，您對 2024 年的期望是什麼？

So just to be clear, your question is the stores that entered the '23 pool, what is their continued contribution into '24. Is that the question?

因此，需要明確的是，您的問題是進入 '23 池的商店，他們對 '24 的持續貢獻是什麼。這是問題嗎？

Yes. Can they continue to sustain momentum? Are they still -- is there still upside? And are they still kind of underperforming kind of like the entire same-store pool?

是的。他們能否繼續保持勢頭？它們仍然存在嗎？還有上升空間嗎？它們是否仍然像整個同店池一樣表現不佳？

I think overall, they are performing a little bit better than the overall same-store pool, but it's a mix. So if you think about the Storage West portfolio, we have -- and that was the biggest chunk of the stores that were added this past year. Overall, for that portfolio, the San Diego and Las Vegas properties are performing really well. The stores in Phoenix, consistent with Chris' commentary earlier, Phoenix is one of the Sunbelt markets that has put a little bit more pressure due to housing and some supply issues there.

我認為總體而言，他們的表現比同店整體表現要好一些，但這是一個混合體。因此，如果您考慮 Storage West 產品組合，我們會發現，這是去年新增商店中最大的一部分。總體而言，對於該投資組合，聖地牙哥和拉斯維加斯的房產表現非常出色。鳳凰城的商店，與克里斯先前的評論一致，鳳凰城是陽光地帶市場之一，由於那裡的住房和一些供應問題，該市場施加了更大的壓力。

So overall, the contribution from those stores relative to the portfolio average, it's still a positive, but less positive in '24 than it was in '23. And then the 6 stores that are added this year are negligible. So they really don't have any impact.

因此，總體而言，這些商店相對於投資組合平均水準的貢獻仍然是正面的，但 24 年的正面程度不如 23 年。那麼今年新增的6家門市更是微不足道。所以它們確實沒有任何影響。

The next question comes from Keegan Carl at Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的基根·卡爾。

I know this one was touched on a little bit, but just curious, one for Tim, how are you kind of embedding your marketing expense growth in '24, just given -- as Chris alluded to, it's kind of market by market, but I would love to have more color there.

我知道這個問題被觸及了一點，但只是好奇，蒂姆，你是如何將你的營銷費用增長融入 24 年的，正如克里斯所提到的，這是一個逐個市場的市場，但是我希望那裡有更多的顏色。

How we're approaching it? Is that your question?

我們如何接近它？這是你的問題嗎？

Yes. I guess just what are your expectations for marketing expense growth? I know it's -- obviously it can be volatile, but just -- at least in your initial guidance where you have it set up.

是的。我想您對行銷費用成長的預期是多少？我知道它——顯然它可能會不穩定，但只是——至少在你設定它的最初指導中是這樣。

It certainly can be. At the midpoint of our expense guidance, it would assume that marketing expenses is plus or minus inflationary type expenses. We tend -- as you've seen in the past, we tend to be a little bit steadier on marketing spend relative to some others. We tend to press the pedal down a little bit when we see great returns on that spend, and we tend to pull it back a little bit when we don't. And so that can create some volatility from quarter-to-quarter. But overall, our expectation is that marketing expenses and that bucket of expenses that is more inflationary in nature, not like the ones that I mentioned in my preamble of taxes, insurance and snow.

當然可以。在我們費用指引的中點，假設行銷費用加上或減去通膨型費用。正如您過去所看到的，我們傾向於在行銷支出上相對於其他一些公司更加穩定。當我們看到這筆支出的巨大回報時，我們往往會稍微踩下踏板，而當我們看不到回報時，我們往往會稍微拉回踏板。因此，這可能會造成季度與季度之間的一些波動。但總體而言，我們的預期是行銷費用以及本質上更具通膨性的費用，而不是像我在稅收、保險和雪的序言中提到的。

Got it. And another one for you, Tim. Just kind of curious on snow removal. We're now in March. So just what would be driving concerns kind of the rest of the quarter here?

知道了。提姆，還有一份給你。只是對除雪有點好奇。我們現在是三月。那麼，到底是什麼會引發本季剩餘時間的擔憂呢？

The concerns are that it was virtually zero last year, and it can snow -- we're a little bit more heavily weighted to the Northeast markets than some others. And there are years that it snows in November and December, too. So we don't know what those are going to look like here in the fourth quarter of '24. It doesn't take a lot of snow events for it to add up.

令人擔憂的是，去年這個數字幾乎為零，而且可能會下雪——我們對東北市場的權重比其他一些市場要重一些。有些年份的十一月和十二月也會下雪。所以我們不知道 24 年第四季會是什麼樣子。不需要很多雪事件就能累積起來。

The next question comes from Spenser Allaway at Green Street.

下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 Spenser Allaway。

Maybe just shifting back to property taxes for a second. Do you have a sense of what percent of the portfolio is currently within tax abatement burn off? And if so, do you also have a sense of what the magnitude of the increase in property taxes that those properties would incur?

也許只是暫時回到財產稅上來。您是否了解目前投資組合中有多少百分比處於減稅燒毀狀態？如果是這樣，您是否也了解這些房產將產生的財產稅增加幅度是多少？

Sorry, the percent of stores that are -- could you just repeat that part of the question. I didn't quite...

抱歉，有多少商店是——你能重複問題的這一部分嗎？我不太...

Yes, no problem. The percent of the portfolio that would -- the percent of the portfolio that is currently within like a tax abatement burn off.

是沒有問題。投資組合的百分比－目前屬於減稅的投資組合的百分比會被燒掉。

Yes. So we have some stores in New York that are in that phase, but that's really the only place that we have it across the portfolio. So overall, it's a really small percentage as you think about it from the entirety of the portfolio.

是的。我們在紐約有一些商店正處於這個階段，但這確實是我們整個產品組合中唯一擁有它的地方。總的來說，從整個投資組合來看，它所佔的比例非常小。

Right. Yes. Of course, yes, small percentage. But -- and then do you guys -- are you guys -- do you have a sense of what like the magnitude of step-up in property taxes is going to be over the next several years?

正確的。是的。當然，是的，比例很小。但是，你們知道未來幾年財產稅的增加幅度嗎？

We do. I think we disclosed the impact that we saw from ICAP burn offs in our sup as we always do. I think that number -- I'm trying to pull it here, but I think it was $600,000, I believe, plus or minus for the fourth quarter. That number will continue to grow a little bit into '25 and '26 and then I think it level -- it largely levels off after that. So it has an impact. We have historically disclosed that impact, it's on Page 17 of the sup. And you can see in the fourth quarter, it was $678,000 was the impact of those ICAPs burning off -- I'm sorry, $678,000 for the whole year, not for quarter.

我們的確是。我認為我們一如既往地披露了我們在供應商中看到的 ICAP 燒毀的影響。我想這個數字——我試圖把它拉到這裡，但我認為它是 60 萬美元，我相信，第四季度的正負值。這個數字將在 25 年和 26 年繼續略有增長，然後我認為它將趨於平穩——此後基本上會趨於平穩。所以它是有影響的。我們歷史上曾披露過這種影響，它位於手冊第 17 頁。你可以看到，在第四季度，ICAP 燒毀的影響是 678,000 美元——抱歉，全年為 678,000 美元，而不是季度。

Yes, yes. No, of course. I was just trying to get a sense of what you guys might have been underwriting for what was coming down the pipe here in the next year or 2, but I appreciate the color.

是的是的。不，當然。我只是想了解一下你們可能會為明年或兩年內即將推出的產品承保什麼，但我很欣賞這種顏色。

The next question comes from Samir Khanal at Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Samir Khanal。

Chris, in your opening remark, I believe you just mentioned that operating trends have stabilized. I guess, maybe talk around -- maybe give a little bit more color on that comment as we try to assess your guidance here.

克里斯，在您的開場白中，我相信您剛才提到了經營趨勢已經穩定。我想，也許可以談談——也許在我們嘗試評估您的指導時，對該評論給予更多的色彩。

So in the context of 2023, where if you recall, every quarter, the volatility just seemed to be abnormal. If you think back, we had a relatively normal January of '23. And then February was fine, and then March was really bad. And then we seem to have another repeat in the second quarter, where June was pretty disappointing. September in the third quarter was pretty disappointing. The fourth quarter was the first quarter during last year, where kind of our expectation of seasonal trends met the reality. And then we saw that continue here into January and February.

因此，在 2023 年的背景下，如果你還記得的話，每季的波動似乎都是不正常的。如果你回想一下，23 年一月我們度過了相對正常的一月。然後二月還好，然後三月就很糟糕了。然後我們似乎在第二季再次重演，六月的表現相當令人失望。第三季的九月相當令人失望。第四季是去年第一季度，我們對季節性趨勢的預期與現實相符。然後我們看到這種情況一直持續到一月和二月。

We obviously have the benefit here on March 1 of knowing how those two months went and that gives us some confidence that we're off to a start that matches up with our expectations and guidance for the full year. All that being said, as you know, and I think I answered to a previous question, you get into the latter part of this month and certainly into April, May and the beginning of June and that's where the assumptions that Tim laid out at kind of both ends of the spectrum are going to start to materialize, and we'll have obviously a lot more information, just nature of the business, as you know, from a seasonal perspective.

顯然，我們在 3 月 1 日這裡受益匪淺，因為我們知道這兩個月的進展情況，這讓我們有信心，我們的開局符合我們對全年的預期和指導。話雖如此，正如您所知，我想我回答了之前的問題，您將進入本月下旬，當然也將進入四月、五月和六月初，這就是蒂姆提出的假設的所在頻譜兩端的變化都將開始實現，我們顯然會獲得更多信息，如您所知，從季節性角度來看，只是業務的性質。

Got it. And I guess, just -- I wanted to ask you on occupancy and your thoughts on that. I mean if you go back to 2019, you're about 100 basis points below. So just curious on your thoughts as to how to think about occupancy through the year. Have we sort of leveled off on occupancy? Or do you think there's further sort of movement downward here in this year?

知道了。我想，只是 - 我想問您有關入住率的問題以及您對此的看法。我的意思是，如果你回到 2019 年，你會發現匯率大約低了 100 個基點。所以只是想知道您對如何考慮全年入住率的想法。我們的入住率是否已趨於平穩？或者您認為今年會有進一步的下降趨勢嗎？

Yes. I think our kind of midpoint expectation is we generally bounce around where we are today. So there's a modest level of occupancy improvement as we get later into the year at kind of the midpoint. At the more conservative end, that doesn't materialize. And at the better end, we, obviously, as Tim said, we see a better mobility market for us in the busy season, and then that translates into some stronger occupancy.

是的。我認為我們的中點預期是我們通常會在今天的位置附近反彈。因此，當我們進入今年稍後的中點時，入住率會出現適度的改善。從更保守的角度來看，這並沒有實現。從更好的角度來看，顯然，正如蒂姆所說，我們在繁忙的季節看到了更好的流動市場，然後這轉化為更強勁的入住率。

But clearly, the experience in '23 is we just didn't see a whole cohort of customers that we expected to get going into the busy rental season, and then that trickles through the balance of the year, both from an occupancy and a REIT perspective. Supply, as Tim said, I think is a bit of our friend. It continues to come down, again, market-by-market. There are parts of the country that are going to continue to experience a little bit of pain from the supply there. I think North Jersey is probably the one that fits into that.

但顯然，23 年的經驗是，我們沒有看到我們預計會進入繁忙租賃季節的一大群客戶，然後在今年的剩餘時間裡，無論是入住還是房地產投資信託基金，這些客戶都在慢慢流失看法。正如蒂姆所說，供應是我們的朋友。它繼續逐個市場地下降。該國部分地區將繼續遭受供應帶來的一些痛苦。我認為北澤西可能適合這一點。

And then there are markets like Phoenix, where I think all the supply that came in got certainly hidden by the tremendous surge in demand from COVID. And then as things have stabilized out, I think you're just going to naturally have a kind of a lower market occupancy for a time until -- again, until that population growth backfills in that supply.

還有像鳳凰城這樣的市場，我認為所有進來的供應肯定都被新冠疫情帶來的需求激增所掩蓋。然後，隨著情況穩定下來，我認為在一段時間內，市場佔有率自然會降低，直到人口成長回補供應。

Got it. Got it. And just one last one, if I may. I think you touched on ECRIs, but I don't know if you gave the magnitude. I mean what are those increases look like today? Maybe compare them to last year at this point.

知道了。知道了。如果可以的話，就只有最後一件事。我認為您提到了 ECRI，但我不知道您是否給出了規模。我的意思是，今天的成長情況如何？也許現在可以將它們與去年進行比較。

Yes. If you think about last year, again, we kind of came down in '22 and '23 from those kind of 20% type increases on average that we saw at peak COVID. They've been basically, right, averaging around 15% here for some time. And again, our kind of expectations as we go through 2024 is the cadence and magnitude will be pretty consistent at the midpoint. I think, again, in a more bullish scenario, with better mobility, we would think we could maybe extract a little bit more out of that.

是的。如果你再回想去年，我們在 22 年和 23 年的情況有所下降，而在新冠疫情高峰期，平均增幅為 20%。一段時間以來，他們的平均得分基本上一直在 15% 左右。再說一次，我們對 2024 年的預期是，節奏和幅度在中點將非常一致。我再次認為，在更樂觀的情況下，隨著流動性的提高，我們可能會從中獲得更多收益。

The next question comes from Eric Luebchow at Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Eric Luebchow。

You touched a little bit on the M&A environment. You said the bid-ask spread remains pretty wide. I think you talked about it being around 15% or so toward the end of last year. So maybe you could update us on that. And I guess, given where your current cost of capital is, is there kind of a way to think about which cap rate ranges may be attractive for you to start to do more transactions that fit your investment criteria?

您稍微談到了併購環境。您說買賣價差仍然相當大。我想你在去年年底時談到了這一比例約為 15% 左右。也許您可以向我們通報最新情況。我想，考慮到您目前的資本成本，是否有一種方法可以考慮哪些資本化率範圍可能對您有吸引力，以便開始進行更多符合您投資標準的交易？

Eric, so you're recollection is good. We saw -- through the bulk of 2023, we felt like we were generally about 20% disconnected. And then last quarter, we talked about that narrowing a bit, maybe into the 15% off the mark. And now I would say it's probably closer to 10%. So we're getting closer.

艾瑞克，所以你的記憶力很好。我們發現，在 2023 年的大部分時間裡，我們感覺到大約有 20% 的人與網路脫節。然後上個季度，我們談到了這一點的縮小，可能會縮小 15%。現在我想說可能接近 10%。所以我們越來越近了。

And again, from looking at it from our cost of capital for the right opportunity, we're looking -- generally speaking, we're looking for something in the 6 cap or better range. And so we're starting to find a couple of those opportunities on attractive properties that fit our criteria and what we're looking for are returns that make sense to us, but it's a trickle at this point. We're ready for it to be more of a trickle when it starts to open up.

再說一次，從我們的資本成本來看，我們正在尋找合適的機會，一般來說，我們正在尋找 6 上限或更好的東西。因此，我們開始在符合我們標準的有吸引力的房產上尋找一些機會，我們正在尋找對我們有意義的回報，但目前只是涓涓細流。當它開始開放時，我們已經準備好讓它更像是涓涓細流。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then just one more for me. As you think about capital allocation, if it remains a trickle and you don't see a lot of acquisition opportunities, I guess, at one point -- at what point would you consider other forms of capital return like potentially repurchasing shares, which I know haven't been a big part of your plan historically. But given where your leverage is today, you, obviously, have a lot of room to bring leverage higher for other forms of capital return.

好的。我很感激。然後再給我一個。當你考慮資本配置時，如果它仍然是涓涓細流，並且你看不到很多收購機會，我想，在某個時候——你會在什麼時候考慮其他形式的資本回報，例如潛在的回購股票，我認為知道歷史上這並不是你計劃的重要組成部分。但考慮到你現在的槓桿水平，顯然，你有很大的空間來提高其他形式資本回報的槓桿率。

No doubt. Great question. As we think about it, our #1 objective is to -- is if we had the alternative, would be to continue to grow and expand in the markets that we want to be in with assets of that quality. If those opportunities aren't there, we tend to double down on our focus on internal opportunities for redevelopments and potentially some developments if they penciled out.

毫無疑問。很好的問題。正如我們所思考的那樣，我們的第一個目標是——如果我們有其他選擇，我們將繼續在我們希望進入的市場中以這種品質的資產實現成長和擴張。如果沒有這些機會，我們往往會加倍關注內部重建機會，以及可能的一些發展（如果它們被取消）。

But at some point, if that is disconnected and we continue to just delever and delever and delever as we have been and there is also a disconnect in the value of our shares versus private market valuations, of course, we have that tool to consider, share repurchases. And at some point, the disconnect is big enough and the time period is long enough, then that is certainly something that we would consider.

但在某些時候，如果這種情況脫節，我們繼續像以前那樣去槓桿化、去槓桿化、去槓桿化，而且我們的股票價值與私人市場估值也存在脫節，當然，我們有這個工具可以考慮，股票回購。在某些時候，脫節足夠大，時間段足夠長，那麼這當然是我們會考慮的事情。

Next question comes from Mike Mueller at JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

Two quick ones here. One, just a clarification. I just want to make sure we're using the same terminology. When -- during the guidance discussion, when you talked about rate parity, hopefully in the fall, you're talking about new move-in rates that you're getting then on a year-over-year basis compared to those new move-in rates from last year. Is that correct?

這裡有兩個快速的。一，只是澄清一下。我只是想確保我們使用相同的術語。當——在指導討論期間，當你談論費率平價時，希望是在秋季，你談論的是與那些新搬入相比，你在逐年基礎上獲得的新搬入費率——從去年的費率來看。那是對的嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. And then second, on the expense side, do you have any visibility as to when, I guess, insurance growth will moderate? You talked about it being 47%. I think a 20% expectation after you kind of hit the mid-May or whatever the date was this year. But do you think it stays outsized in terms of growth for the foreseeable future? Or do you see a notable drop off in the next year or so?

好的。其次，在費用方面，您是否知道保險成長何​​時會放緩？你說的是 47%。我認為在 5 月中旬或今年的任何日期之後，預期會達到 20%。但您認為在可預見的未來，它的成長規模是否仍然龐大？或者您認為明年左右會出現顯著下降嗎？

Yes. Mike, it's Chris. I think that -- I wish I had that crystal ball. That would be awesome. I think there are so many variables, right? One is mother nature. One is the investment returns that the insurers are achieving and another is the entry or exit of capital into the property and casualty insurance space, particularly from the reinsurers.

是的。麥克，是克里斯。我想——我希望我有那個水晶球。那將是真棒。我想，這其中的變數實在太多了，對吧？一是大自然。一是保險公司正在實現的投資回報，二是資本進入或退出財產和意外保險領域，特別是來自再保險公司的資本。

And I just think we're kind of in a period where we have maybe a little bit less competition, maybe some concern about how they're matching up their assets and liabilities from a return perspective. And then we've had some events that haven't impacted our sector, but certainly have impacted commercial real estate from mother nature perspective.

我只是認為我們正處於一個競爭可能較少的時期，也許有人擔心他們如何從回報的角度匹配資產和負債。然後我們發生了一些事件，雖然沒有影響我們的行業，但從大自然的角度來看肯定影響了商業房地產。

So I think we're maybe a little bit optimistic based on what we hear that a moderating trend over the next couple of years is feasible. But honestly, that's one of those things that really is kind of dependent upon both the time of your renewal, ours is in May, and then what's going on with those other things outside of our control.

因此，我認為，根據我們所聽到的未來幾年放緩趨勢是可行的消息，我們可能有點樂觀。但老實說，這確實取決於您續訂的時間（我們的是五月），以及我們無法控制的其他事情的情況。

Got it. So you find out when you find out. Okay. That's helpful.

知道了。所以當你發現的時候你會發現。好的。這很有幫助。

And the next question comes from Todd Thomas at KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Todd Thomas。

Sorry about that, it's been a long earnings season. I'll try this again. Chris, just wanted to, I guess, follow up first on Samir's question. And I'm wondering, as you look back, whether you have any sense why operating trends were volatile like you discussed during much of '23, whether it was maybe related to pricing strategies that you're employing, customer demand, competitor pricing, if there's any light that you can really shed on that in retrospect.

抱歉，這是一個漫長的財報季。我會再嘗試。我想克里斯只是想先跟進薩米爾的問題。我想知道，當你回顧過去時，你是否明白為什麼經營趨勢會像你在23 年的大部分時間裡討論的那樣波動，這是否可能與你採用的定價策略、客戶需求、競爭對手的定價有關，回想起來，你是否能真正闡明這一點。

Yes. I think when we look back, I think you have a whole bunch of factors. You really kind of named most of them. I think we had a -- we had weather. So I think, to some degree, you had some instances in some of those months that I rattled off as sort of oddly poor, where you just had maybe a deferral of demand in those months. And then for those customers who still had the need, perhaps they showed up in the month following.

是的。我想當我們回顧過去時，我認為有很多因素。你確實說出了其中大部分的名字。我想我們有一個——我們有天氣。因此，我認為，在某種程度上，在某些月份中，有一些情況我滔滔不絕地描述為有點奇怪，在這些月份中，您可能只是推遲了需求。然後對於那些仍然有需求的客戶，也許他們會在下個月出現。

I think we had that really odd situation in the resale of existing single-family homes where you just saw historical low activity. And I think that was an impact. I think you saw other impacts on the housing side in terms of folks willing to relocate from an apartment perspective, given how pricing was moving there.

我認為我們在現有單戶住宅的轉售中遇到了非常奇怪的情況，你剛剛看到了歷史上的低活躍度。我認為這是一種影響。我認為考慮到價格的變化，您還看到了住房方面的其他影響，即人們願意從公寓的角度搬遷。

I think competitor pricing certainly came into play to some degree on that. You had weird macro events, right? Not sure that the banking crisis or other things from a geopolitical perspective, ultimately really impact the storage customer, but to some degree, perhaps they do a little bit in terms of mobility. So a lot of anecdotal, hard to pinpoint to one item. It was just certainly, from my experience doing this for 30 years, it was a very unusual year.

我認為競爭對手的定價肯定在某種程度上發揮了作用。你經歷過奇怪的宏觀事件，對吧？不確定銀行危機或其他從地緣政治角度來看的事情最終是否會真正影響儲存客戶，但在某種程度上，也許他們在行動性方面做了一些工作。如此多的軼事，很難準確指出其中一項。可以肯定的是，從我 30 年從事此行業的經驗來看，這是非常不尋常的一年。

Okay. In terms of competitor pricing, have you seen that become a little bit more, I guess, either predictable or just even out a little bit more?

好的。就競爭對手的定價而言，我想，您是否發現價格變得更加可預測，或者只是更均衡？

Yes, I'm not sure I could say that it's become any more predictable. Again, week-by-week in some markets with some of the stores that we compete with, it's become a little bit more constructive and then we have other markets where quite the opposite is true. So it continues to be a very interesting competitive environment out there.

是的，我不確定我是否可以說它變得更加可預測。同樣，在一些與我們競爭的商店的市場中，一周又一周，它變得更具建設性，然後我們在其他市場上情況恰恰相反。因此，這仍然是一個非常有趣的競爭環境。

Okay. And then in terms of investments, it doesn't sound like you're seeing a lot, but some recent activity you acquired in Northern New Jersey and a couple in Connecticut. As you look ahead to the extent the transaction environment loosens up a little bit, I'm just curious how you think about deploying capital between the urban markets and the Sunbelt and whether there's a preference or not as you think about investments moving forward.

好的。然後就投資而言，聽起來您並沒有看到很多，但您最近在新澤西州北部和康涅狄格州進行了一些活動。當您展望交易環境稍微放鬆的程度時，我只是好奇您如何考慮在城市市場和陽光地帶之間部署資本，以及您在考慮未來的投資時是否有偏好。

We have a pretty wide view, Todd, across all of the -- all of our target markets. There's really no -- preference in the short term is to focus energy on some of the top 40 versus other of the top 40. You're really looking for opportunities that present themselves. We wish we could bring people to market exactly where we want them to be. But the reality is, you're evaluating the opportunities that present themselves, and you don't.

托德，我們對所有目標市場都有相當廣闊的視野。確實沒有——短期內的偏好是將精力集中在前 40 名中的一些公司，而不是前 40 名中的其他公司。你確實在尋找自我展示的機會。我們希望能夠將人們準確地帶到我們希望他們去的地方。但現實是，你正在評估出現的機會，但你卻沒有。

There's not enough out there that you could really target to say, I want to focus on these 5 MSAs at the exclusion of the others. We're pretty wide open across the spectrum of the markets that we're interested in for high-quality assets, still interested across the gamut of very low occupied lease-up type opportunities versus stabilized opportunities so long as on a risk-adjusted basis, they make sense to us and are complementary to our strategy.

沒有足夠的東西可以讓您真正有針對性地說，我想專注於這 5 個 MSA，而排除其他的。我們對優質資產感興趣的各個市場都持開放態度，只要在風險調整的基礎上，我們仍然對佔用率極低的租賃類型機會與穩定機會感興趣，它們對我們有意義並且與我們的戰略相輔相成。

Okay. Tim, does the $100 million to $200 million assumption that's in guidance -- you mentioned that guidance does not include any unannounced acquisitions, maybe $100 million to $200 million doesn't really move the needle much, I guess, depending on the yields. But does the guidance actually include that assumption? Or is that just sort of a range around acquisition activity that you think is reasonable for the year?

好的。提姆，指導中的1 億至2 億美元假設是否存在？您提到指導不包括任何未宣布的收購，我想，根據收益率，也許1 億至2 億美元並不會真正帶來太大影響。但該指南實際上包含了這個假設嗎？還是這只是您認為今年合理的收購活動範圍？

Yes. Our FFO guidance does not include the impact of that $100 million to $200 million. It's more of what you described. It's an indication to try to give you a feel for where we think we can transact as we sit here today. But frankly, zero visibility into opportunities that would add up to that amount other than what we've disclosed.

是的。我們的 FFO 指引不包括這 1 億至 2 億美元的影響。更符合你所描述的情況。這是一個跡象，旨在讓您了解我們今天坐在這裡可以進行哪些交易。但坦白說，除了我們所揭露的以外，對加起來達到這筆金額的機會的可見度為零。

It just feels like it's a year that is not going to be -- it's not going to be 2021. It feels like that's pretty much a certainty. But it does feel like we're getting a little bit more constructive when we underwrite opportunities. Again, as you mentioned, we found a couple of opportunities. Those were relationship-driven, one of our third-party management platform, one with a seller that we've transacted with in the past. So those are -- I won't say they're completely insider opportunities, but not marketed opportunities.

只是感覺這不會是——不會是 2021 年。感覺這幾乎是確定的。但當我們承保機會時，我們確實感覺變得更有建設性了。正如您所提到的，我們再次發現了一些機會。這些是關係驅動的，我們的第三方管理平台之一，與我們過去有交易的賣家合作。所以這些——我不會說它們完全是內部機會，但不是行銷機會。

So you do think that there likely is a pent-up group of sellers who are looking for liquidity at some point, have been patiently waiting for that opportunity. And if we have a year from a transaction market that looks like cap rates aren't moving, you would think that at some point, there is a recognition from the seller side of the table to say, if I need liquidity, this is the market that I find myself in, so I'm going to transact. And if that happens, we could see some opportunities in that gap that we have seen that has been contracting. Perhaps that contracts a little bit further. And we find things in -- with return levels that make sense from our perspective.

因此，您確實認為可能有一群被壓抑的賣家在某個時候正在尋找流動性，一直在耐心等待這個機會。如果我們有一年的交易市場看起來資本化率沒有變化，你會認為在某個時候，賣方會認識到，如果我需要流動性，這就是我發現自己所處的市場，所以我要進行交易。如果這種情況發生，我們可能會在已經縮小的差距中看到一些機會。也許這會進一步收縮。我們發現，從我們的角度來看，回報水準是有意義的。

And we've -- I would think sitting here today that my best guess is that we could find 1, 2 property small portfolios that would add up to that $100 million to $200 million, but they're not in FFO, they would be incremental to that. One way or the other, I mean, if we found some compelling lease up opportunities they would be a bit of a drag in the short term on our FFO number in '24.

我們——我認為今天坐在這裡，我最好的猜測是，我們可以找到 1、2 個小型房地產投資組合，加起來可達 1 億至 2 億美元，但它們不在 FFO 中，而是在對此進行增量。無論如何，我的意思是，如果我們發現一些令人信服的租賃機會，它們在短期內會對我們 24 年的 FFO 數量產生一定的拖累。

Thank you. We have no further questions. I will turn the call back over for closing comments.

謝謝。我們沒有其他問題了。我將把電話轉回以徵求結束意見。

Thank you all for participating in our call. We will see some of you, I assume, next week and safe travels. And we look forward to sharing with you our first quarter results in a couple of months. Have a great weekend.

感謝大家參與我們的電話會議。我想，我們會在下週見到你們中的一些人並安全地旅行。我們期待在幾個月後與您分享我們第一季的業績。週末愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。