CSX Corp (CSX) 2010 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the CSX Corporation fourth-quarter 2010 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. During this call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Baggs, Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations, for CSX Corporation.

Thank you, Lori. Good morning, everyone. And, again, welcome to CSX Corporation's fourth-quarter 2010 earnings presentation. The presentation material that we will be reviewing this morning, along with our quarterly financial report and our safety and service measurements, are available on our Web site at CSX.com under the Investor section. In addition, following the presentation today, a webcast and podcast replay will be available on the Web site.

Here representing CSX this morning are Michael Ward, the Company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clarence Gooden, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer; David Brown, Chief Operating Officer; and Oscar Munoz, Chief Financial Officer. Now before we begin the formal part of our program, let me remind everyone that the presentation and other statements made by the Company contain forward-looking statements. You are encouraged to review the Company's disclosure in the accompanying presentation on slide two. This presentation identifies forward-looking statements and risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance to differ materially from the results anticipated by these statements.

In addition, let me also remind everyone that at the end of the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with the research analysts. With 32 analysts now covering CSX, I would ask that as a courtesy to everyone to please limit your inquiries to one primary and one follow-up question. And with that, let me turn the presentation over to CSX Corporation's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, Michael Ward. Michael?

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Last evening, we were pleased to report another quarter of excellent financial results with earnings per share of $1.14. These results reflect our continued relentless focus on delivering value to our customers and our shareholders. With a positive economic backdrop, Clarence and the sales and marketing team were able to leverage our strong service product to increase volume and revenue across each of the three major markets we serve, Merchandise, Intermodal, and Coal.

At the same time, in spite of the winter weather that has impacted volume in the last month of the quarter, David and the operating team kept the network fluid and continued to produce strong results in safety, productivity, and service for our customers. As a result, CSX posted record results for the fourth quarter, with operating income increasing 46% to $846 million and with earnings per share increasing 48% to $1.14.

Turning to slide five, as we began 2010, we told you that we believe the actions we took during the recession would set the stage for even more business success going forward. As you can see from our results for the full year, that clearly happened.

For the year, we set records in operating income, up 35%, operating ratio, which improved 380 basis points, and earnings per share, which improved 40%. 2010 was a year of momentum, with volume, revenue, productivity, and operating leverage driving strong results. We expect that momentum will continue in 2011.

This year, we expect again to produce record financial results, including a high 60%s operating ratio which positions the Company well as we progress toward our goal of a 65% operating ratio within the next five years. We expect to achieve this all the while continuing to invest in the business, and producing a service product that meets the needs of CSX's growing customer base. Now, let me turn the presentation over to Clarence, to review our top line results. Clarence?

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. As the economy began its second year of growth, positive trends continue to support growth across the businesses that we serve. According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production finished the year by rising in December by more than it had since July. In addition, the manufacturing sector continued to expand for a 17th consecutive month, as reflected in a reading of 57 for the latest Institute for Supply Management's index. These improving trends combined with the value of our rail transportation product led to a strong increase in volume experienced during the fourth quarter.

As we continue to see growing demand for rail service, we remain focused on capturing the value of our services, and we continue to be committed to delivering an even safer and more reliable service product for our customers. Now let's turn to the next slide and review the results. Let me begin my discussion on this slide by reminding everyone that CSX follows a 52 - 53-week fiscal year. As a result, CSX had an extra week in 2010. This resulted in 14 reporting weeks for the fourth quarter.

As you can see in each of the charts on this slide, we are providing both a 14-week view which includes the benefit of the extra week and a comparable 13-week view of our fourth quarter. In the chart on the left, after adjusting for the $171 million in revenue associated with the extra week, our fourth quarter revenue grew 14%. Looking at the two charts on the right, volume and revenue per unit both increased 7% after adjusting for the extra week. Let me underscore that these 13-week comparable results are non-GAAP financial measures that may provide you with a more meaningful comparison to future and prior quarterly results. Let me also refer you to the quarterly financial report which presents both GAAP and non-GAAP results by individual markets.

That said, the rest of my discussion today will be based on using the 13-week comparable quarter to give you a year-over-year view of our performance. Now, let's look at the components of the change in revenue on slide eight.

On a comparable basis, CSX revenue increased 14% in the quarter, due to volume growth, core pricing gains, and the impact of higher fuel costs, reflected in our fuel surcharge program. As you can see on the chart, volume increases drove $155 million of year-over-year revenue growth. Also, the combined effect of rate and mix accounted for $156 million of the increase, reflecting yield gains across all markets as we continue to sell the value of CSX service products and the relative value of rail transportation. Finally, as you look further to the right the impact of higher fuel costs increased our fuel recovery $14 million in the quarter.

Let's turn to the next slide and take a closer look at the volume growth. Looking to the far right-hand side of this chart, you can see that total volume increased 7% on a comparable basis versus the same period last year. This growth comes on top of stronger year-over-year comparisons in the fourth quarter of 2009 as US rail shipments began to recover in the second half of last year. This overall rate of growth is nearly twice the rate of the overall economy with the primary driver being our Intermodal business which continues to deliver double-digit growth on the strength of both our international and core domestic businesses.

Now, turning to slide 10, revenue per unit increased by 7%, driven by price, mix, and increased fuel recovery. The largest component of the increase, same-store sales pricing, increased 6.2%. Recall, the same store sales are defined as shipments with the same customer, commodity, and car type, and the same origin and destination. These shipments represent approximately 75% of our total traffic base. In addition, increased fuel recovery had a positive effect on revenue per unit. As you look at the charts, you will also notice higher revenue per unit back in 2008. That resulted from even higher fuel prices than exist today.

Finally, partially offsetting these two favorable drivers was the effect of negative mix changes, reflecting the strong growth and lower revenue per unit Intermodal traffic, and the continued impact from terminating a prior inter-line, Intermodal agreement in 2010. These improvements continue to reflect the substantial value CSX is providing to our customers, as well as the relative value of rail transportation. As such, looking forward, we continue to expect more price increases to exceed rail inflation on a sustainable basis.

Now, let's take a look at each of the major markets that we serve, starting with Coal. Coal revenue increased 26%, driven by a 5% increase in volume and an increase in revenue per unit. The increase in revenue per unit reflects an improvement in yield, higher fuel recovery, and positive mix. Export coal grew year-over-year as demand was strong for US metallurgical coal shipments to Europe and Asia.

For the full year, CSX shipped just over 30 million tons of coal to the export market. On the domestic side utility demand strengthened as utilities maintained stockpile levels while experiencing increased burn rates and the industrial sector also experienced growth driven by stronger steel production. That said, the fourth-quarter results were also negatively impacted by weather during the last month of the quarter. This has had a temporal impact and is expected to be made up moving forward.

Looking at 2011, we expect to ship 35 million to 40 million tons of export coal, driven by improving global demand and evolving supply constraints outside of the United States. As the impact of the unfortunate situation in Australia becomes more clear, where we are in that range will also become more clear. In addition, utility demand is expected to be favorable year-over-year, as electrical generation is expected to grow, and industrial demand for coal is also expected to increase consistent with the ongoing economic growth.

Now, turning to our Intermodal results, Intermodal revenue decreased 1% as we continue to cycle the effects of terminating our prior inter-line Intermodal agreement in 2010 which also negatively impacted revenue per unit. International volumes grew again this quarter, up 31%, due to the stronger US economy, and due to new international customers gained as a result of our portfolio of service and network offerings. As a result of this strong growth, international volumes represented almost half of CSX Intermodal shipments for the quarter versus 40% in 2009. Domestic volumes shrank 3% year-over-year, consistent with what we saw in the third quarter. Without the year-over-year volume declines experienced by one of our largest private asset customers, we would have experienced growth in this sector as well.

Looking forward, we expect Intermodal revenue growth for the year, and to achieve record volumes in 2011. We continue to see strong demand to convert domestic freight off of the highway for the majority of our customer base driven by tighter over-the-road truck capacity. In addition, the pace of imports remains strong and we continue to see demand in new markets. CSX also expects to continue making gains in pricing across both lines of this business.

Finally, we continue to make strategic investments in our growing Intermodal business, such as in our international gateway initiative and our Northwest Ohio Intermodal facility which will open by the end of March. We expect all of these investments to continue driving long-term Intermodal growth.

Turning to the next slide, let's look at the merchandise markets. The merchandise markets show revenue growth across all three sectors. Within the agricultural sector, revenue growth was driven by yield and mix improvements that more than offset a decline in volume. Here, the declines in shipments of export feed ingredients and phosphates more than offset the increased shipments of feed grain, and food and consumer products.

Within the industrial sector, all three markets had significant improvements in revenue. First, automotive shipments increased on growth in North American light vehicle production. Second, metals volumes improved largely due to increases in scrap steel consumption. And third, the chemical market saw growth in demand for intermediate products used in the manufacturing of automobiles and consumer goods.

Finally, within the housing and construction sector, forest products volumes grew despite the weakness in construction-related markets. Growth in this sector was primarily driven by increased shipments of pulp board and paper, used in packaging for consumer products, as well as an increase in volume associated with minerals and waste shipments.

And turning to the next slide, let's look at the overall merchandise summary across these sectors. Merchandise revenue increased 12%, driven by a 4% increase in volume and a 7% higher revenue per unit. The volume growth was led by 18% growth year-over-year in automotive, as well as an 8% growth in metals. Revenue per unit increased due to higher yields, some mix changes, and increased fuel recovery.

Looking toward the first quarter, we expect growth to continue across the steel and chemical markets as a result of the growing economy. And we expect demand for automobiles to continue. We also see the housing market beginning to stabilize. Finally, continued improvement in both consumer sentiment and personal income should support spending and growth across several markets.

Now, let me wrap up on the next slide. Looking ahead, we expect economic growth to continue. Discussions with our customers and key leading indicators suggest continued economic growth throughout 2011. With that as a backdrop, CSX volume growth in 2011 is expected to exceed both gross domestic product and industrial production. As such, our first-quarter volume outlook is favorable. Our network is well positioned to handle this volume growth, as we have handled these higher volumes in the past and we are well prepared to continue providing the service reliability required by our customers.

At the same time, core pricing gains are expected to be broad-based and, again, exceed rail inflation reflecting the value of CSX's service product and the relative value of rail transportation. Given what we are accomplishing, we remain confident that CSX stands out as a compelling value for customers, especially as they seek transportation providers, but also offer environmental solutions. Thank you. And now let me turn the presentation over to David, to review our operating results.

Thank you, Clarence, and good morning, everyone. Since 2005, CSX has improved its safety and service measures by more than 50% and generated nearly $1 billion in total productivity gains. The talented people of CSX enhance performance every day with rigorous focus on leadership, discipline, and execution. The results are encouraging. We are building upon them with a new initiative called mutual accountability. This initiative is grounded in the idea that all employees are accountable to each other. We recognize that improved customer service is the key to the next level of success. The high level of customer service that we seek to offer can best be achieved and sustained on a foundation of communication and shared commitment.

Now, let's look at some of the important outcomes starting with safety on slide 18. This slide shows both fourth-quarter and full-year FRA personal injury and train accident rates over the last four years. The left-hand panel shows personal injury results. In the fourth quarter, shown on the top half, the personal injury rate was 0.99. At the same time, you can see on the bottom half, our full-year 2010 frequency improved 17%, to 1.0. This is a record full-year personal injury performance at CSX.

Looking at train accidents, on the right-hand panel, fourth-quarter and full-year frequency rates improved 21%, and 9%, respectively. These excellent results were achieved through a sustained commitment to safety by all employees. Now, let's look at operating performance on slide 19. Overall, the network ran well during the quarter, despite significant winter weather challenges that impacted volume.

On the left side of the chart, on-time originations and arrivals both remain at strong levels and continue to support efficient and reliable train operations for customers. On the right side of the chart, train velocity fell slightly, and dwell increased modestly but both continued at one-plan levels, while absorbing volume growth. I believe that with our commitment to serving customers safely and reliably we will improve these measures in 2011.

Turning to slide 20, let me discuss how we are focusing on the three core networks to deliver value for customers. The CSX team focuses specifically on reliability, productivity, and service drivers, to ensure a well-balanced product offering for customers across three core networks. Here, you can see some of the networks specific drivers and initiatives that we rely upon on an ongoing basis. You see some familiar measures that are important to ensure reliability, train velocity, terminal dwell time, and on-time performance. From a productivity standpoint, train length, tons per car, gaining the efficiency of double stack, and yard automation, play a major role in driving greater efficiency.

Finally, there are many measures of customer service that help us gain insight into each network. For Coal, tools such as the unit train management system help better coordinate train service with customer needs. For the Intermodal network, a focus on container availability, and consistent transit time are critical service drivers. And in the Merchandise network, a focus on meeting customer expectations with local switching and committed time of arrival continue as main drivers of success.

Moving to slide 21, let's take a look at our productivity results. CSX has maintained a strong pipeline of productivity over the last several years, and that continued in 2010. Even after the significant productivity gains achieved in 2009, we achieved an additional $151 million of productivity savings in 2010 through effective asset management, absorption of carload growth into the existing train operating plan, implementation of technology innovations and prudent expense control. These savings helped offset much of the inflation costs associated with our non-fuel expenses, and were achieved through the leadership and efforts of cross-functional process improvement teams who are charged with maintaining productivity pipelines into future years, and driving the operational discipline to achieve targeted results.

Turning to the next slide, slide 22 shows the continuous improvement in the operating ratio over the last five years, ending with the fourth quarter's record of 70.0%. We have sustainable momentum going forward. As new business is brought on and assets are deployed to handle this traffic, CSX is well positioned to deliver on the goal of a 65% operating ratio no later than 2015.

Now, let's take a look at some of the areas where the Company continues to invest in the network to gain efficiencies and prepare for growth. We continue to invest in key terminal expansions and infrastructure projects. The map on the left side of the page shows some of the investments made over the last few years and projects currently under development. We have made investments in the strength, flexibility, and capacity of the network through major projects, including the southeastern and I-90 corridors. These critical infrastructure projects, which expanded capacity on long-haul routes, ensure the network remains fluid and efficient as volume returns. Key Intermodal and rail terminals have also added capacity and improved throughput in congested areas.

Finally, new strategic investments through public/private partnerships including the National Gateway Initiative, and the expansions in Massachusetts and Florida, will provide enhanced transit times and improved service for customers. These long-term investments provide a foundation for volume growth, productivity, as well as safe and reliable operations.

Now, let's move on to the next slide to look at the locomotive and freight car capacity available to handle additional volume. As you can see on the left-hand side of the slide, we returned assets to the network during 2010 to accommodate growth. That said, there are still locomotive and car resources remaining in storage at levels sufficient to handle significant growth.

On the locomotive side, there are 211 locomotives that can be immediately returned to service. At the same time, there are an additional 273 locomotives that require some limited maintenance that can also be brought back onto the network when needed. Freight cars are also available to handle additional growth. There are nearly 11,000 in storage that can be redeployed to support additional volume in most lines of business.

Turning to the next slide, I will review the hiring plans for 2011. During 2011, we expect to hire and train nearly 2,900 new union employees to offset attrition, which is anticipated to be more than 2,500. This hiring also supports further business growth. As a reminder, hiring and training is a process that requires four to six months before new employees are promoted into full time positions. Additionally, there will be some hiring to support the implementation of positive train control, which is included in the overall hiring plan. Bottom line, we continue to manage resources effectively, and are positioned to ensure the right people and resources are in the right locations to serve customers effectively.

Now, let's wrap up on slide 26. Looking forward, we will build on our strong safety performance, as we pursue the ultimate goal of zero injuries and accidents. The network will remain stable, fluid, and efficient, while providing a more reliable product for our customers. We will continue to drive productivity, control costs, and manage resource levels closely as volume grows. Finally, our focus on service will enable continued carload growth by meeting the expectations of our customers.

Our employees continue to hold each other mutually accountable for providing a high level of service safely, reliably and efficiently, which delivers value to both customers and shareholders. Now let me turn the presentation over to Oscar to review the financials.

Thank you, David, and good morning, everybody. Before I begin my financial review, and as Clarence discussed earlier, CSX's fourth-quarter results included an extra week resulting from the Company's 52-, 53-week fiscal reporting calendar. Now while Clarence reviewed the quarterly volume and revenue results on a comparable 13-week basis, I will present our consolidated financial results on a GAAP basis for the fourth quarter 2010, which includes the impact of that extra week.

So with that as background, let's turn to slide 28 for a summary of the fourth-quarter results. Let's start with an overview of the results starting at the top of the slide. Revenue growth, coupled with the continued strong cost management delivered in the face of increasing fuel prices, yielded a 46% increase in operating income to a fourth-quarter record $846 million. Looking below the line, interest expense was up $11 million, primarily reflecting the impact of the extra week. In addition, other income was down $11 million, the details of which are in the quarterly financial report.

Income taxes were $271 million in the quarter, the result of higher earnings and the cycling of a prior-year favorable state tax adjustment. For the quarter, the effective tax rate was 38.7%. As we go forward, you should expect the tax rate to approximately be 38% in 2011. All-in, CSX finished the quarter with EPS of $1.14, an improvement of 48% versus last year. Now, if we turn to the next slide, let's review the impact of the lag effect associated with our fuel surcharge program.

As we've mentioned in prior quarters, the lag in our fuel surcharge program produces a favorable earnings impact in times of falling fuel prices and a headwind in periods of rising prices. During the first three quarters of this year, fuel prices were not a significant issue. However, as prices rose during the fourth quarter, the result was a $20 million headwind due to the lag effect of our program. Given the recent trend of rising fuel prices, and looking at the forward curve, we expect that fuel lag could continue to be a headwind, certainly in the first quarter and possibly beyond.

So with that, let's begin our expense review in detail on slide 30. Labor expense increased $776 million, from $116 million from last year. Additional train starts as a result of incremental volume drove $53 million of increased expense in the fourth quarter. Looking at the chart on the left, average head count for the quarter increased by about 2%. Going forward, we expect head count to be up approximately 2% sequentially between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, which provides us with the lead time necessary to hire and train new employees ahead of the anticipated attrition.

For the full year, as David said, we expect overall head count to be only up about 1% to 2% year-over-year, which supports the volume growth expected, and the installation of various positive train control equipment.

Next, as mentioned on previous calls, CSX and the rail industry continue to face wage and health care costs that have been running above normal inflation rates. The impact for CSX in this quarter was $34 million.

The final driver was an increase in incentive compensation which impacted us by $29 million as a result of the increase in earnings. You will recall this program is available to management employees and the portion of our union work force that have performance-based agreements.

Moving to slide 31, MS&L expenses decreased 4% or $21 million versus last year. If you look at the table on the right, the largest driver relates to inland transportation costs, which were favorable by $45 million. Just as a reminder, this relates to the termination of a prior Intermodal interline agreement and results in a quarterly reduction in revenue as well as a corresponding reduction in operating expense. The first quarter of 2011 will be the last time you will see this level of impact before we cycle this event in the second quarter.

In addition, a decrease in the number of casualty claims is the primary driver of this quarter's net $20 million favorable reserve adjustment. And finally, we saw a $44 million increase in volume-related and other expenses based on the 13% volume growth versus the fourth quarter of 2009.

We move to the next slide on fuel. Total fuel increased $96 million, or 38% versus last year. Looking at the chart on the left, CSX's average cost per gallon for locomotive fuel climbed to $2.42, an increase of 19%. This increase in fuel price accounted for $51 million of higher expense, as seen in the table on the right. Next, higher volume accounted for $36 million of incremental expense.

Moving down the table, fuel efficiency was $5 million unfavorable as harsh winter weather and business mix drove an increase in gallons per gross ton mile. And rounding out the table, non-locomotive fuel increased by an additional $5 million.

Let's review our remaining fourth-quarter expenses on slide 33. Beginning with depreciation, these costs increased $31 million year-over-year, to both a net increase in our asset base and the impact of the additional week of expense. Going forward, you can expect depreciation to be in the range of $240 million to $245 million per quarter, as we continue to increase our asset base. Moving to rents, expenses increased $7 million, primarily reflecting the higher cost associated with volume.

Now let's take a quick look at our full 2010 full-year performance. As volume began to return in 2010, we remained focused on operating a safe, reliable and efficient railroad. At the same time we continue to demonstrate our commitment to drive profitable growth. As a result, CSX produced record results for the full year. On the right side of the chart, operating income was up 35% and EPS increased to 40%, as CSX achieved records in both measures. As Michael discussed earlier, our full-year operating ratio was also an all-time record of 71.1%, a year-over-year improvement of 380 basis points. Going forward, the actions taken to achieve these results position us well for continued success in 2011 and beyond.

Now let's take look at free cash flow on slide 35. The improving earning power of the Company translated into free cash flow in 2010 of $1.5 million-- $1.5 billion. With increased earnings and an improving financial position, we remain committed to our balanced approach in deploying capital for our shareholders. First, as our free cash flow has increased we have invested more in our business. In 2010, we invested $1.8 billion aimed at delivering long-term value to our customers and shareholders. This level of investment has helped propel CSX's result over the last several years. During the year, we also announced the 7th and 8th increase in our quarterly dividend since 2005, collectively representing a 35% compounded annual growth rate over that five-year period.

And finally, we continued our current share repurchase program. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased nearly $350 million or about 5.6 million shares of our common stock. Now for the year, we repurchased approximately $1.5 billion, or more than 26 million shares, and cumulatively, over $5.6 billion of shares have been repurchased since 2006.

Going forward, we expect to complete our current share repurchase program by the end of the first quarter. Now, with that, let's review our capital investment plan for 2011. In this year, we are expecting to invest $2 billion in our business. On the chart on the left, you can see that the bulk of the spending will be used to maintain our infrastructure, and invest in our rolling stock to help ensure a fluid network for our customers.

We will increase spending this year for strategic capital, supporting investments aimed at long-term profitable growth. These investments coupled with the continued focus on operating efficiencies, and inflation plus pricing will help us grow to a 65% operating ratio no later than 2015. Finally, the investment needed to meet regulatory requirements will increase with the primary driver continuing to be positive train control, an unfunded mandate that must be operational by 2015. As previously stated, our estimates for the total cost of PPC implementation are expected to exceed $1.2 billion by 2015.

Now let me wrap up on the last slide. Entering 2011, CSX's liquidity, core earning power and ability to generate cash are stronger than ever. As Clarence mentioned, the economy will continue to expand in 2011, and CSX expects to grow above both GDP and IDP, while producing core pricing gains in excess of rail inflation.

In addition, we remain focused on delivering operating leverage through a period of continuing volume growth. Further process improvements and technology advancements will deliver $130 million to $140 million in productivity this year. And we expect incremental margins will remain strong in 2011. Given this foundation of growth, core pricing, and productivity, we expect our operating ratio in 2011 to be in the high 60%s. This positions us well to deliver on CSX's operating ratio target of 65% no later than 2015.

Finally, we remain committed to a balanced deployment of cash by investing in the business, delivering dividends and share buybacks and creating value for shareholders. So with that, let me turn the presentation back to Michael.

Well, thank you, Oscar. We're gratified that our customers' businesses are showing real signs of recovery, and proud the way our employees have stepped up to meet their needs while delivering the financial results you have seen this morning. This is an important time for CSX and other companies to take stock in what we need to do together to drive growth and increase US competitiveness in the global markets while creating jobs. I also want to underscore how important it is for government authorities to support entrepreneurism, to install innovation, and to propel rather than hinder American businesses. To that end, we're encouraged by the recent set of bipartisan policy compromises and discussions in Washington.

The freight railroads allowed to grow, to build, to hire, and to contribute, can continue to offer an even more valuable set of solutions. We're the safest, most secure, most environmentally friendly and most efficient way to move goods by land. At this pivotal point, I urge the government to lift, rather than add, strictures on our ability to contribute. For its part, CSX can commit that our employees will continue to safely drive to even better productivity and service, and that the investments shareholders have made will continue to improve the quality, flexibility, and capacity of this essential transportation network.

In doing so, we will continue to satisfy our customers, meet the needs of the nation, and deliver excellent results for our shareholders. With that, we will now turn to your questions.

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Tom Wadewitz with JPMorgan.

Good morning, Tom.

Yes, good morning, Michael, and everyone else, and congratulations on the strong execution and the really positive outlook. I wanted to ask you a question on expense, I guess, expense drivers. You presented a pretty strong contrast to what we heard from Union Pacific last week where they listed quite a few different drivers of stronger expenses, or expense inflation. And I was wondering if you could talk about how big of an impact do you expect from pension, training, state taxes, casualty accrual? Is there a significant headwind underlying that? Or are those items just different than what we saw from UP?

Hey, Tom. I don't know what is driving others, but what I can talk about is obviously ours. I mean I think we're expecting this year, it is really not much different than what we've expected in past years. You've got the issue of growth and volume, of course, our normal productivity to offset the inflationary costs that are out there but nothing really significant that I would project at this point.

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then in terms of the export coal, that's obviously a pretty good business for you guys, pretty high margin. What kind of conviction do you have in the five to ten million of additional tons? It seems that maybe there is some risk that your producers would have difficulty bringing more coal out of the ground, so is that -- do you have strong visibility from the producers and strong conviction in that? Or is there some risk in the supply chain that the coal producers may not be able to meet that?

Tom, this is Clarence. We feel very positive about it. We think our producers have the capability of producing. Even with the cold weather that we've been experiencing in the coal field, Dave and his team has kept the velocity of the coal trains up over 16.7 miles per hour. And we've checked the port capacity two, three times, and worked with our partners in the ports and we think we have the capacity to handle that in the ports. So we're very, very positive on the 35 to 40 million tons.

Well, thank you, Tom.

Sure. Thank you.

Our next question is from Scott Flower with Macquarie.

Good morning, all. I wondered, just to follow up on the export coal situation, I guess some of the questions I've had in following on the coal companies is just that with the upper big branch and some of the impacts on safety that are coming down the industry, that they just physically may have problems producing that much more coal, and are you expecting more cross-over coals to go export? Or help us a little bit. Or is that going to come out of the utility market in the US?

Scott, this is Clarence. Some of it will come out of the utility market in the south part of the United States because the stockpiles are slightly above normal in the South. It should not affect the northern utilities. A lot of the demand is coming out of Pittsburgh 8 Seam coal over the port of Baltimore, and we feel very comfortable with that. And we also have nearly double the amount of coal going through the Birmingham/Mobile gateways that (sic) we've had before. So as a percent of the total export coal, that's the fastest growing area that we have.

Okay, and then the other question, and I know that David talked a little bit about it, but I was just wondering if you could give us some sense, and I know it is hard to talk about it in averages, but where you may be in terms of capacity, in terms of train lengths, in some of the different business lines? And I know you broached the topic of terminals but do you feel good about your terminal capacity as the business has rebounded?

Sure, Scott, this is David. We feel very confident in our continued ability to grow with the capacity we have available. About 10% of additional volume could come into our current general merchandise train network and we looked at Intermodal and automotive and believe we can bring on 15% to 20% more volume into existing trains given our current operating plan.

At the same time, we're always looking at our operating plan and just tweaking it as we go along to make sure it has the high level of service we need to have, with the capacity for growth and terminal-wise, the same thing, and we are working through some productivity initiatives, some automation initiatives. We see the ability to continue to grow there as well. We're pretty confident in that.

Great. Thanks.

Thank you.

And thank you. Our next question is from Bill Greene with Morgan Stanley.

Good morning, Bill.

Hi, good morning. I just want to talk about the margin trend. You talked about the 65% OR within the next few years. How much of that trajectory is accelerated or decelerated by some of these export coal trends given the profitability there? So in other words, if export coal is weak in 2012 does that mean we will have to struggle to keep the margins where they are? How do we think about the impact?

It is hard to estimate. It is Oscar, Tom. Bill, sorry. As far as the long-term grow to 65% initiative, we project a lot of different business areas and there will be cycles within that and it will help in some areas and not help in other areas. So I can't give you a specific number.

While that business is profitable, most of our lines of business are as well. So I think if that mix does change a little bit, I think it still doesn't knock us off our trajectory of reaching that goal.

Okay. And then, Michael, I'm wondering if you can comment a little bit further on positive train control. So it seems like the freight industry is at least going to spend the amount of capital necessary to hit the goals from the FRA, but obviously the commuter rails have to play ball there. And if they aren't spending the money and achieving this, where does that leave the industry? Do we just pause? Or how does that move forward with the FRA?

I think the way we view it, that is the law. And we have a strong policy of obeying the law. So we're going full bore to have that operational by the end of 2015. We're developing the technology at this point. And you're right, some of the commuters may have some challenges. But I don't think that will impact our ability to put the system in place on our network.

But the burden wouldn't fall to you if they're unable to meet their obligations?

That's correct. It would not.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you, Bill.

Our next question is from Gary Chase with Barclays Capital.

Good morning, Gary.

Good morning, everyone. Wanted to ask a couple of questions on the cost side, if I could. First, as you think about that $130 million to $140 million in productivity that both David and Oscar discussed, is there a way to give us a sense of how much of that you're already realizing in the fourth quarter and how much of that is sort of left on the table to be achieved as we move through 2011?

The number we're giving you is a 2011 number. And so in essence, none of that was achieved in the fourth quarter. Because that would count towards the $151 million, I think, that David mentioned. So the project plan, the teams associated with that are scaled through the course of year. Different initiatives, different objectives, different timing. So that is a specific 2011 figure.

I guess what I'm thinking though, Oscar, is at least our assessment is, the productivity across the network got better as we moved through the year. So you didn't -- some of the benefits that you recognized during 2010, at least the way we look at it, you wouldn't have really had the opportunity to get a full year's worth of credit for that?

Yes, obviously, some of the initiatives David put in place do carry over into next year and are a part of that $130 million to $140 million, as well as the new initiatives he's putting in place.

Okay. Is there a way, Michael, to give us a sense of how much of that, just even qualitatively is sort of new, new efficiencies that you need to find?

Gary, I don't think we really have a good quantification of that but I think I can say that we have high confidence that the plans in place will deliver the $130 million to $140 million.

Okay, and just a quick one on comp per head in Q1, you referenced the head count, Oscar. Just wondering if we're going to run into anything on the incentive comp side or maybe you could just quantify what that dynamic might look like in Q1 for us?

Well, the incentive comp is driven by our results. And, of course, as you just heard, we had record results in this past year, 2010. Our estimation for next year, with the higher benchmarks and higher plans will be it will revert back to a more normal average, so you will probably see a little bit of a reduction in that incentive comp in the first quarter.

Okay, guys, thank you.

Thank you, Gary.

Our next question is from Chris [Weatherby] with Citi.

Good morning, Chris.

Good morning, guys. Maybe if I could touch on pricing a little bit. When you think about 2011, Clarence, and you look at kind of the order of magnitude, obviously, you're looking for pricing increases in advance of inflationary pressures, but is there a reason to believe there should be a significant fluctuation in the level of pricing you've been able to achieve over the last couple of years, particularly with volumes coming back at the pace we're looking at for 2011?

Well, Chris, I think what we said was we expect to exceed rail inflation. And on an ongoing basis, that rail inflation is around 3%, 3.5% level. And we think we can beat that handily.

Okay. There is nothing specific, though, whether it be legacy, which seems to be pretty much done, that would, I guess, impact fluctuations relative year-over-year but obviously you just kind of want to pace above that 3.5% type of bogey.

That's right.

Okay, fair enough. When I think about capital deployment, switching gears, Oscar, obviously from a cash balance perspective, you saw the number bump up a little bit in the fourth quarter. I guess we will probably get more information, at the end of the first quarter, about what your buyback plans may be, but any kind of thoughts about how you think about that aspect of it, whether it is dividend or buyback and capital deployment?

Well, as you know, and we've said this quite constantly, we remain committed to our balanced approach for deploying capital for share owners, through both investing and the shared dividend and repurchase program. I think at our May investor conference you will get a broader view about our capital structure and what we're planning for the future.

Okay. That's helpful, guys. Thank you very much for the time.

Thank you, Chris.

Our next question is from Chris Ceraso with Credit Suisse.

Good morning, Chris.

One moment, please.

Good morning, Chris.

Guys, can you hear me?

Yes, we can.

Okay, thanks. A couple of questions on the regulatory environment, Michael. Absent a change in legislation, how much room do you think the STB has to effect meaningful change in regulation?

Well, I think that obviously as you know, there are some hearings that have been scheduled to look at a broad range of economic regulatory issues. I think we're somewhat encouraged by the President's executive order that he signed on January 18, putting out that he thought that we ought to be looking at lessening regulations, certainly not putting new regulations in place.

And I think if you look at the freight rail industry, we're a perfect example of a Company that needs to be able to continue to contribute, without further regulation, because we do help with job growth, manufacturing strength, and competitiveness of US companies. So we're encouraged and hopeful by that executive order that we're not going to see new regulatory burdens imposed upon the rail industry.

Do you think that order opens up the window maybe to dial back PTC or have some change in that mandate?

We would certainly hope so. There are certain aspects of that that we have been having ongoing discussions with the Federal Railway Administration on, particularly what does the map look like. Do we use the 2008 traffic flows or the 2015 traffic flows to define what that network is? And we would hope that as part of that examination asked for by the President, there would be some relief on the expense of that unfunded mandate with its negative return on investment.

Okay. Thank you.

Our next question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Good morning, Ken.

Good morning, Michael and Oscar. Hey, Oscar, is this the once in five-year opportunity to now reset on to a normal calendar?

It is actually one in six or seven, but we will pass on that offer. Thank you.

Just on the coal, the export coal jumping up, are there capacity investments that you need to make, or can the port handle it right now?

Ken, this is Clarence. In our assessment of our three main exporting facilities, which are Mobile, Newport News, and Baltimore, we think we have the capacity in place right now to handle the 35 to 40 million tons.

Okay. Great. Oscar, on the $130 million to $140 million in productivity, you have been using $130 million to $150 million. Am I reading too much into that, that you're tightening that range a little bit?

No, you're not reading anything into it. That is their number. It is a little bit of a tightening. As you know, and David showed in his chart, we have had a grease success over the last few years, so just a little tightening. But the team is terrific and often over-delivers, so we will keep you posted.

Okay. Dave, you noted in your presentation that on-time arrivals had fallen to 70% from 79%. But you didn't mention kind of is it just weather or is there something more going on that is kind of impacting that ratio?

Ken, we really had a strong -- we believe, a strong service performance in the quarter. We did have some impact from winter weather, particularly in December. So that did influence that number downward a little bit. But at the same rate, we believe that the overall service performance certainly supported the growth you've heard about today, and we will continue to really work hard and be driven on improving it and making it the best it can be, but we're pretty satisfied with where we're reporting today.

Thank you, Ken.

Thanks, Michael.

The next question is from Scott Group with Wolfe Trahan.

Good morning, Scott.

Good morning, guys. Just a couple more follow-ups on export coal. Clarence, have you set the export met and thermal tariffs for this year? And what kinds of increases are you thinking about for 2010? And then on the capacity side, you have been pretty clear, you think you can handle the 40 million tons, what are the mines and ports telling you that actual capacity is if demand is even stronger? How much above 40 can you go?

Well let me answer the second one first. How much above 40 can we go? We think that there is some play above 40, and we think both in the short-term and the mid-term, with some CapEx investments with our partners, of which we have the plans on the drawing board, that we could increase that capacity. As it relates to the tariffs, the tariffs, as you know, get revised in April for most of the export coal, particularly on the metallurgical side and we're going to watch what the marketplace is doing and try to price to that marketplace.

Okay. And then on the -- one more for you, Clarence. You talked on the call about some lost short-haul phosphate volumes and a lost Intermodal customer. Can you quantify those, and talk about the timing for when those will grandfather?

I don't want to talk about the Intermodal customer because that is up to that customer to make public any remarks they want to make, Scott. But on the phosphate side, there was a well-publicized event down in the Bone Valley in which the Sierra Club filed suit against Mosaic, and one of the Fort Meade phosphate mines was closed down temporarily. That order was appealed. They were allowed to reopen that mine. It is currently operating right now. That issue will get revisited again in April.

Thank you, Scott.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Justin Yagerman with Deutsche Bank.

Good morning, Justin.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First question relates back to the met coal, and I know there has been a lot asked about it. In the second quarter of last year, you guys show outsized pricing due to increased volumes in met coal, and I just wanted to get a sense of the sensitivity around -- as we span the range of 35 to 40, and perhaps even slightly above, if you guys are able to do that this year, how is that going to impact pricing depending on those volume levels, and what kind of increases could we see if we see above trend coal in the quarters?

Well, one of the -- what is happening in this export coal market now in our view is that the incremental tons that are coming in are thermal coal, principally going to northern Europe. And the thermal coal won't attract the same level of rate that the metallurgical coal does, although it will attract a very profitable rate. Does that answer your question?

So if I'm hearing you right, the incrementals are not necessarily as high as if it was all met coal because of the all-in landed costs that they need to come up with for the coal?

That's right.

All right. So I'm thinking about that right. All right. And then the next question is on the share repurchases, you guys alluded to the fact that you are going to be done with your current authorization as of the end of Q1. I was just curious if you had any thoughts on general return of capital to shareholders, and when you think about once you're done with that, how you think about balancing the dividend versus share repurchases, and then, I guess, the timing from either a Board meeting standpoint, or just a management thought process standpoint in terms of re-upping that share repurchase once you're through with it?

Just again, a reminder of how we do sort of think about our deployment of capital back to owners, I think primary is the reinvestment in the business which you've seen us do quite a bit. Actually, the secondary is on the dividend increases. And you've seen a lot of that. And sort of on a tertiary basis, we do the share repurchase. But as I said on the call we have done quite a bit of that. We will continue that balanced deployment. We will talk more about the broader deployment at the May investor conference. That is probably the right time for that. But in the interim, you will see the finishing up of our current authority on the repurchase aspect. So we think about all of them in that way.

Thank you, Justin.

Appreciate it.

The next question is from Scott Malat with Goldman Sachs.

Good morning, Scott.

Good morning. Thanks. I just wanted to follow up on the on-time originations. I know that you're still high versus historical standards. Just historically, for all the rails, if you kind of go through, it has been a good early indicator of maybe some more stress in the system. We haven't seen that here by any means. I totally agree with that. But at what point would it be an issue? And what should we look out for, and if volumes are as strong as you kind of giving us an outlook, why won't it continue to kind of decline from here?

Yes, Scott, originations are a reflection of kind of our service level. We do focus on maintaining those at a high level. And they do fluctuate up and down. It also is a factor of our operating plan. So our one plan is the control mechanism that we use. So that we do -- we schedule traffic through terminals, we schedule traffic over our line of road at levels that we can move productivity, and efficiently, given the capacities that we have. So that is sort of how we, in the medium-term, focus on maintaining those at a high level.

And it is a daily focus that we have. It is not publicly reported. But it is something we talk about quarterly. And, of course, we look at it daily. And multiple times a day. And it is a key focus.

So I guess at what point would you be worried if it dipped below certain levels? Are there certain targets that you can maybe try to stay above?

We don't want to go -- we want to stay in the 70s to 80s range. And also we look at that on a market segment basis. We look at it segregated by Intermodal, we look at it by our Merchandise trains and then several priority areas for premium traffic and so forth. So it does mean more in some of those segmented areas than others.

Scott, as David indicated during his presentation, we do have additional assets we can redeploy. So we will keep it in that 70-plus range as we go forward.

And I will just finish up with just a general comment, that our guidance on our operating ratio improvement not only in 2011 and beyond obviously is all predicated on delivering great service to our customers. So that is in the foundation of our numbers. And we're pretty confident of that.

That's helpful. Thanks. And the other question I just had was on maybe a longer-term outlook for Coal. We've been hearing about EPA proposed emission standards, maybe in a report in March or whenever that comes out, but is there any way you can help us think about some of the risks in that report or some of the things you're looking out for, I guess is a better way to put it?

: Well, Scott, our numbers and our research indicates that over the next decades, worldwide coal consumption doubles. It is driven mainly on a worldwide basis by the economic growth in India and China. And that's also being built by steel in those countries for their infrastructure. So we think the export markets are going to be very positive. And in the domestic markets we've had some plants close on CSX that were the older, smaller plants. There were 13 of those plants on our network and they represented less than 5% of our total annual tonnage. And we believe what will happen there is some of the newer plants will have to throttle up to higher production rates in order to make up for that.

And most of those plants are 50- and 60-year-old less efficient plants to begin with.

That's right.

But if you go forward, you think, if there is any more closing on the East Coast, because of less coal burning by utilities, given the EPA admissions standards, you can make that up in export? Is that the way to kind of think about it, to be offset?

I think so, yes.

Okay. Thanks.

The next question is from John Larkin with Stifel Nicolaus.

Good morning, John.

Good morning, gentlemen. At the risk of asking a question about something other than export coal -- (laughter). On the Intermodal side, I think Clarence indicated that you had a strategy in place to try and make sure that you had ample containers available for your customers. David Brown indicated you had 15% to 20% excess capacity on the Intermodal side. It looks like there is a lot of leverage there. Could you illuminate us a little bit on this container availability strategy?

Yes, John. This past year, 2010, in the fourth quarter, particularly, there was an acute shortage of domestic containers on the West Coast versus what the demand was. And as a result of that, we were able to get some pricing action there. What we have done in our UMAX program, as well as the Union Pacific is doing in the UMAX program, is adding capacity in that as we speak. So we will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 7,000-plus containers, domestic containers, more for this year, particularly in the fall peak than we had last year in the fall peak.

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe as a follow-on in another commodity area, automotive traffic looked very strong in the fourth quarter. In your outlook, you indicated that you thought that would remain strong. Could you give us a little color on how that breaks out between domestic and foreign transplants, where the real strength is, whether there are any new plants about to come onstream, where you're seeing people increase production, et cetera?

There is a new Volkswagen plant that is coming onstream in Chattanooga, Tennessee here this year. And we're seeing growth across just about all segments, whether it is the transplants or whether it is the domestics. As you know, both Ford and General Motors have got improved sales that is coming along, there will be at least a million more vehicles produced this year in the North American vehicle production than was produced last year. So there is all positive trends in that automotive business.

With the current forecast, like 13 million, light vehicle production?

That's right.

Thank you very much.

Thank you, John.

Our next question is from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Newcrest.

Good morning, Cherilyn.

Thank you very much. Good morning. First question I wanted to ask was with respect to Intermodal, just what you're hearing from customers regarding the need to restock following the Christmas sell-through and how you think the early Chinese New Year may impact the flow of your volumes in the first quarter?

Well, the early Chinese New Year, which I think starts on February 3, has -- people are shipping right now in January to avoid that two-week shutdown in Asia. So the international traffic has been reasonably strong. The domestic Intermodal traffic has not been as strong in the first quarter as obviously it was in the fourth quarter. So there is a little excess capacity in there. Truck rates off the West Coast are down slightly as we go through this slump, so it will slump down a little bit here during the lunar new year, but we think in the spring, it will come back fairly strong because inventories are at reasonably low levels.

Thank you. Second question, a bit more big picture, I was just wondering Oscar, maybe you could talk about the medium-term operating ratio target, and how your medium-term view of fuel feeds into that, because fuel surcharge revenue has got a 100% operating ratio associated with it and higher fuel prices tend to degrade everybody's operating ratio.

Cherilyn, you're absolutely correct. The mid-term view is obviously a steady progression toward that 65% within the five years. Fuel would be, if you asked me the question, would be probably a high significant and consistent fuel spike would cause us a timing impact in a particular quarter or year because of exactly what you mentioned. Having said that, the forward curve today is up a little bit, but not greatly, that that would have that impact. And math-wise, anything over 100 starts to begin to have some near-term effect on the lag. But, again, remember it is just the timing aspect, that we in essence catch it up over time.

Right.

Well, thank you, Cherilyn Radbourne.

Thanks. That's all my questions.

The next question is from Jason Seidl with Dahlman Rose.

Good morning, Jason.

Good morning, gentlemen. How is everything? A couple of quick questions. One, on the Intermodal front, Clarence, maybe you could talk about sort of walking between more volumes and pricing. It seems like you could probably get both this year as truck capacity tightens.

That's the plan. That is exactly the plan.

Okay. Well, that's always a good thing in my eyes. And I guess at the chance of offending Mr. Larkin with another export coal question, I will do that anyway. On the export coal, how much of the 35 to 40 million tons is actually committed capacity for 2011? What percentage is committed?

Well, I don't know of that incremental number. I would tell you that of the total number, it is in excess of 50% is already signed contracts now.

In excess of 50%. Perfect. I will turn it over to someone else as I'm sure the queue is still long. Take care, guys. Thanks.

Thanks.

Our next question is from Keith Schoonmaker with Morningstar.

Good morning, Keith.

Good morning. You group comparable period volume by about 7%. Can you share the commensurate increase in crew starts or train starts, please?

If the question, we're up 7% in volume, what was the percentage of crew starts up? We're looking here for a second, please, Keith.

Okay.

Why don't you ask your second question while we're searching.

Sure. I'll do that. The 13% of CapEx budgeted for regulatory requirements, including some unfunded mandates, is this crowding out investments and things like capacity expansion or low emissions locomotives?

Well, you're asking a very good question there, because clearly, this mandate is diverting capital from other improvements we might otherwise make, Keith. We think that is rather unfortunate. But it is a law. It is an unfunded mandate that we're going to meet. But clearly, it is inhibiting to some extent us making other investments that we would like to make. And I think we now have an answer to your first question.

Okay.

Yes, Keith, we had about 9% train starts in the fourth quarter.

Okay. 9%. So eventually, of course, as more volume comes back, we will have to have additional starts, and it sounds like we've approached that point now.

That's correct. We did have to add some trains in both the automotive and the Intermodal networks to support some of the growth.

Great, thank you.

Our next question is from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

Good morning, Walter.

Good morning, guys. Both of my questions here on pricing contracts for next year. When you look at through the year, is there a period in the year where you expect most of your 2012 pricing to get done, and sort of what quarter are you expecting most of it to get done for 2012?

Third and fourth quarters.

And roughly in terms of order of magnitude, it is that 50% of them in those quarters or --

Both quarters combined will start to approach 75%.

But it is biased toward the fourth quarter, right?

Biased toward the fourth quarter.

So no change there. Okay. The second question, again, on the -- when you look at your pricing target of inflation plus, is there any mix effect that you see in 2011 that is going to help or hinder that? And is there any sort of specific commodity groups that you might have that might be sort of toward the lower end that might give some risk to that, to hitting that level or is it fairly even across the board?

Well, number one, I think that on the same store sales basis, it is going to be very positive, because the mix won't impact that, because it will be different OD pairs that is involved in that. But to answer your question, on mix, the mix should be positively impacted this year, driven mainly in our phosphate business, because our projections are for a lot of interior phosphate, long-haul phosphate to come in, as we anticipate high corn and soybean plantings. So that should be positive. With export coal being up, that will be a positive mix in our numbers. So it looks very good from a mix standpoint.

Order of magnitude there, is this 100 basis points, or is this 50 or somewhere in between?

Inflation plus pricing.

Okay. All right. Thanks very much. That's all my questions. Thanks.

The next question is from Jeff Kauffman with Sterne, Agee.

Good morning, Jeff.

Hi, it is actually [Conschina Pinabrady] for Jeff. I just had one follow-up on the export coal side. Of that 35 to 40 million tons that you expect to ship in 2011, can you talk about low much is going to Asia and how much is likely to be more shorter-term replacement going to Australia?

Well, of all of the coal that we would ship between the 35 and 40, the mixes will be 50% to Europe, 25% to Asia, and 25% to South America.

And then could you also give us the number for 2009, how much met coal was shipped?

2009? Two years ago?

Yes.

2009 was mostly thermal coal that was shipped that year.

Why don't we get back to you with the answer to that question because we don't have the data on it.

Not a problem. Thank you so much.

Our next question is from Matt Troy with Susquehanna.

Good morning, Matt.

Good morning. I will keep it short. Two questions. For Mike or Clarence, one, on GDP or IP assumptions you've referenced volume growth in 2011 of economic growth-plus for your traffic. Just wondering what your bogey is. I'm guessing it is between 3% and 4% on economic growth. So you're talking about volume growth for you in the mid-single-digits. Is that correct?

That's correct.

Okay. And the second question I have, and I think I won't beat the dead horse, I will shoot it, on export coal, and that would be simply when -- Clarence, no reason to question your guidance on export coal, last February you said 30 million tons, you did 30 million tons, this year, just curious, the 35 to 40, have you seen inquiry as a result of the flooding in Australia? I know it is a fairly recent event. And this guidance that you formulated, obviously, isn't -- a lot of thought and bottoms-up work goes into it. Have you seen a lot of customer inquiry about alternative sourcing due to the flooding in Australia and how much of that is in this guidance, if at all? Thanks.

Two answers to that. First one is we've seen some inquiry, not a lot. Some. Because people are still in the assessment mode. And then as the unfortunate incidents in Australia sort themselves out here over the next few days, weeks, and months to come, we will have -- it will give us a clearer view to how much of that 35 to 40 is actually going to be impacted by Australia.

So is it fair to assume that there is an upside bias that you would move more coal rather than less because of that situation?

We won't move less than that 35 to 40 and there is a potential to move more, yes. Absolutely.

Got it. Thank you for the time.

The next question is from Anthony Gallo with Wells Fargo.

Good morning, Anthony.

Good morning, thank you. A question for Clarence. I wasn't clear if you offered an outlook for agriculture, both domestic and export, please?

We did not. But it seems to us to be very positive. As you're aware, commodity prices, particularly corn and wheat and soybeans have skyrocketed. There is drought in South America and flooding in Australia. So we think that the corn crops and the soybeans, which obviously have not been planted yet, will be very big crops, and given the fact that ethanol now for cars built after 2001, or later, can go to a 15% blend, the demand for corn in this country will go up.

And what is your export opportunity, what is the rough percentage there?

For the eastern roads it is very small versus what you're going to see in the western roads.

A lot more of ours is going to feed mills, right?

That's correct.

Okay. And then a different question, back to Scott Flower's earlier question around train length and, I think, distributed power. Are those improvements largely complete and what role are they going to play in the margin story going forward?

Well, Anthony, we -- as far as distributed power is concerned we're always looking for opportunities to do that and we do have some areas where we're using distributed power today and I'm sure in the future we will find other opportunities. But we are largely where we are going to be for a while with the distributed power because it is sort of a function of geography and the types of trains that we run over our different core routes. As far as train links are concerned, again, we are looked at our operating plan on a regular basis trying to improve our length of trains but at the same time make sure we configure an operating plan that maintains capacity for growth.

So incrementally, we are always going to have some capacity in that train plan to add additional traffic. As we talked about in the fourth quarter, we did reset our train plan somewhat in the fourth quarter, by rebuilding our dedicated automobile network. So we put on trains that are automobile-only trains where we had previously with the lower volumes been using a lot of our merchandise trains to move automotive. At the same time, Intermodal, as growth occurs there, we add additional train starts on just a basis to maintain some volume of capacity growth within our existing network. So that has been our strategy and so you will see that we will continue to do that going forward.

Is that a margin headwind or a tailwind? Or does it not have to play out that way?

I mean it is -- I guess margin -- it helps. The better we do that. And it is part of the long-term plan.

Great. Thank you very much.

The next question is from Donald Broughton with Avondale Partners.

Good morning, Donald.

Well, good morning. John is right. All of the good export coal questions have already been taken. But that said, I noticed since we're getting down to the minutia, a return to the kind of seasonality, very, very strong pricing in phosphate, in the fourth quarter, and we're up 32% year-over-year. Up, gosh, what 21% sequentially. Is that something we should be looking for on an ongoing basis? Or have we risen to a new baseload rate per car on phosphates?

Donald, this is Clarence. What we're going to do on the phosphate business is price to the market, what the market demand is, so the more demand, the better we price, and it will seed rail inflation.

So is it more seasonal? Have we reached a new base?

I think we have reached a new base.

Very good. Congrats on that, guys. I will let someone else ask a question.

Thanks.

The next question is from Carter Leake with Davenport and Company.

Good morning, Carter.

Good morning. So that was my minutia question, so I just have one, and it is if you could break out the 30 million tons in 2010 by Mobile/Hampton Roads in Baltimore. Just rough percentages.

Let's see here. 50% at Newport News. 25% at Baltimore. And 25% at Mobile.

Great. Thank you.

Our final question comes from Peter Nesvold with Jefferies.

Good morning, Peter.

I'm the caboose, all right.

All right. Well, we don't have cabooses anymore.

Right, exactly. So most of my questions have been answered but maybe on weather, you cited weather in 4Q but you didn't really quantify the impact and just curious how is January trending relative to 4Q overall?

Well, January started very strongly from a service standpoint. As we came through the new year. And we had the early two weeks were a couple of our better weeks, and going back, for a pretty good long period of time and I am sure you will see that in the measurements. We have, over about the last week or so, seen quite a significant impact from weather again, very frigid cold in the Northeast, especially up in our Albany division. We've had snow across the Southeast, and in a number of places. So, I mean, that's what we do every year, it is an outdoor sport, as we say. We weather the storms, so we know over time, we are going to return to that high level that we started the year with, and consistently across the first quarter, we will see a good level of service performance. And we're focused on that, we have the resources it takes to make sure that happens. And most of all, we've got the most committed people to serve our customers safely. And they're out there right now doing everything they need to do to keep the service at the highest level it can be at.

The other thing I would add, Peter, as well, is obviously turning three weeks into the year, but so far, despite that weather we're seeing strong demand pretty much across all markets.

And it looked like your velocity was holding up pretty well in the first two weeks. So I guess I can read across from that?

Correct. I mean Clarence mentioned coal velocity, coal velocity is still in our higher range, and we're really working hard to maintain it there. And even despite the weather, our team is out in the coal field areas are pretty good just keeping things running at a high capacity, at a high rate so we can meet that additional volume that needs to go to export.

Okay. Last question then. I think you said you are you down to 11,000 cars in storage. What is the mix of that car storage looking like? And for instance if you do get 25%-type growth in export coal, do you have enough coal cars within your current network in order to handle that type of growth?

Some of those cars, about 600, are coal cars that are in storage that we could bring out. Plus we're out in the open market now looking at some. And we've got new cars in the coal side of the business that are coming in, in June. We have some auto racks still in storage. We have some 52-foot scrap cars still in storage. Lots of center beam lumber cars in storage. And a few bulkhead flats in storage. What we don't have is covered hoppers. What we don't have is covered coals.

Got you. Excellent.

Thank you, Peter, and thanks, everyone, for joining in our call today. We appreciate your interest.

And this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation in today's call. You may disconnect your lines.