CSX Corporation (CSX) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth-quarter 2016 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2016 年第四季財報電話會議。提醒各位，今天的電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

For opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Vice President, Treasurer, and Investor Relations Officer for CSX Corporation.

接下來進行開場致詞與介紹，我想把電話交給 CSX Corporation 副總裁、財務主管兼投資人關係長 David Baggs 先生。

Thank you, Shirley, and good morning again, everyone, and welcome to CSX Corporation's fourth-quarter 2016 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we'll be reviewing this morning, along with our expanded quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our website at CSX.com under the investors section. In addition, following the presentation, the webcast replay will be available on that same website.

謝謝你，Shirley，也再次向各位道早安，歡迎參加 CSX Corporation 2016 年第四季財報簡報。我們今天早上將檢視的簡報資料，以及我們擴充版的季度財務報告與安全及服務衡量指標，皆可在 CSX.com 網站投資人專區取得。此外，簡報結束後，網路直播重播也將在同一網站提供。

This morning, our presentation will be led by Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Frank Lonegro, our Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Cindy Sanborn, our Chief Operating Officer, and Fredrik Eliasson, our Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, will be available during the question-and-answer session.

今天早上的簡報將由公司董事長兼執行長 Michael Ward，以及財務長 Frank Lonegro 主講。此外，營運長 Cindy Sanborn 與銷售暨行銷長 Fredrik Eliasson 將在問答環節中出席。

Now before I turn the presentation over to Michael, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide 2. This disclosure identifies forward-looking statements as well as the uncertainties and risks that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

在我把簡報交給 Michael 之前，先提醒各位，本簡報及公司所作的其他陳述包含前瞻性陳述。建議各位查閱隨附簡報第 2 頁的公司揭露內容。該揭露說明了前瞻性陳述，以及可能導致實際表現與這些陳述所預期結果出現重大差異的不確定性與風險。

In addition, at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With over 30 analysts covering CSX, and out of respect for everyone's time, including our investors, I would ask as a courtesy for you to please limit your inquiries to one question and one follow-up question.

另外，在簡報結束時，我們將與研究分析師進行問答環節。由於有超過 30 位分析師追蹤 CSX，且為尊重包含投資人在內的各位時間，敬請各位每次提問以一個問題及一個追問為限，謝謝。

And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

那麼，接下來我把簡報交給 CSX Corporation 董事長兼執行長 Michael Ward。Michael？

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Yesterday, CSX reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.49, up from $0.48 per share in the same period last year. You'll note the fourth quarter of 2016 included two offsetting items.

謝謝你，David。各位早安。昨天，CSX 公布第四季每股盈餘為 0.49 美元，高於去年同期的每股 0.48 美元。各位會注意到，2016 年第四季包含兩項互相抵銷的項目。

In addition, the quarter included an extra accounting week resulting from the Company's 52-/53-week fiscal reporting calendar. This benefited EPS by $0.03 in the quarter.

此外，由於公司採用 52/53 週的會計年度報導日曆，本季多了一個會計週。這使本季 EPS 增加 0.03 美元。

On a reported basis, revenue increased 9% in the quarter, driven by the benefit of an extra accounting week and strong pricing gains that reflect the value of our service product. Turning to operations, safety performance remains strong, service levels continue to meet or exceed customer expectations, and the Company drove nearly $100 million of efficiency gains in the quarter. As a result, CSX produced $1 billion of operating income and a 67% operating ratio. Both of these results reflect the benefit of the extra week and a gain on a recent operating property sale.

以公告口徑計算，本季營收成長 9%，主要受惠於額外的會計週，以及反映我們服務產品價值的強勁定價提升。就營運而言，安全表現依然強勁，服務水準持續符合或超越客戶期望，公司本季推動近 1 億美元的效率提升。因此，CSX 創造了 10 億美元的營業利益與 67% 的營業比率。這兩項結果皆反映了額外一週的效益，以及近期出售一項營運用不動產所帶來的收益。

Now I'll turn the presentation over to Frank who will take us through the fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results in more detail, as well as providing our initial views on the outlook for 2017. Frank?

接下來我把簡報交給 Frank，他將更詳細說明第四季與 2016 全年的結果，並提供我們對 2017 年展望的初步看法。Frank？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Revenue was up 9%, or $256 million, versus the prior year, driven primarily by higher volumes as a result of the extra week. Total reported volume increased 5% in the quarter, but declined 1%, excluding the extra week.

謝謝你，Michael，各位早安。營收年增 9%，或 2.56 億美元，主要由於額外一週帶來的運量增加所致。本季總公告運量增加 5%，但若排除額外一週，則下降 1%。

We continue to deliver strong core pricing from an improved service product. Same-store sales pricing for the fourth quarter was up 2.8% overall and 3.2% excluding coal. In addition, fuel recoveries declined $10 million in the fourth quarter, but were more than offset by a $13 million increase in other revenue.

我們持續透過改善後的服務產品，帶來強勁的核心定價。第四季同店銷售定價整體上升 2.8%，排除煤炭後上升 3.2%。此外，第四季燃油回收收入減少 1,000 萬美元，但被其他收入增加 1,300 萬美元所抵銷且有餘。

Expenses increased 2% versus the prior year, driven mainly by the impact of the extra week. Excluding the extra week, expense declined 4%.

費用較去年增加 2%，主要受額外一週的影響。若排除額外一週，費用下降 4%。

In the fourth quarter, CSX delivered $98 million of efficiency gains and we also recognized a $115 million gain from the sale of an operating property. Further year-over-year expense details can be found in our quarterly financial report.

第四季，CSX 實現 9,800 萬美元的效率提升，並且我們也認列出售一項營運用不動產所帶來的 1.15 億美元收益。更多年度同比費用細節可參閱我們的季度財務報告。

Operating income was just over $1 billion in the fourth quarter. Looking below the line, interest expense was up slightly from last year, reflecting the impact of the extra week. Other income decreased $72 million, driven primarily by an $80 million gain related to a non-operating property sale in the prior year's fourth quarter. In addition, we incurred $115 million of debt repurchase expense in the fourth quarter, associated with the call of $1.4 billion of debt that was maturing between 2017 and 2019.

第四季營業利益略高於 10 億美元。在營業利益以下項目方面，利息費用較去年略增，反映額外一週的影響。其他收入減少 7,200 萬美元，主要因去年第四季有一筆與出售非營運用不動產相關的 8,000 萬美元收益。此外，我們在第四季發生 1.15 億美元的債務回購費用，係與提前贖回 14 億美元、原本將於 2017 至 2019 年到期的債務相關。

Finally, income taxes were $293 million in the fourth quarter with an effective tax rate of about 39%. This included a $10 million unfavorable adjustment related to the apportionment of state income taxes, which impacted EPS, by $0.01.

最後，第四季所得稅為 2.93 億美元，有效稅率約 39%。其中包含一筆與州所得稅分攤相關的 1,000 萬美元不利調整，使 EPS 受到 0.01 美元的影響。

Overall, net earnings were $458 million, down 2% versus the prior year, and EPS was $0.49 per share, up 2% versus the prior year. Now let me provide an adjusted view of our full-year EPS.

整體而言，淨利為 4.58 億美元，較去年下降 2%，而 EPS 為每股 0.49 美元，較去年上升 2%。接下來我提供我們全年 EPS 的調整後觀點。

Beginning with our full-year GAAP EPS of $1.81, we have provided the EPS impact of certain items that all occurred in the fourth quarter. You can see that the $0.08 property gain I mentioned previously was equally offset by the $0.08 impact from the debt repurchase expense in the fourth quarter. In addition, our 2016 EPS benefited $0.03 from the impact of the extra week.

從全年 GAAP EPS 1.81 美元開始，我們提供了若干項目對 EPS 的影響，而這些項目皆發生在第四季。各位可以看到，我先前提到的 0.08 美元不動產收益，已被第四季債務回購費用對 EPS 的 0.08 美元影響等額抵銷。此外，2016 年 EPS 也因額外一週而受惠 0.03 美元。

Excluding the impact of the extra week and the two offsetting items, CSX's 2016 non-GAAP EPS is $1.78, which reflects a more normalized base for year-over-year comparisons. Now let me turn to the market outlook for the first quarter.

排除額外一週以及兩項互相抵銷的項目影響後，CSX 2016 年非 GAAP EPS 為 1.78 美元，這提供了更常態化的基礎以進行年度同比比較。接下來我談第一季的市場展望。

We expect volume to be flat to slightly up year over year in the first quarter as the industrial economy is stabilizing and energy-related headwinds are moderating slightly. That said, a number of our markets are returning to year-over-year growth in the quarter as we cycle the challenging conditions of early 2016.

我們預期第一季運量年比將持平至小幅成長，因工業經濟正在趨於穩定，且能源相關逆風略有緩和。即便如此，隨著我們度過 2016 年初的艱困環境，本季我們多個市場將回到年度同比成長。

As you can see on the slide, nearly 80% of volume falls in the neutral or favorable category in the first quarter, while a little over 20% of the portfolio is expected to be unfavorable. Agriculture and food is expected to grow as the record grain harvest and new customer facilities are expected to more than offset the strength in the US dollar and the strong South American crop, which curtails the US grain exports season earlier than normal.

如投影片所示，第一季近 80% 的運量落在中性或有利類別，而投資組合中略高於 20% 預期將是不利。農業與食品預期將成長，因創紀錄的穀物收成與新客戶設施的貢獻，預期將足以抵銷美元走強與南美作物豐收的影響；後者會使美國穀物出口季較往常更早結束。

Export coal will continue to benefit from China's production cuts, driving increased demand for US coal. In particular, the metallurgical benchmark has strengthened year over year, attracting increased production from US coal producers entering 2017. We expect export tonnage in the quarter to be about 8 million tons. For the full year 2017 we expect export coal to be in the mid to high 20 million ton range.

出口煤炭將持續受惠於中國減產，帶動對美國煤炭的需求增加。特別是冶金煤基準價格較去年走強，吸引美國煤炭生產商在進入 2017 年時提高產量。我們預期本季出口噸數約為 800 萬噸。就 2017 全年而言，我們預期出口煤炭將落在 2,000 多萬噸中段至高段的區間。

Metals and equipment is favorable as imports moderate compared to last year and domestic steel production increases following successful trade cases. Additional infrastructure projects, increasing rig counts, and wind energy moves are expected to provide additional volume opportunity. Intermodal is expected to be neutral.

金屬與設備業務表現有利，因為相較去年進口趨於溫和，且在成功的貿易案件之後，國內鋼鐵產量增加。預期新增的基礎建設專案、鑽機數量增加，以及風能相關動向，將帶來額外的運量機會。預期聯運業務將持平。

On the domestic side secular growth will continue, spurred by new service offerings and our highway-to-rail program. However, this growth is mostly offset by a domestic competitive loss that occurred mid last year.

在國內方面，受新服務方案以及我們的「公路轉鐵路」計畫帶動，長期結構性成長將持續。然而，這項成長多數被去年年中發生的一次國內競爭性流失所抵銷。

On the international side, volumes are also expected to be roughly flat as we just finished cycling prior-year competitive losses earlier this month. Chemicals will be down as the economics of crude by rail remain unfavorable. These headwinds are partially offset by higher volume in the fly ash business, which began moving a year ago and ramped up over several quarters to current levels.

在國際方面，由於我們本月稍早剛完成對前一年競爭性流失的比較基期循環，預期運量也將大致持平。化學品將下滑，因為原油鐵路運輸的經濟性仍不具吸引力。這些逆風部分被粉煤灰業務較高的運量所抵銷；該業務於一年前開始運輸，並在數個季度逐步爬升至目前水準。

Domestic coal is also expected to be down. Although we are seeing moderating inventory levels and slightly increased coal demand with winter weather, a short-haul competitive loss will result in lower volume for the quarter. As a result, we expect domestic coal tonnage to be around 15 million to 16 million tons for the first quarter.

國內煤炭也預期將下滑。儘管我們看到庫存水位趨於溫和，且冬季天候帶動煤炭需求略有增加，但一項短程運輸的競爭性流失將導致本季運量降低。因此，我們預期第一季國內煤炭噸數約為1,500萬至1,600萬噸。

Overall, the industrial economy is more stable and energy headwinds are moderating. However, we continue to face a strong US dollar and low commodity prices which constrains growth in some markets.

整體而言，工業景氣更為穩定，能源相關逆風正在緩和。然而，我們仍面臨強勢美元與低商品價格，這限制了部分市場的成長。

As we think about the full year 2017, we anticipate a healthier volume environment. As a result, we expect a combination of merchandise and intermodal to grow on a comparable 52-week basis in line with the economy. In addition, excluding the short-haul competitive loss of about 6 million tons, we expect domestic coal tonnage to be roughly flat to 2016.

展望2017全年，我們預期運量環境將更為健康。因此，我們預期在可比的52週基礎上，商品運輸與聯運的合計將隨經濟同步成長。此外，若排除約600萬噸的短程運輸競爭性流失，我們預期國內煤炭噸數相較2016年大致持平。

Turning to the next slide, let me talk about our expectations for expenses in the quarter. As a result of aggressive cost actions taken in 2016, we achieved nearly $430 million of efficiency savings and about $175 million of volume-related cost savings. As we turn to 2017, our intense focus on driving cost reductions across the Company is unchanged and we are targeting full-year efficiency savings of more than $150 million.

接著看下一張投影片，我來談談本季費用的預期。由於2016年採取積極的成本行動，我們達成近4.30億美元的效率節省，以及約1.75億美元的運量相關成本節省。進入2017年，我們對於推動全公司成本降低的高度聚焦不變，並以全年效率節省超過1.50億美元為目標。

Looking at the first-quarter outlook for labor and fringe, we expect average headcount to be down slightly on a sequential basis. Labor inflation is expected to be around $35 million in the first quarter.

就第一季人力與附加福利的展望而言，我們預期平均人數將較前一季略為下降。第一季的人力通膨預期約為3,500萬美元。

In addition, we expect our pension expense to decrease about $15 million versus the prior year in each quarter of 2017. This reduction is driven primarily by adopting the spot rate accounting methodology for applying the discount rate, as well as the benefit associated with a $250 million pension contribution completed in the fourth quarter. The combination of efficiency savings and lower pension costs is expected to more than offset labor inflation.

此外，我們預期2017年每一季的退休金費用將較前一年各季減少約1,500萬美元。此一降低主要來自採用即期利率（spot rate）會計方法來套用折現率，以及第四季完成2.50億美元退休金提撥所帶來的效益。效率節省與較低的退休金成本合計，預期將足以抵銷人力通膨。

For MS&O expense, we expect efficiency gains in the quarter to help offset inflation. However, we will also be cycling some positive reserve adjustments. For example, improved safety performance in last year's first quarter favorably reduced personal injury reserves. As a result, we expect MS&O in total to be slightly up versus the prior year.

就MS&O費用而言，我們預期本季的效率提升將有助於抵銷通膨。然而，我們也將進入一些先前有利的準備金調整之比較基期循環。例如，去年第一季安全表現改善，有利於降低人身傷害準備金。因此，我們預期MS&O總額將較前一年略為增加。

We expect fuel expense to increase in the first quarter driven by the higher cost per gallon year over year, reflecting the current forward curve. This price increase is partially offset by our continued focus on fuel efficiency. We expect depreciation in the first quarter to increase around $10 million versus the prior year, reflecting the ongoing investment in the business. This is partially offset by the favorable impact of an equipment life study.

我們預期第一季燃料費用將增加，主因為每加侖成本年增，反映目前的遠期曲線。此一價格上升部分被我們持續聚焦燃油效率所抵銷。我們預期第一季折舊費用將較前一年增加約1,000萬美元，反映對業務的持續投資。此一增加部分被設備使用年限研究帶來的有利影響所抵銷。

Finally, equipment and other rents in the first quarter are expected to be relatively flat to the prior year with the benefit of improved car cycle times offsetting higher freight car rates and the increase in volume-related costs associated with automotive growth. Now let me talk about our capital investment plan for 2017.

最後，第一季設備及其他租金預期相較前一年大致持平；車輛周轉時間改善的效益，將抵銷較高的貨車租賃費率，以及與汽車業務成長相關的運量成本增加。接下來我來談談我們2017年的資本投資計畫。

For this year, CSX's total capital investment will decrease to $2.2 billion, which includes about $270 million for Positive Train Control. As you will recall, our 2016 capital investment total $2.7 billion, which included $307 million of payments in 2016 for locomotives purchased under seller financing and delivered in 2015. As a result, we expect our 2017 capital investment to decline nearly $500 million from the 2016 level and begin returning to our long-term core capital investment guidance of around 16% to 17% of revenue.

今年，CSX的資本投資總額將降至22億美元，其中包含約2.70億美元用於正向列車控制（PTC）。如各位所記得，我們2016年的資本投資總額為27億美元，其中包含2016年支付的3.07億美元款項，係針對在賣方融資安排下購買、並於2015年交付的機車。因此，我們預期2017年資本投資將較2016年水準下降近5.00億美元，並開始回到我們長期核心資本投資指引，即約占營收的16%至17%。

Looking at our capital allocation for 2017, you can see that over half of the investment will still be used to maintain infrastructure to help ensure a safe and reliable network. In addition, our 2017 equipment investment is down significantly from the prior year, due to the completion of our locomotive purchase commitment. A major shift in our 2017 capital plan from last year is the significant increase in strategic investments which support improved service, long-term growth and efficiency initiatives under the CSX of Tomorrow strategy.

檢視我們2017年的資本配置，可以看到超過一半的投資仍將用於維護基礎設施，以協助確保安全且可靠的網路。此外，由於我們的機車採購承諾已完成，2017年的設備投資較前一年大幅下降。相較去年，我們2017年資本計畫的一項重大轉變，是策略性投資顯著增加；這些投資在「CSX of Tomorrow」策略下，支持服務改善、長期成長與效率倡議。

Finally, looking at our investment in Positive Train Control, we have invested $1.8 billion through the end of 2016, and we plan to invest about $270 million in 2017. CSX is on track to meet the legislative timeline for PTC. As we look at the path to achieving this goal, we now believe the total cost of PTC implementation will be about $2.4 billion before any third-party recoveries.

最後，關於我們在正向列車控制（PTC）上的投資，截至2016年底我們已投資18億美元，並計畫於2017年再投資約2.70億美元。CSX正按計畫符合PTC的立法時程。在達成此目標的路徑上，我們目前認為PTC導入的總成本在扣除任何第三方回收之前，約為24億美元。

Now let me wrap up on the next slide. Overall, CSX has delivered solid financial performance in 2016 despite a dynamic freight environment that impacted nearly every market. This success was driven by pricing for the relative value of our service, driving record, efficiency gains, and aligning resources to the softer demand environment, which partially offset the 5% decline in total volume.

接下來在下一張投影片做個總結。整體而言，儘管多變的貨運環境幾乎影響每一個市場，CSX在2016年仍交出穩健的財務表現。此一成果來自依據我們服務的相對價值進行定價、推動創紀錄表現、效率提升，以及將資源與較疲弱的需求環境對齊，從而部分抵銷總運量下滑5%的影響。

To mitigate the soft demand, we took significant actions, resulting in efficiency savings of nearly $430 million and rightsizing savings of about $175 million. Primarily as a result of these actions, CSX was able to improve its full-year operating ratio by 30 basis points to 69.4%.

為了緩解疲弱需求，我們採取了重大行動，帶來近4.30億美元的效率節省，以及約1.75億美元的規模調整（rightsizing）節省。主要因為這些行動，CSX得以將全年營運比率改善30個基點至69.4%。

Looking ahead, while we still face some specific market challenges from the strong US dollar and low commodity prices, we expect overall conditions for the freight environment to be healthier in 2017. As a result, we expect the combination of merchandise and intermodal to grow in 2017 on a comparable 52-week basis, in line with the economy.

展望未來，雖然強勢美元與低商品價格仍帶來一些特定市場挑戰，但我們預期2017年整體貨運環境的狀況將更為健康。因此，我們預期在可比的52週基礎上，商品運輸與聯運的合計將於2017年隨經濟同步成長。

As I mentioned previously, domestic coal tonnage is expected to decline again in 2017 on a comparable basis, primarily due to a short-haul competitive loss. Excluding this 6 million ton loss, we expect domestic coal tonnage to be roughly flat, despite low natural gas prices that continue to challenge the competitiveness of eastern utility coal. We continue to see favorable near-term market conditions for export coal and expect mid to high 20 million tons for this year.

如我先前提到，按可比基礎計算，2017年國內煤炭噸數預期將再次下滑，主要原因是一項短程運輸的競爭性流失。若排除這600萬噸的流失，儘管低天然氣價格持續挑戰東部公用事業煤的競爭力，我們仍預期國內煤炭噸數大致持平。我們持續看到出口煤炭短期市場條件有利，並預期今年出口煤炭噸數為2,000多萬噸的中高段水準。

We remain intensely focused on delivering a service product that meets or exceeds our customers' expectations, achieving strong pricing to support reinvestment in the business and driving efficiencies across our entire cost structure. Again, we are targeting productivity savings of more than $150 million in 2017.

我們仍高度專注於提供符合或超越客戶期望的服務產品，取得強勁定價以支持對業務的再投資，並在整體成本結構上推動效率提升。同樣地，我們2017年的生產力節省目標仍為超過1.50億美元。

With CSX's continued focus on strong pricing and cost control, coupled with a stabilizing industrial economy and more moderate energy declines, we currently expect EPS growth in the low to mid teens for the first quarter. For the full year, we also expect overall EPS growth in 2017. Of course, growth will be stronger in the first half as we cycle our two more challenging quarters from 2016, but we will keep you informed on a quarterly basis as we progress through the year.

隨著 CSX 持續專注於強勁的定價與成本控制，再加上工業經濟趨於穩定以及能源下滑幅度更為溫和，我們目前預期第一季 EPS 成長將落在低至中十位數百分比。就全年而言，我們也預期 2017 年整體 EPS 將成長。當然，隨著我們在 2017 年上半年對照（cycle）2016 年兩個較具挑戰性的季度，成長會更為強勁；但我們會在全年推進過程中按季度向各位更新。

Finally, we are reducing our capital investment by nearly $500 million to $2.2 billion. In combination with the higher earnings, CSX will also improve overall free cash flow in 2017 for shareholders.

最後，我們將資本投資削減近 5 億美元至 22 億美元。結合更高的獲利，CSX 也將在 2017 年為股東提升整體自由現金流。

With that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael for his closing remarks.

接下來，讓我把簡報交回給 Michael，請他做結語。

Thank you, Frank. In the year where the industry faced sustained low commodity prices and a strong US dollar that had broad-based market impacts, CSX lost another $470 million in coal revenue and experienced declines in nearly every other market. Faced with these challenging business conditions, the Company generated strong financial results driven by decisive actions to produce an all-time record of nearly $430 million of efficiency gains. Our performance underscores this team's ability to rapidly adapt to changing economic conditions and the restructuring of the energy markets.

謝謝你，Frank。在這一年，產業面臨大宗商品價格長期低迷以及強勢美元對市場造成廣泛影響，CSX 的煤炭營收再減少 4.7 億美元，且幾乎所有其他市場都出現下滑。在這些嚴峻的經營環境下，公司透過果斷行動，創造接近 4.3 億美元、史上最高紀錄的效率提升，帶動強勁的財務成果。我們的表現凸顯這個團隊能夠快速因應經濟情勢變化，以及能源市場重整。

Looking forward, the CSX of Tomorrow strategy drives growth in the more service sensitive merchandise and intermodal businesses. We will achieve this by emphasizing reliable and cost-effective service, realigning our far-reaching network, and deploying additional technology solutions to further improve safety, efficiency, and service.

展望未來，「CSX of Tomorrow」策略將推動在更重視服務的貨運（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）業務上的成長。我們將透過強調可靠且具成本效益的服務、重新調整我們廣泛的網路，並部署更多科技解決方案，以進一步提升安全、效率與服務來達成。

In addition, the more favorable economic conditions overall and the prospects for more balanced regulation, coupled with the quality of our network, our team, and our strategy, lead us to expect full-year earnings-per-share growth in 2017 despite the overhang of the strong dollar and low global commodity prices. Longer term, as we continue the Company's transformation, we remain committed to achieving a mid-60%s operating ratio.

此外，整體更有利的經濟環境與更為均衡的監管前景，再加上我們網路、團隊與策略的品質，使我們預期儘管強勢美元與全球大宗商品價格偏低仍構成壓力，2017 年全年每股盈餘仍將成長。長期而言，隨著我們持續推動公司的轉型，我們仍致力於達成 60% 中段的營業比率（operating ratio）。

And with that, we'll be pleased to take your questions.

接下來，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Christian Wetherbee, Citigroup.

(接線員指示) Citigroup 的 Christian Wetherbee。

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Wanted to see if you could talk a little bit more about the 2017 volume outlook.

嗨，謝謝。各位早安。想請你們再多談一點 2017 年的運量展望。

Frank, I know you mentioned I think merchandise and intermodal growth in line with the broader economy and you've talked a lot about coal, so that's helpful. But could you give us some sense about how you're looking at the broader economy and maybe what are some of the puts and takes as you think about that merchandise and intermodal business for the full year of 2017?

Frank，我知道你提到我想是貨運與聯運的成長會與整體經濟一致，而且你也談了很多煤炭，所以這很有幫助。但你能否讓我們了解一下你們如何看待整體經濟，以及在思考 2017 年全年貨運與聯運業務時，有哪些利多與利空因素（puts and takes）？

Sure. This is Fredrik. I would say that if we look at our merchandise business, we feel pretty good now across the board in terms of being able to produce growth across essentially all of those markets and, as I said, in line with overall economy.

當然。我是 Fredrik。我會說，如果我們看貨運（merchandise）業務，我們現在對整體各面向都相當有信心，基本上能在幾乎所有這些市場實現成長，而且如我所說，會與整體經濟一致。

We've seen the economy obviously go through a pretty tough time here on the industrial side in 2016, but as we move into 2017, I think we see a little bit -- obviously, easier comps but also a little bit of momentum here. And so we feel good about what we see on the merchandise side.

我們看到 2016 年工業端的經濟顯然經歷了一段相當艱困的時期，但進入 2017 年後，我認為我們看到一些——顯然比較容易的比較基期（easier comps），同時也有一些動能。因此，我們對貨運端所看到的情況感到樂觀。

In the national side, on the intermodal side, we are done cycling some of the losses that impacted us in 2016 and that will be helpful. And then on the domestic side, we continue to see the vibrancy that we've seen over the last decade or so of being able to grow that market well above whatever the economy produces.

在全國性（national）方面、就聯運端而言，我們已經走過（cycle）部分在 2016 年影響我們的損失，這會有所幫助。而在國內（domestic）方面，我們持續看到過去十年左右一直存在的活力，也就是能讓該市場的成長遠高於整體經濟所帶來的增幅。

So if you add those pieces up, I do think on the merchandise intermodal side that we will be able to grow in line with whatever the economy is going to produce. And, hopefully, if we get a little bit of this tailwind that we're feeling right now to continue, maybe even a little bit better than that. But we'll see where we end up and we'll keep you informed throughout the year.

所以把這些因素加總起來，我確實認為在貨運與聯運方面，我們將能夠與經濟所帶來的成長幅度一致地成長。而且希望如果我們目前感受到的這股順風能持續，甚至可能略優於此。但我們會看看最後結果如何，並在全年持續向各位更新。

Okay. Okay, that's helpful; I appreciate it. And then just wanted to touch on the 2017 outlook for the operating ratio. Great movement on efficiency savings in 2016; you have a target for 150-plus for 2017.

好的。好的，這很有幫助；謝謝。接著想談一下 2017 年營業比率（operating ratio）的展望。2016 年效率節省的改善幅度很大；你們對 2017 年的目標是 1.5 億美元以上。

How do we think about that in terms of the operating ratio? How much progress do you think you might be able to make this year?

就營業比率而言，我們該如何看待這件事？你認為今年大概能取得多少進展？

Hey, Christian; it's Frank. We should be able to make good progress there. The challenge that we're going to have, obviously, is when you look at the numbers that we have on a reported basis, there are things in there, obviously, that need to be pulled out in order for us to really look at it on a comparable basis. You saw a two-year run sub 70%, but each of those years had something in there that helped on the operating ratio side.

嗨，Christian；我是 Frank。我們應該能在這方面取得不錯的進展。當然，我們面臨的挑戰是：當你看我們以報表口徑（reported basis）呈現的數字時，裡面有一些項目顯然需要剔除，才能讓我們真正以可比基礎來看。你看到連續兩年低於 70%，但每一年都有一些因素在營業比率方面提供了幫助。

We're doing everything we can on the operating ratio, certainly on the cost side. You're going to hear from Cindy that she'll do everything she can to pull productivity. Fredrik is going to continue to rely on that improved service product to drive pricing from the top-line side.

我們在營業比率上會盡一切努力，尤其是在成本端。你會聽到 Cindy 說她會盡其所能拉動生產力。Fredrik 會持續依靠改善後的服務產品，從營收端推動定價。

You see an improving volume environment, and so with less coal declines, that certainly sets us up for a positive 2017. How much progress we make, obviously, we'll give you some transparency as we get through the first quarter and get a full read on how long coal is going to help us.

你看到運量環境正在改善，因此隨著煤炭下滑幅度變小，這確實讓我們為 2017 年的正向表現做好準備。至於我們能取得多少進展，顯然在我們走過第一季、並完整掌握煤炭能在多大程度上幫助我們之後，我們會提供一些透明度。

But is the sub 70% OR sort of the target for this year?

但低於 70% 的 OR（營業比率）算是今年的目標嗎？

Well, we haven't really given any OR guidance; it certainly isn't lost on us that we'd like to go three years in a row with it and get it on, I'd say, a more core basis. Obviously, there's been help the last two years. And so it's certainly something that we have our eyes set on.

嗯，我們其實沒有提供任何 OR 指引；但我們也很清楚，我們希望能連續第三年做到，並且我會說，以更核心（core）的基礎來達成。顯然，過去兩年都有一些助力。所以這確實是我們關注的重點。

Okay. Thanks for the time, guys, this morning. Appreciate it.

好的。謝謝各位今天早上的時間。感謝。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS.

UBS 的 Tom Wadewitz。

Good morning. I apologize for any background noise here; I'm in the midst of some travel. But wanted to see if you could comment on the driver of the labor cost savings that ramped up nicely; I think it was $76 million fourth quarter versus $53 million in third.

早安。如果有任何背景噪音我先致歉；我正在旅途中。不過想請你們評論一下勞動成本節省的驅動因素，這部分提升得很不錯；我記得第四季是 7,600 萬美元，第三季是 5,300 萬美元。

And so, as that -- your total productivity savings for 2017 is quite a bit lower than the big number you achieved in 2016, but the labor is ramping sequentially. So what -- could that labor savings continue to ramp or how do you think about that? And maybe if you can relate that to additions of sightings and longer trains. Thank you.

因此，當——你們 2017 年的總生產力節省金額，明顯低於 2016 年達成的那個很大的數字，但勞動力節省卻呈現逐季攀升。所以——這個勞動力節省是否可能持續攀升？或你們如何看待這件事？另外，如果可以的話，能否把這與會車點（sightings）的增加以及更長的列車做一些連結說明。謝謝。

Sure, this is Cindy. In terms of labor savings, you referenced the fourth quarter specifically, we did see some benefit in the volume that we did not have to add headcount back one for one and we expect to see that type of impact in a volume-increasing environment.

當然，我是 Cindy。就勞動力節省而言，你特別提到第四季，我們確實看到一些運量帶來的好處，也就是我們不必按一比一的方式把人力編制加回來；而我們預期在運量增加的環境下，會看到這類影響。

So what we've seen the past six quarters or so is volume going down and we've rightsized a number of expenses, specifically with headcount as one of them, to reduce expense. But we've also taken out expense and headcount associated with structural changes that we've -- that you heard us talk about as well.

因此，我們在過去大約六個季度所看到的是運量下滑，而我們已經對多項費用進行了適度縮編（rightsized），其中之一是人力編制，以降低費用。但我們也同時削減了與結構性變革相關的費用與人力編制——這些你們也聽到我們談過。

So you think about the structural changes going forward, you referenced the sighting capacity and, as we've talked about that in the past, we have to make some investments to continue to drive train length. And that is true. We expect to invest in 2017 and 2018 to drive that. We should see some benefits of that in 2018 that you will actually see in headcount from structural change on train length.

所以談到未來的結構性變革，你提到了會車（sighting）能力；如同我們過去談過的，我們必須進行一些投資，才能持續推動列車編組長度的提升。而這確實如此。我們預期在2017年與2018年投入資本以推動這件事。我們應該會在2018年看到其中一些效益，並且你將會在與列車長度相關的結構性變革所帶來的人力編制上實際看到反映。

Now having said that, we're always looking for opportunities to improve our expense control, whether it's headcount, whether it's fuel, in other areas, and we'll continue to do that. Certainly within mind of protecting service for our customers at the same time.

話雖如此，我們一直在尋找改善費用控管的機會，不論是人力編制、燃料或其他領域，我們都會持續推進。當然，同時也會以保護（維持）對客戶的服務為前提。

Okay, great. And one for Fredrik. I think certainly you can see how the benchmark export coal prices, [clean blend] or the API 2 in Europe, have gone up. Can you frame for us a bit the magnitude of the benefit on your pricing for export coal in fourth quarter? I don't know if it's how much percentage-wise it went up or revenue or any kind of broad frame.

好的，很棒。另外一題給Fredrik。我想你當然也看到基準出口煤價，[clean blend] 或歐洲的API 2，已經上漲。你能否幫我們說明一下，第四季你們出口煤定價所獲得的效益幅度？我不確定是以百分比上升多少、或營收、或任何較概括的框架來說明。

And then do you think that will be a similar impact in first quarter or a stronger benefit in first quarter on the export coal pricing? Thank you.

另外，你認為第一季在出口煤定價上的影響會類似，還是第一季的效益會更強？謝謝。

Sure, Tom. First of all, we really don't forecast price. Now, I think you know that since 2012 when we saw the peak of the market, it has been coming down. We've been pretty public about the fact that we both obviously want to continue to optimize the bottom line for us, but also strategically do what we can in partnership with the producers to stay -- keep them in business in a very difficult time, which we've obviously gone through.

當然可以，Tom。首先，我們其實不做價格預測。我想你也知道，自2012年我們看到市場高峰以來，價格一路走低。我們也相當公開地表示，我們一方面當然希望持續為我們優化獲利（bottom line），但另一方面也會在與生產商的合作夥伴關係下，策略性地盡我們所能讓他們在非常艱困的時期仍能——維持營運（stay in business），而那段艱困時期我們顯然也一起走過。

Now, clearly the market has come back here a lot faster than a lot of people have thought and certainly we expect the same sort of partnership on the way up as we saw on the way down. There are other factors that come into play than just the index themselves. There is the spread between different types of quality of coal. There is also the fact that while the benchmark has gone up significantly first quarter, the spot market is a very different place.

現在，顯然市場回升的速度比很多人預期的快得多，而我們也確實期待在上行時能看到與下行時相同類型的合作夥伴關係。除了指數本身之外，還有其他因素會影響。例如不同煤種品質之間的價差（spread）。另外還有一點是，雖然第一季的基準價格大幅上漲，但現貨市場（spot market）又是完全不同的情況。

So there's a variety of things that comes into play. But, overall, that partnership that I think we've established over the last few years we certainly expect it to go both ways.

所以會有各種因素共同作用。但整體而言，我認為我們在過去幾年建立起來的那種合作夥伴關係，我們當然期待它是雙向的。

So you think there's more sequential benefit in first quarter or similar, or you just don't care to comment on that?

所以你認為第一季會有更大的環比效益，還是差不多？或者你不方便評論？

I don't -- we don't forecast price, but I think we've given you the philosophy of how we look at things and I think that's pretty much all the visibility we can give you.

我不——我們不做價格預測，但我想我們已經說明了我們看待事情的理念，而我想這大概就是我們能提供的全部能見度了。

Right, okay. Thank you for the time. Appreciate it.

了解，好。謝謝你撥冗。很感謝。

Allison Landry, Credit Suisse.

Allison Landry，瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）。

Good morning. This is Danny Schuster on for Allison. Thanks for taking our question.

早安。我是Danny Schuster，代Allison發問。謝謝你們回答我們的問題。

We were hoping to dig in a little bit more on CapEx. So, Frank, you mentioned today that the strategic investments are stepping up a little bit this year and I know over the last decade or so you've spend around 10% to 15% of your CapEx on commercial facilities. So could you just provide us with a little bit more color on what's in the strategic investment bucket and whether we should expect this level of investment in that bucket to be sustained over the next few years?

我們希望再更深入一點談談資本支出（CapEx）。所以，Frank，你今天提到策略性投資今年會略為增加；而我也知道在過去十年左右，你們大約將10%到15%的資本支出用在商業設施上。你能否再多提供一些細節，說明策略性投資這個項目（bucket）裡包含哪些內容，以及我們是否應預期未來幾年這個項目的投資水準會維持？

Sure. I think to answer the last part of your question around sustained investment in the strategic at roughly the percent that you're seeing in 2017 over the next planning horizon, I think the answer to that is, yes, that is very much aligned with our CSX of Tomorrow strategy. As part of that, there is certainly investments in intermodal facilities.

當然。我想先回答你問題的最後一部分：在接下來的規劃期間內，策略性投資是否會大致維持在你們在2017年看到的那個比例水準；我認為答案是會的，這與我們的「CSX of Tomorrow」策略高度一致。其中當然包含對聯運（intermodal）設施的投資。

You've already heard us talk about Pittsburgh; that will complete about halfway through this year, and then you've also heard us talk about the Central Carolina connector, the big hub that we're going to do outside of Rocky Mount, to serve the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. So you'll see us continue to invest in facilities like that to expand the terminal footprint and be able to expand the existing terminal footprint to be able to handle the increase in domestic business -- the domestic intermodal business that we believe is a big part of the growth story for us longer term.

你們已經聽我們談過匹茲堡；該案將在今年年中左右完成；你們也聽我們談過Central Carolina connector，也就是我們將在Rocky Mount外圍建置的大型樞紐，用以服務中大西洋地區與美國東南部。因此，你會看到我們持續投資這類設施，以擴大場站（terminal）版圖，並擴充既有場站的規模，以因應我們認為將成為我們長期成長故事重要一環的國內業務——國內聯運業務——的增加。

Great, thank you.

很好，謝謝。

The other things I ought to add in there, Danny, is when you think about what's in the CSX of Tomorrow investments that you're seeing in the increase to, say, 25%-ish of the portfolio is also all of the network investments and the technology investments that we're looking to make to support train length and fluidity and long-term growth as well as efficiency and better service for our customers.

Danny，我還要補充的是，當你思考你在「CSX of Tomorrow」投資中所看到的提升——例如投資組合中占比提高到約25%左右——其中也包含我們為了支援列車長度、運行順暢度（fluidity）與長期成長，以及效率提升與為客戶提供更好服務，而計畫進行的各項路網投資與科技投資。

Okay, okay. That makes a lot of sense. And then we were just hoping -- would you be able to provide us with a little bit more color on the buckets of the efficiency that you're targeting this year? Is there a rough split you could provide us between what you expect in labor and fringe, MS&O, and fuel?

好的，好的。這很合理。另外我們也希望——你是否能再多提供一些細節，說明你們今年鎖定的效率提升會落在哪些項目（buckets）？你能否大致拆分一下，你們預期在人力與附帶福利（labor and fringe）、MS&O，以及燃料之間各自的貢獻？

I think -- Cindy and I will tag team this one. I think what you'll find is that, generally speaking, the productivity will follow the relative allocation in our cost bucket. Probably more so on the labor side, which is roughly 50%-ish of our cost base, and then fuel and MS&O will be important, but lesser parts of that.

我想——Cindy和我會一起回答這題。我想你會發現，一般而言，生產力提升會跟隨我們成本項目的相對配置。可能在人力端會更明顯一些，因為人力約占我們成本基礎的50%左右；接著燃料與MS&O也很重要，但占比相對較小。

And then really it's an across-the-board approach on cost. It's certainly -- given the size of the operating costs that we have, a lot of that falls on Cindy's shoulders, but the G&A side also pulls its weight in offsetting inflation every year as well. Cindy?

而且這其實是全方位的成本管理作法。當然——考量我們營運成本的規模，其中很大一部分落在Cindy的職責範圍，但一般管理費用（G&A）端也同樣會發揮作用，每年一起抵銷通膨。Cindy？

Yes, I would say Frank summed it up. There's no one area specifically that you're going to see outsized productivity; it's going to be across the board.

是的，我會說Frank已經總結得很完整了。不會有某一個特定領域出現特別突出的生產力提升；會是全面性的。

Okay, great; that's helpful. Thank you very much.

好的，很棒；這很有幫助。非常謝謝。

Amit Mehrotra, Deutsche Bank.

Amit Mehrotra，德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）。

Great. Good morning, thanks for taking the question. So I had a question on mix and margins.

很好。早安，謝謝讓我提問。我有一個關於組合（mix）與利潤率（margins）的问题。

Over the last couple years, it's clear that the mix of the business has changed pretty dramatically and you and the rest of the industry have adjusted remarkably well to that. But maybe as we enter a relatively more stable mix environment, maybe see some potential disproportionate growth on intermodal, just wondering how this impacts contribution margins. Could we see structurally higher incrementals in that environment, given the progress you guys have made on the productivity and pricing front?

過去幾年，很明顯業務組合已經相當大幅度地改變，而你們以及產業其他公司也對此做出了非常出色的調整。但或許當我們進入一個相對更穩定的組合環境，並可能看到聯運出現某種程度的相對更快成長時，我想了解這會如何影響貢獻毛利率（contribution margins）。鑑於你們在生產力與定價方面取得的進展，在那樣的環境下，我們是否可能看到結構性更高的增量利潤率（incrementals）？

Just help us think about the moving parts there, maybe in a more stable and a controlled environment volume environment. Thanks.

請協助我們思考其中的各個變動因素，或許是在一個更穩定、且更可控的量能環境下。謝謝。

Let me hit the incremental piece and then Fredrik will hit the volume piece. Clearly, when business comes back in the scheduled network, whether that's intermodal or what we call classed merchandise traffic, that's set up well given all the productivity efforts that Cindy and her team have done, as well as the pricing efforts that Fredrik and his team have done. So what you're seeing is a good set-up for incremental margins in those growth areas.

我先談增量的部分，接著 Fredrik 會談量的部分。很明顯地，當業務回到排程式網路中，不論是聯運（intermodal）或我們所稱的編組零擔貨運（classed merchandise traffic），在 Cindy 與她的團隊所做的各項生產力提升努力，以及 Fredrik 與他團隊所做的定價努力之下，我們都已經做好了很好的準備。因此你看到的是，在這些成長領域具備良好的增量利潤率布局。

When things come back in more of the bulk network, things that move in unit train quantities, then we're going to add costs in order to handle that business.

當業務更多回到散裝網路，也就是以整列（unit train）數量運輸的貨種時，為了處理這些業務，我們將需要增加成本。

Yes, and similar to what Cindy says in terms of never done, I think we're never done trying to grow the bottom line, whether that's through price, volume, or helping Cindy drive productivity gains. I do think that as you look forward the next couple of years -- and hopefully you are right that we'll have a more stable environment, especially if you refer to coal. But I do think also that the growth opportunity that we're seeing, a lot of that is in domestic intermodal and it's going to probably be at a higher rate or higher volume growth than you would see in some of the other markets.

是的，而且就像 Cindy 提到的「永遠做不完」，我認為我們也永遠不會停止努力提升獲利，不論是透過價格、運量，或協助 Cindy 推動生產力提升。我確實認為，展望未來幾年——也希望你說得對，我們會有更穩定的環境，尤其是你提到煤炭時。但我也認為，我們看到的成長機會中，很大一部分在國內聯運，而且其成長率或運量成長可能會高於你在其他市場看到的水準。

So you will have continued mix impact on the top line, but it doesn't necessarily always translate into a bad thing from a bottom-line perspective, because a lot of that growth is going to come into the fixed network where we do have a fair amount of opportunities also to drive train length. We have the double-stacked clearance that we just -- obviously, we didn't have in the tunnel; a fair amount of automation products as well. So while there is a revenue negative mix, so to speak, it doesn't necessarily mean that it's a negative mix from a bottom line.

因此營收端會持續受到組合（mix）影響，但從獲利端來看，這不一定總是壞事，因為那樣的成長多半會進入我們的固定網路（fixed network），而我們在那裡也有相當多機會去拉長列車長度。我們也具備雙層堆疊（double-stacked）通行淨空——顯然以前隧道那裡沒有；另外也有不少自動化產品。所以即便從營收角度來說是所謂的負向組合，但不一定代表從獲利角度也是負向組合。

If I can just follow-up quickly on that, it looks like, in the fourth quarter at least, the incremental EBIT margin was around 38%. But that did include some higher stock comp expense, maybe $30 million or so, above what you were originally predicting.

如果我可以很快追問一下，至少在第四季，增量 EBIT 利潤率大約是 38%。但其中包含了一些較高的股票薪酬費用，可能比你們原先預估高出約 3,000 萬美元。

So if you adjust for that, it looks like on an operating basis maybe it was closer to 50%. Would that be kind of the conversion you would expect on any revenue growth, at least in 2017 in the midterm around that 50% level?

所以如果把那部分調整掉，看起來以營運基礎來看可能更接近 50%。這會是你們對任何營收成長所預期的轉換率嗎——至少在 2017 年的中期大概在 50% 左右？

I think you are normalizing the fourth quarter in the way that we are as well when we're answering your question about incremental margins in the fourth quarter. Obviously, you didn't see the flow-through that you would otherwise have looked for, but I think there were some discrete parts in there that once you back those out, then you're in the right neighborhood.

我認為你對第四季的常態化調整方式，和我們在回答你關於第四季增量利潤率問題時所做的方式一致。顯然，你沒有看到原本可能期待的流入（flow-through），但我認為其中有一些一次性/離散項目；把那些剔除後，你就會落在正確的區間。

Okay. Let me ask one quick one, if I could, on taxes. I know it's probably a hard question to answer, but obviously this has the potential I guess to be a significant positive to the bottom line. You can't answer, obviously, what's going to happen, but if you do get some tailwind on the corporate tax rate, how do you think this plays out?

好的。如果可以的話，我再快速問一個關於稅務的問題。我知道這可能很難回答，但顯然這可能對獲利端帶來相當大的正面影響。你當然無法回答最後會發生什麼，但如果公司稅率確實帶來一些順風，你認為會如何發展？

Do you think it gets competed away? How much (inaudible) do you think the keys to the Company? And then I think you have a pretty sizable deferred tax liability that would, I would imagine, get revalued down.

你認為會被競爭消化掉嗎？你認為（聽不清）在多大程度上會把公司的主導權交出去？另外我想你們有相當可觀的遞延所得稅負債，我猜應該會被重新評價下調。

And so just trying to understand if you would change any capital allocation decisions given the leverage would look probably better, at least on a book capital basis. Thank you.

所以我想了解的是，若槓桿看起來可能會更好——至少以帳面資本的角度——你們是否會改變任何資本配置決策。謝謝。

Sure. In the tax proposals, obviously there are going to be moving parts in terms of what is the ultimate rate that applies to corporations, as well as how bonus depreciation is going to be handled, as well as the expensing of interest. So if you just blow all of that through the model and think through what does that imply from a cash flow perspective, it's certainly positive from a free cash flow perspective.

當然。在稅改提案中，顯然有很多變動因素，包括最終適用於企業的稅率是多少、加速折舊（bonus depreciation）將如何處理，以及利息費用的費用化/扣除（expensing of interest）如何處理。因此如果把這些都放進模型裡推演，從現金流角度來看意味著什麼，從自由現金流的角度確實是正面的。

We would have to revalue the deferred tax liabilities, but that would be more of a one-time hit as we reset the EPS number based on that revaluation. In terms of use of cash, obviously, we would continue to apply our balanced approach to capital deployment. We would look hard at capital investments that might be able to be pulled forward and certainly we would look at the shareholder return aspects of dividends and buybacks as well.

我們必須重新評價遞延所得稅負債，但那會更像是一次性的影響，因為我們會基於該重新評價來重設 EPS 數字。在現金使用方面，顯然我們會持續採取平衡的資本部署方式。我們會仔細評估是否有些資本投資可以提前進行，當然也會考量股東回饋，包括股利與庫藏股回購。

Okay. All right, thanks for taking my questions; appreciate it.

好的。好，謝謝你回答我的問題；很感謝。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker，摩根士丹利。

Thanks. Morning, everyone. So question on merchandise intermodal pricing; that remains above 3% but has been decelerating a bit for the last few quarters. When do you expect an inflection there? Do you need those markets to come back strongly or do you expect that to react to inflation?

謝謝。各位早安。我想問商品與聯運（merchandise intermodal）的定價；目前仍高於 3%，但過去幾季似乎有些放緩。你們預期何時會出現拐點？你們需要那些市場強勁回升，還是預期它會對通膨做出反應？

Also, if you can share your inflation expectations for 2017, that would be great.

另外，如果你們能分享對 2017 年通膨的預期，那就太好了。

Sure. I'll just remind again, we really don't forecast pricing. Obviously it has been a tough period -- an extended period now -- from a pricing perspective and a lot of excess capacity out there. Our challenge to our team is, of course, to sell through this trough, make sure we sell the improved service product that we have, the unparalleled network access that we have to provide innovative solutions to our customers.

當然。我再提醒一次，我們其實不做定價預測。顯然從定價角度來看，這段期間一直很艱難——而且已經持續一段時間——市場上也有很多過剩產能。我們對團隊的挑戰當然是要在這個谷底中把貨賣出去，確保我們能把已改善的服務產品賣出去，並運用我們無可比擬的網路可達性，為客戶提供創新解決方案。

And I think the fact that we've been able to do as well as we have I think is a good testament to both the fact that it is a value driver of ours and it is also a good testament to the fact that we really do need to make sure to continue to value price to be able to reinvest in the business the way we want to. And so it has been a sequential down tick. We'll see when it turns.

我認為我們能做到目前的表現，是很好的證明：一方面這確實是我們的價值驅動因素；另一方面也證明我們必須確保持續維持價格價值（value price），才能以我們希望的方式再投資於業務。因此確實出現了連續性的下滑。至於何時反轉，我們再觀察。

I think there is a lot of good things going on. If the economy picks up, I think it's a good thing. If we continue to see low unemployment, that puts pressure on the wages; we know that.

我認為有很多正面的事情正在發生。如果經濟回溫，我認為是好事。如果我們持續看到低失業率，這會對薪資造成壓力；我們知道這點。

We see the ELD mandate coming into play here as we get into the second half of 2017. So I think things are lining up for a better pricing environment as we move through the second half of 2017, but it might not fully be where we want it to be until we get to 2018.

我們也看到 ELD（電子行車紀錄器）強制規定將在 2017 年下半年開始發揮作用。所以我認為，隨著 2017 年下半年推進，各項因素正在對更好的定價環境形成支撐，但可能要到 2018 年才會完全達到我們想要的程度。

Ravi, on your inflation question, I think in the prepared remarks you heard the $35 million inflation on labor and fringe and there are some pretty key industry drivers as part of that. It's not really on the wage side of things; it's on the health and welfare side.

Ravi，關於你問的通膨，我想你在事先準備的講稿中聽到勞動與附加福利（fringe）有 3,500 萬美元的通膨，其中有一些相當關鍵的產業驅動因素。這其實不太是在薪資本身；而是在健康與福利（health and welfare）方面。

So medical inflation, obviously, is always going to be a little bit higher than we would like, and then when you think about how we fund the union side healthcare it's through an industry trust. We had surplus in that trust for a couple of years and with all of the headcount reductions that the industry has made, that surplus has been really evaporated.

所以醫療通膨顯然總是會比我們希望的略高；另外，當你想到我們如何為工會端的醫療保健提供資金，是透過一個產業信託基金（industry trust）。那個信託基金過去幾年有盈餘，但隨著整個產業進行了大量人力縮減，那些盈餘已經大幅消退。

And as you also know, as furloughed employees go off of the payroll, they do get four months of incremental health and welfare coverage, so that again has a hit to the trust. And there's fewer employees across the industry, which means you can't spread the catastrophic losses over as many people. So I would say those are the big drivers on that one.

而且如你們也知道，當被停薪留職的員工從薪資名冊中移除後，他們仍可獲得四個月額外的健康與福利保障，因此這也會再次對信託基金造成衝擊。而且整個產業的員工人數更少，這表示你無法把巨災損失分攤到那麼多人身上。所以我會說，這些就是那一項的主要驅動因素。

If you were looking for inflation on MS&O and rents, I think I would give you just your sequential run rate from Q4. If you had those in your model for the first quarter and probably throughout the year, you'd be pretty close. And then I think we've given you some guidance on interest and depreciation as well, so that's probably the full wrap on that one.

如果你在看 MS&O 和租金的通膨，我想我會給你第四季的逐季運行率。如果你在模型中把這些放進第一季，且可能貫穿全年，你就會相當接近。另外我想我們也就利息與折舊給了你一些指引，所以那大概就是這一項的完整說明。

Very helpful. So just wanted to confirm that you expect pricing above inflation for 2017?

非常有幫助。所以只是想確認一下，你們預期 2017 年的定價會高於通膨嗎？

I said we don't forecast price; we expect strong pricing. All our customers have options and we got to make sure we price to market, but I think our results speaks to itself in terms of trying to find that interplay between where the customer feels we provide a great service product and, at the same time, allows us to reinvest in the business.

我說過我們不預測價格；我們預期定價會很強勁。我們所有客戶都有選擇，我們必須確保定價貼近市場，但我認為我們的結果本身就說明了我們如何在「讓客戶覺得我們提供很棒的服務產品」與「同時讓我們能再投資於業務」之間，找到那個互動平衡。

Got it. And just one follow-up for Frank. When you said the -- you expect the near-term market conditions for coal to remain favorable, what do you mean by near term? Is that 2017; is that first half, first quarter? Can you just help define that?

了解。另外再追問 Frank 一個問題。你提到——你預期煤炭的近期市場狀況仍將維持有利，你所說的「近期」是指什麼？是指 2017 年嗎；是指上半年、第一季嗎？你能幫忙界定一下嗎？

Can you repeat that question, please?

可以請你再重複一次問題嗎？

I think Frank said in his comments that he expects the near-term market conditions for coal to remain favorable. Just wanted to get a sense of what near term means.

我想 Frank 在他的評論中說，他預期煤炭的近期市場狀況仍將維持有利。只是想了解一下「近期」的意思。

Well, I think what we've done on the coal side, just to reiterate some of the things that Frank said, we -- our view is that as we think about coal for the first quarter, we said 15 to 16 million tons for coal --

嗯，我想我們在煤炭這一塊所做的，為了重申 Frank 說過的一些事情，我們——我們的看法是，當我們看第一季的煤炭時，我們說煤炭是 1,500 萬到 1,600 萬噸——

Domestic.

國內。

-- on the domestic side. And on the export side, about similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter of about 8 million tons. For the full year we said we would essentially be flat if it wasn't for the competitive loss, so -- and that is about a stable rate throughout the 2017 year.

——在國內方面。而在出口方面，大約與我們在第四季看到的相近，約 800 萬噸。就全年而言，我們說如果不是因為競爭性流失，我們基本上會持平，所以——而那大約是在 2017 年全年都維持相對穩定的水準。

And that's for the year.

而那是針對全年。

On the domestic side. And export for the year, mid to the high 20 millions.

在國內方面。而出口全年則是 2,000 多萬噸的中段到高段。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

Ken Hoexter, Merrill Lynch.

Ken Hoexter，Merrill Lynch。

Good morning, Michael. Just, Michael, maybe for you on CSX of Tomorrow, maybe you could help define it. How do you define it?

早安，Michael。Michael，關於「CSX of Tomorrow」，也許你可以幫忙界定一下。你怎麼定義它？

Is this a CapEx program or new network build plan like National Gateway? Is this a CapEx plan that you're going to target? Maybe you can delve into that a little bit.

這是一個資本支出（CapEx）計畫，還是像 National Gateway 那樣的新網路建設計畫？這是一個你們要鎖定的資本支出計畫嗎？也許你可以再深入談一點。

It's multidimensional, Ken, and obviously it's building out the intermodal network, as Frank discussed earlier. It's also looking at our network. We've done some of this where we deemphasize some of the investment in the less dense lines and we're putting investments in sightings to allow us to run longer trains in some of those key corridors, our primary corridors.

它是多面向的，Ken，而且顯然包含如 Frank 先前討論的那樣，擴建聯運網路。也包括檢視我們的網路。我們已經做了一些，例如我們降低在密度較低路線上的投資比重，並把投資放在會車線（siding）上，讓我們能在一些關鍵走廊、也就是我們的主要走廊，運行更長的列車。

But in addition, we're really working on evolving more technology deployment to automate things to make them more safe. And so it's really reforming, looking at -- the opportunities we have are really in the intermodal and the merchandise and we're reshaping the network with that strategic capital to allow us to capitalize on that. So increasing the train length and service reliability on the primary routes; deemphasizing some of the local, but still keeping it safe and at high service; and investing in intermodal and technology.

但除此之外，我們也確實在推動更多技術部署的演進，以自動化一些事項、讓它們更安全。因此這其實是在改革、在檢視——我們的機會主要在聯運與一般貨運（merchandise），我們正以策略性資本重塑網路，讓我們能把握這些機會。所以是在主要路線上增加列車長度與服務可靠性；降低部分在地支線的比重，但仍維持安全與高服務水準；並投資於聯運與科技。

Great. And then on -- maybe Frank; have you started to return some of the furloughed employees? I guess when you take your efficiency gains, should we, literally, be taking the $450 million -- or $420 million last year, the $150 million you're looking at and that's your -- you add $0.11 from that into earnings and that was offset by coal this year?

很好。接著——也許問 Frank；你們是否已開始召回部分被停薪留職的員工？我想當你把效率提升納入考量時，我們是否應該直接把 4.5 億美元——或去年 4.2 億美元、以及你們所說的 1.5 億美元——視為你們的——把其中的 0.11 美元加到盈餘裡，而今年又被煤炭所抵銷？

Just want to understand how we should put those numbers that you give on the efficiency gains into our thought process for actual cost savings.

我只是想了解，我們應該如何把你們提供的效率提升數字，納入我們對實際成本節省的思考。

Let me high level and then Cindy will talk about the furloughed employees. When you look at us on a year-over-year basis, you really have to remember that we lost nearly $470 million of coal revenue, so that was a huge impact, both from a top-line and a bottom line perspective, and you look at what we did both on the pricing side and the record productivity that we gain. That's the big story that you see in 2016 on a year-over-year basis.

我先從高層次說明，然後 Cindy 會談被停薪留職的員工。當你用年對年來看我們時，你真的必須記得我們幾乎少了 4.7 億美元的煤炭營收，所以那是非常巨大的影響，無論在營收端或獲利端；而你再看看我們在定價端以及我們所取得的創紀錄生產力提升。這就是你在 2016 年以年對年角度看到的主要故事。

The furlough count is really something that Cindy keeps an eye on as we look at headcount, which was down on a sequential basis and down I think about 3,000 on a year-over-year basis, Q4 against Q4. We're going to continue to look at that. We guided to headcount being down slightly sequentially as you think about the first quarter. But that's something that Cindy is clearly focused on and making sure we have both enough resources to handle the expected demand, but also that we're doing it on an efficient basis.

停薪留職人數確實是 Cindy 在我們檢視人力編制時會密切關注的項目；人數在逐季基礎上下降，而我想在年對年基礎上，第四季對第四季大約少了 3,000 人。我們會持續檢視。我們的指引是，當你思考第一季時，人力編制將逐季小幅下降。但這確實是 Cindy 明確聚焦的事情，確保我們既有足夠資源來因應預期需求，同時也以有效率的方式來做。

On the furloughed employees piece, we got about 1,950 people furloughed right now and it's really location by location as to needing to recall. We do recall for attrition; we do see normal attrition.

就停薪留職員工這一塊而言，我們目前大約有 1,950 人處於停薪留職狀態，而是否需要召回其實是依據各地點逐一判斷。我們會因自然流失而召回；我們確實看到正常的自然流失。

We are going to be training some locomotive engineers because that's where we see the most attrition this year, but we will pull people back as we need to. And if we end up getting to a place where we don't have furloughed at a specific location, we will try to move people that are furloughed to other locations and then, if necessary, we will have to hire to protect service.

我們將訓練一些機車工程師，因為那是我們今年看到自然流失最多的地方，但我們會在需要時把人召回。而如果最後我們到了某個狀態，在特定地點沒有可召回的停薪留職人員，我們會嘗試把仍在停薪留職的人調到其他地點；然後如有必要，我們將必須招募，以保障服務。

But we look at this closely and it's really hard to be very general about what we've recalled because some of it is attrition and then we furloughed in some other areas at the same time. So, it's -- we keep very close tabs on it. We also do so to keep our employees informed, too, who want to know when they are going to return back to work.

但我們會密切檢視這件事，而且很難非常概括地說我們召回了多少人，因為其中一部分是自然流失，同時我們也在其他一些領域進行停薪留職。所以——我們會非常密切地追蹤。我們也這麼做以便讓員工掌握資訊，因為他們也想知道何時能回到工作崗位。

So just to clarify Fred's answer there then, even with volumes inflecting and coming back, you're still expecting -- I just want to clarify -- you're still expecting employees to be down on an absolute basis?

所以只是要釐清 Fred 的回答：即使運量正在轉折並回升，你們仍然預期——我只是想確認——員工人數在絕對值上仍會下降？

Yes, I think when we -- Fredrik talked about it a little bit. When we see volume coming back in our scheduled network, we have opportunities to add additional cars to trains without adding additional locomotives or people associated with that. On a unit-train basis, if it were to come back there, we may see a little bit more than what we would need to pull back. But we'd look at it based on how we see volume coming -- where we see volume coming and in what form, and then appropriately handle it.

是的，我想當我們——Fredrik 稍微談到了一點。當我們看到排程式網路的運量回升時，我們有機會在不增加額外機車或相關人員的情況下，往列車上加掛更多車輛。在單元列車（unit-train）的基礎上，如果那邊回來了，我們可能會看到需要召回的人手會比其他情況稍多一些。但我們會根據我們看到運量回升的方向——運量在哪裡、以什麼形式回來——來做評估，並據此妥善處理。

Thanks for the time.

感謝您撥冗。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski，巴克萊。

Good morning, Michael, and thanks for getting me on the call here. I want to come back to Ken's question on the CSX of Tomorrow, because I think your investors have heard snippets of what this new strategy is. But, first off, does it include a mid-60%s OR target?

早安，Michael，感謝讓我加入這通電話。我想回到 Ken 關於「明日 CSX」（CSX of Tomorrow）的問題，因為我認為投資人已經聽到一些這項新策略的片段。但首先，它是否包含中期 60% 左右的營運比率（OR）目標？

And then we've been talking about that target since 2011, so about six years now, and we're just scratching the surface of sub 70%. But when I think about some of the headwinds that have been in place the last six years with coal coming down, a lot of mix erosion in your business, doesn't 2017 set up to be a big potential year to show that OR expansion in the business? Because finally we have coal close to flat; you have gotten a lot of efficiency in the network.

另外，我們自 2011 年以來一直在談這個目標，至今大約六年，而我們才剛開始觸及 70% 以下。但當我想到過去六年存在的一些逆風，例如煤炭下滑、你們業務組合惡化造成的侵蝕，2017 年是否會是一個很有潛力的大年，能展現業務的 OR 擴張？因為終於煤炭接近持平；你們也在網路上取得了大量效率提升。

Isn't this where we can really see the potential of the CSX network? And why not, if that's not the case this year?

這不正是我們能真正看到 CSX 網路潛力的時候嗎？如果今年不是，那原因是什麼？

Brandon, yes, we still are targeting the mid-60%s operating ratio longer term. And you're quite right; we've had that out there for a number of years and we've lost about $2 billion worth of some of our most profitable business during that process. So, obviously, that delays us getting there as quickly.

Brandon，是的，我們長期仍以中期 60% 左右的營運比率為目標。你說得很對；我們把這個目標放在那裡已經很多年了，而在這段期間，我們流失了約 20 億美元、屬於我們最具獲利性的部分業務。所以很明顯，這會延後我們達成目標的速度。

I would love to have that $2 billion back and we would be easily in the mid-60%s, but that's not reality anymore. We're going to continue to march -- we're not going to predict what the operating ratio will be for 2017. As Frank alluded to, we will continue to keep you posted as the year goes on, but we're not going to make a prediction on OR for this year.

我很希望那 20 億美元能回來，那樣我們就能輕鬆落在中期 60% 左右，但現實已不再如此。我們會持續推進——我們不會預測 2017 年的營運比率會是多少。如 Frank 所提到的，我們會在年度進行中持續向各位更新，但我們不會對今年的 OR 做出預測。

I mean, Michael, is this just a case that it's really not an absolute cost opportunity in the networks? You feel that costs are structurally where they need to be and it's hard to get costs lower; so therefore, we need a lot of revenue expansion on the top line to get that mid-60%s OR?

我是說，Michael，這是否只是因為網路端其實沒有絕對的成本機會？你們認為成本結構已經在應有的位置、很難再降；因此，要達到中期 60% 左右的 OR，就需要營收端大幅成長？

No, we're going to continue to pursue cost reductions. I mean what we did this year I think was extraordinary, but Cindy and her team and the G&A groups are going to be relentless in taking cost out. We said we're going to get at least $150 million this year; obviously, we'll strive for more.

不，我們會持續追求降本。我認為我們今年所做的非常出色，但 Cindy 和她的團隊以及 G&A 團隊會不斷、毫不鬆懈地把成本降下來。我們說過今年至少要節省 1.5 億美元；當然，我們會努力做到更多。

But as we think about going to that mid-60%s operating ratio, it's going to be a combination of efficiency, volume, and pricing to the value we created for our customers. All three of those levers are going to be deployed to achieve that goal.

但當我們思考要達到中期 60% 左右的營運比率時，將會是效率、運量，以及依我們為客戶創造的價值來定價，三者的組合。這三個槓桿都會被運用，以達成該目標。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

Good morning, thanks for getting me on the call. Fredrik, if you can just talk about the competitive loss on coal that you mentioned. Was that modal on price or was it something related to how utilities are sourcing some of their volumes in the new year?

早安，感謝讓我加入電話。Fredrik，你能談談你提到的煤炭競爭性流失嗎？那是因為運具（modal）在價格上的競爭，還是與公用事業在新年度如何採購部分運量有關？

It was a competitive loss that we believe we lost to another railroad. It was a relatively short-haul, a very short-haul business, so I think the tonnage is a little bit more severe than potentially the bottom-line impact on it.

那是一筆競爭性流失，我們認為是被另一家鐵路公司搶走。那是一段相對短程、非常短程的業務，所以我認為其噸數的影響可能比對最終損益的影響更顯著一些。

And that happens. There is -- this is changing hands between us and other railroads on a continuous basis and this one was a little bit bigger than normal, which is why we highlighted it.

而這種情況會發生。這類業務會在我們與其他鐵路公司之間持續地互相轉手，而這一筆比平常稍大，所以我們才特別提出來。

Okay. And as you think of just pricing and coal in general, and the point-to-point was -- I think it's expected to roll out starting this year, how has that been received in your discussions with customers? And your guidance for volume for the full year, do you expect any of this point-to-point pricing to actually impact your volumes negatively or positively?

了解。另外，談到定價與煤炭整體而言，你們的點對點（point-to-point）定價——我想預期會從今年開始推行——在你們與客戶的討論中，反應如何？以及你們對全年運量的指引，你們是否預期這種點對點定價會對運量造成負面或正面影響？

No, I think the point-to-point pricing is something structurally that we needed to do to make sure that it was more in line with the work that was being done up there. It was time to change the way -- away from these rate districts that we had before.

不，我認為點對點定價是一項我們在結構上必須做的事，以確保它更符合那邊實際完成的工作量。也到了該改變方式的時候——不再沿用我們先前的那些運價區（rate districts）。

It really doesn't impact, I think, in any way, shape, or form the amount of volume that we're going to be moving here in 2017. And I think we also have a lot of contracts that are out there. We haven't been able to implement it in yet, but over time we will try to get it into all of our business.

我認為它不會以任何方式影響我們在 2017 年將要運送的運量。而且我們也有很多既有合約。我們尚未能在所有合約中導入，但隨著時間推進，我們會嘗試把它納入我們所有業務。

We have it in the tariffs, right?

我們已經把它放進運價表（tariffs）了，對吧？

We have it in the tariffs, but we haven't been able to touch it in all of the contracts yet. It's something that we are doing to the network and through to make sure that it's more reflective of the marketplace and the work that is actually being done out there.

我們已經把它放進運價表了，但在所有合約上我們還沒辦法全面調整。我們這麼做是為了在網路端與整體流程上，確保它更能反映市場狀況，以及外部實際完成的工作。

Okay. Sorry, one quick follow-up. It sounds like, just to confirm, we probably shouldn't expect much more rationalization in the coal network this year. Is that correct?

了解。抱歉，再追問一個。聽起來，確認一下，我們今年大概不應該預期煤炭網路會再有太多合理化（rationalization）。是這樣嗎？

Brian, this is Cindy. We're always looking. I think, as we think about transforming our network and the network of tomorrow, that something we look at. But to Fredrik's good point, we are going to make sure we serve the customers that are able to load, do so efficiently and effectively, and where we can make further reductions we will.

Brian，我是 Cindy。我們一直都在尋找機會。我想，當我們思考轉型我們的網路、以及「明日的網路」時，這是我們會檢視的事項。但如 Fredrik 說得很好的一點，我們會確保服務那些能夠裝載的客戶，並以高效率、有效的方式來做；而在我們能進一步降低的地方，我們也會做。

We think coal over time will continue to shift and close working relationship between Fredrik and I will be there with structural changes that are appropriate for the time.

我們認為煤炭隨時間推移仍會持續轉移，而我與 Fredrik 之間的密切合作關係，將會在適當的時點推動相應的結構性調整。

Okay. Thanks for your time.

好的。感謝各位的時間。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

Bascome Majors，Susquehanna。

Good morning. I know we're going to see plenty of detail in your proxy in the spring, but I was hoping that you guys could share how the Board has adjusted senior management's longer-term financial incentives to better align with the CSX of Tomorrow strategy.

早安。我知道你們春季的委託書（proxy）會有很多細節，但我希望你們能分享，董事會如何調整高階管理層的長期財務激勵，以便更好地與「明日 CSX」策略對齊。

They have -- we -- it was two years ago, I think, what we did is we changed --. We used to have a major driver of our long-term -- let me go backwards. Our short-term incentive compensation is based on operating income as well as -- that's about 60% of the bonus opportunity with a minimal amount and then 40% is based on safety, service, and strategic-type initiatives.

他們已經——我們——我想是兩年前，我們做的是我們改變了——。我們過去長期——讓我倒回去說。我們的短期激勵薪酬是以營業利益為基礎，另外——其中約 60% 的獎金機會取決於營業利益（並設有最低門檻），另外 40% 則取決於安全、服務，以及策略類的倡議。

In the long-term incentive plan, we, for many years, were strictly operating ratio. We now are on the performance piece of blend of operating ratio and return on assets, because they felt we really needed to focus more on deploying the assets in an appropriate manner. That's one of the reasons, besides the change in the marketplace, that you've see more of our capital going toward strategic initiatives is to increase that overall return on assets. So they are trying to incent us to make sure that we're really focused on getting a great return on the investments we make.

在長期激勵計畫方面，多年來我們完全以營運比率為準。現在在績效部分，我們改為結合營運比率與資產報酬率（return on assets），因為他們認為我們確實需要更聚焦於以適當方式配置資產。這也是原因之一——除了市場環境的變化——你們看到我們更多資本投向策略性倡議，以提升整體資產報酬率。因此，他們試圖透過激勵機制，確保我們真正專注於讓我們所做的投資取得很好的報酬。

Obviously, we're always going to have some amount of our investments we -- capital investments we make are to keep the railroad in good shape, keep it safe, and keep it running well. That's going to be 50% or more over time, but more and more we're going to push towards strategic investment.

顯然，我們的投資中——我們所做的資本投資——總會有一定比例是用來讓鐵路維持良好狀態、確保安全，並讓它運行順暢。隨著時間推移，這部分將會是50%或以上，但我們也會愈來愈把重心推向策略性投資。

I appreciate that color. So it sounds like the changes that we saw last year -- we're not going to see significant changes this year; that was kind of the shift?

感謝你提供的補充說明。所以聽起來，我們去年看到的那些變化——今年不會再看到顯著變化；那算是一次性的轉向？

That's correct, yes. One of the things, when you think about long-term incentive programs, Bascome, if you change them too much too often, the employees lose the focus of what is important. So I think the Board wanted to keep some continuity and the return on that is still an appropriate focus as well as OR.

沒錯，是的。其中一點是，Bascome，當你思考長期激勵計畫時，如果變動太大、太頻繁，員工會失去對什麼才重要的聚焦。所以我認為董事會希望保有一定的延續性，而對報酬的關注以及OR（營運比率）也仍然是適當的重點。

Bascome, it is Frank. I think one of the things you'll see within the annual cycle that Michael talked about where we do have a portion of the incentive opportunity against strategic goals, you will see us making sure that the things that we're doing in a given year to execute on that strategy will be part of the things that we are incented to accomplish.

Bascome，我是Frank。我想你會在Michael提到的年度循環中看到一點：我們確實有一部分激勵機會是對應策略目標；你會看到我們確保在某一年為了執行該策略所做的事情，會被納入我們被激勵去達成的事項之中。

I appreciate all that detail there. And just very high level, it sounds like you may have accrued above plan for 2016. Should we think of incentive comp as a tailwind if we're at plan for 2017 and --? Thank you; I'll drop off.

我很感謝這些細節。再非常高層次地問一下，聽起來你們2016年的提列可能高於計畫。如果2017年達到計畫水準，我們是否應把激勵薪酬視為一個順風因素（tailwind）——？謝謝；我先掛線。

Hey, Bascome, thanks; good question. Yes, you did see us take incentive comp up in the fourth quarter, which is one of the misses I think that several folks had. When you look at it on an annual basis, it resets. I think if you're looking for a tailwind that we had planned in 2017, it's going to be much more backend loaded than impact in the first half.

嘿，Bascome，謝謝；好問題。是的，你確實看到我們在第四季提高了激勵薪酬，這也是我認為不少人預估落空的其中一項。如果以全年來看，它會重置。我想如果你在找2017年我們原先規劃的順風因素，它對下半年（後段）的集中度會高得多，而不是主要影響上半年。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Morning, guys. So wanted to ask, first, just about the overall yields. We saw nice yield growth in the fourth quarter: mix was positive; coal yields up a lot. Are you assuming, Frank, in the first-quarter guidance, a deceleration in that yield growth and mix benefit? Because it feels like you kind of need to assume a mix -- a yield deceleration to get to the earnings numbers you're talking about.

早安，各位。我想先問一下整體單位收益（yields）。我們看到第四季單位收益成長不錯：組合（mix）為正；煤炭單位收益也大幅上升。Frank，你在第一季指引中是否假設單位收益成長與組合效益會放緩？因為感覺上，要達到你們談到的獲利數字，似乎需要假設組合——或單位收益——會減速。

Well, let me -- Fredrik and I will tag team this one. I think what you're seeing is, in the first quarter, as you look at the guidance that we have out there for coal, you're seeing two things happen: you're seeing the impact on the domestic side of the competitive loss, but you're seeing sequential stability and, therefore, year-over-year increase in the export coal. So you've got to take that into the mix equation.

嗯，讓我——我和Fredrik會一起回答這題。我認為你看到的是：在第一季，當你看我們對煤炭的指引時，有兩件事同時發生：你會看到國內端競爭性流失的影響，但你也會看到出口煤炭在環比上保持穩定，因此同比增加。所以你必須把這些納入組合的計算。

And then in terms of the other growth that we mentioned, in terms of merchandise and intermodal growing in line with the economy, we should see nice incremental margins associated with that. So I don't know that I see any specific mix change that you're mentioning there as we think about the first quarter.

另外，就我們提到的其他成長而言，商品貨運（merchandise）與聯運（intermodal）將與經濟同步成長，我們應該會看到與之相關的不錯增量利潤率。所以在我們思考第一季時，我不確定我是否看到你所提到的那種特定組合變化。

I guess I was just thinking like just from an overall -- maybe I asked it poorly. But just from an overall yield growth perspective -- well, to the 4% in the fourth quarter, are you assuming a deceleration from that in the first-quarter guidance?

我想我只是從整體——也許我問得不夠好。但就整體單位收益成長的角度——第四季是4%，你們在第一季指引中是否假設會比那個水準放緩？

This is Fredrik; I'll say this again: we don't forecast price. And clearly this is a combination of both our same-store sales number and the mix of the business for that given quarter, so we'll give you transparency at the end in terms of how much was price and how much was mix. I think that's all the insight we can provide you.

我是Fredrik；我再說一次：我們不預測價格。而且很明顯，這是我們同店銷售（same-store sales）數字與該季度業務組合的綜合結果，所以我們會在期末提供透明度，說明有多少來自價格、有多少來自組合。我想這就是我們能提供的全部洞見。

What we tried to do was to give you a blended view, Scott, in the way that we talked about low to mid teens on EPS growth. Obviously, that's going to be a combination of things. It's going to be the top line. It's going to be the expense line. It's going to be a couple things below the line. It's going to be share count. And when you blend all of those things together, you can get to the numbers that we're talking about.

我們試著做的是，以我們談到每股盈餘（EPS）低到中十位數成長的方式，給你一個綜合視角，Scott。顯然，那會是多種因素的組合。會有營收端。會有費用端。會有幾個線下項目。會有股數。當你把所有這些因素綜合起來，就能得到我們所談的那些數字。

Okay, that makes sense. On the -- so we started to see a little bit of slippage in some of the train speeds and service metrics. Are we at a point where we need to start thinking about bringing back people or broadly bringing back costs at a faster rate, or are you still very comfortable with where service is where we don't need to contemplate that yet?

好的，這樣就說得通了。另外——我們開始看到一些列車速度與服務指標有些微下滑。我們是否已經到了需要開始考慮把人力補回來、或更廣泛地以更快速度把成本加回來的階段？還是你們對目前的服務水準仍然很有信心，覺得還不需要考慮這件事？

Scott, I think where we are -- I think we're stable. When you look at network performance and when we break it down into how our customers see it, in a customer-facing view, our service sensitive business, intermodal and automotive is running extremely well. First-mile/last-mile service is also running extremely well.

Scott，我認為我們目前——我認為是穩定的。當你看網路績效，並且把它拆解成客戶所感受到的樣子，以面向客戶的角度來看，我們對服務敏感的業務——聯運與汽車——運行得非常好。第一哩／最後一哩服務也運行得非常好。

So Fredrik and I are very, very comfortable with where we have service and -- there's always room to improve, don't get me wrong, and as you look across some of the different measurements, there are opportunities there. I don't see resource adds as a lever that needs to be pulled relative to the measurements you're looking at. You can get into velocity.

所以Fredrik和我對目前的服務水準非常、非常有信心——當然，別誤會我，永遠都有改善空間；而且當你看一些不同的衡量指標時，確實有機會。但就你所看的那些指標而言，我不認為增加資源是需要動用的槓桿。你可以談到運行速度（velocity）。

It's kind of a mix issue when you think about the growth we've seen in the fourth quarter in coal and grain; those are a little bit slower speed services than the others, so there's a little bit of mix there. But we keep our eye on it. We make sure, looking at payable dates per load and other measures, that we're still being very efficient. And when we need to bring back resources, we absolutely will.

當你想到我們第四季在煤炭與穀物的成長時，這有點是組合問題；那些服務的速度比其他業務稍慢，所以組合上會有些影響。但我們會持續關注。我們會確保，透過每車裝載的應付日期（payable dates per load）及其他衡量指標來看，我們仍然非常有效率。而當我們需要把資源補回來時，我們絕對會這麼做。

Okay, thanks. And if I can just ask one last one for Frank on CapEx. I think the $2.2 billion in my model is closer to 19% of revenue; I thought you said 16% or 17% of revenue.

好的，謝謝。如果我可以再問Frank最後一題，關於資本支出（CapEx）。我模型裡的22億美元更接近營收的19%；我記得你說的是營收的16%或17%。

I guess I'm just surprised that it's not coming down more. If you -- I think 2016 you had $300 million of catch up from 2015 and then you pulled forward $300 million from 2017 into 2016. So I would have thought it would have been down $800 million or $900 million, but maybe I'm missing something there.

我想我只是有點驚訝它沒有降得更多。如果——我想2016年你們有3億美元是從2015年補回來的，然後你們又把原本2017年的3億美元提前到2016年。所以我原本以為會少8億或9億美元，但也許我漏掉了什麼。

When we calculate the percentage of revenue, when we give you that guidance, we do it on what we call a core basis. In other words, the PTC expense or the PTC CapEx is an overlay because at some point in time it's going to go away and it's really going to be just part of the replacement cycle that we have on our assets.

我們在計算占營收百分比時，在給你那個指引時，是以我們所謂的核心（core）基礎來做。換句話說，PTC費用或PTC資本支出（PTC CapEx）是一個疊加項，因為在某個時間點它會消失，屆時它其實就會只是我們資產汰換週期的一部分。

In terms of the year over year, you're right; there was about $600 million in the $2.7 billion for 2016, which was locomotive-specific. Some of that was deferred from 2015 and some of that was foregoing the seller financing to push it into 2017, so you do have that impact. I think the biggest driver that you have there is really looking at the inflection of the strategic investment toward the CSX of Tomorrow and that's where you're seeing, on a categorical basis anyway, the increase.

就年對年而言，你說得沒錯；2016 年 27 億美元中約有 6 億美元是機車相關的。其中一部分是從 2015 年遞延過來的，另一部分則是放棄賣方融資、把它推遲到 2017 年，所以確實會有那個影響。我認為最大的驅動因素，主要是觀察對「CSX of Tomorrow」的策略性投資出現拐點，而你看到的（至少在分類層面）就是這樣的增加。

We're being very judicious in terms of how we're investing in the infrastructure. We're looking very hard at equipment and, obviously, the longer we can go without buying new locomotives, based on all the work we've been doing and all the locomotives that we've taken delivery of in the last couple of years, should help us down that path. But you are going to see us, on a sustained basis through this planning cycle, make sure that we are transforming this company and transforming the network into what we need long term.

我們在基礎設施投資方面非常審慎。我們也非常仔細地檢視設備；顯然，基於我們一直在做的工作，以及過去幾年已交付的所有機車，我們能夠越久不買新機車，就越能幫助我們走在這條路上。但在這個規劃週期內，你會看到我們持續確保公司轉型、並將路網轉型為我們長期所需要的樣子。

Okay. Thanks, guys; appreciate it.

好的。謝謝各位；很感激。

Jason Seidl, Cowen and Company.

Jason Seidl，Cowen and Company。

Thank you. Morning, guys. I want to focus the first question here on the CSX of Tomorrow and talk about headcount a little bit. Now your headcount has come down drastically, and I don't want to underplay the real-life impacts that has on some people, but looking out, as you guys have adjusted your network and as new technologies come into play, where do you see the headcount going on the railroad?

謝謝。早安，各位。我想先把第一個問題聚焦在「CSX of Tomorrow」，並稍微談一下人力編制。你們的人數已大幅下降，我不想淡化這對某些人現實生活的影響；但往前看，隨著你們調整路網、以及新技術逐步導入，你們認為鐵路的人力編制會走向何處？

Well, I think -- it's a great question, and when we think about some of the structural changes that we've made in train length and in the investments that we're making in sightings on the route from Chicago to Jackson, will allow us to further enhance those efficiencies and reduce headcount.

我想——這是個很好的問題。當我們思考在列車長度方面所做的一些結構性變革，以及我們在芝加哥到傑克遜路線沿線「會車點／側線（sightings）」上的投資時，這些都將讓我們進一步提升效率並降低人力編制。

Another big piece of it, the CSX of Tomorrow, is the highly-automated railroad component around technology deployment. And when I think about that, there's several ways to break that down into predictive analytics, which makes us more reliable and more efficient with repairs that we need to make; automated inspections using machine vision. We have some of that deployed in our intermodal business now and looking in some other areas where we can deploy that.

「CSX of Tomorrow」的另一個重要部分，是圍繞技術部署的高度自動化鐵路組成。談到這點，可以從幾個面向拆解：預測分析，讓我們在需要進行的維修上更可靠、更有效率；使用機器視覺的自動化檢測。我們目前已在聯運業務中部署了一部分，也在評估其他可部署的領域。

And then also, when I think about mobility and being able to interact in a more -- for employees to interact mobiley, as opposed to having to be at a fixed location, as well as our customers being able to benefit from mobility technology. So those investments, as we make them and they come in, we should see additional reductions in headcount while still maintaining safety and service to our customers.

另外，當我想到行動化（mobility），也就是讓員工能以更——以行動方式互動，而不是必須在固定地點；同時也讓客戶能受益於行動技術。因此，隨著我們進行這些投資並逐步到位，在仍維持安全與對客戶服務的同時，我們應該會看到人力編制進一步下降。

Jason, one other piece of color I'd give you on that -- it's Frank -- is within the guidance that we give you on headcount, for example, down slightly on a sequential basis, you would actually, if you looked at the details, see some uptick in technology hiring as we do the things necessary to support the highly-automated railroad down the road.

Jason，我再補充一點背景——我是 Frank——在我們給你的人力編制指引中，例如按季略降；但如果你看細項，會看到我們在技術人才招募上其實會有一些增加，以支援未來的高度自動化鐵路所需的各項工作。

Great, guys; that's great color. I guess the next one is going to probably bump back to Fredrik. Let me ask this a different way.

很好，各位；這些補充很有幫助。我想下一題大概會回到 Fredrik。我換個方式問。

I know you guys aren't going to forecast pricing, but given what you know about the current market and sort of the outlook for truck competition, which I think everyone just assumes will naturally tighten as we get closer to the LD mandate, would you be surprised to see CSX pricing below rail inflation any time this year?

我知道你們不會去預測定價，但以你們對目前市場的了解，以及對卡車競爭前景的看法——我想大家都假設隨著接近 LD 強制規定，市場自然會收緊——你們會不會對今年任何時候 CSX 的定價低於鐵路通膨感到意外？

We try to stay away from pinpointing exactly rail inflation because, first of all, rail inflation has been very low over the last couple of years, so clearly we like to be above that. We think long term we have a lot of inflationary pressures that doesn't seem to be working consistent with what the rail inflation number sees. We have said 3%, 3.5% is what our labor inflation has been and it probably will continue to be, depending on what happens with the labor negotiations, but hopefully it will be lower as we move forward.

我們會盡量避免精確鎖定所謂的鐵路通膨，因為首先，過去幾年鐵路通膨一直非常低，所以很明顯我們希望能高於它。我們認為長期來看有很多通膨壓力，但這些似乎並未與鐵路通膨數字所呈現的情況一致。我們也說過，我們的勞動成本通膨大約是 3% 到 3.5%，而且可能會持續如此，取決於勞資談判的結果；但希望隨著時間推進會更低。

But overall, I think the key thing for us is to make sure that we continue to deliver excellent service to our customers, provide innovative solutions, and find that sweet spot where we can also reinvest in the business. And I think you know that pricing is the key value driver for us and it will continue to be as we move forward. Where that's going to fallout is depending on where the economy is and where the capacity utilization is.

但整體而言，我認為對我們來說關鍵是確保持續為客戶提供卓越服務、提供創新解決方案，並找到那個甜蜜點，讓我們也能再投資於業務。我想你也知道，定價是我們的關鍵價值驅動因素，未來也會持續如此。至於最後會落在哪裡，取決於經濟狀況以及產能利用率。

We have to price the market; the market changes from time to time and, as you can see, so has our pricing. And if the market tightens, that will give us an opportunity to capitalize on that as we move forward.

我們必須依市場定價；市場會不時變化，而你也看得到，我們的定價也隨之變動。如果市場收緊，這將讓我們在未來有機會把握並加以利用。

Well, I tried; can't blame me. Guys, I appreciate the time, as always.

好吧，我試過了；不能怪我。各位，一如既往，感謝你們撥冗。

Good try, Jason.

試得不錯，Jason。

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，TD Securities。

Thanks very much and good morning. So productivity clearly a highlight of 2016. Can you talk about how much of the $430 million was structural and give us some color on where you managed to find opportunities to exceed the target that was updated as recently as Q3?

非常感謝，早安。所以生產力顯然是 2016 年的一大亮點。你們能否談談 4.30 億美元中有多少是結構性的，並補充一些背景：你們是在哪些地方找到機會，得以超越在第三季才剛更新的目標？

Good morning, Cherilyn; thanks. When you look at 2016, think of productivity, the $430 million and about, in three buckets. The first bucket of about $100 million was structural; that was primarily in the coalfields, but we did also find some structural changes we could make in our merchandise areas.

早安，Cherilyn；謝謝。回顧 2016 年，談到生產力——4.30 億美元——大致可分成三個桶（類別）。第一個桶約 1 億美元是結構性的；主要在煤礦區，但我們也在一般貨運（merchandise）領域找到一些可做的結構性調整。

Then when I look at the next bucket of about $150 million, it was in train length and being able to be more efficient. It's structural in nature, but to be able to be more efficient with train size and other initiatives along those lines. And then the last $150 million, if you will, would be about -- relative to traditional productivity and initiative-based type actions that we would take, including technology and other enhancements. Probably that's a little bit higher than $150 million to get to the $430 million.

接著第二個桶約 1.5 億美元，來自列車長度以及提升效率的能力。這本質上也是結構性的，因為能透過列車規模與其他同類措施提升效率。最後一個 1.5 億美元左右，則更偏向傳統的生產力與以專案／倡議為基礎的行動，包括技術與其他強化。要達到 4.30 億美元，這部分可能會略高於 1.5 億美元。

And you asked a question about the fourth quarter specifically; could you re-ask that one again, make sure I got that right?

你剛才也特別問到第四季；你可以再把那個問題重問一次嗎？我想確認我理解正確。

Well, if memory serves, the productivity target as of Q3 was $400 million, so to finish up at $430 million is kind of nice outperformance relative to that most recent target.

如果我沒記錯，第三季時的生產力目標是 4 億美元，所以最後做到 4.30 億美元，相對於最近一次目標算是很不錯的超標表現。

Yes, there, as we were coming into the fourth quarter, we actually were able to enjoy some volume that we did not have to replace one for one on -- in terms of any resources. We did actually pull out some locomotives out of storage in the fourth quarter, but the volume helped us be able to continue to perform with productivity.

是的。當我們進入第四季時，實際上我們享受到一些運量，而在資源配置上不需要一比一地補回——也就是不必相應增加任何資源。第四季我們確實從封存中調出一些機車，但運量的幫助讓我們仍能持續以生產力方式運作並達成表現。

Great. Then just a quick one on the revenue side. I'd be curious about your thoughts on the new shipping alliances due to start up this spring. Does that impact visibility on the international intermodal side at all?

很好。接著快速問一個營收面的問題。我想了解你們對今年春季將開始運作的新航運聯盟的看法。這會對國際聯運（intermodal）業務的能見度造成任何影響嗎？

We obviously follow very closely what is going on right now in the [steamship] line business because it is a very difficult time, a lot of realignment. We do have our customers that we are aligned to and very fortunate that most of them are very strong, but we will see how this plays out. There's additional rumors out there about a variety of different potential transactions and as they fold out, we'll -- as they are developing we will have a better sense of what the impact is on CSX.

我們顯然非常密切地關注目前[蒸汽船]航運線業務正在發生的情況，因為這是一個非常艱難的時期，正在進行大量的重新調整。我們確實有與之對齊的客戶，而且很幸運其中大多數都非常強健，但我們將看看事態如何發展。外界還有關於各種不同潛在交易的更多傳聞，隨著這些傳聞逐步明朗——在它們發展的過程中，我們會更清楚其對 CSX 的影響。

Great, thank you. That's all my questions.

很好，謝謝。我的問題就這些。

David Vernon, Bernstein.

David Vernon，Bernstein。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the time. First question is around the moderation or deceleration in earnings growth towards the back half. Is that just the lapping of some of the productivity in the train length initiatives or is there something else going on there in the cost side that we should be thinking about?

各位早安。謝謝撥冗。第一個問題是關於下半年獲利成長放緩或減速。這只是因為列車長度措施帶來的一些生產力效益進入比較基期，還是成本端還有其他我們需要考量的因素？

I think it's simply the comps that we have. When you look at the quarterly EPS from 2016 and you think about how it normally adjusts throughout the year, that's really what we said. But, obviously, we're going to give you -- we gave you good guidance on Q1, as we did throughout 2016. Given the dynamic environment that we're in, we're going to keep you updated and obviously, if we can update those numbers for you as we get through the quarter, we'll do that.

我認為這只是我們的比較基期所致。當你看 2016 年各季的 EPS，並思考它通常在一年中如何調整，那基本上就是我們所說的。但顯然，我們會給你——我們已經就第一季給了你良好的指引，就像我們在 2016 年整年所做的一樣。鑑於我們所處的環境變動很大，我們會持續向你更新；而且顯然，如果我們在季度進行中能為你更新那些數字，我們也會這麼做。

All right. Then maybe just thinking longer term, obviously, the -- I'm just wondering if you guys are thinking any more optimistically about the possibility of moving from two- to one-man crews in some of the operations. And if you've done any work to scope out what it would cost to implement that and what some of the benefits could be, or if maybe it's just still too early on the regulatory front.

好。那麼也許從更長期來看，顯然——我只是想知道你們是否對在部分營運中從雙人乘務轉為單人乘務的可能性變得更樂觀。以及你們是否做過任何工作來界定推行所需成本與可能帶來的效益，或者在監管層面是否仍然太早？

Well, clearly, as you look out, technology is evolving, David. There's going to be autonomous vehicles out there, there's no question -- the only question is when and how much they will be deployed. And if you think about us putting the Positive Train Control system in place, which we will have in place, as required by law, one does have to question why there needs to be two people on the crew when you have that kind of safety overlay in there.

嗯，David，顯然從長遠來看，科技正在演進。外面一定會有自動駕駛車輛，毫無疑問——唯一的問題是何時以及會部署到什麼程度。而如果你想到我們正在建置正向列車控制（PTC）系統，而且我們將依法律要求完成建置，那麼當你有那樣的安全覆蓋機制時，確實會讓人質疑為什麼乘務需要兩個人。

So over time I think that will be an issue. I don't think it's in the near term, but longer term that's certainly something we're going to have to address.

所以我認為隨著時間推移，這會成為一個議題。我不認為是短期內，但從長期來看，這當然是我們必須面對的事情。

And, David, from a modal parity, think about the policy perspective here. You think about the dollars that are being provided into the autonomous vehicle space, whether it's governmental or private investment; we're looking for that same concept to prevail as Washington relooks at policy decisions going forward.

另外，David，從運具模式對等（modal parity）的角度來看，想想這裡的政策面。想想投入自動駕駛車輛領域的資金，不論是政府或民間投資；我們希望在華盛頓重新檢視未來政策決策時，同樣的概念也能適用於我們。

Yes, that's kind of the heart of what I'm trying to get at. When you think about a modal competition standpoint and intermodal, obviously truck price will get a huge benefit from autonomous vehicles. I'm just wondering if you think you can offset that in the same way or if you think there is some sort of longer-term disadvantage that may accrue from that.

是的，這正是我想問的核心。當你從運具競爭與聯運（intermodal）的角度來看，顯然卡車成本會因自動駕駛車輛而獲得巨大的好處。我只是想知道你是否認為你們也能以同樣方式抵消，或者你是否認為長期而言可能會因此累積某種劣勢。

No, I think it's something, obviously, will have to be negotiated with our unions and that will be a challenging negotiation. But I think if you look, inevitably, as the competition dictates, the need to do that -- and there's a safety overlay called PTC in place to help make sure that the public is protected, I think it's inevitable. It's just a question of when.

不，我認為這顯然是必須與我們的工會協商的事情，而那將是一場艱難的談判。但我認為如果你看，最終在競爭的驅動下，做這件事的需求——再加上有一個名為 PTC 的安全覆蓋機制來協助確保公眾受到保護——我認為這是不可避免的。只是時間早晚的問題。

All right. Thanks, guys.

好。謝謝各位。

Jeff Kauffman, Aegis Capital.

Jeff Kauffman，Aegis Capital。

Good morning, Mike. How are you?

早安，Mike。你好嗎？

Good, Jeff; thank you.

很好，Jeff；謝謝你。

Thank you. Congratulations. A lot of my questions have been asked, so I want to kind of circle back to coal and how that mix is going to move around a little bit.

謝謝。恭喜。我很多問題都已經被問過了，所以我想回到煤炭，談談這個組合將如何有些變化。

With nat gas up where it is, we are getting a lot closer to Eastern coal being in the money. I know you mentioned the utility short-haul loss. So when I sort all through it, we've got some met coal that's coming online and that should be more favorable, despite some of the international prices retreating. Outside of the utility customer loss, it feels like utility coal inventory is coming down, shaping up a little bit, and it feels like there should be a positive mix effect in coal, because you're losing some short-haul business, you're gaining some met.

在天然氣價格處於目前水準的情況下，我們距離讓東部煤炭具備經濟性（in the money）已經近很多了。我知道你提到公用事業短途運輸的流失。所以當我把這些因素都整理過後，我們有一些冶金煤（met coal）將開始上線，這應該更有利，儘管部分國際價格正在回落。除了公用事業客戶流失之外，感覺公用事業煤炭庫存正在下降、情勢有所改善，而且感覺煤炭業務應該會有正向的組合效應，因為你們失去一些短途業務、同時增加一些冶金煤。

Can you talk about how you're seeing the coal business? Normally, you guys give an idea of where customer utilities are, so your northern region versus your southern region. Just update us on how to think about the yields in the mix and where the inventory levels are in your service area.

你能談談你們如何看待煤炭業務嗎？通常你們會提供客戶公用事業的狀況，例如北部區域相對於南部區域。請更新我們：該如何看待組合中的單位收益（yield），以及在你們服務區域內的庫存水位。

Sure, Jeff. There's a couple of different questions in your question there, but let me see if I can address most of them.

當然，Jeff。你的問題裡其實包含幾個不同的問題，但我看看能否回答其中大部分。

As we have seen here over the last couple of months, the summer months were very hot and allowed for beginning of drawdown on some very high inventory levels. And as we look at them right now, they are down significantly year over year, probably slightly above target, both in the North and in the South, but have made significant progress over the last few months. So that is helpful.

過去幾個月我們看到，夏季非常炎熱，使得一些非常高的庫存水位開始出現去化。而我們現在看，庫存年對年已大幅下降，北部與南部可能都略高於目標，但過去幾個月已取得顯著進展。所以這是有幫助的。

In terms of natural gas prices, you are right; we are seeing significantly higher than what we saw last year, so that's a good thing. I think we've said publicly many times that we need about $350 million or so for the first half of our portfolio to be in the money. That is being sourced from Illinois basin and Western sources and so we're getting -- we're pretty close to that.

就天然氣價格而言，你說得對；我們看到的水準顯著高於去年，所以這是好事。我想我們已多次公開表示，我們的產品組合中前半部分要具備經濟性，大約需要每百萬英熱單位（MMBtu）3.50 美元左右。這主要由伊利諾伊盆地與西部來源供應，因此我們——我們已經相當接近那個水準。

The utilities are making rational economic decisions on a daily basis in terms of which utilities they are going to dispatch and we're seeing the impact of that year over year. We got off to a pretty cold winter in December; it has moderated here the first few weeks in January. But based on the preliminary numbers we've seen so far this year, we are being dispatched a little bit higher than we were last year, which I think is a reflection of the natural gas prices.

公用事業每天都在就要調度哪些機組做出理性的經濟決策，我們也看到其年對年的影響。12 月我們迎來相當寒冷的冬季開端；1 月前幾週則趨於溫和。但根據我們今年迄今看到的初步數據，我們的調度量比去年略高一些，我認為這反映了天然氣價格的影響。

So we do feel much, much better than what we felt going into previous years about our coal business. As Michael alluded to, close to $2 billion of revenue loss over a five-year period.

因此，對於煤炭業務，我們的感受比過去幾年年初時好得多、好得多。正如 Michael 提到的，在五年期間接近 20 億美元的營收流失。

We do think our domestic business, with the exception of the short-haul loss, will be pretty close to flat. Now, clearly, that can change as we go throughout the year. If we have a mild summer that could change to the downside and if we have the hot summer that can certainly change to the upside, which is also one of the reasons why, as we think about the second half of the year, it's a little too early right now to give you too much more guidance than we've provided. But we just tried to give you the best guess based on a normalized summer.

我們確實認為，我們的國內業務，除了短途流失之外，將大致持平。當然，這可能會隨著我們在一年中推進而改變。如果夏季溫和，可能會轉為下行；如果夏季炎熱，則肯定可能轉為上行——這也是為什麼當我們思考下半年時，現在要給你比我們已提供的更多指引還有點太早。但我們只是嘗試在假設夏季正常化的基礎上，給你我們最好的估計。

Then on the export side, we have seen an incredible uptick here over the last six months. The forward curve is pretty clear; indicates that things will come back down as we move through the second quarter and into the second half. And the spot market has already reflected that versus that very high benchmark that we saw. But there's no doubt that the coal business is in a much different place as we enter 2017 than it has been the previous couple of years.

然後在出口端，過去六個月我們看到這裡出現了驚人的上升。遠期曲線相當清楚；顯示隨著我們走過第二季並進入下半年，情況會回落。而現貨市場相較於我們先前看到的那個非常高的基準價，已經反映了這一點。但毫無疑問，當我們進入2017年時，煤炭業務所處的位置與前幾年已大不相同。

Okay, and just one follow-up and I'm done, because I know we're running over. On the yield side, could you help us think about how to look at or think about modeling yields given some of the mix changes going on in your coal base?

好的，最後再追問一個我就結束，因為我知道我們時間超了。在收益率（yield）方面，能否請你們協助我們思考：在你們煤炭基礎業務組合發生一些變化的情況下，應該如何看待或建模收益率？

I think that, as you said, the short-haul business will obviously help ARPU as we go in to 2017; the fact that we don't have that anymore. We did have some pretty significant uptick in the yield here in the fourth quarter.

我認為，正如你所說，短途業務在我們進入2017年時顯然會幫助ARPU；因為我們不再有那部分了。我們在第四季的收益率確實出現了相當顯著的上升。

Part of that is the fact that there were some sourcing changes that actually added to the length of haul and also the fact that some of the utilities started to rebuild inventories a little bit more aggressively than they had done before. While on average they're above, there are certain utilities that needed additional coal and that helped the yields as well.

其中一部分原因是，某些採購來源的變更實際上拉長了運距；另外也因為部分公用事業公司開始比以往更積極地回補庫存。雖然平均而言他們的庫存高於以往，但仍有一些公用事業公司需要額外的煤炭，這也同樣推升了收益率。

And then on the export coal side, clearly as we've said, when the benchmark is high that helps our ARPU, but as we go through the year, it is not impossible that that help will go the other way and will actually hurt ARPU as we move through the year. But that really depends on where the benchmark ultimately ends up.

接著在出口煤方面，顯然如我們所說，當基準價很高時會有利於我們的ARPU；但隨著一年推進，也不是不可能這種助益會反向，並在年內推移時實際上傷害ARPU。不過這真的取決於基準價最終落在什麼水準。

Okay, wonderful. Congratulations and thank you.

好的，太棒了。恭喜並謝謝。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

Scott Schneeberger，Oppenheimer。

Thanks; good morning. In the chemicals segment, could you please discuss the expected drivers of non-energy growth in 2017? And then also the potential for growth in crude volumes and how you think about the cadence of growth in the segment over this coming year? Thanks.

謝謝；早安。在化學品事業部方面，能否請你們談談2017年非能源成長的預期驅動因素？另外，原油運量成長的可能性，以及你們如何看待該事業部在接下來一年中的成長節奏？謝謝。

Sure. So, the crude market, to begin with that piece, which is in our chemical business, we have seen a nice run up and now a nice run down. We are at the point now where we're running here in the fourth quarter less than a train a day of crude by rail, so it's gone down significantly.

當然。先從原油市場那一塊開始（它在我們的化學品業務中），我們看到先是很好的上升，接著又很好的回落。目前在第四季，我們的鐵路原油運輸量不到每天一列車，所以已經大幅下降。

And as we -- it's hard to predict what it's going to be in 2017, but it's also very difficult to see that it's actually going to move up. Meaning that, if anything, I think the bias is toward less crude based on where we see the crude prices and the spreads.

而至於——很難預測2017年會如何，但也非常難以看出它實際上會回升。也就是說，如果有什麼偏向，我認為在我們看到的原油價格與價差水準下，偏向是原油運量更少。

If you look at the non-crude piece of our -- so to speak, our core chemical business, I think we continue to see that industry doing very well based on the feedstock advantage that they had versus the rest of the world. A lot of investments have been made over the last couple years and from our perspective we expect slow, modest growth in that space as we move through 2017. Maybe 1% or 2% I think is the official forecast.

如果你看我們的非原油部分——也就是所謂我們的核心化學品業務，我認為我們仍持續看到該產業表現非常好，原因在於他們相較於世界其他地區所具備的原料成本優勢。過去幾年已投入了大量投資，從我們的角度來看，預期在2017年推進過程中該領域會有緩慢、溫和的成長。我想官方預測大概是1%到2%。

And then the other piece that we, of course, have is the input side to the energy side, so frac sand and LPG, and that also depends a little bit on where natural gas prices will be. If they stay strong, that usually leads to additional inputs. If they go down, that also could put pressure on that. But as we said, right now we seem to be in a little different place than we've been the last couple of years.

然後我們當然還有另一塊，是能源端的投入品，也就是壓裂砂（frac sand）和液化石油氣（LPG），而這也在某種程度上取決於天然氣價格會落在哪裡。如果天然氣價格維持強勢，通常會帶來更多投入品需求。如果價格下跌，也可能對那部分造成壓力。但如我們所說，眼下我們似乎處在一個與過去幾年略有不同的位置。

Thanks very much. And then real quick, Cindy, with regard to the products or the efficiency savings, how should we think about the cadence for the year? Consistent with the EPS cadence or maybe something different? Thanks.

非常感謝。然後很快再問一下，Cindy，關於產品或效率節省，全年節奏我們應該怎麼看？會與EPS的節奏一致，還是可能不同？謝謝。

It will be fairly ratable across the whole -- all quarters. There won't be any one quarter or any one area or time that you will see higher.

它會在整個——所有季度之間相當平均地分布。不會有任何單一季度、單一領域或單一時間點會特別高。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Justin Long, Stephens.

Justin Long，Stephens。

Thanks, good morning. So I wanted to ask about export coal first. Could you give some more color on the split between contracted volumes and spot volumes that you're assuming within that full-year tonnage guidance? And in addition, could you talk about the split you expect between met and thermal?

謝謝，早安。我想先問出口煤。你能否就你們在全年噸數指引中所假設的合約量與現貨量之間的拆分，提供更多說明？另外，也請談談你們預期冶金煤（met）與動力煤（thermal）之間的拆分。

Sure. Essentially, because of the volatility in the marketplace over the last couple years, everything is spot. There is a few pieces of business that is on more than a quarterly basis, so it could be up to an annual basis, but essentially all of it is quarterly. So when we give you that guidance, it's based on our best guess based on what the customers are telling us and the visibility that they have. And we obviously triangulate that with some other sources.

當然。基本上，由於過去幾年市場波動很大，一切都是現貨。有少部分業務不是以季度為單位，可能長到一年，但基本上全部都是按季度。因此當我們給出那個指引時，是基於客戶告訴我們的情況以及他們所能見度所做出的最佳猜測。而我們也會很明顯地用其他來源來交叉驗證。

In terms of the split, traditionally, it has been around 70/30 in favor of met over the last couple years. The fourth quarter we did have some opportunities to move some thermal into Europe, because of nuclear shutdowns in France specifically; that was very helpful. We'll see how much vibrancy we have in that in 2017, but the split came to 60/40 in the fourth quarter. And as we -- but the best prediction right now we'd probably say is close to that 70/30 as we think about 2017.

就拆分而言，傳統上過去幾年冶金煤占比約70%、動力煤約30%。第四季我們確實有一些機會把部分動力煤運往歐洲，特別是因為法國的核電停機；那非常有幫助。我們會看看2017年那方面能有多大的活躍度，但第四季的拆分變成了60/40。而就目前最佳預測來看，展望2017年我們大概會說接近70/30。

Okay, great. That's helpful. And secondly, I was curious if you could comment on how much of your book of business for 2017 is already repriced at this point. And I know you don't give specific guidance on pricing, but just to get a sense for your high-level directional thought, given the visibility you have, does it feel like the pricing environment has likely hit the bottom and the rate of increases should improve over the course of the year? I think earlier you referenced the second half potentially being a bit stronger.

好的，很好。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我想了解截至目前你們2017年的業務組合中，有多少已經重新定價。我知道你們不提供具體的定價指引，但想從高層次方向上了解：以你們目前的能見度來看，定價環境是否可能已觸底，且在年內推進過程中漲價的速度應該會改善？我想你先前提到下半年可能會稍微更強。

Sure. Let me just tell you, on an average year we probably have about a third of our book of business that we can touch.

當然。我先說一下，一般年份我們大概有三分之一的業務組合是我們可以去調整的。

If you think about auto, intermodal, they are generally three to five years. Coal, on the export side, obviously we said is spot, but the utility side two to four years; something like that. And then on the merchandise business, probably a little bit over half in annual and the rest are two- to three-year contracts, generally. So that gives you about a third of the business that you can touch each and every year.

如果你想想汽車、聯運（intermodal），通常是三到五年期。煤炭在出口端我們顯然說過是現貨，但公用事業端是兩到四年期；大概是那樣。然後在一般貨運（merchandise）業務方面，可能略高於一半是一年期，其餘通常是兩到三年期合約。所以這樣算下來，每一年你大概有三分之一的業務可以去調整。

A significant portion of that is either coming up at the beginning of the year or the mid part of the year, with the majority of that coming in the beginning of the year. I guess the end of the year, technically. And so we've done a fair amount of that third already.

其中相當一部分是在年初或年中到期需要處理，而大多數是在年初到期。我想技術上是年底。因此我們已經完成了那三分之一中的相當一部分。

As I said, I'm not going to get into specific details on it, but we're going to continue to price to the market. And we alluded to before we think that the truck market will get into better place as we move through the year for the right -- in fact, as we mentioned earlier, driver wages should have a pretty significant pressure on it. We do think that the ELD mandate will have an impact as we get through the second half, and we also think the economy is going to grow.

如我所說，我不會深入談具體細節，但我們會持續依市場狀況來訂價。我們先前也提到，隨著今年推進，我們認為卡車市場會走向較好的狀態——事實上，如同我們先前提到的，司機薪資應該會對其造成相當顯著的壓力。我們確實認為，隨著進入下半年，ELD（電子行車紀錄器）強制規定將帶來影響；我們也認為經濟將會成長。

New construction, new build of trucks is down I think about 35% to 40% year over year, so that is also helpful in terms of the fleet itself. And so as we move throughout the year, we hope that after having been a little bit a tougher period here for the last 18 months or so that we'll get to a better place.

新建案、新造卡車的數量年增率下滑約35%到40%，因此就車隊本身而言也有所助益。因此，隨著今年推進，我們希望在過去約18個月這段較艱難的期間之後，能夠走到一個更好的位置。

Okay, great; that's helpful. I appreciate the time.

好的，很棒；這很有幫助。感謝你撥冗。

Walter Spracklin, RBC.

RBC 的 Walter Spracklin。

Thanks very much. Two quick questions, both for Cindy here. One on CapEx. I know, Cindy, you talked about the evolving mix change in your CapEx, where it's coming down, yes, but it's also -- the constitution of that CapEx is changing significantly as you convert some of your PTC and perhaps some of your coal spend into new technology. You alluded to a few predictive analytics, mechanical division and so on.

非常感謝。兩個簡短問題，都是問 Cindy 的。第一個關於資本支出（CapEx）。Cindy，我知道你談到資本支出的組合正在演變：總額在下降沒錯，但同時——資本支出的構成也在顯著改變，因為你把部分 PTC（正向列車控制）以及可能部分煤炭相關支出轉向新技術。你也提到一些預測分析、機械部門等。

My question is how soon could we see the benefit of those? And if you were to rank a couple that are expected to bring in the highest return, what would they be in and, again, how quickly could you see that impact your earnings in the next few years?

我的問題是：我們多快能看到這些投資帶來的效益？如果要你排序幾項預期報酬最高的投資，會是哪幾項？另外，同樣地，在未來幾年中，你多快會看到它們對盈餘產生影響？

Walter, I think when we look at these investments and particularly the one around longer sightings for longer trains, it's going to be 2018 before we really see that. That is a long route that we need to resequence how we operate it based on longer trains and either sighting extensions or actual additional sightings. So that's a pretty big one that we see upcoming.

Walter，我認為當我們看這些投資時，特別是關於為更長列車提供更長會車線（siding）視距的那一項，要到 2018 年我們才會真正看到成效。那是一條很長的路線；我們需要依據更長列車來重新排序（resequence）我們的營運方式，透過延長會車線視距或實際新增會車線。所以那是一項我們看到即將到來、規模相當大的投資。

On the technology side, there is investments we're making now for this year that we'll see the benefits that are already in our plan or part of our initiatives that we have in 2017. And, of course, we're building a longer and more broad sheet of longer-term benefits that we have to build a core infrastructure processes in the -- within the technology space to then build on and layer on additional opportunities.

在技術面，今年我們正在進行的投資，效益會反映在我們今年的計畫中，或是我們 2017 年各項倡議的一部分。當然，我們也在建立一份更長、更廣的長期效益清單；我們必須在技術領域內建立核心的基礎設施與流程，才能在其上持續建置並疊加更多機會。

And it is across the board, both from a customer-facing piece as well as a productivity piece, and I cannot under emphasize -- or over emphasize safety enough. This is all helping us to be a safer railroad. So that's probably about the best color I can give you, Walter.

這是全方位的，既包含面向客戶的部分，也包含提升生產力的部分；而且我再怎麼強調安全都不為過。這一切都在幫助我們成為更安全的鐵路公司。Walter，這大概是我能提供的最佳補充說明。

Would you characterize any of these investments as purely CSX developed or are these supplier -- things that suppliers have brought into you as opportunities that might be available to your competitors as well?

你會把這些投資中的任何一項描述為純粹由 CSX 自行開發的嗎？還是說這些是供應商——供應商帶給你們的機會，而你們的競爭對手也可能同樣取得？

I think it's a mix. When I look at -- for example, in fuel, when I look at fuel management technology, which is supplier driven, it's certainly open to the rest of the industry. We've implemented that and are continuing to see benefits from that. And then there's other technology that will be in-house that are part of our own core systems that will help us be more efficient, that will be more CSX-centric. Difficult to put a split on that, but it is a mix.

我認為是混合的。例如在燃料方面，當我看燃料管理技術時，那是由供應商驅動的，當然也對整個產業其他公司開放。我們已經導入並持續看到效益。另外也有一些技術會是內部自建，屬於我們自身核心系統的一部分，能幫助我們更有效率，會更偏向 CSX 自身。很難去切分比例，但確實是混合的。

Okay. And then my last question here is on capacity. Certainly you have been growing your revenue well in excess of your growth in expenses and part of that productivity -- certainly some of it -- may be some use of available capacity.

了解。我最後一個問題是關於運能。顯然你們的營收成長遠高於費用成長，而這種生產力的一部分——至少其中一些——可能來自於運用既有的可用運能。

If you look at capacity in general on your network, I guess the question comes, how much more growth can you achieve where expenses will lag that growth before you get to the level where really the expenses catch up? Is there any sense you have of that run rate of growth ahead of you that can come at, obviously, expanding margins before you run into some capacity constraints?

如果從你們整體路網的運能來看，我想問題是：在費用落後於成長、直到費用真正追上之前，你們還能達成多少成長？你們是否對於未來可在擴大利潤率的同時、在遇到某些運能限制之前，能夠領先成長的那個成長「速度／幅度」有任何概念？

Walter, I'd say when you think about it on a carload basis in our scheduled network, we have plenty of room to grow, particularly between Chicago and the Northeast and the Northeast and Florida. A little bit of more challenge because of the sighting impacts or sighting constraints between Chicago and Florida.

Walter，我會說，若以我們排程式路網（scheduled network）的車皮量（carload）來看，我們有很大的成長空間，特別是在芝加哥與東北之間，以及東北與佛羅里達之間。芝加哥到佛羅里達之間因會車線（siding）的影響或會車線限制，挑戰會稍微大一些。

Although I will tell you that our variable train schedule concept, when we built the larger trains by running -- changing from a 24-hour dispatch to a 28-hour dispatch, we can now go back to 24-hour dispatch and add a train a week as opposed to a train a day as we run against additional volumes. So there are great levers on that side that we can pull, no matter what route we would use.

不過我可以告訴你，我們的可變列車時刻表（variable train schedule）概念：當我們透過把調度從 24 小時改為 28 小時來運行更長列車、建立更大編組後，現在我們可以回到 24 小時調度，並在面對額外運量時，改為每週增加一班列車，而不是每天增加一班。因此在那一端我們有很好的槓桿可以運用，不論採用哪條路線都一樣。

On the unit train side, there would be more that we would have to bring on to support the unit train growth, but those are very favorable margins that you would want us to do. So it's a bit of a mix based on how traffic comes on. But I feel really comfortable with looking out into in 2017 and thinking about volume growth again that we will be able to be very, very efficient with our resource intensity to support volume.

在整列列車（unit train）方面，若要支援整列列車的成長，我們需要投入更多資源，但那是你們會希望我們去做的，因為其利潤率非常有利。所以會依交通量如何進來而有所不同，是一種混合。但展望 2017 年、再談運量成長時，我非常有信心我們能以非常、非常有效率的資源強度來支援運量。

Okay, that's great color. Thanks very much, Cindy; appreciate it.

好的，這些補充很棒。非常感謝你，Cindy；感謝。

Brian Konigsberg, Vertical Research Partners.

Vertical Research Partners 的 Brian Konigsberg。

Good morning, thanks for taking the question. I know this is running long here so just a couple quick ones.

早安，謝謝讓我提問。我知道時間有點久了，所以我只問幾個簡短問題。

Just on -- so on intermodal, maybe can you just give us an update and characterize the level of competition you're seeing? Obviously, it's been a tough 12 to 18 months there. With the prospect of firming conditions, at the margin at least and perhaps getting even better later in the year, has the competitive dynamic softened a little bit or is it still very tough out there?

關於——關於聯運（intermodal），你能否給我們一個最新狀況並描述一下你們看到的競爭程度？顯然過去 12 到 18 個月相當艱難。在市場狀況有望轉趨穩固的情況下，至少在邊際上、而且可能在今年稍晚變得更好，競爭態勢是否稍微緩和了一些？還是外部仍然非常激烈？

I would say that in the fourth quarter we did see the spot market tighten a little bit. Certainly not where it needs to be, but we did see a little bit of a reversal there from the previous few quarters and that's an encouraging sign. I don't think that you're going to get to a significantly better place until you get into that second half of 2017 and probably into 2018.

我會說在第四季我們確實看到現貨市場稍微收緊了一點。當然還沒到需要的程度，但相較於前幾季，我們確實看到一些反轉，這是令人鼓舞的訊號。我不認為你會在 2017 年下半年之前、而且可能要到 2018 年，才會到一個顯著更好的狀態。

Now having said that, we've been able to grow our domestic intermodal business for over a decade at about a 7% clip each and every year. Last year was a little bit lower than that, partly because of the market, but also because of a competitive loss.

話雖如此，過去十多年來，我們的國內聯運業務每年都能以約 7% 的速度成長。去年略低於這個水準，部分是因為市場因素，但也部分是因為競爭造成的流失。

As we think about 2017, I think we're comfortable to say that we're going to return to that 5% to 10% domestic intermodal growth, despite the fact that the environment is a little bit more challenged than we would like to see long term. And I think that's a testament to the investments we made, the service improvements that Cindy and the team has done, new terminals opening up, continuing to work with alignment with some of our channel partners. And so we feel pretty good about where our domestic intermodal business is going into 2017 as well.

展望 2017 年，我想我們有信心表示，我們將回到 5% 到 10% 的國內聯運成長，即便環境仍比我們長期希望看到的更具挑戰。我認為這證明了我們所做的投資、Cindy 與團隊完成的服務改善、新場站的啟用，以及我們持續與部分通路合作夥伴保持一致協作。因此，我們對於 2017 年國內聯運業務的走勢也感到相當樂觀。

Great, that's helpful. And secondly, just coming back to the commentary about labor costs and the majority of the inflation related specifically to health and welfare. Maybe this is a little bit hard to answer, but obviously there is a lot of debate right now with the Affordable Care Act. If that does in fact get adjusted, could that have potential impacts on the outlook for inflation or is that not applicable?

很好，這很有幫助。第二點，回到你們對勞動成本以及通膨主要來自醫療與福利相關的評論。這可能有點難回答，但顯然目前對《平價醫療法案》（Affordable Care Act）有很多討論。如果它確實被調整，這是否可能對通膨展望造成影響，還是這不適用？

In our context, it's not applicable given the way that our industry trust is set up to handle health and welfare claims from our union employees.

在我們的情況下，這不適用，因為我們產業信託的設計方式，是用來處理我們工會員工的醫療與福利理賠。

Understood, great. And if I -- one last quick one. Are there any potential property gains that we could expect in 2017?

了解，很好。另外，如果我——最後再快速問一個。2017 年我們是否可以預期有任何不動產處分收益？

We always have real estate on the market, nothing that would compare to the last two years. One was an operating property gain this year and a nonoperating property gain last year. We try to provide visibility to the bigger ones. There's always going to be a little bit here or there that we have on the market that happens to hit, but we'll certainly keep you posted if we have anything big hit.

我們一直都有不動產在市場上出售，但不會有可與過去兩年相比的案子。今年是一筆營運性不動產收益，去年則是一筆非營運性不動產收益。我們會盡量讓大家對較大的案子有能見度。市場上總會有一些零星的資產剛好成交，但如果有任何大的案子落地，我們一定會隨時向你更新。

Great, thank you very much.

很好，非常感謝。

Donald Broughton, Avondale Partners.

Donald Broughton，Avondale Partners。

Good morning, gentlemen. Let me ask the CapEx question a completely different way.

早安，各位先生。我想用一個完全不同的方式來問資本支出（CapEx）這個問題。

Help me think about how you strategically think about the ebb and flow of CapEx. I mean, in my mind, is it -- in the long term strategically isn't it long term cheaper to spend more money on CapEx during periods of lighter or less traffic? And isn't it -- doesn't a more well-invested, better maintained infrastructure make achieving a lower OR on a sustained basis more achievable? And if so, why aren't you taking the current lull in demand as an opportunity to increase CapEx instead of decelerating it?

請幫我理解你們在策略上如何看待資本支出（CapEx）的起伏變化。我的想法是——從長期策略來看，在運量較輕或交通量較少的期間投入更多 CapEx，長期不是更便宜嗎？而且，投資更到位、維護更好的基礎設施，不是更有助於在較長期間內持續達成更低的 OR（營運比率）嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼你們不把目前需求的低迷視為提高 CapEx 的機會，而是選擇放緩？

Let me try to tackle that question in a couple different ways. In terms of the CapEx that's deployed in any given year, the amount of work associated with that CapEx can change depending on how much volume is on the railroad. When you look at 2015 and 2016, we got a lot of work done for the money that we had, especially on the infrastructure side.

我嘗試用幾個不同角度來回答這個問題。就任何一年所投入的 CapEx 而言，與該 CapEx 相關的工作量會隨著鐵路運量多寡而改變。回頭看 2015 年與 2016 年，我們用既有的資金完成了大量工作，尤其是在基礎設施方面。

In addition to the volume levels, all the work that we did on train length and reducing the number of active trains that we had out there gives our engineering forces the ability to get more work done. We saw some good work by the procurement department in really looking at how they can leverage a lower-cost environment to drive CapEx savings on the materials, which again allows us to get more work done. So beneath the covers there, there actually is a recipe that is really aligned with what you're talking about.

除了運量水準之外，我們在列車編組長度以及降低在外運行的列車數量方面所做的工作，也讓我們的工程團隊能完成更多工作。我們也看到採購部門做得很好，確實去研究如何利用較低成本的環境，在材料端推動 CapEx 節省，這同樣讓我們能完成更多工作。所以在檯面下，其實確實有一套做法，與你所說的方向非常一致。

On the equipment side of the house, it really is going to depend on what types of traffic we have, what are our storage levels on equipment, and -- both on the locomotive side and the freight car side. But what you're seeing us do is really strategically invest and transform the Company and the network and the service products much more aligned with the revenue portfolio that we expect in the future, which is very different than the revenue portfolio we've had for the last 10 years.

至於設備端，則真的要看我們有哪些類型的運輸需求、設備的封存水位——包括機車端與貨車端。但你看到我們正在做的是，以更策略性的方式投資、轉型公司、網路與服務產品，使其更符合我們對未來營收組合的預期；而這與我們過去 10 年的營收組合非常不同。

Donald, we don't dramatically disagree with your theory. If you look back to the recession of 2008 and 2009, we kept our capital spend up during that period for the very reason that you noted, which is let's not defer maintenance, let's continue to maintain and be ready for upswings. So I think, theoretically, you have a valid point there.

Donald，我們並不會大幅反對你的理論。如果你回頭看 2008 與 2009 年的衰退期，我們在那段期間仍維持資本支出，正是因為你提到的原因：不要延後維修保養，要持續維護並為景氣回升做好準備。所以我認為，理論上你這點是有道理的。

So, if I -- let me make sure I heard what you just said. I think I just heard you say, yes, you're right; to a certain degree we've already done that over the last year or so.

所以，如果我——讓我確認一下我剛剛聽到你說的。我想我聽到你說，是的，你說得對；在某種程度上，我們在過去一年左右其實已經這麼做了。

We've had a very consistent capital program, especially during downturns, which is a change. In the past, many times when there was a downturn you'd cut back on your capital. We don't think that's the right thing to do.

我們的資本計畫一直非常一致，尤其是在景氣下行期間，這是一種改變。過去很多時候，一旦景氣下行就會削減資本支出。我們不認為那是正確的做法。

We think maintaining a pace, both in good times and bad times, allows us to better utilize, deploy the capital. And, as you say, we're changing some of our orientation toward more strategic now to try to improve the return on assets. But, theoretically, we try to keep a fairly constant 16% to 17% of our revenues as a measure.

我們認為無論景氣好壞都維持一定的節奏，能讓我們更好地運用與配置資本。而且如你所說，我們現在也把部分方向調整得更具策略性，以改善資產報酬。但在原則上，我們會盡量把資本支出維持在相對穩定的水準，以營收的 16% 到 17% 作為一個衡量指標。

Fair enough. Thank you, gentlemen.

可以接受。謝謝各位先生。

Thank you, everyone. We appreciate your attention. We will see you next quarter.

謝謝大家。感謝各位的關注。我們下個季度見。

This concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。您可以掛斷電話線路。